With the foregone conclusions of camp playing out in real time, we have now had a chance to read about line combinations and see them in action. Therrien hasn't changed much, but a couple of additions and action on late season feedback has led to at least three lines that seem set in stone. There are things to like and dislike about each:
Showing posts with label forwards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forwards. Show all posts
Friday, September 27, 2013
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Quarter Season Grades
Habs Forwards
21 games into a season and it's time to have a little look back at what has happened. I read a pretty blunt and unforgiving take on the Toronto Maple leafs the other day that will serve as my template.
There's no point in handing out a C when you mean F or a B+ when you mean a C. We'll grade to the curve so that the forwards as a group get the grade they deserve.
As a group
We all know the team is in the thick of things. 6 points out of first, 2 points out of 7th and 2 points ahead of second to last in the conference. A bottom midddling team so far. And the offense has been OK, but rather middling as well. An acceptable 53 goals over 21 games, however, has been inflated by some big outbursts and masks the losses due to lack of punch.
As a group, the forwards have contributed these outbursts and most of the 53 goals, and have been pretty sound defensively at times too. But it's not all positive. The group has to bear the brunt of the responsibility for lacklustre comeback attempts, a largely ineffective PP and for not being more than middling in goalscoring overall.
As a group, I'd give them a C+, a passable performance thus far, but knowing that one needs to be better than rivals, not enough.
Tomas Plekanec: A-
It's possible he's been cast in a role that it's impossible for him to fill: the all-around leader of the Montreal forwards. It is perhaps not in him to carry a team on his back when a huge turnaround is needed. Still, Tomas provides that reliable Plekanec hockey that any team would be pleased to call upon. Nearly a point per game and lots of impressive performances make him the best of the bunch.
Max Pacioretty: A-
Has stepped into the role of Habs primary goalscorer with panache. His shots are well chosen and well weighted, and he's been rewarded with 9 goals so far.
Brian Gionta: B-
A tale of two 10 game stretches. he was at times criminally absent in the first ten games and the Habs record showed for it. Since that time, he has retaken his mantle as leader and is climbing up in these marks.
David Desharnais: B-
His critics are both right and wrong. he has benefited from a few very hot starts at times from wingers and he has obtained assists on goals where he hasn't been the main protagonist. All the same, he does keep finding men open for good shooting opportunities with simple and unheralded passes. He's been a pleasant surprise given we didn't know we even had this player in the system, but is probably underperforming as a top line centre. When goals are needed, he has sometimes been a conspicuous absentee from danger areas.
Erik Cole: B+
What Erik has provided isn't easy to record. After an unforgivable start (unfit at camp???), he has been a point-per-game sparkplug since Game 8 and his first Habs goal. His main contribution may be keeping the stumbling PP above water, as he creates more than 2 goals per 60 minutes when let loose with the man advantage.
Michael Cammalleri: C-
Too many times we have been left saying how dangerous he looked without real benefit from the danger. teams that win have dangerous players who find a way to score. This is the player that Gauthier presumed he had signed in 2009, not one who would be on pace for 16 goals 2 years later.
Andrei Kostitsyn: B-
He's been a handful for many of the defenses he's faced, but like the Canadiens forwards as a whole has been frustratingly slow to step up to the plate when a hit was required. If he can return soon, the situation may be ripe to move him with Pleks and unite Gionta with Gomez, which could benefit both AK and the team overall.
Travis Moen: B
Travis had a great start, but for the last 14 games (that's 1 7th of a season) he's been busy showing us it was mostly just a fast start. He's been outstanding defensively at times, however, especially at ES (possibly due to a little bit of luck looking at his chances +/-), and has been a workhorse on the very effective PK.
Lars Eller: C+
When someone present you with a silver platter, don't put more than half of your shots off net. It's very encouraging to see Eller's confidence and all that, and he has had some truly impressive carries. He's also had his fair share of great shifts. But at the end of the day he embodies what an average Habs forward has been this season. A lot of fancy possession stats, but too often happy to go round the outside and eschew the best scoring chances.
Scott Gomez: F
Gomez has played 12 games now. He has had one, maybe two games where people want to stick their necks out to defend him. Regardless of his money, he is a veteran and a player who can lead the younger ones. He has too often set the wrong example.
Mathieu Darche: F
It's true that Mathieu Darche only has 4 fewer goals than Tomas Plekanec and 3 fewer than Cammalleri, but can you remember a goalscoring opportunity from this guy? I do remember a breakaway he parked in the pads with a half shot. Darche is on the team to be a veteran player who can pick up some slack when others are having off nights. So far, he has yet to do that.
Petteri Nokelainen: C-
He's been better than the alternative (Engqvist) but not much more.
Michael Blunden: D-
It's hard to give a player like Blunden an F, so I'll give him the grade just higher. He did nothing more than play passable hockey and that's slightly disappointing for a team that seems to be in perpetual need of someone with Blunden's physical attributes. Perhaps he was only the victim of an unforgiving coach, after all, he only took one really dumb penalty to put him in permanent doghouse.
Aaron Palushaj: D
He hasn't seen the best ice time, but after 11 games and 80 minutes of ice time, one might expect more than 0 points and one scoring chance from a forward. Call it fear of reprisal if you want, but Aaron let his true mandate slip away as he tried not to get scored on.
Andreas Engqvist: D-
From training camp through his early NHL debut, he did little if anything to make a fan or coach sit up and take note. His task on the team was to provide an NHL body until injuries returned. His task for his own career was to make an impression. he didn't fulfill either very convincingly.
There's no point in handing out a C when you mean F or a B+ when you mean a C. We'll grade to the curve so that the forwards as a group get the grade they deserve.
As a group
We all know the team is in the thick of things. 6 points out of first, 2 points out of 7th and 2 points ahead of second to last in the conference. A bottom midddling team so far. And the offense has been OK, but rather middling as well. An acceptable 53 goals over 21 games, however, has been inflated by some big outbursts and masks the losses due to lack of punch.
As a group, the forwards have contributed these outbursts and most of the 53 goals, and have been pretty sound defensively at times too. But it's not all positive. The group has to bear the brunt of the responsibility for lacklustre comeback attempts, a largely ineffective PP and for not being more than middling in goalscoring overall.
As a group, I'd give them a C+, a passable performance thus far, but knowing that one needs to be better than rivals, not enough.
Tomas Plekanec: A-
It's possible he's been cast in a role that it's impossible for him to fill: the all-around leader of the Montreal forwards. It is perhaps not in him to carry a team on his back when a huge turnaround is needed. Still, Tomas provides that reliable Plekanec hockey that any team would be pleased to call upon. Nearly a point per game and lots of impressive performances make him the best of the bunch.
Max Pacioretty: A-
Has stepped into the role of Habs primary goalscorer with panache. His shots are well chosen and well weighted, and he's been rewarded with 9 goals so far.
Brian Gionta: B-
A tale of two 10 game stretches. he was at times criminally absent in the first ten games and the Habs record showed for it. Since that time, he has retaken his mantle as leader and is climbing up in these marks.
David Desharnais: B-
His critics are both right and wrong. he has benefited from a few very hot starts at times from wingers and he has obtained assists on goals where he hasn't been the main protagonist. All the same, he does keep finding men open for good shooting opportunities with simple and unheralded passes. He's been a pleasant surprise given we didn't know we even had this player in the system, but is probably underperforming as a top line centre. When goals are needed, he has sometimes been a conspicuous absentee from danger areas.
Erik Cole: B+
What Erik has provided isn't easy to record. After an unforgivable start (unfit at camp???), he has been a point-per-game sparkplug since Game 8 and his first Habs goal. His main contribution may be keeping the stumbling PP above water, as he creates more than 2 goals per 60 minutes when let loose with the man advantage.
Michael Cammalleri: C-
Too many times we have been left saying how dangerous he looked without real benefit from the danger. teams that win have dangerous players who find a way to score. This is the player that Gauthier presumed he had signed in 2009, not one who would be on pace for 16 goals 2 years later.
Andrei Kostitsyn: B-
He's been a handful for many of the defenses he's faced, but like the Canadiens forwards as a whole has been frustratingly slow to step up to the plate when a hit was required. If he can return soon, the situation may be ripe to move him with Pleks and unite Gionta with Gomez, which could benefit both AK and the team overall.
Travis Moen: B
Travis had a great start, but for the last 14 games (that's 1 7th of a season) he's been busy showing us it was mostly just a fast start. He's been outstanding defensively at times, however, especially at ES (possibly due to a little bit of luck looking at his chances +/-), and has been a workhorse on the very effective PK.
Lars Eller: C+
When someone present you with a silver platter, don't put more than half of your shots off net. It's very encouraging to see Eller's confidence and all that, and he has had some truly impressive carries. He's also had his fair share of great shifts. But at the end of the day he embodies what an average Habs forward has been this season. A lot of fancy possession stats, but too often happy to go round the outside and eschew the best scoring chances.
Scott Gomez: F
Gomez has played 12 games now. He has had one, maybe two games where people want to stick their necks out to defend him. Regardless of his money, he is a veteran and a player who can lead the younger ones. He has too often set the wrong example.
Mathieu Darche: F
It's true that Mathieu Darche only has 4 fewer goals than Tomas Plekanec and 3 fewer than Cammalleri, but can you remember a goalscoring opportunity from this guy? I do remember a breakaway he parked in the pads with a half shot. Darche is on the team to be a veteran player who can pick up some slack when others are having off nights. So far, he has yet to do that.
Petteri Nokelainen: C-
He's been better than the alternative (Engqvist) but not much more.
Michael Blunden: D-
It's hard to give a player like Blunden an F, so I'll give him the grade just higher. He did nothing more than play passable hockey and that's slightly disappointing for a team that seems to be in perpetual need of someone with Blunden's physical attributes. Perhaps he was only the victim of an unforgiving coach, after all, he only took one really dumb penalty to put him in permanent doghouse.
Aaron Palushaj: D
He hasn't seen the best ice time, but after 11 games and 80 minutes of ice time, one might expect more than 0 points and one scoring chance from a forward. Call it fear of reprisal if you want, but Aaron let his true mandate slip away as he tried not to get scored on.
Andreas Engqvist: D-
From training camp through his early NHL debut, he did little if anything to make a fan or coach sit up and take note. His task on the team was to provide an NHL body until injuries returned. His task for his own career was to make an impression. he didn't fulfill either very convincingly.
Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Your New Betts Friend
You know this is the absolute peak of Habs fan excitement and anticipation, hours away from a game that makes a putrid Stanley Cup playoffs (wrong champs) irrelevant again. Fans have been very excited about the waiver wire moves.
What happened today was that Pierre Gauthier took an honest look at his prospects and admitted none was quite ready, turned around and saw Blair Betts sitting on waivers only to claim him.
The waiver wire pick up was not an indictment of Engqvist or Palushaj, they did that to themselves with their play. It's just a simple little addition that means we fans can expect a more honed game from a 4th liner.
The news of the addition did little to stir my own emotions. If that feeling wasn't indifference then I'm not sure what it was. Betts is big sure, but he's pretty one dimensional. I mean we're getting some pretty straight forward hockey here.
The good news is that 4th liners shouldn't stir the emotions. That line will hopefully be made up with guys everyone is comfortable with leaving off the ice for 51 minutes a night. What's more, Betts himself does have some intrigue about him. He played in 23 Stanley Cup playoff games about 16 months ago (that has to mean something) and he usually scores more goals than Gomez did last season.
No he's not Dominic Moore, but that ship has now sailed. He's no Engqvist either you know.
What happened today was that Pierre Gauthier took an honest look at his prospects and admitted none was quite ready, turned around and saw Blair Betts sitting on waivers only to claim him.
The waiver wire pick up was not an indictment of Engqvist or Palushaj, they did that to themselves with their play. It's just a simple little addition that means we fans can expect a more honed game from a 4th liner.
The news of the addition did little to stir my own emotions. If that feeling wasn't indifference then I'm not sure what it was. Betts is big sure, but he's pretty one dimensional. I mean we're getting some pretty straight forward hockey here.
The good news is that 4th liners shouldn't stir the emotions. That line will hopefully be made up with guys everyone is comfortable with leaving off the ice for 51 minutes a night. What's more, Betts himself does have some intrigue about him. He played in 23 Stanley Cup playoff games about 16 months ago (that has to mean something) and he usually scores more goals than Gomez did last season.
No he's not Dominic Moore, but that ship has now sailed. He's no Engqvist either you know.
Notes from Camp (Part 1 of 2) - The Forwards
With the last of the preseason games now in the books, training camp now moves into its last phase before the regular season starts - the team building phase. Here are my thoughts on training camp so far in a two-part series starting with the forwards that for one reason or another made an impression:
Andrei Kostitsyn
Although neither a lover or hater of Andrei Kostitsyn, he seems to me to have an added maturity and more of a veteran presence. Maybe this was just a short-felt impression that I had which was accentuated by the fact that he was in fact surrounded by lots of kids in camp but I have a gut feeling that this will be a good year for #46.
This is a big year for Kostitsyn as he becomes an unrestricted free agent at the conclusion of this season. Although many believe that he’ll sulk on the third line if played there (as appears likely), I believe that you’ll see a completely different Andrei. Any of his negativity this year will not only translate badly for his reputation amongst Habs management but also amongst all 30 GMs in the league. Andrei has a very smart man as his agent in Don Meehan who I’m sure has advised his client that any misgivings that he may have with the Habs can be erased from his memory very easily by bearing his head down and playing hard which in turn will earn him a contract from any of the other teams in the league. In fact, if he plays so well, he then forces Pierre Gauthier to offer him a very rich contract in order to avoid going to free agency. In my opinion, Kostitsyn simply has too much raw skill and talent for it not to translate into a great year should he put forth the effort that I believe he will - just don’t expect him back next year.
Brendan Gallagher
Like everyone else, I was absolutely enthralled by young Brendan Gallagher this preseason. I’m also happy to say that although I was surprised by how well he competed I was not shocked. A close friend of mine had pointed him out to me early last year as Gallagher was ripping it up for the Giants. That being said, I’m very positive about the kid’s future and really believe that he will be a fun prospect to watch over the Christmas holidays when he plays for Canada at the World Juniors.
I will tell you what did shock me - the number of people (especially from the English media) calling for young Gallagher to stay on with the team. In all honesty, please explain to me what was so different about his camp from that of one young Guillaume Latendresse (other than the fact that Latendresse performed even better in his camp). This case is no different, the French media were wrong then and the English media is wrong now. Both kids were not ready for the leap to the big leagues at such a tender age just as Max Pacioretty wasn’t ready when he first made the team. These kids are good (no doubt) but they do need to get their seasoning in the AHL it bodes for a better NHL player down the line.
Louis Leblanc
Another interesting observation that occurred during preseason was something that I noticed on twitter. All of a sudden twitter was abuzz with how Louis Leblanc’s development had suffered a major setback due to his injury and how his career potential was at best a solid 3rd liner. Look, I’m not going to sit here and say that he’ll be a 1st or 2nd liner but at the same time I felt like it was undue criticism. I don’t like projections being made of a player people have yet to see perform at a NHL let alone AHL level. Everyone has the right to see what they want and they may eventually be right but the point is you at least allow someone to show you what they have. Being injured is not great for development but it also doesn’t mean that development is stalled forever.
Erik Cole
I’ve been very pleased with Erik Cole so far and as I discussed earlier during this off-season, I believe that he will be a very important key to helping this team take the next step forward. It’s not just the size but the tenacity for driving the net coupled with the speed that he has. I was a tad worried that with his age he may be starting to lose a step but on more than once occasion, Erik put the pedal to the metal and impressed me as he wheeled around and past a defenseman almost effortlessly.
Scott Gomez
It’s way too early to make any judgement on Gomez but I will say this, the guy looks like he cares and seems to be putting in the effort to show it. Really, at the end of the day, that’s all we can ask at this stage of his contract. Hopefully, he continues to show night in and night out that he cares and more importantly puts forth the actual on-ice effort to demonstrate that care in the eyes of all the Habs supporters. I’m cautiously optimistic on Scott Gomez.
Andreas Engqvist
I’m not sure if this is just a case of bad scouting but I simply don’t see where and how a projection was made on this kid being able to effectively center the 4th line. I was unimpressed with his performance during his brief call-up last year and although he apparently excelled in a defensive role in the AHL under the tutelage of Randy Cunneyworth, I find it very hard to understand that these coaches don’t realize the massive disparity between the NHL and AHL. In fact, I’m quite sure that they are more than well aware of it considering their experience. So what’s the deal? And to top it off, Andreas put forth a disappointing effort during training camp. I hope we all get to see what it is that management sees in this kid because at this point, not only do I not see it but I’m actually worried that this might very well be the team’s Achilles’ heel.
And with that, I conclude the first part of two blog posts outlining my feelings on training camp. Next post will tackle the defense.
Andrei Kostitsyn
Although neither a lover or hater of Andrei Kostitsyn, he seems to me to have an added maturity and more of a veteran presence. Maybe this was just a short-felt impression that I had which was accentuated by the fact that he was in fact surrounded by lots of kids in camp but I have a gut feeling that this will be a good year for #46.
This is a big year for Kostitsyn as he becomes an unrestricted free agent at the conclusion of this season. Although many believe that he’ll sulk on the third line if played there (as appears likely), I believe that you’ll see a completely different Andrei. Any of his negativity this year will not only translate badly for his reputation amongst Habs management but also amongst all 30 GMs in the league. Andrei has a very smart man as his agent in Don Meehan who I’m sure has advised his client that any misgivings that he may have with the Habs can be erased from his memory very easily by bearing his head down and playing hard which in turn will earn him a contract from any of the other teams in the league. In fact, if he plays so well, he then forces Pierre Gauthier to offer him a very rich contract in order to avoid going to free agency. In my opinion, Kostitsyn simply has too much raw skill and talent for it not to translate into a great year should he put forth the effort that I believe he will - just don’t expect him back next year.
Brendan Gallagher
Like everyone else, I was absolutely enthralled by young Brendan Gallagher this preseason. I’m also happy to say that although I was surprised by how well he competed I was not shocked. A close friend of mine had pointed him out to me early last year as Gallagher was ripping it up for the Giants. That being said, I’m very positive about the kid’s future and really believe that he will be a fun prospect to watch over the Christmas holidays when he plays for Canada at the World Juniors.
I will tell you what did shock me - the number of people (especially from the English media) calling for young Gallagher to stay on with the team. In all honesty, please explain to me what was so different about his camp from that of one young Guillaume Latendresse (other than the fact that Latendresse performed even better in his camp). This case is no different, the French media were wrong then and the English media is wrong now. Both kids were not ready for the leap to the big leagues at such a tender age just as Max Pacioretty wasn’t ready when he first made the team. These kids are good (no doubt) but they do need to get their seasoning in the AHL it bodes for a better NHL player down the line.
Louis Leblanc
Another interesting observation that occurred during preseason was something that I noticed on twitter. All of a sudden twitter was abuzz with how Louis Leblanc’s development had suffered a major setback due to his injury and how his career potential was at best a solid 3rd liner. Look, I’m not going to sit here and say that he’ll be a 1st or 2nd liner but at the same time I felt like it was undue criticism. I don’t like projections being made of a player people have yet to see perform at a NHL let alone AHL level. Everyone has the right to see what they want and they may eventually be right but the point is you at least allow someone to show you what they have. Being injured is not great for development but it also doesn’t mean that development is stalled forever.
Erik Cole
I’ve been very pleased with Erik Cole so far and as I discussed earlier during this off-season, I believe that he will be a very important key to helping this team take the next step forward. It’s not just the size but the tenacity for driving the net coupled with the speed that he has. I was a tad worried that with his age he may be starting to lose a step but on more than once occasion, Erik put the pedal to the metal and impressed me as he wheeled around and past a defenseman almost effortlessly.
Scott Gomez
It’s way too early to make any judgement on Gomez but I will say this, the guy looks like he cares and seems to be putting in the effort to show it. Really, at the end of the day, that’s all we can ask at this stage of his contract. Hopefully, he continues to show night in and night out that he cares and more importantly puts forth the actual on-ice effort to demonstrate that care in the eyes of all the Habs supporters. I’m cautiously optimistic on Scott Gomez.
Andreas Engqvist
I’m not sure if this is just a case of bad scouting but I simply don’t see where and how a projection was made on this kid being able to effectively center the 4th line. I was unimpressed with his performance during his brief call-up last year and although he apparently excelled in a defensive role in the AHL under the tutelage of Randy Cunneyworth, I find it very hard to understand that these coaches don’t realize the massive disparity between the NHL and AHL. In fact, I’m quite sure that they are more than well aware of it considering their experience. So what’s the deal? And to top it off, Andreas put forth a disappointing effort during training camp. I hope we all get to see what it is that management sees in this kid because at this point, not only do I not see it but I’m actually worried that this might very well be the team’s Achilles’ heel.
And with that, I conclude the first part of two blog posts outlining my feelings on training camp. Next post will tackle the defense.
Monday, September 26, 2011
ROPR V:
Someone? Anyone?
Power Rankings I
Power Rankings II
Power Rankings III
Power Rankings IV
Don't want to comment too much. hey at least I don't have to pay too much attention to the vets, because I'd rather forget. Notable exception being Josh Gorges and tonight Carey Price.
First cuts have been made and with injuries and other roster moves all the intrigue is bleeding right out of this thing. Players who made challenges either had their fates decided before the fact (Beaulieu back in junior) or didn't do quite enough (Dumont). Those who started in poll position and the front of the grid are hobbling down the home stretch just about now.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Power Rankings II
Power Rankings III
Power Rankings IV
Don't want to comment too much. hey at least I don't have to pay too much attention to the vets, because I'd rather forget. Notable exception being Josh Gorges and tonight Carey Price.
First cuts have been made and with injuries and other roster moves all the intrigue is bleeding right out of this thing. Players who made challenges either had their fates decided before the fact (Beaulieu back in junior) or didn't do quite enough (Dumont). Those who started in poll position and the front of the grid are hobbling down the home stretch just about now.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Sunday, September 25, 2011
ROPR IV:
Time Running Down
Power Rankings I
Power Rankings II
Power Rankings III
A poor result with a poor finish. At least they started brightly and got their first lead of the season. Exhibition results are nothing to lose sleep over, especially with the AHLers playing big minutes here. But let's hope some vets turn up to the dance before October.
The positives in this game were less sensational (no pun intended). There was no showcase from Beaulieu this time around and Gallagher was giving a rest from entertaining us all. Cammalleri's goals were a good sign because he had a lot to do to make them. It would be something for the Habs if he started the season on fire.
The battles for spots drag on, however. Some have been won on past merit and decent outings (Budaj, Desharnais, Emelin), while others look to be going the same way (White, Diaz). The big spots still in play are the 8th defender and the 13th forward. Let's not forget, however that last year the Canadiens didn't carry a roster of 23 for long stretches and may do so again, so the lacklustre challenges to management may just end in that.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Power Rankings II
Power Rankings III
A poor result with a poor finish. At least they started brightly and got their first lead of the season. Exhibition results are nothing to lose sleep over, especially with the AHLers playing big minutes here. But let's hope some vets turn up to the dance before October.
The positives in this game were less sensational (no pun intended). There was no showcase from Beaulieu this time around and Gallagher was giving a rest from entertaining us all. Cammalleri's goals were a good sign because he had a lot to do to make them. It would be something for the Habs if he started the season on fire.
The battles for spots drag on, however. Some have been won on past merit and decent outings (Budaj, Desharnais, Emelin), while others look to be going the same way (White, Diaz). The big spots still in play are the 8th defender and the 13th forward. Let's not forget, however that last year the Canadiens didn't carry a roster of 23 for long stretches and may do so again, so the lacklustre challenges to management may just end in that.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Saturday, September 24, 2011
ROPR III:
Chellengers Idling Their Way to Spots
Power Rankings I
Power Rankings II
Last night the Habs pipped the Sens in a shootout (with an illegal player shooting? maybe?). Anyway, the result wasn't all that important, certainly the shootout outcome of it.
Once again it was those who didn't need to prove anything who did. vets and juniors were the ones who mostly caught the eye. If Gallagher were a tall first rounder who couldn't go to WJC, I think he'd have played his way onto the Habs by now. But those factors are still in play for him.
The other guys, the ones who would appear to have more to gain, more to lose, mostly seem to be in some sort of deep sleep (or anxious paralysis). Blunden got another chance to outshine those who have not shone so brightly and largely didn't. Trotter had a case to make and doesn't even seem halfway to making it yet. Others fared similarly. Here is the movement as I see it.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Power Rankings II
Last night the Habs pipped the Sens in a shootout (with an illegal player shooting? maybe?). Anyway, the result wasn't all that important, certainly the shootout outcome of it.
Once again it was those who didn't need to prove anything who did. vets and juniors were the ones who mostly caught the eye. If Gallagher were a tall first rounder who couldn't go to WJC, I think he'd have played his way onto the Habs by now. But those factors are still in play for him.
The other guys, the ones who would appear to have more to gain, more to lose, mostly seem to be in some sort of deep sleep (or anxious paralysis). Blunden got another chance to outshine those who have not shone so brightly and largely didn't. Trotter had a case to make and doesn't even seem halfway to making it yet. Others fared similarly. Here is the movement as I see it.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Thursday, September 22, 2011
ROPR II:
Movers and Shakers
Power Rankings I
Last night's game against the Sabres was a better display for the Habs. They played the hockey their coach envisions for them and ended with a close loss. In the third, I thought they had the better of the play and on a different night might have tied the contest.
The story of the game, the camp really, has been the junior call-ups. last night Beaulieu showed no hesitation against NHLers and played the game like a kid who just knows he has nothing to shy away from. Gallagher extended his reputation and outshone the majority of forwards for his creativity and general quickness in the offensive zone.
I still believe these two have junior years ahead of them (one reason being their opportunity to play at the WJC), but a few more displays like this could change my mind and maybe those of the people who matter.
Besides the two exciting prospects, those actually vying for the better part of their two-way contracts had very mixed results. It's one thing to be overshadowed by a veteran player, quite another to lose limelight to a junior when these 8 days are your chance at the bit. Generally, the play went well, but one reason the result went the way it did is because many are too hesitanat to seize the day and influence the games in any real way. Their story in the power rankings below.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Last night's game against the Sabres was a better display for the Habs. They played the hockey their coach envisions for them and ended with a close loss. In the third, I thought they had the better of the play and on a different night might have tied the contest.
The story of the game, the camp really, has been the junior call-ups. last night Beaulieu showed no hesitation against NHLers and played the game like a kid who just knows he has nothing to shy away from. Gallagher extended his reputation and outshone the majority of forwards for his creativity and general quickness in the offensive zone.
I still believe these two have junior years ahead of them (one reason being their opportunity to play at the WJC), but a few more displays like this could change my mind and maybe those of the people who matter.
Besides the two exciting prospects, those actually vying for the better part of their two-way contracts had very mixed results. It's one thing to be overshadowed by a veteran player, quite another to lose limelight to a junior when these 8 days are your chance at the bit. Generally, the play went well, but one reason the result went the way it did is because many are too hesitanat to seize the day and influence the games in any real way. Their story in the power rankings below.
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Roster Opening Power Rankings
Power Rankings II
Although I'd always advise people to keep their heads tied on for preseason results, that's not to say there's nothing to get excited about.
Just because reading game reports and inferring what might happen in the near future once teams care is not to be recommended doesn't mean the games aren't worth watching. The future of the team (or fragments of it) are there to be seen and this is fun.
Roster spots and career changing opportunities will be handed out, while for others doors will be closed (maybe for good). So for the remainder of training camp, I’m keeping my eye on the open spots and the remaining contenders by presenting to you the roster spot power rankings.
We'll start with the guys we know
Guaranteed NHL positions (in my opinion):
G (2): Carey Price, Peter Budaj
D (6): Hal Gill, Josh Gorges, Andrei Markov, Jaroslav Spacek, PK Subban, Yannick Weber
F (10): Lars Eller, Scott Gomez, Tomas Plekanec, Mike Cammalleri, Mathieu Darche, Travis Moen, Max Pacioretty, Erik Cole, Brian Gionta, Andrei Kostitsyn
That’s 18 roster spots locked of a possible 23 on the NHL squad with a much more wide open field on the AHL front. There won’t be another goalie and with the way the talent is balanced, I’d wager on 8 defencemen and 13 forwards. That means there are two open places at the back and 3 at the front.
Among those vying for their place in the organization, 30 already have pro contracts. But one of the guys is Leblanc who could still go back to junior if that decision was made. The rest of those guys are in the pros, and the math says that there aren’t enough NHL and AHL spots for them.
This is why I think that certain junior eligible players with plenty left to gain from going back to junior will be sent that route.
Guaranteed non-professional play (in my opinion):
G (1): Robin Gusse (already sent back)
D (4): Nathan Beaulieu, Darren Dietz (already), Morgan Ellis, Jarred Tinordi
F (5): Olivier Archambault, Michael Bournival, Etienne Brodeur (already), Brendan Gallagher, Dustin Walsh (already)
The remaing guys are fighting it out for the spots. here's how I see their progress:
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Power Rankings II
Although I'd always advise people to keep their heads tied on for preseason results, that's not to say there's nothing to get excited about.
Just because reading game reports and inferring what might happen in the near future once teams care is not to be recommended doesn't mean the games aren't worth watching. The future of the team (or fragments of it) are there to be seen and this is fun.
Roster spots and career changing opportunities will be handed out, while for others doors will be closed (maybe for good). So for the remainder of training camp, I’m keeping my eye on the open spots and the remaining contenders by presenting to you the roster spot power rankings.
We'll start with the guys we know
Guaranteed NHL positions (in my opinion):
G (2): Carey Price, Peter Budaj
D (6): Hal Gill, Josh Gorges, Andrei Markov, Jaroslav Spacek, PK Subban, Yannick Weber
F (10): Lars Eller, Scott Gomez, Tomas Plekanec, Mike Cammalleri, Mathieu Darche, Travis Moen, Max Pacioretty, Erik Cole, Brian Gionta, Andrei Kostitsyn
That’s 18 roster spots locked of a possible 23 on the NHL squad with a much more wide open field on the AHL front. There won’t be another goalie and with the way the talent is balanced, I’d wager on 8 defencemen and 13 forwards. That means there are two open places at the back and 3 at the front.
Among those vying for their place in the organization, 30 already have pro contracts. But one of the guys is Leblanc who could still go back to junior if that decision was made. The rest of those guys are in the pros, and the math says that there aren’t enough NHL and AHL spots for them.
This is why I think that certain junior eligible players with plenty left to gain from going back to junior will be sent that route.
Guaranteed non-professional play (in my opinion):
G (1): Robin Gusse (already sent back)
D (4): Nathan Beaulieu, Darren Dietz (already), Morgan Ellis, Jarred Tinordi
F (5): Olivier Archambault, Michael Bournival, Etienne Brodeur (already), Brendan Gallagher, Dustin Walsh (already)
The remaing guys are fighting it out for the spots. here's how I see their progress:
Goalies
Defencemen
Forwards
Power Rankings II
Monday, February 14, 2011
Canadiens Deadline Assets
Everyone wants a new star player. Too obvious.
But to get in this league, you have to give. Just how willing are you to give when it comes to the Canadiens assets. Have a turn in the GM's seat and tell us what you think of your trade assets.
But to get in this league, you have to give. Just how willing are you to give when it comes to the Canadiens assets. Have a turn in the GM's seat and tell us what you think of your trade assets.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
First Half Check-Up
Other Forwards
Finally, the checking forwards. our supposed depth. For posterity, here's how they did in the second 20 game stretch of the season.
Jeff Halpern
Grade:
Mathieu Darche
Grade:
Travis Moen
Grade:
Tom Pyatt
Grade:
Lars Eller
Grade:
David Desharnais
Grade:
Maxim Lapierre
Grade:
Dustin Boyd
Grade:
Legend:
G, A, Pts, Dome - you know already
PM - Plus/minus
Ch +/- - Differential in scoring chances at even strength
Fenwick - Shots and missed shots for minus those against at ES
Corsi - Shots, missed shots and blocked shots for minus those against at ES
Jeff Halpern
Grade:
B+
Jeff was a different player in the first twenty games than he was in the second. That said, the surprise from him was the first twenty and not the second twenty. Even if he's no longer an offensive contributor, he still brings what the team supposedly sought when they signed him -- a solid NHLer who can play in a few different roles.
Mathieu Darche
Grade:
A-
Darche has had a very nice second quarter season. Playing from a variety of lines, he has more often than not provided a spark. Have a look at his Corsi and Fenwick columns to see that he completely outclassed whoever he was on against. The trouble that remains is that for all this, he is even in plus minus -- perhaps witness to the fact he is still a third line type scorer. Still an incredible asset to have found in the way the team did.
Travis Moen
Grade:
C+
Moen is quite a consistent player. I would never expect a horrible game from him. Nor would I expect to be blown away. When the team signed Travis, it was thought he could contribute in small bits when the other forwards might be on down cycles. I think we now know that is not what he can do. You hope in a slump that the 4th line might provide some spark. instead in these back to earth 20 games, Travis was outchanced as badly as almost anyone else.
Tom Pyatt
Grade:
B-
Last time I said something about how every team needs a player that can just play a responsible game, not get scored on and take a small salary for doing it. Pyatt does that. I don't have much more to say about him.
Lars Eller
Grade:
B+
Eller's been doing a lot of things right. Ultimately, though, at some point he has to learn how to turn doing a lot of things right into numbers that will help the team -- pushed in goal here or there, a penalty drawn. Despite what looked like a good improvement on first quarter numbers, Eller actually gets a downgrade. This is because in the second quarter he was promoted on several occasions and just failed to seize the moment. I'm not talking about not scoring gamewinners here, I'm talking about the fact his play suffered when he was moved up a line. he needs to work this out to make the next level.
David Desharnais
Grade:
N/A
The cat may be out of the bag now, but at 41 games there wasn't much evidence. David shows extraordinary skill at times, but is yet to show the St. Louis or Briere ability to make us forget he is small. We need more time to view him.
Maxim Lapierre
Grade:
D
This is a bit of a different review. He's getting a D mostly because he proved himself to be an unreasonable person who took a lot for granted. For a guy who had a horrible first season with the coach and then followed with a horrible opening 20 games, I was a bit shocked to hear he asked for a trade because he felt cheated of ice time. I think at times we felt cheated because he was getting too much ice time, no? It's a shame that Max asked for that trade, i never thought self-interest was what he was about.
Dustin Boyd
Grade:
D
Not a very good start to his Habs career so far. And to be in the shadow of a player with 11 goals and 20-odd points makes it worse. Dustin can't get such a low mark for his play, but I can only surmise that in practice and elsewhere he can't have impressed the coaches too much, as there would have otherwise been plenty of opportunity for him to play a few more games. With depth being as thin as it is in Habsland, don't be too surprised if Boyd makes a glorious recovery from Hamilton and is called back into the team.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Other Forwards At The Quarter Pole
Moving on now to the forwards. Finally up are the other forwards without whim, the Habs record might look a whole lot different.
Jeff Halpern
Grade:
That said, he has had his low points. Off games where he seems to lose the assets he brings in other games. He'd have full marks if not for these.
Dustin Boyd
Grade:
Still, one can't give marks for aspirations. Over his limited playing time, Boyd made little to no impression. Some fans think he is called Justin. He was pretty consistently negative in all categories and unable to score except in game one. Still, he sat tight, did what he was asked and played in a few wins. He gets a boost for that.
Travis Moen
Grade:
Moen still gets a good grade as a role player on this Habs team.His ideal role resides on the fourth line, doing what he is told for 10 minutes an outing.I didn't hold Gomez's salary against him, so i won;t here. But it's worth considering if Moen brings an extra million to the table on a cap-strapped team.
Maxim Lapierre
Grade:
I am happy to say that Lapierre is already on his way to upgrading though, as Game #21 was an inspired effort from the guy who would seem set to make me look a fool with my grading.
Mathieu Darche
Grade:
Still, not every NHL GM of the last decade missed out on something here. Mathieu is what he is. What I think that might be is a guy with some talent, but not enough to push through tight checking. He's an excellent option for third line duty, however, and a reason the Habs have the record they do. I'd like to see my fellow Redmen back in the lineup.
Lars Eller
Grade:
If you think an A grade is high, I'd only justify it by saying that taking the minutes he's given without complaining or skating a single sulky shift, together with the way he thoroughly has outchanced, outshot and out-attempted his opposition is enough.
Tom Pyatt
Grade:
At the end of the day, I suppose one can't be excited about every player on a 19-man outfit. I suppose every team needs a quietly effective and mostly dull option to send out for 10 minutes. Pyatt does this well, and doesn't seem to complain or seek out more. Maybe I'm too hard on him. I still think I might like to see Palushaj, though.
The legend again:
G, A, Pts - you know already
PM - Plus/minus
Ch +/- - Differential in scoring chances at even strength (these chances combined by Olivier are basically shots, misses and blocked shots that happen from danger areas)
Fenwick - Shots and missed shots for minus those against at ES
Corsi - Shots, missed shots and blocked shots for minus those against at ES
Dome - Dome for that game = 1
Jeff Halpern
Grade:
A-
At 20 games, I think it's fair to say Halpern was a good signing. For minimum salary he provides a good third line option, a penalty killing deputy for Plekanec and, so far at least, some surprising offense.That said, he has had his low points. Off games where he seems to lose the assets he brings in other games. He'd have full marks if not for these.
Dustin Boyd
Grade:
C
Through a combination of missing a golden opportunity to take a top line spot and then being benched for missing that opportunity, Boyd was rendered pretty well useless. It's a hard read to know if he could recover from this point. I tend to think he might deserve a chanceStill, one can't give marks for aspirations. Over his limited playing time, Boyd made little to no impression. Some fans think he is called Justin. He was pretty consistently negative in all categories and unable to score except in game one. Still, he sat tight, did what he was asked and played in a few wins. He gets a boost for that.
Travis Moen
Grade:
B+
Moen tries. my goodness he tries. And I admire that. I just wish it wouldn't be reason to keep giving him scoring line duty. The guy for all his effort has stuffed many a scoring play already because he either never expected a pass (not used to playing with people who deliver) or can't handle it if it comes (not used to having to deal with passes).Moen still gets a good grade as a role player on this Habs team.His ideal role resides on the fourth line, doing what he is told for 10 minutes an outing.I didn't hold Gomez's salary against him, so i won;t here. But it's worth considering if Moen brings an extra million to the table on a cap-strapped team.
Maxim Lapierre
Grade:
C
This is Dustin Boyd's profile pro-rated to 20 games. There's little to get excited about. It is more reminiscent of the Lapierre that went about 40 games without making a contribution last regular season than the one who scored clutch goals in the playoffs.I am happy to say that Lapierre is already on his way to upgrading though, as Game #21 was an inspired effort from the guy who would seem set to make me look a fool with my grading.
Mathieu Darche
Grade:
B
Four excellent games get Mathieu a B. In those four games, he was truly among the outstanding Habs. He helped Halpern look better and helped Pouliot finally score a goal.Still, not every NHL GM of the last decade missed out on something here. Mathieu is what he is. What I think that might be is a guy with some talent, but not enough to push through tight checking. He's an excellent option for third line duty, however, and a reason the Habs have the record they do. I'd like to see my fellow Redmen back in the lineup.
Lars Eller
Grade:
A-
You know, it takes a lot for a rookie to play 20 games under Jacques Martin with only a single benching. Even more in an environment where goals are scarce and he's not providing any. That is the testament to Lars Eller's start. Though he hasn't made the impression of a Jeff Skinner on the NHL web page, his play has been good all around apart from that inconvenient truth.If you think an A grade is high, I'd only justify it by saying that taking the minutes he's given without complaining or skating a single sulky shift, together with the way he thoroughly has outchanced, outshot and out-attempted his opposition is enough.
Tom Pyatt
Grade:
B-
Blah. It's entirely possible that an AHLer might be worse than Pyatt, that he might bleed shots and chances against. but at this point, this fan is willing to find out. Pyatt is Mr. Responsible at times, but he cheats on D like MAB would cheat on O. His tendency to turn back before pressing forward belies his statistics that do him a favour.At the end of the day, I suppose one can't be excited about every player on a 19-man outfit. I suppose every team needs a quietly effective and mostly dull option to send out for 10 minutes. Pyatt does this well, and doesn't seem to complain or seek out more. Maybe I'm too hard on him. I still think I might like to see Palushaj, though.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Canadiens Draft Review
Just a look at how I thought the two days went, picks, trades and all.
Trading up
The Canadiens first move of the day was to trade up in the draft order. In order to climb 5 places in the first round, the Canadiens dealt the 57th pick for the 113th pick (a 56 player drop).
The Canadiens presumably make this trade because they got itchy about the Tinordi pick – they had, after all, printed a shirt for the kid. Obviously Phoenix was not in play for Tinordi, else no trade. But were the other four teams? Buffalo’s next pick was Mark Pysyk, a biggish defender. Chicago took a forward, but took several biggish US defenders later on. Florida took Petrovic, a big Dman at #36. Washington took Kuznetzov, then Galiev.
I think it’s fair to say the Canadiens inkling about Tinordi (if other scouts rated him at all) was right. Had they waited 5 picks, they’d have risked missing out on him and wasting money on a shirt.
So from that point of view, it was the right move.
But think of it another way. Had the Canadiens not traded, had the Canadiens missed Tinordi, would the situation have been so awful?
Remember that in addition to being able to take a decent players at #27, they’d also have had a second rounder. In my dream world, that would mean they’d select a couple of scoring prospects (maybe Etem and Pulkkinen, maybe Nelson and McKegg, who knows), and it that dream world, I think we net out ever so slightly better.
Given they took quite a swing for the fences on pick #113, I can forgive the trade, though.
I’m neutral on it.
Trades they didn’t make
Hindsight is 20:20, and it’s a favourite tool of armchair commentators like myself. Hindsight at this draft tells us that several players dropped quite a bit further than expected, that quite a lot of players were available at unexpected times.
Pulkkinen, who I rate, went a mere 2 picks ahead of the Canadiens first 4th round selection. Not shifting picks around at that stage is a missed opportunity for me. Then again, I don’t have a scouting staff.
Similarly, a low volume of picks in an unclear draft only makes the gambling more intense. That 27th pick for a couple of picks might have been welcome. Or seeing who they picked anyway, trying to turn some 4th rounders into a few more 6th rounders.
Seeing as all GMs seemed to want to get to the beach, I won’t fault Montreal here too much either. Trades not made aren’t damaging.
I’m ambivalent on this.
Jarred Tinordi (Stats)
I think we all agree that you can’t teach big. But we might also agree there’s a big difference between Zdeno Chara and Andy Sutton. Big isn’t everything. But teach a big man to play with his size, well then you have a cornerstone piece.
As picks go, I don’t mind this one at all. It’s not the optimal pick, yet there are so many worse scenarios, so many worse picks. If uber-talented scorers are the rarest commodity in the league, then massive, qualified defencemen must be among the next rarest. In addition, the Canadiens took the biggest, and from what I read the best of the big defencemen available.
A good start.
Mark MacMillan (Stats)
An interesting prospect from the BCHL. Allegedly 6 feet tall and a mere 150 lbs. I’d love to see this guy in person, he must be a beanpole.
But he wasn’t picked for his stature. He was picked because as a rookie in the BCHL with the Alberni Valley Bulldogs, MacMillan racked up 26 goals and 54 assists in 59 games – good enough for 9th in league scoring. In doing so, Mark also won the BCHL rookie of the year honours and a place on the very interesting North Dakota Fighting Sioux hockey team.
Like all drafted players, his coach thinks he’s a special player. That doesn’t tell me much. But consider this: he turned his brother (Mitch MacMillan) from a third year BCHL 45 point scoring vet into a 61 goalscorer and league MVP. I can’t say it was all Mark, but he probably had something to do with it.
In more good news, his brother is also 6 feet tall, and at the age of 20 showed that MacMillans were able to put weight on their frame.
I like the return to the board for the Habs. Aggressive and unafraid of the critics. The pick’s a good, though not great, one.
Morgan Ellis (Stats)
Not as exciting is the 6’1” stay-at-home defenceman from the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles of the QMJHL. He describes his own first pass and checking as good, but we’ve had plenty of defenders with low self-awareness, enough to make me question his assessment.
His stature is fine, as are his points totals. Even the fact he’s from the Q is good for business. It’s just this is not a pick to get up about. He may be an NHLer, but thousands have come before like him who never made it, just as some who did made it. We’ll have to wait and see.
Overall, I think this pick was wasteful. I think a goaltender like Louis Dominique, even if he is a risk at this point, would have been better use of the resources.
Brendan Gallagher (Stats)
Another BC boy with a small frame. And once again, another BC boy with plenty of skill to like. In fact, if you want to get down to it, Gallagher is the best pick the Habs made after Tinordi. While MacMillan put on a show in the BCHL as a rookie, Gallagher did the trick in the WHL regular season, and then again in the playoffs. 41 goals in 72 games in the season says goalscorer, for certain. 11 goals and 21 points in 16 playoff tilts speaks to some clutch ability.
Obviously the downside here is size. But the Canadiens play the odds well, as Gallagher dropped because of size, not skill. Pick a big guy at 147th overall, and it means 30 scouting teams were either very wrong about him, or that he is a total late bloomer, so who’s to know.
The risk here is worthy, though it may be interesting to see which of the Bruins (Craig Cunningham) and the Habs got the better of the Vancouver “Giants” duo.
Considering all that came after, this pick was a move in the right direction for me. A winner.
John Westin (Stats)
As if to assuage those of us who call for Swedes mad for skill, Timmins and his team dug deep and picked John Westin from the MoDo system.
At three picks from the end of the draft, I have to say you can’t do much better than picking a 6’O”, 183 lbs Swede with a touch around the net.
Though his numbers are only from Sweden’s Jr ranks, they are still impressive. For MoDo J20 he managed 16 goals in 31 games, which seems like a decent total compared to his peers. But it’s his scoring at the U18 championships (3 G in 6 games) and for the Swedish U18 team overall (6 G and 10 Pts in 10 games) that truly tantalize.
This is a home run swing, make no mistake. But at this point of the draft it’s almost nonsense to think you can do anything else. What’s more, picking from the best development system in Sweden, maybe the hockey world, isn’t a bad bet in my books.
Great pick.
Trading up
The Canadiens first move of the day was to trade up in the draft order. In order to climb 5 places in the first round, the Canadiens dealt the 57th pick for the 113th pick (a 56 player drop).
The Canadiens presumably make this trade because they got itchy about the Tinordi pick – they had, after all, printed a shirt for the kid. Obviously Phoenix was not in play for Tinordi, else no trade. But were the other four teams? Buffalo’s next pick was Mark Pysyk, a biggish defender. Chicago took a forward, but took several biggish US defenders later on. Florida took Petrovic, a big Dman at #36. Washington took Kuznetzov, then Galiev.
I think it’s fair to say the Canadiens inkling about Tinordi (if other scouts rated him at all) was right. Had they waited 5 picks, they’d have risked missing out on him and wasting money on a shirt.
So from that point of view, it was the right move.
But think of it another way. Had the Canadiens not traded, had the Canadiens missed Tinordi, would the situation have been so awful?
Remember that in addition to being able to take a decent players at #27, they’d also have had a second rounder. In my dream world, that would mean they’d select a couple of scoring prospects (maybe Etem and Pulkkinen, maybe Nelson and McKegg, who knows), and it that dream world, I think we net out ever so slightly better.
Given they took quite a swing for the fences on pick #113, I can forgive the trade, though.
I’m neutral on it.
Trades they didn’t make
Hindsight is 20:20, and it’s a favourite tool of armchair commentators like myself. Hindsight at this draft tells us that several players dropped quite a bit further than expected, that quite a lot of players were available at unexpected times.
Pulkkinen, who I rate, went a mere 2 picks ahead of the Canadiens first 4th round selection. Not shifting picks around at that stage is a missed opportunity for me. Then again, I don’t have a scouting staff.
Similarly, a low volume of picks in an unclear draft only makes the gambling more intense. That 27th pick for a couple of picks might have been welcome. Or seeing who they picked anyway, trying to turn some 4th rounders into a few more 6th rounders.
Seeing as all GMs seemed to want to get to the beach, I won’t fault Montreal here too much either. Trades not made aren’t damaging.
I’m ambivalent on this.
Jarred Tinordi (Stats)
I think we all agree that you can’t teach big. But we might also agree there’s a big difference between Zdeno Chara and Andy Sutton. Big isn’t everything. But teach a big man to play with his size, well then you have a cornerstone piece.
As picks go, I don’t mind this one at all. It’s not the optimal pick, yet there are so many worse scenarios, so many worse picks. If uber-talented scorers are the rarest commodity in the league, then massive, qualified defencemen must be among the next rarest. In addition, the Canadiens took the biggest, and from what I read the best of the big defencemen available.
A good start.
Mark MacMillan (Stats)
An interesting prospect from the BCHL. Allegedly 6 feet tall and a mere 150 lbs. I’d love to see this guy in person, he must be a beanpole.
But he wasn’t picked for his stature. He was picked because as a rookie in the BCHL with the Alberni Valley Bulldogs, MacMillan racked up 26 goals and 54 assists in 59 games – good enough for 9th in league scoring. In doing so, Mark also won the BCHL rookie of the year honours and a place on the very interesting North Dakota Fighting Sioux hockey team.
Like all drafted players, his coach thinks he’s a special player. That doesn’t tell me much. But consider this: he turned his brother (Mitch MacMillan) from a third year BCHL 45 point scoring vet into a 61 goalscorer and league MVP. I can’t say it was all Mark, but he probably had something to do with it.
In more good news, his brother is also 6 feet tall, and at the age of 20 showed that MacMillans were able to put weight on their frame.
I like the return to the board for the Habs. Aggressive and unafraid of the critics. The pick’s a good, though not great, one.
Morgan Ellis (Stats)
Not as exciting is the 6’1” stay-at-home defenceman from the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles of the QMJHL. He describes his own first pass and checking as good, but we’ve had plenty of defenders with low self-awareness, enough to make me question his assessment.
His stature is fine, as are his points totals. Even the fact he’s from the Q is good for business. It’s just this is not a pick to get up about. He may be an NHLer, but thousands have come before like him who never made it, just as some who did made it. We’ll have to wait and see.
Overall, I think this pick was wasteful. I think a goaltender like Louis Dominique, even if he is a risk at this point, would have been better use of the resources.
Brendan Gallagher (Stats)
Another BC boy with a small frame. And once again, another BC boy with plenty of skill to like. In fact, if you want to get down to it, Gallagher is the best pick the Habs made after Tinordi. While MacMillan put on a show in the BCHL as a rookie, Gallagher did the trick in the WHL regular season, and then again in the playoffs. 41 goals in 72 games in the season says goalscorer, for certain. 11 goals and 21 points in 16 playoff tilts speaks to some clutch ability.
Obviously the downside here is size. But the Canadiens play the odds well, as Gallagher dropped because of size, not skill. Pick a big guy at 147th overall, and it means 30 scouting teams were either very wrong about him, or that he is a total late bloomer, so who’s to know.
The risk here is worthy, though it may be interesting to see which of the Bruins (Craig Cunningham) and the Habs got the better of the Vancouver “Giants” duo.
Considering all that came after, this pick was a move in the right direction for me. A winner.
John Westin (Stats)
As if to assuage those of us who call for Swedes mad for skill, Timmins and his team dug deep and picked John Westin from the MoDo system.
At three picks from the end of the draft, I have to say you can’t do much better than picking a 6’O”, 183 lbs Swede with a touch around the net.
Though his numbers are only from Sweden’s Jr ranks, they are still impressive. For MoDo J20 he managed 16 goals in 31 games, which seems like a decent total compared to his peers. But it’s his scoring at the U18 championships (3 G in 6 games) and for the Swedish U18 team overall (6 G and 10 Pts in 10 games) that truly tantalize.
This is a home run swing, make no mistake. But at this point of the draft it’s almost nonsense to think you can do anything else. What’s more, picking from the best development system in Sweden, maybe the hockey world, isn’t a bad bet in my books.
Great pick.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Canadiens Season Preview:
Prospects Up Front
While I don't have the data, the time or the energy to continue reviewing each player down the Canadiens depth chart to the same extent as the roster players, I thought it would at least be useful to list who's next in line and add some thoughts and useful info for those that are interested.
I'll begin at the top, closest to the NHL and then proceed down the lineup. I should note that I am keeping those players who have no chance of playing in Montreal this season whatsoever in a separate pile for now – even though they mostly represent our top futures among the forwards.
Potential call-ups
1) Ben Maxwell
First in line for a call up seem to be Ben Maxwell. Personally, I'm not sure what to make of this player. From junior to the AHL, he certainly hasn't shown a desire or ability to dominate the play. And those who say he's big must certainly mean big relative to the Canadiens smallest players, since his height is a mere 6' and his weight must be below league average.
Either someone at Hockey's Future is really high on Maxwell (yet unable to express it in their writing) or the Canadiens are starting to scrape the barrel with prospects, because he's listed as the #2 prospect in the entire organization.
At best, I think Maxwell could be a solid second liner one day provided he can gel with a talent on the wing. For this season, I don't think he'll be given the chance to gel with anyone in the NHL. But he'd do well to think about that in the AHL – especially if Pacioretty is the guy.
2) Mathieu Darche
Second in line for a call up in my opinion will be Mathieu Darche. With the team as it is, Darche looks like a really smart signing from Gainey and BriseBois. It provides the team a player that can be brought up with likely waiver clearance that not only has NHL experience, but also in playing the commuter role.
At 33, the former McGill Redman is probably nearing the end of his NHL road; and one would think that his production will decline given time. Even so, Darche, if recalled, would give a credible two-way game on the fourth line (maybe even third) with the potential for a goal here and there.
Even without a call up, Darche's value on the Redmen alum team (oops, I mean Bulldogs) will be tangible. He knows the coaches, he has NHL stries to tell and he has pursued a career with some success while pushing through adversity. In short, he has character.
3) Ryan White
I've been noticing subtel name dropping going on quite a bit from coach Jacques. While he has nice things to say about almost everyone at this point, it seems like Ryan White has been singled out for some special praise.
Though he's coming from a long way back (see rough season in Hamilton), Ryan actually looks to me like a better bet than Maxwell. In fact, it looks to me like he's been sold short quite a bit along the way. For on thing, he has better WHL numbers than the supposedly visionary Maxwell. For another, at the same height his frame isn't just projectable to 200 lbs, it already carries that many – he's already bigger. The best quote to describe is this one, I thought, as it explains how people don't expect much going in, but somehow (without explanation) he impresses:
I don't expect Ryan to make the team right away, because his Hamilton numbers do lead to questions. However, if he starts well on the farm he could be an option come mid-winter.
4) Mikael Johansson
A Swede drafted by the Wings must be worth taking a chance on. He certainly has some attributes that make him an interesting prospect. However, in between his drafting and his signing in Montreal 6 years later, the Wings were right to note a lack of meteoric progress. That's why I have to believe that this season has been bookmarked as a trial for Mikael in the North American game, because Niklas Sundstrom II is not a player the Habs need just now.
Nonetheless, his talent and production in Sweden do count for something and put him higher on the list than the next tier of borderline talent. Because of his size, if and when he makes it to the NHL could well depend on who in the current lineup needs to be replaced. Though he might fit on a line with Latendresse and Cammalleri, it's harder to imagine him getting the call to centre Laarque and Moen.
5) Tom Pyatt
If you remember one thing about Tom Pyatt, remember this: he played for Team Canada twice, winning 2 gold medals.
That alone isn't that meaningful, but it does mean someone somewhere thinks he has something to offer, and not only that, he can deliver on the expectation with wins. Usually a Habs prospect plays in the WJC and we go gaga for years after (see Price, Carey), so his inconspicuous arrival is funny in that way. Perhaps it shows the kind of player he is, he did after all win the OHL's "Lady Byng" in 2007.
Hockey's future describes his talent:
That quote, together with his CV makes him stand out among our also rans. I don't expect many NHL games from Pyatt, but get the feeling that if he were called up, he'd be capable.
6) Brock Trotter
We're getting near the niche players now, but Brock is not one of them. By all accounts, Brock is a hard worker, plays hard and can adapt to many situations. He would be an ideal call up if not for being such a small guy – though I wouldn't flinch at adding another 5'10" player, I think the tolerance of more conventional pundits (and I imagine coaches) has been tested already.
That said, Brock isn't really banging down the door to the NHL either, nor do I expect him to. His 2 seasons in the AHL now have been OK, but he has also allowed himself to be overtaken in the depth chart. I expect this undrafted player may have to get used to that again this season.
7) David Desharnais
As I listened to fan game reviews yesterday, I'd have thought that David Desharnais was the next coming of Martin St Louis. But you know what, it doesn't really add up for me. While I'm sure he must have oodles of talent to score so many point in junior, it remains that he only actually scored 24 goals in the AHL.
While you have to credit his perseverance, the drop in production a AHL level from prolific to adequate doesn't raise the right flags for the NHL evaluators. Still, you never know – a rare chance taken could lead to great things – I'm just not betting on it today.
8) Andrew Conboy
Notorious for making the AHL simply because he got booted out of the NCAA. Not a great start, unless that is, you're hoping to be an intimidator at the NHL level.
At this point in his career, I don't think Andrew could really be aspiring to be much else, do you? His numbers when he made the jump to college certainly took most hope of the power moniker being attached to forward in his case. Still, his 9 goals in 14 playoff games in 2007-08 for Omaha are the one beacon of light here.
9) Mike Glumac
Career AHLer, I'm afraid. Still, is a useful player to have in Hamilton for his AHL prowess alone. And, should all 8 of these guys and more go down with flu or something, wouldn't be a disaster in the NHL.
10) Ryan Russell
The original Tom Pyatt. His progression is steady in the minor pro ranks, but you have to wonder where the progression is leading him. At this point, he looks far more a future Mike Glumac than he does a future Canadien. However, because of the nature of the 4th line in the NHL, his combination of skating, hard work and AHL hands could make him an able stand in.
11) Eric Neilson
No player has gone more out of his way to make an impression this fall in camp than Neilson. With the Canadiens, though, his sole purpose would be to fight. And while Gainey and co. seem to be wavering over how they feel about fighting, the fact that Laraque is still around spells no call up for Neilson. Should that change, then he'd have a lifeline.
12) Olivier Fortier
In my opinion, Fortier has no chance of playing an NHL game whatsoever this season. Though he won the Guy Carbonneau trophy, he's no Carbonneau yet. For one thing, Carbonneau had NHL calibre scoring and skating potential at junior level. His conversion to defensive specialist was abetted by these facets of his game. For Fortier, he's already gone down that route in junior, which is a red flag for me (see career, Chipchura).
What's more, his defensive game hasn't been tested against anyone other than what amounts to forwards from the weakest league in Canada. Hamilton will have to be a testing/training ground for him. It wouldn't hurt if he turned in some key offensive contributions along the way to make him look more than a next-generation Metropolit.
13) Dany Masse
Missing camp is a killer for Masse, and I'm sure he knows it. His evaluation, and thus promotion prospects, have been put on hold for now. And that goes for me too – since it's hard to judge how an overage junior on a league best team will fare against better players and goalies in both the AHL and NHL.
14) JT Wyman
Almost off the books, I'm sure. Wyman may once have been a prospect, he's now AHL filler. He should go the way of Duncan Milroy and Jonathan Ferland by the end of this season barring what would need to be a miracle turnaround and injection of talent.
Not at camp
1) Andreas Engqvist
NHL ready, but contractually tied, I'd keep an eye on Andreas' stats in Sweden if you want to get a look into a player that should figure in the Canadiens plans within a year or two.
2) Danny Kristo
From the sounds of it, Kristo has the offensive skills and speed to play in the NHL. The only things stopping him at the moment are a commitment to his NCAA club North Dakota and a few late signings in Montreal to fill the roster.
3) Steve Quailer
Qualier, to me, is the unheralded Canadiens draft pick. Good numbers in the USHL, followed by a decent start as a rookie at Northeastern have jumped Qualier into my sights, and I'm sure those of the team brass. If Latendresse doesn't pan out as a power forward, Qualier is the next one in line to try to take the mantle.
4) Louis Leblanc
Hard not to be impressed with Louis' career. I'm sure the coverage he's received already, and the coverage his Harvard career will get means I can forego a big preview here. I'll say this, if Plekanec still looks like a third liner next spring, then Louis might be having some talks about how far he wants to take his university education.
5) Alexander Avtsyn
A great draft pick with a lot of points in junior. He's still got a lot to prove at his next level to show he can ever play for the Habs, let alone be mentioned in the same breath as Ovechkin.
6) Joonas Nattinen
Another big centre who could get some career advice next spring depending on how the year goes for everyone. His career could go anywhere from here, so let's just sit back and cross our fingers.
7) Maxim Trunev
Timmins doesn't exactly have a 100% record, but some of his punts have come off (Mark Streit, Halak). To play this season again with Severstal Cherepovets, he is listed as a player to watch in the KHL by Hockey's Future.
8) Gabriel Dumont
The last player I will go out on a limb to note is Gabriel Dumont. He's already been demoted back to junior from the Canadiens camps. Talked up as a future Talbot/Lapierre type player, this season it will be critical for him to succeed on the Voltigeurs squad with a lesser cast. I think that if he does that, there will be no doubt about him reaching Montreal one day.
I'll begin at the top, closest to the NHL and then proceed down the lineup. I should note that I am keeping those players who have no chance of playing in Montreal this season whatsoever in a separate pile for now – even though they mostly represent our top futures among the forwards.
Potential call-ups
1) Ben Maxwell
First in line for a call up seem to be Ben Maxwell. Personally, I'm not sure what to make of this player. From junior to the AHL, he certainly hasn't shown a desire or ability to dominate the play. And those who say he's big must certainly mean big relative to the Canadiens smallest players, since his height is a mere 6' and his weight must be below league average.
Either someone at Hockey's Future is really high on Maxwell (yet unable to express it in their writing) or the Canadiens are starting to scrape the barrel with prospects, because he's listed as the #2 prospect in the entire organization.
At best, I think Maxwell could be a solid second liner one day provided he can gel with a talent on the wing. For this season, I don't think he'll be given the chance to gel with anyone in the NHL. But he'd do well to think about that in the AHL – especially if Pacioretty is the guy.
2) Mathieu Darche
Second in line for a call up in my opinion will be Mathieu Darche. With the team as it is, Darche looks like a really smart signing from Gainey and BriseBois. It provides the team a player that can be brought up with likely waiver clearance that not only has NHL experience, but also in playing the commuter role.
At 33, the former McGill Redman is probably nearing the end of his NHL road; and one would think that his production will decline given time. Even so, Darche, if recalled, would give a credible two-way game on the fourth line (maybe even third) with the potential for a goal here and there.
Even without a call up, Darche's value on the Redmen alum team (oops, I mean Bulldogs) will be tangible. He knows the coaches, he has NHL stries to tell and he has pursued a career with some success while pushing through adversity. In short, he has character.
3) Ryan White
I've been noticing subtel name dropping going on quite a bit from coach Jacques. While he has nice things to say about almost everyone at this point, it seems like Ryan White has been singled out for some special praise.
Though he's coming from a long way back (see rough season in Hamilton), Ryan actually looks to me like a better bet than Maxwell. In fact, it looks to me like he's been sold short quite a bit along the way. For on thing, he has better WHL numbers than the supposedly visionary Maxwell. For another, at the same height his frame isn't just projectable to 200 lbs, it already carries that many – he's already bigger. The best quote to describe is this one, I thought, as it explains how people don't expect much going in, but somehow (without explanation) he impresses:
"He’s not a great physical specimen, he’s not necessarily in great physical condition, but when we put him on the ice, he does nothing but win battles,” said Hitmen GM and head coach Kelly Kisio.
I don't expect Ryan to make the team right away, because his Hamilton numbers do lead to questions. However, if he starts well on the farm he could be an option come mid-winter.
4) Mikael Johansson
A Swede drafted by the Wings must be worth taking a chance on. He certainly has some attributes that make him an interesting prospect. However, in between his drafting and his signing in Montreal 6 years later, the Wings were right to note a lack of meteoric progress. That's why I have to believe that this season has been bookmarked as a trial for Mikael in the North American game, because Niklas Sundstrom II is not a player the Habs need just now.
Nonetheless, his talent and production in Sweden do count for something and put him higher on the list than the next tier of borderline talent. Because of his size, if and when he makes it to the NHL could well depend on who in the current lineup needs to be replaced. Though he might fit on a line with Latendresse and Cammalleri, it's harder to imagine him getting the call to centre Laarque and Moen.
5) Tom Pyatt
If you remember one thing about Tom Pyatt, remember this: he played for Team Canada twice, winning 2 gold medals.
That alone isn't that meaningful, but it does mean someone somewhere thinks he has something to offer, and not only that, he can deliver on the expectation with wins. Usually a Habs prospect plays in the WJC and we go gaga for years after (see Price, Carey), so his inconspicuous arrival is funny in that way. Perhaps it shows the kind of player he is, he did after all win the OHL's "Lady Byng" in 2007.
Hockey's future describes his talent:
Heart and soul player with good offensive instincts and good hands. Can play both ways, but his size and strength has thus far made for a difficult adjustment to professional play.
That quote, together with his CV makes him stand out among our also rans. I don't expect many NHL games from Pyatt, but get the feeling that if he were called up, he'd be capable.
6) Brock Trotter
We're getting near the niche players now, but Brock is not one of them. By all accounts, Brock is a hard worker, plays hard and can adapt to many situations. He would be an ideal call up if not for being such a small guy – though I wouldn't flinch at adding another 5'10" player, I think the tolerance of more conventional pundits (and I imagine coaches) has been tested already.
That said, Brock isn't really banging down the door to the NHL either, nor do I expect him to. His 2 seasons in the AHL now have been OK, but he has also allowed himself to be overtaken in the depth chart. I expect this undrafted player may have to get used to that again this season.
7) David Desharnais
As I listened to fan game reviews yesterday, I'd have thought that David Desharnais was the next coming of Martin St Louis. But you know what, it doesn't really add up for me. While I'm sure he must have oodles of talent to score so many point in junior, it remains that he only actually scored 24 goals in the AHL.
While you have to credit his perseverance, the drop in production a AHL level from prolific to adequate doesn't raise the right flags for the NHL evaluators. Still, you never know – a rare chance taken could lead to great things – I'm just not betting on it today.
8) Andrew Conboy
Notorious for making the AHL simply because he got booted out of the NCAA. Not a great start, unless that is, you're hoping to be an intimidator at the NHL level.
At this point in his career, I don't think Andrew could really be aspiring to be much else, do you? His numbers when he made the jump to college certainly took most hope of the power moniker being attached to forward in his case. Still, his 9 goals in 14 playoff games in 2007-08 for Omaha are the one beacon of light here.
9) Mike Glumac
Career AHLer, I'm afraid. Still, is a useful player to have in Hamilton for his AHL prowess alone. And, should all 8 of these guys and more go down with flu or something, wouldn't be a disaster in the NHL.
10) Ryan Russell
The original Tom Pyatt. His progression is steady in the minor pro ranks, but you have to wonder where the progression is leading him. At this point, he looks far more a future Mike Glumac than he does a future Canadien. However, because of the nature of the 4th line in the NHL, his combination of skating, hard work and AHL hands could make him an able stand in.
11) Eric Neilson
No player has gone more out of his way to make an impression this fall in camp than Neilson. With the Canadiens, though, his sole purpose would be to fight. And while Gainey and co. seem to be wavering over how they feel about fighting, the fact that Laraque is still around spells no call up for Neilson. Should that change, then he'd have a lifeline.
12) Olivier Fortier
In my opinion, Fortier has no chance of playing an NHL game whatsoever this season. Though he won the Guy Carbonneau trophy, he's no Carbonneau yet. For one thing, Carbonneau had NHL calibre scoring and skating potential at junior level. His conversion to defensive specialist was abetted by these facets of his game. For Fortier, he's already gone down that route in junior, which is a red flag for me (see career, Chipchura).
What's more, his defensive game hasn't been tested against anyone other than what amounts to forwards from the weakest league in Canada. Hamilton will have to be a testing/training ground for him. It wouldn't hurt if he turned in some key offensive contributions along the way to make him look more than a next-generation Metropolit.
13) Dany Masse
Missing camp is a killer for Masse, and I'm sure he knows it. His evaluation, and thus promotion prospects, have been put on hold for now. And that goes for me too – since it's hard to judge how an overage junior on a league best team will fare against better players and goalies in both the AHL and NHL.
14) JT Wyman
Almost off the books, I'm sure. Wyman may once have been a prospect, he's now AHL filler. He should go the way of Duncan Milroy and Jonathan Ferland by the end of this season barring what would need to be a miracle turnaround and injection of talent.
Not at camp
1) Andreas Engqvist
NHL ready, but contractually tied, I'd keep an eye on Andreas' stats in Sweden if you want to get a look into a player that should figure in the Canadiens plans within a year or two.
2) Danny Kristo
From the sounds of it, Kristo has the offensive skills and speed to play in the NHL. The only things stopping him at the moment are a commitment to his NCAA club North Dakota and a few late signings in Montreal to fill the roster.
3) Steve Quailer
Qualier, to me, is the unheralded Canadiens draft pick. Good numbers in the USHL, followed by a decent start as a rookie at Northeastern have jumped Qualier into my sights, and I'm sure those of the team brass. If Latendresse doesn't pan out as a power forward, Qualier is the next one in line to try to take the mantle.
4) Louis Leblanc
Hard not to be impressed with Louis' career. I'm sure the coverage he's received already, and the coverage his Harvard career will get means I can forego a big preview here. I'll say this, if Plekanec still looks like a third liner next spring, then Louis might be having some talks about how far he wants to take his university education.
5) Alexander Avtsyn
A great draft pick with a lot of points in junior. He's still got a lot to prove at his next level to show he can ever play for the Habs, let alone be mentioned in the same breath as Ovechkin.
6) Joonas Nattinen
Another big centre who could get some career advice next spring depending on how the year goes for everyone. His career could go anywhere from here, so let's just sit back and cross our fingers.
7) Maxim Trunev
"Our Euro scouts describe him as a combination of the two Kostitsyn brothers,” Timmins explained. “He was the MVP of the Mac’s midget tournament earlier this year in Calgary and he’s one of the youngest players in the draft.”
Timmins doesn't exactly have a 100% record, but some of his punts have come off (Mark Streit, Halak). To play this season again with Severstal Cherepovets, he is listed as a player to watch in the KHL by Hockey's Future.
8) Gabriel Dumont
The last player I will go out on a limb to note is Gabriel Dumont. He's already been demoted back to junior from the Canadiens camps. Talked up as a future Talbot/Lapierre type player, this season it will be critical for him to succeed on the Voltigeurs squad with a lesser cast. I think that if he does that, there will be no doubt about him reaching Montreal one day.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Season Preview In The Gates
I'm just putting the finishing touches on the season preview for 2009-10, and the first installment should be with you tomorrow. For those used to checking for one post a day here, I'll try to make accommodations so that the layout doesn't cause you to miss my opinion on Travis Moen, which you've all been dying to see.
I'm starting with the forwards, line by line, top to bottom, followed by defencemen pairings, and then goalies. With coverage of a few players every day, the team should get a proper run through by the time training camp is well and truly over.
I have to say that playing with some of the statistics has been an interesting game this summer. For one thing, I don't think I quite appreciated how bad defensively most players on the team were last year (compared to the league). By the same token, there are pleasant surprises as well. In trying to be a bit more thorough this year than perhaps previous years, I have expanded the facets of the game I will look at. For completeness, there always has to be some mention of the basics (i.e., GP, G, A, Pts, etc.). However, in addition to those things, I have gone walkabout and come back with some of the metrics that people at other blogs around the league are looking at, and even concocted a few (albeit simpler) ones of my own. Things such as total chances generated (shots + blocked shots + missed shots), total chances allowed, the difference between (aka CORSI), and some newer stats like zone shift, balance of takeaway to giveaway, etc.
I should also say that this experience has made me a lot more positive about the prospect of all these new faces – as I hope reading the previews will do for you. With one exception, Gainey has done his homework here, and we shouldn't be on the cusp of a Samsonov scenario, unless something very strange occurs.
I wanted to thank both Tobalev and frequent commenter and statistics-fan Olivier, with whom I have been having frequent conversations about this year's team offline, and who both contributed to the content and the direction of these previews.
Tobalev (name still TBC), will of course be back helping with the game previews and reviews throughout the season. We hope to be able to build as big a repository on why Gomez, Cammalleri and Gionta are more than their end of season goal and point stats indicate, as we did for Koivu and Kovalev.
Olivier will hopefully continue his valuable input and insight through the comments, but also keeps himself busy with his musings on the new-wave statistics that have taken hold almost everywhere but Montreal through his own blog: En Attendant Les Nordiques.
Enjoy the skating. Not long till game action now...
I'm starting with the forwards, line by line, top to bottom, followed by defencemen pairings, and then goalies. With coverage of a few players every day, the team should get a proper run through by the time training camp is well and truly over.
I have to say that playing with some of the statistics has been an interesting game this summer. For one thing, I don't think I quite appreciated how bad defensively most players on the team were last year (compared to the league). By the same token, there are pleasant surprises as well. In trying to be a bit more thorough this year than perhaps previous years, I have expanded the facets of the game I will look at. For completeness, there always has to be some mention of the basics (i.e., GP, G, A, Pts, etc.). However, in addition to those things, I have gone walkabout and come back with some of the metrics that people at other blogs around the league are looking at, and even concocted a few (albeit simpler) ones of my own. Things such as total chances generated (shots + blocked shots + missed shots), total chances allowed, the difference between (aka CORSI), and some newer stats like zone shift, balance of takeaway to giveaway, etc.
I should also say that this experience has made me a lot more positive about the prospect of all these new faces – as I hope reading the previews will do for you. With one exception, Gainey has done his homework here, and we shouldn't be on the cusp of a Samsonov scenario, unless something very strange occurs.
I wanted to thank both Tobalev and frequent commenter and statistics-fan Olivier, with whom I have been having frequent conversations about this year's team offline, and who both contributed to the content and the direction of these previews.
Tobalev (name still TBC), will of course be back helping with the game previews and reviews throughout the season. We hope to be able to build as big a repository on why Gomez, Cammalleri and Gionta are more than their end of season goal and point stats indicate, as we did for Koivu and Kovalev.
Olivier will hopefully continue his valuable input and insight through the comments, but also keeps himself busy with his musings on the new-wave statistics that have taken hold almost everywhere but Montreal through his own blog: En Attendant Les Nordiques.
Enjoy the skating. Not long till game action now...
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Draft Week
Habs First Round Preview
The draft is upon us guys. For a brief window, we'll have actual hockey news.
To mark the occasion, as promised, I have put forward my suggestions for this year's first-round pick. I have made several assumptions:
a) That we will not trade the pick
b) That we will be drafting 18th
c) That teams will not suddenly go all wacky and leave us with a top 10 ranked player at 18
In the past the Canadiens have been guilty of saying they have picked the best player available, when what they really meant is that they picked the most reliable and safest pick. Higgins, Chipchura, McDonagh, Fischer. the list goes on. This year I'd like that to be different and I expressed that in my selection.
Not again: against "picking not to lose"
The biggest danger is that the Canadiens continue picking with their picking not to lose policy. This is the dump in of draft strategies. It is the best way to ensure you don't turn it over ad give up a breakaway (i.e., pick someone you'll never hear from again), but it's not the best way to score a goal.
If every other team in the draft was picking not to lose, it'd be fine, but it only takes a few with some of them hitting paydirt for the teams picking not to lose to, well, lose.
I think I've covered this in my other posts well, so you can have a look there if you want. But essentially what i'm saying here is that no GM in his right mind should find himself justifying picking a defensive defenceman or a defensive forward come the press conference Friday night. That coming away with Kyle Chipchura at 18, when it comes down to it is losing.
You lose the opportunity to attain something money and trades can't buy and invested in something that money and trades can buy very very easily.
So then, picking to win
Thanks to an alert on twitter, I found this great piece on Bird Watcher's Anonymous -- an Atlanta blog. What you see when you scroll down is a technique used to evaluate player worth.
The system is complex, but essentially what it relies on is a score that shows how much better said player would be if you replaced him with one from waivers or the minor leagues. Hence, defensive defencemen (like Mike Komisarek) are worth less than forwards who can score. His analysis of the 2001 draft shows that Komisarek by this method is worth 46% of a Hemsky. Surprisingly, it also shows Mike to be less valuable than Tuomo Ruutu, RJ Umberger and Chuck Kobasew (lesser scorers). What it shows is that defensive defencemen in Komisarek's league are not a good high pick -- simply because you can find a player via other means much easier than you could with a scorer, even a 20-goalscorer.
That was a long-winded way to show just what I've been getting at all along. Swing for the fences on a rare commodity -- you can fill those more boring holes via other means. This is especially true in the first round where the best are commodities are typically found. This is picking to win vs. picking not to lose.
So from my Draft Theory essay, let me revisit how I'd be drafting for the Canadiens in this first round then:
And with the 18th overall selection in the 2009 draft...
I've had a look through all the lists, I've read my share of previews and I've had an eye on fantasy drafts. If you want to do the same, by all means. I'll point you to one that differs significantly from the CSS and other lists: Fantasy Hockey Scouts. I liked it because it was different, it didn't reference broken records like Pierre (smashmouth) McGuire and Bob McKenzie and because it was original.
After doing my due diligence, I've come to two conclusions:
1) This draft is deep
2) Even so, most of the true good scorers may be gone by the time 18th comes along.
As such, I want to present a realistic option for the Habs, based on the fact Tavares, Hedman, Kane and Pajarvi-Svensson will be gone. Here goes. The player I'd be taking for the Montreal Canadiens at #18 is:
Jeremy Morin
We haven't heard much about Jeremy on the whole, despite his French sounding name and his Canadian heritage). I find that strange.
More than one scout has said that Jeremy is the #2 goalscorer in this draft, after Mr. Tavares of course, and that he has incredible hands and shot. Despite that he has slipped down the rankings:
27th on the ISS
33rd on the CSB
25th on the TSN
21st on the THN
Why dredge the depths you say? Why pick what by consensus is lower than our selection? Especially when the re will be people from the top 15 of those lists to slip to our level.
Precisely because of the players ahead of Morin on those lists. Many of them are already being described as two-way forwards. Say Jere Lehtinen all you want, but if you're being called a two-way forward when you're 17, there's not much hope you'll be a top one-way scoring forward for my team. Scorers have attitude, scorers have swagger, scorers are driven by one thing only: scoring. If a player has lost that in favour of the maturity of defensive awareness by draft time, chances are he'll already be stationing the blue line on the dump ins by the time he makes the NHL debut. Thanks, but I've already had to watch Bulis play.
The Hockey Writer's blog has good things to say about Morin:
As explained, he is fit (top half in every category at the combine) and his attitude is just what it should be: he's cocky!
With 33 goals this season in 55 games, to go with 20 at the same level last year in 28 games, we're looking at a consistent and effective scorer (stats).
Quote that clinched it (Sportsnet):
"Morin I really like because he has as good of hands as anyone in this draft," Giese said. "He is kind of a clunky skater. People question his skating but at the same time he's always on the puck, he's always winning the puck. I like Jeremy Morin..."
I have a hunch about this guy, and I like to think he has the highest potential star power of the people that will be hanging around at 18. And while I've been pretty adamant about not going the US College route for a first rounder till now, this American prospect is already slated to be playing for the Kitchener Rangers next year, barring that is, an NHL callup.
Next on my list would be Landon Ferraro
Landon's another can-miss pick. But he's a can-miss guy who got 37 goals in last year's WHL without the help of Brayden Schenn. He may be a hog, but again it's about time we had that problem with a prospect. What's more, his team's poor performance, his low assists, they're all minuses that don't bother me. Then consider the scouts who do care about that stuff still have him in first round contention.
17th on the ISS
18th NA on the CSB
26th on the TSN
28th on the THN
From what I've seen of the guy he has a shot that doesn't need an open net to score into (sorry Higgins) and he also seems to have the knack fro floating right into scoring position at the tright times. A good combination. Some scouts also say that goalscoring is not his main talent, but that it is speed. Not bad either.
Third, Louis Leblanc
I'd be as happy as anyone else if the Canadiens ended up selecting Louis Leblanc. For me he's a tier down from Jeremy Morin, and I feel he's already getting the overall player creeping into his rankings here -- that's to say, he may not be a great scoring prospect at the NHL level.
But for me, the clinching quote said it all (Sportsnet):
As gritty as they come? That sounds pretty good for someone who looks small by today's NHL standards. To me it says he competes for his goals -- and that is a requisite for someone who doesn't have the best shot there is.
It's also hard to ignore the fact that young Louis won the Rookie of the Year in the junnior US ranks (USHL). He scored 28 goals on his Omaha Lancers team and led them in scoring. That would be 7 more goals than Max Pacioretty at that age and 6 more than Danny Kristo this year. Speaking of Kristo, the two were on the same team this season, which could make for some nice synergy for the Canadiens to think about. It also means that he has been scouted heavily by the Habs and they'll know for sure whether they want him or not. Lucky break, as trips to Omaha sans Kristo might have been rarer...
Ranks:
12th on the ISS
13th NA on the CSB
17th on the TSN
29th on the THN
Fourth, Richard Panik
Panik stands out as a bit of an omission in this year's draft. It's easy to see from any ranked list that scouts this year (fuelled by their love of Detroit and their capacity to process a single variable at a time) have decided that all things Swedish will fly this year, but as for everyone else in Europe -- forget them.
Well, the last time I checked, Sweden was good, but they were not out and out winning every game and trophy to be won by landslide margins. What am i saying? I'm saying that in 10 years there will be players that came from Russia, Finland, Czech and Slovakia who will be better than some of the 20 Swedes we've been regaled about. I think Panik is one of them.
Quote that clinched it (TSN):
You're not kidding his offensive upside is high: he scored 35 goals in 39 games with his junior team last year. He socred 4 goals and ten points in 6 games at the WJC 2008 (something he didn't repeat this year though). Apart from stats, he's already big and apparently strong both on and off the ice. He's playing in the OHL next season, so any worries about his adjustment should either be put to rest or settled in the very near future.
He's ranked lower, so he's a risk.
35th on the ISS
13th EUR on the CSB
38th on the TSN
31st on the THN
Because I'm into risks here, I like his chances. Call this one a hunch.
And wildcard Toni Rajala
You want the big gamble, this guy is it. Earlier this spring, Toni played in the under 18 tournament against his peers. He was named the tournament's top forward. he scored 10 goals and added 9 assists in only 6 games. Apparently that eclipsed some record by a guy called Ovech-something. His stats in other play have been sporadic, but always in the realm of the first round prospect from Finalnd. He's been on the radar for ages and has been said to be dominant at every level he's played so far.
Quote that clinched it (Sportsnet):
31st on the ISS
11th EUR on the CSB
50th on the TSN
49th on the THN
If there's one player GMs might be kicking themselves for doubting in a decade, I feel it could be Rajala. He does have the skill and the skating -- those all important things you can no longer teach. And despite his so-called distaste for traffic, he finds ways to score. What's more if the bronze medal game of the U-18 showed anything, it's that he has another gear -- something we've come to admire in some Finns.
Finally, some to avoid please Bob
Jacob Josefson -- already gaining spots for 2-way play. Get him in a trade in 3 years if you want him that badly
Simon Despres -- very iffy. It sounds to me like there are QMJHL defenders not that far behind him in talent to be had later. I wouldn't waste a first on him.
Peter Holland -- looks to be getting big points for size.
Ryan O'Reilly -- 16 goals in junior is 5th round material, I can't explain why he's on the rankings.
To mark the occasion, as promised, I have put forward my suggestions for this year's first-round pick. I have made several assumptions:
a) That we will not trade the pick
b) That we will be drafting 18th
c) That teams will not suddenly go all wacky and leave us with a top 10 ranked player at 18
In the past the Canadiens have been guilty of saying they have picked the best player available, when what they really meant is that they picked the most reliable and safest pick. Higgins, Chipchura, McDonagh, Fischer. the list goes on. This year I'd like that to be different and I expressed that in my selection.
Not again: against "picking not to lose"
The biggest danger is that the Canadiens continue picking with their picking not to lose policy. This is the dump in of draft strategies. It is the best way to ensure you don't turn it over ad give up a breakaway (i.e., pick someone you'll never hear from again), but it's not the best way to score a goal.
If every other team in the draft was picking not to lose, it'd be fine, but it only takes a few with some of them hitting paydirt for the teams picking not to lose to, well, lose.
I think I've covered this in my other posts well, so you can have a look there if you want. But essentially what i'm saying here is that no GM in his right mind should find himself justifying picking a defensive defenceman or a defensive forward come the press conference Friday night. That coming away with Kyle Chipchura at 18, when it comes down to it is losing.
You lose the opportunity to attain something money and trades can't buy and invested in something that money and trades can buy very very easily.
So then, picking to win
Thanks to an alert on twitter, I found this great piece on Bird Watcher's Anonymous -- an Atlanta blog. What you see when you scroll down is a technique used to evaluate player worth.
The system is complex, but essentially what it relies on is a score that shows how much better said player would be if you replaced him with one from waivers or the minor leagues. Hence, defensive defencemen (like Mike Komisarek) are worth less than forwards who can score. His analysis of the 2001 draft shows that Komisarek by this method is worth 46% of a Hemsky. Surprisingly, it also shows Mike to be less valuable than Tuomo Ruutu, RJ Umberger and Chuck Kobasew (lesser scorers). What it shows is that defensive defencemen in Komisarek's league are not a good high pick -- simply because you can find a player via other means much easier than you could with a scorer, even a 20-goalscorer.
That was a long-winded way to show just what I've been getting at all along. Swing for the fences on a rare commodity -- you can fill those more boring holes via other means. This is especially true in the first round where the best are commodities are typically found. This is picking to win vs. picking not to lose.
So from my Draft Theory essay, let me revisit how I'd be drafting for the Canadiens in this first round then:
- Don't worry about organizational needs – worry about the players available
- Don't pick the player with the best chance of being an NHLer, pick the one with a chance at being a star
- Don't even bother picking the types of players you can easily pick up by other means (i.e., OK goalies, defensive defencemen and bottom line forwards)
- Trade the pick if the organization gets a better asset mix from the swap
And with the 18th overall selection in the 2009 draft...
I've had a look through all the lists, I've read my share of previews and I've had an eye on fantasy drafts. If you want to do the same, by all means. I'll point you to one that differs significantly from the CSS and other lists: Fantasy Hockey Scouts. I liked it because it was different, it didn't reference broken records like Pierre (smashmouth) McGuire and Bob McKenzie and because it was original.
After doing my due diligence, I've come to two conclusions:
1) This draft is deep
2) Even so, most of the true good scorers may be gone by the time 18th comes along.
As such, I want to present a realistic option for the Habs, based on the fact Tavares, Hedman, Kane and Pajarvi-Svensson will be gone. Here goes. The player I'd be taking for the Montreal Canadiens at #18 is:
Jeremy Morin
We haven't heard much about Jeremy on the whole, despite his French sounding name and his Canadian heritage). I find that strange.
More than one scout has said that Jeremy is the #2 goalscorer in this draft, after Mr. Tavares of course, and that he has incredible hands and shot. Despite that he has slipped down the rankings:
27th on the ISS
33rd on the CSB
25th on the TSN
21st on the THN
Why dredge the depths you say? Why pick what by consensus is lower than our selection? Especially when the re will be people from the top 15 of those lists to slip to our level.
Precisely because of the players ahead of Morin on those lists. Many of them are already being described as two-way forwards. Say Jere Lehtinen all you want, but if you're being called a two-way forward when you're 17, there's not much hope you'll be a top one-way scoring forward for my team. Scorers have attitude, scorers have swagger, scorers are driven by one thing only: scoring. If a player has lost that in favour of the maturity of defensive awareness by draft time, chances are he'll already be stationing the blue line on the dump ins by the time he makes the NHL debut. Thanks, but I've already had to watch Bulis play.
The Hockey Writer's blog has good things to say about Morin:
One word — Sniper! There are some issues with his attitude and certain aspects of his game (skating and physical fitness – although the latter seems fine as note by his scouting combine performance noted below), but he has tons of potential, and the kid simply knows how to fill the back of the net with his lethal shot.
As explained, he is fit (top half in every category at the combine) and his attitude is just what it should be: he's cocky!
With 33 goals this season in 55 games, to go with 20 at the same level last year in 28 games, we're looking at a consistent and effective scorer (stats).
Quote that clinched it (Sportsnet):
"Morin I really like because he has as good of hands as anyone in this draft," Giese said. "He is kind of a clunky skater. People question his skating but at the same time he's always on the puck, he's always winning the puck. I like Jeremy Morin..."
I have a hunch about this guy, and I like to think he has the highest potential star power of the people that will be hanging around at 18. And while I've been pretty adamant about not going the US College route for a first rounder till now, this American prospect is already slated to be playing for the Kitchener Rangers next year, barring that is, an NHL callup.
Next on my list would be Landon Ferraro
Landon's another can-miss pick. But he's a can-miss guy who got 37 goals in last year's WHL without the help of Brayden Schenn. He may be a hog, but again it's about time we had that problem with a prospect. What's more, his team's poor performance, his low assists, they're all minuses that don't bother me. Then consider the scouts who do care about that stuff still have him in first round contention.
17th on the ISS
18th NA on the CSB
26th on the TSN
28th on the THN
From what I've seen of the guy he has a shot that doesn't need an open net to score into (sorry Higgins) and he also seems to have the knack fro floating right into scoring position at the tright times. A good combination. Some scouts also say that goalscoring is not his main talent, but that it is speed. Not bad either.
Third, Louis Leblanc
I'd be as happy as anyone else if the Canadiens ended up selecting Louis Leblanc. For me he's a tier down from Jeremy Morin, and I feel he's already getting the overall player creeping into his rankings here -- that's to say, he may not be a great scoring prospect at the NHL level.
But for me, the clinching quote said it all (Sportsnet):
"He's about as gritty a player as you'll find," Giese said. "He skates well, he has a powerful stride, really good speed and he's also got a good stick."
As gritty as they come? That sounds pretty good for someone who looks small by today's NHL standards. To me it says he competes for his goals -- and that is a requisite for someone who doesn't have the best shot there is.
It's also hard to ignore the fact that young Louis won the Rookie of the Year in the junnior US ranks (USHL). He scored 28 goals on his Omaha Lancers team and led them in scoring. That would be 7 more goals than Max Pacioretty at that age and 6 more than Danny Kristo this year. Speaking of Kristo, the two were on the same team this season, which could make for some nice synergy for the Canadiens to think about. It also means that he has been scouted heavily by the Habs and they'll know for sure whether they want him or not. Lucky break, as trips to Omaha sans Kristo might have been rarer...
Ranks:
12th on the ISS
13th NA on the CSB
17th on the TSN
29th on the THN
Fourth, Richard Panik
Panik stands out as a bit of an omission in this year's draft. It's easy to see from any ranked list that scouts this year (fuelled by their love of Detroit and their capacity to process a single variable at a time) have decided that all things Swedish will fly this year, but as for everyone else in Europe -- forget them.
Well, the last time I checked, Sweden was good, but they were not out and out winning every game and trophy to be won by landslide margins. What am i saying? I'm saying that in 10 years there will be players that came from Russia, Finland, Czech and Slovakia who will be better than some of the 20 Swedes we've been regaled about. I think Panik is one of them.
Quote that clinched it (TSN):
"Consistency and ability to play the North American style of game are the two biggest question marks that come with Panik, but his offensive upside is extremely high. He has good outside speed and quick hands."
You're not kidding his offensive upside is high: he scored 35 goals in 39 games with his junior team last year. He socred 4 goals and ten points in 6 games at the WJC 2008 (something he didn't repeat this year though). Apart from stats, he's already big and apparently strong both on and off the ice. He's playing in the OHL next season, so any worries about his adjustment should either be put to rest or settled in the very near future.
He's ranked lower, so he's a risk.
35th on the ISS
13th EUR on the CSB
38th on the TSN
31st on the THN
Because I'm into risks here, I like his chances. Call this one a hunch.
And wildcard Toni Rajala
You want the big gamble, this guy is it. Earlier this spring, Toni played in the under 18 tournament against his peers. He was named the tournament's top forward. he scored 10 goals and added 9 assists in only 6 games. Apparently that eclipsed some record by a guy called Ovech-something. His stats in other play have been sporadic, but always in the realm of the first round prospect from Finalnd. He's been on the radar for ages and has been said to be dominant at every level he's played so far.
Quote that clinched it (Sportsnet):
"I don't question any of his finesse," Giese said. "He can skate, he's smart, he's creative, great skill."
31st on the ISS
11th EUR on the CSB
50th on the TSN
49th on the THN
If there's one player GMs might be kicking themselves for doubting in a decade, I feel it could be Rajala. He does have the skill and the skating -- those all important things you can no longer teach. And despite his so-called distaste for traffic, he finds ways to score. What's more if the bronze medal game of the U-18 showed anything, it's that he has another gear -- something we've come to admire in some Finns.
Finally, some to avoid please Bob
Jacob Josefson -- already gaining spots for 2-way play. Get him in a trade in 3 years if you want him that badly
Simon Despres -- very iffy. It sounds to me like there are QMJHL defenders not that far behind him in talent to be had later. I wouldn't waste a first on him.
Peter Holland -- looks to be getting big points for size.
Ryan O'Reilly -- 16 goals in junior is 5th round material, I can't explain why he's on the rankings.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Funny Carbo Quotes
Even A Day Or Two Late
Some funny stuff from Carbo the other day in this Dandenault love-in from Dave Stubbs:
I think the above is all quite funny, but especially the second bit. Does Carbonneau have enough self-awareness to know that he is the one who made sure that Dandenault played in all those games? That he Dandenault wasn't gone at the start of the year because he and the team made the decision?
Games played (decided upon by Carbo) does not mean that Carbo was right and others were wrong about Dandenault's ability to help the Habs. All it proves is that Carbonneau decides and the critics don't.
I hate to be the one to bring it up now that he is injured and he toughed out that broken arm, but I think Mat's injury will help the team by exposing the apparently closed-minded coaches to the wonders of the young players in Hamilton. We've already seen that D'Agostini was being held back to keep the Laraques and Dandenaults in pay. I think there are more, for example:
Chipchura forward > Dandenault forward
Stewart up front > Dandenault up front
Dandenault has played a few decent games at the back, but he would never have been left back there once Komisarek returned. Carbonneau uses him up front, and he is a marginal contributor up there, at best. I was vocal about Dandenault being extraneous to the team's needs in the fall, and I stand by that. "Carbo dressing" does not equate to "Carbo proving" for me. I can find the space to concede that he is a good player to put on a line whose job is to harass and chase. But I wouldn't dress a line like that given a vote. He has no place on a line that would be asked to score goals, which is what we should strive to create (four of).
Frankly, even with his marginal contribution, Dandenault still does have a place barring the promotion of 3 or 4 rookies. his versatility and the far inferior play and potential of some of his peers assure him of that for the moment.
Not thrown onto the street
Anyone that knows and reads me will know that I can be harsh with players, but value people. Though I criticise Dandenault the winger, I have nothing but respect and fond memories of Dandenault the man.
Were he to be replaced in the line-up, Dandenault the man should accommodated by the Canadiens. If we promote a better player and he loses his place now, he should be treated as the valued employee he is. He should be offered the choice of staying with the Canadiens, being patient and either playing in a crunch or leading from behind the scenes. Else, he could opt to play and the team would seek the best opportunity for him to fulfill that wish.
One thing I love about the Canadiens is that by and large they treat their players as valued members of the family. Balance with that the wish that someone show a bit more ruthlessness – after all, this dynasty of our dreams is up against teams where they would throw people right out on the street...
"In the papers and everywhere, nobody saw Mathieu Dandenault on this team," he said. "Everybody thought he was a write-off, that he was going to be traded, that he was going to be gone by the start of the year.
"He got in training camp, worked extremely hard, showed us that he wanted to play and I don't think he's missed that many games (a healthy scratch seven times).
I think the above is all quite funny, but especially the second bit. Does Carbonneau have enough self-awareness to know that he is the one who made sure that Dandenault played in all those games? That he Dandenault wasn't gone at the start of the year because he and the team made the decision?
Games played (decided upon by Carbo) does not mean that Carbo was right and others were wrong about Dandenault's ability to help the Habs. All it proves is that Carbonneau decides and the critics don't.
I hate to be the one to bring it up now that he is injured and he toughed out that broken arm, but I think Mat's injury will help the team by exposing the apparently closed-minded coaches to the wonders of the young players in Hamilton. We've already seen that D'Agostini was being held back to keep the Laraques and Dandenaults in pay. I think there are more, for example:
Chipchura forward > Dandenault forward
Stewart up front > Dandenault up front
Dandenault has played a few decent games at the back, but he would never have been left back there once Komisarek returned. Carbonneau uses him up front, and he is a marginal contributor up there, at best. I was vocal about Dandenault being extraneous to the team's needs in the fall, and I stand by that. "Carbo dressing" does not equate to "Carbo proving" for me. I can find the space to concede that he is a good player to put on a line whose job is to harass and chase. But I wouldn't dress a line like that given a vote. He has no place on a line that would be asked to score goals, which is what we should strive to create (four of).
Frankly, even with his marginal contribution, Dandenault still does have a place barring the promotion of 3 or 4 rookies. his versatility and the far inferior play and potential of some of his peers assure him of that for the moment.
Not thrown onto the street
Anyone that knows and reads me will know that I can be harsh with players, but value people. Though I criticise Dandenault the winger, I have nothing but respect and fond memories of Dandenault the man.
Were he to be replaced in the line-up, Dandenault the man should accommodated by the Canadiens. If we promote a better player and he loses his place now, he should be treated as the valued employee he is. He should be offered the choice of staying with the Canadiens, being patient and either playing in a crunch or leading from behind the scenes. Else, he could opt to play and the team would seek the best opportunity for him to fulfill that wish.
One thing I love about the Canadiens is that by and large they treat their players as valued members of the family. Balance with that the wish that someone show a bit more ruthlessness – after all, this dynasty of our dreams is up against teams where they would throw people right out on the street...
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