Many thanks to Habs Eyes on the Prize for linking up the video of Trevor Timmins discussing the recent NHL draft. To read a transcript, this interview is as dull and uninformative as they come. but that's hardly the point. In the way he answers questions and to watch his body language, this Timmins interview is interesting and revealing.
Showing posts with label Timmins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Timmins. Show all posts
Friday, July 12, 2013
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Rudderless
Habs Drift Into April Without GM
So it's happened, the axe has fallen and the Canadiens have relieved Pierre Gauthier of his duties.
The criticism about strange timing is strange in itself. Who cares? The team has nothing left to play for and the GM had nothing left to do. Better that a lame duck be replaced than not.
The team will be rudderless (especially if you consider it's Molson in charge) for the next few days and then will hopefully be applying all their effort to finding excellent personnel to fill the important role of GM and whatever else is left open by a shuffle.
As the surprise move shows, no one really has any idea on how and when the Canadiens might act in this search. As such, I thought I'd provide open speculation on all the candidates for the GM job that I could think of before my fingers got tired.
Key people within the organization
Bob Gainey
Needs no introduction. He ceded the reins before for lack of passion/interest/whatever, but then never really left the team. Not sure how active he has been in his advisor role, but in terms of hockey people within the upper echelon of the organization's structure, he's top at this point. I don't think his return would be well received this time, however, so my prediction is that if he remains it will be in the shadows.
Trevor Timmins
Montreal fans are notoriously demanding and continue to rue every draft pick that goes wrong. All this despite the fact, the Habs have been pretty much the best by a few measures of drafting since Timmins was brought in. There's more to being a GM than drafting and scouting. What's more, it may not be wise to mess with a successful formula just because he's the most deserving candidate at first glance.
Frank Jay
This guy is reputed to be a talented scout, and so he should stay. He's got experience and could probably pull off the job. Like Timmins, I like him in a full scouting role if he's the star his backers say he is, because the Habs are in a rebuild.
Larry Carriere
He benefits from a few key points on his resume. First, he's new and so not associated or in anyway responsible for the more disastrous moves (Gomez) the organization has made recently. Second, he's been a GM (briefly) and an assistant GM in Buffalo. Third, he can communicate to both streams of media. He's not a sexy choice given his association with the recent coaching of the team. But we're not suggesting he be considered for the coaching job.
Patrick Boivin
Nepotism. How much of it figured in this hiring? I really know nothing of this guy other than he had a father with clout. He's currently occupying a top-level role with the team, so he's worth a mention.
Key people outside the organization
Jacques Martin
Former coach. Former GM. "Speaks" French and English. Knows hockey. He's on all the lists for sure. But again, he may not exactly represent a sexy choice or a departure from the stagnant old ways of doing things. Personally, I think the way he thinks about hockey is right and suits this group of players. I'd accept this choice.
Pierre McGuire
Someone help us. If you want to know what happens when someone spends more energy concerning himself with public image than team composition, look no further than the GM of the team with the longest playoffless and Cupless streak in the league. McGuire strikes me as the same type of person. He is stubborn in arguing his point of view to the point that it seems to get all consuming. I'm not sure a GM in a city with a million opinions will find the time to do much team building when defending his positions night and day.
Jim Nill
This is Detroit's next in line. What he would bring might be an instant improvement in the way the team looks at development. If Timmins got some development gurus to work with, the team might take off. I don't know if Nill fits the bill, but he'd surely know some people to hire.
Pierre Lacroix
On the list of Quebecois who sued to be GMs. I don't look at Lacroix's record with the same rose-glasses as many others do. He inherited a team poised to be champions and he didn't mess it up. Kudos for taking advantage of a green GM trading a superstar goalie, but otherwise show me why he's up to building challenge.
Julien BriseBois
The team's former capologist is a hot candidate. But this isn't about capology, and this isn't Hamilton or Tampa we're talking about. It may make more sense to bring him back into the fold in a slightly more sheltered role.
Serge Savard
In retrospect, our complaints about Savard were a bit like our complaints about Timmins. A spoiled group of fans unwilling to accept that 15 more teams meant less frequent Cups. Savard was a good GM. Sure he made bad moves, but evidence might show he was less than free to do otherwise (Corey). The real question with Serge is why would he want to take this on? He certainly knows what the job entails.
Marc Bergevin
If you want to believe Bruce Garrioch (from which day, you say?), then Marc Bergevin is a candadate here. He's a Quebecois holding an assistant GM post on a success story, so I guess he just connected the same dots we all did. But he's very fresh to the assistant GM role, so I wonder why he'd even be ahead of BriseBois.
Don Maloney
This one's from me. Look Phoenix is done as a hockey destination, aren't they? The man who built the groundwork of a perennial challenger from basically nothing should be mooving to the province one way or the other. As an ambitious young GM, why wouldn't his ears perk up with the news of an opening? There are manay reasons why he wouldn't be the right candidate, but anyone that can egt David Rundblad for Kyle Turris has a fan in me. Perhaps competition from Edmonton here though.
Chuck Fletcher
Another one from me. I don't know if he's in trouble with the Wild. They probably aren't too thrilled with their standing either. Either way, Current GMs are free to explore their opportunities aren't they? Maybe not. Anyway, my point being he is a Montrealer, in charge of scouting for Anaheim in the much ballyhooed draft of 2003 where they were clear winners, apprenticed in Pittsburgh under Shero. He's got pedigree.
Vincent Damphousse
This one is making the rounds. Credibility from being a union rep? I hope not. I mean if he's to be judged from his on air opinions, I'd be afraid of the future with him at the rudder.
Patrick Roy
Oh the romanticism. Not sure what qualifies him to be a GM, but it'd be fun to hear a trade going down between Roy and Burke wouldn't it? He's a proven winner, for sure. But would he cede enough responsibility to the right people as a GM must?
Key requirements
We talk about people. But this opportunity really allows for the team to seek out candidates (known or unknown to them) who fill the characteristics they now recognize have been missing for years:
Expertise in pro scouting
Come on, it's about time someone that knows NHL talent when he sees it has some clout.
Expertise in development
Someone that can hire the right people and oversee a more efficient farm system. Maybe one that doesn't sap the life out of goalscorers before they lace up in Montreal?
Willingness to work
The Habs have suffered greatly because of the throw-away player attitude they have taken. The next GM will be a star if he can take the Mike Ribeiros he picks and outlasts the immature months.
This should be some fun guys. Go Oilers Go.
The criticism about strange timing is strange in itself. Who cares? The team has nothing left to play for and the GM had nothing left to do. Better that a lame duck be replaced than not.
The team will be rudderless (especially if you consider it's Molson in charge) for the next few days and then will hopefully be applying all their effort to finding excellent personnel to fill the important role of GM and whatever else is left open by a shuffle.
As the surprise move shows, no one really has any idea on how and when the Canadiens might act in this search. As such, I thought I'd provide open speculation on all the candidates for the GM job that I could think of before my fingers got tired.
Key people within the organization
Bob Gainey
Needs no introduction. He ceded the reins before for lack of passion/interest/whatever, but then never really left the team. Not sure how active he has been in his advisor role, but in terms of hockey people within the upper echelon of the organization's structure, he's top at this point. I don't think his return would be well received this time, however, so my prediction is that if he remains it will be in the shadows.
Trevor Timmins
Montreal fans are notoriously demanding and continue to rue every draft pick that goes wrong. All this despite the fact, the Habs have been pretty much the best by a few measures of drafting since Timmins was brought in. There's more to being a GM than drafting and scouting. What's more, it may not be wise to mess with a successful formula just because he's the most deserving candidate at first glance.
Frank Jay
This guy is reputed to be a talented scout, and so he should stay. He's got experience and could probably pull off the job. Like Timmins, I like him in a full scouting role if he's the star his backers say he is, because the Habs are in a rebuild.
Larry Carriere
He benefits from a few key points on his resume. First, he's new and so not associated or in anyway responsible for the more disastrous moves (Gomez) the organization has made recently. Second, he's been a GM (briefly) and an assistant GM in Buffalo. Third, he can communicate to both streams of media. He's not a sexy choice given his association with the recent coaching of the team. But we're not suggesting he be considered for the coaching job.
Patrick Boivin
Nepotism. How much of it figured in this hiring? I really know nothing of this guy other than he had a father with clout. He's currently occupying a top-level role with the team, so he's worth a mention.
Key people outside the organization
Jacques Martin
Former coach. Former GM. "Speaks" French and English. Knows hockey. He's on all the lists for sure. But again, he may not exactly represent a sexy choice or a departure from the stagnant old ways of doing things. Personally, I think the way he thinks about hockey is right and suits this group of players. I'd accept this choice.
Pierre McGuire
Someone help us. If you want to know what happens when someone spends more energy concerning himself with public image than team composition, look no further than the GM of the team with the longest playoffless and Cupless streak in the league. McGuire strikes me as the same type of person. He is stubborn in arguing his point of view to the point that it seems to get all consuming. I'm not sure a GM in a city with a million opinions will find the time to do much team building when defending his positions night and day.
Jim Nill
This is Detroit's next in line. What he would bring might be an instant improvement in the way the team looks at development. If Timmins got some development gurus to work with, the team might take off. I don't know if Nill fits the bill, but he'd surely know some people to hire.
Pierre Lacroix
On the list of Quebecois who sued to be GMs. I don't look at Lacroix's record with the same rose-glasses as many others do. He inherited a team poised to be champions and he didn't mess it up. Kudos for taking advantage of a green GM trading a superstar goalie, but otherwise show me why he's up to building challenge.
Julien BriseBois
The team's former capologist is a hot candidate. But this isn't about capology, and this isn't Hamilton or Tampa we're talking about. It may make more sense to bring him back into the fold in a slightly more sheltered role.
Serge Savard
In retrospect, our complaints about Savard were a bit like our complaints about Timmins. A spoiled group of fans unwilling to accept that 15 more teams meant less frequent Cups. Savard was a good GM. Sure he made bad moves, but evidence might show he was less than free to do otherwise (Corey). The real question with Serge is why would he want to take this on? He certainly knows what the job entails.
Marc Bergevin
If you want to believe Bruce Garrioch (from which day, you say?), then Marc Bergevin is a candadate here. He's a Quebecois holding an assistant GM post on a success story, so I guess he just connected the same dots we all did. But he's very fresh to the assistant GM role, so I wonder why he'd even be ahead of BriseBois.
Don Maloney
This one's from me. Look Phoenix is done as a hockey destination, aren't they? The man who built the groundwork of a perennial challenger from basically nothing should be mooving to the province one way or the other. As an ambitious young GM, why wouldn't his ears perk up with the news of an opening? There are manay reasons why he wouldn't be the right candidate, but anyone that can egt David Rundblad for Kyle Turris has a fan in me. Perhaps competition from Edmonton here though.
Chuck Fletcher
Another one from me. I don't know if he's in trouble with the Wild. They probably aren't too thrilled with their standing either. Either way, Current GMs are free to explore their opportunities aren't they? Maybe not. Anyway, my point being he is a Montrealer, in charge of scouting for Anaheim in the much ballyhooed draft of 2003 where they were clear winners, apprenticed in Pittsburgh under Shero. He's got pedigree.
Vincent Damphousse
This one is making the rounds. Credibility from being a union rep? I hope not. I mean if he's to be judged from his on air opinions, I'd be afraid of the future with him at the rudder.
Patrick Roy
Oh the romanticism. Not sure what qualifies him to be a GM, but it'd be fun to hear a trade going down between Roy and Burke wouldn't it? He's a proven winner, for sure. But would he cede enough responsibility to the right people as a GM must?
Key requirements
We talk about people. But this opportunity really allows for the team to seek out candidates (known or unknown to them) who fill the characteristics they now recognize have been missing for years:
Expertise in pro scouting
Come on, it's about time someone that knows NHL talent when he sees it has some clout.
Expertise in development
Someone that can hire the right people and oversee a more efficient farm system. Maybe one that doesn't sap the life out of goalscorers before they lace up in Montreal?
Willingness to work
The Habs have suffered greatly because of the throw-away player attitude they have taken. The next GM will be a star if he can take the Mike Ribeiros he picks and outlasts the immature months.
This should be some fun guys. Go Oilers Go.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Draft Pick Love
During the regular season all fan energy is geared to just making the playoffs. 82 games of ups and downs culminate in what amounts to two weeks of nail biting for all but 3 teams at the top and bottom. The lucky 8 make it through and experience brief elation and short relief.
The playoffs take more energy. Game 1 and Game 2 hold huge hope and anticipation no matter the results. Anyone can win in the playoffs, the mantra repeated. Game 3 and onwards things get serio9us. Elimination looms, progression attainable. The fan channels energy into every facet of the game.
In a short but very intense moment of the NHL calendar, every blocked shot, every dressing room visit, every post-game quote is taken for full analysis (and not just in Montreal). This period is all-consuming. Thoughts seldom stray to other topics, it's team all day.
But then it ends. One way or another it ends. For 15 teams, the end is abrupt and dissatisfying. Seldom do fans have more than 40 minutes to morph from undying belief to total disbelief. The energy that was generated, nurtured, stored is left without direction.
The lucky fan can dissipate it all with a single fist to wall rendez-vous. Some can transfer it all, miraculously celebrating victory every year in different stripes. Those of us that are so accursed to attach everything to one group of 23 are left with adrenaline to burn and plenty of time and space in which to do it.
The NHL entry draft
Enter the NHL entry draft, a shopping excursion for NHL teams during which scouting departments pick whole generations of hockey players clean to the bone over a single weekend.
For the unsatiated fan the entry draft provides. It provides those topsy turvy moments where worst is first and playoff vanquished are in the driver's seat.
If I remember back to a time when there was no internet and the team I followed largely left their fans with ample achievement in their bellies come June, I remember being one of a few who followed the draft. Certainly one of a few who could list the picks in later rounds.
Through a combination of pent up glory-envy and the creation of means for release of this playoff stored energy, the following for such academic interests has grown exponentially. Nowadays it seems that draft day and the days that precede it are some of the busiest days of the year for a blog like this one. Nowadays, it seems like there is as much excitement in hearing the "right" name called on a June afternoon as there is on hearing the goal siren on a cold November evening. The fervent fan of hockey games transformed into the fervent fan of hockey operations.
In a hockey game, the glasses fitted for the team one supports allows for lopsided views to become reason. Each goal for a thing of beauty, each goal against a grievous error, each penalty for an unlucky misfire, each penalty against a revelation of justice.
I am beginning to see these glasses creep into the world of hockey operations fandom. While other teams can make errors donning their silly logoed shirts, the "porteurs du Saintte Flanelle" are a thing of grace even in the offseason.
How else to explain the sudden rush of support that is bestowed on each and every name called on the day of drafting, no matter how little we knew of the 17 year olds they were a minute before?
How else to explain the gulf of affection that lies between newly added 20 year-olds and those whose names we spent summers studying up on?
My theory is exactly that. That fans with that excess of hockey-allotted energy stored from May (or April) spend it throughout a summer. With little otherwise to spend it on other than qualifying offers and stories of gym routines, those 6-10 newly adorned sweaters from mid-June take the lion's share. The hours that would be spent reading about Lars Eller's ankle wrapping in early May are channeled into hockey databases and scouting reports and reviews of those hockey operations additions.
And I think there are varying levels of energy too. I mentioned the lucky ones who can turn off in May and turn on in October. Grades must then range from people who have a few days left of itch to months worth. Those with little begin and end most likely with the Nathan Beaulieus of the world, while the next tiers spend their reserves on rounds next until they realise summer just happened.
I am hardly amazed then that each first round draft pick of the storied Montreal Canadiens instantly becomes hero. I am hardly surprised that after only a few weeks, each unknown darts to the top of lists of organizational successes.
Intriguing to me still though is how enduring this love is. How even in the face of scrutiny and trials and comparisons to peers nearly each and every first rounder maintains an aura that will be carried for years. Intriguing how one decision made in June (that probably could have gone any one of 10 different directions) is deemed right and good.
You'll know if you follow this blog that I have been a bit down recently on Jarred Tinordi. In fact, I am starting to feel like a lone critic some of the time and made to feel almost traitorous for my words. Jarred, you see was taken as the Canadiens first pick in he 2010 draft which shortly followed the exhilarating run and highly disappointing end to that season. It seems I have touched a nerve perhaps too soon. Perhaps because Jarred is (or has to be) the good that came from that season without a Cup (again).
I don't pretend to know which way is right. The fact I can let go of the hope I had for the 2010 draft just like the hope of coming back against Pronger's smothering Philadelphia might just make me lucky. Perhaps I am wrong to even wish to let go of the little nugget we picked out of the river of the 2010 season. Maybe I'm the hockey operations fan equivalent of the guy who gets his beer during the period to skip the lineups.
I don't know. All I know is first round picks is not yet on the level of missed calls for me. I probably have decades of pent-up energy left for how wrong the refs got it on Doug Gilmour's broken glass penalty. Nathan Bealieu? you have maybe 5 months...
The playoffs take more energy. Game 1 and Game 2 hold huge hope and anticipation no matter the results. Anyone can win in the playoffs, the mantra repeated. Game 3 and onwards things get serio9us. Elimination looms, progression attainable. The fan channels energy into every facet of the game.
In a short but very intense moment of the NHL calendar, every blocked shot, every dressing room visit, every post-game quote is taken for full analysis (and not just in Montreal). This period is all-consuming. Thoughts seldom stray to other topics, it's team all day.
But then it ends. One way or another it ends. For 15 teams, the end is abrupt and dissatisfying. Seldom do fans have more than 40 minutes to morph from undying belief to total disbelief. The energy that was generated, nurtured, stored is left without direction.
The lucky fan can dissipate it all with a single fist to wall rendez-vous. Some can transfer it all, miraculously celebrating victory every year in different stripes. Those of us that are so accursed to attach everything to one group of 23 are left with adrenaline to burn and plenty of time and space in which to do it.
The NHL entry draft
Enter the NHL entry draft, a shopping excursion for NHL teams during which scouting departments pick whole generations of hockey players clean to the bone over a single weekend.
For the unsatiated fan the entry draft provides. It provides those topsy turvy moments where worst is first and playoff vanquished are in the driver's seat.
If I remember back to a time when there was no internet and the team I followed largely left their fans with ample achievement in their bellies come June, I remember being one of a few who followed the draft. Certainly one of a few who could list the picks in later rounds.
Through a combination of pent up glory-envy and the creation of means for release of this playoff stored energy, the following for such academic interests has grown exponentially. Nowadays it seems that draft day and the days that precede it are some of the busiest days of the year for a blog like this one. Nowadays, it seems like there is as much excitement in hearing the "right" name called on a June afternoon as there is on hearing the goal siren on a cold November evening. The fervent fan of hockey games transformed into the fervent fan of hockey operations.
In a hockey game, the glasses fitted for the team one supports allows for lopsided views to become reason. Each goal for a thing of beauty, each goal against a grievous error, each penalty for an unlucky misfire, each penalty against a revelation of justice.
I am beginning to see these glasses creep into the world of hockey operations fandom. While other teams can make errors donning their silly logoed shirts, the "porteurs du Saintte Flanelle" are a thing of grace even in the offseason.
How else to explain the sudden rush of support that is bestowed on each and every name called on the day of drafting, no matter how little we knew of the 17 year olds they were a minute before?
How else to explain the gulf of affection that lies between newly added 20 year-olds and those whose names we spent summers studying up on?
My theory is exactly that. That fans with that excess of hockey-allotted energy stored from May (or April) spend it throughout a summer. With little otherwise to spend it on other than qualifying offers and stories of gym routines, those 6-10 newly adorned sweaters from mid-June take the lion's share. The hours that would be spent reading about Lars Eller's ankle wrapping in early May are channeled into hockey databases and scouting reports and reviews of those hockey operations additions.
And I think there are varying levels of energy too. I mentioned the lucky ones who can turn off in May and turn on in October. Grades must then range from people who have a few days left of itch to months worth. Those with little begin and end most likely with the Nathan Beaulieus of the world, while the next tiers spend their reserves on rounds next until they realise summer just happened.
I am hardly amazed then that each first round draft pick of the storied Montreal Canadiens instantly becomes hero. I am hardly surprised that after only a few weeks, each unknown darts to the top of lists of organizational successes.
Intriguing to me still though is how enduring this love is. How even in the face of scrutiny and trials and comparisons to peers nearly each and every first rounder maintains an aura that will be carried for years. Intriguing how one decision made in June (that probably could have gone any one of 10 different directions) is deemed right and good.
You'll know if you follow this blog that I have been a bit down recently on Jarred Tinordi. In fact, I am starting to feel like a lone critic some of the time and made to feel almost traitorous for my words. Jarred, you see was taken as the Canadiens first pick in he 2010 draft which shortly followed the exhilarating run and highly disappointing end to that season. It seems I have touched a nerve perhaps too soon. Perhaps because Jarred is (or has to be) the good that came from that season without a Cup (again).
I don't pretend to know which way is right. The fact I can let go of the hope I had for the 2010 draft just like the hope of coming back against Pronger's smothering Philadelphia might just make me lucky. Perhaps I am wrong to even wish to let go of the little nugget we picked out of the river of the 2010 season. Maybe I'm the hockey operations fan equivalent of the guy who gets his beer during the period to skip the lineups.
I don't know. All I know is first round picks is not yet on the level of missed calls for me. I probably have decades of pent-up energy left for how wrong the refs got it on Doug Gilmour's broken glass penalty. Nathan Bealieu? you have maybe 5 months...
Sunday, January 02, 2011
Habs in the Noughties
Ten High Points
This December 31st marks the end of the first decade of the new millennium -- the Noughties according to the English, to reflect all the noughts (or zeroes) in the dates.
For the Habs fan, the decade began most inauspiciously. On New year's Day 2001, Canadiens fans were recovering from their Millennium parties while sitting last in the entire NHL after New Year's Eve. The record was 10-23-4-2 and Therrien wasn't bringing any of the usual boost that a new coach sometimes brings. The team was on its way to its worst season since the 1940s.
But there was light for Canadiens fans. Houle was gone and the repairs were beginning in earnest to the havoc he had wreaked over his tenure.
As we stand here 10 years on, it would be fair to say a lot of the damage has been patched. The team has been in the playoffs for 5 of the last 6 seasons. They have been both a conference finalist, a frequent playoff round winner and an Eastern champion. A roster that on a cold January day once sported Aaron Asham, Craig Darby, Chad Kilger, Eric Landry, Juha Lind, Gino Odjick and Patrick Poulin all at the same time has improved. There have been trophies, and trophy finalists and All-Stars (legitimate ones too).
The decade's had its moments. Here are the best ten for me:
10. 2003 Heritage Classic
The original outdoor game, and the re-acquaintance with the alumni game. It was a treat for Habs and Oilers fans alike and set off a trend that the rest of the league would follow. The Habs won, which also helped its aura.
9. Sale to the Molsons
I'm certain that in other lists like the the financial crisis of 2008 would rank as one of the biggest stories of the decade. The Canadiens never faced a true crisis, but might have been bitten had their over-leveraged owner not chosen to sell this asset first from his portfolio. It was a benefit to the team, we'll probably never know exactly how big.
8. 2009 Centennial Game
The Centennial was built up for so long and geared to deliver for a couple of years through ceremony and extra merch possibilities. If nothing else had happened but Patrick Roy skating out onto the ice in his Canadiens uniform and full gear to face shots, I don't think many would have minded. December 4, 2009 was a magical night and even ended with a magical win over the Bruins.
7. Draft Lottery 2005
The Canadiens drafted Carey Price 5th overall in 2005. The Canadiens weren't due the 5th overall pick - more like the usual 18th. The lottery in 2005, following the lockout was a great boon for the Canadiens as they vied for Sidney Crosby (or rather their lottery balls did). I vividly remember sitting there listening to the radio after pick 11 had been drawn. Destiny seemed to be in the cards as the Canadiens repeatedly weren't called. Finally, pick #5, with a tinge of disappointment, but a later recognition of great luck, was granted. The draft which followed shortly after was resumption of hockey talk beyond law and salary, full of trade intrigue and player back-and-forth. it was a high point without a successful pick. With a successful pick, even higher.
6. Mike Cammalleri signing
Would anyone ever sign with the Habs? Rafalski, Hull, Shanahan? All the stars available always seemed to go elsewhere (usually Detroit). For the fan of a team wanting (and now needing) to rebuild via the free agent route, it was a question that constantly nagged. Cammalleri was one of the best forwards available in 2009. Young, proven and certainly a star. The minute I heard he signed withe the team, i thought what a coup. The fact that it precipitated the Maple Leafs to self-destruct later in trade form, obviously only makes it better in retrospect.
5. 2004 Playoff comeback
3-1 down against the strong Bruins. A Kovalev trade that was supposed to help wasn't. The season was heading for the tubes. On a dime it turned. From playoff goat in Game #4 (Souray's obstacle as he wringed his hand in pain), Kovy turned on the jets for the very first time and it was pure magic to watch for 3 games. The fact I was there for Game #6 to take in the euphoria was something I'll not likely forget.
4. Trevor Timmins hiring
In practical terms, this was perhaps the team's biggest turning point. The Habs had never been the worst team for scouting, but they were certainly a bit haphazard. Timmins seemed to change that. Since he's been on board, it's not been uncommon to talk about depth and about a strong farm system. Though the team waits for a superstar to fall from one of his picks, that's something that requires help from the ghosts. Since his hiring the team has been playoff material with homegrown core elements. A definite high point to say that after the late 1990s.
3. 2010 Playoff run
Last year's playoffs were absolutely great. We've come to believe that making the playoffs is a chance to won the Cup. But perhaps after a whipping in 2009 we wondered if were spoiled to expect that ever again. Enter Jaroslav Halak and Martin's new Canadiens. The team threatened to lose to better opponents nearly every night yet battled hard with timely offense and some sensational penalty killing and goaltending
2. Jose Theodore's February, March and April, 2002
This was breaking the hex in a big way. From middling mid-1990s to putrid turn of the century teams, the Habs needed a statement. That statement came in the form of a goaltender who just refused to lose. Theodore's spring of 2002 won him the Vezina and the Hart trophy. it won the Canadiens a playoff berth and a playoff upset round. it won the Habs fans their mojo back.
1. Koivu's comeback
During Theodore's incredible run, Saku Koivu was quietly working out readying himself for a return from his chemotherapy-induced layoff. From weakened and vulnerable Koivu in late fall, he was fully rebuilt in body and mind by April 2002. news of his return was magical enough. The return itself was unforgettable. I'm grateful that I somehow had the presence of mind to buy up some late seaosn tickets that year in hope of attending, as we scored a winning ticket to attend the game. A whole stadium of people rarely rains down their full affection in simultaneous fashion on a single person. on this night, they did. Koivu stood there and soaked it in. He would take that affection and turn it into inspired play over the next weeks. He was incredible in playoff action. His legend was solidified.
Honourable mention: Conference Champion's Run, 2008
Like the Conference Championship for the team, I don't give this the credit it deserves. If you consider for a moment that the team plays 6 months of hockey for points in the standings and then 2 weeks vs. the same team in the playoffs, it's stunning there aren't any banners for President's trophies and now that the Conference is 15-teams large, Conference Championships. The run to win was as good as any playoff series win, without the gratification that survival provides. Carey price was excellent, and for those with long memories - Kovalev was outstanding.
Blogs were less prevalent in 2001, this one wasn't conceived, i can assure you. But I did find one amateur account of the beginning of the decade. It's fun read.
For the Habs fan, the decade began most inauspiciously. On New year's Day 2001, Canadiens fans were recovering from their Millennium parties while sitting last in the entire NHL after New Year's Eve. The record was 10-23-4-2 and Therrien wasn't bringing any of the usual boost that a new coach sometimes brings. The team was on its way to its worst season since the 1940s.
But there was light for Canadiens fans. Houle was gone and the repairs were beginning in earnest to the havoc he had wreaked over his tenure.
As we stand here 10 years on, it would be fair to say a lot of the damage has been patched. The team has been in the playoffs for 5 of the last 6 seasons. They have been both a conference finalist, a frequent playoff round winner and an Eastern champion. A roster that on a cold January day once sported Aaron Asham, Craig Darby, Chad Kilger, Eric Landry, Juha Lind, Gino Odjick and Patrick Poulin all at the same time has improved. There have been trophies, and trophy finalists and All-Stars (legitimate ones too).
The decade's had its moments. Here are the best ten for me:
10. 2003 Heritage Classic
The original outdoor game, and the re-acquaintance with the alumni game. It was a treat for Habs and Oilers fans alike and set off a trend that the rest of the league would follow. The Habs won, which also helped its aura.
9. Sale to the Molsons
I'm certain that in other lists like the the financial crisis of 2008 would rank as one of the biggest stories of the decade. The Canadiens never faced a true crisis, but might have been bitten had their over-leveraged owner not chosen to sell this asset first from his portfolio. It was a benefit to the team, we'll probably never know exactly how big.
8. 2009 Centennial Game
The Centennial was built up for so long and geared to deliver for a couple of years through ceremony and extra merch possibilities. If nothing else had happened but Patrick Roy skating out onto the ice in his Canadiens uniform and full gear to face shots, I don't think many would have minded. December 4, 2009 was a magical night and even ended with a magical win over the Bruins.
7. Draft Lottery 2005
The Canadiens drafted Carey Price 5th overall in 2005. The Canadiens weren't due the 5th overall pick - more like the usual 18th. The lottery in 2005, following the lockout was a great boon for the Canadiens as they vied for Sidney Crosby (or rather their lottery balls did). I vividly remember sitting there listening to the radio after pick 11 had been drawn. Destiny seemed to be in the cards as the Canadiens repeatedly weren't called. Finally, pick #5, with a tinge of disappointment, but a later recognition of great luck, was granted. The draft which followed shortly after was resumption of hockey talk beyond law and salary, full of trade intrigue and player back-and-forth. it was a high point without a successful pick. With a successful pick, even higher.
6. Mike Cammalleri signing
Would anyone ever sign with the Habs? Rafalski, Hull, Shanahan? All the stars available always seemed to go elsewhere (usually Detroit). For the fan of a team wanting (and now needing) to rebuild via the free agent route, it was a question that constantly nagged. Cammalleri was one of the best forwards available in 2009. Young, proven and certainly a star. The minute I heard he signed withe the team, i thought what a coup. The fact that it precipitated the Maple Leafs to self-destruct later in trade form, obviously only makes it better in retrospect.
5. 2004 Playoff comeback
3-1 down against the strong Bruins. A Kovalev trade that was supposed to help wasn't. The season was heading for the tubes. On a dime it turned. From playoff goat in Game #4 (Souray's obstacle as he wringed his hand in pain), Kovy turned on the jets for the very first time and it was pure magic to watch for 3 games. The fact I was there for Game #6 to take in the euphoria was something I'll not likely forget.
4. Trevor Timmins hiring
In practical terms, this was perhaps the team's biggest turning point. The Habs had never been the worst team for scouting, but they were certainly a bit haphazard. Timmins seemed to change that. Since he's been on board, it's not been uncommon to talk about depth and about a strong farm system. Though the team waits for a superstar to fall from one of his picks, that's something that requires help from the ghosts. Since his hiring the team has been playoff material with homegrown core elements. A definite high point to say that after the late 1990s.
3. 2010 Playoff run
Last year's playoffs were absolutely great. We've come to believe that making the playoffs is a chance to won the Cup. But perhaps after a whipping in 2009 we wondered if were spoiled to expect that ever again. Enter Jaroslav Halak and Martin's new Canadiens. The team threatened to lose to better opponents nearly every night yet battled hard with timely offense and some sensational penalty killing and goaltending
2. Jose Theodore's February, March and April, 2002
This was breaking the hex in a big way. From middling mid-1990s to putrid turn of the century teams, the Habs needed a statement. That statement came in the form of a goaltender who just refused to lose. Theodore's spring of 2002 won him the Vezina and the Hart trophy. it won the Canadiens a playoff berth and a playoff upset round. it won the Habs fans their mojo back.
1. Koivu's comeback
During Theodore's incredible run, Saku Koivu was quietly working out readying himself for a return from his chemotherapy-induced layoff. From weakened and vulnerable Koivu in late fall, he was fully rebuilt in body and mind by April 2002. news of his return was magical enough. The return itself was unforgettable. I'm grateful that I somehow had the presence of mind to buy up some late seaosn tickets that year in hope of attending, as we scored a winning ticket to attend the game. A whole stadium of people rarely rains down their full affection in simultaneous fashion on a single person. on this night, they did. Koivu stood there and soaked it in. He would take that affection and turn it into inspired play over the next weeks. He was incredible in playoff action. His legend was solidified.
Honourable mention: Conference Champion's Run, 2008
Like the Conference Championship for the team, I don't give this the credit it deserves. If you consider for a moment that the team plays 6 months of hockey for points in the standings and then 2 weeks vs. the same team in the playoffs, it's stunning there aren't any banners for President's trophies and now that the Conference is 15-teams large, Conference Championships. The run to win was as good as any playoff series win, without the gratification that survival provides. Carey price was excellent, and for those with long memories - Kovalev was outstanding.
Blogs were less prevalent in 2001, this one wasn't conceived, i can assure you. But I did find one amateur account of the beginning of the decade. It's fun read.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Pre-Draft Considerations
The NHL daft is tomorrow and the Canadiens, despite their best efforts to trade a slew of picks lately, still have some picking to do. As such, we’ll watch with mild interest as Timmins and his staff already put out to gardening leave select youngsters.
I’m looking through lists to tell you what I think. But until then, some general thoughts worth considering with regard to the draft:
Size still dazzles
I’ll admit it, you just can’t teach size. The problem in judging 18 year-olds is that you can never tell if they’ll be gentle giants or feisty midgets when faced with pro opposition (think Gionta vs. Pouliot). Yet size still dazzles a scout. But where one or two big guys will no doubt make creditable NHL careers from their selection, it seems to me many big first rounders also find “German hockey” far too quickly.
There’s a threshold between guy who has scored and goalscorer
I’m not exactly sure what it is, but there’s definitely a difference between a guy who happened to score goals in junior and a player with a true talent for it. Be wary of the 20-goal man with alleged incredible hands, as there’s more to goalscoring than hands (isn’t that right Andrei?). At a certain point though, scouting ceases to matter though. Just because a scout can’t put a finger on why a guy has scored 40 goals shouldn’t discourage people from taking a chance.
American defencemen are terribly overrated as a group
Always lining up an impressive group with size and apparent skill, the American Ds are often among the more prominent flops. It’s worth considering that big American D prospects are nothing new and that the US National team still doesn’t have a good defensive group t choose from. It may not be coincidence.
Swedish forwards underrated this year
On the opposite side of the coin, when have you known a Swedish generation to be totally bereft of know-how up front. Despite the perennial snub from the prognosticators (with the exception of the love in last year), the Swedish forwards probably deserve more respect than they get. Many, for example could do just as well as in the QMJHL if they cared for poutine over smoked herring.
Quebeckers play in a strange league
Picking Quebecois players is more difficult than pickng Western teens because they play in a league that is worlds apart from the NHL. People will always be wary of the Daigle scenario. But not to be ignored is the phenomenon that seems to be the Quebecois role player. Picking them out from the crowd, though. I’m glad I’m not charged with that task.
Everyone is compared to a successful NHLer
It must be human nature to look for the best possible scenario because there are always a lot of future Scott Stevens, Mark Recchis and Bryan Trottiers. The reality is, these comparisons have been bandied about for years on end. In fact, it might be useful to compile a database of what being the next Scott Stevens actually means for a prospect – that is, he’ll actually have a 98% chance of being the next Brent Bilodeau.
Trading up is probably a mistake
Scouting departments should take a good look in the mirror before trading up. Of course, there’s always the chance of getting caught up in the excitement of the day, but trading up means trading one gamble for another. It often means trading 2 or 3 gambles for one. Odds tell us that after pick 5-8 goes by, volume is the better strategy.
Organizational needs won’t be the same by the time the selected start playing pro
One never knows what surprises are around the corner for an organization. One year you have the Vezina, Hart goaltender of the future, a couple of years and no goalie picks later, you’re icing David Aebischer in crucial games. OK, it’s not the best example as Price and Halak were coming through, but you understand. Picking for organizational balance at a single draft is not my favourite tactic unless the cupboard is absolutely (and I mean Heino-Lindberg) bare. Instead pick the best players always and fill the cupboard the other 363 days of the year.
I’m looking through lists to tell you what I think. But until then, some general thoughts worth considering with regard to the draft:
Size still dazzles
I’ll admit it, you just can’t teach size. The problem in judging 18 year-olds is that you can never tell if they’ll be gentle giants or feisty midgets when faced with pro opposition (think Gionta vs. Pouliot). Yet size still dazzles a scout. But where one or two big guys will no doubt make creditable NHL careers from their selection, it seems to me many big first rounders also find “German hockey” far too quickly.
There’s a threshold between guy who has scored and goalscorer
I’m not exactly sure what it is, but there’s definitely a difference between a guy who happened to score goals in junior and a player with a true talent for it. Be wary of the 20-goal man with alleged incredible hands, as there’s more to goalscoring than hands (isn’t that right Andrei?). At a certain point though, scouting ceases to matter though. Just because a scout can’t put a finger on why a guy has scored 40 goals shouldn’t discourage people from taking a chance.
American defencemen are terribly overrated as a group
Always lining up an impressive group with size and apparent skill, the American Ds are often among the more prominent flops. It’s worth considering that big American D prospects are nothing new and that the US National team still doesn’t have a good defensive group t choose from. It may not be coincidence.
Swedish forwards underrated this year
On the opposite side of the coin, when have you known a Swedish generation to be totally bereft of know-how up front. Despite the perennial snub from the prognosticators (with the exception of the love in last year), the Swedish forwards probably deserve more respect than they get. Many, for example could do just as well as in the QMJHL if they cared for poutine over smoked herring.
Quebeckers play in a strange league
Picking Quebecois players is more difficult than pickng Western teens because they play in a league that is worlds apart from the NHL. People will always be wary of the Daigle scenario. But not to be ignored is the phenomenon that seems to be the Quebecois role player. Picking them out from the crowd, though. I’m glad I’m not charged with that task.
Everyone is compared to a successful NHLer
It must be human nature to look for the best possible scenario because there are always a lot of future Scott Stevens, Mark Recchis and Bryan Trottiers. The reality is, these comparisons have been bandied about for years on end. In fact, it might be useful to compile a database of what being the next Scott Stevens actually means for a prospect – that is, he’ll actually have a 98% chance of being the next Brent Bilodeau.
Trading up is probably a mistake
Scouting departments should take a good look in the mirror before trading up. Of course, there’s always the chance of getting caught up in the excitement of the day, but trading up means trading one gamble for another. It often means trading 2 or 3 gambles for one. Odds tell us that after pick 5-8 goes by, volume is the better strategy.
Organizational needs won’t be the same by the time the selected start playing pro
One never knows what surprises are around the corner for an organization. One year you have the Vezina, Hart goaltender of the future, a couple of years and no goalie picks later, you’re icing David Aebischer in crucial games. OK, it’s not the best example as Price and Halak were coming through, but you understand. Picking for organizational balance at a single draft is not my favourite tactic unless the cupboard is absolutely (and I mean Heino-Lindberg) bare. Instead pick the best players always and fill the cupboard the other 363 days of the year.
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
Don't Call Us, We'll Call You
The Other Players The Canadiens Have Parted Ways With
Kovalev, Komisarek and Higgins gone. Tanguay and Koivu, probably not coming back. And the supporting cast of Brisebois, Bouillon, Dandenault, Lang and Kostopoulos also unlikely to return.
This is what you knew. But it didn't end there. There are also plenty of players that never stepped on the ice for the Montreal Canadiens – ones we thought and hoped might have a chance – that have been quietly loosed behind all the fanfare.
After a quick look at this year's development camp invitees and a quick crosscheck with last year's list, I identify 5 names that the Canadiens have likely bid adieu and one other that may be on his way soon.
1. Ryan McDonagh
We all know what happened to Ryan. While some media instantly jumped to the conclusion that Ryan must have been slowing in his development, Timmins has now come and corrected that view. Trevor was actually very complimentary about the Badger player, but stated the obvious for those who missed it:
2. Thomas Beauregard
I have to admit, I was hot on Beauregard as late as last autumn (proof here). While he is not gone for certain, he is an unsigned free agent of the Hamilton Bulldogs. And, I think it is notable that he is not invited to this camp.
The Canadiens were probably right to take a chance on the prolific little winger in 2007 after his 124-point campaign in the QMJHL. And they were surely pleased with his progression after last season – one that ended with a championship in Cincinnati and 9 playoff goals. But in the never-ending whirlpool that is AHL hockey, players must be evaluated quickly to stick with or make room for prospects coming through. In Thomas' case, it seems the Canadiens have seen enough to know he may not ever be NHL material. It is a shame for him, but he'd be well-advised to stick with it.
3. Philippe Paquet
Who? Well exactly. He's been on the lists for ages now (drafted in 2005). But last September, I reckoned he was the very last man on the depth chart for the Habs on D. Since that time, it's fair to say that several even younger players have leapfrogged him, while he sits steadfastly last in line.
Like Beauregard, he's not officially off the cards for Montreal. But no invite, advancing age and the fact that he's done his 4 years at University mean it's likely the end of the road. It is a shame when you imagine what the 6'3" defender from Quebec City could have meant to the Canadiens. However, one can't force a player to develop as his high school coaches (and NHL scouts) envisioned. He provides a cautionary tale about how leaving player development to various US university staffs across the continent, while it sounds sensible, is quite a gamble.
4. JP Testwuide
JP was invited to last year's rookie camp as a try-out. Originally from George Gillett's hometown of Vail (tough life), teammate of Brock Trotter (and Paul Stastny) and a brother on the team, he still has loads of reasons to be here.
But the Habs did not have to issue an awkward goodbye to the young defenceman as he signed away that privilege by joining the Houston Aeros last spring.
In my opinion, he did the right thing, since, as a repeat try-out, on a team with depth at his position and no other, probably would have to have done more than double his penalty minutes in college to crack this camp. His brother Mike, a bigger, younger and more positionally-in-demand player, will have to keep the Vail fires strong all on his own this year.
Every year the Canadiens have a combine ahead of the general NHL combine to get a sneaky look at the talent in their own backyard. It's a good idea that has borne some fruit, but none has yet ripened into an NHL player or even a tradeable asset.
Alexandre Monahan followed this very avenue to his NHL window. After a strong 38-goal 2007-08 with Victoriaville he got a well-deserved invitation to development camp 2008. Although his 2008-09 campaign wasn't poor, it seems that it didn't merit a call back from the Habs. Perhaps not surprising given this review from last season:
Again, it's a shame that Monahan didn't crack the nut, but in not doing so, he has in effect left a place for the next generation to have a go. In fact, if you're keeping track, there are more QMJHL try-outs this year than last. Erik Boisvert is back for a second shot and it seems Philippe Lefebvre has taken Monahan's place.
6. Nicklas Torp
The final omission from this year's development camp was pesky Swedish defenceman Niklas Torp. It is unclear what the situation is with Torp, and it may be that his explanation is innocent enough – didn't want to travel.
As a prospect, Torp probably still figures in the Canadiens wider plans. He certainly still appears on the relevant websites. To me, he is interesting since he distinguishes himself from our other defensive prospects (especially now that Valentenko is gone for good) with reviews like this:
To me, that puts him firmly in the running for a future 5th/6th defenceman role, something that perhaps Weber, Carle or Subban would be wasted at, or that others may hopefully be too good and well paid to place there.
Apart from those 6 who made one camp but not the next, there are others. Some prospects fade into the ether (Heino-Lindberg). Others flee North America (Yannick Lehoux). And we may yet say good bye to others we know, since Hamilton's ranks have not be set for the season and free agents remain there as well – Aubin, Denis, Latendresse (O), Flinn, Kemp, Steve Gainey and Loic Lacasse.
As this camp grows and grows, there will inevitably be more players to say goodbye to year on year. While it is regrettable that we had to part, one can only say that many of them will still look back and have the memory that most of you and I don't have – that of donning the Montreal Canadiens sweater for real. Not something to sneeze at.
Those that are there
I specifically focused on the players that wouldn't be at camp this year because I was looking to fill a little niche. For one thing, I am not going to camp nor able to watch on TV so will have little to offer over those that are. Also, I've been writing about big club issues while others have treated the stories of players to be at camp thoroughly enough already.
Incidentally, if you want to read more about the development camp and the players that the Canadiens are still developing, a nice place to start is Robert L's excellent compilation of links on every player there. As for progress at the camp, scrimmage results and other minutiae (I can't believe it never occurred to me to take time off work to attend) all the normal media channels, including some of the blogs I list in the right hand column.
At a glance, the players that look quite interesting to me on the list are the two Swedes (Johansson and Engqvist), the Quebec goalie with the 22-5-0 record (Gabriel Girard) and the American tryouts Hunter Bishop and Ryan O'Byrne 2.0 (Brandon Nash).
This is what you knew. But it didn't end there. There are also plenty of players that never stepped on the ice for the Montreal Canadiens – ones we thought and hoped might have a chance – that have been quietly loosed behind all the fanfare.
After a quick look at this year's development camp invitees and a quick crosscheck with last year's list, I identify 5 names that the Canadiens have likely bid adieu and one other that may be on his way soon.
1. Ryan McDonagh
We all know what happened to Ryan. While some media instantly jumped to the conclusion that Ryan must have been slowing in his development, Timmins has now come and corrected that view. Trevor was actually very complimentary about the Badger player, but stated the obvious for those who missed it:
"What people don't seem to understand is that in order to get something you have to give something. Obviously [McDonagh]'s the piece of the puzzle that was needed."
2. Thomas Beauregard
I have to admit, I was hot on Beauregard as late as last autumn (proof here). While he is not gone for certain, he is an unsigned free agent of the Hamilton Bulldogs. And, I think it is notable that he is not invited to this camp.
The Canadiens were probably right to take a chance on the prolific little winger in 2007 after his 124-point campaign in the QMJHL. And they were surely pleased with his progression after last season – one that ended with a championship in Cincinnati and 9 playoff goals. But in the never-ending whirlpool that is AHL hockey, players must be evaluated quickly to stick with or make room for prospects coming through. In Thomas' case, it seems the Canadiens have seen enough to know he may not ever be NHL material. It is a shame for him, but he'd be well-advised to stick with it.
3. Philippe Paquet
Who? Well exactly. He's been on the lists for ages now (drafted in 2005). But last September, I reckoned he was the very last man on the depth chart for the Habs on D. Since that time, it's fair to say that several even younger players have leapfrogged him, while he sits steadfastly last in line.
Like Beauregard, he's not officially off the cards for Montreal. But no invite, advancing age and the fact that he's done his 4 years at University mean it's likely the end of the road. It is a shame when you imagine what the 6'3" defender from Quebec City could have meant to the Canadiens. However, one can't force a player to develop as his high school coaches (and NHL scouts) envisioned. He provides a cautionary tale about how leaving player development to various US university staffs across the continent, while it sounds sensible, is quite a gamble.
4. JP Testwuide
JP was invited to last year's rookie camp as a try-out. Originally from George Gillett's hometown of Vail (tough life), teammate of Brock Trotter (and Paul Stastny) and a brother on the team, he still has loads of reasons to be here.
But the Habs did not have to issue an awkward goodbye to the young defenceman as he signed away that privilege by joining the Houston Aeros last spring.
In my opinion, he did the right thing, since, as a repeat try-out, on a team with depth at his position and no other, probably would have to have done more than double his penalty minutes in college to crack this camp. His brother Mike, a bigger, younger and more positionally-in-demand player, will have to keep the Vail fires strong all on his own this year.
5. Alexandre Monahan
Every year the Canadiens have a combine ahead of the general NHL combine to get a sneaky look at the talent in their own backyard. It's a good idea that has borne some fruit, but none has yet ripened into an NHL player or even a tradeable asset.
Alexandre Monahan followed this very avenue to his NHL window. After a strong 38-goal 2007-08 with Victoriaville he got a well-deserved invitation to development camp 2008. Although his 2008-09 campaign wasn't poor, it seems that it didn't merit a call back from the Habs. Perhaps not surprising given this review from last season:
"Alexandre Monahan is an average skater and didn't really stand-out in the crowd which is something a try-out player has to do."
Again, it's a shame that Monahan didn't crack the nut, but in not doing so, he has in effect left a place for the next generation to have a go. In fact, if you're keeping track, there are more QMJHL try-outs this year than last. Erik Boisvert is back for a second shot and it seems Philippe Lefebvre has taken Monahan's place.
6. Nicklas Torp
The final omission from this year's development camp was pesky Swedish defenceman Niklas Torp. It is unclear what the situation is with Torp, and it may be that his explanation is innocent enough – didn't want to travel.
As a prospect, Torp probably still figures in the Canadiens wider plans. He certainly still appears on the relevant websites. To me, he is interesting since he distinguishes himself from our other defensive prospects (especially now that Valentenko is gone for good) with reviews like this:
"As a player, he stands out with his physical and aggressive play. He has good timing in his hits and loves to deliver a good check when given the opportunity. He plays somewhat dirty at times and agitates the opposing players frequently.
To me, that puts him firmly in the running for a future 5th/6th defenceman role, something that perhaps Weber, Carle or Subban would be wasted at, or that others may hopefully be too good and well paid to place there.
Apart from those 6 who made one camp but not the next, there are others. Some prospects fade into the ether (Heino-Lindberg). Others flee North America (Yannick Lehoux). And we may yet say good bye to others we know, since Hamilton's ranks have not be set for the season and free agents remain there as well – Aubin, Denis, Latendresse (O), Flinn, Kemp, Steve Gainey and Loic Lacasse.
As this camp grows and grows, there will inevitably be more players to say goodbye to year on year. While it is regrettable that we had to part, one can only say that many of them will still look back and have the memory that most of you and I don't have – that of donning the Montreal Canadiens sweater for real. Not something to sneeze at.
Those that are there
I specifically focused on the players that wouldn't be at camp this year because I was looking to fill a little niche. For one thing, I am not going to camp nor able to watch on TV so will have little to offer over those that are. Also, I've been writing about big club issues while others have treated the stories of players to be at camp thoroughly enough already.
Incidentally, if you want to read more about the development camp and the players that the Canadiens are still developing, a nice place to start is Robert L's excellent compilation of links on every player there. As for progress at the camp, scrimmage results and other minutiae (I can't believe it never occurred to me to take time off work to attend) all the normal media channels, including some of the blogs I list in the right hand column.
At a glance, the players that look quite interesting to me on the list are the two Swedes (Johansson and Engqvist), the Quebec goalie with the 22-5-0 record (Gabriel Girard) and the American tryouts Hunter Bishop and Ryan O'Byrne 2.0 (Brandon Nash).
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Gainey Gets His Centre
Like the rest of you, I had a bit of trouble getting to grips with this trade at first. I mean, at first glance, it goes against conventional wisdom – and on several levels.
It is at once adding an overpaid player and a long-term contract in a time where flexibility is being touted everywhere. It also puts in place a #1 centre who is no bigger than Saku Koivu, thereby either blocking, or certainly reducing the chances of installing someone really big. Finally, I suppose the timing. It does really smack of a move that could have been made after Gainey tried his luck with the UFAs.
A good night's sleep has me thinking a little differently this morning.
Trade reports were misleading
The first we heard of the trade was Higgins for Gomez. Fair enough. But later it came out that it was Higgins, McDonagh, Valentenko and Janik for Gomez and others.
Psychologically this was bruising. Higgins for Gomez at first sounds great, though there's anxiety about the salary. But McDonagh as a throw-in reeks of Rejean Houle, and Valentenko to top it off.
My rest has given me new perspective. First of all, I think realistically this trade was McDonagh for Gomez, or at best McDonagh and Higgins. For their part Janik and Valentenko were already nothing to me. They were never to play for the Canadiens, so trade chips for the league, they might as well be. But just switching Higgins to the throw-in, from McDonagh puts it all in a new light for me. It's hot prospect for top centre. Fine. Throw in a winger who can be replaced by almost any number of the draft picks we've made from the last 5 years (since he's no longer a talented top-liner).
Trade in full
Perspective renewed, I looked again. I even bothered to check what the other two guys have done and why Gainey might have been interested in them instead of just fretting at losing a Russian I liked.
There's no doubt from anyone here that the best player in the trade is Scott Gomez. If Sam Pollock was evaluating the trade, he might say that Montreal won on the basis of that fact alone. Luckily for Sam he didn't have to weigh up for salary eaten.
Seriously though, Montreal did alright here. Gomez is a top-line player, and though Pyatt and Busto haven't an NHL game between them, there's reason enough to believe at least one of them will one day.
Tom Pyatt for his part wasn't a standout in his draft year so fell. But despite his small stature, he managed to cobble an excellent 40+ goal season in the OHL 2 years ago to go with 2 WJC gold medals for Canada. Two team Canada appearances alone show there's something to him. I wouldn't be that surprised if he replaces Higgins outright – after all what's 11 goals and 12 assists?
Michael Busto is a lower leaguer, so written off in a flash. But was he selected or was he a throw away? The simple fact that he played for the Kootenay Ice in 2006-07 tells me that he was hand-picked by the Habs, simply because they will have watched that team quite a bit scouting Ben Maxwell and Ryan Russell. In some ways, I see this then as a bonus draft pick. He's a big enough defenceman who could conceivably one day play in the league. It's as good as Janik, and realistically better than Valentenko. Not a bad upgrade.
The Canadiens for their part gave up less than our initial emotional outpouring suggests, I think. I mean look at it from the Rangers point of view. Sure, they're happy about ditching a $7.3 million salary so they can waste all the cap room by the end of today on another Roszival, but take the salary aspect away and it's a different picture.
First, they get Ryan McDonagh who at this point can't be called anything more than a prospect. No offense to Ryan, but how does one expect him to be the next Chris Chelios when it's debatable whether he's even a top 3 defender on his own team, let alone the league. And it's not like Wisconsin were the top team in the league. Add to that the fact that Markov is a fixture in Montreal, Gorges has progressed and Weber and Subban have easily leapfrogged him in the pecking order, McDonagh was not value enough to fetch a Gomez.
Chris Higgins of course is a known quantity for Canadiens fans. But this season, I think was a little closer to the truth than Chris might like to admit. To say we were surprised when he notched 22 goals as a rookie would be an understatement. Nothing in his past suggested he could or would do that. He solidified his reputation as a twenty goal threat the next two seasons, with 23 and 27, but to go to thirty? It's a stretch. Ironically, the only way Higgins might do that is with a supreme passing talent like Gomez, since he needs open nets on most nights, usually 3 or 4 per goal. Seeing as his unreliability with the finish probably meant his career path now reads 3rd/4th liner, where's the harm in losing him? After all, as we know, 3rd/4th liners are truly the only commodity that one can pick up with any success in this league. Losing Higgins for the Habs means creating a place that a Hamilton player can fill almost right away. For the Rangers, picking up Higgins means they get a lot of energy and a bit of hope.
Finally, Valentenko and Janik. Valentenko is likely in Russia for good now, since he's too good in his own mind to take a tryout at this point, yet not good enough in the eyes of NHL execs to get guaranteed money. Why the Rangers wanted him, I'm not sure. one to watch. Janik, the forgotten man, was never going to play in Montreal. He failed a tryout where all he had to do was outplay O'Byrne.
Salary balance
I can't convince you or myself that we're better off with salary today than we were yesterday. The Gomez salary is horrendous. It is, however, about par for the course for top players who've received a contract in the past 3 seasons. It is worse than say Sundin, Richards, Briere, Richards and any other number of top centres.
I will also suggest that Gainey is reshuffling his salary so that players are paid in the old-fashioned top-heavy way. Getting rid of Higgins (the potentially $3 million 3rd liner), Bouillon and Dandenault ($2 million spares) is the indication for me. We should know more by the weekend.
For another thing, Gainey must surely know by today that salary flexibility isn't all it's cracked up to be. Nor will it be next year, in all likelihood. I wouldn't say you want to fill your cap up with overpayment, but it seems having loads to spend on July 1 is a false promise, to say the least. Might as well gamble with a player instead of gambling with bargaining power again.
Saku Koivu
The hardest aspect of this trade to take is the chance that Saku Koivu might have been replaced with a younger and heavier version. Gomez, from all accounts is a bit of a Koivu with his tenacity, his playoff performance and his incredible passing vision.
Many fans are visibly upset that we have gone for the Koivu "upgrade". But unlike me, it's not because they are sad to lose Saku (RDS poll showed that).
I think many fans presumed that the small skillful centre era was coming to an end. I think most fans deemed that era to be a failure. Personally, I'm glad Gainey is not so closed-minded as that. And, frankly, I think blaming Koivu for the lack of Stanley Cup parades even over the last 5 years is wholly unfair. In fact, if there were one thing I'd take from these last ten years of Koivu, it's that the whole big centre myth is a bit bogus. Someone competitive, given wingers with enough talent to bury a chance (see not Higgins) is what you need. After all it was Briere/Richards to beat the Canadiens one year and Savard/Krejci the next. Datsyuk's been to the Stanley Cup final in both years, Joe Thornton never got a sniff.
So sadness then? Koivu's gone?
Well he ain't gone yet. And, depending on the results of today's efforts, he may not be gone for this season either. I've seen others who agree that Gomez, Koivu, Plekanec would be nice. I think so too. I also think the possibility of future trades is there either way too.
Obviously I had a good sleep. As I can see from comments all around, many of you didn't. I wish you a better day and a sleep just like mine after the fireworks have gone off this evening so that you can start to see something positive in supporting this team (with Gomez at the helm) for the next 9+ months.
Happy Canada Day all.
It is at once adding an overpaid player and a long-term contract in a time where flexibility is being touted everywhere. It also puts in place a #1 centre who is no bigger than Saku Koivu, thereby either blocking, or certainly reducing the chances of installing someone really big. Finally, I suppose the timing. It does really smack of a move that could have been made after Gainey tried his luck with the UFAs.
A good night's sleep has me thinking a little differently this morning.
Trade reports were misleading
The first we heard of the trade was Higgins for Gomez. Fair enough. But later it came out that it was Higgins, McDonagh, Valentenko and Janik for Gomez and others.
Psychologically this was bruising. Higgins for Gomez at first sounds great, though there's anxiety about the salary. But McDonagh as a throw-in reeks of Rejean Houle, and Valentenko to top it off.
My rest has given me new perspective. First of all, I think realistically this trade was McDonagh for Gomez, or at best McDonagh and Higgins. For their part Janik and Valentenko were already nothing to me. They were never to play for the Canadiens, so trade chips for the league, they might as well be. But just switching Higgins to the throw-in, from McDonagh puts it all in a new light for me. It's hot prospect for top centre. Fine. Throw in a winger who can be replaced by almost any number of the draft picks we've made from the last 5 years (since he's no longer a talented top-liner).
Trade in full
Perspective renewed, I looked again. I even bothered to check what the other two guys have done and why Gainey might have been interested in them instead of just fretting at losing a Russian I liked.
There's no doubt from anyone here that the best player in the trade is Scott Gomez. If Sam Pollock was evaluating the trade, he might say that Montreal won on the basis of that fact alone. Luckily for Sam he didn't have to weigh up for salary eaten.
Seriously though, Montreal did alright here. Gomez is a top-line player, and though Pyatt and Busto haven't an NHL game between them, there's reason enough to believe at least one of them will one day.
Tom Pyatt for his part wasn't a standout in his draft year so fell. But despite his small stature, he managed to cobble an excellent 40+ goal season in the OHL 2 years ago to go with 2 WJC gold medals for Canada. Two team Canada appearances alone show there's something to him. I wouldn't be that surprised if he replaces Higgins outright – after all what's 11 goals and 12 assists?
Michael Busto is a lower leaguer, so written off in a flash. But was he selected or was he a throw away? The simple fact that he played for the Kootenay Ice in 2006-07 tells me that he was hand-picked by the Habs, simply because they will have watched that team quite a bit scouting Ben Maxwell and Ryan Russell. In some ways, I see this then as a bonus draft pick. He's a big enough defenceman who could conceivably one day play in the league. It's as good as Janik, and realistically better than Valentenko. Not a bad upgrade.
The Canadiens for their part gave up less than our initial emotional outpouring suggests, I think. I mean look at it from the Rangers point of view. Sure, they're happy about ditching a $7.3 million salary so they can waste all the cap room by the end of today on another Roszival, but take the salary aspect away and it's a different picture.
First, they get Ryan McDonagh who at this point can't be called anything more than a prospect. No offense to Ryan, but how does one expect him to be the next Chris Chelios when it's debatable whether he's even a top 3 defender on his own team, let alone the league. And it's not like Wisconsin were the top team in the league. Add to that the fact that Markov is a fixture in Montreal, Gorges has progressed and Weber and Subban have easily leapfrogged him in the pecking order, McDonagh was not value enough to fetch a Gomez.
Chris Higgins of course is a known quantity for Canadiens fans. But this season, I think was a little closer to the truth than Chris might like to admit. To say we were surprised when he notched 22 goals as a rookie would be an understatement. Nothing in his past suggested he could or would do that. He solidified his reputation as a twenty goal threat the next two seasons, with 23 and 27, but to go to thirty? It's a stretch. Ironically, the only way Higgins might do that is with a supreme passing talent like Gomez, since he needs open nets on most nights, usually 3 or 4 per goal. Seeing as his unreliability with the finish probably meant his career path now reads 3rd/4th liner, where's the harm in losing him? After all, as we know, 3rd/4th liners are truly the only commodity that one can pick up with any success in this league. Losing Higgins for the Habs means creating a place that a Hamilton player can fill almost right away. For the Rangers, picking up Higgins means they get a lot of energy and a bit of hope.
Finally, Valentenko and Janik. Valentenko is likely in Russia for good now, since he's too good in his own mind to take a tryout at this point, yet not good enough in the eyes of NHL execs to get guaranteed money. Why the Rangers wanted him, I'm not sure. one to watch. Janik, the forgotten man, was never going to play in Montreal. He failed a tryout where all he had to do was outplay O'Byrne.
Salary balance
I can't convince you or myself that we're better off with salary today than we were yesterday. The Gomez salary is horrendous. It is, however, about par for the course for top players who've received a contract in the past 3 seasons. It is worse than say Sundin, Richards, Briere, Richards and any other number of top centres.
I will also suggest that Gainey is reshuffling his salary so that players are paid in the old-fashioned top-heavy way. Getting rid of Higgins (the potentially $3 million 3rd liner), Bouillon and Dandenault ($2 million spares) is the indication for me. We should know more by the weekend.
For another thing, Gainey must surely know by today that salary flexibility isn't all it's cracked up to be. Nor will it be next year, in all likelihood. I wouldn't say you want to fill your cap up with overpayment, but it seems having loads to spend on July 1 is a false promise, to say the least. Might as well gamble with a player instead of gambling with bargaining power again.
Saku Koivu
The hardest aspect of this trade to take is the chance that Saku Koivu might have been replaced with a younger and heavier version. Gomez, from all accounts is a bit of a Koivu with his tenacity, his playoff performance and his incredible passing vision.
Many fans are visibly upset that we have gone for the Koivu "upgrade". But unlike me, it's not because they are sad to lose Saku (RDS poll showed that).
I think many fans presumed that the small skillful centre era was coming to an end. I think most fans deemed that era to be a failure. Personally, I'm glad Gainey is not so closed-minded as that. And, frankly, I think blaming Koivu for the lack of Stanley Cup parades even over the last 5 years is wholly unfair. In fact, if there were one thing I'd take from these last ten years of Koivu, it's that the whole big centre myth is a bit bogus. Someone competitive, given wingers with enough talent to bury a chance (see not Higgins) is what you need. After all it was Briere/Richards to beat the Canadiens one year and Savard/Krejci the next. Datsyuk's been to the Stanley Cup final in both years, Joe Thornton never got a sniff.
So sadness then? Koivu's gone?
Well he ain't gone yet. And, depending on the results of today's efforts, he may not be gone for this season either. I've seen others who agree that Gomez, Koivu, Plekanec would be nice. I think so too. I also think the possibility of future trades is there either way too.
Obviously I had a good sleep. As I can see from comments all around, many of you didn't. I wish you a better day and a sleep just like mine after the fireworks have gone off this evening so that you can start to see something positive in supporting this team (with Gomez at the helm) for the next 9+ months.
Happy Canada Day all.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Draft Week
Later Round Names To Watch
A new phrase I've adopted from Down Goes Brown among others about the draft last night: Ctrl+V.
Most picks looked like they were taken straight from TSN's website. All that is, except Brian Burke who selected someone who's odds on to be the bust of the top 10 at the moment - someone has to be.
Last night was so boring to witness on TV, I can only thank my stars I didn't win the fight with the wife to actually attend. Strangely, I think today would be a better affair. For one thing, the Canadiens have six picks and are not hamstrung to take a native anymore. What's more, without the mass media spying on all the scouts, and Brian Burke unplugged might actually be conducive to trading.
We'll see. I'm not going to follow live, but will be happy to make do with the old fashioned report after the event. Before it all starts though, i thought I'd give a few thoughts on names and picks I'd like the Habs to consider (in case you get a chance to sneak a read Trevor, Bob).
Names that have dropped
Inevitably some names expected to be called in the first round have dropped into the second round. Now the Canadiens don't yet have a second round pick, but nothing stops them from trading if they think a player has dropped much further than they expected and they'd like to get in on the action. So, I thought I'd recap some of those names just in case.
The most important names haven't changed for me and they are Jeremy Morin, Landon Ferraro, Richard Panik and Toni Rajala. I previewed them all here for the 18th pick, so, obviously I think they'd be great pick-ups from this point.
3rd round and beyond
Now you'll remember that I'm a believer in the best asset available model of draft selection (a term I telepathically borrowed from Timmins or vice versa). As it comes to the late rounds of the draft, sticking to that policy is just as important as the first round.
As far as the Canadiens go, I think there are a few places they need to look for assets. All the names I chose were based on these characteristics:
1) A player or two from Quebec
Unique to the Canadiens. Due to their particular circumstances, it seems to me that it will be worth more to them to draft in these players to a) avoid a decade-long media sulk and b) to avoid having to overpay for these players later (see Dandenault). The Canadiens will probably always look to start 6-7 players from Quebec at a minimum, so it is certainly an asset to be able to have choice from within. We've already added Masse and Leblanc, so one more may suffice.
2) A goaltender
This draft pick will not himself be the asset. But it's as clear as mud that Halak is one of our most valuable trading pieces. At the moment we are not free to trade him because our depth is so shallow in goal. The Canadiens must and will pick a goalie so that organizationally they can make a trading chip. The goalie might as well be good, no?
3) Scoring forwards
This is back to the rarest commodity, pure and simple. Swing for the fence on every spare pick on a scoring forward, as far as I'm concerned. You'll never get a star like Datsyuk or Zetterberg in the late rounds if you keep picking USHL defenders in those spots. We're due a steal. We need a steal to jump to contender level.
On that note, here are the names:
Eric Gelinas, D, QMJHL -- my pick among the QMJHL defenders. At worst a giant Bouillon. At best another Desjardins. We started Brisebois in more than 50 games...
Charles Olivier Roussel, D, QMJHL -- doesn't sound like he'll drop far. The Hockey Writers say Shea Weber II. I doubt he'll be around, but if he is...
Benjamin Casavant, F, QMJHL -- Guillaume Latendresse with feeling behind the hits? 39 goals and 80 points in the Q was a very good show.
Mike Hoffman, F, QMJHL -- a little more Drummondville magic couldn't hurt, especially if we nab their coach (played with Masse some of the time). Late bloomer, but that doesn't matter to us anymore.
Ben Hanowski, F, Minn HS -- set all kinds of records for scoring in Minny, and apparently has character. If we miss Morin, I'd look here.
Alex Hutchings, F, OHL -- 34 goals and 34 assists in the OHL. Tavares had 58 and he's some kind of generational talent. Might be worth checking this Barrie Colt out.
Alexander Avtsyn, F, Russia -- 56 goals in Russia's second league. The scouts say intriguing -- really guys? Those stats are rare and should garner a look. Sure he might prefer the sunny climes of the Caucasus, but what's the harm in trying for the big Slava Kozlov option?
Andrej Stastny, F, Slovakia -- Like Avtsyn it was crazy numbers in a lower league. But I still like that better than knowing, something like 10 goals in the OHL, for example. Not many late steals to come from overmined Canada and Sweden this year, that's why underappreciated Eastern Europe is the odds on producer.
Alexander Fallstrom, F, Minn HS -- Great season at Sidney's old haunt, and is committed to play at Harvard (w Louis?). If you want in on the Swedish, he's the hidden gem.
Mikko Koskinen, G, Finland -- mature, crazy stats (albeit one season), worth a chance if he's around on that second third rounder.
Olivier Roy, G, QMJHL -- shouldn't be available, but two birds with one stone is a good move if within reach.
Taylor Doherty, D, WHL -- 6'6" and growing. Chara is the rarest of assets. to get a guy of that size who might play in a later round would be a coup. That's why I went out of my asset boxes here. Under 6'5" though, forget that.
Most picks looked like they were taken straight from TSN's website. All that is, except Brian Burke who selected someone who's odds on to be the bust of the top 10 at the moment - someone has to be.
Last night was so boring to witness on TV, I can only thank my stars I didn't win the fight with the wife to actually attend. Strangely, I think today would be a better affair. For one thing, the Canadiens have six picks and are not hamstrung to take a native anymore. What's more, without the mass media spying on all the scouts, and Brian Burke unplugged might actually be conducive to trading.
We'll see. I'm not going to follow live, but will be happy to make do with the old fashioned report after the event. Before it all starts though, i thought I'd give a few thoughts on names and picks I'd like the Habs to consider (in case you get a chance to sneak a read Trevor, Bob).
Names that have dropped
Inevitably some names expected to be called in the first round have dropped into the second round. Now the Canadiens don't yet have a second round pick, but nothing stops them from trading if they think a player has dropped much further than they expected and they'd like to get in on the action. So, I thought I'd recap some of those names just in case.
The most important names haven't changed for me and they are Jeremy Morin, Landon Ferraro, Richard Panik and Toni Rajala. I previewed them all here for the 18th pick, so, obviously I think they'd be great pick-ups from this point.
3rd round and beyond
Now you'll remember that I'm a believer in the best asset available model of draft selection (a term I telepathically borrowed from Timmins or vice versa). As it comes to the late rounds of the draft, sticking to that policy is just as important as the first round.
As far as the Canadiens go, I think there are a few places they need to look for assets. All the names I chose were based on these characteristics:
1) A player or two from Quebec
Unique to the Canadiens. Due to their particular circumstances, it seems to me that it will be worth more to them to draft in these players to a) avoid a decade-long media sulk and b) to avoid having to overpay for these players later (see Dandenault). The Canadiens will probably always look to start 6-7 players from Quebec at a minimum, so it is certainly an asset to be able to have choice from within. We've already added Masse and Leblanc, so one more may suffice.
2) A goaltender
This draft pick will not himself be the asset. But it's as clear as mud that Halak is one of our most valuable trading pieces. At the moment we are not free to trade him because our depth is so shallow in goal. The Canadiens must and will pick a goalie so that organizationally they can make a trading chip. The goalie might as well be good, no?
3) Scoring forwards
This is back to the rarest commodity, pure and simple. Swing for the fence on every spare pick on a scoring forward, as far as I'm concerned. You'll never get a star like Datsyuk or Zetterberg in the late rounds if you keep picking USHL defenders in those spots. We're due a steal. We need a steal to jump to contender level.
On that note, here are the names:
Eric Gelinas, D, QMJHL -- my pick among the QMJHL defenders. At worst a giant Bouillon. At best another Desjardins. We started Brisebois in more than 50 games...
Charles Olivier Roussel, D, QMJHL -- doesn't sound like he'll drop far. The Hockey Writers say Shea Weber II. I doubt he'll be around, but if he is...
Benjamin Casavant, F, QMJHL -- Guillaume Latendresse with feeling behind the hits? 39 goals and 80 points in the Q was a very good show.
Mike Hoffman, F, QMJHL -- a little more Drummondville magic couldn't hurt, especially if we nab their coach (played with Masse some of the time). Late bloomer, but that doesn't matter to us anymore.
Ben Hanowski, F, Minn HS -- set all kinds of records for scoring in Minny, and apparently has character. If we miss Morin, I'd look here.
Alex Hutchings, F, OHL -- 34 goals and 34 assists in the OHL. Tavares had 58 and he's some kind of generational talent. Might be worth checking this Barrie Colt out.
Alexander Avtsyn, F, Russia -- 56 goals in Russia's second league. The scouts say intriguing -- really guys? Those stats are rare and should garner a look. Sure he might prefer the sunny climes of the Caucasus, but what's the harm in trying for the big Slava Kozlov option?
Andrej Stastny, F, Slovakia -- Like Avtsyn it was crazy numbers in a lower league. But I still like that better than knowing, something like 10 goals in the OHL, for example. Not many late steals to come from overmined Canada and Sweden this year, that's why underappreciated Eastern Europe is the odds on producer.
Alexander Fallstrom, F, Minn HS -- Great season at Sidney's old haunt, and is committed to play at Harvard (w Louis?). If you want in on the Swedish, he's the hidden gem.
Mikko Koskinen, G, Finland -- mature, crazy stats (albeit one season), worth a chance if he's around on that second third rounder.
Olivier Roy, G, QMJHL -- shouldn't be available, but two birds with one stone is a good move if within reach.
Taylor Doherty, D, WHL -- 6'6" and growing. Chara is the rarest of assets. to get a guy of that size who might play in a later round would be a coup. That's why I went out of my asset boxes here. Under 6'5" though, forget that.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Best Asset Available
Does Timmins read LIW?
You tell me. All I know is that he seems to have come up with a new term: "Best asset available" (audio)
Search "best asset available NHL" on google and see what you see. Perhaps Trev took a little gander at NHL draft theory and noticed good sense when he saw it.
All the more reason for me to get that 2nd round wish list out, eh?
Anyway, enough self-aggrandizing. I didn't invent the term, or the concept. Furthermore, I hope Timmins didn't get his ideas from this or any blog. If he's been skiving on the internet at this his busiest time (only busy time?) of the year would mean big trouble for the team.
Still, it'd be nice if he took Morin...
You tell me. All I know is that he seems to have come up with a new term: "Best asset available" (audio)
Search "best asset available NHL" on google and see what you see. Perhaps Trev took a little gander at NHL draft theory and noticed good sense when he saw it.
All the more reason for me to get that 2nd round wish list out, eh?
Anyway, enough self-aggrandizing. I didn't invent the term, or the concept. Furthermore, I hope Timmins didn't get his ideas from this or any blog. If he's been skiving on the internet at this his busiest time (only busy time?) of the year would mean big trouble for the team.
Still, it'd be nice if he took Morin...
Covering The Draft From The Comforts Of Home
I think I must be the only Canadiens blogger I know not going to the Bell Centre in person for the draft. That doesn't mean I won't have plenty to say.
Though I'd love to be sipping overpriced Molson/Coors products in the stands, I actually think I'll be handier with the comments from my own living room. For one thing, I won't be forsaking the internet and, for another, I won't have to delete all the characters created by the impression of my forehead as I nod off during the inevitable boredom that is 30 people holding 10 minute discussions over 18 year olds.
If you want the live and authentic touch though (and feel no shame in shunning me, why would you?) then you should check out one of the equally excellent blogs that are:
The Daily Hab-It and Eyes On The Prize
Both Arpon and Robert will be there with full credentials (I hope that means cheaper beer?) and providing updates as the night wears, I mean rolls, on. As usual, if you prefer, you can just peek at the right-hand bar and see what they've updated with, as LIW shows that automatically now anyway...
Defining night
I had written momentous, but that would be making an assumption wouldn't it. One thing I am sure of, however, is that this night will give us a feeling of where this team is going for the next 5 years.
For one thing, we should find out whether Lecavalier will ever be a Montreal Canadien. We'll also find out if Bob Gainey still has the ability to make a good trade like he did way back when for Zubov. We'll discover if the Canadiens feel they need to nab one of the exceptional crop that is the top 8 in this draft class, and we'll find out how important the Habs feel the lack of scoring talent in the system is.
Should be fun.
18 and out
As for myself, I'll be hanging in with the anti-social Friday night TV (so says my wife) until the Canadiens selection at 18 or whenever that may be. Though it would be funny to see who the guaranteed bust of the draft will be (aka Detroit's first rounder), I think it's a diminishing return don't you? After all, I'm sure like the playoffs you'll all want to tune out for a bit once the CH is done and dusted in the first round.
Chalk that up as another plus for not being there in person – no underlying sense of responsibility to pretend to care about what the Flyers, Bruins and Flames might do.
Second round and beyond
I'm not sure anyone will be masochist enough to sit through and live-blog the whole thing, and I'm no exception there. I have compiled a list for interested readers to post when the first round goes to bed of players I've penciled in as Canadiens targets. I'll be posting that after the festivities.
Though I'd love to be sipping overpriced Molson/Coors products in the stands, I actually think I'll be handier with the comments from my own living room. For one thing, I won't be forsaking the internet and, for another, I won't have to delete all the characters created by the impression of my forehead as I nod off during the inevitable boredom that is 30 people holding 10 minute discussions over 18 year olds.
If you want the live and authentic touch though (and feel no shame in shunning me, why would you?) then you should check out one of the equally excellent blogs that are:
The Daily Hab-It and Eyes On The Prize
Both Arpon and Robert will be there with full credentials (I hope that means cheaper beer?) and providing updates as the night wears, I mean rolls, on. As usual, if you prefer, you can just peek at the right-hand bar and see what they've updated with, as LIW shows that automatically now anyway...
Defining night
I had written momentous, but that would be making an assumption wouldn't it. One thing I am sure of, however, is that this night will give us a feeling of where this team is going for the next 5 years.
For one thing, we should find out whether Lecavalier will ever be a Montreal Canadien. We'll also find out if Bob Gainey still has the ability to make a good trade like he did way back when for Zubov. We'll discover if the Canadiens feel they need to nab one of the exceptional crop that is the top 8 in this draft class, and we'll find out how important the Habs feel the lack of scoring talent in the system is.
Should be fun.
18 and out
As for myself, I'll be hanging in with the anti-social Friday night TV (so says my wife) until the Canadiens selection at 18 or whenever that may be. Though it would be funny to see who the guaranteed bust of the draft will be (aka Detroit's first rounder), I think it's a diminishing return don't you? After all, I'm sure like the playoffs you'll all want to tune out for a bit once the CH is done and dusted in the first round.
Chalk that up as another plus for not being there in person – no underlying sense of responsibility to pretend to care about what the Flyers, Bruins and Flames might do.
Second round and beyond
I'm not sure anyone will be masochist enough to sit through and live-blog the whole thing, and I'm no exception there. I have compiled a list for interested readers to post when the first round goes to bed of players I've penciled in as Canadiens targets. I'll be posting that after the festivities.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Draft Week
Montreal Canadiens' Woeful Draft Record A Complete Myth
Imagine you're sat at home on a cold winter's evening in Montreal chatting on the phone with your friend down in Barbados. You sit and listen patiently through all the grumblings about the weather (rain on Monday, too hot on Thursday) before signing off until next time.
That's what it must be like for fans in some NHL cities to read year after year about the Montreal Canadiens organization's horrible record when it comes to draft day.
Yes, it's all relative. And Montrealers live in a dream world where the draft should be a time for your GM to take his 4 first round picks (stockpiled from eager, yet unready, expansion GMs) and bring home a superstar by the year.
But really, we've all had time to adjust – 16 years if not more – and the idea that 3 NHLers is a good draft should start to sink in, I think. On the eve of this year's annual amateur amalgamation, I thought it was time to set things straight for fans of the bleu, blanc, rouge – to show just how good our managers have been over the last decades.
My system for this analysis was simple (possibly simplistic) – I looked at every player who played an NHL game or more this year and I looked at where that player came from. Here's what I found:
1) Montreal has drafted the highest number of 2008-09 NHLers
Montreal had 41 players from all rounds to Buffalo's 39 for first in absolute numbers of players. What's more the Canadiens were second in GP with 2096 vs. Buffalo's 2158 and second in points scored by those players with 841, only trailing New Jersey's 848 by 7 points.
These numbers are even more impressive when you consider Detroit only had 27 players drafted by them playing an NHL contest this year and some teams like Carolina, Vancouver and Minnesota (though on only 9 drafts) were at 19, 19 and 18 respectively.
2) Montreal second rounders and beyond outclass rivals picks by a long way
The media (and fans) in Montreal like to lambaste the general manager and the team for being pitiful on draft day, and some media bring up the same old chestnuts to discuss every single year. The story of first round draft picks gone missing (a tale from almost every team, by the way) is used to imply that Montreal isn't performing optimally on draft day.
Maybe so. But beyond that first round, no one team has really performed better. Everyone is really propagating a myth.
Montreal's management managed to select 32 players (more than an entire roster-worth) to play in the 2008-09 season. The next closest rivals were all in the twenties. Montreal also led in games played by non-first round picks and only trailed Detroit (courtesy Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen and Lidstrom) in points scored by those players.
3) Montreal isn't that bad in the first round either
Considering the furor, you'd think Montreal were the absolute worst at picking an NHLer from the first round. never mind their success in other rounds.
In actual fact, the Habs sit tied at 15th with Toronto and Carolina with 9 first round picks skating in the league today.
The leaders (believe it or not) are Phoenix/Winnipeg with 14 NHLers (a lot of good that has done them) followed by New Jersey, the Isles and Washington at 13 apiece.
When you consider the Habs have only had the benefit of 4 top 10 picks in the past 20 years (and made all but Terry Ryan stick), then it's not such a bad record.
Take top 10 picks away and the Canadiens are 11th best (tied with Toronto, San Jose and LA with 6 picks playing).
Non-top 10 picks overall, and the Habs once again lead. 38 players vs. 37 for Buffalo, 34 for Colorado/Quebec and 31 for NJ (the rest under 30).
4) The Habs have been consistent over time
Of the 41 Canadiens draft picks who suited up this year, 21 were drafted before the millennium and 20 were drafted 2000 or later.
Though not first when looking from 2000 on, the Canadiens do still boast the third highest harvest of NHL able draftees since the last expansion. Their 20 puts them in a draw with Edmonton and Buffalo and just behind Columbus and Pittsburgh. Vancouver (Hi Burkie!) and Carolina continue to plumb the depths with 8 and 11, respectively.
5) The Habs have been most successful at the defensive end of the ice
As to be expected given their recent (and long-time) strategy of picking defenders, the Canadiens have been at their most excellent when not picking forwards in the draft.
When it comes to goalies the Canadiens are right near the apex. 5 of the goalies they selected over the past 15 years played this season. All five, including Price, Vokoun, Halak, Garon and Theodore were at times the starter of their respective teams. Only Colorado/Quebec, also with 5 (Thomas, Fernandez, Budaj, Johnson and Denis) can surpass them.
On D the Canadiens draft picks also stood out with a whopping 14 playing at least one NHL game this season. Most were regulars with only Matt Carkner, Ryan O'Byrne, Patrice Brisebois and Yannick Weber playing on the margins. The one team to outdo the Canadiens was the Buffalo Sabres who drafted 3 sets of NHL defense line-ups with 17 draftees in all. Standouts from the Sabres draft classes included Dennis Wideman, Brian Campbell and Keith Ballard. No Markov, though.
So, it seems Montreal is quite good at drafting after all.
If Montreal has not succeeded it is not for an abject failure in the scouting system, but perhaps a distaste for risk. After all, when you can go into rounds 2 to 9 of a draft and say - "we'll come out with 3 players who'll be suiting up in the next 5 years if we go with sound strategy" - who would go with less?
The problem is, as Jack Todd rightly pointed out this morning in the Charlottetown Guardian:
So blame it on cautiousness, bad luck or getting outworked in free agency. Our woes don't come from a failure at the draft...
That's what it must be like for fans in some NHL cities to read year after year about the Montreal Canadiens organization's horrible record when it comes to draft day.
Yes, it's all relative. And Montrealers live in a dream world where the draft should be a time for your GM to take his 4 first round picks (stockpiled from eager, yet unready, expansion GMs) and bring home a superstar by the year.
But really, we've all had time to adjust – 16 years if not more – and the idea that 3 NHLers is a good draft should start to sink in, I think. On the eve of this year's annual amateur amalgamation, I thought it was time to set things straight for fans of the bleu, blanc, rouge – to show just how good our managers have been over the last decades.
My system for this analysis was simple (possibly simplistic) – I looked at every player who played an NHL game or more this year and I looked at where that player came from. Here's what I found:
1) Montreal has drafted the highest number of 2008-09 NHLers
| Team | Drafted players | GP | Avg GP | Pts | Avg Pts |
| Montreal | 41 | 2096 | 51.1 | 841 | 20.5 |
| Buffalo | 39 | 2158 | 55.3 | 759 | 19.5 |
| Colorado/Quebec | 36 | 1638 | 45.5 | 579 | 16.1 |
| San Jose | 35 | 1444 | 53.5 | 553 | 20.5 |
| New Jersey | 34 | 1868 | 54.9 | 848 | 24.9 |
Montreal had 41 players from all rounds to Buffalo's 39 for first in absolute numbers of players. What's more the Canadiens were second in GP with 2096 vs. Buffalo's 2158 and second in points scored by those players with 841, only trailing New Jersey's 848 by 7 points.
These numbers are even more impressive when you consider Detroit only had 27 players drafted by them playing an NHL contest this year and some teams like Carolina, Vancouver and Minnesota (though on only 9 drafts) were at 19, 19 and 18 respectively.
2) Montreal second rounders and beyond outclass rivals picks by a long way
The media (and fans) in Montreal like to lambaste the general manager and the team for being pitiful on draft day, and some media bring up the same old chestnuts to discuss every single year. The story of first round draft picks gone missing (a tale from almost every team, by the way) is used to imply that Montreal isn't performing optimally on draft day.
Maybe so. But beyond that first round, no one team has really performed better. Everyone is really propagating a myth.
| Team | Drafted players | GP | Avg GP | Pts | Avg Pts |
| Montreal | 32 | 1653 | 51.6 | 662 | 20.7 |
| Buffalo | 27 | 1420 | 52.6 | 514 | 19.0 |
| Colorado/Quebec | 26 | 1131 | 43.5 | 366 | 14.1 |
| New York Rangers | 26 | 1143 | 44.0 | 457 | 17.6 |
| Detroit | 25 | 1196 | 47.8 | 702 | 28.1 |
Montreal's management managed to select 32 players (more than an entire roster-worth) to play in the 2008-09 season. The next closest rivals were all in the twenties. Montreal also led in games played by non-first round picks and only trailed Detroit (courtesy Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen and Lidstrom) in points scored by those players.
3) Montreal isn't that bad in the first round either
Considering the furor, you'd think Montreal were the absolute worst at picking an NHLer from the first round. never mind their success in other rounds.
In actual fact, the Habs sit tied at 15th with Toronto and Carolina with 9 first round picks skating in the league today.
The leaders (believe it or not) are Phoenix/Winnipeg with 14 NHLers (a lot of good that has done them) followed by New Jersey, the Isles and Washington at 13 apiece.
When you consider the Habs have only had the benefit of 4 top 10 picks in the past 20 years (and made all but Terry Ryan stick), then it's not such a bad record.
Take top 10 picks away and the Canadiens are 11th best (tied with Toronto, San Jose and LA with 6 picks playing).
Non-top 10 picks overall, and the Habs once again lead. 38 players vs. 37 for Buffalo, 34 for Colorado/Quebec and 31 for NJ (the rest under 30).
4) The Habs have been consistent over time
Of the 41 Canadiens draft picks who suited up this year, 21 were drafted before the millennium and 20 were drafted 2000 or later.
Though not first when looking from 2000 on, the Canadiens do still boast the third highest harvest of NHL able draftees since the last expansion. Their 20 puts them in a draw with Edmonton and Buffalo and just behind Columbus and Pittsburgh. Vancouver (Hi Burkie!) and Carolina continue to plumb the depths with 8 and 11, respectively.
5) The Habs have been most successful at the defensive end of the ice
As to be expected given their recent (and long-time) strategy of picking defenders, the Canadiens have been at their most excellent when not picking forwards in the draft.
When it comes to goalies the Canadiens are right near the apex. 5 of the goalies they selected over the past 15 years played this season. All five, including Price, Vokoun, Halak, Garon and Theodore were at times the starter of their respective teams. Only Colorado/Quebec, also with 5 (Thomas, Fernandez, Budaj, Johnson and Denis) can surpass them.
On D the Canadiens draft picks also stood out with a whopping 14 playing at least one NHL game this season. Most were regulars with only Matt Carkner, Ryan O'Byrne, Patrice Brisebois and Yannick Weber playing on the margins. The one team to outdo the Canadiens was the Buffalo Sabres who drafted 3 sets of NHL defense line-ups with 17 draftees in all. Standouts from the Sabres draft classes included Dennis Wideman, Brian Campbell and Keith Ballard. No Markov, though.
So, it seems Montreal is quite good at drafting after all.
If Montreal has not succeeded it is not for an abject failure in the scouting system, but perhaps a distaste for risk. After all, when you can go into rounds 2 to 9 of a draft and say - "we'll come out with 3 players who'll be suiting up in the next 5 years if we go with sound strategy" - who would go with less?
The problem is, as Jack Todd rightly pointed out this morning in the Charlottetown Guardian:
Sooner or later, you have to hit a few gems like Carter, Getzlaf and Parise if you want to go from also-ran to the top of the heap. The Detroit Red Wings, everyone’s model of the perfectly run franchise, drafted Henrik Zetterberg with the 210th pick of the 1999 draft, Pavel Datsyuk with the 171st pick in 1998 and Nik Lidstrom 53rd in 1989 — that’s how you build a great team.
So blame it on cautiousness, bad luck or getting outworked in free agency. Our woes don't come from a failure at the draft...
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
NHL Draft Theory
The NHL draft is 10 days away now and the previews are coming thick and fast. I've been doing some analysis and will offer a preview of what I think the Canadiens should do very soon. To start with, though, I thought I would indulge a little abstract discussion on how I think a team's scouting department should target their efforts.
Generally speaking there are two ways that teams seem to approach a draft:
1) Address specific organizational needs
OR
2) Pick the best player available
Both are very good approaches with arguments for and against. I dissect each below.
Organizational needs
This method is the favourite of analysts. For one thing, it allows them to predict which teams will take which players. It's clearly also a very popular approach among teams.
What this tack has going for it is that when you get it right, your team can tick over as a self-contained machine. The NHL club will be stocked with players from minor league clubs which are all fed through the draft at each position. You'll always have 6 goalies, 20 odd defencemen and many more forwards in the system to keep it alimenting the major league team.
The problem with this approach is that it requires teams to draft things like defensive defencemen and third line wingers. Scouts already have enough trouble seeking out the one player that could be an offensive star one day, giving them extra briefs to fill all on the same day every year is a tough one.
Another problem is that it assumes organizational strength throughout, not only at judging new talent but also at judging the talent within. Call me crazy, but I don't think most organizations are rightly equipped to approach the draft in this way. Most teams have enough trouble picking a GM and a coach, to expect not only that but also excellent NHL level scouts, heads of amateur scouting and eyes on the local arenas is probably stretching reality.
To boot, you'll end up being called the Nashville Predators.
Best player
Those who fall under the Montreal umbrella will be accustomed to hearing the party line that is "Best player available" for a while now. Trevor Timmins in particular is a premier adherent to this school of thought.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with picking who you think is the best, but you would run the risk of overstocking at one position (say defence) while other positions (like goalie and right wing, for example) are perilously weak.
It does alleviate the problem, however, of having to know what you've got in the system. That taxing activity removed would give more time for actually assessing the new potential coming through. I do like the focus of this idea a lot.
It's not necessarily a bad thing, but this system of choosing draft picks does require a good system to build equilibrium be in place. In my experience, a good NHL team has a balance of talent. It's very rare (and probably foolhardy to go against experience) to ice 6 great defenders a decent goalie and AHL forwards and expect much silverware. Similarly, 3 top centers with no defencemen doesn't work for most. That's to say, your GM better be darn good at trading away defensive prospects for forwards if your a head scout who constantly picks defensive stalwarts from Minnesota.
If your team's track record for trading up (or even sideways) in value and bringing in good players through free agency is poor, then you'd better be looking to the draft to fill some of the other positions as well.
Which system for the Canadiens?
Having looked at the alternatives, I'm not really turned on by either. I do feel the Canadiens have a good scouting network in place they certainly seem to turn up more late round steals than an average NHL club. That said, I wouldn't want to be limited to a team built from the draft - the club still does have it share of shocking picks and misses.
It's tempting to think that the best player approach is a worthy one, but I think these last few years have shown us a few things about Timmins' and Gainey's little theory. Drafting loads of defencemen is no good at all when the GM can't flip one in a trade - it just creates a log jam where perfectly good prospects are lost into the ether (or the KHL). It has to be said that losing Emelin and Valentenko when both Mathieu Aubin might be left as the top centre in Hamilton next season is criminal.
The lesson for me in all this is that defencemen are an asset, yes. But defensive projects are not, at least not in a trade. Most clubs trading away value are looking for value that will pay dividends in the relative short term - they don't want David Fischer until they see whether he's able to handle the jump to the NHL at age 25.
I think the Canadiens need a third way to approach this conundrum.
A third system
The third way is a bit different. Rather than selecting the best player, I think the Canadiens should be looking to select the best organizational asset with each pick they make.
Best asset
The first step is to be realistic about how the NHL is run. The draft is what it is, but it is not the only tool available to those building a Stanley Cup contending team. In order to fashion a team to win, a GM must also effectively use free agency, waivers and trades. In the context of all these other avenues of player acquisition, drafting recedes in importance. It is still vital, but in order to maximise your chances your overall, you need to understand what the draft is best for. Moreover, you need to understand what the draft can provide that unrestricted avenues like free agency and waivers cannot.
It's simple really, simple economics: supply and demand.
Recent history shows that the hardest things to get your hands on (from another team) are reliable scoring forwards and top-notch defencemen. Incidentally, these are also the two categories of player that will cost you the moon on July 1st - and due to taxes and other issues are probably out of Montreal's reach altogether in free agency. It follows that having these assets in the system for a possible trade will offer the best return should you want it.
By contrast, drafting and developing defensive or lower scoring forwards is something anyone can do. These players can be traded for with relative ease, signed on July 10th when the dust settles or even acquired through non-draft routes as undrafted players. In other words, one should not look at as a defensive forward or a future back-up goalie as a true organizational asset.
Swing for the fences
Another part of being realistic about the NHL is knowing that having 43 good prospects is not that much better than having 8. Trades are few and don't look to be rising, and teams with a raft of prospects often get shorted on trades because of the perception they are not giving up as much.
Knowing that you don't have to have seven draftees making it all the way to the NHL or the AHL or even the ECHL should be a relief. It's realistic. My question prior to each pick wouldn't be who has the best odds of being an NHL player, but rather who has the best odds (even if they're outside) of being the best offensive star or, if a defenceman, top defender.
A team shouldn't be using any pick, let a lone a top pick to select a player who's already called a defensive forward or defensive defenceman at the junior level. You can't criticise much in the draft, but you can criticise this.
Habs fans, how would you like to have Travis Zajac. He was picked 2 selections after Kyle Chipchura as a risky offensive prospect. He's already played 3 seasons on the New Jersey Devils and is a first/second liner with a 20-goal season by age 23. The Devils swung for the fence and the Canadiens have a forward that can play like their waiver wire pick-up Geln Metropolit (if they're lucky). Chipchura may one day have me eating my words, but Gainey could have traded Huet for him instead of that second round pick in a pinch if he liked him so much - it's just not hard to acquire the Chipchuras of this world. The Zajacs, well you tell me...
If your drafting is any good, and ours is, swinging for the fences should come off once in a while. And who knows, maybe we can replicate our Markov pick with a Datsyuk and Zetterberg of our own.
Trade picks if the math adds up
There will come times when someone comes knocking for that pick. At those times, I can only advise listening.
The Tanguay trade was a classic example of an opportunity well taken. No matter how you sliced it, the likelihood of getting a player as good as Tanguay (a scoring star – one of those rare assets) in either the first or second round of the NHL draft was slim to none. Gainey missed a chance at an organizational asset, but added an actual asset. Also, the addition of Tanguay bumped people down in the organization. Corey Locke, for example was now expendable and used in a trade for something of use to the team.
Trading picks like this is to be encouraged in my third approach, so long as the opportunity cost calculation is sound. a 25th pick for Tanguay (even for one year) is a win. Had that pick been a 10th overall, the choice gets murkier. 5th overall and it's a loser.
In sum
Don't pick the player with the best chance of being an NHLer, pick the one with a chance at being a star Don't even bother picking the types of players you can easily pick up by other means (i.e., OK goalies, defensive defencemen and bottom line forwards) Trade the pick if the organization gets a better asset mix from the swap
This is the strategy I can only hope the Canadiens look to in the future. I hope that this year will be the first of many home run swinging affairs and to that 18th pick – whether we use it to choose an amateur or to bring in a pro.
Generally speaking there are two ways that teams seem to approach a draft:
1) Address specific organizational needs
OR
2) Pick the best player available
Both are very good approaches with arguments for and against. I dissect each below.
Organizational needs
This method is the favourite of analysts. For one thing, it allows them to predict which teams will take which players. It's clearly also a very popular approach among teams.
What this tack has going for it is that when you get it right, your team can tick over as a self-contained machine. The NHL club will be stocked with players from minor league clubs which are all fed through the draft at each position. You'll always have 6 goalies, 20 odd defencemen and many more forwards in the system to keep it alimenting the major league team.
The problem with this approach is that it requires teams to draft things like defensive defencemen and third line wingers. Scouts already have enough trouble seeking out the one player that could be an offensive star one day, giving them extra briefs to fill all on the same day every year is a tough one.
Another problem is that it assumes organizational strength throughout, not only at judging new talent but also at judging the talent within. Call me crazy, but I don't think most organizations are rightly equipped to approach the draft in this way. Most teams have enough trouble picking a GM and a coach, to expect not only that but also excellent NHL level scouts, heads of amateur scouting and eyes on the local arenas is probably stretching reality.
To boot, you'll end up being called the Nashville Predators.
Best player
Those who fall under the Montreal umbrella will be accustomed to hearing the party line that is "Best player available" for a while now. Trevor Timmins in particular is a premier adherent to this school of thought.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with picking who you think is the best, but you would run the risk of overstocking at one position (say defence) while other positions (like goalie and right wing, for example) are perilously weak.
It does alleviate the problem, however, of having to know what you've got in the system. That taxing activity removed would give more time for actually assessing the new potential coming through. I do like the focus of this idea a lot.
It's not necessarily a bad thing, but this system of choosing draft picks does require a good system to build equilibrium be in place. In my experience, a good NHL team has a balance of talent. It's very rare (and probably foolhardy to go against experience) to ice 6 great defenders a decent goalie and AHL forwards and expect much silverware. Similarly, 3 top centers with no defencemen doesn't work for most. That's to say, your GM better be darn good at trading away defensive prospects for forwards if your a head scout who constantly picks defensive stalwarts from Minnesota.
If your team's track record for trading up (or even sideways) in value and bringing in good players through free agency is poor, then you'd better be looking to the draft to fill some of the other positions as well.
Which system for the Canadiens?
Having looked at the alternatives, I'm not really turned on by either. I do feel the Canadiens have a good scouting network in place they certainly seem to turn up more late round steals than an average NHL club. That said, I wouldn't want to be limited to a team built from the draft - the club still does have it share of shocking picks and misses.
It's tempting to think that the best player approach is a worthy one, but I think these last few years have shown us a few things about Timmins' and Gainey's little theory. Drafting loads of defencemen is no good at all when the GM can't flip one in a trade - it just creates a log jam where perfectly good prospects are lost into the ether (or the KHL). It has to be said that losing Emelin and Valentenko when both Mathieu Aubin might be left as the top centre in Hamilton next season is criminal.
The lesson for me in all this is that defencemen are an asset, yes. But defensive projects are not, at least not in a trade. Most clubs trading away value are looking for value that will pay dividends in the relative short term - they don't want David Fischer until they see whether he's able to handle the jump to the NHL at age 25.
I think the Canadiens need a third way to approach this conundrum.
A third system
The third way is a bit different. Rather than selecting the best player, I think the Canadiens should be looking to select the best organizational asset with each pick they make.
Best asset
The first step is to be realistic about how the NHL is run. The draft is what it is, but it is not the only tool available to those building a Stanley Cup contending team. In order to fashion a team to win, a GM must also effectively use free agency, waivers and trades. In the context of all these other avenues of player acquisition, drafting recedes in importance. It is still vital, but in order to maximise your chances your overall, you need to understand what the draft is best for. Moreover, you need to understand what the draft can provide that unrestricted avenues like free agency and waivers cannot.
It's simple really, simple economics: supply and demand.
Recent history shows that the hardest things to get your hands on (from another team) are reliable scoring forwards and top-notch defencemen. Incidentally, these are also the two categories of player that will cost you the moon on July 1st - and due to taxes and other issues are probably out of Montreal's reach altogether in free agency. It follows that having these assets in the system for a possible trade will offer the best return should you want it.
By contrast, drafting and developing defensive or lower scoring forwards is something anyone can do. These players can be traded for with relative ease, signed on July 10th when the dust settles or even acquired through non-draft routes as undrafted players. In other words, one should not look at as a defensive forward or a future back-up goalie as a true organizational asset.
Swing for the fences
Another part of being realistic about the NHL is knowing that having 43 good prospects is not that much better than having 8. Trades are few and don't look to be rising, and teams with a raft of prospects often get shorted on trades because of the perception they are not giving up as much.
Knowing that you don't have to have seven draftees making it all the way to the NHL or the AHL or even the ECHL should be a relief. It's realistic. My question prior to each pick wouldn't be who has the best odds of being an NHL player, but rather who has the best odds (even if they're outside) of being the best offensive star or, if a defenceman, top defender.
A team shouldn't be using any pick, let a lone a top pick to select a player who's already called a defensive forward or defensive defenceman at the junior level. You can't criticise much in the draft, but you can criticise this.
Habs fans, how would you like to have Travis Zajac. He was picked 2 selections after Kyle Chipchura as a risky offensive prospect. He's already played 3 seasons on the New Jersey Devils and is a first/second liner with a 20-goal season by age 23. The Devils swung for the fence and the Canadiens have a forward that can play like their waiver wire pick-up Geln Metropolit (if they're lucky). Chipchura may one day have me eating my words, but Gainey could have traded Huet for him instead of that second round pick in a pinch if he liked him so much - it's just not hard to acquire the Chipchuras of this world. The Zajacs, well you tell me...
If your drafting is any good, and ours is, swinging for the fences should come off once in a while. And who knows, maybe we can replicate our Markov pick with a Datsyuk and Zetterberg of our own.
Trade picks if the math adds up
There will come times when someone comes knocking for that pick. At those times, I can only advise listening.
The Tanguay trade was a classic example of an opportunity well taken. No matter how you sliced it, the likelihood of getting a player as good as Tanguay (a scoring star – one of those rare assets) in either the first or second round of the NHL draft was slim to none. Gainey missed a chance at an organizational asset, but added an actual asset. Also, the addition of Tanguay bumped people down in the organization. Corey Locke, for example was now expendable and used in a trade for something of use to the team.
Trading picks like this is to be encouraged in my third approach, so long as the opportunity cost calculation is sound. a 25th pick for Tanguay (even for one year) is a win. Had that pick been a 10th overall, the choice gets murkier. 5th overall and it's a loser.
In sum
- Don't worry about organizational needs – worry about the players available
This is the strategy I can only hope the Canadiens look to in the future. I hope that this year will be the first of many home run swinging affairs and to that 18th pick – whether we use it to choose an amateur or to bring in a pro.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Something Positive
In Stewart We Add One Helluva Player
Gone amiss in all the orchestrated confusion was the promotion of Greg Stewart yesterday afternoon. I read somewhere that Carbonneau personally requested Greg Stewart to bolster his forces – maybe the man does have some sense.
Privately (and Tobalev will tell you), I have been asking for the Stewart promotion from the very first time I saw him. I thought he should make the team in October (from his review):
Why I like him
I'll tell you why I like him. There are two reasons.
The first is this:
For all the Laraques in the world, you'd have never seen this fight. Stewart stood up to a true jerk and a cocky vet who thought he could get away with picking on a rookie. The way he punched was the only reason fighting should be allowed (to settle real game-derived disputes), and the way his teammates applauded is marked next to the indifference Laraque provokes.
Stewart would be scarier than Laraque because a) he would stand up for his teammates no matter what and b) he could fight anyone he liked (moreover disliked).
The second reason I like him is because he can play. Not only that he is puck hungry. When he doesn't have the puck he fights to get it, he plans to get it, and often he gets it. His hits are not for the end of year tallies, they are for the pursuit of that small rubber disc.
Not only is he puck hungry, but he can protect the puck with his body and as he showed with his single (yet brilliant) assist this season he is aware of his teammates while he does all this.
If he had soft hands in the least, there would be no Guillaume Latendresse in Habs lore. He doesn't, but he still merits his place.
Pedigree
Or perhaps: Petergree.
Being a member of the Peterborough Petes is to the OHL what being a member of the Montreal Canadiens was to hockey.
- They began as a farm team for the Montreal Canadiens in 1956
– It is the oldest continuous franchise in the CHL
- They have won a record 8 Memorial Cups in 53 years
– They are known as a “Junior Hockey Factory”: producing a record number of NHL players, including Eric and Jordan Staal, Chris Pronger, Mike Ricci, Steve Yzerman, Doug Jarvis and of course Bob Gainey
– Coaches of the Petes include top NHL coaches Roger Neilson, Mike Keenan and Scotty Bowman
That ain't no joke.
Greg Stewart didn't put up incredible numbers in junior, but being a contributing member of the Petes was probably enough to get him drafted. The fact he won a Memorial Cup as a veteran junior two years after being drafted was a certain bonus for the Habs. As usual, he didn't do the heavy lifting. but as we know champions take many shapes and sizes.
His coach then, a Petes legend himself Dick Todd, had this to say of Greg:
Rare Canadian find
If as Mike Boone so eagerly writes, the Canadiens are de-Russifying their team, then they had better hope that they turn up a few more Stewarts than they currently do.
Greg is a notable exception in an otherwise dismal record of finding and developing Canadian talent.
Timmins has selected 23 Canadian players since his hiring. If you exclude Carey Price (who was a lucky dip for the Habs with an unearned 5th overall pick) then you're looking at Lapierre, Latendresse, O'Byrne, D'Agostini and Chipchura from that span. With the exception of Lapierre, who plays like he deserves a place, the other players still have question marks over their NHL careers, let alone stardom.
Talk of Detroit often comes around to the success of late round scouting and picks. But while Timmins can poach Europeans late (Streit, Halak and S Kostitsyn), Stewart stands as the very rare Canadian (indeed North American) to play any important hockey from among 7 players. The rest are absolute duds.
Look forward to Stewart tonight. He brings quality with his grit. It's great to see.
Privately (and Tobalev will tell you), I have been asking for the Stewart promotion from the very first time I saw him. I thought he should make the team in October (from his review):
Personally, I'd have Stewart in the team set up. 10 goals in Hamilton prove he is no passenger and one game in Montreal showed me he is hyped to play in the bigs. As poor Steve Begin falls apart bit by bit due to his rugged approach, it will be nice to have Stewart there to step in and offer a spark plug of comparable energy
Why I like him
I'll tell you why I like him. There are two reasons.
The first is this:
For all the Laraques in the world, you'd have never seen this fight. Stewart stood up to a true jerk and a cocky vet who thought he could get away with picking on a rookie. The way he punched was the only reason fighting should be allowed (to settle real game-derived disputes), and the way his teammates applauded is marked next to the indifference Laraque provokes.
Stewart would be scarier than Laraque because a) he would stand up for his teammates no matter what and b) he could fight anyone he liked (moreover disliked).
The second reason I like him is because he can play. Not only that he is puck hungry. When he doesn't have the puck he fights to get it, he plans to get it, and often he gets it. His hits are not for the end of year tallies, they are for the pursuit of that small rubber disc.
Not only is he puck hungry, but he can protect the puck with his body and as he showed with his single (yet brilliant) assist this season he is aware of his teammates while he does all this.
If he had soft hands in the least, there would be no Guillaume Latendresse in Habs lore. He doesn't, but he still merits his place.
Pedigree
Or perhaps: Petergree.
Being a member of the Peterborough Petes is to the OHL what being a member of the Montreal Canadiens was to hockey.
- They began as a farm team for the Montreal Canadiens in 1956
– It is the oldest continuous franchise in the CHL
- They have won a record 8 Memorial Cups in 53 years
– They are known as a “Junior Hockey Factory”: producing a record number of NHL players, including Eric and Jordan Staal, Chris Pronger, Mike Ricci, Steve Yzerman, Doug Jarvis and of course Bob Gainey
– Coaches of the Petes include top NHL coaches Roger Neilson, Mike Keenan and Scotty Bowman
That ain't no joke.
Greg Stewart didn't put up incredible numbers in junior, but being a contributing member of the Petes was probably enough to get him drafted. The fact he won a Memorial Cup as a veteran junior two years after being drafted was a certain bonus for the Habs. As usual, he didn't do the heavy lifting. but as we know champions take many shapes and sizes.
His coach then, a Petes legend himself Dick Todd, had this to say of Greg:
“When I took over last year they raved about his conditioning and strength,” Petes coach Dick Todd told Hockey’s Future this week. “Usually the draft is so well documented that you don’t get quality players later in the draft coming to junior so he was a pleasant surprise to the hockey club when they got him."
Rare Canadian find
If as Mike Boone so eagerly writes, the Canadiens are de-Russifying their team, then they had better hope that they turn up a few more Stewarts than they currently do.
Greg is a notable exception in an otherwise dismal record of finding and developing Canadian talent.
Timmins has selected 23 Canadian players since his hiring. If you exclude Carey Price (who was a lucky dip for the Habs with an unearned 5th overall pick) then you're looking at Lapierre, Latendresse, O'Byrne, D'Agostini and Chipchura from that span. With the exception of Lapierre, who plays like he deserves a place, the other players still have question marks over their NHL careers, let alone stardom.
Talk of Detroit often comes around to the success of late round scouting and picks. But while Timmins can poach Europeans late (Streit, Halak and S Kostitsyn), Stewart stands as the very rare Canadian (indeed North American) to play any important hockey from among 7 players. The rest are absolute duds.
Look forward to Stewart tonight. He brings quality with his grit. It's great to see.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Crisis of Faith
Solitude With Options
Crisis of faith...
It's certainly wintertime in Montreal. But where once there were Lions, there are only Lines in Winter:
Lines on how bowling is better than practicing pass reception. Lines on how we must work with the team we have. Lines of tears down our juvenile netminders cheeks...
It is a true crisis of faith in Montreal at the moment. It went beyond the slump in Calgary. It went beyond the bottom last night.
In Bob We Trust?
One line you don't see bandied about is that one. And that for me is the crisis.
Before we always had Bob Gainey you see. Jan Bulis on the first line: In Bob we trust. Vezina winner for Aebischer: In Bob we trust. Let the most versatile player in the league leave to be replaced by (uh? no one?): In Bob we trust.
We don't have that anymore. We can't.
The only thing I can reasonably trust Bob Gainey to do these days is nothing at all.
The reason I think so many Canadiens fans are having such an ebb at the moment is precisely because they have come to question their own faith in the man. The man who was anointed and anointed others. The one we all look to after nights of stomach churning agony.
Montrealers saying they don't give a f*&$ about hockey, I never heard someone say that before...
This agony, that is followed by the inevitable questions and the unmistakable but tortuous conclusion that one may have been barking up the wrong tree for 165 hours and more of their year.
I guess this is only year 6 of the 5-year plan, and not the actual 100th, so there's not really any reason to panic (sic). Gainey's "5-year" plan now rests in the rebound ability of one of the youngest members of the team. Gainey bet on him early, he bet on him again, and then he went all in last February. Throughout that time, there has been the helplessness of knowing I couldn't influence those decisions any more than telling my bankers that I'd really like them to lend a little more carefully with my money in the future.
What, did you expect an answer?
Fire Carbonneau? Got a replacement? Like Michel Bergeron? Probably not.
Trade ______...? Good one.
Darts tournament?
In Bob We Trust? I ain't got anything else, sorry. His gamble was reckless, but it's all we have now. I certainly can't take solitude with options on a cold Saturday in February – I'm not ready to loosen the grip...
...and crisis in the Kremlin
And yea we'd heard all of that before
It's wintertime, the house is solitude with options
And loosening the grip on a fake cold war
It's certainly wintertime in Montreal. But where once there were Lions, there are only Lines in Winter:
Lines on how bowling is better than practicing pass reception. Lines on how we must work with the team we have. Lines of tears down our juvenile netminders cheeks...
It is a true crisis of faith in Montreal at the moment. It went beyond the slump in Calgary. It went beyond the bottom last night.
In Bob We Trust?
One line you don't see bandied about is that one. And that for me is the crisis.
Before we always had Bob Gainey you see. Jan Bulis on the first line: In Bob we trust. Vezina winner for Aebischer: In Bob we trust. Let the most versatile player in the league leave to be replaced by (uh? no one?): In Bob we trust.
We don't have that anymore. We can't.
The only thing I can reasonably trust Bob Gainey to do these days is nothing at all.
The reason I think so many Canadiens fans are having such an ebb at the moment is precisely because they have come to question their own faith in the man. The man who was anointed and anointed others. The one we all look to after nights of stomach churning agony.
Montrealers saying they don't give a f*&$ about hockey, I never heard someone say that before...
This agony, that is followed by the inevitable questions and the unmistakable but tortuous conclusion that one may have been barking up the wrong tree for 165 hours and more of their year.
If Price isn't mentally strong, then that means Timmins is full of it and Gainey has gambled everything on...
If he could be wrong about that...
I guess this is only year 6 of the 5-year plan, and not the actual 100th, so there's not really any reason to panic (sic). Gainey's "5-year" plan now rests in the rebound ability of one of the youngest members of the team. Gainey bet on him early, he bet on him again, and then he went all in last February. Throughout that time, there has been the helplessness of knowing I couldn't influence those decisions any more than telling my bankers that I'd really like them to lend a little more carefully with my money in the future.
What, did you expect an answer?
Fire Carbonneau? Got a replacement? Like Michel Bergeron? Probably not.
Trade ______...? Good one.
Darts tournament?
In Bob We Trust? I ain't got anything else, sorry. His gamble was reckless, but it's all we have now. I certainly can't take solitude with options on a cold Saturday in February – I'm not ready to loosen the grip...
Friday, June 20, 2008
Enter Wing Left: Alex Tanguay
Gainey turned Huet into a player after all (essentially).
The Habs package their own second round pick from 2009 (keeping Washington's). We did also cough up the first rounder this year.
But Alex Tanguay!
I'll surely write more after my weekend holiday. But suffice it to say at this point that one LIW blogger is very excited.
We have a Cup winning, young, 20-goal scoring, LW star from the province of Quebec.
He's paid a bit much, but it's only a year on his current deal. He plays well for contracts too (see 2006), so even if we only get a year out of Alex, it should be good. Although, if he plays well, there'll be no trading our new French Canadian poster boy.
Downsides? Not shipping Brisebois in the deal somehow... Not many for now. I think he fits.
The Habs package their own second round pick from 2009 (keeping Washington's). We did also cough up the first rounder this year.
But Alex Tanguay!
I'll surely write more after my weekend holiday. But suffice it to say at this point that one LIW blogger is very excited.
We have a Cup winning, young, 20-goal scoring, LW star from the province of Quebec.
He's paid a bit much, but it's only a year on his current deal. He plays well for contracts too (see 2006), so even if we only get a year out of Alex, it should be good. Although, if he plays well, there'll be no trading our new French Canadian poster boy.
Downsides? Not shipping Brisebois in the deal somehow... Not many for now. I think he fits.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
2008 Canadiens Entry Draft Preview
The draft is about to start, there's a new scoring phenom coming out of the CHL, the next pick isn't shabby with a big and able defenceman from Ontario likely to be picked next. The draft is deep and the Russian star of the day might not get a look in the top 5. Meanwhile the Habs are mired down in the 20s for their pick. No luck, right?
That was 1993. Daigle was the can't miss at the time. Chris Pronger was that able defenceman. All the talk of Viktor Kozlov only got him selected 6th. The Canadiens, fresh off a Stanley Cup snagged the third best player in the first round with the 21st pick. Not only that, Saku Koivu has gone on to become a Canadiens icon and the second-longest serving captain in team history.
Here and now, it's the Stamkos draft. Steve is the talk of the place, but is he a sure thing? If anyone is thinking of giving the unequivocal yes, then maybe they should think again. First overall means nothing about your future career. Scouting of Stamkos provides reports that certainly project the likelihood of him being a star int he league higher than any of his peers, but the reports did the same for Daigle. Ottawa, in hindsight might have preferred Pronger, Kariya or Koivu.
What we need
There is no doubt about what the Canadiens need. For me it is a winger who can score (big or small). If he's big and can score, all the better, but scoring is what matters. The problem is the Canadiens need that player now. The player they select on the weekend may not be ready for another 4-5 seasons. The Habs have to address the need for that winger by other means than hoping an 18-year old will be our saviour next season.
As such, the Canadiens needs get rejigged. assuming the Habs do address the need there with a relatively young first-line scorer, then that will no longer be a need. So what will?
The answer is simple, and has been the Canadiens draft strategy for a while. The Canadiens need good players, the best prospects. When Trevor Timmins gives his post-draft interview and explains that they took the best player available in their estimation, they will have done their jobs. If they draft with positional or biometric shackles like some teams do, then they will be imitating the wrong teams (i.e., not the Red Wings).
The first round
I won't pretend that I know everything about the players in all the lists and profiles I've been reading. But sometimes a player just gives me a feeling. It's a product of the name, the size, the stats (in the context of where he plays, of course). Once in a while I am right about this too. As Tobalev will attest, in my card collecting days I went around and bought every Saku Koivu UpperDeck Finland rookie card from the WJHC before the Canadiens drafted him in 1993. I only had to look at his stats in a typically (back then) low-scoring Finnish league and read about his temperament to know I wanted the Habs to have him. I hoped and hoped for Saku that year, and in the end we picked my man.
When I look down the list this year, I am largely unimpressed with the list. There seem to be a lot of Chris Phillips' and few truly exciting prospects. I would be hugely disappointed if the Canadiens went weak and drafted someone like Tyler Cuma, who TSN says:
If we're looking for a steal
As a general rule, when looking for a steal, I look for a couple of things. First, I look at size. Big players are generally overrated by scouts and small players are underrated. The other thing is mention of skating. if they can't skate by now, it's too late guys. So, when I see a small player who can skate in the top tier of the draft, I am curious. It was the case with Saku Koivu, and it is the case with my new poster boy this year: Mattias Tedenby.
TSN ranked him 26th, but unlike the reviews for the defensive defencemen ahead of him, his review glowed:
My next 4
Assuming as I am that the Canadiens will not be trading up in this draft, I am listing these 4 players based on the likelihood that they could be available at 25th overall:
2) Chet Pickard, G – Tri-City Americans
I have already put the goalie option forward elsewhere, to which I usually get mocking or disbelief as a response:
3) Erik Karlsson, D – Frolunda, SEL
Offensive defencemen are great assets. Possibly the greatest around after goaltenders. but unlike goalies, teams can carry more than one offensive D, and as such they are very tradeable. Why draft for trading you ask? Because then you can get hold of that power forward with NHL experience you always want...
4) Kirill Petrov, LW – AK Bars Kazan
Here he is, the power forward we want. Apparently, the knock is that he doesn't want out of Russia. Well, if the Canadiens let this Russian issue stand in the way, then I can tell you someone else won't. That team, whoever they are, will pluck gems from the draft and we'll be looking back in 15 years after their 4th Cup in 10 years and asking how they did it. It'll take bravery, but what's the point in going to the draft if you're not willing to be brave?
5) Jordan Eberle, C – Regina Pats
Described as refreshingly offensive-minded, intelligent and goalscorer, he would be a good pick-up too. Not as big as some rival choices, but you can't teach the scoring knack to anyone.
If we have to go big
If it's gotta be a big guy, then I'd prefer Joe Colborne, but could stomach Greg Nemisz. Again, if they were passed off as the best player available, I won't be buying it.
If we're looking for someone from the backyard
Some of the Montreal media, including Mike Boone have had an eye on Danick Paquette from the QMJHL. Personally, I would steer clear of anyone who can still honestly list Todd Bertuzzi as their idol(!!!) no matter how many Xmas parties they throw. That and the fact that although he is sold as a big power forward, he's only 6' tall – he sounds like Latendresse without discipline or size.
More like it from the QMJHL, at least, are Nicolas Deschamps and Jacob Lagace from the Sagueneens (Carbo's toy). From this NHL.com article, they both sound like their stars are on the rise. If I had the say, I'd skip Deschamps if he's projected as a first rounder and pick up Lagace with a later pick. Obviously, neither has shown outstanding offensive talent just yet, and it would be an admission of defeat to pick a third line talent in the first round, no matter which province they hail from.
I, for one am a big believer in restocking the ranks from Quebec. If I were in charge, I'd be picking from Quebec in the late rounds. For one thing, we have more intimate knowledge of the local talent, and can also make the transition easier for the players who will struggle to learn new hockey skills at the same time as a new language and possibly culture. I'd like to think that some of the local boys would work that much harder for their beloved CH too.
Beyond round 1
You think about Joe Thornton, Ilya Kovalchuk, Rick Nash and company and ask what happened to those teams. Then you look at NJ and Detroit and marvel at their low first-rounders or lack thereof.
Tickets may be sold with first rounders, but dynasties are made in the later rounds. I have spoken about the desire for the Canadiens to jump all over the reluctance of other teams to draft Russians. And I mentioned their advantage in Quebec. I think the Canadiens have to leverage these two things in the later rounds to start bringing in consistent hauls of NHL quality players.
That said, I would hope that the Habs come up with some of the decent players from the Q this year. Specifically, I covet Yann Sauve or Maxime Sauve, one of Lagace or Deschamps (from above) and possibly Patrice Cormier if he's available 4th round or later.
As for Russians, it will depend on whether Petrov is the man early or not. There's taking advantage and then there's the foolishness of putting all the eggs in one basket – even Detroit wasn't taking all Swedish boys. If f we're safer than Petrov in round 1, then Evgeny Grachev in the second might make sense.
Viktor Tikhonov would also be a late intriguing pick, given the legacy of his grandfather. In fact, it might be just the sort of strategic pick (to sweeten the Habs chances in Russia overall) that could make sense.
Other names that jumped out included Jared Staal, who you know will never be small and David Carle, skating at Sidney's old school and playing like his brother Matt (San Jose's not ours).
That's about all I can muster having very little personal exposure to any of these guys. Happy Draft Day. See you in 5 years to see what the aftermath of all this was (and reaping the gains on all my Tedenby rookie cards)...
That was 1993. Daigle was the can't miss at the time. Chris Pronger was that able defenceman. All the talk of Viktor Kozlov only got him selected 6th. The Canadiens, fresh off a Stanley Cup snagged the third best player in the first round with the 21st pick. Not only that, Saku Koivu has gone on to become a Canadiens icon and the second-longest serving captain in team history.
Here and now, it's the Stamkos draft. Steve is the talk of the place, but is he a sure thing? If anyone is thinking of giving the unequivocal yes, then maybe they should think again. First overall means nothing about your future career. Scouting of Stamkos provides reports that certainly project the likelihood of him being a star int he league higher than any of his peers, but the reports did the same for Daigle. Ottawa, in hindsight might have preferred Pronger, Kariya or Koivu.
What we need
There is no doubt about what the Canadiens need. For me it is a winger who can score (big or small). If he's big and can score, all the better, but scoring is what matters. The problem is the Canadiens need that player now. The player they select on the weekend may not be ready for another 4-5 seasons. The Habs have to address the need for that winger by other means than hoping an 18-year old will be our saviour next season.
As such, the Canadiens needs get rejigged. assuming the Habs do address the need there with a relatively young first-line scorer, then that will no longer be a need. So what will?
The answer is simple, and has been the Canadiens draft strategy for a while. The Canadiens need good players, the best prospects. When Trevor Timmins gives his post-draft interview and explains that they took the best player available in their estimation, they will have done their jobs. If they draft with positional or biometric shackles like some teams do, then they will be imitating the wrong teams (i.e., not the Red Wings).
The first round
I won't pretend that I know everything about the players in all the lists and profiles I've been reading. But sometimes a player just gives me a feeling. It's a product of the name, the size, the stats (in the context of where he plays, of course). Once in a while I am right about this too. As Tobalev will attest, in my card collecting days I went around and bought every Saku Koivu UpperDeck Finland rookie card from the WJHC before the Canadiens drafted him in 1993. I only had to look at his stats in a typically (back then) low-scoring Finnish league and read about his temperament to know I wanted the Habs to have him. I hoped and hoped for Saku that year, and in the end we picked my man.
When I look down the list this year, I am largely unimpressed with the list. There seem to be a lot of Chris Phillips' and few truly exciting prospects. I would be hugely disappointed if the Canadiens went weak and drafted someone like Tyler Cuma, who TSN says:
"is a strong two-way defenceman with leadership ability and a willingness to compete hard at both ends of the ice."You can sign any number of players like that in an offseason. You shouldn't be drafting anyone whose best-case secnario is the next Steve Staios in the first round.
If we're looking for a steal
As a general rule, when looking for a steal, I look for a couple of things. First, I look at size. Big players are generally overrated by scouts and small players are underrated. The other thing is mention of skating. if they can't skate by now, it's too late guys. So, when I see a small player who can skate in the top tier of the draft, I am curious. It was the case with Saku Koivu, and it is the case with my new poster boy this year: Mattias Tedenby.
TSN ranked him 26th, but unlike the reviews for the defensive defencemen ahead of him, his review glowed:
"The diminutive Swedish winger is amongst the most competitive and skilled players available in this draft, but his lack of size is likely going to discount him in this draft. What he lacks in size, he makes up for with confidence, on and off the ice. He has an extra gear, which is essential for small guys looking to succeed in the NHL, and doesn't take a backward step in the mold of a Mats Naslund or Marty St. Louis. Could fall to the second round because of size issues, but if a team really likes him and is willing to look past the height, he could go much higher than ranked. "The Central Scouting Bureau, who ranked him much higher than TSN (3 from Europe), have even better things to say:
"Mattias is excellent on every shift. He has outstanding speed, stick work and work ethic. He is small but fearless - he takes hits and always comes back. He creates scoring chances with his outstanding skating and is very difficult to stop when he is at full speed. He has excellent balance and quick, smooth hands, but needs to improve on his defensive awareness."This is 2008's Saku Koivu! We'll lament him for being too small, but once he makes the team – icon... (I'm just off to buy the rookie cards now).
My next 4
Assuming as I am that the Canadiens will not be trading up in this draft, I am listing these 4 players based on the likelihood that they could be available at 25th overall:
2) Chet Pickard, G – Tri-City Americans
I have already put the goalie option forward elsewhere, to which I usually get mocking or disbelief as a response:
"Topham - why would we take a goalie in the first round?"Just substitute the name Timmins for Topham and think back 3 years, and maybe you'll see where I'm coming from. Chet Pickard, from all reports, is a bit like our man Carey. Their stats from draft years are remarkably similar. Funnily though, the Americans actually did better with Pickard after losing Price. So the temptation to dismiss him, should probably be, well, dismissed. If he's available, I might have trouble buying the "best player" line if Timmins were to select someone else (other than Tedenby, of course).
3) Erik Karlsson, D – Frolunda, SEL
Offensive defencemen are great assets. Possibly the greatest around after goaltenders. but unlike goalies, teams can carry more than one offensive D, and as such they are very tradeable. Why draft for trading you ask? Because then you can get hold of that power forward with NHL experience you always want...
4) Kirill Petrov, LW – AK Bars Kazan
Here he is, the power forward we want. Apparently, the knock is that he doesn't want out of Russia. Well, if the Canadiens let this Russian issue stand in the way, then I can tell you someone else won't. That team, whoever they are, will pluck gems from the draft and we'll be looking back in 15 years after their 4th Cup in 10 years and asking how they did it. It'll take bravery, but what's the point in going to the draft if you're not willing to be brave?
5) Jordan Eberle, C – Regina Pats
Described as refreshingly offensive-minded, intelligent and goalscorer, he would be a good pick-up too. Not as big as some rival choices, but you can't teach the scoring knack to anyone.
If we have to go big
If it's gotta be a big guy, then I'd prefer Joe Colborne, but could stomach Greg Nemisz. Again, if they were passed off as the best player available, I won't be buying it.
If we're looking for someone from the backyard
Some of the Montreal media, including Mike Boone have had an eye on Danick Paquette from the QMJHL. Personally, I would steer clear of anyone who can still honestly list Todd Bertuzzi as their idol(!!!) no matter how many Xmas parties they throw. That and the fact that although he is sold as a big power forward, he's only 6' tall – he sounds like Latendresse without discipline or size.
More like it from the QMJHL, at least, are Nicolas Deschamps and Jacob Lagace from the Sagueneens (Carbo's toy). From this NHL.com article, they both sound like their stars are on the rise. If I had the say, I'd skip Deschamps if he's projected as a first rounder and pick up Lagace with a later pick. Obviously, neither has shown outstanding offensive talent just yet, and it would be an admission of defeat to pick a third line talent in the first round, no matter which province they hail from.
I, for one am a big believer in restocking the ranks from Quebec. If I were in charge, I'd be picking from Quebec in the late rounds. For one thing, we have more intimate knowledge of the local talent, and can also make the transition easier for the players who will struggle to learn new hockey skills at the same time as a new language and possibly culture. I'd like to think that some of the local boys would work that much harder for their beloved CH too.
Beyond round 1
You think about Joe Thornton, Ilya Kovalchuk, Rick Nash and company and ask what happened to those teams. Then you look at NJ and Detroit and marvel at their low first-rounders or lack thereof.
Tickets may be sold with first rounders, but dynasties are made in the later rounds. I have spoken about the desire for the Canadiens to jump all over the reluctance of other teams to draft Russians. And I mentioned their advantage in Quebec. I think the Canadiens have to leverage these two things in the later rounds to start bringing in consistent hauls of NHL quality players.
That said, I would hope that the Habs come up with some of the decent players from the Q this year. Specifically, I covet Yann Sauve or Maxime Sauve, one of Lagace or Deschamps (from above) and possibly Patrice Cormier if he's available 4th round or later.
As for Russians, it will depend on whether Petrov is the man early or not. There's taking advantage and then there's the foolishness of putting all the eggs in one basket – even Detroit wasn't taking all Swedish boys. If f we're safer than Petrov in round 1, then Evgeny Grachev in the second might make sense.
Viktor Tikhonov would also be a late intriguing pick, given the legacy of his grandfather. In fact, it might be just the sort of strategic pick (to sweeten the Habs chances in Russia overall) that could make sense.
Other names that jumped out included Jared Staal, who you know will never be small and David Carle, skating at Sidney's old school and playing like his brother Matt (San Jose's not ours).
That's about all I can muster having very little personal exposure to any of these guys. Happy Draft Day. See you in 5 years to see what the aftermath of all this was (and reaping the gains on all my Tedenby rookie cards)...
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