Showing posts with label Kessel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kessel. Show all posts

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Game #7

More Breakdowns Than On The Side Of The 401

Details



Date: 22/10/2011
Opponent: Maple Leafs
Location: Montreal

Loss: 4-5 (OT)

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Reimer, Gustavsson (W)

Habs goalscorers: Moen (2), Kostitsyn, Cammalleri
Opposition goalscorers: Steckel, Kessel, Phaneuf, Grabovski (2)



Play of the game


I have to hand it to Travis Moen, because of all of the Habs he may be the one that is playing the most above his usual. He covered up another poor play by the team (an opening minutes penalty) with a spectacular effort to get open and score the first goal. On the PK, he an Eller were off. Lars was gone, but could Travis make it a 2-on-1? Yes, he did incredible work to get in front of his man and then did even better once he got the puck. He fought off the D very well and beat Reimer with a perfectly placed backhand shot.



Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Travis Moen - Game Puck
I didn't think that I would be saying this (and had actually hoped that I wouldn't have to), but Moen was our best player tonight. No offence to Travis, but there are a few players that should be ashamed of themselves because it isn't like Moen is playing like Crosby and that is why he is standing out, no, he is just playing good, solid hockey. Tonight it was 2 goals and a +3 - maybe not my first choice for top-6 winger minutes, but he is certainly earning that time now.

Lars Eller
He played a good game tonight and demonstrated that he is also capable of being a top-2 centre on this team. It may be unclear where he really stands when all are healthy, but if he keeps playing with the energy and passion that he did tonight then I think he'll keep getting his minutes. He had a 2-point night tonight, was very dangerous in the offensive zone and, like his linemate, was +3.

Andrei Kostitsyn
Kostitsyn should feel pretty good about the start that he has had. JM keeps moving people around to try and get others going (and appears to be demoting Kostitsyn each time he does that), but Andrei answers by continuing to be a main part of our best line, night in, night out. He picked up a very nice goal tonight and added an assist on Moen's second (the Gorges shot).

Defencemen

Yannick Weber
Yannick was on for no goals against, was +1 and played 22+ minutes. I didn't notice him much in our end which tonight, was a good thing. He is being used in all situations and is certainly making a case for himself to remain as a defenceman. He has probably been a top-3 D-man for us this year so it will be interesting to see what happens when Spacek, and later Markov, get back.

PK Subban
PK has to be better, he needs to. If he doesn't give us more than he has then this Habs team is a lot worse off than we all thought they would be. Right now he is playing one game as a top-2, one game as a solid depth player and another as a rookie. We, whether it was right to do so or not, have put a lot on this kid and I think our season will depend a lot on his progression. Tonight he was a top-2 for us, but that is mainly due to the mistakes of others and his decent puck control on the PP. There are still 75 games left, lets hope he gets it going, and I mean really going, before it is too late.

Goaltender

Peter Budaj
The one player that we need to be better than PK this year is Price. We were good last year, but it is no stretch to say that if we had this goaltending we would not have made the playoffs at all. He has to find ways to win despite the players in front of him because, for the most part it is the same group that he has won behind before. The team is certainly playing worse, no question, but we can't keep losing games in which we score 4+ goals. Expectations are high on this kid because at this point, he is really all we have going for us.


Comments


Just like the team I play on; too many penalties. It is an embarrassment that we got 2 too-many men on the ice penalties today...what is that? I can't stand that we continue to be one of the most penalized teams in the league despite the fact that we have no real dirty or rough players. I don't know how many times I have said this, but penalties must be JM's main concern. I reckon that if this keeps up he may be in his last 2 weeks in the NHL, so he had better find a way to win games and I strongly believe that taking less penalties is the best way to start. So, in my opinion, he must do whatever it takes to get his players to be scared, scared as hell of taking any sort of penalty. Perhaps always siding with your player and always disaggreeing with the ref after a call isn't the way to get your players to change their ways? Just a thought.

Now, penalties aside, we continue to play poorly in our own end and we play an awful lof of hockey in that 1/3 of the rink. We can't get it out with any sort of consistency and our inability to maintain prolonged attacks means that we simply get overwhelmed in our end. I hate this cliche, but I honestly think that we just have to keep things simple, we have to play the most basic and safest type of defensive hockey. It seems that we are able to score despite all of our problems throughout the line-up, so we must focus on defence, full team defence. That means a lot of work for Price and the D-men, but also a big focus on our defensive zone play from our forwards. Until we win I would actually exclusively work on this aspect of the game during practice.

We're probably a few losses away from major moves, so lets hope (unless we want major moves?), we turn it around fast. If we keep this play up for another month the season could be ruined, if we turn it around in the next few days it will simply look like a blip on our overall record.

Thursday, October 07, 2010

Habs and Leafs in Hogtown

A Preview

The season is upon us. There's a game at noon! So we need to get ready.

For you here is the first game preview of the season.

I figured, you knew the lineups, you knew the lines that would last for the first 5 minutes and you knew all the basic news, so I thought I'd try to look at things differently and add: Key match-ups, Momentum, Players the other side covets, Ready-made excuses, and the ultimate Impact of this result.

Key match-ups

Kessel and Auld Price
Kessel shoots from just about anywhere, and the Habs defence let up shots from just about anywhere as a strategy. It will be down to Kessel's accuracy vs. Auld's Price's positioning and size.


Komisarek and Moen
Komisarek is still looking to prove to Montreal TV audiences that he intimidates people. Last season, he opened with 15 PIM, including a double minor for high-sticking and a fight with Travis Moen. His final penalty led to the tying goal and ultimately the first Leafs loss of the season. Moen is the only player on the Habs who "can" fight. The team once again chose to recognize that 84% of NHL teams don't even have a fighter, so Moen can get pummeled in Toronto if it means having forwards on the roster. Should be fun for him.


Gionta and Phaneuf
The new captains will be squaring off for the HNIC spotlight on opening night for the season. Gionta is already under pressure to learn how to speak French. Phaneuf is already under pressure to learn to skate backwards.


Todd Warriner and Patrice Brisebois
Habs and Leafs fans both have reason for optimism as victory on the ice actually seems within reach this season. Alums Todd Warriner and Patrice Brisebois both survive to skate against Kelly Chase another day on Battle of the Blades. Needless to say, there's work to be done for both. For Warriner, learning to speak French could help him with Isabelle Brassuer. For Brisebois, learning to skate backwards is still on the do list.


Momentum

In reality: none. Training camp is a farce and I can hardly believe it is televised.

In fantasy world, the Leafs are counting on the "strong finish" from last season to spur them to at least three October victories. Similarly, the Habs believe that playoffs rounds 1 and 2 (all the same players, almost, remember) is their impetus going forward.


Leafs the Habs covet

Phil Kessel
Phil really stands out on the Leafs for possessing exceptional natural talent. On a roster laden with guys who want to push the net over the puck, Phil shines with the quickest of releases teamed with sharp accuracy. He'd be an expensive addition to any team (see no draft picks for a few years), but guaranteed scoring is worth it.

Tomas Kaberle
Even as he greys a little on top, he is still one of the smoothest and canniest passers in the league. Perhaps he doesn't fir the Leafs plans for their own reasons, and might not fit other teams because of defensive concerns, but with skills like his, you make allowances.


Habs the Leafs covet

Mike Cammalleri
More than anyone on the roster, Cammalleri is the one they longed for. The Habs signature of the Toronto sniper not only deprived the Leafs of a season with forwards, but also ultimately led to the fiasco that was the Kessel trade (even though we admire Kessel, a free agent would have allowed the MLs to keep that top pick, and the next top pick).

PK Subban
The Leafs' parent club Boston Bruins are looking to accept draft picks and a good prospect in another annual trade, but they are asking for a decent defensive prospect. Sadly the Leafs might have to look elsewhere to dump their selections in the 2013, 2014 and 2015 drafts. Subban might have been the ticket.


Ready-made excuses

In Toronto and Montreal, the only sport more popular than hockey is scapegoat hunting. Over the years, this has led to players, trainers, coaches and managers adapting the uncanny ability to wriggle free like earthworms trapped in the maw. I figure to do this, they need some excuses ready. Luckily, they've had a whole summer to think of these.

If Montreal lose:
- Markov is injured
- The goaltending coach is working hard on that every day
- This new group of guys really needs time to gel
- Our defensive strategy relies on a lot of luck, sorry
- Halak lost too

When Toronto lose:
- We had a strong finish to the game and that will provide our momentum going forward
- We thought the fans were booing us, so we stopped shooting high glove side
- Kaberle is distracting us
- You can't judge this team during the portion of the season where the refs ref, it wasn't built for that (see: strong finish)


Impact of this result

In Toronto, fans really are a bit more even-keeled than in Montreal. They will give the team plenty of leeway this season to grow and take advantage of the deft maneuvering that created the defense that boasts five potential 30-point men, to go with the two they have at forward. A win will be greeted with knowing nods and uneasy optimism. A loss with knowing nods and familiar pessimism. Either way, Kaberle really must go.

In Montreal, I expect everything will be viewed through the in-net camera. The Halak trade made an already focused group into one completely obsessed by goaltending. If Auld should win, the inevitable cascade of praise will lead to questioning of Carey Price. If Auld should lose, the hand wringing will be followed by the questioning of Carey Price.


Sometimes, you have to wonder if they even need to play the games. Both teams could really use the points, however. And, in all seriousness, these 2 points look to be deciders for these teams that fancy themselves contenders.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Pawning Kessel:

Habs Rivals Equalize Talent Levels

A few weeks ago I wrote with glee about the way the Bruins were playing with fire as they looked set to lose Phil Kessel. Well, it's done now, they've gone and lost him – albeit with some hefty compensation.


On the other side of the trade sit the Toronto Maple Leafs, whose GM decided that 4 months was enough time to rebuild a non-existent farm system and has given up on drafting in the first round for a few years.

Who won the trade?

Well, technically, Toronto did. They got a 22-year-old 36 goalscorer for 3 chances at landing an 18-year-old future 36 goalscorer. When you consider Toronto's actual drafting record, where promising (to be adequate) defenceman Luke Schenn stands out as a beacon of excellence, then Burke looks even more like a genius.

Ridiculing the Bruin aside, Kessel is a big fish to land for anyone. And should he continue to produce anywhere near the level he has so far for the next decade of his career, then this is a massive move for the Leafs. Even if he simply maintains his 2008-09 production for the next 5 years, this trade is a win for Burke.

I say Burke because Kessel is an asset to the new GM, while those 3 draft picks likely never would have been. If an average GM has a lifespan of 5-6 years, then Brian Burke is right to concern himself with what will be happening in that term.

Burke won, Kessel won, but did Toronto?


This question is harder to answer. The consensus opinion seems to be that the answer to this question is still up in the air and probably will be right until the end of next season when we can see how Kessel plays and how those draft picks fall in the order.

An optimist would say that Toronto landed a marquis player and someone to anchor their youthful offense for years. Someone with a more pessimistic (even realistic) slant on things may say they pulled out of the rebuilding mode very prematurely. Because nothing very positive happened until the 2008 draft, the Leafs essentially landed Schenn and Kadri along with a few college alums (who are getting far too much shine put on them from Burke, after all they’re all glorified Brock Trotters).

Yes, technically the Leafs did add young talent, but not to be missed is that teams like Pittsburgh and Washington already have better young talent, and the Islanders and Thrashers have added better talent than the Leafs. By pulling up light on the rebuild, has Burke taken a perennial 8th place battler and made another perennial 8th place battler? He certainly has risked that on Kessel’s progress.


Boston lost, but not this week

Though Toronto must be winners here, to say Boston lost this trade is disingenuous. They lost a long time ago when they priced Kessel out of their salary structure, yes. But to them Kessel had flown, so any return was welcome. To turn any return into two potentially very high first rounders and a second.

If I were a Bruins fan, (after patting myself on the back 300 times) I would be happy with my GM in so far as the trade goes. After all, Kessel was lost. He could have been lost to the Hurricanes or the Penguins, but instead Chiarelli squeezed a extra first pick out of it – and made sure the picks came from a pretty average-to-bad team (not a conference contender, even with Kessel).

The fact remains for Bruins fans, however, that their team is worse by a fair distance today than it was 4 months ago. Gone is the only innately talented goalscorer on the squad. Left is the hope that Ryder will repeat his very best, Wheeler will somehow develop and Lucic will be more than a teenager obsessed with creating a reputation for himself. It’ll be tough. The ripples of no Kessel will be felt, and the likelihood of a 30-odd game point streak happening again is slim.


Rivals are winners too


Rivals of these two teams are on balance also all winners. As mentioned, the Bruins are worse, and will have trouble repeating as they try to milk perfection from Thomas and Krejci again. Toronto are better, but being bad to begin with means they’re still well in the mix.

The biggest winners here are probably the Caps and the Penguins, who both now stand head and shoulders above their Eastern rivals in scoring and explosive potential. Teams like the Hurricanes and Devils also win as they now boast equal, if not greater talent to the Black and Gold.

Finally, teams in the Northeast will benefit from a Boston that’s more beatable and a lot easier to defend against for everyone. It should offset an extra Toronto win as a result of Kessel’s 60 games. The Habs among them, who never cared what Toronto looked like anyway (and would always allow 6 goals an outing to them), will like that Boston won’t have a player that can pick on Carey Price’s weak glove at will – perhaps a season sweep isn’t on the cards again this year.


The Mike Cammalleri effect

After famously failing to land his Toronto phenom on draft day, Brian Burke must surely have been looking to do something with his forward group on July 1 (else he's a much worse GM than even I thought). Rumours at the time led one to believe that the focus from Toronto's end would be turned towards Ontario native Mike Cammalleri.

Well we all know who won that race. But perhaps what we didn't appreciate at the time was the effect that it would have on our divisional rivals.

But Cammalleri is older you say?

Well yes he is. However, both he and Kessel are signed to 5-year contracts, not lifetime ones. Both have already shown their willingness (or drive) to change teams and neither looks like a lifelong anything. So when it comes down to it, the fact that Cammalleri might be 32 when his contract retires and Kessel 27 is pretty meaningless. Both will be playing some of their prime years with the teams as 30-goalscorers with aspirations of more.

Consider for a second that July 1 Brian Burke delivers 39-goal man Cammalleri to his team's faithful. He would have upgraded his forward corps (just as with Kessel), but for free. Burke would have retained his draft picks.

Instead, Gainey signs Cammalleri and creates the need in Toronto for Kessel (credit to those who signed Havlat, Hossa and Gaborik as well). His quick action for once on July 1, has led us to this trade where two division rivals both make significant sacrifice and take on risk. What Toronto is rejoicing over now could have been had for free two months ago. By creating the need for Kessel in Toronto, other GMs (including Gainey) also ensured that Phil’s lasting desire to depart would be met by a willing bidder – thereby ensuring Boston would be a weaker team this season.

Perhaps it wasn’t all as calculated as that. Whether it was or wasn’t, that is what has now happened. That is what we can now quietly smirk about.

Friday, August 07, 2009

The Puzzling Case Of Alex Tanguay, Free Agent

Alex Tanguay fired his negligent agent last week (but reported yesterday). It's about time, don't you think?

Agents aside, there has to be some reason teams have not been orderly forming a queue to Alex Tanguay's door. I'm not saying the agent doesn't hold some responsibility here. But let's be honest, if an NHL team wanted Tanguay, really wanted him, they'd have been able to get in touch, circumvent a trouble-maker agent.

So just what are the alternative explanations? I'm can't be sure, but let me speculate:

Tanguay himself is holding up the process


1) Tanguay is being picky

Not an uncommon trait among NHLers. You'll all remember Mats Sundin. Before him there were others. If a player isn't blown away on day 1 with a big offer, what is the rush to sign really? Alex may be waiting for the right situation to fall into place, turning other offers away as he goes. We do know this much:
"Tanguay est fort intéressé à jouer pour le Lightning. On avance qu'il serait prêt à accepter un contrat d'un an juste pour avoir la chance de jouer aux côtés des Vincent Lecavalier, Martin Saint-Louis et Steven Stamkos."

Tanguay's very interested in playing for the Lightning. It's suggested that he'd be prepared to take a one year contract for the chance to play with Lecavalier, St. Louis and Stamkos.

2) Tanguay's being unrealistic
The past few seasons, Tanguay has been a near $6 million man. It may be that he fancies himself the same player as when he signed that contract. While he's probably right about his own skills, what he has to understand is that money has been pouring out into other players' pockets over the time he's been waiting.

You know what, he does realise this. He's no fool. I doubt this is the problem.


A negligent agent botched the process

3) Tanguay's agent missed or didn't return calls
Given Sauve's history and experience, you'd have to think that he didn't. Whether he did or not is something that we'll never know. We do know this: he's been fired. Someone named Tanguay thinks Sauve has something to do with this puzzling situation.

4) Tanguay's agent gave bad advice

Perhaps it was agent not player who misjudged the temperature of the water here with salary and term demands. With the speed at which the Canadiens and other teams filled their needs this July, it wouldn't take much bad judgment to get you to July 4th in a very bad position.


NHL GMs don't prioritise players like Tanguay


5) NHL GMs are waiting for Heatley, Kessel and Zherdev

Tanguay doesn't exist in a vacuum. Heatley and Kessel both represent hotter commodities than Tanguay. It may be that GMs don't want to tie their hands with Tanguay when the could be in the Heatley/Kessel game. The same is true, though to a lesser extent, for players like Zherdev.


6) NHL GMs see him as a complementary player

Early in his career, it would have been fair to suspect that Tanguay was merely a complement to those around him, albeit a very good complement. Really though, I say this because this is what I saw this season from Tanguay. From my limited viewings, I saw him as a very good potentiator for Koivu and/or Kovalev; but he looked like he needed skill to produce.

Perhaps NHL GMs spotted this as well. It could well be that this is holding up the process. For one thing, Tanguay would need a player to be a complement to. No use Nashville or Florida signing him – because why would you spend millions to make a Legwand or a Weiss line slightly more effective. Tanguay is at his best when he potentiates the Sakics, Iginlas and Lecavaliers of the league, where a 25% boost translates into many points and even extra wins.

7) NHL GMs think he's hard work
Again, pure speculation. But one fact that led me to this is the time he had in Calgary. Tanguay did not thrive when he was asked to adopt that system and it may have hurt his value.

When it comes to the Canadiens, I couldn't help but notice that he was a lot chattier when Carbonneau was dispatched. I'm guessing he didn't appreciate Carbonneau's style either.

Two coaches in two years. To an outsider that sometimes looks like the constant in the equation might be the problem, rather than the variable.

8) NHL GMs don't think he's value for money
This goes a little bit with all of the above and will change depending on the salary and term demand. I don't think there's much argument to be made about him not being worth his salary from last season anymore. In a world where you can sign Hossa for a lesser cap hit and lock up Zetterberg for the same amount, Tanguay just doesn't belong there.

But how far has he slid on demands? Let's say to $4 million. Is it possible NHL GMs would balk at that too? I'd suggest that many would.



When it comes to it with Tanguay, I am truly puzzled. His continued availability is baffling to me because despite the fact I call him complementary and even needy, he is still just a very very skillful player.

Back in December, when we played the Flames, I wrote a little treatise on Tanguay. I think it holds today. Yes, he floats, he's dependent on others and is laid back; but hockey is a team game. There is room for an Alex Tanguay on almost any team (I still don't see Nashville, Toronto or Calgary, but the other 27).

His numbers, after all, don't lie. He has 193 career goals to go with 387 career assists in 659 games. Since the lockout, he's assisted on 173 goals over 300 games – a great clip – and shown he can adapt to play with players other than Forsberg and Sakic. His skills are much rarer than a 6'4" frame with no defensive awareness, and are what GMs should be using their money to buy. I can see why 2 consecutive GMs have opted for Cammalleri to replace him, but Brian Gionta and Todd Bertuzzi – these I can't justify...

When it comes to reality and why he's still in limbo, I think it's probably a little from column A, B and C. Tanguay probably needs to be less picky and demanding, his new agent must be better than his old for his case and NHL GMs must meet him in the middle.

If I were entering a pool as to the next player to be signed in this league, my money would be squarely on Tanguay.

Monday, August 03, 2009

Bruins GM Playing With Fire

And We Habs Fans Like It

Montreal Canadiens fans know a thing or two about what can happen when you win the East one year and expect the world the next. We also know how losing one key player can change the face of a PP and a team.

So when I look at how the Boston Bruins (let's be honest – our chief rivals) are doing this summer, it's heartening to see them making some moves that bring aboard risk rather than remove it.

In the NHL news morass that is August, Phil Kessel's salary negotiation is one of the few stories that I will be keeping a keen eye on. I say that because I think Phil Kessel is a key player for the Bruins, and as such, a key player to watch for the Canadiens as they play the Bruins and chase or try to hold off the Bruins in the standings.


Phil Kessel's value

Projected to be a top draft pick because of his offensive skills, Phil cracked the NHL at age 19 and has been steadily improving ever since. Last year as a 21-year old Kessel scored 36 goals and in the process catapulted his ego into the upper echelons of the NHL.

I did not watch every Bruins game of last season, nor do I know much about Phil Kessel as a teammate; but from an outsider's point of view he seems like a pretty valuable player. Bad attitude or not, Phil Kessel is a baby in the NHL – a baby with 66 career goals before most his age are even out of college.

His value can also shown in the wins column. The Bruins success from last season (the extraordinary part of it, not the consistent part) came during a 27-game run through November and December where they amassed 24 wins and 49 points. Phil Keseel wasn't the only player to be firing during that stretch, but he was involved. Over the 27 games, he scored 17 goals and 15 assists. He also strung together a very respectable 18-game point streak during that time.

I've seen Bruins fans give him a hard time for his early production followed by months at a lesser clip. Some have even said he's not the playoff player they want. But I can tell you form watching 2 straight years of Kessel and Bruins playoff hockey that he was the Bruin I feared most. In 2007-08, the Bruins were a scoring comedy when he was benched and only came to life in the series when Julien baked down and put Phil back in. IN the 2008-09 sweep, he was always there – 4 goals and 2 assists not too shabby an output in my books.


The Bruins mistakes

If the Bruins did make mistakes (and I think they have done) they were in piling up so much salary that Phil Kessel's potential salary will push them over the top of this year's cap. To even risk losing a player like Kessel is playing with fire, to make it almost the most realistic outcome is not very good planning at all.

They are in this position thanks to some questionable moves over the past few seasons.

Their most recent move in question would be the addition of Derek Morris ($3.3 million) at the expense of Aaron Ward ($2.5 million). Morris is nothing bu a question mark himself after a couple of lacklustre seasons in Phoenix. The New York Rangers who desperately need an offensive boost decided Morris – a player they paid dearly for – wasn't worth keeping even at less money.

Prior to that signing, the Bruins were quiet, adding only the innocuous (salary cap-wise) Steve Begin. But in the spring, they broke the bank for David Krejci on what can only be termed an unnecessarily high contract. Yes, Krejci had a great season and yes he appears to be a good player. However, a player two years into an NHL career and one-year removed from a 6-goal effort does not need to be the recipient of a $4 million contract – especially in a tight cap situation.

Their woes are greater still when you consider they now have 3 buyouts on the cards for several million and have somehow managed to bring aboard a goalie with all of 244 minutes of NHL experience at the potential price tag of $3.2 millions a season.

None of these mistakes will mean anything next to the potential loss of Phil Kessel. Where overpaid backups and slumping 3rd years are a pain, they can be managed. Losing a 36-goalscorer when the alternatives are called Sturm, Ryder and Kobasew is downright dangerous.


Heartening to Habs fans

All of this, though it must be painful for a fan of said team, is great stuff for the Canadiens and their fans. While we have to question whether our own team will be better or worse, it's nice to know that relative improvement is still looking good.

I can tell you that last year's Bruins team was an absolute nightmare opponent. They knew how to blanket our team and had the power to counter attack with graceful ease. Any change was going to be good. Losing their most talented goalscorer and their most unpredictable forward (Kessel) would make games against the Bruins easier for Martin's Habs – and might just be the best news to come from Boston for a Habs fan since early 2008.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Habs : Bruins

The Balance Of Power

Having been pressed to the full at work lately, I haven't had a s much time for a preview as I would have liked. I am hoping that some of my prep can be slowly leaked through as the series goes over the next week or longer.


But as I'm sure you're all as excited as we are for the first meaningful game of the 2008-09 campaign (barring that one where we had to get the last point), so I thought I'd do an abridged little preview to ready the tastebuds.

I would start this post with a proviso before going any further. If I wanted to look through the teams and their statistics and come up with a preview that could have put the Bruins ahead in every category, I could have nearly done it. However, as this is a Canadiens blog and I am charged with doing something a little less mainstream than everyone who got their previews in hours ago anyway, I have managed to find some categories where I feel nos Habitants have an edge over the cavemen.

Without further ado, here are the battles:

1) Top line – Tanguay/Koivu/Kovalev vs. Lucic/Savard/Kessel

This is a tough call. The first problem is that the Habs top line have looked good, but only for a handful of games. The Bruins top line, most notably Kessel and Savard have looked good the entire season (almost).

I think even the most optimistic Habs fan has to give this one to the Bruins in terms of offense.

I will say this, though. The Canadiens top line is made up of three players who can make a top line on their own, just by virtue of being written in. The Bruins top line is not a top line without Savard. As such, it will be easier to smother the Boston line (for ease in targeting the coverage) – a lesson that could be straight from Boston's play book of 2008 on Kovalev.


2) The secondary scoring

There is no doubt the Bruins had more success here this season. But you know what, how many career-best seasons did they have there? The Canadiens by contrast had decent secondary scoring despite pitiful stretches from all their second guns.

The question is whether the momentum in the playoffs will shift or not. Last season, Tomas Plekanec was quite possibly the best forward on our team in the second half of the season. But a change in momentum nullified his input in the playoffs. This season, the Bruins are toting a few Plekanecs in their line-up.

It's for that reason that I am giving the edge to the Canadiens here. It must be the Felipe Alou fan in me, but Kostitsyn has to break out, so does Plekanec. Higgins and Latendresse could also. They will have to to prove me right. Else, I could right be called a blind fool. My gut simply tells me Kostitsyn > Recchi, Pleks > Krejci, Gui > Wheeler and so on.


3) The checking forwards – Higgins vs. Axelsson

Somewhat fortuitously, Chris Higgins seems to have fallen into the role he was born to play. No longer forced into situations where he must produce, he can concentrate on being that intelligent and anticipatory player we all know and love. If I'm Marc Savard, I wouldn't relish a shift with this guy watching me at all. I don't think Koivu gives a toss if Axelsson is on the ice or not. Canadiens win this battle is Chris is deployed in the right way.


4) Top defenceman – Hamrlik vs. Chara


I could make some cockamamie tale about Hamrlik up here, but he does not measure to Chara in stature, skill or even experience. Boston wins this battle in a landslide.

However, if (big if) Markov can come back and be Markov; I feel that Andrei is the best defender in the East and the third behind Lidstrom and Niedermayer in this league. In that case, the Habs would have my edge.


5) The rest of the D

Some Canadiens fans have been kidding themselves when they say the Habs win this battle. Aaron Ward, for example, has oodles of Cup experience and was a main reason our number one line went AWOL last spring. He is what Komisarek should be and isn't. Then you have the steady, simple and obedient play of the others that helped bring (nay, brought) the Jennings trophy home to Boston this season.

Are the slow? Perhaps a bit. Are they deficient in the offensive skills department? Mostly, but Jennings doesn't care about that (especially when the forwards go second in the league on goals). Boston's defenders are a better group than the Habs, Hamrlik and Bouillon or not.


6) Backstops – Price vs. Thomas


Tim Thomas had one of those seasons. He should win the Vezina trophy. But you know what? Huet had one of those seasons and he was let go for nothing. I would never want to write Thomas's season off, but had Carey Price even had a semblance of a good second half, he'd have the edge here. As it is, Boston wins.


7) Discipline

Here's one of those categories. Can it carry as much weight as the others? Probably not, but it is a factor. It is a category that the Canadiens will win, I'll tell you why: they need to.

As such, discipline for the Canadiens will be written into the game plan. A lot was made of the Canadiens indiscipline in the regular season at times, but so many times that indiscipline was nothing of the sort. It was puck over the glass or non-call, or stick brush the waist. If you exclude Mike Komisarek from consideration, I actually felt the Habs on the whole were quite a disciplined bunch for most of the season.

I'll tell you why else: Boston's identity requires them to come out and bang. Sure, during the regular season the Bruins fans will tolerate a clean game vs. the Wild. But come playoffs, vs. the abhorrent Canadiens, no mercy will be tolerated. A goal must be answered with a fight. A shot with a cross-check. It's written in their constitution. We saw it a mere week ago.


8) Coaching – Gainey vs. Julien

Only one of these two men will be nominated for the Jack Adams trophy this season. However, only one made brilliant and brave decisions to turn his team around.

Claude Julien sure looked good again at the helm of a team that made it happen. Bob Gainey looked barely adequate at times. Even so, only one of these coaches has won any significant series in the playoffs (either as player or coach).

On top of that, Julien remains unique as a coach for twice being fired from teams when sporting a winning record – first the 19-16-6 Canadiens of 2006, then the 47-24-0 Devils of 2007. That Devils firing undertaken by a GM without peer and instigated based on the testimony of the best goaltender and many of the best students of hockey in the game, tells me all I'll ever need to know about Claude. Gainey is a better coach. Canadiens edge the Bruins here.


9) Extra gear


I'll list players I know have an extra gear on both sides:

Koivu, Kovalev and Mark Recchi.

Not that they won't be happy with status quo, as the East winners, but the Bruins will mostly have to make do with that. They do not have a Koivu, not many teams do. They have Recchi, but even he can't reach Kovalev control of a game. Of course, this is dependent on the players actually stepping up the rate. But since we can count on Koivu, the Canadiens already have the edge.

The question that lingers here is do any other players have that gear? Well, one could make an argument for Aaron Ward, and maybe if you're generous Chara or Schneider, but beyond that, it's youngsters with little history to go on. Both teams have intriguing possibilities like Kessel, Wideman, Kostitsyn and Lapierre.


10) Preparation

The Bruins prepared for these playoffs by practicing winning and not much else. They came back a number of times from goal deficits, but they never had to deal with a losing streak, a split in the dressing room, or things generally not going their way.

The Canadiens, if you can look at it in a positive light, earned their 3 credits this semester. They've had lessons on every topic and in the end they pulled it out. Bad losses, they've had a few to recover from. Non-existent goaltending, they're well versed. In a nutshell, nothing could happen to the Canadiens in game one or two that hasn't happened to them already. Nothing could rattle them more than they've been rattled. The Bruins? I'm not so sure.

Even so, the Bruins way of preparing is tried and tested. If they win, they know how to win again. If they go down a goal, they know they more often than not come back. If things go their way, as the experts predict they will, they'll know full well what to do with the situation.


The tally

Even at a stretch, it's hard to find things other than faith to put the Canadiens ahead. On the tally, I have a draw, but in fairness the Bruins have captured the points cards here with all defenders, goaltenders and top line scoring going to them.

We knew there would be ifs for our Habs, and they are big ones. But if Markov ever came back, we'd pull closer. If Koivu and Kovalev both play like the men-possessed they can be, then even a giant Slovak can't stop them. If Kostitsyn scores a few early in the series, the Bruins will have a lot of reorganisation to do. If Higgins is deployed as a shadow and plays like he has been, he could be a major factor. Dare I say, if Price actually plays like he has done in the past (the good times), then playing a goon line won't look so smart.

And, if dogmatic Julien is forced out of his comfort zone, well then we're on our way.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Why Are The Boston Bruins Where We Want To Be?

As things currently stand, the Boston Bruins have clinched a playoff position and the division title, while our Canadiens battle for 8th. With the progress we made last season, one could be forgiven for thinking that the league mixed up the teams. Alas, the Bruins have overtaken us (for now) in their progression and throw another obstacle in the way of Bob Gainey's 5- (going on 8-) year plan.

Why is this? How did it happen?

The answer is fairly straightforward – through a combination of hard work, good decisions and lucky gambles, rookie Peter Chiarelli has outperformed our supposed ace GM. I've subdivided his victories over Gainey below:

Eyes on the play – Blake Wheeler

The Bruins made one of the best signings behind the Hossa deal on July 1st last season. Signing one of the youngest UFAs on the menu did not look like much at the time, but it has provided the Bruins with the +/- leader for the NHL. The Bruins met Wheeler's demands for a big contract by loading him up with bonuses. Of course, they'll probably have to pay those now, but I doubt Chiarelli will be complaining.

The Bruins were on the ball with this move, as it was a low-risk, high-reward maneuver. It has made a massive difference to their team this year, since Wheeler was great to start and has good chemistry with Krejci and Ryder.

When was the last time the Canadiens grabbed such a young player like this for free? I think the answer goes back a long way if you leave out Brock Trotter. The Red Wings picked up Ville Leino for free last season too. When you look at our young forwards coming through, the question about Wheelers and Leinos is certainly a pertinent one.


Don't mind the depths – Phil Kessel

The Bruins were absolutely terrible in 2005-06 following the Joe Thornton trade, losing an astonishing 53 games in all. Their reward, of course, for their futility was a place in the draft lottery. While it didn't pay off with a lucky first overall draw, they still had a top 5 pick in what looks in retrospect like a good crop.

The Bruins don't plumb the depths very often, but every so often they do. Unlike their middling Northeast rivals Montreal and Toronto, Boston has been able to survive as a franchise and get top 5 picks. The last time Montreal picked so highly with a pick of their own was, well, never (Price was a lottery win).

If you're missing the playoffs anyway, a high draft pick is another free way to improve greatly. Push for tenth and you get the 12th pick, a la Montreal/Toronto. It is possible to trade for those top picks, but the days where GMs are total buffoons trading with Sam Pollock are long gone – the price of a first from a bottom team is steep.
To say that gunning for the top draft picks is a proven strategy for rebuilding in the NHL would be an understatement – just ask Pittsburgh, Washington and Colorado. Thus it is no surprise that it has paid off for a team like the Bruins once again.


Trade return – Brad Boyes and Paul Mara

When the Bruins scammed Brad Boyes off the Sharks for Jeff Jillson in 2004, the Bruins probably thought they were putting a building block in place for the future. The first season after the lockout, their move looked genius as Boyes was clicking with Patrice Bergeron and becoming one of the best young scorers in the game.

The next year it was sophomore slump time for Brad and the Bruins were playing poorly as a team. Trade deadline 2007 came and had the Bruins looking to trade their young scoring star. In what could have been another steal in a long line of Brad Boyes trades, was made palatable for the Bruins as they picked up their now number two defenceman, Dennis Wideman.

That same trade deadline, the Bruins (anticipating Wideman's role on the team) opted to unload underperforming Paul Mara. Instead of picking up a measly second rounder or something from the Rangers, they instead picked up an upgrade on defence with three time Cup finalist (2-time winner) Aaron Ward coming back the other way. Ward, from my assessment of the team vs. the Habs is a key defensive stalwart for the Bruins.

Think of similar opportunities with the Canadiens and you may come up with Rivet for Gorges. there are many more in the loss or lost opportunity column. Souray could have been traded but wasn't. Huet was traded for less than his value. Ribeiro was traded as a cast-off in what looks like an awful waste. Gainey's trades haven't been bad by any standards, but in being conservative all the time as he is, he misses on the big jump that winning a trade big can bring.


Goaltending – Tuukka Rask and Tim Thomas

Tuukka Rask was the number one rated goalie in the 2005 draft. He was taken 21st overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Boston Bruins were lucky enough to acquire Rask as part of another JFJ special – Rask for Raycroft.

Tim Thomas bears little similarity to Rask in career path, prospect status in his youth, style or size. In fact, whereas Rask was touted, Thomas was written off completely. This season, Tim Thomas will win the Vezina trophy. He leads the league in GAA and Save%, has over 30 wins and 4 shutouts.

In addition to a top prospect and an all-star goalie, the Bruins have also chosen to carry a very expensive, yet effective back-up in Manny Fernandez. Though they probably had more reason to trade Fernandez for a second rounder than the Canadiens did to trade Huet, they chose to hold him – presumably because they want to take this chance while it is here.

The way the Bruins are managing 3 goalies as good or better than the Canadiens 2 goalies is interesting. For one thing, they seem to have learned the Price lesson already after a series of burnout goalie prospects like Raycroft and Toivonen. For another, it seems like they crave insurance at the back, almost knowing that goalies can go cold at times for seemingly little reason at all.

This strategy is certainly working well for them this season. And though the forward-looking among us might prefer to write off a season and develop a super-goalie at the top level through trial by fire; Boston seems to accept that playoff success is a tricky business and throwing away one year in the hope of 5 good ones in the future is not a plan they favour.

Here, Montreal has gambled and gone the other way. The problem is Gainey's planning vis-a-vis goalies does not coincide with his planning for other positions – scorers, for example. What's more, our team chose to fly in the face of a good situation one year by writing the playoffs off for a tutoring session. I don't know which technique will ultimately pay the most dividends (I suppose we'll need to count Cups in 20 years), but this piece does not try to answer that – only why Boston is 20-odd points clear of us now.


So, are the Bruins the better team?

Right now, yes. Going forward, probably.


Are these Montreal Canadiens that much worse than the Bruins?

The answer is probably a "no".


In fact, the whole reality to this answer is very clouded, I think. Sometimes, I feel the standings make you look better than you are (such as Montreal 2008 and Boston 2009), they may also make you look worse.

It is also difficult when you judge a team by results alone. I have watched the Canadiens 72 times this season – they have won games they should have lost, lost games they should have won and had many scores misrepresent their actual play. I have not watched the Bruins except for a handful of occasions, but I wouldn't expect their run to be any different. I don't think that any assessment I offer of the Bruins beyond the basics presented here could stand up to our assessment of the Habs.

If I'm to take a rather more positive stance on the Canadiens situation, I could say that I think the Bruins might have had a bit more luck on their side. Call it what you will, but the Bruins have a 10.9% shooting percentage, and it was even higher during the early months of the season. Their "good" players were those whose shots seemingly never missed (like Krejci). The Canadiens have a 9.6% shot accuracy. Our let-downs are players whose shots have been saved.

I bring this up because the Canadiens were the Bruins of 2008 – they snuck a few wins by everyone with some luck and good timing. However, when their timing ran out (in the playoffs). In the regular season, our shooting was a whopping 10.8%, but in the playoffs scoring dried up as we shot at the goalie nearly 92% of the time. The Canadiens made good teams look bad in the regular season and those same good teams look great a few months later in the playoffs.


The answer (and this text) may be rewritten in a month...


It's all in the complicated game of building a team in this ridiculously long competition. Once the rules are changed to suit the Western style of play in a few weeks, you can throw regular season stars out the window. Michael Ryder's 25 goals will most likely become a footnote on another playoff series in which he struggles to contribute. The Ottawa management hand a clear handle on how to dominate the 6 months of meaningless stuff, but only latterly got a grasp on adjustments to be made to get past Toronto.

That s why they say you need to make the dance (or Laraque did anyway). Players who float in and out in the regular season can be activated by simple utterance of the word playoff (we know of one), whereas Boston knows as well as anyone that regular season phenoms can wilt just the same.

The fact is, the Boston Bruins are where we wanted to be in March/April and that is in the playoffs. But this Canadiens team can still get there too. If that is the case, us Habs fans are exactly where we wanted to be too, if only waiting for Game 3 to express our adulation in person.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Beating The Bruins

Remembering What Habs Knew So Well

Last season, thanks to Montreal, the Bruins were a middling regular season club. Last year, thanks to the Canadiens, the Bruins were a first round eliminee. This year, the Bruins have another fate on their minds, and barring a collapse of Ottawaian proportions, they have already surpassed middling. But can the Habs remember a bit of the spellbinding trickery that won them 8 of 8 meetings with their most vicious rivals?


Boston has some astonishing numbers so far this year, so maybe their biggest weakness for the second half will be the law of averages. Take Blake Wheeler and David Krejci's shooting % for example (whose numbers have both started falling since I started researching this): over 20% is unsustainable for even the Ovechkins of the world. Reason says they can't go on shooting at over 20% forever. History tells us scoring streaks like theirs sometimes, but rarely last a whole season – only 2 players topped 20% last season: Mike Ribeiro (who lucked out a whole season at 25%) and Brad Boyes; the next guys were at 18%. Take their goaltenders, both have inordinately high save percentages at the moment. Are they the best tandem of all time, or have they saved their bad goals and sub .900 games for the end of the season?

A real weakness that Boston has is their comeback ability. Someone who wants to impress you will tell you that Boston has only trailed 13 times after the first period and 8 times they have come back from the deficit to win. But I also noticed that the Bruins have not once come back from a deficit at the second intermission. In 7 games (I admit that's impressive), they are 0-6-1.

It's hardly a game plan to say: let's score lots of goals and have a lead at the end of 2 (although it is genius Julien's plan). Yeah, no kidding. However, consider teams top teams like Detroit and San Jose come back after the second nearly 40% of the time. The Habs themselves have rescued 5 wins and an OTL from 14 deficits (0.357). It tells me that if you can get them down, you get get them out of their game, out of their comfort zone.

In a game strategy, I'd make sure that every battle you can win, you win. They are a team that has had things their own way and clearly don't like it when they don't. Score first, score early. Check Chara, expose the others. Take the game to them and don't let them bring it to you.

I saved this article from a week ago about a strategy for beating the Bruins. It was written after a couple of losses about a team that you would have thought from the tone was unbeatable:
"A dastardly plan that will frustrate and eventually defeat the high-powered Bruins attack, and leave their scoring machine in the shop for repairs. Granted, not every team has the talent or discipline or chutzpah to implement Operation Beat the Bruins but teams with enough scoring skills — or grit – to get a lead and a good enough goaltender could do it."

It talks sense, even if it does over-exaggerate the risks of playing in Boston.

Lessons should be easy to come by for the Habs when it comes to beating this Bruins team. Each game last year speak to the same kind of stuff at that article and the fact the Bruins don't like to be out of the driver's seat:

Game 1, we pounded them early and they laid down to take the punishment
Game 2, we did it with defence; but also scored 2 before they could show up
Game 3, we gave them a complex by trading goals for 2 periods before burying them under 25 shots and 3 straight killer goals
Games 4, 5, 6 and 7 we scored first and never gave the Bruins a sniff of victory
Game 8 was the first the Bruins made a contest of it. We toyed with them and took it in a shootout

Over these 8 games, the Bruins never led the Habs. Not for a minute. And, with the exception of Game 5 in the playoffs, the Bruins never came back from a deficit to win against us last season – that was 12 victories for us out of 13 where we took a lead.

They are the team that needs a strategy, methinks. Probably something beyond the genius tactics of a man who twice got himself shipped out from a team who would make the playoffs:
“I think for every team, every game, we talk about [scoring first] and getting an early lead and taking control of the game.”

– Claude Julien

And besides, is this year's Bruins team so different anyway?

Not on paper they aren't. Wins and stats-wise they are worlds apart. But really, let's see. Even Chuck Kobasew looked like a scorer once down there. Time and reality will make us better judges of this Boston hockey outfit.

We must acknowledge they have learned and improved somewhat – for they have beaten the Canadiens twice already, and got points in all three meetings. However, their embarrassing displays against us last season were unnatural. What's more, they are still a team with weaknesses (as per this pseudo-Bruins fan), such as unorthodox goaltending:
Another puzzling part of the picture is Boston's goaltending. Tim Thomas has a 2.08 GAA and .933 save percentage, which defy explanation. Thomas (and most Boston fans would agree) has atrocious positioning and lacks basic fundamentals. Yet, Like Dominic Hasek, he makes the save, no matter how ugly.

And average defence:
A puzzling aspect is Boston's defense, which has remained largely the same since last year. Zdeno Chara is still woefully incompetent with the puck in his own end, and Andrew Ference, Shane Hnidy, Matt Hunwick, Matt Lashoff, Mark Stuart, Dennis Wideman, and Aaron Ward round out what would otherwise be a group of very average defensemen.

Add to that injuries to players like Bergeron, Kessel, Sturm and even Lucic, and they will have to be superhuman to repeat their 62 points from the next half season. The quiet Habs can catch this team as it settles back into Bruins 2008. Let's start tonight.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Series 1: Bruins (Summer) Dome

A busy day and refusal to acknowledge that game even happened on Saturday means that I haven't done the Bruins dome in days. (I can tell from all the comments that you all miss it dearly...)

Anyway, I thought it better, now that they're gone for a few months, that I should review the Bruins series - in this format of course.


Dome hockey team
They're going into the last minute with these 6 against the charity radio contest winners (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...

Forwards

Wasn't looking great for the Bruins forwards on the whole up until Game 4. They came largely as advertised: inexperienced and nonthreatening. Between Sturm, Krejci and Lucic chances Ovechkin would have had 16 goals. Their talent around the net was, however, temporarily born (can't really say reborn, can we?) for a couple of games and a very hairy start to game 7, but ultimately, they left the way they came. A couple stood out, and one other makes the dome because the defence weren't much better for games 1 and 7.

Marc Savard
– a choice for the dome in every game but game 1, where understandable rust kept him out. When I called him the game breaker back before the series began, I meant it, but I never expected him to break so many.

For me, Marc Savard was the Bruins best offensive player by a full body length or two. He doesn't mess around with the puck, does Marc. His passes are crisp and they are smart. Even defencemen we rate very very highly were caught out by seconds on his passes. Unfortunately for Marc and the Bruins, so were his wingers. Even though he ended up leading the Bruins in points, from some of the passes I saw, he could have been leading the playoff tournament with even a half-decent finisher on his flank.

It's not all wax lyrical though. Even though he did save a goal, his defensive play was not the stuff that has people lining up to put him on for the last 2 minutes. Even so, I will here

Phil Kessel
– Claude Julien showed all the imagination he was known for in Montreal in this series. Benching Phil Kessel was the tactical error of the series. Amazing he managed to trump even Carbo's dandgerous duo gaffe. This was Montreal prospect development of old - make all of em into defensive forwards. Sorry Claude, Phil played selfishly and concentrated on offence not defence. Um, that's what he is paid to do. As the only talented goalscorer on your team, you truly missed out when a goal was all you needed.

Phil himself came back to prove that he was what he promised to be - an offensive threat and an unpredictable nightmare for defences. His goal in Game 5 was pure goalscorer, and his double in Game 6 were just reward. He even looked the threat again in Game 7, stifled only by his nemesis to be for the next 20 years, Mr. Price.

While Lucic gained all the praise for what in the end turned out to be having a big body and not much else, Kessel was the wonderful prospect on show. Like other small Bruins forwards before him, you only wonder how long it will be until he is packaged and sent away for a Dennis Wideman on defence or something

He gets into my dome on the basis of three strong games to finish up (oh wait, 3/4)

Marco Sturm
– as I said earlier, this forward gets the consolation prize. In game 1, I had Shane Hnidy up front. Nokelainen has made it. Even Schaefer. But Sturm was the class of the ones without skill.

It would be unfair to say he has no skill, for he is one of the fastest skaters I can remember seeing recently. He also plays a mean PK. But when he sniffs a goal, know that it will be single digit completion rates for Sturm. In this series, he directed 23 shots at Price on his own. The lasting memory of Sturm from this series will be of him missing those breakaways - he had at least three clear-cut breakaways and countless open chances. But, despite all that, he's still number three among the forwards and into the dome.

If Sturm were worse he would be Axelsson (hence his omission from my dome), if he were better I probably wouldn't have written about him while I sulked

NOTES:
How does Lucic miss?
Frequently. No, seriously, Lucic proved he was big, immature and unhoned around the net. When people stopped caring about his hits, he looked lost.

How does Axelsson miss?
If I believed the PK was the key to the series, I would have put him in here, believe me. But a team that scored less than a goal every 10 chances just made the second round. Where was Axelsson at even strength in games 1, 6 and 7? Add to that his total ineptitude going forward. You have an answer.


Defencemen

Zdeno Chara
- seven for seven I think. I called him gamemaker, and made games he did. Claude Julien pored over his arsenal incessantly between games for a weapon to use, but kept coming back with Chara. Not surprisingly either given how well he can play.

If anyone is confused about where the Habs offence went, you should have a look under Chara's equipment back. He almost singlehandedly took care of both Kovalev and Plekanec. And once Kovalev was frustrated, out went the PP and Kostitsyn too. His skill goes beyond his size (he's developed since the Islander days), as he plays a very good possession and maintain possession game with a functional shot and surprisingly deft pass. While I think it's a travesty he is nominated for the Norris trophy on the merits of regular season play over Markov, he certainly out dueled him over the seven games.

In addition to the dome, Chara is player of the series for the Bruins and another reason fans of the Senators are looking up at the sky these days

Aaron Ward
- standing out among Bruins defencemen is no easy task. It seems each D is mandated to play an ultra simple game, compounded by the fact that this is how they believed Montreal would be vanquished.

For me, over the seven Aaron Ward was the second standout among defenders. A good distance behind Chara in both execution and skill, any team should nonetheless be happy to have Ward in the fold

As a defensive defenceman, he didn't really do much to make me stand up and rave about, but there is one thing. I suspect that Ward was playing with quite a decent injury and playing well too. In addition, he carries himself well avoiding some of the dirtier play his counterparts partake in. All in all a good right for Chara's left

Goaltender

Tim Thomas
- alright throughout the series. Nothing more, nothing less. Amazingly, apart from the first and last 30 minutes of the series, that's pretty much all he needed to be. Having doubted him for so long, I almost expected him to rear up and kill the Habs like Andy Moog would have.

Instead, Thomas let in timely (or untimely if you're Bruins folk) goals in at least 3 losses. You cannot allow a goal a minute into a playoff series (with a second to follow in short shrift). Nor can you allow a Swiis defenceman to score the backbreaker on a breakaway. Not if you want to be a playoff here anyway. Still, if you want to be in the dome for a team that lost in the first round of the playoffs, all that will suffice.

I predict the next time the Canadiens play the Bruins in the playoffs it will be a goaltenders duel between 2005 draftees. I predict Thomas has played his Huet February here. Some team like Detroit might just benefit from Boston's youth movement yet


So, who's next? Who do we want? New York or Philly? A team we fear or another team we will underestimate?

Friday, April 18, 2008

Game #1-5: Bruins Dome

A few goals and a few Habs mistakes will make other Habs fans take notice of the Bruins for the first time in over a year. The fact is, some of the players in this done have been here since game 1.


Dome hockey team
They're going into the last minute with these 6 against the Montreal Canadiens (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...

Forwards

Marc Savard
– before the breakout (or the collapse if you choose to see it that way), I thought Marc Savard was the best forward on the Bruins. He was pivotal in terms of turning the tide. He set up a few chances on the PP for the Bruins before they figured out how to shoot straight. Every time Krejci's name came up (with largely overblown praise from RDS), it was through some clever play Savard had made

Phil Kessel
– you have to give credit to this young man – the Bruins were flailing without a goalscorer, he put himself forward as an answer, he delivered. The goal he scored on the PP was completely of his own making. Not only that, it was a gamebreaker. I think Lucic, Murray and Krejci could have 50 more chances and not scored. Kessel outclassed them as goalmen with ease. If the Bruins do lose this series, will the Boston fans question Julien's hard-headedness when it came to Kessel? If I cared for the Bruins, i would

Marco Sturm
– on what must have been his 10th short-handed breakaway of the series, Sturm scored. Albeit the goal was scored on a petulant and disinterested Price, but a goal nonetheless. Sturm was rewarded for constant play over all the games and basically for being a fast mofo. It's easy to see why he led the Bruins in goals, but also apparent why he doesn't lead the league.

I'd like give him credit for killing the Habs penalties, but I don't really call passive box hockey (the Habs are responsible for their own futility there)


Defencemen

Zdeno Chara
- a fixture here. In fact, he would have been out, but for the turnaround (collapse). He was flagging in the second, making bad passes, even letting Kovalev through. IN the third, however, he played a big role in the surge. His goal was the straw that broke the camel's back

Dennis Wideman
- a split from Chara was just what the doctor ordered for Wideman. He played a good game as a puck-carrying defenceman, which greatly aided the Bruins to maintain the amount of possession they did. A question for the Canadiens, though: as good as Wideman is, might it be worth challenging him once in a while?


Goaltender

Tim Thomas
- no significant challenges for Thomas, but you can't fault him for that. he was the goalie during the game and so he is the goalie here, not much explanation beyond that, really. Two of the real Habs chances he actually let right by, so he's not unbeatable or anything. More shots like Kovalev's on the PP will go a long way to getting Auld another dome appearance. I want the Habs to play so well Manny Fernandez gets a chance in here, though


Though the Canadiens set the tempo early, by letting the Bruins take control in the second and hold the puck more, any fan could see what was at risk. I'll tell you that no bruins were underlined in my notes until the second. By the end of the game, there were choices to be made for the dome for the first time, really, this series. So, let's be honest the bruins are still beatable, they were even ready to be beat last night. I think a little more keying on Savard and Sturm and a lot less on Lucic will go a long way to making those 2-1 wins possible again. If Carbonneau wants to get dangerous, he could even try taking advantage of a slow defence corps by letting his skating players play.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Meet The Bruins: Key Pillars

Go to Tobalev's Habs Preview.

So important are the playoffs that they warrant a special look at the special players on the other team for once. Of course, we'll still look at the Canadiens in depth, but this post should give people watching some idea of those guys on the ice that we suddenly finding ourselves hating with raging enthusiasm.

No, not the refs...

The Boston Bruins.


To begin, I thought I'd remind everyone of a few key thoughts:

1) The Bruins were better against all other opposition than we were this year

2) How is that possible?

3) Does it matter?


My blogging colleague explained to us why he thought the Bruins managed so many points without any one person that could be marked out. Russ from the Bruins Report (a great Bruins blog) – check it out if you have the time – said:

The Bruins were good against the rest of the East because they have, for the most part, played a solid, simple defensive scheme in their own zone that allowed them to minimize scoring chances down low, and kept the majority of the shots to the perimeter. Tim Thomas was more effective playing behind this style of defense, and allowed him to modify his "crazy flailing everywhere like Hasek only not as good"
style.


So, I thought I'd have a peek behind the curtains and introduce everyone to those I see as important to this scheme and the Bruins success:

The last line – Tim Thomas

Drafted by the Quebec Nordiques in 1994, if nothing else, Tim Thomas has outlasted his fellow Quebec goalie draftees Thibault, Fiset and Tugnutt. His career, however, has taken a very different path to those once Quebec starters – taking him to a professional career in Europe and back to North America. Since his reclamation from the Finnish leagues, he has had quite substantial success with the Bruins.

This season has been no exception – Thomas has posted great numbers with the Black and Gold. Following the regular season, he ranked 4th in the entire league in save percentage with a gaudy .921 rate, with a respectable 2.44 GAA and 3 shutouts. In fact, he was having a Vezina trophy season until about the end of November where he underwent a temporary meltdown. When I defined an excellent game as one with a Save% of 0.920 or more, then I was fairly surprised to see that Thomas has 37 excellent games this year (out of 57 GP). In a way this runs contrary to the story on him that he runs hot and cold. For most of this season anyway, he has been running hot.

This statement does of course need to be qualified. He has been anything but hot against the Canadiens. He has been mediocre by his own high standards, and uncharacteristically has cost his team on one or two occasions:


In particular, early goals, which threw his team into their old habits against Montreal were his and Boston's undoing on a couple of occasions.

In any case, though he may not be favoured around the league's pundits, Tim Thomas is a top goaltender, a starter through and through. However, like Carey Price, Tim is an NHL playoff rookie, so won't bring years of NHL experience to the table. He does bring some from other competitions, much like his counterpart.


If a goalie's duel develops, Boston will be in good hands. I think that's the first thing on Boston's wish list and the last thing the Canadiens would want.


The Game Maker – Zdeno Chara

Chara comes advertised as the leader of this Bruins team. He wears that C on his chest and has allegedly been key in a lot of their success this season. In fact, if you asked a Canadiens fan who typified the Bruins we have seen this season, then many I'm sure would also say Chara. He has been sub-par on many occasions against the Habs, and downright comical on others. In any case, the thing to remember here is:

As Chara goes, so do the Bruins.

To give some idea, recently Chara missed 5 games when the Bruins were sitting pretty for the playoffs. His absence coincided with 4 losses (2 in OT) and one one close win (OT). All were against teams the Bruins had previously handled quite well. He was missed to say the least. had his absence been longer, the Bruins would be done and dusted and we'd be playing the Hurricanes. Phew for that one...

Statistically, he has also had quite a successful season. 17 goals and 34 assists for a defenseman is strong. His 17 goals put him 2nd in the league among Dmen. His 51 points rank 10th in the league. He has had 20 outstanding games (which I defined as games with either 2 points or with a +2 rating). In those games, Boston got points in 18. One was against the Habs, so blame the ghosts (like Sinden), not Chara.

But it's never really been the statistics with Chara has it? When he played with Ottawa (after he learned to skate), he was Montreal's worst nightmare. Whenever we played Ottawa, we could only realistically hope for about 10minutes in their zone – most of it when Chara was off the ice – because the big man and Redden were so effective at smothering the forwards. Something changed though – the rules. Now, Buffalo can exploit him, Carolina can and as we've seen, so can the Habs.

Chara is still an outstanding defenseman with an amazing shot, but he has been disarmed of one of his main weapons since the lockout – holding. Despite this he can still be excellent if teams choose to play a throwback style of hockey where screening and wrestling are preferred to passing and skating. Just another reason the Habs need to set the agenda for this series.


The Game Breaker – Marc Savard

Quite a tag for little Marc Savard from Ottawa. Not so little if you believe Yahoo, who call him 199 lbs or something. Other sites weighed him without his soaking wet equipment on and have him at a stocky 190ish.

He is the Game Breaker on the Bruins because if the Bruins need a goal they don't have too many other places to look. they will certainly look to Marc first (assuming he even plays).

Savard's NHL career has taken many twists and turns following a revelation or two in junior. Drafted and let go by New York, then tried but released in Calgary, finally success but disinterest from Atlanta, he has now landed in Boston with a huge raise.

Strange that his employers always seem to let him go without much of a fight. Even Calgary, who needed a passer of his pedigree and learned the small-man lesson the hard way with Martin St. Louis. The truth behind these occurrences probably lies somewhere between defensive disaster and costly for what you get. If rumours are to be believed, Marc has turned around his defensive game at the behest of Claude Julien, and now provides value for money on the Bruins.

Maybe not so surprising when you consider none of his teams have ever made the playoffs until this one. In fact, should he play, this will be Marc Savard's first ever playoff game at the tender age of 30.

In looking at his game log, I looked for multiple point games. You figure, top scorer, lots of multiple point games. Well, let's say Marc likes to be more consistent. He did have a respectable 19 multiple point games. 14 were Bruins wins, they got points in 16. Strikingly, only 3 were games where he managed more than 2 points. However, when you think about it, this probably says more about the Bruins than it does about the man.

One thing you could never deny about Marc is his ability to pass the puck. It goes back to WJC in 1993 even. People who watch him on a regular basis talk about his passes finding players who still thought they were fighting to get away from coverage. His mind thinks ahead of defenders, his stick can carry out his wishes (though apparently his wishes do not include shooting very often). This what people said about all the great passers. What's more, this season Marc ended up 3rd in the NHL for assists, just behind Joe Thornton and Datsyuk. Last season, third behind Thornton and Crosby. The man keeps good company. certainly a player to keep an eye on. besides, passes like the ones described are a thing of beauty no matter whose shoving the disc.

We have been hearing that Marc Savard will be available to play. However, if he doesn't it will be a gaping hole for the Bruins. To look beyond Marc Savard for a Game Breaker is hard work with Bergeron and Kobasew out. The obvious candidate will be Marco Sturm, whose more beneficiary than benefactor when it comes to making plays.


The Great Hope – Phil Kessel

The final man in the Bruins equation for me is Phil Kessel.

Less production in his draft year, he eventually slipped to 5th overall behind some serious prospects. If anyone remembers the year before that though, Phil Kessel was the American Sydney Crosby. In fact, in 2005, he was putting up more than a goal and 2 points per game in the US National development program. In other words, the boy has pedigree and the boy has skill.


What must not be forgotten is that he is still a young man. 20 to be exact. But for me, in his first NHL playoff series, he will be key to the Bruins chances.

For one thing, as we've mentioned, the Bruins don't have a wealth of scoring options, especially if you factor in the injured players. For a second thing, Phil Kessel is probably the best natural goalscorer among them anyway, any day.

A coach who knew his back was up against it – vs. the team that had defeated his rather unimaginative strategy 8 times in a row – might choose to put a wildcard like Kessel in a key role. Say, with a passer who could thread passes that other people wouldn't have thought of. Claude Julien is not this coach. At least he has not shown a willingness to be him yet – even with his team in dire straits following Chara's injury. In the last meaningful game, Kessel played with Schaefer and Sobotka. He managed to score anyway. in the last game against Montreal, more third line action with Krejci and Lucic, all while Kobasew gets to play with Marc Savard.

We have been lucky to see our young players come through this year in Montreal. it has been a huge factor in our success. If Boston are to succeed, I feel the same will be a requirement for them, with Kessel success leading the way. If he is let off his leash, Montreal should have someone new to concern themselves with.

Go to Tobalev's Habs Preview.

Thursday, November 08, 2007

The hostile hosts: Boston Bruins

Part of blogging is getting to debate and share with your readers and fellow bloggers. Habs bloggers until now, but I thought it was time to reach out to those blogging our rivals.

It's back to the old days now, both Boston and ourselves managing to put NHL teams together. I know it's early yet, but it looks like both the Habs and the Bruins could be in the playoffs by the end of the season.

The Bruins have had a pretty good start this season, but have lost a few games of late. If you could point to a turning point in their young campaign, it would be the game against the Habs a few weeks ago. Now that's something to be proud of Habs fans.


For me, this is our premiere rivalry. We have a long history with the Bruins. but more importantly, we have a recent history, with playoff battle royales and eliminations on either side. While Toronto fans want to be our biggest rivals, they just spent too much time in the Campbell Conference during my childhood means I won't relinquish the Bruins place in my heart so easily.

In any case, let's hear what Russ, a great Bruins blogger, at The Bruins Report has to say about his team, our team and tonight's game:

I think the biggest key issue in Montreal's favor is their speed up front. Boston's D has been better lately, but are still somewhat slow. You're looking at a situation where the D is anchored by the #1 in Chara, then has a bunch of #4 - #6 defensemen plugging in the rest of the roster slots. They're big, and can hit (Ward, Alberts, Stuart) but have had issues going up against teams that have solid speed up front.

One other key issue right now in Boston is scoring - with Bergeron out (potentially for the season) all the lines have been juggled and so far it seems that Chuck Kobasew is one of the few that've kept their game. Kessel's also come on strong as well.

If the B's defense can help contain Montreal's speed, that'll go a long way to keeping the Habs from scoring another 6 goals :-) Tim Thomas has been great in the net this season and is pretty much a lock to be starting against Montreal [NOTE: Since Russ sent this through a certain rookie phenom (and Leaf castoff) named Tuukka Rask looks a possibility in net to go head-to-head with Price]. I'd look to someone like Savard or Murray (hopefully) to have a strong game and help spark the B's up front, and I think Kessel will be strong all season long.


As I said in my weekly review, the Bruins are neither as good as their start, or as bad as their game against us. Judging by Russ' conservative assessment and his leaving the door open to the possibility of a Habs win, I have a feeling he feels the same way. I also have to agree with Russ about speed. The Canadiens main asset vs. the Bruins is their speed. The Canadiens are built for speed, the Bruins are not. If we play the game at pace, they shouldn't beat us most nights.

I think the game will be a real treat for fans of goaltending if the two most heralded goaltending prospects in the world at the moment play head-to-head. Tuukka Rask (from Price's draft year) has played some strong hockey down in Providence, and can apparently rival Price in talent and temperament. Should be fun.