Senators vs. Canadiens: The LIW Analysis

The playoffs are upon us. Before settling into your playoff chair adorned by items of superstition, let's take a moment to assess this series coolly and calmly.

We know the Habs handled the Senators to a 2-1-1 record this year. Oh wait, what's that you say? The Sens were 2-1-1 too? Oh dear, this could be close. let's look:

Habs Picks Are In (Almost)

So there it was, the spectacle of the NHL draft lottery. RDS and TSN outdid themselves by narrowly surpassing the pointlessness of their Trade deadline Day and Free Agency day coverages.

We had to wade through quite a bit of speculation, but eventually there was some excitement.

First we pan to Bill Daly opening an envelope (what too sensitive to show the draw on camera?) and then to Brian Burke to show that the Maple leafs had not won the draft lottery (phew). From this we know that no team directly behind the Leafs were pulled either. Also, we find comfort in seeing that Burke is sticking with his angry man tie fashion.

Another envelope, another loser. This time the Isles miss the win. So that's what Garth Snow looks like...

The big moment didn't give much time for anticipation. The envelope was opened to reveal to Larry Carriere that the Habs would be picking 3rd as their position showed.

On to first, and the Oilers are revealed as the winners. The undeserving GM can't wipe the grin from his face. The sad Blue Jackets take one last loss at the final buzzer.


Picks in
What this means of course is that the Habs will be picking third overall. It will be the team's highest selection in over 30 years. Only the Rangers and Flames (no top 5 picks ever) have had fewer top fivers over that time.

Beyond the third pick, it's good to note that the Habs will be picking 3rd in every subsequent round as well. That is, all those rounds from which they have not already traded their privilege.

So that means 3rd, 33rd, 64th (round 2 has 31 picks), 94th and 154th. The team also owns the rights to Nashville's second round pick this year, thanks to Hal Gill. Essentially the team will have four picks by the time they would have had one in 2008. Five before they would have had their second last season.

This volume is important and not mentioned very often. Five players of the top 100 in a deep year can mean some quality depth added. It also gives the team a chance to mine some quality Quebecois talent (none right now in the consensus top 30, btw) without having to pay over the odds to do it (with too high a pick) or by doing it half-heartedly (O. Archambault @108).

Also very important is that 33rd pick. This pick is a first-round run-off pick and as such is very valuable. It gains more and more value as the trade continues and players that some teams have valued as their top priority fall by the wayside to home run swing picks. The value can be cashed either with one of those players, or perhaps in a bargaining move with an eager buyer on draft day. The luxury of having the other second rounder and the high 3rd and 4th rounders are good buffer for trade.

All this puts the Canadiens scouting staff in a nice position to really go after what they believe in. Furthermore, it gives a new GM some ammunition should the route of trade be considered the way forward.


Grigorenko

The 3rd pick as it stands now looks like it could materialize into Mikhail "Grigo" Grigorenko.

But temper the optimism. The likelihood of that player falling to the third position depends very much on the two teams ahead of the Canadiens.

In the better case scenario, I think we all saw the Blue Jackets taking Yakupov, with Edmonton finally conceding they need something other than a forward and taking (sudden consensus two) Ryan Murray to fill out a team of shooters. With CBJ in second, the logic remains, but is somehow less convincing. Columbus doesn't have a young stable of good forwards in the organization like the Oilers do and can't afford to take the second best player as they cling to NHL life. While a defender might ultimately make more sense for a team who believed Wisniewski the solution to their woes, a jittery team might value the quick fix of a scorer and at last a centre for Nash.

If Grigo is gone, the Canadiens have some soul searching to do. Ryan Murray is not perhaps the player they need on the big team to complement Subban/Markov/Gorges/Emelin/Beaulieu/Tinordi. And one sees what having an expendable young defender can return (McDonagh). The decision to trade that defender should be clear before the situation unfolds so that time is not lost to hesitation.

Personally, I would trade down before picking Murray. Indeed, from what I've read, I might prefer two of the top 30 to one of the next five. I have a bad feeling about Galchenyuk and would rather hedge than take him outright at three.


Whatever happens before June, or in June, I will guarantee that it will be a more exciting time to be a Habs fan than it usually is in early summer. The potential for this kind of talent to join, the potential for movement, the reason to even watch the draft all make for a better June.

Draft Pick Love

During the regular season all fan energy is geared to just making the playoffs. 82 games of ups and downs culminate in what amounts to two weeks of nail biting for all but 3 teams at the top and bottom. The lucky 8 make it through and experience brief elation and short relief.

The playoffs take more energy. Game 1 and Game 2 hold huge hope and anticipation no matter the results. Anyone can win in the playoffs, the mantra repeated. Game 3 and onwards things get serio9us. Elimination looms, progression attainable. The fan channels energy into every facet of the game.

In a short but very intense moment of the NHL calendar, every blocked shot, every dressing room visit, every post-game quote is taken for full analysis (and not just in Montreal). This period is all-consuming. Thoughts seldom stray to other topics, it's team all day.

But then it ends. One way or another it ends. For 15 teams, the end is abrupt and dissatisfying. Seldom do fans have more than 40 minutes to morph from undying belief to total disbelief. The energy that was generated, nurtured, stored is left without direction.

The lucky fan can dissipate it all with a single fist to wall rendez-vous. Some can transfer it all, miraculously celebrating victory every year in different stripes. Those of us that are so accursed to attach everything to one group of 23 are left with adrenaline to burn and plenty of time and space in which to do it.


The NHL entry draft

Enter the NHL entry draft, a shopping excursion for NHL teams during which scouting departments pick whole generations of hockey players clean to the bone over a single weekend.

For the unsatiated fan the entry draft provides. It provides those topsy turvy moments where worst is first and playoff vanquished are in the driver's seat.

If I remember back to a time when there was no internet and the team I followed largely left their fans with ample achievement in their bellies come June, I remember being one of a few who followed the draft. Certainly one of a few who could list the picks in later rounds.

Through a combination of pent up glory-envy and the creation of means for release of this playoff stored energy, the following for such academic interests has grown exponentially. Nowadays it seems that draft day and the days that precede it are some of the busiest days of the year for a blog like this one. Nowadays, it seems like there is as much excitement in hearing the "right" name called on a June afternoon as there is on hearing the goal siren on a cold November evening. The fervent fan of hockey games transformed into the fervent fan of hockey operations.

In a hockey game, the glasses fitted for the team one supports allows for lopsided views to become reason. Each goal for a thing of beauty, each goal against a grievous error, each penalty for an unlucky misfire, each penalty against a revelation of justice.

I am beginning to see these glasses creep into the world of hockey operations fandom. While other teams can make errors donning their silly logoed shirts, the "porteurs du Saintte Flanelle" are a thing of grace even in the offseason.

How else to explain the sudden rush of support that is bestowed on each and every name called on the day of drafting, no matter how little we knew of the 17 year olds they were a minute before?

How else to explain the gulf of affection that lies between newly added 20 year-olds and those whose names we spent summers studying up on?

My theory is exactly that. That fans with that excess of hockey-allotted energy stored from May (or April) spend it throughout a summer. With little otherwise to spend it on other than qualifying offers and stories of gym routines, those 6-10 newly adorned sweaters from mid-June take the lion's share. The hours that would be spent reading about Lars Eller's ankle wrapping in early May are channeled into hockey databases and scouting reports and reviews of those hockey operations additions.

And I think there are varying levels of energy too. I mentioned the lucky ones who can turn off in May and turn on in October. Grades must then range from people who have a few days left of itch to months worth. Those with little begin and end most likely with the Nathan Beaulieus of the world, while the next tiers spend their reserves on rounds next until they realise summer just happened.


I am hardly amazed then that each first round draft pick of the storied Montreal Canadiens instantly becomes hero. I am hardly surprised that after only a few weeks, each unknown darts to the top of lists of organizational successes.

Intriguing to me still though is how enduring this love is. How even in the face of scrutiny and trials and comparisons to peers nearly each and every first rounder maintains an aura that will be carried for years. Intriguing how one decision made in June (that probably could have gone any one of 10 different directions) is deemed right and good.

You'll know if you follow this blog that I have been a bit down recently on Jarred Tinordi. In fact, I am starting to feel like a lone critic some of the time and made to feel almost traitorous for my words. Jarred, you see was taken as the Canadiens first pick in he 2010 draft which shortly followed the exhilarating run and highly disappointing end to that season. It seems I have touched a nerve perhaps too soon. Perhaps because Jarred is (or has to be) the good that came from that season without a Cup (again).

I don't pretend to know which way is right. The fact I can let go of the hope I had for the 2010 draft just like the hope of coming back against Pronger's smothering Philadelphia might just make me lucky. Perhaps I am wrong to even wish to let go of the little nugget we picked out of the river of the 2010 season. Maybe I'm the hockey operations fan equivalent of the guy who gets his beer during the period to skip the lineups.

I don't know. All I know is first round picks is not yet on the level of missed calls for me. I probably have decades of pent-up energy left for how wrong the refs got it on Doug Gilmour's broken glass penalty. Nathan Bealieu? you have maybe 5 months...

Canadiens Draft Primer

The draft is in a few days and the Canadiens need to be ready. Not that Pierre Gauthier couldn’t do this on his own, but just in case he does use this blog as his last minute cramming site, we thought it prudent to put a little effort into a preview for him.

As you know, we already highlighted the lessons that the Canadiens and their crack team need to take from their own draft history, combined with that of their rivals. Just in case they don’t have time to read that, we’ll just post the most important message here:
Don’t, for goodness sake, take another defensive defender in the first round!

That out of the way, we can get down to the serious business of the draft. The way I look at it, there are about 5 categories of players to look at for the first round of this draft (No it isn’t C, RW, LW, …). The categories come from off the top of my head painstaking research I have done into drafting over the past decade.

The first category of possible draftees are those that we’ll call Subban substitutes. They aren’t called Subban subs because they will all be as good as Subban – what do you think I’m that good at scouting I can predict NHL readiness from watching a bit of junior? No, they are called Subban subs because the only way we’ll be drafting these players is if we trade PK Subban (or someone of his stature) to the team ahead of us in line who would otherwise take one of them.

The second group of players are aptly called NAFWOPs or Not Available for Weber or Pouliot. Trading the players fans see as expendable may get something, but not these guys. It probably wouldn’t take a Subban to move up, but for all intents and purposes, the Habs aren’t getting a sniff of these NAFWOPs either.

The third category is consensus early picks. These players are highly rated by the media who either a) just watched the Bruins win the Cup and concluded that only a team exactly like the Bruins will ever in again or b) waited until the last minute and couldn’t figure out how to integrate North American and European and Skater and Goalie lists. These are big forwards who scored a lot of goals in the CHL (the minimum cut off for a lot is slipping these days, some guys here scored 20ish). These are players that should be available when the Canadiens pick because a) the media don’t have NHL jobs and b) Brian Burke can’t make all the picks.

The fourth category is the McGuire stunners. These players don’t get mentioned for some reason or another. See category three for media excuses, add drinking while compiling the list. In my opinion, the more stunned Pierre McGuire is by the pick, the better the pick probably is. The Blubbering Blusterer is no clairvoyant.

The fifth and final category is the red flags. This category is entirely determined by me and based on that thorough research I mentioned. The players are unpickable by the Canadiens for reasons of position, over-rating or the fact they have already resorted to the strategy that all slow and non-innovative players take when in a jam – they abandon their reason for being a hockey player by becoming a defensive machine before they even get a sniff of pro hockey.


Subban subs
Not worth spending too much time on these guys really. Primarily because the caliber of prospect that must be traded to get this player is more than likely to be a better prospect on odds than the draft pick himself.
The list here consists of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, Gabriel Landerskog, Jonathan Huberdeau, Sean Couturier, Dougie Hamilton, Ryan Strome and Ryan Murphy.

If any of these players were to be available without trade, or through a cheaper trade, I’d be all for adding them to the fold. Landerskog and Strome fit the bill of what the Canadiens (or any team) could use, Couturier and Huberdeau would be organizational gems, Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson are the kind of guys you make room for, and Hamilton and Murphy are a cut above their peers from the back line (with Murphy being the one I'd go for).


NAFWOPs
Mika Zibanejad, Sven Bartschi, Joel Armia, Mark McNeill all have a lot in common. All forwards. All fit the profile of a scoring forward who may succeed at NHL level. All unlikely to be available by the time the Canadiens pick.

These are the kinds of 9-15 draft picks that make one ask why the Canadiens made the playoffs if they were only going to be stifled in the first round. They make one ask that because players of their scoring ability and general quality are gone at pick 17 if all goes according to plan.

The good news is the NHL is rife with general managers who think their secret revelation is a new and unidentified way to win it all (Thomas Hickey, #4 overall, LA). Usually these GMs win the draft picks above #14 year on year.

So let’s play the game. Let’s say one of these four players slips through the table because someone opts for that 7’ guy and someone wants to impress Pierre McGuire.

If I had my choice for the player to fall to 17, I think I’d go with Joel Armia. Sure, his work ethic is being questioned by the media who watched him play one game at a tournament with lesser players than he, but he put up 18 goals in the Finnish League at age 17 and that’s got to count for something. And, remember how the Habs lost 3 OT games to Boston with Horton and Ryder spoiling the fun. How about this quote then:

"You might have to look for him during some shifts, but then, suddenly, he scores the winner."

Goalscorers sometimes need to disappear to do their thing. I certainly wouldn't mind empty shifts if goals flowed freely.

I also think Nathan Beaulieu will be gone by all accounts by pick 17. If he fell to that point, the Canadiens would take him, but it might serve them better to trade down if that happens, even if it brings on the annual wrath of RDS.

Consensus mid-teens

Mark Scheifele
Look, I understand why mock drafts take this guy. There are a lot of lists and he’s high on most. To that I would ask why? In my opinion, he gets points for points, points for being big, points for being a center, and dare I say, points for being from the OHL.

Looking deeper though, despite claims he was on a talentless team, Scheifele still racked up way more assists than goals. 75 points is no OHL record and with the ice time he got, I consider the 22 goals a red flag. I also read that 11 of his goals came down a stretch at the end. While to some that would mean he picked it up in clutch games, one must remember there were no clutch games for Barries, so he actually picked it up in meaningless games. Not one for me.

The Hockey Writers call him the safe pick. Safe picks are for rounds 3/4 in my honest opinion...

Matt Puempel
Small in stature, one gets the idea Puempel got his points for actual play rather than the potential of a big guy.34 goals wasn’t something that turned heads in past seasons, but this season it seems high for the CHL. This worries me somewhat as 34 is closer to 20 than it is to 50. Still, from all accounts he makes his living from scoring goals, but still makes time to get assists. Like Scheifele, he played on a pretty awful team, however, and with a hip injury that raises other questions doesn’t get my nod.

Brandon Saad
Not sold on Brandon either for some reason. He's already garnering comments about his two-way game, which might not be a flag with 40 goals under his belt. With 27, it starts to sound like a bit of an excuse. That said, I could be way wrong about this guy.

Duncan Siemens, Jonas Brodin, Oscar Klefbom, Joe Morrow
I’m sure these guys are all fine fellows and even better defenders. But unless someone in the organization thinks they’d be passing up the next Lidstrom or Niedermayer, I’d advise a pass on this group of Dmen. The Habs need to keep Subban around and hopefully can revitalize Markov. These have to be their bets. Together with a commitment to Weber who has shown good promise, I don’t see the need to abandon hope on finding a scorng forward to take and ever so slightly safer bet based on consensus.

McGuire stunners

Stefan Noesen
This guy isn't on mmost lists, simply because they only go to pick #30. But in a year where so many 25-30 goal guys are in the running, it's a bit of a puzzle how a relatively big OHLer with 34 goals and a 69 point jump for the season wouldn't pip some of the former favourites. Let's just accept he rose from nowhere and some in the rankings racket like to save face more than they like to be objective.

34 goals in 68 games. 77 points. Up from 3 goals last season. Noesen comes from Dallas, so he might not be under their radar. But if he slips to the Canadiens #17, he should get consideration. At the very least the team should insinuate they are going to take him to the Big D and see if Nieuwendyk coughs anything up.

Daniel Catenacci
From all reports, Catenacci translates to speed. The most generous comparisons liken him to Mike Cammalleri because of his speed, his attitude and his stature. After a second playoffs watching Camms, I'd sign another one of him up if I could.

Alexander Khokhlachev

"The first thing that jumps out about Khokhlachev’s game is his heart."

A comment like that and 34 goals in his first OHL season, I'm certain this is a classic Russian shy-away. The Canadiens have a chance to be a bit of Russian hub with Markov, Emelin, Kostitsyn and Avtsin. Why not take advantage of the rest of the NHL's reluctance. This guy played in North America already. What more could he have done to prove he wanted to be in the NHL?

Nikita Kucherov
If you don't ever finish low enough to get a high pick, you have to take a chance to get a superstar. Kucherov represents a home run swing. The guy absolutely dominated the MHL, he smashed scoring recoreds at the recent U18 champs, he has potential to be something quite special offensively. I don't think the Canadiens have much to lose by swinging big this year, because at #17 they are already looking at guys that could only muster 20-some goals in junior anyway. If Kucherov is on the radar for this pick, it might be wise, however, to turn the pick into two and take him lower when he'll likely still be available due to his recent KHL: signing.

Tyler Biggs
I'm a bit loathe to put another American college bound kid. We've seen our fair share of these already. But Biggs is legit. He is Big, as his name suggests, and he has a knack for scoring Big goals, if not enormous numbers of them. He has to be on the list for completeness, but he wouldn't be my first choice from these.


Red flags

Boone Jenner
For me his improvement from one year to the next wasn't very impressive and it really does raise the question about how one thinks he'll suddenly become NHL 20-goal material.

Zack Phillips, Tomas Jurco
Good teams put up good amounts of goals and are populated by many high point-getters. But it's a scouts job to pick out the straw that stirs the drink. In Saint John, it seems like it was probably Huberdeau. Not to mention Simon Despres and Stanislav Galiev. I'd be wary of totals from these two forwards that may well deflate when they lose their catalysts.

Jamieson Oleksiak
He's 6'7". Let's admit not all tall guys turn out to be Chara. Some turn out to be Andy Sutton -- if you're even that lucky.

Ty Rattie
Seems like 4th fiddle on his team with some pretty crazy top end talent. Buyer beware.

Brett Ritchie
I know you can't teach size. But can one really teach a 20-goal OHL player to do it at the NHL. I know there are cases where it's been done. But have the Habs really learned nothing from Turner Stevenson, Jason Ward.

Hard-Learned Lessons For Draft Day

Things that I hope the Canadiens have learned about drafting over the past decade:

1) Being more mature 18 isn’t an advantage at age 23

2) Being a defensive forward in junior means a guy doesn’t have the skill to score on junior goalies. Chances you want this guy on your pro team … he’d better play some kinda special defence

3) Defensive defenders come from everywhere. No need to try and find on in the first round.

4) As much as you’d like to trade for St. Louis, Staal, Perry, Ovechkin, Crosby, Sedins, you can’t. Constantly passing on scorers likely means you could end up without any.

5) While the NCAA is nice to bury a player outside the budget, one only needs to take a look at Komisarek’s regular National team duty to know that USA isn’t pumping out the cream of the defensive crop.

6) Better to get 2 players in the top 60 than one after the first 10 pass.

7) Russia hasn’t forgotten how to play hockey just because they’ve forgotten how to sign on to IIHF transfer agreements.

8) If the NHL can’t even reconcile how to mix North American and European players from the same positions together into one list, how do you expect to judge a player’s NHL value against high school opponents in Massachusetts?

9) Organizational needs on the day won’t be organizational needs when the player ripens.

10) OHL is not a dirty word.

11) BCHL stands for Below CHL.

Game #1-1 Habs & Bruins Summaries

Because it's playoff time, I think we need to look at more than just goals and assists. Here are the extended summaries for both the Habs and Bruins.





Montreal Canadiens

Despite what looked like a serial bombardment, no one actually comes out looking too badly. It's worth noting Plekanec had a heck of a game if he came out on top of Fenwick, since he was on the ice for plenty of possession against - this means he was on for plenty of blocked shots and shots for.


Boston Bruins

Most informative for the Bruins is the colouration of Fenwick and Ch +/-. they do not match. This largely shows what we all saw - that Boston had lots of shots and missed shots, but not that many chances. Kaberle was a particular standout in getting the balance wrong as he outshot the Habs, but got quite badly outchanced. They ;ll know this now, but will they be able to correct?


Thanks is due to NHL.com for tracking so many things and to Olivier at En Attendant le Nordiques who diligently tracks scoring chances for and against to share with all Canadiens fans.

Legend:
GP: Game played
G: Goals
A: Assists
P: Points
PM: [Goals for (ES + SH)] - [goals against (ES + PP)], aka plus/minus
Ch +/-: [Chances for] - [chances against] at ES
Fenwick: [Shots on and off net for] - [Shots on and off net against] at ES
Corsi: [Shots on and off net for + those blocked] - [Shots on and off net against + blocked shots] at ES

Pre-Draft Considerations

The NHL daft is tomorrow and the Canadiens, despite their best efforts to trade a slew of picks lately, still have some picking to do. As such, we’ll watch with mild interest as Timmins and his staff already put out to gardening leave select youngsters.

I’m looking through lists to tell you what I think. But until then, some general thoughts worth considering with regard to the draft:


Size still dazzles

I’ll admit it, you just can’t teach size. The problem in judging 18 year-olds is that you can never tell if they’ll be gentle giants or feisty midgets when faced with pro opposition (think Gionta vs. Pouliot). Yet size still dazzles a scout. But where one or two big guys will no doubt make creditable NHL careers from their selection, it seems to me many big first rounders also find “German hockey” far too quickly.


There’s a threshold between guy who has scored and goalscorer

I’m not exactly sure what it is, but there’s definitely a difference between a guy who happened to score goals in junior and a player with a true talent for it. Be wary of the 20-goal man with alleged incredible hands, as there’s more to goalscoring than hands (isn’t that right Andrei?). At a certain point though, scouting ceases to matter though. Just because a scout can’t put a finger on why a guy has scored 40 goals shouldn’t discourage people from taking a chance.


American defencemen are terribly overrated as a group

Always lining up an impressive group with size and apparent skill, the American Ds are often among the more prominent flops. It’s worth considering that big American D prospects are nothing new and that the US National team still doesn’t have a good defensive group t choose from. It may not be coincidence.


Swedish forwards underrated this year

On the opposite side of the coin, when have you known a Swedish generation to be totally bereft of know-how up front. Despite the perennial snub from the prognosticators (with the exception of the love in last year), the Swedish forwards probably deserve more respect than they get. Many, for example could do just as well as in the QMJHL if they cared for poutine over smoked herring.


Quebeckers play in a strange league

Picking Quebecois players is more difficult than pickng Western teens because they play in a league that is worlds apart from the NHL. People will always be wary of the Daigle scenario. But not to be ignored is the phenomenon that seems to be the Quebecois role player. Picking them out from the crowd, though. I’m glad I’m not charged with that task.


Everyone is compared to a successful NHLer

It must be human nature to look for the best possible scenario because there are always a lot of future Scott Stevens, Mark Recchis and Bryan Trottiers. The reality is, these comparisons have been bandied about for years on end. In fact, it might be useful to compile a database of what being the next Scott Stevens actually means for a prospect – that is, he’ll actually have a 98% chance of being the next Brent Bilodeau.


Trading up is probably a mistake

Scouting departments should take a good look in the mirror before trading up. Of course, there’s always the chance of getting caught up in the excitement of the day, but trading up means trading one gamble for another. It often means trading 2 or 3 gambles for one. Odds tell us that after pick 5-8 goes by, volume is the better strategy.


Organizational needs won’t be the same by the time the selected start playing pro

One never knows what surprises are around the corner for an organization. One year you have the Vezina, Hart goaltender of the future, a couple of years and no goalie picks later, you’re icing David Aebischer in crucial games. OK, it’s not the best example as Price and Halak were coming through, but you understand. Picking for organizational balance at a single draft is not my favourite tactic unless the cupboard is absolutely (and I mean Heino-Lindberg) bare. Instead pick the best players always and fill the cupboard the other 363 days of the year.

Winning The Game The Probability Of The Improbable

On February 10th, 2010, Lions in Winter carried this headline: Habs Put An Unlikely End To Caps' Streak.

It was a stumbling team beating a surging force. It was a more unlikely win than anything this Canadiens team faces now. The team was without Andrei Kostitsyn, Mike Cammalleri and Benoit Pouliot. The GM hadn't yet traded for Dominic Moore. Matt D'Agostini, David Desharnais and Ben Maxwell, they all played.

It now also stands as a prime example as to why the Canadiens have no course in giving up just yet, and neither do their fans.


You heard it here first

I don't Tobalev would ever claim to be prescient of outcomes. He merely takes some pride in learning from his experience. I like to think I am the same. If there's one thing that the internet has taught me, it is that "You heard it here first" is the most commonly uttered phrase (or some variation thereof) from sports fans.

This attitude is especially common come times like these, times where outcomes seem to be written in the stars. It was around in February as it is today:

After the game on Sunday most people thought that a loss tonight was a certainty. People, more interested in being right than supporting their team, were writing the Habs off and predicting 2 points, max, from this week. I can't, however, stress it enough how the Habs are the type of team that can do this. They can lose to the worst and can beat the best.

There must be a certain irony in quoting one's own material from months ago to prove how others can be wrong in these situations. It's not my point to prove our point of view, especially as I think that "Anything can happen" is about as vague a point of view as anyone can have. There's simply a frustration in me when all the fans I read and respect reach automatically and frantically for the "It's over, you heard it hear first" line. And, having learned from our loyal readers that a positive outlook is sometimes welcome in these hours of doom, we prefer only to support the team, their 45% chance of winning (or whatver it is) and the knowledge that there will be plenty of time for it to be summer when summer comes.


Reasons to put your hope on the line

Last season, the Canadiens found themselves in an elimination game against the top team in the East as well. At that time, we rallied for hope (and there was genuine hope). The situation was more dire than this. Down 3-0. No Andrei Markov. 10 straight losses to the Bruins. A Vezina goalie and a Norris defenceman to go with the top offense in the league.

This season is a bit different. For one thing, the Canadiens have rallied in games. A realist will say this series could be 2-2. Someone extremely optimistic would say it could be 3-1. That is nothing in and of itself, only wins count here, but at least we know the team has belief.

Another reason for hope is this game is taking place in Washington. The first time the Canadiens played there, Price played his best start of the autumn and the Canadiens won 3-2. They lost the return affair, but have since managed to take two games to OT in the Capitol city. The Habs haven't been slouches in Washington at all. If you take the Capitals home record seriously, then you'll know that the Habs have actually been near league-leading in their Verizon Centre play.

We have written and read about the Canadiens need to exploit Washington's weakness – their back end. I think having now experimented with two goalies (one small, one big) the coaches now know where the strategy lies. There is reason to hope that lessons learned from a 1-4 comeback, a 5-1 drubbing and a 6-3 will trickle through. I don't think even Jacques Martin can deny this now, and Montreal may actually set out on a gameplan that may even suit their forwards best – try to score as much as possible. The hope in this is that Pouliot might actually been unfettered, the Kostitsyns driven, the others right there with them.

There's also hope from other series in this spring's competition. The players watch results around the league as well and if they're anything like the rest of us, probably take some inspiration/comfort from what they see. Philly beating the Devils, Boston pushing Miller aside till now, LA running with Vancouver, Ottawa dogging out a win. Ottawa's win last night was of particular relevance. Ottawa took a defensive approach to facing some fantastic talent. For a game it worked. For three games, the lunacy of the thinking was exposed. Last night, the Senators just floored it. They took the lead, extended it and should have extended it more. When the Penguins stormed back and evened it up, the Senators never forgot that keeping the initiative was the key, and for 3 OT periods they pressed until they won.


The Montreal players can take a lot of hope from all this. They can learn from their experience of losing repeatedly only to step out some night later to look like a contender. They can draw form the experience of Markov (1-3 down before), Gomez and others who can explain the wackiness of playoff probabilities and certainties.

As fans, we can do the same. In fact, there's no point doing it any other way. As we've said, there'll be plenty of time for summer when it's summer. Nobody will care if you or I are right or wrong. Let that go. Enjoy the possibility of a win tonight.

Go Habs Go. GHG.

Habs Vs. Caps Beware The Comeback Kids

The Montreal Canadiens won an important game the other nigt in the lion's den, an arena where the Capitals had secured 30 wins on the season to go with 6 OTL (that's 66 of 82 pts). But as much as Habs fans don't want to hear it, it was only a game. Montreal beat Washington once in the regular season in DC as well, but that didn't prevent them from limiting their remaining losses to four.

The Washington Capitals of 2009-10 are one of the strongest teams to play in the Eastern Conference in some time. They didn't get lucky in all departments a la Boston Bruins 08-09 or squeak out a paltry 104 points to win the conference as the Habs did a year earlier. They won all those games despite their faults. They won all those games because their strengths can, if allowed to, truly overwhelm.


Comeback potential

Among all their talents, one of the most dangerous for the Capitals this season has been their ability to come back. Though resilience is a feature that endows all top teams through the years, the striking thing about these Caps is the degree to which they outshone their rivals in returning from deficit.



There are a few teams that managed to score first nearly as often as Washington (52 times), but all suffered massive loss of points when this occurred. Consider Washington's 8 regulation losses from 30 games in which the opponents grabbed a lead vs. Calgary's 21 losses from 32 or Philly's 25 losses from 33.

Where scoring first is a good omen for winning (only Florida allowed a sub-500 record from first goal scored positions), coming back from the opposite position really seems to separate the wheat from the chaff. Washington stands atop those teams, out-distancing San Jose this year by a healthy 7% and are the only team to be above true 0.500 (16W, 14L).



This second look at the comeback capability of the Washington Capitals is also telling. The 22 games in which they trailed after 2 periods ended in comebacks for at least a point on more than 50% of occasions (12/22 games). The Montreal Canadiens, who we've been calling battlers at times, or plucky, have only managed 8 true come backs from 33 opportunities. The Pittsburgh Penguins with their much vaunted captain only managed to climb back 10 times from 33 opportunities.


Games vs. the Habs alone

Even a limited sample, such as games against Montreal is enough to serve notice of this resilient tendency of the Washington opponent.

In Game 1 in Washington, the Habs had a lead going into the third and extended it midway through the period. The Caps scored late to make it a one goaler and only Price holding off the next 4 shots prevented OT.

Game 2 in Montreal was even more dramatic. The Habs are the team that mounted the initial comeback to lead from the 6th minute of period 3. Washington, undying as usual, pressed on, tied the game with 12 seconds left and won it on a shootout goal.

Game 3 in Washington was more of a wash, but the return game in Montreal again served warning of the offensive potential to undo mistakes. Lead after lead was clawed back, to the point that a 3-goal lead heading into the thrid period was negated from a Mike Green effort and 2 from Brooks Laich. Montreal won in OT for another critical point, but Washington were no pushover.


Lessons for the Montreal Canadiens

The Capitals are true standouts in this regard, and it speaks to their skill, their plan and most of all their attitude to games.

The playoff series is not unlike a game. As in games, the first strike does on average predict the likely victor. What the Canadiens must consider here, though, is that they are not playing an average opponent. They are not playing the New York Rangers (for whom 3rd period play is merely formality). No, the Capitals won't be down in the dumps over a series deficit because they don't look at deficits the same way that you or I do. For them, a goal against early is merely a bell to alert them to score one extra. A loss early will only serve the same purpose.

The main lesson I would stress from these numbers is that the Capitals must never be counted out. Never. Our team's experience alone must be enough to stress this, but to know they did it to everyone else (and probably to Florida every time) makes it even more resonant.


The way forward

I don't mean this piece to be a downer. I am thrilled the Montreal won this game. One game is one in the bank towards the four they seek. It's not meaningless. I intend as usual to merely level the ship. Expectations as to the outcome in this series haven't changed much for me with the win. I thought Montreal would win games in this series and like the chances of an upset. The order of the wins, however, is meaningless

For fans the way forward is to enjoy the improved play of our team. The way they played in the 60 minutes that counted (the last 60 minutes of game 1) was a revelation compared to recent outings. The way players adhered to a plan for the distance was encouraging. Positive too were the repeated incursions in to the Washington zone. Getting carried away can wait until after win #4.

For the team, I think the way forward has to be quick-thinking adaptation and shifting strategy. Double teaming Ovechkin was the right plan for a game, but teams don't post 121 points with so many from comeback efforts if they are so easily disarmed. The coaches must expect a change of strategy from their opponent.

I think Martin needs not only to be able to allow flexibility when Ovechkin shows up on longer and longer shifts, on different lines, or when Semin is placed with Backstrom and Knuble, but also to anticipate what a coach like Boudreau might do.


The first strike has landed. This series just got very interesting.

Go Habs Go.

Habs vs. Caps More Reasons To Be Positive

Numbers to consider:

46 games: 24-15-7, 55 points

That is the record of the Montreal Canadiens since December 17, 2009. It happens to coincide with the return of Andrei Markov. Prorated over 82 games, that's 98 point pace. That's 6 points less than the total the Habs posted 2 seasons ago to win the East. Many of these games were played with Pyatt on the first line.

What's my point?

Not sure. But I just want to point out that these numbers are as relevant as the whole season record, the record against the Caps, the record against playoff teams, the playoff record over the last 15 years. In short, not that relevant, certainly not predictive, but numbers.

This number doesn't only reflect Markov's return, but also finding the balance with goaltending starts, finding the right line combinations and the acclimatization of the newbies (notably Gomez). Is this the real Habs? As I said, the number can't predict that. All I'd say is that it's as least as relevant for me.

As the Canadiens skate for the last time ahead of the game in washington tonight, they'd do well to remember this. Ottawa did, Philly did, Colorado did.


Matching up well

Sometimes a team’s mix of players doesn’t work against the average opposition but is extremely well suited to facing a given team. Such was the case for the 2005-06 Canadiens (with Koivu) against Carolina in the 2006 playoffs. Losing Koivu created the necessary shift in the ground to make it the blowout it was predicted to be. If Koivu doesn’t get high-sticked, who knows – I’d wager the Habs would have won at least another game.

The Canes, of course went on to win the Stanley Cup. However, until they met Edmonton (another skating team) they didn’t face a test as stern as the Koivu-led Canadiens. What was true in 2006 may be true again with the Capitals. Like the Hurricanes, the Capitals play the game Montreal likes. Like the Hurricanes (going in with Gerber, anyway), the Caps are beatable at the back. The Capitals must be favourites for the Cup, but where they’d love to play Boston who can’t score and would struggle to use goaltending first as a strategy against the Caps firepower the Canadiens can score against undisciplined defences.

Another straw for Has fans to clutch at is that this team has been best at teams that open up at the back. Counter-attack offense is not built for the Devils who outwait the counter. It is built for teams like the Caps who go all in on offense and expose the last D-man for a break.

The Habs won't win if Pouliot and Cammalleri don't sort out their shooting. But if they do, the Caps will have a lot to think about.

Go Habs Go.

Habs Vs. Caps The Subjective Retrospective

By now you're knee deep in predictions and statistics trying to make sense of the belief you have in these Canadiens.

Statistics are good, and as you know, I like them very much. But it is not for me to trot out more of the same statistics days after they have been treated by those who got there first.

If you want to know about every element of the Canadiens vs. Capitals, 2009-10 edition then you should check out Habs Eyes on the Prize who knits together all the data for you in a few posts. The main analysis talks goals, assists, wins, losses and has the very handy link to video to jog the memory.

Robert has also delved into some of the minutiae of the game, including the very relevant shots, playing with the lead and the less useful Faceoff stats (a firm disbeliever in the importance of that 2% swing am I). All of this can be accessed on his main page today.

If you're looking for more than goals and assists, don't forget Olivier who tracks shooting and scoring chances. Game 1, Game 2, Game 3, and Game 4 vs. the Caps give a lot more food for thought. I'm sure he'll be piping up with an analysis in the coming days too.


Subjectivity to add colour to your day

It's possible to go through life looking only at stats. It makes things very black and white. I think however that most of you enjoy a little colour, else you wouldn't be reading our thoughts after games at all.

Colour is what allows to discern whether Sergei's three assist game was a great one or just a background performance, whether Carey letting in 5 goals in February was a battling time or just an average hurting game.

So for your pleasure, I offer the game reports from all 4 games this season (you can search the archives for the 8 other Washington games if you want), with what we said about players of the game, domes and such. Hopefully it will help you clinch the argument against that annoying Toronto fan who is supporting the Caps out of spite.

Game 1 (3-2 W, Nov 20): Good Start To Tough Weekend; Who Saw That Coming?



All you really need to know:
Tomas Plekanec - Game Puck
Dominant again. I wouldn't say that he was more noticeable than Ovechkin, but he was definitely in the same league. He scored a goal, picked up an assist and was once again our best on the PP and the PK. Can someone give this man the 'C'? Please.


Game 2 (3-4 L (SO), Nov 26): Massive 2nd Period Not Enough For Montreal



All you really need to know:
"The second period, however, was probably our best of the week (better than the third against Columbus by a hair I'd say) as we were too much for the Caps to handle. We carried that momentum into the third and drew a couple of penalties thanks to our strong play. We failed to score on a 5-on-3, but did get one before the second man came out of the box. Then we decided to see if we could hold on for the win. Gone was the strong offensive play only to be substituted by 'hope-we-can-stop-Ovechkin' defensive play. Letting a team like Washington see if they can score never seems to be a good plan."


Game 3 (2-4 L, Jan 5): Montreal Struggle To Impose Themselves in D.C.



All you really need to know:
"It was the first time in a long time that I felt the Habs looked smaller than their opponents as we not only were losing battles, but we were often hesitant to even chase loose pucks for fear of being over-powered. I don't know how many times I saw a Hab back down tonight from a Capital. Even our speed was outclassed tonight as we not only were beaten to most pucks, but we also never really seemed to give it our all."


Game 4 (6-5 W (OT), Feb 10): Habs Put An Unlikely End To Caps' Streak



All you really need to know:
"When you break down the Caps you see stunning offence, average D and below-average goaltending. When you make a game-plan against a team like that you must exploit those weaknesses - and that is what the Habs did. They found the chink in the armour and exploited it very well. What the Canadiens realized is that you can't really stop the Caps' offence. You can get up by 3, but you can't stop them. You can have Brodeur in nets, but they will not cease. So, the only way to beat a team like that is to open up and to try and out-score them."


Game Pucks

Plekanec, Hamrlik Gionta, S Kostitsyn


Domes

Plekanec (3), Cammalleri (3), A Kostitsyn, Pacioretty, Pouliot, Gionta, S Kostitsyn, Gomez

Hamrlik (3), Markov (2), Mara, Spacek, Gorges

Price (3), Halak (1)

Eastern Conference Playoffs Looking for Sweeps, Upsets and Regular season Records

A lot has been published about the optimal opponents for each team come playoff time. I don't want to theorize too much on the topic this time around. Instead, I offer you some data for you to chew on by yourselves:

First up is the head-to-head table for all possible contenders from the Eastern Conference this season (please note, OT/SO goals for/against not counted).



As you can see, most top teams deserve to be there as they have accrued points against playoff-bound rivals.

What you might also spot is that there are some curious results: both plum match-ups (New Jersey getting Pittsburgh, say) and ones to avoid (New Jersey getting Philly).


From this, you can piece together how well each team did solely against playoff teams from the East.



Of note here seems to be that Buffalo are in above their heads, and it seems to be at Ottawa's expense.


Finally, and probably most important for those in imminently scheduled playoff pools like me is the record against teams that they could possibly face in the first round:



Pittsburgh, leaving the standings behind, must be licking their chops for their first round entrance.

Covering The Draft From The Comforts Of Home

I think I must be the only Canadiens blogger I know not going to the Bell Centre in person for the draft. That doesn't mean I won't have plenty to say.

Though I'd love to be sipping overpriced Molson/Coors products in the stands, I actually think I'll be handier with the comments from my own living room. For one thing, I won't be forsaking the internet and, for another, I won't have to delete all the characters created by the impression of my forehead as I nod off during the inevitable boredom that is 30 people holding 10 minute discussions over 18 year olds.

If you want the live and authentic touch though (and feel no shame in shunning me, why would you?) then you should check out one of the equally excellent blogs that are:

The Daily Hab-It and Eyes On The Prize

Both Arpon and Robert will be there with full credentials (I hope that means cheaper beer?) and providing updates as the night wears, I mean rolls, on. As usual, if you prefer, you can just peek at the right-hand bar and see what they've updated with, as LIW shows that automatically now anyway...


Defining night

I had written momentous, but that would be making an assumption wouldn't it. One thing I am sure of, however, is that this night will give us a feeling of where this team is going for the next 5 years.

For one thing, we should find out whether Lecavalier will ever be a Montreal Canadien. We'll also find out if Bob Gainey still has the ability to make a good trade like he did way back when for Zubov. We'll discover if the Canadiens feel they need to nab one of the exceptional crop that is the top 8 in this draft class, and we'll find out how important the Habs feel the lack of scoring talent in the system is.

Should be fun.


18 and out

As for myself, I'll be hanging in with the anti-social Friday night TV (so says my wife) until the Canadiens selection at 18 or whenever that may be. Though it would be funny to see who the guaranteed bust of the draft will be (aka Detroit's first rounder), I think it's a diminishing return don't you? After all, I'm sure like the playoffs you'll all want to tune out for a bit once the CH is done and dusted in the first round.

Chalk that up as another plus for not being there in person – no underlying sense of responsibility to pretend to care about what the Flyers, Bruins and Flames might do.


Second round and beyond

I'm not sure anyone will be masochist enough to sit through and live-blog the whole thing, and I'm no exception there. I have compiled a list for interested readers to post when the first round goes to bed of players I've penciled in as Canadiens targets. I'll be posting that after the festivities.

Draft Week Montreal Canadiens' Woeful Draft Record A Complete Myth

Imagine you're sat at home on a cold winter's evening in Montreal chatting on the phone with your friend down in Barbados. You sit and listen patiently through all the grumblings about the weather (rain on Monday, too hot on Thursday) before signing off until next time.

That's what it must be like for fans in some NHL cities to read year after year about the Montreal Canadiens organization's horrible record when it comes to draft day.

Yes, it's all relative. And Montrealers live in a dream world where the draft should be a time for your GM to take his 4 first round picks (stockpiled from eager, yet unready, expansion GMs) and bring home a superstar by the year.

But really, we've all had time to adjust – 16 years if not more – and the idea that 3 NHLers is a good draft should start to sink in, I think. On the eve of this year's annual amateur amalgamation, I thought it was time to set things straight for fans of the bleu, blanc, rouge – to show just how good our managers have been over the last decades.

My system for this analysis was simple (possibly simplistic) – I looked at every player who played an NHL game or more this year and I looked at where that player came from. Here's what I found:

1) Montreal has drafted the highest number of 2008-09 NHLers

Team	Drafted players	GP	Avg GP	Pts	Avg Pts
Montreal	41	2096	51.1	841	20.5
Buffalo	39	2158	55.3	759	19.5
Colorado/Quebec	36	1638	45.5	579	16.1
San Jose	35	1444	53.5	553	20.5
New Jersey	34	1868	54.9	848	24.9

Montreal had 41 players from all rounds to Buffalo's 39 for first in absolute numbers of players. What's more the Canadiens were second in GP with 2096 vs. Buffalo's 2158 and second in points scored by those players with 841, only trailing New Jersey's 848 by 7 points.

These numbers are even more impressive when you consider Detroit only had 27 players drafted by them playing an NHL contest this year and some teams like Carolina, Vancouver and Minnesota (though on only 9 drafts) were at 19, 19 and 18 respectively.


2) Montreal second rounders and beyond outclass rivals picks by a long way

The media (and fans) in Montreal like to lambaste the general manager and the team for being pitiful on draft day, and some media bring up the same old chestnuts to discuss every single year. The story of first round draft picks gone missing (a tale from almost every team, by the way) is used to imply that Montreal isn't performing optimally on draft day.

Maybe so. But beyond that first round, no one team has really performed better. Everyone is really propagating a myth.

Non-first round picks

Team	Drafted players	GP	Avg GP	Pts	Avg Pts
Montreal	32	1653	51.6	662	20.7
Buffalo	27	1420	52.6	514	19.0
Colorado/Quebec	26	1131	43.5	366	14.1
New York Rangers	26	1143	44.0	457	17.6
Detroit	25	1196	47.8	702	28.1

Montreal's management managed to select 32 players (more than an entire roster-worth) to play in the 2008-09 season. The next closest rivals were all in the twenties. Montreal also led in games played by non-first round picks and only trailed Detroit (courtesy Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen and Lidstrom) in points scored by those players.


3) Montreal isn't that bad in the first round either

Considering the furor, you'd think Montreal were the absolute worst at picking an NHLer from the first round. never mind their success in other rounds.

In actual fact, the Habs sit tied at 15th with Toronto and Carolina with 9 first round picks skating in the league today.

The leaders (believe it or not) are Phoenix/Winnipeg with 14 NHLers (a lot of good that has done them) followed by New Jersey, the Isles and Washington at 13 apiece.

When you consider the Habs have only had the benefit of 4 top 10 picks in the past 20 years (and made all but Terry Ryan stick), then it's not such a bad record.
Take top 10 picks away and the Canadiens are 11th best (tied with Toronto, San Jose and LA with 6 picks playing).

Non-top 10 picks overall, and the Habs once again lead. 38 players vs. 37 for Buffalo, 34 for Colorado/Quebec and 31 for NJ (the rest under 30).


4) The Habs have been consistent over time

Of the 41 Canadiens draft picks who suited up this year, 21 were drafted before the millennium and 20 were drafted 2000 or later.

Though not first when looking from 2000 on, the Canadiens do still boast the third highest harvest of NHL able draftees since the last expansion. Their 20 puts them in a draw with Edmonton and Buffalo and just behind Columbus and Pittsburgh. Vancouver (Hi Burkie!) and Carolina continue to plumb the depths with 8 and 11, respectively.


5) The Habs have been most successful at the defensive end of the ice

As to be expected given their recent (and long-time) strategy of picking defenders, the Canadiens have been at their most excellent when not picking forwards in the draft.

When it comes to goalies the Canadiens are right near the apex. 5 of the goalies they selected over the past 15 years played this season. All five, including Price, Vokoun, Halak, Garon and Theodore were at times the starter of their respective teams. Only Colorado/Quebec, also with 5 (Thomas, Fernandez, Budaj, Johnson and Denis) can surpass them.

On D the Canadiens draft picks also stood out with a whopping 14 playing at least one NHL game this season. Most were regulars with only Matt Carkner, Ryan O'Byrne, Patrice Brisebois and Yannick Weber playing on the margins. The one team to outdo the Canadiens was the Buffalo Sabres who drafted 3 sets of NHL defense line-ups with 17 draftees in all. Standouts from the Sabres draft classes included Dennis Wideman, Brian Campbell and Keith Ballard. No Markov, though.


So, it seems Montreal is quite good at drafting after all.

If Montreal has not succeeded it is not for an abject failure in the scouting system, but perhaps a distaste for risk. After all, when you can go into rounds 2 to 9 of a draft and say - "we'll come out with 3 players who'll be suiting up in the next 5 years if we go with sound strategy" - who would go with less?

The problem is, as Jack Todd rightly pointed out this morning in the Charlottetown Guardian:

Sooner or later, you have to hit a few gems like Carter, Getzlaf and Parise if you want to go from also-ran to the top of the heap. The Detroit Red Wings, everyone’s model of the perfectly run franchise, drafted Henrik Zetterberg with the 210th pick of the 1999 draft, Pavel Datsyuk with the 171st pick in 1998 and Nik Lidstrom 53rd in 1989 — that’s how you build a great team.

So blame it on cautiousness, bad luck or getting outworked in free agency. Our woes don't come from a failure at the draft...

Playoff ComedyThe Bruins Bias

I say comedy because i laughed at this:

The Bruins beat the Habs and they didn't even have their A game. On the other side of the coin, Montreal pretty much brought all they had. And still lost.

Apparently that was all we had. The Bruins didn't even try.

Russ at Bruins Report has a good blog, and we've had good spars in the past. His post last night, however, has nothing in it I can agree with.

Isn't it funny how the same game can look so different to fans wearing two different sets of distorting lenses.

What I really didn't understand was how us playing tough was pathetic, yet their "toughness" was so laudable. I guess he wrote the piece to fit the title he chose beforehand...

Habs : BruinsThe Balance Of Power

Having been pressed to the full at work lately, I haven't had a s much time for a preview as I would have liked. I am hoping that some of my prep can be slowly leaked through as the series goes over the next week or longer.


But as I'm sure you're all as excited as we are for the first meaningful game of the 2008-09 campaign (barring that one where we had to get the last point), so I thought I'd do an abridged little preview to ready the tastebuds.

I would start this post with a proviso before going any further. If I wanted to look through the teams and their statistics and come up with a preview that could have put the Bruins ahead in every category, I could have nearly done it. However, as this is a Canadiens blog and I am charged with doing something a little less mainstream than everyone who got their previews in hours ago anyway, I have managed to find some categories where I feel nos Habitants have an edge over the cavemen.

Without further ado, here are the battles:

1) Top line – Tanguay/Koivu/Kovalev vs. Lucic/Savard/Kessel

This is a tough call. The first problem is that the Habs top line have looked good, but only for a handful of games. The Bruins top line, most notably Kessel and Savard have looked good the entire season (almost).

I think even the most optimistic Habs fan has to give this one to the Bruins in terms of offense.

I will say this, though. The Canadiens top line is made up of three players who can make a top line on their own, just by virtue of being written in. The Bruins top line is not a top line without Savard. As such, it will be easier to smother the Boston line (for ease in targeting the coverage) – a lesson that could be straight from Boston's play book of 2008 on Kovalev.


2) The secondary scoring

There is no doubt the Bruins had more success here this season. But you know what, how many career-best seasons did they have there? The Canadiens by contrast had decent secondary scoring despite pitiful stretches from all their second guns.

The question is whether the momentum in the playoffs will shift or not. Last season, Tomas Plekanec was quite possibly the best forward on our team in the second half of the season. But a change in momentum nullified his input in the playoffs. This season, the Bruins are toting a few Plekanecs in their line-up.

It's for that reason that I am giving the edge to the Canadiens here. It must be the Felipe Alou fan in me, but Kostitsyn has to break out, so does Plekanec. Higgins and Latendresse could also. They will have to to prove me right. Else, I could right be called a blind fool. My gut simply tells me Kostitsyn > Recchi, Pleks > Krejci, Gui > Wheeler and so on.


3) The checking forwards – Higgins vs. Axelsson

Somewhat fortuitously, Chris Higgins seems to have fallen into the role he was born to play. No longer forced into situations where he must produce, he can concentrate on being that intelligent and anticipatory player we all know and love. If I'm Marc Savard, I wouldn't relish a shift with this guy watching me at all. I don't think Koivu gives a toss if Axelsson is on the ice or not. Canadiens win this battle is Chris is deployed in the right way.


4) Top defenceman – Hamrlik vs. Chara

I could make some cockamamie tale about Hamrlik up here, but he does not measure to Chara in stature, skill or even experience. Boston wins this battle in a landslide.

However, if (big if) Markov can come back and be Markov; I feel that Andrei is the best defender in the East and the third behind Lidstrom and Niedermayer in this league. In that case, the Habs would have my edge.


5) The rest of the D

Some Canadiens fans have been kidding themselves when they say the Habs win this battle. Aaron Ward, for example, has oodles of Cup experience and was a main reason our number one line went AWOL last spring. He is what Komisarek should be and isn't. Then you have the steady, simple and obedient play of the others that helped bring (nay, brought) the Jennings trophy home to Boston this season.

Are the slow? Perhaps a bit. Are they deficient in the offensive skills department? Mostly, but Jennings doesn't care about that (especially when the forwards go second in the league on goals). Boston's defenders are a better group than the Habs, Hamrlik and Bouillon or not.


6) Backstops – Price vs. Thomas

Tim Thomas had one of those seasons. He should win the Vezina trophy. But you know what? Huet had one of those seasons and he was let go for nothing. I would never want to write Thomas's season off, but had Carey Price even had a semblance of a good second half, he'd have the edge here. As it is, Boston wins.


7) Discipline

Here's one of those categories. Can it carry as much weight as the others? Probably not, but it is a factor. It is a category that the Canadiens will win, I'll tell you why: they need to.

As such, discipline for the Canadiens will be written into the game plan. A lot was made of the Canadiens indiscipline in the regular season at times, but so many times that indiscipline was nothing of the sort. It was puck over the glass or non-call, or stick brush the waist. If you exclude Mike Komisarek from consideration, I actually felt the Habs on the whole were quite a disciplined bunch for most of the season.

I'll tell you why else: Boston's identity requires them to come out and bang. Sure, during the regular season the Bruins fans will tolerate a clean game vs. the Wild. But come playoffs, vs. the abhorrent Canadiens, no mercy will be tolerated. A goal must be answered with a fight. A shot with a cross-check. It's written in their constitution. We saw it a mere week ago.


8) Coaching – Gainey vs. Julien

Only one of these two men will be nominated for the Jack Adams trophy this season. However, only one made brilliant and brave decisions to turn his team around.

Claude Julien sure looked good again at the helm of a team that made it happen. Bob Gainey looked barely adequate at times. Even so, only one of these coaches has won any significant series in the playoffs (either as player or coach).

On top of that, Julien remains unique as a coach for twice being fired from teams when sporting a winning record – first the 19-16-6 Canadiens of 2006, then the 47-24-0 Devils of 2007. That Devils firing undertaken by a GM without peer and instigated based on the testimony of the best goaltender and many of the best students of hockey in the game, tells me all I'll ever need to know about Claude. Gainey is a better coach. Canadiens edge the Bruins here.


9) Extra gear

I'll list players I know have an extra gear on both sides:

Koivu, Kovalev and Mark Recchi.

Not that they won't be happy with status quo, as the East winners, but the Bruins will mostly have to make do with that. They do not have a Koivu, not many teams do. They have Recchi, but even he can't reach Kovalev control of a game. Of course, this is dependent on the players actually stepping up the rate. But since we can count on Koivu, the Canadiens already have the edge.

The question that lingers here is do any other players have that gear? Well, one could make an argument for Aaron Ward, and maybe if you're generous Chara or Schneider, but beyond that, it's youngsters with little history to go on. Both teams have intriguing possibilities like Kessel, Wideman, Kostitsyn and Lapierre.


10) Preparation

The Bruins prepared for these playoffs by practicing winning and not much else. They came back a number of times from goal deficits, but they never had to deal with a losing streak, a split in the dressing room, or things generally not going their way.

The Canadiens, if you can look at it in a positive light, earned their 3 credits this semester. They've had lessons on every topic and in the end they pulled it out. Bad losses, they've had a few to recover from. Non-existent goaltending, they're well versed. In a nutshell, nothing could happen to the Canadiens in game one or two that hasn't happened to them already. Nothing could rattle them more than they've been rattled. The Bruins? I'm not so sure.

Even so, the Bruins way of preparing is tried and tested. If they win, they know how to win again. If they go down a goal, they know they more often than not come back. If things go their way, as the experts predict they will, they'll know full well what to do with the situation.


The tally

Even at a stretch, it's hard to find things other than faith to put the Canadiens ahead. On the tally, I have a draw, but in fairness the Bruins have captured the points cards here with all defenders, goaltenders and top line scoring going to them.

We knew there would be ifs for our Habs, and they are big ones. But if Markov ever came back, we'd pull closer. If Koivu and Kovalev both play like the men-possessed they can be, then even a giant Slovak can't stop them. If Kostitsyn scores a few early in the series, the Bruins will have a lot of reorganisation to do. If Higgins is deployed as a shadow and plays like he has been, he could be a major factor. Dare I say, if Price actually plays like he has done in the past (the good times), then playing a goon line won't look so smart.

And, if dogmatic Julien is forced out of his comfort zone, well then we're on our way.

What's right for Price?

While Carey Price's name is much more fun to use in headlines and such, I just cannot understand why every columnist, analyst and blogger I have read has refused to look at the recent changes from the other perspective – that is: "Halak recalled". I could say the same about Locke/Chipchura, but the overwhelming focus on Price from the blogosphere has led me to focus on that story.


Want to know what I mean? Have a look at some of these headlines, quotes and links (if you haven't already):

A Pricely demotion – Chipchura and Price feel it in their wallet, but can develop down on the farm (John Kernaghan)
January 10 – The Hamilton Spectator

This demotion is the first downward blip on Price's performance graph. He has excelled at all levels, the world juniors, the AHL and impressed early in his rookie NHL season.

Ça fait partie de l'apprentissage (Benoit Brunet)
January 9 – RDS

Mais si à un certain moment, la direction du Canadien trouvait que sa progression ralentissait, c’est une bonne idée de lui permettre de jouer la plupart des parties à Hamilton.

Breaking News from the WTF?!? Department (Panger 76)
January 9 – Four Habs Fans

Ostensibly it's because the Habs have few back-to-back games plus the All-Star breat in January, but it could also be motivated by TFS's less than stellar performance against Washington. Or, it could be a showcase for Halak in hopes of garnering some interest in a deadline deal.

Carey Takes His Lumps (Robert L)
January 10 – Eyes On The Prize

This demotion, if one chooses to see it as such, could either be seen as a present lack of faith in Price, or simply as a careful handling of a precious jewel.

After first questioning the move as harsh, I considered the big picture.The Canadiens can ill afford to mess up on the best propect to come into the organization in eons. I'd rather they take cautious chances with him, over risky ones. The Habs organization surely knows Price better than anyone, and knows and understands what is needed by him in this trying time.

Price: à manipuler avec soin (Bertrand Raymond)
January 9 – Journal de Montreal

Price est tellement important pour l'avenir de l'organisation qu'il faut prendre le temps de lui expliquer ce qu'on tente de faire avec lui. Durant son stage à Hamilton, il faudra lui parler fréquemment, sonder ses états d'âme et vérifier l'état de son moral.

Many articles on this topic mention Halak once or twice. Panger concedes Price may have been demoted to make room for Halak, but only so he can be traded (a possibility of course). Brunet and Robert L don't mention Jaroslav at all! If I hadn't already used the title, I might have called this piece: "Halak of respect".

Look. Halak is good. Very good. It is premature to write him off, just as it is premature to call Price the saviour of the franchise.

In a very good career so far, Carey Price's crowning achievements were afforded to him by virtue of a) being Canadian and getting to play on the best junior team in the world and b) Jaroslav Halak playing so well he was called up to the Canadiens and then to the Slovakian National team.

Is it conceivable then, that Halak could turn out to be better than Price?

Maybe you should ask the Blackhawks how sticking with first rounder and WJC super goalie Jimmy Waite turned out for them. Who was that other guy anyway?

I would wager that if Price were the 9th round pick and Halak the first rounder, we'd have different headlines. All stats remaining the same, I'd even go so far as saying that if Halak were 6'3" from Western Canada and Price 5'11" from Eastern Europe, the press would be singing Hallelujahs for the long awaited promotion.

Consider a similar set of Habs players for a minute:

– one large American offensive defender picked in the first round
– the other a relatively small, Eastern European 6th rounder

Pundits and analysts around the team lauded the first round selection of a defender at the time, and continued to tout the prospect as he progressed impressively through the minors. The other player quietly made his way over to North America, played well in the minors and earned a call up one day to the NHL.

Andrei Markov never really looked back, overcoming his small stature, language barrier and low draft position to blossom into the best defenseman on the team and the Eastern Conference (some young superstars would say the league). Ron Hainsey never stuck with the Habs, was left unprotected and while doing an admirable job at growing into a very good offensive defenseman, would never be confused with the best in the league.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that this promotion had nothing to do with Price. But it is Price relative to Halak that led to the decision. And, as untenable an idea as it may be to some, the Habs may have a plan for someone other than Carey Price, maybe even lowly Halak has a plan sketched out for him. Watching Gainey and his staff make their moves, others' opinions be damned, makes me certain that they operate this way. If not, Chipchura would have just been benched for a game and Locke would not have received a reward he was promised. In so far as the Canadiens goaltending docket, they seem to be making decisions in stages (as well they should).

When you consider our goaltending in the future, dream of a solid man back there, for certain. But, before you see 31 instead of 41, also try to picture what it would be like if some night in February, Hainsey and the Canadiens were trying to kill off a penalty against the Andrei Markov orchestrated Blue Jackets powerplay.