Whether the Canadiens continue their push for the playoffs or not, there is good reason for the GM to be active at the trade deadline.
It being the one time of year that the generally conservative group running hockey teams opens their depth chart wallets and takes risks for short-term or long-term gains, it would be silly to stand idly by. opportunity is there for the cunning.
I look at the trade deadline as I look at a game. Yes it is entertaining, but really I want to come out of it feeling that the team I support got the better of it. Thinking about it, I put together a list of what I would consider to make this deadline a success (it need not be all of these things, maybe just a select few):
1) GM in on the conversations
There's no way to know about this, nor is there anyway to predict what will happen if in on conversations. But every year a relatively important piece is moved for little. The mark of a good GM is sniffing those desperate traders out and being ready to offer if not close a deal.
And this isn't just for Nash. I'd keep an eye on Buffalo and what they might do with their players who were coveted talents just a few months ago.
2) Throw out conference trading guidelines
In a year like this, where the Eastern teams in low positions may all play cards to get to the playoff table, it would be silly to discount them for an imaginary reason like "can't trade in your conference".
3) No vet defenders
Please.
With all due respect to Sopel and Mara, I think the team would have been OK without them last spring. At least as good. I understand insurance and all that, but a rational GM would have seen a team without Markov and admitted Stanley was out of the cards and instead let others grab some development opportunity. This season, it's even more clear -- this team, playoffs or not probably isn't a winner. Better to let Emelin and Diaz build through these pressure games for future returns than have them stagnate while Jordan Leopold comes in.
4) Creativity
No Columbus won't give away their 2012 pick for little. But let's get creative. What about Calgary's 2013 pick? By betting on who might fall this year, and in the next few years, a pick's value might be underestimated by that GM. Pick for pick deals can sometimes dupe an overly optimistic GM into doing something really quite stupid (see Brian Burke).
The Habs could use a high pick, any team could. But in the Canadiens case, it's worth looking at the relative age of the team and when its peak might be. The chance to grab a forward that will peak at the same time as Price and Subban is not a window that will stay open forever.
5) Bolster Hamilton
Few look at the lower echelon trades with much enthusiasm. But really, there is a lot to be said for swooping minor league upgrades on a day of distraction.
The well is dry there. Beyond Frederic St. Denis there aren't many players that look to be replacements for NHL level players any time soon.
Upgrades are there to be had, and it wouldn't be a burden to the organization to saddle an already losing team with some 21 year olds that might help at some point down the road.
Is there an ear for such trades at the deadline? Maybe not too much of one amid all the confusion, but important additional players are often found.
I could have said power forward. i could have said Pavel Datsyuk. But let's be realistic, the Habs will not be dealing from a position of strength. The talent that management sees as cornerstone pieces must be as thin as those we see, and trading quality for anything (even other quality) still presents unknowns.
One thing the Habs have actually achieved this season is to increase the value of their draft picks over the expected. And with a tight league, they could shift one way or the other quite drastically from deadline to dead season. I think they should play on this if they can and believe in their own abilities to elevate their rank. Probably better than to subtract known NHL quantities at this point.
I look forward to the day of moves from everyone and watching the Habs fortunes rise and fall in relation to each. In the game of contender building, the trade deadlines can be like a 2 minute PP for or against and the momentum swings that can be found are significant. Should be fun.
Showing posts with label Hamilton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hamilton. Show all posts
Friday, February 17, 2012
Friday, February 25, 2011
Canadiens Deadline Assets
Hamilton Bulldog Players
Nearly there. The picture is becoming quite clear. Want the world, don't want to pay. Let's see how much we think Bulldogs players are worth.
Monday, November 08, 2010
Dustin Boyd Demoted
The news out of Montreal today is that Corsi's nightmare, Dustin Boyd has been put on the track for relgation to Hamilton.
Of course, he has to clear waivers to do it, so most outlets have taken the chance to headline this move with "Boyd placed on waivers" sometimes to stir up a Kostitsyn for nothing discussion. The reality he has to clear waivers to be sent down. This headline doesn't necessarily mean the same thing as it did pre-lockout.
I think we all thought that getting Dustin Boyd was a good idea in the summer. Team Canada junior, learned other defensive systems, plays a simple game, meant to be physical. I think we all thought it was an even better idea after a single game when he left the ice on pace for 82 goals.
So 8 games of play later have we overturned our verdicts?
I can only speak for myself when I say. Not really, and I don't really know.
Dustin has been an OK addition to what has at times been a good team. I never thought he stood out as exemplary, nor did I ever expect he would. He pretty much fulfilled my expectation. His demotion can probably be viewed trough the classic Darchian lens where not all player moves are entirely to do with the player in question. In this case, the Montreal Canadiens can't score, Boyd probably never would have anyway, so in order to promote someone who might, they need to demote someone.
Promotion coming?
There's no word yet, but putting a player through waivers to save his salary would be a bit miserly from the Molsons. I think we all think this is the smoke before the promotion fire.
Here's the Hamilton scoring list for consideration.
Like for like enthusiasts have put their money behind Ryan White, whom I like. Wishful thinkers look to Desharnais. And those who remember Martin's fixations of September suggest Palushaj. Apart from not doing anything, which i still think is possible, i would only add that the possibility still remains of promoting another defender. Yannick Weber is NHL tested and AHL heated.
What do you all think will be the associated promotion if any?
(See poll adjacent)
Not entirely related (paraphrased, out of the context of the thread, that's a warning for you PF), but I found this quote from a fan funny:
Of course, he has to clear waivers to do it, so most outlets have taken the chance to headline this move with "Boyd placed on waivers" sometimes to stir up a Kostitsyn for nothing discussion. The reality he has to clear waivers to be sent down. This headline doesn't necessarily mean the same thing as it did pre-lockout.
I think we all thought that getting Dustin Boyd was a good idea in the summer. Team Canada junior, learned other defensive systems, plays a simple game, meant to be physical. I think we all thought it was an even better idea after a single game when he left the ice on pace for 82 goals.
So 8 games of play later have we overturned our verdicts?
I can only speak for myself when I say. Not really, and I don't really know.
Dustin has been an OK addition to what has at times been a good team. I never thought he stood out as exemplary, nor did I ever expect he would. He pretty much fulfilled my expectation. His demotion can probably be viewed trough the classic Darchian lens where not all player moves are entirely to do with the player in question. In this case, the Montreal Canadiens can't score, Boyd probably never would have anyway, so in order to promote someone who might, they need to demote someone.
Promotion coming?
There's no word yet, but putting a player through waivers to save his salary would be a bit miserly from the Molsons. I think we all think this is the smoke before the promotion fire.
Here's the Hamilton scoring list for consideration.
Like for like enthusiasts have put their money behind Ryan White, whom I like. Wishful thinkers look to Desharnais. And those who remember Martin's fixations of September suggest Palushaj. Apart from not doing anything, which i still think is possible, i would only add that the possibility still remains of promoting another defender. Yannick Weber is NHL tested and AHL heated.
What do you all think will be the associated promotion if any?
(See poll adjacent)
Not entirely related (paraphrased, out of the context of the thread, that's a warning for you PF), but I found this quote from a fan funny:
"So long Justin, nice to have known you."I think that pretty much sums up the impression he has made on a lot of fans.
Friday, November 05, 2010
There's No Team In X Paciorty
I've written many times about how Max Pacioretty is no goalscorer, no power forward. It turns out he's no diplomat or power thinker either. He times a quote like he times his shots.
Yesterday, we learned via RDS that Max Pacioretty had told Renaud Lavoie of his wish to stay in Hamilton the whole season. Today, we hear more from his Team 990 interview.
There's a lot of sound thinking in what Max Pacioretty has to say. Letting players make mistakes for development sounds about right. Taking a year to build his game is something most would have advised anyway.
It's not always what he said that is the problem, it is the fact that he said it on the radio, that he said it at all.
I don't know about you, but I don't think I've ever heard a 21-year-old hockey player state that he would rather spend a whole season on the farm rather than jump at the chance to prove what he can do in the NHL. It's almost unnatural. The reason it's unnatural is that it shows a distinct lack of ambition and a very worrying lack of confidence.
Never mind that he also slagged off the current coach of the Canadiens, you know the one who will be here when he's done his year in Hamilton. And he questioned the value of working under "one of the best coaches of all time?" for his personal development.
It's an immature set of interviews all around, and a set that could well be forgiven but for a few things.
The first is that forgiving Max may be more effort than it's worth for the organization. Having offended coaches, and from the sounds of it players, immediate recall is not on the books. In August I asked and we all joined in on the fact that Pacioretty's window of opportunity was closing compared to what it had been.
"The Habs are loaded with middle talent on the wings through Hamilton and beyond. Pacioretty is a good player, but is likely replaceable via internal promotion." is what I said at the time, and it's only truer as Desharnais shines brighter, Eller shows good glimpses and others put up numbers just as interesting without the sour attitude. Asking to be in the AHL all year might be the easiest request Max has ever made. Hamilton, though? We'll see.
The second is that Max is now broadcast over the internet on an interview that drags on and on without hardly a mention of anyone other than Max Pacioretty. They say there is no "I" in team, Well, despite appearances there's no team in Max Pacioretty (X Paciorty). It's a stunning tirade of self-absorption that sendsoff alarms of Christopher Higgins.
Mathieu Darche, the consummate professional, and one who knows far more about learning how to play hockey in sub-NHL situations than the precocious American summed up the whole affair best when he said:
Martin then closint it out with a wry thought:
The good side
Even in stories like this there's always good.
Cunneyworth and co. have been winning, but the fact they are getting good reviews is encouraging. There was plenty of worry about losing Guy Boucher from the Hamilton organization. The team won't perhaps learn the same things, but at least if they all learn something and take lessons from the winning they are currently doing, that would be a good step.
Yesterday, we learned via RDS that Max Pacioretty had told Renaud Lavoie of his wish to stay in Hamilton the whole season. Today, we hear more from his Team 990 interview.
There's a lot of sound thinking in what Max Pacioretty has to say. Letting players make mistakes for development sounds about right. Taking a year to build his game is something most would have advised anyway.
It's not always what he said that is the problem, it is the fact that he said it on the radio, that he said it at all.
I don't know about you, but I don't think I've ever heard a 21-year-old hockey player state that he would rather spend a whole season on the farm rather than jump at the chance to prove what he can do in the NHL. It's almost unnatural. The reason it's unnatural is that it shows a distinct lack of ambition and a very worrying lack of confidence.
Never mind that he also slagged off the current coach of the Canadiens, you know the one who will be here when he's done his year in Hamilton. And he questioned the value of working under "one of the best coaches of all time?" for his personal development.
It's an immature set of interviews all around, and a set that could well be forgiven but for a few things.
The first is that forgiving Max may be more effort than it's worth for the organization. Having offended coaches, and from the sounds of it players, immediate recall is not on the books. In August I asked and we all joined in on the fact that Pacioretty's window of opportunity was closing compared to what it had been.
"The Habs are loaded with middle talent on the wings through Hamilton and beyond. Pacioretty is a good player, but is likely replaceable via internal promotion." is what I said at the time, and it's only truer as Desharnais shines brighter, Eller shows good glimpses and others put up numbers just as interesting without the sour attitude. Asking to be in the AHL all year might be the easiest request Max has ever made. Hamilton, though? We'll see.
The second is that Max is now broadcast over the internet on an interview that drags on and on without hardly a mention of anyone other than Max Pacioretty. They say there is no "I" in team, Well, despite appearances there's no team in Max Pacioretty (X Paciorty). It's a stunning tirade of self-absorption that sendsoff alarms of Christopher Higgins.
Mathieu Darche, the consummate professional, and one who knows far more about learning how to play hockey in sub-NHL situations than the precocious American summed up the whole affair best when he said:
«Un joueur peut se retrouver sur un quatrième trio, mais doit apprendre que les décisions ne sont pas toujours prises juste en fonction de lui.»
"A player may find himself on the 4th line, but has to understand that not all decisions made are a function of himself alone."
Martin then closint it out with a wry thought:
«Malheureusement il s'est blessé.»
The good side
Even in stories like this there's always good.
Cunneyworth and co. have been winning, but the fact they are getting good reviews is encouraging. There was plenty of worry about losing Guy Boucher from the Hamilton organization. The team won't perhaps learn the same things, but at least if they all learn something and take lessons from the winning they are currently doing, that would be a good step.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Thought For The Week
Goalie Wins
If you've read this site before chances are you have at some time stumbled across a debate about goaltending proficiency. A lot of the time, the issue of goaltender wins as a statistic comes up.
Lately, it seems the prevailing attitude is that wins have nothing to do with goaltending. The argument is well made and the logic sound.
So imagine my surprise when I was (goodness knows why) listening to Robert Mayer's interview from Habs Inside/Out and they asked him about his definiton of a successful season:
I find that interesting. I suspect he's not alone among his bretheren.
While I completely agree that it is oversimplistic to look at wins as a main crux of an argument for goaltender proficiency, I have often also wondered at the oversimplicity of just discarding the stat altogether given its likely influence on how the goalie plays (drives his motivation).
I think I'll remember Mayer's words when I look at seasons past come June.
Lately, it seems the prevailing attitude is that wins have nothing to do with goaltending. The argument is well made and the logic sound.
So imagine my surprise when I was (goodness knows why) listening to Robert Mayer's interview from Habs Inside/Out and they asked him about his definiton of a successful season:
Question: "What would be a good season for you, for the next year?"No mention of other statistics, no mention of save percentgae or even strength save percentage, or games won where he outperformed his expected save percentage based on average shot quality. No, it was wins. Wins are his primary stat for evaluating a season. More wins than losses = good. All wins = perfect.
Mayer (without hesitation): "A good season for me? You know what, a good season for me would be if I had more wins than losses..."
I find that interesting. I suspect he's not alone among his bretheren.
While I completely agree that it is oversimplistic to look at wins as a main crux of an argument for goaltender proficiency, I have often also wondered at the oversimplicity of just discarding the stat altogether given its likely influence on how the goalie plays (drives his motivation).
I think I'll remember Mayer's words when I look at seasons past come June.
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
Adieu Guy Boucher
This past week, the Montreal Canadiens lost their young dauphin, the rising star that is Guy Boucher. A French Canadian student of the game who has succeeded at every level so far due to his diligence and the creative new development of tactics.
He’s the coach that any team would want. Eventually.
Habs fan reaction has been predictably sour on this departure. Boucher was seen as a star signing last season, even before he went to work for the organization. Following a season of success in the AHL and of player development the likes of which we have seldom seen in three decades in Montreal, his star only seemed brighter.
My personal take on this is that the Habs did the right thing here.
First, they did the right thing for the man. Boucher now leaves the Canadiens family with nothing but cherished memories. This will always be the team that gave him his break, and now too the team that didn’t begrudge him his next one.
Second, they honour their commitment to Jacques Martin, who like his calm demeanor or not, must be given loads of credit for his revamp of the team that can suddenly compete with the big boys.
Finally, they didn’t panic. Panic would have been hiring Boucher on as head coach for fear that he may be great. Such hirings are unwise, as they take us further from the well laid plan that was so painful to instigate one short year ago. A veteran coach was needed, and probably still is, while veterans are forged from the young generation of leaders coming through.
Still reasons to denounce this move do exist. In the vein of a Leclair trade that still haunts many a fan’s dreams, there’s the what if? What if Boucher wins the Cup elsewhere? What if he wins the Jack Adams?
It’s easy to get caught up in all these what ifs, but often forgot is the other side of the coin: What if Guy Boucher takes time to adjust to the league like the vast majority of coaches who come through?
Among the reasons to take confident comfort in this move, the story of one William Scott Bowman is foremost.
Scotty Bowman entered the Canadiens organization as a star more than 50 years before Guy Boucher ever did. At his hiring in the early 1950s, Bowman was a former junior Canadien who had impressed his mentors. Early in his post-player days, Scotty was made assistant of the Junior Canadiens under the mercurial Sam Pollock. Memorial Cup finals and championships followed as he made his name within the Forum’s halls.
After stints coaching in Ottawa and Peterborough, Scotty was moved internally to the position of chief scout of amateur talent (a latter-day Trevor Timmins). In any case, the Canadiens weren’t going to let his feet get cold. When he was ready, he took full duties as coach of the Montreal Junior Canadiens ¬ the main feeder to the star-laden team in the NHL.
Then, in 1967-68, the NHL expanded its operations to include 6 more cities. Opportunities that had been sewn up by playing and coaching talent alike until then were suddenly doubled. For the Canadiens, this presented a choice. Would Scotty Bowman be shoehorned into the pro ranks alongside Toe Blake, would they put their organizational foot down and try to bar his way, or would they let the star they had nurtured fly the coop.
They chose the latter and Scotty was allowed to depart in order to become an assistant to Lynn Patrick in St. Louis. As Scotty recalls it, he decided to take a chance then too:
"Montreal was a very strong team at the time. Toe Blake was coaching. I got a chance to go to the NHL when they expanded. It's hard to turn down a chance to get into the NHL. I was coaching the Junior Canadiens who had moved back to Montreal. I got the opportunity to go to St. Louis from Lynn Patrick. He was going to be the general manager, and I coached his son Craig in junior hockey in Montreal. When he got the job with the Blues, he hired me as his assistant. I decided I really should take a chance. I was fortunate the league expanded and I got an opportunity to get to one of the expansion franchises."His time in St. Louis was a success, after becoming head coach after mere weeks into the season, Scotty’s teams went on to reach the finals in each of his first three seasons in the NHL. No doubt Scotty learned much.
Apprenticeship completed, his old head coach and friend Sam Pollock convinced Scotty to rejoin his hometown club in 1971. The rest is history.
Guy Boucher may never match Scotty Bowman’s achievements, but his path to the NHL coaching ranks is at least somewhat similar. In both cases, the coaches had keen eyes for talent, a commitment to winning and the determination to outstretch their rival coaches. Both were also known stars of the Canadiens organizations they were part of.
In following Bowman’s path out of the Canadiens family to stretch his legs, we hope that the similarities continue ¬ there’s really nothing else to be done. In the new world of the NHL, where teams from one season rarely resemble the one three years down the line, there’s no real reason to fret over Boucher. We simply hope he can learn and thrive while keeping the candle he has for the Canadiens organization flickering until the opportunity for his return may come.
Suivant, next.
On a related note, one would think that the hiring of Guy Boucher last year will have taught the Canadiens management team a valuable lesson about installing quality personnel under the main team. I hope that in addition to holding early camps, firing scouts, signing Americans and negotiating with Plekanec that Gauthier is dedicating a substantial slab of time to scouting the next Bulldogs coach.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Canadiens Search For Scoring:
Call Up Veteran Darche
Yesterday all the media outlets announced, then confirmed that McGill alum Mathieu Darche had been called up by the big club ahead of the contest against St. Louis. It turns out the two people who voted for Darche in the survey are the winners. D'Agostini who received one vote (probably from himself) will be the loser...
It's a move that reflects the need to do something, anything, to get the other half of the team interested in this fight for points. It's a simple move that could do just that.
Proud day for McGill Redmen hockey
This promotion is a proud day for McGill Redmen hockey, and indeed as a former non-hockey playing sportsman for all Redmen. Already having the distinct honour of being the 10th McGill alum to make the NHL, Mathieu Darche will be now be the third graduate of one of Montreal's other historic institutions to play for its most historic institution.
The first players from McGill to don the Bleu, Blanc, Rouge were Jack McGill and Nels Crutchfield (Hockey Legends story) in the 1934-35 season. The last McGill Redman to play was McGill as he finished up in Montreal in 1937.
But the McGill links go further than that. Ken Dryden went to McGill University in 1973-74 (in the midst of his NHL career) to finish his law degree. He didn't play for the Redmen, though I'm sure they wouldn't have turned him down.
Before you scoff too hard at me lauding McGill, consider for a second the significance of that Redmen team. Started in 1877, it was the world's first, and now oldest, organized hockey team. The team from 1877 played in and won the very first organized hockey game to ever take place in the Victoria Skating rink (now a car rental business). Thought their NHL numbers look thin on the ground (especially recently) Redmen have also won the Stanley Cup 35 times, and that's not including coaches like Mike Babcock. And some NHL trophies owe their names to some Redmen alums too: Art Ross, Lester Patrick.
The Habs decided they would tap the local resource last spring when they snagged rising coaching star Guy Boucher from the Q. Boucher then reached back to McGill to recruit his associate and last year's Redmen coach Matin Raymond. they both in turn probably had a say in bringing in Darche. The trifecta of Redmen have done something in Hamilton, as the shaky team that we saw on the ice last season with Lever at the reins is now second in the AHL and vying for the goals against lead with defencemen we all thought were offense only and goalies we had written off as hopeless.
If the Habs can tap just a little piece of the Hamilton/McGill magic (maybe Darche knows of a system?) then reporters may soon be dreaming up playoff scenarios once again.
Just what he was signed for
I liked this signing all the way. In the summer, noting how Darche was signed before many homegrown players, I suspected the Martin Raymond hand at work. I think my initial feelings on the signing have been confirmed with his play so far in Hamilton:
Darche here for scoring, but not on second line
People around the team have been a bit excited about the mini slump endured by Plekanec and Cammalleri on the first/second line. While this has been an important factor in our recent difficulties, it's not the only problem.
As Tobalev noted in the previous game reports, and the Incredible Zero award acknowledged, tertiary scoring going as dry as the Mauritanian desert is just as big, if not a more troubling problem. Between "I try, so don't get at me" Pacioretty and "I was once a media darling" Lapierre, I think it's fair to say we expected more. I think Darche may just be the medicine to a) put Pacioretty where he belongs and b) wake Lapierre up from whatever he is currently doing.
Veteran reporters with more grudges than energy for reporting have already dismissed Darche off-hand as a career minor leaguer. While it is certainly true, what perhaps hasn't been considered is that he's been a pretty darn good minor leaguer, and one whose career was perhaps hampered by being developed by the most inept organization in recent NHL memory (the Doug MacLean Blue Jackets). Now, I wouldn't go as far to say that he would be a star today. However, one must question the eye for talent of that organization whose lone NHL survivor 9 years after joining Syracuse in 2000 was given a mere 34 games over 3 years in the NHL – this at a time when Patrick Traverse could have been a difference maker for the team.
The belief in Darche as a scorer is part borne from seeing him play and part borne from seeing him lead 5 of his 9 AHL teams in goalscoring. It's also got a bit to do with the fact he's the G/game leader in Hamilton right now. Here's the basic low-down on the player from hockeydb. Highlights to note include 73 games played with the Lightning two seasons ago (his first sustained chance in the NHL) and all the 30+ goal seasons in the AHL.
I believe that the second line could benefit from having Darche, but may just catch a few good games with Bergeron while waiting for Sergei. Anyway, even if I'm wrong about Darche and he doesn't score a single goal – nothing is lost. He merely then adds his name to the lengthening list of players providing that unique set of statistics.
It's a move that reflects the need to do something, anything, to get the other half of the team interested in this fight for points. It's a simple move that could do just that.
Proud day for McGill Redmen hockey
This promotion is a proud day for McGill Redmen hockey, and indeed as a former non-hockey playing sportsman for all Redmen. Already having the distinct honour of being the 10th McGill alum to make the NHL, Mathieu Darche will be now be the third graduate of one of Montreal's other historic institutions to play for its most historic institution.
The first players from McGill to don the Bleu, Blanc, Rouge were Jack McGill and Nels Crutchfield (Hockey Legends story) in the 1934-35 season. The last McGill Redman to play was McGill as he finished up in Montreal in 1937.
But the McGill links go further than that. Ken Dryden went to McGill University in 1973-74 (in the midst of his NHL career) to finish his law degree. He didn't play for the Redmen, though I'm sure they wouldn't have turned him down.
Before you scoff too hard at me lauding McGill, consider for a second the significance of that Redmen team. Started in 1877, it was the world's first, and now oldest, organized hockey team. The team from 1877 played in and won the very first organized hockey game to ever take place in the Victoria Skating rink (now a car rental business). Thought their NHL numbers look thin on the ground (especially recently) Redmen have also won the Stanley Cup 35 times, and that's not including coaches like Mike Babcock. And some NHL trophies owe their names to some Redmen alums too: Art Ross, Lester Patrick.
The Habs decided they would tap the local resource last spring when they snagged rising coaching star Guy Boucher from the Q. Boucher then reached back to McGill to recruit his associate and last year's Redmen coach Matin Raymond. they both in turn probably had a say in bringing in Darche. The trifecta of Redmen have done something in Hamilton, as the shaky team that we saw on the ice last season with Lever at the reins is now second in the AHL and vying for the goals against lead with defencemen we all thought were offense only and goalies we had written off as hopeless.
If the Habs can tap just a little piece of the Hamilton/McGill magic (maybe Darche knows of a system?) then reporters may soon be dreaming up playoff scenarios once again.
Just what he was signed for
I liked this signing all the way. In the summer, noting how Darche was signed before many homegrown players, I suspected the Martin Raymond hand at work. I think my initial feelings on the signing have been confirmed with his play so far in Hamilton:
The Canadiens signed Mathieu on July 2nd, before they even put pen to paper with any of their own RFAs. In what may well be an AHL only signing, I think the Canadiens have picked up a nice piece here. And, if injuries do happen and you stare down the left wing depth chart and start to realise there isn't one, then it will be a relief to have Darche in the pocket for a call-up. After all, he has played over 100 NHL games, with one 73-game season 2 years ago. The timing of the move shows me Gainey was targeting Darche and was worried that other teams might also be interested.As most suspected, this was indeed a depth signing – one to ensure depth in Hamilton as well. But with injuries coming and solutions (at least ones the organization is willing to test) are running out. Darche was always the insurance against this, and the Habs are cashing it in now.
Darche here for scoring, but not on second line
People around the team have been a bit excited about the mini slump endured by Plekanec and Cammalleri on the first/second line. While this has been an important factor in our recent difficulties, it's not the only problem.
As Tobalev noted in the previous game reports, and the Incredible Zero award acknowledged, tertiary scoring going as dry as the Mauritanian desert is just as big, if not a more troubling problem. Between "I try, so don't get at me" Pacioretty and "I was once a media darling" Lapierre, I think it's fair to say we expected more. I think Darche may just be the medicine to a) put Pacioretty where he belongs and b) wake Lapierre up from whatever he is currently doing.
Veteran reporters with more grudges than energy for reporting have already dismissed Darche off-hand as a career minor leaguer. While it is certainly true, what perhaps hasn't been considered is that he's been a pretty darn good minor leaguer, and one whose career was perhaps hampered by being developed by the most inept organization in recent NHL memory (the Doug MacLean Blue Jackets). Now, I wouldn't go as far to say that he would be a star today. However, one must question the eye for talent of that organization whose lone NHL survivor 9 years after joining Syracuse in 2000 was given a mere 34 games over 3 years in the NHL – this at a time when Patrick Traverse could have been a difference maker for the team.
The belief in Darche as a scorer is part borne from seeing him play and part borne from seeing him lead 5 of his 9 AHL teams in goalscoring. It's also got a bit to do with the fact he's the G/game leader in Hamilton right now. Here's the basic low-down on the player from hockeydb. Highlights to note include 73 games played with the Lightning two seasons ago (his first sustained chance in the NHL) and all the 30+ goal seasons in the AHL.
I believe that the second line could benefit from having Darche, but may just catch a few good games with Bergeron while waiting for Sergei. Anyway, even if I'm wrong about Darche and he doesn't score a single goal – nothing is lost. He merely then adds his name to the lengthening list of players providing that unique set of statistics.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Pacio Ready?
No Says Poll
A recently closed poll on this site yielded surprising results.
When we asked: What to do with Pacioretty?
a) Continue to put him on a top line and hope he may score one day
b) Put him on the third line where he'll develop into a third round grinder
c) Demote him to Hamilton while we still can
d) Get him a shooting tutor
e) Change his number to something sensible
f) Get him into the weight room
I didn't expect there to be consensus. I didn't expect nearly two thirds of the sample to go for the extreme option of sending him to Hamilton. Very few went for the weight room or the third line, even fewer for persisting with the top line, or tutoring him on shoting at the NHL level. None agreed with my suggestion that #67 just isn't a good omen for the Habs player.
See the reason
I'll be honest, I voted once as well, and I chose Hamilton, but even so.
I'll go out on a limb and say that most of you probably chose the same way for similar reasons. Pacioretty is not bad player. In fact, he's a very good one. He seems to prevent goals like few others on the team not wearing a trapper. Alas, I don't think that's what we fans had in mind for the boy.
Do we need a 20-year-old shut-down man? Or, should the team work with the skills the boy has to bring them out – as a scorer (or at least a decent passer)? Do the Habs leave him with what he can manage for now and let him develop habits to follow? Or, does management get the youngster used to playing in scoring situation against competition he can actually compete with in that way?
It's a classic question, but a pertinent one, I think. Pacioretty was drafted highly because he could skate, is big and uses his body and balance well, and wasn't no slouch around the net. He's still that guy, but he's being trained to choose differently now: go outside, because you lose it inside; don't shoot, you can't score on NHL goalies; dump all the time, people anticipate your passes. His intelligence is to be lauded for adapting, but his confidence seems scarily shrunken.
The best development projects
In deciding what to do, I think it's worth a look at the best development projects on this team: Plekanec, Andrei Kostitsyn; and to contrast with the limper results: Sergei Kostitsyn.
Both Tomas and Andrei got good time and minutes in Hamilton. Both had top billing on the team and filled important roles. Once in the NHL, they came with some confidence and after some delay began to confidently deliver what was asked: goals.
Contrast with Sergei Kostitsyn who had almost no time in Hamilton and despite a quick NHL start has found it hard to crack defenders without also making mistakes (and getting benched). He too learns, and what he has learned is that to play, play safe.
Pacioretty may never score 20 goals in the NHL, but that was once the hope. I am of the belief that one way to ensure he never develops a scoring touch is to continue this way (i.e., options a) and b)). Hamilton may not be the answer, but it's probably better than the alternative.
In the meantime, how does it affect the Habs? Well they don't lose much offense that I'm aware of. They will of course lose a forward with a defensive conscience. The return of Sergei could offset that though. What's more, there are forwards to do that job with a call up or a waiver pick (Mathieu Darche, anyone?).
Thanks for all your responses, the surveys certainly add insight into this team and and indeed its fans. See the new poll on Max's replacement on the Plekanec line in the right-hand column.
When we asked: What to do with Pacioretty?
a) Continue to put him on a top line and hope he may score one day
b) Put him on the third line where he'll develop into a third round grinder
c) Demote him to Hamilton while we still can
d) Get him a shooting tutor
e) Change his number to something sensible
f) Get him into the weight room
I didn't expect there to be consensus. I didn't expect nearly two thirds of the sample to go for the extreme option of sending him to Hamilton. Very few went for the weight room or the third line, even fewer for persisting with the top line, or tutoring him on shoting at the NHL level. None agreed with my suggestion that #67 just isn't a good omen for the Habs player.
See the reason
I'll be honest, I voted once as well, and I chose Hamilton, but even so.
I'll go out on a limb and say that most of you probably chose the same way for similar reasons. Pacioretty is not bad player. In fact, he's a very good one. He seems to prevent goals like few others on the team not wearing a trapper. Alas, I don't think that's what we fans had in mind for the boy.
Do we need a 20-year-old shut-down man? Or, should the team work with the skills the boy has to bring them out – as a scorer (or at least a decent passer)? Do the Habs leave him with what he can manage for now and let him develop habits to follow? Or, does management get the youngster used to playing in scoring situation against competition he can actually compete with in that way?
It's a classic question, but a pertinent one, I think. Pacioretty was drafted highly because he could skate, is big and uses his body and balance well, and wasn't no slouch around the net. He's still that guy, but he's being trained to choose differently now: go outside, because you lose it inside; don't shoot, you can't score on NHL goalies; dump all the time, people anticipate your passes. His intelligence is to be lauded for adapting, but his confidence seems scarily shrunken.
The best development projects
In deciding what to do, I think it's worth a look at the best development projects on this team: Plekanec, Andrei Kostitsyn; and to contrast with the limper results: Sergei Kostitsyn.
Both Tomas and Andrei got good time and minutes in Hamilton. Both had top billing on the team and filled important roles. Once in the NHL, they came with some confidence and after some delay began to confidently deliver what was asked: goals.
Contrast with Sergei Kostitsyn who had almost no time in Hamilton and despite a quick NHL start has found it hard to crack defenders without also making mistakes (and getting benched). He too learns, and what he has learned is that to play, play safe.
Pacioretty may never score 20 goals in the NHL, but that was once the hope. I am of the belief that one way to ensure he never develops a scoring touch is to continue this way (i.e., options a) and b)). Hamilton may not be the answer, but it's probably better than the alternative.
In the meantime, how does it affect the Habs? Well they don't lose much offense that I'm aware of. They will of course lose a forward with a defensive conscience. The return of Sergei could offset that though. What's more, there are forwards to do that job with a call up or a waiver pick (Mathieu Darche, anyone?).
Thanks for all your responses, the surveys certainly add insight into this team and and indeed its fans. See the new poll on Max's replacement on the Plekanec line in the right-hand column.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Habs Goalie Threatens Bower's Record
No this isn't an article on Carey Price, nor plea to trade Halak.
Merely to inform you all of something that has probably been completely overlooked by most fans.
Last night, the Hamilton Bulldogs won a thrilling contest in which they scored 5 goals, and won by a large margin. However after the final buzzer, coach Guy Boucher had a sour taste in his mouth. He had just been informed that the goal his team allowed was one that prevented Cedrick Desjardins from breaking a record that had stood for more than 52 years, a record of Johnny Bower's:
The streak that Desjardins did lay down was a mere 212 minutes and 37 seconds (or 3.5 games in the end). His bumbling teammates were too focused on their own selfish targets for goals for and allowed a breakdown to happen – for shame.
Anyway, in the midst of all this streaking, Desjardins has also managed to vault himself into the second ranking in the entire AHL for GAA and third for S%. And what numbers too, 1.57 and 0.940 respectively.
It bodes well for either the Habs goaltending depth, or the Habs defenders knowing what they need to do to make a goalie look good in the real show. Especially if you consider that Sanfor, who has played in the teams other 16 games is clocking 2.14 and 0.921 himself.
My thoughts do go out to the people who actually watch this league, though, as 14 goalies saving more then 92% of shots and 3 saving more than 94% doesn't say too much for the quality of shooters, nor bode well for the quality of the spectacle...
Merely to inform you all of something that has probably been completely overlooked by most fans.
Last night, the Hamilton Bulldogs won a thrilling contest in which they scored 5 goals, and won by a large margin. However after the final buzzer, coach Guy Boucher had a sour taste in his mouth. He had just been informed that the goal his team allowed was one that prevented Cedrick Desjardins from breaking a record that had stood for more than 52 years, a record of Johnny Bower's:
“Since 1957! Now I’m really ticked,” said Bulldogs coach Guy Boucher when he was told how close his goaltender was to a record that had stood for more than 50 years.
The streak that Desjardins did lay down was a mere 212 minutes and 37 seconds (or 3.5 games in the end). His bumbling teammates were too focused on their own selfish targets for goals for and allowed a breakdown to happen – for shame.
Anyway, in the midst of all this streaking, Desjardins has also managed to vault himself into the second ranking in the entire AHL for GAA and third for S%. And what numbers too, 1.57 and 0.940 respectively.
It bodes well for either the Habs goaltending depth, or the Habs defenders knowing what they need to do to make a goalie look good in the real show. Especially if you consider that Sanfor, who has played in the teams other 16 games is clocking 2.14 and 0.921 himself.
My thoughts do go out to the people who actually watch this league, though, as 14 goalies saving more then 92% of shots and 3 saving more than 94% doesn't say too much for the quality of shooters, nor bode well for the quality of the spectacle...
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Latendresse Vs. Pouliot
Season Preview All Over Again
In the style of the beloved season previews, I offer to you Benoit Pouliot's belated preview next to the now very optimistic-looking one we did for Latendresse in September. While it certainly shows we lost a good player who many of us thought had some promise, it also reveals some surprises about the new Canadiens forward.
Guillaume Latendresse
Legend
Stats notes
You could go many ways in interpreting these stats. Many numbers show clear decline, despite the progress that Gui is touted for. On the other hand, there is some stability within them too. The things to note:
1) Gui shoots straight
It's perhaps not that surprising that the skill that got him to the NHL is the one that stands out. 12.0% in an off year is not a stat I'd ever sneeze at.
2) Good production at even strength, considering
About a goal every 60 minutes of ice time is a good average to carry in you NHL career. Considering Gui's been bumped around lines a lot, not been given primo PP time and played with chance sink Kostopoulos a lot last year, then I find that encouraging. Hopefully he keeps up the pace.
3) Wonky even strength profile
As much as I'd like to think that Gui is one of the best defensive forwards on the team, the fact that I do have eyes helps me over the feeling. His profile shows us the danger of taking things out of context. Last season, Gui played at all the right times and missed the worst Price/Halak had to offer. Has it skewed the profile? Is Guillaume really 2nd best in Corsi? Perhaps the Canadiens lost all those games because he was injured? Impossible to tell for certain in a one-off experiment, but again, we do all have eyes, and sense.
As we've mentioned, 2009-10 is a big season for Latendresse. Because let's face it, another 14-16 goal campaign, while fine, certainly doesn't add to the lustre of the future 30-goal man argument. And, if it is to be 15 goals a year from here on in, then someone, somewhere is bound to surpass him, at least in terms of potential.
His shooting accuracy teamed with a new approach to shooting more should help. His defensive game and any improvement in the purpose of his hitting will make this line a very threatening one.
Tobalev on Latendresse
For some reason I am excited about Latendresse this year. Maybe it is because I see him as the best of the players from my home province, maybe it's because he is one of the longest serving Habs, or maybe it is because I actually sense a big season coming on. Whatever happens with goals and assists, Latendresse is still a player that wants to play for the Habs and generally tries pretty hard, despite some talent shortcomings.
Unfortunately for Gui, however, nothing is guaranteed. There are signs, after all that point to him not having that great of a season. His production levels have been stable for 3 years, he seems to be getting slower and he may very well get crowded out of the top-6/PP.
On the positive side, I think his new status on the team (best Quebecer) will help him, especially early in the season. Many fans and new teammates will look to him now as a leader and not just a prospect. If he can get in Martin’s good books and get himself onto a scoring line early on then I could see him there all year. If he makes the most of these chances when provided, the outlook could brighten in a hurry – I really think he could score 25 goals.
The more likely scenario, however, is that he gets bounced between the top 3 lines and into/out of the PP (thanks to injuries, slumps etc.). This will hurt his production and that is why I think he’ll likely top out at 30-35 points with most of those coming as goals.
Where Latendresse will start 2009-10: Carrying the torch for millions
Where Latendresse will end 2009-10: With a new appreciation for what he can do in this league
Points: 21 G, 24 A, 45 Pts
Benoit Pouliot
Legend
Stats notes
The first impression when looking at these stats side by side is something like: "My goodness, we were fleeced..." But as we know statistics do need interpreting. And, as we all recall, Guillaume's stats from last year flattered him. As this was a trade, we'll do this a bit differently, pointing out a few differences I think it is absolutely vital to note. Note also, that being a Habs fan who wants to view this trade in a positive light, I'll leave the negative comparisons to you readers to make:
1) Shot totals
Prior to this season, Benoit Pouliot managed a measly 45 shots in 51 games. Guillaume had that many shots in his NHL career well before his 20th birthday. It's worth noting because whether it be linemates, coaching or something else, Pouliot has just never had the chance to let loose his shot (of similar accuracy based on %) compared to Gui. Is he a Sergei Kostitsyn who holds and hold and holds? Perhaps, but the scouts in 2005 didn't think so.
2) Defensive numbers
Guillaume from his profile showed a good defensive player (though we mentioned this was puzzling to those who had observed him). Pouliot really does one up him. Now before you go and say that Benoit has benefited from being on the Wild, do first consider that his 1.53 GA/60 was third on the team after Boogaard and Kolanos. Other young forwards like Clutterbuck (2.11) and James Sheppard (2.84) lagged behind his defensive responsibility greatly. What's more only Pouliot came out positive on +/- from the youngsters. Not all bad from the guy with 14 previous games under his belt.
3) Games played
I alluded to experience in shots. Well, Pouliot (from the same draft year as Latendresse) has played 167 less games in all. This is also critical for waivers. Benoit Pouliot signed his first NHL contract in May 2006 at age 19. As such, it set the clock on his waiver exemption to 4 seasons or 160 games (whichever came first). Given that he's nowhere near reaching 160 games anytime soon, it means the time limit on him seeing waivers will be the outset of next season. Of course, for the Canadiens, this provides another player they can ship up and down to Hamilton (like Sergei Kostitsyn, Pyatt, White, etc.). Guillaume Latendresse would have had to clear waivers to go to Hamilton, which had been the case since his 160th game early last season. No matter how few goals he scored, how badly he sulked or how much he needed a wake up call – Gainey's hands were tied on Guillaume. Don't underestimate this factor in the trade that just occurred.
A simple glance at the stats says loss for Gainey in this file. But under a bit more scrutiny, Gainey has manufactured a bit more flex with his roster by simply trading one 2-goalscorer with potential to do more for another. When injuries heal, I truly think this flexibility will tip the balance in the Habs favour, espeically if Sulkatron-2000 was going to react to benching anything like he reacted to be being traded.
Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier
Guillaume Latendresse
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | GWG | G/60 | Pts/60 | Sh | S% | PIM |
| 08-09 (MTL) | 56 | 14 | 12 | 26 | +4 | 1 | 2 | 1.10 | 2.05 | 117 | 12.0 | 45 |
| 07-08 (MTL) | 73 | 16 | 11 | 27 | -2 | 2 | 3 | 1.07 | 1.81 | 116 | 13.8 | 41 |
| 06-07 (MTL) | 80 | 16 | 13 | 29 | -20 | 5 | 3 | 0.95 | 1.73 | 121 | 13.2 | 47 |
| Even-strength profile | |
 |
|
Stats notes
You could go many ways in interpreting these stats. Many numbers show clear decline, despite the progress that Gui is touted for. On the other hand, there is some stability within them too. The things to note:
1) Gui shoots straight
It's perhaps not that surprising that the skill that got him to the NHL is the one that stands out. 12.0% in an off year is not a stat I'd ever sneeze at.
2) Good production at even strength, considering
About a goal every 60 minutes of ice time is a good average to carry in you NHL career. Considering Gui's been bumped around lines a lot, not been given primo PP time and played with chance sink Kostopoulos a lot last year, then I find that encouraging. Hopefully he keeps up the pace.
3) Wonky even strength profile
As much as I'd like to think that Gui is one of the best defensive forwards on the team, the fact that I do have eyes helps me over the feeling. His profile shows us the danger of taking things out of context. Last season, Gui played at all the right times and missed the worst Price/Halak had to offer. Has it skewed the profile? Is Guillaume really 2nd best in Corsi? Perhaps the Canadiens lost all those games because he was injured? Impossible to tell for certain in a one-off experiment, but again, we do all have eyes, and sense.
As we've mentioned, 2009-10 is a big season for Latendresse. Because let's face it, another 14-16 goal campaign, while fine, certainly doesn't add to the lustre of the future 30-goal man argument. And, if it is to be 15 goals a year from here on in, then someone, somewhere is bound to surpass him, at least in terms of potential.
His shooting accuracy teamed with a new approach to shooting more should help. His defensive game and any improvement in the purpose of his hitting will make this line a very threatening one.
Tobalev on Latendresse
For some reason I am excited about Latendresse this year. Maybe it is because I see him as the best of the players from my home province, maybe it's because he is one of the longest serving Habs, or maybe it is because I actually sense a big season coming on. Whatever happens with goals and assists, Latendresse is still a player that wants to play for the Habs and generally tries pretty hard, despite some talent shortcomings.
Unfortunately for Gui, however, nothing is guaranteed. There are signs, after all that point to him not having that great of a season. His production levels have been stable for 3 years, he seems to be getting slower and he may very well get crowded out of the top-6/PP.
On the positive side, I think his new status on the team (best Quebecer) will help him, especially early in the season. Many fans and new teammates will look to him now as a leader and not just a prospect. If he can get in Martin’s good books and get himself onto a scoring line early on then I could see him there all year. If he makes the most of these chances when provided, the outlook could brighten in a hurry – I really think he could score 25 goals.
The more likely scenario, however, is that he gets bounced between the top 3 lines and into/out of the PP (thanks to injuries, slumps etc.). This will hurt his production and that is why I think he’ll likely top out at 30-35 points with most of those coming as goals.
Where Latendresse will start 2009-10: Carrying the torch for millions
Where Latendresse will end 2009-10: With a new appreciation for what he can do in this league
Points: 21 G, 24 A, 45 Pts
Benoit Pouliot
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | GWG | G/60 | Pts/60 | Sh | S% | PIM |
| 08-09 (MIN) | 37 | 5 | 6 | 11 | +1 | 2 | 1 | 0.68 | 1.51 | 34 | 14.7 | 18 |
| 07-08 (MIN) | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1.24 | 1.86 | 10 | 20.0 | 0 |
| 06-07 (MIN) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Even-strength profile | |
 |
|
Stats notes
The first impression when looking at these stats side by side is something like: "My goodness, we were fleeced..." But as we know statistics do need interpreting. And, as we all recall, Guillaume's stats from last year flattered him. As this was a trade, we'll do this a bit differently, pointing out a few differences I think it is absolutely vital to note. Note also, that being a Habs fan who wants to view this trade in a positive light, I'll leave the negative comparisons to you readers to make:
1) Shot totals
Prior to this season, Benoit Pouliot managed a measly 45 shots in 51 games. Guillaume had that many shots in his NHL career well before his 20th birthday. It's worth noting because whether it be linemates, coaching or something else, Pouliot has just never had the chance to let loose his shot (of similar accuracy based on %) compared to Gui. Is he a Sergei Kostitsyn who holds and hold and holds? Perhaps, but the scouts in 2005 didn't think so.
2) Defensive numbers
Guillaume from his profile showed a good defensive player (though we mentioned this was puzzling to those who had observed him). Pouliot really does one up him. Now before you go and say that Benoit has benefited from being on the Wild, do first consider that his 1.53 GA/60 was third on the team after Boogaard and Kolanos. Other young forwards like Clutterbuck (2.11) and James Sheppard (2.84) lagged behind his defensive responsibility greatly. What's more only Pouliot came out positive on +/- from the youngsters. Not all bad from the guy with 14 previous games under his belt.
3) Games played
I alluded to experience in shots. Well, Pouliot (from the same draft year as Latendresse) has played 167 less games in all. This is also critical for waivers. Benoit Pouliot signed his first NHL contract in May 2006 at age 19. As such, it set the clock on his waiver exemption to 4 seasons or 160 games (whichever came first). Given that he's nowhere near reaching 160 games anytime soon, it means the time limit on him seeing waivers will be the outset of next season. Of course, for the Canadiens, this provides another player they can ship up and down to Hamilton (like Sergei Kostitsyn, Pyatt, White, etc.). Guillaume Latendresse would have had to clear waivers to go to Hamilton, which had been the case since his 160th game early last season. No matter how few goals he scored, how badly he sulked or how much he needed a wake up call – Gainey's hands were tied on Guillaume. Don't underestimate this factor in the trade that just occurred.
A simple glance at the stats says loss for Gainey in this file. But under a bit more scrutiny, Gainey has manufactured a bit more flex with his roster by simply trading one 2-goalscorer with potential to do more for another. When injuries heal, I truly think this flexibility will tip the balance in the Habs favour, espeically if Sulkatron-2000 was going to react to benching anything like he reacted to be being traded.
Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Kostitsyn vs. Gainey
Habs Won't Win The Way They've Been Going
Just a day or two ago, wasn't it, that we were full of Sergei's obvious change in attitude as he scored a couple of goals and made AHL defenders look like, well, AHL defenders.
It seems that Sergei was also full of the same bravado that day as (after reading our praise, probably) he took off to whereabouts unknown. The assumption from the Habs and agent was Russia, the reality is that they probably didn't look very hard. So from suspended to reformed hero to suspended to AHL commuter again – quite a drama down on the farm.
As the facts emerge, we may get to know more on the specifics, but know this – this is a standoff between Gainey and Sergei Kostitsyn. It is a wrangle over talent assessment, fairness, expectation, discipline and who's in charge. It didn't begin yesterday, it began a long time ago.
It goes back to 4th line duty, full-period benchings and of course that scandal and demotion that last saw Sergei in the AHL last February.
Sergei's beef, which several people (surprisingly Michel Bergeron among them) see eye to eye with is that the player has been wrongly overlooked. Anyone with a modicum of hockey watching experience can see he brings much more to the table than Greg Stewart, Matt D'Agostini, Kyle Chipchura or Georges Laraque, and probably more than Pacioretty, Latendresse and Maxim Lapierre. To put it succinctly, Sergei believes as do some others that he is the 6th most talented forward in the whole organization. he believes Gainey is cutting off his nose to spite his face.
On the other side, Gainey has a point. Sergei could be more mature, he could be more concentrated and more prompt. In Gainey's version, he must not only be setting an example to others with demands, but also thinking that Sergei could learn something from dominating the lower league and riding some buses again. He must think that this injection of fury could turn to desire and ultimately performance.
But really, setting an example? Who for?
If we read it as a lesson to other players, it's clear enough: Work hard, do what we ask of you and you will play and play well. It's a nice message. Now, I'm all for setting examples of people. but there comes a certain point when you have to ask, just who is Gainey trying to set an example for with Sergei Kostitsyn?
The next players in the depth chart talent-wise aren't learning anything, because they're all on the Habs despite their poor play and poor attention to detail in their work. While the players after Sergei in Hamilton are Ben Maxwell, Ryan White and Brock Trotter. If any one of them sees the NHL light of day in the next 5 years for any reason other than injuries, it would be a surprise.
My take here is that sometimes, at risk of upsetting the lesser lights, sometimes a GM just has to provide a little more care, a little more attention to the talent that matters. Since finding another 131-point OHLer in the 7th round will be hard and teaching those skills to the schleps that are on the farm already is a pipe dream, Gainey's imperative with Sergei needs to be to hold on to what he has, at least he can return his value in a trade.
I tend to agree with Michel Bergeron (twice in a day, I need a long bath...) who says:
He's right you know. Imagine, Chelios had been fined instead of traded. Ditto Corson first time around. If Patrick Kane were a Hab, he'd have been traded by now for fear of tarnishing the tradition of the past – a tradition so sacred that it may take 100 years of losing (seemingly) and a new tradition of total mediocrity to overturn.
If anything is clear from this debacle it is that Sergei is not responding to tough love – at least not without tender explanation on the side. He's a prima donna with some primo talents. If Gainey and co. continue to hard ball him, it appears that everyone will lose, most importantly the Habs.
I think it's high time they take stock of this situation and begin to channel a lot more effort into keeping their most talented prospects happy and wanted. If not, well mediocrity for years.
"We should stop drafting Russians..."
Of course, this whole series of events gives wonderful fodder to those who camped themselves under the anti-Kostitsyn flag. It's a popular place to be these days, and it will be interesting to see whether those there now will pretend this never happened just like when they kissed Kovalev's feet in 2007-08. Anyway, arguments on trading them, whether they should play and where are all bordering on fair. But I've seen quite a few nonsensical bits around starting to pop up about how the Habs are wasting their picks when they choose Russians (or former Soviet citizens at least).
I have to be frank, anyone who says we wasted a pick on Sergei Kostitsyn is more than mildly delusional. Sergei was picked 200th overall in the 7th round of the 2005 draft. Usually, one would be lucky to remember the name of a player like that. To have mined 108 NHL games out of that player in 4 seasons since the draft is remarkable.
Not only does this show me that the picks have not been wasted, it shows me that we need to keep drafting Russians (and Belarussians, Ukrainians, Kazakhs, Latvians, etc.). They simply offer more value for the pick.
People often wonder aloud how Detroit has managed to maintain their excellence over the past decade and they need not look any further than this same mentality they take into the draft. Whereas the Wings have been as dismal as the worst NHL clubs in picking up North American talent from well-scouted leagues, they have made a living out of taking chances where they know their chances will pay off. Fedorov, Konstantinov and Lidstrom made the first wave of the Wings dynasty tick. All looked like high risk picks to those that have neither the patience nor the whereabouts to develop a European talent into an NHL star. The fact that they have repeated the trick with Zetterberg, Franzen and Datsyuk only further proves the point.
Now that the Swedish scouting game has been blown wide open (see draft, 2009), Russia really represents the richest vein of talent at its most untapped. What's more, as more and more teams shy away from the hassle that a few long distance phone calls and maybe some disappointments after a long tease (instead of a retirement straight out of high school) good Russian talent is slipping further down the rounds. Witness the Canadiens taking the third Russian player in the draft this season at 109th overall. Now, even if he doesn't actually turn out to be the next Ovechkin, you could never convince me he won't be better than Nick Oliver taken 110th overall.
Best case scenarios
For the Habs there really are only two scenarios that work from here on with Sergei:
1) Gainey gets him to calm down long enough (months) to start excelling in the AHL, calls him up and then trades him for similar value
2) Gainey gets him to calm down long enough (days/weeks) to start playing in the AHL so the GM can save face, calls him up and he replaces the blank-firing youngsters we currently carry night-in, night-out on the roster with panache and attitude of his best vintage
I thoroughly hope that it ends up being one of these. As I indicate, both routes require a bit of work for Gainey, which we know is asking a lot in his holiday months of August to June...
It seems that Sergei was also full of the same bravado that day as (after reading our praise, probably) he took off to whereabouts unknown. The assumption from the Habs and agent was Russia, the reality is that they probably didn't look very hard. So from suspended to reformed hero to suspended to AHL commuter again – quite a drama down on the farm.
As the facts emerge, we may get to know more on the specifics, but know this – this is a standoff between Gainey and Sergei Kostitsyn. It is a wrangle over talent assessment, fairness, expectation, discipline and who's in charge. It didn't begin yesterday, it began a long time ago.
It goes back to 4th line duty, full-period benchings and of course that scandal and demotion that last saw Sergei in the AHL last February.
Sergei's beef, which several people (surprisingly Michel Bergeron among them) see eye to eye with is that the player has been wrongly overlooked. Anyone with a modicum of hockey watching experience can see he brings much more to the table than Greg Stewart, Matt D'Agostini, Kyle Chipchura or Georges Laraque, and probably more than Pacioretty, Latendresse and Maxim Lapierre. To put it succinctly, Sergei believes as do some others that he is the 6th most talented forward in the whole organization. he believes Gainey is cutting off his nose to spite his face.
On the other side, Gainey has a point. Sergei could be more mature, he could be more concentrated and more prompt. In Gainey's version, he must not only be setting an example to others with demands, but also thinking that Sergei could learn something from dominating the lower league and riding some buses again. He must think that this injection of fury could turn to desire and ultimately performance.
But really, setting an example? Who for?
If we read it as a lesson to other players, it's clear enough: Work hard, do what we ask of you and you will play and play well. It's a nice message. Now, I'm all for setting examples of people. but there comes a certain point when you have to ask, just who is Gainey trying to set an example for with Sergei Kostitsyn?
The next players in the depth chart talent-wise aren't learning anything, because they're all on the Habs despite their poor play and poor attention to detail in their work. While the players after Sergei in Hamilton are Ben Maxwell, Ryan White and Brock Trotter. If any one of them sees the NHL light of day in the next 5 years for any reason other than injuries, it would be a surprise.
My take here is that sometimes, at risk of upsetting the lesser lights, sometimes a GM just has to provide a little more care, a little more attention to the talent that matters. Since finding another 131-point OHLer in the 7th round will be hard and teaching those skills to the schleps that are on the farm already is a pipe dream, Gainey's imperative with Sergei needs to be to hold on to what he has, at least he can return his value in a trade.
I tend to agree with Michel Bergeron (twice in a day, I need a long bath...) who says:
Je crois qu’on est un peu trop puritains à Montréal. Les bons petits gars qui restent assis à manger des biscuits secs et à boire leur verre de lait, ce n’est pas toujours ceux qui te font gagner!
I think they're a bit too puritanical in Montreal. Good little boys who go to bed with milk and cookies – it's not always the best way to build a winner.
He's right you know. Imagine, Chelios had been fined instead of traded. Ditto Corson first time around. If Patrick Kane were a Hab, he'd have been traded by now for fear of tarnishing the tradition of the past – a tradition so sacred that it may take 100 years of losing (seemingly) and a new tradition of total mediocrity to overturn.
If anything is clear from this debacle it is that Sergei is not responding to tough love – at least not without tender explanation on the side. He's a prima donna with some primo talents. If Gainey and co. continue to hard ball him, it appears that everyone will lose, most importantly the Habs.
I think it's high time they take stock of this situation and begin to channel a lot more effort into keeping their most talented prospects happy and wanted. If not, well mediocrity for years.
"We should stop drafting Russians..."
Of course, this whole series of events gives wonderful fodder to those who camped themselves under the anti-Kostitsyn flag. It's a popular place to be these days, and it will be interesting to see whether those there now will pretend this never happened just like when they kissed Kovalev's feet in 2007-08. Anyway, arguments on trading them, whether they should play and where are all bordering on fair. But I've seen quite a few nonsensical bits around starting to pop up about how the Habs are wasting their picks when they choose Russians (or former Soviet citizens at least).
I have to be frank, anyone who says we wasted a pick on Sergei Kostitsyn is more than mildly delusional. Sergei was picked 200th overall in the 7th round of the 2005 draft. Usually, one would be lucky to remember the name of a player like that. To have mined 108 NHL games out of that player in 4 seasons since the draft is remarkable.
Not only does this show me that the picks have not been wasted, it shows me that we need to keep drafting Russians (and Belarussians, Ukrainians, Kazakhs, Latvians, etc.). They simply offer more value for the pick.
People often wonder aloud how Detroit has managed to maintain their excellence over the past decade and they need not look any further than this same mentality they take into the draft. Whereas the Wings have been as dismal as the worst NHL clubs in picking up North American talent from well-scouted leagues, they have made a living out of taking chances where they know their chances will pay off. Fedorov, Konstantinov and Lidstrom made the first wave of the Wings dynasty tick. All looked like high risk picks to those that have neither the patience nor the whereabouts to develop a European talent into an NHL star. The fact that they have repeated the trick with Zetterberg, Franzen and Datsyuk only further proves the point.
Now that the Swedish scouting game has been blown wide open (see draft, 2009), Russia really represents the richest vein of talent at its most untapped. What's more, as more and more teams shy away from the hassle that a few long distance phone calls and maybe some disappointments after a long tease (instead of a retirement straight out of high school) good Russian talent is slipping further down the rounds. Witness the Canadiens taking the third Russian player in the draft this season at 109th overall. Now, even if he doesn't actually turn out to be the next Ovechkin, you could never convince me he won't be better than Nick Oliver taken 110th overall.
Best case scenarios
For the Habs there really are only two scenarios that work from here on with Sergei:
1) Gainey gets him to calm down long enough (months) to start excelling in the AHL, calls him up and then trades him for similar value
2) Gainey gets him to calm down long enough (days/weeks) to start playing in the AHL so the GM can save face, calls him up and he replaces the blank-firing youngsters we currently carry night-in, night-out on the roster with panache and attitude of his best vintage
I thoroughly hope that it ends up being one of these. As I indicate, both routes require a bit of work for Gainey, which we know is asking a lot in his holiday months of August to June...
Monday, September 28, 2009
Canadiens Season Preview
Prospects At The Back
After days of putting out day after day of previews, wouldn't you know that the first time people start congratulating us is the same day we slip and miss a day. Perhaps not slip, but in not wanting to lose my hockey pool, I spent the time compiling my lists for that instead. Mind you, I still ended up with the most questionable goalies as I do every year.
Anyway, as the title of the post suggests, this is my look at the below NHL prospects on defence. As with the forwards, I had neither as much data or as much drive to do a full-blown analysis of each of these guys. So instead, it's just some thoughts possibly mixed with scouts' thoughts and random stats. In any case, the preview wouldn't be complete without something on Alex Henry, so here we go.
Potential call-ups
1) PK Subban
With Yannick Weber on the "NHLer" list, there's absolutely no doubt who the top prospect at the back is. PK Subban, junior star, Team Canada star, high draft pick, media darling has skills and personality to make it.
What's most exciting about PK is not his accomplishment with the indomitable Team Canada, nor his more than point-per-game from defence last year, but his personal skill set. Unlike some players who win, but you can't really put a finger on why. With PK it's easy – it's his skating. As a pretty pitiful hockey player myself, I know that being unable to keep up on skates puts me at an immediate disadvantage in nearly every situation on the ice. I can only imagine the other guys must be thinking the same, only in terms of advantage. Well, PK has that advantage in spades. He had it over most junior pretenders, and from what little I've seen, I'd say he'll have it in the NHL one day too. It seems that because he's practiced his skating through drills rather than simple reliance on game day that he can do things to make it look as though he was born with blades on his feet. You'd better watch:
With skill like that, PK can already offer a talent that puts him among the elite in the NHL. Oh, that hockey were only about skating and going forward. The reason PK is not up with the team today, and the reason that Yannick Weber has surpassed him at several different steps now is because of defence – you know, the position he purportedly plays? It remains the question at this time, perhaps the only question. But luckily defence is something that can be learned with some dedicated study. And though all his highlights display amazing rushes, you might have noticed the hole where brilliant, or even simple effective pass would normally fit for a Dman.
There's a definite place for Subban and his crazy feet in the NHL. The question for the Canadiens is whether there is a place for him on a team with Andrei Markov. And possibly Yannick Weber. If he shows he can be a defensive asset in Hamilton, the answer will be an unquestionable yes. If he can't, the onus will be on Gainey to find the team who needs the offense from the back and can afford to forgo him playing his position as others might.
2) Mathieu Carle
If PK has problems finding a place on the offensively laden blueline in Montreal, imagine 3rd in line Mathieu Carle.
Long-term it would take some moves to see a real place for Carle up on the Habs. Short term, however, he has a few aces to play in order to expedite his call up.
The first is his age. 22 now, he may be more mature and better able to see where team game outweighs individual game than some proteges. The second is his direct experience in Hamilton. As mentioned, it's not been an overwhelming success, but at the same time he has shown he can do a job for a successful team against pros.
Third, and I'm loathe to say it, but it's the fact he is Quebecois. I'm not saying that he'll be brought up just to make up numbers, but the company line has always been at equal value, we'll choose the local lad. Well, for the brief period before PK really gets any AHL experience of his own, Carle is holding at least that equal card, if not a slightly better one. What's more, we've seen this decision exercised already at camp with the first cuts, and there's no reason to think it won't hold until mid-winter.
3) Shawn Belle
I probably made more fuss than was necessary for Shawn Belle attending early skates, but I did think it showed a good attitude form him at least.
If you want to read about the best of Shawn Belle, I've done that bit already (near the bottom of the piece). What has transpired since the writing of that article, however, has led to some extra conclusions. The first is that Shawn Belle is no panacea – he would be a replacement with plenty of faults, a player who would make mistakes. The second is that he has been properly assigned to Hamilton – the players ahead of him in this depth analysis are indeed better at the moment. Finally, that for all his attitude coming early, he perhaps hasn't quite grasped how his NHL dream is slipping by. His average showing at camp has been wildly surpassed by the man we put on notice (Ryan O'Byrne).
Shawn could be a call up, but really he has to do more to impress if he wants to make it stick. Hamilton is a valuable training ground for a defender like Belle, and another season like his last, on a winning team, could mean knocks on Gainey's door about a depth defenceman in a trade, if not in Montreal.
4) Andre Benoit
Andre's back with the Bulldogs after tow very successful seasons in Europe. But what stands in Andre's way is the same solid group of defenders that stand in every other offensive Dman's path.
What seems to be clear from his statistics and reports is that Benoit could step in and do the job. However, depth, salaries and midsets being what they are, it would take a lot of bodies going down, specifically from the PP rearguard for this to ever happen for Benoit. Still, he's 4th in line here because of his stellar junior record, his experience in the AHL and his clear determination to give this NHL thing another go. Don't look for him in many games, but you never know, one or two could be in the cards.
5) Alex Henry
Alex Henry, my goodness. I did have some stats on him, but not many. I can tell you that during his 2 game stint last season with the Habs he managed to do so poorly with his 10 minutes that he comes at the bottom of nearly every category we looked at in the league. So badly that one stats site I was looking at found that Mathieu Schneider's stats were being dragged through the dirt by virtue of him having worn the same number as Henry (a bit of computer confusion).
So why even mention him? Well for one thing, he's playing in Hamilton's top 6, making him call-up material. For another, he does quite well down there. While it's not time to write Henry off altogether (he is massive), it seems that his skating and awareness might be more AHL level at this point in time.
6) Michael Busto
Finally, Michael Busto – that other guy from the Higgins trade. How does 6 years in the WHL strike you? I'm not sure I've ever seen that. Sure by the time he left, he was posting good stats, but he was the 210 lb 21-year-old playing against teenagers.
His next seasons were in the ECHL, so take that for what it is. In the end, it seems that Busto was either a guy Sather wanted off the books (unlikely he micromanages that much) or that he was simply brought in to replace TJ Kemp in Hamilton and nothing more. Don't go out and buy your Busto sweater anytime soon.
Not at camp
1) Alexei Emelin
Another NHL-ready, contractually tied player in the organization. It is reported that Emelin spurned the Canadiens, though like Valentenko, you have to wonder what the team was offering this able pro.
Skill-wise, Emelin is the best immediate fit for the Canadiens. He plays sound hockey, he plays rough, he plays in that gray area of the rules. Emelin is exactly the type of player that a young goalie tandem need – someone to make opposing forwards think before entering the zone. Someone who serves notice that shots from good positions are something that shooters will have to pay for with bruises.
Anyway, this year is fait accompli, he's at Kazan. If the allegations of an out clause are true, he could replace Mara next season. If not, it'll be at least two more.
2) David Fischer
Hockey's Future says:
I have to seriously question that assertion. If the club were high on Fischer, I wonder whether they'd really be leaving him in a program that clearly isn't vaulting him to a future of NHL stardom – certainly now they have their mentor/coach Guy Boucher in place on the farm.
That said, Fischer is still one for the plans. While McDonagh was the better absolute prospect, in the Canadiens scheme where Markov, Gorges, Weber and Subban figure in the future, Fischer as the 6'3" now more defensive defenceman (out of necessity) is a better organizational fit.
When he was drafted in 2006, Fischer was a tall 2006 Mr. Hockey with talent to progress offensively and defensively. As time has passed, things haven't gone quite as well as the optimists thought. Though he is still 2006 Mr. Hockey, he also now holds the inauspicious title of 2007, 2008, 2009 Mr. 4th defenceman (I now get overtaken by younger players at our school) Wisconsin. His offensive game looks ever dwindling, and he's no Ken Daneyko. It's a tale of talent analysis gone off, but not so far that he's out of the picture. A 6th defenceman out of a first round pick (with Varlamov, Berglund and Giroux right behind) isn't great, but it's better than nothing.
3) Konstantin Korneev
This guy is a forgotten prospect. I mean truly off the radar. In deciding whether I should even continue mentioning his name, I did a search and found the Habs still maintain a player page for him.
He's worth mentioning though, because though 25 is old to import a player, he's already a star in the Russian pro ranks and for the senior national team at times. It would probably take massive roster overhaul again, a transfer agreement and a few other minor miracles to ever see him in bleu, blanc, rouge, but as non-NHLers go, he ranks for us.
4) Mac Bennett
The scouting reports say good skater, good instincts and most irrelevant of all (hi Keith Gretzky and Brian Sakic) bloodlines. If that's all you read and saw you'd be pretty stoked. Mac has added some context to the reports by attending a couple of camps with the Habs now. Impressive at the development camp and again at rookie camp, initial signs are good.
The fact that Mac Bennett has suddenly appeared at #14 on the list of Canadiens prospects at Hockey's Future probably speaks more to the prospects below him than it might about him. While Mac certainly provides intrigue, the fact remains no one in the Habs organization, nor likely any of the fans writing up about him, have seen him playing real games against anyone that isn't at a US high school. For every one Sean Hill, there are ten or twenty Steve McCools, Matt Shasbys and Kishels.
What's more, this is the very easiest time to be raving about a player like Bennett. We know he had a good season because he was drafted. The question always remains with any of these prospects – will it translate into another? Will it be duplicated at a higher level? We'll see. This season he is still in a high school league, so our answer may have to wait until Michigan 2011.
5) Niklas Torp
Torp to me sounds like the Swedish Emelin. Not giant, not great offensively, but an abrasive defender who makes people work for their space. Last year was not a year of distinction for Niklas. However, as a 19-year-old defensive defenceman in a men's league, what would one really expect.
This year has started out nicely for the youngster, and he's definitely grabbed a regular spot on the Jonkoping team. Let's not get too carried away, but he does already have more points than last season after 3 games. I think it's more of an indication of increased role than any sudden offensive awakening – still a good sign there.
6) Greg Pateryn
I'll forgive you for overlooking the guy we got for Grabovski, he's pretty low down the chart. There's not much to say yet about Pateryn. He has had one season at Michigan as a part-timer and is now vying to stake a place as a 19-year-old there. As for Montreal, one can't really see him taking less time than Fischer has been, so his pro career, if it ever gets going at all, will likely be another 3 years away.
7) Joe Stejskal
Here's another in the long list of American high school defeders in the Habs system. Outstanding high school (well, of course, he was drafted after all), but lacklustre in college thus far. It says that he's had time on the top pairing, which certainly shows any offensive prowess we thought he might have had might not be as natural to him as some. Furthermore, he's playing at Dartmouth, not Boston, not Michigan. While great for his academic career, the men in green don't immediately spring to mind when thinking of future NHLers.
He's still young enough that 2 more seasons of college could turn his career around, but you won't find any of my money on that. His saving grace is that he isn't 5'10".
Anyway, as the title of the post suggests, this is my look at the below NHL prospects on defence. As with the forwards, I had neither as much data or as much drive to do a full-blown analysis of each of these guys. So instead, it's just some thoughts possibly mixed with scouts' thoughts and random stats. In any case, the preview wouldn't be complete without something on Alex Henry, so here we go.
Potential call-ups
1) PK Subban
With Yannick Weber on the "NHLer" list, there's absolutely no doubt who the top prospect at the back is. PK Subban, junior star, Team Canada star, high draft pick, media darling has skills and personality to make it.
What's most exciting about PK is not his accomplishment with the indomitable Team Canada, nor his more than point-per-game from defence last year, but his personal skill set. Unlike some players who win, but you can't really put a finger on why. With PK it's easy – it's his skating. As a pretty pitiful hockey player myself, I know that being unable to keep up on skates puts me at an immediate disadvantage in nearly every situation on the ice. I can only imagine the other guys must be thinking the same, only in terms of advantage. Well, PK has that advantage in spades. He had it over most junior pretenders, and from what little I've seen, I'd say he'll have it in the NHL one day too. It seems that because he's practiced his skating through drills rather than simple reliance on game day that he can do things to make it look as though he was born with blades on his feet. You'd better watch:
With skill like that, PK can already offer a talent that puts him among the elite in the NHL. Oh, that hockey were only about skating and going forward. The reason PK is not up with the team today, and the reason that Yannick Weber has surpassed him at several different steps now is because of defence – you know, the position he purportedly plays? It remains the question at this time, perhaps the only question. But luckily defence is something that can be learned with some dedicated study. And though all his highlights display amazing rushes, you might have noticed the hole where brilliant, or even simple effective pass would normally fit for a Dman.
There's a definite place for Subban and his crazy feet in the NHL. The question for the Canadiens is whether there is a place for him on a team with Andrei Markov. And possibly Yannick Weber. If he shows he can be a defensive asset in Hamilton, the answer will be an unquestionable yes. If he can't, the onus will be on Gainey to find the team who needs the offense from the back and can afford to forgo him playing his position as others might.
2) Mathieu Carle
If PK has problems finding a place on the offensively laden blueline in Montreal, imagine 3rd in line Mathieu Carle.
Long-term it would take some moves to see a real place for Carle up on the Habs. Short term, however, he has a few aces to play in order to expedite his call up.
The first is his age. 22 now, he may be more mature and better able to see where team game outweighs individual game than some proteges. The second is his direct experience in Hamilton. As mentioned, it's not been an overwhelming success, but at the same time he has shown he can do a job for a successful team against pros.
Third, and I'm loathe to say it, but it's the fact he is Quebecois. I'm not saying that he'll be brought up just to make up numbers, but the company line has always been at equal value, we'll choose the local lad. Well, for the brief period before PK really gets any AHL experience of his own, Carle is holding at least that equal card, if not a slightly better one. What's more, we've seen this decision exercised already at camp with the first cuts, and there's no reason to think it won't hold until mid-winter.
3) Shawn Belle
I probably made more fuss than was necessary for Shawn Belle attending early skates, but I did think it showed a good attitude form him at least.
If you want to read about the best of Shawn Belle, I've done that bit already (near the bottom of the piece). What has transpired since the writing of that article, however, has led to some extra conclusions. The first is that Shawn Belle is no panacea – he would be a replacement with plenty of faults, a player who would make mistakes. The second is that he has been properly assigned to Hamilton – the players ahead of him in this depth analysis are indeed better at the moment. Finally, that for all his attitude coming early, he perhaps hasn't quite grasped how his NHL dream is slipping by. His average showing at camp has been wildly surpassed by the man we put on notice (Ryan O'Byrne).
Shawn could be a call up, but really he has to do more to impress if he wants to make it stick. Hamilton is a valuable training ground for a defender like Belle, and another season like his last, on a winning team, could mean knocks on Gainey's door about a depth defenceman in a trade, if not in Montreal.
4) Andre Benoit
Andre's back with the Bulldogs after tow very successful seasons in Europe. But what stands in Andre's way is the same solid group of defenders that stand in every other offensive Dman's path.
What seems to be clear from his statistics and reports is that Benoit could step in and do the job. However, depth, salaries and midsets being what they are, it would take a lot of bodies going down, specifically from the PP rearguard for this to ever happen for Benoit. Still, he's 4th in line here because of his stellar junior record, his experience in the AHL and his clear determination to give this NHL thing another go. Don't look for him in many games, but you never know, one or two could be in the cards.
5) Alex Henry
Alex Henry, my goodness. I did have some stats on him, but not many. I can tell you that during his 2 game stint last season with the Habs he managed to do so poorly with his 10 minutes that he comes at the bottom of nearly every category we looked at in the league. So badly that one stats site I was looking at found that Mathieu Schneider's stats were being dragged through the dirt by virtue of him having worn the same number as Henry (a bit of computer confusion).
So why even mention him? Well for one thing, he's playing in Hamilton's top 6, making him call-up material. For another, he does quite well down there. While it's not time to write Henry off altogether (he is massive), it seems that his skating and awareness might be more AHL level at this point in time.
6) Michael Busto
Finally, Michael Busto – that other guy from the Higgins trade. How does 6 years in the WHL strike you? I'm not sure I've ever seen that. Sure by the time he left, he was posting good stats, but he was the 210 lb 21-year-old playing against teenagers.
His next seasons were in the ECHL, so take that for what it is. In the end, it seems that Busto was either a guy Sather wanted off the books (unlikely he micromanages that much) or that he was simply brought in to replace TJ Kemp in Hamilton and nothing more. Don't go out and buy your Busto sweater anytime soon.
Not at camp
1) Alexei Emelin
Another NHL-ready, contractually tied player in the organization. It is reported that Emelin spurned the Canadiens, though like Valentenko, you have to wonder what the team was offering this able pro.
Skill-wise, Emelin is the best immediate fit for the Canadiens. He plays sound hockey, he plays rough, he plays in that gray area of the rules. Emelin is exactly the type of player that a young goalie tandem need – someone to make opposing forwards think before entering the zone. Someone who serves notice that shots from good positions are something that shooters will have to pay for with bruises.
Anyway, this year is fait accompli, he's at Kazan. If the allegations of an out clause are true, he could replace Mara next season. If not, it'll be at least two more.
2) David Fischer
Hockey's Future says:
The club remains high on their former first rounder and the former Minnesota Mr. Hockey has slowly but surely progressed in his development.
I have to seriously question that assertion. If the club were high on Fischer, I wonder whether they'd really be leaving him in a program that clearly isn't vaulting him to a future of NHL stardom – certainly now they have their mentor/coach Guy Boucher in place on the farm.
That said, Fischer is still one for the plans. While McDonagh was the better absolute prospect, in the Canadiens scheme where Markov, Gorges, Weber and Subban figure in the future, Fischer as the 6'3" now more defensive defenceman (out of necessity) is a better organizational fit.
When he was drafted in 2006, Fischer was a tall 2006 Mr. Hockey with talent to progress offensively and defensively. As time has passed, things haven't gone quite as well as the optimists thought. Though he is still 2006 Mr. Hockey, he also now holds the inauspicious title of 2007, 2008, 2009 Mr. 4th defenceman (I now get overtaken by younger players at our school) Wisconsin. His offensive game looks ever dwindling, and he's no Ken Daneyko. It's a tale of talent analysis gone off, but not so far that he's out of the picture. A 6th defenceman out of a first round pick (with Varlamov, Berglund and Giroux right behind) isn't great, but it's better than nothing.
3) Konstantin Korneev
This guy is a forgotten prospect. I mean truly off the radar. In deciding whether I should even continue mentioning his name, I did a search and found the Habs still maintain a player page for him.
He's worth mentioning though, because though 25 is old to import a player, he's already a star in the Russian pro ranks and for the senior national team at times. It would probably take massive roster overhaul again, a transfer agreement and a few other minor miracles to ever see him in bleu, blanc, rouge, but as non-NHLers go, he ranks for us.
4) Mac Bennett
The scouting reports say good skater, good instincts and most irrelevant of all (hi Keith Gretzky and Brian Sakic) bloodlines. If that's all you read and saw you'd be pretty stoked. Mac has added some context to the reports by attending a couple of camps with the Habs now. Impressive at the development camp and again at rookie camp, initial signs are good.
The fact that Mac Bennett has suddenly appeared at #14 on the list of Canadiens prospects at Hockey's Future probably speaks more to the prospects below him than it might about him. While Mac certainly provides intrigue, the fact remains no one in the Habs organization, nor likely any of the fans writing up about him, have seen him playing real games against anyone that isn't at a US high school. For every one Sean Hill, there are ten or twenty Steve McCools, Matt Shasbys and Kishels.
What's more, this is the very easiest time to be raving about a player like Bennett. We know he had a good season because he was drafted. The question always remains with any of these prospects – will it translate into another? Will it be duplicated at a higher level? We'll see. This season he is still in a high school league, so our answer may have to wait until Michigan 2011.
5) Niklas Torp
Torp to me sounds like the Swedish Emelin. Not giant, not great offensively, but an abrasive defender who makes people work for their space. Last year was not a year of distinction for Niklas. However, as a 19-year-old defensive defenceman in a men's league, what would one really expect.
This year has started out nicely for the youngster, and he's definitely grabbed a regular spot on the Jonkoping team. Let's not get too carried away, but he does already have more points than last season after 3 games. I think it's more of an indication of increased role than any sudden offensive awakening – still a good sign there.
6) Greg Pateryn
I'll forgive you for overlooking the guy we got for Grabovski, he's pretty low down the chart. There's not much to say yet about Pateryn. He has had one season at Michigan as a part-timer and is now vying to stake a place as a 19-year-old there. As for Montreal, one can't really see him taking less time than Fischer has been, so his pro career, if it ever gets going at all, will likely be another 3 years away.
7) Joe Stejskal
Here's another in the long list of American high school defeders in the Habs system. Outstanding high school (well, of course, he was drafted after all), but lacklustre in college thus far. It says that he's had time on the top pairing, which certainly shows any offensive prowess we thought he might have had might not be as natural to him as some. Furthermore, he's playing at Dartmouth, not Boston, not Michigan. While great for his academic career, the men in green don't immediately spring to mind when thinking of future NHLers.
He's still young enough that 2 more seasons of college could turn his career around, but you won't find any of my money on that. His saving grace is that he isn't 5'10".
Monday, September 21, 2009
Canadiens Season Preview:
Prospects Up Front
While I don't have the data, the time or the energy to continue reviewing each player down the Canadiens depth chart to the same extent as the roster players, I thought it would at least be useful to list who's next in line and add some thoughts and useful info for those that are interested.
I'll begin at the top, closest to the NHL and then proceed down the lineup. I should note that I am keeping those players who have no chance of playing in Montreal this season whatsoever in a separate pile for now – even though they mostly represent our top futures among the forwards.
Potential call-ups
1) Ben Maxwell
First in line for a call up seem to be Ben Maxwell. Personally, I'm not sure what to make of this player. From junior to the AHL, he certainly hasn't shown a desire or ability to dominate the play. And those who say he's big must certainly mean big relative to the Canadiens smallest players, since his height is a mere 6' and his weight must be below league average.
Either someone at Hockey's Future is really high on Maxwell (yet unable to express it in their writing) or the Canadiens are starting to scrape the barrel with prospects, because he's listed as the #2 prospect in the entire organization.
At best, I think Maxwell could be a solid second liner one day provided he can gel with a talent on the wing. For this season, I don't think he'll be given the chance to gel with anyone in the NHL. But he'd do well to think about that in the AHL – especially if Pacioretty is the guy.
2) Mathieu Darche
Second in line for a call up in my opinion will be Mathieu Darche. With the team as it is, Darche looks like a really smart signing from Gainey and BriseBois. It provides the team a player that can be brought up with likely waiver clearance that not only has NHL experience, but also in playing the commuter role.
At 33, the former McGill Redman is probably nearing the end of his NHL road; and one would think that his production will decline given time. Even so, Darche, if recalled, would give a credible two-way game on the fourth line (maybe even third) with the potential for a goal here and there.
Even without a call up, Darche's value on the Redmen alum team (oops, I mean Bulldogs) will be tangible. He knows the coaches, he has NHL stries to tell and he has pursued a career with some success while pushing through adversity. In short, he has character.
3) Ryan White
I've been noticing subtel name dropping going on quite a bit from coach Jacques. While he has nice things to say about almost everyone at this point, it seems like Ryan White has been singled out for some special praise.
Though he's coming from a long way back (see rough season in Hamilton), Ryan actually looks to me like a better bet than Maxwell. In fact, it looks to me like he's been sold short quite a bit along the way. For on thing, he has better WHL numbers than the supposedly visionary Maxwell. For another, at the same height his frame isn't just projectable to 200 lbs, it already carries that many – he's already bigger. The best quote to describe is this one, I thought, as it explains how people don't expect much going in, but somehow (without explanation) he impresses:
I don't expect Ryan to make the team right away, because his Hamilton numbers do lead to questions. However, if he starts well on the farm he could be an option come mid-winter.
4) Mikael Johansson
A Swede drafted by the Wings must be worth taking a chance on. He certainly has some attributes that make him an interesting prospect. However, in between his drafting and his signing in Montreal 6 years later, the Wings were right to note a lack of meteoric progress. That's why I have to believe that this season has been bookmarked as a trial for Mikael in the North American game, because Niklas Sundstrom II is not a player the Habs need just now.
Nonetheless, his talent and production in Sweden do count for something and put him higher on the list than the next tier of borderline talent. Because of his size, if and when he makes it to the NHL could well depend on who in the current lineup needs to be replaced. Though he might fit on a line with Latendresse and Cammalleri, it's harder to imagine him getting the call to centre Laarque and Moen.
5) Tom Pyatt
If you remember one thing about Tom Pyatt, remember this: he played for Team Canada twice, winning 2 gold medals.
That alone isn't that meaningful, but it does mean someone somewhere thinks he has something to offer, and not only that, he can deliver on the expectation with wins. Usually a Habs prospect plays in the WJC and we go gaga for years after (see Price, Carey), so his inconspicuous arrival is funny in that way. Perhaps it shows the kind of player he is, he did after all win the OHL's "Lady Byng" in 2007.
Hockey's future describes his talent:
That quote, together with his CV makes him stand out among our also rans. I don't expect many NHL games from Pyatt, but get the feeling that if he were called up, he'd be capable.
6) Brock Trotter
We're getting near the niche players now, but Brock is not one of them. By all accounts, Brock is a hard worker, plays hard and can adapt to many situations. He would be an ideal call up if not for being such a small guy – though I wouldn't flinch at adding another 5'10" player, I think the tolerance of more conventional pundits (and I imagine coaches) has been tested already.
That said, Brock isn't really banging down the door to the NHL either, nor do I expect him to. His 2 seasons in the AHL now have been OK, but he has also allowed himself to be overtaken in the depth chart. I expect this undrafted player may have to get used to that again this season.
7) David Desharnais
As I listened to fan game reviews yesterday, I'd have thought that David Desharnais was the next coming of Martin St Louis. But you know what, it doesn't really add up for me. While I'm sure he must have oodles of talent to score so many point in junior, it remains that he only actually scored 24 goals in the AHL.
While you have to credit his perseverance, the drop in production a AHL level from prolific to adequate doesn't raise the right flags for the NHL evaluators. Still, you never know – a rare chance taken could lead to great things – I'm just not betting on it today.
8) Andrew Conboy
Notorious for making the AHL simply because he got booted out of the NCAA. Not a great start, unless that is, you're hoping to be an intimidator at the NHL level.
At this point in his career, I don't think Andrew could really be aspiring to be much else, do you? His numbers when he made the jump to college certainly took most hope of the power moniker being attached to forward in his case. Still, his 9 goals in 14 playoff games in 2007-08 for Omaha are the one beacon of light here.
9) Mike Glumac
Career AHLer, I'm afraid. Still, is a useful player to have in Hamilton for his AHL prowess alone. And, should all 8 of these guys and more go down with flu or something, wouldn't be a disaster in the NHL.
10) Ryan Russell
The original Tom Pyatt. His progression is steady in the minor pro ranks, but you have to wonder where the progression is leading him. At this point, he looks far more a future Mike Glumac than he does a future Canadien. However, because of the nature of the 4th line in the NHL, his combination of skating, hard work and AHL hands could make him an able stand in.
11) Eric Neilson
No player has gone more out of his way to make an impression this fall in camp than Neilson. With the Canadiens, though, his sole purpose would be to fight. And while Gainey and co. seem to be wavering over how they feel about fighting, the fact that Laraque is still around spells no call up for Neilson. Should that change, then he'd have a lifeline.
12) Olivier Fortier
In my opinion, Fortier has no chance of playing an NHL game whatsoever this season. Though he won the Guy Carbonneau trophy, he's no Carbonneau yet. For one thing, Carbonneau had NHL calibre scoring and skating potential at junior level. His conversion to defensive specialist was abetted by these facets of his game. For Fortier, he's already gone down that route in junior, which is a red flag for me (see career, Chipchura).
What's more, his defensive game hasn't been tested against anyone other than what amounts to forwards from the weakest league in Canada. Hamilton will have to be a testing/training ground for him. It wouldn't hurt if he turned in some key offensive contributions along the way to make him look more than a next-generation Metropolit.
13) Dany Masse
Missing camp is a killer for Masse, and I'm sure he knows it. His evaluation, and thus promotion prospects, have been put on hold for now. And that goes for me too – since it's hard to judge how an overage junior on a league best team will fare against better players and goalies in both the AHL and NHL.
14) JT Wyman
Almost off the books, I'm sure. Wyman may once have been a prospect, he's now AHL filler. He should go the way of Duncan Milroy and Jonathan Ferland by the end of this season barring what would need to be a miracle turnaround and injection of talent.
Not at camp
1) Andreas Engqvist
NHL ready, but contractually tied, I'd keep an eye on Andreas' stats in Sweden if you want to get a look into a player that should figure in the Canadiens plans within a year or two.
2) Danny Kristo
From the sounds of it, Kristo has the offensive skills and speed to play in the NHL. The only things stopping him at the moment are a commitment to his NCAA club North Dakota and a few late signings in Montreal to fill the roster.
3) Steve Quailer
Qualier, to me, is the unheralded Canadiens draft pick. Good numbers in the USHL, followed by a decent start as a rookie at Northeastern have jumped Qualier into my sights, and I'm sure those of the team brass. If Latendresse doesn't pan out as a power forward, Qualier is the next one in line to try to take the mantle.
4) Louis Leblanc
Hard not to be impressed with Louis' career. I'm sure the coverage he's received already, and the coverage his Harvard career will get means I can forego a big preview here. I'll say this, if Plekanec still looks like a third liner next spring, then Louis might be having some talks about how far he wants to take his university education.
5) Alexander Avtsyn
A great draft pick with a lot of points in junior. He's still got a lot to prove at his next level to show he can ever play for the Habs, let alone be mentioned in the same breath as Ovechkin.
6) Joonas Nattinen
Another big centre who could get some career advice next spring depending on how the year goes for everyone. His career could go anywhere from here, so let's just sit back and cross our fingers.
7) Maxim Trunev
Timmins doesn't exactly have a 100% record, but some of his punts have come off (Mark Streit, Halak). To play this season again with Severstal Cherepovets, he is listed as a player to watch in the KHL by Hockey's Future.
8) Gabriel Dumont
The last player I will go out on a limb to note is Gabriel Dumont. He's already been demoted back to junior from the Canadiens camps. Talked up as a future Talbot/Lapierre type player, this season it will be critical for him to succeed on the Voltigeurs squad with a lesser cast. I think that if he does that, there will be no doubt about him reaching Montreal one day.
I'll begin at the top, closest to the NHL and then proceed down the lineup. I should note that I am keeping those players who have no chance of playing in Montreal this season whatsoever in a separate pile for now – even though they mostly represent our top futures among the forwards.
Potential call-ups
1) Ben Maxwell
First in line for a call up seem to be Ben Maxwell. Personally, I'm not sure what to make of this player. From junior to the AHL, he certainly hasn't shown a desire or ability to dominate the play. And those who say he's big must certainly mean big relative to the Canadiens smallest players, since his height is a mere 6' and his weight must be below league average.
Either someone at Hockey's Future is really high on Maxwell (yet unable to express it in their writing) or the Canadiens are starting to scrape the barrel with prospects, because he's listed as the #2 prospect in the entire organization.
At best, I think Maxwell could be a solid second liner one day provided he can gel with a talent on the wing. For this season, I don't think he'll be given the chance to gel with anyone in the NHL. But he'd do well to think about that in the AHL – especially if Pacioretty is the guy.
2) Mathieu Darche
Second in line for a call up in my opinion will be Mathieu Darche. With the team as it is, Darche looks like a really smart signing from Gainey and BriseBois. It provides the team a player that can be brought up with likely waiver clearance that not only has NHL experience, but also in playing the commuter role.
At 33, the former McGill Redman is probably nearing the end of his NHL road; and one would think that his production will decline given time. Even so, Darche, if recalled, would give a credible two-way game on the fourth line (maybe even third) with the potential for a goal here and there.
Even without a call up, Darche's value on the Redmen alum team (oops, I mean Bulldogs) will be tangible. He knows the coaches, he has NHL stries to tell and he has pursued a career with some success while pushing through adversity. In short, he has character.
3) Ryan White
I've been noticing subtel name dropping going on quite a bit from coach Jacques. While he has nice things to say about almost everyone at this point, it seems like Ryan White has been singled out for some special praise.
Though he's coming from a long way back (see rough season in Hamilton), Ryan actually looks to me like a better bet than Maxwell. In fact, it looks to me like he's been sold short quite a bit along the way. For on thing, he has better WHL numbers than the supposedly visionary Maxwell. For another, at the same height his frame isn't just projectable to 200 lbs, it already carries that many – he's already bigger. The best quote to describe is this one, I thought, as it explains how people don't expect much going in, but somehow (without explanation) he impresses:
"He’s not a great physical specimen, he’s not necessarily in great physical condition, but when we put him on the ice, he does nothing but win battles,” said Hitmen GM and head coach Kelly Kisio.
I don't expect Ryan to make the team right away, because his Hamilton numbers do lead to questions. However, if he starts well on the farm he could be an option come mid-winter.
4) Mikael Johansson
A Swede drafted by the Wings must be worth taking a chance on. He certainly has some attributes that make him an interesting prospect. However, in between his drafting and his signing in Montreal 6 years later, the Wings were right to note a lack of meteoric progress. That's why I have to believe that this season has been bookmarked as a trial for Mikael in the North American game, because Niklas Sundstrom II is not a player the Habs need just now.
Nonetheless, his talent and production in Sweden do count for something and put him higher on the list than the next tier of borderline talent. Because of his size, if and when he makes it to the NHL could well depend on who in the current lineup needs to be replaced. Though he might fit on a line with Latendresse and Cammalleri, it's harder to imagine him getting the call to centre Laarque and Moen.
5) Tom Pyatt
If you remember one thing about Tom Pyatt, remember this: he played for Team Canada twice, winning 2 gold medals.
That alone isn't that meaningful, but it does mean someone somewhere thinks he has something to offer, and not only that, he can deliver on the expectation with wins. Usually a Habs prospect plays in the WJC and we go gaga for years after (see Price, Carey), so his inconspicuous arrival is funny in that way. Perhaps it shows the kind of player he is, he did after all win the OHL's "Lady Byng" in 2007.
Hockey's future describes his talent:
Heart and soul player with good offensive instincts and good hands. Can play both ways, but his size and strength has thus far made for a difficult adjustment to professional play.
That quote, together with his CV makes him stand out among our also rans. I don't expect many NHL games from Pyatt, but get the feeling that if he were called up, he'd be capable.
6) Brock Trotter
We're getting near the niche players now, but Brock is not one of them. By all accounts, Brock is a hard worker, plays hard and can adapt to many situations. He would be an ideal call up if not for being such a small guy – though I wouldn't flinch at adding another 5'10" player, I think the tolerance of more conventional pundits (and I imagine coaches) has been tested already.
That said, Brock isn't really banging down the door to the NHL either, nor do I expect him to. His 2 seasons in the AHL now have been OK, but he has also allowed himself to be overtaken in the depth chart. I expect this undrafted player may have to get used to that again this season.
7) David Desharnais
As I listened to fan game reviews yesterday, I'd have thought that David Desharnais was the next coming of Martin St Louis. But you know what, it doesn't really add up for me. While I'm sure he must have oodles of talent to score so many point in junior, it remains that he only actually scored 24 goals in the AHL.
While you have to credit his perseverance, the drop in production a AHL level from prolific to adequate doesn't raise the right flags for the NHL evaluators. Still, you never know – a rare chance taken could lead to great things – I'm just not betting on it today.
8) Andrew Conboy
Notorious for making the AHL simply because he got booted out of the NCAA. Not a great start, unless that is, you're hoping to be an intimidator at the NHL level.
At this point in his career, I don't think Andrew could really be aspiring to be much else, do you? His numbers when he made the jump to college certainly took most hope of the power moniker being attached to forward in his case. Still, his 9 goals in 14 playoff games in 2007-08 for Omaha are the one beacon of light here.
9) Mike Glumac
Career AHLer, I'm afraid. Still, is a useful player to have in Hamilton for his AHL prowess alone. And, should all 8 of these guys and more go down with flu or something, wouldn't be a disaster in the NHL.
10) Ryan Russell
The original Tom Pyatt. His progression is steady in the minor pro ranks, but you have to wonder where the progression is leading him. At this point, he looks far more a future Mike Glumac than he does a future Canadien. However, because of the nature of the 4th line in the NHL, his combination of skating, hard work and AHL hands could make him an able stand in.
11) Eric Neilson
No player has gone more out of his way to make an impression this fall in camp than Neilson. With the Canadiens, though, his sole purpose would be to fight. And while Gainey and co. seem to be wavering over how they feel about fighting, the fact that Laraque is still around spells no call up for Neilson. Should that change, then he'd have a lifeline.
12) Olivier Fortier
In my opinion, Fortier has no chance of playing an NHL game whatsoever this season. Though he won the Guy Carbonneau trophy, he's no Carbonneau yet. For one thing, Carbonneau had NHL calibre scoring and skating potential at junior level. His conversion to defensive specialist was abetted by these facets of his game. For Fortier, he's already gone down that route in junior, which is a red flag for me (see career, Chipchura).
What's more, his defensive game hasn't been tested against anyone other than what amounts to forwards from the weakest league in Canada. Hamilton will have to be a testing/training ground for him. It wouldn't hurt if he turned in some key offensive contributions along the way to make him look more than a next-generation Metropolit.
13) Dany Masse
Missing camp is a killer for Masse, and I'm sure he knows it. His evaluation, and thus promotion prospects, have been put on hold for now. And that goes for me too – since it's hard to judge how an overage junior on a league best team will fare against better players and goalies in both the AHL and NHL.
14) JT Wyman
Almost off the books, I'm sure. Wyman may once have been a prospect, he's now AHL filler. He should go the way of Duncan Milroy and Jonathan Ferland by the end of this season barring what would need to be a miracle turnaround and injection of talent.
Not at camp
1) Andreas Engqvist
NHL ready, but contractually tied, I'd keep an eye on Andreas' stats in Sweden if you want to get a look into a player that should figure in the Canadiens plans within a year or two.
2) Danny Kristo
From the sounds of it, Kristo has the offensive skills and speed to play in the NHL. The only things stopping him at the moment are a commitment to his NCAA club North Dakota and a few late signings in Montreal to fill the roster.
3) Steve Quailer
Qualier, to me, is the unheralded Canadiens draft pick. Good numbers in the USHL, followed by a decent start as a rookie at Northeastern have jumped Qualier into my sights, and I'm sure those of the team brass. If Latendresse doesn't pan out as a power forward, Qualier is the next one in line to try to take the mantle.
4) Louis Leblanc
Hard not to be impressed with Louis' career. I'm sure the coverage he's received already, and the coverage his Harvard career will get means I can forego a big preview here. I'll say this, if Plekanec still looks like a third liner next spring, then Louis might be having some talks about how far he wants to take his university education.
5) Alexander Avtsyn
A great draft pick with a lot of points in junior. He's still got a lot to prove at his next level to show he can ever play for the Habs, let alone be mentioned in the same breath as Ovechkin.
6) Joonas Nattinen
Another big centre who could get some career advice next spring depending on how the year goes for everyone. His career could go anywhere from here, so let's just sit back and cross our fingers.
7) Maxim Trunev
"Our Euro scouts describe him as a combination of the two Kostitsyn brothers,” Timmins explained. “He was the MVP of the Mac’s midget tournament earlier this year in Calgary and he’s one of the youngest players in the draft.”
Timmins doesn't exactly have a 100% record, but some of his punts have come off (Mark Streit, Halak). To play this season again with Severstal Cherepovets, he is listed as a player to watch in the KHL by Hockey's Future.
8) Gabriel Dumont
The last player I will go out on a limb to note is Gabriel Dumont. He's already been demoted back to junior from the Canadiens camps. Talked up as a future Talbot/Lapierre type player, this season it will be critical for him to succeed on the Voltigeurs squad with a lesser cast. I think that if he does that, there will be no doubt about him reaching Montreal one day.
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
The Unexpected Guest
Shawn Belle Is Here?
Not sure if you've all been keeping tabs on the goings on in Brossard. I expect you have.
To go with all the raves about PK Subban's skating and Max Pacioretty's power-forwardiness, some of the best news to come out of the last few days has been the attendance of Canadiens veterans new and old at a series of little practices and skates.
When I looked down the player list, my first thoughts were of encouragement – mainly that so many players were already and raring to go. My second thought went to the players that were missing, such as Andrei Kostitsyn. I didn't alight there long. Finally, the thing that ended up jumping out of the page at me was the name Shawn Belle.
When you look at this list from Pat Hickey:
... you can see that the players listed are all familiar to us, either by their play or their appearance in the summer headlines. But Shawn Belle doesn't seem to belong. His appearance on the ice in Montreal seems a bit of a puzzle.
Now, I have no inkling as to whether Shawn was specifically invited, or whether the invitation was open for any of the Bulldogs players to join, but I think the fact that he was the only Bulldog in attendance speaks volumes – Mathieu Darche after all might even be in Montreal anyway. Allow me to speculate.
I think that Bob Gainey or Jacques Martin or whoever is in charge of invitations to the main camp must have given Shawn Belle a special phone call at some point along the way, perhaps with some gentle encouragement to come along and get ready to show his goods at this camp.
Why is this feasible?
For one thing, I believe he has a chance this year. He's big, physical and has NHL experience. I think if Ryan O'Byrne continues to flap about in the wind, that it would be just as likely for Shawn to take his place as trying to shoehorn in a green Yannick Weber into a defensive defenceman slot. For another thing, he's showed he can play a system (something Jacques Martin likes); and he's played the O'Byrne role before with Minnesota.
Belle may also have been asked in to make some credible competition for places hot up a bit sooner than it might have. Gainey might want to see if O'Byrne and the youngsters can respond to having another hungry candidate around, and for longer.
There's also another consideration here: a trade. If Bob Gainey is thinking of swinging a trade, even at this late juncture, the assets he is likely to move must include some defenceman (of which he has a wealth). In that scenario, Belle could either be one of the pieces, or indeed be asked to step in after the chips have fallen.
Whatever the case, Shawn Belle is here. He's come early. Ryan O'Byrne, don't say you haven't been warned.
Who are you Shawn Belle?
Not much more than a year ago, Shawn Belle was someone else's problem – a depth prospect who looked on track to take his place in the first rounder career graveyard. He became our business last July when Bob Gainey threw his second small centre of the offseason into a trade. Gone prospect we know and had big hopes for (Corey Locke), in unknown beast.
Since he's arrived, I have come to appreciate that Shawn Belle is an interesting player in the scheme of the organization. For one thing, he is quite a big guy – if not that tall, his 235 lb frame makes him one of the heaviest options to the coaches. That's even more important when one considers he's a big defensive-minded guy among smaller offensive-minded backliners in the pipeline. If I was to separate defensive prospects into two lists: one of potential Habs to fit PP duty and potential star future and another with defensive defencemen with highly affordable salaries; Shawn would come pretty high up the ranks. I'd have Emelin and Fischer ahead, but then neither or those guys is available now. Neither of those guys has a +19 season in Hamilton under their belt, nor any of Shawn's NHL games.
His history indicates everything the scouting reports say:
Somewhere else, I found this:
His potential was obviously noted early on, as he was drafted in the first round of the 2003 draft at position 30 by the St. Louis Blues. Following that, he was twice identified twice by Team Canada for participation at the World Juniors. His second medal at the tournament, his gold one, was earned as part of the team some call the deepest Canadian squad ever. All looked to be going rather smoothly indeed.
I suppose the first hiccough came with a trade from the Blues to the Stars. Leaving the organization that drafted you before you have played an NHL game is often hard to recover from. Nevertheless, the next season Shawn managed to jump from success in Tri-City to Dallas's minor league team in Iowa. Faring well enough for a rookie that year, it was to be short-lived with the Stars. Shawn was eventually appended in what was a big league deadline deal and shipped to the Wild.
The Minnesota system rubbing off or something else, Shawn went from being a potential offensive threat to simple big defender – a move that may facilitate his entry into the league one day. Two seasons in the AHL with Houston seemed to have turned Shawn into a reliable, if wholly unspectacular, piece of the team.
The latest chapter of his tale took place in Hamilton. To say it started well would be selling him short. I think were it not for waiver restrictions, Shawn would have been up in Montreal some time in November, because at that time he was leading a very average Hamilton defence with impressive +/- numbers. Indeed, Don Lever was quite positive about his new ward:
It ended up well enough as well for Shawn, as he led all defencemen on the season in +/- and even managed 13 points in the end. Obviously his 93 PIMs sound like they need to be trimmed.
That's how he ended up in Brossard this week. Whether next year's report includes NHL game reports or not appears to hang in the balance right now.
To go with all the raves about PK Subban's skating and Max Pacioretty's power-forwardiness, some of the best news to come out of the last few days has been the attendance of Canadiens veterans new and old at a series of little practices and skates.
When I looked down the player list, my first thoughts were of encouragement – mainly that so many players were already and raring to go. My second thought went to the players that were missing, such as Andrei Kostitsyn. I didn't alight there long. Finally, the thing that ended up jumping out of the page at me was the name Shawn Belle.
When you look at this list from Pat Hickey:
Newcomers Scott Gomez and Mike Cammalleri were among those getting an early start, and it's interesting that Sergei Kostitsyn was there without his older brother, Andrei.
Other players on hand were Roman Hamrlik, Guillaume Latendresse, Jaroslav Spacek, Maxim Lapierre, Shawn Belle, Glen Metropolit, Matt D'Agostini, Gregory Stewart, Travis Moen, Hal Gill and Jaroslav Halak.
... you can see that the players listed are all familiar to us, either by their play or their appearance in the summer headlines. But Shawn Belle doesn't seem to belong. His appearance on the ice in Montreal seems a bit of a puzzle.
Now, I have no inkling as to whether Shawn was specifically invited, or whether the invitation was open for any of the Bulldogs players to join, but I think the fact that he was the only Bulldog in attendance speaks volumes – Mathieu Darche after all might even be in Montreal anyway. Allow me to speculate.
I think that Bob Gainey or Jacques Martin or whoever is in charge of invitations to the main camp must have given Shawn Belle a special phone call at some point along the way, perhaps with some gentle encouragement to come along and get ready to show his goods at this camp.
Why is this feasible?
For one thing, I believe he has a chance this year. He's big, physical and has NHL experience. I think if Ryan O'Byrne continues to flap about in the wind, that it would be just as likely for Shawn to take his place as trying to shoehorn in a green Yannick Weber into a defensive defenceman slot. For another thing, he's showed he can play a system (something Jacques Martin likes); and he's played the O'Byrne role before with Minnesota.
Belle may also have been asked in to make some credible competition for places hot up a bit sooner than it might have. Gainey might want to see if O'Byrne and the youngsters can respond to having another hungry candidate around, and for longer.
There's also another consideration here: a trade. If Bob Gainey is thinking of swinging a trade, even at this late juncture, the assets he is likely to move must include some defenceman (of which he has a wealth). In that scenario, Belle could either be one of the pieces, or indeed be asked to step in after the chips have fallen.
Whatever the case, Shawn Belle is here. He's come early. Ryan O'Byrne, don't say you haven't been warned.
Who are you Shawn Belle?
Not much more than a year ago, Shawn Belle was someone else's problem – a depth prospect who looked on track to take his place in the first rounder career graveyard. He became our business last July when Bob Gainey threw his second small centre of the offseason into a trade. Gone prospect we know and had big hopes for (Corey Locke), in unknown beast.
Since he's arrived, I have come to appreciate that Shawn Belle is an interesting player in the scheme of the organization. For one thing, he is quite a big guy – if not that tall, his 235 lb frame makes him one of the heaviest options to the coaches. That's even more important when one considers he's a big defensive-minded guy among smaller offensive-minded backliners in the pipeline. If I was to separate defensive prospects into two lists: one of potential Habs to fit PP duty and potential star future and another with defensive defencemen with highly affordable salaries; Shawn would come pretty high up the ranks. I'd have Emelin and Fischer ahead, but then neither or those guys is available now. Neither of those guys has a +19 season in Hamilton under their belt, nor any of Shawn's NHL games.
His history indicates everything the scouting reports say:
ASSETS: Owns an impressive physical package and plenty of athleticism for a blueliner. Is willing to make his presence felt with strong hits in the defensive zone.
FLAWS: Lacks the hockey sense required to maximize his potential. Is not a scoring threat at all, despite the tools to do so. Takes a lot of bad penalties.
CAREER POTENTIAL: Top six defenseman.
Somewhere else, I found this:
Belle has the attributes to be a Komisarek-type player in the NHL. He's big and strong and is noted as an outstanding skater.
His potential was obviously noted early on, as he was drafted in the first round of the 2003 draft at position 30 by the St. Louis Blues. Following that, he was twice identified twice by Team Canada for participation at the World Juniors. His second medal at the tournament, his gold one, was earned as part of the team some call the deepest Canadian squad ever. All looked to be going rather smoothly indeed.
I suppose the first hiccough came with a trade from the Blues to the Stars. Leaving the organization that drafted you before you have played an NHL game is often hard to recover from. Nevertheless, the next season Shawn managed to jump from success in Tri-City to Dallas's minor league team in Iowa. Faring well enough for a rookie that year, it was to be short-lived with the Stars. Shawn was eventually appended in what was a big league deadline deal and shipped to the Wild.
The Minnesota system rubbing off or something else, Shawn went from being a potential offensive threat to simple big defender – a move that may facilitate his entry into the league one day. Two seasons in the AHL with Houston seemed to have turned Shawn into a reliable, if wholly unspectacular, piece of the team.
The latest chapter of his tale took place in Hamilton. To say it started well would be selling him short. I think were it not for waiver restrictions, Shawn would have been up in Montreal some time in November, because at that time he was leading a very average Hamilton defence with impressive +/- numbers. Indeed, Don Lever was quite positive about his new ward:
"He's a first-round pick and the potential is there. He's a hard worker. I have no complaint with the way he works. I have a hard time believing that he only had three points last year. He's got the free reins here as long as he gets back to where he's supposed to be."
It ended up well enough as well for Shawn, as he led all defencemen on the season in +/- and even managed 13 points in the end. Obviously his 93 PIMs sound like they need to be trimmed.
That's how he ended up in Brossard this week. Whether next year's report includes NHL game reports or not appears to hang in the balance right now.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Denis Out, Sanford In
Desjardins Bumped To 4th In Queue
It must be quite a laugh for Bob Gainey and former Panthers GM Jacques Martin. While Bob is scooping up his 8th new addition to the organization through free agency – their chief playoff rival from last spring has done nothing other than take one step sideways (signing Scott Clemmenson to replace Craig Anderson) and four steps back (signing Leopold as a replacement for Bouwmeester, whose rights they acquired in that late June trade).
Yesterday, it was Gainey's turn to make a sideways move by signing Curtis Sanford of the Vancouver Canucks/Manitoba Moose to take the place that Marc Denis occupied last winter.
Curtis Sanford
In Curtis Sanford, the Canadiens have acquired a third-string goalie with good credentials for the position. Over his long and convoluted career, Sanford has scaled as high as starter (St. Louis, 2005-06), but generally settles in somewhere between great AHL starter and adequate NHL back-up.
Sportsnet says of his strengths:
And, weaknesses:
On looking at his stats, one thing is clear. It seems than when he plays against AHL calibre shooters he can be an excellent goalie, but struggles at the NHL level. Even the difference between Peoria 2003-04 to 2004-05 (when young NHLers roamed the AHL ice) was marked, with a drop of 2% in saves made. The fact that he ranges from slightly just below the standard you'd hope for in the NHL to all-star in the AHL gives proof to the fact that there are more good goalies around than shooters in the two leagues.
No doubt it hasn't escaped many pundits that Gainey has yet again this off-season replaced a French Canadian with an outsider. But if you stick to their mantra "a talent egale, on prendra le Quebecois", Gainey may win a debate on it. While Marc Denis has not put up an NHL record anyone would want to hold up since before the lockout, Sanford had 2005-06 in St. Louis and, to some extent, last year in Vancouver. Even in the AHL, Sanford has outclassed his rival (last year's numbers: 1.73, 0.936 vs. 2.46, 0.920).
It seems that like many of the moves from this off-season, it will have to be regarded as a minor upgrade at the same position.
Trade ripples
The predictable summer rumour merchants jumped right on this signing – just as they do with every Montreal, Toronto, New York or Philadelphia transaction. Hockeybuzz suggests that the move frees up Halak for a trade. Not only that, but a trade that would ring the Canadiens another top centre (Patrick Marleau) and unblock the Heatley logjam all at once.
It's a lot to read into the signing of a Manitoba Moose employee. Plus, it's been said before when Marc Denis was signed.
Personally, I wouldn't say that this signing does free up Jaroslav Halak to be traded – not after Carey's forays into blunderland. I certainly don't think that it gives Gainey the impetus to go out there and actively offer Jaro around.
I do think, however, that it removes the restraint that was previously there. Where there was no depth before (sorry Cedrick), the addition of Curtis Sanford does mean organizations won't fall down if an NHL-level goaltender is traded and someone has to move up. It means that while this isn't the signal that a trade is inevitably around the corner.
If anything, I think it plugs what was the major hole in the hole organization for now and is a sign that Montreal can now listen seriously to offers about nearly all of its roster (barring Markov). That in itself is important because you always want to be in a position to be the team that benefits from the crazed Florida GM coming knocking.
Yesterday, it was Gainey's turn to make a sideways move by signing Curtis Sanford of the Vancouver Canucks/Manitoba Moose to take the place that Marc Denis occupied last winter.
Curtis Sanford
In Curtis Sanford, the Canadiens have acquired a third-string goalie with good credentials for the position. Over his long and convoluted career, Sanford has scaled as high as starter (St. Louis, 2005-06), but generally settles in somewhere between great AHL starter and adequate NHL back-up.
Sportsnet says of his strengths:
Has a tremendous attitude and the perfect demeanor for the backup role at the NHL level. Is capable of making big saves at key moments of a hockey game.
And, weaknesses:
Is somewhat small for the goaltending position, and tends to get beaten upstairs with relative frequency. Isn't durable enough to be an NHL starter.
On looking at his stats, one thing is clear. It seems than when he plays against AHL calibre shooters he can be an excellent goalie, but struggles at the NHL level. Even the difference between Peoria 2003-04 to 2004-05 (when young NHLers roamed the AHL ice) was marked, with a drop of 2% in saves made. The fact that he ranges from slightly just below the standard you'd hope for in the NHL to all-star in the AHL gives proof to the fact that there are more good goalies around than shooters in the two leagues.
No doubt it hasn't escaped many pundits that Gainey has yet again this off-season replaced a French Canadian with an outsider. But if you stick to their mantra "a talent egale, on prendra le Quebecois", Gainey may win a debate on it. While Marc Denis has not put up an NHL record anyone would want to hold up since before the lockout, Sanford had 2005-06 in St. Louis and, to some extent, last year in Vancouver. Even in the AHL, Sanford has outclassed his rival (last year's numbers: 1.73, 0.936 vs. 2.46, 0.920).
It seems that like many of the moves from this off-season, it will have to be regarded as a minor upgrade at the same position.
Trade ripples
The predictable summer rumour merchants jumped right on this signing – just as they do with every Montreal, Toronto, New York or Philadelphia transaction. Hockeybuzz suggests that the move frees up Halak for a trade. Not only that, but a trade that would ring the Canadiens another top centre (Patrick Marleau) and unblock the Heatley logjam all at once.
It's a lot to read into the signing of a Manitoba Moose employee. Plus, it's been said before when Marc Denis was signed.
Personally, I wouldn't say that this signing does free up Jaroslav Halak to be traded – not after Carey's forays into blunderland. I certainly don't think that it gives Gainey the impetus to go out there and actively offer Jaro around.
I do think, however, that it removes the restraint that was previously there. Where there was no depth before (sorry Cedrick), the addition of Curtis Sanford does mean organizations won't fall down if an NHL-level goaltender is traded and someone has to move up. It means that while this isn't the signal that a trade is inevitably around the corner.
If anything, I think it plugs what was the major hole in the hole organization for now and is a sign that Montreal can now listen seriously to offers about nearly all of its roster (barring Markov). That in itself is important because you always want to be in a position to be the team that benefits from the crazed Florida GM coming knocking.
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