Power Rankings I
Power Rankings II
Power Rankings III
Power Rankings IV
Don't want to comment too much. hey at least I don't have to pay too much attention to the vets, because I'd rather forget. Notable exception being Josh Gorges and tonight Carey Price.
First cuts have been made and with injuries and other roster moves all the intrigue is bleeding right out of this thing. Players who made challenges either had their fates decided before the fact (Beaulieu back in junior) or didn't do quite enough (Dumont). Those who started in poll position and the front of the grid are hobbling down the home stretch just about now.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Showing posts with label goalies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label goalies. Show all posts
Monday, September 26, 2011
Sunday, September 25, 2011
ROPR IV:
Time Running Down
Power Rankings I
Power Rankings II
Power Rankings III
A poor result with a poor finish. At least they started brightly and got their first lead of the season. Exhibition results are nothing to lose sleep over, especially with the AHLers playing big minutes here. But let's hope some vets turn up to the dance before October.
The positives in this game were less sensational (no pun intended). There was no showcase from Beaulieu this time around and Gallagher was giving a rest from entertaining us all. Cammalleri's goals were a good sign because he had a lot to do to make them. It would be something for the Habs if he started the season on fire.
The battles for spots drag on, however. Some have been won on past merit and decent outings (Budaj, Desharnais, Emelin), while others look to be going the same way (White, Diaz). The big spots still in play are the 8th defender and the 13th forward. Let's not forget, however that last year the Canadiens didn't carry a roster of 23 for long stretches and may do so again, so the lacklustre challenges to management may just end in that.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Power Rankings II
Power Rankings III
A poor result with a poor finish. At least they started brightly and got their first lead of the season. Exhibition results are nothing to lose sleep over, especially with the AHLers playing big minutes here. But let's hope some vets turn up to the dance before October.
The positives in this game were less sensational (no pun intended). There was no showcase from Beaulieu this time around and Gallagher was giving a rest from entertaining us all. Cammalleri's goals were a good sign because he had a lot to do to make them. It would be something for the Habs if he started the season on fire.
The battles for spots drag on, however. Some have been won on past merit and decent outings (Budaj, Desharnais, Emelin), while others look to be going the same way (White, Diaz). The big spots still in play are the 8th defender and the 13th forward. Let's not forget, however that last year the Canadiens didn't carry a roster of 23 for long stretches and may do so again, so the lacklustre challenges to management may just end in that.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Saturday, September 24, 2011
ROPR III:
Chellengers Idling Their Way to Spots
Power Rankings I
Power Rankings II
Last night the Habs pipped the Sens in a shootout (with an illegal player shooting? maybe?). Anyway, the result wasn't all that important, certainly the shootout outcome of it.
Once again it was those who didn't need to prove anything who did. vets and juniors were the ones who mostly caught the eye. If Gallagher were a tall first rounder who couldn't go to WJC, I think he'd have played his way onto the Habs by now. But those factors are still in play for him.
The other guys, the ones who would appear to have more to gain, more to lose, mostly seem to be in some sort of deep sleep (or anxious paralysis). Blunden got another chance to outshine those who have not shone so brightly and largely didn't. Trotter had a case to make and doesn't even seem halfway to making it yet. Others fared similarly. Here is the movement as I see it.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Power Rankings II
Last night the Habs pipped the Sens in a shootout (with an illegal player shooting? maybe?). Anyway, the result wasn't all that important, certainly the shootout outcome of it.
Once again it was those who didn't need to prove anything who did. vets and juniors were the ones who mostly caught the eye. If Gallagher were a tall first rounder who couldn't go to WJC, I think he'd have played his way onto the Habs by now. But those factors are still in play for him.
The other guys, the ones who would appear to have more to gain, more to lose, mostly seem to be in some sort of deep sleep (or anxious paralysis). Blunden got another chance to outshine those who have not shone so brightly and largely didn't. Trotter had a case to make and doesn't even seem halfway to making it yet. Others fared similarly. Here is the movement as I see it.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Thursday, September 22, 2011
ROPR II:
Movers and Shakers
Power Rankings I
Last night's game against the Sabres was a better display for the Habs. They played the hockey their coach envisions for them and ended with a close loss. In the third, I thought they had the better of the play and on a different night might have tied the contest.
The story of the game, the camp really, has been the junior call-ups. last night Beaulieu showed no hesitation against NHLers and played the game like a kid who just knows he has nothing to shy away from. Gallagher extended his reputation and outshone the majority of forwards for his creativity and general quickness in the offensive zone.
I still believe these two have junior years ahead of them (one reason being their opportunity to play at the WJC), but a few more displays like this could change my mind and maybe those of the people who matter.
Besides the two exciting prospects, those actually vying for the better part of their two-way contracts had very mixed results. It's one thing to be overshadowed by a veteran player, quite another to lose limelight to a junior when these 8 days are your chance at the bit. Generally, the play went well, but one reason the result went the way it did is because many are too hesitanat to seize the day and influence the games in any real way. Their story in the power rankings below.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Last night's game against the Sabres was a better display for the Habs. They played the hockey their coach envisions for them and ended with a close loss. In the third, I thought they had the better of the play and on a different night might have tied the contest.
The story of the game, the camp really, has been the junior call-ups. last night Beaulieu showed no hesitation against NHLers and played the game like a kid who just knows he has nothing to shy away from. Gallagher extended his reputation and outshone the majority of forwards for his creativity and general quickness in the offensive zone.
I still believe these two have junior years ahead of them (one reason being their opportunity to play at the WJC), but a few more displays like this could change my mind and maybe those of the people who matter.
Besides the two exciting prospects, those actually vying for the better part of their two-way contracts had very mixed results. It's one thing to be overshadowed by a veteran player, quite another to lose limelight to a junior when these 8 days are your chance at the bit. Generally, the play went well, but one reason the result went the way it did is because many are too hesitanat to seize the day and influence the games in any real way. Their story in the power rankings below.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Roster Opening Power Rankings
Power Rankings II
Although I'd always advise people to keep their heads tied on for preseason results, that's not to say there's nothing to get excited about.
Just because reading game reports and inferring what might happen in the near future once teams care is not to be recommended doesn't mean the games aren't worth watching. The future of the team (or fragments of it) are there to be seen and this is fun.
Roster spots and career changing opportunities will be handed out, while for others doors will be closed (maybe for good). So for the remainder of training camp, I’m keeping my eye on the open spots and the remaining contenders by presenting to you the roster spot power rankings.
We'll start with the guys we know
Guaranteed NHL positions (in my opinion):
G (2): Carey Price, Peter Budaj
D (6): Hal Gill, Josh Gorges, Andrei Markov, Jaroslav Spacek, PK Subban, Yannick Weber
F (10): Lars Eller, Scott Gomez, Tomas Plekanec, Mike Cammalleri, Mathieu Darche, Travis Moen, Max Pacioretty, Erik Cole, Brian Gionta, Andrei Kostitsyn
That’s 18 roster spots locked of a possible 23 on the NHL squad with a much more wide open field on the AHL front. There won’t be another goalie and with the way the talent is balanced, I’d wager on 8 defencemen and 13 forwards. That means there are two open places at the back and 3 at the front.
Among those vying for their place in the organization, 30 already have pro contracts. But one of the guys is Leblanc who could still go back to junior if that decision was made. The rest of those guys are in the pros, and the math says that there aren’t enough NHL and AHL spots for them.
This is why I think that certain junior eligible players with plenty left to gain from going back to junior will be sent that route.
Guaranteed non-professional play (in my opinion):
G (1): Robin Gusse (already sent back)
D (4): Nathan Beaulieu, Darren Dietz (already), Morgan Ellis, Jarred Tinordi
F (5): Olivier Archambault, Michael Bournival, Etienne Brodeur (already), Brendan Gallagher, Dustin Walsh (already)
The remaing guys are fighting it out for the spots. here's how I see their progress:
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Power Rankings II
Although I'd always advise people to keep their heads tied on for preseason results, that's not to say there's nothing to get excited about.
Just because reading game reports and inferring what might happen in the near future once teams care is not to be recommended doesn't mean the games aren't worth watching. The future of the team (or fragments of it) are there to be seen and this is fun.
Roster spots and career changing opportunities will be handed out, while for others doors will be closed (maybe for good). So for the remainder of training camp, I’m keeping my eye on the open spots and the remaining contenders by presenting to you the roster spot power rankings.
We'll start with the guys we know
Guaranteed NHL positions (in my opinion):
G (2): Carey Price, Peter Budaj
D (6): Hal Gill, Josh Gorges, Andrei Markov, Jaroslav Spacek, PK Subban, Yannick Weber
F (10): Lars Eller, Scott Gomez, Tomas Plekanec, Mike Cammalleri, Mathieu Darche, Travis Moen, Max Pacioretty, Erik Cole, Brian Gionta, Andrei Kostitsyn
That’s 18 roster spots locked of a possible 23 on the NHL squad with a much more wide open field on the AHL front. There won’t be another goalie and with the way the talent is balanced, I’d wager on 8 defencemen and 13 forwards. That means there are two open places at the back and 3 at the front.
Among those vying for their place in the organization, 30 already have pro contracts. But one of the guys is Leblanc who could still go back to junior if that decision was made. The rest of those guys are in the pros, and the math says that there aren’t enough NHL and AHL spots for them.
This is why I think that certain junior eligible players with plenty left to gain from going back to junior will be sent that route.
Guaranteed non-professional play (in my opinion):
G (1): Robin Gusse (already sent back)
D (4): Nathan Beaulieu, Darren Dietz (already), Morgan Ellis, Jarred Tinordi
F (5): Olivier Archambault, Michael Bournival, Etienne Brodeur (already), Brendan Gallagher, Dustin Walsh (already)
The remaing guys are fighting it out for the spots. here's how I see their progress:
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Power Rankings II
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
Ready For A Comedown?
Carey Price in 2011-12
You may all remember a time when Canadiens fans argued about the high ceiling of potential for goalies and the choices to be made in the organization.
That time has passed, but we should not forget the lessons that have been imparted on us simple fans by those who saw the future back then.
Good seasons we were told, great seasons, are not to be taken as signs of progression or as benchmarks. Rather we should be happy they occurred and get ready for the comedown.
I argued many times to the contrary in the past, but I have been humbled by witnessing the true trajectory that goalies who post a save percentage over the NHL average face. I will not be fooled into thinking this can be sustained again.
Carey posted a save percentage that we were told just last year was pretty much unsustainable. Those people were dead on about the Habs goalie who posted the unworldly 0.924? Is Carey immune to this argument? We were told that none were.
Carey played above expectation, saving more shots than would be expected based on NHL averages. This we have been told by statisticians talking on other goalies (and Gomez's opposite situation) can't continue. He's too far above and must come down.
The way I see it, as simple fans we need to just accept that a comedown is coming. We should again listen to all those voices we heard in seasons past. Can't you hear them now?
That time has passed, but we should not forget the lessons that have been imparted on us simple fans by those who saw the future back then.
Good seasons we were told, great seasons, are not to be taken as signs of progression or as benchmarks. Rather we should be happy they occurred and get ready for the comedown.
I argued many times to the contrary in the past, but I have been humbled by witnessing the true trajectory that goalies who post a save percentage over the NHL average face. I will not be fooled into thinking this can be sustained again.
Carey posted a save percentage that we were told just last year was pretty much unsustainable. Those people were dead on about the Habs goalie who posted the unworldly 0.924? Is Carey immune to this argument? We were told that none were.
Carey played above expectation, saving more shots than would be expected based on NHL averages. This we have been told by statisticians talking on other goalies (and Gomez's opposite situation) can't continue. He's too far above and must come down.
The way I see it, as simple fans we need to just accept that a comedown is coming. We should again listen to all those voices we heard in seasons past. Can't you hear them now?
Monday, January 10, 2011
First Half Check-Up
Goaltenders
Game #41 against the Penguins was the turnaround point for the season - with all games from now on taking place on the home stretch. Though I missed the ideal time, I still wanted to share some thoughts and LIW gamelogs with you.
To start, the goalies.
Carey Price
Grade:
Easily the surprise of the season to date was Carey Price's dash out of the gates. From Game #1 to Game #30, he didn't miss a dome nod, and you can see from his record that's because he was playing extremely well.
It's been a bit of a dip for Carey the last 11 games or so, but without anything disastrous.
The good thing about Carey this year is that he seems to win when he plays well and only lose really when he doesn't. There have been 5 reversals (2 wins when he played below average, and 3 losses that could have been wins) but this is way down from past seasons.
From here, it will be interesting to see whether his recent upswing is a recovery to early season form or just a blip while we wait for that to happen. It certainly would be great to have the goalie back who saved more than 85% of quality scoring chances (ChSv%) on most occasions. Especially given the prolonged losses of Markov and Gorges will continue to hamper both the defense and the offense by chain reaction.
Alex Auld
Grade:
The second big surprise of the season would have to be the lack of games for Auld. I think we all thought he was being brought in to do a job that Cedrick Desjardins couldn't manage. Turns out, he's mostly just here to listen to Joel Bouchard.
In the games he's played, Auld has done able work for the most part. He has yet to post a complete shambles of a game where GAA, Sv% and ChSv% are all to the dogs. For that reason I'd give him top marks. And top marks for pulling that off while weathering what must be a tough pill to swallow - the almost certain end of the road in the NHL.
To start, the goalies.
Legend:
GP, W, L, OTL, GAA, Sv%: You know already
GS: Games started
ChSv%: Percentage of scoring chances saved
Carey Price
Grade:
A
Easily the surprise of the season to date was Carey Price's dash out of the gates. From Game #1 to Game #30, he didn't miss a dome nod, and you can see from his record that's because he was playing extremely well.
It's been a bit of a dip for Carey the last 11 games or so, but without anything disastrous.
The good thing about Carey this year is that he seems to win when he plays well and only lose really when he doesn't. There have been 5 reversals (2 wins when he played below average, and 3 losses that could have been wins) but this is way down from past seasons.
From here, it will be interesting to see whether his recent upswing is a recovery to early season form or just a blip while we wait for that to happen. It certainly would be great to have the goalie back who saved more than 85% of quality scoring chances (ChSv%) on most occasions. Especially given the prolonged losses of Markov and Gorges will continue to hamper both the defense and the offense by chain reaction.
Alex Auld
Grade:
A
The second big surprise of the season would have to be the lack of games for Auld. I think we all thought he was being brought in to do a job that Cedrick Desjardins couldn't manage. Turns out, he's mostly just here to listen to Joel Bouchard.
In the games he's played, Auld has done able work for the most part. He has yet to post a complete shambles of a game where GAA, Sv% and ChSv% are all to the dogs. For that reason I'd give him top marks. And top marks for pulling that off while weathering what must be a tough pill to swallow - the almost certain end of the road in the NHL.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Thought For The Week
Goalie Wins
If you've read this site before chances are you have at some time stumbled across a debate about goaltending proficiency. A lot of the time, the issue of goaltender wins as a statistic comes up.
Lately, it seems the prevailing attitude is that wins have nothing to do with goaltending. The argument is well made and the logic sound.
So imagine my surprise when I was (goodness knows why) listening to Robert Mayer's interview from Habs Inside/Out and they asked him about his definiton of a successful season:
I find that interesting. I suspect he's not alone among his bretheren.
While I completely agree that it is oversimplistic to look at wins as a main crux of an argument for goaltender proficiency, I have often also wondered at the oversimplicity of just discarding the stat altogether given its likely influence on how the goalie plays (drives his motivation).
I think I'll remember Mayer's words when I look at seasons past come June.
Lately, it seems the prevailing attitude is that wins have nothing to do with goaltending. The argument is well made and the logic sound.
So imagine my surprise when I was (goodness knows why) listening to Robert Mayer's interview from Habs Inside/Out and they asked him about his definiton of a successful season:
Question: "What would be a good season for you, for the next year?"No mention of other statistics, no mention of save percentgae or even strength save percentage, or games won where he outperformed his expected save percentage based on average shot quality. No, it was wins. Wins are his primary stat for evaluating a season. More wins than losses = good. All wins = perfect.
Mayer (without hesitation): "A good season for me? You know what, a good season for me would be if I had more wins than losses..."
I find that interesting. I suspect he's not alone among his bretheren.
While I completely agree that it is oversimplistic to look at wins as a main crux of an argument for goaltender proficiency, I have often also wondered at the oversimplicity of just discarding the stat altogether given its likely influence on how the goalie plays (drives his motivation).
I think I'll remember Mayer's words when I look at seasons past come June.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Goaltending Controversies in Montreal Will Die Hard
"At least the goalie controvery's done with"
I don't think it would have surprised anyone if GM Pierre Gauthier uttered those words when he traded Jaroslav Halak for Eller and long shot Ian Schultz. That day, he effectively removed the competition for the starter's role in Montreal and placed it again in the lap of Carey Price. But in the days where he failed to sign Dan Ellis and instead settled upon big man Alex Auld, he may have inadvertently opened another controversy up.
Don't for one minute think I think or wish that Alex Auld will challenge Carey Price for the starter's role. For that to happen, we'd already have to be a very miserable group. Rather, it's my belief that Auld has by no means locked up the second-string position, unless we think the Habs too cheap to pay out his one-way contract in the minor leagues.
Auld's need for rebound
Last season, Alex Auld had a very lacklustre season, indeed. Though his Rangers numbers look good if you allow them to factor in (3 games in relief only), it was his 0.894 save percentage with the Dallas Stars to go with an 80s-esque 3.00 GAA that lead me to worry. His ES save percentage was also among the league worst and so was his save percentage on the PK. It just wasn't a season to remember.
That's not to say that Auld isn't a challenger, he is (hence the battle). But his challenge rests on a return to the form he posted in Ottawa and Boston rather than that of Florida, Phoenix and Dallas.
Sanford won't go easily
Sanford can't even look to NHL numbers from last season to make a case. The healthy duo of Halak and Price made sure he was firmly entrenched in Hamilton. However, where he differs from Auld is in his success. Last season, Sanford posted numbers to put himself among AHL leaders for the second year in a row and played so well toward the end of the season that he wrested half the playoff starts away from the All-Star choice, Cedrick Desjardins. The AHL is not the NHL as we well know, but there's history to suggest that AHL success in goaltending counts for at least something.
What's more, Sanford probably has different goals this season as he spots the low hanging fruit in Montreal. with 108 NHL games already, I'd bet good money that he's eyeing more for 2010-11. And there's plenty of credibility to his claim as well. Over that span, Sanford has been a 2.74, 0.901 goalie to Alex Auld's 2.78, 0.904. His only season in a starting role with the then abysmal 2005-06 St. Louis Blues, he easily distanced himself in the race.
Factors in the decision
With fans as unforgiving as the Montrealers who want to fire the coach a mere warmup into the season, this controversy is set to boil early. As to who wins out in the end, it's hard to say. I do feel there are some factors already in play that favour Auld.
Size: The Habs have made no secret of their cunning plan to choose the bigger goalie where possible. Auld is 5" taller and will thus have bigger equipment. I think this tips things in his favour at the outset.
The decided order: Auld has been signed as the back and it shows with the salaries. In another organization (say the Hawks), this might not matter. But a decision made is a decision made in Montreal sometimes, regardless of evidence to the contrary. The order of things will be hard to overcome for Sanford.
Ottawa/Boston: In fairness, Auld turned out very good results over 66 games in Ottawa and Boston, better than anything Sanford has shown at the AHL level. The shadow of these should carry weight at least early on.
Even with all that, I think Sanford stands a chance for reasons of his own:
The system: We all know and love the Jacques Martin Canadiens as a puck concession, shot surrendering machine. It worked with halk, because for some reason he likes that. But when it comes to Auld v. Sanford, I think Sanford may have the edge. Auld's greatest successes have come when he's been more protected from shots (like in Ottawa and his early Vancouver days) and he's had some tendency to look less impressive under heavier fire (Vancouver 2005-06 and Florida). Sanford's strength is Auld's potential weakness, and he may just push him on that because we all know that shots aren't going to stop coming in...
Salary cap: Pierre Gauthier has managed to spend nearly every last penny on this team, a team that may yet need to be tweaked. $1 million vs. $550,000 may not seem much, but come March that could buy a million dollars worth of reinforcement. If Auld plays like an AHLer anyway, I wonder how long the capologists will allow it.
It's been many a year since the Canadiens entered training camp without something to discuss from the back end. You didn't really expect that to end just because Gauthier dealt Halak did you?
I don't think it would have surprised anyone if GM Pierre Gauthier uttered those words when he traded Jaroslav Halak for Eller and long shot Ian Schultz. That day, he effectively removed the competition for the starter's role in Montreal and placed it again in the lap of Carey Price. But in the days where he failed to sign Dan Ellis and instead settled upon big man Alex Auld, he may have inadvertently opened another controversy up.
Don't for one minute think I think or wish that Alex Auld will challenge Carey Price for the starter's role. For that to happen, we'd already have to be a very miserable group. Rather, it's my belief that Auld has by no means locked up the second-string position, unless we think the Habs too cheap to pay out his one-way contract in the minor leagues.
Auld's need for rebound
Last season, Alex Auld had a very lacklustre season, indeed. Though his Rangers numbers look good if you allow them to factor in (3 games in relief only), it was his 0.894 save percentage with the Dallas Stars to go with an 80s-esque 3.00 GAA that lead me to worry. His ES save percentage was also among the league worst and so was his save percentage on the PK. It just wasn't a season to remember.
That's not to say that Auld isn't a challenger, he is (hence the battle). But his challenge rests on a return to the form he posted in Ottawa and Boston rather than that of Florida, Phoenix and Dallas.
Sanford won't go easily
Sanford can't even look to NHL numbers from last season to make a case. The healthy duo of Halak and Price made sure he was firmly entrenched in Hamilton. However, where he differs from Auld is in his success. Last season, Sanford posted numbers to put himself among AHL leaders for the second year in a row and played so well toward the end of the season that he wrested half the playoff starts away from the All-Star choice, Cedrick Desjardins. The AHL is not the NHL as we well know, but there's history to suggest that AHL success in goaltending counts for at least something.
What's more, Sanford probably has different goals this season as he spots the low hanging fruit in Montreal. with 108 NHL games already, I'd bet good money that he's eyeing more for 2010-11. And there's plenty of credibility to his claim as well. Over that span, Sanford has been a 2.74, 0.901 goalie to Alex Auld's 2.78, 0.904. His only season in a starting role with the then abysmal 2005-06 St. Louis Blues, he easily distanced himself in the race.
Factors in the decision
With fans as unforgiving as the Montrealers who want to fire the coach a mere warmup into the season, this controversy is set to boil early. As to who wins out in the end, it's hard to say. I do feel there are some factors already in play that favour Auld.
Size: The Habs have made no secret of their cunning plan to choose the bigger goalie where possible. Auld is 5" taller and will thus have bigger equipment. I think this tips things in his favour at the outset.
The decided order: Auld has been signed as the back and it shows with the salaries. In another organization (say the Hawks), this might not matter. But a decision made is a decision made in Montreal sometimes, regardless of evidence to the contrary. The order of things will be hard to overcome for Sanford.
Ottawa/Boston: In fairness, Auld turned out very good results over 66 games in Ottawa and Boston, better than anything Sanford has shown at the AHL level. The shadow of these should carry weight at least early on.
Even with all that, I think Sanford stands a chance for reasons of his own:
The system: We all know and love the Jacques Martin Canadiens as a puck concession, shot surrendering machine. It worked with halk, because for some reason he likes that. But when it comes to Auld v. Sanford, I think Sanford may have the edge. Auld's greatest successes have come when he's been more protected from shots (like in Ottawa and his early Vancouver days) and he's had some tendency to look less impressive under heavier fire (Vancouver 2005-06 and Florida). Sanford's strength is Auld's potential weakness, and he may just push him on that because we all know that shots aren't going to stop coming in...
Salary cap: Pierre Gauthier has managed to spend nearly every last penny on this team, a team that may yet need to be tweaked. $1 million vs. $550,000 may not seem much, but come March that could buy a million dollars worth of reinforcement. If Auld plays like an AHLer anyway, I wonder how long the capologists will allow it.
It's been many a year since the Canadiens entered training camp without something to discuss from the back end. You didn't really expect that to end just because Gauthier dealt Halak did you?
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