Another big response from readers on this. Thanks again.
Obviously trades from these positions are more difficult given the injury-a-game pace the team is maintaining. Even so, it seems the masses have had enough of Picard and perhaps even Auld (a bit puzzled with that one). The clearest messages are that Subban and Price are strictly "hands off". That's just good sense.
To play the devil's advocate, though. Are we all very very sure that this isn't a high point where cashing in on a player might not bring back a better one?
The only other slight surprise for me was Yannick Weber's near-average vote. Most seem indifferent to him. Perhaps Subban and (hopefully) Markov make him expendable?
Once again, those who haven't voted and still wish to, the poll is still open (I will keep updating the stats, perhaps to publish again closer to the deadline):
Showing posts with label Goaltender. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Goaltender. Show all posts
Friday, February 18, 2011
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Canadiens Deadline Assets
Defence and Goalies
Had a good round of voting on the forwards. The results are in.
But there are plenty more assets to get through. Round two is the defence corps (including injuries - use imagination for these) and goalies.
But there are plenty more assets to get through. Round two is the defence corps (including injuries - use imagination for these) and goalies.
Friday, February 04, 2011
The Three Pillars Of Habs Defence
When you want to build something right, you want to be using pillars. Ancient buildings, even the religions they were built for are more often than not founded on pillars, stone or metaphoric.
The 1970s Canadiens were built on three big important pillars: The Big Three. The current Canadiens too are built on three important and often underappreciated pillars: Hal Gill, Roman Hamrlik and Jaroslav Spacek.
Reasonable fans everywhere set realistic expectation of impending disaster this last summer. A team that had struggled to keep shots down without Markov had lost the reason most of those shots did not pierce the armour. Without Halak, and Markov on extended rehab, the feeling was dour enough, had these fans known that Markov would play but 7 games of the season and be rehabbing a second injury by December, I think the mood would have gone south rather than anywhere else.
But reasonable fans have been wrong before. They were wrong about this. Nearly three months after losing Markov (again), and nearly two month after losing Gorges as well, the Canadiens are still well placed among the defensive standard bearers of the league.
With a 2.42 GAA they sit 6th in the league. 30.0 shots against places them 15th. And their 84.2% on the PK is seventh best. This may not blow your minds, but know that these are both the best numbers and ranks that any Canadiens team since the lockout has posted – in every category. This is the best defensive edition of the Canadiens in some time.
Every time people drool over defences a couple of discussion topics rise to the top: coaching and goaltending. Jacques Martin’s system must deserve some credit, and Carey price has found a way to dominate at times, yet they must not get all the credit. Because for all the simple game plans, the players have to execute and commit to execution, and all the goaltending talent in the world still oozes goals behind a porous defensive line.
Some credit has to go to the Three Pillars: Gill, Hamrlik and Spacek.
In recent game reviews, we have alluded to their importance, but never really drilled to the point. In recognition of their lack of recognition generally, I want to remind everyone why we should still all be thankful that these three pillars prop up the structure in which Weber and Subban can learn, and based on which the Canadiens have been amassing wins.
1) They offer a first piece for building a unit
These three players have the highest minutes played at even strength of all Montreal Canadiens. On this team, without Markov and Gorges, it is clear the Jacques Martin considers the two defenders he will have on the ice and starts by putting one of each of the pillars at all times. Between the three of them, they probably offer coverage for the entire game, save a few powerplay minutes.
This is a great value to Martin, because he can be sure that at all times he’ll have a veteran player who has played in the vast majority of situations before. A system cannot be built on uncertainty, and while they have their occasional slips, Gill Hamrlik and Spacek at least provide some certainty that a system will be understood and applied throughout the games.
2) They do the complementary work, whatever it is
More than anything what impresses me about these three players has been the adaptability and their willingness to concede their previous duties to accept mundane ones, all in aid of the team. In an age where it’s not uncommon to have locker room rifts over ice time, it’s surely a relief to see Spacek taking his reduced minutes in stride, to see Gill happily in and out of first shadow pairs role and Hamrlik to concede lots of offensive opportunities to his new partner.
Rather than making their new partners change to fit with them, the vets are changing to make the best partnership on common strengths. The dividends are being paid by all three of Wisniewski, Subban and Weber, who talented themselves, would still struggle if made to play entirely unfamiliar hockey to accommodate another.
The pride of the Pillars seems to be entirely now in the winning and less in the minutiae of making breakout passes themselves or getting first PP minutes. This, I suggest, is not a pervasive virtue in the NHL these days. Certainly not on teams with lesser defensive records.
3) They offer a good example
All of that which I mentioned is good example. More than that, these three seem to be relishing their roles as mentors and guides to their young partners. Gill can be seen talking with Subban and Weber seems to be learning from Spacek. One can only assume that this would extend at least as far as the locker room, if not further off the ice.
While it is right that we continue to get excited about Subban and what promise he represents to the team, that we mention Weber’s improvement every game and how Wisniewski has been a great addition; it is also good to remember the other half of the equation. Those solid, sometimes boring, Dmen that are allowing this bloom to happen. To Gill, Hamrlik and Spacek, three pillars this team could not do without.
The 1970s Canadiens were built on three big important pillars: The Big Three. The current Canadiens too are built on three important and often underappreciated pillars: Hal Gill, Roman Hamrlik and Jaroslav Spacek.
Reasonable fans everywhere set realistic expectation of impending disaster this last summer. A team that had struggled to keep shots down without Markov had lost the reason most of those shots did not pierce the armour. Without Halak, and Markov on extended rehab, the feeling was dour enough, had these fans known that Markov would play but 7 games of the season and be rehabbing a second injury by December, I think the mood would have gone south rather than anywhere else.
But reasonable fans have been wrong before. They were wrong about this. Nearly three months after losing Markov (again), and nearly two month after losing Gorges as well, the Canadiens are still well placed among the defensive standard bearers of the league.
With a 2.42 GAA they sit 6th in the league. 30.0 shots against places them 15th. And their 84.2% on the PK is seventh best. This may not blow your minds, but know that these are both the best numbers and ranks that any Canadiens team since the lockout has posted – in every category. This is the best defensive edition of the Canadiens in some time.
Every time people drool over defences a couple of discussion topics rise to the top: coaching and goaltending. Jacques Martin’s system must deserve some credit, and Carey price has found a way to dominate at times, yet they must not get all the credit. Because for all the simple game plans, the players have to execute and commit to execution, and all the goaltending talent in the world still oozes goals behind a porous defensive line.
Some credit has to go to the Three Pillars: Gill, Hamrlik and Spacek.
In recent game reviews, we have alluded to their importance, but never really drilled to the point. In recognition of their lack of recognition generally, I want to remind everyone why we should still all be thankful that these three pillars prop up the structure in which Weber and Subban can learn, and based on which the Canadiens have been amassing wins.
1) They offer a first piece for building a unit
These three players have the highest minutes played at even strength of all Montreal Canadiens. On this team, without Markov and Gorges, it is clear the Jacques Martin considers the two defenders he will have on the ice and starts by putting one of each of the pillars at all times. Between the three of them, they probably offer coverage for the entire game, save a few powerplay minutes.
This is a great value to Martin, because he can be sure that at all times he’ll have a veteran player who has played in the vast majority of situations before. A system cannot be built on uncertainty, and while they have their occasional slips, Gill Hamrlik and Spacek at least provide some certainty that a system will be understood and applied throughout the games.
2) They do the complementary work, whatever it is
More than anything what impresses me about these three players has been the adaptability and their willingness to concede their previous duties to accept mundane ones, all in aid of the team. In an age where it’s not uncommon to have locker room rifts over ice time, it’s surely a relief to see Spacek taking his reduced minutes in stride, to see Gill happily in and out of first shadow pairs role and Hamrlik to concede lots of offensive opportunities to his new partner.
Rather than making their new partners change to fit with them, the vets are changing to make the best partnership on common strengths. The dividends are being paid by all three of Wisniewski, Subban and Weber, who talented themselves, would still struggle if made to play entirely unfamiliar hockey to accommodate another.
The pride of the Pillars seems to be entirely now in the winning and less in the minutiae of making breakout passes themselves or getting first PP minutes. This, I suggest, is not a pervasive virtue in the NHL these days. Certainly not on teams with lesser defensive records.
3) They offer a good example
All of that which I mentioned is good example. More than that, these three seem to be relishing their roles as mentors and guides to their young partners. Gill can be seen talking with Subban and Weber seems to be learning from Spacek. One can only assume that this would extend at least as far as the locker room, if not further off the ice.
While it is right that we continue to get excited about Subban and what promise he represents to the team, that we mention Weber’s improvement every game and how Wisniewski has been a great addition; it is also good to remember the other half of the equation. Those solid, sometimes boring, Dmen that are allowing this bloom to happen. To Gill, Hamrlik and Spacek, three pillars this team could not do without.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Price vs. Price
40 Games By Stats
Carey Price just played his 40th game of the season on Saturday night. An accomplishment in itself for the oft-beleaguered netminder of 2009. As it happens 40 games provides an interesting point to have a more in-depth look at Carey's stats.
As a whole, we rated Carey as a solid A last week, and heard arguments for A-. Overall, I think we'd all have to admit there's been some brilliant goaltending along the way. That's not to say there aren't lingering concerns from our previous roller coaster seasons with the young goalie. Is this an excellent season? Or did Carey just have one excellent stretch? On to the stats...
The 20-20 dichotomy
The 20th the game of the season was Carey Price's 4th shutout. It propelled him to unthinkable numbers: 2.05 GAA and 0.932 Sv%. It was his 19th dome in 19 starts. 12 wins from 19. Critics, we heard were silenced.
At the turn of the 40th, that 31st save clinched a 22nd win and firmed his above average output of 2.37 in GAA and 0.919 in Sv%. At 40 games it is still critic-silencing stuff. He's a winning goalie challenging in important stats categories. Yet his early excellence prompts some examination.
What does it take to get from 0.932 to 0.919? How many goals a game does a goalie have to allow to slip from 2.05 every 60 minutes to 2.37?
Team output?
This is the favourite of many. While it is certainly true that in some games Carey received incredibly poor support from his teammates. the averages tell us that it went both ways. In fact, if you look below, you can see that the Habs scored more goals, allowed fewer shots and fewer chances over the 20 games. If all else was equal, one might have expected a stabilization in stats, if not an improvement.
Looking at things this way is far too simplistic, i realise. But it remains that this is one of the things to examine in this puzzle. It is not the main part of any explanation it seems, from a quick check at least.
A return to earth?
Some stats, no matter how much we want to believe otherwise, are probably just too good to be true. In stats circles, there's endless talk about regression to the mean (they don't like Tim Thomas all the time). In Carey's case, the stat that stood out like a sore thumb was his SHSv%. Over the years I have kept an eye on these things, and can tell you that anything over 0.850 in this category is exceptional. For a goalie to post 0.917 over a season would thoroughly smash established marks and norms. All to say, it probably wasn't going to last.
Since the 20 game mark, Carey has posted a very very good 0.869 on the PK. However, the return to very good from out of this world is at least partially responsible for the drop in all numbers.
A slip in preparation?
At the beginning of the season (at least after those preseason debacles), I marvelled at Carey Price's preparation. Every game, he would come in and just look an impenetrable fortress. His numbers tell the tale.
Below are two charts. The first shows his stats by period. One can see clearly here that in the first twenty games, Carey was truly outstanding at the beginning of games. Over 0.948 for two periods. The second chart shows the stats I have been tracking on when goals go in. Again, Carey was just amazing at Game 20 here. He was allowing the first goal only after an average of nearly 15 shots were taken (and nearly 7 quality scoring chances) -- this gave him game starting numbers of 0.937 and 0.869 for chances. Both outstanding.
But has something happened? The second twenty show little change in play after the second period, but now Carey is a 0.910ish goalie in the first frames. What's more, he's been allowing goals after just 9 shots instead of 15, and 3.6 chances instead of 6.65, dropping his starting game numbers significantly.
Perhaps this is only luck, or a regression to the mean as well. But I'd swear that he's looked different.
The next 20 games are critical
This is all very interesting, but I don't think this sample answers many questions for us just yet. I find it too difficult to dissect from the numbers just now. The slip in preparation teamed with a return to earth seem most likely to hold the key explanation, but we've yet to see.
The biggest question has to be about what that first stretch of the season was. Was it a pleasant surprise? A fortuitously timed one-off streak? Or was it Carey taking his play to a new level? The next 20 games will help us answer which streak (the incredible one or the latest below average spell of ten games) is the real outlier in his play.
For anyone who watched those first 20-30 games as closely as I did, it is tempting to suggest that the real Carey Price played in October and November. But getting real answers takes time. This is an interim update, the final analysis is yet to come.
As a whole, we rated Carey as a solid A last week, and heard arguments for A-. Overall, I think we'd all have to admit there's been some brilliant goaltending along the way. That's not to say there aren't lingering concerns from our previous roller coaster seasons with the young goalie. Is this an excellent season? Or did Carey just have one excellent stretch? On to the stats...
The 20-20 dichotomy
The 20th the game of the season was Carey Price's 4th shutout. It propelled him to unthinkable numbers: 2.05 GAA and 0.932 Sv%. It was his 19th dome in 19 starts. 12 wins from 19. Critics, we heard were silenced.
At the turn of the 40th, that 31st save clinched a 22nd win and firmed his above average output of 2.37 in GAA and 0.919 in Sv%. At 40 games it is still critic-silencing stuff. He's a winning goalie challenging in important stats categories. Yet his early excellence prompts some examination.
What does it take to get from 0.932 to 0.919? How many goals a game does a goalie have to allow to slip from 2.05 every 60 minutes to 2.37?
Team output?
This is the favourite of many. While it is certainly true that in some games Carey received incredibly poor support from his teammates. the averages tell us that it went both ways. In fact, if you look below, you can see that the Habs scored more goals, allowed fewer shots and fewer chances over the 20 games. If all else was equal, one might have expected a stabilization in stats, if not an improvement.
Looking at things this way is far too simplistic, i realise. But it remains that this is one of the things to examine in this puzzle. It is not the main part of any explanation it seems, from a quick check at least.
A return to earth?
Some stats, no matter how much we want to believe otherwise, are probably just too good to be true. In stats circles, there's endless talk about regression to the mean (they don't like Tim Thomas all the time). In Carey's case, the stat that stood out like a sore thumb was his SHSv%. Over the years I have kept an eye on these things, and can tell you that anything over 0.850 in this category is exceptional. For a goalie to post 0.917 over a season would thoroughly smash established marks and norms. All to say, it probably wasn't going to last.
Since the 20 game mark, Carey has posted a very very good 0.869 on the PK. However, the return to very good from out of this world is at least partially responsible for the drop in all numbers.
A slip in preparation?
At the beginning of the season (at least after those preseason debacles), I marvelled at Carey Price's preparation. Every game, he would come in and just look an impenetrable fortress. His numbers tell the tale.
Below are two charts. The first shows his stats by period. One can see clearly here that in the first twenty games, Carey was truly outstanding at the beginning of games. Over 0.948 for two periods. The second chart shows the stats I have been tracking on when goals go in. Again, Carey was just amazing at Game 20 here. He was allowing the first goal only after an average of nearly 15 shots were taken (and nearly 7 quality scoring chances) -- this gave him game starting numbers of 0.937 and 0.869 for chances. Both outstanding.
But has something happened? The second twenty show little change in play after the second period, but now Carey is a 0.910ish goalie in the first frames. What's more, he's been allowing goals after just 9 shots instead of 15, and 3.6 chances instead of 6.65, dropping his starting game numbers significantly.
Perhaps this is only luck, or a regression to the mean as well. But I'd swear that he's looked different.
The next 20 games are critical
This is all very interesting, but I don't think this sample answers many questions for us just yet. I find it too difficult to dissect from the numbers just now. The slip in preparation teamed with a return to earth seem most likely to hold the key explanation, but we've yet to see.
The biggest question has to be about what that first stretch of the season was. Was it a pleasant surprise? A fortuitously timed one-off streak? Or was it Carey taking his play to a new level? The next 20 games will help us answer which streak (the incredible one or the latest below average spell of ten games) is the real outlier in his play.
For anyone who watched those first 20-30 games as closely as I did, it is tempting to suggest that the real Carey Price played in October and November. But getting real answers takes time. This is an interim update, the final analysis is yet to come.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
The Need For A New Cup
Today, we got the "surprise" news that Carey Price will be receiving the Molson Cup for the second consecutive time. It was even less of a surprise this year, because of the new system of voting.
Carey Price is very much deserving of the Award from November, and he'd have won it with any form of voting and tabulation. I have no issue with the award going to him this month, this year (he's probably got enough votes in the bank already with the new voting system!).
I do, however, take issue with the Molson Cup as a whole.
In reality, the award might as well be given on the basis of a vote on the final day of the season:
"Who should win the Cup? The goalie or the leading point getter?"
Cynical? Only because it's true.
Since Wikipedia records begin on this award, it has been given to 37 different Canadiens. 37 chances to honour the player of the year. In that time, the award has been given 16 times to a goalie and 20 times to a forward. 13 times the forward was the high scorer, 2 times the top goalscorer, 3 times second in scoring.
There were a total of 2 forwards who weren't at the very top, and a single defenceman honoured from a list of alumni that includes the Big Three (Robinson, Savard and Lapointe), Langway, Chelios and now Markov.
Around the Canadian teams, it's been largely the same story.
122 times a forward (85 high scorers, 10 high goal-getters, 15 second scorers), 78 times a goalie and a measly 7 times for defencemen. This group now includes guys like Housley, MacInnis, Coffey and Salming (he actually accounts for the majority of those), etc.
The age of the goaltender
Since the age of the goaltender began (I put this at around 1994), the stats are even more skewed. There's a single defenceman from across 6 teams with a Molson Cup (Kaberle last year) and 50 goalies.
The Habs are even more goalie happy (I think we knew that), and for them it's been 11 goalies in 16 chances to give the award. Sure Patrick Roy got it twice in there, but so did Hackett, Huet and price even in so-so years.
Does this seem right?
I thought there was a reasonably good premise making the rounds that one built a team with defence. Give me a good defenceman and I'll give you a solid team for years.
When we talk about the 1970s dynasty, The Big Three are rarely omitted from conversation. When the 1980s come up, we probably look to Robinson and Chelios rather than Tremblay and Penney.
Yet, the Molson Cup as an award is almost completely unavailable to defencemen because of the way the stars are chosen.
It's easy to see how it happens. Not paying attention? need to get those stars in? Who scored? Who got more than 1 point? Does the goalie have a save percentage over 0.900?
Over a season, it's even easier. The goalie plays 60 minutes of each game, it's his star to lose it seems. A player scores, and it's almost certain it's an important goal. But a good defensive effort? Well that's nice, but we'll put that on file for a later time. Rinse, repeat.
I know the players probably don't put much stock in an award they know to be faulty. I know they still think Markov was their best player last season and the one before that, even though there are other names on the Molson Cup. Yet it seems a shame then that the only trophy publicly honouring a "player of the year" is this one.
That's why I ask whether there should be another trophy to award to the player who was the team's most valuable for the year. Perhaps not to replace the Molson Cup and the "wonderful" fan experience we get from paying Bell for the privelege to vote, perhaps to complement it.
At this point, Price would win the new one too, but at least he couldn't be doubted for simply winning an award by virtue of being a goaltender.
Carey Price is very much deserving of the Award from November, and he'd have won it with any form of voting and tabulation. I have no issue with the award going to him this month, this year (he's probably got enough votes in the bank already with the new voting system!).
I do, however, take issue with the Molson Cup as a whole.
In reality, the award might as well be given on the basis of a vote on the final day of the season:
"Who should win the Cup? The goalie or the leading point getter?"
Cynical? Only because it's true.
Since Wikipedia records begin on this award, it has been given to 37 different Canadiens. 37 chances to honour the player of the year. In that time, the award has been given 16 times to a goalie and 20 times to a forward. 13 times the forward was the high scorer, 2 times the top goalscorer, 3 times second in scoring.
There were a total of 2 forwards who weren't at the very top, and a single defenceman honoured from a list of alumni that includes the Big Three (Robinson, Savard and Lapointe), Langway, Chelios and now Markov.
Around the Canadian teams, it's been largely the same story.
122 times a forward (85 high scorers, 10 high goal-getters, 15 second scorers), 78 times a goalie and a measly 7 times for defencemen. This group now includes guys like Housley, MacInnis, Coffey and Salming (he actually accounts for the majority of those), etc.
The age of the goaltender
Since the age of the goaltender began (I put this at around 1994), the stats are even more skewed. There's a single defenceman from across 6 teams with a Molson Cup (Kaberle last year) and 50 goalies.
The Habs are even more goalie happy (I think we knew that), and for them it's been 11 goalies in 16 chances to give the award. Sure Patrick Roy got it twice in there, but so did Hackett, Huet and price even in so-so years.
Does this seem right?
I thought there was a reasonably good premise making the rounds that one built a team with defence. Give me a good defenceman and I'll give you a solid team for years.
When we talk about the 1970s dynasty, The Big Three are rarely omitted from conversation. When the 1980s come up, we probably look to Robinson and Chelios rather than Tremblay and Penney.
Yet, the Molson Cup as an award is almost completely unavailable to defencemen because of the way the stars are chosen.
It's easy to see how it happens. Not paying attention? need to get those stars in? Who scored? Who got more than 1 point? Does the goalie have a save percentage over 0.900?
Over a season, it's even easier. The goalie plays 60 minutes of each game, it's his star to lose it seems. A player scores, and it's almost certain it's an important goal. But a good defensive effort? Well that's nice, but we'll put that on file for a later time. Rinse, repeat.
I know the players probably don't put much stock in an award they know to be faulty. I know they still think Markov was their best player last season and the one before that, even though there are other names on the Molson Cup. Yet it seems a shame then that the only trophy publicly honouring a "player of the year" is this one.
That's why I ask whether there should be another trophy to award to the player who was the team's most valuable for the year. Perhaps not to replace the Molson Cup and the "wonderful" fan experience we get from paying Bell for the privelege to vote, perhaps to complement it.
At this point, Price would win the new one too, but at least he couldn't be doubted for simply winning an award by virtue of being a goaltender.
Friday, June 18, 2010
What If Those Were Price's Numbers?
26-13-5, 2.40, 0.924
9-9-0, 2.55, 0.923
56-34-7, 2.62, 0.919
Those are the numbers at issue here. Regular season, playoffs and career to date. They look pretty good. Too good apparrently for the Canadiens in their cap situation.
I can accept that argument (I don't like it), but humour me here. What if those numbers belonged to a first round draft pick from 2005 named Carey Price?
Would the Canadiens have been able to get away with trading him for a package? (I think we can all admit, it would have been an even better one)
Or, would the Canadiens have been forced to find a way to fit in his millions?
Is it worth thinking about?.
9-9-0, 2.55, 0.923
56-34-7, 2.62, 0.919
Those are the numbers at issue here. Regular season, playoffs and career to date. They look pretty good. Too good apparrently for the Canadiens in their cap situation.
I can accept that argument (I don't like it), but humour me here. What if those numbers belonged to a first round draft pick from 2005 named Carey Price?
Would the Canadiens have been able to get away with trading him for a package? (I think we can all admit, it would have been an even better one)
Or, would the Canadiens have been forced to find a way to fit in his millions?
Is it worth thinking about?.
Tuesday, April 06, 2010
Some Quotes To Make Our Bias Look Pale
Last week, I responded to responded to a Price friendly article with a Price unfriendly response. Balance is what I was seeking. I forget that not everyone follows the same reading patterns as me.
The ensuing debate was interesting and educational for everyone. We all got to reflect a little bit on our own positions and the possibility of coming out of the trenches we have dug just a little.
Another week and it's more of the same from the Habsosphere. Rather than opine on this one inkblot more, I offer you two quotes to consider:
Jack Todd, Montreal Gazette:
Ted Bird, CTV:
Plenty to offend all the sensibilities of all parties there I think. Gotta love Montreal, they know how to keep that pot stirred.
The ensuing debate was interesting and educational for everyone. We all got to reflect a little bit on our own positions and the possibility of coming out of the trenches we have dug just a little.
Another week and it's more of the same from the Habsosphere. Rather than opine on this one inkblot more, I offer you two quotes to consider:
Jack Todd, Montreal Gazette:
"Just when we thought he was growing up, meanwhile, it turns out that Price, is aging like fine whine.
Price was caught again last week, dissing and moaning about his hard luck, the people who bother him in public, the lack of offensive support, the boo-birds at the Bell Centre.
This is Montreal. It's the NHL. Boos, bores and bad bounces go with the territory. If you can't take it, you belong in Nashville."
Ted Bird, CTV:
"Clearly, the numbers favor Halak, but numbers are for bean counters who don't understand or appreciate the intangibles that separate respectability from greatness.
Halak has been at least as much of a pleasant surprise as Price has been a disappointment, but there are reasons Price was drafted fifth overall in the first round in 2005, two years after Halak was taken in the 9th round, and the 22-year-old Price is still a more likely candidate to develop into a franchise goaltender than Halak is to sustain his excellent level of play over the long term."
Plenty to offend all the sensibilities of all parties there I think. Gotta love Montreal, they know how to keep that pot stirred.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Canadiens Season Preview
Remaining Goalies And Prospects
The more astute among you will have noticed I got overexcited and missed any discussion of outgoing goalie Marc Denis – such is the impression he made on me last season. Well, NHL stats-wise it would have been a waste of time. And now I'm at the end of the line here, I haven't the energy to spend on an AHL journeyman no longer with the team. Today is my last installment of the preview and it encompasses NHL/AHL player Sanford, next in line Desjardins and the goaltending prospects.
Sanford et al
Curtis Sanford
Legend
Stats notes
I don't know much of Sanford beyond what you see here, so this should be interesting. Here's what I think:
1) As good as his defence
Last season, Curtis put up some nice numbers – better than Price's even. But do not be fooled, that whole right side of the pie shows that he got some very nice defensive help from his teammates. The 0.910 expected save%, particularly, is a very nice starting point to be giving a goalie – it leaves little to do to crack the league top 30 list. By the same token, his stats in St. Louis were poor on a poor team – no heroics then.
2) Don't expect full starts
Last season he played in 19, but only started 15. In 3 of those 15 starts he was pulled. Similarly, the previous year, there were 7 complete games with 9 incomplete ones. That's 19 complete games in 2 years (and 16 partial ones). I wouldn't expect anything different this year, health of the current team permitting. An able back-up to be sure, but not one seen as a starter in this NHL anymore.
3) Settling in
After briefly trying to crack the NHL as starter, and then as top-2 man in St. Louis, it seems that Curtis may be settling now into that third man role where he can thrive. More occasional starts with more regular work on the farm have translated into better stats in both locales.
Topham on Sanford:
When I heard we had signed Curtis Sanford, my mind immediately went back to the pitiful St Louis Blues. The first I heard of Sanford was when he wrested the starting job form Patrick Lalime in St Louis back in 2005. That season was effectively his NHL rookie season and he put up some good numbers. But ever wanting to fit the mould of future Habs goalie, the next year when given his golden ticket, he stumbled (that'd be that 0.888 season you can see above). From that moment it seems the league has said thanks but no thanks to Curtis Sanford as starter or even backup starter.
But since then, he's also pulled his game together. 2 seasons in the NHL were spotted with fewer games but improvement. Parts of a season in the AHL were marked by absolute dominance. Consider then, when Gainey was looking for a goalie to help Cedrick Desjardins and possibly stand in for some minutes if an NHL guy went down, that Curtis Sanford was not such a daft choice.
I expect this season will be a mirror of Marc Denis' season last year, with pretty much the entirety of a season spent in Hamilton, shining for the most part, with a brief if any call-up to the Bell Centre. His experience of being part of the league winning, and always ambitious, Moose franchise should aid and abet the morale in Hamilton – a reminder that though dreams lie in the NHL, winning in the AHL while being paid hundreds thousands to do it ain't half bad. Any mentoring of Cedrick Desjardins at this point would be a big bonus, because the Habs are staring down the barrel of a gun with goalie prospects at the moment. I think over the season he will be asked to pass the torch to Desjardins, something that may spell the end to another brief veteran goaltending career in Hamilton.
Where Sanford will start 2009-10: Starting goalie in Hamilton
Where Sanford will end 2009-10: Co-starter in Hamilton
Key (NHL) stats: 5 GP, 0 GS
Potential call-up
1) Cedrick Desjardins
Just who is this Cedrick Desjardins that we are meant to be trusting with our fortunes if disaster strikes? You can be excused for not knowing the answer.
Cedrick is an undrafted youngster who has taken the road less travelled to get to where he is in the depth chart. From very very humble beginnings as a 1-game winner (20 starts) on the 11-game, Crosby-targeting, tanking specialists that were the 2002-03 Rimouski Oceanic he steadily improved as a goalie in junior. 2003-04 was OK, but it was 2004-05 and 2005-06 where he shone. In 04-05, he backstopped a Crosby led team to the Memorial Cup finals (though they lost to a stacked Knights squad). The next year, with equally impressive stats for the Q, he took Quebec (with Radulov and Esposito) to the Memorial Cup finals again – this time to win.
From there, he had a training camp invite but nothing more from the Chicago Blackhawks. And then, though the stingy Montreal media would never give Gainey credit for it, the French Canadian (NB, to be exact) goalie was scoped by the Habs organization. With Halak and Danis in the picture, Cedrick was to offer depth, and that first season he did (in Cincinnati), where once again his numbers improved. The following year, 2007-08, he was to be called up to the Bulldogs for an extended stint and performed very well (0.909 in the AHL). he'd end the season in style by starring in the Cyclones' capture of the Kelly Cup – a third championship final in four years. That brings us to last season where Desjardins was chief deputy to Marc Denis all season long. In 30 games, he once again improved his numbers (0.919 and 2.55 this time) to mark another season of progress. In the end, it was probably his strong play that sealed Denis' fate and paved the way for a Sanford/Desjardins tandem.
I note that he is a possible call up because his numbers in the AHL so far are very credible. We've seen him in camp against NHLers now too, and he fared well enough to keep that credibility. With other young goalies at the top level, it doesn't seem like Desjardins is here for the Canadiens. However, if he takes another step forward, he could well make things interesting by the trade deadline – making himself, Sanford or one of the NHLers bait for organizational improvements.
2) [Fill in blank]
If 3 goalies sustain injuries, Gainey will need to move as there is nothing looking anything like an NHL player beyond Desjardins in this system.
Loic Lacasse might have had a place here, but the 2004 draft pick, who put up some nice stats in his first stint in Hamilton showed the patience of Jaroslav Halak's agent and has committed careericide in the first degree by signing a contract with the NAHL. Oh, heady days.
The next wave
1) Robert Mayer
Though born in Czech, he represents the Swiss, and with a name like Mayer it's not hard to fathom why. The Canadiens signed Mayer during the summer of 2008 after his first season with the Saint John Sea Dogs of the QMJHL. His 2008-09 was once again spent in new Brunswick, and while his personal stats took a leap in the right direction, the Sea Dogs he was leading were left disappointed in their quest for silverware.
It says the Canadiens assigned Mayer to Hamilton after his sojourn in Montreal for training camp, but that was only temporary. He should be the top goalie the next level down – a replacement for the departed Lacasse. Hopefully he'll get the lion's share of the work in Cincy, so he can take the next step in development and provide us with a bit of proper depth at this position.
2) Jason Missiaen
Perhaps in the future we will get a chance to witness Missiaen skating up to "The Monster" after a sweep of Toronto in the playoffs (OK, sweep of the Marlies?). The sooner the 6'3" Swede is made to look like a dwarf and not a troll, the better – then we can put that stupid nickname to bed.
As for Missiaen, there isn't really much more to say than that he is very big (6'8" by most accounts). Drafted by the Canadiens in 2008, probably on a bit of a flyer, he is still playing junior hockey this season. After taking what seemed to be backwards steps with the Petes last year, Missiaen seems to have started well this season as their new full-time starter. As with Mayer, any improvement will be welcomed. But it's hard to see him unseating Price, Halak or even Desjardins at any point in the future. Still, where there's a limb, there's a way – and he has lots of limb, his pads must make Giguere's look like toys.
3) Petteri Simila
The Canadiens scouting of goalies seems to have become a little lax, wouldn't you say? I mean, I know it's good we have two guys under the age of 25 in the NHL. And that if all goes well the goaltending position could be sealed and delivered for a decade and a half; but perhaps one criteria on top of height?
Petteri Simila is the midge of the Canadiens junior goalies, a mere 78" tall. What we do know about him is that he was drafted with the very last pick in the NHL draft (basically a free agent signing if you ask me). Someone somewhere must have caught one of the Karpat back-up's games and decided he was worth a look. Still, let's not assume too much, the scout didn't bother to mention it until the draft was basically over.
I look at Simila as a try-out really, no different than Desjardins or Mayer – the fact he was drafted being irrelevant. This season's try-out for the big man will be in the Niagara Falls area with the IceDogs. Though he'll wear the logo which enshrines Don Cherry's pitbull for the year, we can rest assured that the luminary himself won't be interfering with our prospect, since he sold the team a while back.
Simila has an uphill battle to prove himself to IceDogs brass, let alone Habs brass. The season has started with him in the back-up role. If he can wriggle into starting position and do something of note, another camp might be in his future. Then again, Canadiens prospects are so thin on the ground at his position merely being able to tie skates by next summer might be enough.
Sanford et al
Curtis Sanford
| NHL Season | GP | Starts | Pulled | Min | W | L | OTL | GAA | Save % | SO |
| 08-09 (VAN) | 19 | 15 | 3 | 973 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 2.59 | 0.906 | 1 |
| 07-08 (VAN) | 16 | 9 | 2 | 679 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2.83 | 0.898 | 0 |
| 06-07 (STL) | 31 | 26 | 5 | 1492 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 3.18 | 0.888 | 0 |
| Personal save profile | |
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Stats notes
I don't know much of Sanford beyond what you see here, so this should be interesting. Here's what I think:
1) As good as his defence
Last season, Curtis put up some nice numbers – better than Price's even. But do not be fooled, that whole right side of the pie shows that he got some very nice defensive help from his teammates. The 0.910 expected save%, particularly, is a very nice starting point to be giving a goalie – it leaves little to do to crack the league top 30 list. By the same token, his stats in St. Louis were poor on a poor team – no heroics then.
2) Don't expect full starts
Last season he played in 19, but only started 15. In 3 of those 15 starts he was pulled. Similarly, the previous year, there were 7 complete games with 9 incomplete ones. That's 19 complete games in 2 years (and 16 partial ones). I wouldn't expect anything different this year, health of the current team permitting. An able back-up to be sure, but not one seen as a starter in this NHL anymore.
3) Settling in
After briefly trying to crack the NHL as starter, and then as top-2 man in St. Louis, it seems that Curtis may be settling now into that third man role where he can thrive. More occasional starts with more regular work on the farm have translated into better stats in both locales.
Topham on Sanford:
When I heard we had signed Curtis Sanford, my mind immediately went back to the pitiful St Louis Blues. The first I heard of Sanford was when he wrested the starting job form Patrick Lalime in St Louis back in 2005. That season was effectively his NHL rookie season and he put up some good numbers. But ever wanting to fit the mould of future Habs goalie, the next year when given his golden ticket, he stumbled (that'd be that 0.888 season you can see above). From that moment it seems the league has said thanks but no thanks to Curtis Sanford as starter or even backup starter.
But since then, he's also pulled his game together. 2 seasons in the NHL were spotted with fewer games but improvement. Parts of a season in the AHL were marked by absolute dominance. Consider then, when Gainey was looking for a goalie to help Cedrick Desjardins and possibly stand in for some minutes if an NHL guy went down, that Curtis Sanford was not such a daft choice.
I expect this season will be a mirror of Marc Denis' season last year, with pretty much the entirety of a season spent in Hamilton, shining for the most part, with a brief if any call-up to the Bell Centre. His experience of being part of the league winning, and always ambitious, Moose franchise should aid and abet the morale in Hamilton – a reminder that though dreams lie in the NHL, winning in the AHL while being paid hundreds thousands to do it ain't half bad. Any mentoring of Cedrick Desjardins at this point would be a big bonus, because the Habs are staring down the barrel of a gun with goalie prospects at the moment. I think over the season he will be asked to pass the torch to Desjardins, something that may spell the end to another brief veteran goaltending career in Hamilton.
Where Sanford will start 2009-10: Starting goalie in Hamilton
Where Sanford will end 2009-10: Co-starter in Hamilton
Key (NHL) stats: 5 GP, 0 GS
Potential call-up
1) Cedrick Desjardins
Just who is this Cedrick Desjardins that we are meant to be trusting with our fortunes if disaster strikes? You can be excused for not knowing the answer.
Cedrick is an undrafted youngster who has taken the road less travelled to get to where he is in the depth chart. From very very humble beginnings as a 1-game winner (20 starts) on the 11-game, Crosby-targeting, tanking specialists that were the 2002-03 Rimouski Oceanic he steadily improved as a goalie in junior. 2003-04 was OK, but it was 2004-05 and 2005-06 where he shone. In 04-05, he backstopped a Crosby led team to the Memorial Cup finals (though they lost to a stacked Knights squad). The next year, with equally impressive stats for the Q, he took Quebec (with Radulov and Esposito) to the Memorial Cup finals again – this time to win.
From there, he had a training camp invite but nothing more from the Chicago Blackhawks. And then, though the stingy Montreal media would never give Gainey credit for it, the French Canadian (NB, to be exact) goalie was scoped by the Habs organization. With Halak and Danis in the picture, Cedrick was to offer depth, and that first season he did (in Cincinnati), where once again his numbers improved. The following year, 2007-08, he was to be called up to the Bulldogs for an extended stint and performed very well (0.909 in the AHL). he'd end the season in style by starring in the Cyclones' capture of the Kelly Cup – a third championship final in four years. That brings us to last season where Desjardins was chief deputy to Marc Denis all season long. In 30 games, he once again improved his numbers (0.919 and 2.55 this time) to mark another season of progress. In the end, it was probably his strong play that sealed Denis' fate and paved the way for a Sanford/Desjardins tandem.
I note that he is a possible call up because his numbers in the AHL so far are very credible. We've seen him in camp against NHLers now too, and he fared well enough to keep that credibility. With other young goalies at the top level, it doesn't seem like Desjardins is here for the Canadiens. However, if he takes another step forward, he could well make things interesting by the trade deadline – making himself, Sanford or one of the NHLers bait for organizational improvements.
2) [Fill in blank]
If 3 goalies sustain injuries, Gainey will need to move as there is nothing looking anything like an NHL player beyond Desjardins in this system.
Loic Lacasse might have had a place here, but the 2004 draft pick, who put up some nice stats in his first stint in Hamilton showed the patience of Jaroslav Halak's agent and has committed careericide in the first degree by signing a contract with the NAHL. Oh, heady days.
The next wave
1) Robert Mayer
Though born in Czech, he represents the Swiss, and with a name like Mayer it's not hard to fathom why. The Canadiens signed Mayer during the summer of 2008 after his first season with the Saint John Sea Dogs of the QMJHL. His 2008-09 was once again spent in new Brunswick, and while his personal stats took a leap in the right direction, the Sea Dogs he was leading were left disappointed in their quest for silverware.
It says the Canadiens assigned Mayer to Hamilton after his sojourn in Montreal for training camp, but that was only temporary. He should be the top goalie the next level down – a replacement for the departed Lacasse. Hopefully he'll get the lion's share of the work in Cincy, so he can take the next step in development and provide us with a bit of proper depth at this position.
2) Jason Missiaen
Perhaps in the future we will get a chance to witness Missiaen skating up to "The Monster" after a sweep of Toronto in the playoffs (OK, sweep of the Marlies?). The sooner the 6'3" Swede is made to look like a dwarf and not a troll, the better – then we can put that stupid nickname to bed.
As for Missiaen, there isn't really much more to say than that he is very big (6'8" by most accounts). Drafted by the Canadiens in 2008, probably on a bit of a flyer, he is still playing junior hockey this season. After taking what seemed to be backwards steps with the Petes last year, Missiaen seems to have started well this season as their new full-time starter. As with Mayer, any improvement will be welcomed. But it's hard to see him unseating Price, Halak or even Desjardins at any point in the future. Still, where there's a limb, there's a way – and he has lots of limb, his pads must make Giguere's look like toys.
3) Petteri Simila
The Canadiens scouting of goalies seems to have become a little lax, wouldn't you say? I mean, I know it's good we have two guys under the age of 25 in the NHL. And that if all goes well the goaltending position could be sealed and delivered for a decade and a half; but perhaps one criteria on top of height?
Petteri Simila is the midge of the Canadiens junior goalies, a mere 78" tall. What we do know about him is that he was drafted with the very last pick in the NHL draft (basically a free agent signing if you ask me). Someone somewhere must have caught one of the Karpat back-up's games and decided he was worth a look. Still, let's not assume too much, the scout didn't bother to mention it until the draft was basically over.
I look at Simila as a try-out really, no different than Desjardins or Mayer – the fact he was drafted being irrelevant. This season's try-out for the big man will be in the Niagara Falls area with the IceDogs. Though he'll wear the logo which enshrines Don Cherry's pitbull for the year, we can rest assured that the luminary himself won't be interfering with our prospect, since he sold the team a while back.
Simila has an uphill battle to prove himself to IceDogs brass, let alone Habs brass. The season has started with him in the back-up role. If he can wriggle into starting position and do something of note, another camp might be in his future. Then again, Canadiens prospects are so thin on the ground at his position merely being able to tie skates by next summer might be enough.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Canadiens Season Preview
NHL Goalies
For those that have been tiring at the previews over the last week (I know, defensive defencemen, yawn), this should perk you up. The goaltender preview. You know we've been hard on Price and aren't afraid to point out his blemishes. I know some of you don't like it. Should be a good mix for some discussion.
Price - Halak
Carey Price
Legend
Stats notes
Carey had a few missteps in the second half of last season and it shows in his statistics. While even I would have bought the thoroughbred line in January, but was seriously sceptical of being told I shouldn't believe anything but in Gainey's patronising post-season talk. While I have covered Carey's season in much more depth elsewhere (Are These Thoroughbred Stats?), I'll do the highlights from the stats here today:
1) Very sound at even strength
One thing you'll notice from the special goalie pie is that Carey Price has a very good save percentage at even strength. Playing behind a defence that is letting up shots that should go in 9.5% of the time, he makes sure that only 8.6% go in. From watching his play, I can tell you this is what I like. When the play is at normal tempo, without any added complications, he covers the angles and makes more saves than an average goalie would.
2) Bad last season when shooters had time
I think the PK save percentage is quite an interesting one. While the stats sites haven't run the same expected save % numbers on these stats, I have tried to paint the picture myself. For Carey, the picture isn't good. Price was pretty much the worst goalie in the league on the PK last year. And while apologists tell us the defence let him down, that bright green segment tells us that compared to most goalies in the league, Carey was actually getting decent defence, even above average at times. My interpretation of this is that Price hasn't adapted his game to the PK yet. While at ES, his amazing positioning and movement is more than enough, on the PK it isn't. On the PP shooters enjoy more time and free positions, they can set their feet for shots and even pick corners without the pressure of defence. Goaltending against this kind of attack is typically difficult, but can be improved with quickness and reflexes. Carey's 0.803 save percentage tells us he's not up to the standard of his peers in those skills yet.
3) Defence never as good as it could have been
When you see a 0.920 save percentage on a first place team, you shouldn't then glance left and see 2.56 GAA. When a team has goalies that make more than the expected rate of saves, it seems wasteful to then turn around and allow more than the average amount of shots. Apart from the help he got on the PK (and decided not to take), Carey hasn't been as insulated as you might hope a very young goalie would be. This is not an excuse, merely an observation. I would be remiss not to also note that many do manage more with less.
Carey's career has taken in more highlights and lowlights in 2 years than many veteran goalies have had in a career. From great to merely good, we must hope he turns the trending of his progression around, because even sticking on good at this point may not be enough.
Tobalev on Price:
Carey started the year well, but injuries, All-Star festivities, the Centennial, the expectation to win and a whole bunch of other issues seemed to affect him in a very negative way. His problems (even at his best times) have always been his inability to rebound from a bad goal (or stint) and his glove hand - these two areas were a huge concern in pretty much every game he played from January onwards. I think that last winter was when we, the team and even Carey may have realised that he was no Dryden or Roy; no, for now, he was average and he'd have to work to progress. The defence surely let him down on numerous occasions (as did the offence), but at the end of the day he simply wasn’t good enough (or as good as he had been) to take us anywhere; he was one of the main reasons we almost missed the playoffs.
The one good thing heading into this year is that Carey will get much more support from his teammates on a nightly basis. I think that the general consensus is that we have a better coach, a better system and better defencemen. All of this may turn Carey’s off nights (or weeks or months) into something that we can work with. I am not too concerned with his numbers, except for one – wins. If he can find a way to let in one less goal than the other keeper and find ways to bounce back from rough goals/outings, then he may indeed be here for the long haul. I am afraid, however, that if he picks up where he left off last year then we will eventually have some choices to make. I for one am not sold on him being the centerpiece of the next two decades for this team, and he’ll have to play quite well to change this mind. That said, all I want is for us to win games and for now we know we’ll have to give that a shot with Price back there.
Gainey will make sure, if healthy, Carey plays in 50-65 games (regardless of performance), so you should expect to see 25-35 wins. I predict 2 shutouts (the defence is better after all) and slightly improved numbers; 2.60 GAA and .914 Save %.
Where Price will start 2009-10: Starting goalie
Where Price will end 2009-10: Starting goalie
Key stats: 33 W, 2.60 GAA, 0.914 save%
Jaroslav Halak
Legend
Stats notes
Because there are only 2 goaltenders, this preview certainly does lend itself better to head-to-head comparisons. The debate is likely to once again rage and settle and rage and settle as to who to start in important games (it is Montreal). I can only start it off here by pointing out that Halak, last season was the better Canadiens goalie on the whole, but that really he was the better of two average goalies:
1) Very similar to price at ES
Although you'd never think it from watching them both play at ES, both Halak and Price are well above average. Halak's pie does look different, but a closer look at the numbers show that although he snuck into a higher quintile, raw save percentage and raw expected save percentage were very similar.
2) Excellent last season on the PK
If the two were all but the same at ES, PK is where their fortunes diverged. While Price was league worst, Halak flirted with the Backstroms and Lundqvists of the league with his 0.890 rate of efficiency. To extend my theory on Price, I believe that is because Halak has better reflexes and is better at improvising at this stage of his career – two skills that serve him well under bombardment.
3) Even worse defence than our man Price got
Better save percentages and worse GAA say that on average Halak did not enjoy even the level of mediocrity that Price did from his skaters. Here's the rub though, it shouldn't matter. Good goalies find ways to let in less goals overall, even if means they have to post gaudy 0.930+ save percentages. If Halak wants to grab a starting position here or elsewhere, he'll need to cut down goals against whatever his defenders decide to do.
2006-07 was an unexpected surprise. 2007-08 was tantalizing with numbers. It seems 2008-09 was just about the real Halak. If that's true what you get is a goalie who makes saves he shouldn't and from worse starting position than his more technically-sound rival. I'm not sure he's the best back up int he league, but another season of 0.915+ and you'd have to think he's close.
Tobalev on Halak
On the whole, Halak’s 2008-09 season looks pretty good - 18-14-1, 1 SO, 2.86 and 0.915 – but there were still some concerns. I seem to remember that when given the chance he never really took the bull by the horns. To be fair to him though he did have that one incredible stretch that was interrupted by the flu, an illness that likely cost him more starts and his team a deeper run into the playoffs. I guess what I am trying to say is that Jaro isn’t as good as Price-bashers make him out to be (he himself is only really average and has yet to perform for long stretches at a time), but he is better than some people make him out to be too (he would be a very desirable back-up options for most GMs). His season last year taught us that he is definitely good enough to play a lot of games and to squeak out wins, but also that he isn’t (at least not yet) an elite NHL goaltender; we are therefore batting 0/2 in that department.
I can’t see Jaro really going anywhere anytime soon, he should be in Montreal all year. A lot of people want him traded, but I don’t think our depth would allow for that, besides, he isn’t quite good enough that he’d get us very much in return. Therefore, he is best suited to playing in Montreal for now, behind Price. I believe that the starter job, however, could be up for grabs by as early as Christmas and I really believe that Halak has a shot at being that guy this time around. If (or maybe when?) Price falters, look for Jaro to start getting some consecutive starts. For now, however, he will play about once every three or four games. I fully expect his Save % to remain high and his GAA to go down to the 2.40-2.60 range (again, thanks to team etc.). If I had to bet I would say he features in 35-40 games and will likely play for about a .550 winning %. That should give him about 15-20 wins when you consider that he’ll be coming into some of those games as relief.
Where Halak will start 2009-10: Back-up
Where Halak will end 2009-10: On a charge again
Key stats: 16 W, 2.47 GAA, 0.915 Save%
While Halak was surely better than Price last season, he was frustrating to his supporters in not being able to prove that he will be better than Price. As Tobalev said, both have lots to learn, both are currently occupying the average territory in league goaltending ranks.
Perhaps not as controversial as I promised. I think I held back knowing that I'd done a bit of this work before, and that I wouldn't have the time or the inspiration to match it. For those who want to see that follow the link to the little read Carey Price Segment from last May.
Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier
Price - Halak
Carey Price
| NHL Season | GP | Starts | Pulled | Min | W | L | OTL | GAA | Save % | SO |
| 08-09 (MTL) | 52 | 49 | 1 | 3036 | 23 | 16 | 10 | 2.83 | 0.905 | 1 |
| 07-08 (MTL) | 41 | 40 | 2 | 2413 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 2.56 | 0.920 | 3 |
| Personal save profile | |
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|
Stats notes
Carey had a few missteps in the second half of last season and it shows in his statistics. While even I would have bought the thoroughbred line in January, but was seriously sceptical of being told I shouldn't believe anything but in Gainey's patronising post-season talk. While I have covered Carey's season in much more depth elsewhere (Are These Thoroughbred Stats?), I'll do the highlights from the stats here today:
1) Very sound at even strength
One thing you'll notice from the special goalie pie is that Carey Price has a very good save percentage at even strength. Playing behind a defence that is letting up shots that should go in 9.5% of the time, he makes sure that only 8.6% go in. From watching his play, I can tell you this is what I like. When the play is at normal tempo, without any added complications, he covers the angles and makes more saves than an average goalie would.
2) Bad last season when shooters had time
I think the PK save percentage is quite an interesting one. While the stats sites haven't run the same expected save % numbers on these stats, I have tried to paint the picture myself. For Carey, the picture isn't good. Price was pretty much the worst goalie in the league on the PK last year. And while apologists tell us the defence let him down, that bright green segment tells us that compared to most goalies in the league, Carey was actually getting decent defence, even above average at times. My interpretation of this is that Price hasn't adapted his game to the PK yet. While at ES, his amazing positioning and movement is more than enough, on the PK it isn't. On the PP shooters enjoy more time and free positions, they can set their feet for shots and even pick corners without the pressure of defence. Goaltending against this kind of attack is typically difficult, but can be improved with quickness and reflexes. Carey's 0.803 save percentage tells us he's not up to the standard of his peers in those skills yet.
3) Defence never as good as it could have been
When you see a 0.920 save percentage on a first place team, you shouldn't then glance left and see 2.56 GAA. When a team has goalies that make more than the expected rate of saves, it seems wasteful to then turn around and allow more than the average amount of shots. Apart from the help he got on the PK (and decided not to take), Carey hasn't been as insulated as you might hope a very young goalie would be. This is not an excuse, merely an observation. I would be remiss not to also note that many do manage more with less.
Carey's career has taken in more highlights and lowlights in 2 years than many veteran goalies have had in a career. From great to merely good, we must hope he turns the trending of his progression around, because even sticking on good at this point may not be enough.
Tobalev on Price:
Carey started the year well, but injuries, All-Star festivities, the Centennial, the expectation to win and a whole bunch of other issues seemed to affect him in a very negative way. His problems (even at his best times) have always been his inability to rebound from a bad goal (or stint) and his glove hand - these two areas were a huge concern in pretty much every game he played from January onwards. I think that last winter was when we, the team and even Carey may have realised that he was no Dryden or Roy; no, for now, he was average and he'd have to work to progress. The defence surely let him down on numerous occasions (as did the offence), but at the end of the day he simply wasn’t good enough (or as good as he had been) to take us anywhere; he was one of the main reasons we almost missed the playoffs.
The one good thing heading into this year is that Carey will get much more support from his teammates on a nightly basis. I think that the general consensus is that we have a better coach, a better system and better defencemen. All of this may turn Carey’s off nights (or weeks or months) into something that we can work with. I am not too concerned with his numbers, except for one – wins. If he can find a way to let in one less goal than the other keeper and find ways to bounce back from rough goals/outings, then he may indeed be here for the long haul. I am afraid, however, that if he picks up where he left off last year then we will eventually have some choices to make. I for one am not sold on him being the centerpiece of the next two decades for this team, and he’ll have to play quite well to change this mind. That said, all I want is for us to win games and for now we know we’ll have to give that a shot with Price back there.
Gainey will make sure, if healthy, Carey plays in 50-65 games (regardless of performance), so you should expect to see 25-35 wins. I predict 2 shutouts (the defence is better after all) and slightly improved numbers; 2.60 GAA and .914 Save %.
Where Price will start 2009-10: Starting goalie
Where Price will end 2009-10: Starting goalie
Key stats: 33 W, 2.60 GAA, 0.914 save%
Jaroslav Halak
| NHL Season | GP | Starts | Pulled | Min | W | L | OTL | GAA | Save % | SO |
| 08-09 (MTL) | 34 | 33 | 3 | 1931 | 18 | 14 | 1 | 2.86 | 0.915 | 1 |
| 07-08 (MTL) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 285 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.11 | 0.934 | 1 |
| 06-07 (MTL) | 16 | 16 | 2 | 912 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 2.89 | 0.906 | 2 |
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Stats notes
Because there are only 2 goaltenders, this preview certainly does lend itself better to head-to-head comparisons. The debate is likely to once again rage and settle and rage and settle as to who to start in important games (it is Montreal). I can only start it off here by pointing out that Halak, last season was the better Canadiens goalie on the whole, but that really he was the better of two average goalies:
1) Very similar to price at ES
Although you'd never think it from watching them both play at ES, both Halak and Price are well above average. Halak's pie does look different, but a closer look at the numbers show that although he snuck into a higher quintile, raw save percentage and raw expected save percentage were very similar.
2) Excellent last season on the PK
If the two were all but the same at ES, PK is where their fortunes diverged. While Price was league worst, Halak flirted with the Backstroms and Lundqvists of the league with his 0.890 rate of efficiency. To extend my theory on Price, I believe that is because Halak has better reflexes and is better at improvising at this stage of his career – two skills that serve him well under bombardment.
3) Even worse defence than our man Price got
Better save percentages and worse GAA say that on average Halak did not enjoy even the level of mediocrity that Price did from his skaters. Here's the rub though, it shouldn't matter. Good goalies find ways to let in less goals overall, even if means they have to post gaudy 0.930+ save percentages. If Halak wants to grab a starting position here or elsewhere, he'll need to cut down goals against whatever his defenders decide to do.
2006-07 was an unexpected surprise. 2007-08 was tantalizing with numbers. It seems 2008-09 was just about the real Halak. If that's true what you get is a goalie who makes saves he shouldn't and from worse starting position than his more technically-sound rival. I'm not sure he's the best back up int he league, but another season of 0.915+ and you'd have to think he's close.
Tobalev on Halak
On the whole, Halak’s 2008-09 season looks pretty good - 18-14-1, 1 SO, 2.86 and 0.915 – but there were still some concerns. I seem to remember that when given the chance he never really took the bull by the horns. To be fair to him though he did have that one incredible stretch that was interrupted by the flu, an illness that likely cost him more starts and his team a deeper run into the playoffs. I guess what I am trying to say is that Jaro isn’t as good as Price-bashers make him out to be (he himself is only really average and has yet to perform for long stretches at a time), but he is better than some people make him out to be too (he would be a very desirable back-up options for most GMs). His season last year taught us that he is definitely good enough to play a lot of games and to squeak out wins, but also that he isn’t (at least not yet) an elite NHL goaltender; we are therefore batting 0/2 in that department.
I can’t see Jaro really going anywhere anytime soon, he should be in Montreal all year. A lot of people want him traded, but I don’t think our depth would allow for that, besides, he isn’t quite good enough that he’d get us very much in return. Therefore, he is best suited to playing in Montreal for now, behind Price. I believe that the starter job, however, could be up for grabs by as early as Christmas and I really believe that Halak has a shot at being that guy this time around. If (or maybe when?) Price falters, look for Jaro to start getting some consecutive starts. For now, however, he will play about once every three or four games. I fully expect his Save % to remain high and his GAA to go down to the 2.40-2.60 range (again, thanks to team etc.). If I had to bet I would say he features in 35-40 games and will likely play for about a .550 winning %. That should give him about 15-20 wins when you consider that he’ll be coming into some of those games as relief.
Where Halak will start 2009-10: Back-up
Where Halak will end 2009-10: On a charge again
Key stats: 16 W, 2.47 GAA, 0.915 Save%
While Halak was surely better than Price last season, he was frustrating to his supporters in not being able to prove that he will be better than Price. As Tobalev said, both have lots to learn, both are currently occupying the average territory in league goaltending ranks.
Perhaps not as controversial as I promised. I think I held back knowing that I'd done a bit of this work before, and that I wouldn't have the time or the inspiration to match it. For those who want to see that follow the link to the little read Carey Price Segment from last May.
Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier
Friday, May 08, 2009
Carey Price: Thoroughbred In The Gates?
Are These Thoroughbred Trends?
As promised, my second post on Carey Price will deal with the question as to whether he is a thoroughbred or not. This piece is not a debate about Halak or Price (that may come later), just the thoroughbred issue.
Carey Price 2008-2009
This season is touted as a season to forget for Carey Price, but I don't think that on the whole is being very fair. I only have to look at my own writings for reminders, like this from the mid-term analysis:
But it wasn't 20 minutes of play after that post before Carey began an atrocious stretch of the season that lasted an unacceptable 14 starts and 6 weeks in all. The beginning of the downfall may have been to injury or, if you buy my pet theory, may have been the How-to-score-on-Price seminar, aka the Youngstars game, in January.
His statistics over that 14-start stretch include a 3.91 GAA, an Aebischeresque 0.862 save percentage and a paltry 5 points from a possible 28 for his team. Conversely, the other 38 games look quite acceptable indeed with a 2.46 GAA, a 0.919 save %, with a contender-like 21 wins and 9 OTLs.
Consider also that in the 14-games of putridity he had a save % under 0.900 on 8 occasions, whereas in his first 25 games that only happened on 6 occasions.
As though letting in nearly 4 goals a game weren't bad enough, it was the style in which he did it in the confidence-sapping stretch of the season that killed the team's morale almost completely by early March. It was goals within the first ten shots ten times and within the first five shots on five occasions. It was goals on consecutive opposition shots (3 times). And it was the untimely way he faltered, such as after the team got a lead or clawed back to tie it up.
All of these things happen to Marin Brodeur once in a while (see playoffs 2009) and to the next tier down a little more. And they happen to average goalies for long stretches.
But isn't that the point? Is he or is he not above average? (A thoroughbred does not conjure thoughts of running in the pack) Perhaps more pertinent, do great goalies start as average/below-average goalies (do thoroughbreds)? To get to the bottom of it, I had a look at some nice stats.
Quality shot stats
Anyone who has been watching Carey Price over the last year (starting specifically at the Philadelphia series) must surely have noticed that good shooters with a good amount of time seem to be able to beat him more than we'd like them to. Anyone who gets sight of the top of the net seems to score. Of course, the defence is heavily to blame for letting so many good shooters get so many good shots away, but there comes a point when you have to wonder -- is Umberger a good shot. If he is, who isn't?
From a subjective point of view, once you get this idea in your mind you start seeing what you want to see. That can be a problem if a goalie lets in high shots game after game. Witness Kostadis' point in the comments to the introductory portion of this series. He notes that Carey Price makes plenty of outstanding saves in some games where we end up un-doming him. Usually because we see the eventual gamewinner as a misplay. So a more objective approach is required from someone so tainted as me, stats...
Quality of shot analysis
For this part of the analysis, I sought some evidence of shot quality from statistics to probe the question properly. The first ones I found were the Behind The Net analysis based on shot quality at 5-on-5.
Here Carey proves himself to be better than average (first pleasant surprise). Based on the average ability to save shots form the positions they came from, we should have expected Carey to let in 93 goals (92.7 actuall) on 1027 shots at even strength. In play, he only let in 88 even strength goals - saving 5 goals more than he should have - good news.
I took it a step further to do some save percentage on these numbers. Basically, I calculated how many goals each goalie saved over and above the expected and divided by the number of goals expected. What this gives us is a statistic that I have called clutch saves; it gives some guide as to what's been happening with "clutch" goaltending this season.
Carey's 4.7 goals saved over 92.7 expected goals means he saves 5.1% of shots that he would have no business saving (if he were average). Very good, I thought.
Furthermore, this percentage puts Price about 32nd among goalies who play enough to warrant consideration. If you look at NHL starters, he's 18th. And if you chuck in Varlamov for good measure, Price is 19th.
The top 5 in the league are all still alive in the playoffs:
Tim Thomas (29.2%)
Simeon Varlamov (26.6%)
Roberto Luongo (26.6%)
Nikolai Khabibulin (26.4%)
Jonas Hiller (22.6%)
Others worth noting:
Henrik Lundqvist (20.8%)
Tomas Vokoun (20.7%)
Martin Brodeur (20.5%)
Pekka Rinne (15.5%)
Steve Mason (13.7%)
Jaroslav Halak (13.4%)
Cristobal Huet (13.2%)
Yann Danis (12.3%)
Cam Ward (12.2%)
Marc-Andre Fluery (3.2%)
Chris Osgood (-6.7%)
Mikka Kiprusoff (-10%)
What does this mean?
Well, it means he's average - or at least he was for the enire season.
The problem here is that averages include all goalies who play in the NHL, not just the 30 starters. So when Pogge (worst in the league, btw) steps in an lets up 9 more goals than expected in 7 games, Carey is compared to that. What's more, for me, where he currently sits is not thoroughbred territory - too many thoroughbreds are ahead of him (some almost as young).
His save percentage, though, at even strength is still a plump 0.914, so no decisive knock-down here. Based on this analysis, his toroughbred status hangs on.
Penalty-kill save %
Behind the Net also has a whole raft of other stats if you're that way inclined. For the second look, I decided to show you goalie performance while his team is a man down. The reason I choose this is because the shot quality analysis isn't done for anything but ES, also it seems logical that shots are better set up on the PP than at ES.
These stats offer a bit of a quick and rude awakening for all those people who support Carey's thorough breeding. If you look across the season for the whole league, Carey Price is in fact the worst starter across all teams in terms of save percentage on the PK. On an average of 38.6 shots per 60 minutes of PP time, Carey Price allowed an average of 7.61 goals. That means his save % was a rather embarrassing 0.803 at 4-on-5.
Now, PP shots are harder to save you say. Of course they are. But the average NHL goalie has a save % of 0.852, and that includes every weak link there is (like Mathieu Garon who saves just over 75% of PP shots in 20 games). Some good goalies have low save percentages here (Brodeur, for example at 0.816), but many don't. Thoroughbreds shouln't, I say.
The top 5 starters in the league here are:
Nicklas Backstrom (0.923)
Henrik Lundqvist (0.918)
Martin Biron (0.894)
Simeon Varlamov (0.893)
Tim Thomas (0.888)
Others to note are:
Craig Anderson (0.910)
Jaroslav Halak (0.890)
Mikka Kiprusoff (0.888)
Pekka Rinne (0.887)
Steve Mason (0.870)
Marc-Andre Fleury (0.867)
Cristobal Huet (0.866)
Jonas Hiller (0.862)
Cam Ward (0.862)
Jose Theodore (0.845)
Yann Danis (0.833)
Roberto Luongo (0.833)
What does this mean?
Well not much on its own. If Carey had been Halak-efficient it would have meant a mere 2 goals less. It's not a case on its own, but as things add up, it certainly seems to follow the pattern. It's another hit against the thoroughbred hypothesis.
Giving a chance to win
In response to Kostadis' case that LIW is wrong about Halak > Price (which is not the point of this piece, rather whether Price = thoroughbred), I thought I could take a similar approach.
He claims, that Carey Price gave the Canadiens a chance to win in 33 games of 49 (so 67.3%), whereas Halak only gave them 52.9% chance. I'll start by pointing out neither goalies stats are based on starts, which I thought they should be. Price goes up and so does Halak, with this tweak. Halak, for his part, gave opportunity for wins in 19/33, or 57.6%.
I thought I would look at things a bit closer. For can we really say that a goalie who loses in OT always gives his team a chance to win. In reality, you say, we can. And I concede on that. But for us at Lions in Winter, we generally look at how many goals a goalie allows to decide whether that would allow a win on most nights (i.e., those where his team doesn't win 6-5). While each goalie loses a couple of games this way, this subjective method actually works in the goalie's favour, since games that are lost 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 can be counted as games he gave his team a chance to win.
By this criteria, nothing really changes. But if you get generous and say that 3 GAs is a reasonable amount for a goalie in a league where average GAA is parked in between 2 and 3 year-upon-year, then it gets interesting.
Carey Price, by the 3-goal criteria, actually gave his team a chance to win 73% of the time. And, lo and behold, Jaroslav Halak gave his team a chance to win an incredible 73% of the time. Funny that it would be equal.
By this criteria, Carey has to win. But only against Halak. It doesn't really prove that anyone is or isn't a thoroughbred. After all, no one has ever accused 9th round QMJHL alum Halak of being thoroughly bred. For that we need to look at goalies on other teams - ones that actually win.
Quickly for illustration I looked at Tim Thomas, Roberto Luongo, Cam Ward and Pekka Rinne.
Tim Thomas by the first criteria (W and OTLs) gave his team a chance to win 79.6% of the time. If you guve him the 3 goal benefit of the doubt that's 83.3% of the time.
Roberto Luongo gave 74.1% and 74.1%.
Cam Ward gave 64.7% and 76.5%.
Rinne gave 67.3% and 81.6%.
This is not a random sample, but I think it's a fair group to sample if you want to look at thoroughbreds. While Carey Price and Halak look OK in isolation, in the light of day they don't stack up to Thomas or Rinne. They come close to Luongo, but to be fair to Roberto, he did have 9 shutouts which mean automatic points (not just chance at), both our guys mustered only 1 of those. I think this category shows Carey in a much better light than the other two. What's more, given his age, I think you could argue that giving his team a 73% chance to win is pretty darn goosd. Is it thoroughbred stuff? Let me just say, I'd rather have Rinne based on this season... (is he a thoroughbred?)
One streak to skew all stats
There's a very very solid case to be made that it was all due to one bad streak. But was it just a bad streak? Did 14 games destroy everything? It's a valid argument, I concede.
For me it's about trends, though. If this were the very first slump from Carey Price, then I'm sure it would be water off a ducks back. It's not though, and a responsible scientist like myself has to ask whether the good is the aberration, or the bad. Those of us counting will note that Carey Price has had a few breakdowns since his arrival with the team. To be generous (and a bit facetious) I'll call these non-thoroughbred episodes, or NTEs. The more research-minded among us will note that he also had a pretty long NTE the season following his selection in the first round, not to mention his blow-up in the WHL playoffs that year. So to enumerate the NTEs:
1) 2005-06 Tri-City Americans
2) January 2008 Montreal and Hamilton
3) April 2008 Round 2 Montreal vs. Philadelphia
4) January and February 2009 Montreal (the aforementioned 14 games)
5) April 2009 Round 1 Montreal vs. Boston
That of course allows us to paint every stretch in between as one where the opposite position is held (i.e., a thoroughbred stretch):
1) 2006-07 All teams (Tri-City, Canada, Hamilton)
2) October to December 2007 Montreal
3) February to April 2008 Montreal (including Round 1 vs. Boston)
4) October to December 2008 Montreal
5) March 2009
On balance there are as many good games as bad in there, and most games are probably just adequate or average (less than 3 goals, saving 90% of shots). What we have is a pint glass with half a pint of beer and half a pint of air. If you go for the glass half full approach, you see the Gold medal for Canada the Calder Cup, the end of the 2007-08 season and Round 1 and the very sturdy beginning for this last season. It all adds up for you. The glass half empty perspective notices the floundering in the playoffs, the 14-game stretch to forget and the easy goals, and starts to question whether sub-NHL success will ever be translated.
I've come to the end of this and realise that despite a lot of stats, not much has changed. I haven't proved that Carey Price is not a thoroughbred, nor can we look and say that he is one. I think I would conclude that there is plenty of reason to question whether his progression will be as smoothe as some assure us it will be. I think there's enough evidence to suggest that anyone who says he's not a thoroughbred is at least as sane as someone who purports he is. I think that's all I wanted to do - prove our point of view on this isn't as crazy as some make it out to be.
What I can say with some assurance is that this season he was not a great goalie. On average he was an average goalie. Is that good for 21? I don't know.
I think we'll have to wait and see what happens by next season on this one. Maybe even wait until the next playoff test. Given that Gainey is basing our team around this guy come hell or high water, I'd recommend to anyone that hasn't already dedicated 50 blog pages to this to take the glass half full approach -- it'll be better for your sanity.
Carey Price 2008-2009
This season is touted as a season to forget for Carey Price, but I don't think that on the whole is being very fair. I only have to look at my own writings for reminders, like this from the mid-term analysis:
Carey Price: A+
Top ten in multiple categories in NHL rankings, his contribution to the Habs has been undeniable so far. His value to the fan, as we've seen during Halak's reign, is that he positions himself so well and so far ahead of the play that many saves look too easy. Only a year into his career, to be A+ on a 56-point team midway through the season is an impressive feat. Tough tests to come though, no doubt.
But it wasn't 20 minutes of play after that post before Carey began an atrocious stretch of the season that lasted an unacceptable 14 starts and 6 weeks in all. The beginning of the downfall may have been to injury or, if you buy my pet theory, may have been the How-to-score-on-Price seminar, aka the Youngstars game, in January.
His statistics over that 14-start stretch include a 3.91 GAA, an Aebischeresque 0.862 save percentage and a paltry 5 points from a possible 28 for his team. Conversely, the other 38 games look quite acceptable indeed with a 2.46 GAA, a 0.919 save %, with a contender-like 21 wins and 9 OTLs.
Consider also that in the 14-games of putridity he had a save % under 0.900 on 8 occasions, whereas in his first 25 games that only happened on 6 occasions.
As though letting in nearly 4 goals a game weren't bad enough, it was the style in which he did it in the confidence-sapping stretch of the season that killed the team's morale almost completely by early March. It was goals within the first ten shots ten times and within the first five shots on five occasions. It was goals on consecutive opposition shots (3 times). And it was the untimely way he faltered, such as after the team got a lead or clawed back to tie it up.
All of these things happen to Marin Brodeur once in a while (see playoffs 2009) and to the next tier down a little more. And they happen to average goalies for long stretches.
But isn't that the point? Is he or is he not above average? (A thoroughbred does not conjure thoughts of running in the pack) Perhaps more pertinent, do great goalies start as average/below-average goalies (do thoroughbreds)? To get to the bottom of it, I had a look at some nice stats.
Quality shot stats
Anyone who has been watching Carey Price over the last year (starting specifically at the Philadelphia series) must surely have noticed that good shooters with a good amount of time seem to be able to beat him more than we'd like them to. Anyone who gets sight of the top of the net seems to score. Of course, the defence is heavily to blame for letting so many good shooters get so many good shots away, but there comes a point when you have to wonder -- is Umberger a good shot. If he is, who isn't?
From a subjective point of view, once you get this idea in your mind you start seeing what you want to see. That can be a problem if a goalie lets in high shots game after game. Witness Kostadis' point in the comments to the introductory portion of this series. He notes that Carey Price makes plenty of outstanding saves in some games where we end up un-doming him. Usually because we see the eventual gamewinner as a misplay. So a more objective approach is required from someone so tainted as me, stats...
Quality of shot analysis
For this part of the analysis, I sought some evidence of shot quality from statistics to probe the question properly. The first ones I found were the Behind The Net analysis based on shot quality at 5-on-5.
Here Carey proves himself to be better than average (first pleasant surprise). Based on the average ability to save shots form the positions they came from, we should have expected Carey to let in 93 goals (92.7 actuall) on 1027 shots at even strength. In play, he only let in 88 even strength goals - saving 5 goals more than he should have - good news.
I took it a step further to do some save percentage on these numbers. Basically, I calculated how many goals each goalie saved over and above the expected and divided by the number of goals expected. What this gives us is a statistic that I have called clutch saves; it gives some guide as to what's been happening with "clutch" goaltending this season.
Carey's 4.7 goals saved over 92.7 expected goals means he saves 5.1% of shots that he would have no business saving (if he were average). Very good, I thought.
Furthermore, this percentage puts Price about 32nd among goalies who play enough to warrant consideration. If you look at NHL starters, he's 18th. And if you chuck in Varlamov for good measure, Price is 19th.
The top 5 in the league are all still alive in the playoffs:
Tim Thomas (29.2%)
Simeon Varlamov (26.6%)
Roberto Luongo (26.6%)
Nikolai Khabibulin (26.4%)
Jonas Hiller (22.6%)
Others worth noting:
Henrik Lundqvist (20.8%)
Tomas Vokoun (20.7%)
Martin Brodeur (20.5%)
Pekka Rinne (15.5%)
Steve Mason (13.7%)
Jaroslav Halak (13.4%)
Cristobal Huet (13.2%)
Yann Danis (12.3%)
Cam Ward (12.2%)
Marc-Andre Fluery (3.2%)
Chris Osgood (-6.7%)
Mikka Kiprusoff (-10%)
What does this mean?
Well, it means he's average - or at least he was for the enire season.
The problem here is that averages include all goalies who play in the NHL, not just the 30 starters. So when Pogge (worst in the league, btw) steps in an lets up 9 more goals than expected in 7 games, Carey is compared to that. What's more, for me, where he currently sits is not thoroughbred territory - too many thoroughbreds are ahead of him (some almost as young).
His save percentage, though, at even strength is still a plump 0.914, so no decisive knock-down here. Based on this analysis, his toroughbred status hangs on.
Penalty-kill save %
Behind the Net also has a whole raft of other stats if you're that way inclined. For the second look, I decided to show you goalie performance while his team is a man down. The reason I choose this is because the shot quality analysis isn't done for anything but ES, also it seems logical that shots are better set up on the PP than at ES.
These stats offer a bit of a quick and rude awakening for all those people who support Carey's thorough breeding. If you look across the season for the whole league, Carey Price is in fact the worst starter across all teams in terms of save percentage on the PK. On an average of 38.6 shots per 60 minutes of PP time, Carey Price allowed an average of 7.61 goals. That means his save % was a rather embarrassing 0.803 at 4-on-5.
Now, PP shots are harder to save you say. Of course they are. But the average NHL goalie has a save % of 0.852, and that includes every weak link there is (like Mathieu Garon who saves just over 75% of PP shots in 20 games). Some good goalies have low save percentages here (Brodeur, for example at 0.816), but many don't. Thoroughbreds shouln't, I say.
The top 5 starters in the league here are:
Nicklas Backstrom (0.923)
Henrik Lundqvist (0.918)
Martin Biron (0.894)
Simeon Varlamov (0.893)
Tim Thomas (0.888)
Others to note are:
Craig Anderson (0.910)
Jaroslav Halak (0.890)
Mikka Kiprusoff (0.888)
Pekka Rinne (0.887)
Steve Mason (0.870)
Marc-Andre Fleury (0.867)
Cristobal Huet (0.866)
Jonas Hiller (0.862)
Cam Ward (0.862)
Jose Theodore (0.845)
Yann Danis (0.833)
Roberto Luongo (0.833)
What does this mean?
Well not much on its own. If Carey had been Halak-efficient it would have meant a mere 2 goals less. It's not a case on its own, but as things add up, it certainly seems to follow the pattern. It's another hit against the thoroughbred hypothesis.
Giving a chance to win
In response to Kostadis' case that LIW is wrong about Halak > Price (which is not the point of this piece, rather whether Price = thoroughbred), I thought I could take a similar approach.
He claims, that Carey Price gave the Canadiens a chance to win in 33 games of 49 (so 67.3%), whereas Halak only gave them 52.9% chance. I'll start by pointing out neither goalies stats are based on starts, which I thought they should be. Price goes up and so does Halak, with this tweak. Halak, for his part, gave opportunity for wins in 19/33, or 57.6%.
I thought I would look at things a bit closer. For can we really say that a goalie who loses in OT always gives his team a chance to win. In reality, you say, we can. And I concede on that. But for us at Lions in Winter, we generally look at how many goals a goalie allows to decide whether that would allow a win on most nights (i.e., those where his team doesn't win 6-5). While each goalie loses a couple of games this way, this subjective method actually works in the goalie's favour, since games that are lost 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 can be counted as games he gave his team a chance to win.
By this criteria, nothing really changes. But if you get generous and say that 3 GAs is a reasonable amount for a goalie in a league where average GAA is parked in between 2 and 3 year-upon-year, then it gets interesting.
Carey Price, by the 3-goal criteria, actually gave his team a chance to win 73% of the time. And, lo and behold, Jaroslav Halak gave his team a chance to win an incredible 73% of the time. Funny that it would be equal.
By this criteria, Carey has to win. But only against Halak. It doesn't really prove that anyone is or isn't a thoroughbred. After all, no one has ever accused 9th round QMJHL alum Halak of being thoroughly bred. For that we need to look at goalies on other teams - ones that actually win.
Quickly for illustration I looked at Tim Thomas, Roberto Luongo, Cam Ward and Pekka Rinne.
Tim Thomas by the first criteria (W and OTLs) gave his team a chance to win 79.6% of the time. If you guve him the 3 goal benefit of the doubt that's 83.3% of the time.
Roberto Luongo gave 74.1% and 74.1%.
Cam Ward gave 64.7% and 76.5%.
Rinne gave 67.3% and 81.6%.
This is not a random sample, but I think it's a fair group to sample if you want to look at thoroughbreds. While Carey Price and Halak look OK in isolation, in the light of day they don't stack up to Thomas or Rinne. They come close to Luongo, but to be fair to Roberto, he did have 9 shutouts which mean automatic points (not just chance at), both our guys mustered only 1 of those. I think this category shows Carey in a much better light than the other two. What's more, given his age, I think you could argue that giving his team a 73% chance to win is pretty darn goosd. Is it thoroughbred stuff? Let me just say, I'd rather have Rinne based on this season... (is he a thoroughbred?)
One streak to skew all stats
There's a very very solid case to be made that it was all due to one bad streak. But was it just a bad streak? Did 14 games destroy everything? It's a valid argument, I concede.
For me it's about trends, though. If this were the very first slump from Carey Price, then I'm sure it would be water off a ducks back. It's not though, and a responsible scientist like myself has to ask whether the good is the aberration, or the bad. Those of us counting will note that Carey Price has had a few breakdowns since his arrival with the team. To be generous (and a bit facetious) I'll call these non-thoroughbred episodes, or NTEs. The more research-minded among us will note that he also had a pretty long NTE the season following his selection in the first round, not to mention his blow-up in the WHL playoffs that year. So to enumerate the NTEs:
1) 2005-06 Tri-City Americans
2) January 2008 Montreal and Hamilton
3) April 2008 Round 2 Montreal vs. Philadelphia
4) January and February 2009 Montreal (the aforementioned 14 games)
5) April 2009 Round 1 Montreal vs. Boston
That of course allows us to paint every stretch in between as one where the opposite position is held (i.e., a thoroughbred stretch):
1) 2006-07 All teams (Tri-City, Canada, Hamilton)
2) October to December 2007 Montreal
3) February to April 2008 Montreal (including Round 1 vs. Boston)
4) October to December 2008 Montreal
5) March 2009
On balance there are as many good games as bad in there, and most games are probably just adequate or average (less than 3 goals, saving 90% of shots). What we have is a pint glass with half a pint of beer and half a pint of air. If you go for the glass half full approach, you see the Gold medal for Canada the Calder Cup, the end of the 2007-08 season and Round 1 and the very sturdy beginning for this last season. It all adds up for you. The glass half empty perspective notices the floundering in the playoffs, the 14-game stretch to forget and the easy goals, and starts to question whether sub-NHL success will ever be translated.
I've come to the end of this and realise that despite a lot of stats, not much has changed. I haven't proved that Carey Price is not a thoroughbred, nor can we look and say that he is one. I think I would conclude that there is plenty of reason to question whether his progression will be as smoothe as some assure us it will be. I think there's enough evidence to suggest that anyone who says he's not a thoroughbred is at least as sane as someone who purports he is. I think that's all I wanted to do - prove our point of view on this isn't as crazy as some make it out to be.
What I can say with some assurance is that this season he was not a great goalie. On average he was an average goalie. Is that good for 21? I don't know.
I think we'll have to wait and see what happens by next season on this one. Maybe even wait until the next playoff test. Given that Gainey is basing our team around this guy come hell or high water, I'd recommend to anyone that hasn't already dedicated 50 blog pages to this to take the glass half full approach -- it'll be better for your sanity.
Monday, August 11, 2008
The Stack Against Halak
If Jaroslav Halak had it tough last year with Canadiens management ultra-keen to get Carey Price into the starter's role, he should wait to see how he feels a year from now.
As we know the NHL wants to solve all its ills by reducing the padding on goalies. This article from the Vancouver Province, where they have a special interest in over-sized pads (as they've invested heavily in them), tells of the changes to be expected this year and next.
What I want to know is which NHL genius thought of this part:
I mean, I know it's tough for big guys now that GMs have fans have realised that they are actually worse at playing hockey, but why do we need to favour them in this way?
Surely, the goal of pad size restriction is to open more of the net for shooters to have a look at. by discouraging the small goalie, won't the change be the inverse?
Though one has to be disappointed in the way this will affect the very talented Halak, Habs fans must also be encouraged by the fact that Timmins and Gainey opted for a huge specimen in the NHL draft this past season in anticipation that he could wear the biggest allowable padding in NHL history.
Get Missiaen eating some serious ice cream guys – the pad size is related to weight too, you know!
As we know the NHL wants to solve all its ills by reducing the padding on goalies. This article from the Vancouver Province, where they have a special interest in over-sized pads (as they've invested heavily in them), tells of the changes to be expected this year and next.
What I want to know is which NHL genius thought of this part:
The big changes are expected next year when the league is expected to go to proportionate sizing for the first time, meaning equipment will be based on goalie's size and weight.
It will have a significant impact on smaller goalies. Consider that currently Curtis Sanford, at five-foot-10, wears the same size pads as Luongo, who is 6-3.
I mean, I know it's tough for big guys now that GMs have fans have realised that they are actually worse at playing hockey, but why do we need to favour them in this way?
Surely, the goal of pad size restriction is to open more of the net for shooters to have a look at. by discouraging the small goalie, won't the change be the inverse?
Though one has to be disappointed in the way this will affect the very talented Halak, Habs fans must also be encouraged by the fact that Timmins and Gainey opted for a huge specimen in the NHL draft this past season in anticipation that he could wear the biggest allowable padding in NHL history.
Get Missiaen eating some serious ice cream guys – the pad size is related to weight too, you know!
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Meet The Bruins: Key Pillars
Go to Tobalev's Habs Preview.
So important are the playoffs that they warrant a special look at the special players on the other team for once. Of course, we'll still look at the Canadiens in depth, but this post should give people watching some idea of those guys on the ice that we suddenly finding ourselves hating with raging enthusiasm.
No, not the refs...
The Boston Bruins.
To begin, I thought I'd remind everyone of a few key thoughts:
1) The Bruins were better against all other opposition than we were this year
2) How is that possible?
3) Does it matter?
My blogging colleague explained to us why he thought the Bruins managed so many points without any one person that could be marked out. Russ from the Bruins Report (a great Bruins blog) – check it out if you have the time – said:
So, I thought I'd have a peek behind the curtains and introduce everyone to those I see as important to this scheme and the Bruins success:
The last line – Tim Thomas
Drafted by the Quebec Nordiques in 1994, if nothing else, Tim Thomas has outlasted his fellow Quebec goalie draftees Thibault, Fiset and Tugnutt. His career, however, has taken a very different path to those once Quebec starters – taking him to a professional career in Europe and back to North America. Since his reclamation from the Finnish leagues, he has had quite substantial success with the Bruins.
This season has been no exception – Thomas has posted great numbers with the Black and Gold. Following the regular season, he ranked 4th in the entire league in save percentage with a gaudy .921 rate, with a respectable 2.44 GAA and 3 shutouts. In fact, he was having a Vezina trophy season until about the end of November where he underwent a temporary meltdown. When I defined an excellent game as one with a Save% of 0.920 or more, then I was fairly surprised to see that Thomas has 37 excellent games this year (out of 57 GP). In a way this runs contrary to the story on him that he runs hot and cold. For most of this season anyway, he has been running hot.
This statement does of course need to be qualified. He has been anything but hot against the Canadiens. He has been mediocre by his own high standards, and uncharacteristically has cost his team on one or two occasions:
In particular, early goals, which threw his team into their old habits against Montreal were his and Boston's undoing on a couple of occasions.
In any case, though he may not be favoured around the league's pundits, Tim Thomas is a top goaltender, a starter through and through. However, like Carey Price, Tim is an NHL playoff rookie, so won't bring years of NHL experience to the table. He does bring some from other competitions, much like his counterpart.
If a goalie's duel develops, Boston will be in good hands. I think that's the first thing on Boston's wish list and the last thing the Canadiens would want.
The Game Maker – Zdeno Chara
Chara comes advertised as the leader of this Bruins team. He wears that C on his chest and has allegedly been key in a lot of their success this season. In fact, if you asked a Canadiens fan who typified the Bruins we have seen this season, then many I'm sure would also say Chara. He has been sub-par on many occasions against the Habs, and downright comical on others. In any case, the thing to remember here is:
As Chara goes, so do the Bruins.
To give some idea, recently Chara missed 5 games when the Bruins were sitting pretty for the playoffs. His absence coincided with 4 losses (2 in OT) and one one close win (OT). All were against teams the Bruins had previously handled quite well. He was missed to say the least. had his absence been longer, the Bruins would be done and dusted and we'd be playing the Hurricanes. Phew for that one...
Statistically, he has also had quite a successful season. 17 goals and 34 assists for a defenseman is strong. His 17 goals put him 2nd in the league among Dmen. His 51 points rank 10th in the league. He has had 20 outstanding games (which I defined as games with either 2 points or with a +2 rating). In those games, Boston got points in 18. One was against the Habs, so blame the ghosts (like Sinden), not Chara.
But it's never really been the statistics with Chara has it? When he played with Ottawa (after he learned to skate), he was Montreal's worst nightmare. Whenever we played Ottawa, we could only realistically hope for about 10minutes in their zone – most of it when Chara was off the ice – because the big man and Redden were so effective at smothering the forwards. Something changed though – the rules. Now, Buffalo can exploit him, Carolina can and as we've seen, so can the Habs.
Chara is still an outstanding defenseman with an amazing shot, but he has been disarmed of one of his main weapons since the lockout – holding. Despite this he can still be excellent if teams choose to play a throwback style of hockey where screening and wrestling are preferred to passing and skating. Just another reason the Habs need to set the agenda for this series.
The Game Breaker – Marc Savard
Quite a tag for little Marc Savard from Ottawa. Not so little if you believe Yahoo, who call him 199 lbs or something. Other sites weighed him without his soaking wet equipment on and have him at a stocky 190ish.
He is the Game Breaker on the Bruins because if the Bruins need a goal they don't have too many other places to look. they will certainly look to Marc first (assuming he even plays).
Savard's NHL career has taken many twists and turns following a revelation or two in junior. Drafted and let go by New York, then tried but released in Calgary, finally success but disinterest from Atlanta, he has now landed in Boston with a huge raise.
Strange that his employers always seem to let him go without much of a fight. Even Calgary, who needed a passer of his pedigree and learned the small-man lesson the hard way with Martin St. Louis. The truth behind these occurrences probably lies somewhere between defensive disaster and costly for what you get. If rumours are to be believed, Marc has turned around his defensive game at the behest of Claude Julien, and now provides value for money on the Bruins.
Maybe not so surprising when you consider none of his teams have ever made the playoffs until this one. In fact, should he play, this will be Marc Savard's first ever playoff game at the tender age of 30.
In looking at his game log, I looked for multiple point games. You figure, top scorer, lots of multiple point games. Well, let's say Marc likes to be more consistent. He did have a respectable 19 multiple point games. 14 were Bruins wins, they got points in 16. Strikingly, only 3 were games where he managed more than 2 points. However, when you think about it, this probably says more about the Bruins than it does about the man.
One thing you could never deny about Marc is his ability to pass the puck. It goes back to WJC in 1993 even. People who watch him on a regular basis talk about his passes finding players who still thought they were fighting to get away from coverage. His mind thinks ahead of defenders, his stick can carry out his wishes (though apparently his wishes do not include shooting very often). This what people said about all the great passers. What's more, this season Marc ended up 3rd in the NHL for assists, just behind Joe Thornton and Datsyuk. Last season, third behind Thornton and Crosby. The man keeps good company. certainly a player to keep an eye on. besides, passes like the ones described are a thing of beauty no matter whose shoving the disc.
We have been hearing that Marc Savard will be available to play. However, if he doesn't it will be a gaping hole for the Bruins. To look beyond Marc Savard for a Game Breaker is hard work with Bergeron and Kobasew out. The obvious candidate will be Marco Sturm, whose more beneficiary than benefactor when it comes to making plays.
The Great Hope – Phil Kessel
The final man in the Bruins equation for me is Phil Kessel.
Less production in his draft year, he eventually slipped to 5th overall behind some serious prospects. If anyone remembers the year before that though, Phil Kessel was the American Sydney Crosby. In fact, in 2005, he was putting up more than a goal and 2 points per game in the US National development program. In other words, the boy has pedigree and the boy has skill.
What must not be forgotten is that he is still a young man. 20 to be exact. But for me, in his first NHL playoff series, he will be key to the Bruins chances.
For one thing, as we've mentioned, the Bruins don't have a wealth of scoring options, especially if you factor in the injured players. For a second thing, Phil Kessel is probably the best natural goalscorer among them anyway, any day.
A coach who knew his back was up against it – vs. the team that had defeated his rather unimaginative strategy 8 times in a row – might choose to put a wildcard like Kessel in a key role. Say, with a passer who could thread passes that other people wouldn't have thought of. Claude Julien is not this coach. At least he has not shown a willingness to be him yet – even with his team in dire straits following Chara's injury. In the last meaningful game, Kessel played with Schaefer and Sobotka. He managed to score anyway. in the last game against Montreal, more third line action with Krejci and Lucic, all while Kobasew gets to play with Marc Savard.
We have been lucky to see our young players come through this year in Montreal. it has been a huge factor in our success. If Boston are to succeed, I feel the same will be a requirement for them, with Kessel success leading the way. If he is let off his leash, Montreal should have someone new to concern themselves with.
Go to Tobalev's Habs Preview.
So important are the playoffs that they warrant a special look at the special players on the other team for once. Of course, we'll still look at the Canadiens in depth, but this post should give people watching some idea of those guys on the ice that we suddenly finding ourselves hating with raging enthusiasm.
No, not the refs...
The Boston Bruins.
To begin, I thought I'd remind everyone of a few key thoughts:
1) The Bruins were better against all other opposition than we were this year
2) How is that possible?
3) Does it matter?
My blogging colleague explained to us why he thought the Bruins managed so many points without any one person that could be marked out. Russ from the Bruins Report (a great Bruins blog) – check it out if you have the time – said:
The Bruins were good against the rest of the East because they have, for the most part, played a solid, simple defensive scheme in their own zone that allowed them to minimize scoring chances down low, and kept the majority of the shots to the perimeter. Tim Thomas was more effective playing behind this style of defense, and allowed him to modify his "crazy flailing everywhere like Hasek only not as good"
style.
So, I thought I'd have a peek behind the curtains and introduce everyone to those I see as important to this scheme and the Bruins success:
The last line – Tim Thomas
Drafted by the Quebec Nordiques in 1994, if nothing else, Tim Thomas has outlasted his fellow Quebec goalie draftees Thibault, Fiset and Tugnutt. His career, however, has taken a very different path to those once Quebec starters – taking him to a professional career in Europe and back to North America. Since his reclamation from the Finnish leagues, he has had quite substantial success with the Bruins.
This season has been no exception – Thomas has posted great numbers with the Black and Gold. Following the regular season, he ranked 4th in the entire league in save percentage with a gaudy .921 rate, with a respectable 2.44 GAA and 3 shutouts. In fact, he was having a Vezina trophy season until about the end of November where he underwent a temporary meltdown. When I defined an excellent game as one with a Save% of 0.920 or more, then I was fairly surprised to see that Thomas has 37 excellent games this year (out of 57 GP). In a way this runs contrary to the story on him that he runs hot and cold. For most of this season anyway, he has been running hot.
This statement does of course need to be qualified. He has been anything but hot against the Canadiens. He has been mediocre by his own high standards, and uncharacteristically has cost his team on one or two occasions:
In particular, early goals, which threw his team into their old habits against Montreal were his and Boston's undoing on a couple of occasions.
In any case, though he may not be favoured around the league's pundits, Tim Thomas is a top goaltender, a starter through and through. However, like Carey Price, Tim is an NHL playoff rookie, so won't bring years of NHL experience to the table. He does bring some from other competitions, much like his counterpart.
If a goalie's duel develops, Boston will be in good hands. I think that's the first thing on Boston's wish list and the last thing the Canadiens would want.
The Game Maker – Zdeno Chara
Chara comes advertised as the leader of this Bruins team. He wears that C on his chest and has allegedly been key in a lot of their success this season. In fact, if you asked a Canadiens fan who typified the Bruins we have seen this season, then many I'm sure would also say Chara. He has been sub-par on many occasions against the Habs, and downright comical on others. In any case, the thing to remember here is:
As Chara goes, so do the Bruins.
To give some idea, recently Chara missed 5 games when the Bruins were sitting pretty for the playoffs. His absence coincided with 4 losses (2 in OT) and one one close win (OT). All were against teams the Bruins had previously handled quite well. He was missed to say the least. had his absence been longer, the Bruins would be done and dusted and we'd be playing the Hurricanes. Phew for that one...
Statistically, he has also had quite a successful season. 17 goals and 34 assists for a defenseman is strong. His 17 goals put him 2nd in the league among Dmen. His 51 points rank 10th in the league. He has had 20 outstanding games (which I defined as games with either 2 points or with a +2 rating). In those games, Boston got points in 18. One was against the Habs, so blame the ghosts (like Sinden), not Chara.
But it's never really been the statistics with Chara has it? When he played with Ottawa (after he learned to skate), he was Montreal's worst nightmare. Whenever we played Ottawa, we could only realistically hope for about 10minutes in their zone – most of it when Chara was off the ice – because the big man and Redden were so effective at smothering the forwards. Something changed though – the rules. Now, Buffalo can exploit him, Carolina can and as we've seen, so can the Habs.
Chara is still an outstanding defenseman with an amazing shot, but he has been disarmed of one of his main weapons since the lockout – holding. Despite this he can still be excellent if teams choose to play a throwback style of hockey where screening and wrestling are preferred to passing and skating. Just another reason the Habs need to set the agenda for this series.
The Game Breaker – Marc Savard
Quite a tag for little Marc Savard from Ottawa. Not so little if you believe Yahoo, who call him 199 lbs or something. Other sites weighed him without his soaking wet equipment on and have him at a stocky 190ish.
He is the Game Breaker on the Bruins because if the Bruins need a goal they don't have too many other places to look. they will certainly look to Marc first (assuming he even plays).
Savard's NHL career has taken many twists and turns following a revelation or two in junior. Drafted and let go by New York, then tried but released in Calgary, finally success but disinterest from Atlanta, he has now landed in Boston with a huge raise.
Strange that his employers always seem to let him go without much of a fight. Even Calgary, who needed a passer of his pedigree and learned the small-man lesson the hard way with Martin St. Louis. The truth behind these occurrences probably lies somewhere between defensive disaster and costly for what you get. If rumours are to be believed, Marc has turned around his defensive game at the behest of Claude Julien, and now provides value for money on the Bruins.
Maybe not so surprising when you consider none of his teams have ever made the playoffs until this one. In fact, should he play, this will be Marc Savard's first ever playoff game at the tender age of 30.
In looking at his game log, I looked for multiple point games. You figure, top scorer, lots of multiple point games. Well, let's say Marc likes to be more consistent. He did have a respectable 19 multiple point games. 14 were Bruins wins, they got points in 16. Strikingly, only 3 were games where he managed more than 2 points. However, when you think about it, this probably says more about the Bruins than it does about the man.
One thing you could never deny about Marc is his ability to pass the puck. It goes back to WJC in 1993 even. People who watch him on a regular basis talk about his passes finding players who still thought they were fighting to get away from coverage. His mind thinks ahead of defenders, his stick can carry out his wishes (though apparently his wishes do not include shooting very often). This what people said about all the great passers. What's more, this season Marc ended up 3rd in the NHL for assists, just behind Joe Thornton and Datsyuk. Last season, third behind Thornton and Crosby. The man keeps good company. certainly a player to keep an eye on. besides, passes like the ones described are a thing of beauty no matter whose shoving the disc.
We have been hearing that Marc Savard will be available to play. However, if he doesn't it will be a gaping hole for the Bruins. To look beyond Marc Savard for a Game Breaker is hard work with Bergeron and Kobasew out. The obvious candidate will be Marco Sturm, whose more beneficiary than benefactor when it comes to making plays.
The Great Hope – Phil Kessel
The final man in the Bruins equation for me is Phil Kessel.
Less production in his draft year, he eventually slipped to 5th overall behind some serious prospects. If anyone remembers the year before that though, Phil Kessel was the American Sydney Crosby. In fact, in 2005, he was putting up more than a goal and 2 points per game in the US National development program. In other words, the boy has pedigree and the boy has skill.
What must not be forgotten is that he is still a young man. 20 to be exact. But for me, in his first NHL playoff series, he will be key to the Bruins chances.
For one thing, as we've mentioned, the Bruins don't have a wealth of scoring options, especially if you factor in the injured players. For a second thing, Phil Kessel is probably the best natural goalscorer among them anyway, any day.
A coach who knew his back was up against it – vs. the team that had defeated his rather unimaginative strategy 8 times in a row – might choose to put a wildcard like Kessel in a key role. Say, with a passer who could thread passes that other people wouldn't have thought of. Claude Julien is not this coach. At least he has not shown a willingness to be him yet – even with his team in dire straits following Chara's injury. In the last meaningful game, Kessel played with Schaefer and Sobotka. He managed to score anyway. in the last game against Montreal, more third line action with Krejci and Lucic, all while Kobasew gets to play with Marc Savard.
We have been lucky to see our young players come through this year in Montreal. it has been a huge factor in our success. If Boston are to succeed, I feel the same will be a requirement for them, with Kessel success leading the way. If he is let off his leash, Montreal should have someone new to concern themselves with.
Go to Tobalev's Habs Preview.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Does three goalies constitute depth?
On the day former Habs prospect Christopher Heino-Lindberg is due to face the pride of Ljubljana and his Kings as they moonlight in Central Europe. I thought it was fitting to address the rumours of a trade with the west-coasters.
Whether it’s full-time random rumour generators or casual fans, 3 goalies in Habs camp seems to equate to trade these days. We’ve been hearing for some time that Halak would be traded to San Jose or Los Angeles (real trade rumours always implicate the teams furthest apart geographically, remember? – hey where’s Anaheim?). Others want to wait and then trade Huet as soon as the boys prove their worth.
Our goaltender depth, if you go by the chatter in the air, is unprecedented in Habs history, maybe even the NHLs. After all, we do have Cristobal Huet (all-star), Jaroslav Halak (21-year old AHL success) and of course Carey Price (junior all-world golden child).
I think the depth is nice, and things are looking up for the Habs; however, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We were talking about great depth last year too, with Huet and Aebischer. We know how shallow it looked in February. Furthermore, an injury and we don’t have much depth, two injuries and we are panicking. Halak and Danis on the big club anyone? How about Cedrick Desjardins? We’ll start callin LA about their AHL goalie.
Basically, I don’t think Gainey should be openly looking for a trade. Simple.
- Danis is the only expendable body in the mix, and his value (judging by his safe passage through waivers) is higher to all of us than it is to opposition GMs.
- Huet’s value is not very high right at the moment and would only take a hit if his GM were making calls trying to unload him
- Halak is a prospect, plain and simple. Apart from last season (which some GMs may view as an anomaly), his value is not great either
- Price has value. It’s high. But there’s no way we should actively shop him. We have to play hard to get if we deal this one and draw out more than Rucinsky and Thibault in return (apologies to Kovalenko…)
As it stands, we have a nice situation for the team. Huet and Halak/Price with the Habs, then Price/Halak with the Bulldogs. Their status means they could be shuttled up and down without clearing waivers, which is a huge plus. Danis, not so. He has to clear waivers to make the jump. The waiver-free movement makes keeping both Halak and Price very sensible.
Now, if someone comes offering a top offensive talent or defense prospect – for the sake of argument let’s say Jack Johnson – then we should listen.
Even then, I would hope to get an NHL-capable goalie with waiver-free movement capability in return to keep that flexibility. After all, management has worked hard to create depth so the Montreal Canadiens can win. If a trade gets us closer to winning, and hurts the Bulldogs, so be it. If we trade a top goaltending prospect for a top defenseman/forward prospect and more, then so be it.
In Bob we trust, right?
Whether it’s full-time random rumour generators or casual fans, 3 goalies in Habs camp seems to equate to trade these days. We’ve been hearing for some time that Halak would be traded to San Jose or Los Angeles (real trade rumours always implicate the teams furthest apart geographically, remember? – hey where’s Anaheim?). Others want to wait and then trade Huet as soon as the boys prove their worth.
Our goaltender depth, if you go by the chatter in the air, is unprecedented in Habs history, maybe even the NHLs. After all, we do have Cristobal Huet (all-star), Jaroslav Halak (21-year old AHL success) and of course Carey Price (junior all-world golden child).
I think the depth is nice, and things are looking up for the Habs; however, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We were talking about great depth last year too, with Huet and Aebischer. We know how shallow it looked in February. Furthermore, an injury and we don’t have much depth, two injuries and we are panicking. Halak and Danis on the big club anyone? How about Cedrick Desjardins? We’ll start callin LA about their AHL goalie.
Basically, I don’t think Gainey should be openly looking for a trade. Simple.
- Danis is the only expendable body in the mix, and his value (judging by his safe passage through waivers) is higher to all of us than it is to opposition GMs.
- Huet’s value is not very high right at the moment and would only take a hit if his GM were making calls trying to unload him
- Halak is a prospect, plain and simple. Apart from last season (which some GMs may view as an anomaly), his value is not great either
- Price has value. It’s high. But there’s no way we should actively shop him. We have to play hard to get if we deal this one and draw out more than Rucinsky and Thibault in return (apologies to Kovalenko…)
As it stands, we have a nice situation for the team. Huet and Halak/Price with the Habs, then Price/Halak with the Bulldogs. Their status means they could be shuttled up and down without clearing waivers, which is a huge plus. Danis, not so. He has to clear waivers to make the jump. The waiver-free movement makes keeping both Halak and Price very sensible.
Now, if someone comes offering a top offensive talent or defense prospect – for the sake of argument let’s say Jack Johnson – then we should listen.
Even then, I would hope to get an NHL-capable goalie with waiver-free movement capability in return to keep that flexibility. After all, management has worked hard to create depth so the Montreal Canadiens can win. If a trade gets us closer to winning, and hurts the Bulldogs, so be it. If we trade a top goaltending prospect for a top defenseman/forward prospect and more, then so be it.
In Bob we trust, right?
Friday, June 29, 2007
To Trade Huet?
Trade Huet? Some recent posts of fans have been looking at trading Huet as a solid strategy for the future. That's lunacy in my books – I'll tell you why.
1) Experience. Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak combine for 40 odd years between the two of them. This is Montreal, there will be 3-4 game losing streaks. They need help getting through those
2) Mentorship. Cristobal Huet is a class act. He is calm, intelligent and well spoken. Whoever our next goalie is could learn a lot from his demeanour and approach to the game. He is an excellent mentor for whoever would back him up, or who he backs up.
3) Hamilton. Keeping the winning going in Hamilton would be a good thing. Look at Buffalo and New Jersey. Those two teams benefit from farm systems that commit to winning. Winning breeds winners and that's what we want. What could be better than having the number one regular season AHL goalie (Halak) or the Calder Cup MVP goalie (Price) leading our other assets down there.
4) French language. Huet is French, he gives great, clear, intelligent interviews in French (and English). Keeping his voice in there provides good analysis of events for the RDS gang – who cover every minute of the Habs season.
5) Trade value. Huet's value has never been lower since he won that streak of games back in February 2006. Trading him would not return value. Trading Price would, his value has never been higher, and his potential probably got an upgrade too. Halak may be seen as a flash in the pan, but he did post amazing AHL numbers then translated that to the NHL. Not shabby. His value is high too (only limited by his size).
6) Depth. Beyond Halak and Price, the goalies aren't exactly mind-blowing. 3 NHL-capable goalies is depth, 2 is thin. Remember when Roy used to get injured? Not good in the post-Hayward years...
7) Finally, Huet is good. He could have won the Vezina two years ago with a few more games. He was an allstar last year.His play up to December (barring early October) was sensational – top 3 in GAA and save %. A slip in play in January/February saw his fortunes slide. I don't think the losing was all his fault.
Don't trade Huet. There's no good reason to do so in my opinion.
1) Experience. Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak combine for 40 odd years between the two of them. This is Montreal, there will be 3-4 game losing streaks. They need help getting through those
2) Mentorship. Cristobal Huet is a class act. He is calm, intelligent and well spoken. Whoever our next goalie is could learn a lot from his demeanour and approach to the game. He is an excellent mentor for whoever would back him up, or who he backs up.
3) Hamilton. Keeping the winning going in Hamilton would be a good thing. Look at Buffalo and New Jersey. Those two teams benefit from farm systems that commit to winning. Winning breeds winners and that's what we want. What could be better than having the number one regular season AHL goalie (Halak) or the Calder Cup MVP goalie (Price) leading our other assets down there.
4) French language. Huet is French, he gives great, clear, intelligent interviews in French (and English). Keeping his voice in there provides good analysis of events for the RDS gang – who cover every minute of the Habs season.
5) Trade value. Huet's value has never been lower since he won that streak of games back in February 2006. Trading him would not return value. Trading Price would, his value has never been higher, and his potential probably got an upgrade too. Halak may be seen as a flash in the pan, but he did post amazing AHL numbers then translated that to the NHL. Not shabby. His value is high too (only limited by his size).
6) Depth. Beyond Halak and Price, the goalies aren't exactly mind-blowing. 3 NHL-capable goalies is depth, 2 is thin. Remember when Roy used to get injured? Not good in the post-Hayward years...
7) Finally, Huet is good. He could have won the Vezina two years ago with a few more games. He was an allstar last year.His play up to December (barring early October) was sensational – top 3 in GAA and save %. A slip in play in January/February saw his fortunes slide. I don't think the losing was all his fault.
Don't trade Huet. There's no good reason to do so in my opinion.
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