Laraque The Irrelevant

I think I join Dennis Kane in saying "Georges has to admit he hurt his team last night".

About 8:30 into the first period against the Red Wings, Georges Laraque put on a display of irresponsible play and (yes, Don Cherry) complete lack of respect for his fellow competitors. It's a sequence of play that didn't endear him to teammates and has him in the NHL disciplinary dock today to defend himself.

The first incident (seen in the video below) shows how Laraque in attempting to cover the pass lets the puck by him, choosing instead to unleash a slash on Darren Helm. The slash being high caught Helm across the face, was perhaps unfortunate (certainly for Laraque it was) but nothing but a slash was intended from the motion.

The second incident, and the one of the controversy, sees Laraque caught out by his slow feet and poor positioning again. This time, knowing he's in the box for a slash, he opts for the "safer" trip option to end the Wings threat. The problem being that Kronwall, the skilled player in this confrontation, saw the check and maneuvered around the oaf. Laraque in reaction sticks his knee way out and gives one of those hits that makes players just watching on TV cringe.



The result for Laraque was 6 minutes of penalties. For Helm, it was a sore face. And for Kronwall a high grade knee sprain.

The play, apart from leaving me feeling quite ashamed, in the end left me with only one question: what is this guy even doing on our team?

The irrelevance of Georges Laraque is a question that has been around for some time. His relevance must surely be in question again. The fact that Detroit chose to respond to the intimidation and thuggery dished out by Laraque with 2 PP goals, no penalties (Abdelkader's was a dud) and a win speaks volumes about Laraque himself. No one thought it necessary to fight Laraque because fighting Laraque counts for nothing in the standings. Fighting is not down in the NHL, but the staged fighting that Laraque offers as his only redeeming quality is certainly on the wane. Some teams, like ubiquitous front runners Detroit and New Jersey just don't fight at all. League leaders San Jose just have a tough team. The point being, aside from the odd team, Laraque doesn't have many opponents against whom he has use.


No intimidation

The biggest shout from all Laraque supporters is always that Georges is a great, no the best, deterrent against teams roughing up the regular Canadiens in the NHL. I have to say, there was a brief time when I bought this theory – it was the time before I saw our team in action with Georges there.

Last year, we examined the Laraque issue in the fall, just after his failures to do anything in consecutive games to prevent intimidation tactics from opponents. Our verdict then (and it hasn't changed) is that:

"A player that can't play, can't hit, won't stand up for teammates unless it's organised the day before, doesn't scare anyone"

I think two moments that epitomised Georges Laraque's irrelevance last fall were the vicious hit on Andrei Kostitsyn and Milan Lucic running wild against all comers.

In the Kostitsyn case, Georges did fight. He fought Todd Fedoruk nearly a full period after the transgression. Too bad he couldn't fight Kurt Sauer, the player who transgressed as he was not in his league. That intimidation was left to Tom Kostopoulos, who promptly lost the fight for Andrei's honour. Georges won his fight. But who did he intimidate? Not Fedoruk who earns his pay by not being intimidated. Not Sauer, who only learned there would be nothing to fear from Big Georges for certain.

In the Lucic case, the Boston player was just being his usual charming self all over the ice. And, while nothing he did was (too) illegal, he was causing havoc for the fear he struck into the likes of Bouillon, Gorges and co. as Boston walked the puck into the net 6 times. After a couple of big hits on Komisarek in particular, it might have been nice had Big Georges stepped in and told the little one to settle down. He didn't. Instead, Komisarek had to be a big boy and fight his own battle. It was the fight where he lost use of his shoulder, and perhaps more importantly his mojo, as he was trounced by the 20-year-old in mere seconds. Lucic like Sauer learns in no uncertain terms after the game that he has nothing at all to fear from Laraque, because Laraque asks people to fight, and if they decline (no matter their actions in that game) he relents.


Is anyone scared of this guy anymore?

Really, the revelation that players were beyond Laraque's remit was only his first step towards total and utter irrelevance.

The next sign that he may be on his last NHL contract (woe, that it be on our team...) was that no one really seemed to be afraid of the big guy anymore anyway. This season has been a case in point. While the non-fighters quite happily go about their business of grappling and taking liberties with our regulars (hello Calgary), even the fighters don't seem to worry anymore about the prospect of the hulking #17 bearing down on them with a fight RSVP. You only have to watch:


This fight was judged by the regular readers of Hockeyfights.com to be a draw, though narrowly. The important thing for me, is not that Laraque used his judo takedown to end the fight, but that Colton Orr happily landed more punches, did not alter his play after the fact and was the one smiling after the bout. Orr had won the battle because he didn't lose. Orr had won because he showed he wasn't to be intimidated.


In this, Georges' second fight of the season, Laraque was cleanly beaten. If Georges was the heavyweight champ of the NHL, this fight would have seen Erskine walking away with the belt. Georges, the instigator by the way, didn't land a punch, nor did he look to be able to. Instead all he did was take. Erskine walks away from this knowing he can go about his business since he can defend himself perfectly well.


Few fights

Besides the fact he doesn't intimidate, it seems that Georges may have got it into his head that he is here to play hockey for some reason. Goodness knows why a player of his ilk would think that. The evidence is in the frequency of his fighting. This season, we're talking about two fights over 10 games. Last season, it was 9 fights over 33 games. That's a whole lot of hockey player Georges. Not a lot of goon/big "scary" Georges.


Brittle

Apart from all this, the guy is a walking injury. Whether it's his back, a hangnail, his shoulder, a shiver, his knees or inadvertent meat ingestion, Laraque always finds a way to be out of the picture.

Now, I don't complain in these instances. But, what it means is that the Canadiens can't even count on Laraque when they might need him. When he is healthy we get a run of games against Washington and Detroit (who don't subscribe to his brand of hockey anyway) and then he nurses his sore back when we might use him.


Habs worse off

In the same way you can show Markov's positive effect on the team, so too can one show Laraque is not a catalyst for success.

The sentimentalists don't need a reminder about the 2007-08 enforcer-less team who battled their way to first in the East with a 47-25-10 record. A team that was able to beat the Bruins 8 times in the regular season and 12 times in 15 tries overall, and the Flyers 4 times in the year and ended up being put down by Briere's passing, Umberger's glove hand aim and Biron's goaltending, rather than any suspension-worthy play.

Take that same team forward a year, with some changes and you get a team with a drop-off to 41-30-11. Dissect this to a with Laraque/ without Laraque level and you get 14-14-5 vs. 27-16-6. Now it's a bit silly to start blaming Laraque for the woes of last season at this point, but I still found it to be an interesting coincidence.

Fast forward to the current season and it's the same sort of story – Georges may not be the root of all evil, yet the team strangely seems to get on better without him. It's 4-5-1 with him in the lineup vs. 7-6-0 without him around.

The place where one might have expected Laraque to wield most influence – the playoffs – was perhaps one place where he showed his irrelevance most. While Game 1 against Boston ended on a chippy note with the Habs showing great life and energy for the fight, the next 3 games were largely washouts. Yet no game-changing fight was forthcoming from Georges. Even given the opportunity all he did was get roughing penalties when Boston came knocking. In fact, his impact in the series was mostly felt through his chance sapping play on the first line as Boston played disciplined hockey that he never once really tried to disrupt.


Bring on the suspension

Disrepute, slow legs, underwhelming return on his mandate. I for one will be looking on at the verdict of the NHL hearing for Georges Laraque today in anticipation. I only hope the NHL may be able to do what both management and the coaches haven't been able to – find a way to get Georges Laraque out of the Habs lineup.

The less irrelevant players we can dress among the 19 from this point forward, the better.

Canadiens Season Preview Outgoing Forwards

After a long summer, the season is just about upon us now. And no season could possibly go forward without a season preview, could it?

Being as this was such a special off-season for the Canadiens organization, we have taken a slightly different, dare I say more factual, approach to the preview. By comparing like statistics against like and contextualizing with a sense of league standing, we hope to show how newcomers might fit in and even change the face of the team. I have done a legend and hidden it in the past.

Anyway, enough rambling, on to the preview.

As I said yesterday, we will begin from the top down, so to speak. From forwards to defence to goalies and each from the top of the depth chart to the bottom.


Outgoing forwards

No preview of a team undergoing such a massive refurbishment could possibly be complete without examining the rubble that were cleared away before the new foundation was laid. First up then is a brief look at the forwards from 2008-09 that will not be back to begin this season.


Saku Koivu

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	65	16	34	50	+4	5	5	0.87	2.71	123	13.0	44
07-08 (MTL)	77	16	40	56	-4	8	3	0.69	2.41	150	10.7	93
06-07 (MTL)	81	22	53	75	-21	11	4	0.90	3.07	154	14.3	74

Even-strength profile
	Top tier offensive performance at even strength Below average defence at even strength Bottom 20% in terms of preventing chances at even strength Negative CORSI: -4.5

Legend

There's plenty to lament with the loss of a teammate like Saku Koivu. It's simplistic to see him as just a captain, because he was also the link to a past generation, an icon in the community and the team. After last year's more pleasant end, I mused on handing Koivu a lifetime extension, something which I supported thus:

Players like Koivu are rare and cannot be obtained easily in this league. He is a leader, a consummate professional and an excellent forward to boot. His ability to elevate his play come big games is well documented and completely invaluable to this team.

Well that's Koivu the full package. What of Koivu the first line centre in regular season action?

What the statistics show me, and have just about always shown is that Koivu is first and foremost about generating offense. Though he flirted with the top of the scoring list in Montreal, both regular season and playoffs, he never came near a Selke trophy nomination. He, like many a first line centre, opted to create offense at the expense of leaving the door open at the back sometimes. As his even strength profile shows, he was a top tier producer at the attacking end, but allowed a raft of chances against. His best statistical season (of 75 points) drives home this lesson with the glaring -21.

Finally, it is this fact that will make Koivu the centre an easier piece to replace. Although Gomez or Plekanec may struggle to put out 3.00 goals for every 60 minutes his line is on the ice, the balance of their output may yet exceed Koivu's by tipping the defensive chances into the green.

Koivu will be missed. Of that I am certain. But until the playoffs kick off, his loss will be easier to cover than after.


Alexei Kovalev

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	78	26	39	65	-5	11	4	1.03	2.57	209	12.4	74
07-08 (MTL)	82	35	49	84	+18	17	5	1.31	3.14	230	15.2	70
06-07 (MTL)	73	18	29	47	-19	8	5	0.81	2.12	197	9.1	78

Even-strength profile
	Average offensive output at even strength Strong defence at even strength (among team leaders) Bottom 20% in terms of preventing chances at even strength Negative CORSI: -5.7

Legend

Kovalev was a master of puck control throughout his time in Montreal. His final masterstroke, however, was a PR deke that made him the man who will be most missed by Canadiens fans across Montreal. While Komisarek continues to be vilified for accepting a few hundred thousand more (several hundred thousand after tax), Kovalev makes the same move and comes out as the man hard done by. It really does speak to the skills he possesses to make something spectacular when given very little.

Making something spectacular out of little is the thing we will surely miss most about Alexei. When you talk about game-breaking skill or dam-busting moves, his were something we have come to count on in Montreal for years now. No longer can we necessarily be assured that the PP will take the zone as the defenders back off, no longer can we assume a man on the left will be left free as Kovy takes double coverage. His highest points will be missed.

But what about the average Alexei Kovalev?

Statistics tell us that the average Kovalev is actually not that gamebreaker, but that he's actually a bit of a dampener. Although his 26 team goals were team high, while he was on the ice, the Canadiens were actually less inclined to score than they were with many other options. Equally (and to Alex's credit), though, his dampening effect extended to defensive play – with among the best GA/60 on the team.

At its best, his patient puck control leads to years like 2007-08 where goals for him and linemates flow and wins naturally follow. At its worst, he is a very good player to have on the ice, though perhaps one getting too much ice time when chasing a lead.

Kovalev, like Koivu will not be easily replaced. But, by virtue of the fact that his game is not without cracks, it does leave room for alternative solutions. If I've read Gainey correctly this off-season, it seems like he hopes his team will be taking a lot more shots this season, and that is something that excluding Kovalev should help to accomplish, simply by vrtue of style.


Alex Tanguay

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	50	16	25	41	+13	5	3	1.19	3.06	76	21.1	34
07-08 (CGY)	78	18	40	58	+11	3	3	0.74	2.38	121	14.9	48
06-07 (CGY)	81	22	59	81	+12	5	0	0.92	3.39	107	20.6	44

Even-strength profile
	Outstanding (and team-leading) offensive performance at even strength Strong defence at even strength (among team leaders) Among league worst in terms of preventing chances at even strength Negative CORSI: -8.5

Legend

In the summer, I suggested that Tanguay's not signing was a puzzle. The more I look into this player, the more confident I am in saying that puzzle is a word that infuses his entire career.

There is no doubt that Alex Tanguay has top-line talent, and that he can fit right into that position on any team today. But why then have two teams in two seasons replaced him with Mike Cammalleri?

The answer is difficult to uncover. If you look at results, Tanguay is a stud. Last year, for example, his 3.32 GF/60 and 2.28 GA/60 when on the ice at even strength was head and shoulders above what anyone else came close to on the Habs. However, looking at chances (and if you extrapolate that to mean what should be happening nine times out of ten), Tanguay is a mess. His line barely generates an average output of shots, many of which don't reach the net, and he is among the very worst in the whole league while allowing 60 chances against per 60 minutes.

If we hadn't watched the player, we could only conclude that he got lucky – that his average shot generation led to more goals than it should and that goalies bailed him out of embarrassing defensive undressings. While I'd be comfortable saying his offensive contribution is not driven by luck, but rather an uncanny timing and skill. I can't remember anything he did on defence that made me think he would merit such high save percentages – I suspect he benefited greatly from missing the two-month goaltending meltdown in this regard.

All told, we are losing a great offensive contributor in Tanguay. But once again, the less than perfect all around package means he's not completely irreplaceable. We're about to find out whether his offensive skills, and those of the first line will be replaced or not.


Christopher Higgins

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	57	12	11	23	-1	2	1	0.74	1.42	151	7.9	22
07-08 (MTL)	82	27	25	52	E	12	5	1.10	2.12	241	11.2	22
06-07 (MTL)	61	22	16	38	-11	8	3	1.21	2.09	159	13.8	26

Even-strength profile
	Above average offensive output at even strength Average defence at even strength Bottom 20% in terms of preventing chances at even strength Negative CORSI: -4.7

Legend

It's hard to nail down Chris Higgins the player with just one stat. The NHL doesn't keep track of good foot positioning when going into the boards, nor good positioning after the break up of play. Equally, the league doesn't track unmissable opportunities misfired or absolute sitters banged wide.

What the stats from last year do show for Chris is that he was no special member of last year's team. His offensive production was above average with a decent defence, but he came out on the wrong side of chances taken and given (aka CORSI score), just like many of his teammates.

I think it's fair to say that the player we once called an untouchable and a bargain is not the player we traded back in June. And, while he was a great skater, a hard worker and a great penalty killer – the simple fact that his stats show how he let as many chances as anyone in the bottom 5th of the league get to Carey Price on his shifts, shows that his loss as a defensive forward is not one to be sulking over. I expect him to continue his career as a good 2nd line sub/third liner in his new home. I'm comfortable in attempting to upgrade on him.


Robert Lang

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	50	18	21	39	+6	8	3	1.28	2.77	101	17.8	36
07-08 (CHI)	76	21	33	54	+9	7	3	0.90	2.31	172	12.2	50
06-07 (DET)	81	19	33	52	+12	6	4	0.84	2.29	166	11.4	66

Even-strength profile
	Top tier offensive performance at even strength Below average defence at even strength Bottom 20% in terms of preventing chances at even strength Negative CORSI: -2.5

Legend

Like Koivu, Robert Lang is a red-blue type profile. That's to say, all the offense he provides comes while the back door is being left open. A positive balance in goals produced and another negative CORSI balance for Lang.

Replacing Lang at his 2008-09 best would be a difficult task indeed. However, take a look at his historical stats – last year was a bit of a departure for him. 1.28 G/60 and 2.77 Pts/60 were pretty massive jumps. His 17.8% shooting was not sustainable (as history showed).

Therefore, think not of replacing that Lang, but rather the Lang that may have been around this year. A 39-year-old with plenty of sense cunning to offer, but a player whose decline is probably set to continue this year and into the next. Even at his Chicago best, we may not have been too happy about him taking space that could be occupied by a learner like Chichura or Pacioretty, and hurting Plekanec's PP minutes.

Of all the free agents, Lang's release was the least surprising to me. I'm happy we got a good year from him, and I wish him the best in his recovery from injury. But as a unit moving forward, our assets are now better directed elsewhere.


Tom Kostopoulos

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	78	8	14	22	-1	0	0	0.43	1.20	121	6.6	106
07-08 (MTL)	67	7	6	13	-3	0	1	0.56	1.03	98	7.1	113
06-07 (LA)	76	7	15	22	-2	0	0	0.48	1.50	90	7.8	73

Even-strength profile
	Average offensive performance at even strength Average defence at even strength On the ice for a high number of chances at both ends Negative CORSI: -3.6

Legend

If you're like me, you look at Kostopoulos's ES profile here and think how did I get duped? We thought you were good Tom. I believe the fact we saw Tom Kostopoulos as such a bright light speaks not to how good he was, but rather how consistent his play was as those around him fell apart.

To be frank, a team like the Canadiens aspiring to better things is best not resting their laurels on players like Tom. Though he is a good guy and a hard worker, ultimately he is a tough guy that no one is afraid of, a shooter with below average success (7%), and a defensive forward with minus numbers.

If I believed, as Brian Burke does that 6 places on the roster should be reserved for players who can't play hockey going forward, then maybe I'd settle with Tom. But as it is, I don't. I think the fourth line can be a good staging ground for a youngster with the right coaching, and the third line can be as dynamic as you make it. As such, Tom needed to be let go at this time, if only to make some space after so many signings risked clogging the pipeline at the exit from Hamilton.


Mathieu Dandenault

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	41	4	8	12	+7	0	0	0.50	1.49	46	8.7	17
07-08 (MTL)	61	9	5	14	-11	0	0	0.79	1.24	69	13.0	34
06-07 (MTL)	68	2	6	8	-8	0	0	0.11	0.44	54	3.7	40

Even-strength profile
	Above average offense and defence at even strength Good chance creation, balanced with low chances against (among team best) Neutral CORSI: +0.8

Legend

Dandenault is another shocker. And after looking through all these pie charts, you'd be forgiven for thinking we've let a great one go.

The reality is, in many he will be missed. His versatility, for one thing, is something you can't teach. His French is something RDS will be longing for after two weeks of exclusive Max and Gui time. And his defensive play up front isn't replaced by anyone coming in, with a positive CORSI to boot. However, there are a few reasons he had to go as well. Not least among them is his habit of complaining at his ice time.



Turning the page

Statistically speaking, the players Gainey let go here were a solid bunch. Their offensive capabilities in particular will be hard to find from other sources. But by this point in time, I think we have all gathered that what Bob did on July 1 was two-fold:

1) To hollow out the core of a team he thought was rotting from within, and
2) Do his best to replace the skills he lost in the purge

I think his purge was pretty determined and unforgiving. In other circumstances, I'm sure Koivu could have been signed, Tanguay could have been given another chance, Higgins could have been taken more under the wing. But in Gainey's plan, this one time, the clear out had to be as deep as this or risk losing all assets across the organization.

Judging the decisions will be complex, since Koivu won't decline, Tanguay may thrive and Kovalev will probably be inspired by the damage to his pride. But try to remember May 2008 against Philadelphia and April 2009 against Boston when making your full assessment. Try to remember that all was not right – and that even if the diagnosis was not done with care, the intervention was warranted.

I go on next with a much more positive spin to preview the players we do have. First up will be the first line of forwards – that's tomorrow...


Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier

An Ode To Heroes

On the very eve of free agency, some thoughts go to the players who may be leaving and whose skills we will have to replace in order to progress:


Saku Koivu
Lasting memory (Game 6 return vs. Bruins 2008):

"It was a triumphant return for the skipper tonight and all that was really missing was the most important piece of the puzzle - the win. He had 2 assists, was 71% in the face-off circle and was just one of 3 forwards to end with a positive +/-"

Alexei Kovalev
Lasting memory (Show of pride in Game 60 2009 vs. Ottawa):

"Alex's truly magnificent return to the line-up was highlighted by his first 3 point game in over a year. Unlike RDS (who's evidence are stats alone), I wouldn't immediately claim that this was his best game in a year, but I think it was a very strong performance. Aside from the strong offensive play, which also included a few other very dangerous chances, there was also some very strong defensive play. He was our best penalty-killer and played a very responsible 2-way game."

Alex Tanguay
Lasting memory (Game 73, the reunion):

"What a game for Alex! He scored 2 goals and assisted on 3 others for a whopping 5 points. He looked very comfortable playing with Kovalev and Koivu as the 3 players seemed to click right from the start of the game. Tonight's Tanguay was the one we saw in October and, although we have seen glimpses recently, it is great to have him back. What I liked the most about his play was the puck movement and the vision. At heart I believe he is a play-maker who sees the ice like few others, but he obviously has great hands and can score too."

Mike Komisarek

Robert Lang

Francis Bouillon

Mathieu Dandenault

Patrice Brisebois
May the nightmare end. For all of us.

Tom Kostopoulos

No doubt we'll see some of you again. To those that must go, fare well.

Losing The Plot Habs Fans Need Some Perspective

I would have liked to be asking a question in the title for this piece: "Are Habs fans losing the plot?"

Sadly, I think I've seen enough to know they are.

Of course, there's always the argument that the segment of fans I have sampled never really had a grasp of the plot in the first place. Maybe the more salient question is: "When did Habs fans lose the plot?". I digress.

Public opinion

As you'll remember from my earlier rant, RDS conducted an elaborate poll with fantastical salaries to try and see what the lay of the land was for the free agent market with the fans.

In my piece, there were trends. People liked Jay Bouwmeester (who wouldn't) and Beauchemin (not a shock) and omitted Koivu. Well now their full results are in and tallied. The results and the trends have been validated.

33,000 people in all responded to the survey. I was one of them.

The most popular players to sign were Alex Kovalev and Alex Tanguay, with 20,000 selections apiece. To follow them were Jay Bouwmeester and Francois Beauchemin who we are told received a contract offer from about half the GMs.

Up front, people also veered towards the Sedins. RDS reports they were most popular, yet do not give an idea whether they beat Comrie by one vote or four thousand. One can only assume it's somewhere in between the half-way mark and the low-ball 1,400 that Saku Koivu received.

RDS extrapolate that this means:

"...la majorité des directeurs généraux fictifs, Saku Koivu a fait son temps dans l'uniforme bleu-blanc-rouge."

Strange how that worked out for them – to be so in sync with their agenda of attack and detraction for the past 3 or 4 years...

Now I am not saying Canadiens fans have lost the plot solely based on the evidence that many decided (or indeed lost interest in the simple game) to omit Koivu. Indeed, it is a question that must be asked and one whose answer has not been tested.

But how do half the fans think we'll sign both Beauchemin and Bouwmeester (forget for a moment that his rights have been traded)? How do so many fans justify locking up a potential 30 million in 4 defenders (all of them paid a premium, none a bargain) against a cap that will fall? Does anyone at all recall that guy called Markov?

Having 3 good defenders in this league is a luxury. Having 2 great ones is a rarity. To purport that Gainey should go out and stack a team with 5 very good defenders and leave the forwards in a state of limbo is nonsensical. Never mind that polling most of the Beauchemin/Bouwmeester boosters would reveal a severe longing for that Vincent Lecavalier trade as well.

Yes indeed. Many Montreal Canadiens fans have doomed themselves to a summer of disappointment. By thinking that 10 UFAs unsigned would mean no favourites lost with upgrades to all-star at every position, how could they not be?


Getting panicky

That survey may not count for much, and it's probably up for debate what it means, if anything. Beyond dispute, however, is the feeling I get reading and hearing from fellow fans these last couple of days.

There is real panic in the air as supporters realise what their dream of cap flexibility actually means in terms of July 1st and the week around it. People are panicking about the lack of trade. People are panicking about the unsigned. About the signed. About the available UFAs and about the unattainable. If there's something to panic about, Montreal fans are finding a way.

My initial response was to join in with the panic – it's hard not to when you here terms like frenzy every few minutes on the radio and TV. But instead of blindly going down that miserable path, I decided to look for some perspective.

I thought I'd share what I found to hopefully set some minds a t ease a little bit:

1) Gainey isn't the only GM not to have signed his players
If you lived in Montreal, read only Montreal newspapers, listened to Montreal radio and watched RDS, you'd be forgiven for thinking that Bob Gainey stands alone as the delinquent of all NHL GMs having left his UFAs unsigned.

It's hardly the case. Once we look outside the bubble, the view becomes clearer. A mere 21 players have been signed since April this year, not all were even UFAs. All of those signings have been concentrated on 13 teams. 7 of the 21 signings were made yesterday. Before June 29th, we were talking about 14 resignings by 11 GMs, many RFAs or rights-retained players among them.

That means Gainey is in the majority. Most UFAs remain unsigned and most GMs haven't moved. He's no delinquent. Quite the opposite, Larry Pleau is more of a standout for being so active when others wait.


2) July 1 is not a re-signing deadline

Despite how it might seem, July 1 is not a deadline for re-signing with your old team. Of 33 UFA signings last July 1, 8 were re-signings – showing that many a free agent tests the water and decides on home within hours. Add to that those that re-sign days after the floodgates open.

It is certainly true that no team has ever re-signed 10 UFAs of their own in the first week of free agency, but that doesn't make 3 or 4 out of reach.

If you're thinking you'd like Kovalev and Komisarek, take solace in the knowledge that 5 of the first transactions announced last Canada Day were re-signings (obviously offer in hand type decisions). New Jersey resigned 4, including important components Pandolfo and Salvador.

If you're worried about losing Koivu, remember Vyacheslav Kozlov and Sergei Fedorov who were both skilled players in his position that waited out their GMs and re-signed when the dust settled.


3) Decisions aren't made by the push of a button

Being a UFA doesn't mean you are put into a situation where you must accept or turn down offers on the spot. If an offer comes in, there is nothign stopping the player and/or agent from calling the GM (Gainey in this case) and asking for thoughts or a counter-offer.

This may not sound good for overvalued Komisarek. But it might work just fine with Tanguay and Koivu.


4) Rosters are fluid

A player lost, a player signed on July 1. Rosters are not set in stone. Gainey is still able to make trades until February and sign free agents until the spring as well. While some moves will produce roadblocks, others will create opportunity – see Philadelphia and Calgary making massive salary headaches for themselves.


5) The winners of free agency aren't known until June, or April at best

You can here the call-in shows now. Gainey lost big-time. You can hear them, because it's an echo of 2007. But the Canadiens actually won the conference that season to prove that teams on paper ≠ teams on ice.

Last season, Tampa signed the most players and made the most intriguining moves. This past weekend, they drafted second overall. Sometimes the best players aren't the ones the talking heads would have you believe.

Incidentally, Lecavalier on paper is not Lecavalier on ice either – proud owner of two conference bottom finishes in two years.



So you see? There's plenty of reason not to panic. Now, I know ideally we'd have signed all the players we wanted back to discount contracts and traded Halak for Lecavalier by now, but perhaps our ideal was a stretch?

I look on with plenty of interest, and a lot less panic knowing that a) we're not alone, b) we're not in uncharted waters and c) no points are being awarded for Gainey's performance today, tomorrow or even the next day.

Game #71Halak Shows How Wins Are Possible - With Saves

The Canadiens Game in Review

Date: Thursday March 19th, 2009
Opponent: Ottawa Senators
Venue: Scotiabank Place, Kanata, ON

Team Stripes

Score: 4 - 5 Loss

Habs starting goalie: Carey Price, Jaroslav Halak (L)
Opposition starting goalie: Brian Elliott (W)

Habs goalscorers: Guillaume Latendresse (2), Alex Tanguay, Tom Kostopoulos
Opposition goalscorers: Nick Foligno, Jason Spezza (2), Jarkko Ruutu, Daniel Alfredsson

Play of the game
The play you're straining to see on the press catwalk monitor...

Gainey made the play of the game tonight, it was, however, made too late in the game. He had the chance to make it before the game started, he then had chances to make it after our third goal and even after the 1st period, instead he waited till Ottawa scored 4. The play of course was pulling Price and putting in our best goalie, our best chance at a win. Since I have seen this film before I knew that after the second goal Price was done, there was no way we could win with him in nets. The 2 subsequent goals proved that he can be very consistent at certain things.

Game puck
Trophies are for the end of the year, play well in the game, you get a lovely puck...

Guillaume Latendresse
I have an idea - Gui is playing well, let's move him up to a top 2 line. Ha, that not only would be about the third time we had rewarded him this year in a similar way, but it would also likely be the third time he shuts down. Gui does very well on the 3rd line and if that works for him, then it works for me. He played with a lot of energy and heart and scored 2 very important goals. He once again proved how good of a scorer he can be when he gets the puck in the right spot. Put him in the slot, put the puck on his stick and give him a bit of space and I like his chances.


Dome hockey team
We're going into the last minute with these 6 (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...

Forwards

Tom Kostopoulos
I quite liked the way Tom played tonight and to boot he added 3 points. 1 goal and 2 assists led the way for the Habs tonight who were happy to get some serious production from their often quiet players. He may not have had too much to do with any of these goals (a deflection being the highlight), but it was the way he played in the lead up that was encouraging. He is not afraid to fight hard for the puck and what he lacks in skill is often made up for by persistence.

Christopher Higgins
Chris had a few chances tonight, but was once again good at what are becoming his bread and butter: fore-checking and battling. I no longer think of Chris as a scorer, I don't think you do, I don't think the team does, but finally I don't think he does. Since about January he has realized he will likely never be a 40-goal man, so instead he has focused on other areas. Tonight he stood out in those areas and for that I am happy.

Guillaume Latendresse
Gui became our 10th 10-goal scorer which shows just how spread out our scoring has been. It probably explains why coaches (and media and fans) with little patience can't stand watching each player go between 60-70 games without scoring; hence the constant line changes. Gui was our best player tonight, but probably won't be on Saturday and that is really a huge trend with the Habs this season. When we realize that the only thing that matters are wins, and not personal stats, or how many goals our stars get, we may actually get some of them. Keep the players happy, keep them working and get goals from whoever. Tonight Gui played a great game, as did his linemates, but don't be too shocked if we don't see them on the scoresheet for a few.

Defencemen

Andrei Markov
How many pucks did Andrei keep in at the point tonight? He wasn't just keeping plays alive on the PP, but was doing it on a consistent basis at even-strength. It looks like Gainey finally saw what I (and everyone in the world) have been seeing from Komi - horrible play. The solution was Schneider was playing with Markov and Mike played only 16 minutes (his second lowest total of the year). Andrei was only on the ice for 2 goals tonight, both were against, but neither were anywhere near his fault.

Roman Hamrlik
Roman contributed with a big shot (assist) on our 4th goal, a goal that looked like the start of what was going to be a great comeback. The comeback was not to be, but that didn't stop Hammer from finishing the game very strong. He played a solid defensive game which included a solid play on Ruutu's goal - it was shot that should have been stopped. Hamrlik had taken Jarkko to the outside and given him nothing (on most goalies) to shoot at.

Goaltender

Jarsolav Halak
Price was quite bad tonight as he once again let up 4 goals. This time it was 4 on 15 shots; by 22 minutes he had given us a mountain to climb. Jaro came in 1 goal too late, I thought, but still gave us a serious chance to win. He let in 1 goal on 24 shots and made a save on a breakaway. The worst part, however, is that Halak took the official loss tonight, not Carey. Fuel for Carey supporters (Gainey), no doubt, at the end of the year when they compare the two keepers. They should have another column, a 'cost the Habs a game' stat, something to show this wasn't really Halak's loss. The bottom line is this; we are not a good enough team to go anywhere with Carey. He could probably win the cup with Detroit and we have even seen him do very well with good teams in front of him (Canada, Hamilton), but we also saw that he was no miracle worker in Junior (a bad - average team). Our only other option is Halak and we all know he can't do any worse. Can he make the playoffs for us, or better? Who knows, but I will say, for the 100th time, why not let him see how far he can take us?



Eye-Openers
In this new section we are going to try and shed some light on certain plays or events that would otherwise go unnoticed

There was a play in first period that was simple enough, but I think really sums up a lot for the Habs. The puck was sitting on the side of the net, by Price's feet, and he swept it, quickly, into the corner. Markov was right there, about to collect the puck before Carey had basically given it over to Ottawa. The turn-over led to over a minute extra in our zone and another 30-45 seconds after an icing. This play tells me a few things. When players rush things such as simple plays in their own end they are nervous, nervous players cannot win. The fast sweep was the equivalent to a soccer team kicking the ball out of play at all costs when it is in their end - it is desperation defence. It also says that there is very little trust between goaltender and defence and vice versa. This is a sad fact, especially considering the two players concerned were both All-Stars and we are in March. It was a simple play which was amplified into some serious chances against us. This play, unfortunately, was a just a snippet of what is happening in our own end on a much too consistent basis. Trust, Patience and Confidence apply to virtually every facet of life, including sports. And, like in life, you will never succeed in sport until you, and your teammates, posses all 3.

Overall Comments

Sadly I thought that the Habs played one of their best games, if not their absolute best, under Gainey. Whether Carey was derailed thanks to Tuesday's shootout or because of today's 1st couple of goals is neither here nor there as an NHL-starter cannot get hung up on previous mistakes. I felt that the team played quite well in front of their goalies tonight as 4 road goals is no small feat. We once again let up a lot of shots (39), but at least we were able to take 32. Ottawa allowed us to play the style we wanted which was an open, offensive style. Had Jaro been in the whole game I think that this would have been a big win. We were smart about penalties as we were only called for 2 minors, we lived without any unnecessary boxing matches (no fighters were dressed) and were really just interested in trying to score. We are at our best when we can skate fast and when we can get creative in the offensive zone. We are horrible at trying to be defensive and, when we do pull that off, it is our offence that tends to suffer. So, overall this was a positive game, I thought. The best thing that could come out of this is, of course, Halak gets more starts which will hopefully lead to the only thing that matters at all - wins.

More Pseudoscience Optimal Habs Line Combinations From The Evidence

Gainey has changed the lines again – I guess Carbonneau is vindicated.

Oh wait, I thought I was a member of the mainstream media for a minute there. If I had been I would probably be as smitten with Carbo as they were in their coverage of his useless press conference yesterday. They threw him three excuses and he took them (UFAs, injuries and “bad apples”). They then published that he made no excuses – well none of his own anyway…

Gainey, a coach whose opinions on the team are still pertinent, actually had a press conference too. His explanation for line changes was simple enough – injured players coming back. Seems sensible to me. And then, like any good winger, he used a backhander to score a slap on Carbonneau when he said:

“It is important that players know what is expected of them…”

And so it is that we will all be watching lines we have seen before:

Higgins – Koivu – Tanguay
Kostitsyn – Plekanec – Kovalev
Latendresse – Lapierre – Kostopoulos
Spare parts

While I have no trouble with switching lines when things are clearly going as badly as they are up front, I was instinctively frosty as to some of the combinations I saw. As such, I did a little analysis that I have been wanting to do for a long time now. Basically, I looked at even-strength statistics with rate of goals for when a player is on the ice vs. the rate of goals against when the player is on the ice. Simple stuff, with some interesting results.

[Obviously the statistics can only tell us what has happened and not what will happen, but after 70 games, I place more value on what has happened than I would after 20 games. Besides, what else am i going to do for fun?]

After doing this, I can tell you Gainey's on the right track, but not quite there...


Our best forwards

Forwards that come out on top of both offensive and defensive lists are Tomas Plekanec (0.819 GF/20 and 0.720 GA/20), Alex Tanguay (1.272 GF/20 and 0.706 GA/20) and Mathieu Dandenault (0.921 GF/20 and 0.779 GA/20). It is perhaps no surprise that Tanguay and Dandenault rate so highly as they had the pleasure of missing Carey Price’s prolonged vacation. Plekanec, for his part, visibly belongs in this group.

The guys who come out with great offensive numbers and mediocre defensive ones (they are forwards after all) are Andrei Kostitsyn (1.192 GF/20 and 0.954 GA/20), Saku Koivu (1.065 GF/20 and 1.031 GA/20) and Guillaume Latendresse (0.820 GF/20 and 0.781 GA/20).

Then there are those who are stingy against their opponents but have had trouble making things happen themselves, including Sergei Kostitsyn (0.785 GF/20 and 0.678 GA/20), Max Pacioretty (0747 GF/20 and 0.685 GA/20) and, our best defensive player at even-strength, Alexei Kovalev (0.766 GF/20 and 0.696 GA/20)!


Our worst forwards

At the other end of the spectrum come those in the bottom ranks of both offensive and defensive lists, mostly rookies like Chipchura, Stewart and D’Agostini, but also veterans quickly losing their usefulness Christopher Higgins (0.714 GF/20 and 0.952 GA/20) and Tom Kostopoulos (0.680 GF/20 and 0.843 GA/20).


Making lines

If I was making lines, I think I’d concentrate on those guys who’ve had a positive influence in one way or another. Call it chemistry if you want. But chemistry that hasn't borne any results by this point in the season ain't chemistry anymore. In that vein, I’m not sure it’s time to be trying to reawaken Kostopoulos and Higgins for example. I think their times on top lines has come and gone for the time being.

In making the top two lines, I’d go for offence first. Koivu, as the best offence-generating centre is the place to start. To complement him, I would try to find players who make Koivu more productive without making him into even more of an offensive liability than he is on average. Players that enhance Koivu’s play see to be Tanguay (check) as well as Latendresse, Kostitsyn and trusty old Dandenault. I’d keep him away from players who made him worse in both senses, like Higgins, Kostopoulos and D’Agostini at all costs.

The second line, like it or not, is Kovalev’s show. Kostitsyn will be the better player, but he is not emerging to carry this team into the playoffs. Kovalev, with the right conditions, just might. Kovalev is already outstanding defensively, so the concern here should be to get him contributing goals. Players that make Kovalev better offensively this year are Plekanec (check), A Kostitsyn (check), as well as Tanguay, and Lapierre, and unlikely candidates Kostopoulos and D’Agostini.

Lapierre is the focal point of the third line. Players that make him better that aren’t already taken are there. One standout seems to be Christopher Higgins, of all people. One that does not (counter to the wishes of a Province) is Guillaume Latendresse. Kostopoulos makes Lapierre better, but as we noted he like Higgins is a massive liability himself. Pacioretty, on the other hand enhances Lapierre’s defensive stats, without costing him too much offensively.

Latendresse makes Koivu better but Kovalev worse, so Latendresse earns the big promotion to line 1a. Andrei Kostitsyn's production will suffer on line 1b, but it's not time to worry about having a 30 goalscorer on this team anymore. He enhances Kovalev's play (probably by drawing attention), so he sticks on the one line we should all have faith in. So switch Latendresse and Higgins – priority number one. Do it now.

From there, Higgins and Lapierre seem like a nice fit, and I'd fill their wing with someone who isn't a total liability coming back (ineffective Kostopoulos) – someone defensively aware (and energetic) like Max Pacioretty.


There you have it. The fourth line is filled with the rest. Dandenault looks like an excellent choice. D'Agostini and Stewart are both becoming disaster cases so choose one, stir in Kostopoulos until someone sees sense and promotes one of the best defensive forwards of the season (Sergei Kostitsyn).

Game #68Habs Lucky to Secure a Single Point From a Very Disorganized Effort

The Canadiens Game in Review

Date: Thursday March 12th, 2009
Opponent: New York Islanders
Venue: Bell Centre, Montreal, QC

Team Stripes

Final Score: 2-3 - Loss (OT)

Habs starting goalie: Carey Price (L)
Opposition starting goalie: Yann Danis (W)

Habs goalscorers: Tomas Plekanec, Tom Kostopoulos
Opposition goalscorers: Mike Iggulden, Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo

Play of the game
The play you're straining to see on the press catwalk monitor...

After we were snake-bitten on a 2-minute 5-on-3 we capitalized on a very weak Islander line change. Reading the play perfectly were the ever-smart pairing of Schneider and Markov. It was Mathieu that made the pass to a streaking Markov who had found the left side of the Bell Centre void of any New York players. With a full head of steam Markov went in and luckily he had back-up. On the right side, and fresh off the bench, was Kostopoulos. It was a 2-on-1 that turned out to be very timely as we really needed a goal. The pass was great and Tom made no mistake putting the puck to the back of the net.

Game puck
Trophies are for the end of the year, play well in the game, you get a lovely puck...

Carey Price
It would have been nice to get this type of effort from Carey two weeks ago when the offence needed his help, but I am just happy that the kid seems to be back. Price pretty much stole us a point tonight as New York took 39 shots on goal and looked very threatening. He stood on his head towards the end of the game with a few great saves and best of all, a few of those were glove saves. He seemed confident tonight and it was the main reason this game wasn't a complete write off.



Dome hockey team
We're going into the last minute with these 6 (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...

Forwards

Saku Koivu
Saku was the best player on our best line tonight by a lot. In fact, his wingers played average games at best. Koivu was right in the middle of the action pretty much all game. A few of our best chances were generated by him and he had a couple of very nice plays to keep/get the puck in(to) the offensive zone.

Tomas Plekanec
Plekanec scored 2 goals in the first period, but only one counted. The disallowed goal, I thought, would have counted if the original call had been 'goal'. I thought his stick was right around the height of the bar and it was hard to prove one way or the other. His goal came soon after that incident and it was a very well-placed shot. That gives him 19 on the year - something we all thought near impossible just a month or two ago. He looked a bit lost out there without Kovalev as this game was a cruel reminder of what having Kovy on your team can do. Plekanec's line was good, but it was no longer the constant threat which we normally expect.

Maxim Lapierre
It was good to see Max playing well again as we haven't heard much from him in a while. His best play came when he drew a penalty and then kept the play alive long enough to draw another one. It put us on a 2-minute 5-on-3 which could have ended the game in our favour. Max responded well to his increased playing time tonight (18 minutes) with strong defensive play and a very good 12-4 face-off record.

Defencemen

Andrei Markov
Andrei led the attack tonight whether it was on the PP or at even-strength. He, however, also seemed a bit lost out there without Kovalev as he had to re-evaluate where to pass the puck on the PP. His assist, after a 2+ minute shift, was a perfect example of how good of a player he is and of how your best players can certainly take advantage of the opposition's weaknesses even at the expense of dumping it in and heading off. My only complaint tonight was that he wasn't used enough.

Mathieu Schneider
Mat led the team in shots with 4 and they were all decent efforts. We all talk so much about his work on the PP and his offensive play that we sometimes forget how good he can be in his own end. There was one play that stood out for me towards the end of the game where he dove to Price's left and stopped what would have been a certain wrap-around goal. His positioning in his own end was very strong tonight which was noticeable as that was a huge team-wide deficiency.

Goaltender

Carey Price
On the one hand Carey let in a weak goal that may have cost us the win, but on the other he was the only reason we made it to OT in the first place. So while I am disappointed in that one play in the extra frame I am quite pleased overall. He did a good job at finding pucks tonight and didn't give off too many rebounds. He was able to catch a lot of pucks to force the whistle which is something he had been having trouble with. This level of play should be enough to get us into the playoffs, now he just needs the other 18 guys to get going.



Eye-Openers
In this new section we are going to try and shed some light on certain plays or events that would otherwise go unnoticed

This wasn't the next step that I had hoped we would take after what I felt was an inspired victory just two nights ago. The Islanders on the road are a dismal team, a team littered with AHL-calibre (at best) players; this one should have been a lot different. In fact, it was this type of performance/result that cost Carbo his job. Does that mean Gainey is the next to go? Well, let's not be ridiculous. In the time since Carbo has left we have had 2 game-day skates, which aren't anything near proper practices and usually last a laughable 20-30 minutes, and one optional practice. Add that to the fact that our best player wasn't in the line-up and you can start to see that this was Carbo's team minus his most lethal weapon. Bob has a lot of work to do and has some simple, yet great, ideas. He can't, however, implement those overnight as it will take time (or at least a real practice). It would have been nice to see a more solid performance, but I am not too surprised with what we saw. This has been the way we have been playing for weeks now and I wasn't naive enough to think that it would all suddenly change. Playing like that will occasionally be enough for 2 points (when we are lucky), but tonight I think we were almost as lucky to get one. I think the root of our problems almost certainly come from our defensive play, but we are also having trouble being consistent up front. When I say up front I don't just mean scoring, I mean passing, being patient and winning battles. There are tons of little things that are all adding up right now to make the mess that we see on a near-gamely basis, but with time I think Bob and Lever can address these one at a time.

Overall Comments

First the good news: New York isn't in this race with us and we gained a point on all those teams that lost tonight. The bad news is that this was one of our 'winnable' games. We brag about how good our schedule is down the stretch and how easy our opponents are, but if we are going to talk like that it would be nice to kill teams like this. The Habs started the game, as they have been doing of late, quite well. We essentially scored 2 within the first five minutes. Then came the penalties, then it was the belief that 1-1 wasn't a dire enough situation to play desperately and then, wouldn't you know it we were down. Our comeback-juice luckily kicked in again tonight as we were able to score that crucial second goal. Then, with 10 minutes left, we played for OT. The problem was the Islanders weren't doing the same. They were all over us and almost scored on a few occasions. We looked quite disorganized and unaware for the last 55 minutes of this game, but it was particularly evident after we tied it up. The only reason we are even the slightest bit satisfied tonight is because of that stupid (and out-dated) OT-Loss rule, but I am hoping the players are treating this like what it actually is: a loss. Saturday is another big game, this time against Brodeur and the Devils. Who knows, maybe the cohesion and effort will be there, maybe our Achilles heel is a weak opposition and that is all that tonight was. The Devils, unlike New York, represent the type of team we'll have to beat in the playoffs so I would like to see us take 2 points from them as heaven knows we can't rely on them coming from games against the Isles, Tampa, Toronto or Atlanta.

UFA DumpAs Hit And Miss As Any Other Trade

Unrestricted free agency as we know it today was born out of the 1994-95 Owner's Lockout. Prior to that point, the stipulation as to ages for free agency weren't as clear as they are today.

The idea of restricted and unrestricted free agents has since played a major role in days like today for over a decade. Pundits love free agency because it gives them a good clue as to some of the players that might be moved at the deadline. Players love it as it gives them leverage to make salary demands.

I don't think the GMs like it though. I wouldn't if I was a GM. The UFA environment on trade deadline day can be a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario for GMs. Any number of supporters will line up behind the idea of keeping a star. Another segment is drawn to the idea that if there is something to be had, it is better than 20 games and gone for the given player.

The Canadiens and their unrestricted free agents

GMs of the Montreal Canadiens are no strangers to this dilemma. Last season Gainey was both praised and reviled for dealing Cristobal Huet for a second round draft pick. The year before, it was the same when he held onto Sheldon Souray.

In all the Canadiens have 9 times dealt an unrestricted free agent after the turn of the new year, lest they be lost for nothing. Rather predictably, only one of the trades in this category can be qualified as outright wins:

1) Craig Rivet and a 5th round pick for Josh Gorges and a 1st round pick (now Max Pacioretty)


In retrospect, several are losers, considering the player sent the other way:

1) Eric Weinrich for Patrick Traverse
2) Mark Recchi for Dainius Zubrus and a 2nd, 4th and 6th round pick
3) Vincent Damphousse for a 1st, 2nd and 5th round pick


If you're not getting a player...

If you're not getting a player for a star UFA, chances are we will be here in 5 years writing about a bad trade. It's just odds. If you get a player, you can still lose (Traverse). But if you trust your scouts, a player is a better bet. A pro player has already shown what he can do against other pros – there are far fewer unknown quantities. I would suggest the Rivet trade as proof of what good pro scouting can do.

The Mark Recchi and Vincent Damphousse trades illustrate the problem with thinking that a lot of draft picks are value for a star player. The chances of getting another player like Recchi or Damphousse in the draft is not worth the gamble (even in the first round). When you consider that Mark Recchi has played 9 seasons since that trade, won a Cup, had 7 20+ goal seasons and even a 91-point campaign; you'd be lucky to select a player at number one and replicate that.

In general, first round picks can be reliable. Beyond that is a crap shoot. Getting 3 extra picks allows for more long-shot picks on draft day – but as these trades showed, those kinds of picks are called that for a reason.


Holding vs. trading

I hate the cliche "Trade him, or we'll lose him for nothing." First of all, it's not true – you have the player for 20 more games, plus playoffs if you are there. Secondly, if you're team is never able to attract or retain players once they get to a certain level – then you are in bigger trouble than you know. The Montreal Canadiens for all their griping about losing money, have never been a poor brother in the NHL, though they acted like one in 1999.

The value of holding the player must be weighed fully against the value of trading. That player for 20+ games vs. the package coming back. In the Rivet trade, the package was very good – a functional NHL defenceman and a first round pick that year. It turned into a bigger win later as Gorges showed he fits in better than Rivet did at the end. Presumably the package offered for Souray that very same year was not as good, so Gainey weighed and opted for 20 games with his PP point man.

No playoffs

If there is no chance of the playoffs, as was the case in 7 of the 9 trades (1999, 2001, 2003), then the weight of the player being around for 20 games takes a lot less meaning, of course. Those 20 games would be either for the pleasure of the fans, the hope of re-signing or some kind of good will to the player. These scenarios certainly make it more forgivable to talk about losing for nothing, and for making a trade for anything, anything at all.

Playoffs

If the team is firmly in the race for the playoffs, as was the case at the deadline the past two seasons. These assessments change quite dramatically. In these cases, trading a major star ahead of the "real season" indicates a GM is wavering in earlier plans.

Consider that in the playoffs, there is an expanded roster size and more roster flexibility; and all salaries are already paid to boot. Keeping a major piece (someone that the GM (at least, previously) thought was a major cog in the machine makes much more sense. 20 games + playoffs certainly isn't nothing. Considering the playoffs are the first time of year a team gets to play for a trophy (well, one that anyone cares about) – it seems to me that keeping once valuable pieces just in case has value in itself.


Current Canadiens UFAs

On that note, I look to players others are floating as possible trade bait from the Canadiens as possible trade bait – simply based on contract status:

1) Saku Koivu
I wouldn't trade a guy who rescued the team while nursing a broken foot

Offer to change my mind: None.


2) Alexei Kovalev
Trading Kovalev during his least productive season is asking for egg in the face

Offer to change my mind: Winger who can score, as well as carry the puck.


3) Alex Tanguay
Gainey acquired Alex Tanguay for good reason (did he not?). Trading him now would raise serious questions about our GM's one-year plan (let alone 5+ year plan)

Offer to change my mind: Jere Lehtinen.


4) Robert Lang
Injury rather settled this issue


5) Tom Kostopoulos
He's one of those value for money kind of guys. I think he's easily signable.

Offer to change my mind: Only an upgrade – no sideways maneuvering.


6) Francis Bouillon
Has more value to this franchise as an interview target than any 6th round pick could return. I also think he can be re-signed and I'd encourage that.

Offer to change my mind: Only an upgrade – no sideways maneuvering.


7) Mathieu Dandenault
Wants to be traded. Want to trade him. Would be hard to low-ball me here.

Offer to deal him: Someone who can skate.


8) Mike Komisarek
The most interesting possibility. Everyone needs a defenceman. Everyone reads stats. Komisarek could return value. But as a rental?

Offer to change my mind: A young defender who knows his trade – it would take a Rivet:Gorges type revelation. Not impossible.


9) Mathieu Schneider
I don't think Gainey would turn two trades only to upgrade his draft picks – seems like a lot of work...

Offer to change my mind: None.


10) Patrice Brisebois
Get real

Offer to deal him: It's been so painful to get to 1,000, I want it to end right. End is the operative word.


As you can see, I wouldn't be an exciting GM either. Unlike Waddell who is, I care about winning a few games. I'm glad Gainey seems to be of like mind. Frankly, with all the prospects we have (a few who are sure to be logjammed or busts), I don't see the need to take a loss on a UFA at this point. Plenty of trade bait lying around as it is.