Canadiens Season Preview Prospects At The Back

After days of putting out day after day of previews, wouldn't you know that the first time people start congratulating us is the same day we slip and miss a day. Perhaps not slip, but in not wanting to lose my hockey pool, I spent the time compiling my lists for that instead. Mind you, I still ended up with the most questionable goalies as I do every year.

Anyway, as the title of the post suggests, this is my look at the below NHL prospects on defence. As with the forwards, I had neither as much data or as much drive to do a full-blown analysis of each of these guys. So instead, it's just some thoughts possibly mixed with scouts' thoughts and random stats. In any case, the preview wouldn't be complete without something on Alex Henry, so here we go.


Potential call-ups

1) PK Subban

With Yannick Weber on the "NHLer" list, there's absolutely no doubt who the top prospect at the back is. PK Subban, junior star, Team Canada star, high draft pick, media darling has skills and personality to make it.

What's most exciting about PK is not his accomplishment with the indomitable Team Canada, nor his more than point-per-game from defence last year, but his personal skill set. Unlike some players who win, but you can't really put a finger on why. With PK it's easy – it's his skating. As a pretty pitiful hockey player myself, I know that being unable to keep up on skates puts me at an immediate disadvantage in nearly every situation on the ice. I can only imagine the other guys must be thinking the same, only in terms of advantage. Well, PK has that advantage in spades. He had it over most junior pretenders, and from what little I've seen, I'd say he'll have it in the NHL one day too. It seems that because he's practiced his skating through drills rather than simple reliance on game day that he can do things to make it look as though he was born with blades on his feet. You'd better watch:



With skill like that, PK can already offer a talent that puts him among the elite in the NHL. Oh, that hockey were only about skating and going forward. The reason PK is not up with the team today, and the reason that Yannick Weber has surpassed him at several different steps now is because of defence – you know, the position he purportedly plays? It remains the question at this time, perhaps the only question. But luckily defence is something that can be learned with some dedicated study. And though all his highlights display amazing rushes, you might have noticed the hole where brilliant, or even simple effective pass would normally fit for a Dman.

There's a definite place for Subban and his crazy feet in the NHL. The question for the Canadiens is whether there is a place for him on a team with Andrei Markov. And possibly Yannick Weber. If he shows he can be a defensive asset in Hamilton, the answer will be an unquestionable yes. If he can't, the onus will be on Gainey to find the team who needs the offense from the back and can afford to forgo him playing his position as others might.


2) Mathieu Carle

If PK has problems finding a place on the offensively laden blueline in Montreal, imagine 3rd in line Mathieu Carle.

Long-term it would take some moves to see a real place for Carle up on the Habs. Short term, however, he has a few aces to play in order to expedite his call up.

The first is his age. 22 now, he may be more mature and better able to see where team game outweighs individual game than some proteges. The second is his direct experience in Hamilton. As mentioned, it's not been an overwhelming success, but at the same time he has shown he can do a job for a successful team against pros.

Third, and I'm loathe to say it, but it's the fact he is Quebecois. I'm not saying that he'll be brought up just to make up numbers, but the company line has always been at equal value, we'll choose the local lad. Well, for the brief period before PK really gets any AHL experience of his own, Carle is holding at least that equal card, if not a slightly better one. What's more, we've seen this decision exercised already at camp with the first cuts, and there's no reason to think it won't hold until mid-winter.


3) Shawn Belle

I probably made more fuss than was necessary for Shawn Belle attending early skates, but I did think it showed a good attitude form him at least.

If you want to read about the best of Shawn Belle, I've done that bit already (near the bottom of the piece). What has transpired since the writing of that article, however, has led to some extra conclusions. The first is that Shawn Belle is no panacea – he would be a replacement with plenty of faults, a player who would make mistakes. The second is that he has been properly assigned to Hamilton – the players ahead of him in this depth analysis are indeed better at the moment. Finally, that for all his attitude coming early, he perhaps hasn't quite grasped how his NHL dream is slipping by. His average showing at camp has been wildly surpassed by the man we put on notice (Ryan O'Byrne).

Shawn could be a call up, but really he has to do more to impress if he wants to make it stick. Hamilton is a valuable training ground for a defender like Belle, and another season like his last, on a winning team, could mean knocks on Gainey's door about a depth defenceman in a trade, if not in Montreal.


4) Andre Benoit

Andre's back with the Bulldogs after tow very successful seasons in Europe. But what stands in Andre's way is the same solid group of defenders that stand in every other offensive Dman's path.

What seems to be clear from his statistics and reports is that Benoit could step in and do the job. However, depth, salaries and midsets being what they are, it would take a lot of bodies going down, specifically from the PP rearguard for this to ever happen for Benoit. Still, he's 4th in line here because of his stellar junior record, his experience in the AHL and his clear determination to give this NHL thing another go. Don't look for him in many games, but you never know, one or two could be in the cards.


5) Alex Henry

Alex Henry, my goodness. I did have some stats on him, but not many. I can tell you that during his 2 game stint last season with the Habs he managed to do so poorly with his 10 minutes that he comes at the bottom of nearly every category we looked at in the league. So badly that one stats site I was looking at found that Mathieu Schneider's stats were being dragged through the dirt by virtue of him having worn the same number as Henry (a bit of computer confusion).

So why even mention him? Well for one thing, he's playing in Hamilton's top 6, making him call-up material. For another, he does quite well down there. While it's not time to write Henry off altogether (he is massive), it seems that his skating and awareness might be more AHL level at this point in time.


6) Michael Busto

Finally, Michael Busto – that other guy from the Higgins trade. How does 6 years in the WHL strike you? I'm not sure I've ever seen that. Sure by the time he left, he was posting good stats, but he was the 210 lb 21-year-old playing against teenagers.

His next seasons were in the ECHL, so take that for what it is. In the end, it seems that Busto was either a guy Sather wanted off the books (unlikely he micromanages that much) or that he was simply brought in to replace TJ Kemp in Hamilton and nothing more. Don't go out and buy your Busto sweater anytime soon.



Not at camp

1) Alexei Emelin

Another NHL-ready, contractually tied player in the organization. It is reported that Emelin spurned the Canadiens, though like Valentenko, you have to wonder what the team was offering this able pro.

Skill-wise, Emelin is the best immediate fit for the Canadiens. He plays sound hockey, he plays rough, he plays in that gray area of the rules. Emelin is exactly the type of player that a young goalie tandem need – someone to make opposing forwards think before entering the zone. Someone who serves notice that shots from good positions are something that shooters will have to pay for with bruises.

Anyway, this year is fait accompli, he's at Kazan. If the allegations of an out clause are true, he could replace Mara next season. If not, it'll be at least two more.


2) David Fischer

Hockey's Future says:

The club remains high on their former first rounder and the former Minnesota Mr. Hockey has slowly but surely progressed in his development.

I have to seriously question that assertion. If the club were high on Fischer, I wonder whether they'd really be leaving him in a program that clearly isn't vaulting him to a future of NHL stardom – certainly now they have their mentor/coach Guy Boucher in place on the farm.

That said, Fischer is still one for the plans. While McDonagh was the better absolute prospect, in the Canadiens scheme where Markov, Gorges, Weber and Subban figure in the future, Fischer as the 6'3" now more defensive defenceman (out of necessity) is a better organizational fit.

When he was drafted in 2006, Fischer was a tall 2006 Mr. Hockey with talent to progress offensively and defensively. As time has passed, things haven't gone quite as well as the optimists thought. Though he is still 2006 Mr. Hockey, he also now holds the inauspicious title of 2007, 2008, 2009 Mr. 4th defenceman (I now get overtaken by younger players at our school) Wisconsin. His offensive game looks ever dwindling, and he's no Ken Daneyko. It's a tale of talent analysis gone off, but not so far that he's out of the picture. A 6th defenceman out of a first round pick (with Varlamov, Berglund and Giroux right behind) isn't great, but it's better than nothing.


3) Konstantin Korneev

This guy is a forgotten prospect. I mean truly off the radar. In deciding whether I should even continue mentioning his name, I did a search and found the Habs still maintain a player page for him.

He's worth mentioning though, because though 25 is old to import a player, he's already a star in the Russian pro ranks and for the senior national team at times. It would probably take massive roster overhaul again, a transfer agreement and a few other minor miracles to ever see him in bleu, blanc, rouge, but as non-NHLers go, he ranks for us.


4) Mac Bennett

The scouting reports say good skater, good instincts and most irrelevant of all (hi Keith Gretzky and Brian Sakic) bloodlines. If that's all you read and saw you'd be pretty stoked. Mac has added some context to the reports by attending a couple of camps with the Habs now. Impressive at the development camp and again at rookie camp, initial signs are good.

The fact that Mac Bennett has suddenly appeared at #14 on the list of Canadiens prospects at Hockey's Future probably speaks more to the prospects below him than it might about him. While Mac certainly provides intrigue, the fact remains no one in the Habs organization, nor likely any of the fans writing up about him, have seen him playing real games against anyone that isn't at a US high school. For every one Sean Hill, there are ten or twenty Steve McCools, Matt Shasbys and Kishels.

What's more, this is the very easiest time to be raving about a player like Bennett. We know he had a good season because he was drafted. The question always remains with any of these prospects – will it translate into another? Will it be duplicated at a higher level? We'll see. This season he is still in a high school league, so our answer may have to wait until Michigan 2011.


5) Niklas Torp

Torp to me sounds like the Swedish Emelin. Not giant, not great offensively, but an abrasive defender who makes people work for their space. Last year was not a year of distinction for Niklas. However, as a 19-year-old defensive defenceman in a men's league, what would one really expect.

This year has started out nicely for the youngster, and he's definitely grabbed a regular spot on the Jonkoping team. Let's not get too carried away, but he does already have more points than last season after 3 games. I think it's more of an indication of increased role than any sudden offensive awakening – still a good sign there.


6) Greg Pateryn

I'll forgive you for overlooking the guy we got for Grabovski, he's pretty low down the chart. There's not much to say yet about Pateryn. He has had one season at Michigan as a part-timer and is now vying to stake a place as a 19-year-old there. As for Montreal, one can't really see him taking less time than Fischer has been, so his pro career, if it ever gets going at all, will likely be another 3 years away.


7) Joe Stejskal

Here's another in the long list of American high school defeders in the Habs system. Outstanding high school (well, of course, he was drafted after all), but lacklustre in college thus far. It says that he's had time on the top pairing, which certainly shows any offensive prowess we thought he might have had might not be as natural to him as some. Furthermore, he's playing at Dartmouth, not Boston, not Michigan. While great for his academic career, the men in green don't immediately spring to mind when thinking of future NHLers.

He's still young enough that 2 more seasons of college could turn his career around, but you won't find any of my money on that. His saving grace is that he isn't 5'10".

KHL PoachersNorth American Elitist Attitude Not Helping

It's happened to us. We've lost a Russian. One that was actually in our plans.

Back in May, I touched upon the topic of losing Europeans and Russians from the NHL on a couple of occasions (here and here).


Since then, some of the predictions have, well predictably, come to fruition. The biggest scalp for the KHL remains Jaromir Jagr, who even in his late 30s would be an offensive juggernaut in this season's NHL. And an almost as impressive catch was young Alexander Radulov, already an NHL star a mere season and half into a career. In truth, the NHL has been bleeding quite a lot of talent since May.


North American response
Back in July, I touched upon the issue again. This time it was because I was incensed by the attitude I saw permeating the big-wigs in charge of holding this NHL of ours together. They took a very elitist and dismissive tone that I didn't think could be helpful in any way:

"We don't view them as a threat," (Bill Daly) said. "We still believe the best hockey players in the world will continue to want to play in the NHL."

The NHL can stay on their high horse if they want to, but I'm not about to agree with them. For one thing, the fact that only 26 Russians play in the NHL today (compared to 77 in 2001) shoots down any retort in my mind. There is no way anyone could convince me that a member of Russia's National taxi squad (back-ups) would not play better and more exciting hockey than most of the guys on Vancouver, Florida, LA or Phoenix. I don't think an NHL coach would be able to keep a straight face while saying he'd rather play Vernon Fiddler than Radulov or Aleksey Morozov.


Valentenko and the Canadiens
Late last week, it was Pavel Valentenko (heir apparent to Francis Bouillon) who would fly the coop. At this stage of his career, it is true he is a mere AHL farmhand, but looking at things that way is naive and deceptive. My assessment of the situation is that Valentenko was one season at most from being a capable defender on the Canadiens (a team currently setting their standards a little higher than most). What that probably means is that he could play for some NHL teams right now. That in itself (if you accept my talent evaluation of Pavel) means that the Canadiens lost more than a Bulldog, they lost potential trade currency as well.

The situation is actually compounded for the Canadiens because 2 of their other top 4 prospects on defence are actually also plying their trade in Mother Russia at the moment. The famous name for casual Habs fans is that of Alexei Emelin – he who is already a fixture on the World Champion Russian National team. The other player is Konstantin Korneev – an impressive offensive defenceman.

At a time when Canadiens fans are coming to realise that Ryan O'Byrne, while big, may not be Mike Komisarek II, and Yannick Weber still needs time a mere 5 months removed from the Memorial Cup. It certainly would be nice to call upon the services of Emelin or Korneev right now. Never mind that in the future it would never hurt to have a bit more choice to put together a seven-man crew that does not include Brisebois, Dandenault or in all likelihood Bouillon or Hamrlik (obviously this is years away).


Following the Valentenko manoeuvre, I saw some of the very same North America elitism around. I point you here to my esteemed fellow blogger Arpon Basu (who normally I agree with, but not today). He had this to say as he waved Valentenko good riddance:

"But what I find difficult to believe is that Valentenko was unable to convince his family that in the long-term, staying the course with his NHL career was the right move here."

Valentenko's decision was the right one financially, I think. Without much doubt. After all, he is playing against a loaded deck when the Canadiens dress two players worse than himself and those ahead of him in the queue for a spot on a near-nightly basis. And to say that he will be banished to the KHL forever as he suggests is fine for now. But it will be an attitude the NHL will find hard to stand by once the exodus intensifies.

Arpon's basis for this statement, to be fair was a thesis that the KHL was more unstable and could collapse over the coming years and the salary structure with it. But, even this I find too simple.


The KHL plans
You see the KHL has their sights set on bigger things. And to be frank, they have better leadership with which to achieve their goals than does the NHL. Fetisov, a pioneer of international and Russian NHL hockey knows more than marketing textbooks:

“I warned Gary Bettman five years ago,” he tells me, referring to the N.H.L. commissioner. “You’ve got your business model, but if you take the best players out of Europe and Russia for cheap — you’ll kill the game, and your own market.” North America, Fetisov argues, is “a small hockey market.” He continues: “For years I’ve tried to tell the Americans to think big. Look beyond Russia and Europe. What about Asia? China? Even in India they play field hockey. Why can’t the N.H.L. see it? They’re afraid. They want to preserve their market. Now it’s too late. We’re gonna take our market share. And you’ll see, it’ll be good for the game.”

For one thing, Russia is trying to change its image. And sports is one of the ways it has targeted to do this. This comprehensive piece from the New York Times gives some good background on ways in which the central government, and indeed the President Putin himself has played a role in this (it is essential reading for anyone who shares my view or intends to slug it out in an argument over it):

"In 2002, Fetisov returned to Russia at Putin’s behest, to head up Rossport, a new federal agency dedicated to reviving the country’s sports infrastructure."

That's why this quote, which holds true for the moment (5 months into a new league), is frustrating to see from someone who should know better:

"As long as the KHL is around, it will be a haven for washed up NHL guys looking to extend their careers by being overpaid over there, or as a second chance for guys who have been banished like Ray Emery."

It is at once terribly dismissive and also lacking a bit of imagination. Yes, Ray Emery, Radivojevic and Stumpel are over there. But consider for a moment all the Russian talent never exposed to North American hockey fans (Emelin and Korneev come to mind).


The future
Lose Valentenko and I lose perspective?

It's a fair point. This stuff, though, is not really about Valentenko. Yes, his leaving costs the Habs a chance at not playing Patrice, but the current open door to Russian millions is far more of a concern considering the core of our team (Kovalev, Markov, Kostitsyn).

And, though the KHL is considerably shaky, even on the best days through its existence. Personally, I don't think it really matter whether the KHL survives or not. I think, what the NHL could experience is the generation of super clubs such as CSKA Moscow, Avangard Omsk, AK Bars Kazan. Frankly, if the NHL is relying on the KHL folding, it should realise that certain mega clubs within it are aiming to become as strong as the mighty Red Wings.

Looking beyond the sheltered North American view of the sporting world and its 5 sports, I look to football (the real version). There, the English Premiership currently enjoys top status in the world (revenue and player salary-wise). But saying that obscures the fact that there are really only 4 mega clubs in England with a couple more that could even hope to bridge the gap one day. The other European countries have their mega clubs too, Milan (X2), Roma, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich. The success of these clubs is barely tied at all anymore to the success of Serie A, La Liga or the Bundesliga.

Hockey too, if the KHL clubs are left to poach, will go this way too. The difference with football is that the NHL operates in a system that props up its weaker members to sustain the integrity of the current league alignment.

The attitude taken by the NHL leadership here only promises to let this situation get out of control. It is appeasement in the face of real power. Reinforcing their laissez-faire attitude when the commissioner needs to do a good few days work here is not helpful either, I feel.

So, instead of dismissing these consecutive events as silly curiosities. I think we (and hopefully someone with power to do something) will face reality: what will we do to help our franchises hold onto the top talent in the world?

More importantly for us, where will the Canadiens be when CSKA (operating with a much looser cap structure) come looking for Andrei Markov?


In related news, I stumbled upon this little piece as I was doing due diligence for the current one. It appears Young Perezhogin is no longer banished in some fans' minds. I guess 17 goals in 23 games will do that...

The Future Habs D: Transfers and Treaties

No more than a blip on most peoples' radar during our ongoing playoff run: at the end of April/beginning of May it emerged the IIHF transfer agreement was heading for collapse, in all likelihood.

The Hockey News carried the story.

The article notes how the Czechs are stepping into line with the Russians in their boycott of an uneven playing field with piddly transfer money for young stars. It also notes that should the agreement fall down (as seems likely), the current flat fee for players will be a thing of the past and player transfers will be negotiated on an individual basis – much like the world of soccer.

Spector of FoxSports also addresses the issue of international transfers. While his take on matters is altogether correct for the transfer of superstars (suggesting the NHL money will win the day), he does little to acknowledge the way the landscape will change for NHL clubs looking to populate their support positions with more talented Russians, Czechs and Swedes. The individual negotiation of terms for terms for transfers of 3rd and 4th defencemen and 2nd line wingers could be a turn off for the lazier NHL GMs, and the cheaper of the owners.

On the flip side, while reluctant teams withdraw, there could be a boon for teams who choose the stick with the recruitment of Eastern Europeans. The simple mechanics of supply and demand governing the process over time.


So where does this leave the Canadiens?

Like the Detroit Red Wings, the Montreal Canadiens are becoming a poster franchise for the use of intelligent European scouting teamed with effective integration strategies for the players once they arrive. While Detroit uses its expertise in Sweden to exploit the top Swedish leagues, Montreal has been plucking diamonds from the rough in Russia and former Soviet republics like Belarus.

The franchise currently has three defensive prospects from Russia (already balking at flat fees) in the development pipeline:

1) Pavel Valentenko

2) Alexei Emelin

3) Konstantin Korneev


Valentenko is currently under the Habs tutelage in Hamilton, with a North American contract assuring his availability to the big club for the near future. However, if he isn't resigned, he could fly the coop rather than stick around for life in the AHL.

Emelin is the great white hope, and is technically bound to his RSL club through next season. While Korneev (little Markov) is playing with CSKA for the foreseeable future, as well as demonstrating his worth with the Russian National squad in Quebec City.

The Canadiens could conceivably have all three players lined up on the blue line next season, though that seems very unlikely indeed. Partly due to seniority, mostly due to transfer arrangements. However, over time it seems that at least a couple of these three young Dmen would prove to be significant upgrades on other available options like Cote and Carle.

I would be happy to see any of the three with the team as we move away from washed up veterans (Brisebois, Dandenault) and make the Bell Centre a defensive fortress. I hope the first steps are taken this summer with some resolution on the best of the three (Emelin), and who wouldn't want an offensive youngster like Korneev on that second PP?

If I had Gillett's ear, I would be preparing for a presentation on the benefits of being at the vanguard of transfer activity as the new NHL system moves to a world soccer transfer market. I would suggest the following strategy:

1) Hire a transfer specialist – preferably someone who can speak Russian or Czech

2) Begin to make inroads with mega-clubs like CSKA, AK Bars Kazan and Avangard Omsk

3) Foster good feeling with Russian teams by presenting fair offers for Emelin and Korneev (maybe that Huet money he saved could come to good use after all)


The NHL:Euro environment is in the throes of change and the teams that adapt quickest will stand to gain the most (much like Detroit's scouting visions from the early 1990s).

The immediate impact of being at the vanguard of this movement for the Canadiens could be a superb defensive backline. The long-term benefits could lead to them playing with a stacked deck for years to come. If the Habs don't, some other team will.