Next up, defending. This was really Boston's strength. Though Montreal were pretty good in their own way throughout the season too. There really wasn't an addition the like of Thomas Vanek to sway things in this. The Habs have been slightly worse defensively with Vanek, but his time coincided in the regular season with key events like Price's injury and Gorge's injury, so I didn't want to lay it all on him.
Showing posts with label goals against. Show all posts
Showing posts with label goals against. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
Monday, January 17, 2011
Price vs. Price
40 Games By Stats
Carey Price just played his 40th game of the season on Saturday night. An accomplishment in itself for the oft-beleaguered netminder of 2009. As it happens 40 games provides an interesting point to have a more in-depth look at Carey's stats.
As a whole, we rated Carey as a solid A last week, and heard arguments for A-. Overall, I think we'd all have to admit there's been some brilliant goaltending along the way. That's not to say there aren't lingering concerns from our previous roller coaster seasons with the young goalie. Is this an excellent season? Or did Carey just have one excellent stretch? On to the stats...
The 20-20 dichotomy
The 20th the game of the season was Carey Price's 4th shutout. It propelled him to unthinkable numbers: 2.05 GAA and 0.932 Sv%. It was his 19th dome in 19 starts. 12 wins from 19. Critics, we heard were silenced.
At the turn of the 40th, that 31st save clinched a 22nd win and firmed his above average output of 2.37 in GAA and 0.919 in Sv%. At 40 games it is still critic-silencing stuff. He's a winning goalie challenging in important stats categories. Yet his early excellence prompts some examination.
What does it take to get from 0.932 to 0.919? How many goals a game does a goalie have to allow to slip from 2.05 every 60 minutes to 2.37?
Team output?
This is the favourite of many. While it is certainly true that in some games Carey received incredibly poor support from his teammates. the averages tell us that it went both ways. In fact, if you look below, you can see that the Habs scored more goals, allowed fewer shots and fewer chances over the 20 games. If all else was equal, one might have expected a stabilization in stats, if not an improvement.
Looking at things this way is far too simplistic, i realise. But it remains that this is one of the things to examine in this puzzle. It is not the main part of any explanation it seems, from a quick check at least.
A return to earth?
Some stats, no matter how much we want to believe otherwise, are probably just too good to be true. In stats circles, there's endless talk about regression to the mean (they don't like Tim Thomas all the time). In Carey's case, the stat that stood out like a sore thumb was his SHSv%. Over the years I have kept an eye on these things, and can tell you that anything over 0.850 in this category is exceptional. For a goalie to post 0.917 over a season would thoroughly smash established marks and norms. All to say, it probably wasn't going to last.
Since the 20 game mark, Carey has posted a very very good 0.869 on the PK. However, the return to very good from out of this world is at least partially responsible for the drop in all numbers.
A slip in preparation?
At the beginning of the season (at least after those preseason debacles), I marvelled at Carey Price's preparation. Every game, he would come in and just look an impenetrable fortress. His numbers tell the tale.
Below are two charts. The first shows his stats by period. One can see clearly here that in the first twenty games, Carey was truly outstanding at the beginning of games. Over 0.948 for two periods. The second chart shows the stats I have been tracking on when goals go in. Again, Carey was just amazing at Game 20 here. He was allowing the first goal only after an average of nearly 15 shots were taken (and nearly 7 quality scoring chances) -- this gave him game starting numbers of 0.937 and 0.869 for chances. Both outstanding.
But has something happened? The second twenty show little change in play after the second period, but now Carey is a 0.910ish goalie in the first frames. What's more, he's been allowing goals after just 9 shots instead of 15, and 3.6 chances instead of 6.65, dropping his starting game numbers significantly.
Perhaps this is only luck, or a regression to the mean as well. But I'd swear that he's looked different.
The next 20 games are critical
This is all very interesting, but I don't think this sample answers many questions for us just yet. I find it too difficult to dissect from the numbers just now. The slip in preparation teamed with a return to earth seem most likely to hold the key explanation, but we've yet to see.
The biggest question has to be about what that first stretch of the season was. Was it a pleasant surprise? A fortuitously timed one-off streak? Or was it Carey taking his play to a new level? The next 20 games will help us answer which streak (the incredible one or the latest below average spell of ten games) is the real outlier in his play.
For anyone who watched those first 20-30 games as closely as I did, it is tempting to suggest that the real Carey Price played in October and November. But getting real answers takes time. This is an interim update, the final analysis is yet to come.
As a whole, we rated Carey as a solid A last week, and heard arguments for A-. Overall, I think we'd all have to admit there's been some brilliant goaltending along the way. That's not to say there aren't lingering concerns from our previous roller coaster seasons with the young goalie. Is this an excellent season? Or did Carey just have one excellent stretch? On to the stats...
The 20-20 dichotomy
The 20th the game of the season was Carey Price's 4th shutout. It propelled him to unthinkable numbers: 2.05 GAA and 0.932 Sv%. It was his 19th dome in 19 starts. 12 wins from 19. Critics, we heard were silenced.
At the turn of the 40th, that 31st save clinched a 22nd win and firmed his above average output of 2.37 in GAA and 0.919 in Sv%. At 40 games it is still critic-silencing stuff. He's a winning goalie challenging in important stats categories. Yet his early excellence prompts some examination.
What does it take to get from 0.932 to 0.919? How many goals a game does a goalie have to allow to slip from 2.05 every 60 minutes to 2.37?
Team output?
This is the favourite of many. While it is certainly true that in some games Carey received incredibly poor support from his teammates. the averages tell us that it went both ways. In fact, if you look below, you can see that the Habs scored more goals, allowed fewer shots and fewer chances over the 20 games. If all else was equal, one might have expected a stabilization in stats, if not an improvement.
Looking at things this way is far too simplistic, i realise. But it remains that this is one of the things to examine in this puzzle. It is not the main part of any explanation it seems, from a quick check at least.
A return to earth?
Some stats, no matter how much we want to believe otherwise, are probably just too good to be true. In stats circles, there's endless talk about regression to the mean (they don't like Tim Thomas all the time). In Carey's case, the stat that stood out like a sore thumb was his SHSv%. Over the years I have kept an eye on these things, and can tell you that anything over 0.850 in this category is exceptional. For a goalie to post 0.917 over a season would thoroughly smash established marks and norms. All to say, it probably wasn't going to last.
Since the 20 game mark, Carey has posted a very very good 0.869 on the PK. However, the return to very good from out of this world is at least partially responsible for the drop in all numbers.
A slip in preparation?
At the beginning of the season (at least after those preseason debacles), I marvelled at Carey Price's preparation. Every game, he would come in and just look an impenetrable fortress. His numbers tell the tale.
Below are two charts. The first shows his stats by period. One can see clearly here that in the first twenty games, Carey was truly outstanding at the beginning of games. Over 0.948 for two periods. The second chart shows the stats I have been tracking on when goals go in. Again, Carey was just amazing at Game 20 here. He was allowing the first goal only after an average of nearly 15 shots were taken (and nearly 7 quality scoring chances) -- this gave him game starting numbers of 0.937 and 0.869 for chances. Both outstanding.
But has something happened? The second twenty show little change in play after the second period, but now Carey is a 0.910ish goalie in the first frames. What's more, he's been allowing goals after just 9 shots instead of 15, and 3.6 chances instead of 6.65, dropping his starting game numbers significantly.
Perhaps this is only luck, or a regression to the mean as well. But I'd swear that he's looked different.
The next 20 games are critical
This is all very interesting, but I don't think this sample answers many questions for us just yet. I find it too difficult to dissect from the numbers just now. The slip in preparation teamed with a return to earth seem most likely to hold the key explanation, but we've yet to see.
The biggest question has to be about what that first stretch of the season was. Was it a pleasant surprise? A fortuitously timed one-off streak? Or was it Carey taking his play to a new level? The next 20 games will help us answer which streak (the incredible one or the latest below average spell of ten games) is the real outlier in his play.
For anyone who watched those first 20-30 games as closely as I did, it is tempting to suggest that the real Carey Price played in October and November. But getting real answers takes time. This is an interim update, the final analysis is yet to come.
Monday, September 20, 2010
More Food For Thought: 2008-09 vs. 2009-10 (New Acquisitions)
More looks at how players fared from 2008-09 to 2009-10. This time, I'll share the profiles from all those players who were established NHLers but only joined the Habs last summer or afterwards.
New Acquisitions
Legend
You can find a longer explanation of the charts here.
Scott Gomez
Gomez made a transition with the Habs. From a league-leading shot taker and Corsi man, he fell into negative balance for chances while he was on the ice at ES. Strangely, this led to more GF and a better GF:GA differential at ES. I think we'd all be happier if he was on for less shots against, but can we really imagine him upping the shots for, especially if he's the one taking them?
Brian Gionta
Gionta did very similar things up front as he did in 2008-09. What shows here for him is that he was no longer on the Devils. While many a player looks a defensive specialist in New Jersey, it may be that Brian isn't that good at all at defence. After all, last season, he was among the worst at allowing shots and didn't fare too well in GA either. Still, I'll take the top tier offense with that trade any day.
Mike Cammalleri
Cammalleri too missed his old team here. While he still managed to put his line among league average on shots for and in the top tier for goals for, his chart suggests he was as guilty as anyone for allowing the goalies to be peppered night after night. Perhaps an adjustment will come (we've heard everyone has needed a year to become accustomed to each other), but by my memory of his play, this chart doesn't seem out of whack. Once again, I'll take the top tier goals even at the expense of shots against.
Benoit Pouliot
Pouliot had a stunner, even with a slow finish. Top 20% in the league for GF and chances for at ES is great for the young forward. To top it off, he was stellar in the GA column at ES as well, though the numbers suggest that such a low shooting percentage for his opposition (or high save percentage for his goalie) was a one-off gift.
Travis Moen
Moen was a pretty poor offensive player coming in and he comes out one too. That said, he somehow managed to keep GA down at ES with his linemates, albeit with the same goaltending bonus that Pouliot benefited from.
Mathieu Darche
I've misplaced the 2008-09 data for now, so Darche is without comparators. GF:GA for Darche and you can't complain, he's a winner at ES. But he's a Hab in the shots, offering very few going forward and allowing as many as humanly possible at the back. I think stats guys would suggest that his GF:GA might be a little less rosy if he keeps up the shot dance.
Dominic Moore
No comparator for Moore either, and loads of Panthers data polluting things. Still manages the purple, dark blue bottom half, though. New colours for the Canadiens.
Jaroslav Spacek
Spacek went from being an offensive generator with great Corsi balance to a steadier defenceman with decent Corsi (all relative to the Habs standards, of course). These charts are reflective of the new role that Spacek took on. Whereas in Buffalo, he was the point man on the PP and expected to contribute at ES to the rush, his partnerships in Montreal were more often designed to be steadier. As things go, above average offense and average D is pretty good, and very underrated in Montreal.
Hal Gill
Hal Gill left Pittsburgh and it shows. The offense that used to just happen during his on-ice minutes completely evaporated. That said, he still posted a stunning GA/60 number below 2.00 with the usual Habs methodology of allowing chances.
Paul Mara
Mara nearly managed to be bottom tier in every category. I think we know now he wasn't carrying his partnership in New York when he was on for as little as 2.04 GA/60 at ES. Not back this year, I'd say that's a good decision.
Marc-Andre Bergeron
No comparator again. Bergeron's chart is still interesting. Consider this, when you describe Bergeron, did you ever say "below average offense and average D"? No you didn't. For all his bravado on the PP, I think this chart shows just how much trouble the Montreal defenders had in integrating his style into their group. The purple top corner is living proof of his ability to stifle rushes before they began.
General trend
There were a couple of general trends that came from looking at these. The first and most obvious was the shift every player seemed to have in chances against at ES. This is nothing new to us, and we all knew it happened. However, it's still striking to see in living colour. Gomez, Gionta and Cammalleri went in one season from being top bets for preventing shots to allowing among the most in the league.
The second general trend is stranger. It appears that several players actually got better at preventing goals at ES. A group that included Brian Gionta, Cammalleri, Spacek and Gill. And all this with more chances allowed. Consider now they came from teams backed by Brodeur, Kiprusoff, Miller and Fleury. Shows what a year Habs goalies had, or perhaps how excellent shot concession is as a strategy?
And, because I forgot him last time...
Max Pacioretty
Not much change in the chances for and against department, but the story of Pacioretty's 2009-10 is available in full colour on the top half of these pies. Where he once muddled on offense and defence as a youngster, he went all in on D as a second year posting outstanding GA/60, with pathetic GF/60 at ES. Still think moving him from forward is daft?
New Acquisitions
Legend
You can find a longer explanation of the charts here.
Scott Gomez
| 2008-09 | 2009-10 |
 |  |
Gomez made a transition with the Habs. From a league-leading shot taker and Corsi man, he fell into negative balance for chances while he was on the ice at ES. Strangely, this led to more GF and a better GF:GA differential at ES. I think we'd all be happier if he was on for less shots against, but can we really imagine him upping the shots for, especially if he's the one taking them?
Brian Gionta
| 2008-09 | 2009-10 |
 |  |
Gionta did very similar things up front as he did in 2008-09. What shows here for him is that he was no longer on the Devils. While many a player looks a defensive specialist in New Jersey, it may be that Brian isn't that good at all at defence. After all, last season, he was among the worst at allowing shots and didn't fare too well in GA either. Still, I'll take the top tier offense with that trade any day.
Mike Cammalleri
| 2008-09 | 2009-10 |
 |  |
Cammalleri too missed his old team here. While he still managed to put his line among league average on shots for and in the top tier for goals for, his chart suggests he was as guilty as anyone for allowing the goalies to be peppered night after night. Perhaps an adjustment will come (we've heard everyone has needed a year to become accustomed to each other), but by my memory of his play, this chart doesn't seem out of whack. Once again, I'll take the top tier goals even at the expense of shots against.
Benoit Pouliot
| 2008-09 | 2009-10 |
 |  |
Pouliot had a stunner, even with a slow finish. Top 20% in the league for GF and chances for at ES is great for the young forward. To top it off, he was stellar in the GA column at ES as well, though the numbers suggest that such a low shooting percentage for his opposition (or high save percentage for his goalie) was a one-off gift.
Travis Moen
| 2008-09 | 2009-10 |
 |  |
Mathieu Darche
| 2008-09 | 2009-10 |
 |  |
I've misplaced the 2008-09 data for now, so Darche is without comparators. GF:GA for Darche and you can't complain, he's a winner at ES. But he's a Hab in the shots, offering very few going forward and allowing as many as humanly possible at the back. I think stats guys would suggest that his GF:GA might be a little less rosy if he keeps up the shot dance.
Dominic Moore
| 2008-09 | 2009-10 |
|  |
No comparator for Moore either, and loads of Panthers data polluting things. Still manages the purple, dark blue bottom half, though. New colours for the Canadiens.
Jaroslav Spacek
| 2008-09 | 2009-10 |
 |  |
Spacek went from being an offensive generator with great Corsi balance to a steadier defenceman with decent Corsi (all relative to the Habs standards, of course). These charts are reflective of the new role that Spacek took on. Whereas in Buffalo, he was the point man on the PP and expected to contribute at ES to the rush, his partnerships in Montreal were more often designed to be steadier. As things go, above average offense and average D is pretty good, and very underrated in Montreal.
Hal Gill
| 2008-09 | 2009-10 |
 |  |
Hal Gill left Pittsburgh and it shows. The offense that used to just happen during his on-ice minutes completely evaporated. That said, he still posted a stunning GA/60 number below 2.00 with the usual Habs methodology of allowing chances.
Paul Mara
| 2008-09 | 2009-10 |
 |  |
Mara nearly managed to be bottom tier in every category. I think we know now he wasn't carrying his partnership in New York when he was on for as little as 2.04 GA/60 at ES. Not back this year, I'd say that's a good decision.
Marc-Andre Bergeron
| 2008-09 | 2009-10 |
|  |
No comparator again. Bergeron's chart is still interesting. Consider this, when you describe Bergeron, did you ever say "below average offense and average D"? No you didn't. For all his bravado on the PP, I think this chart shows just how much trouble the Montreal defenders had in integrating his style into their group. The purple top corner is living proof of his ability to stifle rushes before they began.
General trend
There were a couple of general trends that came from looking at these. The first and most obvious was the shift every player seemed to have in chances against at ES. This is nothing new to us, and we all knew it happened. However, it's still striking to see in living colour. Gomez, Gionta and Cammalleri went in one season from being top bets for preventing shots to allowing among the most in the league.
The second general trend is stranger. It appears that several players actually got better at preventing goals at ES. A group that included Brian Gionta, Cammalleri, Spacek and Gill. And all this with more chances allowed. Consider now they came from teams backed by Brodeur, Kiprusoff, Miller and Fleury. Shows what a year Habs goalies had, or perhaps how excellent shot concession is as a strategy?
And, because I forgot him last time...
Max Pacioretty
| 2008-09 | 2009-10 |
 |  |
Not much change in the chances for and against department, but the story of Pacioretty's 2009-10 is available in full colour on the top half of these pies. Where he once muddled on offense and defence as a youngster, he went all in on D as a second year posting outstanding GA/60, with pathetic GF/60 at ES. Still think moving him from forward is daft?
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Habs Goalie Threatens Bower's Record
No this isn't an article on Carey Price, nor plea to trade Halak.
Merely to inform you all of something that has probably been completely overlooked by most fans.
Last night, the Hamilton Bulldogs won a thrilling contest in which they scored 5 goals, and won by a large margin. However after the final buzzer, coach Guy Boucher had a sour taste in his mouth. He had just been informed that the goal his team allowed was one that prevented Cedrick Desjardins from breaking a record that had stood for more than 52 years, a record of Johnny Bower's:
The streak that Desjardins did lay down was a mere 212 minutes and 37 seconds (or 3.5 games in the end). His bumbling teammates were too focused on their own selfish targets for goals for and allowed a breakdown to happen – for shame.
Anyway, in the midst of all this streaking, Desjardins has also managed to vault himself into the second ranking in the entire AHL for GAA and third for S%. And what numbers too, 1.57 and 0.940 respectively.
It bodes well for either the Habs goaltending depth, or the Habs defenders knowing what they need to do to make a goalie look good in the real show. Especially if you consider that Sanfor, who has played in the teams other 16 games is clocking 2.14 and 0.921 himself.
My thoughts do go out to the people who actually watch this league, though, as 14 goalies saving more then 92% of shots and 3 saving more than 94% doesn't say too much for the quality of shooters, nor bode well for the quality of the spectacle...
Merely to inform you all of something that has probably been completely overlooked by most fans.
Last night, the Hamilton Bulldogs won a thrilling contest in which they scored 5 goals, and won by a large margin. However after the final buzzer, coach Guy Boucher had a sour taste in his mouth. He had just been informed that the goal his team allowed was one that prevented Cedrick Desjardins from breaking a record that had stood for more than 52 years, a record of Johnny Bower's:
“Since 1957! Now I’m really ticked,” said Bulldogs coach Guy Boucher when he was told how close his goaltender was to a record that had stood for more than 50 years.
The streak that Desjardins did lay down was a mere 212 minutes and 37 seconds (or 3.5 games in the end). His bumbling teammates were too focused on their own selfish targets for goals for and allowed a breakdown to happen – for shame.
Anyway, in the midst of all this streaking, Desjardins has also managed to vault himself into the second ranking in the entire AHL for GAA and third for S%. And what numbers too, 1.57 and 0.940 respectively.
It bodes well for either the Habs goaltending depth, or the Habs defenders knowing what they need to do to make a goalie look good in the real show. Especially if you consider that Sanfor, who has played in the teams other 16 games is clocking 2.14 and 0.921 himself.
My thoughts do go out to the people who actually watch this league, though, as 14 goalies saving more then 92% of shots and 3 saving more than 94% doesn't say too much for the quality of shooters, nor bode well for the quality of the spectacle...
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Canadiens Season Preview
Top Line Offense
As expected, here is the preview of the Canadiens top line:
A Kostitsyn – Gomez – Gionta
Scott Gomez
Legend
Stats notes
You can't glean everything from stats, and the game remains to be played on the ice. However, some interesting things jump out of Gomez's stats here for me:
1) Gomez is insanely good at creating shots
65.9 shots directed at the net per shift for the Gomez line last season is very near the top of the league. Very few players take more shots than Gomez, very few lines can count on more than one shot released a minute.
2) Gomez is consistently one of the worst shooters in the league
Gomez himself seems to be an atrocious shooter. Nearly 800 shots to 45 goals over the past 3 seasons, and at a relatively consistent average.
3) Nevertheless, his approach tips the ice in his team's favour
His offensive chances are based on defense, not at the expense of defence. Elite scoring shot generation with average number of shots allowed. It's not bad for an offensive line at all – in fact, Gomez's CORSI number (the difference between those two pie segments is an outstanding
Not having seen enough of Gomez, I am starting to form a picture of what I'll be seeing based on all this. I think far from being the orthodox playmaker who holds the puck and makes those seeing eye passes (Marc Savard, for example); Gomez will likely be using quick shots on net as a tool to create the plays, as well as passing. An assist is an assist is an assist, after all. But for this kind of playmaker, the shooters must be right.
Tobalev on Gomez:
First off, to be fair to Scott and to you, we have to get over a few things here. Let’s look at Scott the hockey player and forget the salary, forget the expectations that we have for a #1 centre and forget how he was brought to the team and who left to make that possible. When we look at Gomez the player we see a vastly different story to when we look at Gomez the NYR UFA/MTL Huge-Acquisition.
In Scott we have a player who has some serious credentials; he has been a number one centre, he has won the Cup and he has been one of the best playmaking centres over the past 5-10 years. Now, at age 29 I think he has some great years ahead of him and I think he’ll certainly be able to do what Kovalev did when he came from the Rangers; excel in a hockey-mad environment. I believe that he will handle the media well and will be liked by the fans which should help him get over the first hurdle of playing in Montreal - I then think he will be our offensive leader.
He may not lead us in points, goals or assists, but I believe that he will be the engine of our team this year. I would still, however, expect at least 65 points. That may not sound like a lot – and, in Montreal, it kind of is.
Where Gomez will start 2009-10: First line centre with huge expectations
Where Gomez will end 2009-10: First line centre with a season of game changing nights
Points: 16 G, 56 A, 72 Pts
Brian Gionta
Legend
Stats notes
Not used to looking at all this deep red and green – oh what it must be like to watch a team that believes in creating more chances than you allow like NJ. Here's what I see when I look at the data on Gionta:
1) Gionta's shooting percentage dropped in 2007-08
Coincident with a certain player leaving, Gionta's shooting dropped, and for two seasons now. As NJ shifted the point of attack from Elias-Gomez to Parise, Brian had to make adjustments. I wonder if perhaps the way Gomez peppers the net was missed by Brian for some percentage raising tap ins.
2) It's all positive at even strength
Top fifth in GF, ChF and ChA per 60 minutes for the Gionta line last season. His only slip was in actual GA, but a figure like 2.42 on the Canadiens would be very very welcome indeed.
3) Another shooter
Amazing numbers of shots by Brian himself – totals that would have led the Canadiens last year by a very wide margin.
Though his goalscoring numbers have taken a hit, and the 48 goal season was certainly a blip, his offensive production has been relatively steady, both in terms of Pts/60 and GF/60 when he's been on the ice. Perhaps it's a maturing Gionta who finds new ways to influence the game. We'll see.
Tobalev on Gionta
In the summer that we got big in came Gionta. I am not sure if Petrov was smaller, but look for Brian to take up as much of the playing surface as Oleg used to. That said, Petrov was one of my favorite players, and boy could he play on his night. With precedents set, I have nothing against the small man and I honestly believe he can get the job done – I just find it amusing that we let ‘small’ players go for even smaller ones.
Peace with the small players of the league aside, I am not thrilled that we have locked this player (whose production is declining) up for so long. Still, for now let’s just worry about this year, shall we? Beyond this season is not our problem (yet), it is Martin’s, Gainey’s and Brian’s.
When we focus down to the next few months, Brian's addition takes on a new light. A return to the scene of the crime (sort of) with his old buddy Gomez may just be what the doctor ordered, but I don’t think that his season depends on that pairing. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they spent more time apart this year than they do together. I could see Brian being placed on the second line with Plekanec and a winger other than Cammalleri. Though, I don’t expect a 40-goal year or, for that matter, anything close – 25 goals is what I would like (and expect) to see from this player. I do also think that he'll bring much more to the table than just goal-scoring. An NJ player, in (or at least near) his prime, coming to us to show us some secrets. Expect strong defensive play, excellent situational awareness and a sense of discipline on the ice that this current version of the Habs definitely needs. I expect he'll be the type of player that will make those around him better and hopefully teach people a thing or two.
Where Gionta will start 2009-10: First line winger with huge expectations
Where Gionta will end 2009-10: Fan favourite with team lead in GWG
Points: 27 G, 35 A, 62 Pts
Andrei Kostitsyn
Legend
Stats notes
A player we know well for a change. Nothing in Kostitsyn's read out really surprises, though there are some elements that confirm what the optimists have been saying. To note:
1) He produces goals
1.27 G/60 2 years ago in his de facto rookie year, and 1.20 last year. It's consistent and all the more impressive considering the PP wasn't there to pad his stats quite as much.
2) Offense comes very much at the expense of defence
There's room for improvement with Andrei here. It didn't take any fancy calculations or year end stats for me to work out that Andrei cares as much for defence as he does about for Kurt Sauer. And while I can live with a winger being slow on the way back, it would be more comfortable for team and fans (when pressure games arise) to know that Andrei will play the other way from time to time. INterestingly, as CORSIs go, his isn't that bad – a case for offense being the best defence then.
3) His shot is special
Again, the shooting percentage only backs up what we all saw – that Kostitsyn's shot can beat a feet-set, angles covered goalie better than anyone we've seen in two decades in Montreal. The fact he doesn't shoot much is frustrating, sure. But when goals are needed, it's better to have his skills than most.
I wouldn't look for the massive explosion that there could have been in goals for Andrei, mainly since the PP minutes he could have taken when Kovalev departed will be shared between himself, Cammalleri and Gionta. I think his role and contribution will grow through the season, and January (if history is any indicator) could be his watershed. Progress will be made, but perhaps not fully reflected in the stats if there is a slower start.
Tobalev on Andrei Kostitsyn
Will anyone benefit from Kovalev’s departure more than Andrei? I don’t think so.
Don’t get me wrong as I think Andrei (and I) would love having Alex back, but I do think Kovalev was one reason we haven't yet seen the full Andrei Kostitsyn package. I feel that the game Andrei wants to play (and should be playing) was very similar – probably too similar – to Kovy’s, and because of that it was Andrei who was first to adapt his play a different style. Whether that meant playing on an off-wing, less PP time or just less time stick-handling himself; it all affected Andrei’s raw production levels. Now those excuses have been made on Kostitsyn’s behalf it is certainly time to see him play, at a high level, each and every night.
Other than shedding Kovalev's shadow, Kostitsyn should also be guaranteed 2 great line-mates this year (which hasn’t always been the case). His line may very well include his secret weapon: Sergei. To speculate, I could see him playing very well with Gomez and wouldn’t be surprised if that is where he spent most of his season. Yes, he has had success with Pleks, but I think that their bad times out-number their good.
One day, I see Andrei scoring 40, 45 or even 50 goals, but I don’t think it will all happen this season. Instead, look for him to get more goals than assists and hopefully finish close to the 60-point mark. Of course, his defensive play is in dire need of improvement if he wants to be put out in more pressure-packed situations, so I am looking for Martin to really take him under his wing this year. If he can be Martin’s new Havlat or Hossa we may see a player emerge that we never knew we had. Andrei's got that incredible amount of potential you don't see everyday, and I really think that we are about to see the start of a very steady incline in his quality of play.
Where A Kostitsyn will start 2009-10: Finding a place on the top two lines and the PP
Where A Kostitsyn will end 2009-10: Bona fide game changer with most highlight entries for play of the year
Points: 31 G, 33 A, 64 Pts
As a line
Gomez is the starting point for any top line on the Canadiens this season. While it seems that Gomez can coax more production out of several plyer types, it would be foolhardy to disregard the effect he has shown on Brian Gionta's game. Without Gomez, Gionta is a fine player, but with him, he becomes a proper league-feared goalscoring threat.
Who then to play on their left? Gainey has given Martin options here. Fundamentally, though, to achieve success getting both Andrei Kostitsyn and Tomas Plekanec going again should be top of the list. Two years ago, they were a dynamic duo, but last season they sapped the energy out of each other. That's why I prefer a change for both. An offensive line to be reckoned with for Andrei, leaving a very dynamic new linemate to spark Pleks. What's more, Andrei's lackadaisical approach to defence is probably better contained with Gionta and Gomez who know where to be themselves rather than Plekanec and winger #2. All in all, gotta be worth a try...
Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier
A Kostitsyn – Gomez – Gionta
Scott Gomez
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | GWG | G/60 | Pts/60 | Sh | S% | PIM |
| 08-09 (NYR) | 77 | 16 | 42 | 58 | -2 | 3 | 7 | 0.59 | 2.15 | 271 | 5.9 | 60 |
| 07-08 (NYR) | 81 | 16 | 54 | 70 | +3 | 7 | 3 | 0.60 | 2.61 | 242 | 6.6 | 36 |
| 06-07 (NJ) | 72 | 13 | 47 | 60 | +7 | 4 | 1 | 0.57 | 2.64 | 248 | 5.2 | 42 |
| Even-strength profile | |
 |
|
Stats notes
You can't glean everything from stats, and the game remains to be played on the ice. However, some interesting things jump out of Gomez's stats here for me:
1) Gomez is insanely good at creating shots
65.9 shots directed at the net per shift for the Gomez line last season is very near the top of the league. Very few players take more shots than Gomez, very few lines can count on more than one shot released a minute.
2) Gomez is consistently one of the worst shooters in the league
Gomez himself seems to be an atrocious shooter. Nearly 800 shots to 45 goals over the past 3 seasons, and at a relatively consistent average.
3) Nevertheless, his approach tips the ice in his team's favour
His offensive chances are based on defense, not at the expense of defence. Elite scoring shot generation with average number of shots allowed. It's not bad for an offensive line at all – in fact, Gomez's CORSI number (the difference between those two pie segments is an outstanding
Not having seen enough of Gomez, I am starting to form a picture of what I'll be seeing based on all this. I think far from being the orthodox playmaker who holds the puck and makes those seeing eye passes (Marc Savard, for example); Gomez will likely be using quick shots on net as a tool to create the plays, as well as passing. An assist is an assist is an assist, after all. But for this kind of playmaker, the shooters must be right.
Tobalev on Gomez:
First off, to be fair to Scott and to you, we have to get over a few things here. Let’s look at Scott the hockey player and forget the salary, forget the expectations that we have for a #1 centre and forget how he was brought to the team and who left to make that possible. When we look at Gomez the player we see a vastly different story to when we look at Gomez the NYR UFA/MTL Huge-Acquisition.
In Scott we have a player who has some serious credentials; he has been a number one centre, he has won the Cup and he has been one of the best playmaking centres over the past 5-10 years. Now, at age 29 I think he has some great years ahead of him and I think he’ll certainly be able to do what Kovalev did when he came from the Rangers; excel in a hockey-mad environment. I believe that he will handle the media well and will be liked by the fans which should help him get over the first hurdle of playing in Montreal - I then think he will be our offensive leader.
He may not lead us in points, goals or assists, but I believe that he will be the engine of our team this year. I would still, however, expect at least 65 points. That may not sound like a lot – and, in Montreal, it kind of is.
Where Gomez will start 2009-10: First line centre with huge expectations
Where Gomez will end 2009-10: First line centre with a season of game changing nights
Points: 16 G, 56 A, 72 Pts
Brian Gionta
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | GWG | G/60 | Pts/60 | Sh | S% | PIM |
| 08-09 (NJ) | 81 | 20 | 40 | 60 | +12 | 3 | 1 | 0.87 | 2.62 | 248 | 8.1 | 32 |
| 07-08 (NJ) | 82 | 22 | 31 | 53 | +1 | 8 | 4 | 0.88 | 2.12 | 257 | 8.6 | 46 |
| 06-07 (NJ) | 62 | 25 | 20 | 45 | -3 | 11 | 4 | 1.28 | 2.31 | 194 | 12.9 | 36 |
| Even-strength profile | |
 |
|
Stats notes
Not used to looking at all this deep red and green – oh what it must be like to watch a team that believes in creating more chances than you allow like NJ. Here's what I see when I look at the data on Gionta:
1) Gionta's shooting percentage dropped in 2007-08
Coincident with a certain player leaving, Gionta's shooting dropped, and for two seasons now. As NJ shifted the point of attack from Elias-Gomez to Parise, Brian had to make adjustments. I wonder if perhaps the way Gomez peppers the net was missed by Brian for some percentage raising tap ins.
2) It's all positive at even strength
Top fifth in GF, ChF and ChA per 60 minutes for the Gionta line last season. His only slip was in actual GA, but a figure like 2.42 on the Canadiens would be very very welcome indeed.
3) Another shooter
Amazing numbers of shots by Brian himself – totals that would have led the Canadiens last year by a very wide margin.
Though his goalscoring numbers have taken a hit, and the 48 goal season was certainly a blip, his offensive production has been relatively steady, both in terms of Pts/60 and GF/60 when he's been on the ice. Perhaps it's a maturing Gionta who finds new ways to influence the game. We'll see.
Tobalev on Gionta
In the summer that we got big in came Gionta. I am not sure if Petrov was smaller, but look for Brian to take up as much of the playing surface as Oleg used to. That said, Petrov was one of my favorite players, and boy could he play on his night. With precedents set, I have nothing against the small man and I honestly believe he can get the job done – I just find it amusing that we let ‘small’ players go for even smaller ones.
Peace with the small players of the league aside, I am not thrilled that we have locked this player (whose production is declining) up for so long. Still, for now let’s just worry about this year, shall we? Beyond this season is not our problem (yet), it is Martin’s, Gainey’s and Brian’s.
When we focus down to the next few months, Brian's addition takes on a new light. A return to the scene of the crime (sort of) with his old buddy Gomez may just be what the doctor ordered, but I don’t think that his season depends on that pairing. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they spent more time apart this year than they do together. I could see Brian being placed on the second line with Plekanec and a winger other than Cammalleri. Though, I don’t expect a 40-goal year or, for that matter, anything close – 25 goals is what I would like (and expect) to see from this player. I do also think that he'll bring much more to the table than just goal-scoring. An NJ player, in (or at least near) his prime, coming to us to show us some secrets. Expect strong defensive play, excellent situational awareness and a sense of discipline on the ice that this current version of the Habs definitely needs. I expect he'll be the type of player that will make those around him better and hopefully teach people a thing or two.
Where Gionta will start 2009-10: First line winger with huge expectations
Where Gionta will end 2009-10: Fan favourite with team lead in GWG
Points: 27 G, 35 A, 62 Pts
Andrei Kostitsyn
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | GWG | G/60 | Pts/60 | Sh | S% | PIM |
| 08-09 (MTL) | 74 | 23 | 18 | 41 | -7 | 6 | 2 | 1.20 | 2.13 | 169 | 14.0 | 50 |
| 07-08 (MTL) | 78 | 26 | 27 | 53 | +15 | 12 | 5 | 1.27 | 2.60 | 156 | 16.7 | 29 |
| 06-07 (MTL) | 22 | 1 | 10 | 11 | +3 | 0 | 0 | 0.20 | 2.25 | 38 | 2.6 | 6 |
| Even-strength profile | |
 |
|
Stats notes
A player we know well for a change. Nothing in Kostitsyn's read out really surprises, though there are some elements that confirm what the optimists have been saying. To note:
1) He produces goals
1.27 G/60 2 years ago in his de facto rookie year, and 1.20 last year. It's consistent and all the more impressive considering the PP wasn't there to pad his stats quite as much.
2) Offense comes very much at the expense of defence
There's room for improvement with Andrei here. It didn't take any fancy calculations or year end stats for me to work out that Andrei cares as much for defence as he does about for Kurt Sauer. And while I can live with a winger being slow on the way back, it would be more comfortable for team and fans (when pressure games arise) to know that Andrei will play the other way from time to time. INterestingly, as CORSIs go, his isn't that bad – a case for offense being the best defence then.
3) His shot is special
Again, the shooting percentage only backs up what we all saw – that Kostitsyn's shot can beat a feet-set, angles covered goalie better than anyone we've seen in two decades in Montreal. The fact he doesn't shoot much is frustrating, sure. But when goals are needed, it's better to have his skills than most.
I wouldn't look for the massive explosion that there could have been in goals for Andrei, mainly since the PP minutes he could have taken when Kovalev departed will be shared between himself, Cammalleri and Gionta. I think his role and contribution will grow through the season, and January (if history is any indicator) could be his watershed. Progress will be made, but perhaps not fully reflected in the stats if there is a slower start.
Tobalev on Andrei Kostitsyn
Will anyone benefit from Kovalev’s departure more than Andrei? I don’t think so.
Don’t get me wrong as I think Andrei (and I) would love having Alex back, but I do think Kovalev was one reason we haven't yet seen the full Andrei Kostitsyn package. I feel that the game Andrei wants to play (and should be playing) was very similar – probably too similar – to Kovy’s, and because of that it was Andrei who was first to adapt his play a different style. Whether that meant playing on an off-wing, less PP time or just less time stick-handling himself; it all affected Andrei’s raw production levels. Now those excuses have been made on Kostitsyn’s behalf it is certainly time to see him play, at a high level, each and every night.
Other than shedding Kovalev's shadow, Kostitsyn should also be guaranteed 2 great line-mates this year (which hasn’t always been the case). His line may very well include his secret weapon: Sergei. To speculate, I could see him playing very well with Gomez and wouldn’t be surprised if that is where he spent most of his season. Yes, he has had success with Pleks, but I think that their bad times out-number their good.
One day, I see Andrei scoring 40, 45 or even 50 goals, but I don’t think it will all happen this season. Instead, look for him to get more goals than assists and hopefully finish close to the 60-point mark. Of course, his defensive play is in dire need of improvement if he wants to be put out in more pressure-packed situations, so I am looking for Martin to really take him under his wing this year. If he can be Martin’s new Havlat or Hossa we may see a player emerge that we never knew we had. Andrei's got that incredible amount of potential you don't see everyday, and I really think that we are about to see the start of a very steady incline in his quality of play.
Where A Kostitsyn will start 2009-10: Finding a place on the top two lines and the PP
Where A Kostitsyn will end 2009-10: Bona fide game changer with most highlight entries for play of the year
Points: 31 G, 33 A, 64 Pts
As a line
| Line #1 | Effect O/D | |
| C – Scott Gomez |  |
|
| RW – Brian Gionta | |
|
| LW – Andrei Kostitsyn |  |
|
Gomez is the starting point for any top line on the Canadiens this season. While it seems that Gomez can coax more production out of several plyer types, it would be foolhardy to disregard the effect he has shown on Brian Gionta's game. Without Gomez, Gionta is a fine player, but with him, he becomes a proper league-feared goalscoring threat.
Who then to play on their left? Gainey has given Martin options here. Fundamentally, though, to achieve success getting both Andrei Kostitsyn and Tomas Plekanec going again should be top of the list. Two years ago, they were a dynamic duo, but last season they sapped the energy out of each other. That's why I prefer a change for both. An offensive line to be reckoned with for Andrei, leaving a very dynamic new linemate to spark Pleks. What's more, Andrei's lackadaisical approach to defence is probably better contained with Gionta and Gomez who know where to be themselves rather than Plekanec and winger #2. All in all, gotta be worth a try...
Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier
Monday, August 10, 2009
Canadiens Outlook
The Expected Impact Of Jacques Martin
A couple of days ago, I saw a reporter joking about Bob Gainey's first answer when he's eventually asked the question about who he thinks his best off-season acquisition was. The reporter suggested that there will be no hesitation and Gainey will offer the name of Jacques Martin.
It's a joke because that's what Bob Gainey said this past winter when asked about his best move of the summer – replying without taking a breath that it was Guy Carbonneau. No sooner had he said it, was Guy losing games like a southern expansion franchise and earning his multi-million dollar salary for relaxing days on the golf course in March.
I can hear Bob Gainey giving the anticipated response. For one thing, he has that kind of humour. For another, it means he doesn't have to choose between players – the diplomat's way. But you know what, if you really think about it, shouldn't it be the answer we're all hoping for anyway? I'm sure we all hope Gomez is a success and that Spacek replaces Streit, but if come January Gainey stands up and says any name other than Jacques Martin's, I have a feeling we're not going to be a happy bunch.
Bad rap
The reason people probably don't wish to be looking to Martin as the beacon of hope in the mid-season is because of the fear for what that will mean. Upon his hiring, the media (especially outside Montreal) made a big deal about the hiring. They also tended to focus very heavily on two distinct elements of Martin's history: a) the trap and b) playoff failings.
Fair enough. Take your shots when you can get them in (Toronto). However, when one looks back over the career of Jacques Martin as a coach, one can see that the criticism as it was back in June, was a bit unfair. For one thing, labeling him as a trap-man completely ignores what he did for Ottawa at the other end of the ice. For another, his playoff record is only bad when placed in the light of the regular season success he had. Few coaches did better over the save time period.
I thought it would be interesting to look at what happened to Ottawa when Jacques Martin joins and what this might mean for the Habs.
Wins/standings
The season before Jacques Martin's first complete campaign Ottawa were a pitiful outfit garnering just 41 points. In the space of that year, Jacques took largely the same team and made them a playoff qualifier for the next 9 seasons. His first season witnessed a 36-point jump in the standings to 77 points and by his 3rd full campaign, Ottawa were perennially hovering around the 100-point mark.
The points serve as a comfort to us Habs fans, but they hardly tell the story. Many teams see jumps in points from one season to the next and many go on to sustain those jumps as well. What was more notable with Jacques' changes in Ottawa was the impact he had on the way the team played. And it was that that eventually led to the winning ways.
Defence
Here you have it trappers – evidence that Martin did indeed tighten up the Ottawa defence. The changes he made to the system were marked and it's no wonder they stick out in so many peoples' memories. In 1995-96, the last year that started without Jacques Martin as the Ottawa coach, the Senators allowed an astounding 291 goals. The very next season, without a real jump in save % (0.888 to 0.891) and very few changes to the overall makeup of the team, Jacques' Senators sliced 57 goals from that total to a "mere" 234. The story comes together when you look at shots against as well, which nosedived from 2493 in 1995-96 to 2,113 the next season.
The changes were sustained as well, with further improvements even to the point that Ottawa could be counted upon to be much better than average in the GA column and even flirt with Jennings contention into the latter stages of seasons.
Offense
Just as striking as the defensive turnaround over Martin's time in Ottawa was the complete jump start of the offensive juggernaut that they were to become under Jacques' tutelage – an oft forgotten side effect of good trapping.
While it's clear that Jacques Martin seems to target defence first, and that he certainly tailors a plan to the players he has available (see Florida), there is also a definite part in his long-term planning, it seems, for generating offensive opportunity from out of the discipline.
From 1995-96 to 1996-97, the Ottawa offense didn't roar to its full potential, but it certainly put together an encouraging start with a boost of 35 goals for (from 191 to 226). There were fluctuations along the way, but by the 4th or 5th year of his tenure they were flirting with top 5 offense in the league annually, and in 2004, when Jacques eventually parted 2004, Ottawa were the top goalscoring team in the entire NHL.
Once again, the results came from a philosophy, as evidenced by the increased and then sustained number of shots for, making sure the team had every chance of scoring at a higher rate.
Impact on Montreal
The parallel between Montreal 2008-09 and Ottawa 1995-96 is not perfect, to say the least, but there are some similarities. For one thing, Ottawa of that era moved to Jacques Martin out of a frustration with a less disciplined style that produced sporadic (and less than hoped for) results, just like our most recent Canadiens. For another, both defences can both be fairly categorised as atrocious by most standards. Both teams let up far too many shots for the calibre of goaltending they could rely on and both paid in goals against, and, to some degree, losses.
In what was a bad season for Montreal last year, the team allowed an astounding 2600 shots against. Quite a contrast with some of those numbers for Martin's Ottawa. Even if you take into account the inflation in shot totals since the lockout, there's no hiding form the fact that Montreal allowed more shots than 23 of their rivals and that most good teams see 300 or so less over a season. Surprisingly, it was an improvement on Carbonneau's system of a year before where the Habs let up 11 less shots, but in a more defensive league overall to put them 26th among their peers.
If Jacques Martin does nothing else but reduce the number of shots aimed at the Montreal end, he should succeed. If Ottawa is a relevant precedent, and the team cuts shots against by 300 or more, then Montreal could flirt with being an above average defensive team; and that's probably regardless of how Price and Halak fare.
Less goals against won't guarantee success, but they do often predict it. Specifically, a team that shoots more than they allow shots should score more than they allow. A team that scores more than they let up should (on average) produce more wins that losses. If it's about positioning yourself for wins and not losses, a cut deep into the heart of shots against is a good place to start.
From that point, if we're playoff bound, we can worry about coach Martin's other legacy when that time comes. If the regular season is negotiated with more ease than by his predecessor, I can't see him setting himself up to do any worse in the playoffs.
It's a joke because that's what Bob Gainey said this past winter when asked about his best move of the summer – replying without taking a breath that it was Guy Carbonneau. No sooner had he said it, was Guy losing games like a southern expansion franchise and earning his multi-million dollar salary for relaxing days on the golf course in March.
I can hear Bob Gainey giving the anticipated response. For one thing, he has that kind of humour. For another, it means he doesn't have to choose between players – the diplomat's way. But you know what, if you really think about it, shouldn't it be the answer we're all hoping for anyway? I'm sure we all hope Gomez is a success and that Spacek replaces Streit, but if come January Gainey stands up and says any name other than Jacques Martin's, I have a feeling we're not going to be a happy bunch.
Bad rap
The reason people probably don't wish to be looking to Martin as the beacon of hope in the mid-season is because of the fear for what that will mean. Upon his hiring, the media (especially outside Montreal) made a big deal about the hiring. They also tended to focus very heavily on two distinct elements of Martin's history: a) the trap and b) playoff failings.
Fair enough. Take your shots when you can get them in (Toronto). However, when one looks back over the career of Jacques Martin as a coach, one can see that the criticism as it was back in June, was a bit unfair. For one thing, labeling him as a trap-man completely ignores what he did for Ottawa at the other end of the ice. For another, his playoff record is only bad when placed in the light of the regular season success he had. Few coaches did better over the save time period.
I thought it would be interesting to look at what happened to Ottawa when Jacques Martin joins and what this might mean for the Habs.
Wins/standings
The season before Jacques Martin's first complete campaign Ottawa were a pitiful outfit garnering just 41 points. In the space of that year, Jacques took largely the same team and made them a playoff qualifier for the next 9 seasons. His first season witnessed a 36-point jump in the standings to 77 points and by his 3rd full campaign, Ottawa were perennially hovering around the 100-point mark.
| Season | Wins | Points |
| 1995-96 | 18 | 41 |
| 1996-97 | 31 | 77 |
| 1997-98 | 34 | 83 |
| 1998-99 | 44 | 103 |
| 1999-00 | 41 | 95 |
| 2000-01 | 48 | 109 |
| 2001-02 | 39 | 94 |
| 2002-03 | 52 | 113 |
| 2003-04 | 43 | 102 |
The points serve as a comfort to us Habs fans, but they hardly tell the story. Many teams see jumps in points from one season to the next and many go on to sustain those jumps as well. What was more notable with Jacques' changes in Ottawa was the impact he had on the way the team played. And it was that that eventually led to the winning ways.
Defence
Here you have it trappers – evidence that Martin did indeed tighten up the Ottawa defence. The changes he made to the system were marked and it's no wonder they stick out in so many peoples' memories. In 1995-96, the last year that started without Jacques Martin as the Ottawa coach, the Senators allowed an astounding 291 goals. The very next season, without a real jump in save % (0.888 to 0.891) and very few changes to the overall makeup of the team, Jacques' Senators sliced 57 goals from that total to a "mere" 234. The story comes together when you look at shots against as well, which nosedived from 2493 in 1995-96 to 2,113 the next season.
The changes were sustained as well, with further improvements even to the point that Ottawa could be counted upon to be much better than average in the GA column and even flirt with Jennings contention into the latter stages of seasons.
| Season | Goals against | Shots against |
| 1995-96 | 291 | 2493 |
| 1996-97 | 234 | 2113 |
| 1997-98 | 200 | 2030 |
| 1998-99 | 179 | 2065 |
| 1999-00 | 210 | 2061 |
| 2000-01 | 205 | 2228 |
| 2001-02 | 208 | 2123 |
| 2002-03 | 182 | 2032 |
| 2003-04 | 189 | 2037 |
Offense
Just as striking as the defensive turnaround over Martin's time in Ottawa was the complete jump start of the offensive juggernaut that they were to become under Jacques' tutelage – an oft forgotten side effect of good trapping.
While it's clear that Jacques Martin seems to target defence first, and that he certainly tailors a plan to the players he has available (see Florida), there is also a definite part in his long-term planning, it seems, for generating offensive opportunity from out of the discipline.
From 1995-96 to 1996-97, the Ottawa offense didn't roar to its full potential, but it certainly put together an encouraging start with a boost of 35 goals for (from 191 to 226). There were fluctuations along the way, but by the 4th or 5th year of his tenure they were flirting with top 5 offense in the league annually, and in 2004, when Jacques eventually parted 2004, Ottawa were the top goalscoring team in the entire NHL.
Once again, the results came from a philosophy, as evidenced by the increased and then sustained number of shots for, making sure the team had every chance of scoring at a higher rate.
| Season | Goals for | Shots for |
| 1995-96 | 191 | 2204 |
| 1996-97 | 226 | 2347 |
| 1997-98 | 193 | 2401 |
| 1998-99 | 239 | 2503 |
| 1999-00 | 244 | 2584 |
| 2000-01 | 274 | 2472 |
| 2001-02 | 243 | 2469 |
| 2002-03 | 263 | 2442 |
| 2003-04 | 262 | 2421 |
Impact on Montreal
The parallel between Montreal 2008-09 and Ottawa 1995-96 is not perfect, to say the least, but there are some similarities. For one thing, Ottawa of that era moved to Jacques Martin out of a frustration with a less disciplined style that produced sporadic (and less than hoped for) results, just like our most recent Canadiens. For another, both defences can both be fairly categorised as atrocious by most standards. Both teams let up far too many shots for the calibre of goaltending they could rely on and both paid in goals against, and, to some degree, losses.
In what was a bad season for Montreal last year, the team allowed an astounding 2600 shots against. Quite a contrast with some of those numbers for Martin's Ottawa. Even if you take into account the inflation in shot totals since the lockout, there's no hiding form the fact that Montreal allowed more shots than 23 of their rivals and that most good teams see 300 or so less over a season. Surprisingly, it was an improvement on Carbonneau's system of a year before where the Habs let up 11 less shots, but in a more defensive league overall to put them 26th among their peers.
If Jacques Martin does nothing else but reduce the number of shots aimed at the Montreal end, he should succeed. If Ottawa is a relevant precedent, and the team cuts shots against by 300 or more, then Montreal could flirt with being an above average defensive team; and that's probably regardless of how Price and Halak fare.
Less goals against won't guarantee success, but they do often predict it. Specifically, a team that shoots more than they allow shots should score more than they allow. A team that scores more than they let up should (on average) produce more wins that losses. If it's about positioning yourself for wins and not losses, a cut deep into the heart of shots against is a good place to start.
From that point, if we're playoff bound, we can worry about coach Martin's other legacy when that time comes. If the regular season is negotiated with more ease than by his predecessor, I can't see him setting himself up to do any worse in the playoffs.
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