Two somewhat paranormal coincidences to report, one being my comment on Topham's Thursday post about my "dream signing" being Erik Cole; and him being signed hours later. The second is that I apparently agree with Jack Todd, for once. Eerie.
So why Erik Cole?
In my opinion, the biggest need for the Habs up front this off-season was clear: a proven top-6 winger with size. We've all talked before on many occasions about the need for a power forward, preferably a good winger to play with the albatross that is Scott Gomez. Someone who can battle in front of the net, and not have Andrew Leighton simply look over their heads if they set a screen. Someone who can score at least 20 goals a season; the more, the better. Having another RH shot among the forwards would also be a big plus, as only Gionta and Ryan White currently qualify.
Now, we knew we were fooling ourselves if we even dared think about Jaromir Jagr or Brad Richards; and wonder idly if there was ever any talk from head office to, say, the Sharks about Setoguchi or Pavelski when they were moved. The UFA pool was fairly shallow this year, so Montreal didn't have a lot of great choices. Once Philly wrapped up RFA Claude Giroux, the market consisted basically of Cole, Michael Ryder, and Jamie Langenbrunner.
Michael Ryder
We've been here before. Ryder was a Calder-nominated rookie for us back in 2003-04, scoring 25 goals and 38 assists. He had 2 straight 30-goal campaigns after the lockout, but a sub-par 2007-08 season (likely due to personal issues related to his brother) saw him benched by Carbonneau and left to free agency. He rebounded with Boston, scoring 27 goals and over 50 points again, but since has trailed off to 33 points last season and 41 this year despite around 15 minutes of ice-time. He's a proven scorer, and at 6' and 192 lbs is large for a Habs forward. Somehow I don't know that he'd welcome an offer from Montreal, nor that Montreal fans would be happy to have him back; and there's no guarantee he'll ever return to his 30-goal form. Dallas will pay him $3.5M per year for the next two seasons finding out.
Jamie Langenbrunner
The oldest of the trio at 35, Langenbrunner is a proven 2-way forward that's won two Cups (one with Dallas in 1999, and one with New Jersey in 2003). He fit in well with New Jersey's conservative style of play and Jacques Martin would probably love him for it. He's scored 20+ goals 4 times in 16 NHL seasons and twice came within 2 goals of the mark; and has 6 seasons with 50+ points. He's got good size at 6'1" and 205 lbs. Given that he's still unsigned, I'm left wondering why - he would have likely been a decent addition to many squads and his last contract was only worth $2.8M/yr. I am guessing Pierre Gauthier talked to him, but the fact he's still unsigned makes me think there's something a little fishy.
Erik Cole
At 32 years old and beginning his 10th NHL season, Cole has had his problems with injuries with an astonishing 86 games missed since the lockout. However, he's managed to clear 50 points 4 times in that span, and score 20+ three times (with another 18-goal season). However, he doesn't seem to play well with people who aren't Hurricanes: he had a pretty disastrous 27 points in 63 games with the Oilers in 2008-09 before returning to Carolina to put up 15 points in a mere 17 games. Still, he can be productive while playing tough minutes against hard opposition, and was one of only 5 players to score over 25 goals and deliver over 200 hits last season.
I reasoned that we need a big, RH winger that can hit and score. To me, Cole was the best choice. I think he's the biggest offensive threat of the three, he uses his size and at 6'2" and 205 lbs he's far from small. If he can stay healthy, and he did play 82 games last year, I don't think it's unreasonable to think he can put away another 25 goals and help Gomez pull his numbers up to reasonable levels - but I'm expecting a fair amount of line-juggling from Jacques Martin early on and the lines might not be what we're expecting. I was hoping to sign him for a little less than $4.5M for 2-3 years, but he'll be 37 at the contract's end and not exactly ancient. The reality is that we have to pay a premium to get players from the US that would rather not pay Canadian and Quebec taxes.
Maybe less like a "dream signing," and more like a realistic one. I guess I don't dream very big. But if Cole stays healthy, I think he can be the physical 25-goal scorer we could use so badly; and it least it's a dream that has a chance of coming true.
Let us know in the comments who I missed, and who you would have rather seen putting on the Bleu-Blanc-Rouge this past weekend.
Showing posts with label Richards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Richards. Show all posts
Monday, July 04, 2011
The Reshuffle
Habs And Rivals After Busy Free Agency Period
In: Erik Cole, Peter Budaj
Out: James Wisnieski, Roman Hamrlik, Benoit Pouliot, Alex Auld
On the surface, this is Cole for Pouliot + cash and Budaj for Auld. Both moves are fine with me, even if I still think Pouliot has a special talent that I wish was a few more divisions away.
On the surface, it also looks like the Habs have created a hole on defence.
Of course they have (Hamrlik and Wisniewski were #1 and #2 at times last season), but the additions don't account for Andrei Markov who was essentially "not there" last year and that of Alexei Emelin.
Markov will easily plug the gap left by the Wizz (who did a bang up job of trying to fill Markov's position in his absence). Hamrlik, however, will be missed. Weber and Emelin are not at Roman's level yet, not even as a committee, so this is a subtraction as it stands.
Overall then, Montreal has taken a small step back so far on the backline, and taken a decent step forward up front. Overall, they look a slightly better team. Compared to themselves.
But once again, it's important not to take this situation in isolation. Just because Montreal adds 8 goals at forward doesn't mean a spot in the standings. That can't be determined without looking at the rivals and how they performed.
The teams ahead of the Habs
Last year, 5 teams beat the Habs by a fair margin in the East. Washington, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Boston and Tampa Bay. All 5 teams were active in the past few weeks and will likely keep tweaking.
The Washington Capitals, winners of the East last season may be the most improved of all. The Caps overpaid to improve their forward depth (Brouwer, Ward), but it is still improved. On top of that, they added Hamrlik and upgraded on Semyon Varlamov by stealing Tomas Vokoun from the rest of the league. Add to this the fact that Washington can claim their own "Gomezes" (players who can't go anywhere but up) with Ovechkin, Green and Backstrom coming off quiet years.
In my opinion, Washington won't be caught or overtaken by the Habs with the moves and rosters as they stand.
In: Brouwer, Joel Ward, Hamrlik, Vokoun, Potulny, Halpern
Out: Varlamov, Boyd Gordon, Andrew Gordon, Sturm, Bradley
Philadelphia made waves early with their shock trades of Carter and Richards, but true to form added the salary right back in the form of Bryzgalov and Jagr.
The biggest difference in Philadelphia should be Bryzgalov, who, while overpaid, is a vast improvement over Leighton and Boucher. It's hard to know how much Philly gave up at the front through Richards, Carter and later Leino; but Voracek, Jagr and co. might lighten the blow at least a bit.
Overall, I still feel schizo Holmgren downgraded his team by going old and young at the same time. But the downgrade isn't to the point where I feel Philly will struggle to make the playoffs.
In: Bryzgalov, Voracek, Simonds, Schenn, Lilja, Talbot, Jagr
Out: Carter, Richards, Powe, Boucher, Leino, Carcillo, O'Donnell
Pittsburgh have been quieter till now. Happy it seems to wait the return of their cavalry. If people in Montreal are excited about having Markov back and Gomez having nowhere to go but up, imagine the Pens fans delight at the thought of adding to last season's plucky team through Crosby and Malkin.
Pittsburgh also quietly switched Talbot and Rupp for Steve Sullivan, who when healthy should find a place beside one of the big two.
It's perhaps not headline stuff, but the returning wounded improve Pittsburgh far beyond anything Montreal could have hoped to do anyway. This team will once again challenge for the top and the Cup barring injuries again.
In: Sullivan, Valabik
Out: Talbot, Rupp
Chiarelli must have had his day with the Stanley Cup on Friday because he did very little indeed. It says he lost Valabik, but he wasn't a big league Bruins. Essentially the balance was Ryder for Pouliot. Payment aside, this is a downgrade. While both have been Montreal playoff benchees, Ryder at least thrives with Julien. Pouliot may or may not.
Boston's minor downgrade may be enough for Montreal to challenge. Remember after all, that Boston only pipped the Habs at the end thanks to a certain few head-to-head encounters where focus was lost.
In: Pouliot
Out: Ryder, Valabik
In his second season, Stevie Y is slower out the gates. He changed his back-up goalie (Garon for Smith) and added some depth D, but lost Bergenheim and Gagne and may have to fight off offers for Stamkos.
Tampa improved by leaps and bounds last season and will still be fueled forward by Stamkos and Hedman, but questions about how much longer Roloson can perform, not to mention how much further Lecavalier will slide, point to some vulnerabilities there for rival Eastern clubs.
I think on balance Tampa will hold their position, at least for another season. It wouldn't be all that surprising if the Habs gained on this outfit, though.
In: Gervais, Garon, Gilroy
Out: Smith, Bergenheim, Gagne, Jones
The teams around the Habs
Montreal posted a 6th place finish last season. 6th place last season, indeed any season, is indication of membership in the competitive pack, the peloton.
The Buffalo Sabres were the 7th place team last spring. They actually matched the Canadiens 96 points and did it thanks to a a flourish at the finish. The Habs beat them on the tie break of 44 wins vs. 43 wins.
All that to say that these two teams are quite close. In fact, they've been leap-frogging each other for a few seasons since the lockout.
So far from being inconsequential, the moves Buffalo made (and makes) will directly affect the Habs. This is quite a pity for the Habs, because like Washington, Buffalo went out and made some pretty substantial and positive moves.
Their defence alone merits their inclusion in any list of winners from this period. While ejecting Steve Montador and Chris Butler, the Sabres added Robyn Regehr and Christian Ehrhoff. This makes for an interesting unit at the back, and an improved one.
On top of that, the Sabres overpaid to add Ville Leino - a feisty and combative forward who would have been considered an answer to the Habs "power forward" need himself. To make space, they let Tim Connolly go, but this shouldn't be too traumatic for the team.
On balance, this makes Buffalo better. Factor in a likely return to league elite numbers for Ryan Miller behind that defence and the Habs should be prepared to look at the Sabres ahead of them in the standings for a while.
In: Regehr, Kotalik, Ehrhoff, Leino
Out: Butler, Montador, Mancari, Connolly
The Rangers were also close to the Habs. In fact, Montreal only beat them on the strength of 3 extra OTLs. Adherents of Corsi and the like will also question NYR's inferiority in light of the +35 goal differential they put up vs. +7 for Montreal.
New York didn't go wild as they have done in the past, but they scored the big goal. After letting Chris Drury go to create space, the Rangers nabbed Brad Richards to play with Marian Gaborik. This is a big improvement for a team whose lack was goal-making. The Rangers improvement is substantial and bigger I feel than a Pouliot upgrade at this point.
In: Richards, Rupp
Out: Drury, Gilroy
Finally, the Carolina Hurricanes. 5 points back of the Habs, the Canes challenged for the playoff spot right to the end.
And here finally there is some good news for the Habs. Though the Canes hung onto their better free agents, they did lose Erik Cole (an important goal-getter for them) and may yet lose others.
Montreal's slight gains get bigger compared to this relative rival who looked to replace Cole cheaply through Ponikarovsky, Brent and Anthony Stewart. Cheap replacements rarely work and these I feel make their forward attack even more hodge podge than it ever has been. Carolina's steps back should give Montreal some breathing space.
In: Tim Brent, Boucher, Ponikarovsky, Stewart
Out: Cole
The New Jersey Devils
The Devils stand in a category alone. The best team in the NHL from late December on can't be pooled with the Leafs and Panthers of this league. They must be considered a serious rival for all the reasons they have been a serious rival to everyone in the East for two decades.
Interesting then that New Jersey's balance ledger is empty. A few pretty insignificant resignings point to the Devils standing pat. The Parise signing is the biggest factor in NJ and it seems like the higher means they'll be able to get that done.
Adding basically the best all around LW in the game to any team would be scary. To add him to the team that surged so strongly at the end of 2010-11 is a bit scary.
I'd think Montreal needs to think of NJ as a serious playoff rival this year, just another team added to the peloton for those last few spots.
In:
Out:
The stragglers
The 5 remaining teams in the East should be just that come April - the 5 remaining teams in the East. Some have tried hard to make steps (Florida) and some have stood virtually still (Ottawa, NYI). I'm sure the Leafs Nation will implore us to consider them a new rival, but it's hard to see how adding two injured/injury prone centres really answers the glaring deficiency they had, even if Cody Franson is a very handsome pick up. Tobalev also pointed out that the Monster/Reimer proposition should be an interesting one.
On balance
Keeping in mind that there's still many summer days ahead to change rosters, the Habs look like they should be holding some playoff ground in the East.
The Gauthier moves (and non-moves, I suppose) put the team in a slightly better position than the one they finished in.
By my count, two teams ahead of them distanced themselves further (Washington, Pittsburgh and the three others ahead probably did little enough damage to stay ahead. IN the pack that should occupy 6-10 in the East, Montreal looks competitive. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buffalo or NYR overtake, but Carolina should slip behind the Habs, and NJ likely won't overtake the Habs without seriously damaging the record of Philly or NYR.
I still believe that Pierre must do more from now till autumn's onset. Beyond replacing Halpern, which will happen as it always does, Gauthier should probably seek to supplement his backline and even add another forward that can score. There are plenty of attractive targets left in the UFA pool (Babchuk, Frolov, Miettinen, Stillman) and teams like NJ might need to trade yet.
I'm pleased , however, that Gauthier has put himself in a decent position four days into free agency. With money yet to spend, he is in touch and could credibly overtake some rivals here. This in itself is a positive thing, as mad signings (Randy McKay) might often have the opposite effect.
Out: James Wisnieski, Roman Hamrlik, Benoit Pouliot, Alex Auld
On the surface, this is Cole for Pouliot + cash and Budaj for Auld. Both moves are fine with me, even if I still think Pouliot has a special talent that I wish was a few more divisions away.
On the surface, it also looks like the Habs have created a hole on defence.
Of course they have (Hamrlik and Wisniewski were #1 and #2 at times last season), but the additions don't account for Andrei Markov who was essentially "not there" last year and that of Alexei Emelin.
Markov will easily plug the gap left by the Wizz (who did a bang up job of trying to fill Markov's position in his absence). Hamrlik, however, will be missed. Weber and Emelin are not at Roman's level yet, not even as a committee, so this is a subtraction as it stands.
Overall then, Montreal has taken a small step back so far on the backline, and taken a decent step forward up front. Overall, they look a slightly better team. Compared to themselves.
But once again, it's important not to take this situation in isolation. Just because Montreal adds 8 goals at forward doesn't mean a spot in the standings. That can't be determined without looking at the rivals and how they performed.
The teams ahead of the Habs
Last year, 5 teams beat the Habs by a fair margin in the East. Washington, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Boston and Tampa Bay. All 5 teams were active in the past few weeks and will likely keep tweaking.
The Washington Capitals, winners of the East last season may be the most improved of all. The Caps overpaid to improve their forward depth (Brouwer, Ward), but it is still improved. On top of that, they added Hamrlik and upgraded on Semyon Varlamov by stealing Tomas Vokoun from the rest of the league. Add to this the fact that Washington can claim their own "Gomezes" (players who can't go anywhere but up) with Ovechkin, Green and Backstrom coming off quiet years.
In my opinion, Washington won't be caught or overtaken by the Habs with the moves and rosters as they stand.
In: Brouwer, Joel Ward, Hamrlik, Vokoun, Potulny, Halpern
Out: Varlamov, Boyd Gordon, Andrew Gordon, Sturm, Bradley
Philadelphia made waves early with their shock trades of Carter and Richards, but true to form added the salary right back in the form of Bryzgalov and Jagr.
The biggest difference in Philadelphia should be Bryzgalov, who, while overpaid, is a vast improvement over Leighton and Boucher. It's hard to know how much Philly gave up at the front through Richards, Carter and later Leino; but Voracek, Jagr and co. might lighten the blow at least a bit.
Overall, I still feel schizo Holmgren downgraded his team by going old and young at the same time. But the downgrade isn't to the point where I feel Philly will struggle to make the playoffs.
In: Bryzgalov, Voracek, Simonds, Schenn, Lilja, Talbot, Jagr
Out: Carter, Richards, Powe, Boucher, Leino, Carcillo, O'Donnell
Pittsburgh have been quieter till now. Happy it seems to wait the return of their cavalry. If people in Montreal are excited about having Markov back and Gomez having nowhere to go but up, imagine the Pens fans delight at the thought of adding to last season's plucky team through Crosby and Malkin.
Pittsburgh also quietly switched Talbot and Rupp for Steve Sullivan, who when healthy should find a place beside one of the big two.
It's perhaps not headline stuff, but the returning wounded improve Pittsburgh far beyond anything Montreal could have hoped to do anyway. This team will once again challenge for the top and the Cup barring injuries again.
In: Sullivan, Valabik
Out: Talbot, Rupp
Chiarelli must have had his day with the Stanley Cup on Friday because he did very little indeed. It says he lost Valabik, but he wasn't a big league Bruins. Essentially the balance was Ryder for Pouliot. Payment aside, this is a downgrade. While both have been Montreal playoff benchees, Ryder at least thrives with Julien. Pouliot may or may not.
Boston's minor downgrade may be enough for Montreal to challenge. Remember after all, that Boston only pipped the Habs at the end thanks to a certain few head-to-head encounters where focus was lost.
In: Pouliot
Out: Ryder, Valabik
In his second season, Stevie Y is slower out the gates. He changed his back-up goalie (Garon for Smith) and added some depth D, but lost Bergenheim and Gagne and may have to fight off offers for Stamkos.
Tampa improved by leaps and bounds last season and will still be fueled forward by Stamkos and Hedman, but questions about how much longer Roloson can perform, not to mention how much further Lecavalier will slide, point to some vulnerabilities there for rival Eastern clubs.
I think on balance Tampa will hold their position, at least for another season. It wouldn't be all that surprising if the Habs gained on this outfit, though.
In: Gervais, Garon, Gilroy
Out: Smith, Bergenheim, Gagne, Jones
The teams around the Habs
Montreal posted a 6th place finish last season. 6th place last season, indeed any season, is indication of membership in the competitive pack, the peloton.
The Buffalo Sabres were the 7th place team last spring. They actually matched the Canadiens 96 points and did it thanks to a a flourish at the finish. The Habs beat them on the tie break of 44 wins vs. 43 wins.
All that to say that these two teams are quite close. In fact, they've been leap-frogging each other for a few seasons since the lockout.
So far from being inconsequential, the moves Buffalo made (and makes) will directly affect the Habs. This is quite a pity for the Habs, because like Washington, Buffalo went out and made some pretty substantial and positive moves.
Their defence alone merits their inclusion in any list of winners from this period. While ejecting Steve Montador and Chris Butler, the Sabres added Robyn Regehr and Christian Ehrhoff. This makes for an interesting unit at the back, and an improved one.
On top of that, the Sabres overpaid to add Ville Leino - a feisty and combative forward who would have been considered an answer to the Habs "power forward" need himself. To make space, they let Tim Connolly go, but this shouldn't be too traumatic for the team.
On balance, this makes Buffalo better. Factor in a likely return to league elite numbers for Ryan Miller behind that defence and the Habs should be prepared to look at the Sabres ahead of them in the standings for a while.
In: Regehr, Kotalik, Ehrhoff, Leino
Out: Butler, Montador, Mancari, Connolly
The Rangers were also close to the Habs. In fact, Montreal only beat them on the strength of 3 extra OTLs. Adherents of Corsi and the like will also question NYR's inferiority in light of the +35 goal differential they put up vs. +7 for Montreal.
New York didn't go wild as they have done in the past, but they scored the big goal. After letting Chris Drury go to create space, the Rangers nabbed Brad Richards to play with Marian Gaborik. This is a big improvement for a team whose lack was goal-making. The Rangers improvement is substantial and bigger I feel than a Pouliot upgrade at this point.
In: Richards, Rupp
Out: Drury, Gilroy
Finally, the Carolina Hurricanes. 5 points back of the Habs, the Canes challenged for the playoff spot right to the end.
And here finally there is some good news for the Habs. Though the Canes hung onto their better free agents, they did lose Erik Cole (an important goal-getter for them) and may yet lose others.
Montreal's slight gains get bigger compared to this relative rival who looked to replace Cole cheaply through Ponikarovsky, Brent and Anthony Stewart. Cheap replacements rarely work and these I feel make their forward attack even more hodge podge than it ever has been. Carolina's steps back should give Montreal some breathing space.
In: Tim Brent, Boucher, Ponikarovsky, Stewart
Out: Cole
The New Jersey Devils
The Devils stand in a category alone. The best team in the NHL from late December on can't be pooled with the Leafs and Panthers of this league. They must be considered a serious rival for all the reasons they have been a serious rival to everyone in the East for two decades.
Interesting then that New Jersey's balance ledger is empty. A few pretty insignificant resignings point to the Devils standing pat. The Parise signing is the biggest factor in NJ and it seems like the higher means they'll be able to get that done.
Adding basically the best all around LW in the game to any team would be scary. To add him to the team that surged so strongly at the end of 2010-11 is a bit scary.
I'd think Montreal needs to think of NJ as a serious playoff rival this year, just another team added to the peloton for those last few spots.
In:
Out:
The stragglers
The 5 remaining teams in the East should be just that come April - the 5 remaining teams in the East. Some have tried hard to make steps (Florida) and some have stood virtually still (Ottawa, NYI). I'm sure the Leafs Nation will implore us to consider them a new rival, but it's hard to see how adding two injured/injury prone centres really answers the glaring deficiency they had, even if Cody Franson is a very handsome pick up. Tobalev also pointed out that the Monster/Reimer proposition should be an interesting one.
On balance
Keeping in mind that there's still many summer days ahead to change rosters, the Habs look like they should be holding some playoff ground in the East.
The Gauthier moves (and non-moves, I suppose) put the team in a slightly better position than the one they finished in.
By my count, two teams ahead of them distanced themselves further (Washington, Pittsburgh and the three others ahead probably did little enough damage to stay ahead. IN the pack that should occupy 6-10 in the East, Montreal looks competitive. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buffalo or NYR overtake, but Carolina should slip behind the Habs, and NJ likely won't overtake the Habs without seriously damaging the record of Philly or NYR.
I still believe that Pierre must do more from now till autumn's onset. Beyond replacing Halpern, which will happen as it always does, Gauthier should probably seek to supplement his backline and even add another forward that can score. There are plenty of attractive targets left in the UFA pool (Babchuk, Frolov, Miettinen, Stillman) and teams like NJ might need to trade yet.
I'm pleased , however, that Gauthier has put himself in a decent position four days into free agency. With money yet to spend, he is in touch and could credibly overtake some rivals here. This in itself is a positive thing, as mad signings (Randy McKay) might often have the opposite effect.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
The Flyers Success Story
Building Tips For The Habs
The Canadiens and the Flyers meet for the fourth time this season. This time, the Stanley Cup finalists sit on top of the NHL (tied with Vancouver) and are doing it with offense.
The game promises to be a good one (they often are in this rivalry), but aside from that, it’s a chance for Canadiens fans to glimpse a very well-put together NHL outfit for the last time in the regular season. Why well put together?
It’s been noted here before, and elsewhere, that balance has been a key with the Flyers. Their top three centres on some nights are Daniel Briere, Jeff Carter and Mike Richards. All first round picks, all having great seasons. Their wings are just as deep with Claude Giroux (the envy of a province), Scott Hartnell, Ville Leino, James van Riemsdyk and Nikolai Zherdev.
Surely a team like this would suffer at the back? Nope. Pronger, Timonen, Carle, Meszaros, Coburn and O’Donnell at its healthful best.
It’s a line-up with oodles of pre-professional pedigree and experience (10 first rounders) to go with their recently gained Stanley Cup teeth.
When one looks at this team, one has to wonder how Philadelphia came out on top over Atlanta, Florida, Islanders, and other perennial lottery seekers. They’ve had their high first rounders (Pitkanen, van Riemsdyk), but Philly has built this group through hard work, some good drafting and a commitment to a formula. I think there are some good lessons for Montreal managers here:
1) Big draft coming – be ready
2003 was one of the most talent laden drafts in the history of the NHL. There’s hardly a player drafted in that first round who hasn’t played in the NHL. It has more than its fair share of stars. Montreal media will never tire of telling us about how Andrei Kostitsyn (picked 10th) could have been Jeff Carter, or Mike Richards, or Zach Parise. Philly was one of a few teams that positioned themselves superbly for this draft. Prior to it taking place, they managed to turn Daymond Langkow into a first rounder from Phoenix. In doing so, they nabbed the #11 pick. In addition, they accumulated 7 picks in the top 3 rounds. Doing this affords a team with the freedom to cater to more scouts and take chances, while leaving those annoyingly unsuccessful hole-filling picks for later rounds.
2006 was the same story, deep draft and Philly was there with a boatload of picks. I’m not sure the Flyers go for Giroux at that time in the first round (their D was a big, big weakness) without the surety of 5 picks in the first 3 rounds.
Montreal’s done an OK job of this in the past (and 2003 and 2006 were pretty good hauls for them too), but this lesson just needs to be drilled in a little more.
2) Draft forwards, acquire defencemen
The best forwards are young, fast and dynamic. The best defencemen are old wise and efficient. It’s right there for NHL GMs to see, yet some still insist on picking defensive defencemen in early rounds (Komisarek, Fischer, Tinordi).
Philly has about 8 dynamic scoring forwards, any or all of which could score 30 goals. Add 9-goal Nodl and that’s nine. Of the nine, 4 are Philly first rounders, Nodl is a second rounder. Yes they added Briere, Leino and Zherdev through a variety of means, but their core is from their own scouting and commitment.
The contrast is their defence. Pronger (trade and sign), Timonen (trade and sign), Coburn (trade), Meszaros (trade), Carle (trade), O’Donnell (sign). Not a draft pick there.
Since the Pitkanen choice in 2002, Philly has had 6 first round picks. 5 were forwards. 6 times in 8 drafts their first selection was a forward. The Habs are all over the map in their first round strategy. Scoring has been a need for as long as I can remember (2008 was a blip, I admit) and the team is still drafting big Dmen.
3) Don’t be precious about prospects
Philly has had its fair share of name prospects pass through over the years. Once they may have been precious about them, but their recent attitude seems to treat them like assets until they are established. Pitkanen keeps getting mentioned and he was one. He was turned into Lupul, essentially. Other prospects that have been leveraged include Upshall, Sbisa and Lupul himself. A sentimentalist might have kept these and missed the opportunity their trading presented.
Montreal fans get very precious about prospects. Some still lament McDonagh and Valentenko. No one wants to throw away a prospect in a bad trade, but holding onto an average prospect may leave you with an average team.
4) Salary cap, schmalary cap
I’ve said cap space is overrated. Philly walks the walk. They pay the price for big parts of a team and they often go very close or over the cap. On at least one occasion, they’ve had to call in amateurs to avoid actually exceeding the payroll limit.
With penalties for going over so slack, and opportunities to bury salary in long recoveries from injury, it seems one way to create good depth is to rehab a ton of salary for the playoffs. Montreal missed the boat on this by pressing Markov to return and not insisting earlier on Gorges’ surgery. Both might have been available for later along with the depth their salary space would have left. Instead, Montreal lines the Molsons pockets as it carries cap space month over month.
5) Goaltender not cast as hero/savior, a real possibility
Philly doesn’t just happen into these goalies, they have made the choice to put money elsewhere. This year it’s Leighton, Boucher and Bobrovsky, last year it was Emery and co., Biron before that, and on into eternity. Philly hasn’t been able to hold a candle to the goaltending the Canadiens have put forward in the last two decades. Yet Philly has often been contending and making deep playoff runs, while goalie-driven Montreal has not.
Having a good goalie is not a weakness, but perhaps overpaying for one is. Turning goalie money into an extra goal for a game will pay the bills when good = 92% of saves and bad = 90% of saves.
This article could be way off. Philly made the Stanley Cup final last year, yes. But they barely made the playoffs and didn’t really beat anyone too good (sorry Habs fans). What’s more, their 69 points today is actually only 10 points out of 7th (hello Montreal) and their lack of goaltending could yet topple them from their perch.
Still, I think these lessons are good ones. They are not the only rules of operation, but rather 5 among many that Philly have exploited to find a bit of success and bottle it. They’re also good ones as there’s nothing stopping a team like Montreal from approaching things from this way right away. No one is saying they need to lose for 6 seasons (Oilers) to win, or anything.
The game promises to be a good one (they often are in this rivalry), but aside from that, it’s a chance for Canadiens fans to glimpse a very well-put together NHL outfit for the last time in the regular season. Why well put together?
It’s been noted here before, and elsewhere, that balance has been a key with the Flyers. Their top three centres on some nights are Daniel Briere, Jeff Carter and Mike Richards. All first round picks, all having great seasons. Their wings are just as deep with Claude Giroux (the envy of a province), Scott Hartnell, Ville Leino, James van Riemsdyk and Nikolai Zherdev.
Surely a team like this would suffer at the back? Nope. Pronger, Timonen, Carle, Meszaros, Coburn and O’Donnell at its healthful best.
It’s a line-up with oodles of pre-professional pedigree and experience (10 first rounders) to go with their recently gained Stanley Cup teeth.
When one looks at this team, one has to wonder how Philadelphia came out on top over Atlanta, Florida, Islanders, and other perennial lottery seekers. They’ve had their high first rounders (Pitkanen, van Riemsdyk), but Philly has built this group through hard work, some good drafting and a commitment to a formula. I think there are some good lessons for Montreal managers here:
1) Big draft coming – be ready
2003 was one of the most talent laden drafts in the history of the NHL. There’s hardly a player drafted in that first round who hasn’t played in the NHL. It has more than its fair share of stars. Montreal media will never tire of telling us about how Andrei Kostitsyn (picked 10th) could have been Jeff Carter, or Mike Richards, or Zach Parise. Philly was one of a few teams that positioned themselves superbly for this draft. Prior to it taking place, they managed to turn Daymond Langkow into a first rounder from Phoenix. In doing so, they nabbed the #11 pick. In addition, they accumulated 7 picks in the top 3 rounds. Doing this affords a team with the freedom to cater to more scouts and take chances, while leaving those annoyingly unsuccessful hole-filling picks for later rounds.
2006 was the same story, deep draft and Philly was there with a boatload of picks. I’m not sure the Flyers go for Giroux at that time in the first round (their D was a big, big weakness) without the surety of 5 picks in the first 3 rounds.
Montreal’s done an OK job of this in the past (and 2003 and 2006 were pretty good hauls for them too), but this lesson just needs to be drilled in a little more.
2) Draft forwards, acquire defencemen
The best forwards are young, fast and dynamic. The best defencemen are old wise and efficient. It’s right there for NHL GMs to see, yet some still insist on picking defensive defencemen in early rounds (Komisarek, Fischer, Tinordi).
Philly has about 8 dynamic scoring forwards, any or all of which could score 30 goals. Add 9-goal Nodl and that’s nine. Of the nine, 4 are Philly first rounders, Nodl is a second rounder. Yes they added Briere, Leino and Zherdev through a variety of means, but their core is from their own scouting and commitment.
The contrast is their defence. Pronger (trade and sign), Timonen (trade and sign), Coburn (trade), Meszaros (trade), Carle (trade), O’Donnell (sign). Not a draft pick there.
Since the Pitkanen choice in 2002, Philly has had 6 first round picks. 5 were forwards. 6 times in 8 drafts their first selection was a forward. The Habs are all over the map in their first round strategy. Scoring has been a need for as long as I can remember (2008 was a blip, I admit) and the team is still drafting big Dmen.
3) Don’t be precious about prospects
Philly has had its fair share of name prospects pass through over the years. Once they may have been precious about them, but their recent attitude seems to treat them like assets until they are established. Pitkanen keeps getting mentioned and he was one. He was turned into Lupul, essentially. Other prospects that have been leveraged include Upshall, Sbisa and Lupul himself. A sentimentalist might have kept these and missed the opportunity their trading presented.
Montreal fans get very precious about prospects. Some still lament McDonagh and Valentenko. No one wants to throw away a prospect in a bad trade, but holding onto an average prospect may leave you with an average team.
4) Salary cap, schmalary cap
I’ve said cap space is overrated. Philly walks the walk. They pay the price for big parts of a team and they often go very close or over the cap. On at least one occasion, they’ve had to call in amateurs to avoid actually exceeding the payroll limit.
With penalties for going over so slack, and opportunities to bury salary in long recoveries from injury, it seems one way to create good depth is to rehab a ton of salary for the playoffs. Montreal missed the boat on this by pressing Markov to return and not insisting earlier on Gorges’ surgery. Both might have been available for later along with the depth their salary space would have left. Instead, Montreal lines the Molsons pockets as it carries cap space month over month.
5) Goaltender not cast as hero/savior, a real possibility
Philly doesn’t just happen into these goalies, they have made the choice to put money elsewhere. This year it’s Leighton, Boucher and Bobrovsky, last year it was Emery and co., Biron before that, and on into eternity. Philly hasn’t been able to hold a candle to the goaltending the Canadiens have put forward in the last two decades. Yet Philly has often been contending and making deep playoff runs, while goalie-driven Montreal has not.
Having a good goalie is not a weakness, but perhaps overpaying for one is. Turning goalie money into an extra goal for a game will pay the bills when good = 92% of saves and bad = 90% of saves.
This article could be way off. Philly made the Stanley Cup final last year, yes. But they barely made the playoffs and didn’t really beat anyone too good (sorry Habs fans). What’s more, their 69 points today is actually only 10 points out of 7th (hello Montreal) and their lack of goaltending could yet topple them from their perch.
Still, I think these lessons are good ones. They are not the only rules of operation, but rather 5 among many that Philly have exploited to find a bit of success and bottle it. They’re also good ones as there’s nothing stopping a team like Montreal from approaching things from this way right away. No one is saying they need to lose for 6 seasons (Oilers) to win, or anything.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Game #21
Shots, Not Hits, Lead Philly Past Habs
Details
Date: 22/11/2010
Opponent: Flyers
Location: Philadelphia
Loss: 2-3
Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Boucher (W)
Habs goalscorers: Lapierre (2)
Opposition goalscorers: Leino, Giroux, van Riemsdyk
Play of the game
A compound play of the game. Price has Briere and Carter bearing down on him. The pass comes across to Carter and Price makes the save of the game on the PK. Meanwhile, the puck flies behind the net, our regular everyday assistant captain battles behind the net and wins the puck in time that Price can find his feet. So well he wins it, that the suddenly extremely dirty Daniel Briere pulls him back and negates a good chance to take an important PP. Let's never mind what happened on 4-on-4.
Dome hockey team
The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the domeMaxim Lapierre - Game Puck
Maxim Lapierre got it this evening. Maybe he anticipated what his upcoming Quarter Pole review is going to say. He set the tone for the game early with decent shots on a very shaky goaltender. His first goal was no wimpy shot, even if it should have been saved, and his second goals was a well-prepared and taken one.
Benoit Pouliot
As the Canadiens led, Pouliot was impressing. I thought, dome in hand. The towards the end of the game, I wondered where he went, why his play had diminished to the point of being unrecognizable. Turns out it wasn't Ben, it was good old coach stacking the minutes of other forwards. On this night, martin made a tactical error in not identifying Pouliot's strong start. I'd have had him out there much more than his 11 minutes.
Tomas Plekanec
Tomas played a decent game by his standards. He actually did quite well against the tight coverage of Pronger, better than in the past. Several times, he was able to break inside instead of being forced outside. Tonight, he's really in here because he did another good job on the PK. Of the two forwards killing penalties, I always notice Plekanec as the thinker, the one who doesn't just go through the motions at the top of the box.
Defencemen
Roman Hamrlik
Please get Roman onto the number one PP unit. he hit the post tonight as he continues to show why an accurate wrist shot is better than 27 PK Subban backswing specials. On the back end, Roman had as good a game as a defender can have when in the process of allowing 42 shots.
Alexandre Picard
As I've said before, we're learning each game that not all French Canadian last minute signings on D are equal. Picard is a much better defender than his 2 predecessors as he keeps things relatively simple. Tonight, I felt he had a good outing and actually covered quite a bit for what I thought was an off-game for the possibly distracted Subban.
Goaltender
Carey Price
Another great start from Price. His preparation for games this season is truly impressive, and more than his suddenly nimble arm, is the biggest reason for his gulf in statistical showing. He definitely gave his team the chance to win, even late, and for that he wins his 20th dome in 20 starts – an unprecedented feat on this blog. While Auld may never get a dome from Price's largesse, it's about time he gets chance to win one through play. Price is hot, and riding high and a game off won't change that. Auld hasn't played in a month, and it's not always wise to leave back-ups on the shelf for such long periods, as you never know when you might suddenly need an able alternative.
Comments
Considering how well the Flyers did play, Habs fans must again be encouraged by their team. To hold them so long, to keep shots outside, to take the lead and then hang in until the end, the Canadiens proved themselves to be true contenders. And this when not firing as fully themselves.
Wednesday is the Kings. The newly excellent Kings. I feel the Canadiens have a good chance as they line up well. Their goalie is off to a quick start, but as Mathman will attest, he'll not sustain over 0.930 forever. What's more, Montreal mustn't look at teams with 26 points from 20 as out of their league anymore.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
The Auld Enemy
Flyers Preview
Ever since the Flyers have existed, they have been the enemy of the Montreal Canadiens. The city that was once home to some of the greatest intellectuals the world has seen now has a hockey team that leaves intellectuals cold.
If Montreal builds hockey teams that inspire poetry (maybe not lately), then Philly has always been a tabloid team. The two philosophies may never be reconciled, but when they intersect, it is always interesting. So tonight.
Key match-ups
Montreal goalie vs. Philadelphia shots
No matter the record, the momentum, two of the last three playoff exits happened because Montreal goalies went stone cold when facing Philadelphia shots. Some might dismiss this as simple coincidence, as luck catching up with people. I wonder as Philly locks up another sharpshooting duo, whether it's so simple.
Plekanec vs. Pronger
Plekanec is the best player on the Canadiens. Pronger (given the right refereeing) is the best at his trade. Last playoffs, Plekanec was not his regular season self under the stifling Philly blanket. This game is a chance to prove either a) he has learned from that, or b) refereeing is critical to how this match-up goes.
Picard and Mike Richards
Throwing Picard out against most teams' third lines is a relatively safe bet. You get the match up, you can limit his exposure to true skill. Philly has depth with Carter, Briere and Richards down the middle to go with Giroux (11 goals), Leino, Hartnell, Zherdev and van Riemsdyk. I'm only going by message board lines for Richards, but any third line pair from those 8 poses a challenge.
Price vs. Bobrovsky
The NHL first star of the week and the NHL rookie of the year to date. As Montreal revels in their goaltending choice, Philly may at long last finally be revelling in a good decision at the back end. Bobrovsky brings in a 2.01 and 0.930 in 14 games , so this should be a match-up of two of the hottest so far this year.
Momentum
Montreal had something very good building until that crushing knee collision. With Markov firing, this team was quietly and not so quietly dominating games. Philly has their own, of course. They haven't lost in November (fully) and have scared the league with their out-of-town scoreboard updates. It's two hot teams, tow hot goalies, but only one having to deal with the loss of a keystone player. Advantage Philly on momentum.
Flyers the Habs covet
Claude Giroux
If Pierre Gauthier could have his scouts redo one pick in his tenure, it might be this one. Kostitsyn vs. Carter or Richards, well at least Kostitsyn plays. Mr. High School Hockey vs. Franco-Ontarian QMJHL scoring star, now that's a flub. His 11 goals lead one of the most solid teams in the NHL. Fischer plays for the Florida Everblades...
Andrej Meszaros
The Canadiens have thrown around second round picks like it's nobody's business recently, but they have never made one into a defender like Meszaros. Meszaros is expensive, but he has potential and youth. After this season when Hamrlik, Gill and others depart, starting a stable with someone like Meszaros beside Subban would feel better than say Mathieu Carle.
Habs the Flyers covet
Josh Gorges
The Flyers have names on D, but if they have a weakness it may be there lack of quiet (and cheaper) efficiency. Josh Gorges is what they need to complement their big D.
Carey Price
Bobrovsky or not, the Flyers could use Price. He's more seasoned than the rookie Russian (as they look to contend now) and it wouldn't hurt his skills to practice against the shooters he has most trouble with.
Impact of this result
Both teams at this point will shrug off a loss quite easily. Both teams are just about due. The value of winning in Montreal may be greater due to the playoff hangover and the feeling that the Habs have won against the lesser crowd so far (I don't agree with the latter). The impact of a win for Philly may be the firming up of an Achilles heel for the Montrealers, depending on the result.
If Montreal builds hockey teams that inspire poetry (maybe not lately), then Philly has always been a tabloid team. The two philosophies may never be reconciled, but when they intersect, it is always interesting. So tonight.
Key match-ups
Montreal goalie vs. Philadelphia shots
No matter the record, the momentum, two of the last three playoff exits happened because Montreal goalies went stone cold when facing Philadelphia shots. Some might dismiss this as simple coincidence, as luck catching up with people. I wonder as Philly locks up another sharpshooting duo, whether it's so simple.
Plekanec vs. Pronger
Plekanec is the best player on the Canadiens. Pronger (given the right refereeing) is the best at his trade. Last playoffs, Plekanec was not his regular season self under the stifling Philly blanket. This game is a chance to prove either a) he has learned from that, or b) refereeing is critical to how this match-up goes.
Picard and Mike Richards
Throwing Picard out against most teams' third lines is a relatively safe bet. You get the match up, you can limit his exposure to true skill. Philly has depth with Carter, Briere and Richards down the middle to go with Giroux (11 goals), Leino, Hartnell, Zherdev and van Riemsdyk. I'm only going by message board lines for Richards, but any third line pair from those 8 poses a challenge.
Price vs. Bobrovsky
The NHL first star of the week and the NHL rookie of the year to date. As Montreal revels in their goaltending choice, Philly may at long last finally be revelling in a good decision at the back end. Bobrovsky brings in a 2.01 and 0.930 in 14 games , so this should be a match-up of two of the hottest so far this year.
Momentum
Montreal had something very good building until that crushing knee collision. With Markov firing, this team was quietly and not so quietly dominating games. Philly has their own, of course. They haven't lost in November (fully) and have scared the league with their out-of-town scoreboard updates. It's two hot teams, tow hot goalies, but only one having to deal with the loss of a keystone player. Advantage Philly on momentum.
Flyers the Habs covet
Claude Giroux
If Pierre Gauthier could have his scouts redo one pick in his tenure, it might be this one. Kostitsyn vs. Carter or Richards, well at least Kostitsyn plays. Mr. High School Hockey vs. Franco-Ontarian QMJHL scoring star, now that's a flub. His 11 goals lead one of the most solid teams in the NHL. Fischer plays for the Florida Everblades...
Andrej Meszaros
The Canadiens have thrown around second round picks like it's nobody's business recently, but they have never made one into a defender like Meszaros. Meszaros is expensive, but he has potential and youth. After this season when Hamrlik, Gill and others depart, starting a stable with someone like Meszaros beside Subban would feel better than say Mathieu Carle.
Habs the Flyers covet
Josh Gorges
The Flyers have names on D, but if they have a weakness it may be there lack of quiet (and cheaper) efficiency. Josh Gorges is what they need to complement their big D.
Carey Price
Bobrovsky or not, the Flyers could use Price. He's more seasoned than the rookie Russian (as they look to contend now) and it wouldn't hurt his skills to practice against the shooters he has most trouble with.
Impact of this result
Both teams at this point will shrug off a loss quite easily. Both teams are just about due. The value of winning in Montreal may be greater due to the playoff hangover and the feeling that the Habs have won against the lesser crowd so far (I don't agree with the latter). The impact of a win for Philly may be the firming up of an Achilles heel for the Montrealers, depending on the result.
Monday, May 24, 2010
The Karma Initiative
Last night the finale of Lost dominated the airwaves as recaps, interviews and the show itself were aired for nearly 6 hours. If the theme of the lengthy series was being lost (either in body or soul) then the ending, if it were a self-contained movie might be called Found.
One of the favourite devices of the writers of the TV program was to bring back long since "deceased" characters to resolve a plot line or move the story along. As the main protagonists all attempted to move to where they needed to be, these forgotten friends often appeared to help them along. Setting the whole thing in motion was Charlie, and then finishing the job were some cameos from Rose and even Shannon.
The Canadiens look set to dominate the airwaves in this house tonight. What, with recap videos, interviews and the game itself, it all seems a little familiar. Like the ABC moneyspinner, the Canadiens are seeking a resolution. Lots of things they once held are now lost. Their fans hope some may be found.
Habs fans hear ad nauseum how lucky they've been to beat Washington and Pittsburgh. Cammalleri has been shooting over 20%, Gionta at nearly 13%. Their goalscorers have been lucky. And Halak, maintaining a save percentage of over 0.930 after a season at only 0.926 – well he had to come crashing to earth.
Perhaps they have. Turn around and hear Philadelphia's wonderful system creating a team worthy of moving forward. No out of whack stats there...
While Cammalleri and Halak have done their best Jack and Sawyer impressions, the dwindling cast of contributors might need more help. Lost for some time has been Benoit Pouliot. Once the man to mark, he hasn't been that man since early March. And the goalscoring of others has been AWOL too. Andrei Kostitsyn (who Brunet reminds us about every shift) hasn't scored since an April hat trick. Gomez's goals even more distant. And you can add Plekanec to the mix. If you've lost count that's 2/3 of the top lines. Add Metropolit to the mix, a 10 goalscorer on the PP and 16 overall, as he has 0 in the playoffs (as long a stretch as 1/4 of a season). And you might as well think about Hamrlik, goal-less, and Darche too.
There's not a 50 goal-man in there, but there are a few 20 goal threats. And while 20 goal men will have 60 scoreless games in a season, and are not at all unfamiliar with 18 game slumps, the thing about them is they do score 20 goals. Sooner or later, one of these players will bounce one in off Ryan Parent or score a goal with an ankle. Sooner or later, their line change will be cut short by an unlucky Flyers bounce to spring a breakaway for the Habs – one on which they actually score.
If this series were long enough (80 games, say), I'd even expect all these things to happen. The interesting thing here is that time is running out. Will the Canadiens, lie the writers of Lost be able to resolve their season. Will karma, like the writers of Lost call on the Shannons of the team to move the plot along.
We'll see.
Or at least, that's what I hear.
Perhaps a team that made the playoffs on the back of a terrible second half and a shootout, and the Conference final due to a heroic turn of karma should be careful what they wish for.
Perhaps a guy that plays on the very edge of the rules and looks to all but the NHL disciplinary committee to step on the ice to end careers sometimes shouldn't count his chickens before they've hatched. Or perhaps be wary of calling others cheats, as he did the Bell Centre staff just the other day.
After all, who in the hell do you think you are? A superstar? Well right you are...
One of the favourite devices of the writers of the TV program was to bring back long since "deceased" characters to resolve a plot line or move the story along. As the main protagonists all attempted to move to where they needed to be, these forgotten friends often appeared to help them along. Setting the whole thing in motion was Charlie, and then finishing the job were some cameos from Rose and even Shannon.
The Canadiens look set to dominate the airwaves in this house tonight. What, with recap videos, interviews and the game itself, it all seems a little familiar. Like the ABC moneyspinner, the Canadiens are seeking a resolution. Lots of things they once held are now lost. Their fans hope some may be found.
Habs fans hear ad nauseum how lucky they've been to beat Washington and Pittsburgh. Cammalleri has been shooting over 20%, Gionta at nearly 13%. Their goalscorers have been lucky. And Halak, maintaining a save percentage of over 0.930 after a season at only 0.926 – well he had to come crashing to earth.
Perhaps they have. Turn around and hear Philadelphia's wonderful system creating a team worthy of moving forward. No out of whack stats there...
While Cammalleri and Halak have done their best Jack and Sawyer impressions, the dwindling cast of contributors might need more help. Lost for some time has been Benoit Pouliot. Once the man to mark, he hasn't been that man since early March. And the goalscoring of others has been AWOL too. Andrei Kostitsyn (who Brunet reminds us about every shift) hasn't scored since an April hat trick. Gomez's goals even more distant. And you can add Plekanec to the mix. If you've lost count that's 2/3 of the top lines. Add Metropolit to the mix, a 10 goalscorer on the PP and 16 overall, as he has 0 in the playoffs (as long a stretch as 1/4 of a season). And you might as well think about Hamrlik, goal-less, and Darche too.
There's not a 50 goal-man in there, but there are a few 20 goal threats. And while 20 goal men will have 60 scoreless games in a season, and are not at all unfamiliar with 18 game slumps, the thing about them is they do score 20 goals. Sooner or later, one of these players will bounce one in off Ryan Parent or score a goal with an ankle. Sooner or later, their line change will be cut short by an unlucky Flyers bounce to spring a breakaway for the Habs – one on which they actually score.
If this series were long enough (80 games, say), I'd even expect all these things to happen. The interesting thing here is that time is running out. Will the Canadiens, lie the writers of Lost be able to resolve their season. Will karma, like the writers of Lost call on the Shannons of the team to move the plot along.
We'll see.
Karma sometimes comes back to you too at some point
Or at least, that's what I hear.
Perhaps a team that made the playoffs on the back of a terrible second half and a shootout, and the Conference final due to a heroic turn of karma should be careful what they wish for.
Perhaps a guy that plays on the very edge of the rules and looks to all but the NHL disciplinary committee to step on the ice to end careers sometimes shouldn't count his chickens before they've hatched. Or perhaps be wary of calling others cheats, as he did the Bell Centre staff just the other day.
After all, who in the hell do you think you are? A superstar? Well right you are...
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Habs v. Flyers
Hope You Enjoyed Your Day Off Hockey
The last few nights have been luxurious. I haven't even played a second, haven't had to block one of 320 shots, and I appreciated a rest from the playoff onslaught. The Montreal fans I met and shared drinks with last night all felt the same. Some time off was welcome, a weekend without two hockey games a chance to remember real life.
I can only imagine that it was 100 times better for the players. Grab some time at home, see the kids, watch a movie, skip the media for a day or two.
Back to the grindstone today though.
Last night, I encountered a lot of trepidation for this upcoming series. Many times, I was asked the same question: "Which team would I have preferred for the Canadiens opponent?"
Each time, I answered the same way: "The team that lost".
A playoff series is a trying for any team. A 7-game series is a true test of any team's mettle. In my humble opinion, any team that can beat the same opponent 4 times in such a short span deserves to at least receive the credit they deserve for that win.
Coming into this series, both Montreal and Philadelphia are getting less than value for what they have done till now. Though Boston may have collapsed, it was Philly sticking with the task and staying out of the box that paved the way to victory. Forgotten, already in the shadow of their historic comeback is they beat many peoples' number one Eastern team (the Devils) very handily with a makeshift goaltending team. Montreal too has been questioned. Beating Pittsburgh the way they did still not worthy enough to earn them credit for their Washington victory.
But it doesn't matter. New Jersey, Boston, Washington and Pittsburgh are behind. Montreal and Philadelphia are worthy contenders for the Eastern crown because they are standing. Even if we can't quite explain how or why.
As I look forward and try to predict a series outcome, I find it difficult. The series till now offer little guidance. Philly has shown the ability to overcome trapping with goaltending, but that doesn't make them stand out from Washington or Pittsburgh as opponents. Montreal has pounced on rickety defences for timely scoring, but haven't yet had need, real need to make Plan Bs on attack.
The season series isn't much help either. 2-2 all told. Philly boosters look to February's back-to-back to say Montreal is outclassed, but conveniently overlook Game 4, the playoff clinching (in retrospect) 1-0 shutout from Halak.
It's an interesting series, and far from predictable. Let's consider the matchups:
Goaltending
Montreal has Halak. So far the best goalie in the playoffs, one of the best in the season. Has won in pressure games, has stoned Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby and Backstrom.
Philadelphia had a charmed run from Boucher, but now must rely on Michael Leighton. It was Boucher that won the shootout to attain the playoffs and overcame Parise and Kovalchuk. Leighton so far has been great, but one wonders if the anemia of Boston's attack, and overcoming Satan and Recchi (in 2010, not 1998) means a little less than what Halak has put forward.
My edge here goes to Montreal. Anyone who has ever written off a goalie (ahem) will know that the edge is often les than it seems.
Defence
Montreal has has allowed so many shots that stats bashers are having fits. The fact it is systematic troubles some even more. Still, letting a goalie see shots and clearing rebounds has been the priority since Game 5 in Washington and it's been taken on board as the priority. Gill has been an obstruction machine while the whistles are away, and should still be. Gorges, Spacek and co. also pretty good at what they do.
Philadelphia has been impressive in this regard. Against NJ, the corps allowed only a single ES goal against in their 4 wins. Pronger's name gets mentioned a lot, but Montreal mustn't overlook Timonen who drew the big assignments two years ago and blanketed Koivu to little acclaim.
Even with a Markov return, Philly has the edge here. Their lack of penalties against Boston shows why building around obstructers like Pronger, Carle, Coburn and Timonen works if you can make the playoffs on a shootout. Though I think there's something to Martin's use of his staff on D, I can't shake the feeling I'd like those bigger bodies when the whistles are buried.
Forwards
Montreal has 2.5 lines spread over three lines for scoring. Gionta, Cammalleri and Kostitsyn are real threats, while Gomez, Plekanec and Lapierre have found ways to get things done. The defensive play of the forwards is top notch, and shouldn't be forgotten.
Philly has shooters and star power. Richards is a big-game player. Briere and Gagne are earning their money and the supporting cast have goals in them.
Without Jeff Carter and Ian Laperriere in the lineup, the Flyers depth is tested. The match-up is close. If Pouliot ever awoke, this would be a Montreal edge. However, even as a staunch supporter, I've stopped waiting for that. The same could be said for Philly with a return from injury or a new scorer emerging. Until then, this is a push.
By tally that's even in my mind. My thought is that these two teams, both winners in 5 precipice games so far (if you include making the playoffs) aren't here to make up numbers.
Though I'd love to relish a Canadiens victory over a weekend off from hockey watching duties in a couple of weeks, both teams behaviours so far point to a pitched battle.
On a final note, I'd like to offer a word to the know-it-alls who grace the panel TV shows. The idea that this series is all for naught, and that SJ and Chicago are playing for the Cup starting this week is insulting. It's insulting to the players, as it is to we who watch. While it's true that both Montreal and Philly will both be underdogs because of points accumulated, the reporters would do well to remember that both Eastern outfits were among their precious predictions for Cup glory merely 18 months ago. Some picked Philly this fall.
I have learned a valuable lesson about the playoffs again this year from a certain Hal Gill. The lesson is that the regular season might as well be filed under completely irrelevant come May. The players who succeed in piling up wins in winter months are not the same players who make up series winners necessarily. Those same reporters, currently falling over in adoration of Toews and Thornton shouldn't forget this either.
Champions have to be made somewhere. 7 and 8 may be meeting for the Prince of Wales trophy, but it was not from luck alone, nor does previous luck determine future outcomes. Making the Stanley Cup final will be a formidable achievement for one of these teams. Don't think either would be satisfied at that.
Go Habs Go.
I can only imagine that it was 100 times better for the players. Grab some time at home, see the kids, watch a movie, skip the media for a day or two.
Back to the grindstone today though.
Last night, I encountered a lot of trepidation for this upcoming series. Many times, I was asked the same question: "Which team would I have preferred for the Canadiens opponent?"
Each time, I answered the same way: "The team that lost".
A playoff series is a trying for any team. A 7-game series is a true test of any team's mettle. In my humble opinion, any team that can beat the same opponent 4 times in such a short span deserves to at least receive the credit they deserve for that win.
Coming into this series, both Montreal and Philadelphia are getting less than value for what they have done till now. Though Boston may have collapsed, it was Philly sticking with the task and staying out of the box that paved the way to victory. Forgotten, already in the shadow of their historic comeback is they beat many peoples' number one Eastern team (the Devils) very handily with a makeshift goaltending team. Montreal too has been questioned. Beating Pittsburgh the way they did still not worthy enough to earn them credit for their Washington victory.
But it doesn't matter. New Jersey, Boston, Washington and Pittsburgh are behind. Montreal and Philadelphia are worthy contenders for the Eastern crown because they are standing. Even if we can't quite explain how or why.
As I look forward and try to predict a series outcome, I find it difficult. The series till now offer little guidance. Philly has shown the ability to overcome trapping with goaltending, but that doesn't make them stand out from Washington or Pittsburgh as opponents. Montreal has pounced on rickety defences for timely scoring, but haven't yet had need, real need to make Plan Bs on attack.
The season series isn't much help either. 2-2 all told. Philly boosters look to February's back-to-back to say Montreal is outclassed, but conveniently overlook Game 4, the playoff clinching (in retrospect) 1-0 shutout from Halak.
It's an interesting series, and far from predictable. Let's consider the matchups:
Goaltending
Montreal has Halak. So far the best goalie in the playoffs, one of the best in the season. Has won in pressure games, has stoned Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby and Backstrom.
Philadelphia had a charmed run from Boucher, but now must rely on Michael Leighton. It was Boucher that won the shootout to attain the playoffs and overcame Parise and Kovalchuk. Leighton so far has been great, but one wonders if the anemia of Boston's attack, and overcoming Satan and Recchi (in 2010, not 1998) means a little less than what Halak has put forward.
My edge here goes to Montreal. Anyone who has ever written off a goalie (ahem) will know that the edge is often les than it seems.
Defence
Montreal has has allowed so many shots that stats bashers are having fits. The fact it is systematic troubles some even more. Still, letting a goalie see shots and clearing rebounds has been the priority since Game 5 in Washington and it's been taken on board as the priority. Gill has been an obstruction machine while the whistles are away, and should still be. Gorges, Spacek and co. also pretty good at what they do.
Philadelphia has been impressive in this regard. Against NJ, the corps allowed only a single ES goal against in their 4 wins. Pronger's name gets mentioned a lot, but Montreal mustn't overlook Timonen who drew the big assignments two years ago and blanketed Koivu to little acclaim.
Even with a Markov return, Philly has the edge here. Their lack of penalties against Boston shows why building around obstructers like Pronger, Carle, Coburn and Timonen works if you can make the playoffs on a shootout. Though I think there's something to Martin's use of his staff on D, I can't shake the feeling I'd like those bigger bodies when the whistles are buried.
Forwards
Montreal has 2.5 lines spread over three lines for scoring. Gionta, Cammalleri and Kostitsyn are real threats, while Gomez, Plekanec and Lapierre have found ways to get things done. The defensive play of the forwards is top notch, and shouldn't be forgotten.
Philly has shooters and star power. Richards is a big-game player. Briere and Gagne are earning their money and the supporting cast have goals in them.
Without Jeff Carter and Ian Laperriere in the lineup, the Flyers depth is tested. The match-up is close. If Pouliot ever awoke, this would be a Montreal edge. However, even as a staunch supporter, I've stopped waiting for that. The same could be said for Philly with a return from injury or a new scorer emerging. Until then, this is a push.
By tally that's even in my mind. My thought is that these two teams, both winners in 5 precipice games so far (if you include making the playoffs) aren't here to make up numbers.
Though I'd love to relish a Canadiens victory over a weekend off from hockey watching duties in a couple of weeks, both teams behaviours so far point to a pitched battle.
On a final note, I'd like to offer a word to the know-it-alls who grace the panel TV shows. The idea that this series is all for naught, and that SJ and Chicago are playing for the Cup starting this week is insulting. It's insulting to the players, as it is to we who watch. While it's true that both Montreal and Philly will both be underdogs because of points accumulated, the reporters would do well to remember that both Eastern outfits were among their precious predictions for Cup glory merely 18 months ago. Some picked Philly this fall.
I have learned a valuable lesson about the playoffs again this year from a certain Hal Gill. The lesson is that the regular season might as well be filed under completely irrelevant come May. The players who succeed in piling up wins in winter months are not the same players who make up series winners necessarily. Those same reporters, currently falling over in adoration of Toews and Thornton shouldn't forget this either.
Champions have to be made somewhere. 7 and 8 may be meeting for the Prince of Wales trophy, but it was not from luck alone, nor does previous luck determine future outcomes. Making the Stanley Cup final will be a formidable achievement for one of these teams. Don't think either would be satisfied at that.
Go Habs Go.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Flyers The Victims
Are We, In Fact, The Dirtier Team?
Flyers The Victims
Are We, In Fact, The Dirtier Team?
Whether we'll ever be able to agree with Flyers fans or not is unclear.
They revel in hits like this:
But turn around and revile hits like this:
Personally, I don't think either type of hit is so inherently beautiful or useful in hockey that it could not be sacrificed for the sake of less serious injuries. I could step into my Habs-fan bias, as some Flyers fans are capapble of doing when they watch Mike Richards, and admire Kovalev, but I don't find his play as a bruising defenceman a very becoming part of his game.
That's why I tend to agree with Simon Gagne on the first count: that Kovalev should have been penalized (and probably even suspended) for the hit he laid on Simon on Saturday night – regardless of his name, suspension history or anything else.
Apparently it was reviewed and deemed OK by the league, and Flyers GM (notably):
I do take issue with the Flyers (and their faithful) crying to the principal again, just like last spring (from Tim Panaccio):
Their ridiculous "poor us" complex makes me laugh. Mike Richards alone has enough dirty hits to fill a hard full of video. Besides, they are much more disciplined this season than last, they haven't been getting more suspensions than anyone else.
That victim nonsense cost us some early calls last spring, and I hope the NHL doesn't bite the same bait from the poor poor Flyers again now, even if they have fans with the best invented rumours around.
So, are the Habs then a dirty team?
I think they've shown they're capable of underhandedness and plays most would not be proud of (Sergei on Grabovski, for instance). I think they're dirtier than the most doting of fans would admit. They are no angels, my friends.
But the team is a lot less dirty than most teams (Phoenix) and probably less dirty than Philly – even with their revamp.
They revel in hits like this:
But turn around and revile hits like this:
Personally, I don't think either type of hit is so inherently beautiful or useful in hockey that it could not be sacrificed for the sake of less serious injuries. I could step into my Habs-fan bias, as some Flyers fans are capapble of doing when they watch Mike Richards, and admire Kovalev, but I don't find his play as a bruising defenceman a very becoming part of his game.
That's why I tend to agree with Simon Gagne on the first count: that Kovalev should have been penalized (and probably even suspended) for the hit he laid on Simon on Saturday night – regardless of his name, suspension history or anything else.
Apparently it was reviewed and deemed OK by the league, and Flyers GM (notably):
"I think he said it was a little bit late, but it was one of those things," Holmgren said. "And because of the player - it's Kovalev, he's not that kind of player - and in this case, he doesn't have time to react one way or the other.
"It was not an elbow," Holmgren said. "I have a lot of trouble calling that a head shot."
I do take issue with the Flyers (and their faithful) crying to the principal again, just like last spring (from Tim Panaccio):
"I suggested to Gagne that if a Flyer had hit Saku Koivu with a head shot ... it would "THE" story in Oh Canada and splashed all over TSN, HNIC, etc. until justice was served.
To which Gagne replied, that had a Flyer done it, he'd be looking at "a 10-game suspension."
Their ridiculous "poor us" complex makes me laugh. Mike Richards alone has enough dirty hits to fill a hard full of video. Besides, they are much more disciplined this season than last, they haven't been getting more suspensions than anyone else.
That victim nonsense cost us some early calls last spring, and I hope the NHL doesn't bite the same bait from the poor poor Flyers again now, even if they have fans with the best invented rumours around.
So, are the Habs then a dirty team?
I think they've shown they're capable of underhandedness and plays most would not be proud of (Sergei on Grabovski, for instance). I think they're dirtier than the most doting of fans would admit. They are no angels, my friends.
But the team is a lot less dirty than most teams (Phoenix) and probably less dirty than Philly – even with their revamp.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Flyers Flop: Impostors Outed
Vengeance futile:
The Philadelphia Flyers and their ridiculous playoff marketing are out of the playoff
Flyers reporter Chuck Gormley, who forgot to revise his playoff report after the victory vs. the Habs, had this to say this morning:
Having ousted the Canadiens on the backs of two or three solid performers and a bit of fortune, the Flyers earned Gormley's accolades. But then they proceeded to turn around and throw up a brick against the favourite Penguins.
Hugely satisfying (and dissatisfying at once) to the Canadiens fan is to watch the very players who played playoff heroes two weeks ago outed for the impostors they are. I wouldn't say it brings me much comfort that Biron started letting in goals again or that Umberger returned to 13-goal form, but for posterity have a look at what we could have seen:
Umberger 0.20 goals per game vs. the Penguins
A return to close to his 0.18 goals per game of the regular season. The anomalous 1.60 goals per game against the Habs was just fortuitous timing after all.
Biron .876 save percentage
No more breakaway game savers here. He let in good goals, bad goals, powerplay goals even. It wasn't a return to normal (far worse), but anyone who purported he was a playoff calibre starter is seeing Cloutiers.
While the Flyers fans should be and are happy about going from 15th to runner-up in the East, the players, managers and reporters need to have a think about what happened in the last 5 games. There was this:
And this:
And then the pot calling the kettle black:
Pretty rich for a team that made the second round on a non-goal, scored on every meaningful shot they took in the second round and then faced a far superior opponent and proved just how superior they were. All quotes neglect to recognise that the Flyers are out because the Penguins are so so much better than their competition. This was not a bad luck semi-final. You don't lose a playoff round in 5 games on a 6-0 rout if you're unlucky. This was a mismatch through and through.
Canadiens management should take note as well. While our fans and management can take consolation in the fact that our team at least played as well if not better than their opponents before they went out – the same feeling would not pervade had the opponent been the Penguins.
However, Flyers fans should not take offence. Sure they were impostors for the Eastern conference championship, but I have a feeling 13 other teams would have looked the same this spring.
Hossa a Penguin or not, the teams in the East will need to do better to make the finals in upcoming seasons.
The Philadelphia Flyers and their ridiculous playoff marketing are out of the playoff
Flyers reporter Chuck Gormley, who forgot to revise his playoff report after the victory vs. the Habs, had this to say this morning:
In the process, the Flyers found a natural-born leader in Mike Richards, who justified his 12-year, $69 million contract by playing every shift in the playoffs as if it was his last.
In Marty Biron, they found a goaltender in his prime who could raise his level of play in the postseason.
In Jeff Carter and R.J. Umberger, they found two budding stars capable of producing clutch goals when the spotlight was at its hottest.
Having ousted the Canadiens on the backs of two or three solid performers and a bit of fortune, the Flyers earned Gormley's accolades. But then they proceeded to turn around and throw up a brick against the favourite Penguins.
Hugely satisfying (and dissatisfying at once) to the Canadiens fan is to watch the very players who played playoff heroes two weeks ago outed for the impostors they are. I wouldn't say it brings me much comfort that Biron started letting in goals again or that Umberger returned to 13-goal form, but for posterity have a look at what we could have seen:
Umberger 0.20 goals per game vs. the Penguins
A return to close to his 0.18 goals per game of the regular season. The anomalous 1.60 goals per game against the Habs was just fortuitous timing after all.
Biron .876 save percentage
No more breakaway game savers here. He let in good goals, bad goals, powerplay goals even. It wasn't a return to normal (far worse), but anyone who purported he was a playoff calibre starter is seeing Cloutiers.
While the Flyers fans should be and are happy about going from 15th to runner-up in the East, the players, managers and reporters need to have a think about what happened in the last 5 games. There was this:
It was a harsh reality for a close-knit group of guys that was only seven wins away from bringing Philadelphia its first championship since 1983.
And this:
They just ran into a hot team. Pittsburgh hasn’t lost in regulation at Mellon Arena since February, around the same time when they last lost back-to-back games.
And then the pot calling the kettle black:
“I think we really had a chance to beat these guys,” Scott Hartnell said. “The chances they had were because of our mistakes.”
Pretty rich for a team that made the second round on a non-goal, scored on every meaningful shot they took in the second round and then faced a far superior opponent and proved just how superior they were. All quotes neglect to recognise that the Flyers are out because the Penguins are so so much better than their competition. This was not a bad luck semi-final. You don't lose a playoff round in 5 games on a 6-0 rout if you're unlucky. This was a mismatch through and through.
Canadiens management should take note as well. While our fans and management can take consolation in the fact that our team at least played as well if not better than their opponents before they went out – the same feeling would not pervade had the opponent been the Penguins.
However, Flyers fans should not take offence. Sure they were impostors for the Eastern conference championship, but I have a feeling 13 other teams would have looked the same this spring.
Hossa a Penguin or not, the teams in the East will need to do better to make the finals in upcoming seasons.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Game #2-2: Flyers Dome
Big win for the Flyers last night. So why is it so hard to identify the men responsible? One of those nights, I guess.
Dome hockey team
They're going into the last minute with these 6 against the Montreal Canadiens (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...
Forwards
Jeff Carter
– I've always been a bit indifferent to Jeff Carter when I've seen him. But I will say this, on the Flyers, he is looking like a pretty classy guy. That's saying next to nothing of course. Every half decent play from the Flyers last night was a result of something Jeff Carter did. And, fault Carey Price all you want, but if Plekanec was shooting like Carter did on his goal, we'd have won - a very good corner pick from a non-angle
R J Umberger
– if I'm indifferent about Carter, I would have to take that even farther for Umberger. I won't - that's how little I care. His 2-goal performance was memorable because though he scored the game breakers, he did virtually nothing else. An indication of how badly the Flyers forwards, in particular were outplayed, is his presence in the dome despite my disdain
Mike Richards
– he played quite poorly and got away with it - a perfect representative for his team. He played dirty and got away with it - again a perfect representative of his team. Maybe he's too busy thinking about his promised $80000 a game
Defencemen
Kimmo Timonen
- played well. He played the most of any Flyer, and actually looked good while doing it. He was not on the ice for any of the Canadiens goals, though he was on for plenty of chances. Mind you, he was on the ice for 3 Flyers goals as well. He has not had the impact Chara had in the previous series, but has been the best Flyer nonetheless
Randy Jones
- in the same way Hamrlik deserves a lot of credit for playing with Brisebois, so Jones with Hatcher. Hatcher can do what he does, but then it will take him a fair amount of time to get to where he needs to be next. Randy Jones, a bit more fleet of foot has helped this pairing to be an effective one. The two of them together are the reason we're all asking what has happened to Plekanec. A +2 performance with some decent stats to go with, get him in the dome
Goaltender
Marin Biron
- I was harsh to put Nittymaki in. Biron plays a solid game. While some of his spectacular saves in fact turn out to be misses or posts, he did make a couple of enormously important glove saves to stop the Canadiens comeback in its tracks (heard of the glove hand Carey? you can move it too). What e did best last night though was to make the easy saves. Every time Steve Begin, Mathieu Dandenault or some other non-goalscoring forward took a shot, it was a Canadiens turnover. This was thanks to solid positioning and preparedness from Biron. He has shown, it takes patience to get a goal past him - something the Canadiens do not seem to have at the moment. The first star for his team for certain
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Meet the Flyers: Key Pillars
So important are the playoffs that they warrant a special look at the special players on the other team for once. Anyone who has watched a game or two of the Bruins series will know plenty about the Habs, though you still may want to check our original playoff preview here: Tobalev's Habs Preview.
However after a bigger dose than anyone wanted of the Black and Gold, we now have a fresh opponent to tangle with. Without further ado:
The Philadelphia Flyers.
To begin, I thought I'd remind everyone of a few key thoughts:
1) Just like the Bruins, the regular season Flyers could not figure out the Habs
2) Unlike the Bruins, the Flyers had an inferior record against the rest of the league (only by 1 point, though)
3) The Flyers are hot in OT, coming off a series-ending OT win and another earlier in the series – they were prone, however, to losing in OT in the regular season (3-5) with a losing record in shootouts too (3-6)
So, on the whole these are not a superior version of the Bruins, but an equal, or quite possibly inferior. Who knows what would have happened if we had played them 8 times, like we did the Bruins – we are about to find out.
I have sent requests to a few Flyers fans for insight, but must go ahead before I get it. I will be sure to include any if and when I receive it.
The last line – Martin Biron
Canadian Junior goaltender of the year in 1995, Martin Biron was only the second goalie selected in his draft year (following Hartford's selection of JS Giguere). This immediately raises questions about Biron and his pedigree. Firstly, what happened? Well, as it turned out, Biron's charmed season with Beauport was to come to a crashing halt when Jose Theodore and his Olympiques handled them with ease in the QMJHL playoffs that year. Giguere, in contrast, didn't even make the playoffs, but was a talent on a poor and struggling expansion Halifax team.
The reason this history is important is because that playoff defeat seemed to derail this decade-earlier, French Canadian Carey Price super prospect of his day. To say he is prone to derailment would be false. the fact is he was, always was with Buffalo. This would be the reason he couldn't wrestle a starting job from Noronen, and why as soon as Buffalo acquired an American standard bearer for their franchise, Biron was set free. But things have been different for Biron this season: he has won a starting job for the first time, he won 30+ games for the second time and his best save percentage ever – an elite save percentage for the first time in 6 years. In other words, at the tender age of 30, Martin Biron has finally become what he was projected to be 13 years earlier: a legitimate NHL starter.
His stats, while not staggering, have been good, especially when you consider defencemen 3-6 on the Flyers on any given night: 2.59 GAA, 0.918 Save% with 5 shutouts. And while many will post his abysmal stats against Montreal this season, he has generally been a thorn in Montreal's side of the years, with a save percentage a good level above his usual play (not helped by this year's game, of course).
He owes some of this success to the innate ability of all Quebecers to come to Montreal and play on another plane. While we can't discount the possibility that he'll tap this resource for the series, history has shown that homeboys mostly find that harder to do over a series than they do for a single game.
If it's chinks in the armour that you're looking for, it's worth considering that, in 62 starts, there were 17 occasions in the regular season that Biron let in 4 or more goals. Also, note that he let in 4+ twice in the last 7-game series. So while he shuts out opponents with some frequency, and generally stops shots at an elite level, he is not immune to bad nights like Carey had in games 5 and 6. Finally, consider that tonight Martin will be suiting up for only the 8th time for NHL playoff hockey, just like his decade-his-junior counterpart.
All in all, I would expect good solid goaltending from Martin. He gives the Flyers a good chance to succeed (as is the case for all the goalies at this stage of the competition).
The Game Maker – Kimmo Timonen
One question I asked my blogging colleagues from the Flyers camp was:
Who do you think has played the biggest role in the Flyers turnaround this year?
While I haven't received their responses, I am beginning to form my own picture of events through the research I have done. My conclusion is that Timonen is a man in the running.
His career stats page has more lines on it than I have seen in years. In the lockout year alone, he played for Finland twice and 3 different professional teams. I guess the man likes his hockey.
Timonen is no newcomer to the NHL. Since he made his first NHL roster in 1998, 5 years after being drafted in the 10th round, he has made an impact to his teams and the league. He has been one of the most consistent offensive defencemen around since 2002. Including this past season, he has 275 points over 6 seasons (an average of 45 a year). That is what made his trade and release from the Nashville Predators all the more remarkable, especially considering their need for salary just to make league minimum at the outset of the summer. The Flyers got themselves a real steal.
To the Flyers, Timonen has provided a steady NHL defenceman with legitimate potential to contribute up front. In other words, he is their Andrei Markov. And just like Markov, he has been charged with bringing up the main defensive prospect from the organisation in Braydon Coburn.
Coburn, not unlike Komisarek when alongside Markov, has benefited greatly from the wily Finn on his flank. Coburn, in the space of a year has gone from frustrating ne'er do well and throw away prospect (for Alexei Zhitnik!!) to pillar of steadiness on the Flyers top pairing. And, it is herein where lies Timonen's value to the team. While his own number's have fluctuated to an ebb by his standards (8 goals and 36 assists), his protege's contribution has soared.
Canadiens fans will surely be getting used to seeing Kimmo Timonen night in, night out, since his coach deploys him against all the top players in the league (read Kovalev). If Kovalev is hoping for an easy ride like he got against the Flyers in the regular season, perhaps he should cast an eye on the highlights of the just-completed Washington series. This is what his coach had to say bout him:
The Game Breaker – Daniel Briere
Daniel Briere is on fire!
That could be my headline for a player I bill as the game breaker after he scores 6 playoff goals in 7 games with 5 assists to accompany them. Of course, the cynic in me want to write this headline:
Daniel Briere likes playing against AHL-calibre defences
That sort of headline would be grossly unfair to a player who is once again stepping up his play once the playoffs roll around for his team. This playoffs, his goals have been difference makers – with 4 out of 6 of them either tying up the game or putting the Flyers into the lead. In addition, his previous two playoff years, Briere has given point-per-game reliability – in fact, if you cast a glance at his career stats, you will see that he is PPG for the career in the playoffs. His kind of clutch play will be of utmost importance to the Flyers who would have to look hard to find another pure offensive talent on their roster.
In addition to having a great start to the playoffs, Briere actually had a pretty good season. If you accept that his contract-winning season of 95 points was an anomaly for the little man, you could see this season (his second highest goal and point totals ever) as quite a success. In trying to sell him short (yet again), I discovered that Daniel (or Danny as the Flyers homepage calls him) scored just as many points and goals against playoff-bound opposition as non-playoff teams. In doing so (and combined with his playoff excellence), he has once again shown his eager critics that he is a player to be reckoned with. You would only have to ask the Sabres to understand his full importance to his team.
As a game breaker, Danny is ruthless. He attacks with cunning and with speed. And unlike previous game breaker Marc Savard, Briere can do it all. His passes are top class and hiss goalscoring totals are impressive. As I mentioned earlier, he has a penchant for scoring important goals.
The Canadiens will no doubt put a lot of effort into creating a containment strategy for Briere. Luckily for us, we have some of the tools to do that. Especially with home ice, we can look to Komisarek and Markov every time Briere darts into the zone.
Of course, no preview of Briere would be complete without some mention of his Montreal snub just last summer. As we know, Gainey had at least approached the Briere camp with a stratospheric offer by Canadiens standards. For one reason or another (money), Briere turned it down (money). Some say his wife asked him not to play in Montreal (she wanted more money after tax), while others suggested he asked too much of the of the coach in line commitments. While the Canadiens would probably be a better team right now with 30-year old Briere on the team, there is no doubt in my mind that the offer rumoured to be for 7 years would have saddled the Canadiens with a player who would lose his value by year 6 and 7. While I am relieved we didn't sign Briere for the rumoured terms, I would be a fool to say i don't envy a French Canadian scorer who saves his best for the playoffs.
The Great Hope – Mike Richards
How many times did we have to hear about Mike Richards and Jeff carter being drafted by the Flyers as the major coup of the 2003 entry draft (ahem, Andrei Kostitsyn)? The fact is, it was a deep draft and the Flyers needed to get over that. The people who passed on Carter at 11 all got a better player in my estimation. Mike Richards was a good late round pick, but so were Corey Perry and Patrice Beregeron both picked later. Oddly, the Flyers have made a game of picking up whoever they can from the 2003 draft – with Coburn and Kukkonen both featuring on the big team.
As for Mike Richards, he has had a breakout season. Or rather, he had a breakout first three months. In his first 35 games, Mike looked like a real challenger for the scoring title, with 18 goals and 43 points. An injury helped to mask his lack of production which fell to 32 points (10 goals) over his next 38 games. I bring this up mainly because these first three months made Mike a very rich and famous man and rolled the Flyers fate for the forseeable future up with his own. That's because on December 13, he was handed a 12-year contract for $69 million with a maximum salary of $7.6 million for the 2013-2014 season. Quite definitely the most ridiculous contract in NHL history.
What the Flyers have now and what they think they paid for are two completely different entities. The Flyers, through their fixation on the year 2003, have committed to 12 years of Richards based on what they tab leadership. It is worth having a look at what they saw, as it could factor into the series at some point.
Basically, what the Flyers saw was the leader of every team he had ever been on. He captained the Kitchener Rangers to the Memorial Cup,and Canada to the World Junior Championship, while playing a huge role in Philadelphia's Calder Cup of 2005. This is what the Canadiens must also be wary of – a player with the extra gear. A clutch performer, so to speak. That said, I till think they could have signed him for less...
As if to live up to his best-case billing, he played very well in the first round. He posted 7 points in 7 games, playing in many important situations for his team. He'll look to continue making vital contributions to his team's cause in the second round.
If the Canadiens are to take heart, it is in the fact that Mike Richards was in play when they faced the Flyers before and they still managed to win. In addition, he was a minus player against the habs, just as he was against Washington this spring. He plays a straightforward game and gets his breaks from superior effort not otherworldly skills – as long as his effort is matched, the battle can be kept in balance.
So you see, there is more to the Flyers than their dirty play and skill-free bangers. How much more beyond these 4 is difficult to say, especially with Simon Gagne and Mike Knuble missing from their ideal line-up card. If the Canadiens can put complacency and doubt behind them and try to set the agenda in the majority of these games, then the talent math goes in their favour. Furthermore, the Flyers aren't as likely to use the same wait and see gameplan the Bruins did. When they try to open up, the Canadiens might just love the seams they begin to see.
However after a bigger dose than anyone wanted of the Black and Gold, we now have a fresh opponent to tangle with. Without further ado:
The Philadelphia Flyers.
To begin, I thought I'd remind everyone of a few key thoughts:
1) Just like the Bruins, the regular season Flyers could not figure out the Habs
2) Unlike the Bruins, the Flyers had an inferior record against the rest of the league (only by 1 point, though)
3) The Flyers are hot in OT, coming off a series-ending OT win and another earlier in the series – they were prone, however, to losing in OT in the regular season (3-5) with a losing record in shootouts too (3-6)
So, on the whole these are not a superior version of the Bruins, but an equal, or quite possibly inferior. Who knows what would have happened if we had played them 8 times, like we did the Bruins – we are about to find out.
I have sent requests to a few Flyers fans for insight, but must go ahead before I get it. I will be sure to include any if and when I receive it.
The last line – Martin Biron
Canadian Junior goaltender of the year in 1995, Martin Biron was only the second goalie selected in his draft year (following Hartford's selection of JS Giguere). This immediately raises questions about Biron and his pedigree. Firstly, what happened? Well, as it turned out, Biron's charmed season with Beauport was to come to a crashing halt when Jose Theodore and his Olympiques handled them with ease in the QMJHL playoffs that year. Giguere, in contrast, didn't even make the playoffs, but was a talent on a poor and struggling expansion Halifax team.
The reason this history is important is because that playoff defeat seemed to derail this decade-earlier, French Canadian Carey Price super prospect of his day. To say he is prone to derailment would be false. the fact is he was, always was with Buffalo. This would be the reason he couldn't wrestle a starting job from Noronen, and why as soon as Buffalo acquired an American standard bearer for their franchise, Biron was set free. But things have been different for Biron this season: he has won a starting job for the first time, he won 30+ games for the second time and his best save percentage ever – an elite save percentage for the first time in 6 years. In other words, at the tender age of 30, Martin Biron has finally become what he was projected to be 13 years earlier: a legitimate NHL starter.
His stats, while not staggering, have been good, especially when you consider defencemen 3-6 on the Flyers on any given night: 2.59 GAA, 0.918 Save% with 5 shutouts. And while many will post his abysmal stats against Montreal this season, he has generally been a thorn in Montreal's side of the years, with a save percentage a good level above his usual play (not helped by this year's game, of course).
He owes some of this success to the innate ability of all Quebecers to come to Montreal and play on another plane. While we can't discount the possibility that he'll tap this resource for the series, history has shown that homeboys mostly find that harder to do over a series than they do for a single game.
If it's chinks in the armour that you're looking for, it's worth considering that, in 62 starts, there were 17 occasions in the regular season that Biron let in 4 or more goals. Also, note that he let in 4+ twice in the last 7-game series. So while he shuts out opponents with some frequency, and generally stops shots at an elite level, he is not immune to bad nights like Carey had in games 5 and 6. Finally, consider that tonight Martin will be suiting up for only the 8th time for NHL playoff hockey, just like his decade-his-junior counterpart.
All in all, I would expect good solid goaltending from Martin. He gives the Flyers a good chance to succeed (as is the case for all the goalies at this stage of the competition).
The Game Maker – Kimmo Timonen
One question I asked my blogging colleagues from the Flyers camp was:
Who do you think has played the biggest role in the Flyers turnaround this year?
While I haven't received their responses, I am beginning to form my own picture of events through the research I have done. My conclusion is that Timonen is a man in the running.
His career stats page has more lines on it than I have seen in years. In the lockout year alone, he played for Finland twice and 3 different professional teams. I guess the man likes his hockey.
Timonen is no newcomer to the NHL. Since he made his first NHL roster in 1998, 5 years after being drafted in the 10th round, he has made an impact to his teams and the league. He has been one of the most consistent offensive defencemen around since 2002. Including this past season, he has 275 points over 6 seasons (an average of 45 a year). That is what made his trade and release from the Nashville Predators all the more remarkable, especially considering their need for salary just to make league minimum at the outset of the summer. The Flyers got themselves a real steal.
To the Flyers, Timonen has provided a steady NHL defenceman with legitimate potential to contribute up front. In other words, he is their Andrei Markov. And just like Markov, he has been charged with bringing up the main defensive prospect from the organisation in Braydon Coburn.
Coburn, not unlike Komisarek when alongside Markov, has benefited greatly from the wily Finn on his flank. Coburn, in the space of a year has gone from frustrating ne'er do well and throw away prospect (for Alexei Zhitnik!!) to pillar of steadiness on the Flyers top pairing. And, it is herein where lies Timonen's value to the team. While his own number's have fluctuated to an ebb by his standards (8 goals and 36 assists), his protege's contribution has soared.
Canadiens fans will surely be getting used to seeing Kimmo Timonen night in, night out, since his coach deploys him against all the top players in the league (read Kovalev). If Kovalev is hoping for an easy ride like he got against the Flyers in the regular season, perhaps he should cast an eye on the highlights of the just-completed Washington series. This is what his coach had to say bout him:
“He was unbelievable,” coach John Stevens said after the Flyers' 3-2 overtime win over the Caps in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals . “He looked like he could play all night out there (he actually played 28 minutes and change). He's playing against the guy (Derian) Hatcher said is the hardest guy (Ovechkin) he's ever had to play against.
“Kimmo embraced that challenge, he wanted it. Not only that but he contributes to the power play, penalty killing, all situations. He really stepped up for us. He wanted to be the guy and he brought (Braydon) Coburn along with him.”
The Game Breaker – Daniel Briere
Daniel Briere is on fire!
That could be my headline for a player I bill as the game breaker after he scores 6 playoff goals in 7 games with 5 assists to accompany them. Of course, the cynic in me want to write this headline:
Daniel Briere likes playing against AHL-calibre defences
That sort of headline would be grossly unfair to a player who is once again stepping up his play once the playoffs roll around for his team. This playoffs, his goals have been difference makers – with 4 out of 6 of them either tying up the game or putting the Flyers into the lead. In addition, his previous two playoff years, Briere has given point-per-game reliability – in fact, if you cast a glance at his career stats, you will see that he is PPG for the career in the playoffs. His kind of clutch play will be of utmost importance to the Flyers who would have to look hard to find another pure offensive talent on their roster.
In addition to having a great start to the playoffs, Briere actually had a pretty good season. If you accept that his contract-winning season of 95 points was an anomaly for the little man, you could see this season (his second highest goal and point totals ever) as quite a success. In trying to sell him short (yet again), I discovered that Daniel (or Danny as the Flyers homepage calls him) scored just as many points and goals against playoff-bound opposition as non-playoff teams. In doing so (and combined with his playoff excellence), he has once again shown his eager critics that he is a player to be reckoned with. You would only have to ask the Sabres to understand his full importance to his team.
As a game breaker, Danny is ruthless. He attacks with cunning and with speed. And unlike previous game breaker Marc Savard, Briere can do it all. His passes are top class and hiss goalscoring totals are impressive. As I mentioned earlier, he has a penchant for scoring important goals.
The Canadiens will no doubt put a lot of effort into creating a containment strategy for Briere. Luckily for us, we have some of the tools to do that. Especially with home ice, we can look to Komisarek and Markov every time Briere darts into the zone.
Of course, no preview of Briere would be complete without some mention of his Montreal snub just last summer. As we know, Gainey had at least approached the Briere camp with a stratospheric offer by Canadiens standards. For one reason or another (money), Briere turned it down (money). Some say his wife asked him not to play in Montreal (she wanted more money after tax), while others suggested he asked too much of the of the coach in line commitments. While the Canadiens would probably be a better team right now with 30-year old Briere on the team, there is no doubt in my mind that the offer rumoured to be for 7 years would have saddled the Canadiens with a player who would lose his value by year 6 and 7. While I am relieved we didn't sign Briere for the rumoured terms, I would be a fool to say i don't envy a French Canadian scorer who saves his best for the playoffs.
The Great Hope – Mike Richards
How many times did we have to hear about Mike Richards and Jeff carter being drafted by the Flyers as the major coup of the 2003 entry draft (ahem, Andrei Kostitsyn)? The fact is, it was a deep draft and the Flyers needed to get over that. The people who passed on Carter at 11 all got a better player in my estimation. Mike Richards was a good late round pick, but so were Corey Perry and Patrice Beregeron both picked later. Oddly, the Flyers have made a game of picking up whoever they can from the 2003 draft – with Coburn and Kukkonen both featuring on the big team.
As for Mike Richards, he has had a breakout season. Or rather, he had a breakout first three months. In his first 35 games, Mike looked like a real challenger for the scoring title, with 18 goals and 43 points. An injury helped to mask his lack of production which fell to 32 points (10 goals) over his next 38 games. I bring this up mainly because these first three months made Mike a very rich and famous man and rolled the Flyers fate for the forseeable future up with his own. That's because on December 13, he was handed a 12-year contract for $69 million with a maximum salary of $7.6 million for the 2013-2014 season. Quite definitely the most ridiculous contract in NHL history.
What the Flyers have now and what they think they paid for are two completely different entities. The Flyers, through their fixation on the year 2003, have committed to 12 years of Richards based on what they tab leadership. It is worth having a look at what they saw, as it could factor into the series at some point.
Basically, what the Flyers saw was the leader of every team he had ever been on. He captained the Kitchener Rangers to the Memorial Cup,and Canada to the World Junior Championship, while playing a huge role in Philadelphia's Calder Cup of 2005. This is what the Canadiens must also be wary of – a player with the extra gear. A clutch performer, so to speak. That said, I till think they could have signed him for less...
As if to live up to his best-case billing, he played very well in the first round. He posted 7 points in 7 games, playing in many important situations for his team. He'll look to continue making vital contributions to his team's cause in the second round.
If the Canadiens are to take heart, it is in the fact that Mike Richards was in play when they faced the Flyers before and they still managed to win. In addition, he was a minus player against the habs, just as he was against Washington this spring. He plays a straightforward game and gets his breaks from superior effort not otherworldly skills – as long as his effort is matched, the battle can be kept in balance.
So you see, there is more to the Flyers than their dirty play and skill-free bangers. How much more beyond these 4 is difficult to say, especially with Simon Gagne and Mike Knuble missing from their ideal line-up card. If the Canadiens can put complacency and doubt behind them and try to set the agenda in the majority of these games, then the talent math goes in their favour. Furthermore, the Flyers aren't as likely to use the same wait and see gameplan the Bruins did. When they try to open up, the Canadiens might just love the seams they begin to see.
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