Canadiens Season Preview Outgoing Forwards

After a long summer, the season is just about upon us now. And no season could possibly go forward without a season preview, could it?

Being as this was such a special off-season for the Canadiens organization, we have taken a slightly different, dare I say more factual, approach to the preview. By comparing like statistics against like and contextualizing with a sense of league standing, we hope to show how newcomers might fit in and even change the face of the team. I have done a legend and hidden it in the past.

Anyway, enough rambling, on to the preview.

As I said yesterday, we will begin from the top down, so to speak. From forwards to defence to goalies and each from the top of the depth chart to the bottom.


Outgoing forwards

No preview of a team undergoing such a massive refurbishment could possibly be complete without examining the rubble that were cleared away before the new foundation was laid. First up then is a brief look at the forwards from 2008-09 that will not be back to begin this season.


Saku Koivu

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	65	16	34	50	+4	5	5	0.87	2.71	123	13.0	44
07-08 (MTL)	77	16	40	56	-4	8	3	0.69	2.41	150	10.7	93
06-07 (MTL)	81	22	53	75	-21	11	4	0.90	3.07	154	14.3	74

Even-strength profile
	Top tier offensive performance at even strength Below average defence at even strength Bottom 20% in terms of preventing chances at even strength Negative CORSI: -4.5

Legend

There's plenty to lament with the loss of a teammate like Saku Koivu. It's simplistic to see him as just a captain, because he was also the link to a past generation, an icon in the community and the team. After last year's more pleasant end, I mused on handing Koivu a lifetime extension, something which I supported thus:

Players like Koivu are rare and cannot be obtained easily in this league. He is a leader, a consummate professional and an excellent forward to boot. His ability to elevate his play come big games is well documented and completely invaluable to this team.

Well that's Koivu the full package. What of Koivu the first line centre in regular season action?

What the statistics show me, and have just about always shown is that Koivu is first and foremost about generating offense. Though he flirted with the top of the scoring list in Montreal, both regular season and playoffs, he never came near a Selke trophy nomination. He, like many a first line centre, opted to create offense at the expense of leaving the door open at the back sometimes. As his even strength profile shows, he was a top tier producer at the attacking end, but allowed a raft of chances against. His best statistical season (of 75 points) drives home this lesson with the glaring -21.

Finally, it is this fact that will make Koivu the centre an easier piece to replace. Although Gomez or Plekanec may struggle to put out 3.00 goals for every 60 minutes his line is on the ice, the balance of their output may yet exceed Koivu's by tipping the defensive chances into the green.

Koivu will be missed. Of that I am certain. But until the playoffs kick off, his loss will be easier to cover than after.


Alexei Kovalev

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	78	26	39	65	-5	11	4	1.03	2.57	209	12.4	74
07-08 (MTL)	82	35	49	84	+18	17	5	1.31	3.14	230	15.2	70
06-07 (MTL)	73	18	29	47	-19	8	5	0.81	2.12	197	9.1	78

Even-strength profile
	Average offensive output at even strength Strong defence at even strength (among team leaders) Bottom 20% in terms of preventing chances at even strength Negative CORSI: -5.7

Legend

Kovalev was a master of puck control throughout his time in Montreal. His final masterstroke, however, was a PR deke that made him the man who will be most missed by Canadiens fans across Montreal. While Komisarek continues to be vilified for accepting a few hundred thousand more (several hundred thousand after tax), Kovalev makes the same move and comes out as the man hard done by. It really does speak to the skills he possesses to make something spectacular when given very little.

Making something spectacular out of little is the thing we will surely miss most about Alexei. When you talk about game-breaking skill or dam-busting moves, his were something we have come to count on in Montreal for years now. No longer can we necessarily be assured that the PP will take the zone as the defenders back off, no longer can we assume a man on the left will be left free as Kovy takes double coverage. His highest points will be missed.

But what about the average Alexei Kovalev?

Statistics tell us that the average Kovalev is actually not that gamebreaker, but that he's actually a bit of a dampener. Although his 26 team goals were team high, while he was on the ice, the Canadiens were actually less inclined to score than they were with many other options. Equally (and to Alex's credit), though, his dampening effect extended to defensive play – with among the best GA/60 on the team.

At its best, his patient puck control leads to years like 2007-08 where goals for him and linemates flow and wins naturally follow. At its worst, he is a very good player to have on the ice, though perhaps one getting too much ice time when chasing a lead.

Kovalev, like Koivu will not be easily replaced. But, by virtue of the fact that his game is not without cracks, it does leave room for alternative solutions. If I've read Gainey correctly this off-season, it seems like he hopes his team will be taking a lot more shots this season, and that is something that excluding Kovalev should help to accomplish, simply by vrtue of style.


Alex Tanguay

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	50	16	25	41	+13	5	3	1.19	3.06	76	21.1	34
07-08 (CGY)	78	18	40	58	+11	3	3	0.74	2.38	121	14.9	48
06-07 (CGY)	81	22	59	81	+12	5	0	0.92	3.39	107	20.6	44

Even-strength profile
	Outstanding (and team-leading) offensive performance at even strength Strong defence at even strength (among team leaders) Among league worst in terms of preventing chances at even strength Negative CORSI: -8.5

Legend

In the summer, I suggested that Tanguay's not signing was a puzzle. The more I look into this player, the more confident I am in saying that puzzle is a word that infuses his entire career.

There is no doubt that Alex Tanguay has top-line talent, and that he can fit right into that position on any team today. But why then have two teams in two seasons replaced him with Mike Cammalleri?

The answer is difficult to uncover. If you look at results, Tanguay is a stud. Last year, for example, his 3.32 GF/60 and 2.28 GA/60 when on the ice at even strength was head and shoulders above what anyone else came close to on the Habs. However, looking at chances (and if you extrapolate that to mean what should be happening nine times out of ten), Tanguay is a mess. His line barely generates an average output of shots, many of which don't reach the net, and he is among the very worst in the whole league while allowing 60 chances against per 60 minutes.

If we hadn't watched the player, we could only conclude that he got lucky – that his average shot generation led to more goals than it should and that goalies bailed him out of embarrassing defensive undressings. While I'd be comfortable saying his offensive contribution is not driven by luck, but rather an uncanny timing and skill. I can't remember anything he did on defence that made me think he would merit such high save percentages – I suspect he benefited greatly from missing the two-month goaltending meltdown in this regard.

All told, we are losing a great offensive contributor in Tanguay. But once again, the less than perfect all around package means he's not completely irreplaceable. We're about to find out whether his offensive skills, and those of the first line will be replaced or not.


Christopher Higgins

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	57	12	11	23	-1	2	1	0.74	1.42	151	7.9	22
07-08 (MTL)	82	27	25	52	E	12	5	1.10	2.12	241	11.2	22
06-07 (MTL)	61	22	16	38	-11	8	3	1.21	2.09	159	13.8	26

Even-strength profile
	Above average offensive output at even strength Average defence at even strength Bottom 20% in terms of preventing chances at even strength Negative CORSI: -4.7

Legend

It's hard to nail down Chris Higgins the player with just one stat. The NHL doesn't keep track of good foot positioning when going into the boards, nor good positioning after the break up of play. Equally, the league doesn't track unmissable opportunities misfired or absolute sitters banged wide.

What the stats from last year do show for Chris is that he was no special member of last year's team. His offensive production was above average with a decent defence, but he came out on the wrong side of chances taken and given (aka CORSI score), just like many of his teammates.

I think it's fair to say that the player we once called an untouchable and a bargain is not the player we traded back in June. And, while he was a great skater, a hard worker and a great penalty killer – the simple fact that his stats show how he let as many chances as anyone in the bottom 5th of the league get to Carey Price on his shifts, shows that his loss as a defensive forward is not one to be sulking over. I expect him to continue his career as a good 2nd line sub/third liner in his new home. I'm comfortable in attempting to upgrade on him.


Robert Lang

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	50	18	21	39	+6	8	3	1.28	2.77	101	17.8	36
07-08 (CHI)	76	21	33	54	+9	7	3	0.90	2.31	172	12.2	50
06-07 (DET)	81	19	33	52	+12	6	4	0.84	2.29	166	11.4	66

Even-strength profile
	Top tier offensive performance at even strength Below average defence at even strength Bottom 20% in terms of preventing chances at even strength Negative CORSI: -2.5

Legend

Like Koivu, Robert Lang is a red-blue type profile. That's to say, all the offense he provides comes while the back door is being left open. A positive balance in goals produced and another negative CORSI balance for Lang.

Replacing Lang at his 2008-09 best would be a difficult task indeed. However, take a look at his historical stats – last year was a bit of a departure for him. 1.28 G/60 and 2.77 Pts/60 were pretty massive jumps. His 17.8% shooting was not sustainable (as history showed).

Therefore, think not of replacing that Lang, but rather the Lang that may have been around this year. A 39-year-old with plenty of sense cunning to offer, but a player whose decline is probably set to continue this year and into the next. Even at his Chicago best, we may not have been too happy about him taking space that could be occupied by a learner like Chichura or Pacioretty, and hurting Plekanec's PP minutes.

Of all the free agents, Lang's release was the least surprising to me. I'm happy we got a good year from him, and I wish him the best in his recovery from injury. But as a unit moving forward, our assets are now better directed elsewhere.


Tom Kostopoulos

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	78	8	14	22	-1	0	0	0.43	1.20	121	6.6	106
07-08 (MTL)	67	7	6	13	-3	0	1	0.56	1.03	98	7.1	113
06-07 (LA)	76	7	15	22	-2	0	0	0.48	1.50	90	7.8	73

Even-strength profile
	Average offensive performance at even strength Average defence at even strength On the ice for a high number of chances at both ends Negative CORSI: -3.6

Legend

If you're like me, you look at Kostopoulos's ES profile here and think how did I get duped? We thought you were good Tom. I believe the fact we saw Tom Kostopoulos as such a bright light speaks not to how good he was, but rather how consistent his play was as those around him fell apart.

To be frank, a team like the Canadiens aspiring to better things is best not resting their laurels on players like Tom. Though he is a good guy and a hard worker, ultimately he is a tough guy that no one is afraid of, a shooter with below average success (7%), and a defensive forward with minus numbers.

If I believed, as Brian Burke does that 6 places on the roster should be reserved for players who can't play hockey going forward, then maybe I'd settle with Tom. But as it is, I don't. I think the fourth line can be a good staging ground for a youngster with the right coaching, and the third line can be as dynamic as you make it. As such, Tom needed to be let go at this time, if only to make some space after so many signings risked clogging the pipeline at the exit from Hamilton.


Mathieu Dandenault

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	41	4	8	12	+7	0	0	0.50	1.49	46	8.7	17
07-08 (MTL)	61	9	5	14	-11	0	0	0.79	1.24	69	13.0	34
06-07 (MTL)	68	2	6	8	-8	0	0	0.11	0.44	54	3.7	40

Even-strength profile
	Above average offense and defence at even strength Good chance creation, balanced with low chances against (among team best) Neutral CORSI: +0.8

Legend

Dandenault is another shocker. And after looking through all these pie charts, you'd be forgiven for thinking we've let a great one go.

The reality is, in many he will be missed. His versatility, for one thing, is something you can't teach. His French is something RDS will be longing for after two weeks of exclusive Max and Gui time. And his defensive play up front isn't replaced by anyone coming in, with a positive CORSI to boot. However, there are a few reasons he had to go as well. Not least among them is his habit of complaining at his ice time.



Turning the page

Statistically speaking, the players Gainey let go here were a solid bunch. Their offensive capabilities in particular will be hard to find from other sources. But by this point in time, I think we have all gathered that what Bob did on July 1 was two-fold:

1) To hollow out the core of a team he thought was rotting from within, and
2) Do his best to replace the skills he lost in the purge

I think his purge was pretty determined and unforgiving. In other circumstances, I'm sure Koivu could have been signed, Tanguay could have been given another chance, Higgins could have been taken more under the wing. But in Gainey's plan, this one time, the clear out had to be as deep as this or risk losing all assets across the organization.

Judging the decisions will be complex, since Koivu won't decline, Tanguay may thrive and Kovalev will probably be inspired by the damage to his pride. But try to remember May 2008 against Philadelphia and April 2009 against Boston when making your full assessment. Try to remember that all was not right – and that even if the diagnosis was not done with care, the intervention was warranted.

I go on next with a much more positive spin to preview the players we do have. First up will be the first line of forwards – that's tomorrow...


Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier

Where Will All of the Goals Come From?

It is hard to know whether we are a better team than last year or not, but with a month to go till the season we are bound to find out very soon. One aspect that I don't think will change that much is our offensive production. I believe that our goaltending, overall defensive play and special teams will all likely improve, but I believe that, as a team, we will score about as many goals as we have over each four of the post-lockout seasons. What I do know is that with no less than 7 new everyday players the landscape of our season-long goal scoring table will look vastly different.

Since the lockout we have scored 979 goals and our season totals (despite having a perceived offensive juggernaut in 2007-2008 and a group that we were led to believe were unable to score last year) have been within an 18 goal range in each of those seasons.

Ah, thank you law of averages. You have secured me a job, a girlfriend and now you are here to help me once again. You see averages always seem to come through, even at the worst of times. That is why in a season when Michael Ryder scores 10 less goals than expected Higgins scores 10 more. Or why Kovalev can have an 'off-season' at the same time that Robert Lang is re-born. If you look at the following stats you will know what I mean. In the NHL, and on the Habs in particular, goals get scored at a remarkably similar rate each season.

I'll now look at the past 4 seasons and try and predict what our players totals will look like come April. All I know is that if I give one player 5 too few it is probably because I gave another 5 too many.


Our Goals

2005-2006 - 241 Goals
2006-2007 - 239 Goals
2007-2008 - 257 Goals
2008-2009 - 242 Goals

That makes an average of 244.75, so as I believe that we are a very similar team to those teams (offensively) I'll make the bold prediction that we will score 245 Goals.


Where did those goals come from?

These totals include all players that played at least one game in a season. Thus players who didn't score still feature in these stats.

2005-2006

- 205 Forward Goals from 20 different forwards
- 36 Goals from 8 different defencemen
- We acquired 2 new players over the course of the season, they scored 1 of these goals

2006-2007
- 184 Forward Goals from 18 different forwards
- 55 Defenceman Goals from 8 different defencemen
- We acquired 1 new player over the course of the season, he scored 0 of these goals

2007-2008
- 213 Forward Goals from 19 different forwards
- 44 Defenceman Goals from 8 diferent defencemen
- We acquired no new players over the course of the season

2008-2009
- 203 Forward Goals from 20 different forwards
- 39 Defenceman Goals from 11 different defencemen
- We acquired 3 new players over the course of the season, they scored 7 of these goals


2009-2010

By looking at the averages I come up with the following numbers.

- We should have 19 forwards suit up for us this year and 9 defencemen
- We will likely acquire 2 players over the course of the year that aren't already with the organization; 1 forward and 1 defenceman, they will contribute 1 goal each
- Our 19 forwards will score 201 goals
- Our 9 defencemen will score 44 goals


What we are missing

This is a list of the players who scored for us last year. Of the 242 goals 123 (51%) were scored by players no longer with the club or by players who are unlikely to play in Montreal; those players are in italics.

Forwards

Alexei Kovalev - 26
Andrei Kostitsyn - 23
Tomas Plekanec - 20
Robert Lang - 18
Saku Koivu - 16
Alex Tanguay - 16
Maxim Lapierre - 15
Guillaume Latendresse - 14
Chris Higgins - 12
Matt D'Agostini - 12
Sergei Kostitsyn - 8
Tom Kostopoulos - 8
Steve Begin - 6
Mathieu Dandenault - 4
Max Pacioretty - 3
Glen Metropolit - 2
Kyle Chipchura - 0
Ben Maxwell - 0
Georges Laraque - 0
Greg Stewart - 0

Defencemen

Andrei Markov - 12
Roman Hamrlik - 6
Patrice Brisebois - 5
Mathieu Schneider - 5
Francis Bouillon - 5
Josh Gorges - 4
Mike Komisarek - 2
Ryan O'Byrne - 0
Yannick Weber - 0
Alex Henry - 0
Doug Janik - 0


Predictions for this season

Forwards

Mike Cammelleri - 33
Andrei Kostitsyn - 31
Brian Gionta - 27
Tomas Plekanec - 22
Scott Gomez - 18
Guillaume Latendresse - 17
Sergei Kostitsyn - 11
Matt D'Agostini - 10
Max Pacioretty - 8
Maxim Lapierre - 7
Travis Moen - 5
Kyle Chipchura - 3
Mikael Johannson - 3
Glen Metropolit - 2
Gregory Stewart - 2
Ben Maxwell - 1
Georges Laraque - 0
Dany Masse - 0
* Player not yet with the organization - 1

Defencemen

Andrei Markov - 14
Jaroslav Spacek - 10
Roman Hamrlik - 6
Paul Mara - 5
Yannick Weber - 3
Hal Gill - 2
Josh Gorges - 2
Ryan O'Byrne - 1 (hopefully into the opposition's goal)
* Player not yet with the organization - 1


So there you have it, the season in a nutshell. I think I'll still watch, however, as I am not quite sure when all these goals will be scored. I just hope that we don't waste too many of our 245 goals in games where the other team is having trouble scoring on us; better to save those goals for when we really need them.

Bits And Pieces: Habs-Related News On A Summer's Day

A quick scan of the news I've missed being without internet for a day or so while out on business to find a schedule, some signings and the ubiquitous rumours.

Not quite neough for a big post on any or each, but I thought a rapid-fire relay of thoughts would be appropriate.

NHL schedule released

So, there will be NHL games this year. That's good news. It's not really news though is it?

I suppose there are things we've been anxious to find out, specifically when will this boredom end, who will we play on our 100th birthday and when would we be seeing Saku Koivu again.

The answers. The first night of NHL action will be October 1st, and it will feature the Habs vs. the Leafs in Toronto. We will be playing the Boston Bruins on December 4th at home – a fitting choice for the biggest occasion in these 100th celebrations by a long stretch. And, as for Saku, we won't see him in Montreal after all – which is a shame. Word, however, is that he and Kovalev will make a homecoming of sorts to take part in the premiere of the movie in which he played a lead role (date not reported).

A couple of other interesting points about the schedule include the outdoor game on New Year's day (where the Slovak monster meets the Green Monster as the Bruins host the Flyers at Fenway); the European trips for the Red Wings and Blues in Stockholm and Hawks and Panthers in Helsinki; and the 2nd Victoria Cup in late September, in which the Chicago Blackhawks will be representing the NHL in lieu of the Canadiens or the Stanley Cup champs finally stepping up to the plate.

I did also come across a funny (as in laughable) take on the schedule by a Bruins writer. In going through every game, it's not surprising that he finds few losses and concludes with this irritating and smug (distinctly Bostonian you'll be noting) conclusion to the year for the Bruins:

April 11 at Capitals: The Bruins close out the regular season the way they started it — by beating Washington. Boston doesn’t go 82-0, but finishing on top of the East again is commendable. It’s only the beginning.

Next stop, the playoffs. Is this the year of the Bruins? Thirty-eight years of waiting is long enough.

I should introduce this Bruins fan to the 2006 Hurricanes, the 2007 Senators, the 2008 Habs and every other team that wins the East with high expectations of a follow-up. Of course, they'd be crazy not to expect winning all the NHL trophies again wouldn't they? Before the awards ceremony, though, David Krejci have you met Tomas Plekanec?

The Boston is generally a idiotic as it is ignorant. For example, on the hundredth anniversary of the Canadiens, the knowledgeable scribe has this inane comment:

"Dec. 4 at Canadiens: The Habs have more new faces than a Beverly Hills Nieman Marcus. But the Bruins treat them just the same as Montreal’s old guard — with utter contempt."

His other comments are childish and planted for a reaction. So go read it. There's never a bad time to get riled up about the Bruins.

Canadiens contracts

Also in the news was a couple of Canadiens contracts.

Guillaume Latendresse signed the smartest contract of his career. In taking less than last season, he's won big PR points and showed he has a head on his shoulders. If the Canadiens are pressed for cap space, they won't be trading or benching the 16-goal winger who plays for $800,000. It's a no-lose situation for him and for us. I'm very happy with the news.

Shawn Belle also signed to a two-way deal. I haven't seen him play, but all other signs point to him being a good guy to have around. He's bulky, versed in Lemaire hockey and put up very nice numbers in Hamilton last season. It's also good news as I see it, even if he's to stay on the farm and keep that situation steady for this season.


Robert Lang

The very reliable rumour site (reliable in that you can always expect that 2.5% of all rumours they report, no more, no less will come to pass), has stated that Lang will be playing in Russia this season. Expect him to sign anywhere but with 97.5% reliablilty promptly.

Less surprising is Eric Engels total and continuing contempt for the KHL:

"Welcome to the KHL Robert Lang, where they don’t mind paying big bucks for a guy with a limited skating stride, who just recovered from a torn Achilles, at the age of 38. If he wanted less he’d still be playing in the NHL, and likely Montreal, but it’ll be hard to ignore the financial incentive that Avangard Omsk is giving him."

I guess Eric doesn't remember everyone eating these very words as recently as January. I guess 6 months is a long time when there's always another rumour to invent.

I hope Robert does what's best for Robert. He was a pleasure to watch, and from what I heard a gentleman. Omsk and Jagr might not be such a backwards step as KHL-bashers want to believe.

An Ode To Heroes

On the very eve of free agency, some thoughts go to the players who may be leaving and whose skills we will have to replace in order to progress:


Saku Koivu
Lasting memory (Game 6 return vs. Bruins 2008):

"It was a triumphant return for the skipper tonight and all that was really missing was the most important piece of the puzzle - the win. He had 2 assists, was 71% in the face-off circle and was just one of 3 forwards to end with a positive +/-"

Alexei Kovalev
Lasting memory (Show of pride in Game 60 2009 vs. Ottawa):

"Alex's truly magnificent return to the line-up was highlighted by his first 3 point game in over a year. Unlike RDS (who's evidence are stats alone), I wouldn't immediately claim that this was his best game in a year, but I think it was a very strong performance. Aside from the strong offensive play, which also included a few other very dangerous chances, there was also some very strong defensive play. He was our best penalty-killer and played a very responsible 2-way game."

Alex Tanguay
Lasting memory (Game 73, the reunion):

"What a game for Alex! He scored 2 goals and assisted on 3 others for a whopping 5 points. He looked very comfortable playing with Kovalev and Koivu as the 3 players seemed to click right from the start of the game. Tonight's Tanguay was the one we saw in October and, although we have seen glimpses recently, it is great to have him back. What I liked the most about his play was the puck movement and the vision. At heart I believe he is a play-maker who sees the ice like few others, but he obviously has great hands and can score too."

Mike Komisarek

Robert Lang

Francis Bouillon

Mathieu Dandenault

Patrice Brisebois
May the nightmare end. For all of us.

Tom Kostopoulos

No doubt we'll see some of you again. To those that must go, fare well.

Is Koivu On The Outs?

Gainey hasn't said anything in near 3 weeks, yet the Ottawa Sun (via a affiliated newspaper) seems to have the inside track on the Canadiens situation.

Stated very surely, here it is:

It would appear Saku Koivu’s days with the Canadiens are finished. The Habs captain will likely test the UFA market, although talk has resurfaced that he’s simply going to pack his bags for Minnesota to play with brother Mikko on the Wild. The Habs, meanwhile, are trying to sign D Mike Komisarek and RW Alexei Kovalev. Komisarek is expected to test the market, while Kovalev is expected to stay in Montreal.

Garrioch's notorious for being a rumour-monger. But I've seen the Kovalev (now discredited) report from Russia used by journalists nearly every day for three weeks now. We all know the level of research they do is minimal, probably less than us amateurs. But honestly. A Russian report? Discredited a day after it was written? Do we still have to read the off shoots of this garbage.


The real answer re: Koivu is that we simply don't know. We don't know whether he has been contacted by Gainey at all or was signed 2 weeks ago. All we do know is that Tanguay is not priority number one.

One thing I am now getting a better picture of is public opinion. Well at least some of it. RDS recently added a game called "Jouez au DG". The application allows a punter like you or me to use the current signed and delivered Canadiens team (did anyone else think we were stuck with Metropolit? quite unfortunate) as a basis for adding free agents only.

It seems like a fun idea.


Salary

One interesting aspect of the game is that it sets players salaries. For the most part they look like they are in the right ballpark, although there are a few bargains to be had and a few no one will pay – like Tanguay at $5 million and Bouillon at $2.5M (I wonder how that happened?). Anyway, according to the computer, Saku Koivu comes in at a salary of $4 million a year. That makes him the 4th highest salaried centre and the 12th highest among forwards. His $4 million puts him below teammates Kovalev, Tanguay and Komisarek (seems logical).


Popularity

Given the low salary, one might think Koivu would make a popular choice for a team in need of two centres to spearhead their offence. Not so. Maybe not too surprising, but I didn't expect Koivu on board to draw a blank.

When you search the most recent editions of teams to the website for "Koivu", that's just what Saku did – nothing comes up. Not one person has re-signed Saku for the upcoming season.

Here's a quick summary of the UFAs that were signed from the page that I saw:

Robert Lang (7)
Alex Tanguay (6)
Francois Beauchemin (5)
Alex Kovalev (5)
Jay Bouwmeester (4)
Erik Cole (3)
Ian Laperriere (3)
Henrik Sedin (3)
Mike Komisarek (3)
Mike Comrie (2)
Daniel Sedin (2)
Manny Malhotra (2)
Steve Begin (2)
Mathieu Schneider (1)
Mark Recchi (1)
Stephane Yelle (1)
Rob Scuderi (1)
Marian Gaborik (1)
Chad LaRose (1)
Jason Williams (1)
Maxim Afinogenov (1)
Mathieu Dandenault (1)
Rhett Warrener (1)
Nick Boynton (1)
Mike Cammalleri (1)
Andrew Raycroft (1)
Denis Gauthier (1)
Stephane Veilleux (1)
Todd Bertuzzi (1)
Andre Roy (1)
Dany Sabourin (1)


Now those were the selections of the public (thank goodness our GM has hockey knowledge), but not to be outdone three RDS experts also contributed – offering another Koivu blanking:

Gaston Therrien signed these UFAs:

Alex Tanguay at $5M
Erik Cole at $2.5M
Alex Kovalev at $4.25M
Mike Cammalleri at $4.5M
Mike Komisarek at $4.5M
Francois Beauchemin at $5M

(He's such an astute GM that he allowed less than $3M to sign all the rest of players needed to ice a team)


Alain (Le Baron) Chantelois signed these UFAs:

Alex Tanguay at $5M
Chris Neil at $2.6M
Alex Kovalev at $4.25M
Mike Cammalleri at $4.5M
Francis Bouillon at $2.5M
Francois Beauchemin at $5M
Nick Boynton at $3M

(I think he showed his special touch in signing Bouillon for a $0.8M raise while leaving less than a minor league salary in buffer)

It goes on and on. You can read their choices here.

(Note: Please forgive them for signing no reserves, they haven't watched much hockey. Plus they were all too busy throwing money at Beauchemin)


Why no Koivu?

It's a funny thing, this complete omission of Koivu.

We all watched the playoffs. We all watched last year too (pre-broken foot and post-broken foot). But memories, it seems are fickle.

Koivu, it seems is being blamed by the fans for 16 years of blah. It's unfair that he would be, but he's the one constant isn't he? (Well there's that defender, but he was such a big contributor to the 1993 championship that he's rightly forgiven).

I am not looking forward to the day that Koivu is not a Hab, but I might be able to manage. If losing Koivu is a step the team must take to progress – to make room for a Sedin, for example, then I might see the value. I can't stomach losing Koivu to make room for Mike Comrie. I can't stand losing Koivu so that Komisarek can play as the 5th defenceman on $4.5 million a year. I won't be happy if Tanguay gets recalled before Saku or if the $4 million we cave on Koivu is spent on a raft of Gauthiers and Laperrieres.


One thing is clear, if Koivu is re-signed, and becomes the longest serving captain in team history, there will be many unhappy people in the rank and file. Equally clear is that many of those who will be unhappy (based on this sample) have as much hockey sense as Rejean Houle...

Game #1-4Defence and Scoring, Not Toughness, Sends Boston Through

The Canadiens Game in Review

Date: Wednesday April 22nd, 2009
Opponent: Boston Bruins
Venue: Bell Centre, Montreal, QC

Team Stripes

Final Score: 1-4 - Loss

Habs starting goalie: Carey Price (L)
Opposition starting goalie: Tim Thomas (W)

Habs goalscorers: Andrei Kostitsyn
Opposition goalscorers: Michael Ryder (2), David Krejci, Phil Kessel

Play of the game
The play you're straining to see on the press catwalk monitor...

Our lone goal had 21,273 people believing that a comeback may just be possible. The Habs started the game extremely well and managed to score that goal 40 seconds in. Nice passing by Kovalev and Koivu led to Kostitsyn having the puck on his stick just outside of the high-slot. A quick, well-placed, shot found its way through and gave the Habs the lead they so desperately needed.

Game puck
Trophies are for the end of the year, play well in the game, you get a lovely puck...

Christopher Higgins
Higgins completed what was quite a solid playoffs tonight with another convincing performance. He has gone from a player that I was ready to let go, about a month ago, to a piece that I think is crucial to our success. We will need 6 better forwards than him, that is for sure, but as a penalty-killer and third-liner he has done well. I liked how he fought for pucks in the offensive zone tonight and how he never gave up. He has played some of his best hockey of late, when it counted the most.



Dome hockey team
We're going into the last minute with these 6 (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...

Forwards

Alexei Kovalev
Kovy chipped in an assist tonight as he was once again in on our main chances. His line played well, but went up against the dominant Chara on too many occasions. He was our best player on the PP, but we were missing the point-men to really get anything going. I think that the way he played in this series was another great indication of his true value and I hope that this wasn't his last game in le bleu, blanc et rouge.

Christopher Higgins
Chris had a look of frustration on his face all night and one would have to think he was showing a year's worth in this one. His season started with injury and only went downhill from there. He worked his way off a top-2 line by mid-season and only towards the end did he turn it around. This season Christopher may have cost himself future millions, but I think that he still belongs here. That look also showed that he cared, that he was upset about the way this all ended.

Andrei Kostitsyn
I am glad that Andrei scored tonight and only wish that he would have had another couple in him. He also played a strong game without the puck as he was quite physical along the boards. His main talent, however, is clearly his shot and it will be the new coach's challenge to find a way to get that shot off more during a game. Tonight he showed that playing alongside Kovalev is no problem as they were both two of our strongest players.

Defencemen

Mathieu Dandenault
Mat has probably (hopefully) played his last game as a Hab and tonight it was a decent one. It is unfortunate when he outplays players like Hamrlik and Komisarek, but tonight that was the case. Tonight he played for 25 minutes, blocked 4-shots, was even and joined in the attack quite nicely as he contributed 2 shots.

Josh Gorges
Josh was one of only 2 of our defencemen (Weber) not to be on the ice for a goal-against tonight which is considerable because he led the team with 26 minutes of ice. His highlight was a hip-check on Lucic during the first period, when the game was still within reach - the crowd went wild. I don't think that Josh can really be a top-3 defenceman in this league, but tonight he played with enough heart that he made up for it. I hope that he'll be back, but he needs at least 3-4 guys to step up ahead of him as 26 minutes is too much for this guy.

Goaltender

Jaroslav Halak
Carey didn't exactly cost us this game all on his own, but he didn't help the cause by any stretch of the imagination. Letting in 4 goals on 30 shots won't win you many games and isn't really what we needed to claw back into this one. There were a few key saves early on, but he never looked sure of himself all game. Aside from the goal there were posts and other near misses (on which he was beat) and my personal favorite, his arm-wave to the crowd after an easy save. It reminded me of Roy's last game as a Hab, maybe this will be the end for this 'All-Star' too.



Eye-Openers
In this new section we are going to try and shed some light on certain plays or events that would otherwise go unnoticed

The Habs were, once again, obsessed with physical play tonight. It was as if their pre-series strategy was based on TSN and CBC's false analysis which suggested that we weren't tough enough to face the Bruins. The ironic part of all of it is that while we were running around hitting them, they were the ones using their speed and scoring against us. Once those were considered our qualities, but I am no longer a believer of the myth that we art a fast team. If we were fast I would have liked to have seen Phil Kessel-like speed in at least one of the games, but I never did. Instead I saw Komisarek thinking that he was tougher than actual tough guys and I saw players who don't know how to hit getting hurt or penalized for their careless play. In the end we tried to play a new style, we tried to change our game, while the Bruins took a page from our 2008 books and beat us with goals and speed.

Overall Comments

I really liked how the game started and felt that after the first 17 minutes the Bruins were lucky to only be down by 1. We were all over Boston and I was thinking that a win tonight, coupled with some players coming back for Saturday's game could make this a real series. The Bruins, however, had other plans as they scored 2 late goals in the first to go up for good. First it was Hamrlik's turn to make the cough-up of the year to Ryder and then it was Komisarek (going to centre-ice to lay an unnecessary hit - at least he can use that to make more money when he is contract searching this summer - luckily for him no one watches hockey and they all actually think that he is good) and Higgins (getting badly beat on the half-boards) that made the mistakes on goal #2. We had a chance in the second to tie it up on the PP, but instead it was Boston who got the best chance after killing it off. The play was off-side, but that didn't stop Kessel from firing past a motionless Price. At that point the game was over and unfortunately the Habs played like it until the final horn.

I felt that some players played well tonight and some had great seasons. I am disappointed with the way that it ended, but not too surprised. Here is a team that is playing one of the worst goalies in the league on a nightly basis (the frustrating part is that we had a viable option), that has injuries to 4 of of it's top 10 players, that was up against the top team in the East (who were playing not only their best goalie, but one of the league's best and who had no major injuries) and that posted a pathetic 14 wins in the final 42 games of the year. It is of course upsetting tonight, but we all knew that this was coming, we knew it about 3 months ago. I want to thank you all, however, for what has been a fun season for me of talking and writing about hockey. I will never give up on this team and tomorrow marks the first day in a long countdown until training camp.

Game #802 Games in 2 Nights; Apparently Too Much To Ask

The Canadiens Game in Review

Date: Tuesday April 7th, 2009
Opponent: New York Rangers
Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Team StripesScore: 1 - 3 Loss

Habs starting goalie: Carey Price (L)
Opposition starting goalie: Henrik Lundqvist (W)

Habs goalscorers: Mathieu Dandenault
Opposition goalscorers: Chris Drury (2), Nikolai Antropov

Play of the game
The play you're straining to see on the press catwalk monitor...

I don't know if this was the best play tonight, but it was probably my favorite. I actually wish there was an offensive play that stood out, but alas I choose this play in what wasn't a huge game for the Habs. Completely out of position Price had to scramble as a Ranger player attempted a wrap-around. He got over to the right side with his stick and made what was quite an incredible save. The save alone, however, wasn't it as right after Avery was drilled into the net as he crashed for a rebound. Seeing that guy get hit like that makes about every hockey fan other than Avery's parents pretty happy.

Game puck
Trophies are for the end of the year, play well in the game, you get a lovely puck...

Matt D'Agostini
This was hard to choose, but not because there were a few good choices, mostly because there were none. Of the players though Matt stood out for me as he brought a certain new energy to our team. With the defence we are icing we are going to need a lot of goals and so I was glad to see goal-scorers like D'Ags and Andrei K back in and can only hope Sergei and Lang will be back soon too.


Dome hockey team
We're going into the last minute with these 6 (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...

Forwards

Mathieu Dandenault
Mat played a decent game as he more often than not does. He was the only Hab to score tonight and, even though the goal wasn't too pretty, he was right to take that type of shot. A desperate team (like a team trying desperately to make the playoffs in a centennial year) must play with desperation. I didn't see enough of that tonight, but Dandy's goal was a good example of what we need.

Matt D'Agostini
Plekanec's line had the most jump tonight of any line even if they were on the ice for a couple of goals against. I for one will venture to look beyond the stats and claim that horrible plays by our goalie and D were hardly this line's fault. Of the three players Matt was the best and came the closest to scoring. He hit the post in the third and also put a game-high 6 other shots on net.

Alexei Kovalev
Kovy didn't play a bad game tonight, but he was neutralized a bit too easily for my liking. When he had the puck he did fine, but in the end he wasn't getting enough of the it. Without Markov we don't have that player who can find Alex at all times on the ice; instead we have guys who's passes go to the other team. Kovy needs help out there, tonight he looked alone.

Defencemen

Roman Hamrlik
I'm not sure that I like Roman's penalty tonight, but given the fact that about 10 worse plays went uncalled I will not complain. He was the most complete of our D-men and one of the only ones to play responsibly in his own end for the entire game. There is no way that Gorges should be seeing more ice than Roman as we need him to play close to 30 minutes if we are to have any chance at all.

Ryan O'Byrne
This just happens to be a classic case of: best of the rest. Ryan obviously didn't play too badly tonight as I didn't notice any major mistakes - on a night like tonight that means that he played well. He avoided stupid penalties and played close to 17 minutes of 'no-goals-against' defence.

Goaltender

Jarsolav Halak
Carey may have only let up 3 goals tonight, but let's face it he was lucky. That total could have easily been higher with a little more Ranger luck. A post, a shot that landed on the top of the net and another one that got through, but trickled wide are all examples of his poor play tonight. He didn't play to the level that we need right now, it wasn't playoff (on an injury-ridden team) type hockey. Over the past two months Halak has been our man - it should have continued tonight.



Eye-Openers
In this new section we are going to try and shed some light on certain plays or events that would otherwise go unnoticed

Tonight, thanks to the lack of 3 of our top 6 defenders, we had a lot of trouble moving the puck up the ice. We didn't have the guys at the back that can either carry the puck themselves or, better yet, hit our forwards in full stride. Instead our most successful zone-gains came when our forwards took matters into their own hands. This meant that these players often had to go back to retrieve pucks which in turn allowed for New York to be better prepared. Gone was anything up the middle as our new, slow approach happens along the boards and with dump-ins. I am not sure what impact this aspect of play will have on us long-term (I am hoping long-term is more than 2 games), but tonight it killed our attack. For the first time all year I am doubting whether we actually have the players in place to get the job done. Where are you Francis? That would at least be a good start.

Overall Comments

Our first period was alright, but it wasn't that good. I never got the feeling like we were trying to win the game, instead it looked like we were trying for that single point. Why on earth the Habs don't start the game as though they are a goal down with a minute to play or with the goal of beating a team by 5 goals, I'll never know. Like a high school student 6 hours from deadline we are trying to do the minimum amount of work possible. New York played into our trap in the first period, but soon realized that this game could be theirs with little to no effort. The Habs looked tired, out of ideas and worried as this game just kind of went by with little emotion. A win of course could have clinched a playoff berth, but we are now getting very close to the 'depending-on-others' stage of playoff qualification. I remember how 2 years ago we didn't take matters into our own hands in the last week and we watched as a Islander team - playing with tons of spirit - came out of nowhere to stun us and the Leafs. We have 2 more games, as do FLA and NYR, but, for heaven's sake, let's do the smart thing and win a game ourselves. 1 point and we are in, but boys, trust me, play for the win.

Game #73The Comibination We Never Tried - Our 3 Best Players - Pays Dividends

The Canadiens Game in Review

Date: Tuesday March 24th, 2009
Opponent: Atlanta Thrashers
Venue: Bell Centre, Montreal, QC

Team Stripes

Final Score: 6-3 - Win

Habs starting goalie: Carey Price (W)
Opposition starting goalie: Kari Lehtonen (L)

Habs goalscorers: Alex Tanguay (2), Glen Metropolit, Alexei Kovalev (2), Saku Koivu
Opposition goalscorers: Joseph Crabb, Ilya Kovalchuk, Zach Bogosian

Play of the game
The play you're straining to see on the press catwalk monitor...

This play will go down as a serious candidate for the Habs goal of the year. A very nice pass to open space by Kovalev started it all off and then it was all Tanguay. Alex took control of the puck near the blue-line and made 2 very good moves to get around a flat-footed Ron Hainsey. It was then Lehtonen's turn to be undressed as the stickhandling continued. He finished it off by sliding the puck off Kari's pads ever so subtly.

Game puck
Trophies are for the end of the year, play well in the game, you get a lovely puck...

Alex Tanguay
What a game for Alex! He scored 2 goals and assisted on 3 others for a whopping 5 points. He looked very comfortable playing with Kovalev and Koivu as the 3 players seemed to click right from the start of the game. Tonight's Tanguay was the one we saw in October and, although we have seen glimpses recently, it is great to have him back. What I liked the most about his play was the puck movement and the vision. At heart I believe he is a play-maker who sees the ice like few others, but he obviously has great hands and can score too.



Dome hockey team
We're going into the last minute with these 6 (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...

Forwards

Alexei Kovalev
On any other night Alex's performance would have been game-puck worthy. Tonight, however (and thankfully for us) he was one-upped by Tangs. Kovalev, for his part, also scored 2 goals and added an assist. Aside from that he had two other glorious opportunities (one of which rang off the iron) and drew at least 2 penalties. This is the type of big-game performance I expected from him and the type we will need from now until golf-season (whenever that may be).

Saku Koivu
Let's not forget the third man of a very impressive trio as Koivu too had a great game. 3 points (1 goal and 2 assists) matches a season-high he set on October 11th against the Leafs. The skipper now has his two best linemates of the season (no offence to D'Agostini and Higgins) and you could see the energy and enthusiasm in his play. I thought Gainey used him wisely tonight as he was finally brought back onto the PK. He was on the ice for 5 of our goals and none of theirs.

Alex Tanguay
For some reason people in Quebec haven't embraced Tanguay as the French superstar they have been longing for. I, for one, can't understand it as he is clearly a star and is our best French-born player (non-goalie) in years. He adds such a great element to our team when you consider the other weapons we also have up front. I hope this line sticks together even if they don't produce in every game as I saw more chemistry from those 3 than I have from any other trio in quite a few games.

Defencemen

Andrei Markov
We scored 3 PP goals in the second period and it, therefore, comes as no surprise that Markov was very involved tonight. In all he picked up another 3 assists to give him 48 on the year. He was on the ice for 4 of our goals and none against. Markov and Komi formed our best duo tonight as they both played a very solid defensive game. I was happy we only conceded 25 shots to Atlanta which is where it should be on a nightly basis. Andrei has been our best defenceman (by far) in both ends all season; tonight it was nice to see some others following his lead.

Roman Hamrlik
Komi played better tonight, but still took 2 penalties, and I liked what Josh and Mat did, but the stand-out amongst the rest was Hammer for me. He finally played like the #2 we so desperately need him to be. He didn't get in on the scoring parade, but did do some nice work on the second wave of the PP. In all he played over 23 minutes which included over 5 minutes on the PK.

Goaltender

Carey Price
The game started well for Carey as I noticed he was very active in his net. His head was in constant motion and he was challenging shooters at the top of his crease. The body language for me said he was confident. I can't say I was too impressed with his play, or style, on either of the first 2 goals, but he didn't let it bog him down for the remainder of the game. Letting in 3 goals is risky behind this team of hot/cold scorers, but he never put us in a position where we were playing catch-up. So, by always keep the game at least tied he gave us the chance we needed to win. I hope that he can build on this and I also hope that the offence can once again go about their work to make Carey's job a little easier.



Eye-Openers
In this new section we are going to try and shed some light on certain plays or events that would otherwise go unnoticed

We saw the value of Power-Plays tonight and not just because we scored on them, but because they disrupt the other team's flow. Too many times over the past few weeks have I sat and watched as the Habs shoot themselves in the foot by taking a bad penalty. Not only do the chances of an ensuing goal increase, but it basically saps all the energy out of the team. It doesn't tend to be just 2 minutes and then back to normal, often the effects can last for many minutes. In fact, it often takes a penalty to the other team before the momentum is shifted. This of course isn't the case with all teams, it is, however, the case with the Habs. You can see, therefore, the importance of avoiding successive penalties and the advantage of having a few PP's of your own in a row. Tonight our 4 straight PP's in the second led to 3 goals and a period owned by us (for a change). It effectively took Atlanta right out of a game that they were doing well in (2-2 and only having conceded 5 shots to that point). So, to me the most important thing isn't scoring on the PP (although that of course helps), but it is drawing penalties. A team that is skating hard and pressuring the other team will often get the calls in their favour. The importance, therefore, of a sustained effort from all players, at all times, is paramount to our success. My favorite penalty-draw tonight was when Lehtonen shot the puck over the glass. It was Sergei Kostitsyn who forced him to make this mistake with some very intense fore-checking. This, and other similar plays, are what the Habs have been missing of late and it all of course stems from effort, emotion and energy.

Overall Comments

We needed 2 points and it didn't matter how we got them. The way we did win that game, however, was quite encouraging. On one hand it is only Atlanta and you could also say that we were due for a win. On the other you could note that Atlanta has been decent of late and has owned us twice this calendar year. It is a win, it is 2 points, but 83 points won't get us into the playoffs - we must continue. The most positive thing about this game, however, is how we won. We never trailed, we scored 6 goals, our PP was working and we have gotten our stars clicking by finally trying the Ottawa approach of putting your 3 best weapons together. We played a decent defensive game allowing only 25 shots. I should point out though that we gave the puck up 19 times, Atlanta did it 3 times. Tonight was an example of how you can get away with some (a lot) of mistakes when you are scoring and when you are playing against a team that is nether great nor really trying. That approach won't, however, work against teams like Buffalo and Chicago who are more talented and have more incentive right now. At the end of the day I liked how we played tonight, but mostly only in relation to how we have been playing. This game wouldn't look so great had it come in December, but now I think every one's expectations are way lower now. So, I can only hope that we can build on this and that we can take the positives out of this one and remember them for the rest of the season. I think that Gainey gave us a very good look at the team he expects to use from now until the end of the year. I doubt we'll see much of D'Agostini or O'Byrne and think that Price will be given every chance in the world, at any cost. The only relief to come is Bouillon, who will be a very welcome replacement of Brisebois, and Lang if we get to the 2nd round and beyond. I say, leave the lines as is and work with this group, they showed tonight that they are capable, so I say no more excuses from them.

UFA DumpAs Hit And Miss As Any Other Trade

Unrestricted free agency as we know it today was born out of the 1994-95 Owner's Lockout. Prior to that point, the stipulation as to ages for free agency weren't as clear as they are today.

The idea of restricted and unrestricted free agents has since played a major role in days like today for over a decade. Pundits love free agency because it gives them a good clue as to some of the players that might be moved at the deadline. Players love it as it gives them leverage to make salary demands.

I don't think the GMs like it though. I wouldn't if I was a GM. The UFA environment on trade deadline day can be a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario for GMs. Any number of supporters will line up behind the idea of keeping a star. Another segment is drawn to the idea that if there is something to be had, it is better than 20 games and gone for the given player.

The Canadiens and their unrestricted free agents

GMs of the Montreal Canadiens are no strangers to this dilemma. Last season Gainey was both praised and reviled for dealing Cristobal Huet for a second round draft pick. The year before, it was the same when he held onto Sheldon Souray.

In all the Canadiens have 9 times dealt an unrestricted free agent after the turn of the new year, lest they be lost for nothing. Rather predictably, only one of the trades in this category can be qualified as outright wins:

1) Craig Rivet and a 5th round pick for Josh Gorges and a 1st round pick (now Max Pacioretty)


In retrospect, several are losers, considering the player sent the other way:

1) Eric Weinrich for Patrick Traverse
2) Mark Recchi for Dainius Zubrus and a 2nd, 4th and 6th round pick
3) Vincent Damphousse for a 1st, 2nd and 5th round pick


If you're not getting a player...

If you're not getting a player for a star UFA, chances are we will be here in 5 years writing about a bad trade. It's just odds. If you get a player, you can still lose (Traverse). But if you trust your scouts, a player is a better bet. A pro player has already shown what he can do against other pros – there are far fewer unknown quantities. I would suggest the Rivet trade as proof of what good pro scouting can do.

The Mark Recchi and Vincent Damphousse trades illustrate the problem with thinking that a lot of draft picks are value for a star player. The chances of getting another player like Recchi or Damphousse in the draft is not worth the gamble (even in the first round). When you consider that Mark Recchi has played 9 seasons since that trade, won a Cup, had 7 20+ goal seasons and even a 91-point campaign; you'd be lucky to select a player at number one and replicate that.

In general, first round picks can be reliable. Beyond that is a crap shoot. Getting 3 extra picks allows for more long-shot picks on draft day – but as these trades showed, those kinds of picks are called that for a reason.


Holding vs. trading

I hate the cliche "Trade him, or we'll lose him for nothing." First of all, it's not true – you have the player for 20 more games, plus playoffs if you are there. Secondly, if you're team is never able to attract or retain players once they get to a certain level – then you are in bigger trouble than you know. The Montreal Canadiens for all their griping about losing money, have never been a poor brother in the NHL, though they acted like one in 1999.

The value of holding the player must be weighed fully against the value of trading. That player for 20+ games vs. the package coming back. In the Rivet trade, the package was very good – a functional NHL defenceman and a first round pick that year. It turned into a bigger win later as Gorges showed he fits in better than Rivet did at the end. Presumably the package offered for Souray that very same year was not as good, so Gainey weighed and opted for 20 games with his PP point man.

No playoffs

If there is no chance of the playoffs, as was the case in 7 of the 9 trades (1999, 2001, 2003), then the weight of the player being around for 20 games takes a lot less meaning, of course. Those 20 games would be either for the pleasure of the fans, the hope of re-signing or some kind of good will to the player. These scenarios certainly make it more forgivable to talk about losing for nothing, and for making a trade for anything, anything at all.

Playoffs

If the team is firmly in the race for the playoffs, as was the case at the deadline the past two seasons. These assessments change quite dramatically. In these cases, trading a major star ahead of the "real season" indicates a GM is wavering in earlier plans.

Consider that in the playoffs, there is an expanded roster size and more roster flexibility; and all salaries are already paid to boot. Keeping a major piece (someone that the GM (at least, previously) thought was a major cog in the machine makes much more sense. 20 games + playoffs certainly isn't nothing. Considering the playoffs are the first time of year a team gets to play for a trophy (well, one that anyone cares about) – it seems to me that keeping once valuable pieces just in case has value in itself.


Current Canadiens UFAs

On that note, I look to players others are floating as possible trade bait from the Canadiens as possible trade bait – simply based on contract status:

1) Saku Koivu
I wouldn't trade a guy who rescued the team while nursing a broken foot

Offer to change my mind: None.


2) Alexei Kovalev
Trading Kovalev during his least productive season is asking for egg in the face

Offer to change my mind: Winger who can score, as well as carry the puck.


3) Alex Tanguay
Gainey acquired Alex Tanguay for good reason (did he not?). Trading him now would raise serious questions about our GM's one-year plan (let alone 5+ year plan)

Offer to change my mind: Jere Lehtinen.


4) Robert Lang
Injury rather settled this issue


5) Tom Kostopoulos
He's one of those value for money kind of guys. I think he's easily signable.

Offer to change my mind: Only an upgrade – no sideways maneuvering.


6) Francis Bouillon
Has more value to this franchise as an interview target than any 6th round pick could return. I also think he can be re-signed and I'd encourage that.

Offer to change my mind: Only an upgrade – no sideways maneuvering.


7) Mathieu Dandenault
Wants to be traded. Want to trade him. Would be hard to low-ball me here.

Offer to deal him: Someone who can skate.


8) Mike Komisarek
The most interesting possibility. Everyone needs a defenceman. Everyone reads stats. Komisarek could return value. But as a rental?

Offer to change my mind: A young defender who knows his trade – it would take a Rivet:Gorges type revelation. Not impossible.


9) Mathieu Schneider
I don't think Gainey would turn two trades only to upgrade his draft picks – seems like a lot of work...

Offer to change my mind: None.


10) Patrice Brisebois
Get real

Offer to deal him: It's been so painful to get to 1,000, I want it to end right. End is the operative word.


As you can see, I wouldn't be an exciting GM either. Unlike Waddell who is, I care about winning a few games. I'm glad Gainey seems to be of like mind. Frankly, with all the prospects we have (a few who are sure to be logjammed or busts), I don't see the need to take a loss on a UFA at this point. Plenty of trade bait lying around as it is.