Senators vs. Canadiens: The LIW Analysis

The playoffs are upon us. Before settling into your playoff chair adorned by items of superstition, let's take a moment to assess this series coolly and calmly.

We know the Habs handled the Senators to a 2-1-1 record this year. Oh wait, what's that you say? The Sens were 2-1-1 too? Oh dear, this could be close. let's look:

Subban Accomplished Nothing? Let's See

I understand the emotions of a new hockey season, and I can relate to those that are upset about a certain 23 year-old turning down perfectly good money to play a game on ice.

But in the past day, the rhetoric has taken a turn for the worse. The reaction to Subban's verbose response to Stubbs' question: "why aren't you signed yet?" Some of the media and talking heads on RDS in particular have come out in force to detract from PK Subban and make the claim that the little guy hasn't accomplished anything yet.

Quite.

A Study In Contrasts Montreal's Draft In Context

Friday and Saturday was the first oasis in the desert of hockey fan summer. With rumours and trades and picks and news to comment on, the draft added some optimism for those of us desperately wanting next season to end so we don’t have to call the Bruins Stanly Cup Champions any longer.

The draft was interesting for Habs fans. For those most optimistic of cheerleaders, each pick was a reason to celebrate, as usual. For those with feet a little closer to the ground, the Canadiens did OK – nothing more. Everything’s hunky-dory on this particular caravan route.

But like hockey games, what your own team does on a given night (day) is really only one part of the equation. Taking 35 shots is great but not if you let up 48 in doing it. So too the draft. In isolation the players we picked all sound great (like all prospects tend to), yet when we start to look at which prospects were left aside (all also getting good reviews) and what our chief rivals did on the very same day, the picture gets a little murkier.

My study in contrasts on this day pits our Montreal Canadiens against their closest neighbours, the Ottawa Senators.

Outwardly, the teams are in different situations at the end of this season. Ottawa in full rebuild. Montreal in a holding pattern waiting to contend. Ottawa still searching for a goalie. Montreal watching as Price garners many a Vezina (and Hart) vote.

But outward appearances can be deceiving and both teams also have other similarities.

Both, for instance, have high quality farm operations feeding them players. The Hamilton Bulldogs play to win and are perennial producers of players who now reflect that attitude. The Binghampton Senators, with their mix of AHL vets and Sens hopefuls just won the Calder Cup.

Both teams most intriguing prospect has emerged in the last two seasons at the back end. PK Subban in Montreal was a pleasant surprise from the second round of a recent draft. Erik Karlsson was the Sens most consistent player of the season.

Both teams, in the light of day, have a lot of trouble scoring goals. Montreal managed to post up respectable totals through the regular campaign, but even in late winter sometimes struggled to really score when it mattered and certainly weren’t burying teams. Ottawa scored the least goals in the whole NHL this last year. Neither team can really boast a sure-fire scoring phenom in the system to correct this problem short- or long-term.

So in terms of free agent needs, the teams stand apart. Ottawa needs much to hope to contend. Montreal seeks a piece or two. But in terms of needs five years from now, apart from Carey Price, the team needs don’t look all that different (though Carey Price is not some trivial piece). Interesting then that two general managers took such contrasting approaches to dealing with what could have at the outset been the same shopping list.


First round

Montreal: Nathan Beaulieu (D)
In every preview I read, Nathan Beaulieu went before pick #17. So, if scouts are to be trusted, and I suppose they must, Montreal picked the best player available. What’s more, Nathan played in the QMJHL and has a name that will have placated at least those Nationalist fans who don’t own a computer.

My personal view is that this was a safe pick. Perhaps too safe. As you know I’m not fond of picking defencemen in the first round, not because I don’t like defencemen (I do), rather because I think it’s harder to pry a scoring forward from a rival down the road.

Beaulieu may well turn out to be very good, but because Montreal will have PK Subban and Andrei Markov, he may be a luxury item. Trade him you say. Well, how much do you get for a defenceman who can score and play the back end? A second rounder if he’s as good as Wisniewski?

Ottawa: Mika Zibanejad (F), Stefan Noesen (F), Matt Puempel (F)
In every preview I read, Zibanejad and Noesen went lower than they were picked. And I explained why I didn’t favour Puempel before. If it were one pick from these vs. Beaulieu, 6 out of 10 scouts would have to say Montreal got better value (if they were true to their assessments). But on the whole, Ottawa’s first round was made better for continuity of strategy. Although I’m sure they’d like another partner for Erik Karlsson (and David Rundblad), they identified value in getting offensive players with skill and an actual knack for scoring (not a potential knack) and picked accordingly.

Between the three players, I think the Sens will have found two NHLers. I still think Noesen was the savviest pick of the draft.

Winner: Ottawa
It would have taken a lot for Montreal to outdraft Ottawa in Round 1 of this draft. Volume wasn’t in their favour. Ottawa didn’t slip, and Montreal played too safe in my opinion for this to be anything but an Ottawa victory.


Second and third rounds

Montreal: 2 fourth round picks
Montreal traded their third rounder for two later picks. This is a great, great move. By round three teams are far apart on their assessments of the players and their own needs. Most times, one would be unlucky to just miss a player earmarked for a pick in the third round or later. Two for one is a bargain. Heads up from Gauthier.

Ottawa: Shane Prince (F), Nikita Filatov (F)
Offense, offense and more offense. Sticking to the script, Bryan Murray and his team delivered more on their mandate. Prince was 13th in OHL scoring with a jump of 58 points. A hometown 67 to boot, he was worth taking a chance on.

Filatov is different. He has issues and I can see why he would be available for a third rounder. But the Senators in their current form have nothing to lose on this trade. Their lineup last spring was an AHL team and Filatov won’t be anything but an improvement, regardless of how often he shows up for shifts. The upside of the trade being as huge as it is, it’s a win from the Senators standpoint.

Winner: Ottawa
Despite not yet drafting a single defender, Ottawa is running away from Montreal in this draft. Volume again is the main factor, but there are moves here that Montreal would have made if they could have been in the position. Gauthier did well, but like the 35 shot generating team, did he do enough in the lead up to this draft to make the most of the picks he had round 3 and up? Will we be fretting over how cheaply Filatov was when free agency lands us our eventual Pouliot replacement?


Fourth and fifth rounds

Montreal: Josiah Didier (D), Olivier Archambault (F), Magnus Nygren (D), Darren Dietz (D)
Finally a forward! Olivier Archambault is full of potential (apparently), but flags go up for veterans of two junior seasons whose profile still relies heavily on their AAA information. Other than Archambault, the picking was on message for the day for Gauthier too: “We could never have too many offensive defencemen”.

The thrill about Didier seems to be that he was ranked so low 6 months ago, that his 108 final ranking (where he was picked) was deemed a temporary stop on his way up. To me, it seems like another safe pick, one in the mold of Timmins’ safest. Didier isn’t even in college but will be, so his contract won’t be on the books and his name could easily go the way of Stejskal or Pateryn without an eyelash being batted. It seems to me like this is the way scouts like it.

I can be more positive about Nygren and Dietz. Nygren is already a playing pro. He shoots right and has clearly established himself at age 21 on a good team. He’s a safe pick in a way too, because at 21 one already knows more about him. But this kind of safe sits better with me vs. the ability to “sweep a pick under the rug” kind of safe.

Clearly the Canadiens were watching Duncan Siemens. The Dietz pick proves that. And, their homework on Siemens produced a pick. If I were a betting man, I’d put more money on Dietz to don the Habs sweater then any pick in this draft other than Beaulieu.

Ottawa: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (F), Fredrik Claesson (D)
Ottawa took a Swedish defender and a QMJHL forward too. Pageau was 16th in QMJHL scoring, but 3rd in the playoffs. The small Quebecois is also local to Ottawa (Gatineau) and represents another well-taken gamble for the Sens. Claesson is a defensive Dman (already), though a youngster and a 5-game pro. Not too worried about missing this Swede.

Winner: Draw
Ottawa scooped Montreal on Pageau and forced the much bigger Archambault gamble. For this Gauthier can be chastised, as he was a mere pick away from #96. But Montreal did better in getting Nygren, who has real credentials behind him already and did amazingly to get Dietz who I think is as good as 5th rounders get.


Sixth and seventh rounds

Montreal: Daniel Pribyl (F), Colin Sullivan (D)
Two picks and two totally different approaches.

In Pribyl, the Habs take a flyer on a raw prospect from a league and a country that is way out of favour with scouts and GMs. To me, Pribyl is a bit like Avtsin. One really can’t tell what the stats mean, but the package on paper looks great. With a sixth rounder, a team should be doing these things, so kudos to Gauthier and Timmins for surprising us all.

In Sullivan, the Habs gave their nod to scouting consensus. Sullivan was a highly-ranked, yet overlooked American. Another smoothe-skating offensive-minded D (these seem so common in the minors, where are they in the NHL?), Sullivan is another safe pick in my eyes.

I will say that Ondrej Palat was taken by the Lightning with the 208th pick. We’re talking 4th leading scorer in the QMJHL – 39 goals. I’d chalk Colin Sullivan as a massive waste for this reason alone.

Ottawa: Darren Kramer (F), Max McCormick (F), Jordan Fransco (D), Ryan Dzingel (F)
A big guy, a couple of scoring USHLers and a decent WHL defender. These are late round picks, but in Dzingel, it feels like the Senators gambled again and may come away with something. Consider that Dzingel in his second year in the USHL scored 23 goals and 67 points (one may remember a certain Habs first rounder scoring 21 goals and 63 points in the same league to rave reviews).

Winner: Montreal
Despite missing a big opportunity with the 7th round pick (Palat), the Habs still kept their tradition of making interesting and daring picks in the late rounds. By that, of course, I mean Pribyl. Of all 6 players selected by Montreal and Ottawa, he’s the only one we’d really expect to see in a prominent role. Ottawa meanwhile filled in the blanks, opting for slightly less flashy options to balance their first few rounds.


Overall draft: Montreal vs. Ottawa

Ottawa came out of Draft 2011 with a better crop than Montreal did. Part of this was due to volume and earlier picks. However, this isn’t the whole story. By sticking to a single strategy (and a sound one in my opinion) of picking for the rarest commodity – scorers – Ottawa came away from draft day with a stable of names from which a reasonable person could see two or three legitimate scorers emerging. Montreal on the other hand may have picked the third member of the new Big Three, but with what we know of contracts and current depth charts at best would only have picked up a 5th and 6th Dman as well as some trade chips.

Archambault and Pribyl were the Habs gamble to try and fill in gaps left by Maxwell, Trunev, Sergei, Grabovski and others in the offensive depth chart, but they really do pale when stacked beside Zibanejad, Noesen, Puempel, Prince, Pageau, etc.


So that’s it Habs fans. I think our team had an average draft. There was no Fischer pick or Tanguay trade to mar the face of it, but nor did the Habs make great strides to get ahead of their rivals for 2015.

There’s nothing wrong with average. And average can sure up the foundation, as it surely will. But to constantly look at everything in isolation when teams like the Senators (and others) are making real noise on draft day belies the nature of this league.


The next oasis in this desert is free agency, I hope we get a better spot to take a drink…

What's In A Name? PK Subban Must Feel NHL Playoff Debut

karl c.
1. man (male human)
2. husband
3.(male) member of a work force, employed to perform some particularly heavy or physically demanding job

PK Subban has been recalled for the Canadiens as a replacement to Jaroslav Spacek, and hopefully an on-ice replacement for Marc-Andre Bergeron. I applaud the move by Gauthier on the eve of the Washington showdown. It shows hope, tactical thinking and an acknowledgment of how winning in the new NHL may be changing.


Karl: Swedish for NHL-ready

Karlsson, Carlson, Pernell Karl. All three young defenders making an impact in professional leagues long before perhaps it was expected of them. But what’s in a name?

The name Carl/Karl seems to be found in many languages and has many meanings. For hockey etymologists, the roots of most interest come from the hockey hotbed of Sweden. As I noted above, the name Karl in Sweden means man, or thereabouts. Notes on the origins of the name go further, talking about connotations of manliness (to the extent that it is frowned upon by believers in gender equality) and of of possessing abilities to perform certain tasks.

According to the wiktionary, you can use Karl in an expression: karl för sin ... (with some attribute). This denotes someone who is up to par with his role, and is able to perform at least by some minimal standards on his own. Karl för sin hockey is quite apt in this case.


Leveraging young talent

I don’t want to criticize what the Canadiens did with Subban this season, I think it was right. But there is an onus on a team with its collective back against the wall to evaluate all options and come up with the best solution – whatever it takes. In this case, whatever it takes means calling up the mercurial scoring talent from the recently conquering Hamilton Bulldogs after his 9 points in 6 AHL playoff games.

Those with fear in their hearts as they think of a free-roaming Subban coming in and throwing a wrench in the works need only remember two things:

1) We already have a wrench in the works, so unless MAB and PK play together we’re no worse off
2) Teams around the league have shown that going against the conventional wisdom that Dmen age like a fine wine can be bucked with success

We don’t need to even look far for inspiration.

Our nearest rivals and underdogs in arms, the Ottawa Senators, just successfully initiated their defenceman of the future (Erik Karlsson) by entrusting him to play in all situations. His recent playoffs show that the 19-year-old has learned enough to hold his own, even if he does show plenty of room for improvement.

Even closer for now, is John Carlson. Like his namesake in Ottawa, Carlson has made a clean start to his NHL career – he currently tops Capitals defencemen in playoff scoring.

Watching Karlsson and Carlson has been a learning experience for me. As a firm adherent to the notion that rookie defenders can come and see me when they are 25 (coloured quite significantly by years of watching the Habs, no doubt), these recent upstarts have made me question these beliefs. Karlsson with a K was lively and creative from the Ottawa blueline and simply found avenues through the Penguins defenders that others may just be too jaded to consider. He looks like the best defender going forward in Ottawa and doesn't make me think of early hainsey much at all. Carlson with a C has been a standout too by skating out of trouble and confidently playing the game to win. If the Caps didn't have names on their shirts, I think most Norris voters would think this guy they'd voted for.

In both cases, I think that the brash confidence of the young draftee is showing through. Both youngsters have come through the ranks with success upon success. Neither has been tainted too deeply yet by the terror of losing. This played to their advantage this season and these playoffs as they play from pure instinct – something that is sometimes lacking in defenders.

For me, both successful career launches reinforce a trend that some younger players can play with the big boys, it’s just a matter of identifying which ones.


Enter then Pernell Karl Subban, The clear star of the Canadiens propect pool last season, NHL-capable based on his showings in September, and the leader and dynamo for the dominant Hamilton Bulldogs in the AHL so far this season. As the Canadiens sit at the edge of the precipice that is a summer too long, P Karl’s promotion was a question on the tip of many tongues.

As much as Karlsson or Carlson, it seems that PK Subban is ready to play with the NHL men, to test his smoothe skating and his bottomless energy at the top level. We know the boy can score, we know the boy can pass and we know he can win. The question that remains is whether he can be mature enough, sophisticated enough to play in the man’s league when weak hockey players are sent back to the career counselor. Players across the league, his Bulldog excellence and a name that his parents borrowed from Viking marauders suggest he’ll be just fine.


For those interested in getting more re-acquainted with Subban, I recommend reading this article from an admirer in Manitoba Moose country for a start.

2008 Canadiens Entry Draft Preview

The draft is about to start, there's a new scoring phenom coming out of the CHL, the next pick isn't shabby with a big and able defenceman from Ontario likely to be picked next. The draft is deep and the Russian star of the day might not get a look in the top 5. Meanwhile the Habs are mired down in the 20s for their pick. No luck, right?

That was 1993. Daigle was the can't miss at the time. Chris Pronger was that able defenceman. All the talk of Viktor Kozlov only got him selected 6th. The Canadiens, fresh off a Stanley Cup snagged the third best player in the first round with the 21st pick. Not only that, Saku Koivu has gone on to become a Canadiens icon and the second-longest serving captain in team history.

Here and now, it's the Stamkos draft. Steve is the talk of the place, but is he a sure thing? If anyone is thinking of giving the unequivocal yes, then maybe they should think again. First overall means nothing about your future career. Scouting of Stamkos provides reports that certainly project the likelihood of him being a star int he league higher than any of his peers, but the reports did the same for Daigle. Ottawa, in hindsight might have preferred Pronger, Kariya or Koivu.

What we need
There is no doubt about what the Canadiens need. For me it is a winger who can score (big or small). If he's big and can score, all the better, but scoring is what matters. The problem is the Canadiens need that player now. The player they select on the weekend may not be ready for another 4-5 seasons. The Habs have to address the need for that winger by other means than hoping an 18-year old will be our saviour next season.

As such, the Canadiens needs get rejigged. assuming the Habs do address the need there with a relatively young first-line scorer, then that will no longer be a need. So what will?

The answer is simple, and has been the Canadiens draft strategy for a while. The Canadiens need good players, the best prospects. When Trevor Timmins gives his post-draft interview and explains that they took the best player available in their estimation, they will have done their jobs. If they draft with positional or biometric shackles like some teams do, then they will be imitating the wrong teams (i.e., not the Red Wings).

The first round

I won't pretend that I know everything about the players in all the lists and profiles I've been reading. But sometimes a player just gives me a feeling. It's a product of the name, the size, the stats (in the context of where he plays, of course). Once in a while I am right about this too. As Tobalev will attest, in my card collecting days I went around and bought every Saku Koivu UpperDeck Finland rookie card from the WJHC before the Canadiens drafted him in 1993. I only had to look at his stats in a typically (back then) low-scoring Finnish league and read about his temperament to know I wanted the Habs to have him. I hoped and hoped for Saku that year, and in the end we picked my man.

When I look down the list this year, I am largely unimpressed with the list. There seem to be a lot of Chris Phillips' and few truly exciting prospects. I would be hugely disappointed if the Canadiens went weak and drafted someone like Tyler Cuma, who TSN says:

"is a strong two-way defenceman with leadership ability and a willingness to compete hard at both ends of the ice."

You can sign any number of players like that in an offseason. You shouldn't be drafting anyone whose best-case secnario is the next Steve Staios in the first round.


If we're looking for a steal

As a general rule, when looking for a steal, I look for a couple of things. First, I look at size. Big players are generally overrated by scouts and small players are underrated. The other thing is mention of skating. if they can't skate by now, it's too late guys. So, when I see a small player who can skate in the top tier of the draft, I am curious. It was the case with Saku Koivu, and it is the case with my new poster boy this year: Mattias Tedenby.

TSN ranked him 26th, but unlike the reviews for the defensive defencemen ahead of him, his review glowed:

"The diminutive Swedish winger is amongst the most competitive and skilled players available in this draft, but his lack of size is likely going to discount him in this draft. What he lacks in size, he makes up for with confidence, on and off the ice. He has an extra gear, which is essential for small guys looking to succeed in the NHL, and doesn't take a backward step in the mold of a Mats Naslund or Marty St. Louis. Could fall to the second round because of size issues, but if a team really likes him and is willing to look past the height, he could go much higher than ranked. "

The Central Scouting Bureau, who ranked him much higher than TSN (3 from Europe), have even better things to say:

"Mattias is excellent on every shift. He has outstanding speed, stick work and work ethic. He is small but fearless - he takes hits and always comes back. He creates scoring chances with his outstanding skating and is very difficult to stop when he is at full speed. He has excellent balance and quick, smooth hands, but needs to improve on his defensive awareness."

This is 2008's Saku Koivu! We'll lament him for being too small, but once he makes the team – icon... (I'm just off to buy the rookie cards now).


My next 4

Assuming as I am that the Canadiens will not be trading up in this draft, I am listing these 4 players based on the likelihood that they could be available at 25th overall:

2) Chet Pickard, G – Tri-City Americans
I have already put the goalie option forward elsewhere, to which I usually get mocking or disbelief as a response:

"Topham - why would we take a goalie in the first round?"

Just substitute the name Timmins for Topham and think back 3 years, and maybe you'll see where I'm coming from. Chet Pickard, from all reports, is a bit like our man Carey. Their stats from draft years are remarkably similar. Funnily though, the Americans actually did better with Pickard after losing Price. So the temptation to dismiss him, should probably be, well, dismissed. If he's available, I might have trouble buying the "best player" line if Timmins were to select someone else (other than Tedenby, of course).

3) Erik Karlsson, D – Frolunda, SEL
Offensive defencemen are great assets. Possibly the greatest around after goaltenders. but unlike goalies, teams can carry more than one offensive D, and as such they are very tradeable. Why draft for trading you ask? Because then you can get hold of that power forward with NHL experience you always want...

4) Kirill Petrov, LW – AK Bars Kazan
Here he is, the power forward we want. Apparently, the knock is that he doesn't want out of Russia. Well, if the Canadiens let this Russian issue stand in the way, then I can tell you someone else won't. That team, whoever they are, will pluck gems from the draft and we'll be looking back in 15 years after their 4th Cup in 10 years and asking how they did it. It'll take bravery, but what's the point in going to the draft if you're not willing to be brave?

5) Jordan Eberle, C – Regina Pats
Described as refreshingly offensive-minded, intelligent and goalscorer, he would be a good pick-up too. Not as big as some rival choices, but you can't teach the scoring knack to anyone.


If we have to go big
If it's gotta be a big guy, then I'd prefer Joe Colborne, but could stomach Greg Nemisz. Again, if they were passed off as the best player available, I won't be buying it.


If we're looking for someone from the backyard
Some of the Montreal media, including Mike Boone have had an eye on Danick Paquette from the QMJHL. Personally, I would steer clear of anyone who can still honestly list Todd Bertuzzi as their idol(!!!) no matter how many Xmas parties they throw. That and the fact that although he is sold as a big power forward, he's only 6' tall – he sounds like Latendresse without discipline or size.

More like it from the QMJHL, at least, are Nicolas Deschamps and Jacob Lagace from the Sagueneens (Carbo's toy). From this NHL.com article, they both sound like their stars are on the rise. If I had the say, I'd skip Deschamps if he's projected as a first rounder and pick up Lagace with a later pick. Obviously, neither has shown outstanding offensive talent just yet, and it would be an admission of defeat to pick a third line talent in the first round, no matter which province they hail from.

I, for one am a big believer in restocking the ranks from Quebec. If I were in charge, I'd be picking from Quebec in the late rounds. For one thing, we have more intimate knowledge of the local talent, and can also make the transition easier for the players who will struggle to learn new hockey skills at the same time as a new language and possibly culture. I'd like to think that some of the local boys would work that much harder for their beloved CH too.


Beyond round 1

You think about Joe Thornton, Ilya Kovalchuk, Rick Nash and company and ask what happened to those teams. Then you look at NJ and Detroit and marvel at their low first-rounders or lack thereof.

Tickets may be sold with first rounders, but dynasties are made in the later rounds. I have spoken about the desire for the Canadiens to jump all over the reluctance of other teams to draft Russians. And I mentioned their advantage in Quebec. I think the Canadiens have to leverage these two things in the later rounds to start bringing in consistent hauls of NHL quality players.

That said, I would hope that the Habs come up with some of the decent players from the Q this year. Specifically, I covet Yann Sauve or Maxime Sauve, one of Lagace or Deschamps (from above) and possibly Patrice Cormier if he's available 4th round or later.

As for Russians, it will depend on whether Petrov is the man early or not. There's taking advantage and then there's the foolishness of putting all the eggs in one basket – even Detroit wasn't taking all Swedish boys. If f we're safer than Petrov in round 1, then Evgeny Grachev in the second might make sense.

Viktor Tikhonov would also be a late intriguing pick, given the legacy of his grandfather. In fact, it might be just the sort of strategic pick (to sweeten the Habs chances in Russia overall) that could make sense.

Other names that jumped out included Jared Staal, who you know will never be small and David Carle, skating at Sidney's old school and playing like his brother Matt (San Jose's not ours).

That's about all I can muster having very little personal exposure to any of these guys. Happy Draft Day. See you in 5 years to see what the aftermath of all this was (and reaping the gains on all my Tedenby rookie cards)...