At the beginning of the season, more prognosticators than just myself suggested that the Canadiens would only better their 2012 result if Carey Price were able to turn in a better and more dominant performance.
And from the start it seemed like this may be the case. Carey was more prepared than we'd ever seen him for a season and started the year off with the cool confidence that told his teammates: "you go for goals, I'll take care of the rest."
Showing posts with label GAA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GAA. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 01, 2013
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
Lion of December
The Real Player of the Month
It won't necessarily be pretty, but they'll be handing out the returning Canadiens the player of the month award tonight at the Bell Centre. If the team stays true to fan voting, then it could be close. I can't find the total ballots as I did last season (maybe the team is trying to conceal the fact that only 200 people vote a game), but based on fan stars, Price (on a so-so season for him) will continue the sweep.
The fans chose Price first star twice, second star once and third star twice over his 13 starts. Next best was Erik Cole who got three seconds and a third. The NHL version of events has Price with his two first, but a less generous one third to go with. Cole on the other hand got a first star nod from the experts and three seconds. By conventional scoring Cole wins media.
It's always hard to choose the best player over a bad month. The Habs this month turned 14 games into 11 points by going 4-7-3. This meant even with the serious bias of Canadiens fans, they still only awarded stars to 25 of a possible 42 recipients.
I think this month was poor enough that consideration should also be given to those players who played well in losing efforts as well as wins. Thus we look to other elements.
This should be painful: Lion of the Month.
Cole
Let's start with conventional stats. He scored 9 goals in 14 games. He assisted on 4 others. He scored those goals in 9 different games, so it's not like we're overvaluing the Ottawa game here.
In terms of goals created, we assessed that Cole created 6.00 goals on his own. This may not sound like much, but consider that means we think he is responsible for 1/6th of the offensive output for the whole team over a month. Noting that he could only ever be 1/6th of the team on at most goalscoring times, even if he played every minute. Exceptional, in other words. He's doing things on and off the puck to make his line a threat most of the time.
Cole was on the ice for 99 chances in December, including 29 of his own. Both clear highs for a forward on the team. Is it sustainable? Perhaps not the goal completion rate, but for the rest he's shown it's just part of the way he plays -- I'd say yes.
Price
If you look purely on the dome/no dome dichotomy Price did enough to win this nod. I wonder though, did he just do enough enough times, however?
We awarded him the player of the game 4 time in his 13 starts. In those games, Price had a 2-1-1 record with a 1.97 GAA and a 0.935 SV%. Good, but the best in the league post this as their average performance. The flip side were his other 9 games where he was 2-5-2 with a 3.19 GAA and an 0.897 SV%.
It's always hard to fault a goalie and often we give the benefit of the doubt to the player in the last line of defence who has been left to fend for himself. Witness 8 domes for that record in 9 games above. Yet, averages are informative because they help us to spot trends and importantly start to compare against other goalies or past performance.
A crude measure of shot quality is shot location. As you know, Olivier of En Attendant les Nordiques goes far to track this aspect with his scoring chance data. When we filter out missed shots we get high quality shots (or at least shots from high quality locations). This year, I have been doing this and finding that of the shots Price faces, about 42% are of this higher quality. Unfortunately I didn't do this last season, but going on the proportion of missed shots that make the scoring chance record this season (76%), this number is up from last season when he was facing about 36% shots from quality areas. All last season, he'd have been saving about 79% of these shots, identical to this December as it happens.
So, to be absolutely fair to Carey, the evidence is mounting that the Habs have been hanging out to dry.
Diaz
A bit of an honourable mention, perhaps. Diaz, 20-odd games into an NHL career has had a month of great growth actually.
Diaz claimed 6 domes from a possible 12, and tied for the most of any defenceman. We do recall that sometimes this was for not being totally awful, but that is on a par with Price, isn't it?
What specifically drew my eye to Diaz were a few little stats. +2 - Diaz has been rather stingy at ES, a team-leading 1.71. This may be due in part to Carey's heroism or luck when he's been on, but it still stands out. As does his ability to keep chances on net off target (misses or blocks) more than others.
He's also been a big cog on the still putrid (but improving PP). The Habs scored 9 PP goals in December on 55ish PPs. It's not a good percentage, but it's better than before. Diaz's increasing comfort at the point is part of that. It's a shame he can't score, but he does have 6.18 Pts/60 for December, a team high. While he was on, the team scored 9.27 goals per 60 minutes of time as well (or about double the team rate), which was also a team high. Obviously one can't do this conversion and take it seriously, but for fun, this goal rate might convert to a 27.8% efficiency rating (based on an avg PP length of 1:48, or 9 minutes over 5 PPs to score 1 goal).
Lion of November: Erik Cole
Diaz wasn't really in the league of the other two, but that speaks volumes about the team as a whole, doesn't it?
I give the nod to Erik Cole. Price had a good month, but you'd always want to add the words "considering the circumstances" after that statement. Cole just had a good month, even an exceptional one. While team tightening and sways in luck will see this future battle likely go to Price as it did in November, one can't just ignore 9 important goals.
As I've aid, this month's battle was a huge disappointment. Diaz, the legitimate #3 is nowhere near vying for this honour. The two realistic contenders are the same two as November. One must start asking where the rest of the team is.
Cole has very good been individually, but his ability to lead or stir his teammates must come next. Desharnais is producing more than he should/would, but Cole has to be used to somehow now re-infect Plekanec, Pacioretty, Kostitsyn, Cammalleri, Eller, Darche, Moen and eventually Gionta to be something better than average at peak performance.
It's a lot to ask of the free agent Hab, but he'll be doing it for himself. That's because if he wants playoff hockey over this contract, the Habs current group with some fire look the better bet than his old mates in Carolina.
The fans chose Price first star twice, second star once and third star twice over his 13 starts. Next best was Erik Cole who got three seconds and a third. The NHL version of events has Price with his two first, but a less generous one third to go with. Cole on the other hand got a first star nod from the experts and three seconds. By conventional scoring Cole wins media.
It's always hard to choose the best player over a bad month. The Habs this month turned 14 games into 11 points by going 4-7-3. This meant even with the serious bias of Canadiens fans, they still only awarded stars to 25 of a possible 42 recipients.
I think this month was poor enough that consideration should also be given to those players who played well in losing efforts as well as wins. Thus we look to other elements.
This should be painful: Lion of the Month.
Cole
Let's start with conventional stats. He scored 9 goals in 14 games. He assisted on 4 others. He scored those goals in 9 different games, so it's not like we're overvaluing the Ottawa game here.
In terms of goals created, we assessed that Cole created 6.00 goals on his own. This may not sound like much, but consider that means we think he is responsible for 1/6th of the offensive output for the whole team over a month. Noting that he could only ever be 1/6th of the team on at most goalscoring times, even if he played every minute. Exceptional, in other words. He's doing things on and off the puck to make his line a threat most of the time.
Cole was on the ice for 99 chances in December, including 29 of his own. Both clear highs for a forward on the team. Is it sustainable? Perhaps not the goal completion rate, but for the rest he's shown it's just part of the way he plays -- I'd say yes.
Price
If you look purely on the dome/no dome dichotomy Price did enough to win this nod. I wonder though, did he just do enough enough times, however?
We awarded him the player of the game 4 time in his 13 starts. In those games, Price had a 2-1-1 record with a 1.97 GAA and a 0.935 SV%. Good, but the best in the league post this as their average performance. The flip side were his other 9 games where he was 2-5-2 with a 3.19 GAA and an 0.897 SV%.
It's always hard to fault a goalie and often we give the benefit of the doubt to the player in the last line of defence who has been left to fend for himself. Witness 8 domes for that record in 9 games above. Yet, averages are informative because they help us to spot trends and importantly start to compare against other goalies or past performance.
A crude measure of shot quality is shot location. As you know, Olivier of En Attendant les Nordiques goes far to track this aspect with his scoring chance data. When we filter out missed shots we get high quality shots (or at least shots from high quality locations). This year, I have been doing this and finding that of the shots Price faces, about 42% are of this higher quality. Unfortunately I didn't do this last season, but going on the proportion of missed shots that make the scoring chance record this season (76%), this number is up from last season when he was facing about 36% shots from quality areas. All last season, he'd have been saving about 79% of these shots, identical to this December as it happens.
So, to be absolutely fair to Carey, the evidence is mounting that the Habs have been hanging out to dry.
Diaz
A bit of an honourable mention, perhaps. Diaz, 20-odd games into an NHL career has had a month of great growth actually.
Diaz claimed 6 domes from a possible 12, and tied for the most of any defenceman. We do recall that sometimes this was for not being totally awful, but that is on a par with Price, isn't it?
What specifically drew my eye to Diaz were a few little stats. +2 - Diaz has been rather stingy at ES, a team-leading 1.71. This may be due in part to Carey's heroism or luck when he's been on, but it still stands out. As does his ability to keep chances on net off target (misses or blocks) more than others.
He's also been a big cog on the still putrid (but improving PP). The Habs scored 9 PP goals in December on 55ish PPs. It's not a good percentage, but it's better than before. Diaz's increasing comfort at the point is part of that. It's a shame he can't score, but he does have 6.18 Pts/60 for December, a team high. While he was on, the team scored 9.27 goals per 60 minutes of time as well (or about double the team rate), which was also a team high. Obviously one can't do this conversion and take it seriously, but for fun, this goal rate might convert to a 27.8% efficiency rating (based on an avg PP length of 1:48, or 9 minutes over 5 PPs to score 1 goal).
Lion of November: Erik Cole
Diaz wasn't really in the league of the other two, but that speaks volumes about the team as a whole, doesn't it?
I give the nod to Erik Cole. Price had a good month, but you'd always want to add the words "considering the circumstances" after that statement. Cole just had a good month, even an exceptional one. While team tightening and sways in luck will see this future battle likely go to Price as it did in November, one can't just ignore 9 important goals.
As I've aid, this month's battle was a huge disappointment. Diaz, the legitimate #3 is nowhere near vying for this honour. The two realistic contenders are the same two as November. One must start asking where the rest of the team is.
Cole has very good been individually, but his ability to lead or stir his teammates must come next. Desharnais is producing more than he should/would, but Cole has to be used to somehow now re-infect Plekanec, Pacioretty, Kostitsyn, Cammalleri, Eller, Darche, Moen and eventually Gionta to be something better than average at peak performance.
It's a lot to ask of the free agent Hab, but he'll be doing it for himself. That's because if he wants playoff hockey over this contract, the Habs current group with some fire look the better bet than his old mates in Carolina.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Price vs. Price
40 Games By Stats
Carey Price just played his 40th game of the season on Saturday night. An accomplishment in itself for the oft-beleaguered netminder of 2009. As it happens 40 games provides an interesting point to have a more in-depth look at Carey's stats.
As a whole, we rated Carey as a solid A last week, and heard arguments for A-. Overall, I think we'd all have to admit there's been some brilliant goaltending along the way. That's not to say there aren't lingering concerns from our previous roller coaster seasons with the young goalie. Is this an excellent season? Or did Carey just have one excellent stretch? On to the stats...
The 20-20 dichotomy
The 20th the game of the season was Carey Price's 4th shutout. It propelled him to unthinkable numbers: 2.05 GAA and 0.932 Sv%. It was his 19th dome in 19 starts. 12 wins from 19. Critics, we heard were silenced.
At the turn of the 40th, that 31st save clinched a 22nd win and firmed his above average output of 2.37 in GAA and 0.919 in Sv%. At 40 games it is still critic-silencing stuff. He's a winning goalie challenging in important stats categories. Yet his early excellence prompts some examination.
What does it take to get from 0.932 to 0.919? How many goals a game does a goalie have to allow to slip from 2.05 every 60 minutes to 2.37?
Team output?
This is the favourite of many. While it is certainly true that in some games Carey received incredibly poor support from his teammates. the averages tell us that it went both ways. In fact, if you look below, you can see that the Habs scored more goals, allowed fewer shots and fewer chances over the 20 games. If all else was equal, one might have expected a stabilization in stats, if not an improvement.
Looking at things this way is far too simplistic, i realise. But it remains that this is one of the things to examine in this puzzle. It is not the main part of any explanation it seems, from a quick check at least.
A return to earth?
Some stats, no matter how much we want to believe otherwise, are probably just too good to be true. In stats circles, there's endless talk about regression to the mean (they don't like Tim Thomas all the time). In Carey's case, the stat that stood out like a sore thumb was his SHSv%. Over the years I have kept an eye on these things, and can tell you that anything over 0.850 in this category is exceptional. For a goalie to post 0.917 over a season would thoroughly smash established marks and norms. All to say, it probably wasn't going to last.
Since the 20 game mark, Carey has posted a very very good 0.869 on the PK. However, the return to very good from out of this world is at least partially responsible for the drop in all numbers.
A slip in preparation?
At the beginning of the season (at least after those preseason debacles), I marvelled at Carey Price's preparation. Every game, he would come in and just look an impenetrable fortress. His numbers tell the tale.
Below are two charts. The first shows his stats by period. One can see clearly here that in the first twenty games, Carey was truly outstanding at the beginning of games. Over 0.948 for two periods. The second chart shows the stats I have been tracking on when goals go in. Again, Carey was just amazing at Game 20 here. He was allowing the first goal only after an average of nearly 15 shots were taken (and nearly 7 quality scoring chances) -- this gave him game starting numbers of 0.937 and 0.869 for chances. Both outstanding.
But has something happened? The second twenty show little change in play after the second period, but now Carey is a 0.910ish goalie in the first frames. What's more, he's been allowing goals after just 9 shots instead of 15, and 3.6 chances instead of 6.65, dropping his starting game numbers significantly.
Perhaps this is only luck, or a regression to the mean as well. But I'd swear that he's looked different.
The next 20 games are critical
This is all very interesting, but I don't think this sample answers many questions for us just yet. I find it too difficult to dissect from the numbers just now. The slip in preparation teamed with a return to earth seem most likely to hold the key explanation, but we've yet to see.
The biggest question has to be about what that first stretch of the season was. Was it a pleasant surprise? A fortuitously timed one-off streak? Or was it Carey taking his play to a new level? The next 20 games will help us answer which streak (the incredible one or the latest below average spell of ten games) is the real outlier in his play.
For anyone who watched those first 20-30 games as closely as I did, it is tempting to suggest that the real Carey Price played in October and November. But getting real answers takes time. This is an interim update, the final analysis is yet to come.
As a whole, we rated Carey as a solid A last week, and heard arguments for A-. Overall, I think we'd all have to admit there's been some brilliant goaltending along the way. That's not to say there aren't lingering concerns from our previous roller coaster seasons with the young goalie. Is this an excellent season? Or did Carey just have one excellent stretch? On to the stats...
The 20-20 dichotomy
The 20th the game of the season was Carey Price's 4th shutout. It propelled him to unthinkable numbers: 2.05 GAA and 0.932 Sv%. It was his 19th dome in 19 starts. 12 wins from 19. Critics, we heard were silenced.
At the turn of the 40th, that 31st save clinched a 22nd win and firmed his above average output of 2.37 in GAA and 0.919 in Sv%. At 40 games it is still critic-silencing stuff. He's a winning goalie challenging in important stats categories. Yet his early excellence prompts some examination.
What does it take to get from 0.932 to 0.919? How many goals a game does a goalie have to allow to slip from 2.05 every 60 minutes to 2.37?
Team output?
This is the favourite of many. While it is certainly true that in some games Carey received incredibly poor support from his teammates. the averages tell us that it went both ways. In fact, if you look below, you can see that the Habs scored more goals, allowed fewer shots and fewer chances over the 20 games. If all else was equal, one might have expected a stabilization in stats, if not an improvement.
Looking at things this way is far too simplistic, i realise. But it remains that this is one of the things to examine in this puzzle. It is not the main part of any explanation it seems, from a quick check at least.
A return to earth?
Some stats, no matter how much we want to believe otherwise, are probably just too good to be true. In stats circles, there's endless talk about regression to the mean (they don't like Tim Thomas all the time). In Carey's case, the stat that stood out like a sore thumb was his SHSv%. Over the years I have kept an eye on these things, and can tell you that anything over 0.850 in this category is exceptional. For a goalie to post 0.917 over a season would thoroughly smash established marks and norms. All to say, it probably wasn't going to last.
Since the 20 game mark, Carey has posted a very very good 0.869 on the PK. However, the return to very good from out of this world is at least partially responsible for the drop in all numbers.
A slip in preparation?
At the beginning of the season (at least after those preseason debacles), I marvelled at Carey Price's preparation. Every game, he would come in and just look an impenetrable fortress. His numbers tell the tale.
Below are two charts. The first shows his stats by period. One can see clearly here that in the first twenty games, Carey was truly outstanding at the beginning of games. Over 0.948 for two periods. The second chart shows the stats I have been tracking on when goals go in. Again, Carey was just amazing at Game 20 here. He was allowing the first goal only after an average of nearly 15 shots were taken (and nearly 7 quality scoring chances) -- this gave him game starting numbers of 0.937 and 0.869 for chances. Both outstanding.
But has something happened? The second twenty show little change in play after the second period, but now Carey is a 0.910ish goalie in the first frames. What's more, he's been allowing goals after just 9 shots instead of 15, and 3.6 chances instead of 6.65, dropping his starting game numbers significantly.
Perhaps this is only luck, or a regression to the mean as well. But I'd swear that he's looked different.
The next 20 games are critical
This is all very interesting, but I don't think this sample answers many questions for us just yet. I find it too difficult to dissect from the numbers just now. The slip in preparation teamed with a return to earth seem most likely to hold the key explanation, but we've yet to see.
The biggest question has to be about what that first stretch of the season was. Was it a pleasant surprise? A fortuitously timed one-off streak? Or was it Carey taking his play to a new level? The next 20 games will help us answer which streak (the incredible one or the latest below average spell of ten games) is the real outlier in his play.
For anyone who watched those first 20-30 games as closely as I did, it is tempting to suggest that the real Carey Price played in October and November. But getting real answers takes time. This is an interim update, the final analysis is yet to come.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Carey Price Recognized For Sensational Week
We've been waiting for Carey Price to step up and answer Jaroslav Halak for some time. When Jaro came in to the net, he usually left a window for the replaced starter. There were times when Carey answered, but it has rarely been as emphatic as this.
Now, a couple of weeks after Jaro Halak was setting the chatlines alight with his NHL recognized work in October, Carey has answered with a first star nod from the NHL.
There's not much I can say that will speak louder than the statistics, so I'll just lay some of those out for you.
This is what you know already. 3 wins, a shutout, and some pretty heady numbers.
Broken down by period, you can see his success in a different way. Last season, there were no shutouts, and not all that many shutout periods either. 7 shutout periods, including the pivotal three shutout third periods allowed his team to reel in the victories.
Finally, some extra stats from the stats that I keep kicking around. His profile by chances on net (scoring chances with misses and blocked shots removed). You can see it's still extremely heady numbers here. Even more so when you account for the fact that good in scoring chance world is in the 0.800's.
The other two stats show shots before a goal was allowed (SBG) and the save percentage based on that number (starting save percentage). It's difficult for goalies to come in and put up high numbers consistently right from the start of a game, 0.952 is just about as good as it gets.
All in all, a good week for Carey. He certainly headed off any challengers for the next Molson Cup, and will probably wrap up the season title any day now at this rate.
Now, a couple of weeks after Jaro Halak was setting the chatlines alight with his NHL recognized work in October, Carey has answered with a first star nod from the NHL.
There's not much I can say that will speak louder than the statistics, so I'll just lay some of those out for you.
This is what you know already. 3 wins, a shutout, and some pretty heady numbers.
Broken down by period, you can see his success in a different way. Last season, there were no shutouts, and not all that many shutout periods either. 7 shutout periods, including the pivotal three shutout third periods allowed his team to reel in the victories.
Finally, some extra stats from the stats that I keep kicking around. His profile by chances on net (scoring chances with misses and blocked shots removed). You can see it's still extremely heady numbers here. Even more so when you account for the fact that good in scoring chance world is in the 0.800's.
The other two stats show shots before a goal was allowed (SBG) and the save percentage based on that number (starting save percentage). It's difficult for goalies to come in and put up high numbers consistently right from the start of a game, 0.952 is just about as good as it gets.
All in all, a good week for Carey. He certainly headed off any challengers for the next Molson Cup, and will probably wrap up the season title any day now at this rate.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Negotiating On Price:
Habs New Arguments
Price and his agent have played their opening gambit (in our imaginations)and the Canadiens have answered (in our imaginations again). I think we can all agree that unless Gauthier comes up with some stats wizardry or another #1 goalie, the Price team is looking good to pull salary towards their notion of fair dues.
The negotiation now turns to Gauthier and his team to argue the negative (or if they're inventive, the positive) so the salary cap burden of Price is more what they had in mind when they thought he would be the much cheaper option.
[Remember that for these mock purposes, we're assuming that Carey Price’s team is for $3 million as per HabsWorld's uncited "report" (1 to 3 years) and that the Habs are coutering with $1.7 million (2 to 4 years).]
Habs arguments
Other stats
Have you met our new numbers man, Ken Morin? He was only officially hired yesterday, but he came with some numbers in hand which we thought would be handy for these discussions.
You mentioned a 0.912 save percentage. We fully acknowledge that number, but would like to say right off the bat that we don’t exclude playoffs from our analyses, so we’ll be going ahead with a 0.910 number, just so you know.
Just a quick look at other stats from this season. You already mentioned Carey’s 0.912 from the season which ranked him 21st in the league. We’d like to just highlight a few stats to add context:
(min 16 GP)
41 GP (33rd)
39 GS (32nd)
13 W (37th)
0.33 W per start (55th)
0.33 W per 60 min (54th)
2.77 GAA (36th)
0 SO (T 48th)
You present Carey as an established starter with top 20 numbers. Based on what we see, we think he is right where he should be, but is still a developing youngster climbing the ranks. We think it would be fair to pay him as such.
Trends
We have addressed a lot so far, but a common element of 2nd contract negotiations has been conspicuously absent from these talks. Usually, we can all look at a player and draw upward trends. We find the talk about pedigree a bit disingenuous when we consider the decline since season one with Carey.
Our analysis reveals that since his 48th game in the NHL (the 7th game in the 2008 Boston series), where Carey was a 2.49, 0.920 goalie, he has but for very brief bumps been declining or standing still. If this were game 92 we were talking about, there wouldn’t be any reason for concern, but this is 106 games later now – 2 entire NHL seasons.
From game 49 to game 108 (last game of 2009) Carey declined to a 2.76, 0.910 goalie. Since that time, he has stemmed the decline but only to maintain that level.
Again, we are not suggesting this is anyway abnormal for a young goalie, but suggest that paying Carey as a seasoned pro, or a near-elite at this stage is off the mark. He is learning, but learning slowly. We also hope and assume there is still learning to be done and that he’ll be working on this into the upcoming season, if not beyond. As such, we don’t think we should be paying the price as he were the finished article.
Save percentage breakdown
M. Morin has been doing some excellent work, he really has. He has showed us a lot about how to look at save percentage. That is, to see how a goalie comes to his 91% of shots saved.
When we look at when goals are scored, we can see a massive gulf in between what goaltender we get at the beginning of a game compared to the end. Whereas, after a goal is allowed, Carey is on par with those you say are his peers (2.53, 0.920), for the start of games, he has an entirely different set of peers (3.30, 0.892).
Again we’re fully on board with the learning and will support Carey as long as it takes. But this is taken from this past season, and is further evidence of the fact that learning is not done. We think this bolsters our suggestion that paying for the finished article at this point is premature.
Support
Throughout his career until now, we have provided Carey with the best support and opportunities ever afforded to a goaltender of his age. We have showed our support by trading Halak and by signing in a veteran back up willing and able to support 60 games from Carey.
We continue to show this support and will do as he continues to learn his trade at this high level. Knowing Carey the way we do, and knowing what he needs from our years together, we think we offer him the best environment there is to thrive at the moment.
Opportunity
Currently Montreal stands as one of two teams (if we assume Huet and Niemi haven’t been settled on) where there is a starting position. Rather than looking on starts as a burden, we think starts are an asset to your client. We don’t think he can get this opportunity anywhere else in the NHL at the present time.
In the balance
Gauthier digs deep here. But is it enough to overcome the fact he chose Price long ago and would rely on Auld and an AHLer if Price were to opt out?
The negotiation now turns to Gauthier and his team to argue the negative (or if they're inventive, the positive) so the salary cap burden of Price is more what they had in mind when they thought he would be the much cheaper option.
[Remember that for these mock purposes, we're assuming that Carey Price’s team is for $3 million as per HabsWorld's uncited "report" (1 to 3 years) and that the Habs are coutering with $1.7 million (2 to 4 years).]
Habs arguments
Other stats
Have you met our new numbers man, Ken Morin? He was only officially hired yesterday, but he came with some numbers in hand which we thought would be handy for these discussions.
You mentioned a 0.912 save percentage. We fully acknowledge that number, but would like to say right off the bat that we don’t exclude playoffs from our analyses, so we’ll be going ahead with a 0.910 number, just so you know.
Just a quick look at other stats from this season. You already mentioned Carey’s 0.912 from the season which ranked him 21st in the league. We’d like to just highlight a few stats to add context:
(min 16 GP)
41 GP (33rd)
39 GS (32nd)
13 W (37th)
0.33 W per start (55th)
0.33 W per 60 min (54th)
2.77 GAA (36th)
0 SO (T 48th)
You present Carey as an established starter with top 20 numbers. Based on what we see, we think he is right where he should be, but is still a developing youngster climbing the ranks. We think it would be fair to pay him as such.
Trends
We have addressed a lot so far, but a common element of 2nd contract negotiations has been conspicuously absent from these talks. Usually, we can all look at a player and draw upward trends. We find the talk about pedigree a bit disingenuous when we consider the decline since season one with Carey.
Our analysis reveals that since his 48th game in the NHL (the 7th game in the 2008 Boston series), where Carey was a 2.49, 0.920 goalie, he has but for very brief bumps been declining or standing still. If this were game 92 we were talking about, there wouldn’t be any reason for concern, but this is 106 games later now – 2 entire NHL seasons.
From game 49 to game 108 (last game of 2009) Carey declined to a 2.76, 0.910 goalie. Since that time, he has stemmed the decline but only to maintain that level.
Again, we are not suggesting this is anyway abnormal for a young goalie, but suggest that paying Carey as a seasoned pro, or a near-elite at this stage is off the mark. He is learning, but learning slowly. We also hope and assume there is still learning to be done and that he’ll be working on this into the upcoming season, if not beyond. As such, we don’t think we should be paying the price as he were the finished article.
Save percentage breakdown
M. Morin has been doing some excellent work, he really has. He has showed us a lot about how to look at save percentage. That is, to see how a goalie comes to his 91% of shots saved.
When we look at when goals are scored, we can see a massive gulf in between what goaltender we get at the beginning of a game compared to the end. Whereas, after a goal is allowed, Carey is on par with those you say are his peers (2.53, 0.920), for the start of games, he has an entirely different set of peers (3.30, 0.892).
Again we’re fully on board with the learning and will support Carey as long as it takes. But this is taken from this past season, and is further evidence of the fact that learning is not done. We think this bolsters our suggestion that paying for the finished article at this point is premature.
Support
Throughout his career until now, we have provided Carey with the best support and opportunities ever afforded to a goaltender of his age. We have showed our support by trading Halak and by signing in a veteran back up willing and able to support 60 games from Carey.
We continue to show this support and will do as he continues to learn his trade at this high level. Knowing Carey the way we do, and knowing what he needs from our years together, we think we offer him the best environment there is to thrive at the moment.
Opportunity
Currently Montreal stands as one of two teams (if we assume Huet and Niemi haven’t been settled on) where there is a starting position. Rather than looking on starts as a burden, we think starts are an asset to your client. We don’t think he can get this opportunity anywhere else in the NHL at the present time.
In the balance
Gauthier digs deep here. But is it enough to overcome the fact he chose Price long ago and would rely on Auld and an AHLer if Price were to opt out?
Monday, December 14, 2009
Why Are Buffalo Where We Want To Be?
Take a look at the standings. Your Habs are in eighth position.
Montreal fans don't seem to do well with the prospect of an actual marathon race. They don't mind 82 games, but prefer to sprint out in front and coast home, if at all possible. All this jostling is fraying for the nerves.
So take another look at the standings. There are teams who've sprinted ahead for one reason or another, there are teams that provide their fans with a level of comfort about what will happen in the standings this season, about what will happen any given night.
One of those teams happens to be leading our division – the Buffalo Sabres.
This can't be right, can it? The Sabres? They haven't fired a GM in a decade. Heck, they haven't even fired a coach in a decade. They never get a high draft pick, they never sign big free agents and they often lose their own stars for what usually amounts to nothing.
The Sabres are ahead of us? The Sabres are where we want to be?
One has to ask: Why?
Last summer, the Sabres went the opposite route to the Habs. While Gainey was busy replacing the players that left Montreal with free agents, the Sabres have done what they have done since time immermorial and called the Rochester Americans. Two 41-win teams taking very different routes to start a season. Is this why?
It certainly is tempting to point to this reasoning as the creator of said gap in the standings. Consistency over shuffle, development over hostile acquisition. There are a few who would reach at this to back up their instinct that Gainey lost his mind in the summer. I think that would be wrong. For every Gomez, there has been a Cammalleri in Montreal. The Sabres don't yet have a 10-goal man, you can't tell me they wouldn't have wanted one in place of say Mike Grier? We are in position to know that Spacek can be a good D to have around, even more so when you consider he fit right in Buffalo.
No, it's not the summer strategy...
Perhaps then it is the Sabres balanced approach to team offense and defence that sets them apart from the Canadiens.
Another low-hanging fruit, and certainly one the media spins out to no end. You know what though? Buffalo as a team has been allowing more than 30 shots a game this year just like Montreal. Their 30.5 shots against vs. our 31.6 for every 60 minutes is probably not the cause of the 7-point spread with games in hand.
Nor is offense their secret. They've scored more goals per game than the Habs, but fewer overall thus far. We have a better PP than them as well.
Look again at the standings. One thing might stand out more now: goals against. That check for the supposition above showed that it wasn't Rivet and his amazing compatriots guarding the Buffalo net in unison, yet the Sabres have allowed 30 fewer goals in 30 fewer games.
Ryan Miller...
Now I'm done with my silly introduction, I bring you to the answer all hockey fans knew as soon as they read the title. Ryan Miller is the answer.
To this point in the season, Ryan Miller is leading the league with a 1.83 GAA and an unworldly 0.939 save %. He has 18 wins in his 26 starts, to go along with 4 shutouts. 2 games ago he shutout the mighty Capitals who directed 35 shots his way.
The Canadiens for their part have Carey Price, who is indeed hot again. I thought it would be interesting to show you the difference between a goalie playing very well (Carey) and a goalie playing absolutely out of his head (Ryan). For fairness, I have only taken games from November 1st on, since before that time Carey was a bit of a basketcase – thereby making a comparison of their better play.
Impressed yet?
So as you settle in to watch Buffalo tonight be kind to Montreal skaters. They are facing a Buffalo opponent not seen since the late 1990s with a save percentage like that. Perhaps it is a bubble waiting to be burst, perhaps not.
Let's also hope Carey gets plenty of time to sit back and watch while his teammates test Miller adequately. He could use the rest and might learn some important lessons from a guy who has been showing that clicking on all cylinders for an extended period is possible.
Montreal fans don't seem to do well with the prospect of an actual marathon race. They don't mind 82 games, but prefer to sprint out in front and coast home, if at all possible. All this jostling is fraying for the nerves.
So take another look at the standings. There are teams who've sprinted ahead for one reason or another, there are teams that provide their fans with a level of comfort about what will happen in the standings this season, about what will happen any given night.
One of those teams happens to be leading our division – the Buffalo Sabres.
This can't be right, can it? The Sabres? They haven't fired a GM in a decade. Heck, they haven't even fired a coach in a decade. They never get a high draft pick, they never sign big free agents and they often lose their own stars for what usually amounts to nothing.
The Sabres are ahead of us? The Sabres are where we want to be?
One has to ask: Why?
Last summer, the Sabres went the opposite route to the Habs. While Gainey was busy replacing the players that left Montreal with free agents, the Sabres have done what they have done since time immermorial and called the Rochester Americans. Two 41-win teams taking very different routes to start a season. Is this why?
It certainly is tempting to point to this reasoning as the creator of said gap in the standings. Consistency over shuffle, development over hostile acquisition. There are a few who would reach at this to back up their instinct that Gainey lost his mind in the summer. I think that would be wrong. For every Gomez, there has been a Cammalleri in Montreal. The Sabres don't yet have a 10-goal man, you can't tell me they wouldn't have wanted one in place of say Mike Grier? We are in position to know that Spacek can be a good D to have around, even more so when you consider he fit right in Buffalo.
No, it's not the summer strategy...
Perhaps then it is the Sabres balanced approach to team offense and defence that sets them apart from the Canadiens.
Another low-hanging fruit, and certainly one the media spins out to no end. You know what though? Buffalo as a team has been allowing more than 30 shots a game this year just like Montreal. Their 30.5 shots against vs. our 31.6 for every 60 minutes is probably not the cause of the 7-point spread with games in hand.
Nor is offense their secret. They've scored more goals per game than the Habs, but fewer overall thus far. We have a better PP than them as well.
Look again at the standings. One thing might stand out more now: goals against. That check for the supposition above showed that it wasn't Rivet and his amazing compatriots guarding the Buffalo net in unison, yet the Sabres have allowed 30 fewer goals in 30 fewer games.
Ryan Miller...
Now I'm done with my silly introduction, I bring you to the answer all hockey fans knew as soon as they read the title. Ryan Miller is the answer.
To this point in the season, Ryan Miller is leading the league with a 1.83 GAA and an unworldly 0.939 save %. He has 18 wins in his 26 starts, to go along with 4 shutouts. 2 games ago he shutout the mighty Capitals who directed 35 shots his way.
The Canadiens for their part have Carey Price, who is indeed hot again. I thought it would be interesting to show you the difference between a goalie playing very well (Carey) and a goalie playing absolutely out of his head (Ryan). For fairness, I have only taken games from November 1st on, since before that time Carey was a bit of a basketcase – thereby making a comparison of their better play.
| Carey Price | Ryan Miller | Miller differential | |
| Games played | 16 | 16 | 0 GP |
| Record | 7-6-3 | 10-5-1 | 3W, 4 Pts |
| GA | 40 | 29 | -11 GA |
| GAA | 2.46 | 1.82 | -0.64 GA/G |
| SA | 517 | 486 | -31 SA |
| S% | 0.922 | 0.940 | 0.018 (=9 GA) |
| S0 | 0 | 3 | 3 SO |
| GF by team | 41 | 41 | 0 GF |
| 1-goal wins | 3 | 3 | 0 W |
| ≥30 SA | 0.500 | 0.667 | +0.167 |
| <30> | 0.625 | 0.643 | +0.018 |
| Best S% | 0.977 | 1.000 | +0.023 |
| Worst S% | 0.833 | 0.783 | -0.050 |
Impressed yet?
So as you settle in to watch Buffalo tonight be kind to Montreal skaters. They are facing a Buffalo opponent not seen since the late 1990s with a save percentage like that. Perhaps it is a bubble waiting to be burst, perhaps not.
Let's also hope Carey gets plenty of time to sit back and watch while his teammates test Miller adequately. He could use the rest and might learn some important lessons from a guy who has been showing that clicking on all cylinders for an extended period is possible.
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