The First Cut Is The Deepest: The Reaction To Leblanc's Demotion

Louis Leblanc was cut from Canadiens camp yesterday. You may have heard.

Tempest in a teapot  is what comes to mind as descriptor for what came from the announcement that a player with a marginal chance at helping the Canadiens on the 4th line after an abysmal season would be given some time in Hamilton before getting another NHL minute. But, putting aside the irrational and oddly broadcasted feelings of his girlfriend (tennis star Aleksandra Wozniak), the reaction to cut across all quarters is much more interesting than the real implications for Leblanc.

To understand why this might be interesting at all, one has to put back some of the context.

Rewind To 23 Cups: Blogger Finds OT Too Random

After much study, "Behind The Flames" blogger and fan of the downtrodden has decided that overtime cannot be counted upon to determine the result of games.

In an analysis began with the de novo hypothesis: The Leafs can't be worse than the Canadiens, he managed to get to the bottom of all the problems with the league scoring system and put the Habs right back where they deserve to be.


(As of Monday, December 21)

Team	GP	W	L	T	BWL	W%	GD	PW%
Ottawa	35	13	13	9	5-4	0.500	-2	0.490
Atlanta	34	13	13	8	5-3	0.500	+6	0.529
Boston	34	10	11	13	6-7	0.471	+2	0.512
NYR	35	14	16	5	2-3	0.471		0.479
Toronto	36	12	16	8	1-7	0.444	-17	0.424
Tampa Bay	35	9	14	12	3-9	0.426	-14	0.424
Philadelphia	34	12	17	5	3-2	0.426	-6	0.468
Florida	37	9	15	13	6-7	0.419	-13	0.440
NYI	36	8	16	12	5-7	0.389	-26	0.367
Montreal	37	8	18	11	8-3	0.365	-16	0.415
Carolina	35	6	20	9	3-6	0.300	-37	0.327

As you can see his analysis cunningly removes all wins, losses and goals scored in OT. Since he doesn't like overtime anymore than he likes the shootout, he groups all extra time results in the same way, regardless of whether the winning goal happened in open play or on the shootout.

Montreal has been the lucky recipient of 5 more wins than losses, which is 4 more than expected based on their real-time results (where nothing strange ever happens like it does in overtime). Toronto on the other hand has been so unfortunate as to lose 7 of their 8 games, which is a travesty based on the outstanding regulation play record.


Work extended into the past

His worked has inspired one of his followers to extend this excellent work well into the past. Leaf Ericson has also seen the light regarding the unfairness of overtime and has used the bulk of his internet-based research to submit a petition to the league to set the records straight.

Of particular interest to Canadiens fans is his impending civil suit to have the Hockey Hall of Fame recognise the true Stanley Cup final of 1993.

Those who wrongly uphold OT results as real wins will probably remember something about a Canadiens Cup win in 1993. But, in the new, more sanitary NHL, without Bettman scoring, that final could and would have never happened.

You see, the Canadiens in those playoffs only actually won 6 regulation games in those playoffs, with 3 regulation losses, in 20 games. Anyone with half a brain will know that means paltry 0.575 hockey.

The actual playoff winners, the LA Kings played to a stunning 11 regulation wins, with 7 losses, in 24 games, which of course is 0.583 hockey.

Strangely, he also includes a Leafs Cup – the Leafs put up more points than the Canadiens 23 points with 24 of their own – as part of the thesis (something about a high stick that happened before their goalie let in a goal and then lost another game). But as there is nothing but purity of a statistical heart behind the findings, we'll take his word for it.


Final sage words

In closing, Behind the Flames commented on the solid work of Leaf Ericson with reference his smashing success at proving the hypothesis he so wanted to prove.

"One thing is clear", he states, "the Maple Leafs are and always have been better than the Canadiens. No fluke results, or overtime scoring should ever distort that fact."

Amazing what you can prove with some determination.

Putting History To Bed My Habs Centennial

I had a great weekend.


Not least because I can stop searching through the archives for a while. Not least because it felt like we finally put the unruly child that was the Canadiens Centennial celebrations to bed.


December 4th was excellent

I have to say, watching the Canadiens game last Friday night was certainly the highlight of this whole year of celebration so far. The pre-game skate, the player presentations, Viggo presenting Le Demon Blond in French, Gordie Howe holding up Maurice's #9, the sweater retirements, Patrick Roy's bursting enthusiasm – they couldn't fail to eclipse even the previous high of Patrick Roy night.

The faces
One of the greatest thrills of the evening was to see all the old faces come back to visit. I think we all knew the ubiquitous Richer and Houle as well as all the greats would. But, honestly, did anyone expect to see Brent Gilchrist? Mats Naslund? Seeing those alums back for the first time in ages was brilliant. And to see their wide smiles as they recalled their times playing in front of us all, well that was brilliant too.

The current team
After the pre-game extravaganza, I was resigned that the game on this night would be a secondary attraction. However, in one of the most unexpected turns of events all evening, the current team showed once again, if not for the very first time, that they wanted to continue the tradition of effort, of innovation, of winning at least as long as they wore the sweaters.

Tobalev did the full recap, so I won't o over everything. But might I say that the performances of a few of the players on this night were nothing short of stunning.

We start with Carey Price, who following his discovering that working hard in practice is worthwhile, took a massive step in this game by going beyond solid angle play to simply willing a win from himself and ultimately his teammates. If there was a final lesson for Carey, it was this. Big games will come again and soon, but we can at least allay our fear that all the good work will crumble under the application of heat. Carey won the first true must-win game since the playoffs.

Words escape for the display that Cammalleri left on the ice. His hat trick a stunning display of timing and opportunism – something the Canadiens most recent 50-goal man in the audience must have recognised from the early 1990s. We've seen hat tricks and nights of dominance before, but seldom on such big occasions as this. The fact he didn't take a full night off the night before is certainly an endorsement for the hockey player Bob Gainey managed to sign this summer.

Others made sure to turn up as well – Metropolit looked ready to play 60 minutes, Gomez decided to showcase the passing only he possesses on the team, Marc-Andre Bergeron playing as if he's still playing for ice time (I guess he is), Sergei playing for the team, and more.

I have some experience with big occasions in sport myself. I know there are three types of athletes – those that find energy and inspiration from the bigger stage, those that simply offer what they always offer and those that buckle under the pressure of the whole affair. There's optimism to be taken from this Centennial night: it seems we have more vaulters than bucklers.

Surprises
One of the things that made the experience of watching the event so special for me was being able to watch the game as a naive viewer.

Usually, I might have spent some time surfing various blogs and tracking twitter in the lead up to the game. Thanks to the World Cup draw and a last minute job, I had to forego the last 5 hours of ceaseless conversation about the celebrations. As such, I was positively giddy to spot Patrick Roy leading the Habs out the gate, genuinely surprised to watch M. Bouchard and Mr. Lach step to centre ice with the banners to watch them raised amidst proud tears. Coming into the event naive made it so much more special in the end – a throwback to another time almost.

Tobalev, who watched the whole thing unfolding on RDS and CBC informed me that is was not just so for him and those watching the pre-pre-game. Apparently Fracois Gagnon went for the scoop and gave away the ending – a sweater retirement kept secret from even Elmer Lach himself until Friday am.

The National Post cites 4 pm as the time when rumours began to pour onto the internet about the details of the ceremony which was set to begin a mere 2 hours later.

I understand the internet – heck, I'm a blogger – but the question that comes to mind:

What on earth for?

Why would someone like Francois Gagnon who just learned of a surprise that has been hush hush for months decide to spill the beans minutes before the wonderful surprise. Why did Robert Lefebvre (who I know values a good touching moment in history) set right to writing this article when he heard the news?

My experience was a salient reminder of the power of surprises, of pleasant surprises. It was a reminder that seeing Patrick Roy ("No it isn't it can't be. Quick. Quick come see this...") and the sweater retirements without prior knowledge was better than any rush I could have achieved by being the 47th person to read the tweet. For me it was the most satisfying end to a year of constant speculation, research and looking back. A reminder that I'm still as big a fan as I ever was.


Putting the history bed

Anyway, December 7th, 2009 now. As many have said it is now time to take a break from the history game.

I'll be happy to put the history on the backburner for a while as we turn our focus to real hockey games. But unlike the Jack Todds of the world, I don't think that means we must bury this forever. I think Habs history has had a long day and could use a rest, but this team still has stories for us to discover, still has lessons to offer the fans of today.

I hope we can reawaken the history again after a good solid rest.

Prepping For The NightRDS Top 100, Celebrations (and a Game?)

You remember voting for players 91-100, right? About 22 months ago?

Well RDS is revealing the top 100 players as determined by their "democratic" vote.

After they got first choice on chunking players into the 100, then by groups of ten, RDS gave us the wonderful opportunity to select how to order the players within the top 10 (or in the case of the top 20, the whole top 20).

I do mock, but let's face it, at least they asked you. Some people just go ahead an publish these things, as if they have some sort of authority on the matter.

As it is such a fun occasion (well, admit that it is for guys who spent far too long making their own lists), I thought I'd share with you some other dissections of the top 100 Canadiens of all-time that should prime you right up for the RDS (I mean fans') verdict.

To start with, I wanted to share a few more lists with you. Below is a spreadsheet that contains the top 100 lists from Lions in Winter, Eyes on the Prize, Habs World, Ken Campbell's outrageously named "Habs Heroes: The Definitive List of the 100 Greatest Canadiens Ever" and one Ryan Coke's more off-beat (and by off-beat I mean Lyle Odelein is on the list) foray into the game. For those who thought we were mad with some of the inclusions we made, take heart in seeing that at the end of the day the authors of other blogs go just as mad in the course of list-making activities.



If you still haven't had your fill, then you'll want to use whatever spare minutes you have checking out the following sites to sate your historical urges:

Joe Pelletier's Greatest Hockey Legends – with profiles, stories and more

Puck Daddy – with a more humorous look at this night/year/5 years of celebration

Eyes on the Prize – with a list of links to his excellent in-depth articles on so many of the topics from across the century


Enjoy the coverage tonight. Enjoy the ceremonies and the history. I'd say enjoy the game, but that'd be a bit rich.

Happy century, see you tomorrow.

Top 100 Montreal Canadiens Players of All Time

Happy Birthday Montreal Canadiens!

As you know, we've been putting out some decade-by-decade lists of the Montreal Canadiens players from the last 100 years. The list I have for you today is the integrated version of the list, the list where you see whether I like Lafleur or Richard, Plante or Dryden, Malone or Gagnon.

I'm sure you'll all have some fun perusing the list. I encourage all to do it and come back to us with their own amendments, as the discussion today could not be about anything more than the history of the Habs – and with last night's debacle, the more distant, the better.

Just a quick note on how we came to this list. All the editorial team and some friends of Lions in Winter submitted a list and basically we averaged the picks. It was a very democratic process, and I think it shows. As a result, I think we've come up with a pretty good list. Having looked through the history in depth, i can tell you one thing – there have been more than 100 good players on this team, and picking between all of them is a sport in itself.


Without further ado, the 100:

LIW Ranking	Name	Position	Years
100	Ray Getliffe	C	1939-45
99	Billy Couture	D	1916-20, 1921-26
98	Craig Ludwig	D	1982-90
97	Brian Bellows	LW	1992-95
96	Gilles Tremblay	LW	1960-69
95	Ken Mosdell	C	1954-56, 1957-59
94	Shayne Corson	LW	1985-92, 1996-2000
93	Bill Reay	C	1946-53
92	Petr Svoboda	D	1984-92
91	Howard McNamara	D	1915-16, 1919-20
90	Floyd Curry	RW	1947-58
89	Marcel Bonin	LW	1957-62
88	Mark Napier	RW	1978-84
87	Claude Lemieux	LW	1983-90
86	Phil Goyette	C	1957-63
85	Eric Desjardins	D	1988-95
84	Jimmy Gardner	LW	1913-15
83	Doug Jarvis	C	1975-82
82	Pierre Bouchard	D	1970-78
81	Jim Roberts	D	1963-77
80	Denis Savard	C	1990-93
79	Mathieu Schneider	D	1987-95, 2009
78	Alfred Lepine	C	1925-38
77	Johnny Gagnon	RW	1930-40
76	Rejean Houle	LW	1969-83
75	Pierre Mondou	C	1976-85
74	Doug Risebrough	C	1974-82
73	Pierre Turgeon	C	1994-96
72	Albert Leduc	D	1925-33, 1934-35
71	Billy Boucher	RW	1921-27
70	Terry Harper	D	1962-72
69	Rod Langway	D	1978-82
68	Pierre Larouche	C	1977-82
67	John Ferguson	LW	1963-71
66	Yvon Lambert	LW	1972-81
65	Bobby Rousseau	RW	1960-70
64	Alexei Kovalev	RW	2004-09
63	Mario Tremblay	RW	1974-86
62	Andrei Markov	D	2000- (Active)
61	Charlie Hodge	G	1954-55, 1957-61, 1963-67
60	Jean-Guy Talbot	D	1954-67
59	Mark Recchi	RW	1994-99
58	Odie Cleghorn	RW	1918-25
57	Kirk Muller	LW	1991-95
56	Dick Duff	LW	1964-70
55	Jose Theodore	G	1995-2006
54	Michel Larocque	G	1973-81
53	Albert Siebert	D (LW)	1936-39
52	Georges Mantha	D	1928-41
51	Herb Gardiner	D	1926-29
50	Ken Reardon	D	1940-42, 1945-50
49	Stephane Richer	RW	1984-91, 1996-98
48	Rogatien Vachon	G	1966-72
47	Bobby Smith	C	1983-90
46	Bud O'Connor	C	1941-47
45	Ralph Backstrom	C	1956-71
44	Bert Olmstead	LW	1950-58
43	Pete Mahovlich	C	1969-78
42	Joe Malone	C	1917-19, 1922-24
41	Chris Chelios	D	1983-90
40	Claude Provost	RW	1955-70
39	Jean-Claude Tremblay	D	1959-72
38	Frank Mahovlich	LW	1970-74
37	Sprague Cleghorn	D	1921-25
36	Jack Laviollette	D	1909-18
35	Vincent Damphousse	C	1992-99
34	Tom Johnson	D	1947-63
33	Mats Naslund	LW	1982-90
32	Lorne Worsley	G	1963-70
31	Guy Carbonneau	C	1980-94
30	Jacques Laperriere	D	1962-74
29	Steve Shutt	LW	1972-85
28	Saku Koivu	C	1995-2009
27	Georges Vezina	G	1910-26
26	Guy Lapointe	D	1968-82
25	Didier Pitre	RW	1909-13, 1914-23
24	Sylvio Mantha	D	1923-36
23	Emile Bouchard	D	1941-56
22	Jacques Lemaire	C	1967-79
21	Bill Durnan	G	1943-50
20	Aurele Joliat	LW	1922-38
19	Elmer Lach	C	1940-54
18	Dickie Moore	LW	1951-63
17	Yvan Cournoyer	RW	1963-79
16	Bob Gainey	LW	1973-89
15	George Hainsworth	G	1926-37
14	Henri Richard	C	1955-75
13	Bernard Geoffrion	RW	1950-64
12	Serge Savard	D	1966-81
11	Hector Blake	LW	1935-48
10	Patrick Roy	G	1984-95
9	Ken Dryden	G	1970-79
8	Edouard Lalonde	C	1909-11, 1912-22
7	Jacques Plante	G	1952-63
6	Doug Harvey	D	1947-61
5	Larry Robinson	D	1972-89
4	Howie Morenz	C	1923-37
3	Guy Lafleur	RW	1971-85
2	Maurice Richard	RW	1942-60
1	Jean Beliveau	C	1950-71

Hope you enjoyed that. Do let us know where you stand, and include your top 10s if you can...

Habs Injured Return: Avoiding O'Ver-expectations

Gionta may be out, Markov may be in rehab, but the cavalry is coming.

The cavalry in the immediate sense consists of hapless Georges Laraque (who admittedly will be a minor upgrade over even more hapless Greg Stewart) and Ryan O'Byrne.

Ryan O'Byrne had a very nice training camp as you all know, and elevated his game to the point we had all penciled him into our aspirational lineup charts. But more than training camp ever could, his recent lay-off has elevated him to new heights. At first, it was merely an alternate defenceman, but as time went by and Habs fans needed better excuses for losing, O'Byrne became one of the three top 6 defencemen that were supposedly out of the lineup.

There's nothing wrong with a bit of hype for the opposition, but it's when you start believing your own hype that things can go awry. In this case, judging from the chatter, many Habs fans have bought their own hype, along with several extra installments for the future. Ryan O'Byrne may well be a top 6 defenceman by the end of this season, but to affirm him as one (in the leaguewide sense), before he's had chance to avenge his abysmal season of 2008-09, is premature. What's more it leads to over-expectation.

I think on the eve of his re-introductions, it's worth taking a step back and remembering just who Ryan O'Byrne is...


Who's Ryan?

Well prior to his ascension into the role of 7th, sometimes 8th defenceman for the Montreal Canadiens Ryan O'Byrne had a long career as a defenceman. The records (which I can find) stretch back to the time when he played with the Salsa of Victoria, BC (his hometown). As a 17 and 18 year-old, Ryan plied his trade with the comically-named West Coast outfit. Joining the 2000-01 league champions, Ryan helped to bridge their gap to being a bottom feeder again by helping them to a 3rd place finish in his rookie campaign. His personal contribution is hard to uncover, though offensively I would expect it to be something like he offers in the NHL, as he chipped in for 2 goals and 9 assists in 52 games. The next season was much the same story. However, his trade to the champion Nanaimo Clippers towards the end of the season must have raised some attention, as he was drafted by the Habs following his team's playoff exit.


That summer the Canadiens drafted O'Byrne with their 4th pick (in the 3rd round) behind Andrei Kostitsyn, Cory Urqhart and Maxim Lapierre. Following his good news, he packed his bags for Big Red (aka Cornell University) where he played hockey for the next three seasons. Never one to overdo things in the statistical department, O'Byrne did put on weight, play a decent game against the tougher opposition and put up some goals for his team (an insight into his time in Cornell can be obtained from this interview).

The next move for Ryan was to sign on as a professional with the Canadiens organization. I have to say that at that point in time, the news of a Ryan O'Byrne contract was akin to hearing about Andre Benoit last spring – interesting for the hardcore, largely overlooked by those who deal in the reality of the Habs. It is a compliment to Ryan then that he upped his standing so much in one year with the Bulldogs that he was 18 months later donning the bleu, blanc, rouge in Montreal. That year in Hamilton was a good one for him, as he played on a very good team and won a championship.

The rest of the story you know. And so it is that a big player from BC progressed quietly through the ranks to make an NHL roster as a reserve defender. To expect big jumps from a player that has steadfastly kept to small jumps at this point is hopeful, hopeful indeed.


Late bloomer?

I think any sensible read on Ryan O'Byrne's early career in the BCHL (not WHL), and then NCAA comes to the conclusion that there was a late bloom in there somewhere for the big man. A read of his first NHL steps seem to indicate the late bloom is something that is happening all over again.

Again, it would take nothing away from Ryan's achievement here if his blooming ended at this very stage. He has progressed further than any Victoria Salsa player (circa 2002) should have. To hope for another small bloom is one thing – perhaps with the help of Hamrlik it could happen. However, let's be careful not to buy into hype that leaves us disappointed when a second big bloom does not suddenly appear from under the rock of a 5-week layoff.


What to expect?

I can only speak for myself, but what I expect from O'Byrne tonight (in the best case) is a slightly better Jay Leach. As time goes by, should confidence remain, I would expect him to regain that trainig camp form, which makes him our 5th/6th in a draw with Mara.


Setting the right conditions

One note I would like to make is that for any of this positive stuff to happen, the conditions for O'Byrne must be right.

Those who remember how he struggled with Hamrlik last season will certainly see the problem of pairing young O'Byrne with Marc-Andre Bergeron. In that pairing, O'Byrne becomes the tutor, not the tutored and all is asked of him up front.

Hopefully Jacques Martin realising this will pair him with a complementary player like Hamrlik, which may not only benefit O'Byrne, but also the cascade of defenders who follow.


As far as tonight goes, and his baptism by fire, go easy on the big #3. Playing with Bergeron against Ovechkin and Backstrom after 1.5 competitve games in 6 months might not be kind...

Gainey At The Tipping Point: Is Gionta An Injury Too Far?

It's official, Brian Gionta is injured.

According to RDS reports, Gionta will be out for an undetermined length of time.


This injury sends ripples through the whole lineup, meaning a less effective #1 line and PP, to be served up with less effective lines #2-4 and PK. Gionta is the fourth major injury for this team in the young campaign, and the second of serious consequence.

The length of Gionta's injury means everything to me here. If he's out a couple of weeks – fine, we suck it up. If it's a month or more – Gainey has some critical decisions to make, because he will have lost his best defender and his best all-around forward while work continues with a skeleton crew.

You all know how I felt about Gainey replacing Andrei Markov with an offense-only cast-off. Bergeron has replaced one element of the Markov offering while falling excruciatingly short on the 15 other areas of his proficiency. It was never a tolerable situation for me, but now that Gionta is removed from the equation, it is especially unpalatable.

If, in the worst case, Gionta is out for 4-5 weeks, the team could be floundering through. A month from Tuesday would mean 15 games. Should the go just about 0.500, with a generous helping of luck and contribution from the suddenly awakened, the team could still be a playoff outsider at the 36-game mark. Given that they've been a low-scoring sub-500 unit with 8-goal Gionta to this point, one would expect nothing more.

The way I see it, Gainey has played the gamble with wait and see to this point. Now his wait and see is becoming more clear – a struggling team who may struggle more. It speaks to decision time for me.


Where to finish?

There are only two places worth finishing in this league: at the top and at the bottom. To finish the middle, as the Canadiens and Leafs and Oilers can attest to is to live behind the rotation of teams that go from top to bottom, bottom to top.

Playing without Gionta is not the issue here. The issue remains playing without Markov. Playing without Markov and vying for the playoffs with a full team is just about realistic to the less sceptical among us. But playing without Markov on a depleted team who've already dug themselves a hole to get out of? Doesn't that look like a losing battle?


What do I suggest?

The specifics of the moves are beyond me at this point. However, I think Gainey will need to make his decision now before it's too late. Simply put, I propose that he decide that we are vying to be in the top teams (ergo, make a move to help that happen) or that we are vying to be in the bottom teams (ergo, make moves to a) help this happen and b) be in better position for next season).

Going for it at this point, isn't crazy. It is conceivable that a simple addition (through shipping prospects or picks) could land the right player to carry the team through 15 games and bolster what we've been seeing in action when Gionta does return.

The opposite scenario would require some strong will and a more maneuvering, but could turn the Canadiens into a better outfit for next season, just as it worked for the Flyers 3 years ago. Assets like Halak would have to be shopped, as would some players of full and actual value (i.e., not Gomez) – getting a few first rounders this season might make it worthwhile.

I don't know where I want this to end up (top or bottom), but I can tell you that I don't want to stumble into 9th/10th in the East and come into next season with a 2009 Mr. Hockey playing defenceman from Minnesota. Tough decisions lie behind all the successes in this league – I think it's time Gainey stopped putting his off.

Don't you think?

Habs At The Twenty Game Mark

Details

Date: 17/11/09
Position in standings: 12th in East, 24th in NHL
Prognosis: Uncertain

Losing record: 9-11-0

Habs on scoring leaders (top 30): None
Habs among statistical leaders (top 30, major category): Cammalleri, Gionta (T25, G); Plekanec (T19, A); Halak (20, GAA); Halak, Price (T29, SV%)

Defining play of the year

Were this a positive time for Habs fans, I'm sure I would be picking a positive memory from the past 6 weeks. But as it happens, I'm choosing the moment that kind of sums up the season to this point.

What can I tell you, the play had a bit of everything we have been ruing since the season began – terrible coverage, running around on the PK, flat-on-stomach-goaltending from Price and a painful opposition goal. As Viktor Stallberg outwaited Price and passed to a wide open Matt Stajan for his 2nd goal of the season (19 games later, he now has 4), I don't think we were particularly feeling the pain of anything more than falling behind the pitiful Leafs on opening night. But the next morning, we found that the real significance of the play was not the goal, but the gash on Markov's leg that was to represent the gaping abyss on the Canadiens back line for the majority of the next 19 games.

Season Dome

Forwards

Tomas Plekanec - 20-Game Puck
All summer, there was chatter about players who would have to do better if these Habs were to have any chance at all of amassing significant points in the standings. Surprisingly, many times Tomas Plekanec was an afterthought – written off after a statistically-poor 2008-09. This season has been a different kettle of fish for Pleks. We have him named to the dome 13 times and player of the game 5 times in 20 games. He's the scoring leader, the PP engine and is always the best player when things turn sour. If the Habs have been inconsistent over 20 games, imagine how sour it could have gone if Mr. Consistent would have thrown in the towel with some of his teammates.

Mike Cammalleri
As advertised. That's really all I can say about Mike Cammalleri. He is quick and has a very quick shot. He has 8 goals, ranking him 25th in the league. And his MO is shooting – which is why he's top ten in that category. Like Pleks, Cammalleri has been a fixture in the dome (13) and has 4 game pucks to his name. People will get on him for his streakiness, but must realise that all scorers operate this way. Perhaps the one area to be improved over the next quarter of a season is PP output, which may be helped by playing him in position.

Brian Gionta
For anyone who sighed when we signed Gionta (as I probably did), this 20 games has been eye opening. He has netted 8 goals, just like Cammalleri and been a main threat on most nights. More than all this, what makes him stand out most are his instincts for the goal, his willingness to take punishment to win the puck and the chance, and his clever play. The third forward in our standings, he has amassed 9 domes and 3 game pucks.

Defencemen

Roman Hamrlik
The minute Andrei Markov went down with injury was the minute Roman's brief expanded by 50%. When Gainey replaced Markov with an inept PP-only defender, Hamrlik became a 30-minuter, probably for the first time in his career. To say he has responded well is fair, though it has not been flying colours. Hamrlik has garnered the most domes among defenders with 11, but his 1 game puck speaks to the fact that the 6 at the back have relied on the forwards and the goalies almost completely this season. Still, what he offers the team is a solid top-level defender who can pinch when necessary.

Jaroslav Spacek
Spacek has been the other beneficiary of a very weak defensive unit (domewise). But he has also quietly put together some positive numbers with his ice time, under unlikely circumstances. Take for instance his influence at even strength: when he is on the ice, the Canadiens score 2.72 G/60, while allowing only 2.38. Offensively that places him among the top tier of the league, in the land of forwards. Defensively, he could be better, but at least his balance sheet reads positive.

Goaltender

Carey Price
Perhaps no one has been more hot and cold than Carey Price. Winning a couple of games early for points in the bank and a return to elite save percentage territory of late have been positive. In between all that, though, a short stretch of game changing lapses and league-worst save-making. On the whole, Carey wins the dome. His 4 game pucks are outstanding, and add to his 11 domes form 20 games. What's more, his strong form has been so strong of late that it is pulling his statistics from the basement and onto page 1 of NHL goaltending leaders.

Positive also for Price has been his (and Halak's) response to greater demands in practice. Between the two of them, they have turned quite a corner and can hopefully continue to hold onto the energy that got them back on track – even share a little with a winger, maybe.



All domes
Scroll through using the arrows below the slides.



Player standings

Name	Game pucks	Domes	LIW Pts	First star	Second star	Third star	3 Star Pts
Tomas Plekanec	5	13	112	0	3	0	9
Mike Cammalleri	4	13	100	2	0	2	12
Brian Gionta	3	9	72	0	3	2	11
Carey Price	4	11	70	1	1	2	10
Roman Hamrlik	1	11	45	0	0	1	1
Glen Metropolit	1	7	40	1	0	0	5
Scott Gomez	1	6	36	1	0	1	6
Jaroslav Spacek	0	11	33	0	0	0	0
Jaroslav Halak	1	9	30	0	1	0	3
Josh Gorges	0	10	30	1	0	0	5
Andrei Kostitsyn	0	6	24	0	0	0	0
Paul Mara	0	5	15	0	0	0	0
Marc-Andre Bergeron	0	3	9	0	0	1	1
Travis Moen	0	1	4	1	0	0	5
Matt D'Agostini	0	1	4	0	0	0	0
Guillaume Latendresse	0	1	4	0	0	0	0
Kyle Chipchura	0	1	4	0	0	0	0
Maxim Lapierre	0	1	4	0	0	0	0
Max Pacioretty	0	1	4	0	1	0	3
Ryan O'Byrne	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Georges Laraque	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Yannick Weber	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Gregory Stewart	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan O'Byrne	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Hal Gill	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Shawn Belle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mathieu Carle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jay Leach	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Andrei Markov	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Comments

I could dwell on a lot of things here, but I think most has been covered. It's probably a bit cliche to try and take positives from an overwhelmingly negative period of play, but I think one should. For one thing, the past is past and if we intend to watch anymore games form here on, we might as well delude ourselves a bit in preparation. For another thing, the difference between positive and negative in this league is paper thin.

Anyway, the positives. All those forwards in the dome are positive outcomes. Spacek being there makes Gainey's signings look neutral at least. Metropolit being anything close to his form this far is positive. Winning 9 games is positive and so is winning so many in OT before the shootout, and even those shootout wins.

Papering the cracks aside, more players have to start pulling the weight on this team. The dome has done what is expected ad more, but may themselves one day tire. I would hope that our number one centre might start outplaying our number four centre and that maybe just two of our extraordinary 1-dome wingers will start vying for recognition now and again. If nothing but these couple of things happen, I feel the next 20 games could come out on the right side of 500.

I could go on, but best not to stretch the truth. As we go forward, let's hope the team looks forward, as we should. Let's hope the team looks on this season as the mighty 2007-08 Canadiens once looked on a second period 5-goal deficit to New York with a second goalie getting peppered and roasted by a Rangers PP. If that game could turn into the best game of the decade for the most fickle of fans, who knows what could happen to us over the next 6 months.

Learning To Live Without Markov

As the game unfolded the other night against Tampa, it marked the 16th game of the season that we had begun without our all-star Andrei Markov. It may not sound like much, but it's the first time since Andrei made the NHL grade that he has missed more than 15 games in a single season.

In the past sometimes, it seemed like an injury to Markov was a one-way ticket to losing streak. However, this time around, the Canadiens have done an OK job of battling for points and scrounging some wins. As we descend into the next 30 games without Andrei, I thought I'd take a glance at some of the stats with and without him manning the back line.


Winning and losing

It's sometimes hard to test the value of any given player, because the experiment consists of so many variables. Even with a mere 24 game sample from the regular season and a lone playoff series, I don't think we'd be reaching a false conclusion if we suggested the Canadiens are a much worse outfit without Andrei Markov. Really the stats speak for themselves:

24 games, 5 wins, 19 losses, 13 points. It's not flattering for the rest of the guys is it? Certainly when you compare that record to the record with him in the lineup over the same period (168-107-30 for 366 points).

If you pro-rate the stats to an 82-game schedule the Habs from 2005-09 without Markov would have been a pitiful 44 point outfit (17-55-10) – not seen since the days of expansion newbies and Pittsburgh dogging it. With him in the lineup, their pro-rated points total would be a solid 96-point group (45-29-6).

But the impact goes well beyond the wins and losses. As you can see from the limited sample, what has tended to happen when Markov has been missing has shown his talent at both ends of the ice. In the 24 previous games, goals for dropped by one full goal per 60 minutes, while goals against rose by an equally remarkable 0.7 per game.


Special teams

Being that Markov is an all-star who perennially flirts with the scoring lead among defenceman, it's perhaps not surprising to see a drop in PP efficiency wen he's not around to distribute. But take a look at the PK in his absence – a reminder of his second personality:

With the best overall PP in both 2006-07 and 2007-08, and a pretty decent scoring clip before and after, it's pretty safe to say that Markov is one of the premier QBs of the circuit. In fact, you get 5 PPs with Markov in a game, you'd be disappointed not to score a goal.

The Canadiens, however, have been blessed with some insulation for Markov on the PP at times – Souray and Streit, for example in 2006-07 – so his absence has cost but not too too drastically. Glance at the PK situation without Markov, though, and get an idea of what he means at the defensive end. Whether it be quick movement and anticipation, or using his passing skills to find the way out of the zone, his skills on the PK have been missed to the tune of nearly 12.5%. If you translate that to a whole season – with about 360 penalties – you're talking about 45 goals.

I suppose a forward moving to the point is much less of a downgrade than having a 5th defender playing with regularity on a penalty kill.


2009-10

This season, Markov was lost to serious injury a mere 50 minutes in. Given our understanding of the previous 24 games without him, there was understandable gloom at the time. I certainly felt some major doubts.

If you look across the stats, you can see that the PP is suffering as much if not more than it has ever done, but that goalscoring is holding truer. You can see that PK is sub-standard, but still within a few goals of the Markov standard and the overall goals against have been holding closer as well. You can fret about each of those, especially compared to league averages. Nonetheless, here we stand 17 games in, and 6 weeks closer to February, with 16 points from 17 games. Not great, perhaps, but a minor miracle given the precedent.

I think it speaks a little bit to some of the moves that were made over the summer (many of which have received a proper thrashing from fans), specifically:

1) Gionta
He's been a goalscorer from unconventional plays which has helped and a solid contributor up front. What's more, he's been able to tip the ice in the Habs favour by a large margin thus far.

2) Spacek
I said I liked the signing at the time, but I didn't really know what to expect. Well, he's no Markov on the PP (not even close), but he eats minutes and has been on the ice for 22 more chances at even strength than he has allowed, and 41 overall.

3) Letting Bouillon go
A hard move to put through given his popularity and his familiarity with the RDS crew, but one that needed to be made. Last season he was on the ice for a GA every 20 minutes he played. Had he been under contract as a #6 this year, that'd be a goal a game. I don't want to disparage a player I loved, but I think his last legs were correctly recognised.


As I said, there weren't miracles here, just quiet steps in the general direction. Could a team really be as bad as the Habs have been without Markov in the past over a sustained period? Hard to say. I don't think after the 0-7-1 end to last season, anyone would have asked to put it to the test.

I think if anything good is to come from this injury to Andrei it will be the shedding of an over-reliance on a single player in all aspects of play. Perhaps when he comes back he can be introduced gradually, rather than straight into 30 minutes a night.


Who misses Markov most?

Finally, I wanted to note that though we all miss Markov, none might miss him more than Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak. If only for his poise on the PK alone, Carey might have added 100 points to his sub-standard PK save rating, and he and Halak might have been able to count on zone clearances actually happening.

Low Marks No More: A New Start For The PP

Remember last season when it took Gainey 4 infuriating months to admit he made a mistake in running a PP without a good shot from the point? It appears he may have learned something.

Tonight will mark the debut of the new Matt Schneider/Mark Streit/Sheldon Souray: Marc-Andre Bergeron, and thanks to a bit of luck he'll be starting in a game that should suit him quite nicely – the Atlanta Thrashers. A team that allows league high shots against, a team that is due for punishment for their thus far lucky balance in save and shot percentage.


In an earlier post, I made it quite clear that Marc-Andre Bergeron is not an adequate replacement when facing 4 months without Markov. Heck, he said it himself:

“I’m sure people know that Andrei Markov is a top defenceman in the NHL and he’s irreplaceable,” Bergeron said Monday after his first practice with the Canadiens. “I’m not here to replace Andrei Markov. I want to be myself and do my best to help the team win.”

However, like MA himself, I do think he can help.

The first area he can help is obviously the PP. Provided we aren't playing in Western Canada, we should count on getting a few of these, and having Bergeron set up on the right point for a shot will help with our options. And while he certainly isn't as muti-talented as markov to come in and run a PP, he does have shot and sense enough to do an adequate imitation of Matt Schneider and Mark Streit.

Begeron


Streit



The second, more underrated impact Marc Andre will bring after his shot will be his ability to play adequate NHL defence against lower line forwards. No, it won't really help lessen the loads of Gorges, Spacek and Hamrlik, but he should at least ensure that Mara and Gill are kept in check. At the very least it means we won't be seeing Gill/Weber or Belle/Mara for tonight.

While I'm not quite as convinced as the player himself that he's not got one dimension to outweigh his others (i.e., offense >> defence) by a long way, I can't argue with his +/- over a career on some, let's face it, pretty awful teams. It stands him in good stead to be a neutral player on this currently awful team.


Finally, Bergeron adds the Marc with a "C" this team needs in the face of that book published by Robert Sirois this week. In fact, Marc-Andre is just about the type of player that good old Bobby Sirois was hoping to see more of the NHL – a more fringe-type player without elite level skill. The type of player, he'd argue would come from English Canada about 98% of the time.

I think this is a good bit of timing for the Habs, because it does help to diffuse the bomb that was their roster make-up in a week that will surely be full of talk about the tables and stats from the hardcover. After all, Gainey has increased his Quebecois francophone quotient by 33% this week, all while demoting an Ontarian and holding another English Canadian with similar skills (Subban) back.


Let's not expect miracles

In adding a 4th/5th defenceman with a good shot like MA Bergeron, the Habs are taking a small step forward. But let's not go into tonight's game expecting any miracles. Marc-Andre wasn't signed by 30 different GMs this summer, and that was not their accidental oversight. And I have to diverge from Bob Sirois here too in thinking that it was purely discrimination based on upbringing.

Those GMs preferred to fill the positions that Bergeron fills just fine with rookies with upside, with veterans that can out-muscle a star or two, with more intriguing options. But like Bouillon and Dandenault before him, he is a player that can ably perform the brief of a lesser used defender, and he also has that shot.

I sort of expect a goal from him tonight, just because it would ignite an interesting debate, and that's what tends to happen in Montreal. but if I had done a preview fr Bergeron coming into the season, I can tell you I'd have put him at 10 goals and 14 assists (mostly rebound creating shots).

Tonight We See Habs At Leafs Preview

A little sneak preview of tonight's game. Though it's not all based on carefully weighed stats (I hope that's alright), Game #1 gives an opportunity to have some more fun, before results cloud the real picture...


The (alleged) lines

Pacioretty - Gomez - Gionta
Cammalleri - Plekanec - Kostitsyn
Latendresse - Lapierre - D'Agostini
Moen - Metropolit - Laraque

Markov - Spacek
Gill - Mara
Gorges - O'Byrne

Price

• Don't like Pacioretty on the first line, no matter how much good skating he does on his goalless shifts – if I were Sergei, I'd be upset at this too
• Do like Cammalleri with Plekanec
• Defence should change if Hamrlik is healthy – Gorges and O'Byrne is a mistake
• Price the starter – more questions abound on the meritocracy in Sergei's head

The opposition
Maple Leafs.

Popular gravitation to the word truculent – because it's the first word in the dictionary that new GM found that he could apply to his team. Funnily, hopes for descriptors beginning with "Contendin", "Goo", "Grea", "Playoff-boun" and "Skille" were thrown out in early July, search for new tag was commissioned.

Key strengths: PR, sales

Key weaknesses: Forwards, goaltending, and if you go by last year, defence (3.49 GA/G)


The strategy
Shoot, shoot, shoot. Test goalies and defence's weakness with the other part of hockey (aka, playing the puck) early and often. Don't get sucked into a fight – it's their only advantage and they know it.


The momentum
0 playoff wins vs. 0 playoff wins – a toss up. Leafs and Habs is always a toss up (recently).


The relevant
1) RDS "Zone de Match" – not ready
2) Tobalev's Game Reviews – very ready


The irrelevant
1) Pat Hickey's bland follow-up to his enticing title: "Price the fly in ointment"
2) Everything Brian Burke says


Quote for the day
(Not quite Jose Mourinho, but a nice polite slap in the face from Gainey)
On dismissing the genius' plan:

"It's a little out of character as to where the NHL is going," Gainey said. "But hockey is a tough sport. Hockey is a physical sport."

(Source)

Canadiens Season Preview Remaining Goalies And Prospects

The more astute among you will have noticed I got overexcited and missed any discussion of outgoing goalie Marc Denis – such is the impression he made on me last season. Well, NHL stats-wise it would have been a waste of time. And now I'm at the end of the line here, I haven't the energy to spend on an AHL journeyman no longer with the team. Today is my last installment of the preview and it encompasses NHL/AHL player Sanford, next in line Desjardins and the goaltending prospects.

Sanford et al


Curtis Sanford

NHL Season	GP	Starts	Pulled	Min	W	L	OTL	GAA	Save %	SO
08-09 (VAN)	19	15	3	973	7	8	0	2.59	0.906	1
07-08 (VAN)	16	9	2	679	4	3	1	2.83	0.898	0
06-07 (STL)	31	26	5	1492	8	12	5	3.18	0.888	0

Personal save profile
	Average save percentage at even strength Made slightly more saves than expected at even strength Was above average on the PK Played behind a well above average defence at ES and on the PK

Legend


Stats notes
I don't know much of Sanford beyond what you see here, so this should be interesting. Here's what I think:

1) As good as his defence
Last season, Curtis put up some nice numbers – better than Price's even. But do not be fooled, that whole right side of the pie shows that he got some very nice defensive help from his teammates. The 0.910 expected save%, particularly, is a very nice starting point to be giving a goalie – it leaves little to do to crack the league top 30 list. By the same token, his stats in St. Louis were poor on a poor team – no heroics then.

2) Don't expect full starts
Last season he played in 19, but only started 15. In 3 of those 15 starts he was pulled. Similarly, the previous year, there were 7 complete games with 9 incomplete ones. That's 19 complete games in 2 years (and 16 partial ones). I wouldn't expect anything different this year, health of the current team permitting. An able back-up to be sure, but not one seen as a starter in this NHL anymore.


3) Settling in
After briefly trying to crack the NHL as starter, and then as top-2 man in St. Louis, it seems that Curtis may be settling now into that third man role where he can thrive. More occasional starts with more regular work on the farm have translated into better stats in both locales.


Topham on Sanford:

When I heard we had signed Curtis Sanford, my mind immediately went back to the pitiful St Louis Blues. The first I heard of Sanford was when he wrested the starting job form Patrick Lalime in St Louis back in 2005. That season was effectively his NHL rookie season and he put up some good numbers. But ever wanting to fit the mould of future Habs goalie, the next year when given his golden ticket, he stumbled (that'd be that 0.888 season you can see above). From that moment it seems the league has said thanks but no thanks to Curtis Sanford as starter or even backup starter.

But since then, he's also pulled his game together. 2 seasons in the NHL were spotted with fewer games but improvement. Parts of a season in the AHL were marked by absolute dominance. Consider then, when Gainey was looking for a goalie to help Cedrick Desjardins and possibly stand in for some minutes if an NHL guy went down, that Curtis Sanford was not such a daft choice.

I expect this season will be a mirror of Marc Denis' season last year, with pretty much the entirety of a season spent in Hamilton, shining for the most part, with a brief if any call-up to the Bell Centre. His experience of being part of the league winning, and always ambitious, Moose franchise should aid and abet the morale in Hamilton – a reminder that though dreams lie in the NHL, winning in the AHL while being paid hundreds thousands to do it ain't half bad. Any mentoring of Cedrick Desjardins at this point would be a big bonus, because the Habs are staring down the barrel of a gun with goalie prospects at the moment. I think over the season he will be asked to pass the torch to Desjardins, something that may spell the end to another brief veteran goaltending career in Hamilton.


Where Sanford will start 2009-10: Starting goalie in Hamilton

Where Sanford will end 2009-10: Co-starter in Hamilton

Key (NHL) stats: 5 GP, 0 GS



Potential call-up

1) Cedrick Desjardins

Just who is this Cedrick Desjardins that we are meant to be trusting with our fortunes if disaster strikes? You can be excused for not knowing the answer.

Cedrick is an undrafted youngster who has taken the road less travelled to get to where he is in the depth chart. From very very humble beginnings as a 1-game winner (20 starts) on the 11-game, Crosby-targeting, tanking specialists that were the 2002-03 Rimouski Oceanic he steadily improved as a goalie in junior. 2003-04 was OK, but it was 2004-05 and 2005-06 where he shone. In 04-05, he backstopped a Crosby led team to the Memorial Cup finals (though they lost to a stacked Knights squad). The next year, with equally impressive stats for the Q, he took Quebec (with Radulov and Esposito) to the Memorial Cup finals again – this time to win.

From there, he had a training camp invite but nothing more from the Chicago Blackhawks. And then, though the stingy Montreal media would never give Gainey credit for it, the French Canadian (NB, to be exact) goalie was scoped by the Habs organization. With Halak and Danis in the picture, Cedrick was to offer depth, and that first season he did (in Cincinnati), where once again his numbers improved. The following year, 2007-08, he was to be called up to the Bulldogs for an extended stint and performed very well (0.909 in the AHL). he'd end the season in style by starring in the Cyclones' capture of the Kelly Cup – a third championship final in four years. That brings us to last season where Desjardins was chief deputy to Marc Denis all season long. In 30 games, he once again improved his numbers (0.919 and 2.55 this time) to mark another season of progress. In the end, it was probably his strong play that sealed Denis' fate and paved the way for a Sanford/Desjardins tandem.

I note that he is a possible call up because his numbers in the AHL so far are very credible. We've seen him in camp against NHLers now too, and he fared well enough to keep that credibility. With other young goalies at the top level, it doesn't seem like Desjardins is here for the Canadiens. However, if he takes another step forward, he could well make things interesting by the trade deadline – making himself, Sanford or one of the NHLers bait for organizational improvements.


2) [Fill in blank]

If 3 goalies sustain injuries, Gainey will need to move as there is nothing looking anything like an NHL player beyond Desjardins in this system.

Loic Lacasse might have had a place here, but the 2004 draft pick, who put up some nice stats in his first stint in Hamilton showed the patience of Jaroslav Halak's agent and has committed careericide in the first degree by signing a contract with the NAHL. Oh, heady days.



The next wave

1) Robert Mayer

Though born in Czech, he represents the Swiss, and with a name like Mayer it's not hard to fathom why. The Canadiens signed Mayer during the summer of 2008 after his first season with the Saint John Sea Dogs of the QMJHL. His 2008-09 was once again spent in new Brunswick, and while his personal stats took a leap in the right direction, the Sea Dogs he was leading were left disappointed in their quest for silverware.

It says the Canadiens assigned Mayer to Hamilton after his sojourn in Montreal for training camp, but that was only temporary. He should be the top goalie the next level down – a replacement for the departed Lacasse. Hopefully he'll get the lion's share of the work in Cincy, so he can take the next step in development and provide us with a bit of proper depth at this position.


2) Jason Missiaen

Perhaps in the future we will get a chance to witness Missiaen skating up to "The Monster" after a sweep of Toronto in the playoffs (OK, sweep of the Marlies?). The sooner the 6'3" Swede is made to look like a dwarf and not a troll, the better – then we can put that stupid nickname to bed.

As for Missiaen, there isn't really much more to say than that he is very big (6'8" by most accounts). Drafted by the Canadiens in 2008, probably on a bit of a flyer, he is still playing junior hockey this season. After taking what seemed to be backwards steps with the Petes last year, Missiaen seems to have started well this season as their new full-time starter. As with Mayer, any improvement will be welcomed. But it's hard to see him unseating Price, Halak or even Desjardins at any point in the future. Still, where there's a limb, there's a way – and he has lots of limb, his pads must make Giguere's look like toys.


3) Petteri Simila

The Canadiens scouting of goalies seems to have become a little lax, wouldn't you say? I mean, I know it's good we have two guys under the age of 25 in the NHL. And that if all goes well the goaltending position could be sealed and delivered for a decade and a half; but perhaps one criteria on top of height?

Petteri Simila is the midge of the Canadiens junior goalies, a mere 78" tall. What we do know about him is that he was drafted with the very last pick in the NHL draft (basically a free agent signing if you ask me). Someone somewhere must have caught one of the Karpat back-up's games and decided he was worth a look. Still, let's not assume too much, the scout didn't bother to mention it until the draft was basically over.

I look at Simila as a try-out really, no different than Desjardins or Mayer – the fact he was drafted being irrelevant. This season's try-out for the big man will be in the Niagara Falls area with the IceDogs. Though he'll wear the logo which enshrines Don Cherry's pitbull for the year, we can rest assured that the luminary himself won't be interfering with our prospect, since he sold the team a while back.

Simila has an uphill battle to prove himself to IceDogs brass, let alone Habs brass. The season has started with him in the back-up role. If he can wriggle into starting position and do something of note, another camp might be in his future. Then again, Canadiens prospects are so thin on the ground at his position merely being able to tie skates by next summer might be enough.

Canadiens Season Preview NHL Goalies

For those that have been tiring at the previews over the last week (I know, defensive defencemen, yawn), this should perk you up. The goaltender preview. You know we've been hard on Price and aren't afraid to point out his blemishes. I know some of you don't like it. Should be a good mix for some discussion.

Price - Halak


Carey Price

NHL Season	GP	Starts	Pulled	Min	W	L	OTL	GAA	Save %	SO
08-09 (MTL)	52	49	1	3036	23	16	10	2.83	0.905	1
07-08 (MTL)	41	40	2	2413	24	12	3	2.56	0.920	3

Personal save profile
	Slightly above average save percentage at even strength Made more saves than expected (based on shot quality) at even strength Was among league worst at making saves on PK (worst among starters)

Legend


Stats notes
Carey had a few missteps in the second half of last season and it shows in his statistics. While even I would have bought the thoroughbred line in January, but was seriously sceptical of being told I shouldn't believe anything but in Gainey's patronising post-season talk. While I have covered Carey's season in much more depth elsewhere (Are These Thoroughbred Stats?), I'll do the highlights from the stats here today:

1) Very sound at even strength
One thing you'll notice from the special goalie pie is that Carey Price has a very good save percentage at even strength. Playing behind a defence that is letting up shots that should go in 9.5% of the time, he makes sure that only 8.6% go in. From watching his play, I can tell you this is what I like. When the play is at normal tempo, without any added complications, he covers the angles and makes more saves than an average goalie would.

2) Bad last season when shooters had time
I think the PK save percentage is quite an interesting one. While the stats sites haven't run the same expected save % numbers on these stats, I have tried to paint the picture myself. For Carey, the picture isn't good. Price was pretty much the worst goalie in the league on the PK last year. And while apologists tell us the defence let him down, that bright green segment tells us that compared to most goalies in the league, Carey was actually getting decent defence, even above average at times. My interpretation of this is that Price hasn't adapted his game to the PK yet. While at ES, his amazing positioning and movement is more than enough, on the PK it isn't. On the PP shooters enjoy more time and free positions, they can set their feet for shots and even pick corners without the pressure of defence. Goaltending against this kind of attack is typically difficult, but can be improved with quickness and reflexes. Carey's 0.803 save percentage tells us he's not up to the standard of his peers in those skills yet.

3) Defence never as good as it could have been
When you see a 0.920 save percentage on a first place team, you shouldn't then glance left and see 2.56 GAA. When a team has goalies that make more than the expected rate of saves, it seems wasteful to then turn around and allow more than the average amount of shots. Apart from the help he got on the PK (and decided not to take), Carey hasn't been as insulated as you might hope a very young goalie would be. This is not an excuse, merely an observation. I would be remiss not to also note that many do manage more with less.


Carey's career has taken in more highlights and lowlights in 2 years than many veteran goalies have had in a career. From great to merely good, we must hope he turns the trending of his progression around, because even sticking on good at this point may not be enough.


Tobalev on Price:

Carey started the year well, but injuries, All-Star festivities, the Centennial, the expectation to win and a whole bunch of other issues seemed to affect him in a very negative way. His problems (even at his best times) have always been his inability to rebound from a bad goal (or stint) and his glove hand - these two areas were a huge concern in pretty much every game he played from January onwards. I think that last winter was when we, the team and even Carey may have realised that he was no Dryden or Roy; no, for now, he was average and he'd have to work to progress. The defence surely let him down on numerous occasions (as did the offence), but at the end of the day he simply wasn’t good enough (or as good as he had been) to take us anywhere; he was one of the main reasons we almost missed the playoffs.

The one good thing heading into this year is that Carey will get much more support from his teammates on a nightly basis. I think that the general consensus is that we have a better coach, a better system and better defencemen. All of this may turn Carey’s off nights (or weeks or months) into something that we can work with. I am not too concerned with his numbers, except for one – wins. If he can find a way to let in one less goal than the other keeper and find ways to bounce back from rough goals/outings, then he may indeed be here for the long haul. I am afraid, however, that if he picks up where he left off last year then we will eventually have some choices to make. I for one am not sold on him being the centerpiece of the next two decades for this team, and he’ll have to play quite well to change this mind. That said, all I want is for us to win games and for now we know we’ll have to give that a shot with Price back there.

Gainey will make sure, if healthy, Carey plays in 50-65 games (regardless of performance), so you should expect to see 25-35 wins. I predict 2 shutouts (the defence is better after all) and slightly improved numbers; 2.60 GAA and .914 Save %.


Where Price will start 2009-10: Starting goalie

Where Price will end 2009-10: Starting goalie

Key stats: 33 W, 2.60 GAA, 0.914 save%



Jaroslav Halak

NHL Season	GP	Starts	Pulled	Min	W	L	OTL	GAA	Save %	SO
08-09 (MTL)	34	33	3	1931	18	14	1	2.86	0.915	1
07-08 (MTL)	6	4	0	285	2	1	1	2.11	0.934	1
06-07 (MTL)	16	16	2	912	10	6	0	2.89	0.906	2

Personal save profile
	Above average save percentage at even strength Made more saves than expected (based on shot quality) at even strength Among league leaders at making saves on PK

Legend


Stats notes
Because there are only 2 goaltenders, this preview certainly does lend itself better to head-to-head comparisons. The debate is likely to once again rage and settle and rage and settle as to who to start in important games (it is Montreal). I can only start it off here by pointing out that Halak, last season was the better Canadiens goalie on the whole, but that really he was the better of two average goalies:

1) Very similar to price at ES
Although you'd never think it from watching them both play at ES, both Halak and Price are well above average. Halak's pie does look different, but a closer look at the numbers show that although he snuck into a higher quintile, raw save percentage and raw expected save percentage were very similar.

2) Excellent last season on the PK
If the two were all but the same at ES, PK is where their fortunes diverged. While Price was league worst, Halak flirted with the Backstroms and Lundqvists of the league with his 0.890 rate of efficiency. To extend my theory on Price, I believe that is because Halak has better reflexes and is better at improvising at this stage of his career – two skills that serve him well under bombardment.

3) Even worse defence than our man Price got
Better save percentages and worse GAA say that on average Halak did not enjoy even the level of mediocrity that Price did from his skaters. Here's the rub though, it shouldn't matter. Good goalies find ways to let in less goals overall, even if means they have to post gaudy 0.930+ save percentages. If Halak wants to grab a starting position here or elsewhere, he'll need to cut down goals against whatever his defenders decide to do.


2006-07 was an unexpected surprise. 2007-08 was tantalizing with numbers. It seems 2008-09 was just about the real Halak. If that's true what you get is a goalie who makes saves he shouldn't and from worse starting position than his more technically-sound rival. I'm not sure he's the best back up int he league, but another season of 0.915+ and you'd have to think he's close.


Tobalev on Halak
On the whole, Halak’s 2008-09 season looks pretty good - 18-14-1, 1 SO, 2.86 and 0.915 – but there were still some concerns. I seem to remember that when given the chance he never really took the bull by the horns. To be fair to him though he did have that one incredible stretch that was interrupted by the flu, an illness that likely cost him more starts and his team a deeper run into the playoffs. I guess what I am trying to say is that Jaro isn’t as good as Price-bashers make him out to be (he himself is only really average and has yet to perform for long stretches at a time), but he is better than some people make him out to be too (he would be a very desirable back-up options for most GMs). His season last year taught us that he is definitely good enough to play a lot of games and to squeak out wins, but also that he isn’t (at least not yet) an elite NHL goaltender; we are therefore batting 0/2 in that department.

I can’t see Jaro really going anywhere anytime soon, he should be in Montreal all year. A lot of people want him traded, but I don’t think our depth would allow for that, besides, he isn’t quite good enough that he’d get us very much in return. Therefore, he is best suited to playing in Montreal for now, behind Price. I believe that the starter job, however, could be up for grabs by as early as Christmas and I really believe that Halak has a shot at being that guy this time around. If (or maybe when?) Price falters, look for Jaro to start getting some consecutive starts. For now, however, he will play about once every three or four games. I fully expect his Save % to remain high and his GAA to go down to the 2.40-2.60 range (again, thanks to team etc.). If I had to bet I would say he features in 35-40 games and will likely play for about a .550 winning %. That should give him about 15-20 wins when you consider that he’ll be coming into some of those games as relief.


Where Halak will start 2009-10: Back-up

Where Halak will end 2009-10: On a charge again

Key stats: 16 W, 2.47 GAA, 0.915 Save%


While Halak was surely better than Price last season, he was frustrating to his supporters in not being able to prove that he will be better than Price. As Tobalev said, both have lots to learn, both are currently occupying the average territory in league goaltending ranks.

Perhaps not as controversial as I promised. I think I held back knowing that I'd done a bit of this work before, and that I wouldn't have the time or the inspiration to match it. For those who want to see that follow the link to the little read Carey Price Segment from last May.




Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier