Coming up to an important draft for the Habs, I have been looking back through what's been written in the past for inspiration. In this case, I found not just inspiration but something I thought should see the light of day again in its entirety. This is something I wrote before the organization's illustrious 2009 draft. The old advice still applies, I think.
Showing posts with label draft pick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label draft pick. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Dawes, Sopel Acquired From Atlanta
Gauthier managed to find the other 5'9" 14 goal man in the league to complete his set. In addition to Nigel Dawes, he added Stanley Cup champion Brent Sopel to the backline.
The days of playing 8 D can't be far away.
What does this confirm?
Are Habs buyers?
Not sure if this confirms that or not. Dawes is a depth forward and Sopel is a depth defenceman.
Are Atlanta selling up?
Don't think this is evidence of that. Dawes is a first liner from the Chicago Wolves, but probably doesn't figure in Atlanta's plans. Sopel never seems to be in anyone's plans. If this was Ladd, then Atlanta would have sent a signal.
Is Spacek injured badly?
I think this confirms that. I can't see Gauthier spending anything to get Sopel otherwise.
Are the Habs going for it?
I think this move signals Gauthier would hate to miss the playoffs. But you know what? Without Markov, Spacek and Gorges, I'm not sure there's anything that Mara and Sopel could do about this season.
Is this signalling another trade?
People will see too many D and think someone here is on the outs. Weber is the most likely poster boy. Sopel, Mara, Picard don't make me think Weber sits, personally, but it is a possibility. Weber is probably the most valuable "tradeable" player in the lineup. I don't want him traded though.
Who wins this trade?
Maxwell had potential. Or so we heard. Third season in the AHL has not been his best. Sure there's been upheaval and changing linemates, but the onus was on Maxwell to show something by this point. The Canadiens can't hang around forever for every prospect. I think he was expendable.
The 4th round pick is a fourth round pick. Sure, there are sometimes players to be had in the 4th round or later. But on average there are not. The onus is on the Habs scouts to pick the right players with fewer picks, but not having the 4th shouldn't hurt them too much.
Dawes. 3 full NHL seasons, 3 10+ goal seasons. Not sure why he hasn't been in Atlanta, but this wouldn't be the first questionable move made in Atlanta (as they slide way out of the playoffs again). Dawes may well be the player that Gauthier wanted with Dustin Boyd. 27 goals in the AHL so far shows he can still shoot a little bit.
Sopel is the dark horse from Atlanta. Everyone hears about Byfuglien and Enstrom. He's Atlanta's 7th D in terms of TOI/G, but he's played in 59 of 61 and put up the second best +/- on the team. One of very few in the positive side of the ledger. Sopel used to be an offensive defenceman, but that was ages ago now. I think he's adapted to the lesser role and has started to make a twilight calling for himself as a solid last piece on D.
I think the Habs won this trade, but I also think this trade might be it. If that's the case, the Habs have not been a winner of this trade deadline. Chicago struck a good early deal and even Toronto has cashed in well. Pittsburgh paid nothing (on conditions) for Kovalev and other players have left Ottawa for vrtually nothing.
Montreal sures up their playoff run, but do little to change their ultimate springtime fate with this move.
Let's see where this takes us...
The days of playing 8 D can't be far away.
What does this confirm?
Are Habs buyers?
Not sure if this confirms that or not. Dawes is a depth forward and Sopel is a depth defenceman.
Are Atlanta selling up?
Don't think this is evidence of that. Dawes is a first liner from the Chicago Wolves, but probably doesn't figure in Atlanta's plans. Sopel never seems to be in anyone's plans. If this was Ladd, then Atlanta would have sent a signal.
Is Spacek injured badly?
I think this confirms that. I can't see Gauthier spending anything to get Sopel otherwise.
Are the Habs going for it?
I think this move signals Gauthier would hate to miss the playoffs. But you know what? Without Markov, Spacek and Gorges, I'm not sure there's anything that Mara and Sopel could do about this season.
Is this signalling another trade?
People will see too many D and think someone here is on the outs. Weber is the most likely poster boy. Sopel, Mara, Picard don't make me think Weber sits, personally, but it is a possibility. Weber is probably the most valuable "tradeable" player in the lineup. I don't want him traded though.
Who wins this trade?
Maxwell had potential. Or so we heard. Third season in the AHL has not been his best. Sure there's been upheaval and changing linemates, but the onus was on Maxwell to show something by this point. The Canadiens can't hang around forever for every prospect. I think he was expendable.
The 4th round pick is a fourth round pick. Sure, there are sometimes players to be had in the 4th round or later. But on average there are not. The onus is on the Habs scouts to pick the right players with fewer picks, but not having the 4th shouldn't hurt them too much.
Dawes. 3 full NHL seasons, 3 10+ goal seasons. Not sure why he hasn't been in Atlanta, but this wouldn't be the first questionable move made in Atlanta (as they slide way out of the playoffs again). Dawes may well be the player that Gauthier wanted with Dustin Boyd. 27 goals in the AHL so far shows he can still shoot a little bit.
Sopel is the dark horse from Atlanta. Everyone hears about Byfuglien and Enstrom. He's Atlanta's 7th D in terms of TOI/G, but he's played in 59 of 61 and put up the second best +/- on the team. One of very few in the positive side of the ledger. Sopel used to be an offensive defenceman, but that was ages ago now. I think he's adapted to the lesser role and has started to make a twilight calling for himself as a solid last piece on D.
I think the Habs won this trade, but I also think this trade might be it. If that's the case, the Habs have not been a winner of this trade deadline. Chicago struck a good early deal and even Toronto has cashed in well. Pittsburgh paid nothing (on conditions) for Kovalev and other players have left Ottawa for vrtually nothing.
Montreal sures up their playoff run, but do little to change their ultimate springtime fate with this move.
Let's see where this takes us...
Canadiens Deadline Assets
Votes In On Draft Picks and Non-Pros
Gonna take a half-way poll on this, as the trade deadline creeping closer. Still enough response to feel fan sentiment on these assets.
This list is interesting as it starts to show how precious Canadiens fans are with their assets. In terms of trade now, we're talking about late picks, and even those assets people seem to be willing to give away are only in the round 3+ range. I assume that if I had not pooled 3 and 4, 3 would be higher and four would be lower. Bennett is a player we don't know or hear about, so it's not too surprising he's in the tradeable book.
In the land of having to give to get, there won't be much available for teams that are precious about all their decent draft picks and all the players that are deemed worthy high choices. We'll see how people feel about Hamilton prospects.
Once again, those who haven't voted and still wish to, the poll is still open (I will keep updating the stats, perhaps to publish again closer to the deadline):
This list is interesting as it starts to show how precious Canadiens fans are with their assets. In terms of trade now, we're talking about late picks, and even those assets people seem to be willing to give away are only in the round 3+ range. I assume that if I had not pooled 3 and 4, 3 would be higher and four would be lower. Bennett is a player we don't know or hear about, so it's not too surprising he's in the tradeable book.
In the land of having to give to get, there won't be much available for teams that are precious about all their decent draft picks and all the players that are deemed worthy high choices. We'll see how people feel about Hamilton prospects.
Once again, those who haven't voted and still wish to, the poll is still open (I will keep updating the stats, perhaps to publish again closer to the deadline):
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Canadiens Deadline Assets
Draft Picks and Non-Pros
Had some great voting on the current players (Forwards, Defence and Goalies).
A team like the Canadiens, if buying aren't likely to find many takers for their slag without using sweeteners like recent and future draft picks. This vote is where we get to see what kind of fans you really are.
A team like the Canadiens, if buying aren't likely to find many takers for their slag without using sweeteners like recent and future draft picks. This vote is where we get to see what kind of fans you really are.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Canadiens Fan Trade Philosophies
The trade deadline is an interesting time for Habs fans. Everyone has a whole set of ideas on how to improve the team for the impending Cup run and the fledgling dynasty of the decade.
Trades, you see are easy. Just get rid of your bad players and bring in good ones. Simple as.
We are having a good time polling the readers and compiling their thoughts on different players (forwards, defencemen and goalies). As well as the obvious trade bait, there are some subtle surprises in fan sentiment. We'll continue polling and sharing the results as we try to build fictional trades together in our discussions.
On the subject of fictional trades, I wanted to share the perspectives of two arm-chair GMs that I read yesterday. The first perspective is that of Arpon Basu - statistical acolyte and head-screwed-on-tight reporter.
Arpon's proposed plan for the upcoming trade deadline can be summed up by the following:
1) The team won't have to give up assets
2) The youngsters will benefit from the time in pressure situations
Some would call him a pessimist. others might think it boring to draw a line in the sand at late draft picks for depth defencemen for the most overhyped TSN moment of the year.
On that note, let's consider the other end of the spectrum. If Arpon is the sparingly hopeful conservative, he shares the Internet with some some extremely optimistic (in trade abilities anyway) radicals.
Where Arpon stretched a simple thought to a few well built scenarios. The trade mongers need more than one post to get through the complete overhaul they envision for the team. Willey, the ultimate arm chair GM who wrote on Habs Addict, describes the multiple trade strategy over two posts (Part I and Part II). I'll break it down for you trade by trade here:
1) 2nd round pick (presumably 2012) and Ben Maxwell or Andreas Engqvist for Chris Phillips of the Ottawa Senators
2) Tom Pyatt or 6th round pick for Zenon Konopka of the New York Islanders
3) White up, Eller down
4) Andrei Kostitsyn, Yannick Weber, 2nd round pick (presumably 2013 now), and Danny Kristo or any Hamilton Bulldog (Blues discretion) for David Backes of the St. Louis Blues
5) Scott Gomez, 1st round pick (2011 or 2012), and Brendan Gallagher or another prospect of Toronto's choosing for Mike Komisarek of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Quite an overhaul and quite a difference from Arpon.
Willey here has traded a first round pick with second rounders from the two drafts after this one, along with our second centre (Scott Gomez), our fourth leading scorer (Andrei Kostitsyn), a young defenceman (Yannick Weber), Tom Pyatt and basically all the decent forward prospects in the system (Kristo, maxwell, Gallagher) for two underperforming defencemen (Phillips and Komisarek), Zenon Konpka and David Backes.
These trades were designed to answer the two pressing needs of the Habs (or at least the ones identified just after the Bruins game): lack of size and lack of depth. I think he addressed size, not so sure about depth.
Where should Gauthier fall?
I've made myself clear before, and through thinly-veiled amazement in this article again. I stand with Arpon.
To me, the second more radical strategy actually proves the first.
All trades starting with players a team would like to get rid of tend to become fantastic works of imagination, and you can see how draft picks get thrown around pretty quick to make up for lack of value.
I am also sure that in the long list of traded assets that you, like me, saw a few names you'd rather wait on than turn into Konopkas at this stage. And, this is an important point. There are no freebies, to get, one has to give. If the Canadiens window isn't now, then is giving Danny Kristo or Brendan Gallagher for an extra playoff jump the right thing to do? It can be if that extra jump turns into an extra series or two.
Even more than this, I look at the team at the end of the labour-intensive trading period for Gauthier here and don't see one that is greatly improved from the one before the moves.
I think there is middle ground, however, and I think there are many reasons to hope our GM will be alert to the unfolding possibilities. The Frolik trade, for example, provided the Blackhawks both the better player and the most interesting prospect. A move with a similarly sleepy GM could improve the Habs without much cost. I very much hope Gauthier comes into these conversations with serious intent, as desperate GMs are ready to be had at this time of year. Caution, of course, in the awareness that for every good deal there will be 20 neutral ones and 10 bad ones.
To those that bemoan the Mara trade today for the 5th round pick and cap space that it cost, consider the safe buffer between this trade and radical territory. For those who bemoan it because it means we now won't be trading first rounders for Komisarek, perhaps read Arpon Basu again.
Trades, you see are easy. Just get rid of your bad players and bring in good ones. Simple as.
We are having a good time polling the readers and compiling their thoughts on different players (forwards, defencemen and goalies). As well as the obvious trade bait, there are some subtle surprises in fan sentiment. We'll continue polling and sharing the results as we try to build fictional trades together in our discussions.
On the subject of fictional trades, I wanted to share the perspectives of two arm-chair GMs that I read yesterday. The first perspective is that of Arpon Basu - statistical acolyte and head-screwed-on-tight reporter.
Arpon's proposed plan for the upcoming trade deadline can be summed up by the following:
"I propose he do absolutely nothing, at least not of the major variety."His strategy is founded on the underlying belief that nothing that can be done at this stage will change the fate of the team very much:
"Frankly, the Canadiens are not in a situation where the addition of one or two players could mean the difference between a Cup run and a first round exit."He goes on to point out that doing nothing will benefit the team two-fold:
1) The team won't have to give up assets
2) The youngsters will benefit from the time in pressure situations
Some would call him a pessimist. others might think it boring to draw a line in the sand at late draft picks for depth defencemen for the most overhyped TSN moment of the year.
On that note, let's consider the other end of the spectrum. If Arpon is the sparingly hopeful conservative, he shares the Internet with some some extremely optimistic (in trade abilities anyway) radicals.
Where Arpon stretched a simple thought to a few well built scenarios. The trade mongers need more than one post to get through the complete overhaul they envision for the team. Willey, the ultimate arm chair GM who wrote on Habs Addict, describes the multiple trade strategy over two posts (Part I and Part II). I'll break it down for you trade by trade here:
1) 2nd round pick (presumably 2012) and Ben Maxwell or Andreas Engqvist for Chris Phillips of the Ottawa Senators
"One simple move that I personally feel can turn the Montreal Canadiens from a good playoff team to a team whose d-core can compete with anyone in the Eastern conference."Or at least until Part II was conceived...
2) Tom Pyatt or 6th round pick for Zenon Konopka of the New York Islanders
"What is most appealing about Konopka, however, is that he is not a one trick pony. Konopka is one of the top-five faceoff men in the league and as we know, faceoffs are everything in the playoffs."
3) White up, Eller down
4) Andrei Kostitsyn, Yannick Weber, 2nd round pick (presumably 2013 now), and Danny Kristo or any Hamilton Bulldog (Blues discretion) for David Backes of the St. Louis Blues
"We need a top-six forward with size and a mean streak. It is time to stop the stream of bandaid and UFA players, and land ourselves an impact player."
5) Scott Gomez, 1st round pick (2011 or 2012), and Brendan Gallagher or another prospect of Toronto's choosing for Mike Komisarek of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
"We know what he can provide to this team in terms of a physical presence and we know what he can do in the locker room. He is exactly what this team needs."
Quite an overhaul and quite a difference from Arpon.
Willey here has traded a first round pick with second rounders from the two drafts after this one, along with our second centre (Scott Gomez), our fourth leading scorer (Andrei Kostitsyn), a young defenceman (Yannick Weber), Tom Pyatt and basically all the decent forward prospects in the system (Kristo, maxwell, Gallagher) for two underperforming defencemen (Phillips and Komisarek), Zenon Konpka and David Backes.
These trades were designed to answer the two pressing needs of the Habs (or at least the ones identified just after the Bruins game): lack of size and lack of depth. I think he addressed size, not so sure about depth.
Where should Gauthier fall?
I've made myself clear before, and through thinly-veiled amazement in this article again. I stand with Arpon.
To me, the second more radical strategy actually proves the first.
All trades starting with players a team would like to get rid of tend to become fantastic works of imagination, and you can see how draft picks get thrown around pretty quick to make up for lack of value.
I am also sure that in the long list of traded assets that you, like me, saw a few names you'd rather wait on than turn into Konopkas at this stage. And, this is an important point. There are no freebies, to get, one has to give. If the Canadiens window isn't now, then is giving Danny Kristo or Brendan Gallagher for an extra playoff jump the right thing to do? It can be if that extra jump turns into an extra series or two.
Even more than this, I look at the team at the end of the labour-intensive trading period for Gauthier here and don't see one that is greatly improved from the one before the moves.
I think there is middle ground, however, and I think there are many reasons to hope our GM will be alert to the unfolding possibilities. The Frolik trade, for example, provided the Blackhawks both the better player and the most interesting prospect. A move with a similarly sleepy GM could improve the Habs without much cost. I very much hope Gauthier comes into these conversations with serious intent, as desperate GMs are ready to be had at this time of year. Caution, of course, in the awareness that for every good deal there will be 20 neutral ones and 10 bad ones.
To those that bemoan the Mara trade today for the 5th round pick and cap space that it cost, consider the safe buffer between this trade and radical territory. For those who bemoan it because it means we now won't be trading first rounders for Komisarek, perhaps read Arpon Basu again.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Hilarity Ensues
Yesterday, Brian Burke made his second (in what promises a fortnight with many more) trade of the NHL GM working season. This time, he traded Kris (we hardly knew thee) Versteeg to Philly for draft picks. I listened to the conference call about the trade, and it was typical Burke. He’s already offered the 3rd rounder he got for a player – he seems to insinuate this player will be better than Versteeg?
He hasn’t ruled out trading the first round pick (why would he?) – someone audibly groaned on the call at the sound of that. And he has set his sights on the free agent market – also known as everyone rushes to try and sign Brad Richards lest end up with any one of the other 200 guys.
It made me think of a recent round of Balderdash – the game where you are read a word, a date or a movie title and are tasked with inventing a definition. One of the quirks of the game is that the words “hilarity ensues” generally come up at least once per sitting ¬ generally a hilarious moment itself.
“Hilarity ensues” is a common enough sign off for movie descriptions on the Balderdash cards themselves, and as a result has been adopted by canny players who attempt to imitate the true answers in form and style. A ridiculous title can be associated with almost any plot with this device. “Hilarity ensues” is a key to open endless character combinations and nonsensical premises.
Imagine for a moment a title like “The Toronto Maple Leafs” as I did after listening to Burke speaking to Toronto media. The answers really do write themselves, provided you always end with “hilarity ensues”.
Brian Burke repeatedly assures the media his team will be driving for that last playoff spot, …
The story of a scoring line built around Tyler Bozak, …
Maple Leafs make a series of trades to improve their team, …
Maple Leafs target truculent players via free agency, …
Torontonians open the 1967-68 NHL season with a Stanley Cup and full of optimism for the future, …
Toronto Maple Leafs fans breathe a sigh of relief as they see the end of their worst management regime in years. Cliff Fletcher poses with Brian Burke to pass the torch, …
Hilarity will likely ensue for a while, because there’s little funnier than a guy who truly does believe himself to be in the top cut of world genius making basic mistakes at every turn. I wouldn’t be surprised if Burke turned out for a ceremonial faceoff next week with his underwear outside his trousers.
Hilarity will ensue because the more obvious his errors become the more pig-headed he becomes about admitting to them. He really is quite entertaining.
As a Habs fan, it’s an enjoyable sideshow. Ferguson got us through some rough times and Burke is helping with the Houle healing process. Though I think we’d all like it better if Burke stayed away from anymore team building activities in Boston and Philly for a while.
The best part of Brian Burke’s interview (besides his smugness and his Toronto media stroking) for fans of hilarity (and other teams in the NHL) was his announcement that there is more to come. I, for one, can’t wait to see who Burke wrests away from the unsuspecting Detroit GM for his third rounder. Nikita Filatov or someone of his ilk, can’t be far away from Pearson International if a first rounder is being floated.
Brian Burke woke up on February 15th, assets in hand, ready to pick up the pieces he needed to get his team into the 2010-11 playoff, …
He hasn’t ruled out trading the first round pick (why would he?) – someone audibly groaned on the call at the sound of that. And he has set his sights on the free agent market – also known as everyone rushes to try and sign Brad Richards lest end up with any one of the other 200 guys.
It made me think of a recent round of Balderdash – the game where you are read a word, a date or a movie title and are tasked with inventing a definition. One of the quirks of the game is that the words “hilarity ensues” generally come up at least once per sitting ¬ generally a hilarious moment itself.
“Hilarity ensues” is a common enough sign off for movie descriptions on the Balderdash cards themselves, and as a result has been adopted by canny players who attempt to imitate the true answers in form and style. A ridiculous title can be associated with almost any plot with this device. “Hilarity ensues” is a key to open endless character combinations and nonsensical premises.
Imagine for a moment a title like “The Toronto Maple Leafs” as I did after listening to Burke speaking to Toronto media. The answers really do write themselves, provided you always end with “hilarity ensues”.
Brian Burke repeatedly assures the media his team will be driving for that last playoff spot, …
The story of a scoring line built around Tyler Bozak, …
Maple Leafs make a series of trades to improve their team, …
Maple Leafs target truculent players via free agency, …
Torontonians open the 1967-68 NHL season with a Stanley Cup and full of optimism for the future, …
Toronto Maple Leafs fans breathe a sigh of relief as they see the end of their worst management regime in years. Cliff Fletcher poses with Brian Burke to pass the torch, …
Hilarity will likely ensue for a while, because there’s little funnier than a guy who truly does believe himself to be in the top cut of world genius making basic mistakes at every turn. I wouldn’t be surprised if Burke turned out for a ceremonial faceoff next week with his underwear outside his trousers.
Hilarity will ensue because the more obvious his errors become the more pig-headed he becomes about admitting to them. He really is quite entertaining.
As a Habs fan, it’s an enjoyable sideshow. Ferguson got us through some rough times and Burke is helping with the Houle healing process. Though I think we’d all like it better if Burke stayed away from anymore team building activities in Boston and Philly for a while.
The best part of Brian Burke’s interview (besides his smugness and his Toronto media stroking) for fans of hilarity (and other teams in the NHL) was his announcement that there is more to come. I, for one, can’t wait to see who Burke wrests away from the unsuspecting Detroit GM for his third rounder. Nikita Filatov or someone of his ilk, can’t be far away from Pearson International if a first rounder is being floated.
Brian Burke woke up on February 15th, assets in hand, ready to pick up the pieces he needed to get his team into the 2010-11 playoff, …
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
The Kovalchuk Deal:
Still A Win For Devils
Since yesterday, I have read a half dozen articles that showcase the Kovalchuk ruling as a headache for the Devils.
Damien Cox did some wacky math in The Spin the other day:
Today, Pat Hickey seems to echo the line that the deal is mostly negative for the Devils too.
AS usual, i feel some of the commentators have been swept along and are missing the main point. While it's true the deal has been costly this summer (a $3 million fine and a first and 3rd round draft pick), it still is hugely beneficial to the Devils.
First, we have to debunk the fact that the Devils somehow paid
with Niclas Bergfors, Johnny Oduya, Patrice Cormier and a first-round pick for Kovalchuk. That trade (and we're not forgetting Salmela) was made for the pleasure of dressing Kovalchuk in the 2010 close to the season, nothing more. Ilya was always going to be a UFA, and if anything that's why the cost was as low as it was.
The benefit of Kovalchuk
Really though, the true benefit of this deal comes from being able to dress Kovalchuk for this season and the next 14 at the relatively cut-rate price of $6.67 million a season.
That salary for a player like Kovalchuk is a bargain by league standards at the moment. Kovalchuk hasn't scored less than 40 goals a season since his 20th birthday and has been a point-per-gamer with no supporting cast for many years. Hi salary cap mark puts him currently at the 25th highest in the league (not bad for the best goalscorer of the decade) and behind players like Thomas Vanek, Patrick Marleau and Anze Kopitar (not to mention Scott Gomez).
Now here's the best part. If the league doesn't shrink and the salary cap grows (even only to keep up with inflation) Kovalchuk's cap number will likely look better year after year as players surpass him with new contracts.
And penalties aside, there is nothing the league has done or can do to circumvent the original intent that Kovalchuk would retire whenever he wanted to, presumably long before the age of 42.
So instead of tallying Patrice Cormier and a few draft picks, tally the fact the Devils just acquired the only available superstar in the NHL and signed him to a bargain deal for his current numbers. The numbers stand to look better over the years too as salaries and caps are pushed higher or Kovalchuk retires.
There's no guaranteeing a Cup with a move like this one, but let's not paint one of the most creative deals (maybe the last creative deal) as all negative. The Devils are a better team today than they were last year with Oduya and Bergfors and their three draft picks and that's what really matters.
Damien Cox did some wacky math in The Spin the other day:
But you could argue Kovalchuk will, when its all said and done, cost the Devils somewhere between $150 million and $200 million in salary, fines, prospects, draft picks and players.
Today, Pat Hickey seems to echo the line that the deal is mostly negative for the Devils too.
AS usual, i feel some of the commentators have been swept along and are missing the main point. While it's true the deal has been costly this summer (a $3 million fine and a first and 3rd round draft pick), it still is hugely beneficial to the Devils.
First, we have to debunk the fact that the Devils somehow paid
with Niclas Bergfors, Johnny Oduya, Patrice Cormier and a first-round pick for Kovalchuk. That trade (and we're not forgetting Salmela) was made for the pleasure of dressing Kovalchuk in the 2010 close to the season, nothing more. Ilya was always going to be a UFA, and if anything that's why the cost was as low as it was.
The benefit of Kovalchuk
Really though, the true benefit of this deal comes from being able to dress Kovalchuk for this season and the next 14 at the relatively cut-rate price of $6.67 million a season.
That salary for a player like Kovalchuk is a bargain by league standards at the moment. Kovalchuk hasn't scored less than 40 goals a season since his 20th birthday and has been a point-per-gamer with no supporting cast for many years. Hi salary cap mark puts him currently at the 25th highest in the league (not bad for the best goalscorer of the decade) and behind players like Thomas Vanek, Patrick Marleau and Anze Kopitar (not to mention Scott Gomez).
Now here's the best part. If the league doesn't shrink and the salary cap grows (even only to keep up with inflation) Kovalchuk's cap number will likely look better year after year as players surpass him with new contracts.
And penalties aside, there is nothing the league has done or can do to circumvent the original intent that Kovalchuk would retire whenever he wanted to, presumably long before the age of 42.
So instead of tallying Patrice Cormier and a few draft picks, tally the fact the Devils just acquired the only available superstar in the NHL and signed him to a bargain deal for his current numbers. The numbers stand to look better over the years too as salaries and caps are pushed higher or Kovalchuk retires.
There's no guaranteeing a Cup with a move like this one, but let's not paint one of the most creative deals (maybe the last creative deal) as all negative. The Devils are a better team today than they were last year with Oduya and Bergfors and their three draft picks and that's what really matters.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
A quiet word in Rutherford’s ear
As we head into Game -6 of the season, there is a definite whiff of playoff attitude in the air. Scott Gomez put the fans on notice that there aren’t any tomorrows beyond this game, at least not in the cliché’ed world that NHL minds live in.
In fact he is right. The Hurricanes game is critical. Not just because it could be two much sought points for this Habs squad, but also because of what it would do to the overall playoff race. If the Canadiens beat the Hurricanes tonight it would leave Carolina with a less than 0.015% chance of making the playoffs – essentially elimination. Given that the Canadiens are slated to play Carolina once more, the gentle persuasion of all but formal elimination could mean an easier game, or at least some rookie opposition later in the schedule.
Here’s the thing though, right now Carolina does have a chance, but it’s really only in the theoretical realm. Sports Club Stats gives them about a 0.2% chance of making the post-season, and most scenarios ask for 6 wins from the team that’s on 32 wins and 44 losses. Rather than rely on actions to do the talking, shouldn’t someone just go and have a quiet word in Jim Rutherford’s ear?
What harm could the Canes do in the playoffs?
And intrinsically tied to that: Does Rod Brind’amour even have a playoff run left in him?
A minus 29 on the season suggests he may not. With Matt Cullen gone as well and Zach Boychuk still learning at a very rookie-like pace, this is not a team with much down the centre.
A look at the wings is no more flattering. Erik Cole is not the Erik Cole of old. And as it stands, Kostopoulos is the 4th leading winger in points among healthy choices (and his 8G 11A aren’t convincing anyone he’s become a playoff machine since leaving MTL).
In short, the Canes are in transition. And it’s not a transition that will lead to Cup this spring.
How deep is the draft?
No matter what experts say, people who have ended up with 5th as their highest pick in the last 20 years know that no draft is knee deep in team-changing players. This year shouldn’t be any different. The Hurricanes currently sit in 25th position (or 6th from the bottom). As the lottery goes their best pick would be 2nd, their worst 7th, their likeliest 6th.
6th or 7th won’t turn many franchises from 25th place ones into 5th place ones, much less ones who trade Jack Johnson for virtual nothings. A 2nd or 3rd pick might.
Jim has the chance to help his team drop like a stone and rival the current bottom 5 for the cream of the crop in the draft.
Hurricanes position unique among bottom feeders
The other factor that goes in favour of a forced swoon for the Canes is the fact they look wholly different from their rivals. The Oilers, Leafs, Islanders and Panthers are perennial failures. There must be legitimate concern about fan fatigue with the futility, even in the face of a better pick.
Not so in Carolina. 4 years ago a Cup. Last season a conference final. The fans have had a fill of good hockey and probably thirst for more. That said, the realists among them must see this is not a conference final year and a quick turnaround to coincide with a Ruutu return and a Staal good year might be the ticket.
Furthermore, the Hurricanes are darlings of the NHL. A competitive success in the South. If Florida and the Islanders stink out the place, their very being could be questioned again. The Canes seem safe for now. So too is Rutherford who has won favour with his owner for patience and delivered with patience. There’s little reason to believe patience won’t be on his side this summer.
Collusion isn’t really allowed or encouraged. I am writing this half in jest. Gentle whispers and backroom deals aside, won’t Rutherford be thinking all this already? Wouldn’t any GM faced with a 0.2% of a playoff first round sweep or 1st overall possibility with 3rd or 4th in the bag see things this way?
Let the intrigue begin…
In fact he is right. The Hurricanes game is critical. Not just because it could be two much sought points for this Habs squad, but also because of what it would do to the overall playoff race. If the Canadiens beat the Hurricanes tonight it would leave Carolina with a less than 0.015% chance of making the playoffs – essentially elimination. Given that the Canadiens are slated to play Carolina once more, the gentle persuasion of all but formal elimination could mean an easier game, or at least some rookie opposition later in the schedule.
Here’s the thing though, right now Carolina does have a chance, but it’s really only in the theoretical realm. Sports Club Stats gives them about a 0.2% chance of making the post-season, and most scenarios ask for 6 wins from the team that’s on 32 wins and 44 losses. Rather than rely on actions to do the talking, shouldn’t someone just go and have a quiet word in Jim Rutherford’s ear?
What harm could the Canes do in the playoffs?
And intrinsically tied to that: Does Rod Brind’amour even have a playoff run left in him?
A minus 29 on the season suggests he may not. With Matt Cullen gone as well and Zach Boychuk still learning at a very rookie-like pace, this is not a team with much down the centre.
A look at the wings is no more flattering. Erik Cole is not the Erik Cole of old. And as it stands, Kostopoulos is the 4th leading winger in points among healthy choices (and his 8G 11A aren’t convincing anyone he’s become a playoff machine since leaving MTL).
In short, the Canes are in transition. And it’s not a transition that will lead to Cup this spring.
How deep is the draft?
No matter what experts say, people who have ended up with 5th as their highest pick in the last 20 years know that no draft is knee deep in team-changing players. This year shouldn’t be any different. The Hurricanes currently sit in 25th position (or 6th from the bottom). As the lottery goes their best pick would be 2nd, their worst 7th, their likeliest 6th.
6th or 7th won’t turn many franchises from 25th place ones into 5th place ones, much less ones who trade Jack Johnson for virtual nothings. A 2nd or 3rd pick might.
Jim has the chance to help his team drop like a stone and rival the current bottom 5 for the cream of the crop in the draft.
Hurricanes position unique among bottom feeders
The other factor that goes in favour of a forced swoon for the Canes is the fact they look wholly different from their rivals. The Oilers, Leafs, Islanders and Panthers are perennial failures. There must be legitimate concern about fan fatigue with the futility, even in the face of a better pick.
Not so in Carolina. 4 years ago a Cup. Last season a conference final. The fans have had a fill of good hockey and probably thirst for more. That said, the realists among them must see this is not a conference final year and a quick turnaround to coincide with a Ruutu return and a Staal good year might be the ticket.
Furthermore, the Hurricanes are darlings of the NHL. A competitive success in the South. If Florida and the Islanders stink out the place, their very being could be questioned again. The Canes seem safe for now. So too is Rutherford who has won favour with his owner for patience and delivered with patience. There’s little reason to believe patience won’t be on his side this summer.
Collusion isn’t really allowed or encouraged. I am writing this half in jest. Gentle whispers and backroom deals aside, won’t Rutherford be thinking all this already? Wouldn’t any GM faced with a 0.2% of a playoff first round sweep or 1st overall possibility with 3rd or 4th in the bag see things this way?
Let the intrigue begin…
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
NHL Draft Theory
The NHL draft is 10 days away now and the previews are coming thick and fast. I've been doing some analysis and will offer a preview of what I think the Canadiens should do very soon. To start with, though, I thought I would indulge a little abstract discussion on how I think a team's scouting department should target their efforts.
Generally speaking there are two ways that teams seem to approach a draft:
1) Address specific organizational needs
OR
2) Pick the best player available
Both are very good approaches with arguments for and against. I dissect each below.
Organizational needs
This method is the favourite of analysts. For one thing, it allows them to predict which teams will take which players. It's clearly also a very popular approach among teams.
What this tack has going for it is that when you get it right, your team can tick over as a self-contained machine. The NHL club will be stocked with players from minor league clubs which are all fed through the draft at each position. You'll always have 6 goalies, 20 odd defencemen and many more forwards in the system to keep it alimenting the major league team.
The problem with this approach is that it requires teams to draft things like defensive defencemen and third line wingers. Scouts already have enough trouble seeking out the one player that could be an offensive star one day, giving them extra briefs to fill all on the same day every year is a tough one.
Another problem is that it assumes organizational strength throughout, not only at judging new talent but also at judging the talent within. Call me crazy, but I don't think most organizations are rightly equipped to approach the draft in this way. Most teams have enough trouble picking a GM and a coach, to expect not only that but also excellent NHL level scouts, heads of amateur scouting and eyes on the local arenas is probably stretching reality.
To boot, you'll end up being called the Nashville Predators.
Best player
Those who fall under the Montreal umbrella will be accustomed to hearing the party line that is "Best player available" for a while now. Trevor Timmins in particular is a premier adherent to this school of thought.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with picking who you think is the best, but you would run the risk of overstocking at one position (say defence) while other positions (like goalie and right wing, for example) are perilously weak.
It does alleviate the problem, however, of having to know what you've got in the system. That taxing activity removed would give more time for actually assessing the new potential coming through. I do like the focus of this idea a lot.
It's not necessarily a bad thing, but this system of choosing draft picks does require a good system to build equilibrium be in place. In my experience, a good NHL team has a balance of talent. It's very rare (and probably foolhardy to go against experience) to ice 6 great defenders a decent goalie and AHL forwards and expect much silverware. Similarly, 3 top centers with no defencemen doesn't work for most. That's to say, your GM better be darn good at trading away defensive prospects for forwards if your a head scout who constantly picks defensive stalwarts from Minnesota.
If your team's track record for trading up (or even sideways) in value and bringing in good players through free agency is poor, then you'd better be looking to the draft to fill some of the other positions as well.
Which system for the Canadiens?
Having looked at the alternatives, I'm not really turned on by either. I do feel the Canadiens have a good scouting network in place they certainly seem to turn up more late round steals than an average NHL club. That said, I wouldn't want to be limited to a team built from the draft - the club still does have it share of shocking picks and misses.
It's tempting to think that the best player approach is a worthy one, but I think these last few years have shown us a few things about Timmins' and Gainey's little theory. Drafting loads of defencemen is no good at all when the GM can't flip one in a trade - it just creates a log jam where perfectly good prospects are lost into the ether (or the KHL). It has to be said that losing Emelin and Valentenko when both Mathieu Aubin might be left as the top centre in Hamilton next season is criminal.
The lesson for me in all this is that defencemen are an asset, yes. But defensive projects are not, at least not in a trade. Most clubs trading away value are looking for value that will pay dividends in the relative short term - they don't want David Fischer until they see whether he's able to handle the jump to the NHL at age 25.
I think the Canadiens need a third way to approach this conundrum.
A third system
The third way is a bit different. Rather than selecting the best player, I think the Canadiens should be looking to select the best organizational asset with each pick they make.
Best asset
The first step is to be realistic about how the NHL is run. The draft is what it is, but it is not the only tool available to those building a Stanley Cup contending team. In order to fashion a team to win, a GM must also effectively use free agency, waivers and trades. In the context of all these other avenues of player acquisition, drafting recedes in importance. It is still vital, but in order to maximise your chances your overall, you need to understand what the draft is best for. Moreover, you need to understand what the draft can provide that unrestricted avenues like free agency and waivers cannot.
It's simple really, simple economics: supply and demand.
Recent history shows that the hardest things to get your hands on (from another team) are reliable scoring forwards and top-notch defencemen. Incidentally, these are also the two categories of player that will cost you the moon on July 1st - and due to taxes and other issues are probably out of Montreal's reach altogether in free agency. It follows that having these assets in the system for a possible trade will offer the best return should you want it.
By contrast, drafting and developing defensive or lower scoring forwards is something anyone can do. These players can be traded for with relative ease, signed on July 10th when the dust settles or even acquired through non-draft routes as undrafted players. In other words, one should not look at as a defensive forward or a future back-up goalie as a true organizational asset.
Swing for the fences
Another part of being realistic about the NHL is knowing that having 43 good prospects is not that much better than having 8. Trades are few and don't look to be rising, and teams with a raft of prospects often get shorted on trades because of the perception they are not giving up as much.
Knowing that you don't have to have seven draftees making it all the way to the NHL or the AHL or even the ECHL should be a relief. It's realistic. My question prior to each pick wouldn't be who has the best odds of being an NHL player, but rather who has the best odds (even if they're outside) of being the best offensive star or, if a defenceman, top defender.
A team shouldn't be using any pick, let a lone a top pick to select a player who's already called a defensive forward or defensive defenceman at the junior level. You can't criticise much in the draft, but you can criticise this.
Habs fans, how would you like to have Travis Zajac. He was picked 2 selections after Kyle Chipchura as a risky offensive prospect. He's already played 3 seasons on the New Jersey Devils and is a first/second liner with a 20-goal season by age 23. The Devils swung for the fence and the Canadiens have a forward that can play like their waiver wire pick-up Geln Metropolit (if they're lucky). Chipchura may one day have me eating my words, but Gainey could have traded Huet for him instead of that second round pick in a pinch if he liked him so much - it's just not hard to acquire the Chipchuras of this world. The Zajacs, well you tell me...
If your drafting is any good, and ours is, swinging for the fences should come off once in a while. And who knows, maybe we can replicate our Markov pick with a Datsyuk and Zetterberg of our own.
Trade picks if the math adds up
There will come times when someone comes knocking for that pick. At those times, I can only advise listening.
The Tanguay trade was a classic example of an opportunity well taken. No matter how you sliced it, the likelihood of getting a player as good as Tanguay (a scoring star – one of those rare assets) in either the first or second round of the NHL draft was slim to none. Gainey missed a chance at an organizational asset, but added an actual asset. Also, the addition of Tanguay bumped people down in the organization. Corey Locke, for example was now expendable and used in a trade for something of use to the team.
Trading picks like this is to be encouraged in my third approach, so long as the opportunity cost calculation is sound. a 25th pick for Tanguay (even for one year) is a win. Had that pick been a 10th overall, the choice gets murkier. 5th overall and it's a loser.
In sum
Don't pick the player with the best chance of being an NHLer, pick the one with a chance at being a star Don't even bother picking the types of players you can easily pick up by other means (i.e., OK goalies, defensive defencemen and bottom line forwards) Trade the pick if the organization gets a better asset mix from the swap
This is the strategy I can only hope the Canadiens look to in the future. I hope that this year will be the first of many home run swinging affairs and to that 18th pick – whether we use it to choose an amateur or to bring in a pro.
Generally speaking there are two ways that teams seem to approach a draft:
1) Address specific organizational needs
OR
2) Pick the best player available
Both are very good approaches with arguments for and against. I dissect each below.
Organizational needs
This method is the favourite of analysts. For one thing, it allows them to predict which teams will take which players. It's clearly also a very popular approach among teams.
What this tack has going for it is that when you get it right, your team can tick over as a self-contained machine. The NHL club will be stocked with players from minor league clubs which are all fed through the draft at each position. You'll always have 6 goalies, 20 odd defencemen and many more forwards in the system to keep it alimenting the major league team.
The problem with this approach is that it requires teams to draft things like defensive defencemen and third line wingers. Scouts already have enough trouble seeking out the one player that could be an offensive star one day, giving them extra briefs to fill all on the same day every year is a tough one.
Another problem is that it assumes organizational strength throughout, not only at judging new talent but also at judging the talent within. Call me crazy, but I don't think most organizations are rightly equipped to approach the draft in this way. Most teams have enough trouble picking a GM and a coach, to expect not only that but also excellent NHL level scouts, heads of amateur scouting and eyes on the local arenas is probably stretching reality.
To boot, you'll end up being called the Nashville Predators.
Best player
Those who fall under the Montreal umbrella will be accustomed to hearing the party line that is "Best player available" for a while now. Trevor Timmins in particular is a premier adherent to this school of thought.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with picking who you think is the best, but you would run the risk of overstocking at one position (say defence) while other positions (like goalie and right wing, for example) are perilously weak.
It does alleviate the problem, however, of having to know what you've got in the system. That taxing activity removed would give more time for actually assessing the new potential coming through. I do like the focus of this idea a lot.
It's not necessarily a bad thing, but this system of choosing draft picks does require a good system to build equilibrium be in place. In my experience, a good NHL team has a balance of talent. It's very rare (and probably foolhardy to go against experience) to ice 6 great defenders a decent goalie and AHL forwards and expect much silverware. Similarly, 3 top centers with no defencemen doesn't work for most. That's to say, your GM better be darn good at trading away defensive prospects for forwards if your a head scout who constantly picks defensive stalwarts from Minnesota.
If your team's track record for trading up (or even sideways) in value and bringing in good players through free agency is poor, then you'd better be looking to the draft to fill some of the other positions as well.
Which system for the Canadiens?
Having looked at the alternatives, I'm not really turned on by either. I do feel the Canadiens have a good scouting network in place they certainly seem to turn up more late round steals than an average NHL club. That said, I wouldn't want to be limited to a team built from the draft - the club still does have it share of shocking picks and misses.
It's tempting to think that the best player approach is a worthy one, but I think these last few years have shown us a few things about Timmins' and Gainey's little theory. Drafting loads of defencemen is no good at all when the GM can't flip one in a trade - it just creates a log jam where perfectly good prospects are lost into the ether (or the KHL). It has to be said that losing Emelin and Valentenko when both Mathieu Aubin might be left as the top centre in Hamilton next season is criminal.
The lesson for me in all this is that defencemen are an asset, yes. But defensive projects are not, at least not in a trade. Most clubs trading away value are looking for value that will pay dividends in the relative short term - they don't want David Fischer until they see whether he's able to handle the jump to the NHL at age 25.
I think the Canadiens need a third way to approach this conundrum.
A third system
The third way is a bit different. Rather than selecting the best player, I think the Canadiens should be looking to select the best organizational asset with each pick they make.
Best asset
The first step is to be realistic about how the NHL is run. The draft is what it is, but it is not the only tool available to those building a Stanley Cup contending team. In order to fashion a team to win, a GM must also effectively use free agency, waivers and trades. In the context of all these other avenues of player acquisition, drafting recedes in importance. It is still vital, but in order to maximise your chances your overall, you need to understand what the draft is best for. Moreover, you need to understand what the draft can provide that unrestricted avenues like free agency and waivers cannot.
It's simple really, simple economics: supply and demand.
Recent history shows that the hardest things to get your hands on (from another team) are reliable scoring forwards and top-notch defencemen. Incidentally, these are also the two categories of player that will cost you the moon on July 1st - and due to taxes and other issues are probably out of Montreal's reach altogether in free agency. It follows that having these assets in the system for a possible trade will offer the best return should you want it.
By contrast, drafting and developing defensive or lower scoring forwards is something anyone can do. These players can be traded for with relative ease, signed on July 10th when the dust settles or even acquired through non-draft routes as undrafted players. In other words, one should not look at as a defensive forward or a future back-up goalie as a true organizational asset.
Swing for the fences
Another part of being realistic about the NHL is knowing that having 43 good prospects is not that much better than having 8. Trades are few and don't look to be rising, and teams with a raft of prospects often get shorted on trades because of the perception they are not giving up as much.
Knowing that you don't have to have seven draftees making it all the way to the NHL or the AHL or even the ECHL should be a relief. It's realistic. My question prior to each pick wouldn't be who has the best odds of being an NHL player, but rather who has the best odds (even if they're outside) of being the best offensive star or, if a defenceman, top defender.
A team shouldn't be using any pick, let a lone a top pick to select a player who's already called a defensive forward or defensive defenceman at the junior level. You can't criticise much in the draft, but you can criticise this.
Habs fans, how would you like to have Travis Zajac. He was picked 2 selections after Kyle Chipchura as a risky offensive prospect. He's already played 3 seasons on the New Jersey Devils and is a first/second liner with a 20-goal season by age 23. The Devils swung for the fence and the Canadiens have a forward that can play like their waiver wire pick-up Geln Metropolit (if they're lucky). Chipchura may one day have me eating my words, but Gainey could have traded Huet for him instead of that second round pick in a pinch if he liked him so much - it's just not hard to acquire the Chipchuras of this world. The Zajacs, well you tell me...
If your drafting is any good, and ours is, swinging for the fences should come off once in a while. And who knows, maybe we can replicate our Markov pick with a Datsyuk and Zetterberg of our own.
Trade picks if the math adds up
There will come times when someone comes knocking for that pick. At those times, I can only advise listening.
The Tanguay trade was a classic example of an opportunity well taken. No matter how you sliced it, the likelihood of getting a player as good as Tanguay (a scoring star – one of those rare assets) in either the first or second round of the NHL draft was slim to none. Gainey missed a chance at an organizational asset, but added an actual asset. Also, the addition of Tanguay bumped people down in the organization. Corey Locke, for example was now expendable and used in a trade for something of use to the team.
Trading picks like this is to be encouraged in my third approach, so long as the opportunity cost calculation is sound. a 25th pick for Tanguay (even for one year) is a win. Had that pick been a 10th overall, the choice gets murkier. 5th overall and it's a loser.
In sum
- Don't worry about organizational needs – worry about the players available
This is the strategy I can only hope the Canadiens look to in the future. I hope that this year will be the first of many home run swinging affairs and to that 18th pick – whether we use it to choose an amateur or to bring in a pro.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Cue The Imitators
When Anaheim won the Cup in 2007, all those who had been convinced for so long that big and nasty equated with unbeatable were vindicated.
Then last year, Detroit won. So everyone was re-educated to realise that puck possession with a perfect specimen anchoring the D was the way to go.
Now this. Pittsburgh (or should I say Pittsburg Magnitogorsk) have proven the real way to win is different.
First you have to commit to 5 years of absolute futility. That will get you the 5 top 3 draft picks you need to build a team. Obviously, you need to be careful to time this so you don't get Kovalchuk and Stefan, but Malkin and Crosby. More helpful would be if you timed a lockout. That way, one season of losing gets you two top picks.
The next thing you have to do is fire the coach that got you to the final the year before and hire someone with no NHL experience. Not too early though. Probably February to be safe.
Next, name one of your first overall draft picks the captain the minute he steps onto the ice. If he's 18, all the better.
Make sure you scout Russians well -- they are the key You'll need a dominant one to be the best forward over the season and the playoffs. You could probably use one to be your best offensive defenceman and a feisty playoff winger that scores timely goals would be nice too (for flex we'll let you get away with former Soviet for now). This strategy is key, because when you're down, you'll find out how Russians can lift your team of indifferent Canadians with their long thirst for a sip from Stanley's mug.
For the rest of your team, don't fret too much. It doesn't matter. You can make trades for any Islander, because you have centres who've learned from the master at how to make anyone (Rob Brown) score. Depth is overrated, so you can make all the silly trades you want (provided you keep those 5 top picks). Just fill the holes with names.
Also, don't worry about losing too much as the draft picks start to come through. Don't get edgy when your fans stop coming and the team might fold. This is all part of the recipe. If you need money, get that player who you never paid his full salary the last time you were bankrupt and get him to chip in.
There you go, Cup in ten years time guaranteed.
What about Detroit?
Clearly made too many mistakes. Sticking with that discipline and patient system was a mistake. Can you believe they didn't fire their coach with all the signs they had (i.e., January turning into February)? And can you believe they signed the second leading playoff point-getter and goalscorer from the year prior (a known choker)? No one else was so stupid to offer him a contract.
All this franchise has done is shown us now how to be the #1 loser. How to be the ones crying on the ice when the Russian overlords parade the trophies. A smart team has been honing their golf together after their players return from playing for Denmark and Switzerland in the Worlds.
Quick, someone tell Brian Lawton before he trades that pick.
Mocking aside, congratulations to Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh fans (Darren). This makes the league more interesting - and more excruciating for a team trying to come out of the East.
Then last year, Detroit won. So everyone was re-educated to realise that puck possession with a perfect specimen anchoring the D was the way to go.
Now this. Pittsburgh (or should I say Pittsburg Magnitogorsk) have proven the real way to win is different.
First you have to commit to 5 years of absolute futility. That will get you the 5 top 3 draft picks you need to build a team. Obviously, you need to be careful to time this so you don't get Kovalchuk and Stefan, but Malkin and Crosby. More helpful would be if you timed a lockout. That way, one season of losing gets you two top picks.
The next thing you have to do is fire the coach that got you to the final the year before and hire someone with no NHL experience. Not too early though. Probably February to be safe.
Next, name one of your first overall draft picks the captain the minute he steps onto the ice. If he's 18, all the better.
Make sure you scout Russians well -- they are the key You'll need a dominant one to be the best forward over the season and the playoffs. You could probably use one to be your best offensive defenceman and a feisty playoff winger that scores timely goals would be nice too (for flex we'll let you get away with former Soviet for now). This strategy is key, because when you're down, you'll find out how Russians can lift your team of indifferent Canadians with their long thirst for a sip from Stanley's mug.
For the rest of your team, don't fret too much. It doesn't matter. You can make trades for any Islander, because you have centres who've learned from the master at how to make anyone (Rob Brown) score. Depth is overrated, so you can make all the silly trades you want (provided you keep those 5 top picks). Just fill the holes with names.
Also, don't worry about losing too much as the draft picks start to come through. Don't get edgy when your fans stop coming and the team might fold. This is all part of the recipe. If you need money, get that player who you never paid his full salary the last time you were bankrupt and get him to chip in.
There you go, Cup in ten years time guaranteed.
What about Detroit?
Clearly made too many mistakes. Sticking with that discipline and patient system was a mistake. Can you believe they didn't fire their coach with all the signs they had (i.e., January turning into February)? And can you believe they signed the second leading playoff point-getter and goalscorer from the year prior (a known choker)? No one else was so stupid to offer him a contract.
All this franchise has done is shown us now how to be the #1 loser. How to be the ones crying on the ice when the Russian overlords parade the trophies. A smart team has been honing their golf together after their players return from playing for Denmark and Switzerland in the Worlds.
Quick, someone tell Brian Lawton before he trades that pick.
Mocking aside, congratulations to Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh fans (Darren). This makes the league more interesting - and more excruciating for a team trying to come out of the East.
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
The New Bag of Pucks
Habs Trade Least Allowable For New Defenceman
The Canadiens have reportedly acquired AHL defenceman TJ Kemp from the Wilkes Barre Penguins. In a league where you can no longer trade for cash or future considerations, a conditional 7th (final) round pick from a team in the top half of the standings is as bottom of the barrel as it can get. This will not ever go down as a trade that Gainey lost, as it is already written into the deal that he can't possibly lose.
As for the player we get in return for our (wink wink) draft pick, Kemp is a decent minor leaguer. His first season in the AHL, he made the all-star game (then again Ryan O'Byrne could do that). Last season he put up 46 points, with 8 goals. And this season, he's slightly less than a point every other game.
He's of a decent size, can skate well enough and is considered an offensive D. I mean, Gainey wouldn't replace Yannick Weber on Hamilton if the Switzerlander wasn't going to suit up in Montreal would he?
I think it's good news for those crowing about Weber since September. He will probably be getting an extended look, and if Carbonneau permits his BFF Brisebois some rest, maybe even some playing time...
As for the player we get in return for our (wink wink) draft pick, Kemp is a decent minor leaguer. His first season in the AHL, he made the all-star game (then again Ryan O'Byrne could do that). Last season he put up 46 points, with 8 goals. And this season, he's slightly less than a point every other game.
He's of a decent size, can skate well enough and is considered an offensive D. I mean, Gainey wouldn't replace Yannick Weber on Hamilton if the Switzerlander wasn't going to suit up in Montreal would he?
I think it's good news for those crowing about Weber since September. He will probably be getting an extended look, and if Carbonneau permits his BFF Brisebois some rest, maybe even some playing time...
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