I have a big important meeting today at work, so have been preparing (through distraction) and must buckle down - less blogging for 24 hours.
So, all I can offer are my quick thoughts.
Additions
Gomez: Good, a new Koivu
Cammalleri: Very good, best scorer we've had since Recchi
Gionta: Not so good, not an upgrade for me
Spacek: Very good, Schneider abilities with some D, hopefully
Gill: Very bad, don't see this one
Salary: Worrying
5-year contracts: A long experiment
Subtractions:
Koivu: Very very sad, would have found a way to keep him
Kovalev: Disappointng, but not playing with Koivu was always a question mark
Tanguay: Thought it could work, he was never more than secondary
Kostopoulos: Good, his usefulness was waning and fast
Lang: Good, we've improved in replacing him
Komisarek: Neutral, glad we didn't pay him so much for as long as TO did
Bouillon: Neutral
Dandenault: Good
Brisebois?: Very good, but my stomach tells me he's not gone yet
Overall it's sad to see the old team gutted and gone. There's some hop in the new additions, particularly Cammalleri and Gomez. But adding Gill and Gionta seems out of step to me. Maybe I'll have to watch them again...
Showing posts with label July 1. Show all posts
Showing posts with label July 1. Show all posts
Thursday, July 02, 2009
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Tomorrow Never Knows
Into The Free Agency Void
Turn off your mind, relax and float down stream.
It is not dying, it is not dying.
Lay down all thought, surrender to the void
It is shining, it is shining.
Free agency tomorrow. Surrender to the void Habs fans.
Free agent preview
The previews for tomorrow's festivities must surely number in the thousands by now. I don't want to re-invent the wheel, so I'll make it simple. For me the most concise and useful previews were the following:
USA Today – Most popular: 25 free agents who'll draw plenty of interest
THN: The NHL's all-overlooked free agent team
Of the two, I'd most recommend the second because it eschews the more obvious diatribe about Bouwmeester, the Sedins and Gaborik – who in our hearts of hearts we all know we won't sign tomorrow anyway. Besides, the bargains in this free agency mess don't come from the top ten – where thanks to Philadelphia and New York, one always overpays.
Forwards
Unfortunately, we may be in a bit of a pickle. Even with Koivu, Kovalev and Tanguay we needed a top forward to add a second wave. If we lose all those three, we need four.
While I'm not a fan of overpayment on every player, it seems to get a star forward (with the trade route barred to us), one must. Of the top players, I'd take Koivu and Kovalev back and stick with the trade option until we find a way to pry away that premier goalscorer we need. If Tanguay finds his real value is a pay cut, I'd welcome him back too.
If it's to be done tomorrow, I'd want Gainey to be in on conversations about Hossa and Havlat with a possible look at Mikael Samuelsson. The Sedins have a lot of allure, but a package deal? How old are you guys?
In addition, to replace Kostopoulos with a more skillful option, I'd take THN's advice and look into Joel Ward:
Defence
Unlike Gainey, I'd let Komisarek go without any fight. I can't for the life of me decide why he thinks differently, but then we share different opinions of what makes a thoroughbred, after all. While everyone's worrying about Jay Bouwmeester and Big Mike, I'd be swoping for some #3/4 guys to really get a solid squad at the back.
Someone I've been hot on for ages now is Johnny Oduya of the Devils. On him, THN says it nicely:
In keeping with the THN advice, I also thought someone just like Christian Backman would be a very nice addition and Brisebois-signing barrier. As they say:
Goalies
The fact is we need one for Hamilton. It could be Marc Denis, but I'd want a promise of no games in Mtl. Here I'd really veer towards the young and someone who might not mind sitting behind two or three better prospects. This isn't a July 1 priority and may come via trade as well...
A mentor for Carey Price? How about a blanket? The guy is coddled. He doesn't need his own mentor to take up salary and dispatch Halak. He'll have his own coach and he'll have to make do.
So, sit back, relax and enjoy the fun. And remember tomorrow never never knows. The team you think is a bottom-feeder tomorrow may be a contender come April.
... play the game, existence to the end.
Of the beginning, of the beginning...
It is not dying, it is not dying.
Lay down all thought, surrender to the void
It is shining, it is shining.
Free agency tomorrow. Surrender to the void Habs fans.
Free agent preview
The previews for tomorrow's festivities must surely number in the thousands by now. I don't want to re-invent the wheel, so I'll make it simple. For me the most concise and useful previews were the following:
USA Today – Most popular: 25 free agents who'll draw plenty of interest
THN: The NHL's all-overlooked free agent team
Of the two, I'd most recommend the second because it eschews the more obvious diatribe about Bouwmeester, the Sedins and Gaborik – who in our hearts of hearts we all know we won't sign tomorrow anyway. Besides, the bargains in this free agency mess don't come from the top ten – where thanks to Philadelphia and New York, one always overpays.
Forwards
Unfortunately, we may be in a bit of a pickle. Even with Koivu, Kovalev and Tanguay we needed a top forward to add a second wave. If we lose all those three, we need four.
While I'm not a fan of overpayment on every player, it seems to get a star forward (with the trade route barred to us), one must. Of the top players, I'd take Koivu and Kovalev back and stick with the trade option until we find a way to pry away that premier goalscorer we need. If Tanguay finds his real value is a pay cut, I'd welcome him back too.
If it's to be done tomorrow, I'd want Gainey to be in on conversations about Hossa and Havlat with a possible look at Mikael Samuelsson. The Sedins have a lot of allure, but a package deal? How old are you guys?
In addition, to replace Kostopoulos with a more skillful option, I'd take THN's advice and look into Joel Ward:
"At 28, Ward was too old to be rookie-eligible last season (he played 11 NHL games in 2007-08). But he scored 17 goals while cast in a defensive role for the Predators, including a couple shorthanded markers. This guy can fly, adding wings to any team's forecheck."
Defence
Unlike Gainey, I'd let Komisarek go without any fight. I can't for the life of me decide why he thinks differently, but then we share different opinions of what makes a thoroughbred, after all. While everyone's worrying about Jay Bouwmeester and Big Mike, I'd be swoping for some #3/4 guys to really get a solid squad at the back.
Someone I've been hot on for ages now is Johnny Oduya of the Devils. On him, THN says it nicely:
"Do you want Johnny Oduya? Yes, you do, if you're a fan of two-way defensemen at a bargain-basement price."
In keeping with the THN advice, I also thought someone just like Christian Backman would be a very nice addition and Brisebois-signing barrier. As they say:
"Quietly efficient and ever improving, Backman is the kind of support player that every blueline needs."
Goalies
The fact is we need one for Hamilton. It could be Marc Denis, but I'd want a promise of no games in Mtl. Here I'd really veer towards the young and someone who might not mind sitting behind two or three better prospects. This isn't a July 1 priority and may come via trade as well...
A mentor for Carey Price? How about a blanket? The guy is coddled. He doesn't need his own mentor to take up salary and dispatch Halak. He'll have his own coach and he'll have to make do.
So, sit back, relax and enjoy the fun. And remember tomorrow never never knows. The team you think is a bottom-feeder tomorrow may be a contender come April.
... play the game, existence to the end.
Of the beginning, of the beginning...
Losing The Plot
Habs Fans Need Some Perspective
I would have liked to be asking a question in the title for this piece: "Are Habs fans losing the plot?"
Sadly, I think I've seen enough to know they are.
Of course, there's always the argument that the segment of fans I have sampled never really had a grasp of the plot in the first place. Maybe the more salient question is: "When did Habs fans lose the plot?". I digress.
Public opinion
As you'll remember from my earlier rant, RDS conducted an elaborate poll with fantastical salaries to try and see what the lay of the land was for the free agent market with the fans.
In my piece, there were trends. People liked Jay Bouwmeester (who wouldn't) and Beauchemin (not a shock) and omitted Koivu. Well now their full results are in and tallied. The results and the trends have been validated.
33,000 people in all responded to the survey. I was one of them.
The most popular players to sign were Alex Kovalev and Alex Tanguay, with 20,000 selections apiece. To follow them were Jay Bouwmeester and Francois Beauchemin who we are told received a contract offer from about half the GMs.
Up front, people also veered towards the Sedins. RDS reports they were most popular, yet do not give an idea whether they beat Comrie by one vote or four thousand. One can only assume it's somewhere in between the half-way mark and the low-ball 1,400 that Saku Koivu received.
RDS extrapolate that this means:
Strange how that worked out for them – to be so in sync with their agenda of attack and detraction for the past 3 or 4 years...
Now I am not saying Canadiens fans have lost the plot solely based on the evidence that many decided (or indeed lost interest in the simple game) to omit Koivu. Indeed, it is a question that must be asked and one whose answer has not been tested.
But how do half the fans think we'll sign both Beauchemin and Bouwmeester (forget for a moment that his rights have been traded)? How do so many fans justify locking up a potential 30 million in 4 defenders (all of them paid a premium, none a bargain) against a cap that will fall? Does anyone at all recall that guy called Markov?
Having 3 good defenders in this league is a luxury. Having 2 great ones is a rarity. To purport that Gainey should go out and stack a team with 5 very good defenders and leave the forwards in a state of limbo is nonsensical. Never mind that polling most of the Beauchemin/Bouwmeester boosters would reveal a severe longing for that Vincent Lecavalier trade as well.
Yes indeed. Many Montreal Canadiens fans have doomed themselves to a summer of disappointment. By thinking that 10 UFAs unsigned would mean no favourites lost with upgrades to all-star at every position, how could they not be?
Getting panicky
That survey may not count for much, and it's probably up for debate what it means, if anything. Beyond dispute, however, is the feeling I get reading and hearing from fellow fans these last couple of days.
There is real panic in the air as supporters realise what their dream of cap flexibility actually means in terms of July 1st and the week around it. People are panicking about the lack of trade. People are panicking about the unsigned. About the signed. About the available UFAs and about the unattainable. If there's something to panic about, Montreal fans are finding a way.
My initial response was to join in with the panic – it's hard not to when you here terms like frenzy every few minutes on the radio and TV. But instead of blindly going down that miserable path, I decided to look for some perspective.
I thought I'd share what I found to hopefully set some minds a t ease a little bit:
1) Gainey isn't the only GM not to have signed his players
If you lived in Montreal, read only Montreal newspapers, listened to Montreal radio and watched RDS, you'd be forgiven for thinking that Bob Gainey stands alone as the delinquent of all NHL GMs having left his UFAs unsigned.
It's hardly the case. Once we look outside the bubble, the view becomes clearer. A mere 21 players have been signed since April this year, not all were even UFAs. All of those signings have been concentrated on 13 teams. 7 of the 21 signings were made yesterday. Before June 29th, we were talking about 14 resignings by 11 GMs, many RFAs or rights-retained players among them.
That means Gainey is in the majority. Most UFAs remain unsigned and most GMs haven't moved. He's no delinquent. Quite the opposite, Larry Pleau is more of a standout for being so active when others wait.
2) July 1 is not a re-signing deadline
Despite how it might seem, July 1 is not a deadline for re-signing with your old team. Of 33 UFA signings last July 1, 8 were re-signings – showing that many a free agent tests the water and decides on home within hours. Add to that those that re-sign days after the floodgates open.
It is certainly true that no team has ever re-signed 10 UFAs of their own in the first week of free agency, but that doesn't make 3 or 4 out of reach.
If you're thinking you'd like Kovalev and Komisarek, take solace in the knowledge that 5 of the first transactions announced last Canada Day were re-signings (obviously offer in hand type decisions). New Jersey resigned 4, including important components Pandolfo and Salvador.
If you're worried about losing Koivu, remember Vyacheslav Kozlov and Sergei Fedorov who were both skilled players in his position that waited out their GMs and re-signed when the dust settled.
3) Decisions aren't made by the push of a button
Being a UFA doesn't mean you are put into a situation where you must accept or turn down offers on the spot. If an offer comes in, there is nothign stopping the player and/or agent from calling the GM (Gainey in this case) and asking for thoughts or a counter-offer.
This may not sound good for overvalued Komisarek. But it might work just fine with Tanguay and Koivu.
4) Rosters are fluid
A player lost, a player signed on July 1. Rosters are not set in stone. Gainey is still able to make trades until February and sign free agents until the spring as well. While some moves will produce roadblocks, others will create opportunity – see Philadelphia and Calgary making massive salary headaches for themselves.
5) The winners of free agency aren't known until June, or April at best
You can here the call-in shows now. Gainey lost big-time. You can hear them, because it's an echo of 2007. But the Canadiens actually won the conference that season to prove that teams on paper ≠ teams on ice.
Last season, Tampa signed the most players and made the most intriguining moves. This past weekend, they drafted second overall. Sometimes the best players aren't the ones the talking heads would have you believe.
Incidentally, Lecavalier on paper is not Lecavalier on ice either – proud owner of two conference bottom finishes in two years.
So you see? There's plenty of reason not to panic. Now, I know ideally we'd have signed all the players we wanted back to discount contracts and traded Halak for Lecavalier by now, but perhaps our ideal was a stretch?
I look on with plenty of interest, and a lot less panic knowing that a) we're not alone, b) we're not in uncharted waters and c) no points are being awarded for Gainey's performance today, tomorrow or even the next day.
Sadly, I think I've seen enough to know they are.
Of course, there's always the argument that the segment of fans I have sampled never really had a grasp of the plot in the first place. Maybe the more salient question is: "When did Habs fans lose the plot?". I digress.
Public opinion
As you'll remember from my earlier rant, RDS conducted an elaborate poll with fantastical salaries to try and see what the lay of the land was for the free agent market with the fans.
In my piece, there were trends. People liked Jay Bouwmeester (who wouldn't) and Beauchemin (not a shock) and omitted Koivu. Well now their full results are in and tallied. The results and the trends have been validated.
33,000 people in all responded to the survey. I was one of them.
The most popular players to sign were Alex Kovalev and Alex Tanguay, with 20,000 selections apiece. To follow them were Jay Bouwmeester and Francois Beauchemin who we are told received a contract offer from about half the GMs.
Up front, people also veered towards the Sedins. RDS reports they were most popular, yet do not give an idea whether they beat Comrie by one vote or four thousand. One can only assume it's somewhere in between the half-way mark and the low-ball 1,400 that Saku Koivu received.
RDS extrapolate that this means:
"...la majorité des directeurs généraux fictifs, Saku Koivu a fait son temps dans l'uniforme bleu-blanc-rouge."
Strange how that worked out for them – to be so in sync with their agenda of attack and detraction for the past 3 or 4 years...
Now I am not saying Canadiens fans have lost the plot solely based on the evidence that many decided (or indeed lost interest in the simple game) to omit Koivu. Indeed, it is a question that must be asked and one whose answer has not been tested.
But how do half the fans think we'll sign both Beauchemin and Bouwmeester (forget for a moment that his rights have been traded)? How do so many fans justify locking up a potential 30 million in 4 defenders (all of them paid a premium, none a bargain) against a cap that will fall? Does anyone at all recall that guy called Markov?
Having 3 good defenders in this league is a luxury. Having 2 great ones is a rarity. To purport that Gainey should go out and stack a team with 5 very good defenders and leave the forwards in a state of limbo is nonsensical. Never mind that polling most of the Beauchemin/Bouwmeester boosters would reveal a severe longing for that Vincent Lecavalier trade as well.
Yes indeed. Many Montreal Canadiens fans have doomed themselves to a summer of disappointment. By thinking that 10 UFAs unsigned would mean no favourites lost with upgrades to all-star at every position, how could they not be?
Getting panicky
That survey may not count for much, and it's probably up for debate what it means, if anything. Beyond dispute, however, is the feeling I get reading and hearing from fellow fans these last couple of days.
There is real panic in the air as supporters realise what their dream of cap flexibility actually means in terms of July 1st and the week around it. People are panicking about the lack of trade. People are panicking about the unsigned. About the signed. About the available UFAs and about the unattainable. If there's something to panic about, Montreal fans are finding a way.
My initial response was to join in with the panic – it's hard not to when you here terms like frenzy every few minutes on the radio and TV. But instead of blindly going down that miserable path, I decided to look for some perspective.
I thought I'd share what I found to hopefully set some minds a t ease a little bit:
1) Gainey isn't the only GM not to have signed his players
If you lived in Montreal, read only Montreal newspapers, listened to Montreal radio and watched RDS, you'd be forgiven for thinking that Bob Gainey stands alone as the delinquent of all NHL GMs having left his UFAs unsigned.
It's hardly the case. Once we look outside the bubble, the view becomes clearer. A mere 21 players have been signed since April this year, not all were even UFAs. All of those signings have been concentrated on 13 teams. 7 of the 21 signings were made yesterday. Before June 29th, we were talking about 14 resignings by 11 GMs, many RFAs or rights-retained players among them.
That means Gainey is in the majority. Most UFAs remain unsigned and most GMs haven't moved. He's no delinquent. Quite the opposite, Larry Pleau is more of a standout for being so active when others wait.
2) July 1 is not a re-signing deadline
Despite how it might seem, July 1 is not a deadline for re-signing with your old team. Of 33 UFA signings last July 1, 8 were re-signings – showing that many a free agent tests the water and decides on home within hours. Add to that those that re-sign days after the floodgates open.
It is certainly true that no team has ever re-signed 10 UFAs of their own in the first week of free agency, but that doesn't make 3 or 4 out of reach.
If you're thinking you'd like Kovalev and Komisarek, take solace in the knowledge that 5 of the first transactions announced last Canada Day were re-signings (obviously offer in hand type decisions). New Jersey resigned 4, including important components Pandolfo and Salvador.
If you're worried about losing Koivu, remember Vyacheslav Kozlov and Sergei Fedorov who were both skilled players in his position that waited out their GMs and re-signed when the dust settled.
3) Decisions aren't made by the push of a button
Being a UFA doesn't mean you are put into a situation where you must accept or turn down offers on the spot. If an offer comes in, there is nothign stopping the player and/or agent from calling the GM (Gainey in this case) and asking for thoughts or a counter-offer.
This may not sound good for overvalued Komisarek. But it might work just fine with Tanguay and Koivu.
4) Rosters are fluid
A player lost, a player signed on July 1. Rosters are not set in stone. Gainey is still able to make trades until February and sign free agents until the spring as well. While some moves will produce roadblocks, others will create opportunity – see Philadelphia and Calgary making massive salary headaches for themselves.
5) The winners of free agency aren't known until June, or April at best
You can here the call-in shows now. Gainey lost big-time. You can hear them, because it's an echo of 2007. But the Canadiens actually won the conference that season to prove that teams on paper ≠ teams on ice.
Last season, Tampa signed the most players and made the most intriguining moves. This past weekend, they drafted second overall. Sometimes the best players aren't the ones the talking heads would have you believe.
Incidentally, Lecavalier on paper is not Lecavalier on ice either – proud owner of two conference bottom finishes in two years.
So you see? There's plenty of reason not to panic. Now, I know ideally we'd have signed all the players we wanted back to discount contracts and traded Halak for Lecavalier by now, but perhaps our ideal was a stretch?
I look on with plenty of interest, and a lot less panic knowing that a) we're not alone, b) we're not in uncharted waters and c) no points are being awarded for Gainey's performance today, tomorrow or even the next day.
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Needs And Wants
In the build-up to the ever-disappointing watershed that is 12:00 noon on July 1st in NHL circles, I have been reading more and more rumours. More and more speculation.
Not wishing to be the one blogger to shy away from putting forth my lopsided opinion, I wanted to weigh in on the issues of Canadiens needs.
A commonly held notion is that the Canadiens will lose Brisebois, Streit, Smolinski and Ryder and therefore need to find replacements for all of these players (JT said as much in his article on the topic a couple of days ago). While this notion is not altogether wrong – obviously someone will have to play those empty positions – replacing them with outsiders may be an unnecessary leap, at least in my humble opinion.
Brisebois – signed (for some reason) as a 5th-6th defenceman, he gradually slipped to 8th on the depth chart over the season. His place as 4th Dman was due to Carbonneau's folly and had little to do with merit. Replacing him is a matter of calling Hamilton. Any number of rookies could fit at number 8 for us.
Streit – a unique commodity, it would be nice to replace him, but also virtually impossible. If we need to replace him as a forward (I don't think we do) then it is a 4th liner now that we carry Tanguay. No need to get excited about signing a 4th liner today. If we replace him as a defenceman, then we could be stuck. Anyone who will offer as much offense (Campbell) will be far too costly, anyone who fits into the 2nd pairing as the 5th best D will be challenged to get even half those totals. Ron Hainsey is the only real match here, and signing him would beg the question: "Why didn't Gainey just sign Streit?" If he is to be replaced on the PP, finding the right free agent here is difficult. You might think Sergei Fedorov or Brian Rolston, but neither is an out and out Streit replacement. My thinking is basically that Streit cannot be directly replaced, so Gainey should not trouble himself trying to fit a round peg into a Streit-shaped hole.
Smolinski – call him insurance or veteran presence or whatever, but he was hardly a third line centre. I don't think Bryan Smolinski would need to be directly replaced at all. I think Lapierre has earned his stripes and Chipchura will have learned what it takes to stick this time around.
Ryder – if we accept he had a bad season and played little part in getting the Habs to top in the East, and remember that he didn't even set foot on the ice when we were getting outscored by Philly, then a case could be made that Michael Ryder doesn't need to be replaced. I, however, would beg to differ. I think Michael Ryder (at least the one from rookie to year 3) is the player we most need to replace. A scorer with scoring on his mind.
Needs/wants
I hear it bandied about every few minutes (or seconds these days): What Montreal really needs is a number one centre.
I think there needs to be some clarification here. Montreal does not need a number one centre in the way that Columbus, Vancouver or Atlanta do. With a bit of analysis, in fact, there could be 10 or more teams in the NHL that would be glad to have either Koivu or Plekanec as their number one pivot.
No, Montreal would really really like a "number one/two/three" centre who's bigger than Koivu – that's all.
While signing Sundin would unquestionably be an improvement for the team, it would be silly to break up Kostitsyn and Plekanec, for example, just to make him the de facto number one. Would Sundin still be the number one with Latendresse and Sergei? Would it matter?
Furthermore, how much evidence do we need that Koivu can hold his own anyway as an offensive force in tough situations?
At the end of the day, a big centre would be nice – possibly even great for the team – but I don't think it falls under the heading of need.
Apparently, we are also in dire need of a veteran back-up goalie.
Even more ludicrous than the aforementioned, any team would be thrilled to have two good young goalies. Why should we be looking for someone on the downside of their career. I laugh when I read about Toronto signing (ahem) future hall-of-famer (ahem) Cujo. We should all be...
So what is it the Canadiens need, then?
At the risk of becoming very repetitive: A scorer who can shoot. That which makes Andrei Kostitsyn the biggest priority bar none this July.
As for a new guy, what we need is Higgins with hands, Ryder with drive, Tanguay with lower propensity for sharing.
Hossa, were it not for his looming multi-year 9 million+ deal, might be worth a look. Committing that kind of money to Hossa would mean committing the future to Hossa. Something which, we should note, neither of the two previous Stanley Cup contenders from the East, and even a team who looked like they would have nothing to lose in doing so, would do. Obvious alarm bells ring. Loud as those that were buzzing through this blog at Briere time last seaosn.
Yesterday, I think I suggested Miroslav Satan as a possible option (an obvious risk). Niklas Hagman is another, as is Rolston. And Teemu Selanne continues to scream out in the way he so obviously fits the position we need to fill. These are the next tier, the possible bargains.
If it's not one of those, what Gainey needs to look for anyone who can shoot over 10% with more than 200 shots (sorry Ribeiro). Check out the guys who meet that criteria on this list, and you'll see why. Getting a big centre who passes golden chances to others will not help while Higgins is shooting for crossbars all season. A sly point-man to feed pucks around the goalmouth on the PP will add nothing if Latendresse is expected to be the one to punctuate the plays.
I hope Gainey doesn't confuse needs with wants once the frenzy begins. Needs lead to desperation and desperation contracts (see Samsonov, Sergei). Fulfilling wants creates great feeling around the team, may even allow the team to progress that much quicker, but may just not be worth mortgaging the future (contracts beyond this year) for.
Not wishing to be the one blogger to shy away from putting forth my lopsided opinion, I wanted to weigh in on the issues of Canadiens needs.
A commonly held notion is that the Canadiens will lose Brisebois, Streit, Smolinski and Ryder and therefore need to find replacements for all of these players (JT said as much in his article on the topic a couple of days ago). While this notion is not altogether wrong – obviously someone will have to play those empty positions – replacing them with outsiders may be an unnecessary leap, at least in my humble opinion.
Brisebois – signed (for some reason) as a 5th-6th defenceman, he gradually slipped to 8th on the depth chart over the season. His place as 4th Dman was due to Carbonneau's folly and had little to do with merit. Replacing him is a matter of calling Hamilton. Any number of rookies could fit at number 8 for us.
Streit – a unique commodity, it would be nice to replace him, but also virtually impossible. If we need to replace him as a forward (I don't think we do) then it is a 4th liner now that we carry Tanguay. No need to get excited about signing a 4th liner today. If we replace him as a defenceman, then we could be stuck. Anyone who will offer as much offense (Campbell) will be far too costly, anyone who fits into the 2nd pairing as the 5th best D will be challenged to get even half those totals. Ron Hainsey is the only real match here, and signing him would beg the question: "Why didn't Gainey just sign Streit?" If he is to be replaced on the PP, finding the right free agent here is difficult. You might think Sergei Fedorov or Brian Rolston, but neither is an out and out Streit replacement. My thinking is basically that Streit cannot be directly replaced, so Gainey should not trouble himself trying to fit a round peg into a Streit-shaped hole.
Smolinski – call him insurance or veteran presence or whatever, but he was hardly a third line centre. I don't think Bryan Smolinski would need to be directly replaced at all. I think Lapierre has earned his stripes and Chipchura will have learned what it takes to stick this time around.
Ryder – if we accept he had a bad season and played little part in getting the Habs to top in the East, and remember that he didn't even set foot on the ice when we were getting outscored by Philly, then a case could be made that Michael Ryder doesn't need to be replaced. I, however, would beg to differ. I think Michael Ryder (at least the one from rookie to year 3) is the player we most need to replace. A scorer with scoring on his mind.
Needs/wants
I hear it bandied about every few minutes (or seconds these days): What Montreal really needs is a number one centre.
I think there needs to be some clarification here. Montreal does not need a number one centre in the way that Columbus, Vancouver or Atlanta do. With a bit of analysis, in fact, there could be 10 or more teams in the NHL that would be glad to have either Koivu or Plekanec as their number one pivot.
No, Montreal would really really like a "number one/two/three" centre who's bigger than Koivu – that's all.
While signing Sundin would unquestionably be an improvement for the team, it would be silly to break up Kostitsyn and Plekanec, for example, just to make him the de facto number one. Would Sundin still be the number one with Latendresse and Sergei? Would it matter?
Furthermore, how much evidence do we need that Koivu can hold his own anyway as an offensive force in tough situations?
At the end of the day, a big centre would be nice – possibly even great for the team – but I don't think it falls under the heading of need.
Apparently, we are also in dire need of a veteran back-up goalie.
Even more ludicrous than the aforementioned, any team would be thrilled to have two good young goalies. Why should we be looking for someone on the downside of their career. I laugh when I read about Toronto signing (ahem) future hall-of-famer (ahem) Cujo. We should all be...
So what is it the Canadiens need, then?
At the risk of becoming very repetitive: A scorer who can shoot. That which makes Andrei Kostitsyn the biggest priority bar none this July.
As for a new guy, what we need is Higgins with hands, Ryder with drive, Tanguay with lower propensity for sharing.
Hossa, were it not for his looming multi-year 9 million+ deal, might be worth a look. Committing that kind of money to Hossa would mean committing the future to Hossa. Something which, we should note, neither of the two previous Stanley Cup contenders from the East, and even a team who looked like they would have nothing to lose in doing so, would do. Obvious alarm bells ring. Loud as those that were buzzing through this blog at Briere time last seaosn.
Yesterday, I think I suggested Miroslav Satan as a possible option (an obvious risk). Niklas Hagman is another, as is Rolston. And Teemu Selanne continues to scream out in the way he so obviously fits the position we need to fill. These are the next tier, the possible bargains.
If it's not one of those, what Gainey needs to look for anyone who can shoot over 10% with more than 200 shots (sorry Ribeiro). Check out the guys who meet that criteria on this list, and you'll see why. Getting a big centre who passes golden chances to others will not help while Higgins is shooting for crossbars all season. A sly point-man to feed pucks around the goalmouth on the PP will add nothing if Latendresse is expected to be the one to punctuate the plays.
I hope Gainey doesn't confuse needs with wants once the frenzy begins. Needs lead to desperation and desperation contracts (see Samsonov, Sergei). Fulfilling wants creates great feeling around the team, may even allow the team to progress that much quicker, but may just not be worth mortgaging the future (contracts beyond this year) for.
Monday, June 16, 2008
The Arbitration Farce: When's Kostitsyn's Extension Going To Be Announcued?
The Penguins have filed for salary arbitration with Marc-Andre Fleury. The Penguins have no intention of going to salary arbitration with Marc-Andre Fleury.
The Penguins exploit a loophole and prevent Kevin Lowe or a desperate GM from targeting Fleury on July 1st:
This strategy is not stupid. It is quite shrewd actually.
I will be more upset than ever now if the Canadiens manage to dangle Andrei Kostitsyn for even a split second for all those jumped up GMs on July 1st. Much better to keep him in house for when all their lazy asses are on holiday come August having already blown the load on the Ryan Malones of the league.
Bob. Another chance to show us you are not just one of the pack. Let's see it...
The Penguins exploit a loophole and prevent Kevin Lowe or a desperate GM from targeting Fleury on July 1st:
Arbitration hearings are set by the National Hockey League and take place from July 20 to August 4. Both sides can continue to negotiate a contract until that time.
"By filing for salary arbitration it gives us extra time to continue to negotiate a contract with Marc-Andre," Pens general manager Ray Shero said. "As a result of the filing, Penguins' fans are assured that Marc-Andre will be under contract to our club for next season. Marc-Andre has done a tremendous job for us. We remain committed to negotiating a contract with him in the near future."
This strategy is not stupid. It is quite shrewd actually.
I will be more upset than ever now if the Canadiens manage to dangle Andrei Kostitsyn for even a split second for all those jumped up GMs on July 1st. Much better to keep him in house for when all their lazy asses are on holiday come August having already blown the load on the Ryan Malones of the league.
Bob. Another chance to show us you are not just one of the pack. Let's see it...
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