Carey Price After Game 1

I must confess, I went back and forth on Price in the dome last night. If I was choosing again, I'd have all the stats I went through this morning to sway me further.

Carey Price Recognized For Sensational Week

We've been waiting for Carey Price to step up and answer Jaroslav Halak for some time. When Jaro came in to the net, he usually left a window for the replaced starter. There were times when Carey answered, but it has rarely been as emphatic as this.

Now, a couple of weeks after Jaro Halak was setting the chatlines alight with his NHL recognized work in October, Carey has answered with a first star nod from the NHL.

There's not much I can say that will speak louder than the statistics, so I'll just lay some of those out for you.


This is what you know already. 3 wins, a shutout, and some pretty heady numbers.



Broken down by period, you can see his success in a different way. Last season, there were no shutouts, and not all that many shutout periods either. 7 shutout periods, including the pivotal three shutout third periods allowed his team to reel in the victories.



Finally, some extra stats from the stats that I keep kicking around. His profile by chances on net (scoring chances with misses and blocked shots removed). You can see it's still extremely heady numbers here. Even more so when you account for the fact that good in scoring chance world is in the 0.800's.

The other two stats show shots before a goal was allowed (SBG) and the save percentage based on that number (starting save percentage). It's difficult for goalies to come in and put up high numbers consistently right from the start of a game, 0.952 is just about as good as it gets.




All in all, a good week for Carey. He certainly headed off any challengers for the next Molson Cup, and will probably wrap up the season title any day now at this rate.

Losing That Game Was Critical For Price, Habs

I know I said I wouldn't pay attention to the score of that game the other night. Really, I don't care much about it all. It's just that as I try to fins anything to read about the Canadiens, all the usual sources have their thoughts dammed at the goaltending position.

Before the game, I took my own advice, as I said and made sure I didn't make silly extrapolations from a single game (or half game) in which players we won't even see were playing players we may never see again. Instead of watching the scoreline, I watched Pouliot, Leblanc, Maxwell and Tinordi. I couldn't help but notice Price, but to be honest he didn't do anything to surprise or shock.

Since the game, I have been thinking about Price, the boos, the media response and his teammates. I have come to a few conclusions on the whole thing:

1) This game was going to happen sooner or later

2) Better that it happen now, sooner rather than later

3) The fans were not doing anything unusual


We've had tiring discussion after tiring discussion about Price's apprenticeship to the NHL. Price is learning, we've admitted that. Let's not forget that. He's learning to play in the NHL and that means learning that NHLers can do things junior players can't. As things go, I'd like him to get his hard lessons in at the best possible times. If he has to learn about covering angles, puckhandling and gaining back composure in one game, it's far better than learning all that over 20 games.

This season, after a layoff of quite some time from playing in NHL games, Price was always going to have to be reminded of his weaknesses. Personally, I'm happy the game happened at the earliest possible juncture. I wasn't under any illusion that a summer of training would correct all ills, so better the young goalie (and his team) bring these working points up as early as possible so that they may be on the agenda for every practice from here on. Really, it's a positive thing. How could it not be? Because players who need to improve need to have what they need to improve firmly implanted when they sat out to train. I don't think those lessons could escape anyone after this debacle.


As for the fans, there are two issues here. The first is that they overreacted to the goings on in a preseason game. Second is that we shouldn't be surprised. We fans (and I think it's fair to include us all in this to some degree and not hold to snobbery) overreact to many things surrounding the Canadiens. Dare I say, most things. This game is barely less significant than opening month and those criticising the fans of yesterday are often among the group that talk in terms of being in or out of the playoffs in November. There's degrees of our madness, but don't think we're not all mad.

Anyway, no surprise in the reaction at all for me, or I think for anyone (although they feign their shock). But apart from being blase about this, I also think the chorus of boos could have a strangely positive effect. In fact, I think it already has.

Carey Price now remembers where he is again (not a rodeo ring) and that his rewards for hard work will be paid out at games (in rapturous sound or lack thereof). The team and coaches also see that they need to work hard. For they can talk about the need to protect Carey from their pathetic breakdowns until the cows come home, but at some point we need to see improvement there too. As the hunky-dory of scrimmage game reports flatter players playing against their own squad, they also need these reminders that they're all on the hook for mistakes with these fans. The team has responded at least in voice about this, and we can only hope they respond at some point in play.

One game into a preseason is a strange time to be writing a piece about a team regrouping, or so it would seem. But if regrouping means refocusing on the things that will bring better results, then I couldn't be happier to be writing this now so that in December I may not have to.

Habs Media Tells Us What They Really Think

Last week, the day that Carey Price signed his contract, there was a conference call. The media were invited to ask questions of the young netminder and Team 990 broadcast the thing live. Only in Montreal, I know.

The vast majority of the call was from a script. Same old questions and Carey's same old rehearsed answers. I tuned in on the dial, but I didn't really "tune in". A funny thing happened part way through, though - a new voice and some unexpected questions. Turns out a blogger got in on the call.

The first question he asked caught me off guard and so I didn't catch it all. It sounded largely like effusive praise. The second question, however, was the moment that made listening in worthwhile. Launy "The" Scwartz asked Price if he was working on anything specifically in the summer. Whether he was taking steps to improve his lateral movement and his glove hand (I had a chuckle at that point, bold question). It was interesting bacause for the first time on the call, Price hadn't got an answer ready-made on his tongue. He knew questions would come about Halak, about the contract, about striking and about his touring rodeo show. But someone questioning his glove hand? That was a poser.

Price sidestepped the answer, but the interest in the questions didn't end there..The mainstream media apparently took some offense to the questions. This article on AllHabs chronicles the whole thing, but here are a few choice quotes:

“I think it was embarrassing. It was a total fellatio festival. The guy is ridiculous. If he wants to talk to Price that way let him show up at an autograph signing.”
- Mike Boone

“The reporter/goalie/fan on Carey Price conf call was ridiculous. Carey u were unlucky, u have potential. Embarrassing and very sad.”
- Tony Marinaro

It also led to some general discussion on who should and who shouldn't be permitted to ask questions at these events. The general feeling I got from the AllHabs summary was that once again the mainstream guys just can't handle having keen amateurs stealing any airtime:

“A journalist around the Montreal Canadiens would come from being around the club, having a sense of what is going on in the room, and you’re able not only to hear the words that are being spoken but you’re able to interpret them a little bit and able to analyze them a little bit.”


This clearly re-sparked the debate around the blogger vs. mainstream media question in Montreal again.

AllHabs pointed out the terribly self-fulfilling definition of a journalis above. Only those allowed into the dressing room are journalists. And only those currently allowed into the room are allowed in. So, only the current gang are journalists. Never mind that others can do a good job of finiding stories from outside the room, never mind that the dressing room material is pure rehearsed garbage. The clique must stand.

In my experience, the media play friendly for a while but are quick to show their disdain when they are threatened. It's only natural of course, as they have the most to lose (their jobs). In the past the threatened mainstream has been downright nasty, and bigger blogs than this have been bullied by the crew for doing so little as linking stories.

Now I don't have to tell you why I think blogs are necessary and most times superior to mainstream material. For the subset of fans that crave to look deeper into happenings, stats, backgrounds and stories, the mainstream media just don't cut it. I started reading blogs because they took different angles and dealt with issues more interesting to fans like me. I started writing because I thought other like-minded folk would like more and different takes on the subject matter.

This story just call this whole thing to attention again. Did I want to know what Carey price felt about the media reports about him striking? Not really. Did I want to know what he'd been working on in the summer? Yes, I did.

The fact that it took a blogger to ask the question after a summer without a smidgen of news for these Habs beat reporters to write up tells a tale all itself. Sure, there were a few off-beat questions, but this is noth8ing new. The blogger still scored the gamewinner on this conference call. Some others continued to hit post after post.

Late August

"If you are not going to play with heart, stay home. We don’t need you here.”

These are thye words that Andrei Markov supposedly uttered to Carey Price after a particularly shattering loss in late January this past season.

Today is August 23rd and as I settle back into the usual rhythm after trading backpacking for backlighting for a few days, I hear echoes of the quote again.

When I left, I was near certain that a return home would be coincident with a morning spent reading about Carey Price's new contract with the MOntreal Canadiens. After all, Carey is the only player of consequence left to be signed and Montreal is the NHL outfit that he will play with this season. But instead of a torrent of opinion and salary cap implications, there was vacuum. Instead, the only news of Canadiens goatending was of Cedrick Desjardins being traded. The only new of Carey Price was from recent rodeo activity.

To me this is troubling. Not only because this thought-to-be simple contract negotiation drags into one more week, but also because of the stories being rustled about our young cowherd.

January, you know is not that long ago. And January was never the first time that our starting goalie's workout habits were called into question. In a league where players now busy themselves with more training over the summer months than the winter ones, I find it somewhat disconcerting that the player Markov would have identified 7 months ago as among the most in need of a solid summer of training is now playing on horses.

Now, a stray story about a hometown rodeo appearance is not evidence for indictment. (And on the bright side it endorses his natural athleticism, as winning as a rookie in this event can't be easy).

A rodeo event that took up a couple of evenings isn't cutting into training. He could still be doing drills day and night for all we know. My own concern is that Carey might not yet quite grasp that he needs to improve and that in order to improve he must set about doing the hard work.

This is by no means meant to single Carey out. All athletes need to improve from their pre-pro levels if they want to find sustained success. Patrick Roy may have waltzed to a Conn Smythe in his first attempt, but it was the honing of his technique and his work at improving that allowed him to win the most games in NHL history. Hasek was a talented out-of-leaguer, but he had to practice and practice upon his North American arrival to become the stopper he was.

I find it unlikely that even as easy-going a character as Price could miss this. I'm sure he's aware that work needs to be put in. Then my question is: when? The summer of 2008 was fishing, rodeo and fun at home, last summer too. Is this summer another rest from a long season?

Every player at this level got here through a passion for winning and bacause they made an early habit of doing just that. The passion for winning is within all high-level athletes, I'm sure. There's no concern there. None at all. The heart, the passion that I'm worried about (and perhaps Markov too) is the passion to make this sport of hockey the all.

If hockey was the all, would a player risk injury in the off-season? Would a player eschew the top-tier training that could be found in his new hometown or other bigger centres?


My holiday readin included a book by Gare Joyce about the world of NHL scouting. It deals comprehensively with young players and their roads to the NHL. In it, there are stories of all kinds, including those of players whose hearts never doted on the sport they excelled at. Players who ended up in hockey with eyes for football, golf, other pursuits.

I'd never really considered that Carey Price wasn't a hockey player through and through. I've been hard on him getting starts he needs to earn rather than inherit. I've been worried that he gets bored during games and wants to be part of the whole game.

The stories of other juniors, the lingering contract talks, the pursuits he clearly so loves (and can't talk enough about) in the summer. I'm wodering now.

Negotiating On Price: Opening Parry

The last Canadiens game was played more than 2 months ago now. As the sun set on the Canadiens season, there were questions everywhere, except it seemed in goal. In goal, Jaroslav Halak had been the undisputed star for the Canadiens, if not the league in the playoffs to that point, and Carey Price warmed the bench.

But the offseason has cast a new light on matters. Halak was traded, of course. But even after that lingering negotiations have led to looming questions. For a brief period on July 1, Robert Mayer was the highest ranked goalie on the Montreal payroll. He was to be bumped to NHL back-up in the depth chart by the signing of Alex Auld and later to a more sensible place as Gauthier retained Desjardins and Sanford. As Price’s contract talks drag on, the depth chart of today still has Mayer in Hamilton, with Auld and probably Desjardins in Montreal.

That situation is pure fantasy, though, as Carey Price must be as near a certainty to sign on as there ever was. But Auld, Desjardins, Sanford, Mayer. Some have said it’s not leverage for the goalie and his agent, fans who ponder their upcoming cable package might disagree.

Anyway, we put aside the possibility that Price will not be signed instead looking to the terms of the contract he will eventually sign. For fun, I thought of the negotiation as a mock arbitration setting (probably not that far from the truth) with each side presenting their arguments and counter-arguments.

For mock purposes, let’s assume that Carey Price’s team is indeed asking for the $3 million that HabsWorld comes up with in its uncited "report" (1 to 3 years). The Habs we’ll assume by the hold up are not into that, we’ll say they started at $1.7 million (2 to 4 years).

Carey Price camp opening arguments

1. Starting goalie money

The average goalie salary (cap hit) in the NHL is $2.51 million
The average among starters is $3.75 million
Removing entry level for starters gives $4.1 million

You want Carey to be a starting goalie in one of the biggest fanbases with some of the biggest revenue in the NHL. He shouldn’t be far below average.


2. Comparables

Carey Price (3 seasons)
Season: 2.77, 0.912
Career: 2.73, 0.912

Jonas Hiller (3 seasons) ¬ $4.5 million
Season: 2.73, 0.918

Jaroslav Halak (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.75 million
Career: 2.62, 0.919

Kari Lehtonen ¬ $3.55 million
Season: 2.81, 0.911
Career: 2.87, 0.912

Pekka Rinne (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.4 million
Season: 2.53, 0.911


Their average salaries going into the next contracts are $3.8 million, so the $3 million we ask for is very reasonable considering Carey’s closest peers.


3. Pedigree

Drafted 5th overall
CHL goaltender of the year
WJC winning goalie and tournament MVP
Calder Cup winning goalie and tournament MVP
NHL All-Rookie team
NHL All-Star Game


4. Save percentage

Save percentage is the only number that can be trusted among goalie statistics, as it is the only number that belongs to the goaltending performance alone. 0.912 this season and for his career are excellent at his age. It was a single tenth of a percent behind Roberto Luongo.


5. Alternatives

Having traded Halak, without Carey you would look to start the season with Alex Auld in goal and Cedrick Desjardins at back up. Carey offers a massive upgrade to that tandem, replacing the completely NHL-naïve Desjardins from the roster and providing a better start option than Auld.

The Real Goaltending Battle It's Halak And Price Vs. Caps, etc.

Who will play against Ovechkin tonight? Markov or Spacek?

Who will play the most minutes? Gomez or Plekanec?

Who will play on the PP? Pouliot or Metropolit?


All questions we could be asking. All questions we rarely ask. Instead we fixate on the question of who starts in goal for the 90th time this season.



Who’s playing the next shift?

The pursuit of the Stanley Cup is notoriously difficult – due to the physical nature of the game, the frequency of play and the sheer number of required victories.

No other major competition has such a conspiracy of factors. The World Cup, far more laden with pressure is at least less physically grueling. The NBA playoffs take the same format, but the sport of basketball is a different kettle of fish to hockey. The World Series is both shorter and incorporates more rest time. The Super Bowl spaces it games for recovery and hype.

It’s puzzling then that the same expectations are laid on by hockey fans as those of other pursuits. That one player will dominate every night, that one coach will have all the answers, and in this case that one goalie will carry all the load.

Starting this game is by no means a declaration that one goalie is better than the other or that one goalie will be favoured in contract negotiations over the other. What it comes down to for a goalie is, I think it’s time we as fans change our perspective here. The Habs’ pursuit, as over-reaching as it sounds this morning, is not to win this series, but rather to win the Stanley Cup. As such, why not start looking at it this way. Especially with regard to Halak or Price.

Instead of asking who the franchise goalie is, why not just ask: "Who will be playing the next shift?"

The goalies are no different from all skaters – everyone wants to play every minute that their body can bear. Like other skaters, they also want to win, and by their age know that winning takes not only skill, hard work and luck, but also the maturity to withdraw and let your teammates help.

While we’d never want either goalie to be happy about being withdrawn under the circumstances that Halak was the other day, we shouldn’t make this unhappiness into something it’s not. Halak is unhappy with himself, first and foremost, not the injustice of the universe. If Price starts tonight, Halak will not necessarily be eternally insulted and shun all future offers. If Halak starts, Price has enough know-how by now to understand that the decision is situationally based and not built to offend him.

There may be a time when goalie concerns about meeting time played and win bonuses cross their minds. In the Cup playoffs, when the prospect is to stay alive in this grueling competition, I think everyone understands that shifts will come and shifts will go. From all evidence, both goalies want to win and seem to be willing to contribute directly, or by sacrifice, to make that happen.


On that note, I don’t have much inkling as to what I’d do in Martin’s situation, which weapon I’d deploy. More than hearing one name or the other, my hope is that the decision is delivered well and explained to both eventual starter and back-up in terms of this 2-month competition. Like it or not, we need them both.

Some Quotes To Make Our Bias Look Pale

Last week, I responded to responded to a Price friendly article with a Price unfriendly response. Balance is what I was seeking. I forget that not everyone follows the same reading patterns as me.

The ensuing debate was interesting and educational for everyone. We all got to reflect a little bit on our own positions and the possibility of coming out of the trenches we have dug just a little.

Another week and it's more of the same from the Habsosphere. Rather than opine on this one inkblot more, I offer you two quotes to consider:

Jack Todd, Montreal Gazette:

"Just when we thought he was growing up, meanwhile, it turns out that Price, is aging like fine whine.

Price was caught again last week, dissing and moaning about his hard luck, the people who bother him in public, the lack of offensive support, the boo-birds at the Bell Centre.

This is Montreal. It's the NHL. Boos, bores and bad bounces go with the territory. If you can't take it, you belong in Nashville."

Ted Bird, CTV:

"Clearly, the numbers favor Halak, but numbers are for bean counters who don't understand or appreciate the intangibles that separate respectability from greatness.

Halak has been at least as much of a pleasant surprise as Price has been a disappointment, but there are reasons Price was drafted fifth overall in the first round in 2005, two years after Halak was taken in the 9th round, and the 22-year-old Price is still a more likely candidate to develop into a franchise goaltender than Halak is to sustain his excellent level of play over the long term."

Plenty to offend all the sensibilities of all parties there I think. Gotta love Montreal, they know how to keep that pot stirred.

Canadiens Recall Robert Mayer

RDS and others are reporting that the Habs have called up Swiss/Czech goaltender Robert Mayer to stand in for Jaroslav Halak in Canadiens practices this week.

It's not really Canadiens news as such, as Mayer is firmly 5th choice for the big team – as if they ever let it get to that point without trading. However, for the young man, it must be quite an exciting time.

Let's face it, though, this is the biggest Habs news of the past while. And it is more interesting given we haven't spoken about or glanced in Mayer's direction in months.


Who is Mayer?

Mayer is what he is – a depth prospect. He came to the organization as a signing rather than a draft pick following a fairly strong 2007-08 during which he played a decent back-up role on a strong Saint John SeaDogs team and backstopped Switzerland at the World Juniors. One has to think that he really got on Timmins and co.'s radar at the U18 Worlds in 2007, though, where he excelled in posting the top save percentage of his year for the tournament.

His stats don't scream elite prospect, but he did do enough to make the CHL top prospects game ahead of the 2008 draft where he ended up going unselected.

Hockey's future has Mayer as prospect #17 for the Habs, which is either a compliment to Mayer or an indictment of the depth the organization pretends to have. The good news is the reviewer for the site, despite panning Mayer generally, still has something to like in a glove hand and positioning (a rare combination?):

With solid positioning and a great glove hand, Mayer has the potential to be much better then what he has shown so far.

In any case, this is what it's reported to be, and not some prelude to Halak/Price being shipped. The Hamilton Bulldogs are winning and need their goalies, and the Montreal re-Habs need someone else to shoot on.

Robert Mayer, good luck and enjoy yourself...

Price/Halak: The Stats

By this point you probably don't me to point you in the direction of Eyes on the Prize. But in case you've missed it, do go there and check out the latest on Price vs. Halak.

It has something for everyone – those who like our last dome, and those who don't.

I am not goig to draw a conclusion from the piece here, as it may be a bigger article than that. I merely suggest going to have a look at the stats, and once you've done that Chris Boyle's take on Price/Halak.

Why Are Buffalo Where We Want To Be?

Take a look at the standings. Your Habs are in eighth position.

Montreal fans don't seem to do well with the prospect of an actual marathon race. They don't mind 82 games, but prefer to sprint out in front and coast home, if at all possible. All this jostling is fraying for the nerves.

So take another look at the standings. There are teams who've sprinted ahead for one reason or another, there are teams that provide their fans with a level of comfort about what will happen in the standings this season, about what will happen any given night.

One of those teams happens to be leading our division – the Buffalo Sabres.

This can't be right, can it? The Sabres? They haven't fired a GM in a decade. Heck, they haven't even fired a coach in a decade. They never get a high draft pick, they never sign big free agents and they often lose their own stars for what usually amounts to nothing.

The Sabres are ahead of us? The Sabres are where we want to be?


One has to ask: Why?

Last summer, the Sabres went the opposite route to the Habs. While Gainey was busy replacing the players that left Montreal with free agents, the Sabres have done what they have done since time immermorial and called the Rochester Americans. Two 41-win teams taking very different routes to start a season. Is this why?

It certainly is tempting to point to this reasoning as the creator of said gap in the standings. Consistency over shuffle, development over hostile acquisition. There are a few who would reach at this to back up their instinct that Gainey lost his mind in the summer. I think that would be wrong. For every Gomez, there has been a Cammalleri in Montreal. The Sabres don't yet have a 10-goal man, you can't tell me they wouldn't have wanted one in place of say Mike Grier? We are in position to know that Spacek can be a good D to have around, even more so when you consider he fit right in Buffalo.

No, it's not the summer strategy...


Perhaps then it is the Sabres balanced approach to team offense and defence that sets them apart from the Canadiens.

Another low-hanging fruit, and certainly one the media spins out to no end. You know what though? Buffalo as a team has been allowing more than 30 shots a game this year just like Montreal. Their 30.5 shots against vs. our 31.6 for every 60 minutes is probably not the cause of the 7-point spread with games in hand.

Nor is offense their secret. They've scored more goals per game than the Habs, but fewer overall thus far. We have a better PP than them as well.


Look again at the standings. One thing might stand out more now: goals against. That check for the supposition above showed that it wasn't Rivet and his amazing compatriots guarding the Buffalo net in unison, yet the Sabres have allowed 30 fewer goals in 30 fewer games.


Ryan Miller...

Now I'm done with my silly introduction, I bring you to the answer all hockey fans knew as soon as they read the title. Ryan Miller is the answer.


To this point in the season, Ryan Miller is leading the league with a 1.83 GAA and an unworldly 0.939 save %. He has 18 wins in his 26 starts, to go along with 4 shutouts. 2 games ago he shutout the mighty Capitals who directed 35 shots his way.

The Canadiens for their part have Carey Price, who is indeed hot again. I thought it would be interesting to show you the difference between a goalie playing very well (Carey) and a goalie playing absolutely out of his head (Ryan). For fairness, I have only taken games from November 1st on, since before that time Carey was a bit of a basketcase – thereby making a comparison of their better play.

	Carey Price	Ryan Miller	Miller differential
Games played	16	16	0 GP
Record	7-6-3	10-5-1	3W, 4 Pts
GA	40	29	-11 GA
GAA	2.46	1.82	-0.64 GA/G
SA	517	486	-31 SA
S%	0.922	0.940	0.018 (=9 GA)
S0	0	3	3 SO
GF by team	41	41	0 GF
1-goal wins	3	3	0 W
≥30 SA	0.500	0.667	+0.167
<30>	0.625	0.643	+0.018
Best S%	0.977	1.000	+0.023
Worst S%	0.833	0.783	-0.050

Impressed yet?

So as you settle in to watch Buffalo tonight be kind to Montreal skaters. They are facing a Buffalo opponent not seen since the late 1990s with a save percentage like that. Perhaps it is a bubble waiting to be burst, perhaps not.

Let's also hope Carey gets plenty of time to sit back and watch while his teammates test Miller adequately. He could use the rest and might learn some important lessons from a guy who has been showing that clicking on all cylinders for an extended period is possible.

Habs Goalie Threatens Bower's Record

No this isn't an article on Carey Price, nor plea to trade Halak.

Merely to inform you all of something that has probably been completely overlooked by most fans.


Last night, the Hamilton Bulldogs won a thrilling contest in which they scored 5 goals, and won by a large margin. However after the final buzzer, coach Guy Boucher had a sour taste in his mouth. He had just been informed that the goal his team allowed was one that prevented Cedrick Desjardins from breaking a record that had stood for more than 52 years, a record of Johnny Bower's:

“Since 1957! Now I’m really ticked,” said Bulldogs coach Guy Boucher when he was told how close his goaltender was to a record that had stood for more than 50 years.

The streak that Desjardins did lay down was a mere 212 minutes and 37 seconds (or 3.5 games in the end). His bumbling teammates were too focused on their own selfish targets for goals for and allowed a breakdown to happen – for shame.

Anyway, in the midst of all this streaking, Desjardins has also managed to vault himself into the second ranking in the entire AHL for GAA and third for S%. And what numbers too, 1.57 and 0.940 respectively.

It bodes well for either the Habs goaltending depth, or the Habs defenders knowing what they need to do to make a goalie look good in the real show. Especially if you consider that Sanfor, who has played in the teams other 16 games is clocking 2.14 and 0.921 himself.

My thoughts do go out to the people who actually watch this league, though, as 14 goalies saving more then 92% of shots and 3 saving more than 94% doesn't say too much for the quality of shooters, nor bode well for the quality of the spectacle...

Shooting For Success Getting Out Of The Basement

When you look back at a snapshot of the conference standings for November 12, 2009, you'll see that the Canadiens had dug themselves quite a hole. 16 points in 18 games isn't too bad, but it puts the team 11th in the conference and 23rd in the league. What's more, a few teams behind could overtake the Habs by playing 0.500 hockey in their (up to 4) games in hand. At the end of the day, if this were playoff clinching time, the team would only sit solidly ahead of 3 teams in the NHL: the Wild, Leafs and Hurricanes.

Recent chatter in the fan rooms has been all about our abysmal lack of scoring this season and the sudden need to acquire at least 2, if not 3, quality forwards to supplement the attack.


When the Canadiens lose they lose

Give them a close game and it seems they'll win. But, unlike the Islanders, Leafs, Stars and Lightning (who are all pacing 20 OTLs this season), the Canadiens have been in the habit of really losing in their losses.

This is a tricky thing to tease apart, but largely what it tells me is that the Canadiens are an easier team to play against when they are trailing. It seems the way they open up to try and score more goals.

You can really get a feeling for this trend when you look at the Habs record when scoring first vs. allowing the first goal. When taking the lead, the Canadiens are an impressive 6-1-0, while they falter to 2-9-0 when falling behind. It seems to make intuitive sense to us, but perhaps that's the way things have been, so habit for us observers. Detroit who have a better record are 0.400 when scoring first and 0.545 when falling behind; Columbus 0.500 and 0.545, Washington 0.600 and 0.667. In our league are teams like Nashville (0.833 and 0.200), Philly (0.750 and 0.000) and Dallas (0.700 and 0.000). In any case, you might accept the thesis here that being 6th best with the lead and 6th worse without it is not a good plan when you aren't scoring the first goal more than half the time.


Two solutions

From this point, there really are two possible solutions as I see it:

1) Score the first goal more, or

2) Change the way you build attacks when behind


Of the two, I think only a novice coach would settle on the first option and feel proud of his tactical excellence. An experienced coach will know that due to factors like temperamental goalies, bad luck and other teams opting for the same strategy make a dependence on the former folly.

Jacques Martin, being a very experienced coach then, will know that the answer lies with getting the troops to buckle down and not just defend the right way, but attack in the right way too.

In watching the games this season, I had been noticing the trouble with starting 5 offensive defencemen on most nights was that when we did fall behind to that early goal, there was a tendency for everyone to push a long way into the opposition's zone. While we can all get on the defencemens' cases for defensive breakdowns, and on the forwards for not coming back – we must also recognise that this sometimes inefficient style of attack is often the root of the problem.

Another observation I've made is that the new all shot, all the time offence is great, but doesn't really work when a) your defence is weaker than average and b) your goalies can't be counted on to make saves on the inevitable breaks that happen the other way. And although many seem to get equally frustrated with the Sergei/Andrei and Kovalev method of attack by sedation – it really did seem to suit the young goalies better to have the extended rest time.


Lessons from outside the rink

Being a swimmer, one of the sports I have played quite a bit has been water polo. In that sport, it is virtually impossible, largely because of the rules, to get the ball off the other team except by forcing them to shoot (that's why there is a shot clock...). In hockey, the prevailing attitude is that "you can't score unless you shoot", so therefore shooting is a good thing.

I would challenge that hockey could learn from water polo and other sports by starting to understand that not all shots are created equal. Not all are good shots. Some are merely asking for a turnover.

This really goes hand with attacking more efficiently when behind – as it speaks to attacking more efficiently at all times.

Forward, if your two linemates are behind the goal line – perhaps wait on shooting through that Dman. Pinching D, make sure you're covered if you come flying down the wing and intend to let off a shot at the goalie.

Of course, there's a balance, a team that stops shooting altogether just gets themselves into another mess. But the Habs have been getting this whole balance quite wrong so far this season. So as well as improving the goaltending and defensive zone play, I vote for an overhaul of the offensive brief as well.

Think it's too much to ask all at once? If you think that now, you've forgotten July...

Canadiens Season Preview Remaining Goalies And Prospects

The more astute among you will have noticed I got overexcited and missed any discussion of outgoing goalie Marc Denis – such is the impression he made on me last season. Well, NHL stats-wise it would have been a waste of time. And now I'm at the end of the line here, I haven't the energy to spend on an AHL journeyman no longer with the team. Today is my last installment of the preview and it encompasses NHL/AHL player Sanford, next in line Desjardins and the goaltending prospects.

Sanford et al


Curtis Sanford

NHL Season	GP	Starts	Pulled	Min	W	L	OTL	GAA	Save %	SO
08-09 (VAN)	19	15	3	973	7	8	0	2.59	0.906	1
07-08 (VAN)	16	9	2	679	4	3	1	2.83	0.898	0
06-07 (STL)	31	26	5	1492	8	12	5	3.18	0.888	0

Personal save profile
	Average save percentage at even strength Made slightly more saves than expected at even strength Was above average on the PK Played behind a well above average defence at ES and on the PK

Legend


Stats notes
I don't know much of Sanford beyond what you see here, so this should be interesting. Here's what I think:

1) As good as his defence
Last season, Curtis put up some nice numbers – better than Price's even. But do not be fooled, that whole right side of the pie shows that he got some very nice defensive help from his teammates. The 0.910 expected save%, particularly, is a very nice starting point to be giving a goalie – it leaves little to do to crack the league top 30 list. By the same token, his stats in St. Louis were poor on a poor team – no heroics then.

2) Don't expect full starts
Last season he played in 19, but only started 15. In 3 of those 15 starts he was pulled. Similarly, the previous year, there were 7 complete games with 9 incomplete ones. That's 19 complete games in 2 years (and 16 partial ones). I wouldn't expect anything different this year, health of the current team permitting. An able back-up to be sure, but not one seen as a starter in this NHL anymore.


3) Settling in
After briefly trying to crack the NHL as starter, and then as top-2 man in St. Louis, it seems that Curtis may be settling now into that third man role where he can thrive. More occasional starts with more regular work on the farm have translated into better stats in both locales.


Topham on Sanford:

When I heard we had signed Curtis Sanford, my mind immediately went back to the pitiful St Louis Blues. The first I heard of Sanford was when he wrested the starting job form Patrick Lalime in St Louis back in 2005. That season was effectively his NHL rookie season and he put up some good numbers. But ever wanting to fit the mould of future Habs goalie, the next year when given his golden ticket, he stumbled (that'd be that 0.888 season you can see above). From that moment it seems the league has said thanks but no thanks to Curtis Sanford as starter or even backup starter.

But since then, he's also pulled his game together. 2 seasons in the NHL were spotted with fewer games but improvement. Parts of a season in the AHL were marked by absolute dominance. Consider then, when Gainey was looking for a goalie to help Cedrick Desjardins and possibly stand in for some minutes if an NHL guy went down, that Curtis Sanford was not such a daft choice.

I expect this season will be a mirror of Marc Denis' season last year, with pretty much the entirety of a season spent in Hamilton, shining for the most part, with a brief if any call-up to the Bell Centre. His experience of being part of the league winning, and always ambitious, Moose franchise should aid and abet the morale in Hamilton – a reminder that though dreams lie in the NHL, winning in the AHL while being paid hundreds thousands to do it ain't half bad. Any mentoring of Cedrick Desjardins at this point would be a big bonus, because the Habs are staring down the barrel of a gun with goalie prospects at the moment. I think over the season he will be asked to pass the torch to Desjardins, something that may spell the end to another brief veteran goaltending career in Hamilton.


Where Sanford will start 2009-10: Starting goalie in Hamilton

Where Sanford will end 2009-10: Co-starter in Hamilton

Key (NHL) stats: 5 GP, 0 GS



Potential call-up

1) Cedrick Desjardins

Just who is this Cedrick Desjardins that we are meant to be trusting with our fortunes if disaster strikes? You can be excused for not knowing the answer.

Cedrick is an undrafted youngster who has taken the road less travelled to get to where he is in the depth chart. From very very humble beginnings as a 1-game winner (20 starts) on the 11-game, Crosby-targeting, tanking specialists that were the 2002-03 Rimouski Oceanic he steadily improved as a goalie in junior. 2003-04 was OK, but it was 2004-05 and 2005-06 where he shone. In 04-05, he backstopped a Crosby led team to the Memorial Cup finals (though they lost to a stacked Knights squad). The next year, with equally impressive stats for the Q, he took Quebec (with Radulov and Esposito) to the Memorial Cup finals again – this time to win.

From there, he had a training camp invite but nothing more from the Chicago Blackhawks. And then, though the stingy Montreal media would never give Gainey credit for it, the French Canadian (NB, to be exact) goalie was scoped by the Habs organization. With Halak and Danis in the picture, Cedrick was to offer depth, and that first season he did (in Cincinnati), where once again his numbers improved. The following year, 2007-08, he was to be called up to the Bulldogs for an extended stint and performed very well (0.909 in the AHL). he'd end the season in style by starring in the Cyclones' capture of the Kelly Cup – a third championship final in four years. That brings us to last season where Desjardins was chief deputy to Marc Denis all season long. In 30 games, he once again improved his numbers (0.919 and 2.55 this time) to mark another season of progress. In the end, it was probably his strong play that sealed Denis' fate and paved the way for a Sanford/Desjardins tandem.

I note that he is a possible call up because his numbers in the AHL so far are very credible. We've seen him in camp against NHLers now too, and he fared well enough to keep that credibility. With other young goalies at the top level, it doesn't seem like Desjardins is here for the Canadiens. However, if he takes another step forward, he could well make things interesting by the trade deadline – making himself, Sanford or one of the NHLers bait for organizational improvements.


2) [Fill in blank]

If 3 goalies sustain injuries, Gainey will need to move as there is nothing looking anything like an NHL player beyond Desjardins in this system.

Loic Lacasse might have had a place here, but the 2004 draft pick, who put up some nice stats in his first stint in Hamilton showed the patience of Jaroslav Halak's agent and has committed careericide in the first degree by signing a contract with the NAHL. Oh, heady days.



The next wave

1) Robert Mayer

Though born in Czech, he represents the Swiss, and with a name like Mayer it's not hard to fathom why. The Canadiens signed Mayer during the summer of 2008 after his first season with the Saint John Sea Dogs of the QMJHL. His 2008-09 was once again spent in new Brunswick, and while his personal stats took a leap in the right direction, the Sea Dogs he was leading were left disappointed in their quest for silverware.

It says the Canadiens assigned Mayer to Hamilton after his sojourn in Montreal for training camp, but that was only temporary. He should be the top goalie the next level down – a replacement for the departed Lacasse. Hopefully he'll get the lion's share of the work in Cincy, so he can take the next step in development and provide us with a bit of proper depth at this position.


2) Jason Missiaen

Perhaps in the future we will get a chance to witness Missiaen skating up to "The Monster" after a sweep of Toronto in the playoffs (OK, sweep of the Marlies?). The sooner the 6'3" Swede is made to look like a dwarf and not a troll, the better – then we can put that stupid nickname to bed.

As for Missiaen, there isn't really much more to say than that he is very big (6'8" by most accounts). Drafted by the Canadiens in 2008, probably on a bit of a flyer, he is still playing junior hockey this season. After taking what seemed to be backwards steps with the Petes last year, Missiaen seems to have started well this season as their new full-time starter. As with Mayer, any improvement will be welcomed. But it's hard to see him unseating Price, Halak or even Desjardins at any point in the future. Still, where there's a limb, there's a way – and he has lots of limb, his pads must make Giguere's look like toys.


3) Petteri Simila

The Canadiens scouting of goalies seems to have become a little lax, wouldn't you say? I mean, I know it's good we have two guys under the age of 25 in the NHL. And that if all goes well the goaltending position could be sealed and delivered for a decade and a half; but perhaps one criteria on top of height?

Petteri Simila is the midge of the Canadiens junior goalies, a mere 78" tall. What we do know about him is that he was drafted with the very last pick in the NHL draft (basically a free agent signing if you ask me). Someone somewhere must have caught one of the Karpat back-up's games and decided he was worth a look. Still, let's not assume too much, the scout didn't bother to mention it until the draft was basically over.

I look at Simila as a try-out really, no different than Desjardins or Mayer – the fact he was drafted being irrelevant. This season's try-out for the big man will be in the Niagara Falls area with the IceDogs. Though he'll wear the logo which enshrines Don Cherry's pitbull for the year, we can rest assured that the luminary himself won't be interfering with our prospect, since he sold the team a while back.

Simila has an uphill battle to prove himself to IceDogs brass, let alone Habs brass. The season has started with him in the back-up role. If he can wriggle into starting position and do something of note, another camp might be in his future. Then again, Canadiens prospects are so thin on the ground at his position merely being able to tie skates by next summer might be enough.

Canadiens Season Preview NHL Goalies

For those that have been tiring at the previews over the last week (I know, defensive defencemen, yawn), this should perk you up. The goaltender preview. You know we've been hard on Price and aren't afraid to point out his blemishes. I know some of you don't like it. Should be a good mix for some discussion.

Price - Halak


Carey Price

NHL Season	GP	Starts	Pulled	Min	W	L	OTL	GAA	Save %	SO
08-09 (MTL)	52	49	1	3036	23	16	10	2.83	0.905	1
07-08 (MTL)	41	40	2	2413	24	12	3	2.56	0.920	3

Personal save profile
	Slightly above average save percentage at even strength Made more saves than expected (based on shot quality) at even strength Was among league worst at making saves on PK (worst among starters)

Legend


Stats notes
Carey had a few missteps in the second half of last season and it shows in his statistics. While even I would have bought the thoroughbred line in January, but was seriously sceptical of being told I shouldn't believe anything but in Gainey's patronising post-season talk. While I have covered Carey's season in much more depth elsewhere (Are These Thoroughbred Stats?), I'll do the highlights from the stats here today:

1) Very sound at even strength
One thing you'll notice from the special goalie pie is that Carey Price has a very good save percentage at even strength. Playing behind a defence that is letting up shots that should go in 9.5% of the time, he makes sure that only 8.6% go in. From watching his play, I can tell you this is what I like. When the play is at normal tempo, without any added complications, he covers the angles and makes more saves than an average goalie would.

2) Bad last season when shooters had time
I think the PK save percentage is quite an interesting one. While the stats sites haven't run the same expected save % numbers on these stats, I have tried to paint the picture myself. For Carey, the picture isn't good. Price was pretty much the worst goalie in the league on the PK last year. And while apologists tell us the defence let him down, that bright green segment tells us that compared to most goalies in the league, Carey was actually getting decent defence, even above average at times. My interpretation of this is that Price hasn't adapted his game to the PK yet. While at ES, his amazing positioning and movement is more than enough, on the PK it isn't. On the PP shooters enjoy more time and free positions, they can set their feet for shots and even pick corners without the pressure of defence. Goaltending against this kind of attack is typically difficult, but can be improved with quickness and reflexes. Carey's 0.803 save percentage tells us he's not up to the standard of his peers in those skills yet.

3) Defence never as good as it could have been
When you see a 0.920 save percentage on a first place team, you shouldn't then glance left and see 2.56 GAA. When a team has goalies that make more than the expected rate of saves, it seems wasteful to then turn around and allow more than the average amount of shots. Apart from the help he got on the PK (and decided not to take), Carey hasn't been as insulated as you might hope a very young goalie would be. This is not an excuse, merely an observation. I would be remiss not to also note that many do manage more with less.


Carey's career has taken in more highlights and lowlights in 2 years than many veteran goalies have had in a career. From great to merely good, we must hope he turns the trending of his progression around, because even sticking on good at this point may not be enough.


Tobalev on Price:

Carey started the year well, but injuries, All-Star festivities, the Centennial, the expectation to win and a whole bunch of other issues seemed to affect him in a very negative way. His problems (even at his best times) have always been his inability to rebound from a bad goal (or stint) and his glove hand - these two areas were a huge concern in pretty much every game he played from January onwards. I think that last winter was when we, the team and even Carey may have realised that he was no Dryden or Roy; no, for now, he was average and he'd have to work to progress. The defence surely let him down on numerous occasions (as did the offence), but at the end of the day he simply wasn’t good enough (or as good as he had been) to take us anywhere; he was one of the main reasons we almost missed the playoffs.

The one good thing heading into this year is that Carey will get much more support from his teammates on a nightly basis. I think that the general consensus is that we have a better coach, a better system and better defencemen. All of this may turn Carey’s off nights (or weeks or months) into something that we can work with. I am not too concerned with his numbers, except for one – wins. If he can find a way to let in one less goal than the other keeper and find ways to bounce back from rough goals/outings, then he may indeed be here for the long haul. I am afraid, however, that if he picks up where he left off last year then we will eventually have some choices to make. I for one am not sold on him being the centerpiece of the next two decades for this team, and he’ll have to play quite well to change this mind. That said, all I want is for us to win games and for now we know we’ll have to give that a shot with Price back there.

Gainey will make sure, if healthy, Carey plays in 50-65 games (regardless of performance), so you should expect to see 25-35 wins. I predict 2 shutouts (the defence is better after all) and slightly improved numbers; 2.60 GAA and .914 Save %.


Where Price will start 2009-10: Starting goalie

Where Price will end 2009-10: Starting goalie

Key stats: 33 W, 2.60 GAA, 0.914 save%



Jaroslav Halak

NHL Season	GP	Starts	Pulled	Min	W	L	OTL	GAA	Save %	SO
08-09 (MTL)	34	33	3	1931	18	14	1	2.86	0.915	1
07-08 (MTL)	6	4	0	285	2	1	1	2.11	0.934	1
06-07 (MTL)	16	16	2	912	10	6	0	2.89	0.906	2

Personal save profile
	Above average save percentage at even strength Made more saves than expected (based on shot quality) at even strength Among league leaders at making saves on PK

Legend


Stats notes
Because there are only 2 goaltenders, this preview certainly does lend itself better to head-to-head comparisons. The debate is likely to once again rage and settle and rage and settle as to who to start in important games (it is Montreal). I can only start it off here by pointing out that Halak, last season was the better Canadiens goalie on the whole, but that really he was the better of two average goalies:

1) Very similar to price at ES
Although you'd never think it from watching them both play at ES, both Halak and Price are well above average. Halak's pie does look different, but a closer look at the numbers show that although he snuck into a higher quintile, raw save percentage and raw expected save percentage were very similar.

2) Excellent last season on the PK
If the two were all but the same at ES, PK is where their fortunes diverged. While Price was league worst, Halak flirted with the Backstroms and Lundqvists of the league with his 0.890 rate of efficiency. To extend my theory on Price, I believe that is because Halak has better reflexes and is better at improvising at this stage of his career – two skills that serve him well under bombardment.

3) Even worse defence than our man Price got
Better save percentages and worse GAA say that on average Halak did not enjoy even the level of mediocrity that Price did from his skaters. Here's the rub though, it shouldn't matter. Good goalies find ways to let in less goals overall, even if means they have to post gaudy 0.930+ save percentages. If Halak wants to grab a starting position here or elsewhere, he'll need to cut down goals against whatever his defenders decide to do.


2006-07 was an unexpected surprise. 2007-08 was tantalizing with numbers. It seems 2008-09 was just about the real Halak. If that's true what you get is a goalie who makes saves he shouldn't and from worse starting position than his more technically-sound rival. I'm not sure he's the best back up int he league, but another season of 0.915+ and you'd have to think he's close.


Tobalev on Halak
On the whole, Halak’s 2008-09 season looks pretty good - 18-14-1, 1 SO, 2.86 and 0.915 – but there were still some concerns. I seem to remember that when given the chance he never really took the bull by the horns. To be fair to him though he did have that one incredible stretch that was interrupted by the flu, an illness that likely cost him more starts and his team a deeper run into the playoffs. I guess what I am trying to say is that Jaro isn’t as good as Price-bashers make him out to be (he himself is only really average and has yet to perform for long stretches at a time), but he is better than some people make him out to be too (he would be a very desirable back-up options for most GMs). His season last year taught us that he is definitely good enough to play a lot of games and to squeak out wins, but also that he isn’t (at least not yet) an elite NHL goaltender; we are therefore batting 0/2 in that department.

I can’t see Jaro really going anywhere anytime soon, he should be in Montreal all year. A lot of people want him traded, but I don’t think our depth would allow for that, besides, he isn’t quite good enough that he’d get us very much in return. Therefore, he is best suited to playing in Montreal for now, behind Price. I believe that the starter job, however, could be up for grabs by as early as Christmas and I really believe that Halak has a shot at being that guy this time around. If (or maybe when?) Price falters, look for Jaro to start getting some consecutive starts. For now, however, he will play about once every three or four games. I fully expect his Save % to remain high and his GAA to go down to the 2.40-2.60 range (again, thanks to team etc.). If I had to bet I would say he features in 35-40 games and will likely play for about a .550 winning %. That should give him about 15-20 wins when you consider that he’ll be coming into some of those games as relief.


Where Halak will start 2009-10: Back-up

Where Halak will end 2009-10: On a charge again

Key stats: 16 W, 2.47 GAA, 0.915 Save%


While Halak was surely better than Price last season, he was frustrating to his supporters in not being able to prove that he will be better than Price. As Tobalev said, both have lots to learn, both are currently occupying the average territory in league goaltending ranks.

Perhaps not as controversial as I promised. I think I held back knowing that I'd done a bit of this work before, and that I wouldn't have the time or the inspiration to match it. For those who want to see that follow the link to the little read Carey Price Segment from last May.




Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier

Season Preview In The Gates

I'm just putting the finishing touches on the season preview for 2009-10, and the first installment should be with you tomorrow. For those used to checking for one post a day here, I'll try to make accommodations so that the layout doesn't cause you to miss my opinion on Travis Moen, which you've all been dying to see.

I'm starting with the forwards, line by line, top to bottom, followed by defencemen pairings, and then goalies. With coverage of a few players every day, the team should get a proper run through by the time training camp is well and truly over.

I have to say that playing with some of the statistics has been an interesting game this summer. For one thing, I don't think I quite appreciated how bad defensively most players on the team were last year (compared to the league). By the same token, there are pleasant surprises as well. In trying to be a bit more thorough this year than perhaps previous years, I have expanded the facets of the game I will look at. For completeness, there always has to be some mention of the basics (i.e., GP, G, A, Pts, etc.). However, in addition to those things, I have gone walkabout and come back with some of the metrics that people at other blogs around the league are looking at, and even concocted a few (albeit simpler) ones of my own. Things such as total chances generated (shots + blocked shots + missed shots), total chances allowed, the difference between (aka CORSI), and some newer stats like zone shift, balance of takeaway to giveaway, etc.

I should also say that this experience has made me a lot more positive about the prospect of all these new faces – as I hope reading the previews will do for you. With one exception, Gainey has done his homework here, and we shouldn't be on the cusp of a Samsonov scenario, unless something very strange occurs.

I wanted to thank both Tobalev and frequent commenter and statistics-fan Olivier, with whom I have been having frequent conversations about this year's team offline, and who both contributed to the content and the direction of these previews.

Tobalev (name still TBC), will of course be back helping with the game previews and reviews throughout the season. We hope to be able to build as big a repository on why Gomez, Cammalleri and Gionta are more than their end of season goal and point stats indicate, as we did for Koivu and Kovalev.

Olivier will hopefully continue his valuable input and insight through the comments, but also keeps himself busy with his musings on the new-wave statistics that have taken hold almost everywhere but Montreal through his own blog: En Attendant Les Nordiques.

Enjoy the skating. Not long till game action now...

Carey Price: Thoroughbred In The Gates?

At his press conference, Bob Gainey was asked why he kept turning to Carey Price, despite the fact that the reporter, his wife, and a multitude of fans thought an alternative approach was called for.

Bob, finding a chance to wriggle out of the question, decided to make jokes about the reporter's wife. Laughter ensued and lost in the analysis was his response.

His response, after his joke, was that Carey Price is, and I quote, "a thoroughbred". The other part of the answer was that Bob made this decision more than a year ago when he decided to trade Cristobal Huet.

It seems that one decision carries a lot of weight in this organisation as Gainey is prepared to stick by it regardless of what fans think, regardless of wins and losses and regardless of other players' careers being trampled in the process.

This is all well and good and maybe Bob Gainey is right.


But here at Lions in Winter, we are not as easy to please as most, nor do we just roll over in the face of a good old debate. We think (and you'll know that if you're a regular reader) that there is certainly a reasonable margin of doubt as to what Gainey has to say about his protege is accurate, and we're going to put forward our case for consideration.

Since this is a big issue and we have plenty of time before the next game, I have decided to portion out this argument into segments.

The first question I want to deal with is whether Carey Price is or isn't a thoroughbred at all. I have scoured some stats to come up with my side of the argument and I expected to meet some resistance in the comments (which I welcome).

The second topic I want to address is the way that Carey has been handled by the organization; and, moreover, how drafting Carey Price in 2005 has affected how every other player in the organization is handled.

Finally, the third segment deals with the practicalities of dealing with the seemingly inevitable – that is having Carey price as our starting goalie for the next 5 years. Here things like veteran back-ups, shoring up the defence and strategy adjustments are presented.


[I'll keep this post at the top of the blog until all sections are complete and update the links when available. Hope you enjoy.]



As an aside, I thought with all the attention on the young man, there would be some calls for us to cease and desist as there usually are. In anticipation of this I offer:

Is Lions in Winter out to get Carey Price?

The simple answer is no.

The minute a player steps onto the ice for a competitive game in the uniform we love, we support that player. We support this team to win.

It is the very same with Carey Price. When Carey starts a game we very much hope for a shutout each time out. We cheer his saves and wish him on.

It has to be said that we created a bit of a monster with the dome when we set it up – particularly the goalies. Unlike other blogs, we have a requirement to address the goaltending in a specific section 86 times a season – which means that goalies seem to be garnering a whole lot of attention. Such is the position, we say. You need a goalie for every game; that one player is on the ice for 60 minutes; so it seems natural to us that he get a lot of attention.

We also made a choice early on (despite comments that thought we were being ridiculous): to use the dome position to put in the back-up when we felt the goalie had a bad game. So when Carey Price lets in 2 bad goals in a loss and we put Halak in the dome, it simply means Carey Price had a bad game in our estimation and the other guy (whoever it is) gets the mention. This goalie selection for the dome has already been the focal point for so many good comments and stimulated the best discussions, that it would be a shame to get rid of it – even at the risk of seeming entrenched on positions at times.

Outside the game reports, Carey has had a lot of the spotlight, but in our defence it was not brought on by us alone. All I've ever wanted is to open the discourse on the seemingly closed book about Price being can't miss in this league. That's not to say I don't think he's the closest thing to can't miss that we currently have, or have had in a decade. And it is the golden ticket issued to Price that we take most issue with, not his worthiness for the Sainte Flanelle.


All that said, this latest piece is what we call an elephant in the room – we just feel someone needed to talk about it. I invite you to join in as you will.

Shots Against Counterintuition At Play

Montreal media lamenting a loss – too many shots against.

Montreal media complaining about an undeserved win – too man shots against.

Bob Gainey's analysis of Carbonneau's team – too many shots against.

Too many shots against is a bad strategy, it a consensus. It can be proven with stats...

Not so. Read this astounding piece on the Canadiens website. It turns everything you know about defence upside down.

"When the lockout ended and hockey returned in 2005-06, the NHL wanted to open up the game - have goalies face more rubber and perhaps have a few more get by them. While that was the wish, the pair don’t always go hand in hand. The league’s masked men have proven that the busier they are, the better they are."

In fact, the numbers are astounding:

96-86-41 in 2005-06
87-54-34 in 2006-07
78-57-28 in 2007-08
73-71-36 in 2008-09

Combine that's 334-268-139 for at least (because the stats end at 60 minutes) 807 points out of a possible 1482 – a 0.544 winning percentage.

Based on these averages, it would not be an insane coaching move to let up 40+ shots a a game, every game (provided you had the goalie to cope). If you did so over 82 games and averages played in your favour, you'd be in line for 37 wins, 30 losses and 15 trips to OT. Even if you lost every one of those OT games, you'd have 89 points. If you give your goalie some benefit of the doubt (after all he does rescue you 54% of the time in regulation) you could probably get 8 more points for a respectable and playoff-bound 97 points.

A very interesting article indeed...


I'm not sure what the reason for this oddity is, but it should be a combination of the following:

a) Goalies are better when facing more shots
b) Teams that take a lot of shots are being impatient
c) Teams taking a lot of shots are lost for ideas as to how to beat the goalie
d) A saved shot is a turnover opportunity
e) Paying for the top goalies (winners) leaves little money for paying a functional defensive corps

I'll let you guys decide which you think is more likely in a new poll in the right-hand column...

Canadiens Mood SwingsBackbreakers and Gamesavers

The Canadiens are beginning to look like a very enigmatic group to us. In many ways, that is an accurate take – there seem to have been lots of ups and downs. However, there have been some consistent traits for the Canadiens of late – namely starting from behind and the inability to blow the lid off opponents.

I took a look back a number of games. I started with the number 20 in mind, but extended it to 22. That number is most significant because it reaches back to about our last really solid win – the 5-2 victory over the Flyers. Coincidentally, it also corresponds to a tumultuous time when Koivu and Higgins were lost and Komisarek was brought back in.


Letting up the first goal
Allowing the first goal is a tough blow for a hockey team in turmoil, but not that bad for one with its strategy and confidence in order. Even so, repeatedly starting form behind must wear on anyone.

In the last 22 games:

– The Canadiens have allowed the first goal on 15 occasions
- Their record on those 15 occasions has been a pretty respectable 7 wins and 8 losses

– In 11 of the 15 games, the Habs have clawed back to 1-1
– In those games they have a winning record of 6-5

In the other 4 games, where they fell behind 0-2, the Habs posted 1 win and 3 losses

It hardly matters who is to blame on these occasions, it is not helpful as a team to look for a scapegoat. Encouragingly, this team seems to have a bit of doggedness in them to make sure they score the second goal of the game, even once coming back from 2 down to win.


Letting up the third goal
When a team battles back, as it did 11 out of 15 games; it can sometimes be deflating to fall behind again. Comebacks are built on momentum swings and sometimes it is a lot to ask for a game to swing back twice to your side, given it's only 60 minutes (and some of that time is frittered away with useless 4th line hockey).

– The Canadiens have let up the third goal in 6 of 11 of games they've come back to tie
– In those games, they have still managed to win 2, but predictably also lost 4

– The Habs have scored third in 5 of the contests where comebacks have been on
– In those games, they've won 4 and lost only once


Going down by two goals
In a game with as much parity as there is, it's not surprising that going down by 2 isn't a good tactic. Yet, the Habs (obviously despite their wishes and best efforts) have still been behind by 2 quite frequently in the last 22 games:

– The Canadiens have trailed by 2 goals on 10 occasions in the last 22 games
– They won a solitary game from those occasions, losing the other 9
– That one win is the only time they've even fought back to tie it up
– They only fought back to be within one goal on 3 occasions (once being the win)


So, as you can see, the Canadiens backs are broken at 2 goals down (pretty much) – making that save ever so critical. By the same token, if the defence and goalie can hold on to bring it back to 1-1, then the team has a winning record. Even down 1-2, the team has it in them to pull it back sometimes. If the 4th goal goes to the Habs after falling 1-2, then they have a 2-1 record.

So you can see that if a goal is not allowed, what would have been a backbreaking goal, is now a gamesaving save.


When we score first
Just as games aren't wrapped up at 0-1, nor are they sealed at 1-0. The thing is, though, they almost are.

– The Habs have scored first in 7 of the last 22 games
– Their record in those games is 5-2

When they score again, it's over. Admittedly the statistical relevance of the single 2-0 lead in the last 22 games is questionable. One certainly cannot question the momentum it gave the team to go on and crush the Leafs.

Amazingly, whether it's the team or the goaltenders, there has been some conspiracy for two months to never make the other team feel left out in the cold.

– 7 games where we took the lead have become 1-1 draws
- In 2 of the 6 we let the other team score again, losing both times
– In the other 4, we scored the third goal, winning them all

Here too, the backbreakers come into play. It's as if, the team says "There you go D, we got you the lead" and can manage if the D and G buckle down and limit the goals against. But should it be two straight for the opponents, that second is a "here we go again" backbreaker.


Is every loss lost this way
Quite frankly no. Some games I watch and think that if the game were cut at 50 minutes we would have won, or if it had been extended by an extra 20, we would have won as well.

Some losses are ebb and flow type stuff, where time runs out. These losses, as they say, are part of the game. The "back broken" losses are the hardest to take as an air of futility creeps into the whole affair. The crowd goes quite, the coach goes sour-faced, players are benched, others are sulking.Some continue to press, but by definition the backbone of the team (the majority of players) have been snapped and defeated.

The past 22 games has seen 10 losses in all. During the first month, the losses were (with the exception of that loss to the Devils) ebb and flow type stuff.

Lately (as in the past 9 games), it's been backbreakers all around.


Team morale
I've been on a lot of teams over the years. I know enough to know that momentum swings are hard to take. Going down 0-1 all the time is hard, compound that with the fact that most times a comeback is only answered by a 1-2 deficit. And on top of all that, when the team gets a lead, they just as often find the whole they put the other team in being patched over by their own mistakes.

It's draining this stuff. The drain is what you can see on the faces of players, in the skating of the forwards, in the body language on the bench.

The bottom line is that some people feel they have been holding up their end of the bargain (66 goals scored in 22 games); while they feel their contemporaries have not (73 goals against in 22 games).

It's great that Mike (accomplice in the futility) Komisarek is backing Carey Price, but his opinion matters little. Kovalev, Koivu, Plekanec, Kostitsyn wouldn't say it publicly, but they show it – they are tired of working hard for the goals when they are constantly being let down. What's more, they get the blame for missing their coverage, while others get off scott-free.

Don't believe me, watch them skate straight to the bench in disgust time after time in this clip (if you can bear it):


Goaltending
It's easy to blame the goalies as they say. But, I think it's equally easy and a heck of a lot more commonplace, not to.

Let's face it, over the past 9 games, the goaltending has been absurd in its hopelessness. Price did win the game puck once, but has seen the wrath of the bench in the dome an astounding and sickening 6 times. I should note that there is usually some argument when Tobalev goes so hard on the goalie. There was only argument once in these 6 disses. So, it's pretty safe to say he's been sub-sub-par.

It all starts with Halak fluffing 3 straight goals to Atlanta, but continues with the Shakespearian comedic turn of Carey Price who, uncharacteristically or not, has broken the spirit of the team in front of him.


Blame game
I'm loathe to blame a 21-year-old, so I won't. I'll blame the coach. Specifically, the pretty consistently pathetic Roland Melanson.

Oh sure, he's a good coach when everything is tickety-boo, but when goalies go into slumps and actually need some advice and counsel, he has an appalling record.

During his time here now he has overseen some promising projects in Montreal. It started with Thibault who was never coached well enough to stop playing 1/4 of the game on his stomach, then Theodore whose glove-side lethargy would never be cured, Aebischer who slid into a bad slump never to recover and now Price (for the second time in 50 odd games) losing all semblance of wherewithal in the net.

He has never dealt with relatively easy and obvious faults like stick-handling (i.e., telling the guys not too – Theodore, Huet, Price and Halak), nor has he ever really reversed a slump.

You can't ignore either that during this time, Dallas has pumped out Turco, Dan Ellis and Mike Smith; the Sharks Nabokov and Kirpusoff; Minnesota Roloson, Fernandez and Backstrom.

What's more, I think Melanson is wasting space on our team that should focus on not allowing shots on goalies who are great with angles but terrible shot stoppers (when shooters have time). What we need is a defensive coach to deal with AWOL projects like Komisarek and O'Byrne.

Fans are starting to get the same ideas as us here, and are beginning to question what Melanson actually does.