The playoffs are upon us. Before settling into your playoff chair adorned by items of superstition, let's take a moment to assess this series coolly and calmly.
We know the Habs handled the Senators to a 2-1-1 record this year. Oh wait, what's that you say? The Sens were 2-1-1 too? Oh dear, this could be close. let's look:
Goaltending
Craig Anderson – Carey Price
It is oft forgotten that goaltenders are not some outside
element in hockey, some superhero last resort there to save their inept buddies
from certain failure. In reality, the majority of what a goaltender does (i.e.,
covering angles to discourage shots, dealing with innocuous shots, playing the
puck) he does in concert with the defensive teammates around him. When one
thinks of a defensive system, one should think of the goaltender as the first
piece of such a system (as the Devils always have).
In that light, we have an interesting comparison on our
hands. Craig Anderson enters the post-season with the best ever season-end save
percentage since people began recording the stat. Carey Price enters with a
shabby 0.905. Anderson when playing was leading a team that relied on defence
almost entirely to win and was well on the way to capturing the trophy for
least goals allowed. Price at his best does the same, but got his wins this
season anyway because of greater doggedness even when this primary approach
went out the window.
When I watch Craig Anderson, what I see is the goalie that
Price is at his most effective, yet doing it all the time. He has let in his
bad goals (early goals in Canadiens games come to mind), yet his rebound
control and attention to following any and all plays make the Senators
defensive system less porous than the rest. Carey is perfectly capable of doing
the same. And when we laud him for good games, it is almost always the case
that he was slickest at directing pucks that needed to be deflected to corners
and smothered pucks that needed to be smothered. When both guys play
predictably, their fleet-footed colleagues clear up messes very quickly.
Anderson’s personal stats are the reflection of his success in this regard.
Carey’s success here is reflected in his team’s position.
Backups
Budaj has ridden a season of good goal support to a rather
incredible win-loss record, but his statistics and his tendency to allow early
goals are worrisome. I cannot say much about Robin Lehner other than what I see
on the page, which is that he seems to fill in fairly well for his colleagues,
whether they be injured or taking a night off.
In goaltending, I think it is only sensible to give the edge
to Ottawa. Anderson has been collecting his wins and stats by a commitment to
approach and the athleticism to follow through. Price has been flirting with
form that would provide the same sort of record-setting stats, but has not been
able to tame his lapses as fully. For the moment, Anderson rides in higher. The
same must be said of the backups, with Lehner offering a closer approximation
of his colleague than Budaj can for Price at his best.
Goaltending: Ottawa
Defence
Erik Karlsson -- Pernell Karl Subban
This is the beginning of a very important rivalry in this
part of the league. Two teams that live next door to one another somehow
managed to parley later picks into the Norris defenders that everyone wants on
their squads. Karlsson has one trophy in his cabinet and to watch him, could
have another soon enough. Subban is for my money the most versatile defender I’ve
seen in the Canadiens sweater since I started watching, and the most versatile
defender I have watched in any game in the past few years (including Karlsson).
Both guys garner their Norris credentials from what they do
on the powerplay (because the flawed Norris voting asks those who never really
watch defenders to try and rate them), but both have skills that go far beyond.
I have a more intimate appreciation for Subban, who I still
maintain is better in the defensive end than the attacking side. If he’s tasked
with shutting down a player, you will not see an impact from that player. And
PK’s quickness and agility make for more puck wins and clean ups than 95% of
defenders can provide.
Karlsson has slick skates too and seems to have improved his
defensive game by eliminating the aggressiveness that all youngsters wishing to
carry the team on their shoulders have. Because he can skate, the gaps that
open in the Ottawa end are quickly closed when he’s on (like Subban), and his
offensive skills make any puck lost in his corner a dangerous opportunity for
counter-attack. I don’t see that he has Subban’s muscular game really, but I
liken him to a younger Markov in the defensive end, efficiency being the name
of the game.
This is the battle for the headline. Though they may not see
much action one against the other. Both teams will be staking a large hope in
winning this battle.
Sergei Gonchar – Andrei Markov
The two Russian maestros will also figure heavily in the
outcome of the series. We all know that the return of Andrei Markov after
several incomplete seasons has coincided with an air of confidence not seen in
sometime on the banks of the St. Lawrence. Gonchar doesn’t get as much
coverage, but he deserves credit for covering the very large gap left by
Karlsson this season (Gonchar was next in TOI) and playing his role on the
second best defensive team in the NHL.
Both players in their prime were regulars in the discussion
on the best defenders in the league. I think it’s fair to say that both have
seen a step back. Yet both are flourishing in their new reduced roles. Neither
Gonchar nor Markov seem like the defensive pillars of their teams (especially
Markov at a misleading team-worst -9), but looks are deceiving. Markov has been
stabilizing and offers the Canadiens the chance to use players like Weber or
Tinordi without enormous levels of consternation that this would usually bring
forth. I have a feeling that a Gonchar not stretched beyond his strengths
offers the same to the Sens.
You’ll notice I’ve said nothing yet of the PP. Both of these
defenders are well established PP generals who can orchestrate a goal or two.
Chris Phillips – Alexei Emelin
These guys are matched for unfortunate reasons. Both are currently
injured, though Phillips is certainly not hurt to the same extent as Emelin. I
use these two as an important highlight. I think it is fair to say that neither
has received the full hype that those aforementioned have over the years, yet
both are very important to their respective causes. Emelin being lost to the
Canadiens has led to what seems an
endless search for defensive efficacy that the team was using to dominate the
Northeast division for weeks. Phillips quiet effectiveness is surely a factor
in Ottawa’s possession of the best goaltending stats in the league and near-season-long
grasp of the Jennings trophy.
Jared Cowen – Jarred Tinordi
Two big guys taken with two big draft picks. This matchup is
another one only in the bud. Cowen holds the current advantage, having a full
82-game season under his belt, together with NHL playoff exposure. Tinordi, the
fresher, won’t be called upon to do quite as much as Cowen, I suspect. In his
case, it will be the absence of mistakes rather than laying his mark on the
game that will constitute a good result.
Marc Methot – Josh Gorges
Two more defensive minded players who are relied upon to
deliver heavily on the penalty-killing mandate. In years past, Josh Gorges was
regarded as premiere in this regard on a team that excelled in shutting down
the opposition PP attack. But the luster from the Canadiens PK has escaped a
bit. Ottaw on the other hand possessed the number one (and very stingy at 88%)
PK in the NHL. Marc Methot was a key addition to the team in that regard, as he
led the team in blocked shots and allowed his goaltenders to post almost
unworldly 0.959 (Lehner) and 0.925 (Anderson) save percentages. For contrast, see
Carey Price at 75th in the league on PK save percentage with 0.804.
Others
The cast of others will probably actually play a greater
role than most of the aforementioned pairs above. Both teams preach a defensive
awareness to build an offensive outbreak and both teams rely on the full cast
of six defenders nightly.
Notably among the other for Montreal is Raphael Diaz, whose
remarkable emergence at the beginning of the season was muted by a long stint
out of the lineup. What is probably most difficult to remember is how Diaz’s
defensive presence was actually the biggest boon to the Canadiens. His return
will go a long way to cover the loss of Emelin.
Notable on the Senators is Wiercioch who posted a
respectable 19 points in 42 games and has enough speed and skill to make Markov
and Price look like fools at least once a season.
Just as it is difficult for Norris voters, it is difficult for
someone who watches a couple of handfuls of Senators games to do justice to a
comparison with the team he watches night in, night out.
My feeling is that this comparison is a near dead heat.
Although I think Subban is the better defender for my tastes, I will not deny
that Karlsson has earned his reputation. Although I’ve learned over a decade to
appreciate Andrei Markov’s subtleties, I can’t begrudge Gonchar a formidable
career and a strong year himself.
The edge in health goes to the Senators for the moment, as
Emelin’s loss looms over the Canadiens. Phillips, I suspect will be back.
There is inexperience on both sides. Cowen is a sophomore
like Diaz, and Wiercioch only has 30-odd games over Tinrodi.
The Senators defensive corps has demonstrated efficiency in
following a defensive mandate with a league lead in penalty killing and a
second place in goals against. The Canadiens cannot boast the same, but their
strength is greater in launching attack from the back, where the trifecta of
Markov-Subban-Diaz is unparalleled. The Senators will gain with Karlsson’s
return, but will be hard pressed to stay so impenetrable at the back while
trying to run with the Canadiens.
Defensive corps: Draw
Forwards
Chris Neil – Brandon Prust
Like it or not Habs fans, the whistles that so help the
Canadiens and other rule-abiding teams in the season go missing tonight and
beyond. It is in these moments that players like Chris Neil and Brandon Prust
step into the spotlight.
Chris Neil has been a thorn in the side of the Canadiens for
living memory. Every time he plays the Habs, he is noticed, nearly every time
he plays, he seems to figure in the most dangerous attacks. This season he was
the Sens leader in goals created against the Canadiens (creating 1.48 goals per
60, and 1.63 per 60 at ES). He must be viewed as the danger he is, lest the
Canadiens wish to dig early holes for themselves.
Much to my own surprise, it seems to me that Brandon Prust fills
nearly the identical role for the Canadiens. Sure he can fight if we want him
to, but his greatest value seems to come from muscling opportunities in close
spaces. Prust didn’t have the same success in his 3 games against the Senators
as Neil did against the Habs, but over a season his play showed glimpses of the
same.
Kyle Turris – Tomas Plekanec
Both these guys are the top minute centres on their teams,
both are used in all situations. Both can be said to be each team’s number one
centre.
For my tastes, Plekanec holds a massive edge on Turris in
both usefulness and threat. I rank Plekanec as the Canadiens best player on
many nights, and have been doing so for season after season now. He can score,
pass, complement a PP and lead a PK. That said, it is time to parlay his
versatility into a dominant playoff round or two. He has rarely left his mark
on a playoff game and certainly not on a series. With a close series at other
positions, this advantage at centre is Plekanec’s to press.
Turris for his part does a fine job considering the
circumstances. But I don’t think I’m alone in seeing him as a player in growth.
To his advantage are his established linemates and the uber-dogged Daniel
Alfredsson who can make most centres lives easier.
Daniel Alfredsson – Max Pacioretty
Both teams find their best offensive weapon on the wing.
Alfredsson needs no introduction, and his early playoff no shows are a thing of
the past. Pacioretty has emerged with a couple of team-leading seasons as a new
brand of power forward using his lanky speed and frequent shots to wreak havoc
in offensive zones.
I must confess, even as a Habs fan, I have greater
admiration for Alfredsson in this pair. If there is a tight game where goals
aren’t coming, I have seen his extra gears far more times than Pacioretty’s to
date. But hockey is a team game, of course, and while Alfredsson vs. Pacioretty
might end in tears, Alfie does not play with David Desharnais and Brendan
Gallagher, nor does he look down his lineup and see 20 goalscorers galore.
Jakob Silfverberg – Brendan Gallagher
I highlight this duo
to make a point. Both franchises are obtaining a new face. Montreal has morphed
from the team of Saku Koivu to that with Subban and Pacioretty at the forefront
and with recent support from Gallagher and Galchenyuk. Ottawa will bid farewell
to the ubiquitous Alfredsson one day, and his place will be taken by the like
of Jakob Silfverberg and Mika Zibanejad.
Silfverberg did not perhaps put up a Calder campaign to
remember, but he still managed 10 goals and 19 points in his 48-game debut. I’d
also say that as the season wore on, his role expanded and his contribution
grew as well. His contribution against the Habs alone, where he was involved in
4 goals, creating 1.12 per 60 and a key role in his teams PP success against
the Habs and Price.
As Habs fans, we all know the arguments for Gallagher. He
never gives up and has the talent to make that noteworthy. There’s a good
argument to be made that Gallagher is the player of the season for the Habs
(saying a lot for a rookie) and we certainly have to look no further in our
search for explanations as to how a lottery team bested the Bruins for 2nd
in the East a year on.
These are two exciting young players. For the moment,
Gallagher has the edge. He is used in better situations and has greater
support. He had very little adjustment to the NHL and I can’t see any reason
the playoffs would cause him to stumble.
Milan Michalek – Michael Ryder
The best pure goalscorers on either team are an interesting
pair. Both can streak with the best of them and it will likely be timing that
determines who comes out looking the hero.
My smart money is on Michael Ryder. Not only does he
confound his biggest critics with regular occasion, he also has shown a bit of
a flare for playoff hockey. When the
Bruins crushed the Habs in 2009, Ryder was their best player, when they won
the Cup, he struck me as a player who was always there when most required. The
threat to Ryder is not being put into situations where the big shot becomes big
important goal. If he gets the trust of his coach, he’ll be a menace to the
Sens.
Others
It didn’t seem to me there was much point going further and
further down an Ottawa lineup to match with Canadiens coming off very strong
seasons in the offensive zone. Ottawa does not have an Alex Galchenyuk or Lars
Eller to boast of, they do not have the secondary scoring of Brian Gionta or
Rene Bourque. While their discipline to a MacLean plan is a massive strength, I
cannot see their depth against the Habs (I didn’t even mention David Desharnais
yet).
Forwards: Montreal
Other factors
What remains to break what seems to be a tie is coaching and
team approach.
While this post seems to posit that Montreal should go with
their strength and push against Ottawa’s strength, this decision is ultimately
up to the coaches.
That said, I am wary of a team that does not play to its own
strengths, as they allow another team to dictate the strategy and tempo.
It is pretty clear to me and any on-looker that Ottawa will
stick to its approach here. Without Spezza, they don’t possess the arsenal to
run and gun. With the track record they have over 48, they’d be foolish to
stray.
Montreal is always difficult to call. The fish bowl that the
coaches survive in makes for hasty decisions sometimes. The real strength that
led the team to this point was built on solid defence but a fairly free and aggressive counter-attack.
The combination of direct goals and indirect goals (from the PPs won) has made
the team a top seed. I think they’ll stick with this to start. What the team
will do in a tight spot is almost anyone’s guess.
Coaching and
strategy: Draw
Series
The series cannot end in a draw, so what then?
Despite all my comparisons above, I have a feeling that
Montreal has the greater capacity here to win. I will not make an outright
prediction, but to say that with the strengths they have at the moment, and the
strengths in reserve with certain players finding their form again (ahem, Carey,
Rene) that Ottawa would be in very tough.
The big threat to Montreal in my opinion is discipline.
Discipline to system, discipline to avoid penalties and discipline to drive the
agenda. Ottawa has proven what discipline can do as they vaulted Craig Anderson
into record books and led the league in various categories, and they must know
the advantages of disturbing discipline on the opposition team. Their forwards,
while not ever going to the Hall of Fame, all relish stirring the pot. The
outlets for this have to be controlled in the Habs camp. Prust can fight, so
can others, but the results when Subban, Pacioretty and others get riled don’t
flatter.
Anyway, whatever happens, tonight is the eve of a playoff series
we in Montreal didn’t expect, and one that two cities have been waiting two
decades to see. The two crucibles of professional hockey meet once again to
determine superiority. Let’s hope that Montreal takes the mantle just as it did
when it took the Governor General’s silver for its own.
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