Showing posts with label Columbus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Columbus. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 02, 2015

Columbus Discovers Montreal Opportunism

Date: 01/12/2015
Opponent:Blue Jackets
Location: Montreal

Win: 2-1

Habs Goalie: Condon (W)
Opposition Goalie:  Bobrovsky (L)

Habs goalscorers: Byron, Pacioretty
Opposition goalscorers:  Foligno

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Habs Picks Are In (Almost)

So there it was, the spectacle of the NHL draft lottery. RDS and TSN outdid themselves by narrowly surpassing the pointlessness of their Trade deadline Day and Free Agency day coverages.

We had to wade through quite a bit of speculation, but eventually there was some excitement.

First we pan to Bill Daly opening an envelope (what too sensitive to show the draw on camera?) and then to Brian Burke to show that the Maple leafs had not won the draft lottery (phew). From this we know that no team directly behind the Leafs were pulled either. Also, we find comfort in seeing that Burke is sticking with his angry man tie fashion.

Another envelope, another loser. This time the Isles miss the win. So that's what Garth Snow looks like...

The big moment didn't give much time for anticipation. The envelope was opened to reveal to Larry Carriere that the Habs would be picking 3rd as their position showed.

On to first, and the Oilers are revealed as the winners. The undeserving GM can't wipe the grin from his face. The sad Blue Jackets take one last loss at the final buzzer.


Picks in
What this means of course is that the Habs will be picking third overall. It will be the team's highest selection in over 30 years. Only the Rangers and Flames (no top 5 picks ever) have had fewer top fivers over that time.

Beyond the third pick, it's good to note that the Habs will be picking 3rd in every subsequent round as well. That is, all those rounds from which they have not already traded their privilege.

So that means 3rd, 33rd, 64th (round 2 has 31 picks), 94th and 154th. The team also owns the rights to Nashville's second round pick this year, thanks to Hal Gill. Essentially the team will have four picks by the time they would have had one in 2008. Five before they would have had their second last season.

This volume is important and not mentioned very often. Five players of the top 100 in a deep year can mean some quality depth added. It also gives the team a chance to mine some quality Quebecois talent (none right now in the consensus top 30, btw) without having to pay over the odds to do it (with too high a pick) or by doing it half-heartedly (O. Archambault @108).

Also very important is that 33rd pick. This pick is a first-round run-off pick and as such is very valuable. It gains more and more value as the trade continues and players that some teams have valued as their top priority fall by the wayside to home run swing picks. The value can be cashed either with one of those players, or perhaps in a bargaining move with an eager buyer on draft day. The luxury of having the other second rounder and the high 3rd and 4th rounders are good buffer for trade.

All this puts the Canadiens scouting staff in a nice position to really go after what they believe in. Furthermore, it gives a new GM some ammunition should the route of trade be considered the way forward.


Grigorenko

The 3rd pick as it stands now looks like it could materialize into Mikhail "Grigo" Grigorenko.

But temper the optimism. The likelihood of that player falling to the third position depends very much on the two teams ahead of the Canadiens.

In the better case scenario, I think we all saw the Blue Jackets taking Yakupov, with Edmonton finally conceding they need something other than a forward and taking (sudden consensus two) Ryan Murray to fill out a team of shooters. With CBJ in second, the logic remains, but is somehow less convincing. Columbus doesn't have a young stable of good forwards in the organization like the Oilers do and can't afford to take the second best player as they cling to NHL life. While a defender might ultimately make more sense for a team who believed Wisniewski the solution to their woes, a jittery team might value the quick fix of a scorer and at last a centre for Nash.

If Grigo is gone, the Canadiens have some soul searching to do. Ryan Murray is not perhaps the player they need on the big team to complement Subban/Markov/Gorges/Emelin/Beaulieu/Tinordi. And one sees what having an expendable young defender can return (McDonagh). The decision to trade that defender should be clear before the situation unfolds so that time is not lost to hesitation.

Personally, I would trade down before picking Murray. Indeed, from what I've read, I might prefer two of the top 30 to one of the next five. I have a bad feeling about Galchenyuk and would rather hedge than take him outright at three.


Whatever happens before June, or in June, I will guarantee that it will be a more exciting time to be a Habs fan than it usually is in early summer. The potential for this kind of talent to join, the potential for movement, the reason to even watch the draft all make for a better June.

Tuesday, December 06, 2011

Game #28

Habs Steal One From Jackets' Pocket

Details


Date: 6/12/2011
Opponent: Blue Jackets
Location: Montreal

Loss: 3-2 (SO)

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Sanford (W)

Habs goalscorers: Kostitsyn, Gionta
Opposition goalscorers: Prospal, Umberger (Nash - SO)



Play of the game


We'd been lucky once already this game with a last-second goal in a listless first period, so hoping for a second while trailing late in the third seemed like it might be asking a little much. Then, a shot from outside by Plekanec was actually followed to the net by a couple forwards for once, Gionta to one side and Cammalleri to the other. The captain ended up with a soft rebound and made no mistake in putting it home to send this one to overtime and absolutely stealing a point from Columbus.



Dome hockey team


The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Andrei Kostitsyn
His goal late in the first off a beautiful feed from Cammalleri was the only thing keeping us alive through the first 58:39 of the game. His defensive game wasn't up to scratch, and was on for both goals against. Still, he was one of the few that showed any offensive spark.

Brian Gionta
His late goal to salvage a point from a pretty uninspiring performance by most of the squad makes him a shoo-in.
I love to see a captain that does exactly what a captain needs to do.

Erik Cole
Poor Erik Cole couldn't buy a goal tonight. The fact that he had so many missed chances almost made me want to leave him out, but we know he's doing a lot of things right to get all those opportunities. Seems to magically create offense from nothing on a regular basis.

Defencemen

P.K. Subban
It's easy to sell Subban short these days with the expectations he has built for himself. He's played flashier games, but I like that he's been a little less flamboyant on the ice. He was on for almost 32 minutes and did his fair share of work to pitch in on offense while still being expected to be playing a more defensively responsible role.

Alexei Emelin
9 hits. 9 hits, and all over the rink. At least 3 of them were real earth-shakers, too. He plastered guys at the blue line to make them pay the price for coming into the zone, and he rocked them on the boards to make them pay for being in his house. Played solid defense for over 22 minutes and picked up his first NHL assist, he should be proud of his work.

Goaltender

Carey Price - Game Puck
No question about this one tonight. Without the stunning work by Price throughout the game, we would have never had a chance. His absolute stoning of Umberger on the breakaway with just under a minute left in the second was a strong play of the game candidate, along with his huge save on Nash in the opening minutes of the third. Price was huge all night and was instrumental in getting that point for the standings.


Comments


Perhaps a little tired after a long road trip, the Habs started the night slowly and looked lethargic at times, especially early in the first. Columbus had a good game plan tonight, and they did a great job of clogging up the neutral zone and playing the body to prevent us from using our speed to play strong transition hockey. I haven't seen the team so completely and thoroughly stymied as this in any game I've blogged so far this season.

Worse than that, Colombus has some speedy players, and they created a shocking number of breakaways and odd-man rushes through breaking up plays in the neutral ice. Nash and Huselius looked particularly dangerous together, and I was reminded of how much I love watching Nash play hockey. Our power play woes continue, and we looked particularly pathetic in the third opportunity when another ridiculously slow line change stranded two lone Habs in the offensive zone while the forwards figured out who was supposed be doing what, and when. Oh, and when we went 0-for-3 on the shootout.

As I alluded to above, it seems to me that we got more a little lucky at times tonight. But given how unlucky some of our guys were (Cole fanned on some golden opportunities tonight), we deserved a little. Overall, though, we looked tired and weren't passing the puck well. It looked to me like we got outplayed by a Blue Jacket squad that really had their game together, and we should be pretty happy to take home a point.

Friday, June 24, 2011

Philly's Mess Catches Up With Them

Richards, Carter. Gone, gone.

This good news for the Habs is ostensibly bad news for the Flyers and their fans. Richards and Carter were a big part of the Flyers success and a huge reason the team ever got close to a Stanley Cup without a goalie.

But that's where it all goes wrong isn't it?

Without a goalie.

For most teams, not having a good goalie is a problem. For Philadelphia it's a brain-devouring complex. That's why instead of applying a bit of patience and recognizing what a good thing they may have pulled from thin air in Bobrovsky, they went out and did what they always did and signed, signed, signed.

Bryzgalov is a good goalie, don't get me wrong. I like him, I like his chances in Philly. But you will note that Anaheim let him go, that Phoenix let him go, that Phoenix doesn't have any Cups.

A goalie simply can't do it all. Let me rephrase that, a goalie not named Thomas or Hasek can't do it all. A team needs to put talent at all positions and use their salary allowance wisely to do that.


Philly's real problems

A lot of articles on yesterday's trades say things like "Holmgren managed to unload Carter's long-term contract/Richards salary cap millstone".

I think these comments are way off the mark. Both players were paid in the $5 million range and both performed to the level of their salary, which in the world of guys paid that much means they were bargains.

What's more, the salary cap hasn't been going anywhere but up, even through the worst financial period in modern US/Canadian history. As the proportion that a $5 million salary takes up shrinks, the better a long-term deal for a producing player paid at that level looks.

Saying nothing about intangibles at all, I can firmly say that Richards and Carter were not the salary cap problems in Philadelphia. If anything, they were among the contracts that permitted them to spend with abandon at times.

The real problems in Philly come in at the back end.

The Pronger deal wasn't expensive at the time, but it was a gaffe to sign him long-term past his 35th birthday. This contract is central to their problem.

Timonen is another. If Price/Halak was a luxury, Pronger/Timonen was a bigger one. Both players are paid to be #1 Dmen, but the name implies there can only be one #1 Dman. The other became the most expensive second fiddle in the league.

And it didn't stop there. Rather than fill out a roster like everyone else in the league would with prospects and a couple of cheaper contracts at the back (to defend other teams' fourth lines), Holmgren put $3 million players at every hole.

The Flyers biggest cap problem was their luxury defense, which got them 7th best D in the East with 6 less GA than Florida.

Other than their $22 million defence corps, Philly also took on the dead weight contract of Kris Versteeg. In fact, they repeated their luxury buying attitude up front with a third line that included double millionaires all around.


Fix is temporary

Philly found a temporary fix for immediate cap space, but based on the Bryzgalov signing, it won't be used for prudent and conservative rebuilding. In fact, when the grossly overpaid forward comes in as the replacement for Carter/Richards, fans will most likely be wondering what these deals were for.


Habs news more encouraging

The Habs did better in the last couple of days with their signings and seem less likely to implode their plan and go schizophrenically down the garden path. While I'll always lament Gauthier for not getting in on action like Ville Leino or Andrej Meszaros, I at least admire his commitment to the plan he thought was working last spring. Holmgren on the other hand...

The Flyers moves do also serve the Habs well since this team was a chief rival and those two players were chief nemeses. Some fans will point to the danger of the rebuild for the Habs more distant future, but the contracts at the back, together with the quick trigger of Holmgren seem to provide the insurance that this team won't be a perennial problem.


I guess this whole thing just shows that making a cap mess will catch up with your team at some point. Chicago's mess cost them a lot, but they have a Cup to show for it. Philly, mere games away, just got a mess.

Saturday, November 27, 2010

To Watch Beyond Goal 1?

Last night the Habs allowed the Thrashers the first goal.

Then for the 4th time this season, they simply couldn't do anything to answer that.

Should we be surprised? I'd say no.

If you want to look for a weakness on this Canadiens team, beyond the PP and their "second" centre that is, the proven inability to be beaten by a first goal might be it.

This season, the record is clear enough:

2-7-0 now after being scored on first.
That includes 4 shutouts against, and 6 occasions where they never even tied the game up again.

Even the two games they won were quirky in that they scored rather quickly to negate that early lead. Vs. Phoenix, they answered within 5 minutes and had the lead within 8 minutes. In Buffalo, they answered the first goal within the minute, and the same for the second.

This season, at least, this is a team that plays like champions with a lead, but rather like chumps when chasing.


There's a history here too.

In the playoffs last spring, the Canadiens let the opponents score first 8 times. They lost 7 of those games in very similar fashion to the above scenarios, again being shutout 4 times over.

Last regular season, the team was ranked 23rd among the 30 in win percentage when trailing after the first period (It isn't exactly the same thing as being scored on first necessarily, but for someone who just wants to make a quick point without doing lots of work, it's a good approximation for now). A piddly 0.256 percentage, once again indicating their propensity to find brick walls to run into.


Rivals


As all the talk these days seems to be intent on declaring the Habs true contenders based on their November run, this must be a factor to consider, a serious chink in the armor.

Good teams, well the best teams, win from in front and win from behind (again, I'll use trailing after the first to illustrate): Washington, Philadelphia, Chicago are all above 0.400 when needing to come back after 20 minutes. Washington is above 0.600.


Being beaten

All athletes will tell you there are different types of competitor. Among them these that can be beaten with an early flourish and those you can never turn your back on. My own experience is that the resilient ones, the ones you can never count out are the opponents you have to worry about. Those that win from in front when everything goes right but give up when they trail are easy enough to build a strategy for. There's no strategy to put down the ones that keep getting up.

Yesterday, I was listening to some radio guys go on about the Canadiens resilience and their apparent ability to bounce back from anything. This was evidenced by good games after bad they proposed. I think this is at serious odds with the in-game findings that show an almost total requirement for that first goal. With it, they are league contenders, without it, they are peers of the Islanders.

I only hope that the coaches and the team take these frequent shutouts as lessons for future use. To find, I suppose, ways not to fall into the typical defensive traps that leading teams create to make the appearance of offensive generation. Heck, they could learn those lessons from their own wins.


Yes, losses happen and we mustn't fret. Trends in losses, however, are worth paying attention to. If the Habs don't buck this trend, they may have enough trouble making the playoffs, let alone contending in them.

At least, I suppose, we could all save on a lot of hours watching the games if first goals continue to spell out results.

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Game #12

French Ex-Hab Goalie Does it to Us Again, But Habs Help His Cause

Details



Date: 2/11/2010
Opponent: Blue Jackets
Location: Columbus

Loss: 0-3

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Garon (W)

Habs goalscorers: None
Opposition goalscorers: Nash, Brassard, Wilson



Play of the game


Thank goodness for the poke-check; I love the poke-check. In the second period, when I still believed that we could turn it around Price made a very simple save (although it won't actually count as a save) by poke-checking a Blue Jacket who was on a partial break. A simple gesture, but sadly our best play all night.



Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Andrei Kostitsyn
Andrei was our most dangerous looking forward all night. After being the best player on his usual line he was tasked with jump-starting the Gomez-Gionta line for the last portion of the game. The results weren't flattering, however, as the only one who played well after the switch was Kostitsyn himself.

Mathieu Darche
Energy on each and every shift. That, of course, is kind of useless on a night like tonight as you really need that from your third or fourth best lines, not your top-2 (of which Darche was once again a part of). He came close to scoring and was noticeable all game, but I do hope that I start noticing some of the bigger names soon.

Mike Cammalleri
Mike was the best of the rest. For me it was his positive play on the PP that earned him some recognition. It would be nice if he and his linemates could score every night, but goals won't always come. At least, however, we know that consistent, strong efforts are becoming the norm for that trio.

Defencemen

Andrei Markov - Game Puck
Markov, our best player, was our best player tonight. There was the odd time where he missed a pass or where his timing was off, but I thought that, overall, he played a very good game. He was very strong in the offensive zone (led the team with 5 shots) and played a decent enough game in his own end.

Roman Hamrlik
I didn't like PK tonight and Gorges/Gill were in on each and every goal, so it was Hammer or Spacek. Neither player played great and neither played that badly. Jaro, however, had a few more mistakes and while pretty steady most of the time wasn't as strong for the 60 minutes as Roman. I actually think that Hamrlik is having a very nice start to the season and has probably been our best (all games included) on the year. Subban has more highs, but also more lows and Gorges, almost unfairly, is on the ice for a lot of Gill's mistakes.

Goaltender

Carey Price
When you don't score goals it doesn't matter what your goalie does. Carey let in 3 on 24, which is worse than he would like, but at the root of each goal was a solid offensive play that came from a poor defensive one. The Habs have to start scoring and, when they do, they'll win. Carey is doing what it takes to win on a nightly basis so I am sure this skid will be short-lived.


Comments


Sitting through a 0-3 game against the Blue Jackets isn't great. I can't even imagine what the players feel like as they actually had to go there. That said, there is no real excuse for the way they played. They are 100% healthy (at least in terms of active personnel), they are rested and they had incentive (a loss on Saturday, slumps that need to be shaken). I would have liked a little more effort from all 19 players as, against a team like Columbus, it could have gone a log way. On Saturday we got unlucky and Vokoun played well, so there was a built-in excuse. Tonight, however, there is no real reason or explanation that I would care to hear for this performance. The Canadiens have 3 days to prepare for their next game, 3 days to ensure that they don't play like this again.

Oh That It Were Friday

Blue Jackets Preview

On days that aren't Friday, the Columbus Blue Jackets are an 6-1-0 team, probably leading the league. Their spanner in the works has been Friday, where they have lost three of three to date.

As a team, the Blue Jackets are not great rivals of the Canadiens. In fact, if you were to rank the rivals of the Habs, I'd put good money on them coming bottom three. Yet, if the Habs franchise is on a resurgence, the Jackets may be a team to think about. Here's why.


Key match-ups

Good Corsi vs. Bad Corsi
Last playoffs Gabriel Desjardins had nightly aneurysms as Montreal played through what should have been impossible shot balance to progress in the playoffs. Today (in what probably is no coincidence from an many-time Habs downer) he evokes the wonders of the Columbus Blue Jackets:
"If we re-played the last three seasons a million times and put the Blue Jackets in any other division, we’d be talking about a successful franchise today."

It's good Corsi vs. bad Corsi folks. While the proof is usually in the pudding (whoever wins is better). That will not necessarily be an acceptable outcome. After all, if they played a million times, what would the overall record be?


Subban and Russell
This is a case of a once under-touted young defenceman coming up against a once over-touted offensive defenceman. Watch Kris Russell and PK Subban tonight and see which you'd prefer to have on your team.


Picard and Columbus LWs
We let our position on Spacek's possible demotion be known. Tonight we may get to see Picard put his abilities to the test. Columbus happens to have one of the most consistent LWs in the league in Rick Nash.


Price and Mason
Carey Price has been making hay with the Canadiens recent eye for defence, turning away all standard shots like a true starter does for wins. Mason has been making a hash of his efforts so far and stands at 0.890 in Save %. This despite his team allowing fewer than 30 shots a game in front of him. It's an interesting match up for more reasons than that, of course. Mason is the Price follow-on. Junior stand out, Team Canada goalie, instant NHL success and NHL struggle to follow.


Momentum

Both teams come off a loss. Montreal lost a game they might have won on other nights (with the real Gionta). Columbus just got thrashed by the Avalanche in a game where their coach called them defatist. I think the inevitable impact of Andrei Markov gives the away team the momentum here, but never underestimate the effects that a bad loss can have on re-focus potential. And it's not Friday....


lue Jackets the Habs covet

Rick Nash
Of course, they can't afford his contract, but if the Habs could, this is a player they'd pursue. He's big and lives up to his first round pick billing with Rocket Richard trophies. Plus we have centres who can pass.

Tom Sestito
The Blue Jackets were the subject of a Gare Joyce book I read over the summer. A good read, with a lot of insight into the Blue Jackets players. The book drove me to draft Derrick Brassard in my hockey pool (we'll se how that goes) and it drives me to write about Sestito.

Tom Sestito was ear-marked by the Blue Jackets scouts in that book as a player they wanted all along. He was an enormous junior, and is still big for an AHLer at 6'5". The gamble on him was that he would be a scorer. Not, perhaps like Nash, but maybe like Tim Kerr or something. Well, he may finally be coming into his own in the AHL with 5 goals and 7 assists in 10 games. He's halfway to his all-time best. All-time best or not, the Habs wouldn't suffer from a project like this guy who could give Markov and Subban the screen they need on the PP for years to come.


Habs the Blue Jackets covet

Scott Gomez
Rick Nash has scored a lot of goals with some very middling centres. Love him or hate him, not many will begrudge Scott Gomez the nod of excellent passer. What, and with his harmless shots that give rebounds by the bushel, Nash could soar to new heights with him at centre.

Mike Cammalleri
Columbus have always seemed a bit one-trick pony up front. Nash has always been there and Nash it was. And while, I like Nash as an option, another option wouldn't have hurt their chances along the way. Cammalleri is the Habs best natural goalscorer and Columbus have been starved for a second one for a decade now.


Impact of this result
Some people are setting this game up as the beginning of a new and much more challenging month for the Canadiens. While I don't entirely buy into it myself, the media sensitive Jacques Martin (see Picard, Spacek) just might.

Usually a loss to the Blue Jackets wouldn't send one reeling, but on this occasion, we don't want the Habs to start dismissing all their reasons for early succes (like defence, poise, patience) as luck and good scheduling like some in the media are starting to do. I think the Habs need a win or at least a close game to continue on their current path without a long soul-searching detour.

Thursday, February 04, 2010

Tanking For A Pick

Why The Habs Should Keep Winning

A win on the books has done little to turn minds away from tanking. Some analysts feel quite strongly about their ability to see the future months of 2010, so much so that the "towel", they insist, must still be thrown in.

I take issue with that argument for a few reasons. Some of which I elaborate on here.


The missing argument

When people advocate the tank, they always point to the Pittsburgh Penguins as the poster child. Pittsburgh drafted in the top 5 for 5 consecutive years on the backs of some horrible seasons. This landed them Staal, Crosby, Malkin, Fleury and Whitney. It seems a convincing argument, but how much more valid is it than saying a team should wear red to win, or a team should acquire Scott Niedermayer to win. It's not pure coincidence, we can see that. But while Pittsburgh turned their losing into winning, does that mean tanking is a reliable method?

The counter argument is often missed. That is, that teams that have been bottom of the league for nearly a generation have been enjoying near the same frequency of high draft picks as Pitssburgh, yet not turning that into results they can be proud of.

Take the Florida Panthers. You may remember them from lottery draws from nearly every year in living memory. Their most recent go-around in the land of top 5 picks was from 2001 to 2003. In 2001, they selected Stephen Weiss 4th overall. In 2002, Bouwmeester first. Then in 2003, after winning the lottery they traded down to pick Nathan Horton at 3rd. Their next season in the "build" phase, it was Rotislav Olesz at 7th. So that's 4 years building through the draft with results many in Montreal would consider unacceptable. And where has it left them? Last time I checked they missed the playoffs in 2008-09 and are in the thick of the race to miss again.

Florida's not alone. Columbus clocked up Klesla and Zherdev in the top 5 to go with Nash in building their version of the playoff evaders. Atlanta, famous for never winning a playoff game in their history also show a disturbing trend, even selecting well in Heatley and Kovalchuk, can't build a winner (at least in part due to duds Lehtonen and Stefan as top 5 picks). The San Jose Sharks may look like an example to follow now, but their success is mostly down to industry in trades and not due to selecting Andrei Zyuzin, Patrick Marleau then Brad Stuart to affect their outcomes. I could go on (hello Winnipeg).

Tanking is no guarantee for success. the only thing tanking does guarantee is a high pick and lots of losses. After that, you need more on your side – either good scouting or luck.


Franchise players

The premise of tanking as a legitimate strategy is nothing new. In the days of certain draft position, scouting departments could identify certain gems of players (Mario Lemieux, Mats Sundin, Eric Lindros, etc.) that were worth turning in a season for. And although we've been in a rich vein of drafts of late, the reality of the draft is that it's a hit or miss affair.

I had a look back at the drafts from 1990 to 2005 (supposing that 2006 draftees on are too young yet) and did some sums. What I found was that:

– In total there were 15 franchise players to be had (with some generous assessments in there) from the first round.

– Only one draft had three franchise players (1991) and 4 had two

– 6 franchise players were taken with the #1 pick

– There were only 5 franchise players taken from picks #2-5 in 16 years, compared to 4 with picks #6 to the end of the round that year


So franchise players don't come along every year, and they rarely more than one at once. What's more, you have almost as much chance nabbing one with any other pick in the first round as with one in the top 5. This is interesting enough, but then consider great players – players who once you get a few together can be the foundations of a great team.

– Only 37.5% of picks in the top 5 turned into players I judge to be great or better

– Only 34% of picks #2-5 turned into players I judge to be great or better

– Every year of the draft has produced one player great or better outside the top 5, 2003 produced multiple

– 2 years the top 5 has not produced a player great or better


That's an awfully big percentage of picks who may be able NHLers but won't fulfill the dream of tanking for Cups. Plus, good scouts show that they don't need a good pick to get the right player (and I'm not even including round 2 on).

One final thing:

– Recent drafts have been good producing 4 or 5 good to franchise players from the top 5 picks

– A run of drafts from 1991 to 1996 never produced more than 3 good to franchise players (meaning at least 2 were mediocre to poor). 1994 had four duds and 1996 only had 2 good players in the top 5, nothing more.


A better way

As you know by now, I see tanking as a highly flawed strategy that relies on a fair amount of luck and certainly timing. I think there must be a better way.

Generally, I think there is. It is demonstrated by teams like Detroit, like New Jersey, like San Jose. What these teams have shown is that attention to detail, attention to player development and shrewd management along the way can outdo and outpace the tanking strategy 9 times out of 10.

By committing to winning in Hamilton and hopefully Montreal, Gainey and his team can grow the winning mentality over time. Though they may miss the Rick Nash every once in a while, by teaching an ethic, they can make their Plekanecs into more effective players over the long run.

For me, tanking is out. I'd much prefer the Molsons to sink whatever windfalls they get form the playoffs into more men like Guy Boucher and more and better amateur and pro scouts.

When it comes to games that remain – win them all if you can. Try to win them all, no question. More good will come of 25 games of a team gelling and pulling in one direction than a 34% chance at a great player.


Draft lottery

On a final note, and as we're on the topic of the draft.

There are a lot of misconceptions about the draft lottery. My own were born of the fact I assumed I knew what was going on, so never really looked into it. As I had a look, I found out some interesting things many of you must already know, but some of you might find blow assumptions away:

1) There is only one pick determined by lottery. Once that lottery has taken place, all other picks proceed in the reverse order of the standings.

2) All teams who don't make the playoffs are in the lottery. However, the rule that a team can only move up 4 places means only the bottom 5 can actually win the 1st overall pick. Not being in the bottom five, however, does not preclude you from winning the lottery. So a team in 7th can win the lottery, but that team will only actually move up to 3rd in the draft.

3) A team can only move down one place, but this is obvious given the first finding.

This has interesting implications. The team in 5th from last can only pick 1st, 5th or 6th in actual fact. They can never acquire the 2nd, 3rd or 4th picks, because a team can't move up less than 4 places so long as there are places to move ahead. The 5thfrom last team has best odds of picking 5th (74.7%), but actually has a better chance of picking 6th (17.2%) than 1st (8.1%). The team in last is often said to have a 25% of winning the lottery, but given they retain the first pick if any team from 6th to 14th from the bottom win the lottery, they actually have a 48.2% chance of winning the first pick.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Game #24

Massive Third Period Sinks The Jackets

Details


Date: 23/11/09
Opponent: Blue Jackets
Location: Montreal


Win: 5-3

Habs Goalie: Price (W)
Opposition Goalie: Garon (W)

Habs goalscorers: Cammalleri, Bergeron (2), Metropolit, Lapierre
Opposition goalscorers: Vermette (2), Stralman



Play of the game


It has to be Fedor Tyutin's hooking penalty in the dying seconds of the second period. Did it prevent a goal? No, but boy did it ever launch the Habs. An extension of that play would of course be the intermission. The boys went into the locker room down a goal and with quite a mountain to climb against a team that was outplaying them in most categories. We started the third on the PP and although we didn't score while Tyutin was in the box, we did score almost immediately after he came out. We went on to own that period as we added two more goals and conceded none. Thanks for taking a stupid penalty Columbus, it was nice that it wasn't us for a change.



Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome



Forwards

Maxim Lapierre
Do you think Max has seen the writing on the wall? I mean what do you think of when you hear the name Lapierre? You will probably think of Latendresse. Well, the dynamic duo (not so much this year) has now been separated and my guess is that Max wants to stay. Maybe until now the two took their jobs in their home province for granted, but now I think Laps realizes that he could be next. So, what does he do to prove he wants to stay? Simple, he plays the best game of his season, he gives us the type of performance that we expect from him. 1 goal and +2 may not seem like a lot, but the way he played tonight, compared with how he has been playing, represents a major improvement from the kid.

Max Pacioretty
This Max didn't want to feel left out so he too had the best game of his season. The third period, in particular, was a strong one and I really hope this is something that he can build upon. He didn't manage to score, but he did get a couple of good chances and picked up two helpers in the process.

Tomas Plekanec
I ran out of players who gave their max, but Tomas did play another solid game. He collected 2 assists (both 2nd assists), but played a solid game beyond that. He was the best player on his line, who themselves did do a pretty good job tonight. He seems very capable of carrying the offensive load while we have multiple injuries and I fully expect that to continue when we are fully healthy again.

Defencemen

Roman Hamrlik
Defensively this was a very strong game from Hammer. He stood out amongst a group that got better as the game went on (Gorges in particular was also quite strong). There was one occasion in which Roman stripped Nash of the puck, near the goal in the third which I believe prevented what could have been a decent chance against us. Now, stats show that he was on the ice for all of our goals against, but I can only stress that winning this game may not have even been possible had he not been there to reduce the damage.

Marc-Andre Bergeron - Game Puck
The good news is that MAB, despite one brutal icing, played a pretty neutral game in his own end. He still got scared when fore-chekers were coming at him, but he took steps to ensure nothing too catastrophic happened. Offensively, however, he had an amazing game. In all he took over 1/4 of our total shots (8), played for 21 minutes, was +3 and, oh ya, he scored 2 goals including the game-winner.

Goaltender

Carey Price
Carey's play continues. Tonight he wasn't dominant, but he did do very well early on to keep the goals to 3 or less. Columbus out-worked and out-chanced us in the opening 40 minutes and Price ensured that the game was always going to be ours if we wanted it. I find that one big improvement for him has been the way in which he is taking the initial shot. He is smothering pucks better, directing them into corners with a higher frequency and seems to be better positioned in the first place to receive these shots.


Comments


When you think of what our team was supposed to be back at the end of September it may surprise you to read tonight's line-up card. How about these names - Wyman, White, Pyatt, Chipchura, S. Kostitsyn, Pacioretty, Leach, Begeron, O'Byrne. That is 9 players, of 19, that we didn't expect to be in our 'ideal' line-up. Well, with injuries and departures this is our reality. And, you know what, we are making it work. Tonight was a good example of how hard work does pay off. Over the course of the first two periods we were out-played by a more talented team. Our best elements (Cammalleri, Plekanec and Price) kept us in the game, however. Then the third period was all about hard work and persistence. We kept coming and Columbus just couldn't hold on. Once the third started you could feel a goal was coming. The funny thing, however, is that after we scored that feeling didn't go away, it remained for the rest of the game.

There is a big test tomorrow and I think a point (even a hard-fought 1-goal loss) would prove that this team can indeed play with the big boys after all. I do think that with good goaltending and a solid work ethic (even Sergei had that tonight) we can certainly continue on this current upward trend.

Friday, November 07, 2008

Game #11

Losing With 45 Seconds to go? Yeah, I'll Take the Point

The Canadiens Game in Review

Date: Saturday November 7th, 2008
Opponent: Columbus Blue Jackets
Venue: Nassau Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH

Team Stripes

Final Score: 3-4 - Loss (SO)

Habs starting goalie: Jaroslav Halak (L)
Opposition starting goalie: Steve Mason (W)

Habs goalscorers: Alex Tanguay, Patrice Brisebois, Sergei Kostitsyn
Opposition goalscorers: R.J. Umberger, Marc Methot, Fredrik Modin, (Kristian Huselius, Derick Brassard - SO)




Play of the game
The play you're straining to see on the press catwalk monitor...

Remember when (constantly) the Montreal media needed a player on one of the top 3 lines to pick on? It seems that if each player doesn't have at least 10 points by now there is something wrong. Well, the target this week was 2-goal scorer Sergei Kostitsyn. He supplied the play of the game tonight to give him 3 on the year, a respectable 22-goal pace - not bad for a 21 year old with 62 games of NHL experience who is playing on the third line.

The goal was sweet and timely. Carbo went with the Kostitsyn boys centered by Plekanec to end the game as Kovy had just been on with Saku. The goal itself was a nice brother-to-brother pass and bagged the Habs a point. I call it clutch.



Game puck
Trophies are for the end of the year, play well in the game, you get a lovely puck...

Alexei Kovalev
Kovy had a few giveaways tonight, but then again, who didn't. He was really slick with the puck all night and probably deserved a lot more than his single assist. Like I said last year your best shooters have to be #1 & #2 in the shootout. Kovy was slated to be third, but never got to shoot. No offence to Tanguay or Andrei, but I would have preferred to see Kovy have a go, especially after the way he had been handling the puck all night. Putting one of your best shooters #3 (and leaving your best off - Koivu) is stupid really, because what if the other team scores their first 2 and you don't?



Dome hockey team
We're going into the last minute with these 6 (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...

Forwards

Andrei Kostitsyn
Over the past couple of games we have seen a little more flair from Andrei. Tonight he played his best towards the end of the game and I had a sense that he was our best shot at a late goal. I think he is still a little timid after the big hit he took a few games ago, but at least seemed to be using his body a bit more than in the past couple of games.

Alexei Kovalev
Alex must love playing against defences of this calibre. Yes, Columbus beat us, but come on, it had nothing to do with their D. After games against Florida, Carolina, the Islanders and Columbus it looks like Kovy should have a pretty fun year. As Sam Roberts would say, 'Where Have All the Good Defences Gone?'

Tomas Plekanec
Pleks put together a nice little third period for himself and even did well in OT, until his 'penalty' that is. He had 2 assists in the final frame and was instrumental on our tying goal. He may have failed to register a shot, but was one of our more creative and offensively-dangerous players tonight.

Defencemen

Francis Bouillon
Bou was a rock tonight, he played over 18 minutes of good, mistake-free hockey. He threw a team-high 5 hits and was our only defenceman not to be on the ice for a goal against. I am happy that his minutes are up, but still think he could be a 18-21 minute-man.

Mike Komisarek
Let's get one thing straight - Komi is no offensive defenceman. He looked quite out of place a few times tonight as he tried stuff in the offensive zone that is well beyond his means. If we look past that, which in his case we must, you can see a solid 'one-way' defender. He is a true stay-at-home defenceman (unlike Brisebois, who we just wish would stay at home) who played a very good game in his own end tonight. He had a quiet night in the shot-block department, but did make a very key block on a late penalty-kill that at least gave us the chance to go for 2 points.

Goaltender

Carey Price
Not the game I was expecting from Halak. He looked very uncomfortable all night and the fact that he only let in 3 goals probably makes it seem like he had a better game than he did. I didn't like his rebound-control, positioning (committed on shots way too early) or his confidence. I thought that he looked very rusty in the shootout on 2 shots that should have been saved. Tonight I go with Price, because after all this is Columbus and 3 goals for should be plenty.



Eye-Openers
In this new section we are going to try and shed some light on certain plays or events that would otherwise go unnoticed

I am happy that we got a point tonight, but come on, how stupid is that extra point? A point for losing! The object of the game has become not simply 'don't lose', but instead, don't lose during a certain portion of the game.

Do you remember when they brought in the bonus point for losing? It was about 10 years ago when ties were still fashionable. This of course was also before the shootout. The reason that the OT Loss Point was brought it was to encourage teams to go for the win as the league deemed too many teams were simply playing OT not to lose, thus there were too many ties. The NHL, in their never-ending quest to change the game, thought it would be better if teams went all out for 5 minutes (after 60 minutes of stale-mate hockey) if they knew they literally had nothing to lose. It made the losing team feel better, but made everyone else in the conference feel worse. Think of it, your two division rivals are playing each other on your night off and they both catch you in the standings.

Well, then came the shootout - hockey's answer to NFL OT (a stupid way to end any game). It meant that every night there would be exactly 1 winner and 1 loser per game. No more ties (thank goodness for that, it was making me feel too European), just 65 minutes of excitement followed by a 5-minute ice clean and then a very non-exciting climax to end your game. So instead of dangling the extra-point carrot in front of teams' noses during OT the NHL was eating the carrot themselves and forcing a win no matter what. So, can someone please tell me, why do we still have the extra point? It used to be to encourage people to try and win in OT, it is now a way to encourage them to get to OT. The same type of hockey that the NHL wanted to avoid in OT all those years ago is now happening in the last 5 minutes of regulation (traditionally the best portion of the game) as no team wants to miss their chance at a free point. I am sure the geniuses that brought us 4-minute high-sticking penalties and dives/trips as one call would have a very good answer for this, but after 3 years I haven't heard it. It couldn't be that the NHL really has no clue what they are doing, could it?


Overall Comments

Why is it that teams look worse after 5 days off than 20 hours? Probably because hockey players should be playing hockey. This was our second 5-day break of the season already, the season that is only 4 weeks old. From now on, however, you should get used to watching and reading a lot about the Habs. We just started a stretch of 13 games in 23 nights after which we should be able to gauge exactly where we are as a team and where the rest of the league really is too.

The game itself tonight wasn't bad, apart from a mediocre second period. I assume that teams like Columbus, with a fan base in the 4-digit range, are used to non-energetic spells in their games, but I'm not. The Habs had a big chance during that second period to go up and stay up, but, like the BJs, we got caught napping all over the ice. It took a Patrice Brisebois point-shot to wake both teams up in the third and finally the fans were treated to some good hockey again. Maybe this is a game that we should have won, but more importantly it was a game that we shouldn't lose, in regulation that is. As long as the league wants to hand out points for failure I am in. I can tolerate losing, but you must admit it softens the blow when you are rewarded for it.

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Making Our Own Destiny

As you all know, we have now clinched a top-two position in the East. Barring a surprise dip in Pittsburgh's form, that probably means we'll be second.

It also means we have guaranteed ourselves home-ice advantage for at least two rounds of the playoffs, and that we will not be facing Pittsburgh in round 1 or round 2. I think that constitutes good news. The last time Pittsburgh were a top team and we were safe for two rounds, I think we know what happened (thank you Glen Healy).

It's worth noting also that winning the division is no small feat. Consider this:

A) We have not won the division since 1992

B) We have not won the division since realignment from Adams and Patrick division days

C) Since 1992, we have not even placed in the top 2 teams in our division: we were 4 thirds, 7 fourths!!, 2 fifths and 1 sixth (behind even Hartford)

D) Since the 1992 season, every team that has ever been our division has won a division title: Ottawa 4 (1999, 2001, 2003, 2006), Boston 3 (1993, 2002, 2004), Pittsburgh 3 (1994, 1996, 1998), Buffalo 2 (1997, 2007), Quebec 1 (1995), Toronto 1 (2000), and even Carolina (several times since moving)

E) Since 1992, only 7 teams other than the Habs have failed to win a division title – we were in the company of Florida, Islanders, LA, Phoenix, Minnesota, Edmonton, Columbus and Nashville until last night. All those teams but Columbus have at least mustered a second place a few times


Playoff match-up

Because of our win, Washington's win and Toronto's crumple, we are still picking from a hat on playoff opponents – any one of 8 Eastern teams could still be booking a trip to Montreal Trudeau.

Assuming a 2nd place finish, a look at the standings will tell you our most likely opponents will be Ottawa, Boston or Philadelphia. Of the three, who would we as fans prefer? Who would the players prefer?

Everyone will be quick to say Boston, but I would guard against thinking Boston in the playoffs would be a inept as Boston in the regular season. Quebec owned us in 1992-1993 and even drove in a couple more nails in Games 1 and 2, but we learned and bounced back. I am strangely wary of teams we beat 8 times in the season.

Then there's Philly. We beat them every game too, but somehow it never felt that the Flyers were cursed in some way. It felt like they were slow and beatable. I like the Flyers better as opponents.

Then there's the Sens. You know, since the Sens stopped trying to emulate the 76-77 Canadiens, they have been a different team. Prior to that point, they had beaten us 3 times in 3 games. Since their slip, we have beaten them 3 times in 5 games. We clinched the playoffs against them. We clinched first place against them. In other words, we have done big things in big games against them. I still see the Sens as the worst choice of the three (and bottom half of the 8), but that win last night changed my mind on total avoidance of all things Ottawa in April.


Aside

If nothing else, a playoff match-up with the Senators should make for an interesting media encounter. Bloggers like me will also enjoy rebuffing the ignorance of certain reporters:

IT MAKES YOU GO HMMM

The Canadiens really aren't very Canadian, are they? Only five of them were born in one of this country's provinces that doesn't start with a 'Q.' (By comparison, the Senators have 16 of those fellows). While others like to sprinkle their rosters with tough, gritty Western Canadian kids, the Habs have neglected to do so.


Sorry to alarm you Mr. Brennan, but even those players from the provinces beginning with Q are Canadian. In fact, a little history will show you that the particular spelling of the team name (French, not an error like incorrect pluralisation) specifically refers to Canadians from La Belle Province.

Besides that obvious argument, Brennan forgot to note that while teams may typically sprinkle their teams with players from Western Canada, we chose to take the atypical route and beat 26 of those teams (including the Senators). In the very same way, the Habs have been able to show (for the first time in ages) that they don't care who they are facing, they will be able to (at least over 3 or 4 games) pull out a good effort and win.

So, banishing thoughts of "cheating" and strategic losing, opponents be damned, these are the first place Canadiens.

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Game #63

Gainey and Leclaire Steal the Show

The Canadiens Game in Review

Date: Saturday February 23rd, 2008
Opponent: Columbus Blue Jackets
Venue: Bell Centre, Montreal, QC


Team Stripes


Final Score: 0-3 - Loss

Habs starting goalie: Carey Price (L)
Opposition starting goalie: Pascal Leclaire (W)

Habs goalscorers: None
Opposition goalscorers: Rick Nash, Andrew Murray, Manny Malhotra



2007/08 first
There's a first time for everything, so they say. What they didn't tell you is that every game, something happens for the first time, you just have to look harder in March...

1st Time that Bob Gainey has skated in a Habs jersey since 1989



Play of the game
The play you're straining to see on the press catwalk monitor...

The play of the game actually happened before the game tonight. It was when Bob Gainey's #23 was raised to the rafters to the roar of the Montreal faithful. It was an honour that was well deserved for the former captain. This will surely rank up there as a career highlight for the Hall of Famer who has bled Bleu, Blanc et Rouge for over 35 years. Unfortunately there was no play made by any current Habs that could top this one tonight, and I mean no play.



Game puck
Trophies are for the end of the year, play well in the game, you get a lovely puck...

Francis Bouillon

He was one of a select group of Habs that played with any sort of spirit tonight. Francis can't offer too much in the skill department, but he made up for that with his effort. He was as mobile as ever and played strong in his own end.



Dome hockey team
We're going into the last minute with these 6 (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...

Forwards

Sergei Kostitsyn
- This kid never gave up all night, he just kept going and going. He is still a little rough around the edges, but should be fine if he continues to give efforts like this one

Saku Koivu
- Saku played with a lot of heart and grit tonight. He got very involved in the corners and along the boards and was often our best player on the ice at any given time

Mark Streit
- Could this be Mark's last game as a Hab? I sure hope not. Whether or not he plays D doesn't matter at the end of the day; I would rather have him as a forward then not at all. He was fast tonight and played well on D when he had to

Defencemen

Francis Bouillon
- Franc is putting together quite a good stretch; he has probably been our top defenceman over the past month. The play of Markov and Komi has left me scratching my head a little bit and that is why I am forever grateful that Bou has stepped it up

Roman Hamrlik
- I liked the way Roman played tonight. He does exactly what Gainey did his whole career - leads by example. Right now O'Byrne is benefiting so much from the vast experience of the former #1 draft pick and he will hopefully one day progress as much as Phaneuf did under Roman's tutelage. Hammer pinched up into the play tonight, but he always did so at the appropriate time, never getting caught

Goaltender

Carey Price
- Carey had 2 weak goals against him, but he did what I asked and that was to let up 3 goals or less. I still think that Price has a better mental game when he is being challenged. Every time that we declare him our #1 it hurts his game - and incidentally Huet's too. I would expect Huet to get the start against Atlanta in a game that I think will now be declared a must win



Eyes on Kovalev
Did he flit and float? Someone ought to keep track...

Alex wasn't given much space to work with tonight, but he did the best he could given the circumstances. His linemates really dropped the ball tonight and cost him an assist or two. He ended the game at -3, but that stat is deceptive as none of the goals were his fault. He didn't make any mistakes himself tonight, but at the same time didn't steal the show.

Kovalev's Assessment - Average


Overall Comments

I thought that for the most part we played better than Columbus tonight. We didn't play that well, but we played better than them. What we lacked was finish and luck - both of which may have been used up mid-week. After watching the Blue Jackets play a few times this year I have come to the conclusion that they aren't that great of a team. Leclaire may have 9 shutouts, but again I don't believe he is that great. He seemed to get lucky tonight so I am assuming that he likely has luck on his side this year (If you disagree that he isn't great see his career stats). Much like teams such as the Islanders and the Panthers, Columbus will win games like this and then go on epic losing streaks.. At the end of the day we got unlucky against a middle of the pack team and although it stings, it is bound to happen once in a while. I must say, however, that I am sick of french players, goalies in particular, shining in Montreal - often having their best games of the season. Aren't these guys meant to be Habs fans? Are they upset we didn't draft them? What exactly are they trying to prove? The one thing I do know is that we don't want to face a french goalie in the early stages of the playoffs - that means avoiding the Devils and Brodeur.

The week ahead will be a big one for the Habs. First off, before any games, is the trade deadline. It will be interesting to see what Bob has in store for us on Tuesday, but I am sure that whatever moves he makes won't be shortsighted. I am confidant that he will value the team's long term success more than trying to make himself like the 'winner' of the day. At 3pm on Tuesday we will know the players that we are going to war with for the next 19+ games. There are 3 games next week and I think we have put ourselves in a position where we have to win 2 (or at least get 4 points). Flirting with first place is one thing that I can deal with, whereas flirting with eighth is not.