In my last post, I went charging full steam at some prospect ranking processes I didn't like. You'd think I'd be wise enough then to stay out of the prospect ranking game.
Think again. As I said, take the results with a grain or two of salt, but the fact remains ranking prospects is a fun sport for summertime.
The prospect ranking that I allude to here is the current Top 25 countdown of players aged 25 or under within the Canadiens system. The guys at Eyes on the Prize put in all the effort to gather opinion, compile and make some nice informative posts with snazzy graphics. I participated, but only by virtue of giving my two cents on the list.
From the looks of it, Habs Eyevs on the Prize will be releasing a profile each day until the 25 names are through. I suggest you take a look now and in the next couple of weeks as the bottom of this heap is where the least known prospects reside.
My plan is to read and watch.
Because I have my own list and the consensus list, I also plan to do a few highlights on players that I ranked much higher or much lower with some explanation as to my reasoning. My profiles, of course, following on from their profiles, so the thunder is not stolen from its rightful holders.
Until then, take it in. Save up some of your own ideas/grievances, and we can have a full on battle of philosophies when the time comes...
Showing posts with label rankings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rankings. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Ranking Prospects
If you were to take the internauts' word for it, the Canadiens don't have a very bright future at all.
Today, Hockey Prospectus published their rationale for placing the Canadiens 24th on the list of 30 NHL teams (behind the Toronto Maple Leafs!).
Add this to the already sad ranking of #20 at Hockey's Future, and what's a Habs fan to think?
Think is the key word.
Detroit is the first ranked team on the Hockey Prospectus page in terms of prospects. This might be your first flag that methods need investigating.
Is Detroit the only team in the NHL without worthwhile player to make the NHL from drafts 2005-2010? They very well might be. Shawn Matthis, Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader highlight the NHL leaders from the 30-odd players Detroit has selected in that time. Compare this to Carey Price (Hart trophy votes), Yannick Weber, Guillaume Latendresse, Sergei Kostitsyn (team's leading scorer), PK Subban to name but a few.
You can see the issue here. Part of it is that Montreal has promoted players to the NHL level -- thereby taking them out of the "prospect" ranking formulae. Part of the issue is that Detroit gives their players more time (partly because they can due to NHL roster depth).
Let's take the example of Brendan Smith. He was drafted #27 overall in the 2007 entry draft and played some god years in the NCAA since. Last year he put up decent numbers in the AHL as rookie. He projects as a good-looking top prospect for the Wings.
But now consider that he was taken only a few picks ahead of PK Subban, is older than PK and actually got less points as an AHL rookie than PK did as an NHL rookie. Detroit's ranking is being helped by a player much less exciting a prospect than PK, even though PK probably has many more productive NHL years ahead of him than Brendan will. And it doesn't stop there. Yannick Weber was also drafted that year and turned the AHL rookie success earlier than Smith. He has since made an NHL case and was scoring important NHL playoff goals against the Stanley Cup champions while Smith was watching the AHL playoffs.
So you see it's a bit of nonsense already, and I didn't even have to delve very far, or mention Carey Price.
The reason people came up with the saying "Hindsight is 20/20" is because predicting and foretelling very much isn't. The lesson here is to take these rankings with the appropriate amount of salt. While the player profiles provide an interesting read, the ranking process is tenuous. When one could make a case that #24 Montreal has better young prospects (NHL and AHL) than #1 Detroit, you can see my point.
Today, Hockey Prospectus published their rationale for placing the Canadiens 24th on the list of 30 NHL teams (behind the Toronto Maple Leafs!).
Add this to the already sad ranking of #20 at Hockey's Future, and what's a Habs fan to think?
Think is the key word.
Detroit is the first ranked team on the Hockey Prospectus page in terms of prospects. This might be your first flag that methods need investigating.
Is Detroit the only team in the NHL without worthwhile player to make the NHL from drafts 2005-2010? They very well might be. Shawn Matthis, Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader highlight the NHL leaders from the 30-odd players Detroit has selected in that time. Compare this to Carey Price (Hart trophy votes), Yannick Weber, Guillaume Latendresse, Sergei Kostitsyn (team's leading scorer), PK Subban to name but a few.
You can see the issue here. Part of it is that Montreal has promoted players to the NHL level -- thereby taking them out of the "prospect" ranking formulae. Part of the issue is that Detroit gives their players more time (partly because they can due to NHL roster depth).
Let's take the example of Brendan Smith. He was drafted #27 overall in the 2007 entry draft and played some god years in the NCAA since. Last year he put up decent numbers in the AHL as rookie. He projects as a good-looking top prospect for the Wings.
But now consider that he was taken only a few picks ahead of PK Subban, is older than PK and actually got less points as an AHL rookie than PK did as an NHL rookie. Detroit's ranking is being helped by a player much less exciting a prospect than PK, even though PK probably has many more productive NHL years ahead of him than Brendan will. And it doesn't stop there. Yannick Weber was also drafted that year and turned the AHL rookie success earlier than Smith. He has since made an NHL case and was scoring important NHL playoff goals against the Stanley Cup champions while Smith was watching the AHL playoffs.
So you see it's a bit of nonsense already, and I didn't even have to delve very far, or mention Carey Price.
The reason people came up with the saying "Hindsight is 20/20" is because predicting and foretelling very much isn't. The lesson here is to take these rankings with the appropriate amount of salt. While the player profiles provide an interesting read, the ranking process is tenuous. When one could make a case that #24 Montreal has better young prospects (NHL and AHL) than #1 Detroit, you can see my point.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
41-Game Reviews All Round
Having checked Google Analytics recently, I could see not many of the readers were reading the top post, but not the second. I don't want to flog a dead horse: if you don't want to read it, that's fine. However, this post is my moving it up to sit at the top of the page again:
Midway Evaluations: The Habs And Their Half Seasons
And instead of simply moving the initial post, I thought the keenest among you might also want to look at someone else's opinion on this matter – to remember why you visit this site (or why this site isn't your only stop of the day).
When you commit to a player grade as you do when you write one of these things, reading other posts stirs up all kinds of emotions and arguments. So forgive me for posting these, but to me they were fun to read: ranging from light, fun and informative to downright polar opposite at times.
First up: RDS's Gaston Therrien
No marks here, just a fairly innocuous take on the season so far. The players he chooses to highlight: Lapierre (predictably), as well as Kostopoulos and Brisebois (huh?) are interesting...
Next: Arpon Basu at the Daily Hab-it
Actually makes the effort to list every player, and even commits to some hard-line opinions of his. Clearly we don't like the same players or brand of hockey, but LIW admires his conviction.
Third: Fred at En Route Pour La Coupe
We discussed his Tanguay rank before. His rankings are thorough and thoughtful.
Finally: Habsworld season averages of weekly marks and Habsworld Report Cards
For a site with such a great URL, you might expect a little better. The averages by their own legend mean we are a team of stars who under-perform with some good players who play at expectation. Every player on the team seems to range from 7.0-7.75. What's more, Guillaume Latendresse is the highest ranked forward – that kinda speaks for itself really...
Their report cards are not of a much higher standard. The article rightly gives the Canadiens as a team an A, but then gives a single player an A+ (Gorges), and a few As (Tanguay among the top of the class again – for those who use stats as cheat sheets). Hamrlik gets the second lowest mark on defence, behind Brisebois, Bouillon and even Dandenault!
It's a shame they don't post comments as there'd be some doozies there for sure...
Anyway, great first half. Even us fans must be congratulated for being rather more mature about winning this year. Here's to an even better end to the campaign.
Midway Evaluations: The Habs And Their Half Seasons
And instead of simply moving the initial post, I thought the keenest among you might also want to look at someone else's opinion on this matter – to remember why you visit this site (or why this site isn't your only stop of the day).
When you commit to a player grade as you do when you write one of these things, reading other posts stirs up all kinds of emotions and arguments. So forgive me for posting these, but to me they were fun to read: ranging from light, fun and informative to downright polar opposite at times.
First up: RDS's Gaston Therrien
No marks here, just a fairly innocuous take on the season so far. The players he chooses to highlight: Lapierre (predictably), as well as Kostopoulos and Brisebois (huh?) are interesting...
Next: Arpon Basu at the Daily Hab-it
Actually makes the effort to list every player, and even commits to some hard-line opinions of his. Clearly we don't like the same players or brand of hockey, but LIW admires his conviction.
Third: Fred at En Route Pour La Coupe
We discussed his Tanguay rank before. His rankings are thorough and thoughtful.
Finally: Habsworld season averages of weekly marks and Habsworld Report Cards
For a site with such a great URL, you might expect a little better. The averages by their own legend mean we are a team of stars who under-perform with some good players who play at expectation. Every player on the team seems to range from 7.0-7.75. What's more, Guillaume Latendresse is the highest ranked forward – that kinda speaks for itself really...
Their report cards are not of a much higher standard. The article rightly gives the Canadiens as a team an A, but then gives a single player an A+ (Gorges), and a few As (Tanguay among the top of the class again – for those who use stats as cheat sheets). Hamrlik gets the second lowest mark on defence, behind Brisebois, Bouillon and even Dandenault!
It's a shame they don't post comments as there'd be some doozies there for sure...
Anyway, great first half. Even us fans must be congratulated for being rather more mature about winning this year. Here's to an even better end to the campaign.
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