Canadiens Season Preview: Outgoing Defencemen

Finished with the forwards, it's time to move on to the important parts of the team. First up the defenders.

As I mentioned with the forward group, evaluating this year's team requires a bit of a retrospective glance. As such, I've put together a brief piece all about the outgoing defencemen from the 2008-09 season.

I should note that I am using the same pie charts to pick apart the defencemen as I did for the forwards (the legend can be found here). However, in the place of breakdowns of goals and assists and things by time, PPG and GWG, I decided to take a look at some statistics I cooked up from more raw numbers at NHL.com that better reflect the skills I would like my defencemen to aspire to (Hits/60, Blocked shots/60, Giveaways/60, Takeaways/60 and the difference between those last two). Hope you enjoy.


Mathieu Schneider

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (ATL/MTL)	67	9	23	32	-12	3.03	5.03	1.75	2.09	+0.34	64
07-08 (ANA)	65	12	27	39	+22	3.23	2.32	1.41	1.45	+0.04	50
06-07 (DET)	68	11	41	52	+12	2.92	3.07	2.32	0.67	-1.65	66

Even-strength profile
	Above average offense at even strength Below average defence at even strength Among bottom 20% for GA at even strength Neutral CORSI: +0.2

Legend

Losing Schneider is a funny feeling. Although the statistics do tell me that he played for the Canadiens last season, it was such a short stint, at such a weird time, that it almost seems hard to believe. He will certainly be missed as an offensive producer (his 30+ points season in, season out) for his age is impressive.

The other part of Schneider's game, the defence, is something that is harder to assess. While he had more takeaways than giveaways last season, and is consistently respectable in that regard, he nevertheless stood on the ice for nearly 3 goals for every 60 minutes of play (or a goal a game). The likely story is that Mathieu gets caught up the ice, just like many a forward, while trying to maintain his impressive offensive out put.

If Schneider weren't 40 years old, I feel that he would definitely be back. Instead, Gainey opted for a similar player with a few years to spare in Spacek. At the very least, Schneider taught Gainey that he needed a player like him.


Mike Komisarek

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	66	2	9	11	E	8.42	9.13	3.92	0.93	-3.00	121
07-08 (MTL)	75	4	13	17	+9	10.06	10.47	2.57	1.51	-1.06	101
06-07 (MTL)	82	4	15	19	+7	9.42	5.58	3.46	1.67	-1.79	96

Even-strength profile
	Decent offense at even strength Average GA at even strength Near league worst chances allowed at even strength Negative CORSI: -7.3

Legend

I've been giving Komisarek some flak recently, and I've been feeling some resistance from his fans. But you know what? This off-season, I have the stats on my side. Komisarek had a truly awful 2008-09 campaign, and it's a wonder he got a raise, let alone two offers for him to be paid among the defensive elite of the league.

On the surface, much of Komi's stats were quite rosy. After all, he was in the league leaders for hits and blocked shots again. Though he didn't contribute offensively, his +/- was even. What's my problem, right? Well, it's when you delve a little that you find the truth. To start with, the basic stat we've been trotting out (the Corsi number, which shows total chances for minus those against) is negative, and not hovering around zero either.

His giveaway numbers from last season were atrocious, as well. In all he gave away the puck 89 times, which made for nearly 4 giveaways for every 60 minutes on the ice – the worst among all defencemen with more than 15 games of play. As if to show just how bad a season he was having, he did not make up for his giveaways at all. His paltry 21 takeaways amounted to less than one every three games for him. The difference between the two was again league worst for players with more than 15 games. Maybe I am wrong, but I expect the occasional positive turnover to come from a hit he makes, to see hundreds of hits result in so few takeaways confirms what I'd been saying all along – he started merely hitting for the sake of it.

Perhaps the most telling thing is how he made his partner into a worse player at both ends. Markov with any other partner (mostly Gorges) last year was a 2.8 GF/60 and a 2.3 GA/60 player. With Mike, his numbers suffered significantly to make him a 2.4 GF/60 and 2.7 GA/60 player (a negative plus/minus to boot).

Well that was last year. A bad one indeed. But players have come back from worse, haven't they? And, Mike did have a good season the year before. His hits and blocked shots stats reaching impressive double digits in average.

Can he be replaced? Well the 2008-09 Komisarek does not need replacing, thank you. His influence on the team (certainly on the ice) was not something to cling to. If you mean the 2007-08 Komisarek, then it's harder. I certainly think that in bringing Paul Mara who steadily occupies the middle ground of Komisarek's wild fluctuation should help us see off our memories of #8.


Francis Bouillon

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	54	5	4	9	-7	8.22	3.71	2.16	1.01	-1.15	53
07-08 (MTL)	74	2	6	8	+9	7.85	5.42	1.68	1.03	-0.65	61
06-07 (MTL)	62	3	11	14	-10	7.82	4.81	3.43	1.32	-2.11	52

Even-strength profile
	Average to below average offensive output at even strength Below average defence at even strength Negative CORSI: -2.8

Legend

While others were grabbing the headlines for their futility, Francis was turning in a quietly terrible season last year as well. 3.00 GA/60 is never something you want to see from any player, let alone one who spent significant time as a 4th/5th defenceman on the team. And his negative plus/minus and Corsi did not offer any excuses for the little man.

While we should definitely miss his spirit and his hitting, I think that for this time, Frank's trip to Nashville from Montreal should be permanent. I think that Bouillon, despite that nice blip in 2007-08, is indeed going in to the twilight of his career. No longer can he win the foot races, no longer does he surprise with his hip checks. Replacing Frank emotionally may be hard, but the play he was bringing to the team? O'Byrne should handle it.


Patrice Brisebois

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	62	5	13	18	-3	2.74	4.20	3.28	0.85	-2.43	19
07-08 (MTL)	43	3	8	11	-2	2.40	3.32	3.07	1.24	-1.82	26
06-07 (COL)	37	1	10	11	-5	2.34	3.28	2.06	1.41	-0.65	22

Even-strength profile
	Average to above average offense at even strength Average to below average defence at even strength Negative CORSI: -3.5

Legend

Ding, dong, the witch... There won't be too much gloating this time, because look where it got us before. When it comes to Brisebois, I have learned never to underestimate his deft ability to convince Bob Gainey he is not a waste of cap space.

To be fair to Brisebois, the last two seasons he actually played like a semi-adequste 6th/7th defenceman. His offensive contributions were above average and his defensive blunders were strategically limited through selective deployment. He can be proud of his reclamation in Montreal too, where he proved upon his comeback that he actually was in the group of 170-210 best defencemen in the NHL. It was a conclusion we would not have accepted back in 2007.

Even so, replacing him is something I will relish as a fan because whereas Patrice's best gift to us was not to make a huge mistake on a shift, we now get a chance to look at players who aspire to more. With all those defencemen in the pipeline, another season of Patrice would have been unforgivable.


Doug Janik

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (DAL/MTL)	15	0	1	1	-3	3.10	6.20	2.33	1.94	-0.39	10
07-08 (TB)	61	1	3	4	-3	3.48	4.64	1.79	0.84	-0.95	45

Doug Janik, we hardly knew thee. Even putting Doug Janik in here was a last minute decision. as you can see, I didn't bother making him a chart.

While Janik was not really a Hab for more than a few days, he was a contributor. IN his final act, Doug helped the Habs by having his rights act as a trade piece in the Scott Gomez deal. I'm not sure who asked for that, Gainey or Sather, but it'll be on the trivia for years to come if the Alaskan were ever to lead this team past the second round.

Janik, for his part is actually quite a good player. As you can see from his stats he runs a tighter ship than say Komisarek (though with less hits). A depth defender he is though, and he's already moved onto his next stop in Detroit. We wish him luck.



Unlike the departing forwards, the departing defencemen don't have that whole "rip the heart out of the team" feel to them. Yes, they were part of the upheaval, but 2 were never really here, 2 were past their due date and the other – well he was offered the same money and left, so sod him.

In the end, nothing that was lost from the back end of the 2008-09 team was irreplaceable. In fact, many of the subtractions in and of themselves are positive. And, considering the signings, it looks like Gainey has upgraded here. I'll let you in on what we got in the upcoming days from the statistical side of things.




Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier

Gainey Gets His Centre

Like the rest of you, I had a bit of trouble getting to grips with this trade at first. I mean, at first glance, it goes against conventional wisdom – and on several levels.

It is at once adding an overpaid player and a long-term contract in a time where flexibility is being touted everywhere. It also puts in place a #1 centre who is no bigger than Saku Koivu, thereby either blocking, or certainly reducing the chances of installing someone really big. Finally, I suppose the timing. It does really smack of a move that could have been made after Gainey tried his luck with the UFAs.

A good night's sleep has me thinking a little differently this morning.


Trade reports were misleading

The first we heard of the trade was Higgins for Gomez. Fair enough. But later it came out that it was Higgins, McDonagh, Valentenko and Janik for Gomez and others.

Psychologically this was bruising. Higgins for Gomez at first sounds great, though there's anxiety about the salary. But McDonagh as a throw-in reeks of Rejean Houle, and Valentenko to top it off.

My rest has given me new perspective. First of all, I think realistically this trade was McDonagh for Gomez, or at best McDonagh and Higgins. For their part Janik and Valentenko were already nothing to me. They were never to play for the Canadiens, so trade chips for the league, they might as well be. But just switching Higgins to the throw-in, from McDonagh puts it all in a new light for me. It's hot prospect for top centre. Fine. Throw in a winger who can be replaced by almost any number of the draft picks we've made from the last 5 years (since he's no longer a talented top-liner).


Trade in full

Perspective renewed, I looked again. I even bothered to check what the other two guys have done and why Gainey might have been interested in them instead of just fretting at losing a Russian I liked.

There's no doubt from anyone here that the best player in the trade is Scott Gomez. If Sam Pollock was evaluating the trade, he might say that Montreal won on the basis of that fact alone. Luckily for Sam he didn't have to weigh up for salary eaten.

Seriously though, Montreal did alright here. Gomez is a top-line player, and though Pyatt and Busto haven't an NHL game between them, there's reason enough to believe at least one of them will one day.

Tom Pyatt for his part wasn't a standout in his draft year so fell. But despite his small stature, he managed to cobble an excellent 40+ goal season in the OHL 2 years ago to go with 2 WJC gold medals for Canada. Two team Canada appearances alone show there's something to him. I wouldn't be that surprised if he replaces Higgins outright – after all what's 11 goals and 12 assists?

Michael Busto is a lower leaguer, so written off in a flash. But was he selected or was he a throw away? The simple fact that he played for the Kootenay Ice in 2006-07 tells me that he was hand-picked by the Habs, simply because they will have watched that team quite a bit scouting Ben Maxwell and Ryan Russell. In some ways, I see this then as a bonus draft pick. He's a big enough defenceman who could conceivably one day play in the league. It's as good as Janik, and realistically better than Valentenko. Not a bad upgrade.

The Canadiens for their part gave up less than our initial emotional outpouring suggests, I think. I mean look at it from the Rangers point of view. Sure, they're happy about ditching a $7.3 million salary so they can waste all the cap room by the end of today on another Roszival, but take the salary aspect away and it's a different picture.

First, they get Ryan McDonagh who at this point can't be called anything more than a prospect. No offense to Ryan, but how does one expect him to be the next Chris Chelios when it's debatable whether he's even a top 3 defender on his own team, let alone the league. And it's not like Wisconsin were the top team in the league. Add to that the fact that Markov is a fixture in Montreal, Gorges has progressed and Weber and Subban have easily leapfrogged him in the pecking order, McDonagh was not value enough to fetch a Gomez.

Chris Higgins of course is a known quantity for Canadiens fans. But this season, I think was a little closer to the truth than Chris might like to admit. To say we were surprised when he notched 22 goals as a rookie would be an understatement. Nothing in his past suggested he could or would do that. He solidified his reputation as a twenty goal threat the next two seasons, with 23 and 27, but to go to thirty? It's a stretch. Ironically, the only way Higgins might do that is with a supreme passing talent like Gomez, since he needs open nets on most nights, usually 3 or 4 per goal. Seeing as his unreliability with the finish probably meant his career path now reads 3rd/4th liner, where's the harm in losing him? After all, as we know, 3rd/4th liners are truly the only commodity that one can pick up with any success in this league. Losing Higgins for the Habs means creating a place that a Hamilton player can fill almost right away. For the Rangers, picking up Higgins means they get a lot of energy and a bit of hope.

Finally, Valentenko and Janik. Valentenko is likely in Russia for good now, since he's too good in his own mind to take a tryout at this point, yet not good enough in the eyes of NHL execs to get guaranteed money. Why the Rangers wanted him, I'm not sure. one to watch. Janik, the forgotten man, was never going to play in Montreal. He failed a tryout where all he had to do was outplay O'Byrne.


Salary balance

I can't convince you or myself that we're better off with salary today than we were yesterday. The Gomez salary is horrendous. It is, however, about par for the course for top players who've received a contract in the past 3 seasons. It is worse than say Sundin, Richards, Briere, Richards and any other number of top centres.

I will also suggest that Gainey is reshuffling his salary so that players are paid in the old-fashioned top-heavy way. Getting rid of Higgins (the potentially $3 million 3rd liner), Bouillon and Dandenault ($2 million spares) is the indication for me. We should know more by the weekend.

For another thing, Gainey must surely know by today that salary flexibility isn't all it's cracked up to be. Nor will it be next year, in all likelihood. I wouldn't say you want to fill your cap up with overpayment, but it seems having loads to spend on July 1 is a false promise, to say the least. Might as well gamble with a player instead of gambling with bargaining power again.


Saku Koivu

The hardest aspect of this trade to take is the chance that Saku Koivu might have been replaced with a younger and heavier version. Gomez, from all accounts is a bit of a Koivu with his tenacity, his playoff performance and his incredible passing vision.

Many fans are visibly upset that we have gone for the Koivu "upgrade". But unlike me, it's not because they are sad to lose Saku (RDS poll showed that).

I think many fans presumed that the small skillful centre era was coming to an end. I think most fans deemed that era to be a failure. Personally, I'm glad Gainey is not so closed-minded as that. And, frankly, I think blaming Koivu for the lack of Stanley Cup parades even over the last 5 years is wholly unfair. In fact, if there were one thing I'd take from these last ten years of Koivu, it's that the whole big centre myth is a bit bogus. Someone competitive, given wingers with enough talent to bury a chance (see not Higgins) is what you need. After all it was Briere/Richards to beat the Canadiens one year and Savard/Krejci the next. Datsyuk's been to the Stanley Cup final in both years, Joe Thornton never got a sniff.

So sadness then? Koivu's gone?

Well he ain't gone yet. And, depending on the results of today's efforts, he may not be gone for this season either. I've seen others who agree that Gomez, Koivu, Plekanec would be nice. I think so too. I also think the possibility of future trades is there either way too.


Obviously I had a good sleep. As I can see from comments all around, many of you didn't. I wish you a better day and a sleep just like mine after the fireworks have gone off this evening so that you can start to see something positive in supporting this team (with Gomez at the helm) for the next 9+ months.

Happy Canada Day all.

Game #79Montreal Loses Tight One to Ottawa

The Canadiens Game in Review

Date: Monday April 6th, 2009
Opponent: Ottawa Senators
Venue: Bell Centre, Montreal, QC

Team Stripes

Final Score: 2-3 - Loss

Habs starting goalie: Jaroslav Halak (L)
Opposition starting goalie: Alex Auld (W)

Habs goalscorers: Alexei Kovalev, Roman Hamrlik
Opposition goalscorers: Chris Campoli, Dany Heatley (2)

Play of the game
The play you're straining to see on the press catwalk monitor...

Halak made some great saves, but Kovalev's goal was too nice to ignore. 2 minutes after the Sens broke the ice Koivu's line was looking to score. It was Saku who fed Kovy the puck on the right side that got this quick play started. Alex then placed an incredible shot up and over Auld; another goal that demonstrated his incredible accuracy.

Game puck
Trophies are for the end of the year, play well in the game, you get a lovely puck...

Alexei Kovalev
Kovy had a very strong game against a team he seems to like playing against. He could have easily scored more than once, but was stoned by the post. He worked very well on the PP, and towards the end of the game with the extra man, but he couldn't work miracles. The point-men are really the two main elements of any good PP and so we are now left with two huge holes.



Dome hockey team
We're going into the last minute with these 6 (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...

Forwards

Alexei Kovalev
Kovy netted his 25th in this one which is quite something considering where he sat a few weeks ago and remembering the 19 games without a goal earlier in the year. He played a very solid game and even without the goal was a dominant player. His 5 shots on goal led all players on either team as Auld had to be very sharp on a few occasions to beat him.

Saku Koivu
The captain played another great game tonight which was highlighted by some very strong board work. I really liked how he was winning battles and pucks in the offensive zone as it meant his two talented wingers could wait for pucks rather than dig themselves. He was strong in both ends, was +1 and won the majority of his draws.

Christopher Higgins
Higgins did ever so well to get in alone for another short-handed breakaway. He drew a penalty-shot, but unfortunately missed, but at least the effort was there to be given that chance. That leads me to two questions - when was the last time (or is this the first) that the Habs have had penalty-shots in 3 straight games and shouldn't the penalty-shot have been taken into an empty net as that is what he was robbed of shooting into? Aside from that play Chris played a very strong game which involved good physical work and a few decent chances.

Defencemen

Patrice Brisebois
Tonight there weren't too many of our defencemen that didn't look ridiculous at one point or another, Brisebois, surprisingly, was one of them. He didn't take a stupid penalty, he didn't cough the puck up for a goal and he didn't look ridiculous on any goals. To boot he had a couple of good shots on net and one that ended up being an assist on Hamrlik's goal. Maybe it was because he was playing with our only other competent defender, but for a change, Patrice didn't disappoint.

Roman Hamrlik
The new leader of our defence really played like it tonight. He was the only one who actually elevated his game in the way that was needed. The other four defencemen looked bad at times and I believe were a big reason why we lost. Roman chipped in with a goal tonight and became the 5th different defenceman to score in our past 3 games. Gorges and Komi both played more than Hammer tonight, but he was also up at 25 minutes. I think that he could handle some more ice and more responsibility as he has years of experience to lean on.

Goaltender

Jarolsav Halak
Halak didn't play his strongest game tonight, but he did make a few fantastic saves. Heatley managed to score twice, both times on shots that could have been stopped, but at least Dany is a true scorer. I think that considering the defence we put on the ice tonight 3 goals against is quite modest. The shots were down, but Ottawa did have some quality chances. Carey will play tomorrow night and it will be interesting to see which Price will show up. Will the dominant kid clinch us a playoff spot or will the Price from February make us sweat a little more?



Eye-Openers
In this new section we are going to try and shed some light on certain plays or events that would otherwise go unnoticed

Laraque proved, once again, tonight why he is so useless. After not intimidating anyone on Saturday before or after our two best defencemen were injured I can't say I was expecting much tonight from the most undeserving millionaire in the world. Tonight he let Ruutu run around like the little rat he is and did nothing about it. He then spoke to Neil, rather than fight him, and that had little effect. I can't believe we are sitting a 20-30 goal man so this guy can play. We say he is there to intimidate people, but after 79 games I don't think his grimace has scared anyone. He was said to be our protector, but all I see is an increase in injuries this season (many from hits and such) with little to no retribution. He is also proclaimed to be the best fighter in the league! Ha, have you seen this guy fight? It is a joke. He is either too scared of hurting someone he is better than or he just isn't better than anyone at all. All that I see are glorified wrestling matches which end with 2, maybe 3 punches thrown. It could be argued that Plekanec and the Kostitsyns are also doing nothing right now for us, but when a game is on the line and we need a goal I have a feeling that those players (50+ goals combined) would stand a better chance than old 0-goal.

Overall Comments

The Habs started this game very tentatively which is the way I felt sitting at home too. Losing two top players like that at once will make anyone associated with the team very nervous. They didn't play like a team that desperately needed points to make the playoffs, instead we put that type of play aside for our pre-March style. A game of back and forth nothingness ended when Ottawa scored and all of a sudden we woke up. The Habs then scored 2 goals and then, realizing they didn't have the best defence in the world, made the worst choice by playing defensively. Playing defensively means letting the other team have the puck and seeing if the other team can score. That style of play is not recommended when the key players are Alfredsson, Heatley and Spezza for them and O'Byrne, Janik and Komisarek for us. Once we started trying to score again it was too little too late as the Sens already had the lead. Our time spent playing with no goalie was absolute chaos as our defencemen were unable to make quality passes, keep pucks in the offensive zone or breakout properly of our own. The loss of Markov and Schneider was evident tonight and that was at home against a non-playoff team with nothing to play for. It will take a serious team effort to not only get into the playoffs, but to then succeed in them.

Fingers Crossed

Markov and Schneider are both out of the lineup tonight.

Doug Janik has been recalled to replace the extra man, not AHL-scoring phenom Yannick Weber. The PP-powered resurgence will be tested with Hamrlik, Gorges and Brisebois at the point. Look for a different PP and a different game vs. Ottawa tonight.

Things you should know about Janik:

1) He is Don Lever's man
Don Lever was in the Buffalo organisation that drafted Janik from the University of Maine in 1999. He saw his first NHL training camps when Lever was there to evaluate. Don may have had a say in his acquisition, and he probably had something to say about this recall (i.e., Janik > anyone else)

2) The Canadiens scouts from yore will know him from their days scouting Ron Hainsey
They were on the same US Junior National team

3) He was a full-time NHLer until the demotion in Dallas this season

4) He wore #33 in Dallas this season and also earlier in his career in Buffalo

5) He's been helping the Bulldogs win without scoring
...and stay in the consolation prize for whatever passes for a Jennings trophy in the AHL

6) He's the 10th Doug in Montreal Canadiens history
You may remember some of the others...

7) He'll do for a game

8) And courtesy of Olivier: Janik has a following... http://dougjaniktabarnak.blogspot.com/