Many thanks to Habs Eyes on the Prize for linking up the video of Trevor Timmins discussing the recent NHL draft. To read a transcript, this interview is as dull and uninformative as they come. but that's hardly the point. In the way he answers questions and to watch his body language, this Timmins interview is interesting and revealing.
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Friday, July 12, 2013
Tuesday, July 02, 2013
Canadiens Best 2013 Draftees May Be Small Again
The Canadiens took the biggest forward of consensus quality to be selected in the NHL draft this past Sunday. This is the story.
Friday, June 28, 2013
A Good Week
No the Canadiens didn't win the Stanley Cup, but considering their team has been on the links for weeks, this has been a pretty good week for Habs fans.
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Old Thoughts For New Draft
Coming up to an important draft for the Habs, I have been looking back through what's been written in the past for inspiration. In this case, I found not just inspiration but something I thought should see the light of day again in its entirety. This is something I wrote before the organization's illustrious 2009 draft. The old advice still applies, I think.
Monday, June 25, 2012
Canadiens Clean Up At Draft
It started soundly enough. Day one saw the Canadiens avoid the lure of the #3 defencemen on offer and took an offensive center instead.
Though he's already being touted as a solution to the Habs undersized centre stable, he's only an inch taller than the guys they are calling small at this draft and on the Habs. Maybe he plays big? We'll have to see if he does in the NHL.
So with Galchenyuk, the Habs at least grab a a forward. My choice would have been to ignore the sudden pessimism and take Grigorenko anyway. He's bigger and can play with speed and size. The worry justified his drop. But then the Habs could have dropped into lower position with a barometer on the situation and pulled another steal on a day they were fleecing the other GMs (Day 2).
If we say I was warm on Galchenyuk, I was downright delighted when the picks started rolling in on Saturday.
Sebastien Collberg is the kind of player I'd have touted if the Habs were picking in their traditional 14-20 spot. He is a natural goalscorer with that Swedish background. This is no Minnesota High School flash in the pan. He has shown his stripes at major international tournaments already. It's a risk like all forwards are, but a much better one than one would have expected at #33 in a weak draft.
Tim Bozon is another coup on my books. The Habs get a French-speaking, high-flying WHL scorer in the early third round. 36 goals in the WHL is rare enough, but rarer as a rookie. The WHL, being the tough league it is, gives a good sense of the potential of a scorer and I think Bozon has a chance to succeed in his quest for NHL hockey. A great find at the position he was taken.
Dalton Thrower was a high scoring WHL defenceman in a year where that was the vogue. A second rounder in the end, with his stats, he could have looked just as natural as a mid first rounder. He's labelled a small player at 5'11", but again, he is only being towered over by Matthew Dumba by an inch and a couple of points. The highly touted Pouliot outscored Dalton by 5 points and did so with an NHL first round blueline partner. Another thing to like is that Thrower already plays with Darren Dietz, a Canadiens prospect from the last go around, and one that looks to be showing enough progress to make it one day himself.
Those are the big 4. But the Habs add a little icing on the cake with their final two picks as well.
Charles Hudon was ranked as the 5th best prospect from the QMJHL for the 2012 draft by Hockey's Future and the first originating from La Belle Province. What a coup for the Canadiens to nab this guy when they did considering the factors at play. He is small, but are we honestly still writing off all small players? Good thing for Habs most GMs are stuck in that mindset. Hope they enjoy their giant 6'1" players.
Brady Vail is a stout OHLer with a good defensive game from a top franchise. A fourth round pick with those credentials is par for the course. He projects currently as a bottom six forward, but one can't ask for top liners throughout. At least this Chipchura-like resume didn't cost an 18th overall pick.
Finally, Erik Nystrom. I have asked over and over that Montreal take care of the Swedish scouting situation and it's a pick like this that shows some confidence that they are moving in the right direction. Nystrom is an off the charts player and one still in the lower ranks of Swedish hockey. But guess what? To get your true steals (Zetterberg, Datsyuk), one has to dig deeper, else the player is know by everyone and reserved for the Oilers in June. The limited info we have on this guy is that he plays offensive hockey (check), with skill (check) and speed (check). He's a bit of a shot in the dark, but with a dazzling end of year p0layoff campaign, the Habs must have seen something they liked. And without risking too much they have loaded up on more intrigue.
Overall, a good haul indeed.
By my count, 3 well-proven goalscorers, a good offensive defenceman, a homegrown prospect, an all-rounder from a good club and a big swing on something they think they spotted. This is the kind of draft that can reignite the fires of skeptics. Worked for me.
Though he's already being touted as a solution to the Habs undersized centre stable, he's only an inch taller than the guys they are calling small at this draft and on the Habs. Maybe he plays big? We'll have to see if he does in the NHL.
So with Galchenyuk, the Habs at least grab a a forward. My choice would have been to ignore the sudden pessimism and take Grigorenko anyway. He's bigger and can play with speed and size. The worry justified his drop. But then the Habs could have dropped into lower position with a barometer on the situation and pulled another steal on a day they were fleecing the other GMs (Day 2).
If we say I was warm on Galchenyuk, I was downright delighted when the picks started rolling in on Saturday.
Sebastien Collberg is the kind of player I'd have touted if the Habs were picking in their traditional 14-20 spot. He is a natural goalscorer with that Swedish background. This is no Minnesota High School flash in the pan. He has shown his stripes at major international tournaments already. It's a risk like all forwards are, but a much better one than one would have expected at #33 in a weak draft.
Tim Bozon is another coup on my books. The Habs get a French-speaking, high-flying WHL scorer in the early third round. 36 goals in the WHL is rare enough, but rarer as a rookie. The WHL, being the tough league it is, gives a good sense of the potential of a scorer and I think Bozon has a chance to succeed in his quest for NHL hockey. A great find at the position he was taken.
Dalton Thrower was a high scoring WHL defenceman in a year where that was the vogue. A second rounder in the end, with his stats, he could have looked just as natural as a mid first rounder. He's labelled a small player at 5'11", but again, he is only being towered over by Matthew Dumba by an inch and a couple of points. The highly touted Pouliot outscored Dalton by 5 points and did so with an NHL first round blueline partner. Another thing to like is that Thrower already plays with Darren Dietz, a Canadiens prospect from the last go around, and one that looks to be showing enough progress to make it one day himself.
Those are the big 4. But the Habs add a little icing on the cake with their final two picks as well.
Charles Hudon was ranked as the 5th best prospect from the QMJHL for the 2012 draft by Hockey's Future and the first originating from La Belle Province. What a coup for the Canadiens to nab this guy when they did considering the factors at play. He is small, but are we honestly still writing off all small players? Good thing for Habs most GMs are stuck in that mindset. Hope they enjoy their giant 6'1" players.
Brady Vail is a stout OHLer with a good defensive game from a top franchise. A fourth round pick with those credentials is par for the course. He projects currently as a bottom six forward, but one can't ask for top liners throughout. At least this Chipchura-like resume didn't cost an 18th overall pick.
Finally, Erik Nystrom. I have asked over and over that Montreal take care of the Swedish scouting situation and it's a pick like this that shows some confidence that they are moving in the right direction. Nystrom is an off the charts player and one still in the lower ranks of Swedish hockey. But guess what? To get your true steals (Zetterberg, Datsyuk), one has to dig deeper, else the player is know by everyone and reserved for the Oilers in June. The limited info we have on this guy is that he plays offensive hockey (check), with skill (check) and speed (check). He's a bit of a shot in the dark, but with a dazzling end of year p0layoff campaign, the Habs must have seen something they liked. And without risking too much they have loaded up on more intrigue.
Overall, a good haul indeed.
By my count, 3 well-proven goalscorers, a good offensive defenceman, a homegrown prospect, an all-rounder from a good club and a big swing on something they think they spotted. This is the kind of draft that can reignite the fires of skeptics. Worked for me.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Habs Picks Are In (Almost)
So there it was, the spectacle of the NHL draft lottery. RDS and TSN outdid themselves by narrowly surpassing the pointlessness of their Trade deadline Day and Free Agency day coverages.
We had to wade through quite a bit of speculation, but eventually there was some excitement.
First we pan to Bill Daly opening an envelope (what too sensitive to show the draw on camera?) and then to Brian Burke to show that the Maple leafs had not won the draft lottery (phew). From this we know that no team directly behind the Leafs were pulled either. Also, we find comfort in seeing that Burke is sticking with his angry man tie fashion.
Another envelope, another loser. This time the Isles miss the win. So that's what Garth Snow looks like...
The big moment didn't give much time for anticipation. The envelope was opened to reveal to Larry Carriere that the Habs would be picking 3rd as their position showed.
On to first, and the Oilers are revealed as the winners. The undeserving GM can't wipe the grin from his face. The sad Blue Jackets take one last loss at the final buzzer.
Picks in
What this means of course is that the Habs will be picking third overall. It will be the team's highest selection in over 30 years. Only the Rangers and Flames (no top 5 picks ever) have had fewer top fivers over that time.
Beyond the third pick, it's good to note that the Habs will be picking 3rd in every subsequent round as well. That is, all those rounds from which they have not already traded their privilege.
So that means 3rd, 33rd, 64th (round 2 has 31 picks), 94th and 154th. The team also owns the rights to Nashville's second round pick this year, thanks to Hal Gill. Essentially the team will have four picks by the time they would have had one in 2008. Five before they would have had their second last season.
This volume is important and not mentioned very often. Five players of the top 100 in a deep year can mean some quality depth added. It also gives the team a chance to mine some quality Quebecois talent (none right now in the consensus top 30, btw) without having to pay over the odds to do it (with too high a pick) or by doing it half-heartedly (O. Archambault @108).
Also very important is that 33rd pick. This pick is a first-round run-off pick and as such is very valuable. It gains more and more value as the trade continues and players that some teams have valued as their top priority fall by the wayside to home run swing picks. The value can be cashed either with one of those players, or perhaps in a bargaining move with an eager buyer on draft day. The luxury of having the other second rounder and the high 3rd and 4th rounders are good buffer for trade.
All this puts the Canadiens scouting staff in a nice position to really go after what they believe in. Furthermore, it gives a new GM some ammunition should the route of trade be considered the way forward.
Grigorenko
The 3rd pick as it stands now looks like it could materialize into Mikhail "Grigo" Grigorenko.
But temper the optimism. The likelihood of that player falling to the third position depends very much on the two teams ahead of the Canadiens.
In the better case scenario, I think we all saw the Blue Jackets taking Yakupov, with Edmonton finally conceding they need something other than a forward and taking (sudden consensus two) Ryan Murray to fill out a team of shooters. With CBJ in second, the logic remains, but is somehow less convincing. Columbus doesn't have a young stable of good forwards in the organization like the Oilers do and can't afford to take the second best player as they cling to NHL life. While a defender might ultimately make more sense for a team who believed Wisniewski the solution to their woes, a jittery team might value the quick fix of a scorer and at last a centre for Nash.
If Grigo is gone, the Canadiens have some soul searching to do. Ryan Murray is not perhaps the player they need on the big team to complement Subban/Markov/Gorges/Emelin/Beaulieu/Tinordi. And one sees what having an expendable young defender can return (McDonagh). The decision to trade that defender should be clear before the situation unfolds so that time is not lost to hesitation.
Personally, I would trade down before picking Murray. Indeed, from what I've read, I might prefer two of the top 30 to one of the next five. I have a bad feeling about Galchenyuk and would rather hedge than take him outright at three.
Whatever happens before June, or in June, I will guarantee that it will be a more exciting time to be a Habs fan than it usually is in early summer. The potential for this kind of talent to join, the potential for movement, the reason to even watch the draft all make for a better June.
We had to wade through quite a bit of speculation, but eventually there was some excitement.
First we pan to Bill Daly opening an envelope (what too sensitive to show the draw on camera?) and then to Brian Burke to show that the Maple leafs had not won the draft lottery (phew). From this we know that no team directly behind the Leafs were pulled either. Also, we find comfort in seeing that Burke is sticking with his angry man tie fashion.
Another envelope, another loser. This time the Isles miss the win. So that's what Garth Snow looks like...
The big moment didn't give much time for anticipation. The envelope was opened to reveal to Larry Carriere that the Habs would be picking 3rd as their position showed.
On to first, and the Oilers are revealed as the winners. The undeserving GM can't wipe the grin from his face. The sad Blue Jackets take one last loss at the final buzzer.
Picks in
What this means of course is that the Habs will be picking third overall. It will be the team's highest selection in over 30 years. Only the Rangers and Flames (no top 5 picks ever) have had fewer top fivers over that time.
Beyond the third pick, it's good to note that the Habs will be picking 3rd in every subsequent round as well. That is, all those rounds from which they have not already traded their privilege.
So that means 3rd, 33rd, 64th (round 2 has 31 picks), 94th and 154th. The team also owns the rights to Nashville's second round pick this year, thanks to Hal Gill. Essentially the team will have four picks by the time they would have had one in 2008. Five before they would have had their second last season.
This volume is important and not mentioned very often. Five players of the top 100 in a deep year can mean some quality depth added. It also gives the team a chance to mine some quality Quebecois talent (none right now in the consensus top 30, btw) without having to pay over the odds to do it (with too high a pick) or by doing it half-heartedly (O. Archambault @108).
Also very important is that 33rd pick. This pick is a first-round run-off pick and as such is very valuable. It gains more and more value as the trade continues and players that some teams have valued as their top priority fall by the wayside to home run swing picks. The value can be cashed either with one of those players, or perhaps in a bargaining move with an eager buyer on draft day. The luxury of having the other second rounder and the high 3rd and 4th rounders are good buffer for trade.
All this puts the Canadiens scouting staff in a nice position to really go after what they believe in. Furthermore, it gives a new GM some ammunition should the route of trade be considered the way forward.
Grigorenko
The 3rd pick as it stands now looks like it could materialize into Mikhail "Grigo" Grigorenko.
But temper the optimism. The likelihood of that player falling to the third position depends very much on the two teams ahead of the Canadiens.
In the better case scenario, I think we all saw the Blue Jackets taking Yakupov, with Edmonton finally conceding they need something other than a forward and taking (sudden consensus two) Ryan Murray to fill out a team of shooters. With CBJ in second, the logic remains, but is somehow less convincing. Columbus doesn't have a young stable of good forwards in the organization like the Oilers do and can't afford to take the second best player as they cling to NHL life. While a defender might ultimately make more sense for a team who believed Wisniewski the solution to their woes, a jittery team might value the quick fix of a scorer and at last a centre for Nash.
If Grigo is gone, the Canadiens have some soul searching to do. Ryan Murray is not perhaps the player they need on the big team to complement Subban/Markov/Gorges/Emelin/Beaulieu/Tinordi. And one sees what having an expendable young defender can return (McDonagh). The decision to trade that defender should be clear before the situation unfolds so that time is not lost to hesitation.
Personally, I would trade down before picking Murray. Indeed, from what I've read, I might prefer two of the top 30 to one of the next five. I have a bad feeling about Galchenyuk and would rather hedge than take him outright at three.
Whatever happens before June, or in June, I will guarantee that it will be a more exciting time to be a Habs fan than it usually is in early summer. The potential for this kind of talent to join, the potential for movement, the reason to even watch the draft all make for a better June.
Thursday, March 08, 2012
NHL March Mathness
Usually this time of the year is fun for the math geeks among us because we get to play with playoff odds. The most adept start talking about permutations about now, while we'd expect an article from the mainstream to come out explaining how the results of the last three games determine a whole season of work.
Talk of odds was on the rise for a few minutes in February, but has thoroughly subsided with consecutive losses. The Habs could make the playoffs in theory, but only in about 0.03% of scenarios, most of which ask them to win 15 games in a row.
So odds aren't making the rounds much these days. That doesn't mean there isn't some math to talk about.
Toronto Maple Leafs
First, we have the Leafs. When the Canadiens were in the running with a nearly 20% chance at the playoffs, the Leafs stood at 70% or higher on most days. But since they fell from 8 games above 0.500 to none, the Leafs have shed a lot of playoff hope.
This may be of little interest to many, but to Habs fans who conceded a season 30 games too soon, watching falling Leaves is about as good as things can get.
Their chances of making the playoffs according to simulation at Sports Club Stats stands at 8.3%. The most likely scenario now placing them with a mediocre 83 points and no chance at games in April or top two picks. So exactly in that zone we would dread to be in as Montreal fans, and one which is so familiar (and possibly responsible) for a playoffless Toronto franchise.
Edmonton Oilers
Second, we have the Edmonton Oilers. I am not alone in citing them as the chief rivals to Montreal's bid to win a top two pick. Tonight, the Habs meet the young bucks in what I am calling the Grigorenko Cup -- a battle to the ends of the clock for most goals against and most credible losing display.
The math with Edmonton is simple. They stand at this time 2 points behind the Canadiens with a game in hand (admittedly games in hands for teams like these two mean 0 points more often than not). A regulation loss in the Grogorenko Cup would give the Canadiens the coveted lower hand in this race to Russian redemption.
Obviously the Oilers would stand equal on points and would have one more game to negotiate without slipping up to grab a point. That's just the start.
The tie-break is also important here.
Currently the Habs have one less regulation or OT win (ROW) than the Oilers, and consequently would win the first tie break. By manoeuvring Edmonton into a win this evening, the advantage would be doubled and make a tie in points a win (remember loss is win now) to the Canadiens.
The next tie break is head-to-head record. In a symmetrical season series such as this one, the tie break is simple -- who got the most points. With an early season loss to the Oilers, the Habs already have the edge in this tie break and could reinforce it with another loss. Winning this tie break would make a tie in the previous tie break a winning scenario too, giving that much more wiggle room for the futile home team.
In the worst case scenario, the Canadiens will win in regulation producing a gulf in points of 4, an equal number of ROWs and a deadlock in the 3rd tie break. This wouldn't be great, not only because of the points, but also because the Habs currently lose the fourth tie break of goal differential, where they haven't been quite bad enough.
An OTL wouldn't be ideal, but is workable.
Draft lottery 2012
I'm sure there are some of you out there who have the same misguided notions about the draft lottery that I used to have. I thought long ago that the lottery was like a raffle where the bottom 5 teams had so many tickets and each was drawn until the order was established.
This is not so. There is only one drawing in the draft lottery and after that team is drawn they merely move up 4 places in the order and the rest shift down accordingly. All 14 non-playoff teams have a chance to be drawn (with diminishing odds, of course). If the 17th place team is drawn, what happens is that they move up to 10th in the draft and 18th to 21st become 11th to 14th picks. All the teams from 22nd to 30th continue as if nothing ever happened retaining the first nine picks.
So the odds for being drawn are not exactly the odds for getting the pick you want.
These are the odds for being drawn:
25.0% - 30th
18.8% - 29th
14.2% - 28th
10.7% - 27th
8.1% - 26th
6.2% - 25th
4.7% - 24th
3.6% - 23rd
2.7% - 22nd
2.1% - 21st
1.5% - 20th
1.1% - 19th
0.8% - 18th
0.5% - 17th
Columbus as it happens will come last. So they have a 100% chance of a top two pick. Because they don't have to win the lottery to pick first, their odds of winning that pick are 25% + the sum of all the odds for teams 17 to 25, which amounts to 48.2%. That would be a lovely position to be in (though I'm not sure the hundreds of fans in Columbus would agree), but it's just not in the cards for the Habs.
Instead we look at positions lower in the order.
Were the Habs to come 29th (beat the Oilers), their odds would look like this:
1st pick: 18.8% (need to win lottery)
2nd pick: 42.0% (CBJ or team lower than 6th wins)
3rd pick: 39.2% (a team from 3rd to 6th wins lottery)
A whopping 60.8% chance of a top two pick.
If the Habs maintain their current position without "passing" Edmonton, the odds are as follows:
1st pick: 14.2%
2nd pick: 0.0%
3rd pick: 56.1%
4th pick: 29.7%
A paltry 14.2% chance of a top two pick.
Since top two is really where it's at, teams from 25th to 28th still have a hope, but only through winning the lottery (you can see those odds above). The benefits of finishing lower come in the position that is retained if a team higher (30th) or lower than wins.
Where the Habs may be lucky is in the fact that it is the Oilers and not another rival in the catbird seat. Looking up and down the Oilers, one finds dynamic scorer after dynamic scorer, but nary a goalie or defenceman around. The team needs a young defender like the Habs need two full scoring lines (a lot), and though they might be happier to retain the losing position, a trade down the road might not be out of the question.
2013 Draft lottery
I don't mean to disturb some sleeping monster, but to those unaware, the NHL and their players association currently have no CBA for next season. The last time this happened, there was no season. And though it's hard to imagine the league taking another PR hit of that magnitude, several factors suggest it's not out of the realm of possibility:
1) The US barely noticed a season without hockey last time
2) Canada came back in stronger numbers to support (though another strike may be a step too far)
3) The NHLPA don't like where they are and have brought in a harder line lawyer to lead their negotiation
4) The NHL owners don't like where they are and wish to reduce the proportion of revenues allotted to players
There are some sticking points there and based on judgments of things most important to owners (PR vs. more revenue in the pocket) and players (share of revenue vs. year of short career), there could be a standoff.
Let's assume for the sake of argument that there is no season. What happens in that scenario is a draft in 2013 without a season's standings to inform it. Last time this happened, Montreal walked away with a high pick by beating the odds somewhat and Pittsburgh nabbed their corner piece.
There's no formula set in stone for a draft of this kind, and perhaps it will be part of negotiation. But last time, it was based on a few things: results of the previous three seasons of play (specifically playoff participation) with some sort of penalty for getting a first overall pick (though it didn't hurt Pittsburgh or Columbus, only Washington). The system is flawed and was clearly dreamt up by someone more likely part of the Penguins than the Capitals organization.
But let's imagine the season is lost and a system that is more equitable to teams that are actually bad at that moment in time (as the real draft is). The Canadiens would stand in good stead.
Talk of odds was on the rise for a few minutes in February, but has thoroughly subsided with consecutive losses. The Habs could make the playoffs in theory, but only in about 0.03% of scenarios, most of which ask them to win 15 games in a row.
So odds aren't making the rounds much these days. That doesn't mean there isn't some math to talk about.
Toronto Maple Leafs
First, we have the Leafs. When the Canadiens were in the running with a nearly 20% chance at the playoffs, the Leafs stood at 70% or higher on most days. But since they fell from 8 games above 0.500 to none, the Leafs have shed a lot of playoff hope.
This may be of little interest to many, but to Habs fans who conceded a season 30 games too soon, watching falling Leaves is about as good as things can get.
Their chances of making the playoffs according to simulation at Sports Club Stats stands at 8.3%. The most likely scenario now placing them with a mediocre 83 points and no chance at games in April or top two picks. So exactly in that zone we would dread to be in as Montreal fans, and one which is so familiar (and possibly responsible) for a playoffless Toronto franchise.
Edmonton Oilers
Second, we have the Edmonton Oilers. I am not alone in citing them as the chief rivals to Montreal's bid to win a top two pick. Tonight, the Habs meet the young bucks in what I am calling the Grigorenko Cup -- a battle to the ends of the clock for most goals against and most credible losing display.
The math with Edmonton is simple. They stand at this time 2 points behind the Canadiens with a game in hand (admittedly games in hands for teams like these two mean 0 points more often than not). A regulation loss in the Grogorenko Cup would give the Canadiens the coveted lower hand in this race to Russian redemption.
Obviously the Oilers would stand equal on points and would have one more game to negotiate without slipping up to grab a point. That's just the start.
The tie-break is also important here.
Currently the Habs have one less regulation or OT win (ROW) than the Oilers, and consequently would win the first tie break. By manoeuvring Edmonton into a win this evening, the advantage would be doubled and make a tie in points a win (remember loss is win now) to the Canadiens.
The next tie break is head-to-head record. In a symmetrical season series such as this one, the tie break is simple -- who got the most points. With an early season loss to the Oilers, the Habs already have the edge in this tie break and could reinforce it with another loss. Winning this tie break would make a tie in the previous tie break a winning scenario too, giving that much more wiggle room for the futile home team.
In the worst case scenario, the Canadiens will win in regulation producing a gulf in points of 4, an equal number of ROWs and a deadlock in the 3rd tie break. This wouldn't be great, not only because of the points, but also because the Habs currently lose the fourth tie break of goal differential, where they haven't been quite bad enough.
An OTL wouldn't be ideal, but is workable.
Draft lottery 2012
I'm sure there are some of you out there who have the same misguided notions about the draft lottery that I used to have. I thought long ago that the lottery was like a raffle where the bottom 5 teams had so many tickets and each was drawn until the order was established.
This is not so. There is only one drawing in the draft lottery and after that team is drawn they merely move up 4 places in the order and the rest shift down accordingly. All 14 non-playoff teams have a chance to be drawn (with diminishing odds, of course). If the 17th place team is drawn, what happens is that they move up to 10th in the draft and 18th to 21st become 11th to 14th picks. All the teams from 22nd to 30th continue as if nothing ever happened retaining the first nine picks.
So the odds for being drawn are not exactly the odds for getting the pick you want.
These are the odds for being drawn:
25.0% - 30th
18.8% - 29th
14.2% - 28th
10.7% - 27th
8.1% - 26th
6.2% - 25th
4.7% - 24th
3.6% - 23rd
2.7% - 22nd
2.1% - 21st
1.5% - 20th
1.1% - 19th
0.8% - 18th
0.5% - 17th
Columbus as it happens will come last. So they have a 100% chance of a top two pick. Because they don't have to win the lottery to pick first, their odds of winning that pick are 25% + the sum of all the odds for teams 17 to 25, which amounts to 48.2%. That would be a lovely position to be in (though I'm not sure the hundreds of fans in Columbus would agree), but it's just not in the cards for the Habs.
Instead we look at positions lower in the order.
Were the Habs to come 29th (beat the Oilers), their odds would look like this:
1st pick: 18.8% (need to win lottery)
2nd pick: 42.0% (CBJ or team lower than 6th wins)
3rd pick: 39.2% (a team from 3rd to 6th wins lottery)
A whopping 60.8% chance of a top two pick.
If the Habs maintain their current position without "passing" Edmonton, the odds are as follows:
1st pick: 14.2%
2nd pick: 0.0%
3rd pick: 56.1%
4th pick: 29.7%
A paltry 14.2% chance of a top two pick.
Since top two is really where it's at, teams from 25th to 28th still have a hope, but only through winning the lottery (you can see those odds above). The benefits of finishing lower come in the position that is retained if a team higher (30th) or lower than wins.
Where the Habs may be lucky is in the fact that it is the Oilers and not another rival in the catbird seat. Looking up and down the Oilers, one finds dynamic scorer after dynamic scorer, but nary a goalie or defenceman around. The team needs a young defender like the Habs need two full scoring lines (a lot), and though they might be happier to retain the losing position, a trade down the road might not be out of the question.
2013 Draft lottery
I don't mean to disturb some sleeping monster, but to those unaware, the NHL and their players association currently have no CBA for next season. The last time this happened, there was no season. And though it's hard to imagine the league taking another PR hit of that magnitude, several factors suggest it's not out of the realm of possibility:
1) The US barely noticed a season without hockey last time
2) Canada came back in stronger numbers to support (though another strike may be a step too far)
3) The NHLPA don't like where they are and have brought in a harder line lawyer to lead their negotiation
4) The NHL owners don't like where they are and wish to reduce the proportion of revenues allotted to players
There are some sticking points there and based on judgments of things most important to owners (PR vs. more revenue in the pocket) and players (share of revenue vs. year of short career), there could be a standoff.
Let's assume for the sake of argument that there is no season. What happens in that scenario is a draft in 2013 without a season's standings to inform it. Last time this happened, Montreal walked away with a high pick by beating the odds somewhat and Pittsburgh nabbed their corner piece.
There's no formula set in stone for a draft of this kind, and perhaps it will be part of negotiation. But last time, it was based on a few things: results of the previous three seasons of play (specifically playoff participation) with some sort of penalty for getting a first overall pick (though it didn't hurt Pittsburgh or Columbus, only Washington). The system is flawed and was clearly dreamt up by someone more likely part of the Penguins than the Capitals organization.
But let's imagine the season is lost and a system that is more equitable to teams that are actually bad at that moment in time (as the real draft is). The Canadiens would stand in good stead.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Draft Pick Love
During the regular season all fan energy is geared to just making the playoffs. 82 games of ups and downs culminate in what amounts to two weeks of nail biting for all but 3 teams at the top and bottom. The lucky 8 make it through and experience brief elation and short relief.
The playoffs take more energy. Game 1 and Game 2 hold huge hope and anticipation no matter the results. Anyone can win in the playoffs, the mantra repeated. Game 3 and onwards things get serio9us. Elimination looms, progression attainable. The fan channels energy into every facet of the game.
In a short but very intense moment of the NHL calendar, every blocked shot, every dressing room visit, every post-game quote is taken for full analysis (and not just in Montreal). This period is all-consuming. Thoughts seldom stray to other topics, it's team all day.
But then it ends. One way or another it ends. For 15 teams, the end is abrupt and dissatisfying. Seldom do fans have more than 40 minutes to morph from undying belief to total disbelief. The energy that was generated, nurtured, stored is left without direction.
The lucky fan can dissipate it all with a single fist to wall rendez-vous. Some can transfer it all, miraculously celebrating victory every year in different stripes. Those of us that are so accursed to attach everything to one group of 23 are left with adrenaline to burn and plenty of time and space in which to do it.
The NHL entry draft
Enter the NHL entry draft, a shopping excursion for NHL teams during which scouting departments pick whole generations of hockey players clean to the bone over a single weekend.
For the unsatiated fan the entry draft provides. It provides those topsy turvy moments where worst is first and playoff vanquished are in the driver's seat.
If I remember back to a time when there was no internet and the team I followed largely left their fans with ample achievement in their bellies come June, I remember being one of a few who followed the draft. Certainly one of a few who could list the picks in later rounds.
Through a combination of pent up glory-envy and the creation of means for release of this playoff stored energy, the following for such academic interests has grown exponentially. Nowadays it seems that draft day and the days that precede it are some of the busiest days of the year for a blog like this one. Nowadays, it seems like there is as much excitement in hearing the "right" name called on a June afternoon as there is on hearing the goal siren on a cold November evening. The fervent fan of hockey games transformed into the fervent fan of hockey operations.
In a hockey game, the glasses fitted for the team one supports allows for lopsided views to become reason. Each goal for a thing of beauty, each goal against a grievous error, each penalty for an unlucky misfire, each penalty against a revelation of justice.
I am beginning to see these glasses creep into the world of hockey operations fandom. While other teams can make errors donning their silly logoed shirts, the "porteurs du Saintte Flanelle" are a thing of grace even in the offseason.
How else to explain the sudden rush of support that is bestowed on each and every name called on the day of drafting, no matter how little we knew of the 17 year olds they were a minute before?
How else to explain the gulf of affection that lies between newly added 20 year-olds and those whose names we spent summers studying up on?
My theory is exactly that. That fans with that excess of hockey-allotted energy stored from May (or April) spend it throughout a summer. With little otherwise to spend it on other than qualifying offers and stories of gym routines, those 6-10 newly adorned sweaters from mid-June take the lion's share. The hours that would be spent reading about Lars Eller's ankle wrapping in early May are channeled into hockey databases and scouting reports and reviews of those hockey operations additions.
And I think there are varying levels of energy too. I mentioned the lucky ones who can turn off in May and turn on in October. Grades must then range from people who have a few days left of itch to months worth. Those with little begin and end most likely with the Nathan Beaulieus of the world, while the next tiers spend their reserves on rounds next until they realise summer just happened.
I am hardly amazed then that each first round draft pick of the storied Montreal Canadiens instantly becomes hero. I am hardly surprised that after only a few weeks, each unknown darts to the top of lists of organizational successes.
Intriguing to me still though is how enduring this love is. How even in the face of scrutiny and trials and comparisons to peers nearly each and every first rounder maintains an aura that will be carried for years. Intriguing how one decision made in June (that probably could have gone any one of 10 different directions) is deemed right and good.
You'll know if you follow this blog that I have been a bit down recently on Jarred Tinordi. In fact, I am starting to feel like a lone critic some of the time and made to feel almost traitorous for my words. Jarred, you see was taken as the Canadiens first pick in he 2010 draft which shortly followed the exhilarating run and highly disappointing end to that season. It seems I have touched a nerve perhaps too soon. Perhaps because Jarred is (or has to be) the good that came from that season without a Cup (again).
I don't pretend to know which way is right. The fact I can let go of the hope I had for the 2010 draft just like the hope of coming back against Pronger's smothering Philadelphia might just make me lucky. Perhaps I am wrong to even wish to let go of the little nugget we picked out of the river of the 2010 season. Maybe I'm the hockey operations fan equivalent of the guy who gets his beer during the period to skip the lineups.
I don't know. All I know is first round picks is not yet on the level of missed calls for me. I probably have decades of pent-up energy left for how wrong the refs got it on Doug Gilmour's broken glass penalty. Nathan Bealieu? you have maybe 5 months...
The playoffs take more energy. Game 1 and Game 2 hold huge hope and anticipation no matter the results. Anyone can win in the playoffs, the mantra repeated. Game 3 and onwards things get serio9us. Elimination looms, progression attainable. The fan channels energy into every facet of the game.
In a short but very intense moment of the NHL calendar, every blocked shot, every dressing room visit, every post-game quote is taken for full analysis (and not just in Montreal). This period is all-consuming. Thoughts seldom stray to other topics, it's team all day.
But then it ends. One way or another it ends. For 15 teams, the end is abrupt and dissatisfying. Seldom do fans have more than 40 minutes to morph from undying belief to total disbelief. The energy that was generated, nurtured, stored is left without direction.
The lucky fan can dissipate it all with a single fist to wall rendez-vous. Some can transfer it all, miraculously celebrating victory every year in different stripes. Those of us that are so accursed to attach everything to one group of 23 are left with adrenaline to burn and plenty of time and space in which to do it.
The NHL entry draft
Enter the NHL entry draft, a shopping excursion for NHL teams during which scouting departments pick whole generations of hockey players clean to the bone over a single weekend.
For the unsatiated fan the entry draft provides. It provides those topsy turvy moments where worst is first and playoff vanquished are in the driver's seat.
If I remember back to a time when there was no internet and the team I followed largely left their fans with ample achievement in their bellies come June, I remember being one of a few who followed the draft. Certainly one of a few who could list the picks in later rounds.
Through a combination of pent up glory-envy and the creation of means for release of this playoff stored energy, the following for such academic interests has grown exponentially. Nowadays it seems that draft day and the days that precede it are some of the busiest days of the year for a blog like this one. Nowadays, it seems like there is as much excitement in hearing the "right" name called on a June afternoon as there is on hearing the goal siren on a cold November evening. The fervent fan of hockey games transformed into the fervent fan of hockey operations.
In a hockey game, the glasses fitted for the team one supports allows for lopsided views to become reason. Each goal for a thing of beauty, each goal against a grievous error, each penalty for an unlucky misfire, each penalty against a revelation of justice.
I am beginning to see these glasses creep into the world of hockey operations fandom. While other teams can make errors donning their silly logoed shirts, the "porteurs du Saintte Flanelle" are a thing of grace even in the offseason.
How else to explain the sudden rush of support that is bestowed on each and every name called on the day of drafting, no matter how little we knew of the 17 year olds they were a minute before?
How else to explain the gulf of affection that lies between newly added 20 year-olds and those whose names we spent summers studying up on?
My theory is exactly that. That fans with that excess of hockey-allotted energy stored from May (or April) spend it throughout a summer. With little otherwise to spend it on other than qualifying offers and stories of gym routines, those 6-10 newly adorned sweaters from mid-June take the lion's share. The hours that would be spent reading about Lars Eller's ankle wrapping in early May are channeled into hockey databases and scouting reports and reviews of those hockey operations additions.
And I think there are varying levels of energy too. I mentioned the lucky ones who can turn off in May and turn on in October. Grades must then range from people who have a few days left of itch to months worth. Those with little begin and end most likely with the Nathan Beaulieus of the world, while the next tiers spend their reserves on rounds next until they realise summer just happened.
I am hardly amazed then that each first round draft pick of the storied Montreal Canadiens instantly becomes hero. I am hardly surprised that after only a few weeks, each unknown darts to the top of lists of organizational successes.
Intriguing to me still though is how enduring this love is. How even in the face of scrutiny and trials and comparisons to peers nearly each and every first rounder maintains an aura that will be carried for years. Intriguing how one decision made in June (that probably could have gone any one of 10 different directions) is deemed right and good.
You'll know if you follow this blog that I have been a bit down recently on Jarred Tinordi. In fact, I am starting to feel like a lone critic some of the time and made to feel almost traitorous for my words. Jarred, you see was taken as the Canadiens first pick in he 2010 draft which shortly followed the exhilarating run and highly disappointing end to that season. It seems I have touched a nerve perhaps too soon. Perhaps because Jarred is (or has to be) the good that came from that season without a Cup (again).
I don't pretend to know which way is right. The fact I can let go of the hope I had for the 2010 draft just like the hope of coming back against Pronger's smothering Philadelphia might just make me lucky. Perhaps I am wrong to even wish to let go of the little nugget we picked out of the river of the 2010 season. Maybe I'm the hockey operations fan equivalent of the guy who gets his beer during the period to skip the lineups.
I don't know. All I know is first round picks is not yet on the level of missed calls for me. I probably have decades of pent-up energy left for how wrong the refs got it on Doug Gilmour's broken glass penalty. Nathan Bealieu? you have maybe 5 months...
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Tinordi And The Habs Prospects
Today, Habs Eyes On The Prize has published their profile for #10 player under the age of 25 in the entire Habs organization: Jarred Tinordi.
I was part of the voting for these top 25 players and I promised you all that I would have comments on the picks when the time was right. Well the time is right. I think Jarred Tinordi at #10 says a lot about this team, its future and the fans who follow its story.
First of all, you should know that I did vote for Jarred Tinordi in this poll. I placed him at #22 on my overall list of players under the age of 25.
Tinordi in my estimation was drafted for one main reason: size. Luckily for us Habs fans he is not just big, he is very big. In fact, he's so big (6'7"). But the rest of the scouting report of Jarred Tinordi is not made to turn heads. He skates well (always written for a big player), he has an excellent shot from the point (but it must be noted he actually scores few goals with it) is mean (but by most reports not that mean).
Based on numerous firsthand reports of acquaintances and OHL fans, I gather he had an enormous amount of trouble adapting to the OHL. Even the most generous reports said only that he fit in and just didn't set himself apart from the garden variety OHL Dman. At the end of the day, he had a rough first season in the OHL. Yes, he was a rookie in that league. But at 18/19 through this season he was not one of the younger players. Legitimate excuses for his performance can be found, but I wonder if we're starting that 2 leagues below the NHL what to expect in a few years.
Tinordi at #10 is an indictment of the Canadiens talent pool
One of the problems I have with Tinordi is that I find his profiles and projections speak to me. I find little I can disagree with based on what I have seen heard and read about the player in the assessments that result. The sum up at the end of his profile on EOTP says it all in this regard:
Does this light any fires? Potential future defensive defenceman?
(Oh good, those summers we won't have to sign Jeff Woywitka or Paul Mara.)
To me, this assessment which essentially spells potential #4-6 defenceman is not heartening at the #10 position among all players under 25. To me, this is a massive indictment of the rest of the plaers that come after him.
Good scoring hands? So what, he'll definitely be less valuable than a future Hal Gill. Impressive season in the WHL? Whatever,there's no way he'll fare better than someone who struggled in the OHL. 5'9" with speed? I'd trade all the skill and speed for 9 inches.
Overrated
Luckily Habs fans, I don't think the Habs pool of players is awful, I just think that in this case Tinordi's value has been vastly overrated. Moreover, I think the value of having a very big guy as your 5th most frequently used defender has been overrated.
Take for example some of the players I ranked ahead of him that eventually received a lower consensus number than him: Michael Bournival, Brendan Gallagher, Alexander Avtsin, Brock Trotter and Magnus Nygren.
Bournival just put up his second point per game season in a row in the QMJHL as the Captain of the Shawinigan Cataractes. He was a late cut from the Canadian Junior Team (not an early cut from the American Junior team) and scored plenty of goals. Bournival certainly is a guaranteed first line player, but hope is not lost that he could score in the NHL.
Gallagher just scored 40+ goals for the second straight season in a WHL where 28 goals is now sometimes touted as future power forward. If he was over 6' tall he would be in the top 3 Habs prospects. With a chance taken on him, there's plenty of precedent to see NHL goals in his future too.
Avtsin just played his first season in Hamilton after his stint in the KHL. Again questions exist, but the tools are plain to see. Skating, shooting, puck control and many other of the unteachables. A bit of investment in time and teaching into a player like this would turn him into better than a 5th defenceman in my honest opinion.
Trotter was 6th in AHL scoring 2 seasons ago and did a pretty bang up job in the KHL this past season. He's an injury away from the NHL this season. Used correctly nothing in his past suggests he'll be a hanger-on.
Nygren is my favourite. He just ended a season as one of the best up and coming defencemen in the top Swedish league. Playing with men, he availed himself well and wrested the PP QB role from established members of the organization at age 20. Skating and Swedish acumen alone suggest he would have chance, and a chance with upside.
These are just four for me, but four that I would be comfortable placing higher ceilings on than Jarred Tinordi. Sure they all face uncertainty about NHL career at all, but then I wouldn't mind if I'd never had to watch Andy Sutton.
In my estimation, the Habs have drafted fairly well and filled in the gaps pretty adeptly with players like Raphael Diaz, Brock Trotter, Peter Delmas and Alain Berger.
In my estimation the team has one of the brighter crops of players under the age of 25 in the league.
Tinordi, apart from in size, bloodlines and picks invested does not stack up to these 5 and the other 7 guys I ranked a head of him.
I don't see this a s a bad thing, but rather something very bright. For if I shared the opinion that our tenth best young player could one day, if things go well, be put out to defend the future Chris Kellys of the league then I'm pretty certain I'd be looking into future winter pastimes to take up in 5 years time.
I was part of the voting for these top 25 players and I promised you all that I would have comments on the picks when the time was right. Well the time is right. I think Jarred Tinordi at #10 says a lot about this team, its future and the fans who follow its story.
First of all, you should know that I did vote for Jarred Tinordi in this poll. I placed him at #22 on my overall list of players under the age of 25.
Tinordi in my estimation was drafted for one main reason: size. Luckily for us Habs fans he is not just big, he is very big. In fact, he's so big (6'7"). But the rest of the scouting report of Jarred Tinordi is not made to turn heads. He skates well (always written for a big player), he has an excellent shot from the point (but it must be noted he actually scores few goals with it) is mean (but by most reports not that mean).
Based on numerous firsthand reports of acquaintances and OHL fans, I gather he had an enormous amount of trouble adapting to the OHL. Even the most generous reports said only that he fit in and just didn't set himself apart from the garden variety OHL Dman. At the end of the day, he had a rough first season in the OHL. Yes, he was a rookie in that league. But at 18/19 through this season he was not one of the younger players. Legitimate excuses for his performance can be found, but I wonder if we're starting that 2 leagues below the NHL what to expect in a few years.
Tinordi at #10 is an indictment of the Canadiens talent pool
One of the problems I have with Tinordi is that I find his profiles and projections speak to me. I find little I can disagree with based on what I have seen heard and read about the player in the assessments that result. The sum up at the end of his profile on EOTP says it all in this regard:
If his development goes well I would expect Tinordi to become a good 3rd pairing defenseman that his used heavily in his own end and on the penalty kill, with the outside chance he might turn out to be a decent 2nd pairing shutdown player.I wholeheartedly agree. I to am optimistic that Tinordi will one day play in the NHL. But, I share the notion that his ceiling will be a complementary role on any future team.
Does this light any fires? Potential future defensive defenceman?
(Oh good, those summers we won't have to sign Jeff Woywitka or Paul Mara.)
To me, this assessment which essentially spells potential #4-6 defenceman is not heartening at the #10 position among all players under 25. To me, this is a massive indictment of the rest of the plaers that come after him.
Good scoring hands? So what, he'll definitely be less valuable than a future Hal Gill. Impressive season in the WHL? Whatever,there's no way he'll fare better than someone who struggled in the OHL. 5'9" with speed? I'd trade all the skill and speed for 9 inches.
Overrated
Luckily Habs fans, I don't think the Habs pool of players is awful, I just think that in this case Tinordi's value has been vastly overrated. Moreover, I think the value of having a very big guy as your 5th most frequently used defender has been overrated.
Take for example some of the players I ranked ahead of him that eventually received a lower consensus number than him: Michael Bournival, Brendan Gallagher, Alexander Avtsin, Brock Trotter and Magnus Nygren.
Bournival just put up his second point per game season in a row in the QMJHL as the Captain of the Shawinigan Cataractes. He was a late cut from the Canadian Junior Team (not an early cut from the American Junior team) and scored plenty of goals. Bournival certainly is a guaranteed first line player, but hope is not lost that he could score in the NHL.
Gallagher just scored 40+ goals for the second straight season in a WHL where 28 goals is now sometimes touted as future power forward. If he was over 6' tall he would be in the top 3 Habs prospects. With a chance taken on him, there's plenty of precedent to see NHL goals in his future too.
Avtsin just played his first season in Hamilton after his stint in the KHL. Again questions exist, but the tools are plain to see. Skating, shooting, puck control and many other of the unteachables. A bit of investment in time and teaching into a player like this would turn him into better than a 5th defenceman in my honest opinion.
Trotter was 6th in AHL scoring 2 seasons ago and did a pretty bang up job in the KHL this past season. He's an injury away from the NHL this season. Used correctly nothing in his past suggests he'll be a hanger-on.
Nygren is my favourite. He just ended a season as one of the best up and coming defencemen in the top Swedish league. Playing with men, he availed himself well and wrested the PP QB role from established members of the organization at age 20. Skating and Swedish acumen alone suggest he would have chance, and a chance with upside.
These are just four for me, but four that I would be comfortable placing higher ceilings on than Jarred Tinordi. Sure they all face uncertainty about NHL career at all, but then I wouldn't mind if I'd never had to watch Andy Sutton.
In my estimation, the Habs have drafted fairly well and filled in the gaps pretty adeptly with players like Raphael Diaz, Brock Trotter, Peter Delmas and Alain Berger.
In my estimation the team has one of the brighter crops of players under the age of 25 in the league.
Tinordi, apart from in size, bloodlines and picks invested does not stack up to these 5 and the other 7 guys I ranked a head of him.
I don't see this a s a bad thing, but rather something very bright. For if I shared the opinion that our tenth best young player could one day, if things go well, be put out to defend the future Chris Kellys of the league then I'm pretty certain I'd be looking into future winter pastimes to take up in 5 years time.
Monday, July 25, 2011
The Habs' Quiet Summer
A mere two years ago, I was spending Canada Day in Trafalgar Square and entertaining discussions with Habs fans from around the world on the additions of Scott Gomez and Mike Cammalleri, the imminent departures of Alex Kovalev and Saku Koivu.
It was an overhaul to overhaul all overhauls. The core of the the team was torn out and millions of dollars were thrown at the repair job. For a twitter user, it was a busy few days.
Jump two years and here we are. It's July 25th already and the speed of news couldn't be helped by twitter -- there hasn't been any. I say none, that's untrue, but for fans used to reading and writing about this team a few times a day, the ten news items that have passed since playoff elimination put us in chat topic tundra.
It's hard to say whether I'd have been happier if searches on Google News had turned up more over these weeks or not. I'm sure a Gomez trade or a Brad Richards signing would have been hours of fun. But in many ways, I don't think I could be more pleased with the way the summer has gone to this point. Maybe that's because this summer I was hoping for relative lack of movement on many fronts, a sign of the content with the team of last season and the discontent with the markets (both free agent and trade).
So, on the heels of avoiding arbitration with a very modest contract, I present to you the top ten Habs quiet coups of Summer 2011:
1) Signing Andrei Markov to what he made before
The Habs could have been more aggressive with negotiation I'm sure. But the numbers they came to at the end made a lot of sense for a player they know and employ so well. There was no shenanigans, no Holmgrenisms in the contract. Just a straight vote of confidence in salary and term.
2) Winning over Alexei Emelin
We've known about this guy as a prospect for years. But he comes to Montreal now as one of the top defenders from the next best league in the world -- it's hard to imagine him not making a top 6. It sounded like it took some doing from Gauthier, perhaps wheels greased by some quality Slovakian Pilsener. A big addition without the inherent risks of dealing with other GMs trying to work you over.
3) Not blowing the budget right away
The salary cap went up by quite a fair margin making players out of many teams that may have thought themselves out, including the Habs. But it was good judgment to keep spending to a minimum on July 1, when the banks opened. The market was weak, and as we see now much of what was available at 3 pm that day is still on the shelves now.
4) Not trading up in the draft
Last year the Habs traded up in the draft and got Tinordi for the cost of two slightly lower picks. They came out with a bet on a tall player, but a step back in terms of depth (usually skillfully filled in second rounders). This year, the team must have considered doing the same when Beaulieu started being passed over. They got a player who dropped anyway and ended up with some bodies from the draft and picks for future years.
5) Repatriating Brock Trotter
Little fanfare for the move, but Brock Trotter was Hamilton's top scorer two seasons ago and he will be again. Both Hamilton and Trotter had got themselves into binds, and both found each other to get out.
6) Maintaining a presence in Switzerland
I harp on about the potential goldmine that could be mined in Russia by a more daring franchise. The Habs seem to be doing their mining quite well in Switzerland. First Streit and Weber, now Diaz and Berger through early free agent signings. Diaz comes with a pedigree and quite a reputation, while Berger is that big right-handed shot who scored as many or more goals in this year's OHL as lots of 2011's first rounders.
7) Resigning Hal Gill
Say what you want about the regular season, this guy is a playoff revelation. The guy who signed Rob Scuderi must be kicking himself now for missing the subtlety of Gill. His price is not a bargain, but a better package of mentor, shot blocker and cooler head is hard to find.
8) Shed no tears
The sentimental team rarely wins. So after good year(s) of service from Halpern, Auld, Pyatt and co. it was OK to watch them go. When the team felt there was a replacement coming up the depth chart, the player was not tendered. Simple. It's good hockey too.
9) Resigning Andrei Kostitsyn
A player who is big, talented and can score 20 goals on the Montreal Canadiens anemic roster. This was our hope from this year's free agency. Well, just ahead of that, Gauthier ignored the calls of the more melodramatic faithful and signed this very player from under his own nose. A good holding play.
10) Realizing a good top 6 requires a good top 7/8...
After Pacioretty and Kostitsyn were resigned, the team's intact top 6 from the healthy halcyon days of January was back. But with money in the pocket and a few seasons of watching temperamental forwards, Gauthier sprung for another to complement the group. Hopefully Travis Moen can earn his cheques with an off-ice view of Plekanec and Gomez from now on.
And the news that bore the story didn't make the list. The Gorges signing is a good solid move. But it was never going to be overlooked, it was never going to go to arbitration and it was never going to be exciting in terms of numbers, term or salary cap gymnastics. As he is on ice, Gorges quietly passed the puck to the next story without making much of a show of it...
It was an overhaul to overhaul all overhauls. The core of the the team was torn out and millions of dollars were thrown at the repair job. For a twitter user, it was a busy few days.
Jump two years and here we are. It's July 25th already and the speed of news couldn't be helped by twitter -- there hasn't been any. I say none, that's untrue, but for fans used to reading and writing about this team a few times a day, the ten news items that have passed since playoff elimination put us in chat topic tundra.
It's hard to say whether I'd have been happier if searches on Google News had turned up more over these weeks or not. I'm sure a Gomez trade or a Brad Richards signing would have been hours of fun. But in many ways, I don't think I could be more pleased with the way the summer has gone to this point. Maybe that's because this summer I was hoping for relative lack of movement on many fronts, a sign of the content with the team of last season and the discontent with the markets (both free agent and trade).
So, on the heels of avoiding arbitration with a very modest contract, I present to you the top ten Habs quiet coups of Summer 2011:
1) Signing Andrei Markov to what he made before
The Habs could have been more aggressive with negotiation I'm sure. But the numbers they came to at the end made a lot of sense for a player they know and employ so well. There was no shenanigans, no Holmgrenisms in the contract. Just a straight vote of confidence in salary and term.
2) Winning over Alexei Emelin
We've known about this guy as a prospect for years. But he comes to Montreal now as one of the top defenders from the next best league in the world -- it's hard to imagine him not making a top 6. It sounded like it took some doing from Gauthier, perhaps wheels greased by some quality Slovakian Pilsener. A big addition without the inherent risks of dealing with other GMs trying to work you over.
3) Not blowing the budget right away
The salary cap went up by quite a fair margin making players out of many teams that may have thought themselves out, including the Habs. But it was good judgment to keep spending to a minimum on July 1, when the banks opened. The market was weak, and as we see now much of what was available at 3 pm that day is still on the shelves now.
4) Not trading up in the draft
Last year the Habs traded up in the draft and got Tinordi for the cost of two slightly lower picks. They came out with a bet on a tall player, but a step back in terms of depth (usually skillfully filled in second rounders). This year, the team must have considered doing the same when Beaulieu started being passed over. They got a player who dropped anyway and ended up with some bodies from the draft and picks for future years.
5) Repatriating Brock Trotter
Little fanfare for the move, but Brock Trotter was Hamilton's top scorer two seasons ago and he will be again. Both Hamilton and Trotter had got themselves into binds, and both found each other to get out.
6) Maintaining a presence in Switzerland
I harp on about the potential goldmine that could be mined in Russia by a more daring franchise. The Habs seem to be doing their mining quite well in Switzerland. First Streit and Weber, now Diaz and Berger through early free agent signings. Diaz comes with a pedigree and quite a reputation, while Berger is that big right-handed shot who scored as many or more goals in this year's OHL as lots of 2011's first rounders.
7) Resigning Hal Gill
Say what you want about the regular season, this guy is a playoff revelation. The guy who signed Rob Scuderi must be kicking himself now for missing the subtlety of Gill. His price is not a bargain, but a better package of mentor, shot blocker and cooler head is hard to find.
8) Shed no tears
The sentimental team rarely wins. So after good year(s) of service from Halpern, Auld, Pyatt and co. it was OK to watch them go. When the team felt there was a replacement coming up the depth chart, the player was not tendered. Simple. It's good hockey too.
9) Resigning Andrei Kostitsyn
A player who is big, talented and can score 20 goals on the Montreal Canadiens anemic roster. This was our hope from this year's free agency. Well, just ahead of that, Gauthier ignored the calls of the more melodramatic faithful and signed this very player from under his own nose. A good holding play.
10) Realizing a good top 6 requires a good top 7/8...
After Pacioretty and Kostitsyn were resigned, the team's intact top 6 from the healthy halcyon days of January was back. But with money in the pocket and a few seasons of watching temperamental forwards, Gauthier sprung for another to complement the group. Hopefully Travis Moen can earn his cheques with an off-ice view of Plekanec and Gomez from now on.
And the news that bore the story didn't make the list. The Gorges signing is a good solid move. But it was never going to be overlooked, it was never going to go to arbitration and it was never going to be exciting in terms of numbers, term or salary cap gymnastics. As he is on ice, Gorges quietly passed the puck to the next story without making much of a show of it...
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Canadiens Draft Primer
The draft is in a few days and the Canadiens need to be ready. Not that Pierre Gauthier couldn’t do this on his own, but just in case he does use this blog as his last minute cramming site, we thought it prudent to put a little effort into a preview for him.
As you know, we already highlighted the lessons that the Canadiens and their crack team need to take from their own draft history, combined with that of their rivals. Just in case they don’t have time to read that, we’ll just post the most important message here:
Don’t, for goodness sake, take another defensive defender in the first round!
That out of the way, we can get down to the serious business of the draft. The way I look at it, there are about 5 categories of players to look at for the first round of this draft (No it isn’t C, RW, LW, …). The categories come fromoff the top of my head painstaking research I have done into drafting over the past decade.
The first category of possible draftees are those that we’ll call Subban substitutes. They aren’t called Subban subs because they will all be as good as Subban – what do you think I’m that good at scouting I can predict NHL readiness from watching a bit of junior? No, they are called Subban subs because the only way we’ll be drafting these players is if we trade PK Subban (or someone of his stature) to the team ahead of us in line who would otherwise take one of them.
The second group of players are aptly called NAFWOPs or Not Available for Weber or Pouliot. Trading the players fans see as expendable may get something, but not these guys. It probably wouldn’t take a Subban to move up, but for all intents and purposes, the Habs aren’t getting a sniff of these NAFWOPs either.
The third category is consensus early picks. These players are highly rated by the media who either a) just watched the Bruins win the Cup and concluded that only a team exactly like the Bruins will ever in again or b) waited until the last minute and couldn’t figure out how to integrate North American and European and Skater and Goalie lists. These are big forwards who scored a lot of goals in the CHL (the minimum cut off for a lot is slipping these days, some guys here scored 20ish). These are players that should be available when the Canadiens pick because a) the media don’t have NHL jobs and b) Brian Burke can’t make all the picks.
The fourth category is the McGuire stunners. These players don’t get mentioned for some reason or another. See category three for media excuses, add drinking while compiling the list. In my opinion, the more stunned Pierre McGuire is by the pick, the better the pick probably is. The Blubbering Blusterer is no clairvoyant.
The fifth and final category is the red flags. This category is entirely determined by me and based on that thorough research I mentioned. The players are unpickable by the Canadiens for reasons of position, over-rating or the fact they have already resorted to the strategy that all slow and non-innovative players take when in a jam – they abandon their reason for being a hockey player by becoming a defensive machine before they even get a sniff of pro hockey.
Subban subs
Not worth spending too much time on these guys really. Primarily because the caliber of prospect that must be traded to get this player is more than likely to be a better prospect on odds than the draft pick himself.
The list here consists of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, Gabriel Landerskog, Jonathan Huberdeau, Sean Couturier, Dougie Hamilton, Ryan Strome and Ryan Murphy.
If any of these players were to be available without trade, or through a cheaper trade, I’d be all for adding them to the fold. Landerskog and Strome fit the bill of what the Canadiens (or any team) could use, Couturier and Huberdeau would be organizational gems, Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson are the kind of guys you make room for, and Hamilton and Murphy are a cut above their peers from the back line (with Murphy being the one I'd go for).
NAFWOPs
Mika Zibanejad, Sven Bartschi, Joel Armia, Mark McNeill all have a lot in common. All forwards. All fit the profile of a scoring forward who may succeed at NHL level. All unlikely to be available by the time the Canadiens pick.
These are the kinds of 9-15 draft picks that make one ask why the Canadiens made the playoffs if they were only going to be stifled in the first round. They make one ask that because players of their scoring ability and general quality are gone at pick 17 if all goes according to plan.
The good news is the NHL is rife with general managers who think their secret revelation is a new and unidentified way to win it all (Thomas Hickey, #4 overall, LA). Usually these GMs win the draft picks above #14 year on year.
So let’s play the game. Let’s say one of these four players slips through the table because someone opts for that 7’ guy and someone wants to impress Pierre McGuire.
If I had my choice for the player to fall to 17, I think I’d go with Joel Armia. Sure, his work ethic is being questioned by the media who watched him play one game at a tournament with lesser players than he, but he put up 18 goals in the Finnish League at age 17 and that’s got to count for something. And, remember how the Habs lost 3 OT games to Boston with Horton and Ryder spoiling the fun. How about this quote then:
I also think Nathan Beaulieu will be gone by all accounts by pick 17. If he fell to that point, the Canadiens would take him, but it might serve them better to trade down if that happens, even if it brings on the annual wrath of RDS.
Consensus mid-teens
Mark Scheifele
Look, I understand why mock drafts take this guy. There are a lot of lists and he’s high on most. To that I would ask why? In my opinion, he gets points for points, points for being big, points for being a center, and dare I say, points for being from the OHL.
Looking deeper though, despite claims he was on a talentless team, Scheifele still racked up way more assists than goals. 75 points is no OHL record and with the ice time he got, I consider the 22 goals a red flag. I also read that 11 of his goals came down a stretch at the end. While to some that would mean he picked it up in clutch games, one must remember there were no clutch games for Barries, so he actually picked it up in meaningless games. Not one for me.
The Hockey Writers call him the safe pick. Safe picks are for rounds 3/4 in my honest opinion...
Matt Puempel
Small in stature, one gets the idea Puempel got his points for actual play rather than the potential of a big guy.34 goals wasn’t something that turned heads in past seasons, but this season it seems high for the CHL. This worries me somewhat as 34 is closer to 20 than it is to 50. Still, from all accounts he makes his living from scoring goals, but still makes time to get assists. Like Scheifele, he played on a pretty awful team, however, and with a hip injury that raises other questions doesn’t get my nod.
Brandon Saad
Not sold on Brandon either for some reason. He's already garnering comments about his two-way game, which might not be a flag with 40 goals under his belt. With 27, it starts to sound like a bit of an excuse. That said, I could be way wrong about this guy.
Duncan Siemens, Jonas Brodin, Oscar Klefbom, Joe Morrow
I’m sure these guys are all fine fellows and even better defenders. But unless someone in the organization thinks they’d be passing up the next Lidstrom or Niedermayer, I’d advise a pass on this group of Dmen. The Habs need to keep Subban around and hopefully can revitalize Markov. These have to be their bets. Together with a commitment to Weber who has shown good promise, I don’t see the need to abandon hope on finding a scorng forward to take and ever so slightly safer bet based on consensus.
McGuire stunners
Stefan Noesen
This guy isn't on mmost lists, simply because they only go to pick #30. But in a year where so many 25-30 goal guys are in the running, it's a bit of a puzzle how a relatively big OHLer with 34 goals and a 69 point jump for the season wouldn't pip some of the former favourites. Let's just accept he rose from nowhere and some in the rankings racket like to save face more than they like to be objective.
34 goals in 68 games. 77 points. Up from 3 goals last season. Noesen comes from Dallas, so he might not be under their radar. But if he slips to the Canadiens #17, he should get consideration. At the very least the team should insinuate they are going to take him to the Big D and see if Nieuwendyk coughs anything up.
Daniel Catenacci
From all reports, Catenacci translates to speed. The most generous comparisons liken him to Mike Cammalleri because of his speed, his attitude and his stature. After a second playoffs watching Camms, I'd sign another one of him up if I could.
Alexander Khokhlachev
Nikita Kucherov
If you don't ever finish low enough to get a high pick, you have to take a chance to get a superstar. Kucherov represents a home run swing. The guy absolutely dominated the MHL, he smashed scoring recoreds at the recent U18 champs, he has potential to be something quite special offensively. I don't think the Canadiens have much to lose by swinging big this year, because at #17 they are already looking at guys that could only muster 20-some goals in junior anyway. If Kucherov is on the radar for this pick, it might be wise, however, to turn the pick into two and take him lower when he'll likely still be available due to his recent KHL: signing.
Tyler Biggs
I'm a bit loathe to put another American college bound kid. We've seen our fair share of these already. But Biggs is legit. He is Big, as his name suggests, and he has a knack for scoring Big goals, if not enormous numbers of them. He has to be on the list for completeness, but he wouldn't be my first choice from these.
Red flags
Boone Jenner
For me his improvement from one year to the next wasn't very impressive and it really does raise the question about how one thinks he'll suddenly become NHL 20-goal material.
Zack Phillips, Tomas Jurco
Good teams put up good amounts of goals and are populated by many high point-getters. But it's a scouts job to pick out the straw that stirs the drink. In Saint John, it seems like it was probably Huberdeau. Not to mention Simon Despres and Stanislav Galiev. I'd be wary of totals from these two forwards that may well deflate when they lose their catalysts.
Jamieson Oleksiak
He's 6'7". Let's admit not all tall guys turn out to be Chara. Some turn out to be Andy Sutton -- if you're even that lucky.
Ty Rattie
Seems like 4th fiddle on his team with some pretty crazy top end talent. Buyer beware.
Brett Ritchie
I know you can't teach size. But can one really teach a 20-goal OHL player to do it at the NHL. I know there are cases where it's been done. But have the Habs really learned nothing from Turner Stevenson, Jason Ward.
As you know, we already highlighted the lessons that the Canadiens and their crack team need to take from their own draft history, combined with that of their rivals. Just in case they don’t have time to read that, we’ll just post the most important message here:
Don’t, for goodness sake, take another defensive defender in the first round!
That out of the way, we can get down to the serious business of the draft. The way I look at it, there are about 5 categories of players to look at for the first round of this draft (No it isn’t C, RW, LW, …). The categories come from
The first category of possible draftees are those that we’ll call Subban substitutes. They aren’t called Subban subs because they will all be as good as Subban – what do you think I’m that good at scouting I can predict NHL readiness from watching a bit of junior? No, they are called Subban subs because the only way we’ll be drafting these players is if we trade PK Subban (or someone of his stature) to the team ahead of us in line who would otherwise take one of them.
The second group of players are aptly called NAFWOPs or Not Available for Weber or Pouliot. Trading the players fans see as expendable may get something, but not these guys. It probably wouldn’t take a Subban to move up, but for all intents and purposes, the Habs aren’t getting a sniff of these NAFWOPs either.
The third category is consensus early picks. These players are highly rated by the media who either a) just watched the Bruins win the Cup and concluded that only a team exactly like the Bruins will ever in again or b) waited until the last minute and couldn’t figure out how to integrate North American and European and Skater and Goalie lists. These are big forwards who scored a lot of goals in the CHL (the minimum cut off for a lot is slipping these days, some guys here scored 20ish). These are players that should be available when the Canadiens pick because a) the media don’t have NHL jobs and b) Brian Burke can’t make all the picks.
The fourth category is the McGuire stunners. These players don’t get mentioned for some reason or another. See category three for media excuses, add drinking while compiling the list. In my opinion, the more stunned Pierre McGuire is by the pick, the better the pick probably is. The Blubbering Blusterer is no clairvoyant.
The fifth and final category is the red flags. This category is entirely determined by me and based on that thorough research I mentioned. The players are unpickable by the Canadiens for reasons of position, over-rating or the fact they have already resorted to the strategy that all slow and non-innovative players take when in a jam – they abandon their reason for being a hockey player by becoming a defensive machine before they even get a sniff of pro hockey.
Subban subs
Not worth spending too much time on these guys really. Primarily because the caliber of prospect that must be traded to get this player is more than likely to be a better prospect on odds than the draft pick himself.
The list here consists of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, Gabriel Landerskog, Jonathan Huberdeau, Sean Couturier, Dougie Hamilton, Ryan Strome and Ryan Murphy.
If any of these players were to be available without trade, or through a cheaper trade, I’d be all for adding them to the fold. Landerskog and Strome fit the bill of what the Canadiens (or any team) could use, Couturier and Huberdeau would be organizational gems, Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson are the kind of guys you make room for, and Hamilton and Murphy are a cut above their peers from the back line (with Murphy being the one I'd go for).
NAFWOPs
Mika Zibanejad, Sven Bartschi, Joel Armia, Mark McNeill all have a lot in common. All forwards. All fit the profile of a scoring forward who may succeed at NHL level. All unlikely to be available by the time the Canadiens pick.
These are the kinds of 9-15 draft picks that make one ask why the Canadiens made the playoffs if they were only going to be stifled in the first round. They make one ask that because players of their scoring ability and general quality are gone at pick 17 if all goes according to plan.
The good news is the NHL is rife with general managers who think their secret revelation is a new and unidentified way to win it all (Thomas Hickey, #4 overall, LA). Usually these GMs win the draft picks above #14 year on year.
So let’s play the game. Let’s say one of these four players slips through the table because someone opts for that 7’ guy and someone wants to impress Pierre McGuire.
If I had my choice for the player to fall to 17, I think I’d go with Joel Armia. Sure, his work ethic is being questioned by the media who watched him play one game at a tournament with lesser players than he, but he put up 18 goals in the Finnish League at age 17 and that’s got to count for something. And, remember how the Habs lost 3 OT games to Boston with Horton and Ryder spoiling the fun. How about this quote then:
"You might have to look for him during some shifts, but then, suddenly, he scores the winner."Goalscorers sometimes need to disappear to do their thing. I certainly wouldn't mind empty shifts if goals flowed freely.
I also think Nathan Beaulieu will be gone by all accounts by pick 17. If he fell to that point, the Canadiens would take him, but it might serve them better to trade down if that happens, even if it brings on the annual wrath of RDS.
Consensus mid-teens
Mark Scheifele
Look, I understand why mock drafts take this guy. There are a lot of lists and he’s high on most. To that I would ask why? In my opinion, he gets points for points, points for being big, points for being a center, and dare I say, points for being from the OHL.
Looking deeper though, despite claims he was on a talentless team, Scheifele still racked up way more assists than goals. 75 points is no OHL record and with the ice time he got, I consider the 22 goals a red flag. I also read that 11 of his goals came down a stretch at the end. While to some that would mean he picked it up in clutch games, one must remember there were no clutch games for Barries, so he actually picked it up in meaningless games. Not one for me.
The Hockey Writers call him the safe pick. Safe picks are for rounds 3/4 in my honest opinion...
Matt Puempel
Small in stature, one gets the idea Puempel got his points for actual play rather than the potential of a big guy.34 goals wasn’t something that turned heads in past seasons, but this season it seems high for the CHL. This worries me somewhat as 34 is closer to 20 than it is to 50. Still, from all accounts he makes his living from scoring goals, but still makes time to get assists. Like Scheifele, he played on a pretty awful team, however, and with a hip injury that raises other questions doesn’t get my nod.
Brandon Saad
Not sold on Brandon either for some reason. He's already garnering comments about his two-way game, which might not be a flag with 40 goals under his belt. With 27, it starts to sound like a bit of an excuse. That said, I could be way wrong about this guy.
Duncan Siemens, Jonas Brodin, Oscar Klefbom, Joe Morrow
I’m sure these guys are all fine fellows and even better defenders. But unless someone in the organization thinks they’d be passing up the next Lidstrom or Niedermayer, I’d advise a pass on this group of Dmen. The Habs need to keep Subban around and hopefully can revitalize Markov. These have to be their bets. Together with a commitment to Weber who has shown good promise, I don’t see the need to abandon hope on finding a scorng forward to take and ever so slightly safer bet based on consensus.
McGuire stunners
Stefan Noesen
This guy isn't on mmost lists, simply because they only go to pick #30. But in a year where so many 25-30 goal guys are in the running, it's a bit of a puzzle how a relatively big OHLer with 34 goals and a 69 point jump for the season wouldn't pip some of the former favourites. Let's just accept he rose from nowhere and some in the rankings racket like to save face more than they like to be objective.
34 goals in 68 games. 77 points. Up from 3 goals last season. Noesen comes from Dallas, so he might not be under their radar. But if he slips to the Canadiens #17, he should get consideration. At the very least the team should insinuate they are going to take him to the Big D and see if Nieuwendyk coughs anything up.
Daniel Catenacci
From all reports, Catenacci translates to speed. The most generous comparisons liken him to Mike Cammalleri because of his speed, his attitude and his stature. After a second playoffs watching Camms, I'd sign another one of him up if I could.
Alexander Khokhlachev
"The first thing that jumps out about Khokhlachev’s game is his heart."A comment like that and 34 goals in his first OHL season, I'm certain this is a classic Russian shy-away. The Canadiens have a chance to be a bit of Russian hub with Markov, Emelin, Kostitsyn and Avtsin. Why not take advantage of the rest of the NHL's reluctance. This guy played in North America already. What more could he have done to prove he wanted to be in the NHL?
Nikita Kucherov
If you don't ever finish low enough to get a high pick, you have to take a chance to get a superstar. Kucherov represents a home run swing. The guy absolutely dominated the MHL, he smashed scoring recoreds at the recent U18 champs, he has potential to be something quite special offensively. I don't think the Canadiens have much to lose by swinging big this year, because at #17 they are already looking at guys that could only muster 20-some goals in junior anyway. If Kucherov is on the radar for this pick, it might be wise, however, to turn the pick into two and take him lower when he'll likely still be available due to his recent KHL: signing.
Tyler Biggs
I'm a bit loathe to put another American college bound kid. We've seen our fair share of these already. But Biggs is legit. He is Big, as his name suggests, and he has a knack for scoring Big goals, if not enormous numbers of them. He has to be on the list for completeness, but he wouldn't be my first choice from these.
Red flags
Boone Jenner
For me his improvement from one year to the next wasn't very impressive and it really does raise the question about how one thinks he'll suddenly become NHL 20-goal material.
Zack Phillips, Tomas Jurco
Good teams put up good amounts of goals and are populated by many high point-getters. But it's a scouts job to pick out the straw that stirs the drink. In Saint John, it seems like it was probably Huberdeau. Not to mention Simon Despres and Stanislav Galiev. I'd be wary of totals from these two forwards that may well deflate when they lose their catalysts.
Jamieson Oleksiak
He's 6'7". Let's admit not all tall guys turn out to be Chara. Some turn out to be Andy Sutton -- if you're even that lucky.
Ty Rattie
Seems like 4th fiddle on his team with some pretty crazy top end talent. Buyer beware.
Brett Ritchie
I know you can't teach size. But can one really teach a 20-goal OHL player to do it at the NHL. I know there are cases where it's been done. But have the Habs really learned nothing from Turner Stevenson, Jason Ward.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Hard-Learned Lessons For Draft Day
Things that I hope the Canadiens have learned about drafting over the past decade:
1) Being more mature 18 isn’t an advantage at age 23
2) Being a defensive forward in junior means a guy doesn’t have the skill to score on junior goalies. Chances you want this guy on your pro team … he’d better play some kinda special defence
3) Defensive defenders come from everywhere. No need to try and find on in the first round.
4) As much as you’d like to trade for St. Louis, Staal, Perry, Ovechkin, Crosby, Sedins, you can’t. Constantly passing on scorers likely means you could end up without any.
5) While the NCAA is nice to bury a player outside the budget, one only needs to take a look at Komisarek’s regular National team duty to know that USA isn’t pumping out the cream of the defensive crop.
6) Better to get 2 players in the top 60 than one after the first 10 pass.
7) Russia hasn’t forgotten how to play hockey just because they’ve forgotten how to sign on to IIHF transfer agreements.
8) If the NHL can’t even reconcile how to mix North American and European players from the same positions together into one list, how do you expect to judge a player’s NHL value against high school opponents in Massachusetts?
9) Organizational needs on the day won’t be organizational needs when the player ripens.
10) OHL is not a dirty word.
11) BCHL stands for Below CHL.
1) Being more mature 18 isn’t an advantage at age 23
2) Being a defensive forward in junior means a guy doesn’t have the skill to score on junior goalies. Chances you want this guy on your pro team … he’d better play some kinda special defence
3) Defensive defenders come from everywhere. No need to try and find on in the first round.
4) As much as you’d like to trade for St. Louis, Staal, Perry, Ovechkin, Crosby, Sedins, you can’t. Constantly passing on scorers likely means you could end up without any.
5) While the NCAA is nice to bury a player outside the budget, one only needs to take a look at Komisarek’s regular National team duty to know that USA isn’t pumping out the cream of the defensive crop.
6) Better to get 2 players in the top 60 than one after the first 10 pass.
7) Russia hasn’t forgotten how to play hockey just because they’ve forgotten how to sign on to IIHF transfer agreements.
8) If the NHL can’t even reconcile how to mix North American and European players from the same positions together into one list, how do you expect to judge a player’s NHL value against high school opponents in Massachusetts?
9) Organizational needs on the day won’t be organizational needs when the player ripens.
10) OHL is not a dirty word.
11) BCHL stands for Below CHL.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Games With Meaning
Once again you and I sit here as winter turns to spring looking ahead to a host of meaningful Canadiens games. Tonight is the first. The Buffalo Sabres are grappling for the playoffs (if you can call 6-6-4 over 14 grappling) and the Habs need more points to achieve any peace of mind.
But it’s not so for everyone.
Down the road in Ottawa, for example, games with meaning expired in January. That’s when they entered the puzzling realm where fans start to accept and even encourage the loss. I recently attended an Ottawa game and will be attending the Habs game in Kanata as well. Watching the post-trade deadline Senators face the Bruins was interesting from an academic point of view, but I can assure you that not many of those fans seem to revel in the clean back pass like I do. By the time the Habs play the Sens in April, it may be that the result means less to both teams. It begs the question: why are people paying the same amount to watch this game as the early season run-ins with everything still on the line.
The teams at the bottom struggle to bring in fans (especially where fans were already scarce) as cheering for the loss is just as easily done without the $100 price tag. Maybe this wouldn’t be so bad if the teams at the top weren’t also playing meaningless games as the season runs down.
Vancouver and Philadelphia are the only two teams that have formally clinched their playoff berths. But there are also several teams that have a 100% chance of making the playoffs if you round up the decimals (Washington has escaped all scenarios in which they could miss thanks to head-to-head games of those chasing).
Few games with meaning
So ten teams with less than 1% chance of making it and 9 teams with a less than 1% chance of missing. With playoffs being the only pressing reason to win a game that suggests that most teams don’t have very much left to play for.
In my opinion, this part of the season is just another thing that is fundamentally wrong with the NHL. I think there’s a problem at the top and at the bottom of the pile.
League champions
To start with, the league’s attitude to the President’s trophy only fuels the fans disdain. 82 games is a long and arduous season for players and fans when the single reward for most teams is berth in the playoffs. Add to that the possibility that a first round loss will completely eclipse any notion of accomplishment. Imagine a first round sweep.
There aren’t many good reasons as to why the league couldn’t do more to elevate the league champion. I am not suggesting that anything like the right to play for the Cup be reinstated as it was in the beginning. There could, however, be ways to honour the winners. Presenting the trophy could be a start. Other possibilities could include making the champs participants in the outdoor game, or the all-star game (and making a trophy for the victors of that as yet meaningless contest). Some sort of hockey champion’s league to start the season (as opposed to random selection for European involvement) might also create interest in hockey that way.
A fan of North American sports will point out that not recognizing accomplishment for the regular season is the norm for all sports. Of course, in doing so, said fan would have to ignore the reality that sport takes place outside of North America too and those leagues routinely find ways to honour two achievements and make them meaningful to fans. They would also be condoning the 162-game debacle that leads to months of meaningless baseball games every year.
Why must we cling to a system that was made for 6 teams, when we can clearly see the problem that a single honour to go around for 30 teams is creating disinterest? Why must the NHL copy the NFL when the difference between 16 games and 82 games is so clear?
Lottery winners
The same could be said for the bottom. As I was discussing the Senators last night with my father-in-law, I needed to explain why the teams missing the playoffs must now attempt to lose as many games as possible. We both agreed this gave fans a very good reason for their apathy.
Of course, this doesn’t need to be the way forward either.
The top pick to bottom team system is in place to allow recycling of teams from top to bottom. It works in that regard. But in 10 years when Crosby and Malkin are on their last legs, will we again be staring down the threat of one of the NHL’s most legitimate markets losing its team? The more Pittsburgh try to win now, the more likely it seems we will.
And what for? So that teams from far less viable markets can take a turn at the top?
The solution might need to be creative, but there could certainly be a way to make missing the playoffs on a tie-break (like Florida has done a couple of times recently) worth more than trading away all NHL talent in March like that team did this year. It’s not every day that the Toronto Maple Leafs stumble on viable solutions to problems, but they may be onto something with their first round swap – winning to prevent a rival’s reinforcement seems to entertain.
At the end of the day, fans cheer for the goal, the save, the win. Not many are so forward-looking to be cheering for the increased odds of nabbing Couturier. Certainly not when they’ve paid to watch a hockey game. As a fan willing to pay for a late season game this year, but beginning to question, I can speak to this.
Want to know why hockey is sucking air in Florida and Atlanta. Want to know why Colorado failed before and could just as easily lose interest again? Want to know why Columbus is no longer selling out? Look no further than meaningful games. In addition to showing some iota of concern for player safety, I think this sham leadership has to address this situation where meaningless games make up 15% of the schedule.
So as Toronto face Minnesota to decide Boston’s draft position, enjoy the game tonight.
(Note: Of course I never expect a league run by the current team – who can’t even muster enough interest to deal with serious injury – to do anything. It’s still something I think needs to be addressed by the next competent guy they get in a leadership position)
But it’s not so for everyone.
Down the road in Ottawa, for example, games with meaning expired in January. That’s when they entered the puzzling realm where fans start to accept and even encourage the loss. I recently attended an Ottawa game and will be attending the Habs game in Kanata as well. Watching the post-trade deadline Senators face the Bruins was interesting from an academic point of view, but I can assure you that not many of those fans seem to revel in the clean back pass like I do. By the time the Habs play the Sens in April, it may be that the result means less to both teams. It begs the question: why are people paying the same amount to watch this game as the early season run-ins with everything still on the line.
The teams at the bottom struggle to bring in fans (especially where fans were already scarce) as cheering for the loss is just as easily done without the $100 price tag. Maybe this wouldn’t be so bad if the teams at the top weren’t also playing meaningless games as the season runs down.
Vancouver and Philadelphia are the only two teams that have formally clinched their playoff berths. But there are also several teams that have a 100% chance of making the playoffs if you round up the decimals (Washington has escaped all scenarios in which they could miss thanks to head-to-head games of those chasing).
Few games with meaning
So ten teams with less than 1% chance of making it and 9 teams with a less than 1% chance of missing. With playoffs being the only pressing reason to win a game that suggests that most teams don’t have very much left to play for.
In my opinion, this part of the season is just another thing that is fundamentally wrong with the NHL. I think there’s a problem at the top and at the bottom of the pile.
League champions
To start with, the league’s attitude to the President’s trophy only fuels the fans disdain. 82 games is a long and arduous season for players and fans when the single reward for most teams is berth in the playoffs. Add to that the possibility that a first round loss will completely eclipse any notion of accomplishment. Imagine a first round sweep.
There aren’t many good reasons as to why the league couldn’t do more to elevate the league champion. I am not suggesting that anything like the right to play for the Cup be reinstated as it was in the beginning. There could, however, be ways to honour the winners. Presenting the trophy could be a start. Other possibilities could include making the champs participants in the outdoor game, or the all-star game (and making a trophy for the victors of that as yet meaningless contest). Some sort of hockey champion’s league to start the season (as opposed to random selection for European involvement) might also create interest in hockey that way.
A fan of North American sports will point out that not recognizing accomplishment for the regular season is the norm for all sports. Of course, in doing so, said fan would have to ignore the reality that sport takes place outside of North America too and those leagues routinely find ways to honour two achievements and make them meaningful to fans. They would also be condoning the 162-game debacle that leads to months of meaningless baseball games every year.
Why must we cling to a system that was made for 6 teams, when we can clearly see the problem that a single honour to go around for 30 teams is creating disinterest? Why must the NHL copy the NFL when the difference between 16 games and 82 games is so clear?
Lottery winners
The same could be said for the bottom. As I was discussing the Senators last night with my father-in-law, I needed to explain why the teams missing the playoffs must now attempt to lose as many games as possible. We both agreed this gave fans a very good reason for their apathy.
Of course, this doesn’t need to be the way forward either.
The top pick to bottom team system is in place to allow recycling of teams from top to bottom. It works in that regard. But in 10 years when Crosby and Malkin are on their last legs, will we again be staring down the threat of one of the NHL’s most legitimate markets losing its team? The more Pittsburgh try to win now, the more likely it seems we will.
And what for? So that teams from far less viable markets can take a turn at the top?
The solution might need to be creative, but there could certainly be a way to make missing the playoffs on a tie-break (like Florida has done a couple of times recently) worth more than trading away all NHL talent in March like that team did this year. It’s not every day that the Toronto Maple Leafs stumble on viable solutions to problems, but they may be onto something with their first round swap – winning to prevent a rival’s reinforcement seems to entertain.
At the end of the day, fans cheer for the goal, the save, the win. Not many are so forward-looking to be cheering for the increased odds of nabbing Couturier. Certainly not when they’ve paid to watch a hockey game. As a fan willing to pay for a late season game this year, but beginning to question, I can speak to this.
Want to know why hockey is sucking air in Florida and Atlanta. Want to know why Colorado failed before and could just as easily lose interest again? Want to know why Columbus is no longer selling out? Look no further than meaningful games. In addition to showing some iota of concern for player safety, I think this sham leadership has to address this situation where meaningless games make up 15% of the schedule.
So as Toronto face Minnesota to decide Boston’s draft position, enjoy the game tonight.
(Note: Of course I never expect a league run by the current team – who can’t even muster enough interest to deal with serious injury – to do anything. It’s still something I think needs to be addressed by the next competent guy they get in a leadership position)
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Canadiens Deadline Assets
Votes In On Draft Picks and Non-Pros
Gonna take a half-way poll on this, as the trade deadline creeping closer. Still enough response to feel fan sentiment on these assets.
This list is interesting as it starts to show how precious Canadiens fans are with their assets. In terms of trade now, we're talking about late picks, and even those assets people seem to be willing to give away are only in the round 3+ range. I assume that if I had not pooled 3 and 4, 3 would be higher and four would be lower. Bennett is a player we don't know or hear about, so it's not too surprising he's in the tradeable book.
In the land of having to give to get, there won't be much available for teams that are precious about all their decent draft picks and all the players that are deemed worthy high choices. We'll see how people feel about Hamilton prospects.
Once again, those who haven't voted and still wish to, the poll is still open (I will keep updating the stats, perhaps to publish again closer to the deadline):
This list is interesting as it starts to show how precious Canadiens fans are with their assets. In terms of trade now, we're talking about late picks, and even those assets people seem to be willing to give away are only in the round 3+ range. I assume that if I had not pooled 3 and 4, 3 would be higher and four would be lower. Bennett is a player we don't know or hear about, so it's not too surprising he's in the tradeable book.
In the land of having to give to get, there won't be much available for teams that are precious about all their decent draft picks and all the players that are deemed worthy high choices. We'll see how people feel about Hamilton prospects.
Once again, those who haven't voted and still wish to, the poll is still open (I will keep updating the stats, perhaps to publish again closer to the deadline):
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Canadiens Deadline Assets
Draft Picks and Non-Pros
Had some great voting on the current players (Forwards, Defence and Goalies).
A team like the Canadiens, if buying aren't likely to find many takers for their slag without using sweeteners like recent and future draft picks. This vote is where we get to see what kind of fans you really are.
A team like the Canadiens, if buying aren't likely to find many takers for their slag without using sweeteners like recent and future draft picks. This vote is where we get to see what kind of fans you really are.
Tuesday, February 08, 2011
Pierre Gauthier''s Year
Apparently today marks the first anniversary of Pierre Gauthier's time as the man officially in charge of the Montreal Canadiens.
Round and about, it seems to be the thing to give some kind of retrospective on him. At first, i thought I had no interest in doing this. That was until I read the glowing reviews he's been getting. I think the internet is calling for some balance.
Trades
The place everyone seems to start is with trades, so I'll start there too. Gauthier has made a total of nine of them in a year. In doing so, he has traded 5 players that were on last year's roster as well as a first, 3 second round picks and a 5th rounder with one prospect for two players on the current roster, 6 prospects, 2 free agents that are gone now, a first rounder, a 4th and a 5th.
Here are the trades:
1) 2nd round pick (TBD) in 2011 traded to Florida Panthers for Dominic Moore
2) Matt D'Agostini traded to St. Louis Blues for Aaron Palushaj
3) Jaroslav Halak traded to St. Louis Blues for Lars Eller and Ian Schultz
4) 1st round pick (Mark Visentin) in 2010 and a 2nd round pick (Oscar Lindberg) in 2010 traded to Phoenix Coyotes for a 1st round pick (Jarred Tinordi) in 2010 and a 4th Round pick (Mark MacMillan) in 2010
5) Sergei Kostitsyn and future considerations traded to Nashville Predators for Dan Ellis, Dustin Boyd and future considerations
6) Cedrick Desjardins traded to Tampa Bay Lightning for Karri Ramo
7) Ryan O'Byrne traded to Colorado Avalanche for Michael Bournival
8) 2nd round pick (TBD) in 2011 and a conditional 5th round pick (TBD) in 2012 traded to New York Islanders for James Wisniewski. 2nd round pick was NHL compensation for 1st round pick David Fischer not being signed
9) Maxim Lapierre traded to Anaheim Ducks for Brett Festerling and a 5th Round pick (TBD) in 2012
Trades 2) and 6) I'll call neutral. Basic prospect for prospect swaps. Factors like age and popularity of the players might play into this over time.
Trade 1) was a rental that paid off. So that's a victory. A 2nd round pick is steep for Dominic Moore. But a second round pick is cheap for a forward that significantly helps your team knock off two powerhouses and make the best playoff run the franchise has had in near two decades.
Trade 7) is another win for me. O'Byrne was essentially a dead-end prospect. Subban and Weber progressing properly made his worth to the team drop. Add in Picard who is at least as good, if not as big and there wasn't much place for Ryan in the future. Turning this guy into a potentially very exciting Quebec-born first rounder (who narrowly missed making team Canada) was very good for a Canadiens GM.
Trades 5) and 9) are widely viewed as addition by subtraction. As is standard procedure in these trades, the GM went to another conference. The problem is addition by subtraction is ultimately still subtraction. These can't really be viewed as wins, because other GMs have done more with less value. Gauthier needed to be more alert to the good trades out there and hold his cards. Andrej Meszaros was had for a 2nd rounder, Chicago was dumping players like Andrew Ladd. Even if we throw that out the window, the Canadiens GM in making these trades is just continuing the lazy tradition of jettisoning problems as opposed to facing them. 50+ point Ribeiro and 40+ point Grabovski join Kostistyn on the list of talent thrown away of late. Even though I fully subscribe to the idea that these players needed to go, I cannot endorse trading players for just anything. Talent has to be either managed or managed until value can be found in return. These trades are in the needs improvement column.
Trade 8) was a clear win. Wisniewski is a good fit and just what the team needed at the time. The price was OK considering the rental was long, and better if you consider he's auditioning for a future place.
The last two trades are examples of trades gone wrong.
The trade up for Jarred Tonirodi was a miscalculation, I think. For one thing there were more than 5 players of Tinordi's standard out there. And you know how I feel about taking defensive defencemen in the first round. To spend a second rounder for a fourth to get one on top of wasting the pick on one is pretty poor. I understand the scouts liked him and that's how it worked. But tell me, didn't the scouts see anything in say Tyler Toffoli who now has 44 goals in 50 OHL games (47th)? Or other second rounders who they might have been able to take as well as Tinordi if they risked him falling?
The Halak trade is being viewed at the moment through some mighty rosy glasses. From all the comments, you'd think that Halak was made of kryptonite to halt Price's superman. Let's assume for a moment that they are in fact separate people, and only made of organic matter that doesn't emit debilitating auras. Price if was going to be good, was going to be good. Halak had just come off an outstanding playoffs that laid to rest a lot of the thought at the time that his previous two seasons were flashes in the pan. He was an asset.
So trading an asset. This is stuff to get excited about? Should be. Could be. Except that Gauthier decided to cut off his own legs. He decided that it was best to trade Halak before signing him to a contract. This decision meant that a) Halak was worth less and b) Price was worth more. Now we can argue about Eller until the cows come home,and Price's contract looks like every good value now. Heck, Halak's record makes this look rosy too. But all of that misses the point. The GM needed to turn Halak into something much more valuable than Eller and Schultz. If Gautheir really believed that he was picking the right goalie, he needed to open this up to the Eastern conference, where goalies were most required. If the trade wasn't there at that time, he should have signed Halak and played salary games like the two teams that just made the Stanley Cup final did all last season.
This was a mediocre trade with extremely bad timing.
Overall, I have Gauthier down as an average trader who seems like he might be getting better (Bournival, Wisniewski). If trading was all there was to being a GM, then he'd deserve a pat of encouragement. If you're polar opposite on that Halak trade, I can see where the rave reviews are coming from.
Free agents
In terms of new faces, Gauthier did OK last summer. Basically, he added Alex Auld, Alexandre Picard and Jeff Halpern. None of these signings sets to world on fire. Yet none creates a salary mess either. Considering they've all played well, I'd say it's a good record.
If there's a criticism to be levelled with regard to free agents, it has to be about the resigning of the team's own. Pouliot stands out, since he got a 50% raise despite basically taking 25 games off at the end of last season. Halak wasn't signed (before the playoffs?) and we know what problems I think that caused and Price got a very hefty raise despite having 18 pretty average months on a contract that was already paying over the odds.
Again in retrospect these things look OK. I can't rely entirely on retrospect. When a player plays badly, he should not be rewarded with a hefty raise. it sets dangerous precedents for when a) that player plays well and b) other players come off below average seasons. Contract structure is all about internal precedents and one can only rely on so much good will from players who wish to stay. These two contracts netting a few hundred thousand more than they should have will likely mean the loss of a real roster player this summer.
Man management
Perhaps man management is entirely the duty of the GM, but ultimately he's the man who pushes the buttons and he can tell the coaches what he wants them to do as their boss.
A big red light went up this January when Andrei Kostitsyn asked for a meeting with Jacques Martin and finally found out what the coach wanted.
This is indicative of a problem that we thought had gone the way of Carbo. An environment where players and personalities are being managed on a daily basis. It's a problem. It's a problem because players like the ones I mention above as additions by subtraction become those players worth subtracting in these environments.
In a league as competitive for talent as the NHL, it's crazy to allow an environment that consistently puts up these problem players to persist. We've lost the talent held in Ribeiro, Grabovksi, Sergei and Lapierre for little in return, and it looks precarious in Andrei Kostitsyn's case.
I understand that Jacques Martin is a grizzled vet who is set in his ways, and in many ways holds more clout and credibility than Gauthier. However, Gauthier is the man charged with managing this group of talent. When sweeping problems under the rug until a trade comes up is the standard operating procedure, it's the GM's duty to step in and speak for the talent assets of the club.
I was willing to assume this was taken care of. That is until Andrei's recent revelations. Gauthier must do better here. Else more talent (talented guys do tend o have egos sometimes) will pass on by.
Results
ON results, Gauthier looks a star. The team, fighting for the playoffs when he took over, made it there and put in a great run. This season is the team's best since 2008, and probably better when injuries are tallied. Considering that, it's been the best 12 months (Feb to Feb) for the Habs since 1993. Gauthier is reaping the good favour for this in his reviews today.
Problem is, much of this has little to do with Gauthier's reign as sole man at the helm. The core of the team was put together with Gainey in charge (or so we thought). Carey Price is better because of goaltending coaches and better defence, not that contract or Halak leaving.
Gautheir is the GM of a very good team, but let's not make the mistake in thinking that he's the very good GM of an NHL team.
February is a telling time for a GM, as it's one of the few months many of them do any work. Trades made in the next month, or trades no made will give us a fuller picture on Gauthier. Another draft will reveal more about his steel and judgment, as will the contract season.
A year is far too little time to judge a GM properly. I've been hard, but not down on Gauthier. I felt some of the stuff glossed over by others needed to be brought to light. Until now, I'd say he's been adequate, doing little to indicate he'll separate from the pack. It could be worse. But in a thirty team league with only one team winning the prize each year, being adequate might not be enough.
Round and about, it seems to be the thing to give some kind of retrospective on him. At first, i thought I had no interest in doing this. That was until I read the glowing reviews he's been getting. I think the internet is calling for some balance.
Trades
The place everyone seems to start is with trades, so I'll start there too. Gauthier has made a total of nine of them in a year. In doing so, he has traded 5 players that were on last year's roster as well as a first, 3 second round picks and a 5th rounder with one prospect for two players on the current roster, 6 prospects, 2 free agents that are gone now, a first rounder, a 4th and a 5th.
Here are the trades:
1) 2nd round pick (TBD) in 2011 traded to Florida Panthers for Dominic Moore
2) Matt D'Agostini traded to St. Louis Blues for Aaron Palushaj
3) Jaroslav Halak traded to St. Louis Blues for Lars Eller and Ian Schultz
4) 1st round pick (Mark Visentin) in 2010 and a 2nd round pick (Oscar Lindberg) in 2010 traded to Phoenix Coyotes for a 1st round pick (Jarred Tinordi) in 2010 and a 4th Round pick (Mark MacMillan) in 2010
5) Sergei Kostitsyn and future considerations traded to Nashville Predators for Dan Ellis, Dustin Boyd and future considerations
6) Cedrick Desjardins traded to Tampa Bay Lightning for Karri Ramo
7) Ryan O'Byrne traded to Colorado Avalanche for Michael Bournival
8) 2nd round pick (TBD) in 2011 and a conditional 5th round pick (TBD) in 2012 traded to New York Islanders for James Wisniewski. 2nd round pick was NHL compensation for 1st round pick David Fischer not being signed
9) Maxim Lapierre traded to Anaheim Ducks for Brett Festerling and a 5th Round pick (TBD) in 2012
Trades 2) and 6) I'll call neutral. Basic prospect for prospect swaps. Factors like age and popularity of the players might play into this over time.
Trade 1) was a rental that paid off. So that's a victory. A 2nd round pick is steep for Dominic Moore. But a second round pick is cheap for a forward that significantly helps your team knock off two powerhouses and make the best playoff run the franchise has had in near two decades.
Trade 7) is another win for me. O'Byrne was essentially a dead-end prospect. Subban and Weber progressing properly made his worth to the team drop. Add in Picard who is at least as good, if not as big and there wasn't much place for Ryan in the future. Turning this guy into a potentially very exciting Quebec-born first rounder (who narrowly missed making team Canada) was very good for a Canadiens GM.
Trades 5) and 9) are widely viewed as addition by subtraction. As is standard procedure in these trades, the GM went to another conference. The problem is addition by subtraction is ultimately still subtraction. These can't really be viewed as wins, because other GMs have done more with less value. Gauthier needed to be more alert to the good trades out there and hold his cards. Andrej Meszaros was had for a 2nd rounder, Chicago was dumping players like Andrew Ladd. Even if we throw that out the window, the Canadiens GM in making these trades is just continuing the lazy tradition of jettisoning problems as opposed to facing them. 50+ point Ribeiro and 40+ point Grabovski join Kostistyn on the list of talent thrown away of late. Even though I fully subscribe to the idea that these players needed to go, I cannot endorse trading players for just anything. Talent has to be either managed or managed until value can be found in return. These trades are in the needs improvement column.
Trade 8) was a clear win. Wisniewski is a good fit and just what the team needed at the time. The price was OK considering the rental was long, and better if you consider he's auditioning for a future place.
The last two trades are examples of trades gone wrong.
The trade up for Jarred Tonirodi was a miscalculation, I think. For one thing there were more than 5 players of Tinordi's standard out there. And you know how I feel about taking defensive defencemen in the first round. To spend a second rounder for a fourth to get one on top of wasting the pick on one is pretty poor. I understand the scouts liked him and that's how it worked. But tell me, didn't the scouts see anything in say Tyler Toffoli who now has 44 goals in 50 OHL games (47th)? Or other second rounders who they might have been able to take as well as Tinordi if they risked him falling?
The Halak trade is being viewed at the moment through some mighty rosy glasses. From all the comments, you'd think that Halak was made of kryptonite to halt Price's superman. Let's assume for a moment that they are in fact separate people, and only made of organic matter that doesn't emit debilitating auras. Price if was going to be good, was going to be good. Halak had just come off an outstanding playoffs that laid to rest a lot of the thought at the time that his previous two seasons were flashes in the pan. He was an asset.
So trading an asset. This is stuff to get excited about? Should be. Could be. Except that Gauthier decided to cut off his own legs. He decided that it was best to trade Halak before signing him to a contract. This decision meant that a) Halak was worth less and b) Price was worth more. Now we can argue about Eller until the cows come home,and Price's contract looks like every good value now. Heck, Halak's record makes this look rosy too. But all of that misses the point. The GM needed to turn Halak into something much more valuable than Eller and Schultz. If Gautheir really believed that he was picking the right goalie, he needed to open this up to the Eastern conference, where goalies were most required. If the trade wasn't there at that time, he should have signed Halak and played salary games like the two teams that just made the Stanley Cup final did all last season.
This was a mediocre trade with extremely bad timing.
Overall, I have Gauthier down as an average trader who seems like he might be getting better (Bournival, Wisniewski). If trading was all there was to being a GM, then he'd deserve a pat of encouragement. If you're polar opposite on that Halak trade, I can see where the rave reviews are coming from.
Free agents
In terms of new faces, Gauthier did OK last summer. Basically, he added Alex Auld, Alexandre Picard and Jeff Halpern. None of these signings sets to world on fire. Yet none creates a salary mess either. Considering they've all played well, I'd say it's a good record.
If there's a criticism to be levelled with regard to free agents, it has to be about the resigning of the team's own. Pouliot stands out, since he got a 50% raise despite basically taking 25 games off at the end of last season. Halak wasn't signed (before the playoffs?) and we know what problems I think that caused and Price got a very hefty raise despite having 18 pretty average months on a contract that was already paying over the odds.
Again in retrospect these things look OK. I can't rely entirely on retrospect. When a player plays badly, he should not be rewarded with a hefty raise. it sets dangerous precedents for when a) that player plays well and b) other players come off below average seasons. Contract structure is all about internal precedents and one can only rely on so much good will from players who wish to stay. These two contracts netting a few hundred thousand more than they should have will likely mean the loss of a real roster player this summer.
Man management
Perhaps man management is entirely the duty of the GM, but ultimately he's the man who pushes the buttons and he can tell the coaches what he wants them to do as their boss.
A big red light went up this January when Andrei Kostitsyn asked for a meeting with Jacques Martin and finally found out what the coach wanted.
This is indicative of a problem that we thought had gone the way of Carbo. An environment where players and personalities are being managed on a daily basis. It's a problem. It's a problem because players like the ones I mention above as additions by subtraction become those players worth subtracting in these environments.
In a league as competitive for talent as the NHL, it's crazy to allow an environment that consistently puts up these problem players to persist. We've lost the talent held in Ribeiro, Grabovksi, Sergei and Lapierre for little in return, and it looks precarious in Andrei Kostitsyn's case.
I understand that Jacques Martin is a grizzled vet who is set in his ways, and in many ways holds more clout and credibility than Gauthier. However, Gauthier is the man charged with managing this group of talent. When sweeping problems under the rug until a trade comes up is the standard operating procedure, it's the GM's duty to step in and speak for the talent assets of the club.
I was willing to assume this was taken care of. That is until Andrei's recent revelations. Gauthier must do better here. Else more talent (talented guys do tend o have egos sometimes) will pass on by.
Results
ON results, Gauthier looks a star. The team, fighting for the playoffs when he took over, made it there and put in a great run. This season is the team's best since 2008, and probably better when injuries are tallied. Considering that, it's been the best 12 months (Feb to Feb) for the Habs since 1993. Gauthier is reaping the good favour for this in his reviews today.
Problem is, much of this has little to do with Gauthier's reign as sole man at the helm. The core of the team was put together with Gainey in charge (or so we thought). Carey Price is better because of goaltending coaches and better defence, not that contract or Halak leaving.
Gautheir is the GM of a very good team, but let's not make the mistake in thinking that he's the very good GM of an NHL team.
February is a telling time for a GM, as it's one of the few months many of them do any work. Trades made in the next month, or trades no made will give us a fuller picture on Gauthier. Another draft will reveal more about his steel and judgment, as will the contract season.
A year is far too little time to judge a GM properly. I've been hard, but not down on Gauthier. I felt some of the stuff glossed over by others needed to be brought to light. Until now, I'd say he's been adequate, doing little to indicate he'll separate from the pack. It could be worse. But in a thirty team league with only one team winning the prize each year, being adequate might not be enough.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Draft Odds
Will Carey Price Escape Last Goalie Picked Scenario?
When the NHL announced that it was to create the All-Star teams for the Annual Classic by a live draft, the first thought in most peoples' minds was:
"Who will have the shame of being the last standing"
To soften the blow to the 6th goalie and the last defenceman taken, the league put in some rules to ensure these were picked by an earlier deadline. (They also softened the blow to the least deserving forward, er defenceman, when they made him an assistant captain with exemption from the draft)
But guess what. someone will still have to be picked last. What's more, with the use of cunning and guile we can all figure out who the last defender and goalie picked were anyway.
As Canadiens fans, we don't have the luxury of being from a city in the US where the NHL is really trying to promote itself right now, so we only have on representative at the game.
Carey price nearly won the write in ballots, but the always humble Penguins fans stuffed the boxes for their goalie before Christmas when his stats were so Un-Star. Carey made it anyway, either on merit or because every team has to have one representative -- you tell me.
In any case, what this all means is that just about the only reason to watch any of the festivities this weekend for the hardcore Habs fan is to see where Carey price will be selected. It should give a new barometer on Price -- what opposing players think of him.
Mock draft results
Ahead of the actual draft, one of the most popular things to do for people with 3 minutes to spare is to do a mock draft and publish it in their newspaper or on their web page. In these drafts, the columnists either pick who they'd select (credible?) or pretend to be Staal and Lidtsrom and pick that way (less credible?).
In order to get an idea of the odds for Carey, I had a browse through about 9 mock drafts to see where he stood (NHL I, NHL III, TSN, Cgy Herald, Can Press, SI, SN, Broadstreet Hockey).
At this point, I'd have to say that Carey Price is the odds on favourite to be selected with the very last pick of a goaltender. The chips seem to fall mostly this way:
1) Cam Ward
Those pretending to be Staal all took him first. Given that Staal is the one picking, it seems plausible that he might go for Ward.
7 first, 1 second, 1 fourth (never after Price)
2) Tim Thomas
The best goaltender in the league this year (and over the past few years) gets relegated by Ward, but no further.
2 first, 4 second, 3 third (once after Price -- TSN)
3) Jonas Hiller
The best save percentage over the last few years, a solid and consistent bet is recognized as such.
1 second, 3 third, 2 fourth, 3 fifth (twice after Price)
4) Marc-Andre Fleury
Having to earn a selection without an internet vote may prove harder for MAF. The pundits knock him down the few notches his career stats deserve.
3 third, 3 fourth, 2 fifth, 1 sixth (twice after Price)
5) Henrik Lundqvist
Lidstrom is Swedish, and Lundqvist is pretty reliable to a standard.
2 second, 1 fourth, 4 fifth, 2 sixth (thrice after Price)
6) Carey Price
One big fan in Darren Dreger, but also openly mocked by some fantasy drafters. He was the clear last choice form the limited selection here.
1 second, 2 fourth, 6 sixth
On form
On form alone, Carey would probably fare a bit better.
This season, he is tied for fifth among the All-Star goalies in save percentage, with 0.920, good for 13th in the NHL (tied with Ward). Carey's been good, but the league standard has gone up. He's been better at keeping the goals down, as he's 9th leaguwide in that regard (2.36) and better than both Hiller (2.50) and Ward (2.70). So let's say if this game wasn't in Carolina, then Carey would be well ahead of Cam. Then again, if it wasn't in Carolina, how would Shanahan explain Ward over Pavelec or Rinne?
If we take a regular season only view and remove playoff accolades and blushes, then Carey is also slightly better than both Ward and Fleury for a career.
Sorry folks, but unless this game is suddenly moved to a different venue, it looks like GAA numbers won't be enough to save Carey's uneasy stand until the 10th round of this draft.
If there's something we've learned about Carey in his short career, however, it's that thinking he has something to prove is a better mode than thinking he's proved something already. As far as the Habs go, it may be good for Price to add a little chip to his shoulder for the next time he faces Staal, or Richards, or St. Louis.
"Who will have the shame of being the last standing"
To soften the blow to the 6th goalie and the last defenceman taken, the league put in some rules to ensure these were picked by an earlier deadline. (They also softened the blow to the least deserving forward, er defenceman, when they made him an assistant captain with exemption from the draft)
But guess what. someone will still have to be picked last. What's more, with the use of cunning and guile we can all figure out who the last defender and goalie picked were anyway.
As Canadiens fans, we don't have the luxury of being from a city in the US where the NHL is really trying to promote itself right now, so we only have on representative at the game.
Carey price nearly won the write in ballots, but the always humble Penguins fans stuffed the boxes for their goalie before Christmas when his stats were so Un-Star. Carey made it anyway, either on merit or because every team has to have one representative -- you tell me.
In any case, what this all means is that just about the only reason to watch any of the festivities this weekend for the hardcore Habs fan is to see where Carey price will be selected. It should give a new barometer on Price -- what opposing players think of him.
Mock draft results
Ahead of the actual draft, one of the most popular things to do for people with 3 minutes to spare is to do a mock draft and publish it in their newspaper or on their web page. In these drafts, the columnists either pick who they'd select (credible?) or pretend to be Staal and Lidtsrom and pick that way (less credible?).
In order to get an idea of the odds for Carey, I had a browse through about 9 mock drafts to see where he stood (NHL I, NHL III, TSN, Cgy Herald, Can Press, SI, SN, Broadstreet Hockey).
At this point, I'd have to say that Carey Price is the odds on favourite to be selected with the very last pick of a goaltender. The chips seem to fall mostly this way:
1) Cam Ward
Those pretending to be Staal all took him first. Given that Staal is the one picking, it seems plausible that he might go for Ward.
7 first, 1 second, 1 fourth (never after Price)
2) Tim Thomas
The best goaltender in the league this year (and over the past few years) gets relegated by Ward, but no further.
2 first, 4 second, 3 third (once after Price -- TSN)
3) Jonas Hiller
The best save percentage over the last few years, a solid and consistent bet is recognized as such.
1 second, 3 third, 2 fourth, 3 fifth (twice after Price)
4) Marc-Andre Fleury
Having to earn a selection without an internet vote may prove harder for MAF. The pundits knock him down the few notches his career stats deserve.
3 third, 3 fourth, 2 fifth, 1 sixth (twice after Price)
5) Henrik Lundqvist
Lidstrom is Swedish, and Lundqvist is pretty reliable to a standard.
2 second, 1 fourth, 4 fifth, 2 sixth (thrice after Price)
6) Carey Price
One big fan in Darren Dreger, but also openly mocked by some fantasy drafters. He was the clear last choice form the limited selection here.
1 second, 2 fourth, 6 sixth
On form
On form alone, Carey would probably fare a bit better.
This season, he is tied for fifth among the All-Star goalies in save percentage, with 0.920, good for 13th in the NHL (tied with Ward). Carey's been good, but the league standard has gone up. He's been better at keeping the goals down, as he's 9th leaguwide in that regard (2.36) and better than both Hiller (2.50) and Ward (2.70). So let's say if this game wasn't in Carolina, then Carey would be well ahead of Cam. Then again, if it wasn't in Carolina, how would Shanahan explain Ward over Pavelec or Rinne?
If we take a regular season only view and remove playoff accolades and blushes, then Carey is also slightly better than both Ward and Fleury for a career.
Sorry folks, but unless this game is suddenly moved to a different venue, it looks like GAA numbers won't be enough to save Carey's uneasy stand until the 10th round of this draft.
If there's something we've learned about Carey in his short career, however, it's that thinking he has something to prove is a better mode than thinking he's proved something already. As far as the Habs go, it may be good for Price to add a little chip to his shoulder for the next time he faces Staal, or Richards, or St. Louis.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
The Flyers Success Story
Building Tips For The Habs
The Canadiens and the Flyers meet for the fourth time this season. This time, the Stanley Cup finalists sit on top of the NHL (tied with Vancouver) and are doing it with offense.
The game promises to be a good one (they often are in this rivalry), but aside from that, it’s a chance for Canadiens fans to glimpse a very well-put together NHL outfit for the last time in the regular season. Why well put together?
It’s been noted here before, and elsewhere, that balance has been a key with the Flyers. Their top three centres on some nights are Daniel Briere, Jeff Carter and Mike Richards. All first round picks, all having great seasons. Their wings are just as deep with Claude Giroux (the envy of a province), Scott Hartnell, Ville Leino, James van Riemsdyk and Nikolai Zherdev.
Surely a team like this would suffer at the back? Nope. Pronger, Timonen, Carle, Meszaros, Coburn and O’Donnell at its healthful best.
It’s a line-up with oodles of pre-professional pedigree and experience (10 first rounders) to go with their recently gained Stanley Cup teeth.
When one looks at this team, one has to wonder how Philadelphia came out on top over Atlanta, Florida, Islanders, and other perennial lottery seekers. They’ve had their high first rounders (Pitkanen, van Riemsdyk), but Philly has built this group through hard work, some good drafting and a commitment to a formula. I think there are some good lessons for Montreal managers here:
1) Big draft coming – be ready
2003 was one of the most talent laden drafts in the history of the NHL. There’s hardly a player drafted in that first round who hasn’t played in the NHL. It has more than its fair share of stars. Montreal media will never tire of telling us about how Andrei Kostitsyn (picked 10th) could have been Jeff Carter, or Mike Richards, or Zach Parise. Philly was one of a few teams that positioned themselves superbly for this draft. Prior to it taking place, they managed to turn Daymond Langkow into a first rounder from Phoenix. In doing so, they nabbed the #11 pick. In addition, they accumulated 7 picks in the top 3 rounds. Doing this affords a team with the freedom to cater to more scouts and take chances, while leaving those annoyingly unsuccessful hole-filling picks for later rounds.
2006 was the same story, deep draft and Philly was there with a boatload of picks. I’m not sure the Flyers go for Giroux at that time in the first round (their D was a big, big weakness) without the surety of 5 picks in the first 3 rounds.
Montreal’s done an OK job of this in the past (and 2003 and 2006 were pretty good hauls for them too), but this lesson just needs to be drilled in a little more.
2) Draft forwards, acquire defencemen
The best forwards are young, fast and dynamic. The best defencemen are old wise and efficient. It’s right there for NHL GMs to see, yet some still insist on picking defensive defencemen in early rounds (Komisarek, Fischer, Tinordi).
Philly has about 8 dynamic scoring forwards, any or all of which could score 30 goals. Add 9-goal Nodl and that’s nine. Of the nine, 4 are Philly first rounders, Nodl is a second rounder. Yes they added Briere, Leino and Zherdev through a variety of means, but their core is from their own scouting and commitment.
The contrast is their defence. Pronger (trade and sign), Timonen (trade and sign), Coburn (trade), Meszaros (trade), Carle (trade), O’Donnell (sign). Not a draft pick there.
Since the Pitkanen choice in 2002, Philly has had 6 first round picks. 5 were forwards. 6 times in 8 drafts their first selection was a forward. The Habs are all over the map in their first round strategy. Scoring has been a need for as long as I can remember (2008 was a blip, I admit) and the team is still drafting big Dmen.
3) Don’t be precious about prospects
Philly has had its fair share of name prospects pass through over the years. Once they may have been precious about them, but their recent attitude seems to treat them like assets until they are established. Pitkanen keeps getting mentioned and he was one. He was turned into Lupul, essentially. Other prospects that have been leveraged include Upshall, Sbisa and Lupul himself. A sentimentalist might have kept these and missed the opportunity their trading presented.
Montreal fans get very precious about prospects. Some still lament McDonagh and Valentenko. No one wants to throw away a prospect in a bad trade, but holding onto an average prospect may leave you with an average team.
4) Salary cap, schmalary cap
I’ve said cap space is overrated. Philly walks the walk. They pay the price for big parts of a team and they often go very close or over the cap. On at least one occasion, they’ve had to call in amateurs to avoid actually exceeding the payroll limit.
With penalties for going over so slack, and opportunities to bury salary in long recoveries from injury, it seems one way to create good depth is to rehab a ton of salary for the playoffs. Montreal missed the boat on this by pressing Markov to return and not insisting earlier on Gorges’ surgery. Both might have been available for later along with the depth their salary space would have left. Instead, Montreal lines the Molsons pockets as it carries cap space month over month.
5) Goaltender not cast as hero/savior, a real possibility
Philly doesn’t just happen into these goalies, they have made the choice to put money elsewhere. This year it’s Leighton, Boucher and Bobrovsky, last year it was Emery and co., Biron before that, and on into eternity. Philly hasn’t been able to hold a candle to the goaltending the Canadiens have put forward in the last two decades. Yet Philly has often been contending and making deep playoff runs, while goalie-driven Montreal has not.
Having a good goalie is not a weakness, but perhaps overpaying for one is. Turning goalie money into an extra goal for a game will pay the bills when good = 92% of saves and bad = 90% of saves.
This article could be way off. Philly made the Stanley Cup final last year, yes. But they barely made the playoffs and didn’t really beat anyone too good (sorry Habs fans). What’s more, their 69 points today is actually only 10 points out of 7th (hello Montreal) and their lack of goaltending could yet topple them from their perch.
Still, I think these lessons are good ones. They are not the only rules of operation, but rather 5 among many that Philly have exploited to find a bit of success and bottle it. They’re also good ones as there’s nothing stopping a team like Montreal from approaching things from this way right away. No one is saying they need to lose for 6 seasons (Oilers) to win, or anything.
The game promises to be a good one (they often are in this rivalry), but aside from that, it’s a chance for Canadiens fans to glimpse a very well-put together NHL outfit for the last time in the regular season. Why well put together?
It’s been noted here before, and elsewhere, that balance has been a key with the Flyers. Their top three centres on some nights are Daniel Briere, Jeff Carter and Mike Richards. All first round picks, all having great seasons. Their wings are just as deep with Claude Giroux (the envy of a province), Scott Hartnell, Ville Leino, James van Riemsdyk and Nikolai Zherdev.
Surely a team like this would suffer at the back? Nope. Pronger, Timonen, Carle, Meszaros, Coburn and O’Donnell at its healthful best.
It’s a line-up with oodles of pre-professional pedigree and experience (10 first rounders) to go with their recently gained Stanley Cup teeth.
When one looks at this team, one has to wonder how Philadelphia came out on top over Atlanta, Florida, Islanders, and other perennial lottery seekers. They’ve had their high first rounders (Pitkanen, van Riemsdyk), but Philly has built this group through hard work, some good drafting and a commitment to a formula. I think there are some good lessons for Montreal managers here:
1) Big draft coming – be ready
2003 was one of the most talent laden drafts in the history of the NHL. There’s hardly a player drafted in that first round who hasn’t played in the NHL. It has more than its fair share of stars. Montreal media will never tire of telling us about how Andrei Kostitsyn (picked 10th) could have been Jeff Carter, or Mike Richards, or Zach Parise. Philly was one of a few teams that positioned themselves superbly for this draft. Prior to it taking place, they managed to turn Daymond Langkow into a first rounder from Phoenix. In doing so, they nabbed the #11 pick. In addition, they accumulated 7 picks in the top 3 rounds. Doing this affords a team with the freedom to cater to more scouts and take chances, while leaving those annoyingly unsuccessful hole-filling picks for later rounds.
2006 was the same story, deep draft and Philly was there with a boatload of picks. I’m not sure the Flyers go for Giroux at that time in the first round (their D was a big, big weakness) without the surety of 5 picks in the first 3 rounds.
Montreal’s done an OK job of this in the past (and 2003 and 2006 were pretty good hauls for them too), but this lesson just needs to be drilled in a little more.
2) Draft forwards, acquire defencemen
The best forwards are young, fast and dynamic. The best defencemen are old wise and efficient. It’s right there for NHL GMs to see, yet some still insist on picking defensive defencemen in early rounds (Komisarek, Fischer, Tinordi).
Philly has about 8 dynamic scoring forwards, any or all of which could score 30 goals. Add 9-goal Nodl and that’s nine. Of the nine, 4 are Philly first rounders, Nodl is a second rounder. Yes they added Briere, Leino and Zherdev through a variety of means, but their core is from their own scouting and commitment.
The contrast is their defence. Pronger (trade and sign), Timonen (trade and sign), Coburn (trade), Meszaros (trade), Carle (trade), O’Donnell (sign). Not a draft pick there.
Since the Pitkanen choice in 2002, Philly has had 6 first round picks. 5 were forwards. 6 times in 8 drafts their first selection was a forward. The Habs are all over the map in their first round strategy. Scoring has been a need for as long as I can remember (2008 was a blip, I admit) and the team is still drafting big Dmen.
3) Don’t be precious about prospects
Philly has had its fair share of name prospects pass through over the years. Once they may have been precious about them, but their recent attitude seems to treat them like assets until they are established. Pitkanen keeps getting mentioned and he was one. He was turned into Lupul, essentially. Other prospects that have been leveraged include Upshall, Sbisa and Lupul himself. A sentimentalist might have kept these and missed the opportunity their trading presented.
Montreal fans get very precious about prospects. Some still lament McDonagh and Valentenko. No one wants to throw away a prospect in a bad trade, but holding onto an average prospect may leave you with an average team.
4) Salary cap, schmalary cap
I’ve said cap space is overrated. Philly walks the walk. They pay the price for big parts of a team and they often go very close or over the cap. On at least one occasion, they’ve had to call in amateurs to avoid actually exceeding the payroll limit.
With penalties for going over so slack, and opportunities to bury salary in long recoveries from injury, it seems one way to create good depth is to rehab a ton of salary for the playoffs. Montreal missed the boat on this by pressing Markov to return and not insisting earlier on Gorges’ surgery. Both might have been available for later along with the depth their salary space would have left. Instead, Montreal lines the Molsons pockets as it carries cap space month over month.
5) Goaltender not cast as hero/savior, a real possibility
Philly doesn’t just happen into these goalies, they have made the choice to put money elsewhere. This year it’s Leighton, Boucher and Bobrovsky, last year it was Emery and co., Biron before that, and on into eternity. Philly hasn’t been able to hold a candle to the goaltending the Canadiens have put forward in the last two decades. Yet Philly has often been contending and making deep playoff runs, while goalie-driven Montreal has not.
Having a good goalie is not a weakness, but perhaps overpaying for one is. Turning goalie money into an extra goal for a game will pay the bills when good = 92% of saves and bad = 90% of saves.
This article could be way off. Philly made the Stanley Cup final last year, yes. But they barely made the playoffs and didn’t really beat anyone too good (sorry Habs fans). What’s more, their 69 points today is actually only 10 points out of 7th (hello Montreal) and their lack of goaltending could yet topple them from their perch.
Still, I think these lessons are good ones. They are not the only rules of operation, but rather 5 among many that Philly have exploited to find a bit of success and bottle it. They’re also good ones as there’s nothing stopping a team like Montreal from approaching things from this way right away. No one is saying they need to lose for 6 seasons (Oilers) to win, or anything.
Sunday, January 02, 2011
Habs in the Noughties
Ten High Points
This December 31st marks the end of the first decade of the new millennium -- the Noughties according to the English, to reflect all the noughts (or zeroes) in the dates.
For the Habs fan, the decade began most inauspiciously. On New year's Day 2001, Canadiens fans were recovering from their Millennium parties while sitting last in the entire NHL after New Year's Eve. The record was 10-23-4-2 and Therrien wasn't bringing any of the usual boost that a new coach sometimes brings. The team was on its way to its worst season since the 1940s.
But there was light for Canadiens fans. Houle was gone and the repairs were beginning in earnest to the havoc he had wreaked over his tenure.
As we stand here 10 years on, it would be fair to say a lot of the damage has been patched. The team has been in the playoffs for 5 of the last 6 seasons. They have been both a conference finalist, a frequent playoff round winner and an Eastern champion. A roster that on a cold January day once sported Aaron Asham, Craig Darby, Chad Kilger, Eric Landry, Juha Lind, Gino Odjick and Patrick Poulin all at the same time has improved. There have been trophies, and trophy finalists and All-Stars (legitimate ones too).
The decade's had its moments. Here are the best ten for me:
10. 2003 Heritage Classic
The original outdoor game, and the re-acquaintance with the alumni game. It was a treat for Habs and Oilers fans alike and set off a trend that the rest of the league would follow. The Habs won, which also helped its aura.
9. Sale to the Molsons
I'm certain that in other lists like the the financial crisis of 2008 would rank as one of the biggest stories of the decade. The Canadiens never faced a true crisis, but might have been bitten had their over-leveraged owner not chosen to sell this asset first from his portfolio. It was a benefit to the team, we'll probably never know exactly how big.
8. 2009 Centennial Game
The Centennial was built up for so long and geared to deliver for a couple of years through ceremony and extra merch possibilities. If nothing else had happened but Patrick Roy skating out onto the ice in his Canadiens uniform and full gear to face shots, I don't think many would have minded. December 4, 2009 was a magical night and even ended with a magical win over the Bruins.
7. Draft Lottery 2005
The Canadiens drafted Carey Price 5th overall in 2005. The Canadiens weren't due the 5th overall pick - more like the usual 18th. The lottery in 2005, following the lockout was a great boon for the Canadiens as they vied for Sidney Crosby (or rather their lottery balls did). I vividly remember sitting there listening to the radio after pick 11 had been drawn. Destiny seemed to be in the cards as the Canadiens repeatedly weren't called. Finally, pick #5, with a tinge of disappointment, but a later recognition of great luck, was granted. The draft which followed shortly after was resumption of hockey talk beyond law and salary, full of trade intrigue and player back-and-forth. it was a high point without a successful pick. With a successful pick, even higher.
6. Mike Cammalleri signing
Would anyone ever sign with the Habs? Rafalski, Hull, Shanahan? All the stars available always seemed to go elsewhere (usually Detroit). For the fan of a team wanting (and now needing) to rebuild via the free agent route, it was a question that constantly nagged. Cammalleri was one of the best forwards available in 2009. Young, proven and certainly a star. The minute I heard he signed withe the team, i thought what a coup. The fact that it precipitated the Maple Leafs to self-destruct later in trade form, obviously only makes it better in retrospect.
5. 2004 Playoff comeback
3-1 down against the strong Bruins. A Kovalev trade that was supposed to help wasn't. The season was heading for the tubes. On a dime it turned. From playoff goat in Game #4 (Souray's obstacle as he wringed his hand in pain), Kovy turned on the jets for the very first time and it was pure magic to watch for 3 games. The fact I was there for Game #6 to take in the euphoria was something I'll not likely forget.
4. Trevor Timmins hiring
In practical terms, this was perhaps the team's biggest turning point. The Habs had never been the worst team for scouting, but they were certainly a bit haphazard. Timmins seemed to change that. Since he's been on board, it's not been uncommon to talk about depth and about a strong farm system. Though the team waits for a superstar to fall from one of his picks, that's something that requires help from the ghosts. Since his hiring the team has been playoff material with homegrown core elements. A definite high point to say that after the late 1990s.
3. 2010 Playoff run
Last year's playoffs were absolutely great. We've come to believe that making the playoffs is a chance to won the Cup. But perhaps after a whipping in 2009 we wondered if were spoiled to expect that ever again. Enter Jaroslav Halak and Martin's new Canadiens. The team threatened to lose to better opponents nearly every night yet battled hard with timely offense and some sensational penalty killing and goaltending
2. Jose Theodore's February, March and April, 2002
This was breaking the hex in a big way. From middling mid-1990s to putrid turn of the century teams, the Habs needed a statement. That statement came in the form of a goaltender who just refused to lose. Theodore's spring of 2002 won him the Vezina and the Hart trophy. it won the Canadiens a playoff berth and a playoff upset round. it won the Habs fans their mojo back.
1. Koivu's comeback
During Theodore's incredible run, Saku Koivu was quietly working out readying himself for a return from his chemotherapy-induced layoff. From weakened and vulnerable Koivu in late fall, he was fully rebuilt in body and mind by April 2002. news of his return was magical enough. The return itself was unforgettable. I'm grateful that I somehow had the presence of mind to buy up some late seaosn tickets that year in hope of attending, as we scored a winning ticket to attend the game. A whole stadium of people rarely rains down their full affection in simultaneous fashion on a single person. on this night, they did. Koivu stood there and soaked it in. He would take that affection and turn it into inspired play over the next weeks. He was incredible in playoff action. His legend was solidified.
Honourable mention: Conference Champion's Run, 2008
Like the Conference Championship for the team, I don't give this the credit it deserves. If you consider for a moment that the team plays 6 months of hockey for points in the standings and then 2 weeks vs. the same team in the playoffs, it's stunning there aren't any banners for President's trophies and now that the Conference is 15-teams large, Conference Championships. The run to win was as good as any playoff series win, without the gratification that survival provides. Carey price was excellent, and for those with long memories - Kovalev was outstanding.
Blogs were less prevalent in 2001, this one wasn't conceived, i can assure you. But I did find one amateur account of the beginning of the decade. It's fun read.
For the Habs fan, the decade began most inauspiciously. On New year's Day 2001, Canadiens fans were recovering from their Millennium parties while sitting last in the entire NHL after New Year's Eve. The record was 10-23-4-2 and Therrien wasn't bringing any of the usual boost that a new coach sometimes brings. The team was on its way to its worst season since the 1940s.
But there was light for Canadiens fans. Houle was gone and the repairs were beginning in earnest to the havoc he had wreaked over his tenure.
As we stand here 10 years on, it would be fair to say a lot of the damage has been patched. The team has been in the playoffs for 5 of the last 6 seasons. They have been both a conference finalist, a frequent playoff round winner and an Eastern champion. A roster that on a cold January day once sported Aaron Asham, Craig Darby, Chad Kilger, Eric Landry, Juha Lind, Gino Odjick and Patrick Poulin all at the same time has improved. There have been trophies, and trophy finalists and All-Stars (legitimate ones too).
The decade's had its moments. Here are the best ten for me:
10. 2003 Heritage Classic
The original outdoor game, and the re-acquaintance with the alumni game. It was a treat for Habs and Oilers fans alike and set off a trend that the rest of the league would follow. The Habs won, which also helped its aura.
9. Sale to the Molsons
I'm certain that in other lists like the the financial crisis of 2008 would rank as one of the biggest stories of the decade. The Canadiens never faced a true crisis, but might have been bitten had their over-leveraged owner not chosen to sell this asset first from his portfolio. It was a benefit to the team, we'll probably never know exactly how big.
8. 2009 Centennial Game
The Centennial was built up for so long and geared to deliver for a couple of years through ceremony and extra merch possibilities. If nothing else had happened but Patrick Roy skating out onto the ice in his Canadiens uniform and full gear to face shots, I don't think many would have minded. December 4, 2009 was a magical night and even ended with a magical win over the Bruins.
7. Draft Lottery 2005
The Canadiens drafted Carey Price 5th overall in 2005. The Canadiens weren't due the 5th overall pick - more like the usual 18th. The lottery in 2005, following the lockout was a great boon for the Canadiens as they vied for Sidney Crosby (or rather their lottery balls did). I vividly remember sitting there listening to the radio after pick 11 had been drawn. Destiny seemed to be in the cards as the Canadiens repeatedly weren't called. Finally, pick #5, with a tinge of disappointment, but a later recognition of great luck, was granted. The draft which followed shortly after was resumption of hockey talk beyond law and salary, full of trade intrigue and player back-and-forth. it was a high point without a successful pick. With a successful pick, even higher.
6. Mike Cammalleri signing
Would anyone ever sign with the Habs? Rafalski, Hull, Shanahan? All the stars available always seemed to go elsewhere (usually Detroit). For the fan of a team wanting (and now needing) to rebuild via the free agent route, it was a question that constantly nagged. Cammalleri was one of the best forwards available in 2009. Young, proven and certainly a star. The minute I heard he signed withe the team, i thought what a coup. The fact that it precipitated the Maple Leafs to self-destruct later in trade form, obviously only makes it better in retrospect.
5. 2004 Playoff comeback
3-1 down against the strong Bruins. A Kovalev trade that was supposed to help wasn't. The season was heading for the tubes. On a dime it turned. From playoff goat in Game #4 (Souray's obstacle as he wringed his hand in pain), Kovy turned on the jets for the very first time and it was pure magic to watch for 3 games. The fact I was there for Game #6 to take in the euphoria was something I'll not likely forget.
4. Trevor Timmins hiring
In practical terms, this was perhaps the team's biggest turning point. The Habs had never been the worst team for scouting, but they were certainly a bit haphazard. Timmins seemed to change that. Since he's been on board, it's not been uncommon to talk about depth and about a strong farm system. Though the team waits for a superstar to fall from one of his picks, that's something that requires help from the ghosts. Since his hiring the team has been playoff material with homegrown core elements. A definite high point to say that after the late 1990s.
3. 2010 Playoff run
Last year's playoffs were absolutely great. We've come to believe that making the playoffs is a chance to won the Cup. But perhaps after a whipping in 2009 we wondered if were spoiled to expect that ever again. Enter Jaroslav Halak and Martin's new Canadiens. The team threatened to lose to better opponents nearly every night yet battled hard with timely offense and some sensational penalty killing and goaltending
2. Jose Theodore's February, March and April, 2002
This was breaking the hex in a big way. From middling mid-1990s to putrid turn of the century teams, the Habs needed a statement. That statement came in the form of a goaltender who just refused to lose. Theodore's spring of 2002 won him the Vezina and the Hart trophy. it won the Canadiens a playoff berth and a playoff upset round. it won the Habs fans their mojo back.
1. Koivu's comeback
During Theodore's incredible run, Saku Koivu was quietly working out readying himself for a return from his chemotherapy-induced layoff. From weakened and vulnerable Koivu in late fall, he was fully rebuilt in body and mind by April 2002. news of his return was magical enough. The return itself was unforgettable. I'm grateful that I somehow had the presence of mind to buy up some late seaosn tickets that year in hope of attending, as we scored a winning ticket to attend the game. A whole stadium of people rarely rains down their full affection in simultaneous fashion on a single person. on this night, they did. Koivu stood there and soaked it in. He would take that affection and turn it into inspired play over the next weeks. He was incredible in playoff action. His legend was solidified.
Honourable mention: Conference Champion's Run, 2008
Like the Conference Championship for the team, I don't give this the credit it deserves. If you consider for a moment that the team plays 6 months of hockey for points in the standings and then 2 weeks vs. the same team in the playoffs, it's stunning there aren't any banners for President's trophies and now that the Conference is 15-teams large, Conference Championships. The run to win was as good as any playoff series win, without the gratification that survival provides. Carey price was excellent, and for those with long memories - Kovalev was outstanding.
Blogs were less prevalent in 2001, this one wasn't conceived, i can assure you. But I did find one amateur account of the beginning of the decade. It's fun read.
Monday, August 09, 2010
Could The Habs Do A Losing Season?
Over the weekend, I was watching TSN and was surprised to see a feature on a Canadiens prospect at the Canadian junior camp. It was Louis Leblanc again, of course, and the story revolved around his decision to pull out the stops by playing in the QMJHL. Part of the report noted that good old Louis had had a great little scrimmage at the camp. Apparently, he’s been creating some one-game chemistry with Sean Couturier.
Sean Couturier? This is when my ears piqued. Sean Couturier led the QMJHL in scoring this past season. He played on the Drummondville Voltigeurs. He was born in Phoenix, but grew up partly in Quebec to Quebecois father and former junior hockey star Sylvain Couturier. He’s 6’4” and 193 lbs, is still 17 years old and is touted to e the first overall pick in the 2011 draft.
In short, the Canadiens might be interested.
The problem for the Canadiens is that since the draft started, or at least since they had a canny GM, players like Couturier are only available through a deft trading hand or the old-fashioned way, with a bit of losing. Gauthier has shown his hand at the swaps already, and it ain’t deft, so that leaves the losing.
Could the Canadiens be a loser?
Last season the Canadiens made the playoffs by a single point thanks to an OT loss in the last game of the season. While that proved to be a critical point looking back on the conference finalist season, we should not forget that it could have been so different.
So what you say? Here’s what. Had the Canadiens missed a single point it would have been early misery for Habs fans this spring. But 14 points less and it gets really interesting – the Habs would have tied the maple Leafs in points and been in line for a top two pick in the NHl entry draft.
14 points is a lot in the NHL. But 14 points can escape quickly too.
Imagine Benoit Pouliot had not stormed the barricades upon his arrival, but rather settled into his Minnesota Wild and his latter Canadiens form. Imagine Sergei Kostitsyn had been banished on a permanent basis and the Canadiens toiled some more with Pacioretty and Maxwell. Imagine Gainey had insisted on giving Carey Price every on ice learning experience he could gather, while ignoring the value that time on the bench could bring. Imagine Andrei Markov had healed like a regular human with a completely severed tendon. Imagine the Habs hadn't won so many early season OT games as they did.
I’ll admit, it’s a lot of what ifs, and it doesn’t account for corrections that could and probably would have been made to make a salvage attempt for the season. But suffice to say, it wasn’t that far off.
So remembering all those what ifs, have a look at this upcoming season. Pouliot isn’t changing teams this year (yet) and may still be playoff Ben. Sergei is gone anyway, Pacioretty and Maxwell look due some time. There is no Halak to take starts away from Carey Price anymore. And, Andrei Markov is already injured, though he may be healing just as well as before. Everyone else is healthy as I write, but injury, late night whining on French language chat shows, is an inevitability, not a variable.
The 88-point Canadiens team that just made the playoffs last year could very well be outsiders this season, and they're not many slips away from a 14-point tumble. They could be a loser.
Could the Canadiens really be a loser?
Upstairs, I postulate that it is mathematically possible for the Canadiens to be a loser. 74 points is not out of the realm of possibility. 68 points either. The team as it stands is an 88-point team that traded its best player and looks to be relying on rookies and temperamental wingers to carry significant pressure.
But in Montreal mathematics means little. What matters more than that is tolerance for loss. The tolerance of fans, coach, GM and owners. Because the opening day Canadiens will not necessarily be the closing day Canadiens.
We know a bit about fan tolerance. It’s close to nil. If 2 losses can sway millions, imagine a hopeless February and March. Tolerance from Martin might not be at its height either. This isn’t Ottawa 1995, this could be Martin’s last stand and he’ll not relish the role of lottery leader. The same must be true of “interim” GM Gauthier. He’s inherited a job without test and has moved boldly to already put his own neck on the line. I’m not sure he could rationalize the losing to save his own hide. Finally, the owners. While it may be best to take a crack at lose-win cycle that works for other teams, it may not fit with the Molson vision for the Canadiens as a fat calf.
Decisions in a losing Montreal Canadiens organization rest on a hair trigger, with movement, perhaps at a great future cost, often seen as the perfect mean to relieve the dissonance.
Could you stomach a losing season?
For me there are two competing interests in my heart on this question. Ultimately, only the Cup remains as a goal. For one, I see the cold practicality of losing badly if the team is to lose at all (that is to miss the playoffs anyway). Juxtaposed with that is the memory that the 88-point Canadiens made the conference final and were beaten by the 89-point Flyers, mediocrity in the season means less in the arena of the playoffs. And seasons of pain don’t guarantee anything at all (hello Thrashers and Blue Jackets fans).
Still: “Leblanc. Leblanc remet a Couturier. Couturier contourne Orpik. Couturier a Dumont. Et le but.” You have to admit it has a certain ring.
What do you think?
Sean Couturier? This is when my ears piqued. Sean Couturier led the QMJHL in scoring this past season. He played on the Drummondville Voltigeurs. He was born in Phoenix, but grew up partly in Quebec to Quebecois father and former junior hockey star Sylvain Couturier. He’s 6’4” and 193 lbs, is still 17 years old and is touted to e the first overall pick in the 2011 draft.
In short, the Canadiens might be interested.
The problem for the Canadiens is that since the draft started, or at least since they had a canny GM, players like Couturier are only available through a deft trading hand or the old-fashioned way, with a bit of losing. Gauthier has shown his hand at the swaps already, and it ain’t deft, so that leaves the losing.
Could the Canadiens be a loser?
Last season the Canadiens made the playoffs by a single point thanks to an OT loss in the last game of the season. While that proved to be a critical point looking back on the conference finalist season, we should not forget that it could have been so different.
So what you say? Here’s what. Had the Canadiens missed a single point it would have been early misery for Habs fans this spring. But 14 points less and it gets really interesting – the Habs would have tied the maple Leafs in points and been in line for a top two pick in the NHl entry draft.
14 points is a lot in the NHL. But 14 points can escape quickly too.
Imagine Benoit Pouliot had not stormed the barricades upon his arrival, but rather settled into his Minnesota Wild and his latter Canadiens form. Imagine Sergei Kostitsyn had been banished on a permanent basis and the Canadiens toiled some more with Pacioretty and Maxwell. Imagine Gainey had insisted on giving Carey Price every on ice learning experience he could gather, while ignoring the value that time on the bench could bring. Imagine Andrei Markov had healed like a regular human with a completely severed tendon. Imagine the Habs hadn't won so many early season OT games as they did.
I’ll admit, it’s a lot of what ifs, and it doesn’t account for corrections that could and probably would have been made to make a salvage attempt for the season. But suffice to say, it wasn’t that far off.
So remembering all those what ifs, have a look at this upcoming season. Pouliot isn’t changing teams this year (yet) and may still be playoff Ben. Sergei is gone anyway, Pacioretty and Maxwell look due some time. There is no Halak to take starts away from Carey Price anymore. And, Andrei Markov is already injured, though he may be healing just as well as before. Everyone else is healthy as I write, but injury, late night whining on French language chat shows, is an inevitability, not a variable.
The 88-point Canadiens team that just made the playoffs last year could very well be outsiders this season, and they're not many slips away from a 14-point tumble. They could be a loser.
Could the Canadiens really be a loser?
Upstairs, I postulate that it is mathematically possible for the Canadiens to be a loser. 74 points is not out of the realm of possibility. 68 points either. The team as it stands is an 88-point team that traded its best player and looks to be relying on rookies and temperamental wingers to carry significant pressure.
But in Montreal mathematics means little. What matters more than that is tolerance for loss. The tolerance of fans, coach, GM and owners. Because the opening day Canadiens will not necessarily be the closing day Canadiens.
We know a bit about fan tolerance. It’s close to nil. If 2 losses can sway millions, imagine a hopeless February and March. Tolerance from Martin might not be at its height either. This isn’t Ottawa 1995, this could be Martin’s last stand and he’ll not relish the role of lottery leader. The same must be true of “interim” GM Gauthier. He’s inherited a job without test and has moved boldly to already put his own neck on the line. I’m not sure he could rationalize the losing to save his own hide. Finally, the owners. While it may be best to take a crack at lose-win cycle that works for other teams, it may not fit with the Molson vision for the Canadiens as a fat calf.
Decisions in a losing Montreal Canadiens organization rest on a hair trigger, with movement, perhaps at a great future cost, often seen as the perfect mean to relieve the dissonance.
Could you stomach a losing season?
For me there are two competing interests in my heart on this question. Ultimately, only the Cup remains as a goal. For one, I see the cold practicality of losing badly if the team is to lose at all (that is to miss the playoffs anyway). Juxtaposed with that is the memory that the 88-point Canadiens made the conference final and were beaten by the 89-point Flyers, mediocrity in the season means less in the arena of the playoffs. And seasons of pain don’t guarantee anything at all (hello Thrashers and Blue Jackets fans).
Still: “Leblanc. Leblanc remet a Couturier. Couturier contourne Orpik. Couturier a Dumont. Et le but.” You have to admit it has a certain ring.
What do you think?
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