The other day I stumbled across TSN's fantasy rankings of junior players. I knew that the Habs had a few good players to look out for, but after browsing, I was even more impressed.
The ratings formula shows that all those great statistics the Candiens junior prospects are putting up are actually comparing very favourably to their peers.
Showing posts with label prospects. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prospects. Show all posts
Thursday, November 08, 2012
Friday, September 09, 2011
Habs Newbies
Every year the Canadiens surprise us all with a list round about this time that includes a few names that we have not been considering or discussing.
This year, the Canadiens have invited a whopping 31 players to rookie camp. Several are former Bulldogs, others are draft picks and the rest are what I would consider to be newbies.
The chances of any of the 8 new guys overcoming preconceived rankings and very real gaps in quality to play on Bell Centre Ice during a season are slim. But even so, I thought it would be interesting to have a quick look into who these guys are:
1) Robin Gusse (G)
Robin is a young undrafted prospect of 18 years. He has made the QMJHL his home for the past few seasons. He was once the deemed starter in Chicoutimi and won "Defensive Rookie of the Year" in 2009-10, but lost his position last season to eventual first round pick Christopher Gibson. He was later traded to Rouyn-Noranda where he posted the best stats on a horrific defensive stats line (3.72 and 0.888).
He was on the national team's radar last season, being invited to the Canadian U18 training camp. He didn't make the final roster, of course. He did, however, play for Canada/Quebec at the Ivan Hlinka tournament for U17s the previous season.
Still young and obviously once highly touted, Gusse looks like he is a very worthwhile tryout. He may even win a spot on one of the farm teams in the relatively near future, which shouldn't surprise those that have been following the Canadiens goaltending depth charts.
2) Olivier Dame-Malka (D)
Invited to the earlier Canadiens development camp in June, Dame-Malka is an interesting find. He's a 21 year-old with 4 years experience in the Q. This past season, he really rocketed in production and came third overall in scoring for defencemen. 55 points over a season was good, but what certainly must have caught the eye was 9 goals and 19 points in 15 QMJHL playoff games this past season.
Those who watched the QMJHL playoffs say that he dominated the Montreal series and has a bomb from the point. At 5'10" there will be questions, 116 PIM could indicate that he can take care of himself, or just that he is always out of position defensively. We'll have to keep an eye.
3) Tony DeHart (D)
A second offensive defenceman with an invite. This guy was drafted once (125th overall by the Islanders in 2010), but is now apparently free to go his own way.
Two seasons ago he stormed the OHL with 50 points from the back end and followed it up this season with 30 points for the Oshawa generals. Like Dame-Malka he had an eye-catching stats line in the playoffs (12 points in 10 games).
Nobody seems to have that much else to say about him. So other than his size, stats and the fact that one team once thought he was worth using a draft pick on (15 months ago) is all we have to go on. Again, it's hard to see a player like this ever getting too far up the charts, but well worth a look.
4) Josh McFadden (D)
Guess what? Another offensive defenceman. Another nice stats line. This past season McFadden was third among defencemen in the OHL in scoring (after the two Ryans and ahead of Dougie Hamilton). From 4 goals and 30 points in 2009-10, he exploded for 19 goals and 72 points in 2010-11. The 6-0, 200-pound offensive defenceman improved his defensive play in the second-half of the season and led the Wolves power play to No. 1 in the OHL.
Sudbury made the playoffs and McFadden played well, but they weren't a powerhouse in the OHL. To put up those numbers on a team like that, I'm glad our scouts were paying attention, this could be interesting.
5) Jordon Southorn (D)
A local boy who used to play for Lac-St. Louis is also getting a look. His stats might look good on another day, but these first three guys really set a high standard. He's reputed to be strong and physical which is always good and has good feet. Unfortunately the killer line for a defenceman (needs to improve decision making) makes an appearance in his byline. The Bulldogs need help, however, so you never know.
6) Ben Winnett (F)
A former Leafs pick who was a scoring sensation in the BCHL in 2007. His fermentation in the NCAA hasn't gone as well as maybe it has for others, but he put up some respectable results with the Michigan Wolverines. He's played with Pacioretty and Pateryn and Bennett, so he's been there a while. He's apparently fast and beats his opponents with speed, but obviously not that much anymore. He looks like a depth forward. Perhaps a good hard-working one given his team's success while he attended Michigan.
7) Etienne Brodeur (F)
The undrafted local boy who led the QMJHL in goals scored. I treat him as this year's 8th round draft choice, though he doesn't yet have a contract. The reason he did not get drafted is predictable. He's small. but 53 goals in today's QMJHL speaks for itself and should put most qualms about size to rest. he can obviously deal with coverage and break it wide open.
In terms of exciting upside, I think this guy might be the diamond in the rough of the tryouts here. Of course, it's always important to see how a player adapts to the next jump in speed and intensity, the NHL, even the AHL is a long way from the Q.
8) Philip DeSimone (F)
Max Pacioretty's friend, former Sioux City linemate and 2011 training partner got his invite to camp and the scoop was to Max on twitter. DeSimone outscored Pacioretty in his USHL campaign, but has not kept pace since. Instead his career took him to New Hampshire (not Michigan) where NHL dreams are not as often made (Bobby Butler excepted). Still DeSimone had his number called on draft day and has dnone well enough to expect to see at least AHL time one of these days.
The downside for DeSimone with the Canadiens organzation, as I see it, is that he sees to be a playmaker. Not that I have anything against playmakers. However, the Habs have a few and probably a few more in the minors. He might have looked better with a big line of goals for UNH.
Still, he obviously has some pull with the organization through max and might extend his look through that alone. Given how exciting I thought Bobby Butler looked when I saw him play in person, I am not about to write off a UNH Wildcat right now.
This year, the Canadiens have invited a whopping 31 players to rookie camp. Several are former Bulldogs, others are draft picks and the rest are what I would consider to be newbies.
The chances of any of the 8 new guys overcoming preconceived rankings and very real gaps in quality to play on Bell Centre Ice during a season are slim. But even so, I thought it would be interesting to have a quick look into who these guys are:
1) Robin Gusse (G)
Robin is a young undrafted prospect of 18 years. He has made the QMJHL his home for the past few seasons. He was once the deemed starter in Chicoutimi and won "Defensive Rookie of the Year" in 2009-10, but lost his position last season to eventual first round pick Christopher Gibson. He was later traded to Rouyn-Noranda where he posted the best stats on a horrific defensive stats line (3.72 and 0.888).
He was on the national team's radar last season, being invited to the Canadian U18 training camp. He didn't make the final roster, of course. He did, however, play for Canada/Quebec at the Ivan Hlinka tournament for U17s the previous season.
Still young and obviously once highly touted, Gusse looks like he is a very worthwhile tryout. He may even win a spot on one of the farm teams in the relatively near future, which shouldn't surprise those that have been following the Canadiens goaltending depth charts.
2) Olivier Dame-Malka (D)
Invited to the earlier Canadiens development camp in June, Dame-Malka is an interesting find. He's a 21 year-old with 4 years experience in the Q. This past season, he really rocketed in production and came third overall in scoring for defencemen. 55 points over a season was good, but what certainly must have caught the eye was 9 goals and 19 points in 15 QMJHL playoff games this past season.
Those who watched the QMJHL playoffs say that he dominated the Montreal series and has a bomb from the point. At 5'10" there will be questions, 116 PIM could indicate that he can take care of himself, or just that he is always out of position defensively. We'll have to keep an eye.
3) Tony DeHart (D)
A second offensive defenceman with an invite. This guy was drafted once (125th overall by the Islanders in 2010), but is now apparently free to go his own way.
Two seasons ago he stormed the OHL with 50 points from the back end and followed it up this season with 30 points for the Oshawa generals. Like Dame-Malka he had an eye-catching stats line in the playoffs (12 points in 10 games).
Nobody seems to have that much else to say about him. So other than his size, stats and the fact that one team once thought he was worth using a draft pick on (15 months ago) is all we have to go on. Again, it's hard to see a player like this ever getting too far up the charts, but well worth a look.
4) Josh McFadden (D)
Guess what? Another offensive defenceman. Another nice stats line. This past season McFadden was third among defencemen in the OHL in scoring (after the two Ryans and ahead of Dougie Hamilton). From 4 goals and 30 points in 2009-10, he exploded for 19 goals and 72 points in 2010-11. The 6-0, 200-pound offensive defenceman improved his defensive play in the second-half of the season and led the Wolves power play to No. 1 in the OHL.
Sudbury made the playoffs and McFadden played well, but they weren't a powerhouse in the OHL. To put up those numbers on a team like that, I'm glad our scouts were paying attention, this could be interesting.
5) Jordon Southorn (D)
A local boy who used to play for Lac-St. Louis is also getting a look. His stats might look good on another day, but these first three guys really set a high standard. He's reputed to be strong and physical which is always good and has good feet. Unfortunately the killer line for a defenceman (needs to improve decision making) makes an appearance in his byline. The Bulldogs need help, however, so you never know.
6) Ben Winnett (F)
A former Leafs pick who was a scoring sensation in the BCHL in 2007. His fermentation in the NCAA hasn't gone as well as maybe it has for others, but he put up some respectable results with the Michigan Wolverines. He's played with Pacioretty and Pateryn and Bennett, so he's been there a while. He's apparently fast and beats his opponents with speed, but obviously not that much anymore. He looks like a depth forward. Perhaps a good hard-working one given his team's success while he attended Michigan.
7) Etienne Brodeur (F)
The undrafted local boy who led the QMJHL in goals scored. I treat him as this year's 8th round draft choice, though he doesn't yet have a contract. The reason he did not get drafted is predictable. He's small. but 53 goals in today's QMJHL speaks for itself and should put most qualms about size to rest. he can obviously deal with coverage and break it wide open.
In terms of exciting upside, I think this guy might be the diamond in the rough of the tryouts here. Of course, it's always important to see how a player adapts to the next jump in speed and intensity, the NHL, even the AHL is a long way from the Q.
8) Philip DeSimone (F)
Max Pacioretty's friend, former Sioux City linemate and 2011 training partner got his invite to camp and the scoop was to Max on twitter. DeSimone outscored Pacioretty in his USHL campaign, but has not kept pace since. Instead his career took him to New Hampshire (not Michigan) where NHL dreams are not as often made (Bobby Butler excepted). Still DeSimone had his number called on draft day and has dnone well enough to expect to see at least AHL time one of these days.
The downside for DeSimone with the Canadiens organzation, as I see it, is that he sees to be a playmaker. Not that I have anything against playmakers. However, the Habs have a few and probably a few more in the minors. He might have looked better with a big line of goals for UNH.
Still, he obviously has some pull with the organization through max and might extend his look through that alone. Given how exciting I thought Bobby Butler looked when I saw him play in person, I am not about to write off a UNH Wildcat right now.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Tinordi And The Habs Prospects
Today, Habs Eyes On The Prize has published their profile for #10 player under the age of 25 in the entire Habs organization: Jarred Tinordi.
I was part of the voting for these top 25 players and I promised you all that I would have comments on the picks when the time was right. Well the time is right. I think Jarred Tinordi at #10 says a lot about this team, its future and the fans who follow its story.
First of all, you should know that I did vote for Jarred Tinordi in this poll. I placed him at #22 on my overall list of players under the age of 25.
Tinordi in my estimation was drafted for one main reason: size. Luckily for us Habs fans he is not just big, he is very big. In fact, he's so big (6'7"). But the rest of the scouting report of Jarred Tinordi is not made to turn heads. He skates well (always written for a big player), he has an excellent shot from the point (but it must be noted he actually scores few goals with it) is mean (but by most reports not that mean).
Based on numerous firsthand reports of acquaintances and OHL fans, I gather he had an enormous amount of trouble adapting to the OHL. Even the most generous reports said only that he fit in and just didn't set himself apart from the garden variety OHL Dman. At the end of the day, he had a rough first season in the OHL. Yes, he was a rookie in that league. But at 18/19 through this season he was not one of the younger players. Legitimate excuses for his performance can be found, but I wonder if we're starting that 2 leagues below the NHL what to expect in a few years.
Tinordi at #10 is an indictment of the Canadiens talent pool
One of the problems I have with Tinordi is that I find his profiles and projections speak to me. I find little I can disagree with based on what I have seen heard and read about the player in the assessments that result. The sum up at the end of his profile on EOTP says it all in this regard:
Does this light any fires? Potential future defensive defenceman?
(Oh good, those summers we won't have to sign Jeff Woywitka or Paul Mara.)
To me, this assessment which essentially spells potential #4-6 defenceman is not heartening at the #10 position among all players under 25. To me, this is a massive indictment of the rest of the plaers that come after him.
Good scoring hands? So what, he'll definitely be less valuable than a future Hal Gill. Impressive season in the WHL? Whatever,there's no way he'll fare better than someone who struggled in the OHL. 5'9" with speed? I'd trade all the skill and speed for 9 inches.
Overrated
Luckily Habs fans, I don't think the Habs pool of players is awful, I just think that in this case Tinordi's value has been vastly overrated. Moreover, I think the value of having a very big guy as your 5th most frequently used defender has been overrated.
Take for example some of the players I ranked ahead of him that eventually received a lower consensus number than him: Michael Bournival, Brendan Gallagher, Alexander Avtsin, Brock Trotter and Magnus Nygren.
Bournival just put up his second point per game season in a row in the QMJHL as the Captain of the Shawinigan Cataractes. He was a late cut from the Canadian Junior Team (not an early cut from the American Junior team) and scored plenty of goals. Bournival certainly is a guaranteed first line player, but hope is not lost that he could score in the NHL.
Gallagher just scored 40+ goals for the second straight season in a WHL where 28 goals is now sometimes touted as future power forward. If he was over 6' tall he would be in the top 3 Habs prospects. With a chance taken on him, there's plenty of precedent to see NHL goals in his future too.
Avtsin just played his first season in Hamilton after his stint in the KHL. Again questions exist, but the tools are plain to see. Skating, shooting, puck control and many other of the unteachables. A bit of investment in time and teaching into a player like this would turn him into better than a 5th defenceman in my honest opinion.
Trotter was 6th in AHL scoring 2 seasons ago and did a pretty bang up job in the KHL this past season. He's an injury away from the NHL this season. Used correctly nothing in his past suggests he'll be a hanger-on.
Nygren is my favourite. He just ended a season as one of the best up and coming defencemen in the top Swedish league. Playing with men, he availed himself well and wrested the PP QB role from established members of the organization at age 20. Skating and Swedish acumen alone suggest he would have chance, and a chance with upside.
These are just four for me, but four that I would be comfortable placing higher ceilings on than Jarred Tinordi. Sure they all face uncertainty about NHL career at all, but then I wouldn't mind if I'd never had to watch Andy Sutton.
In my estimation, the Habs have drafted fairly well and filled in the gaps pretty adeptly with players like Raphael Diaz, Brock Trotter, Peter Delmas and Alain Berger.
In my estimation the team has one of the brighter crops of players under the age of 25 in the league.
Tinordi, apart from in size, bloodlines and picks invested does not stack up to these 5 and the other 7 guys I ranked a head of him.
I don't see this a s a bad thing, but rather something very bright. For if I shared the opinion that our tenth best young player could one day, if things go well, be put out to defend the future Chris Kellys of the league then I'm pretty certain I'd be looking into future winter pastimes to take up in 5 years time.
I was part of the voting for these top 25 players and I promised you all that I would have comments on the picks when the time was right. Well the time is right. I think Jarred Tinordi at #10 says a lot about this team, its future and the fans who follow its story.
First of all, you should know that I did vote for Jarred Tinordi in this poll. I placed him at #22 on my overall list of players under the age of 25.
Tinordi in my estimation was drafted for one main reason: size. Luckily for us Habs fans he is not just big, he is very big. In fact, he's so big (6'7"). But the rest of the scouting report of Jarred Tinordi is not made to turn heads. He skates well (always written for a big player), he has an excellent shot from the point (but it must be noted he actually scores few goals with it) is mean (but by most reports not that mean).
Based on numerous firsthand reports of acquaintances and OHL fans, I gather he had an enormous amount of trouble adapting to the OHL. Even the most generous reports said only that he fit in and just didn't set himself apart from the garden variety OHL Dman. At the end of the day, he had a rough first season in the OHL. Yes, he was a rookie in that league. But at 18/19 through this season he was not one of the younger players. Legitimate excuses for his performance can be found, but I wonder if we're starting that 2 leagues below the NHL what to expect in a few years.
Tinordi at #10 is an indictment of the Canadiens talent pool
One of the problems I have with Tinordi is that I find his profiles and projections speak to me. I find little I can disagree with based on what I have seen heard and read about the player in the assessments that result. The sum up at the end of his profile on EOTP says it all in this regard:
If his development goes well I would expect Tinordi to become a good 3rd pairing defenseman that his used heavily in his own end and on the penalty kill, with the outside chance he might turn out to be a decent 2nd pairing shutdown player.I wholeheartedly agree. I to am optimistic that Tinordi will one day play in the NHL. But, I share the notion that his ceiling will be a complementary role on any future team.
Does this light any fires? Potential future defensive defenceman?
(Oh good, those summers we won't have to sign Jeff Woywitka or Paul Mara.)
To me, this assessment which essentially spells potential #4-6 defenceman is not heartening at the #10 position among all players under 25. To me, this is a massive indictment of the rest of the plaers that come after him.
Good scoring hands? So what, he'll definitely be less valuable than a future Hal Gill. Impressive season in the WHL? Whatever,there's no way he'll fare better than someone who struggled in the OHL. 5'9" with speed? I'd trade all the skill and speed for 9 inches.
Overrated
Luckily Habs fans, I don't think the Habs pool of players is awful, I just think that in this case Tinordi's value has been vastly overrated. Moreover, I think the value of having a very big guy as your 5th most frequently used defender has been overrated.
Take for example some of the players I ranked ahead of him that eventually received a lower consensus number than him: Michael Bournival, Brendan Gallagher, Alexander Avtsin, Brock Trotter and Magnus Nygren.
Bournival just put up his second point per game season in a row in the QMJHL as the Captain of the Shawinigan Cataractes. He was a late cut from the Canadian Junior Team (not an early cut from the American Junior team) and scored plenty of goals. Bournival certainly is a guaranteed first line player, but hope is not lost that he could score in the NHL.
Gallagher just scored 40+ goals for the second straight season in a WHL where 28 goals is now sometimes touted as future power forward. If he was over 6' tall he would be in the top 3 Habs prospects. With a chance taken on him, there's plenty of precedent to see NHL goals in his future too.
Avtsin just played his first season in Hamilton after his stint in the KHL. Again questions exist, but the tools are plain to see. Skating, shooting, puck control and many other of the unteachables. A bit of investment in time and teaching into a player like this would turn him into better than a 5th defenceman in my honest opinion.
Trotter was 6th in AHL scoring 2 seasons ago and did a pretty bang up job in the KHL this past season. He's an injury away from the NHL this season. Used correctly nothing in his past suggests he'll be a hanger-on.
Nygren is my favourite. He just ended a season as one of the best up and coming defencemen in the top Swedish league. Playing with men, he availed himself well and wrested the PP QB role from established members of the organization at age 20. Skating and Swedish acumen alone suggest he would have chance, and a chance with upside.
These are just four for me, but four that I would be comfortable placing higher ceilings on than Jarred Tinordi. Sure they all face uncertainty about NHL career at all, but then I wouldn't mind if I'd never had to watch Andy Sutton.
In my estimation, the Habs have drafted fairly well and filled in the gaps pretty adeptly with players like Raphael Diaz, Brock Trotter, Peter Delmas and Alain Berger.
In my estimation the team has one of the brighter crops of players under the age of 25 in the league.
Tinordi, apart from in size, bloodlines and picks invested does not stack up to these 5 and the other 7 guys I ranked a head of him.
I don't see this a s a bad thing, but rather something very bright. For if I shared the opinion that our tenth best young player could one day, if things go well, be put out to defend the future Chris Kellys of the league then I'm pretty certain I'd be looking into future winter pastimes to take up in 5 years time.
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Ranking Prospects: By Committee
In my last post, I went charging full steam at some prospect ranking processes I didn't like. You'd think I'd be wise enough then to stay out of the prospect ranking game.
Think again. As I said, take the results with a grain or two of salt, but the fact remains ranking prospects is a fun sport for summertime.
The prospect ranking that I allude to here is the current Top 25 countdown of players aged 25 or under within the Canadiens system. The guys at Eyes on the Prize put in all the effort to gather opinion, compile and make some nice informative posts with snazzy graphics. I participated, but only by virtue of giving my two cents on the list.
From the looks of it, Habs Eyevs on the Prize will be releasing a profile each day until the 25 names are through. I suggest you take a look now and in the next couple of weeks as the bottom of this heap is where the least known prospects reside.
My plan is to read and watch.
Because I have my own list and the consensus list, I also plan to do a few highlights on players that I ranked much higher or much lower with some explanation as to my reasoning. My profiles, of course, following on from their profiles, so the thunder is not stolen from its rightful holders.
Until then, take it in. Save up some of your own ideas/grievances, and we can have a full on battle of philosophies when the time comes...
Think again. As I said, take the results with a grain or two of salt, but the fact remains ranking prospects is a fun sport for summertime.
The prospect ranking that I allude to here is the current Top 25 countdown of players aged 25 or under within the Canadiens system. The guys at Eyes on the Prize put in all the effort to gather opinion, compile and make some nice informative posts with snazzy graphics. I participated, but only by virtue of giving my two cents on the list.
From the looks of it, Habs Eyevs on the Prize will be releasing a profile each day until the 25 names are through. I suggest you take a look now and in the next couple of weeks as the bottom of this heap is where the least known prospects reside.
My plan is to read and watch.
Because I have my own list and the consensus list, I also plan to do a few highlights on players that I ranked much higher or much lower with some explanation as to my reasoning. My profiles, of course, following on from their profiles, so the thunder is not stolen from its rightful holders.
Until then, take it in. Save up some of your own ideas/grievances, and we can have a full on battle of philosophies when the time comes...
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Ranking Prospects
If you were to take the internauts' word for it, the Canadiens don't have a very bright future at all.
Today, Hockey Prospectus published their rationale for placing the Canadiens 24th on the list of 30 NHL teams (behind the Toronto Maple Leafs!).
Add this to the already sad ranking of #20 at Hockey's Future, and what's a Habs fan to think?
Think is the key word.
Detroit is the first ranked team on the Hockey Prospectus page in terms of prospects. This might be your first flag that methods need investigating.
Is Detroit the only team in the NHL without worthwhile player to make the NHL from drafts 2005-2010? They very well might be. Shawn Matthis, Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader highlight the NHL leaders from the 30-odd players Detroit has selected in that time. Compare this to Carey Price (Hart trophy votes), Yannick Weber, Guillaume Latendresse, Sergei Kostitsyn (team's leading scorer), PK Subban to name but a few.
You can see the issue here. Part of it is that Montreal has promoted players to the NHL level -- thereby taking them out of the "prospect" ranking formulae. Part of the issue is that Detroit gives their players more time (partly because they can due to NHL roster depth).
Let's take the example of Brendan Smith. He was drafted #27 overall in the 2007 entry draft and played some god years in the NCAA since. Last year he put up decent numbers in the AHL as rookie. He projects as a good-looking top prospect for the Wings.
But now consider that he was taken only a few picks ahead of PK Subban, is older than PK and actually got less points as an AHL rookie than PK did as an NHL rookie. Detroit's ranking is being helped by a player much less exciting a prospect than PK, even though PK probably has many more productive NHL years ahead of him than Brendan will. And it doesn't stop there. Yannick Weber was also drafted that year and turned the AHL rookie success earlier than Smith. He has since made an NHL case and was scoring important NHL playoff goals against the Stanley Cup champions while Smith was watching the AHL playoffs.
So you see it's a bit of nonsense already, and I didn't even have to delve very far, or mention Carey Price.
The reason people came up with the saying "Hindsight is 20/20" is because predicting and foretelling very much isn't. The lesson here is to take these rankings with the appropriate amount of salt. While the player profiles provide an interesting read, the ranking process is tenuous. When one could make a case that #24 Montreal has better young prospects (NHL and AHL) than #1 Detroit, you can see my point.
Today, Hockey Prospectus published their rationale for placing the Canadiens 24th on the list of 30 NHL teams (behind the Toronto Maple Leafs!).
Add this to the already sad ranking of #20 at Hockey's Future, and what's a Habs fan to think?
Think is the key word.
Detroit is the first ranked team on the Hockey Prospectus page in terms of prospects. This might be your first flag that methods need investigating.
Is Detroit the only team in the NHL without worthwhile player to make the NHL from drafts 2005-2010? They very well might be. Shawn Matthis, Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader highlight the NHL leaders from the 30-odd players Detroit has selected in that time. Compare this to Carey Price (Hart trophy votes), Yannick Weber, Guillaume Latendresse, Sergei Kostitsyn (team's leading scorer), PK Subban to name but a few.
You can see the issue here. Part of it is that Montreal has promoted players to the NHL level -- thereby taking them out of the "prospect" ranking formulae. Part of the issue is that Detroit gives their players more time (partly because they can due to NHL roster depth).
Let's take the example of Brendan Smith. He was drafted #27 overall in the 2007 entry draft and played some god years in the NCAA since. Last year he put up decent numbers in the AHL as rookie. He projects as a good-looking top prospect for the Wings.
But now consider that he was taken only a few picks ahead of PK Subban, is older than PK and actually got less points as an AHL rookie than PK did as an NHL rookie. Detroit's ranking is being helped by a player much less exciting a prospect than PK, even though PK probably has many more productive NHL years ahead of him than Brendan will. And it doesn't stop there. Yannick Weber was also drafted that year and turned the AHL rookie success earlier than Smith. He has since made an NHL case and was scoring important NHL playoff goals against the Stanley Cup champions while Smith was watching the AHL playoffs.
So you see it's a bit of nonsense already, and I didn't even have to delve very far, or mention Carey Price.
The reason people came up with the saying "Hindsight is 20/20" is because predicting and foretelling very much isn't. The lesson here is to take these rankings with the appropriate amount of salt. While the player profiles provide an interesting read, the ranking process is tenuous. When one could make a case that #24 Montreal has better young prospects (NHL and AHL) than #1 Detroit, you can see my point.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Battles, Cuts and Intrigue
Martin's Mind By Ice Time
In the world of new statistics we are told that we can tell a coach's mind to a certain extent by faceoff deployment. Important faceoffs are taken by important players (favoured players). The same can be extrapolated from ice time.
As camp winds down and the NHL team is left to rake in revenue for the Molsons, we can begin to view Martin's mind.
Battles
There are a few pitched battles going on under the radar as far as I can tell.
Up front, Eller just about locked up his place in the NHL with his display last night. But that was probably superfluous, as Martin seems smitten with the Dane - he's played 49:30 already, good for 4th most among forwards.
This has muddied the waters a bit in my opinion after the top 9. Here Pouliot has possibly slipped to earn his place along with Darche, Boyd, Maxwell, White and Pacioretty (Pyatt based on his enormous usage so far, along with Moen and Halpern, i judge to be safe). Pouliot should hold the edge but for his last 2 efforts. Even so, he holds good cards with Martin the dealer. Boyd has NHL cred to back him up. Darche the benefit of the doubt.
Its the challenges of White and Maxwell that stand out for me. Martin has used White sparingly, but with great effect thus far. Ryan looks to be what Moen, Darche and Boyd may not be. Maxwell is different. He's looked genuinely inspired at times at stark contrast with Pouliot. The fact he's a natural centre would be the only thing holding back his odds for me. Notice no mention of Pacioretty. Despite his points, his underuse to the tune of 21:19 over 2 games belies his starting position on the grid. He's a very dark horse for the big team this year indeed.
On D, there are battles too, but they seem less urgent with the injuries. With Carle out of the way, it's Weber, Picard and O'Byrne for the final two places in my opinion. Martin tips his hand with playing time here. Weber has played 64:09 in 3 games. Picard has played 49:56 in 2. O'Byrne, meanwhile lags at 36:39 for 2. It seems that Weber ad Picard have their noses in front, but we mustn't forget that a defense of Subban, Spacek, Weber, Picard, Hamrlik, Markov seems highly unfavourable to the goalies we have. O'Byrne hangs on therefore, and a couple of decent (don't even have to be great) efforts should see him through to starting lineup.
Cuts
The cuts from training camp represent a multi-tiered group. There are the players outside the plans, juniors like Lefebvre, Leblanc, Tinordi. There are the players who are tipped for the AHL. And then there are those that have played themselves out of positions.
The list of players sent to Hamilton includes:
G: Robert Mayer and Peter Delmas
D: Frederic St-Denis, Sebastien Bisaillon, Marc-Antoine Desnoyers, Kyle Klubertanz, Brendon Nash, Neil Petruic, David Urquhart and Mathieu Carle
F: Andrew Conboy, Olivier Fortier, Dany Masse, Aaron Palushaj, J.T. Wyman, Alexander Avtsin, Jimmy Bonneau, Ian Shultz, David Desharnais, Gabriel Dumont and Andreas Engqvist
The Bulldogs though are like the Habs, they are restricted in the positions they have to offer. Not to mention that 4 to 5 of the 16 forwards up in Montreal (likely to include Russell and Bishop among others), 1 or 2 of the Dmen and 1 more goalie will be demoted.
So far, only Champion has been released outright. He was a try-out with the Habs and now leaves for junior without a contract. Another in the rather lengthy list of potential goalies to attempt to fill the Canadiens shallow depth chart this summer.
Delmas is at Bulldogs camp now, but unless he does something reveletionary, he'll be in Wheeling or elsewhere come October. Ditto two of Urquhart, Bisaillon, Desnoyers and Petruic. Up front though the Canadiens only have 29 bodies to play 24 positions and fill 26 to 28 places. I'd wager Bonneau is the favourite to be deemed non-Bulldog material by the Habs, but who knows, Masse and Russell might be in that mix.
Of the cuts to be favourites on the Dogs, look for Desharnais, Engqvist and Palushaj who all got very long looks at the big camp (41:38, 35:18 and 33:11 in playing time, respectively). On D, that man would be Carle who saw 38:29, mostly out of necessity.
Intrigue
Intrigue might be a strong word, but there are some surprises from the camp.
First for me is the goalie deployment. On other teams we have seen complete unknowns get a skate out in goal. Not so in Montreal. Robert Mayer, the legitimate back-up for Hamilton got a half game, as did Sanford. The goalie overuse in these early games was probably made necessary by certain athletes needing more time to ready themselves. I feel it comes at a cost to the organization, which as I mentioned has no depth at the position.
Second has to be Spacek's playing time. What on earth is Martin driving at? 72:57 so far for the guy we all anticipate needing nights off to rest during the season. It's bordering on madness, playing Jaro as much as that. It's come at the expense of Ryan O'Byrne in part, but also the contenders like Carle, Klubertanz and St. Denis who played a combined hour between them. Not that I know what I'm doing as a coach, but I'd also have thought that it might be more useful to get those potential replacements into games ahead of Jarred Tinordi who at 18 has a few years of tutelage to come before bleu, blanc, rouge days.
Finally, there's Avtsin. Upon demotion, Martin said something about his injury from the summer really holding him back during camp. Apparently it held him back to the point that he couldn't even dress for the early undressings at the hands of the Bruins and Sens. The player commits in a big way to come to North America and doesn't even get a minute of ice. Fortier was injured a whole season and didn't have a chance of making the team at all and he got a skate. JT Wyamn is no NHLer and he got 2 games. Conboy has nothing more to offer than a scowl, he got two as well. We don't know inner workings. Maybe Avtsinn was injured. I suppose I hope he was/is, because it would be a shame if the Habs blew another prospect because Martin is stuck in his ways.
As camp winds down and the NHL team is left to rake in revenue for the Molsons, we can begin to view Martin's mind.
Battles
There are a few pitched battles going on under the radar as far as I can tell.
Up front, Eller just about locked up his place in the NHL with his display last night. But that was probably superfluous, as Martin seems smitten with the Dane - he's played 49:30 already, good for 4th most among forwards.
This has muddied the waters a bit in my opinion after the top 9. Here Pouliot has possibly slipped to earn his place along with Darche, Boyd, Maxwell, White and Pacioretty (Pyatt based on his enormous usage so far, along with Moen and Halpern, i judge to be safe). Pouliot should hold the edge but for his last 2 efforts. Even so, he holds good cards with Martin the dealer. Boyd has NHL cred to back him up. Darche the benefit of the doubt.
Its the challenges of White and Maxwell that stand out for me. Martin has used White sparingly, but with great effect thus far. Ryan looks to be what Moen, Darche and Boyd may not be. Maxwell is different. He's looked genuinely inspired at times at stark contrast with Pouliot. The fact he's a natural centre would be the only thing holding back his odds for me. Notice no mention of Pacioretty. Despite his points, his underuse to the tune of 21:19 over 2 games belies his starting position on the grid. He's a very dark horse for the big team this year indeed.
On D, there are battles too, but they seem less urgent with the injuries. With Carle out of the way, it's Weber, Picard and O'Byrne for the final two places in my opinion. Martin tips his hand with playing time here. Weber has played 64:09 in 3 games. Picard has played 49:56 in 2. O'Byrne, meanwhile lags at 36:39 for 2. It seems that Weber ad Picard have their noses in front, but we mustn't forget that a defense of Subban, Spacek, Weber, Picard, Hamrlik, Markov seems highly unfavourable to the goalies we have. O'Byrne hangs on therefore, and a couple of decent (don't even have to be great) efforts should see him through to starting lineup.
Cuts
The cuts from training camp represent a multi-tiered group. There are the players outside the plans, juniors like Lefebvre, Leblanc, Tinordi. There are the players who are tipped for the AHL. And then there are those that have played themselves out of positions.
The list of players sent to Hamilton includes:
G: Robert Mayer and Peter Delmas
D: Frederic St-Denis, Sebastien Bisaillon, Marc-Antoine Desnoyers, Kyle Klubertanz, Brendon Nash, Neil Petruic, David Urquhart and Mathieu Carle
F: Andrew Conboy, Olivier Fortier, Dany Masse, Aaron Palushaj, J.T. Wyman, Alexander Avtsin, Jimmy Bonneau, Ian Shultz, David Desharnais, Gabriel Dumont and Andreas Engqvist
The Bulldogs though are like the Habs, they are restricted in the positions they have to offer. Not to mention that 4 to 5 of the 16 forwards up in Montreal (likely to include Russell and Bishop among others), 1 or 2 of the Dmen and 1 more goalie will be demoted.
So far, only Champion has been released outright. He was a try-out with the Habs and now leaves for junior without a contract. Another in the rather lengthy list of potential goalies to attempt to fill the Canadiens shallow depth chart this summer.
Delmas is at Bulldogs camp now, but unless he does something reveletionary, he'll be in Wheeling or elsewhere come October. Ditto two of Urquhart, Bisaillon, Desnoyers and Petruic. Up front though the Canadiens only have 29 bodies to play 24 positions and fill 26 to 28 places. I'd wager Bonneau is the favourite to be deemed non-Bulldog material by the Habs, but who knows, Masse and Russell might be in that mix.
Of the cuts to be favourites on the Dogs, look for Desharnais, Engqvist and Palushaj who all got very long looks at the big camp (41:38, 35:18 and 33:11 in playing time, respectively). On D, that man would be Carle who saw 38:29, mostly out of necessity.
Intrigue
Intrigue might be a strong word, but there are some surprises from the camp.
First for me is the goalie deployment. On other teams we have seen complete unknowns get a skate out in goal. Not so in Montreal. Robert Mayer, the legitimate back-up for Hamilton got a half game, as did Sanford. The goalie overuse in these early games was probably made necessary by certain athletes needing more time to ready themselves. I feel it comes at a cost to the organization, which as I mentioned has no depth at the position.
Second has to be Spacek's playing time. What on earth is Martin driving at? 72:57 so far for the guy we all anticipate needing nights off to rest during the season. It's bordering on madness, playing Jaro as much as that. It's come at the expense of Ryan O'Byrne in part, but also the contenders like Carle, Klubertanz and St. Denis who played a combined hour between them. Not that I know what I'm doing as a coach, but I'd also have thought that it might be more useful to get those potential replacements into games ahead of Jarred Tinordi who at 18 has a few years of tutelage to come before bleu, blanc, rouge days.
Finally, there's Avtsin. Upon demotion, Martin said something about his injury from the summer really holding him back during camp. Apparently it held him back to the point that he couldn't even dress for the early undressings at the hands of the Bruins and Sens. The player commits in a big way to come to North America and doesn't even get a minute of ice. Fortier was injured a whole season and didn't have a chance of making the team at all and he got a skate. JT Wyamn is no NHLer and he got 2 games. Conboy has nothing more to offer than a scowl, he got two as well. We don't know inner workings. Maybe Avtsinn was injured. I suppose I hope he was/is, because it would be a shame if the Habs blew another prospect because Martin is stuck in his ways.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Canadiens Recall Robert Mayer
RDS and others are reporting that the Habs have called up Swiss/Czech goaltender Robert Mayer to stand in for Jaroslav Halak in Canadiens practices this week.
It's not really Canadiens news as such, as Mayer is firmly 5th choice for the big team – as if they ever let it get to that point without trading. However, for the young man, it must be quite an exciting time.
Let's face it, though, this is the biggest Habs news of the past while. And it is more interesting given we haven't spoken about or glanced in Mayer's direction in months.
Who is Mayer?
Mayer is what he is – a depth prospect. He came to the organization as a signing rather than a draft pick following a fairly strong 2007-08 during which he played a decent back-up role on a strong Saint John SeaDogs team and backstopped Switzerland at the World Juniors. One has to think that he really got on Timmins and co.'s radar at the U18 Worlds in 2007, though, where he excelled in posting the top save percentage of his year for the tournament.
His stats don't scream elite prospect, but he did do enough to make the CHL top prospects game ahead of the 2008 draft where he ended up going unselected.
Hockey's future has Mayer as prospect #17 for the Habs, which is either a compliment to Mayer or an indictment of the depth the organization pretends to have. The good news is the reviewer for the site, despite panning Mayer generally, still has something to like in a glove hand and positioning (a rare combination?):
In any case, this is what it's reported to be, and not some prelude to Halak/Price being shipped. The Hamilton Bulldogs are winning and need their goalies, and the Montreal re-Habs need someone else to shoot on.
Robert Mayer, good luck and enjoy yourself...
It's not really Canadiens news as such, as Mayer is firmly 5th choice for the big team – as if they ever let it get to that point without trading. However, for the young man, it must be quite an exciting time.
Let's face it, though, this is the biggest Habs news of the past while. And it is more interesting given we haven't spoken about or glanced in Mayer's direction in months.
Who is Mayer?
Mayer is what he is – a depth prospect. He came to the organization as a signing rather than a draft pick following a fairly strong 2007-08 during which he played a decent back-up role on a strong Saint John SeaDogs team and backstopped Switzerland at the World Juniors. One has to think that he really got on Timmins and co.'s radar at the U18 Worlds in 2007, though, where he excelled in posting the top save percentage of his year for the tournament.
His stats don't scream elite prospect, but he did do enough to make the CHL top prospects game ahead of the 2008 draft where he ended up going unselected.
Hockey's future has Mayer as prospect #17 for the Habs, which is either a compliment to Mayer or an indictment of the depth the organization pretends to have. The good news is the reviewer for the site, despite panning Mayer generally, still has something to like in a glove hand and positioning (a rare combination?):
With solid positioning and a great glove hand, Mayer has the potential to be much better then what he has shown so far.
In any case, this is what it's reported to be, and not some prelude to Halak/Price being shipped. The Hamilton Bulldogs are winning and need their goalies, and the Montreal re-Habs need someone else to shoot on.
Robert Mayer, good luck and enjoy yourself...
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Canadiens Season Preview
Remaining NHL Defencemen
We must be getting close to the season now. For you today, the reserve defencemen:
Gill, Weber
Hal Gill
Legend
Stats notes
He's 7th on my list. I have to justify why I may have sold him short:
1) Great balance of offense and defence, but...
There's no denying it, the top half of the pie is exactly what we're after – above average O and D. The only thing was: shouldn't it have been expected? I certainly think the offensive half should have been on Pittsburgh. And looking at the D, it's better than I would have guessed for Pitts, but Gill was tempting fate by allowing more than the average number of chances against Fleury and co.
2) Possibility of bad giveaway balance
My perception of Hal Gill was always that of a slow defenceman who gave away the puck when pressured. Never mind for a minute that Andrei Markov is no star in this regard, getting near 3.0 giveaways every 60 minutes is keeping some poor company – well within the bottom 10% of Dmen in this league. Gill has flirted with that number twice in the last 3 years and last year, though improved, was still in the bottom 30-odd Dmen in this regard. A one-off is forgivable (see O'Byrne), is 3 strikes?
3) Strangely low hit numbers
Considering he's 6'7", it seems it would be difficult to keep the hit numbers as low as they are. It makes me wonder if Gill hits when players come to him, but is not so good at catching them. Either that or he's the Peter Crouch of hockey – a man whose made a career on being a giant, but possessing in reality a complement of little man skills. This was really what tipped it for O'Byrne with me. Though I don't think hits are the be all and end all that Komi does, I do think it is important not to dress 6 defencemen who shy from hard contact.
Tobalev on Gill:
Part two of the plan is the bigger and heavier Hal Gill. His size (6’7”, 250lbs.) are really the only things getting him work in this league. My memories of him are that of a pretty useless defenceman on some pretty dirty/cheap teams (save Pittsburgh). It is therefore quite surprising that he was +11 last year, but I guess we should remember that he was on the best team. The whole hockey world saw during the Pens’ playoff run what this behemoth could (and couldn’t) offer on the ice and many people saw him as a liability on that team. He was, however, used in 24 playoff games and did win a cup – those are experiences that can’t be taught.
I am glad that we are employing Gill as a #6 man as anything more would be way beyond his abilities. The upside for us is that he is big and strong and should in theory intimidate opposing forwards. He also doesn’t seem afraid to muck it up and drop them when he has to, which will also help our team. His addition should, at the very least, help us reduce chances against and will hopefully alleviate some of the fighting and hitting duties from other (smaller) players. He may chip in a few points, but as a 3rd pairing (with Mara, Spacek or Gorges) type guy all I’ll be looking for is positive play. If, for his 12-15 minutes/game, he can keep our end clear then I will start to see the value in him more and more.
Where Gill will start 2009-10: Starting lineup
Where Gill will end 2009-10: Insurance policy
Points: 2 G, 7 A, 9 Pts
Yannick Weber
Stats notes
I didn't bother to run all the stats on Weber – 3 games doesn't really tell us anything. And it would be foolish to try and pick trends from the regular season and playoffs as short as they were.
If I can indulge in one point of frivolity, I'd have to say that it is a good sign that the projected offensive defenceman has already got his first NHL points and his first playoff goal. Though far from confirmation, it shows the first signs of his abilities to adapt to the higher level.
Tobalev on Weber
Do we have another Swiss (Can’t) Miss on our hands? I sure hope so. If he could be half the player that Streit was/is then we are in for a good ride (until we let him walk for nothing that is)...
Yannick really surprised a lot of people last year and it all started back in September. There was a buzz about him out of camp and he turned that into a strong start on the farm. In fact, he netted 44 points in just 68 games which is quite something for a 20 year old, let alone a defenceman. His strong play and some injuries (Markov, Schneider) meant that he finally made his way to MTL in the spring. Believe it or not he only featured in 6 games (3 of which came in the playoffs), but still managed to turn some heads. His play during that time looked alright, and he scored a goal and added 2 assists. He held his own in his our end too. Weber was a nice little bonus for Habs fans who had endured a rough 3 months.
Even so, I think that there are just too many NHL-level defencemen already in Montreal for Yannick to crack the squad this year as a regular. He will certainly get a call-up or two, but there is no point having a PP specialist in the press-box as a 7th defenceman – that position has O’Byrne written all over it. Instead he should go to Hamilton and play a lot of hockey. A spot will likely open up in Montreal in the next few years as we always seem to be rotating new PP bodies onto the blue-line anyway. I would like Yannick to work on his defensive game so that it becomes NHL-ready for when we need him. Offensively, however, he just has to stay the course – I see no issues there. Weber should put up 0.75 PPG type numbers on the farm and 0.25-0.35 PPG numbers when he is in Montreal; I just can’t foresee how much time he’ll play where.
Where Weber will start 2009-10: Hamilton
Where Weber will end 2009-10: Hamilton, with a few more games of NHL experience
Points: 3 G, 3 A, 6 Pts
I have put Gill and Weber in this category of remaining NHL defencemen for now because that is where, come season's end, I think they will be. Weber, as we said, has too many NHLers in front of him this season and will probably be in Hamilton for a big part of the season. Gill on the other hand is an able NHLer, I just feel that on versatility and potential (and a whim) that O'Byrne might work out better. Nevertheless, Gill will play, and quite a lot, quite simply because many NHLers have a very hard time the bigger the body they see in front of them (see Plekanec).
Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier
Gill, Weber
Hal Gill
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | Hits/60 | BkS/60 | GvA/60 | TkA/60 | Gv:Tk | PIM |
| 08-09 (PIT) | 62 | 2 | 8 | 10 | +11 | 4.22 | 6.06 | 2.43 | 0.65 | -1.78 | 53 |
| 07-08 (TOR/PIT) | 81 | 3 | 21 | 24 | +6 | 4.70 | 5.30 | 2.89 | 0.89 | -2.00 | 68 |
| 06-07 (TOR) | 82 | 6 | 14 | 20 | +11 | 4.69 | 4.84 | 2.75 | 1.36 | -1.39 | 91 |
| Even-strength profile | |
 |
|
Stats notes
He's 7th on my list. I have to justify why I may have sold him short:
1) Great balance of offense and defence, but...
There's no denying it, the top half of the pie is exactly what we're after – above average O and D. The only thing was: shouldn't it have been expected? I certainly think the offensive half should have been on Pittsburgh. And looking at the D, it's better than I would have guessed for Pitts, but Gill was tempting fate by allowing more than the average number of chances against Fleury and co.
2) Possibility of bad giveaway balance
My perception of Hal Gill was always that of a slow defenceman who gave away the puck when pressured. Never mind for a minute that Andrei Markov is no star in this regard, getting near 3.0 giveaways every 60 minutes is keeping some poor company – well within the bottom 10% of Dmen in this league. Gill has flirted with that number twice in the last 3 years and last year, though improved, was still in the bottom 30-odd Dmen in this regard. A one-off is forgivable (see O'Byrne), is 3 strikes?
3) Strangely low hit numbers
Considering he's 6'7", it seems it would be difficult to keep the hit numbers as low as they are. It makes me wonder if Gill hits when players come to him, but is not so good at catching them. Either that or he's the Peter Crouch of hockey – a man whose made a career on being a giant, but possessing in reality a complement of little man skills. This was really what tipped it for O'Byrne with me. Though I don't think hits are the be all and end all that Komi does, I do think it is important not to dress 6 defencemen who shy from hard contact.
Tobalev on Gill:
Part two of the plan is the bigger and heavier Hal Gill. His size (6’7”, 250lbs.) are really the only things getting him work in this league. My memories of him are that of a pretty useless defenceman on some pretty dirty/cheap teams (save Pittsburgh). It is therefore quite surprising that he was +11 last year, but I guess we should remember that he was on the best team. The whole hockey world saw during the Pens’ playoff run what this behemoth could (and couldn’t) offer on the ice and many people saw him as a liability on that team. He was, however, used in 24 playoff games and did win a cup – those are experiences that can’t be taught.
I am glad that we are employing Gill as a #6 man as anything more would be way beyond his abilities. The upside for us is that he is big and strong and should in theory intimidate opposing forwards. He also doesn’t seem afraid to muck it up and drop them when he has to, which will also help our team. His addition should, at the very least, help us reduce chances against and will hopefully alleviate some of the fighting and hitting duties from other (smaller) players. He may chip in a few points, but as a 3rd pairing (with Mara, Spacek or Gorges) type guy all I’ll be looking for is positive play. If, for his 12-15 minutes/game, he can keep our end clear then I will start to see the value in him more and more.
Where Gill will start 2009-10: Starting lineup
Where Gill will end 2009-10: Insurance policy
Points: 2 G, 7 A, 9 Pts
Yannick Weber
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | Hits/60 | BkS/60 | GvA/60 | TkA/60 | Gv:Tk | PIM |
| 08-09 (MTL) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 5.24 | 1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 |
Stats notes
I didn't bother to run all the stats on Weber – 3 games doesn't really tell us anything. And it would be foolish to try and pick trends from the regular season and playoffs as short as they were.
If I can indulge in one point of frivolity, I'd have to say that it is a good sign that the projected offensive defenceman has already got his first NHL points and his first playoff goal. Though far from confirmation, it shows the first signs of his abilities to adapt to the higher level.
Tobalev on Weber
Do we have another Swiss (Can’t) Miss on our hands? I sure hope so. If he could be half the player that Streit was/is then we are in for a good ride (until we let him walk for nothing that is)...
Yannick really surprised a lot of people last year and it all started back in September. There was a buzz about him out of camp and he turned that into a strong start on the farm. In fact, he netted 44 points in just 68 games which is quite something for a 20 year old, let alone a defenceman. His strong play and some injuries (Markov, Schneider) meant that he finally made his way to MTL in the spring. Believe it or not he only featured in 6 games (3 of which came in the playoffs), but still managed to turn some heads. His play during that time looked alright, and he scored a goal and added 2 assists. He held his own in his our end too. Weber was a nice little bonus for Habs fans who had endured a rough 3 months.
Even so, I think that there are just too many NHL-level defencemen already in Montreal for Yannick to crack the squad this year as a regular. He will certainly get a call-up or two, but there is no point having a PP specialist in the press-box as a 7th defenceman – that position has O’Byrne written all over it. Instead he should go to Hamilton and play a lot of hockey. A spot will likely open up in Montreal in the next few years as we always seem to be rotating new PP bodies onto the blue-line anyway. I would like Yannick to work on his defensive game so that it becomes NHL-ready for when we need him. Offensively, however, he just has to stay the course – I see no issues there. Weber should put up 0.75 PPG type numbers on the farm and 0.25-0.35 PPG numbers when he is in Montreal; I just can’t foresee how much time he’ll play where.
Where Weber will start 2009-10: Hamilton
Where Weber will end 2009-10: Hamilton, with a few more games of NHL experience
Points: 3 G, 3 A, 6 Pts
I have put Gill and Weber in this category of remaining NHL defencemen for now because that is where, come season's end, I think they will be. Weber, as we said, has too many NHLers in front of him this season and will probably be in Hamilton for a big part of the season. Gill on the other hand is an able NHLer, I just feel that on versatility and potential (and a whim) that O'Byrne might work out better. Nevertheless, Gill will play, and quite a lot, quite simply because many NHLers have a very hard time the bigger the body they see in front of them (see Plekanec).
Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Canadiens Prospects and Newcomers
A few days ago, I compiled a bit of a list for you all of the players that we may never see again. From Yannick Lehoux to Alex Monahan, there will always be players who don't make the final step in their decades-long journey to the NHL. Of course, there's sympathy, but they must be proud to have even made it as far as they did and hopefully cherish the opportunity for even a single development camp if that's all they ever get.
Today, it's time for a change of gear. Time to focus on the players that the Canadiens do still have in the system. And, more interestingly, some that they have been adding.
Andreas Engqvist
By now you'll have all heard that the Canadiens have signed Andreas Engvist to a three-year deal starting this season. Reports of that are all over the web.
But unless you read Swedish, the most you can find out about this guys is that he is 6'0" tall, 200 lbs and scored a few SEL goals last year. There are videos highlighting his best moments (looking good), but we all know most players could put a highlight reel together.
I did a little more digging to come up with something extra for you all and this is what I found:
– Apparently the Canadiens have been after signing Engqvist for a while now (along with other clubs), but he's happy to sign here
–
– And the best from a very clued- in fan who saw the events in person:
"Clearly, I am way too happy to see big centermen on the ice ’cause he also impressed the hell out of me. Clearly needs to work on his foot speed. Probably amongst the big guys, the one that needs to improve the most on his overall speed, first steps and agility. But he is big, loves to implicate himself physically, loves to sit in front of the net, has some nice hands and a nice shot. I really don’t see how we will not sign him to a contract. Either it’s this year or next year, Habs NEED to make some kind of arrangements to get him here. He has a nice potential. Great size, great strength upper and lower, so beside his speed, I really don’t see how you cannot like this kid. Out of the Swedish kids, I mean today it’s no contest Engqvist way ahead of Johansson."
Development camp suite
If you are a masochist and like to watch skating drills that will tell you very little about how a player will react on the NHL ice in 5 years time, there's plenty to see on youtube. But if, like me you'd prefer not to listen to the man on the handycam, then I found a nice snippet from the CFCF evening news that's still available on their website. It doesn't give the all encompassing view that you'd have got going to the game in person, but it does give a glimpse of PK Subban in flight, some of Mac Bennett (though not enough to understand what they were on about) and Avtsyn.
The best summary I found was not from the mainstream media (though that CFCF report was a great recap), but from a fan. His whole piece of commentary can be found in English on Matthias Brunet's blog in the comments section (posted by stanley 25 at 09h51). That'll be for the most crazed among you – and I know you're out there.
Dany Masse
Dany Masse was the first free agent to get the ball rolling this year for Bob Gainey. Signed on the very eve of this season's playoffs, it was good to see Gainey scoop up a player that would have surely been given a shot somewhere else.
Looking at Dany Masse's statistics could be a bit deceiving, because although he did score 110 points with 40-odd goals in the QMJHL this year, he was a man among boys – something the 5'10" player may never e again.
But his signing was worthwhile for other reasons. For one thing, he was part of a championship team, which is always a good thing. And not just any championship team, but the team that turned last place into first with a 37-point turnaround. The lessons from that experience are surely valuable ones. For another thing, he was coached by Guy Boucher (new coach of the Bulldogs). As Dany was signed first, it may be that he already did all he needed to do with the Habs already by adding just that little extra incentive for the top junior coaching prospect in all of Canada to choose the Habs. Guy Boucher must like Masse, because, as Dany states in this interview before deciding whether to keep up with the QMJHL:
As a player, Dany is surely a big gamble. He was on the radar for NHL scouts as many as 3 years ago, but has gone undrafted in each subsequent draft. While his breakout season may be a turning point, it may simply be the exception to the rule. But as there is no harm (for the Canadiens big club, anyway) in giving this young man a chance, then I think it is certainly worth the gamble. Odds are he'll go the way of Thomas Beauregard, but if he's about to take off, then I'm glad we have his rights.
Mikael Johansson
The original Swedish free agent signing. This one happened back in May when we were all still licking our open wounds.
In many ways, he's probably the more interesting of the two new Swedes. Where Engqvist is bigger, based on the reports and the statistics he's not a top-line talent to get excited about. Johansson is the more skilled.
Mikael was also drafted – drafted by the Detroit Red Wings (which must mean something). Sure, he wasn't signed by them, but the line is that he hadn't progressed by the time contracts were being handed out. The difference now is that he has had his jump in form. Last season was the marked improvement where he doubled his goals and his points totals to find a place on scoring leaders. This season his goal totals suffered, but he was still posted the 12th most assists leaguewide (even though 28 doesn't look much).
Importantly, Johansson was also member of a championship team, as the team went through a 55-game schedule with 30 wins, 8 losses (3 in OT) and 17 ties. A most impressive season and massive improvement on the previous year.
According to his teammate on the Swedish champions Farjestad, he is skilled to the utmost degree. Fast skater, incredible hands and a catalogue of moves (you can hear all about Mikael about 2/3 of the way into this interview from SRC radio fromt he spring). According to our favourite fan at the camp, Johansson is overhyped. Apparently he looked pretty average in the scrimmage. While it may well be the case, one has to think that the Canadiens were still right to take a chance on a guy who could make the leap that Brunnstrom did last season (a player who may be labelled a bust by some, but who was probably a clip above Latendresse in scoring this season even as a rookie).
Mathieu Darche
The veritable old man in this piece, I wanted to give a nod to Mathieu Darche, my fellow Redman.
The Canadiens signed Mathieu on July 2nd, before they even put pen to paper with any of their own RFAs. In what may well be an AHL only signing, I think the Canadiens have picked up a nice piece here. And, if injuries do happen and you stare down the left wing depth chart and start to realise there isn't one, then it will be a relief to have Darche in the pocket for a call-up. After all, he has played over 100 NHL games, with one 73-game season 2 years ago. The timing of the move shows me Gainey was targeting Darche and was worried that other teams might also be interested.
I wouldn't look for him to be the star of the training camp in the fall. But the quietly effective player will be sure to keep some of the other aspiring Habs honest and at their best.
Gabriel Girard
As a final note, I wanted to mention Gabriel Girard one more time. I really think the Canadiens have a big problem in the goaltending depth column at the moment, particularly if Halak starts to make a fuss about getting traded. Nobody wants to see Cedrick Desjardins too much and after him is like staring into the abyss.
Girard did not have the best development camp (well scrimmage), but has some pedigree. His stats in Shawinigan this year were very, very impressive and he did outstanding work to press Drummondville to the very last (no small feat this year).
I hope that the next new signing I read about will be his...
Today, it's time for a change of gear. Time to focus on the players that the Canadiens do still have in the system. And, more interestingly, some that they have been adding.
Andreas Engqvist
By now you'll have all heard that the Canadiens have signed Andreas Engvist to a three-year deal starting this season. Reports of that are all over the web.
But unless you read Swedish, the most you can find out about this guys is that he is 6'0" tall, 200 lbs and scored a few SEL goals last year. There are videos highlighting his best moments (looking good), but we all know most players could put a highlight reel together.
I did a little more digging to come up with something extra for you all and this is what I found:
– Apparently the Canadiens have been after signing Engqvist for a while now (along with other clubs), but he's happy to sign here
–
– And the best from a very clued- in fan who saw the events in person:
"Clearly, I am way too happy to see big centermen on the ice ’cause he also impressed the hell out of me. Clearly needs to work on his foot speed. Probably amongst the big guys, the one that needs to improve the most on his overall speed, first steps and agility. But he is big, loves to implicate himself physically, loves to sit in front of the net, has some nice hands and a nice shot. I really don’t see how we will not sign him to a contract. Either it’s this year or next year, Habs NEED to make some kind of arrangements to get him here. He has a nice potential. Great size, great strength upper and lower, so beside his speed, I really don’t see how you cannot like this kid. Out of the Swedish kids, I mean today it’s no contest Engqvist way ahead of Johansson."
Development camp suite
If you are a masochist and like to watch skating drills that will tell you very little about how a player will react on the NHL ice in 5 years time, there's plenty to see on youtube. But if, like me you'd prefer not to listen to the man on the handycam, then I found a nice snippet from the CFCF evening news that's still available on their website. It doesn't give the all encompassing view that you'd have got going to the game in person, but it does give a glimpse of PK Subban in flight, some of Mac Bennett (though not enough to understand what they were on about) and Avtsyn.
The best summary I found was not from the mainstream media (though that CFCF report was a great recap), but from a fan. His whole piece of commentary can be found in English on Matthias Brunet's blog in the comments section (posted by stanley 25 at 09h51). That'll be for the most crazed among you – and I know you're out there.
Dany Masse
Dany Masse was the first free agent to get the ball rolling this year for Bob Gainey. Signed on the very eve of this season's playoffs, it was good to see Gainey scoop up a player that would have surely been given a shot somewhere else.
Looking at Dany Masse's statistics could be a bit deceiving, because although he did score 110 points with 40-odd goals in the QMJHL this year, he was a man among boys – something the 5'10" player may never e again.
But his signing was worthwhile for other reasons. For one thing, he was part of a championship team, which is always a good thing. And not just any championship team, but the team that turned last place into first with a 37-point turnaround. The lessons from that experience are surely valuable ones. For another thing, he was coached by Guy Boucher (new coach of the Bulldogs). As Dany was signed first, it may be that he already did all he needed to do with the Habs already by adding just that little extra incentive for the top junior coaching prospect in all of Canada to choose the Habs. Guy Boucher must like Masse, because, as Dany states in this interview before deciding whether to keep up with the QMJHL:
"He changed my mind," smiled Masse, who spent two seasons with the Titan scoring 55 goals and adding 80 assists in 139 regular season games. "I decided to go right away. I think it is the best decision I've ever made."
As a player, Dany is surely a big gamble. He was on the radar for NHL scouts as many as 3 years ago, but has gone undrafted in each subsequent draft. While his breakout season may be a turning point, it may simply be the exception to the rule. But as there is no harm (for the Canadiens big club, anyway) in giving this young man a chance, then I think it is certainly worth the gamble. Odds are he'll go the way of Thomas Beauregard, but if he's about to take off, then I'm glad we have his rights.
Mikael Johansson
The original Swedish free agent signing. This one happened back in May when we were all still licking our open wounds.
In many ways, he's probably the more interesting of the two new Swedes. Where Engqvist is bigger, based on the reports and the statistics he's not a top-line talent to get excited about. Johansson is the more skilled.
Mikael was also drafted – drafted by the Detroit Red Wings (which must mean something). Sure, he wasn't signed by them, but the line is that he hadn't progressed by the time contracts were being handed out. The difference now is that he has had his jump in form. Last season was the marked improvement where he doubled his goals and his points totals to find a place on scoring leaders. This season his goal totals suffered, but he was still posted the 12th most assists leaguewide (even though 28 doesn't look much).
Importantly, Johansson was also member of a championship team, as the team went through a 55-game schedule with 30 wins, 8 losses (3 in OT) and 17 ties. A most impressive season and massive improvement on the previous year.
According to his teammate on the Swedish champions Farjestad, he is skilled to the utmost degree. Fast skater, incredible hands and a catalogue of moves (you can hear all about Mikael about 2/3 of the way into this interview from SRC radio fromt he spring). According to our favourite fan at the camp, Johansson is overhyped. Apparently he looked pretty average in the scrimmage. While it may well be the case, one has to think that the Canadiens were still right to take a chance on a guy who could make the leap that Brunnstrom did last season (a player who may be labelled a bust by some, but who was probably a clip above Latendresse in scoring this season even as a rookie).
Mathieu Darche
The veritable old man in this piece, I wanted to give a nod to Mathieu Darche, my fellow Redman.
The Canadiens signed Mathieu on July 2nd, before they even put pen to paper with any of their own RFAs. In what may well be an AHL only signing, I think the Canadiens have picked up a nice piece here. And, if injuries do happen and you stare down the left wing depth chart and start to realise there isn't one, then it will be a relief to have Darche in the pocket for a call-up. After all, he has played over 100 NHL games, with one 73-game season 2 years ago. The timing of the move shows me Gainey was targeting Darche and was worried that other teams might also be interested.
I wouldn't look for him to be the star of the training camp in the fall. But the quietly effective player will be sure to keep some of the other aspiring Habs honest and at their best.
Gabriel Girard
As a final note, I wanted to mention Gabriel Girard one more time. I really think the Canadiens have a big problem in the goaltending depth column at the moment, particularly if Halak starts to make a fuss about getting traded. Nobody wants to see Cedrick Desjardins too much and after him is like staring into the abyss.
Girard did not have the best development camp (well scrimmage), but has some pedigree. His stats in Shawinigan this year were very, very impressive and he did outstanding work to press Drummondville to the very last (no small feat this year).
I hope that the next new signing I read about will be his...
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Lever And Wilson Dismissed
Lost in the flash and pop of the Canadiens sale was the dismissal of Don Lever and his assistant Ron Wilson from the Hamilton Bulldogs.
Some have questions. Some like Scott Radley of the Hamilton Spectator thinks the Lever move, in particular, was all wrong.
I think the moves are the right ones.
As the Hamilton article states, Lever and his staff did do a good job in Hamilton. Some would say excellent:
But forgive me Hamilton, home of many of my friends and family, neither I, nor the majority of Habs fans care the least about championships where you are. For us, that doesn't even enter into the evaluation of Don Lever and Ron Wilson. For me, I'd say there are only two questions:
1) Is he himself a coaching prospect?
2) Does he deliver top players to our club (better than his predecessors)?
I could see myself answering both questions with a yes. More worryingly, I think I could justify two nos. I don't think it would be healthy to keep either coach when he hasn't convinced everyone that he is a firm yes to each question after a four year tenure. That's why the ruthless manager, the one who does every tweak possible and within the rules to win, let two good coaches go this week.
Apparently the way it was done was succinct, even harsh, as per Lever:
I generally don't like to leave good and valued employees hanging like that. Most of the time, a dismissal is not done over the phone, let alone in under 5 minutes. But sometimes might it be better? What do I know?
After all, who really wants to hear: "We think you really stalled the development of all those offensive players we hoped would be able to score in the NHL." (that's what I assume would have been said otherwise, reading between the lines). Hopefully the Canadiens will set things straight for the two men later with some kind of wrap and some letters of recommendation.
But what it comes down to for, you see is that Don Lever and Ron Wilson were the Steve Begin and Mathieu Dandenault of coaching. Yes, they did everything that was asked of them. Yes, they did a good honest job while doing it. But they fell short in terms of the outstanding. There haven't been any Calder trophies or scoring leaders. The one all-rookie effort happened on a player sequestered from Hamilton. While there's a good chance the next coach will not be as good as Don Lever. Good at the AHL level is just that – it doesn't seem to translate. And while Calder Cups are swell, you might remember there haven't been any Cups in Montreal during their tenure in Hamilton.
Unlike Hamilton beat reporters, the Montreal Canadiens brass don't worry too too much about how the Hamilton Bulldogs fare in the regular season, or the playoffs either, I'd imagine. For Gainey and co., winning would be nice, but it must be secondary to the development of skills necessary to ply the trade at the NHL level. And while it would be unfair to say that Lever and his assistants have failed in this regard, it can't have escaped the management (or indeed most fans) that when our prospects were making the jump to the NHL they were routinely playing under their expectations – particularly from an offensive point of view. While Plekanec and Lapierre count as Lever successes, I'd be reluctant to lump either Kostitsyn under that heading. And Pacioretty, D'Agostini and most notably Kyle Chipchura have underwhelmed with their habits in the bigs.
Lever and Wilson may both be nice guys, but sooner or later you say good bye if only to try someone else who could threaten to do more.
An eye to the future
While some would infer that the change in direction Julien BriseBois speaks of is veering towards the francophone. I believe that would be a misread – even if Guy Boucher is the man on the farm come September. Especially if Guy Boucher is the man on the farm in September.
If the best way to bring in a coach is from your AHL feeder system. And, if (as we now know) the coach in Montreal will always have to speak French. Then it makes sense for the Canadiens to make this move now.
I'm a fan of Jacques Martin and I wish him the best. But this is Montreal, and unless Jacques pulls off the Dick Irvin miracle tenure, it might be a good idea to start grooming someone that we can actually hire into the big club as soon as possible. I believe that person should be Guy Boucher. So does Arpon, whose opinion I sometimes use to make sure I am not completely off the wall.
I said it before, I'll say it again. I think this new ruthless Gainey is the best thing for this club.
Some have questions. Some like Scott Radley of the Hamilton Spectator thinks the Lever move, in particular, was all wrong.
I think the moves are the right ones.
As the Hamilton article states, Lever and his staff did do a good job in Hamilton. Some would say excellent:
Since taking over the Hamilton Bulldogs four seasons ago, he brought this city its first-ever professional hockey championship by creating a game plan uniquely suited to the huge defencemen and technically-superior goalie entrusted to him that season. It's worth noting that along the way he knocked out teams coached by John Anderson and Bruce Boudreau, who both got their shots in the NHL since then.
But forgive me Hamilton, home of many of my friends and family, neither I, nor the majority of Habs fans care the least about championships where you are. For us, that doesn't even enter into the evaluation of Don Lever and Ron Wilson. For me, I'd say there are only two questions:
1) Is he himself a coaching prospect?
2) Does he deliver top players to our club (better than his predecessors)?
I could see myself answering both questions with a yes. More worryingly, I think I could justify two nos. I don't think it would be healthy to keep either coach when he hasn't convinced everyone that he is a firm yes to each question after a four year tenure. That's why the ruthless manager, the one who does every tweak possible and within the rules to win, let two good coaches go this week.
Apparently the way it was done was succinct, even harsh, as per Lever:
"They just said they were going in a different direction," he says. "It was a short phone call."
I generally don't like to leave good and valued employees hanging like that. Most of the time, a dismissal is not done over the phone, let alone in under 5 minutes. But sometimes might it be better? What do I know?
After all, who really wants to hear: "We think you really stalled the development of all those offensive players we hoped would be able to score in the NHL." (that's what I assume would have been said otherwise, reading between the lines). Hopefully the Canadiens will set things straight for the two men later with some kind of wrap and some letters of recommendation.
But what it comes down to for, you see is that Don Lever and Ron Wilson were the Steve Begin and Mathieu Dandenault of coaching. Yes, they did everything that was asked of them. Yes, they did a good honest job while doing it. But they fell short in terms of the outstanding. There haven't been any Calder trophies or scoring leaders. The one all-rookie effort happened on a player sequestered from Hamilton. While there's a good chance the next coach will not be as good as Don Lever. Good at the AHL level is just that – it doesn't seem to translate. And while Calder Cups are swell, you might remember there haven't been any Cups in Montreal during their tenure in Hamilton.
Unlike Hamilton beat reporters, the Montreal Canadiens brass don't worry too too much about how the Hamilton Bulldogs fare in the regular season, or the playoffs either, I'd imagine. For Gainey and co., winning would be nice, but it must be secondary to the development of skills necessary to ply the trade at the NHL level. And while it would be unfair to say that Lever and his assistants have failed in this regard, it can't have escaped the management (or indeed most fans) that when our prospects were making the jump to the NHL they were routinely playing under their expectations – particularly from an offensive point of view. While Plekanec and Lapierre count as Lever successes, I'd be reluctant to lump either Kostitsyn under that heading. And Pacioretty, D'Agostini and most notably Kyle Chipchura have underwhelmed with their habits in the bigs.
Lever and Wilson may both be nice guys, but sooner or later you say good bye if only to try someone else who could threaten to do more.
An eye to the future
While some would infer that the change in direction Julien BriseBois speaks of is veering towards the francophone. I believe that would be a misread – even if Guy Boucher is the man on the farm come September. Especially if Guy Boucher is the man on the farm in September.
If the best way to bring in a coach is from your AHL feeder system. And, if (as we now know) the coach in Montreal will always have to speak French. Then it makes sense for the Canadiens to make this move now.
I'm a fan of Jacques Martin and I wish him the best. But this is Montreal, and unless Jacques pulls off the Dick Irvin miracle tenure, it might be a good idea to start grooming someone that we can actually hire into the big club as soon as possible. I believe that person should be Guy Boucher. So does Arpon, whose opinion I sometimes use to make sure I am not completely off the wall.
I said it before, I'll say it again. I think this new ruthless Gainey is the best thing for this club.
Friday, May 08, 2009
Carey Price: Thoroughbred In The Gates?
At his press conference, Bob Gainey was asked why he kept turning to Carey Price, despite the fact that the reporter, his wife, and a multitude of fans thought an alternative approach was called for.
Bob, finding a chance to wriggle out of the question, decided to make jokes about the reporter's wife. Laughter ensued and lost in the analysis was his response.
His response, after his joke, was that Carey Price is, and I quote, "a thoroughbred". The other part of the answer was that Bob made this decision more than a year ago when he decided to trade Cristobal Huet.
It seems that one decision carries a lot of weight in this organisation as Gainey is prepared to stick by it regardless of what fans think, regardless of wins and losses and regardless of other players' careers being trampled in the process.
This is all well and good and maybe Bob Gainey is right.
But here at Lions in Winter, we are not as easy to please as most, nor do we just roll over in the face of a good old debate. We think (and you'll know that if you're a regular reader) that there is certainly a reasonable margin of doubt as to what Gainey has to say about his protege is accurate, and we're going to put forward our case for consideration.
Since this is a big issue and we have plenty of time before the next game, I have decided to portion out this argument into segments.
The first question I want to deal with is whether Carey Price is or isn't a thoroughbred at all. I have scoured some stats to come up with my side of the argument and I expected to meet some resistance in the comments (which I welcome).
The second topic I want to address is the way that Carey has been handled by the organization; and, moreover, how drafting Carey Price in 2005 has affected how every other player in the organization is handled.
Finally, the third segment deals with the practicalities of dealing with the seemingly inevitable – that is having Carey price as our starting goalie for the next 5 years. Here things like veteran back-ups, shoring up the defence and strategy adjustments are presented.
[I'll keep this post at the top of the blog until all sections are complete and update the links when available. Hope you enjoy.]
As an aside, I thought with all the attention on the young man, there would be some calls for us to cease and desist as there usually are. In anticipation of this I offer:
Is Lions in Winter out to get Carey Price?
The simple answer is no.
The minute a player steps onto the ice for a competitive game in the uniform we love, we support that player. We support this team to win.
It is the very same with Carey Price. When Carey starts a game we very much hope for a shutout each time out. We cheer his saves and wish him on.
It has to be said that we created a bit of a monster with the dome when we set it up – particularly the goalies. Unlike other blogs, we have a requirement to address the goaltending in a specific section 86 times a season – which means that goalies seem to be garnering a whole lot of attention. Such is the position, we say. You need a goalie for every game; that one player is on the ice for 60 minutes; so it seems natural to us that he get a lot of attention.
We also made a choice early on (despite comments that thought we were being ridiculous): to use the dome position to put in the back-up when we felt the goalie had a bad game. So when Carey Price lets in 2 bad goals in a loss and we put Halak in the dome, it simply means Carey Price had a bad game in our estimation and the other guy (whoever it is) gets the mention. This goalie selection for the dome has already been the focal point for so many good comments and stimulated the best discussions, that it would be a shame to get rid of it – even at the risk of seeming entrenched on positions at times.
Outside the game reports, Carey has had a lot of the spotlight, but in our defence it was not brought on by us alone. All I've ever wanted is to open the discourse on the seemingly closed book about Price being can't miss in this league. That's not to say I don't think he's the closest thing to can't miss that we currently have, or have had in a decade. And it is the golden ticket issued to Price that we take most issue with, not his worthiness for the Sainte Flanelle.
All that said, this latest piece is what we call an elephant in the room – we just feel someone needed to talk about it. I invite you to join in as you will.
Bob, finding a chance to wriggle out of the question, decided to make jokes about the reporter's wife. Laughter ensued and lost in the analysis was his response.
His response, after his joke, was that Carey Price is, and I quote, "a thoroughbred". The other part of the answer was that Bob made this decision more than a year ago when he decided to trade Cristobal Huet.
It seems that one decision carries a lot of weight in this organisation as Gainey is prepared to stick by it regardless of what fans think, regardless of wins and losses and regardless of other players' careers being trampled in the process.
This is all well and good and maybe Bob Gainey is right.
But here at Lions in Winter, we are not as easy to please as most, nor do we just roll over in the face of a good old debate. We think (and you'll know that if you're a regular reader) that there is certainly a reasonable margin of doubt as to what Gainey has to say about his protege is accurate, and we're going to put forward our case for consideration.
Since this is a big issue and we have plenty of time before the next game, I have decided to portion out this argument into segments.
The first question I want to deal with is whether Carey Price is or isn't a thoroughbred at all. I have scoured some stats to come up with my side of the argument and I expected to meet some resistance in the comments (which I welcome).
The second topic I want to address is the way that Carey has been handled by the organization; and, moreover, how drafting Carey Price in 2005 has affected how every other player in the organization is handled.
Finally, the third segment deals with the practicalities of dealing with the seemingly inevitable – that is having Carey price as our starting goalie for the next 5 years. Here things like veteran back-ups, shoring up the defence and strategy adjustments are presented.
[I'll keep this post at the top of the blog until all sections are complete and update the links when available. Hope you enjoy.]
As an aside, I thought with all the attention on the young man, there would be some calls for us to cease and desist as there usually are. In anticipation of this I offer:
Is Lions in Winter out to get Carey Price?
The simple answer is no.
The minute a player steps onto the ice for a competitive game in the uniform we love, we support that player. We support this team to win.
It is the very same with Carey Price. When Carey starts a game we very much hope for a shutout each time out. We cheer his saves and wish him on.
It has to be said that we created a bit of a monster with the dome when we set it up – particularly the goalies. Unlike other blogs, we have a requirement to address the goaltending in a specific section 86 times a season – which means that goalies seem to be garnering a whole lot of attention. Such is the position, we say. You need a goalie for every game; that one player is on the ice for 60 minutes; so it seems natural to us that he get a lot of attention.
We also made a choice early on (despite comments that thought we were being ridiculous): to use the dome position to put in the back-up when we felt the goalie had a bad game. So when Carey Price lets in 2 bad goals in a loss and we put Halak in the dome, it simply means Carey Price had a bad game in our estimation and the other guy (whoever it is) gets the mention. This goalie selection for the dome has already been the focal point for so many good comments and stimulated the best discussions, that it would be a shame to get rid of it – even at the risk of seeming entrenched on positions at times.
Outside the game reports, Carey has had a lot of the spotlight, but in our defence it was not brought on by us alone. All I've ever wanted is to open the discourse on the seemingly closed book about Price being can't miss in this league. That's not to say I don't think he's the closest thing to can't miss that we currently have, or have had in a decade. And it is the golden ticket issued to Price that we take most issue with, not his worthiness for the Sainte Flanelle.
All that said, this latest piece is what we call an elephant in the room – we just feel someone needed to talk about it. I invite you to join in as you will.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Something Positive
In Stewart We Add One Helluva Player
Gone amiss in all the orchestrated confusion was the promotion of Greg Stewart yesterday afternoon. I read somewhere that Carbonneau personally requested Greg Stewart to bolster his forces – maybe the man does have some sense.
Privately (and Tobalev will tell you), I have been asking for the Stewart promotion from the very first time I saw him. I thought he should make the team in October (from his review):
Why I like him
I'll tell you why I like him. There are two reasons.
The first is this:
For all the Laraques in the world, you'd have never seen this fight. Stewart stood up to a true jerk and a cocky vet who thought he could get away with picking on a rookie. The way he punched was the only reason fighting should be allowed (to settle real game-derived disputes), and the way his teammates applauded is marked next to the indifference Laraque provokes.
Stewart would be scarier than Laraque because a) he would stand up for his teammates no matter what and b) he could fight anyone he liked (moreover disliked).
The second reason I like him is because he can play. Not only that he is puck hungry. When he doesn't have the puck he fights to get it, he plans to get it, and often he gets it. His hits are not for the end of year tallies, they are for the pursuit of that small rubber disc.
Not only is he puck hungry, but he can protect the puck with his body and as he showed with his single (yet brilliant) assist this season he is aware of his teammates while he does all this.
If he had soft hands in the least, there would be no Guillaume Latendresse in Habs lore. He doesn't, but he still merits his place.
Pedigree
Or perhaps: Petergree.
Being a member of the Peterborough Petes is to the OHL what being a member of the Montreal Canadiens was to hockey.
- They began as a farm team for the Montreal Canadiens in 1956
– It is the oldest continuous franchise in the CHL
- They have won a record 8 Memorial Cups in 53 years
– They are known as a “Junior Hockey Factory”: producing a record number of NHL players, including Eric and Jordan Staal, Chris Pronger, Mike Ricci, Steve Yzerman, Doug Jarvis and of course Bob Gainey
– Coaches of the Petes include top NHL coaches Roger Neilson, Mike Keenan and Scotty Bowman
That ain't no joke.
Greg Stewart didn't put up incredible numbers in junior, but being a contributing member of the Petes was probably enough to get him drafted. The fact he won a Memorial Cup as a veteran junior two years after being drafted was a certain bonus for the Habs. As usual, he didn't do the heavy lifting. but as we know champions take many shapes and sizes.
His coach then, a Petes legend himself Dick Todd, had this to say of Greg:
Rare Canadian find
If as Mike Boone so eagerly writes, the Canadiens are de-Russifying their team, then they had better hope that they turn up a few more Stewarts than they currently do.
Greg is a notable exception in an otherwise dismal record of finding and developing Canadian talent.
Timmins has selected 23 Canadian players since his hiring. If you exclude Carey Price (who was a lucky dip for the Habs with an unearned 5th overall pick) then you're looking at Lapierre, Latendresse, O'Byrne, D'Agostini and Chipchura from that span. With the exception of Lapierre, who plays like he deserves a place, the other players still have question marks over their NHL careers, let alone stardom.
Talk of Detroit often comes around to the success of late round scouting and picks. But while Timmins can poach Europeans late (Streit, Halak and S Kostitsyn), Stewart stands as the very rare Canadian (indeed North American) to play any important hockey from among 7 players. The rest are absolute duds.
Look forward to Stewart tonight. He brings quality with his grit. It's great to see.
Privately (and Tobalev will tell you), I have been asking for the Stewart promotion from the very first time I saw him. I thought he should make the team in October (from his review):
Personally, I'd have Stewart in the team set up. 10 goals in Hamilton prove he is no passenger and one game in Montreal showed me he is hyped to play in the bigs. As poor Steve Begin falls apart bit by bit due to his rugged approach, it will be nice to have Stewart there to step in and offer a spark plug of comparable energy
Why I like him
I'll tell you why I like him. There are two reasons.
The first is this:
For all the Laraques in the world, you'd have never seen this fight. Stewart stood up to a true jerk and a cocky vet who thought he could get away with picking on a rookie. The way he punched was the only reason fighting should be allowed (to settle real game-derived disputes), and the way his teammates applauded is marked next to the indifference Laraque provokes.
Stewart would be scarier than Laraque because a) he would stand up for his teammates no matter what and b) he could fight anyone he liked (moreover disliked).
The second reason I like him is because he can play. Not only that he is puck hungry. When he doesn't have the puck he fights to get it, he plans to get it, and often he gets it. His hits are not for the end of year tallies, they are for the pursuit of that small rubber disc.
Not only is he puck hungry, but he can protect the puck with his body and as he showed with his single (yet brilliant) assist this season he is aware of his teammates while he does all this.
If he had soft hands in the least, there would be no Guillaume Latendresse in Habs lore. He doesn't, but he still merits his place.
Pedigree
Or perhaps: Petergree.
Being a member of the Peterborough Petes is to the OHL what being a member of the Montreal Canadiens was to hockey.
- They began as a farm team for the Montreal Canadiens in 1956
– It is the oldest continuous franchise in the CHL
- They have won a record 8 Memorial Cups in 53 years
– They are known as a “Junior Hockey Factory”: producing a record number of NHL players, including Eric and Jordan Staal, Chris Pronger, Mike Ricci, Steve Yzerman, Doug Jarvis and of course Bob Gainey
– Coaches of the Petes include top NHL coaches Roger Neilson, Mike Keenan and Scotty Bowman
That ain't no joke.
Greg Stewart didn't put up incredible numbers in junior, but being a contributing member of the Petes was probably enough to get him drafted. The fact he won a Memorial Cup as a veteran junior two years after being drafted was a certain bonus for the Habs. As usual, he didn't do the heavy lifting. but as we know champions take many shapes and sizes.
His coach then, a Petes legend himself Dick Todd, had this to say of Greg:
“When I took over last year they raved about his conditioning and strength,” Petes coach Dick Todd told Hockey’s Future this week. “Usually the draft is so well documented that you don’t get quality players later in the draft coming to junior so he was a pleasant surprise to the hockey club when they got him."
Rare Canadian find
If as Mike Boone so eagerly writes, the Canadiens are de-Russifying their team, then they had better hope that they turn up a few more Stewarts than they currently do.
Greg is a notable exception in an otherwise dismal record of finding and developing Canadian talent.
Timmins has selected 23 Canadian players since his hiring. If you exclude Carey Price (who was a lucky dip for the Habs with an unearned 5th overall pick) then you're looking at Lapierre, Latendresse, O'Byrne, D'Agostini and Chipchura from that span. With the exception of Lapierre, who plays like he deserves a place, the other players still have question marks over their NHL careers, let alone stardom.
Talk of Detroit often comes around to the success of late round scouting and picks. But while Timmins can poach Europeans late (Streit, Halak and S Kostitsyn), Stewart stands as the very rare Canadian (indeed North American) to play any important hockey from among 7 players. The rest are absolute duds.
Look forward to Stewart tonight. He brings quality with his grit. It's great to see.
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
Very Interesting Post
JT at The H Does Not Stand For Habs had a bit of a coup with this piece.
It's the most interesting stuff I've read from Gainey in years. It's so interesting, I almost question whether the monosyllabic man actually said these things. Then, I know the charms of Newfoundland can bring the gift of the gab to even the quietest folk.
For me the most interesting bits were:
I can't argue with trading Huet to the least threatening team (the other must have been Ottawa). But I still don't buy the old party line. So no free pass for Gainey here. He did lose Huet for nothing. Or as you know a 2% chance of something in 6 years time.
No kidding. No Kostitsyns, no Plekanecs, no Prices. Time to make hay while the sun is shining boys...
It's the most interesting stuff I've read from Gainey in years. It's so interesting, I almost question whether the monosyllabic man actually said these things. Then, I know the charms of Newfoundland can bring the gift of the gab to even the quietest folk.
For me the most interesting bits were:
On trading Huet
-Gainey joked "Let's see...what did happen with that one?" Then he said he felt that Carey Price was ready to get some experience as the number one goalie, including playoffs. He knew Huet would not be re-signing in Montreal, and decided to make the trade to avoid losing Huet for nothing. He said there were two teams interested in Huet, but Gainey chose Washington because it was the team less likely to be a threat to the Canadiens after acquring Huet.
I can't argue with trading Huet to the least threatening team (the other must have been Ottawa). But I still don't buy the old party line. So no free pass for Gainey here. He did lose Huet for nothing. Or as you know a 2% chance of something in 6 years time.
On the prospects
-Gainey is happy with the number of players on the roster now that the team has drafted and developed, but he says we're looking at a vacuum for a couple of years before the next crop of players is ready.
No kidding. No Kostitsyns, no Plekanecs, no Prices. Time to make hay while the sun is shining boys...
Monday, August 11, 2008
When Is The Best Time To Trade/Trade For A Star?
With the Olympics underway, there is admittedly less all-out focus on hockey for the time being here at Lions in Winter. We are, however,always on the lookout for something to comment on and discuss.
The other day as I was scanning some of my usual corners of the internet, I came across a great title for a piece by Spector on his blog: "When’s the Best Time to Trade/Trade for An NHL Star?"
Spector talks about the Bouwmeester case prompted him to post on this topic. Let me tell you, it shows. It should have been titled: "When is the best time to trade Bouwmeester?" or "Should Jacques Martin trade Bouwmeester?". As such, i don't feel so bad for taking his title (almost) and expanding on the issue to the point which I would have liked to have seen it discussed myself.
Sure, trading is down in the NHL. That is a fact. But, that doesn't mean we have to be resigned that our GM should follow the example of Florida's stumbling example. Personally, I don't think trading is outmoded either. A good GM for example can still exploit a weak GM in the right circumstances, even in the salary cap world, even (heaven forbid) outside of the two weeks that precede and incorporate the trade deadline. For me the matter is academic – there are certain factors that dictate the laws of the trade and these have nothing to do with Bouwmeester or how many defencemen Florida have or want.
Of course, any assessment of the timing of trades will be subjective. However, I like to think that the way I think about it is a little more scientific than waiting for the trade deadline...
Elements of trading
The first thing to understand in trading is that trades are completed based largely on perceptions – not necessarily on facts. A GM will inevitably watch his own team play more than any other. He will only have access to the current practice and training of his own team. In this way, the home GM will always have an advantage over his trading partner when it comes to his own player. This is especially true for the youngest players who have had less exposure around the league. Whereas an older player may have played 500+ games, played for multiple teams and been exposed to many of the league's GMs; a young prospect is really only known by the organisation in which he plays.
If a prospect is making giant strides, chances are the value in a trade would be low (see Brad Boyes). On the flip side, if a prospect is showing signs of dropping below expectations for himself, then the value to the home team could be increased in a trade. From my point of view, the first rule of trading is always to ship out players who are perceived to be better across the league at large than in the organisation. My classic example of this would be the big player that some GMs (see Bob Clarke) would drastically overvalue.
Trading a star can be tricky here as lots is generally known about that player, but it can be done. However, this kind of thinking can help you land a star for a lower price. A recent favourite here was the Alex Kovalev trade. Bob Gainey masterfully offered one of a group of prospects to the Rangers, including the Hamilton's leading scorer Josef Balej. The Rangers falling into the classic trap of unfamiliarity with the goods opted for Balej instead of Plekanec. Now, I don't know how the negotiation went, but by offering the offensive "jewel" of the organisation at the time, Gainey played on perceptions very well. Obviously, Balej never made an impact and Kovalev just had his most impressive all-around campaign. We won the trade in a landslide. Nice payback on NYC who pulled this overrated prospect stunt on the Expos two or three times a season.
The next element in any trade, I think, is realising that every NHL player will be trending. That is to say that a player will either be improving, remaining stable or getting worse. This is another bit of knowledge that only the home GM can know (at least at first).
To take advantage of the trending, ideally, a GM must trade a falling star before the rest of the league knows he is falling. This is a difficult one, since just offering a star for trade would raise suspicions in even the most amateur of GMs, I would think. The art here would be to get the other GM to ask you about the falling star – make him think it's his idea. In my opinion, this is an art that few GMs seem to have been able to master over the last few years. How Joe Thornton for example could fetch such a pathetic return can only be explained by the hesitation with which he was dealt with. Ditto for many Canadiens trades in the dark days of Rejean Houle, where all the world would know about the problems before we got the 4th round pick back for our captain.
A rule for trading, for me, is trading a player at peak value. The cardinal sin is trading them at the lowest ebb. Being a realist (even back in 2002), it occurred to me that the Canadiens' Jose Theodore probably overachieved. What's more his two trophies and undue credit for beating the Bruins in what was actually a fairly high-scoring series on the whole, made his value immense. If a GM thinking as I did had received a call for Jose's services and accepted, I am quite sure we'd be enjoying watching a decent goalscorer instead of remembering our suffering through David Aebischer.
Of course, in trades, there is also the element of organisational need . Trading from a position of need (after injury, for example) can be very costly. Whereas, trading with a partner who can only see their own current need can be very fruitful. When Nashville needed a star centre to put them over the top a couple of years ago, Philadelphia picked their pockets clean. Based on Nashville's experience, I wouldn't be trading for a star at the deadline. On the other hand, if you can find your Nashville to trade with, trade a star, by all means.
Contract status has always been a major factor too. In my opinion, free agency is still the number one problem here. The salary cap is a hassle for sure, but can be dealt with – at any time. Trading a player in the last year of the contract diminishes the value. This is certainly true the more games go by. By the trade deadline, you are talking about trading the player for 15 games and playoffs. History has shown that people won't pay as much for these players – unless, unless, unless they sense they are filling a great need (see Nashville). If the player is on an overvalued contract, waiting may be the only way to ship him, mind you (Bill Guerin), but most legitimate stars don't fit into this category.
The final factor for me is "short memory". Look across the league over the years and you'll see plenty of examples of short memory among GMs. A player after a good playoffs will carry amazing value for the summer for example. A player off to a poor start in the fall/winter may drop in value by a good prospect or two in return. Playoffs are the best at generating short memory gains. Trading for the playoff hero, in my opinion, is a daft move for 25 out of 30 teams in the league. yet, most GMs covet these players, nonetheless. Many of these examples manifest themselves in ridiculous signings rather than trades, but short memory plays a part in trades too. Going for someone who is already considered a star after a great playoff run might be OK, but trading for someone who isn't generally a star at this point is generally a move to be rued later on. Trading for someone who has had a bad stretch could land you a bargain, however (Erik Cole).
So when should a trade involving a star be made?
If you're a GM and looking to trade a star for another star, some key players or just prospects, I would focus on an in-season trade. Assuming your star is a consistent contributor with an established reputation (i.e., not Ribeiro), then your trade should be timed to maximise the return you can get. You will want to make sure you have proper recent scouting of the the team you are trading with (preferably NHL game action) and that you have a feel for trends and historical play as well as short-term success.
Probably the major factor by which you can ramp up your return is by targeting a team with need. From the point of view of need, the trade deadline can provide some of the very best opportunities to trade, given you have the right commodity. (If you are unfortunate enough to have a star who is the wrong commodity – goaltender 2008 – then you are barking up the wrong tree at the trade deadline with a trade). However, I happen to think that you will find more potential trade partners and just as much sense of need if you target January as the trade month. Teams desperate to make the playoffs will perhaps be hasty in giving away too much, and championship-hungry teams are always on the look out for stars, no matter what time of year.
If you're a GM trying to acquire a star, you need to be a bit more wily. Naturally, don't play into the other GM's hands by giving opportunity to scout properly, see your players or all that good stuff mentioned above.
If you're trading for a true star, one whose value is unlikely to fluctuate significantly, then I would do it in the summer. You can package one of your recent draft picks, a prospect who is not progressing as expected or hoped or someone whose lasting memory of the past season was playoff overachievement (Umberger). I'm happy to say, this is what Bob Gainey managed to achieve in his Tanguay deal – taking advantage of salary concerns and an overvaluation of the draft pool (in all likelihood) to land a consistent star.
Middle ground
Given the two windows of opportunity, you'd expect the GMs of the league to find some middle ground. if they did, we'd see some trades from October to December time. We don't. Why is this?
I think one factor is that GMs are generally not looking to make trades as it makes their lives more complicated. Why saddle yourself with a salary issue – it only makes more work. Considering that many GMs are also horrendous judges of talent (see the free agent signings this year), it makes sense that they would procrastinate until the very last second.
Another reason for this is the inconsequential nature of the NHL season. Why would a team bother to challenge Detroit in December and January when winning the league is so meaningless? History will show chemistry is the answer, but these guys have no memory for history, remember?
Mastering the trade
In those simple scenarios, the answer seems relatively simple. However, as we all know, things are rarely so simple. Most of the time, for instance, the star in question will not be a stable producer, but will be trending up or down. Most of the time, the perception of his value will be higher or lower than his own GM's assessment around the league. Mastering the trade requires mastering the art of anticipation, combined with a good eye for talent (and lack of it).
In fact, while trading a star or for a star can be beneficial, the trades that become landslides are often the unexpected ones. What's more, these trades should not be as restrictive as trades involving stars. These are the trades where rising stars are targeted, or falling stars are turned for a profit. The margin for a win in these exchanges is huge.
If anything, I would argue that these trades must not be done anywhere near the deadline. The deadline is a too cluttered for people thinking about trading their minor players. Owners either want to save a few million in the close of the season, or want to make a big impression with their fans for marketing in th playoffs. These are homework trades and should be happening from now until January. Again, they aren't. Probably for the same reasons as stated above.
Back to the Olympics, and I begin to realise that pursuit of excellence is a full-time job. There are no summer holidays, no off-seasons. To think that building a dynasty in these times is impossible is the same closed-mindedness that makes you skip your 2-minute race for fear that you'll be too tired for your 1-minute race. The excellent pursue excellence in all areas of what they do. The New England Patriots have proven that salary caps do not preclude dynasties. The Detroit Red Wings are making the case that hockey is not some special exception to that rule.
As with many facets of team management post-salary cap, trading is an area that remains to be exploited. There is no good reason why a "good" GM shouldn't be looking for trades all season long and well into the summer. I hope, as with all things, that the Canadiens are one of the first teams to step up to take advantage of other teams in this way. Sign and trade Mats Sundin? Trade a young winger? Trade some of those Minnesota Dmen? Wait to see how things develop and we'll be just like the rest – behind the eight ball (read Detroit) – again.
The other day as I was scanning some of my usual corners of the internet, I came across a great title for a piece by Spector on his blog: "When’s the Best Time to Trade/Trade for An NHL Star?"
Spector talks about the Bouwmeester case prompted him to post on this topic. Let me tell you, it shows. It should have been titled: "When is the best time to trade Bouwmeester?" or "Should Jacques Martin trade Bouwmeester?". As such, i don't feel so bad for taking his title (almost) and expanding on the issue to the point which I would have liked to have seen it discussed myself.
Sure, trading is down in the NHL. That is a fact. But, that doesn't mean we have to be resigned that our GM should follow the example of Florida's stumbling example. Personally, I don't think trading is outmoded either. A good GM for example can still exploit a weak GM in the right circumstances, even in the salary cap world, even (heaven forbid) outside of the two weeks that precede and incorporate the trade deadline. For me the matter is academic – there are certain factors that dictate the laws of the trade and these have nothing to do with Bouwmeester or how many defencemen Florida have or want.
Of course, any assessment of the timing of trades will be subjective. However, I like to think that the way I think about it is a little more scientific than waiting for the trade deadline...
Elements of trading
The first thing to understand in trading is that trades are completed based largely on perceptions – not necessarily on facts. A GM will inevitably watch his own team play more than any other. He will only have access to the current practice and training of his own team. In this way, the home GM will always have an advantage over his trading partner when it comes to his own player. This is especially true for the youngest players who have had less exposure around the league. Whereas an older player may have played 500+ games, played for multiple teams and been exposed to many of the league's GMs; a young prospect is really only known by the organisation in which he plays.
If a prospect is making giant strides, chances are the value in a trade would be low (see Brad Boyes). On the flip side, if a prospect is showing signs of dropping below expectations for himself, then the value to the home team could be increased in a trade. From my point of view, the first rule of trading is always to ship out players who are perceived to be better across the league at large than in the organisation. My classic example of this would be the big player that some GMs (see Bob Clarke) would drastically overvalue.
Trading a star can be tricky here as lots is generally known about that player, but it can be done. However, this kind of thinking can help you land a star for a lower price. A recent favourite here was the Alex Kovalev trade. Bob Gainey masterfully offered one of a group of prospects to the Rangers, including the Hamilton's leading scorer Josef Balej. The Rangers falling into the classic trap of unfamiliarity with the goods opted for Balej instead of Plekanec. Now, I don't know how the negotiation went, but by offering the offensive "jewel" of the organisation at the time, Gainey played on perceptions very well. Obviously, Balej never made an impact and Kovalev just had his most impressive all-around campaign. We won the trade in a landslide. Nice payback on NYC who pulled this overrated prospect stunt on the Expos two or three times a season.
The next element in any trade, I think, is realising that every NHL player will be trending. That is to say that a player will either be improving, remaining stable or getting worse. This is another bit of knowledge that only the home GM can know (at least at first).
To take advantage of the trending, ideally, a GM must trade a falling star before the rest of the league knows he is falling. This is a difficult one, since just offering a star for trade would raise suspicions in even the most amateur of GMs, I would think. The art here would be to get the other GM to ask you about the falling star – make him think it's his idea. In my opinion, this is an art that few GMs seem to have been able to master over the last few years. How Joe Thornton for example could fetch such a pathetic return can only be explained by the hesitation with which he was dealt with. Ditto for many Canadiens trades in the dark days of Rejean Houle, where all the world would know about the problems before we got the 4th round pick back for our captain.
A rule for trading, for me, is trading a player at peak value. The cardinal sin is trading them at the lowest ebb. Being a realist (even back in 2002), it occurred to me that the Canadiens' Jose Theodore probably overachieved. What's more his two trophies and undue credit for beating the Bruins in what was actually a fairly high-scoring series on the whole, made his value immense. If a GM thinking as I did had received a call for Jose's services and accepted, I am quite sure we'd be enjoying watching a decent goalscorer instead of remembering our suffering through David Aebischer.
Of course, in trades, there is also the element of organisational need . Trading from a position of need (after injury, for example) can be very costly. Whereas, trading with a partner who can only see their own current need can be very fruitful. When Nashville needed a star centre to put them over the top a couple of years ago, Philadelphia picked their pockets clean. Based on Nashville's experience, I wouldn't be trading for a star at the deadline. On the other hand, if you can find your Nashville to trade with, trade a star, by all means.
Contract status has always been a major factor too. In my opinion, free agency is still the number one problem here. The salary cap is a hassle for sure, but can be dealt with – at any time. Trading a player in the last year of the contract diminishes the value. This is certainly true the more games go by. By the trade deadline, you are talking about trading the player for 15 games and playoffs. History has shown that people won't pay as much for these players – unless, unless, unless they sense they are filling a great need (see Nashville). If the player is on an overvalued contract, waiting may be the only way to ship him, mind you (Bill Guerin), but most legitimate stars don't fit into this category.
The final factor for me is "short memory". Look across the league over the years and you'll see plenty of examples of short memory among GMs. A player after a good playoffs will carry amazing value for the summer for example. A player off to a poor start in the fall/winter may drop in value by a good prospect or two in return. Playoffs are the best at generating short memory gains. Trading for the playoff hero, in my opinion, is a daft move for 25 out of 30 teams in the league. yet, most GMs covet these players, nonetheless. Many of these examples manifest themselves in ridiculous signings rather than trades, but short memory plays a part in trades too. Going for someone who is already considered a star after a great playoff run might be OK, but trading for someone who isn't generally a star at this point is generally a move to be rued later on. Trading for someone who has had a bad stretch could land you a bargain, however (Erik Cole).
So when should a trade involving a star be made?
If you're a GM and looking to trade a star for another star, some key players or just prospects, I would focus on an in-season trade. Assuming your star is a consistent contributor with an established reputation (i.e., not Ribeiro), then your trade should be timed to maximise the return you can get. You will want to make sure you have proper recent scouting of the the team you are trading with (preferably NHL game action) and that you have a feel for trends and historical play as well as short-term success.
Probably the major factor by which you can ramp up your return is by targeting a team with need. From the point of view of need, the trade deadline can provide some of the very best opportunities to trade, given you have the right commodity. (If you are unfortunate enough to have a star who is the wrong commodity – goaltender 2008 – then you are barking up the wrong tree at the trade deadline with a trade). However, I happen to think that you will find more potential trade partners and just as much sense of need if you target January as the trade month. Teams desperate to make the playoffs will perhaps be hasty in giving away too much, and championship-hungry teams are always on the look out for stars, no matter what time of year.
If you're a GM trying to acquire a star, you need to be a bit more wily. Naturally, don't play into the other GM's hands by giving opportunity to scout properly, see your players or all that good stuff mentioned above.
If you're trading for a true star, one whose value is unlikely to fluctuate significantly, then I would do it in the summer. You can package one of your recent draft picks, a prospect who is not progressing as expected or hoped or someone whose lasting memory of the past season was playoff overachievement (Umberger). I'm happy to say, this is what Bob Gainey managed to achieve in his Tanguay deal – taking advantage of salary concerns and an overvaluation of the draft pool (in all likelihood) to land a consistent star.
Middle ground
Given the two windows of opportunity, you'd expect the GMs of the league to find some middle ground. if they did, we'd see some trades from October to December time. We don't. Why is this?
I think one factor is that GMs are generally not looking to make trades as it makes their lives more complicated. Why saddle yourself with a salary issue – it only makes more work. Considering that many GMs are also horrendous judges of talent (see the free agent signings this year), it makes sense that they would procrastinate until the very last second.
Another reason for this is the inconsequential nature of the NHL season. Why would a team bother to challenge Detroit in December and January when winning the league is so meaningless? History will show chemistry is the answer, but these guys have no memory for history, remember?
Mastering the trade
In those simple scenarios, the answer seems relatively simple. However, as we all know, things are rarely so simple. Most of the time, for instance, the star in question will not be a stable producer, but will be trending up or down. Most of the time, the perception of his value will be higher or lower than his own GM's assessment around the league. Mastering the trade requires mastering the art of anticipation, combined with a good eye for talent (and lack of it).
In fact, while trading a star or for a star can be beneficial, the trades that become landslides are often the unexpected ones. What's more, these trades should not be as restrictive as trades involving stars. These are the trades where rising stars are targeted, or falling stars are turned for a profit. The margin for a win in these exchanges is huge.
If anything, I would argue that these trades must not be done anywhere near the deadline. The deadline is a too cluttered for people thinking about trading their minor players. Owners either want to save a few million in the close of the season, or want to make a big impression with their fans for marketing in th playoffs. These are homework trades and should be happening from now until January. Again, they aren't. Probably for the same reasons as stated above.
Back to the Olympics, and I begin to realise that pursuit of excellence is a full-time job. There are no summer holidays, no off-seasons. To think that building a dynasty in these times is impossible is the same closed-mindedness that makes you skip your 2-minute race for fear that you'll be too tired for your 1-minute race. The excellent pursue excellence in all areas of what they do. The New England Patriots have proven that salary caps do not preclude dynasties. The Detroit Red Wings are making the case that hockey is not some special exception to that rule.
As with many facets of team management post-salary cap, trading is an area that remains to be exploited. There is no good reason why a "good" GM shouldn't be looking for trades all season long and well into the summer. I hope, as with all things, that the Canadiens are one of the first teams to step up to take advantage of other teams in this way. Sign and trade Mats Sundin? Trade a young winger? Trade some of those Minnesota Dmen? Wait to see how things develop and we'll be just like the rest – behind the eight ball (read Detroit) – again.
Monday, October 15, 2007
The Habs future and the two Andreis – Part 2: Andrei the Younger
As I said in Part 1: Andrei the First, the Habs bandwagon is chugging along. And while many have a temporary fixation with the Long Island boys and a certain young goaltender, there are two Andreis who I feel will play an enormous part in the future success or failure of this team.
For Part 2, I will examine the mysterious and mysteriously overlooked prospect that is Andrei the Younger, or Kostit the Elder if you like. As Markov will have to be Doug Harvey to Price's Plante; Andrei Kostitsyn will have to play the role of offensive stalwart Dickie Moore.
Born in the USSR – like Markov – in 1985, Andrei Kostitsyn did most of his growing up in the new country of Belarus. Hi formative hockey years were also spent in Belarus, where he played in the Belarusian league, subsequently moving to his hometown club of Novopolotsk in a junior-level Russian league. After putting up excellent stats at both these levels he eventually made the move to CSKA in Moscow, where he played on their teams at various levels of Russian league play. He would eventually stick with the senior team at the CSKA club by the latter portion of the 2002-2003 season, the year he was drafted.
Kostitsyn's story leading up to the 2003 NHL entry draft, however, is not one that can be told by stats alone. Much like Anze Kopitar, he had really emerged from a country that up until the mid-90s had been a real hockey backwater. While he had impressive stats in Belarusian play, there was no benchmark for this. His play at CSKA was too limited and brief to result in bags of goals.
So why so highly touted?
Well, for one thing, his play at WJCs and under-18s for Belarus showed that when he was placed in a dominant role on a team, he responded with production. Besides that, it was the way he scored, shot and skated that made him a hot commodity.
When the Canadiens selected Andrei Kostitsyn 10th overall in the 2003 draft, there was a very mixed response. 2003, afterall, was as deep as drafts get in the first round. Before him: Fleury, Staal, Horton, Zherdev, Vanek, Michalek, Suter, Coburn, Phaneuf. After him: Getzlaf, Perry and Parise. But on the day, general consensus was a great gamble. For Kostitsyn has epilepsy, which made the teams that chose Michalek, Suter, Coburn and Phaneuf stay away. Many scouts, including Timmins had in as a top 5 talent – which obviously says a lot among those players.
What exactly are these talents then? Well, I've noticed his strength, his puck control, his shot and even his passing. But I think Hockey's Future says it best:
In all my years of watching hockey, this quality has been the most rare. There's many a fast skater who ends up dumping and chasing and many a skilled puckhandler who can't progress quickly enough before the reinforcements come raging back. This is the kind of thing people said about Pavel Bure, which in terms of players we need, is dead on the right type. Being able to stickhandle at top speed cannot be learned at the NHL level, it has to be there from the get go, and that's why he is such an exciting player. The best thing of all is that watching him yourself, you can see the truth in that assessment, that is what makes him different.
Kostitsyn did, what by Habs standards was a short apprenticeship, of two and two thirds seasons in Hamilton. His first year was much like his time at CSKA – he was young and underplayed. His second year, he was upon a top line and second in scoring behind Corey Locke. Last season, before his call-up, he was leading the team and showing his flair and skills. So two years till take off in Hamilton, I would expect the same up in Montreal.
So far with the Habs, Andrei has been a bit quiet – 3 goals and 14 points in 34 games. But as he has shown in the past, put him in a position of responsibility, with more ice time, and he delivers returns. This year, he has been granted a place on the second line and he's already begun to flourish. One goal doesn't tell the whole story for certain. He has been confident and involved. Just last game, he had a third period to rave about – making it into Tobalev's dome for the first time this season.
Where Andrei Markov is almost the finished product, Kostitsyn is all about potential.
Of all the Habs prospects, he is the one who could one day score 50 goals. Probably the only one (the one exception possibly being his little brother). Of course, he is coming off a one-goal season, so we'll have to exercise a bit of patience (and hope) to see that day, but the fact remains of the list of players coming up, he is the premier offensive talent – Higgins will score and help us in an infinite number of other ways to win, but I don't think he has 50 goals in him (even he stated his goal is to be a 40-goal man); Latendresse too may score many, but unless we become Philadelphia won't fit well enough with the style to top the half century.
To start winning comfortably and genuinely challenging for the Cup again, I feel we need an elite scorer – one who can score against tough defenses and from out of nothing. Andrei Kostitsyn is our Great White Hope. May his time on the second line help him develop and grow so that one day soon we can put talk of even strength scoring troubles to bed for good.
For Part 2, I will examine the mysterious and mysteriously overlooked prospect that is Andrei the Younger, or Kostit the Elder if you like. As Markov will have to be Doug Harvey to Price's Plante; Andrei Kostitsyn will have to play the role of offensive stalwart Dickie Moore.
Born in the USSR – like Markov – in 1985, Andrei Kostitsyn did most of his growing up in the new country of Belarus. Hi formative hockey years were also spent in Belarus, where he played in the Belarusian league, subsequently moving to his hometown club of Novopolotsk in a junior-level Russian league. After putting up excellent stats at both these levels he eventually made the move to CSKA in Moscow, where he played on their teams at various levels of Russian league play. He would eventually stick with the senior team at the CSKA club by the latter portion of the 2002-2003 season, the year he was drafted.
Kostitsyn's story leading up to the 2003 NHL entry draft, however, is not one that can be told by stats alone. Much like Anze Kopitar, he had really emerged from a country that up until the mid-90s had been a real hockey backwater. While he had impressive stats in Belarusian play, there was no benchmark for this. His play at CSKA was too limited and brief to result in bags of goals.
So why so highly touted?
Well, for one thing, his play at WJCs and under-18s for Belarus showed that when he was placed in a dominant role on a team, he responded with production. Besides that, it was the way he scored, shot and skated that made him a hot commodity.
When the Canadiens selected Andrei Kostitsyn 10th overall in the 2003 draft, there was a very mixed response. 2003, afterall, was as deep as drafts get in the first round. Before him: Fleury, Staal, Horton, Zherdev, Vanek, Michalek, Suter, Coburn, Phaneuf. After him: Getzlaf, Perry and Parise. But on the day, general consensus was a great gamble. For Kostitsyn has epilepsy, which made the teams that chose Michalek, Suter, Coburn and Phaneuf stay away. Many scouts, including Timmins had in as a top 5 talent – which obviously says a lot among those players.
What exactly are these talents then? Well, I've noticed his strength, his puck control, his shot and even his passing. But I think Hockey's Future says it best:
What sets him apart from other players is his ability to handle the puck at top speed.
In all my years of watching hockey, this quality has been the most rare. There's many a fast skater who ends up dumping and chasing and many a skilled puckhandler who can't progress quickly enough before the reinforcements come raging back. This is the kind of thing people said about Pavel Bure, which in terms of players we need, is dead on the right type. Being able to stickhandle at top speed cannot be learned at the NHL level, it has to be there from the get go, and that's why he is such an exciting player. The best thing of all is that watching him yourself, you can see the truth in that assessment, that is what makes him different.
Kostitsyn did, what by Habs standards was a short apprenticeship, of two and two thirds seasons in Hamilton. His first year was much like his time at CSKA – he was young and underplayed. His second year, he was upon a top line and second in scoring behind Corey Locke. Last season, before his call-up, he was leading the team and showing his flair and skills. So two years till take off in Hamilton, I would expect the same up in Montreal.
So far with the Habs, Andrei has been a bit quiet – 3 goals and 14 points in 34 games. But as he has shown in the past, put him in a position of responsibility, with more ice time, and he delivers returns. This year, he has been granted a place on the second line and he's already begun to flourish. One goal doesn't tell the whole story for certain. He has been confident and involved. Just last game, he had a third period to rave about – making it into Tobalev's dome for the first time this season.
Where Andrei Markov is almost the finished product, Kostitsyn is all about potential.
Of all the Habs prospects, he is the one who could one day score 50 goals. Probably the only one (the one exception possibly being his little brother). Of course, he is coming off a one-goal season, so we'll have to exercise a bit of patience (and hope) to see that day, but the fact remains of the list of players coming up, he is the premier offensive talent – Higgins will score and help us in an infinite number of other ways to win, but I don't think he has 50 goals in him (even he stated his goal is to be a 40-goal man); Latendresse too may score many, but unless we become Philadelphia won't fit well enough with the style to top the half century.
To start winning comfortably and genuinely challenging for the Cup again, I feel we need an elite scorer – one who can score against tough defenses and from out of nothing. Andrei Kostitsyn is our Great White Hope. May his time on the second line help him develop and grow so that one day soon we can put talk of even strength scoring troubles to bed for good.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Josh Gorges: A Forgotten Prospect
I don't always agree with Mike Boone, but this time I do. I think Josh Gorges has something to offer the Habs this year.
In a funny way, some fans are dismissing Gorges as some small Sharks cast-off. A veteran who couldn't cut it in the West. Well, he's no such thing. If Josh Gorges were drafted and bred in Hamilton, then I feel that Canadiens fans would be calling for him in Montreal.
Some things you should know about Josh:
1) His last name is Gorges (not Georges)
2) He is younger than bona fide prospect O'Byrne
3) He cracked the Sharks at age 21, youg for a defenseman and already has 104 games in the NHL under his belt at 23
4) He was the captain of his junior team
5) He led a team with only one current NHLer (Shea Weber) to a Memorial Cup (2003-04)
6) He was born the same day (one year earlier) than Weber his Kelowna teammate
7) He posted 15 points in 17 games in that Cup run (2003-04)
8) He was better than point-per-game in 2002-03 in both the regular season and in the playoffs (20 points in 19 games in the playoffs)
9) Played for Team Canada at WJCs
10) Mike Boone likes him to make the team this year
11) So do I
In a funny way, some fans are dismissing Gorges as some small Sharks cast-off. A veteran who couldn't cut it in the West. Well, he's no such thing. If Josh Gorges were drafted and bred in Hamilton, then I feel that Canadiens fans would be calling for him in Montreal.
Some things you should know about Josh:
1) His last name is Gorges (not Georges)
2) He is younger than bona fide prospect O'Byrne
3) He cracked the Sharks at age 21, youg for a defenseman and already has 104 games in the NHL under his belt at 23
4) He was the captain of his junior team
5) He led a team with only one current NHLer (Shea Weber) to a Memorial Cup (2003-04)
6) He was born the same day (one year earlier) than Weber his Kelowna teammate
7) He posted 15 points in 17 games in that Cup run (2003-04)
8) He was better than point-per-game in 2002-03 in both the regular season and in the playoffs (20 points in 19 games in the playoffs)
9) Played for Team Canada at WJCs
10) Mike Boone likes him to make the team this year
11) So do I
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
A better season ahead?
I must say, I have to agree with my fellow blogger at <> eyes on the prize <>, when he thinks there are many reasons to believe the Canadiens will be better next year.
As you will have seen if you read his post, the analysis says the Habs will be improved. I agree. Bringing up young players, who will improve over their first few years is a good way to do this.
Though tempting, I will not equate improvement to playoffs. It would be possible to improve and still miss. It will take patience to improve in this way, but the results are likely to be lasting.
Eyes on the prize is a great blog. Read it if you like the Habs, you'll probably enjoy the analysis too.
As you will have seen if you read his post, the analysis says the Habs will be improved. I agree. Bringing up young players, who will improve over their first few years is a good way to do this.
Though tempting, I will not equate improvement to playoffs. It would be possible to improve and still miss. It will take patience to improve in this way, but the results are likely to be lasting.
Eyes on the prize is a great blog. Read it if you like the Habs, you'll probably enjoy the analysis too.
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