Habs in Unfamiliar Territory

Date: 14/10/2017
Opponent: Toronto
Location: Bell Centre
Loss: 4-3 (OT)

Montreal Goalie: Price (L)
Toronto Goalie: Andersen (W)

Montreal goalscorers:  Petry, Galchenyuk, Drouin
Toronto goalscorers: van Riemsdyk, Matthews (2), Marleau

Two points off an old foe keep the Habs in the hunt

Date: 23/01/2016
Opponent: Toronto
Location: Toronto
Win: 3-2 (SO)

Habs Goalie: Condon (W)
Opposition Goalie: Reimer (L)

Habs goalscorers: Desharnais, Fleischmann
Opposition goalscorers: Kadri, Lupul

You Win Some, You Lose Some

It has long been a major complaint of mine that referees who make no pittance of a salary for officiating the games we watch (and number far too many on the ice and off) are so inconsistent at their application of NHL rules.

Last night, we had to watch an overtime and a shootout, and a loss, because the pair of referees and goodness knows how many people in Toronto missed Thomas Vanek sweeping our goaltender into the net for a goal (an interference call if there ever was one).

Game 1 in Review: Low Quality Hockey On The NHL's Return

Thanks to everyone who responded by picking players for the dome. I think it went very well. It's not the dome I would have chosen, but I think we knew that would be the case after 5 years of arguing about these picks.

I won't be doing recaps after every game (sometimes, I'll group them in a weekly recap), but this being the first game, I'm making the exception.

Game #82Montreal And Staubitz Too Good For Lacklustre Leafs

Details

Date: 07/04/2012
Opponent: Maple Leafs
Location: Montreal

Win: 4-1

Habs Goalie: Budaj (W)
Opposition Goalie: Scrivens (L)

Habs goalscorers: Plekanec, Pacioretty Cole, Staubitz
Opposition goalscorers: Phaneuf

Play of the game

Price's cowboy hat (people wear those for real?) and Staubitz's first goal of the season at the last possible moment were noteworthy, but the best play was Cole's goal. It reminded me so much of Lafleur, but also of Cole himself. Down the right side with speed and gusto went Erik who made no mistake whatsoever on the career AHL-er. The goal was his 35th of the season.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Max Pacioretty
Maybe it is a good thing there are no playoffs because this sure is getting boring, isn't it. Every game the same players step up, every game they do it in the same way. It makes watching, writing, and I am sure reading very repetitive. Max scored and added an assist and, therefore, ended with a very impressive 65 points. The US will enjoy his play at World's and we'll all look forward to September to see him again.

Tomas Plekanec
When the Leafs had an early 5-on-3 the last thing I expected was a goal by us. I actually thought that an early goal by Toronto would be just what we needed to ensure a loss. What I underestimated, however, was how bad Toronto's players are. Not to take away from Pleks (only the second player to score in that situation that year), but it was two mistakes in our end that led to the breakaway and then horrible goaltending that allowed the uncontrolled puck to trickle in.

Erik Cole
Erik is the player we all dreamed of getting 3 years ago (Gomez, Gionta or Cammelleri) and is way better than the player we thought we got last July (Cole). He played with passion and pride every single game this year and is the perfect player to be leading a young group. I like Gionta, but wonder if his captaincy, like the reign of the coach and gm, should come to an end this year. If so, Erik would be the obvious choice in that regard.

Defencemen

Josh Gorges
Josh played another solid game and ended the season as one of only two players to play all 82 games (Cole). It was a good bounce-back year after his injury last year and one can only hope that the same happens for Markov in 12-13. Gorges, along with Markov, Emelin and Subban form a good top-4, or 4 of top-5; it will be interesting to see who sticks come game #1.

PK Subban
One of the best plays by Subban was his hit on Brown. Hitting is such a small part of his game, but he is still so good at it. To me that shows just how good he is as he has so many different tools; offence, defence, skating and passion are a few more of his other skills. It was another good game from PK in what was an up and down season (although, admittedly up of late). The 22 year-old is getting better all the time and hopefully has many good years in Montreal to come. I guess, like us, he'll be watching the lottery and draft with interest.

Goaltender

Peter Budaj - Game Puck
Peter played well again tonight and has actually been quite good of late. In fact, in his last 7 games (the last 4 weeks) he has a save % of .931. Maybe, in the end, he has earned himself an NHL job, back here in Montreal that is. These last few weeks should give management the confidence that he can be a decent back-up, but should also serve as a warning that he should be playing more. The cupboard is bare beyond him for sure, but if Price is healthy and if Budaj gets 25 games (he got 17 this year) I think we'll still be in a good goaltending spot next year.

Comments

So, there it is. 82 games have come and gone. It is a little disappointing that we were written off in October or November by so many and that they were right. We had so many chances and reasons to turn it around all year, but things just didn't work out. Trading Cammelleri and waiting forever for Markov to come back have to rank as the highest of the reasons though. I'm not sure we should have kept Camms, but the return we got (8 points in 38 games - 3 less than Gomez in the same amount of games) was absolutely pathetic. It killed our second line 3 months ago.

Tonight was disappointing in that for once I wanted us to lose a last minute game against Toronto. My guess is that the Leafs didn't want to win, but then again they are horrible, so maybe that was indeed their best. It was fitting that our top-3 forwards scored as they (and Desharnais of course) have carried us all season long. As sad as that seems (carry us to last that is, as we have been atrocious), just imagine where we would have been without the Cole line, without 242/246 games played from that trio. Next year we can't rely on them and them alone again. Our goal this summer has to be to build a real top-line (I would love 3 players better than Cole) or at least a line as good as that one. Pleks can be one piece, but who will the other two be? A draft pick in there would be great and a new acquisition, from a trade or free-agency, seems a must.

That's it then, another long season over and another summer to enjoy other things. Thanks to all the readers and loyal Habs fans out there. There are a ton of fans who jumped ship in the Fall or Winter, but if you are reading this you didn't. The team needs real fans and that, we have enough of. Now all we need is a good GM, a good coach, a good draft pick, a few good new forwards and a whole new winning regime. Sounds like Molson is going to have a pretty busy summer if he is going to keep us happy, as for me, I am now in sit-back and watch (and likely complain, but hopefully rejoice) mode.

NHL March Mathness

Usually this time of the year is fun for the math geeks among us because we get to play with playoff odds. The most adept start talking about permutations about now, while we'd expect an article from the mainstream to come out explaining how the results of the last three games determine a whole season of work.

Talk of odds was on the rise for a few minutes in February, but has thoroughly subsided with consecutive losses. The Habs could make the playoffs in theory, but only in about 0.03% of scenarios, most of which ask them to win 15 games in a row.

So odds aren't making the rounds much these days. That doesn't mean there isn't some math to talk about.


Toronto Maple Leafs
First, we have the Leafs. When the Canadiens were in the running with a nearly 20% chance at the playoffs, the Leafs stood at 70% or higher on most days. But since they fell from 8 games above 0.500 to none, the Leafs have shed a lot of playoff hope.

This may be of little interest to many, but to Habs fans who conceded a season 30 games too soon, watching falling Leaves is about as good as things can get.

Their chances of making the playoffs according to simulation at Sports Club Stats stands at 8.3%. The most likely scenario now placing them with a mediocre 83 points and no chance at games in April or top two picks. So exactly in that zone we would dread to be in as Montreal fans, and one which is so familiar (and possibly responsible) for a playoffless Toronto franchise.


Edmonton Oilers

Second, we have the Edmonton Oilers. I am not alone in citing them as the chief rivals to Montreal's bid to win a top two pick. Tonight, the Habs meet the young bucks in what I am calling the Grigorenko Cup -- a battle to the ends of the clock for most goals against and most credible losing display.

The math with Edmonton is simple. They stand at this time 2 points behind the Canadiens with a game in hand (admittedly games in hands for teams like these two mean 0 points more often than not). A regulation loss in the Grogorenko Cup would give the Canadiens the coveted lower hand in this race to Russian redemption.

Obviously the Oilers would stand equal on points and would have one more game to negotiate without slipping up to grab a point. That's just the start.

The tie-break is also important here.

Currently the Habs have one less regulation or OT win (ROW) than the Oilers, and consequently would win the first tie break. By manoeuvring Edmonton into a win this evening, the advantage would be doubled and make a tie in points a win (remember loss is win now) to the Canadiens.

The next tie break is head-to-head record. In a symmetrical season series such as this one, the tie break is simple -- who got the most points. With an early season loss to the Oilers, the Habs already have the edge in this tie break and could reinforce it with another loss. Winning this tie break would make a tie in the previous tie break a winning scenario too, giving that much more wiggle room for the futile home team.

In the worst case scenario, the Canadiens will win in regulation producing a gulf in points of 4, an equal number of ROWs and a deadlock in the 3rd tie break. This wouldn't be great, not only because of the points, but also because the Habs currently lose the fourth tie break of goal differential, where they haven't been quite bad enough.

An OTL wouldn't be ideal, but is workable.


Draft lottery 2012

I'm sure there are some of you out there who have the same misguided notions about the draft lottery that I used to have. I thought long ago that the lottery was like a raffle where the bottom 5 teams had so many tickets and each was drawn until the order was established.

This is not so. There is only one drawing in the draft lottery and after that team is drawn they merely move up 4 places in the order and the rest shift down accordingly. All 14 non-playoff teams have a chance to be drawn (with diminishing odds, of course). If the 17th place team is drawn, what happens is that they move up to 10th in the draft and 18th to 21st become 11th to 14th picks. All the teams from 22nd to 30th continue as if nothing ever happened retaining the first nine picks.

So the odds for being drawn are not exactly the odds for getting the pick you want.

These are the odds for being drawn:

25.0% - 30th
18.8% - 29th
14.2% - 28th
10.7% - 27th
8.1% - 26th
6.2% - 25th
4.7% - 24th
3.6% - 23rd
2.7% - 22nd
2.1% - 21st
1.5% - 20th
1.1% - 19th
0.8% - 18th
0.5% - 17th


Columbus as it happens will come last. So they have a 100% chance of a top two pick. Because they don't have to win the lottery to pick first, their odds of winning that pick are 25% + the sum of all the odds for teams 17 to 25, which amounts to 48.2%. That would be a lovely position to be in (though I'm not sure the hundreds of fans in Columbus would agree), but it's just not in the cards for the Habs.

Instead we look at positions lower in the order.

Were the Habs to come 29th (beat the Oilers), their odds would look like this:

1st pick: 18.8% (need to win lottery)
2nd pick: 42.0% (CBJ or team lower than 6th wins)
3rd pick: 39.2% (a team from 3rd to 6th wins lottery)

A whopping 60.8% chance of a top two pick.


If the Habs maintain their current position without "passing" Edmonton, the odds are as follows:

1st pick: 14.2%
2nd pick: 0.0%
3rd pick: 56.1%
4th pick: 29.7%

A paltry 14.2% chance of a top two pick.


Since top two is really where it's at, teams from 25th to 28th still have a hope, but only through winning the lottery (you can see those odds above). The benefits of finishing lower come in the position that is retained if a team higher (30th) or lower than wins.

Where the Habs may be lucky is in the fact that it is the Oilers and not another rival in the catbird seat. Looking up and down the Oilers, one finds dynamic scorer after dynamic scorer, but nary a goalie or defenceman around. The team needs a young defender like the Habs need two full scoring lines (a lot), and though they might be happier to retain the losing position, a trade down the road might not be out of the question.


2013 Draft lottery

I don't mean to disturb some sleeping monster, but to those unaware, the NHL and their players association currently have no CBA for next season. The last time this happened, there was no season. And though it's hard to imagine the league taking another PR hit of that magnitude, several factors suggest it's not out of the realm of possibility:

1) The US barely noticed a season without hockey last time
2) Canada came back in stronger numbers to support (though another strike may be a step too far)
3) The NHLPA don't like where they are and have brought in a harder line lawyer to lead their negotiation
4) The NHL owners don't like where they are and wish to reduce the proportion of revenues allotted to players

There are some sticking points there and based on judgments of things most important to owners (PR vs. more revenue in the pocket) and players (share of revenue vs. year of short career), there could be a standoff.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that there is no season. What happens in that scenario is a draft in 2013 without a season's standings to inform it. Last time this happened, Montreal walked away with a high pick by beating the odds somewhat and Pittsburgh nabbed their corner piece.

There's no formula set in stone for a draft of this kind, and perhaps it will be part of negotiation. But last time, it was based on a few things: results of the previous three seasons of play (specifically playoff participation) with some sort of penalty for getting a first overall pick (though it didn't hurt Pittsburgh or Columbus, only Washington). The system is flawed and was clearly dreamt up by someone more likely part of the Penguins than the Capitals organization.

But let's imagine the season is lost and a system that is more equitable to teams that are actually bad at that moment in time (as the real draft is). The Canadiens would stand in good stead.

Game #66 Falling Leafs Bury Habs

Details

Date: 3/03/2012
Opponent: Maple Leafs
Location: Montreal

Loss: 1-3

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Gustavsson (W)

Habs goalscorers: Cole
Opposition goalscorers: Frattin, Grabovski (2)

Play of the game

Pacioretty held up his rush and threw in a shot with Desharnais crashing Gustavsson. The centreman grabbed the loose puck and threw it over to the slot, where a waiting Erik Cole buried his 23rd of the year.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Max Pacioretty
He's been the quiet one of his line the last couple games I've watched, but the fact remains that this trio is the only one the Habs have running that can actually score.

Erik Cole
Came through early to put the Habs up in the first period. Had a lot of great rushes at Gustavsson and although I wish he'd been able to put one of those away, there's no one else generating the offense he does every game. Wish he hadn't taken that bone-headed penalty at the end.

David Desharnais
The final cog in what seems to be the entirety of our offensive machine. Desharnais is a smart, tough player with a nose for the net and great hockey sense. A key piece of the team's future.

Defencemen

PK Subban
Hit, shot, played good defence and quarterbacked the power play. Got under the Leafs' skins. What else do you want?

Chris Campoli
Actually liked what I saw from Campoli tonight. Led the team in hits (5) and tied for the lead for blocked shots (3). Liked Weber tonight too, but I gave Campoli the edge.

Goaltender

Carey Price - Game Puck
Made some tremendous saves, even if the 42 shots recorded for the Leafs was a little misleading. I didn't feel like any of the goals was particularly weak, but neither were they particularly spectacular. Still, Price was one of the few positives of the evening.

Comments

A bit of a sleeper, which is a surprise given we were facing the Leafs. We really didn't seem to have much killer instinct, and we missed some serious assignments in our end. Kessel was left wide open in 2nd only to be robbed by Price, but Grabovski buried his opportunity on the PP late in the 3rd. On our side, Gustavsson made plenty of mistakes and we failed to take advantage.

We still didn't see much offense from anyone beyond the Cole/Desharnais/Pacioretty line, although the last 2 or 3 minutes featured a little bit from the Eller and Plekanec lines. We'll need to find some secondary scoring if we expect to improve our record.

Game #56Dominance In TO; Habs Win Big 4-Pointer

Details

Date: 11/02/2012
Opponent: Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto

Win: 5-0

Habs Goalie: Price (W)
Opposition Goalie: Reimer (L), Gustavsson

Habs goalscorers: Cole, Bourque, Pacioretty, Eller, Darche
Opposition goalscorers: None

Play of the game

Eller has some serious moves and they never look better than when they are made to embarrass the Leafs defensively-challenged captain. After a good play in the neutral zone, Lars came in and mocked not only Phneuf, but Reimer too. It was a great goal, but, boy, did those three players help to make it look really easy.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Tomas Plekanec
Pleks had another great game as he is certainly in that playoff-mode (no, not the girlie type) that we need him to be in. He picked up 2 points again and now has 5 in the 4 wins. This was a good night to have Moen miss as Pleks' unit had little to do, but I do hope he'll be back beside Darche and Tom soon.

Mathieu Darche
The coach likes Darche, that much is obvious. But, what does he bring to the Habs? If anything, he brings passion and a love for the CH more than anyone on the team. This guy plays with all his heart and it makes up for any lack of skill. When you play with that much heart and you get that much ice-time generally things can happen for you and they did tonight with a goal and an assist.

Erik Cole
More of the same from the Habs' top forward. With the Habs playing as well as they did and Toronto playing as bad as they did Cole wasn't needed to be outstanding tonight. He didn't mind though as he still went about his business and notched his 20th of the season (17th in last 40 games). Could it be that Cole's leadership is finally paying off? Have enough of the Habs followed his lead such that we are once again a good team? As of now it looks that way, but let's check back in couple of weeks.

Defencemen

Josh Gorges
The Leafs had two PP's before we scored our first goal. Without good penalty-killing this could have been a much different game, but once again we were excellent. Other than Price, no one was better than Gorges. In all he logged 7 minutes short-handed and frustrated the Leafs on numerous occasions.

Hal Gill
This was Mats Sundin night and no Leaf, current or former, was better than soon to be 37 year-old Hal Gill. I am thrilled about that, but one would think that there should be 20 pretty ashamed Leaf players in the dressing room right now. The best part is that Gill wasn't even that good. He was great on the PK and was our second best D-man, but there just wasn't a lot to do for any of the seven tonight.

Goaltender

Carey Price - Game Puck
Price may have got lucky, thanks to the posts, to get the shutout, but he wasn't lucky that we won. He was so good early on and until it was 2-0 that he made the other players' jobs so much easier. A hot Carey makes this team better and that is exactly what we have on our hands right now.

Comments

Montreal dominated a game that we needed to win tonight. We played a tight first period and relied on some good D and PK'ing to get us there. After that, when the game started to open up, we picked apart their defence and that led to a plethora of goals. They out-shot us, but there was no doubt as to which team outplayed who. Winning, especially in regulation, was huge for us and to win 5-0 makes it that much sweeter. This was a total team-effort which has been the theme of our 4 wins in 7 days week.

2 weeks ago we thought that there was a chance. Last week, there was no way we could even continue to think about the playoffs. This week, what is it? Well, we are 7 points back of 8th and we have 26 games to go. Of course, mathematically, we are still very much alive. But, is this a team that can get another 35 points in those games? Even then, would that be enough? All along I have believed that we may as well go for it and now, of course, there is no change to that. I do think that it is possible, but not because I think that we are a spectacular team or because we were unlucky earlier in the year. No, I think it because, first and foremost, we have a pretty easy schedule till the end of the year (have a look yourself) and the other reason is that we are getting better as a team and, like it or not Ontario, other teams are getting worse.

I have 26 more games to watch this year, and I know what I'll be cheering for. Go Habs.

Game #48Hurting Toronto's Chances? The Next Best Thing

Details

Date: 21/01/2012
Opponent: Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto

Win: 3-1

Habs Goalie: Price (W)
Opposition Goalie: Gustavsson (L)

Habs goalscorers: Bourque, Diaz, Eller
Opposition goalscorers: Lombardi

Play of the game

In a weird way the play of the game tonight was Kaberle's penalty. With two minutes to go I trust our PK more than I trust us at even-strength. So, once we went man-down I was much more confident that we would hold on. In the end we held on and Toronto couldn't even get one of the two goals they needed. We needed a win and we needed a clean last two minutes - a penalty (who would have thought?) was just what the doctor ordered.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Rene Bourque
We were told that he would score goals by being on the doorstep and, after 4 games, that is what he finally did. The goal was his highlight, but it wasn't a bad game otherwise. We'll need more goals from him if we are to keep winning, if that is what we want to do of course.

Erik Cole
Erik was the best forward again, surprise, surprise. At times he was too much size and too much speed for the slow Toronto D. His play on the first goal was a big reason for the confusion and for the goal. He ended up at +2, the night's best.

Lars Eller
Eller was fast tonight and he was rewarded with a goal that sealed the game. In all that is ten goals now - could he hit 20? Kostitsyn and Moen were on tonight too, so once again there were two or three lines that TO had to worry about. When that happens we often do well.

Defencemen

Josh Gorges
The true warrior in this one. When Komisarek looks across the ice he sees the player he could have been. Now, however, he fits the Toronto mould better than most and it is hard to believe that we once thought he was captain material. Josh for his part is and showed that again with his leadership tonight. After Toronto's goal I liked how he discussed what went wrong with PK. No matter who's fault it is Gorges seems interested in making this team better.

Raphael Diaz
He scored the game-winner and showed why he should not be in the press-box, but should be playing. The same can't be said for Campoli who really offers little to this team. Diaz didn't just score tonight, but also chipped in with 4 hits. When he plays like he did tonight he is easily in our top-4.

Goaltender

Carey Price - Game Puck
I was worried after the Leafs scored their goal as Price looked weak. Before and after that, however, he was stellar as he turned away 32 shots. He was our best player tonight, but I did like how the team really limited Tornto's chances throughout. When Price plays like this and the D is strong in front of him it hurts to know just how bad this season has gone.

Comments

Every time we win I regain hope, but logic and reason then kick in (and a quick look at the standings). I still enjoy a win as it is more fun to watch. Of course, a top-5 pick could mean a huge change to the future of this team, but it is hard not to cheer for the win each and every night. So, I have decided to just let be whatever will be.

Tonight the Habs played a decent game, the type of game that suits them. They scored even-strength goals, were good on the PK and played strong as a group. In the end, however, the best part was that we handed the Leafs the loss, in regulation. I would be almost as happy with the Leafs missing the playoffs as the Habs making it in most seasons. So, tonight was a great feeling. Saturday, in Toronto, what could be better than reminding a fellow bad team that they are indeed not that great. It just goes to show that a hot start means little when you face the hard, cold fact that the season is 82 games long.

It would be nice if the Habs kept this up and if they can have a strong couple of weeks we'll see where we are and see what we are hoping for. Until then, enjoy having some days off from the Habs (only one game in the next 10 nights) and enjoy the most boring hockey game on the earth next weekend in Ottawa.

News and Consequences November 28

How does big news actually affect the Habs? This is how we think it does

Big news: Bruce Boudreau and Paul Maurice replaced

Why a Habs fan should care:Habs fans need to recognize what has been lost here today. Bruce Boudreau was a buffoon who frequently took a hard-headed approach to his team. Montreal beat his Caps in the playoffs because he didn't adapt quickly (ever actually) and they would have been able to beat them again, I propose. Maurice was predictable and probably beyond having a real influence on his players.

Dale Hunter has been a great success with the London Knights and has turned out some great players. More importantly, that team has scored and scored. Ovechkin and co. will benefit from the anyone but Boudreau factor, but this may be amped by Hunter. Muller, well we know him, we know he'll be good.

The Habs wouldn't be beating Washington in the regular season, Boudreau or not, but the Canes still in touch may now become a real rival for a lower seed. Together with the playoff match-up implications, this is news that affect the Habs significantly.


Big news: Pacioretty speaking to Shanahan

Why a Habs fan should care: Besides the fact that the team may lose its best straightshooter for a while, the other news is that Habs fans have a chance to show their sincerity.

The hit Pacioretty laid out was against the rules and accidental or not is exactly what the league needs to root out. Jack Todd was quick to point out the need for suspension. I'd second that. Unless players with no history are suspended, suspensions are a powerless mechanism to change the game. Unless semi-accidental hits are punished, players will continue to "accidentally" cause concussions and broken necks. Power to the consequences, forget partisanship. If you really dislike what the Bruins stand for, a Pacioretty suspension is a step in the right direction.


Big news: Toronto winning again

Why a Habs fan should care: Habs fans have revelled for several years in the fact that the Leafs and their fans were experiencing worse troubles than us. Well, after a quick start, Toronto is winning again. And the genius is looking to be proved right by Phil Kessel's scoring lead with Joffrey Lupul!?! sitting in third.

Losing the Toronto schmozzle is jarring. That comfortable thing you could always go back to for a good chuckle. The mockery of the two loud-mouth buffoons who run the team and their brainwashed players could be lost forever if there's a scoring title or heaven forbid a playoff berth.I'm not sure what's to be done.

Game #7More Breakdowns Than On The Side Of The 401

Details

Date: 22/10/2011
Opponent: Maple Leafs
Location: Montreal

Loss: 4-5 (OT)

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Reimer, Gustavsson (W)

Habs goalscorers: Moen (2), Kostitsyn, Cammalleri
Opposition goalscorers: Steckel, Kessel, Phaneuf, Grabovski (2)

Play of the game

I have to hand it to Travis Moen, because of all of the Habs he may be the one that is playing the most above his usual. He covered up another poor play by the team (an opening minutes penalty) with a spectacular effort to get open and score the first goal. On the PK, he an Eller were off. Lars was gone, but could Travis make it a 2-on-1? Yes, he did incredible work to get in front of his man and then did even better once he got the puck. He fought off the D very well and beat Reimer with a perfectly placed backhand shot.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Travis Moen - Game Puck
I didn't think that I would be saying this (and had actually hoped that I wouldn't have to), but Moen was our best player tonight. No offence to Travis, but there are a few players that should be ashamed of themselves because it isn't like Moen is playing like Crosby and that is why he is standing out, no, he is just playing good, solid hockey. Tonight it was 2 goals and a +3 - maybe not my first choice for top-6 winger minutes, but he is certainly earning that time now.

Lars Eller
He played a good game tonight and demonstrated that he is also capable of being a top-2 centre on this team. It may be unclear where he really stands when all are healthy, but if he keeps playing with the energy and passion that he did tonight then I think he'll keep getting his minutes. He had a 2-point night tonight, was very dangerous in the offensive zone and, like his linemate, was +3.

Andrei Kostitsyn
Kostitsyn should feel pretty good about the start that he has had. JM keeps moving people around to try and get others going (and appears to be demoting Kostitsyn each time he does that), but Andrei answers by continuing to be a main part of our best line, night in, night out. He picked up a very nice goal tonight and added an assist on Moen's second (the Gorges shot).

Defencemen

Yannick Weber
Yannick was on for no goals against, was +1 and played 22+ minutes. I didn't notice him much in our end which tonight, was a good thing. He is being used in all situations and is certainly making a case for himself to remain as a defenceman. He has probably been a top-3 D-man for us this year so it will be interesting to see what happens when Spacek, and later Markov, get back.

PK Subban
PK has to be better, he needs to. If he doesn't give us more than he has then this Habs team is a lot worse off than we all thought they would be. Right now he is playing one game as a top-2, one game as a solid depth player and another as a rookie. We, whether it was right to do so or not, have put a lot on this kid and I think our season will depend a lot on his progression. Tonight he was a top-2 for us, but that is mainly due to the mistakes of others and his decent puck control on the PP. There are still 75 games left, lets hope he gets it going, and I mean really going, before it is too late.

Goaltender

Peter Budaj
The one player that we need to be better than PK this year is Price. We were good last year, but it is no stretch to say that if we had this goaltending we would not have made the playoffs at all. He has to find ways to win despite the players in front of him because, for the most part it is the same group that he has won behind before. The team is certainly playing worse, no question, but we can't keep losing games in which we score 4+ goals. Expectations are high on this kid because at this point, he is really all we have going for us.

Comments

Just like the team I play on; too many penalties. It is an embarrassment that we got 2 too-many men on the ice penalties today...what is that? I can't stand that we continue to be one of the most penalized teams in the league despite the fact that we have no real dirty or rough players. I don't know how many times I have said this, but penalties must be JM's main concern. I reckon that if this keeps up he may be in his last 2 weeks in the NHL, so he had better find a way to win games and I strongly believe that taking less penalties is the best way to start. So, in my opinion, he must do whatever it takes to get his players to be scared, scared as hell of taking any sort of penalty. Perhaps always siding with your player and always disaggreeing with the ref after a call isn't the way to get your players to change their ways? Just a thought.

Now, penalties aside, we continue to play poorly in our own end and we play an awful lof of hockey in that 1/3 of the rink. We can't get it out with any sort of consistency and our inability to maintain prolonged attacks means that we simply get overwhelmed in our end. I hate this cliche, but I honestly think that we just have to keep things simple, we have to play the most basic and safest type of defensive hockey. It seems that we are able to score despite all of our problems throughout the line-up, so we must focus on defence, full team defence. That means a lot of work for Price and the D-men, but also a big focus on our defensive zone play from our forwards. Until we win I would actually exclusively work on this aspect of the game during practice.

We're probably a few losses away from major moves, so lets hope (unless we want major moves?), we turn it around fast. If we keep this play up for another month the season could be ruined, if we turn it around in the next few days it will simply look like a blip on our overall record.

Game #1Leafs Can Only Go Down, Habs Only Up...Bring on the Next 81

Details

Date: 6/10/2011
Opponent: Maple Leafs
Location: Boston

Loss: 0-2

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Reimer (W)

Habs goalscorers: None
Opposition goalscorers: Lombardi, Phaneuf

Play of the game

I don't know why on earth we waited till the last two minutes to prove that we indeed have offensive talent, but sure enough it was there for all to see. In the dying moments of the game Montreal overwhelmed Toronto, but they couldn't get one in; another classic case of too little too late. Weber stood out, for me, in those moments as someone who could have (and will) make a difference with that shot of his.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Tomas Plekanec
He was -2 and was not at his best, but still was one of our better ones tonight. I suppose that happens when your coach relies so heavily on you and uses you in all situations. The expectations are high for Tom this year, and even though I know he can handle it, I do think other people have to step up and overshadow him from time to time.

Max Pacioretty
I was just happy to see Max back on the ice. Tonight he played like his old self and, from what I could tell, with no real fear. The chemistry with G + G is certainly there, but their timing needs some serious work. He should be a good player for us this year and I'm excited to see him play the whole time. Let's hope that his linemates can help him become the player that we all hope he can be.

Andrei Kostitsyn
Who had 2 periods? Well, if you did, you won that bet. That was how long Andrei lasted on a top-2 line before his chance was up. He'll be back up there soon, I am sure, but I am not sure that benching, then demoting one of your top forwards after a penalty is the way to go. Early on, when he was playing, I saw a lot of good stuff from Kostitsyn (including a post) and think that he'll bounce back next game. Whether he will have learned his lesson to not be the 1 out of 10 to get called for hooking is another story.

Defencemen

Josh Gorges
It was very good to see Josh back as it was a reminder of just how calm and reliable a defenceman we have in him. He did a good job tonight and could easily be counted on for more than his 19 minutes.

Raphael Diaz
I was pleasantly surprised with Diaz's play tonight. He looked better than Gill (but who doesn't in October?) and did just as well as anyone else out there. I didn't go with PK tonight because I felt that he was, at times, careless and that his -2 rating was not a good way to start the season. Spacek was fine, Weber was fine and Campoli did alright till he got hurt, but I did think Raphael was the one of those that I enjoyed watching the most.

Goaltender

Carey Price - Game Puck
Well, at least one of the squad was ready for the season. Carey was the only player to play to his true form tonight and it was almost enough for us to get a result. With him in nets it won't matter some nights what team is in front of him. If we want him to last till June this year (and in many years to come), however, then I really hope that his teammates start making it a little easier for him.

Comments

The positive: It is a long season and you can't win them all, you are going to lose between 25-40 games. We know we have a good team and we know we are better than Toronto, so what is one game?

The negative: How can we play a game, a real-live, regular season game like that? What is the excuse? Toronto are not a good team and won't be this year, but after watching that I am not 100% sure that we are a good team either. If that is the best this team has to offer we will be in some serious trouble in a few weeks.

Now, for the realistic approach. We were good in the first and totally dominated a poor version on the Maple Leafs. It was a good example of how we didn't capitalize on our chances, though as being the 'better' team means absolutely nothing at the end of the day. After that our special-teams let us down (which includes the taking of 4 penalties) and we never found any rhythm whatsoever. We turned it up in the last few minutes, but goals cannot just be summoned and, thus, it ended up being far too little at that point to matter.

We'll have to wait 5-10 games to see what type of team we really have here, but I will certainly watch a little closer over the next week or so to make sure that tonight's game (I hope) was the anomaly.

The Reshuffle Habs And Rivals After Busy Free Agency Period

In: Erik Cole, Peter Budaj
Out: James Wisnieski, Roman Hamrlik, Benoit Pouliot, Alex Auld

On the surface, this is Cole for Pouliot + cash and Budaj for Auld. Both moves are fine with me, even if I still think Pouliot has a special talent that I wish was a few more divisions away.

On the surface, it also looks like the Habs have created a hole on defence.
Of course they have (Hamrlik and Wisniewski were #1 and #2 at times last season), but the additions don't account for Andrei Markov who was essentially "not there" last year and that of Alexei Emelin.

Markov will easily plug the gap left by the Wizz (who did a bang up job of trying to fill Markov's position in his absence). Hamrlik, however, will be missed. Weber and Emelin are not at Roman's level yet, not even as a committee, so this is a subtraction as it stands.

Overall then, Montreal has taken a small step back so far on the backline, and taken a decent step forward up front. Overall, they look a slightly better team. Compared to themselves.

But once again, it's important not to take this situation in isolation. Just because Montreal adds 8 goals at forward doesn't mean a spot in the standings. That can't be determined without looking at the rivals and how they performed.


The teams ahead of the Habs

Last year, 5 teams beat the Habs by a fair margin in the East. Washington, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Boston and Tampa Bay. All 5 teams were active in the past few weeks and will likely keep tweaking.

The Washington Capitals, winners of the East last season may be the most improved of all. The Caps overpaid to improve their forward depth (Brouwer, Ward), but it is still improved. On top of that, they added Hamrlik and upgraded on Semyon Varlamov by stealing Tomas Vokoun from the rest of the league. Add to this the fact that Washington can claim their own "Gomezes" (players who can't go anywhere but up) with Ovechkin, Green and Backstrom coming off quiet years.

In my opinion, Washington won't be caught or overtaken by the Habs with the moves and rosters as they stand.

In: Brouwer, Joel Ward, Hamrlik, Vokoun, Potulny, Halpern
Out: Varlamov, Boyd Gordon, Andrew Gordon, Sturm, Bradley


Philadelphia made waves early with their shock trades of Carter and Richards, but true to form added the salary right back in the form of Bryzgalov and Jagr.

The biggest difference in Philadelphia should be Bryzgalov, who, while overpaid, is a vast improvement over Leighton and Boucher. It's hard to know how much Philly gave up at the front through Richards, Carter and later Leino; but Voracek, Jagr and co. might lighten the blow at least a bit.

Overall, I still feel schizo Holmgren downgraded his team by going old and young at the same time. But the downgrade isn't to the point where I feel Philly will struggle to make the playoffs.

In: Bryzgalov, Voracek, Simonds, Schenn, Lilja, Talbot, Jagr
Out: Carter, Richards, Powe, Boucher, Leino, Carcillo, O'Donnell


Pittsburgh have been quieter till now. Happy it seems to wait the return of their cavalry. If people in Montreal are excited about having Markov back and Gomez having nowhere to go but up, imagine the Pens fans delight at the thought of adding to last season's plucky team through Crosby and Malkin.

Pittsburgh also quietly switched Talbot and Rupp for Steve Sullivan, who when healthy should find a place beside one of the big two.

It's perhaps not headline stuff, but the returning wounded improve Pittsburgh far beyond anything Montreal could have hoped to do anyway. This team will once again challenge for the top and the Cup barring injuries again.

In: Sullivan, Valabik
Out: Talbot, Rupp


Chiarelli must have had his day with the Stanley Cup on Friday because he did very little indeed. It says he lost Valabik, but he wasn't a big league Bruins. Essentially the balance was Ryder for Pouliot. Payment aside, this is a downgrade. While both have been Montreal playoff benchees, Ryder at least thrives with Julien. Pouliot may or may not.

Boston's minor downgrade may be enough for Montreal to challenge. Remember after all, that Boston only pipped the Habs at the end thanks to a certain few head-to-head encounters where focus was lost.

In: Pouliot
Out: Ryder, Valabik


In his second season, Stevie Y is slower out the gates. He changed his back-up goalie (Garon for Smith) and added some depth D, but lost Bergenheim and Gagne and may have to fight off offers for Stamkos.

Tampa improved by leaps and bounds last season and will still be fueled forward by Stamkos and Hedman, but questions about how much longer Roloson can perform, not to mention how much further Lecavalier will slide, point to some vulnerabilities there for rival Eastern clubs.

I think on balance Tampa will hold their position, at least for another season. It wouldn't be all that surprising if the Habs gained on this outfit, though.

In: Gervais, Garon, Gilroy
Out: Smith, Bergenheim, Gagne, Jones


The teams around the Habs

Montreal posted a 6th place finish last season. 6th place last season, indeed any season, is indication of membership in the competitive pack, the peloton.

The Buffalo Sabres were the 7th place team last spring. They actually matched the Canadiens 96 points and did it thanks to a a flourish at the finish. The Habs beat them on the tie break of 44 wins vs. 43 wins.

All that to say that these two teams are quite close. In fact, they've been leap-frogging each other for a few seasons since the lockout.

So far from being inconsequential, the moves Buffalo made (and makes) will directly affect the Habs. This is quite a pity for the Habs, because like Washington, Buffalo went out and made some pretty substantial and positive moves.

Their defence alone merits their inclusion in any list of winners from this period. While ejecting Steve Montador and Chris Butler, the Sabres added Robyn Regehr and Christian Ehrhoff. This makes for an interesting unit at the back, and an improved one.

On top of that, the Sabres overpaid to add Ville Leino - a feisty and combative forward who would have been considered an answer to the Habs "power forward" need himself. To make space, they let Tim Connolly go, but this shouldn't be too traumatic for the team.

On balance, this makes Buffalo better. Factor in a likely return to league elite numbers for Ryan Miller behind that defence and the Habs should be prepared to look at the Sabres ahead of them in the standings for a while.

In: Regehr, Kotalik, Ehrhoff, Leino
Out: Butler, Montador, Mancari, Connolly


The Rangers were also close to the Habs. In fact, Montreal only beat them on the strength of 3 extra OTLs. Adherents of Corsi and the like will also question NYR's inferiority in light of the +35 goal differential they put up vs. +7 for Montreal.

New York didn't go wild as they have done in the past, but they scored the big goal. After letting Chris Drury go to create space, the Rangers nabbed Brad Richards to play with Marian Gaborik. This is a big improvement for a team whose lack was goal-making. The Rangers improvement is substantial and bigger I feel than a Pouliot upgrade at this point.

In: Richards, Rupp
Out: Drury, Gilroy


Finally, the Carolina Hurricanes. 5 points back of the Habs, the Canes challenged for the playoff spot right to the end.

And here finally there is some good news for the Habs. Though the Canes hung onto their better free agents, they did lose Erik Cole (an important goal-getter for them) and may yet lose others.

Montreal's slight gains get bigger compared to this relative rival who looked to replace Cole cheaply through Ponikarovsky, Brent and Anthony Stewart. Cheap replacements rarely work and these I feel make their forward attack even more hodge podge than it ever has been. Carolina's steps back should give Montreal some breathing space.

In: Tim Brent, Boucher, Ponikarovsky, Stewart
Out: Cole


The New Jersey Devils

The Devils stand in a category alone. The best team in the NHL from late December on can't be pooled with the Leafs and Panthers of this league. They must be considered a serious rival for all the reasons they have been a serious rival to everyone in the East for two decades.

Interesting then that New Jersey's balance ledger is empty. A few pretty insignificant resignings point to the Devils standing pat. The Parise signing is the biggest factor in NJ and it seems like the higher means they'll be able to get that done.

Adding basically the best all around LW in the game to any team would be scary. To add him to the team that surged so strongly at the end of 2010-11 is a bit scary.

I'd think Montreal needs to think of NJ as a serious playoff rival this year, just another team added to the peloton for those last few spots.

In:
Out:


The stragglers

The 5 remaining teams in the East should be just that come April - the 5 remaining teams in the East. Some have tried hard to make steps (Florida) and some have stood virtually still (Ottawa, NYI). I'm sure the Leafs Nation will implore us to consider them a new rival, but it's hard to see how adding two injured/injury prone centres really answers the glaring deficiency they had, even if Cody Franson is a very handsome pick up. Tobalev also pointed out that the Monster/Reimer proposition should be an interesting one.


On balance

Keeping in mind that there's still many summer days ahead to change rosters, the Habs look like they should be holding some playoff ground in the East.

The Gauthier moves (and non-moves, I suppose) put the team in a slightly better position than the one they finished in.

By my count, two teams ahead of them distanced themselves further (Washington, Pittsburgh and the three others ahead probably did little enough damage to stay ahead. IN the pack that should occupy 6-10 in the East, Montreal looks competitive. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buffalo or NYR overtake, but Carolina should slip behind the Habs, and NJ likely won't overtake the Habs without seriously damaging the record of Philly or NYR.

I still believe that Pierre must do more from now till autumn's onset. Beyond replacing Halpern, which will happen as it always does, Gauthier should probably seek to supplement his backline and even add another forward that can score. There are plenty of attractive targets left in the UFA pool (Babchuk, Frolov, Miettinen, Stillman) and teams like NJ might need to trade yet.

I'm pleased , however, that Gauthier has put himself in a decent position four days into free agency. With money yet to spend, he is in touch and could credibly overtake some rivals here. This in itself is a positive thing, as mad signings (Randy McKay) might often have the opposite effect.

Game #82Habs Play Tight Game; Let The Real Season Begin!

Details

Date: 9/4/2011
Opponent: Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto

Win: 4-1

Habs Goalie: Price (W)
Opposition Goalie: Reimer (L)

Habs goalscorers: White, Gionta (2), Plekanec
Opposition goalscorers: Kessel

Play of the game

Price made an incredible save on a goal that wasn't, but could have been. The refs went upstairs on a puck that may well have crossed the line. The official call, however, was that it stayed out and that was because of the work that Carey did. He somehow got his hand on the puck which was rolling on the line and managed to take his hand out of the net as the rest of his body found its way in. It was a truly acrobatic play and one of Price's best saves of the season.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Ryan White
Who knows what role Ryan will play in the playoffs, but he showed his coach that he was ready if needed. He scored an early goal and then went on to get in a fight and make 4 hits (led the game) and did it all with the least amount of ice-time of any player on either team.

Michael Cammalleri
Mike didn't score tonight, but certainly got enough chances to show that he is ready to go. In fact, I think that he got the most quality chances of any Hab other than Gionta. It should be interesting to see if he can elevate his game to the same level that he did last year.

Brian Gionta - Game Puck
Two goals for Brian tonight and I guess the biggest shock was that he didn't have more. That gives him 29 goals on the year which is not only what we expect from the captain, but also what we need. Pleks, Camms and Andrei can all score, but Gionta shouldn't be forgotten as one of, if not the, most potent threat on the team. It was a good first year as captain for Brian, next up is his first playoffs.

Defencemen

PK Subban
PK's ready, don't you think? He is the type of player that lives for big games and I am sure that he can't wait for next week. He played the most of any Hab tonight and his 7 shots led the team by 3. I am positive that he'll be back with Gill, so the question is whether Spacek is in and is so, who is out?

James Wisniewski
I liked the Wiz's play tonight. It was a nice reminder of the type of player that we have on our hands as I think it is a treat to have such a high-quality replacement. I am not sure how many games he has left in a Habs uniform, but 16 wins would sure be nice.

Goaltender

Carey Price
Carey played a good game and made a few great saves. His season wraps up with pretty impressive numbers, the type of numbers that we haven't seen for years. It wasn't all good, however, as his puck-handling almost cost him and the goal was a bit weak. Luckily he has learned to shrug off mistakes, so weak goals don't seem to phase him. If he can keep mistakes down though, then this could be another enjoyable run as I don't see many cracks in him at all.

Comments

Well, that's that, 82 games up, 82 games down. It was a nice way to end the year in that we got a win, Toronto got a loss and we avoided any major knocks. All in all it was a good season, 96 points is a good result. I wouldn't say that we are miles behind the top teams and considering that we are relatively healthy (forget the big 3 injuries) we have a certain amount of depth that I am happy about. It will be a potentially dirty series with Boston, but if we can score and score early on them then they will change their style. When that happens they start trying to score and forget the rough and dirty stuff; that is generally when we can better them. Price is the key, but with players like Subban, Wiz, Gill, Gio, Pleks, Kostitsyn and Cammalleri I feel that we have enough options. It will be good to get a few days rest this week, because we all know how tiring another 2 months of hockey watching can be!

Games With Meaning

Once again you and I sit here as winter turns to spring looking ahead to a host of meaningful Canadiens games. Tonight is the first. The Buffalo Sabres are grappling for the playoffs (if you can call 6-6-4 over 14 grappling) and the Habs need more points to achieve any peace of mind.

But it’s not so for everyone.

Down the road in Ottawa, for example, games with meaning expired in January. That’s when they entered the puzzling realm where fans start to accept and even encourage the loss. I recently attended an Ottawa game and will be attending the Habs game in Kanata as well. Watching the post-trade deadline Senators face the Bruins was interesting from an academic point of view, but I can assure you that not many of those fans seem to revel in the clean back pass like I do. By the time the Habs play the Sens in April, it may be that the result means less to both teams. It begs the question: why are people paying the same amount to watch this game as the early season run-ins with everything still on the line.

The teams at the bottom struggle to bring in fans (especially where fans were already scarce) as cheering for the loss is just as easily done without the $100 price tag. Maybe this wouldn’t be so bad if the teams at the top weren’t also playing meaningless games as the season runs down.

Vancouver and Philadelphia are the only two teams that have formally clinched their playoff berths. But there are also several teams that have a 100% chance of making the playoffs if you round up the decimals (Washington has escaped all scenarios in which they could miss thanks to head-to-head games of those chasing).


Few games with meaning

So ten teams with less than 1% chance of making it and 9 teams with a less than 1% chance of missing. With playoffs being the only pressing reason to win a game that suggests that most teams don’t have very much left to play for.

In my opinion, this part of the season is just another thing that is fundamentally wrong with the NHL. I think there’s a problem at the top and at the bottom of the pile.


League champions

To start with, the league’s attitude to the President’s trophy only fuels the fans disdain. 82 games is a long and arduous season for players and fans when the single reward for most teams is berth in the playoffs. Add to that the possibility that a first round loss will completely eclipse any notion of accomplishment. Imagine a first round sweep.

There aren’t many good reasons as to why the league couldn’t do more to elevate the league champion. I am not suggesting that anything like the right to play for the Cup be reinstated as it was in the beginning. There could, however, be ways to honour the winners. Presenting the trophy could be a start. Other possibilities could include making the champs participants in the outdoor game, or the all-star game (and making a trophy for the victors of that as yet meaningless contest). Some sort of hockey champion’s league to start the season (as opposed to random selection for European involvement) might also create interest in hockey that way.

A fan of North American sports will point out that not recognizing accomplishment for the regular season is the norm for all sports. Of course, in doing so, said fan would have to ignore the reality that sport takes place outside of North America too and those leagues routinely find ways to honour two achievements and make them meaningful to fans. They would also be condoning the 162-game debacle that leads to months of meaningless baseball games every year.

Why must we cling to a system that was made for 6 teams, when we can clearly see the problem that a single honour to go around for 30 teams is creating disinterest? Why must the NHL copy the NFL when the difference between 16 games and 82 games is so clear?


Lottery winners

The same could be said for the bottom. As I was discussing the Senators last night with my father-in-law, I needed to explain why the teams missing the playoffs must now attempt to lose as many games as possible. We both agreed this gave fans a very good reason for their apathy.

Of course, this doesn’t need to be the way forward either.

The top pick to bottom team system is in place to allow recycling of teams from top to bottom. It works in that regard. But in 10 years when Crosby and Malkin are on their last legs, will we again be staring down the threat of one of the NHL’s most legitimate markets losing its team? The more Pittsburgh try to win now, the more likely it seems we will.

And what for? So that teams from far less viable markets can take a turn at the top?

The solution might need to be creative, but there could certainly be a way to make missing the playoffs on a tie-break (like Florida has done a couple of times recently) worth more than trading away all NHL talent in March like that team did this year. It’s not every day that the Toronto Maple Leafs stumble on viable solutions to problems, but they may be onto something with their first round swap – winning to prevent a rival’s reinforcement seems to entertain.



At the end of the day, fans cheer for the goal, the save, the win. Not many are so forward-looking to be cheering for the increased odds of nabbing Couturier. Certainly not when they’ve paid to watch a hockey game. As a fan willing to pay for a late season game this year, but beginning to question, I can speak to this.

Want to know why hockey is sucking air in Florida and Atlanta. Want to know why Colorado failed before and could just as easily lose interest again? Want to know why Columbus is no longer selling out? Look no further than meaningful games. In addition to showing some iota of concern for player safety, I think this sham leadership has to address this situation where meaningless games make up 15% of the schedule.

So as Toronto face Minnesota to decide Boston’s draft position, enjoy the game tonight.

(Note: Of course I never expect a league run by the current team – who can’t even muster enough interest to deal with serious injury – to do anything. It’s still something I think needs to be addressed by the next competent guy they get in a leadership position)

Playoff Check Up

Lots of people around this time of year like to do an inventory of the games that are left and cal it a playoff check up. The logic being that few games mean we can start to predict what will happen just by looking at the schedule.

This may seem true, but there are actually millions of possible scenarios, even at this point for all the possible outcomes. That's what happens with so many teams and 4 possible outcomes from each game.

That's why, I prefer to let a computer do the thinking for me. Thankfully there is a computer that does just this. Sports Club Stats is a website that has posted the odds of NHL teams making the playoffs for the past few years, it also predicts the likely placement of teams.

Looking at this site, it becomes possible to see the relatively watertight position of teams that are in the playoff positions at this point and the hopes ever so faint of teams like the Maple Leafs that are trying to claw their way in.

The Leafs lost last night and it cost them valuable points. No big deal? Well not if you were thinking in terms of one simple scenario you thought needed to happen. But in reality, the Leafs just lost more than half of the possible scenarios where they could make the playoffs with that single loss. Because they have to catch teams (one which they lost to) and depend on losses from those rivals and leapfrog teams that could equally win (and will need to win if the Leafs hope the playoff teams are to lose), the chances slim down.

This is more complex because of the way the NHL schedules. By making things more interdivisional and intercoferencial at the very end of the season, the league ensures the most scenarios right to the end of the schedule. The Leafs are by no means out. But the thousands of scenarios where they make the playoffs all depend a lot on others.

The Canadiens are in a very different position. 97 points will guarantee a playoff position at this point. 97 points represents 14 points from 13 games, which is very much in keeping with their record.

96 points is a virtual lock as well. If the Canadiens get a record of 6-6-1 for the rest of the season, there are thousands and thousands of scenarios where they will end up in the playoffs in either 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th or 8th. There are 5,151,915 scenarios whereby they will end up 6th. And there is a single scenario where they could miss the playoffs. Even a 5-5-3 record only yields a single possibility where the rivals all win the right games and slip ahead.

Even if the Canadiens have an abysmal record like 4-9-0, because of the games that are left to play for every team, it is still more likely that they will make it with their 91 points than not.

Looking at things this way is a bit cold, and wouldn't be my tip for Leafs fans who probably don't want to extinguish the flames of hope just yet. But for Habs fans who might just want to cool off their nervous twitches in the month of March, some cold hard stats can be calming.

Canadiens Rival Report Relative Gains And Losses After A Season Of Trades

Montreal didn't do much yesterday or the weeks before. But that doesn't mean Pierre Gauthier's team hasn't been shifting up and down in the relative arms race in the Eastern Conference. Trades all around them means that the Canadiens have lost ground and gained ground on several teams.

I look at the moves of rivals here.

First off, I don't consider Philadelphia a rival for now. They are miles clear in the standings are healthy and virtually guaranteed a playoff spot. The fact that they have eliminated the Habs two of the past 3 years in the playoffs and look to be just as daunting all season puts them a cut above in my mind. Someone else please eliminate in Round 1.

The New York Islanders are not and never really were rivals with the Habs. They are rebuilding (have been since the 1980s). Good luck to them.

The rest of the East are rivals, or were rivals at some point this season for the 7 other playoff positions. Between trades, waiver wire pickups and losses and injuries, the position of the Habs relative to each team has been in flux. With the possibility of big moves ended yesterday (not big injuries), the dust settles and we can see where the Habs stand against their rivals:


Tampa Bay Lightning (1-0-1 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Roloson, Brewer
Significant losses: None
Significant injuries: None
Drafting outlook: Unchanged

Tampa spent a bit of their future on the current season. They traded a pretty good prospect to correct their off-season goaltending choices and another to add Eric Brewer. Neither Roloson, nor Brewer seem that brilliant as additions. But the fact that Tampa made slight improvements without sacrificing from the current team means their outlook should be the same if not a bit brighter.

Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Gains


Boston Bruins (1-2-1 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Kaberle, Peverley, Valabk, Kelly
Significant losses: Wheeler, Stuart, Sturm
Significant injuries: Savard
Drafting outlook: Lots of high picks sacrificed

On the surface, it looked like Boston made the right moves. They did make a lot of them. But considering Peverley and Kelly don't come close to replacing Savard and Sturm, a lot hangs on Kaberle. I like Kaberle, but his impact remains to be seen. Boston were a better looking team than Montreal this year, primarily because Lucic and Thomas turned a big corner. I think that still stands to be the difference. The mortgage of the future for these players brought on illustrates exactly what I didn't want Gauthier to do. If Boston don't make a great run this year, they will have sacrificed a potential powerhouse in 5 years for nothing.

Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Slight gains


Pittsburgh Penguins (1-1-1 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Neal, Niskanen, Kovalev
Significant losses: Goligoski
Significant injuries: Malkin, Crosby, Orpik
Drafting outlook: Unchanged

Ray Shero restrained himself from making a big mess. I think he, like the rest of us, realises that whether Crosby is to come back has more impact on his team than 50 trades. Kovalev for nothing was clever with Malkin's cap space offering flex. The Neal trade brings a future piece, which was also smart. The outlook for this season hinges on injuries. But the outlook for the franchise will be bright if rehab comes through.

Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Losses


Washington Capitals (1-0-1 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Arnott, Wideman, Hannan, Sturm
Significant losses: Steckl, Fleischmann
Significant injuries: Green
Drafting outlook: A few picks sacrificed

Washington must recognise a Malkin and Crosby injury scenario offers an open door. With healthy stars for now (perhaps not so for Green), Washington paid to take a run. It's an overall improvement at a relatively low cost. Will it be enough? I think Ovechkin needs a turnaround to prove that it will be.

Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Gains


New York Rangers (0-3-0 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Wolski, McCabe
Significant losses: Roszival
Significant injuries: Frolov, Drury, Gaborik, Biron
Drafting outlook: Slight drop

New York is an important rival of the Habs, so the fact they didn't land the player that they wanted to pay with futures for was good for the Canadiens of this season. Injuries are the critical issue in New York, though, and some key scoring forwards out means D and Lundqvist have a lot to do. The McCabe trade is a stretch (better than Redden?) and the Wolski trade looked good on paper, but less so on the ice.

Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Losses


Carolina Hurricanes (0-3-0 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Stillman, Allen
Significant losses: Samsonov
Significant injuries: None
Drafting outlook: Gained a pick

Rutherford danced around a bit and ended up with a seller's draft pick as well as Cory Stillman. Stillman over Samsonov is a big improvement and should improve the Canes. I don't think Allen is as good as the talking heads pump him up to be, but he probably can't be worse than Ian White.

Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Slight gains


Buffalo Sabres (2-3-0 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Boyes
Significant losses: Rivet
Significant injuries: Roy
Drafting outlook: One pick out

Derek Roy has been a big loss to swallow, but the addition of Boyes should really help with that. Buffalo made few moves relative to their rivals in Toronto, but did more to actually progress.

Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Slight gains


Toronto Maple Leafs (3-2-0 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Lupul
Significant losses: Kaberle, Versteeg, Beauchemin
Significant injuries: None
Drafting outlook: Greatly improved

Toronto's recent winning streak, on the back of a Kessel scoring blip (trust me, I have him in my pool) is the mirage that obscures the fact Burke sold up for picks. Toronto can go for the playoffs all they want, because their pick is in Boston, and Boston's is in Toronto, but even if they make it, it would be hard to say they were a better team than they were before the trades. The real bad news for Montreal in this case was that Burke didn't decide to turn in those picks for a run. But hey, it's probably better to have high picks with a team that can't draft than with one that can.

Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Lost ground


Atlanta Thrashers (2-0-0 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Wheeler, Stuart, Dvorak, Schremp
Significant losses: Peverley, Valabik, Sopel, Modin, Bergfors, Rissmiller
Significant injuries: Burmistrov
Drafting outlook: Unchanged

Atlanta are a desperate team. Given their fall from what was an inflated position, they should have sold up. It was a half-hearted sale that means their future will likely put them behind the teams that committed to the future now. It's more of the same from the Thrashers as they fight for fans with the dream of 4 playoff losses.

Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Lost ground


Florida Panthers (1-1-1 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Samsonov, Sulzer, Skille
Significant losses: Allen, Wideman, McCabe, Higgins, Stillman, Frolik
Significant injuries: None
Drafting outlook: Greatly improved

8 points out of the playoffs. Who knows how many years without. It took guts (or insanity) to blow this apart. Tallon did that. The result is a shell of an NHL team, but a lot more draft picks. The puzzle in all this is trading Frolik and Salak who could be parts of a bright future. The Canadiens couldn't have asked for draft picks to land in less capable hands.

Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: No longer a rival


New Jersey devils (2-1-0 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Steckl
Significant losses: Arnott, Langenbrunner
Significant injuries: Parise
Drafting outlook: Slight improvement

New Jersey hasn't given up. And why should they? Their core is built to compete now and if they can make the playoffs from that far back, you'd have to count them as a serious contender. New Jersey has never required high draft picks to build before, so it seems they don't care about those now, instead relying on their above average scouting. Arnott and Langenbrunner out reflect the bad season they were both having. NJ taking a player means they won't lose much ground.

Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: Slight losses


Ottawa Senators (1-4-0 vs. Habs)Significant additions: Anderson
Significant losses: Elliott, Kovalev, Ruutu, Kelly, Campoli, Fisher
Significant injuries: Alfredsson, Gonchar
Drafting outlook: Improved

Considering the fanbases total acceptance of trades, Murray made little of this. Essentially nothing for Kovalev and Ruutu is not good trading. What's more, the valuable trade chips were held, and for what? Chris Phillips could have fetched something. Spezza even more. Sentimentality in Ottawa has botched a rebuild opportunity. The scouts that found them Hossa, Alfredsson, Havlat and co. aren't there anymore, so this should be interesting.

Relative movement vs. Montreal Canadiens: No longer a rival


Montreal's relative shift

From what I see, the Habs have lost some ground to 5 teams in all and gained some ground on 7 teams.

The good news for Habs fans is that many of the teams behind the Canadiens in the standings look to have packed it in a bit for this season. Toronto is pushing in games, but that belies their loss of quality. The only playoff outsiders that seem to be making a decent stand are the Buffalo Sabes, who I now think might make the post-season.

The bad news is that the teams ahead of them have made more serious pushes than the Canadiens to make serious runs in the playoffs. Philadelphia was already the class, and still are. Boston, Washington and Tampa Bay's GMs were more serious than Gauthier about this year vs. future years. Pittsburgh made interesting moves, but just aren't the team the standings say they are without Malkin and Crosby. They seem to realise that and didn't go wild.

The Habs currently stand 6th and look pretty good to finish about there. With a bit of luck, they'll compete well in the playoffs.
I will note that the Washington capitals must be watched from here. Last season they cruised to the playoffs, and the same team hasn't exactly struggled to remain in the top 5 this season. Arnott and Sturm are good late additions for them. Strangely losing Green for Wideman may also help.

Game #62Habs Play Well, Leafs Refs Play Better

Details

Date: 24/2/2011
Opponent: Maple Leafs
Location: Montreal

Loss: 4-5

Habs Goalie: Auld, Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Reimer (W)

Habs goalscorers: Halpern, Cammalleri, Wisniewski, Pacioretty
Opposition goalscorers: Kessel (2), Lebda, Bozak (2)

Play of the game

Cammalleri's goal was a beaut, and boy did we need a goal from Mike. It started when PK made a great play to gain the zone and then attack it. Most players would have given up on the play, but Subban kept it going. He couldn't get to the goal, but just before rounding it left the puck for Kostitsyn. Andrei then made a great pass to Mike who was able to place a perfect shot by Reimer.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Jeff Halpern - Game Puck
I haven't seen Jeff play this well since early in the season. I wonder if the trade deadline makes a journeyman veteran pick it up a bit? Proving he wants to stay? Proving why another team wants him? Nah, I don't really think it was that, but he did play a fantastic game. Towards the end he seemed to be very active around the Leaf goal and I wasn't surprised that he was in on Pacioretty's marker.

Tomas Plekanec
Pleks is certainly picking it up of late. Tonight was another great example of how good of a player he is as he, at times, dominated in both ends. He was on the ice for three of our goals, but did so much more than that. His best stuff was his one-on-ones that he seemed to be winning with fairly good regularity. Making Komisarek look like a fool, even though it isn't that hard, is always welcome with me.

Max Pacioretty
If there is one thing that has been bothering me of late with Max it is that he always tries to go inside then outside on every defender he faces. It isn't working for him and, unfortunately, often ends in a turn-over. That, however, isn't enough to deter me tonight. In fact, I do quite like that he at least is getting the puck and trying stuff with it. What I did like was that he wanted to be at the net all game long and he wanted to take shots, as many as he could. In all he took 9 and it, therefore, isn't surprising that one finally went in.

Defencemen

James Wisniewski
James probably wants to make sure that he is still with this team in a week and what better way to do that than score your first of 2011. He did very well on the PP and laid some nice hits too. It will be interesting to see what our D will be next week (it looks like Spacek it out long-term), but I am hoping that James is a part of it because he adds an element that when we don't have it, we all complain that we need it; so much so some even wanted MAB back.

Roman Hamrlik
This was another fantastic game from Roman. He played 28+ minutes which may seem like too much, but for all the assumptions about him getting tired, he isn't really showing it. He has had some down times over the season, but, for the most part, has been very reliable in every aspect of play. Like the Wis, I hope that Hammer is part of this team next week and I think that he is making a very good case to be on it next year too.

Goaltender

Carey Price
Not too much to choose tonight. Both goalies played and Price played better. Auld got unlucky, but so did Price. I would like to say that had Price started we would have won, but that is taking the blame off the refs and putting it on Auld. Tonight I really don't think that either goalie was a major deciding factor.

Comments

4 refs to supervise 12 players. 4! How on earth they can get the majority of calls wrong, I'll never know. The refs in this league are horrible, we all know that, but tonight they went beyond their usual farce, they were putrid. This game would have been so different had Gionta not been called for lifting a stick and having a Leaf player catch an edge. For starters we should have been given a PP on that very play and, the real kicker, Gionta could have scored as he had a 2-0n-1 going when that call was made. Two quick PP goals by Toronto gave them a lead that they really had no business taking. We played better than the Leafs tonight and deserved a better result. I felt that we played some of our most intense, chance-ridden hockey late in the third period; a type of hockey that would overwhelm any team. It is upsetting that we didn't come out of this with a point and I can only hope that the coaches saw the same thing that I did and side with the players, and not against them, in this case. Carolina is never easy for us, but with them so close behind us I feel that we really need a regulation win, no if, and or refs about it.