Showing posts with label Sopel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sopel. Show all posts

Monday, August 15, 2011

Woy not?

New Habs D Is Low Risk Proposition

If it seemed the Canadiens weren't keen on resigning Alexandre Picard, they confirmed that today by signing journeyman defenceman Jeff Woywitka to a one-year two-way deal. As per club policy, we will have to wait until capgeek tells us the contract value later today to find out.

This signing looks good, OK, on most fronts.

Woywitka played in the NHL last season for a start. He was a plus player on a team that wasn't terrible defensively. He averaged a lot of ice and didn't make too much of a mess by letting up way more chances than he was on for.

In other words he did an adequate job for an adequate team.

He may no longer be the prized trade chip that he once was, or the prospect he looked when he came out of junior an all-star. But he has made his place in the league it seems -- or half a place.

The two-way contract is probably the key consideration of this contract. I would imagine that at this point of the summer Gauthier has had the chance to speak with a few free agent defencemen who might have filled an 8th man in role. Sopel probably, Picard maybe. Gauthier probably had the two-way contract as the stipulation, and in Woywitka it seems he found a taker.

From the team's perspective this provides the flexibility to go with the youngsters they're hoping will come through, but the insurance of an NHL body on the AHL team. It's a good insurance policy and one that could be quite fruitful if the relationship is productive at the AHL or NHL level.

I don't know that much about Woywitka's play, and given his days of player profiles are long behind him, I thought I'd share with you something I came across from another blog that was making the case to sign him earlier in the summer.

Friday, August 05, 2011

Habs Scoring Chance Breakdown

We now all know what a scoring chance is. We now all understand its potential and are ready to play with stats.

Scoring chances should help us look into the games of Michael Cammalleri, Scott Gomez, Andrei Kostitsyn and others in a new way, to get beyond the very helpful but very limited Corsi and to add some new paint to the picture.


Scoring chance analyses

One of the great things about the way the scoring chance trackers do their work is that they build in a timestamp.

Because of this very crucial early decision (and the commitment from trackers to publishing when every scoring chance happened) we have the opportunity to cross reference the whole thing with the NHL time-stamped version of events. From there, we can see not only which shots were scoring chances, but also which scoring chances missed the net or were scored as non-shots by the league.

The composite of the two records is quite exciting because it offers the chance to run calculations that describe the shooting, positioning and offensive decision-making of the players.

I have a nearly full record of the whole 2010-11 season done in this way, but after the very informative Q&A with Olivier of En Attendant les Nordiques, I realised that I needed to go back to the drawing board on some of my analyses. So for now, I give you the analysis if scoring chances in the 2011 playoffs.


Starting from the beginning: the conventional playoff shooting stats.

As you can see below, some players took a lot of shots. Gionta led the team in total shots and shots per 60 minutes, Pouliot was completely AWOL. From these simple numbers, we can also run the simple Scott Cullen 'Josh Gorges' analysis and see that Spacek and Hamrlik could use some time on the practice green.



Moving on, we can look at Olivier's scored chances for the series by player. Gionta still led the team in scoring chances per ice time, but note the fallers. David Desharnais who came out looking like a star on NHL stats, suddenly doesn't look so good. Why? Because 75% of his shots were from outside Olivier's home base.

When people fall, others rise. Kostitsyn and Pyatt jump up because their shots tended to be from within the homebase (and by consensus definition more dangerous) -- though we're having trouble remembering a dangerous Pyat shot just now...



OK, so we knew all that. Or we could have known it if we looked. But the crossrefencing comes in now. Below you will see a column called "Target". Target means a scoring chance (from Olivier's record) that corresponded to a shot (on the NHL's record) -- a shot from within the homeplate area.

This is where it gets interesting, because we can start to see not only who waits to take shots from within the homeplate, but also who can make sure an attempt from there (where coverage is tightest) is on net. The skills of patience, timing, positioning and finally accuracy combined.

Here we see the cream (and Weber) rising to the top. Forwards are now on average better than Dmen and the forwards we thought of as threats at the time show up as the biggest threats in the record. Of greatest note here (apart from Weber who had some very nice shots) is Scott Gomez (half the number of on target attempts per game vs. the elite forwards). Pouliot really did his contract dreams no favours, did he?



So what we'd really like to know is how dangerous were the shots of each player on the team? That way before we go headlong down the Corsi results road we can see if perhaps we'd rather some of those Corsi-helping attempts had been held back in favour of a pass or a dump in.

That's what we can see below. Here are the on-target shots form the homeplate area as percentages of total shots and attempts. Weber again is top, and Andrei Kostitsyn creeps in with some scary accuracy. Scott Gomez, once again, is shown to be a very cheap shot.

If I'm defending this what I see is one player (Kostitsyn), who I'd better stick to like glue and another (Gomez) who I should probably actively open shooting lanes for from the outside boards.



Of course, we could counter by saying that Kostitsyn holds it too much and Gomez is just playing the odds. But is this more than three-fold difference really just a regression to mean waiting to happen? We all watched the games. I don't remember it that way.


Team metrics

Nowadays people who go on too long about individual stats like I just did are eaten by the wolves of Corsi. A player's value you see, can't be shown merely by looking at individual stats alone. i rather agree. And luckily for me, the script that scoring chance trackers use also shoots out all the players that were on the ice at the time the chance occurred.

So now we can see which players were on the ice for the most scoring chances by the team.



This is where things get interesting isn't it?

Scott Gomez, who clearly has no control over or confidence in his own shot is now squarely in the top 5 on the list -- ahead of his linemate Gionta! We aren't at all surprised by those ahead of him (stars of the playoff series that they were), but are a little dismayed that David Desharnais seemed to be a chance sink.


Goals scored

Finally, a look at who converts. So you've won yourself a shot in the slot, Tom Pyatt, what are you going to do with it?



Beyond anomalies Weber and Sopel (and I hesitate to say Subban), we can see that the guys who convert their chances as often as they should (more than 20%) are Cammalleri, Kostitsyn and Gionta. Sopel, who barely played spun some magic as well, because when he was on the ice, the team shot over 20%.


Players of note

So what does all this tell us about the players we wanted to know about?

Brian Gionta: The boy believes in the power of odds, shooting frequently. Fortunately for him, his shot is of above average accuracy

Tomas Plekanec: Mr. Steady. He's up there in most offensive categories. he shoots a lot, but also clearly knows how to make it count.

Mike Cammalleri: Potentiator. Sure his individual record is good, and he scores the goals, but he also is on the ice for the most chances by his teammates. Who said he couldn't pass?

Andrei Kostitsyn: Good positioning, good shot, maybe too patient/picky. Probably a good thing he wasn't let go.

Scott Gomez: Should wait until the teammate becomes free, there seems to be some redeeming bit of magic when he can do that. Anything is better than watching his shot.

Benoit Pouliot: Played himself off the team in perplexing fashion.

David Desharnais/Lars Eller: Our third line might be in trouble once checking gets tight.

PK Subban: What a playoffs.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Game #1-4

When You Miss That Many Chances, What Do You Expect?

Details



Date: 21/4/2011
Opponent: Bruins
Location: Montreal

Loss: 4-5 (OT)

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Thomas (W)

Habs goalscorers: Sopel, Cammalleri, Kostitsyn, Subban
Opposition goalscorers: Ryder (2), Ference, Bergeron, Kelly



Play of the game


Price made an incredible save on Boychuk in the third. He was sprawled out, at at the Bruins' mercy, all they had to do was shelf the puck, but Carey out-waited him and snagged what could have been a very deflating goal. In turns out that they did tie it up and they, of course, did win it, but at the time this was crucial and, all in all, it was our nicest play on the night.



Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Andrei Kostitsyn
Andrei was our second best forward all night long. He competed for the puck, took a lot of shots and had a lot of chances. I didn't see one bad play and saw a lot of good out there. I am, therefore, amazed that 5 other forwards played more than him, including Travis Moen who, I think, is lucky to even be playing at all right now. Kostitsyn needs to see more ice as he is becoming a key to this series. Oh ya, he scored a fantastic goal.

Michael Cammalleri
- Game Puck
Mike had 3 points and scored a goal, but wasn't the main contributor on any of those goals. That shows how one can get points, but not necessarily be playing their best. In his case, however, he did have a decent game beyond the points and, quite frankly, no one else stepped it up any more; although the other forwards in the dome came very close.

David Desharnais
The rookie had a great game tonight, one of his best, and was the main reason that we scored our first goal. He played well enough tonight to warrant a little more than 11 minutes. In fact, if we aren't going to get off our high-horse (Martin) and give Pouliot a chance it may be time to put Desh on the wing beside Gomez and give him 5-8 more minutes per game. A re-think of how to group forwards #6-12 wouldn't go amiss as I think we are being beat in that regard. No problems with the top 5.

Defencemen

PK Subban
This is bittersweet as I didn't think that PK had one of his better games. The main reason that he is in here is that I didn't really like what I saw from Sopel, Spacek, Wiz or Hammer. At least PK scored the go-ahead goal and wasn't on the ice for any goals against. I didn't, however, like his poor line-change in OT (Moen is more to blame, however) and how he was trying way too hard to be the hero on the late PP rather than trying to distribute the puck.

Hal Gill
20 minutes, +1 and not on the ice for any Bruin goals are good stats to sport. I also felt that he played a strong game and didn't make too many mistakes. If I could change one thing, however, it would be that he would take low, hard shots on net instead of going for the weak-wristers every single time.

Goaltender

Alex Auld
Price wasn't the reason that we lost and is the main reason that we have 2 wins in this series, but after 5 goals on 35 shots I would have to try to shake things up. We blew 1-0, 3-1, 4-3 leads and the whole team must have a look at themselves. I am sure that he will rebound and I hope that it only gets better from here. My one other hope is that the Bruins don't start going glove-side all of the time because I think that may still be an area of relative weakness for him.


Comments


We started well, but you knew that Boston wouldn't just lie down. So, more of those early chances had to go in. That is where we miss a guy like Pacioretty as I am sure he would be able to score about half of Moen's great chances. Beyond the offence, though, how about our D? Our solid, shut-down style was not on display tonight, no, instead we looked confused and made too many mistakes. It wasn't just our defencemen either, it was our whole team defence. We did play a decent game, when you look at it on a whole, and it is nice to be tied at 2 after 4, but if you break it down little, by little one would expect more of a team that was up 2-0 in games and 3-1 in goals tonight. As upsetting and disappointing as it is, however, we must forget it and start anew in Boston. What has happened has happened and it is important to focus on winning the next game, the new all-important game. We can look at whys and hows and who to blames, heck, we can even ask why Chara is allowed to fully obstruct in OT (I guess the refs have no problem with cheating affecting the outcome, so long as it is not them), but at the end of the day that won't get us anywhere. It is a frustrating game, with frustrating opponents and officials, but we all love the Habs enough to look beyond that and do what it takes to take game #5. Good luck everyone.

Tuesday, March 01, 2011

Game #64

Not Pretty, But Habs Get Their Points

Details



Date: 1/3/2011
Opponent: Thrashers
Location: Atlanta

Win: 3-1

Habs Goalie: Price (W)
Opposition Goalie: Mason (L)

Habs goalscorers: Pacioretty, Wisniewski, Gionta
Opposition goalscorers: Antropov



Play of the game


Price played fantastic and kept us in this game throughout, but I couldn't think of one single stop by him that won this one for us. So, I have to go with the empty-netter, the goal that essentially gave us 2 points and them none. Gomez made a great play to knock the puck out of the zone and into Gionta's path. The captain then showed great speed and determination to get to the puck before Bogosian. A quick chip at it looked easy enough and gave the Habs their third.



Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Max Pacioretty
Max was the quickest Hab out there tonight and exposed the Thrashers D on a few separate occasions. He scored his twelfth of the season on a shot that wasn't his best chance of the game, but that seemed to have eyes. He should bag 15 this year and it should be interesting to see how close to 20 he'll get.

Brian Gionta
Brian played the most of any forward tonight and I felt that he deserved his ice-time. It was a bit of an off-game for Pleks and his crew, so it was nice to see Gio's line answer the call. That goal was his 23rd and he may very well hit 30 this year which would be quite something considering the start that he had.

David Desharnais
I am happy that David stood out tonight. The fourth line is kind of getting left behind, but it seems that if you play well you will be rewarded; case and point was his PP ice-time. Martin put Pleks at the point on the first wave and that freed up the centre spot for David. He made his presence felt by notching a crucial assist on the Wis' goal. He was also very strong at face-offs, going 11-2.

Defencemen

Hal Gill
Very strong on the PK and stayed out of trouble all game in his own end. He is playing very soundly right now and seems to be the perfect fit for our boy PK.

James Wisniewski
I am really happy that we didn't trade James yesterday as some had predicted. He not only can shoot, but, as we saw tonight, also has some serious moves. I also feel that his physical play and positioning are good enough to take a regular shift at even-strength. Along with PK and the Hammer we have a decent top-4 as we head down the stretch. Sopel, Mara, Weber, Spacek and Picard should give us some options and assurance too, for what will hopefully be at least another 2 full months of hockey.

Goaltender

Carey Price - Game Puck
It was throw back night in Atlanta. Back to a time when the Habs used to play in front of 500 people and another time (last year) when we used to let up 40+ shots with regularity. Just like Halak did for us last year Price seemed to welcome the added shot-load. He looked so good in his net that I was very shocked to see one go in. This game was a nice bounce back after being sick for a couple of days.


Comments


Atlanta played like a team desperate to make the playoffs; we played like a team that belongs in them. Sure, they had more chances and shots, but we seemed to be the team that handles the pressure better. Had it not been for Price we would have lost. That is a true statement, but we have Price, we have him, like that, in almost every game. That is like saying that the Caps without Ovechkin couldn't win or the Sens with a goalie could. Our team is built to rely on solid goaltending and tonight we exercised that right. For some reason we never play that well in Atlanta (I think it may be due to the lack of emotion or excitement in that building) so it was nice to take the win. We have two very winnable games coming up this week in Florida and I would like to get the 4 points. 2 wouldn't be a disaster, but now could be the time to really solidify our spot as I feel that we are clicking enough to make the full 4 a reality.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Game #63

Montreal Keeps It Simple, Takes Two Points

Details



Date: 26/2/2011
Opponent: Hurricanes
Location: Montreal

Win: 4-3

Habs Goalie: Auld (W)
Opposition Goalie: Ward (L)

Habs goalscorers: Cammalleri, Eller, Plekanec, Kostitsyn
Opposition goalscorers: Jokinen, Ruutu, Stillman



Play of the game


I really liked what I saw when Kostitsyn laid that hit that led to the Eller goal. He came in on the Hurricane defender and not only rattled the player, but also won body position. From that he dove to get the puck to his centre in front. It wasn't an easy shot, but Lars certainly made it count. Not bad at all from our third line.



Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Andrei Kostitsyn - Game Puck
Was this his last game as a Hab? I hope not, because tonight he was at his best and I would hate to lose a player of this caliber. His assist was sublime and his game-winning goal was quite simply icing on the cake. I think that he thrives on the 3rd line and always has; I hope that he stays there and tears it up in the coming weeks.

Tomas Plekanec
Pleks quietly had a goal and an assist tonight as he creeps closer towards the 50-point plateau. He still hasn't found his A+ game, but tonight was another step in the right direction. His line is clicking and I believe that it is only a matter of time until he is back to being our go-to guy.

Mike Cammalleri
What a goal Mike scored in the first! That type of goal doesn't come that often in the NHL and one must only watch enough games before they appreciate how special that shot was. He also chipped in on Plek's goal which, to me, is an added bonus. It looks like he is getting back into the groove now too and I can say that he is just in time.

Defencemen

Hal Gill
Hal played a simple game tonight; perhaps reminding us that we should keep him beyond Monday. Does he fit into our long-term plans? Well, since long-term really means our till November or beyond plans then I would say yes. He is playing very well of late and I really liked what I saw tonight. He is playing well with PK and, if my hunch is correct, will keep getting better as we head towards the playoffs.

PK Subban
PK was great on offence, bad on defence and spectacular on defence all at the same time. That is the game we get from Subban as it is rarely average. I saw a lot of highlight reel stuff tonight as he seemed to be involved in as many Habs chances as 'Canes ones. I did, however, like how he always followed the play, how he always made up for his own mistakes.

Goaltender

Alex Auld
Early on this was Price's dome as Alex looked bad, under-prepared and nervous. Was he not used to the 2 starts in a row? Maybe not used to being the guy that we were relying on? Whatever the case he started badly as it was rebound or missed played puck over and over. As the game went on, however, he settled in and it started to work. He was making the saves that he had to and was gaining his team's confidence. The goals were weak, but he pulled out the win and played well enough over the 60 minutes to deserve it.


Comments


When a team is chasing you the best way to stop the bleeding is to do it yourselves. Tonight we were able to solidify our position and hurt Carolina's all at once. This wasn't a great game by either team, but it was an important one and the Habs were the only team that got the result. I liked our offence tonight and was happy that all of the lines were active. I also felt that our D did a pretty good job against a pretty tenacious offence. This wasn't a must win per-se, but had we lost in regulation we woudl be worried about next week. It is, therefore, a very good thing that we took this win and that we did it with relative ease (compared to our last few games). Things are only going to get tougher from here on in, so we can use all of the points that we can get at this point.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Game #62

Habs Play Well, Leafs Refs Play Better

Details



Date: 24/2/2011
Opponent: Maple Leafs
Location: Montreal

Loss: 4-5

Habs Goalie: Auld, Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Reimer (W)

Habs goalscorers: Halpern, Cammalleri, Wisniewski, Pacioretty
Opposition goalscorers: Kessel (2), Lebda, Bozak (2)



Play of the game


Cammalleri's goal was a beaut, and boy did we need a goal from Mike. It started when PK made a great play to gain the zone and then attack it. Most players would have given up on the play, but Subban kept it going. He couldn't get to the goal, but just before rounding it left the puck for Kostitsyn. Andrei then made a great pass to Mike who was able to place a perfect shot by Reimer.



Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Jeff Halpern - Game Puck
I haven't seen Jeff play this well since early in the season. I wonder if the trade deadline makes a journeyman veteran pick it up a bit? Proving he wants to stay? Proving why another team wants him? Nah, I don't really think it was that, but he did play a fantastic game. Towards the end he seemed to be very active around the Leaf goal and I wasn't surprised that he was in on Pacioretty's marker.

Tomas Plekanec
Pleks is certainly picking it up of late. Tonight was another great example of how good of a player he is as he, at times, dominated in both ends. He was on the ice for three of our goals, but did so much more than that. His best stuff was his one-on-ones that he seemed to be winning with fairly good regularity. Making Komisarek look like a fool, even though it isn't that hard, is always welcome with me.

Max Pacioretty
If there is one thing that has been bothering me of late with Max it is that he always tries to go inside then outside on every defender he faces. It isn't working for him and, unfortunately, often ends in a turn-over. That, however, isn't enough to deter me tonight. In fact, I do quite like that he at least is getting the puck and trying stuff with it. What I did like was that he wanted to be at the net all game long and he wanted to take shots, as many as he could. In all he took 9 and it, therefore, isn't surprising that one finally went in.

Defencemen

James Wisniewski
James probably wants to make sure that he is still with this team in a week and what better way to do that than score your first of 2011. He did very well on the PP and laid some nice hits too. It will be interesting to see what our D will be next week (it looks like Spacek it out long-term), but I am hoping that James is a part of it because he adds an element that when we don't have it, we all complain that we need it; so much so some even wanted MAB back.

Roman Hamrlik
This was another fantastic game from Roman. He played 28+ minutes which may seem like too much, but for all the assumptions about him getting tired, he isn't really showing it. He has had some down times over the season, but, for the most part, has been very reliable in every aspect of play. Like the Wis, I hope that Hammer is part of this team next week and I think that he is making a very good case to be on it next year too.

Goaltender

Carey Price
Not too much to choose tonight. Both goalies played and Price played better. Auld got unlucky, but so did Price. I would like to say that had Price started we would have won, but that is taking the blame off the refs and putting it on Auld. Tonight I really don't think that either goalie was a major deciding factor.


Comments


4 refs to supervise 12 players. 4! How on earth they can get the majority of calls wrong, I'll never know. The refs in this league are horrible, we all know that, but tonight they went beyond their usual farce, they were putrid. This game would have been so different had Gionta not been called for lifting a stick and having a Leaf player catch an edge. For starters we should have been given a PP on that very play and, the real kicker, Gionta could have scored as he had a 2-0n-1 going when that call was made. Two quick PP goals by Toronto gave them a lead that they really had no business taking. We played better than the Leafs tonight and deserved a better result. I felt that we played some of our most intense, chance-ridden hockey late in the third period; a type of hockey that would overwhelm any team. It is upsetting that we didn't come out of this with a point and I can only hope that the coaches saw the same thing that I did and side with the players, and not against them, in this case. Carolina is never easy for us, but with them so close behind us I feel that we really need a regulation win, no if, and or refs about it.

Dawes, Sopel Acquired From Atlanta

Gauthier managed to find the other 5'9" 14 goal man in the league to complete his set. In addition to Nigel Dawes, he added Stanley Cup champion Brent Sopel to the backline.

The days of playing 8 D can't be far away.


What does this confirm?

Are Habs buyers?
Not sure if this confirms that or not. Dawes is a depth forward and Sopel is a depth defenceman.


Are Atlanta selling up?
Don't think this is evidence of that. Dawes is a first liner from the Chicago Wolves, but probably doesn't figure in Atlanta's plans. Sopel never seems to be in anyone's plans. If this was Ladd, then Atlanta would have sent a signal.


Is Spacek injured badly?
I think this confirms that. I can't see Gauthier spending anything to get Sopel otherwise.


Are the Habs going for it?
I think this move signals Gauthier would hate to miss the playoffs. But you know what? Without Markov, Spacek and Gorges, I'm not sure there's anything that Mara and Sopel could do about this season.


Is this signalling another trade?
People will see too many D and think someone here is on the outs. Weber is the most likely poster boy. Sopel, Mara, Picard don't make me think Weber sits, personally, but it is a possibility. Weber is probably the most valuable "tradeable" player in the lineup. I don't want him traded though.


Who wins this trade?

Maxwell had potential. Or so we heard. Third season in the AHL has not been his best. Sure there's been upheaval and changing linemates, but the onus was on Maxwell to show something by this point. The Canadiens can't hang around forever for every prospect. I think he was expendable.

The 4th round pick is a fourth round pick. Sure, there are sometimes players to be had in the 4th round or later. But on average there are not. The onus is on the Habs scouts to pick the right players with fewer picks, but not having the 4th shouldn't hurt them too much.

Dawes. 3 full NHL seasons, 3 10+ goal seasons. Not sure why he hasn't been in Atlanta, but this wouldn't be the first questionable move made in Atlanta (as they slide way out of the playoffs again). Dawes may well be the player that Gauthier wanted with Dustin Boyd. 27 goals in the AHL so far shows he can still shoot a little bit.

Sopel is the dark horse from Atlanta. Everyone hears about Byfuglien and Enstrom. He's Atlanta's 7th D in terms of TOI/G, but he's played in 59 of 61 and put up the second best +/- on the team. One of very few in the positive side of the ledger. Sopel used to be an offensive defenceman, but that was ages ago now. I think he's adapted to the lesser role and has started to make a twilight calling for himself as a solid last piece on D.


I think the Habs won this trade, but I also think this trade might be it. If that's the case, the Habs have not been a winner of this trade deadline. Chicago struck a good early deal and even Toronto has cashed in well. Pittsburgh paid nothing (on conditions) for Kovalev and other players have left Ottawa for vrtually nothing.

Montreal sures up their playoff run, but do little to change their ultimate springtime fate with this move.

Let's see where this takes us...