Game #77Montreal Can Breathe a Little After Solid Team Effort

Details

Date: 29/3/2011
Opponent: Thrashers
Location: Montreal

Win: 3-1

Habs Goalie: Price (W)
Opposition Goalie: Pavelec (L)

Habs goalscorers: Hamrlik, Darche, Kostitsyn
Opposition goalscorers: Antropov

Play of the game

Price made a great save on Byfuglien in the first minute of play. The Habs came out a bit slow and Atlanta came out strong. That chance was a result of us not quite being ready for their urgency. The save, however, calmed things right down and perhaps saved the game for us. After that the Habs took control of the game and it was much nicer to be able to do that being tied at 0-0 than being down 0-1.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Andrei Kostitsyn
He played a good solid game and was very involved physically. The chances weren't there as much as they have been, but I felt that it was always a positive shift when he and his linemates were on. He did, however, get a goal right at the end, a goal that sealed it; it was an empty-netter from his own blue-line, his 20th of the year.

Mathieu Darche
Darche was at his best tonight. It was for games like this that we re-signed in and why we let Lapierre go. It had been a tough return from injury, but after missing 5 weeks I can't say that I am surprised. Tonight he was a weapon to be reckoned with in the offensive zone and, once again, played smart hockey.

Scott Gomez
Scott was our best centre tonight, just ahead of Desharnais (didn't see anything too special from Pleks). He was on right from his first shift and set a good example for others to follow. This is the type of play that will help us in the playoffs - speed, aggression, passes and the ability to get under his opponents' skin.

Defencemen

Roman Hamrlik
I had a feeling that someone like Hammer (my instinct, for some reason, said Sopel) would score the goal that we had all been waiting for. It was a good team goal and with four people in as close as they were you could tell how badly we wanted it. Aside from the goal Hammer played a solid, reliable game as he logged the second most ice on the team. Tonight may have been a reminder from him and to us fans that he is still our #1. Who knows what will happen in the future, but for now it seems like he will do his best to lead us throughout the remainder of the season.

James Wisniewski
Wide-open games against a weak defensive team is the type of game that James must love - at least it looks that way. I am not sure if he will be as effective as he was tonight against tighter (playoff) competition, but I am sure he'll still find a way to contribute. The good thing is we have Hammer, Subban and Gill ahead of him who are ready to carry huge loads. Add to that the fact that Mara and Sopel have been decent, Weber and Picard can do the job and Spacek will, if he is healthy, be well rested and all of a sudden our D seems to be in good shape (just imagine Markov and Gorges were around).

Goaltender

Carey Price - Game Puck
On a normal night beating the Thrashers 3-1 at home wouldn't be a big deal. But, after 3 straight shutouts and in need of points for the plyoffs this game was huge. Carey knew this and did not let anyone down. In fact, this game was a shutout whether the NHL believes it was or not (once again 4 men miss an obvious play by the puck-carrier) and that just shows how key Price is. We have 5 more games and with 3 points likely being enough I would like to see Carey sit 1, maybe 2 of those just to be safe.

Comments

I am not going to say that all is good and that we are back on track, but there are certainly some positives here. First off, however, Atlanta are a pretty weak team (when compared with the current competition in the East), maybe only slightly better than Florida, Ottawa and the Islanders. So, beating them, at home, is more like a must than a big deal. Add to that the fact that they played like a team that was already on vacation and that makes this win not that special. What is important to note, however, is that the Habs did play a good game and I think that this was true despite Atlanta. The significance of this isn't the win, but the fact that we had played 2, maybe 3, pretty passionless games over the past week. We had looked tired, out of ideas and sloppy, but tonight looked re-energized and ready for what lay ahead. So, it doesn't matter who the opponent was or what the score was as it was the effort that mattered.

Tomorrow is our last back-to-back game of the season and after that we'll have 4 games in 10 nights. Hopefully we'll get enough points to breathe even easier next week so that we'll be able to rest (either by press-box, limiting ice-time or giving easier assignments) some key players. It is looking like our last two games (in Ottawa and in Toronto) will (thanks to all the other games that will be played by then) simply be for form and placement as I anticipate us being in and both of them being out by then. That means we have one week to make it count and then a pretty easy 7-9 days as we wait for the real season to get going.

Game #64Not Pretty, But Habs Get Their Points

Details

Date: 1/3/2011
Opponent: Thrashers
Location: Atlanta

Win: 3-1

Habs Goalie: Price (W)
Opposition Goalie: Mason (L)

Habs goalscorers: Pacioretty, Wisniewski, Gionta
Opposition goalscorers: Antropov

Play of the game

Price played fantastic and kept us in this game throughout, but I couldn't think of one single stop by him that won this one for us. So, I have to go with the empty-netter, the goal that essentially gave us 2 points and them none. Gomez made a great play to knock the puck out of the zone and into Gionta's path. The captain then showed great speed and determination to get to the puck before Bogosian. A quick chip at it looked easy enough and gave the Habs their third.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Max Pacioretty
Max was the quickest Hab out there tonight and exposed the Thrashers D on a few separate occasions. He scored his twelfth of the season on a shot that wasn't his best chance of the game, but that seemed to have eyes. He should bag 15 this year and it should be interesting to see how close to 20 he'll get.

Brian Gionta
Brian played the most of any forward tonight and I felt that he deserved his ice-time. It was a bit of an off-game for Pleks and his crew, so it was nice to see Gio's line answer the call. That goal was his 23rd and he may very well hit 30 this year which would be quite something considering the start that he had.

David Desharnais
I am happy that David stood out tonight. The fourth line is kind of getting left behind, but it seems that if you play well you will be rewarded; case and point was his PP ice-time. Martin put Pleks at the point on the first wave and that freed up the centre spot for David. He made his presence felt by notching a crucial assist on the Wis' goal. He was also very strong at face-offs, going 11-2.

Defencemen

Hal Gill
Very strong on the PK and stayed out of trouble all game in his own end. He is playing very soundly right now and seems to be the perfect fit for our boy PK.

James Wisniewski
I am really happy that we didn't trade James yesterday as some had predicted. He not only can shoot, but, as we saw tonight, also has some serious moves. I also feel that his physical play and positioning are good enough to take a regular shift at even-strength. Along with PK and the Hammer we have a decent top-4 as we head down the stretch. Sopel, Mara, Weber, Spacek and Picard should give us some options and assurance too, for what will hopefully be at least another 2 full months of hockey.

Goaltender

Carey Price - Game Puck
It was throw back night in Atlanta. Back to a time when the Habs used to play in front of 500 people and another time (last year) when we used to let up 40+ shots with regularity. Just like Halak did for us last year Price seemed to welcome the added shot-load. He looked so good in his net that I was very shocked to see one go in. This game was a nice bounce back after being sick for a couple of days.

Comments

Atlanta played like a team desperate to make the playoffs; we played like a team that belongs in them. Sure, they had more chances and shots, but we seemed to be the team that handles the pressure better. Had it not been for Price we would have lost. That is a true statement, but we have Price, we have him, like that, in almost every game. That is like saying that the Caps without Ovechkin couldn't win or the Sens with a goalie could. Our team is built to rely on solid goaltending and tonight we exercised that right. For some reason we never play that well in Atlanta (I think it may be due to the lack of emotion or excitement in that building) so it was nice to take the win. We have two very winnable games coming up this week in Florida and I would like to get the 4 points. 2 wouldn't be a disaster, but now could be the time to really solidify our spot as I feel that we are clicking enough to make the full 4 a reality.

NHL Goes All FIFA On Florida

Last night, the Florida Panthers scored a goal to tie the game late in the third period. The replay showed the goal was in. The most entertaining bit being that the puck was lodged in the net, so the evidence was not fleeting, but lasting for the refs to see.

The pig-headed team of four (still 4 to deliver this standard? Really?) ignored the protests of the adamant Panthers, took the puck retrieved from the net by Pavelec and started play without calling TO. I can forgive the refs for a lot in a fast moving game, but refusing to check the validity of goals is not one of those things.

Disallowed goals are fun to rewatch. So to mark the occasion, here are a few big ones:

Last night:




Calgary for the Cup?




Calgary's goal not in?




FIFA's big miss:



The good news for the Habs is that this wasn't a three-point game. In all likelihood both Atlanta and Florida will be figuring in where the Canadiens place this season.

Game #40 When A Habs Loss Is A Win

Details

Date: 02/01/2011
Opponent: Thrashers
Location: Montreal

Loss: 3-4 (OT)

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Pavelec (W)

Habs goalscorers: Plekanec, Subban, Gionta
Opposition goalscorers: Peverley, Kane, Ladd, Byfuglien

Play of the game

When the Habs needed goals, they got goals. All were timely and game-changing, but none was more rife with skill than the Plekanec beauty. A good pass turned into a great one as Pleks split the D with a quick burst (his rediscovered quick feet helping there) and with a deke and puck protection he arrived in front of goal with nothing to do but put a perfect shot just below the cross bar - the only opening available to him.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Tomas Plekanec
Back to his absolute best form of the season. He was creative, dangerous and dominant at times. It's amazing what can happen when he doesn't have to kill 10 minutes of penalties in a game.

Scott Gomez
The best forwards came to play, Scott wasn't an omission this time. 5 shots of his very own, many dangerous, and a massive contribution to the game which resulted in territorial dominance for most of the first 60 minutes. Let's hope this is him building for the rest of the season.

Brian Gionta - Game Puck
It would take a tour de force to displace Pleks for the Game Puck. 13 efforts, 9 on net, the tying goal and a third period that probably ranks as his best of the season in terms of offensive chances - he delivered.

Defencemen

James Wisniewski
Whoknewski? That's his new name, that's how I feel. I thought he was getting points on the Islanders because, after all, someone had to. Turns out he was getting them because he can play, and man can he shoot. He set up that Plekanec goal with a simple, but important pass. He got a second assist. And, one shot of his had no business not going in. He's the tonic the PP needed and so far looks like someone who might be able to give the vets a rest at the back. A very nice addition.

Roman Hamrlik
A pretty good game from the big man. Sometimes he was just being good at the back end. Sometimes he was in the offensive zone forechecking and keeping up the zone dominance. It wasn't a clean sheet, but it was a good balanced game from Roman.

Goaltender

Alex Auld
Just another off game from Carey. He's not run out of good will currency yet, but I might advise him again to think back to October and whatever inspired him to completely flatten all doubters, because he doesn't look the same on the ice right now. As for this dome, I just can't give it to him. He made some big saves that ultimately preserved the points and prolonged the Habs challenge, but some of that with thanks to posts and Thrashers misses. A good break may be just what he needs. With a break scheduled in, it's what he'll get.

Comments

When is a loss a win? Well, when your team that has been outplayed for the last 10 games outplays a playoff rival, it's a start. When your team outshoots, outchances, outposesses the opposition. When your team, which has a dismal record when behind in games, comes back three times and just about wins it. When your team used to getting twenty penalty minutes a night, makes on slip in regulation.

When that loss can be included in later revelling about games with points.

It's easy to be negative about losing all the time. Occasionally the result does not reflect the game. This game was a case in point. The Canadiens dominated, had the better chances and did OK. There were breakdowns at the back, but no more for the Habs than the Thrashers. We know Gorges is injured, Price can be a lot better and that Cammalleri and Kostitsyn may one day score again. The game for me felt like the pendulum was starting to swing back the other way. Maybe not the perfect start to the New Year, but better than many other options.

Game #23Canadiens Get Their Rest For Tomorrow's Game

Details

Date: 26/11/2010
Opponent: Thrashers
Location: Atlanta

Loss: 0-3

Habs Goalie: Auld (L)
Opposition Goalie: Pavelec (W)

Habs goalscorers: None
Opposition goalscorers: Peverley (2), Enstrom

Play of the game

You don't often get credit for doing nothing, but, in a game when the whole team does nothing, Auld's stone-cold breakaway strategy worked for me. At the time, we were down by one and Atlanta wasn't playing well enough to have me thinking that we were out of it. A Ladd breakaway had me nervous, but Auld did well to out-wait the speedy Thrasher. A shot over the net kept the game close and gave the team a chance to rebound.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Andrei Kostitsyn
A few nice plays and attempts on goal were noticed tonight as I felt that the effort was there. I know he can play better, but the margin between his best and tonight's performance was not as great as that of most of the other Habs.

Tomas Plekanec
He never stopped trying and his fight versus Kane was well appreciated. I like that, no matter the situation, he tries, maybe not his best, but there is still effort.

Brian Gionta
Hitting the back of the net would have be welcomed, but 4 shots on net and a certain feistiness towards the end of the game showed good spirit from the skipper.

Defencemen

Roman Hamrlik
By default the Czech brothers (and their tight slacks) are back in here tonight. In reality, Hamrlik was our best in this game and was probably the only one who wasn't bad at times.

Jaroslav Spacek
Subban - bad, no moustache; Picard - below average, no moustache; Gorges - bad, brutal moustache; Gill - brutal, bad-ass moustache. Sadly, Gill almost got in here based on the moustache alone; shows what type of game this was.

Goaltender

Alex Auld - Game Puck
Auld played well tonight and was the only real bright spot on the team. Tonight shows me that he is worthy of getting some more work as I believe that he can be trusted. I would have liked saves on one or two of those goals, but, when we think of it, two of them were pretty unlucky. He was also the busiest Hab as he made 44 ssaves on 47 shots.

Comments

It was a hard game to watch tonight, but games like this happen. The bottom line is that we didn't need the points, this loss won't derail us and we know that tomorrow we have the ability to play like the best team in the league. I am not thrilled with what I saw, but after the hot start I am willing to let this game go and not worry one bit. Buffalo, on a Saturday, at home, is the priority; tonight will be forgotten very, very fast.

Tanking For A Pick Why The Habs Should Keep Winning

A win on the books has done little to turn minds away from tanking. Some analysts feel quite strongly about their ability to see the future months of 2010, so much so that the "towel", they insist, must still be thrown in.

I take issue with that argument for a few reasons. Some of which I elaborate on here.


The missing argument

When people advocate the tank, they always point to the Pittsburgh Penguins as the poster child. Pittsburgh drafted in the top 5 for 5 consecutive years on the backs of some horrible seasons. This landed them Staal, Crosby, Malkin, Fleury and Whitney. It seems a convincing argument, but how much more valid is it than saying a team should wear red to win, or a team should acquire Scott Niedermayer to win. It's not pure coincidence, we can see that. But while Pittsburgh turned their losing into winning, does that mean tanking is a reliable method?

The counter argument is often missed. That is, that teams that have been bottom of the league for nearly a generation have been enjoying near the same frequency of high draft picks as Pitssburgh, yet not turning that into results they can be proud of.

Take the Florida Panthers. You may remember them from lottery draws from nearly every year in living memory. Their most recent go-around in the land of top 5 picks was from 2001 to 2003. In 2001, they selected Stephen Weiss 4th overall. In 2002, Bouwmeester first. Then in 2003, after winning the lottery they traded down to pick Nathan Horton at 3rd. Their next season in the "build" phase, it was Rotislav Olesz at 7th. So that's 4 years building through the draft with results many in Montreal would consider unacceptable. And where has it left them? Last time I checked they missed the playoffs in 2008-09 and are in the thick of the race to miss again.

Florida's not alone. Columbus clocked up Klesla and Zherdev in the top 5 to go with Nash in building their version of the playoff evaders. Atlanta, famous for never winning a playoff game in their history also show a disturbing trend, even selecting well in Heatley and Kovalchuk, can't build a winner (at least in part due to duds Lehtonen and Stefan as top 5 picks). The San Jose Sharks may look like an example to follow now, but their success is mostly down to industry in trades and not due to selecting Andrei Zyuzin, Patrick Marleau then Brad Stuart to affect their outcomes. I could go on (hello Winnipeg).

Tanking is no guarantee for success. the only thing tanking does guarantee is a high pick and lots of losses. After that, you need more on your side – either good scouting or luck.


Franchise players

The premise of tanking as a legitimate strategy is nothing new. In the days of certain draft position, scouting departments could identify certain gems of players (Mario Lemieux, Mats Sundin, Eric Lindros, etc.) that were worth turning in a season for. And although we've been in a rich vein of drafts of late, the reality of the draft is that it's a hit or miss affair.

I had a look back at the drafts from 1990 to 2005 (supposing that 2006 draftees on are too young yet) and did some sums. What I found was that:

– In total there were 15 franchise players to be had (with some generous assessments in there) from the first round.

– Only one draft had three franchise players (1991) and 4 had two

– 6 franchise players were taken with the #1 pick

– There were only 5 franchise players taken from picks #2-5 in 16 years, compared to 4 with picks #6 to the end of the round that year


So franchise players don't come along every year, and they rarely more than one at once. What's more, you have almost as much chance nabbing one with any other pick in the first round as with one in the top 5. This is interesting enough, but then consider great players – players who once you get a few together can be the foundations of a great team.

– Only 37.5% of picks in the top 5 turned into players I judge to be great or better

– Only 34% of picks #2-5 turned into players I judge to be great or better

– Every year of the draft has produced one player great or better outside the top 5, 2003 produced multiple

– 2 years the top 5 has not produced a player great or better


That's an awfully big percentage of picks who may be able NHLers but won't fulfill the dream of tanking for Cups. Plus, good scouts show that they don't need a good pick to get the right player (and I'm not even including round 2 on).

One final thing:

– Recent drafts have been good producing 4 or 5 good to franchise players from the top 5 picks

– A run of drafts from 1991 to 1996 never produced more than 3 good to franchise players (meaning at least 2 were mediocre to poor). 1994 had four duds and 1996 only had 2 good players in the top 5, nothing more.


A better way

As you know by now, I see tanking as a highly flawed strategy that relies on a fair amount of luck and certainly timing. I think there must be a better way.

Generally, I think there is. It is demonstrated by teams like Detroit, like New Jersey, like San Jose. What these teams have shown is that attention to detail, attention to player development and shrewd management along the way can outdo and outpace the tanking strategy 9 times out of 10.

By committing to winning in Hamilton and hopefully Montreal, Gainey and his team can grow the winning mentality over time. Though they may miss the Rick Nash every once in a while, by teaching an ethic, they can make their Plekanecs into more effective players over the long run.

For me, tanking is out. I'd much prefer the Molsons to sink whatever windfalls they get form the playoffs into more men like Guy Boucher and more and better amateur and pro scouts.

When it comes to games that remain – win them all if you can. Try to win them all, no question. More good will come of 25 games of a team gelling and pulling in one direction than a 34% chance at a great player.


Draft lottery

On a final note, and as we're on the topic of the draft.

There are a lot of misconceptions about the draft lottery. My own were born of the fact I assumed I knew what was going on, so never really looked into it. As I had a look, I found out some interesting things many of you must already know, but some of you might find blow assumptions away:

1) There is only one pick determined by lottery. Once that lottery has taken place, all other picks proceed in the reverse order of the standings.

2) All teams who don't make the playoffs are in the lottery. However, the rule that a team can only move up 4 places means only the bottom 5 can actually win the 1st overall pick. Not being in the bottom five, however, does not preclude you from winning the lottery. So a team in 7th can win the lottery, but that team will only actually move up to 3rd in the draft.

3) A team can only move down one place, but this is obvious given the first finding.

This has interesting implications. The team in 5th from last can only pick 1st, 5th or 6th in actual fact. They can never acquire the 2nd, 3rd or 4th picks, because a team can't move up less than 4 places so long as there are places to move ahead. The 5thfrom last team has best odds of picking 5th (74.7%), but actually has a better chance of picking 6th (17.2%) than 1st (8.1%). The team in last is often said to have a 25% of winning the lottery, but given they retain the first pick if any team from 6th to 14th from the bottom win the lottery, they actually have a 48.2% chance of winning the first pick.

Game #38Montreal's Stars Complete Unlikely Comeback

Details

Date: 21/12/09
Opponent: Thrashers
Location: Atlanta


Win: 4-3

Habs Goalie: Halak (W)
Opposition Goalie: Hedberg (L)

Habs goalscorers: Plekanec, A. Kostitsyn, Bergeron (2)
Opposition goalscorers: Kovalchuk, Antropov (2)

Play of the game

Halak made some game-savers in the third and OT and our OT goal was quite something, but, for me, the play of the game was the tying goal. I could sense that the Habs were going to score midway through the third and I thought that all they had to do was avoid letting Atlanta go up by two. Andrei Kostitsyn, therefore, cut it very close by taking a slashing penalty with 4:32 to play. Luckily our penalty-killers got the job done, again, and we now had a 2-minute window. Furious at himself (I hope), it was Andrei who, fresh out of the box, drew a PP of our own. We then went to work, our 5 best players, and it didn't take long. The goal itself was a bomb from the point (Bergeron's 8th) which was the end result of some very slick passing from Plekanec and Markov.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome


Forwards

Tomas Plekanec - Game Puck
4 more points for our top player and all of a sudden he has outscored his last year's self. Last season he put up 39 points and wasn't half the player that he is now. Was it because Koivu left? Kovalev? Did he need a player like Cammalleri? I have heard them all, but I don't think those are why. I believe the reasons are that he is finally using his speed, his coach is finally using him in more key situations and he is super confident in himself. It would be nice to see him get 80+ and even better to see Gainey sign him soon.

Mike Cammaelleri
Mike picked up 2 assists tonight, both of which were world-class passes. He seems to know exactly how to find his linemates on the ice as all three seem very comfortable with each other. He only had 2 shots himself and didn't quite look like he was going to score, but you can rest assured that he was a big part of all 4 of our goals as he is lending quite the hand to Plekanec as they guide our offence.

Andrei Kostitsyn
Kostitsyn ended the game with a single point, a goal, but was right there for goals 1 and 3. On our first goal he made a very nice play to let a pass go right by him towards Pleks. Many players may have stabbed at that loose puck, but Andrei didn't and the result was a confused goalie and a tie game. He was later in front of the net, causing problems, creating a screen and waiting for a potential rebound when the third goal went in. So, you can see how points don't always tell the whole story; they often miss the subtleties that help to create the goals.

Defencemen

Andrei Markov
Markov was on the ice for 3 of our goals and 1 of theirs, but, whenever he is on, I feel more confident than I have all season. Tonight he really did it all as he hit, led the team in takeaways, led the team in ice-time, picked up his first assist of the year and was, quite simply, our best all-around defender. It is quite something to have him back as this year really felt like the new Habs and that, for the most part, hadn't included him.

Marc-Andre Bergeron
He may have seen some time as a forward tonight, but it was as a defenceman that he shone. He very nearly took game-puck status as he managed to score both the tying and winning goals - both in dramatic fashion. His shot from the point continues to be a major threat and has to be placed amongst the best in the league. It may not have the power of a Souray shot (although I would bet he could go 98.0+ mph), but boy does it get through. Accuracy and timeliness are his main strengths and, unlike some players, he doesn't always try the shot. His OT goal showed that he is more than a shot, that while playing offence he has the skating and hands to get it done.

Goaltender

Jaroslav Halak
There were 3 goals against and 3 posts, but let's not forget that there were 50 shots. That means that in 2 games he has saved almost 97% of his close to 100 shots; not too shabby. I am not, however, basing this on last game, just this one. He was good enough for the dome, though, and could have been a game-puck recipient had it not been for Plekanec's heroics. He made a plethora of great saves and managed to keep us in the game when we needed it the most. I would like to see him get 1 or 2 more starts (at least) before 2010 as I feel he seems to be finding a way to win despite how poorly the team in front of him may play.

Comments

Tonight Atlanta, as a team, were stronger than us, but our secret weapon happened to be a certain 6 players. They were more balanced than us, had better core defence, but we were able to get the most out of our best players and they weren't. It is great to see your top line click like that and great to see your PP work, thanks in large part to the solid work of your two point-men and it is great to see your 'back-up' play so well. So, the one question has to be - where were the other 13 guys? Certain players like Gorges, Spacek, Gomez, Lapierre, Metropolit, Sergei etc. had moments, but honestly guys, come on. You can't always expect one line to do everything and you shouldn't just accept losses when they aren't having a good game. Players like Gomez and Lapierre and Metropolit have to step up and they have to be consistent. I don't need to see goals from those players every game, but I need to know that they can be trusted. Right now we are getting a lot out of our best players and I feel that there is only one way for their production to go. It is great to think of Plekanec as an 80-point man and Camms as a 40-goal sniper, it would be amazing if Bergeron and Markov were better than point per game, but we cannot expect it, nor should we be surprised if none of that happens. Tonight showed that winning in this way does take it's toll as certain players are getting over used, are getting fatigued and eventually they will get hurt or play worse.

So, I am thrilled that we won and pumped that Plekanec and Bergeron and Halak could play such big roles, but we have to start getting more out of the rest of the team because even if one line can get you points and wins and maybe a playoff spot, they probably can't get you a cup.

Game #33 Habs Split Personality, Split Points in Atlanta

Details

Date: 12/12/09
Opponent: Thrashers
Location: Atlanta

Loss: 3-4 (OT)

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Hedberg (W)

Habs goalscorers: Metropolit, A. Kostitsyn (2)
Opposition goalscorers: Schubert, Armstrong, Antropov, Kovalchuk

Play of the game

This game went to OT, so at once that means that every save made and every goal scored was absolutely pivotal in securing one point. Strange then that I would opt for a play that in the end caused OT only because nothing came of it for the Habs. The play I'm talking about is the 3-on-1 that Scott Gomez sprung late in the first period. The play's beauty began with what is becoming a typical sight - a Gomez interception turned Montreal chance. The other players (Lapierre and Sergei Kostitsyn) both did very well to spring the trap, as they reacted quickly and intensely to gain clear yards over all but the last defender. Now, if anyone has tried to rush in 3-on-1 on the opposition, what you'll know is getting all three players involved in the play. This play, in that regard, was masterful. Gomez began with the requisite drop, but there ended the mundane. Lapierre without hesitation popped it back to Gomez, negating the defender, in a stride Gomez had received the passed and then feathered it to Sergei. If this goal had gone it, it would be goal of the season material. As it was, the single flaw in the play (Sergei suddenly being unable to lift the puck) meant it was a shot into a gambling goalie. Still as consecutive individual plays go, this was as close to perfection as we would come.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome


Forwards

Tomas Plekanec
Before the tide turned, Tomas was just his excellent self for long stretches. Through his combination of speed, and this season confident positioning, he managed to harvest the puck and chances for the Habs through the first and until the Atlanta onslaught. From the point where it all went pear-shaped, Tomas morphed into uber-efficient penalty-killer.

Andrei Kostitsyn - Game Puck
On a night when Kovalev began to gloss over his November displays, so did his protege further banish memories of October and being Latendresse's object of disdain. Andrei's 5th goal of the season was one that spelled all his talents. He stripped the puck carrier and got that look which only ended after a deke and a scarily powerful screen shot was in the net. However, if you thought that was the extent of him, his 6th goal proved different. The shot from the right he unleashed again was patented Kovalev, and usurped by Cammalleri, but it was his pass to Plekanec (making me think it was PP), changing the point of attack which was the more beautiful.

Scott Gomez
This last place was virtually reserved for a PK player by the refs on this night. That meant Sergei, Moen or Gomez, Moen and Gomez realistically. Now I thought Moen played a good game, a very good game on the PK. However, the difference with Gomez is his ability to both look like a star on the PK and create real chances up front. His one assist on this night was early reward for a night where he created a few chances (including that play of the game) for his wingers.

Defencemen

Marc-Andre Bergeron
You can't really say the Jacques Martin system has been taken up throughout the players. Yet, Marc-Andre has been a case study for listening to the sense the coaches have been talking. Once again he provides that critical extra threat on any PP. Now he also holds his own in his own zone. For me, this is demonstrated in plays where once he would fling the puck away, always forward to any remotely open teammate. Of late (this game being exemplary), he has taken on a bit of patience and seems to take personal responsibility in seeing the puck is not only cleared but ideally held in possession. The fact he also took his stitches in stride was only a bonus on this night.

Roman Hamrlik
What would it take to supplant Roman in here? A lot. He began this game with the poise that infected the whole group. That patience being learned by Bergeron, could be a 3-credit course given by Hamrlik at Hockey U. At his best in this game, Hamrlik knows when to abort a play, when a pass forward would be a pass backward and vice versa. I thought he showed all this at time in the Atlanta game, and on this night that was more than enough given the rivals.

Goaltender

Carey Price
At our harshest we say 4 goals is not enough to allow your team to win, not a team without goalmaker #1 and goalscorer #2. We also, adhere, quite strictly I think, to a philosophy that generalities must be challenged and rules questioned. The 4-goal rule then, is just a guideline. Against the Thrashers, Carey did indeed give his team chance to win. As every other game report will remind you, as well as this one, No Carey, No OT. The split in personality did not miss Carey though. If you were like me, before Atlanta scored you were probably thinking this might be a shutout for Price, such was the work he was doing. He was confident, he was aggressive and he was willing better defence. The game from that goal changed him like it did both teams, likely because it changed both teams. His best saves were yet to come, but gone unfortunately was the extra aggression that had been causing good shooters to aim wide to that point. Even so, this was the loss of a very good goalie (believe it or not Hasek, Roy, Brodeur - they all lose/lost); as Carey never gave up, this was one to draw positives from for the goalie.

Comments

The Canadiens were charged with 7 penalties (excluding fights) on this night. The headlines read that indiscipline brought down the house of cards. I disagree.

While you might think my argument is a house of cards, given that Metropolit's penalty (the one that brought the loss) was indiscipline of the first degree. I nit-pick though. The Kostitsyn penalty, the Lapierre interference, the trips, these were all plays that happen a hundred times over in any game, that happened a hundred times over in this game. I only suggest then that the Canadiens would have trouble eliminating these plays without sacrificing a lot. Like it or not, interference is not banished, accidental trips happen and stick taps go on (even when 99% of the time they aren't called slashes). A team that eliminates them all, no questions asked will quickly find themselves at a disadvantage. Unfortunately (purists cover your eyes), if you don't push the limits, the other team will and push you to the bottom of the standings while they're about it.

So if not indiscipline, then what caused this loss, the shift in momentum. Well, I think man management was a pretty big disaster in this game. Jacques and his coaches have selected a team in which there are 3 players they seem to have no confidence in whatsoever. Is it wise, for example, to select Georges Laraque to play just over 2 minutes? To create a line with him on that is liability for every shift? No, it is not. Did it need to take 40 minutes to try the reliable Tom Pyatt with others? No, it shouldn't have. Did Matt D'Agostini need to be relegated to 6 shifts? Isn't there another way to teach a lesson? I'd like to see more adaptive man management from the guy who almost constantly laments the fitness of his wards.

Game #15Price Drops the Ball...Again

Details

Date: 3/11/09
Opponent: Thrashers
Location: Montreal

Loss: 4-5

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Pavelec (W)

Habs goalscorers: Gionta (2), Cammalleri, Plekanec
Opposition goalscorers: Little, Peverley, Popovic, Kubina, Armstrong

Play of the game

I really liked the 4th goal, Plekanec's. Can you believe that at the time I actually thought that it would be enough to send us to OT; I obviously underestimated Price's consistency. The play started at our blue-line when Latendresse grabbed the puck and quickly got it to Lapierre on his right. Then, that line, all 3 of them, went off up the ice. Lapierre sent it back to Gui who kept the puck going to Pleks who was out wide on the left. Tomas froze Pavelec and then, from a sharp angle, went upstairs to tie it at 4.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome



Forwards

Tomas Plekanec
I had the list down to 4 forwards and I think Pleks was third on the list. So, I just wanted to mention that Gomez, despite not being chosen, played almost as well as Pleks and could have easily been placed in here. Tomas, however, had the edge thanks to his goal and a few other key offensive plays. He also had 3 shots on net, was 60% at face-offs and was quite gritty all game long.

Mike Cammalleri
Another 'pure-goal-scorer' game from Mike. Whether it be the fact that he always seems to be in the right place or that he can rocket the shot from just about anywhere or that he took 4 quite menacing shots or that he scored a very soft 5-hole goal there is just one way to describe this player and that is - amazing. Too bad he can't play D or goal...although come to think of it would it be that bad? I mean some of our players in those positions also have that deficiency.

Brian Gionta - Game Puck
I was very happy with Brian's game tonight and quite liked the way in which he scored his two goals. They were both quick and accurate shots that caught this 'phenom' off guard. He wasn't too great defensively tonight, but made up for that by spending most of his 21 minutes in the other end. In all he took 6 shots and could have easily ended with more than two goals.

Defencemen

Josh Gorges
Spacek and Hammer each gave the puck away 5 times and both took more silly penalties. As good as those two can be they can also be quite careless at times. Neither played horribly, but neither shone. Bergeron and Carle were just bad, they brought nothing apart from poor, uncomfortable and defensively-inept play. That leaves two players. Josh, once again is one of those players that I didn't really notice for good or bad. That is why I am happy that that calming influence was actually on the ice for over 20 minutes.

Paul Mara
Mara stood out a little more than Gorges did and that, for the most part, is thanks to his play in the offensive zone. I thought that he did quite well on the PP and had a few other moments where he supported the attack nicely. He made a good pairing with Josh, but that may become a luxury that Martin will have to reconsider unless he really thinks he can roll with 4 D-men each night.

Goaltender

Jaroslav Halak
Price was bad tonight and likely cost us points. We have to look beyond a few things here to get to the truth about this game. I'll forget that our D, at times, was weak as, let's face it, they are always weak. I will give Carey the benefit of the doubt and forget that Atlanta isn't quite what you would call a 'cream of the league' type team. I'll even forget that he only faced 30 shots. No, for this assessment I will just look at the 5 goals (I'll even forget the other, non-goal, pucks that seemed to get by him with a certain regularity). I will forgive the first goal as it was unlucky. Yes, maybe he is the 'unluckiest' goalie ever, but I'll move on. The third goal, Popovic's, was pathetic. It was a floater from the point which never deflected, but Price still had trouble lining his foot-wide trapper with it. Then, the other three goals, were all pretty much the same and this is clearly something other teams have seen. Carey, on all of them, over-committed to the left side of his net. He stayed deep, hugged the post and crouched down. It is probably a great way to defend against low shots from the corner, but apparently not a good way to defend against much else. In all 3 cases the puck was passed across the crease to his right where an Atlanta player had very little to do but put it on net. This lesson in physics (pucks move faster than Carey) has obviously been lost on our 'positionally-sound', 'franchise player'. Now, the reason I choose Halak tonight isn't because I necessarily think Jaro is that great, but, no matter how bad Price is, we know one thing for certain; Halak, right now (and for most of the past 3 years), is far and away the better goalie.

Comments

You outplay a team, you out-chance a team and you even out-shoot them by over 25%, but you can't get a point. Why is that? Well, for the most part we have too few skilled players to get the job done. That said, I think that the forwards are getting the job done offensively. In fact I'll add our D to that list as I feel they are helping enough on attack. Our big problems, as you all know, are in our own end. Tonight we dressed 4 NHL players from the blue-line back. Carle, Bergeron and Price all played quite terribly and, in one way or another, cost us. All the effort in the world, unfortunately, can't make up for that deficiency. Not so fast forwards and other D. While you aren't horrible in your own end, you aren't that great either. This aspect of our play really has to improve if we want to go far. Yes, Markov is injured, but why is that an excuse? What kind of management is that? If you are a production manager and your best employee leaves do you just let productivity decline? No, of course not, you do something about it. Right now, however, Martin can do little to help the sinking ship that is our D (apart from not playing Price) because he has been supplied with elbow patches, from Gainey, to fill head-sized holes.

This is a rough start to the week and one that may cost us a good start to November. I know what the thought was tonight; 'Price has learned his lesson, he is ready, he's our number one and he'll have no trouble against Atlanta. This win will build his confidence and we'll build on that'. Well, cliches didn't work, but what may have is the simplest rule in sports - use your best pieces whenever you can. There is no rule that states Carey has to play games is there? Does he need a certain amount of starts? Nope. They dropped the ball tonight by hoping a worse option in goal would be good enough. After seeing Price play this year there is only one certainty when it comes to him - no games will ever be easy for this kid.

Game #8: Habs Need Extra Time Again to Secure 2 Points

Details

Date: 20/10/09
Opponent: Thrashers
Location: Montreal


Win: 2-1 (SO)

Habs Goalie: Halak (W)
Opposition Goalie: Pavelec (L)

Habs goalscorers: Gionta (1, SO), (Gomez - SO)
Opposition goalscorers: Armstrong

Play of the game

After watching 4 pretty slow shootout attempts it was nice to see Gionta do exactly what I have been calling us to do for years; skate in with some speed. With the game-winning puck at his stick he decided to fly in on Pavelec and basically give the kid something he may not have seen much of. Brian was indeed too quick for the keeper as he made one move to his backhand and pretty much just skated by the baffled goalie. The puck was then into the roof of the net and the Habs, thank goodness, finally had their third win.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome



Forwards

Mike Cammalleri
You are going to notice a very similar dome tonight, but I think that you would all agree it is well deserved. Mike was probably the player who stood out the least amongst the big three, but he still had quite a good game. He was always putting himself into the right spots and it seemed that scoring chances would have turned into goals had it not been for the hot play of the young Pavelec. He did pick up an assist and managed a whopping 7 shots on goal.

Brian Gionta - Game Puck
Brian scored a goal that would give us our first 40-minute lead of the year. He then sealed the deal with the shootout winner in (read above) spectacular fashion. Believe it or not Brian also took 7 shots on goal and took another 7 that even didn't reach the net; no wonder he scored.

Scott Gomez
Scott played a very good game in both ends and I actually felt that it was his play without the puck that was his strong suit. On numerous occasions he was able to win the puck from the opposition and create a chance for us. He also ended up scoring on a rocket shot in the shootout which was a nice way for him to end his game.

Defencemen

Jaroslav Spacek
Jaro played quite a bit better on the PP tonight, but still couldn't score a goal. I do, however, believe that it is coming. He is playing really well with Hammer and seems to have developed a certain chemistry with some of our forwards; Gomez in particular. Despite Brunet's call for Bergeron on the top PP unit (in favour of Spacek) I would stick it out with the 40+ point-man despite the presence of the 30-point, until recently unsigned, Quebecois. Jaroalsv led the team with 27+ minutes of ice-time and put a very impressive 4 shots on net.

Roman Hamrlik
Hamrlik was about 2 inches away from winning the game in the dying seconds of OT, but unfortunately rang the puck off of the post after a great pass from Kostitsyn. Aside from that he played a very good game, particularly in the offensive zone. He, like Jaro, took 4 shots as the pair enjoyed quite a bit of time on the PP. It will be interesting to see if his PP ice-time will stay so high if they continue to fail to produce, but I don't for one second actually believe that any of our misfortunes are due to Hamrlik's play. In fact, I believe the opposite - if it weren't for Roman where would this team and offence and PP be...even worse no doubt.

Goaltender

Jaroslav Halak
Nothing spectacular tonight, but a whole lot of solid play. Jaro was never really called on to be too big (until the shootout), but he made sure to not let any weak ones in. He gave our team the chance to win and that is all we can really ask. 1 goal-against on 25 shots (2 in the shootout) against a team with Kovalchuk is quite the performance I think. After having not watched him for a while I was reminded of a few of his strengths tonight and a few of his differences from Price. In particular he moves laterally so well, plays the puck less behind the net than Price and, thus, gets himself into less trouble and I would say, the big one, he looks so focused and alert during any particular moment of the game.

Comments

This wasn't exactly a thriller, but in the end we got precisely what we needed. Yes, it was only a win against Atlanta, but if we can make sure to always beat the bad teams then we should be able to squeak out a playoff spot. That is mostly due to the fact that there are some seriously bad teams (ATL, TOR, NYI, FLA to name a few) that we'll get to play. It will, however, be a struggle to get points if we continue to put up less than 3 goals a game. The biggest problem, and I have touched on this before, is goal-scoring from our 'role' players. Right now they are all playing the role of goat more than defensive-specialist or energy-catalyst. Even a goal from a defenceman wouldn't hurt come to think about it. If the big three have a bad game (especially if they are on the same line together) we can probably forget a win and we may even be looking at a shutout against us. Maybe Markov's absence can make Gainey look for some help in the one area that I really think we need it: (apart from goaltending and defence that is) offence.

Tonight Pavelec was good and we almost couldn't beat him, but I never actually felt in danger in this one. There was no panic on the players' faces, no panic in Halak's play and thus no panic for me at home. All in all it was a confident game from our bunch in which we out-worked, out-chanced and out-played Atlanta. I have, however, said it before and that is - all you have to do is out-score a team to win. The Thrashers came as close as us to out-scoring us and that is a little unsettling. I am ready for Montreal to stop hitting posts, to stop having shots blocked and to stop missing the net; I am ready to see some goals.

Low Marks No More: A New Start For The PP

Remember last season when it took Gainey 4 infuriating months to admit he made a mistake in running a PP without a good shot from the point? It appears he may have learned something.

Tonight will mark the debut of the new Matt Schneider/Mark Streit/Sheldon Souray: Marc-Andre Bergeron, and thanks to a bit of luck he'll be starting in a game that should suit him quite nicely – the Atlanta Thrashers. A team that allows league high shots against, a team that is due for punishment for their thus far lucky balance in save and shot percentage.


In an earlier post, I made it quite clear that Marc-Andre Bergeron is not an adequate replacement when facing 4 months without Markov. Heck, he said it himself:

“I’m sure people know that Andrei Markov is a top defenceman in the NHL and he’s irreplaceable,” Bergeron said Monday after his first practice with the Canadiens. “I’m not here to replace Andrei Markov. I want to be myself and do my best to help the team win.”

However, like MA himself, I do think he can help.

The first area he can help is obviously the PP. Provided we aren't playing in Western Canada, we should count on getting a few of these, and having Bergeron set up on the right point for a shot will help with our options. And while he certainly isn't as muti-talented as markov to come in and run a PP, he does have shot and sense enough to do an adequate imitation of Matt Schneider and Mark Streit.

Begeron


Streit



The second, more underrated impact Marc Andre will bring after his shot will be his ability to play adequate NHL defence against lower line forwards. No, it won't really help lessen the loads of Gorges, Spacek and Hamrlik, but he should at least ensure that Mara and Gill are kept in check. At the very least it means we won't be seeing Gill/Weber or Belle/Mara for tonight.

While I'm not quite as convinced as the player himself that he's not got one dimension to outweigh his others (i.e., offense >> defence) by a long way, I can't argue with his +/- over a career on some, let's face it, pretty awful teams. It stands him in good stead to be a neutral player on this currently awful team.


Finally, Bergeron adds the Marc with a "C" this team needs in the face of that book published by Robert Sirois this week. In fact, Marc-Andre is just about the type of player that good old Bobby Sirois was hoping to see more of the NHL – a more fringe-type player without elite level skill. The type of player, he'd argue would come from English Canada about 98% of the time.

I think this is a good bit of timing for the Habs, because it does help to diffuse the bomb that was their roster make-up in a week that will surely be full of talk about the tables and stats from the hardcover. After all, Gainey has increased his Quebecois francophone quotient by 33% this week, all while demoting an Ontarian and holding another English Canadian with similar skills (Subban) back.


Let's not expect miracles

In adding a 4th/5th defenceman with a good shot like MA Bergeron, the Habs are taking a small step forward. But let's not go into tonight's game expecting any miracles. Marc-Andre wasn't signed by 30 different GMs this summer, and that was not their accidental oversight. And I have to diverge from Bob Sirois here too in thinking that it was purely discrimination based on upbringing.

Those GMs preferred to fill the positions that Bergeron fills just fine with rookies with upside, with veterans that can out-muscle a star or two, with more intriguing options. But like Bouillon and Dandenault before him, he is a player that can ably perform the brief of a lesser used defender, and he also has that shot.

I sort of expect a goal from him tonight, just because it would ignite an interesting debate, and that's what tends to happen in Montreal. but if I had done a preview fr Bergeron coming into the season, I can tell you I'd have put him at 10 goals and 14 assists (mostly rebound creating shots).

Who Won The NHL Draft?

Now that all's said and done, who won the affair the other night?

I have looked around for a verdict from someone else, and only found this so far. An article full of obvious choices that could have been entitled: "Who won the Draft Lottery?".

Given that the team who wins the draft is a bit subjective and very hard to ascertain until about 5 years on, it's difficult to say. For me, the winners are the ones who punch above their weight, who get good players without having to put in a dire season, who uncover players others didn't.

As we all know the first round was a bit of a formulaic affair, with most picks coming in the order that has been anticipated for near 2 months. So coming out of the first round, there wasn't really a clear out-and-out winner for me.

Some would be tempted to go with the Anaheim Ducks who made Philly overpay for Pronger to an almost criminal level. That may be, but they also have two picks that I don't rate at all – 2 two-way forwards in the first round is not good play. Paradoxically, some also rate Philly in the same sentence for nabbing Pronger. It certainly is a big pick-up, but they've dug themselves a mighty hole and anyone who do basic arithmetic can see that getting out will undo any good that it seems they've done right now.

Others might say the Islanders. And while they did the right thing by picking the prodigious Tavares, they traded up repeatedly only to get a player that should have been available later. That, and they took De Haan ahead of Kulikov, which I consider a massive slip.

The Canadiens are a winner in that they managed to get a Quebecer who may one day be a star (and thus unlikely to want to sign with us). They struck a PR coup and should have silenced all but the most possessed RDS commentators for the next while. A small victory.

I have this round in an almost dead-heat.


The second round and beyond really started to separate the men from the boys of NHL scouting departments.

In fact, the first two picks were very solid. The Islanders took the pro-ready Koskinen at #31, which for them is gold dust at this point. Detroit followed with a first rounder in the second thanks to some iffy picks from Calgary, Boston, Anaheim and Carolina.

By the end of the second, I like Atlanta, Colorado, Detroit, Edmonton, Florida, Nashville, Islanders, Ottawa and Tampa Bay. Each had produced a minor steal. Each had largely avoided drafting players that could be signed on August 8th of any given year and each had risked a bit.

It didn't look good for Montreal really, but they'd only had one at bat. The third and beyond saw the Habs and Timmins come out with some massive swats, trying to hit home runs while others tried to bunt a single.

You all know my biases from the previews, and so you know I think that Montreal did get contact with Leblanc but that also they hit a few potential homers on the weekend. Nattinen, given his size and talent should not have been available at 65th, and I'm not surprised that Timmins was as shocked as I was. We can thank a myopic view of Europe (with vastly overvalued Swedes) and teams settling into present-day hole filling mode far too early.

I think Timmins also cleared the monster with Avtsyn, though he played a dangerous game by taking a Connecticut high schooler before him. I suppose he put a man on base for Avtsyn to knock in. Russia has tough leagues that are only stocked full of more talent at the moment given the lack of flow to North America. For a 6'2", 200 lb winger to put up 56 goals in as few games as he did could not be passed up. From that point, Timmins hit a double to the wall to meet an important organizational need in Gabriel Dumont and took 3 more whopper swings on unknowns, including a goalie that could be a very good gamble.

Montreal wasn't the only team swinging away, though, and they were hardly the winners of this draft at all. They do in my opinion fit somewhere in the second echelon of teams, though we'll have to see whether their home runs clear the fence or even result in a hit before the final verdict. At least they swung!


My top 5

The best 5 teams, in no particular order, over the two days were:

Tampa Bay Lightning
Kept their pick and took Hedman, a number one caliber player at number two. But then they traded for another first and rounded out by taking two players I rate: Panik and Hutchings. I think they have at least 4 NHLers from this weekend here.

Ottawa Senators
Despite missing Kadri (Burke's never heard of reverse psychology) they got the better player in Jared Cowen. They then made up for missing Kadri by picking Jakob Silfverberg and stealing top goalie Robin Lehner. To add to their haul they nabbed 52-goal man Mike Hoffman from Drummondville (9 picks ahead of teammate Dumont).

Atlanta Thrashers
Evander Kane had an amazing year and is a top caliber player. But their kudos really come from picking Klingberg and my favourite Jeremy Morin – 2 very good players that shouldn't have probably fallen as far as they did. Add goalie Pasquale, who many thought could be the first goalie taken and they had a good draft indeed.

Edmonton Oilers
Award for being most on my wavelength. They also got the first mini steal in Paajarvi-Svensson, only to go on and nab Olivier Roy and Toni Rajala very late. Add to that Anton Lander – one of those Swedes Timmins surely coveted. Edmonton is stocking well and will start to make noise very soon, surely.

Nashville Predators
Solid right the way through, they never really batted safely. Their first pick Ryan Ellis will be very good, but fell past more conservative GMs. Ditto Zach Budish and Charles-Olivier Roussel (who I really thought would be a nice Hab). Their late picks were taken in the same spirit.

Playoff Picture Starting To Clear

As we know there's only one way to be sure of playoff participation, and that is to win games. However, a lot of teams will make the playoffs (even those who haven't clinched yet) by losing the majority of the rest of their games. It is a function of who plays who, and even with three point games, teams coming from behind can only catch up so much.

The Flyers are a good example. They currently have 92, and two teams outside the playoff picture could by simple arithmetic overtake them. However, because that would mean the Panthers and the Sabres beating other playoff contenders, and the existing possibility that the 4 teams currently behind them could still lose games as well, it means the Flyers would still have a 32% chance of making the playoffs if they lost all their remaining games. The Hurricanes, with a mere 91 points would have a 28% chance of making the post-season without a further win, and 92 points for them would solidify their position at 49% or so (a toss up).

Predictive models like the one I have been tracking at Sports Club Stats start to come into their own with 5-10 games left, it is where their predictive modelling becomes more reliable and just before the point where we can work it all out in our heads anyway. In any case, they are nothing more than good fun as we all know that 94% of making the playoffs two weeks out if the chance is 0% once the final game is played.

From the Canadiens point of view, it has been interesting the past few days, and indeed weeks. The team currently has an 82.4% chance of making the playoffs (if you prefer to weight games by home ice and previous record, goal differential and all that) 0r a slightly lower 80.8% if you're like me and prefer to believe that 50/50 is closer to the truth at this wacky time of year.


Yesterday's games were pretty tame as far as us scoreboard watchers are concerned. The Leafs win did nothing to improve our chances at making the playoffs (statistically speaking – presumably if we overtake the Flyers we're guaranteed in anyway); the Penguins win over the Devils decreased our chances by a fraction and the Thrashers OT win over Buffalo pushed our likely participation up by less than 1%.

Tonight's games are more interesting, however. Obviously our own game is a big one. A win would push our odds to 9/10 scenarios, whereas a point-less loss would drop us to around 7/10. A lone point would hurt, not help the cause from the odds-makers perspective, but would only affect a 2.5% drop. The Rangers also play and could help us out by losing to the Hurricanes to the tune of a few percent.

Friday's another interesting day (as they all will be until the end of the season now) with the Panthers and Sabres in action.


Cheering the Thrashers on

As you know, Kovalchuk and the Thrashers have done us a few favours recently. For one thing, they bowed down and lost. For another, they've beaten the Sabres twice in a month and the Rangers once as well.

Well our second favourite team will could be playing the second biggest role in determining our playoff fate as they have two of their remaining 5 games against the Florida Panthers. To give you an idea of their importance, a win tomorrow over Florida would help our chances three times more than a single point form us this evening, giving us a 6% bump. If Atlanta were to pull off the sweep (tomahawk chops going?), then Florida would probably need to beat two or three of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Washington, all on decent tears themselves.

Perhaps it's time to get a Ted Turner TNN package to try and get some Atlanta hockey on your sets.

And don't assume it will be a bore watching this revitalised team. Since the Thrashers lost to the Blackhawks on February 11th, the team has actually picked it up mightily going 14-6-1 to bring home the season. Not only that, Kovalchuk is on a rampant tear scoring his 30th goal over the 37-game stretch since the midpoint. Though the odds don't pick it up because of the dismal first half, the Thrashers actually look one of the more likely teams to get wins in the last week and a half of the season...


Canucks in?

The Sports Club Stats website has Vancouver in in all scenarios. The NHL website does not give them the clinch. Out of pure curiosity, I looked into it. I thought you'd enjoy what I found – I think I figured out a way Vancouver could miss the playoffs (it's not surprising it comes out as a zero with 50 million runs):

1) Naturally, Vancouver must lose all their games, they must also take a major goal differential hit to make things more manageable for the trackers – 93 points (0-6-0)

2) St. Louis must win all their games and recover their goal differential to overtake Vancouver – 93 points (5-0-0)

3) Nashville (Vancouver has the tie break) must win all their games too – 94 points (5-0-0)

4) Columbus who will have lost 2 of their remaining 5 to St. Louis and Nashville must pick up OT points in one or both and win 2 of their next three; or just win their other 3 – 93+ points (min 2-2-1)

5) Anaheim need 4 wins and an OTL from 5 (obviously not letting Vancouver get a point in the process) – 94+ points (min 4-0-1)

6) Chicago, now with at least 3 losses from their last 6 from Nashville and Columbus must take a point from Detroit or one of the Columbus games over 3 games – 94+ points (min 0-5-1)

7) Finally, Calgary must get at least a point from their remaining games – 94+ points (min 0-4-2)


The point that should be conceded to celebrating Canucks fans is the fact that even if they lose and all these things happen, because they drew St. Louis in the season series, the Blues going making up the 34 goal gap in goal differential is the biggest stretch of this entire theory. And that's even if you don't look at who plays or goaltends on these teams...

Happy hockey and scoreboard gazing.

Go Habs Go. (And Thrashers too)

Game #73The Comibination We Never Tried - Our 3 Best Players - Pays Dividends

The Canadiens Game in Review

Date: Tuesday March 24th, 2009
Opponent: Atlanta Thrashers
Venue: Bell Centre, Montreal, QC

Team Stripes

Final Score: 6-3 - Win

Habs starting goalie: Carey Price (W)
Opposition starting goalie: Kari Lehtonen (L)

Habs goalscorers: Alex Tanguay (2), Glen Metropolit, Alexei Kovalev (2), Saku Koivu
Opposition goalscorers: Joseph Crabb, Ilya Kovalchuk, Zach Bogosian

Play of the game
The play you're straining to see on the press catwalk monitor...

This play will go down as a serious candidate for the Habs goal of the year. A very nice pass to open space by Kovalev started it all off and then it was all Tanguay. Alex took control of the puck near the blue-line and made 2 very good moves to get around a flat-footed Ron Hainsey. It was then Lehtonen's turn to be undressed as the stickhandling continued. He finished it off by sliding the puck off Kari's pads ever so subtly.

Game puck
Trophies are for the end of the year, play well in the game, you get a lovely puck...

Alex Tanguay
What a game for Alex! He scored 2 goals and assisted on 3 others for a whopping 5 points. He looked very comfortable playing with Kovalev and Koivu as the 3 players seemed to click right from the start of the game. Tonight's Tanguay was the one we saw in October and, although we have seen glimpses recently, it is great to have him back. What I liked the most about his play was the puck movement and the vision. At heart I believe he is a play-maker who sees the ice like few others, but he obviously has great hands and can score too.



Dome hockey team
We're going into the last minute with these 6 (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...

Forwards

Alexei Kovalev
On any other night Alex's performance would have been game-puck worthy. Tonight, however (and thankfully for us) he was one-upped by Tangs. Kovalev, for his part, also scored 2 goals and added an assist. Aside from that he had two other glorious opportunities (one of which rang off the iron) and drew at least 2 penalties. This is the type of big-game performance I expected from him and the type we will need from now until golf-season (whenever that may be).

Saku Koivu
Let's not forget the third man of a very impressive trio as Koivu too had a great game. 3 points (1 goal and 2 assists) matches a season-high he set on October 11th against the Leafs. The skipper now has his two best linemates of the season (no offence to D'Agostini and Higgins) and you could see the energy and enthusiasm in his play. I thought Gainey used him wisely tonight as he was finally brought back onto the PK. He was on the ice for 5 of our goals and none of theirs.

Alex Tanguay
For some reason people in Quebec haven't embraced Tanguay as the French superstar they have been longing for. I, for one, can't understand it as he is clearly a star and is our best French-born player (non-goalie) in years. He adds such a great element to our team when you consider the other weapons we also have up front. I hope this line sticks together even if they don't produce in every game as I saw more chemistry from those 3 than I have from any other trio in quite a few games.

Defencemen

Andrei Markov
We scored 3 PP goals in the second period and it, therefore, comes as no surprise that Markov was very involved tonight. In all he picked up another 3 assists to give him 48 on the year. He was on the ice for 4 of our goals and none against. Markov and Komi formed our best duo tonight as they both played a very solid defensive game. I was happy we only conceded 25 shots to Atlanta which is where it should be on a nightly basis. Andrei has been our best defenceman (by far) in both ends all season; tonight it was nice to see some others following his lead.

Roman Hamrlik
Komi played better tonight, but still took 2 penalties, and I liked what Josh and Mat did, but the stand-out amongst the rest was Hammer for me. He finally played like the #2 we so desperately need him to be. He didn't get in on the scoring parade, but did do some nice work on the second wave of the PP. In all he played over 23 minutes which included over 5 minutes on the PK.

Goaltender

Carey Price
The game started well for Carey as I noticed he was very active in his net. His head was in constant motion and he was challenging shooters at the top of his crease. The body language for me said he was confident. I can't say I was too impressed with his play, or style, on either of the first 2 goals, but he didn't let it bog him down for the remainder of the game. Letting in 3 goals is risky behind this team of hot/cold scorers, but he never put us in a position where we were playing catch-up. So, by always keep the game at least tied he gave us the chance we needed to win. I hope that he can build on this and I also hope that the offence can once again go about their work to make Carey's job a little easier.



Eye-Openers
In this new section we are going to try and shed some light on certain plays or events that would otherwise go unnoticed

We saw the value of Power-Plays tonight and not just because we scored on them, but because they disrupt the other team's flow. Too many times over the past few weeks have I sat and watched as the Habs shoot themselves in the foot by taking a bad penalty. Not only do the chances of an ensuing goal increase, but it basically saps all the energy out of the team. It doesn't tend to be just 2 minutes and then back to normal, often the effects can last for many minutes. In fact, it often takes a penalty to the other team before the momentum is shifted. This of course isn't the case with all teams, it is, however, the case with the Habs. You can see, therefore, the importance of avoiding successive penalties and the advantage of having a few PP's of your own in a row. Tonight our 4 straight PP's in the second led to 3 goals and a period owned by us (for a change). It effectively took Atlanta right out of a game that they were doing well in (2-2 and only having conceded 5 shots to that point). So, to me the most important thing isn't scoring on the PP (although that of course helps), but it is drawing penalties. A team that is skating hard and pressuring the other team will often get the calls in their favour. The importance, therefore, of a sustained effort from all players, at all times, is paramount to our success. My favorite penalty-draw tonight was when Lehtonen shot the puck over the glass. It was Sergei Kostitsyn who forced him to make this mistake with some very intense fore-checking. This, and other similar plays, are what the Habs have been missing of late and it all of course stems from effort, emotion and energy.

Overall Comments

We needed 2 points and it didn't matter how we got them. The way we did win that game, however, was quite encouraging. On one hand it is only Atlanta and you could also say that we were due for a win. On the other you could note that Atlanta has been decent of late and has owned us twice this calendar year. It is a win, it is 2 points, but 83 points won't get us into the playoffs - we must continue. The most positive thing about this game, however, is how we won. We never trailed, we scored 6 goals, our PP was working and we have gotten our stars clicking by finally trying the Ottawa approach of putting your 3 best weapons together. We played a decent defensive game allowing only 25 shots. I should point out though that we gave the puck up 19 times, Atlanta did it 3 times. Tonight was an example of how you can get away with some (a lot) of mistakes when you are scoring and when you are playing against a team that is nether great nor really trying. That approach won't, however, work against teams like Buffalo and Chicago who are more talented and have more incentive right now. At the end of the day I liked how we played tonight, but mostly only in relation to how we have been playing. This game wouldn't look so great had it come in December, but now I think every one's expectations are way lower now. So, I can only hope that we can build on this and that we can take the positives out of this one and remember them for the rest of the season. I think that Gainey gave us a very good look at the team he expects to use from now until the end of the year. I doubt we'll see much of D'Agostini or O'Byrne and think that Price will be given every chance in the world, at any cost. The only relief to come is Bouillon, who will be a very welcome replacement of Brisebois, and Lang if we get to the 2nd round and beyond. I say, leave the lines as is and work with this group, they showed tonight that they are capable, so I say no more excuses from them.