Big T has done the heavy lifting. I'm adding some top of mind prognostication for the short attention span times we live in.
Forwards
Scoring lines: The production will be similar, the explanations for why it happened the way it did different.
Checking lines: They’ll excite, have their time in the sun. But it’s still 10 goalscorers with PK time.
Line integrity: Same coach? Yup. So none then. 20 minutes into Thursday’s match-up should be it.
Tomas Plekanec: Good on the PK, good on the PP, good at ES, good all around. Will good be good enough?
Erik Cole: Beats goalies with an elite shot. Works hard. Will still disappoint those who confuse 20 goalscorer with goal-a-game man.
Mike Cammalleri: Won’t turn on his playoff magic until the situation requires it. Leading scorer anyway.
Scott Gomez: Rebound year? Yeah, certainly if he can put in a rebound or two this time around, or shoot hard enough to create one.
Brian Gionta: Team shot leader should poach important goals as he always has.
Max Pacioretty: Will be demoted from the scoring lines at some point. How he reacts will determine his long-term success.
Andrei Kostitsyn: Will be promoted to the scoring lines at some point. How he reacts will determine his fate.
Lars Eller: Won’t end atop the scoring pile. To the delight of some, he'll lead in an obscure category.
Mathieu Darche: A promotion to the first line after a good stretch will be end looking a repeat of years past.
Ryan White: The honeymoon will likely end sometime between November and February.
Andreas Engqvist: So long, we hardly knew ye.
David Desharnais: Were all the scouts right or wrong? Montreal fans will decide within the month.
Travis Moen: Will collect his oversized cheque under the welcome shadow of Scott Gomez.
Blair Betts: Once came second in the NHL in GA on the PK.
Defenders
Andrei Markov: Day-to-day. That’s how often the barometer on his contract status will change as well.
PK Subban: Will grow into the best defensive defenceman on the team as well.
Hal Gill: Think happy thoughts. If we make the playoffs all this will be worth it.
Jaroslav Spacek: While tripping over his own feet, he’ll still be on for more goals for than against.
Josh Gorges: If we set our expectations right, he’ll deliver and maybe exceed just a little.
Alexei Yemelin: Expect a rocky ride. Have we seen a check since that scrimmage, he obviously takes new instructions very seriously.
Raphael Diaz: Unless there’s injuries, let’s not hold our breath for a PP run by Markov and Diaz.
Yannick Weber: The forward from the 2011 playoffs sees more time than the D from the 2009 playoffs.
Chris Campoli: Picard with a better shot, and a better shot at sticking around.
Goalies
Carey Price: As his teammates come to know what to expect, reliability may become his new word.
Peter Budaj: How many back-to-back games are there?
Special teams
Powerplay: The goal droughts will be directly proportional to PK's wind-up.
Penalty kill: Our only complaint will be how often they are required.
Trades
Trade deadline wants/needs: Forward with size who can score.
Trade deadline acquistions: Paul Mara.
Ranking
Teams the Habs will beat: NYI, FLA, CAR, WPG, OTT
Teams the Habs won't beat: PIT, WSH, BUF, NYR
Teams the Habs will be watching in March: TOR, BOS, PHA, NJ, TBL
Playoff qualification: Even 4th isn’t safe territory. It’ll be a fight.
Media storylines
Goaltending battle: Carey Price lost 2 games in a row...
Kostitsyn slump: 25 goalscorer totals 62 games without a goal. Again.
Pacioretty on third line: Remember that quote? Well...
Habs need size, grit: It's February, the Habs have just lost their first game to Boston this season...
The 50s Habs were better: When I started as a reporter...
Desharnais benched: How? Why?
Louis Leblanc scored: In Hamilton, ...
PK Subban's ipod: He changed a song...
Markov missed (recurring feature every Saturday)
Think that's enough. Send in your own ideas for tweet previews (they've gotta be better than most of this rubbish).
Aware that you all are very excited and need to read something more substantial to stop your restless legs from disturbing your workmates. Check out these two pieces:
1) Knowing the Enemy (From HEOTP)
A very good run down on the Leafs. Generous but with that realism that you won't find from Leafs fans' own blogs.
2) If it all goes wrong
Hey, at least they said "if". It's a fun portend on what could be written by the analysts if the points in the standings don't match the dreams of the fans.
Hope you all enjoy the game tonight. See you for the aftermath.
Showing posts with label preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label preview. Show all posts
Thursday, October 06, 2011
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Canadiens Draft Primer
The draft is in a few days and the Canadiens need to be ready. Not that Pierre Gauthier couldn’t do this on his own, but just in case he does use this blog as his last minute cramming site, we thought it prudent to put a little effort into a preview for him.
As you know, we already highlighted the lessons that the Canadiens and their crack team need to take from their own draft history, combined with that of their rivals. Just in case they don’t have time to read that, we’ll just post the most important message here:
Don’t, for goodness sake, take another defensive defender in the first round!
That out of the way, we can get down to the serious business of the draft. The way I look at it, there are about 5 categories of players to look at for the first round of this draft (No it isn’t C, RW, LW, …). The categories come fromoff the top of my head painstaking research I have done into drafting over the past decade.
The first category of possible draftees are those that we’ll call Subban substitutes. They aren’t called Subban subs because they will all be as good as Subban – what do you think I’m that good at scouting I can predict NHL readiness from watching a bit of junior? No, they are called Subban subs because the only way we’ll be drafting these players is if we trade PK Subban (or someone of his stature) to the team ahead of us in line who would otherwise take one of them.
The second group of players are aptly called NAFWOPs or Not Available for Weber or Pouliot. Trading the players fans see as expendable may get something, but not these guys. It probably wouldn’t take a Subban to move up, but for all intents and purposes, the Habs aren’t getting a sniff of these NAFWOPs either.
The third category is consensus early picks. These players are highly rated by the media who either a) just watched the Bruins win the Cup and concluded that only a team exactly like the Bruins will ever in again or b) waited until the last minute and couldn’t figure out how to integrate North American and European and Skater and Goalie lists. These are big forwards who scored a lot of goals in the CHL (the minimum cut off for a lot is slipping these days, some guys here scored 20ish). These are players that should be available when the Canadiens pick because a) the media don’t have NHL jobs and b) Brian Burke can’t make all the picks.
The fourth category is the McGuire stunners. These players don’t get mentioned for some reason or another. See category three for media excuses, add drinking while compiling the list. In my opinion, the more stunned Pierre McGuire is by the pick, the better the pick probably is. The Blubbering Blusterer is no clairvoyant.
The fifth and final category is the red flags. This category is entirely determined by me and based on that thorough research I mentioned. The players are unpickable by the Canadiens for reasons of position, over-rating or the fact they have already resorted to the strategy that all slow and non-innovative players take when in a jam – they abandon their reason for being a hockey player by becoming a defensive machine before they even get a sniff of pro hockey.
Subban subs
Not worth spending too much time on these guys really. Primarily because the caliber of prospect that must be traded to get this player is more than likely to be a better prospect on odds than the draft pick himself.
The list here consists of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, Gabriel Landerskog, Jonathan Huberdeau, Sean Couturier, Dougie Hamilton, Ryan Strome and Ryan Murphy.
If any of these players were to be available without trade, or through a cheaper trade, I’d be all for adding them to the fold. Landerskog and Strome fit the bill of what the Canadiens (or any team) could use, Couturier and Huberdeau would be organizational gems, Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson are the kind of guys you make room for, and Hamilton and Murphy are a cut above their peers from the back line (with Murphy being the one I'd go for).
NAFWOPs
Mika Zibanejad, Sven Bartschi, Joel Armia, Mark McNeill all have a lot in common. All forwards. All fit the profile of a scoring forward who may succeed at NHL level. All unlikely to be available by the time the Canadiens pick.
These are the kinds of 9-15 draft picks that make one ask why the Canadiens made the playoffs if they were only going to be stifled in the first round. They make one ask that because players of their scoring ability and general quality are gone at pick 17 if all goes according to plan.
The good news is the NHL is rife with general managers who think their secret revelation is a new and unidentified way to win it all (Thomas Hickey, #4 overall, LA). Usually these GMs win the draft picks above #14 year on year.
So let’s play the game. Let’s say one of these four players slips through the table because someone opts for that 7’ guy and someone wants to impress Pierre McGuire.
If I had my choice for the player to fall to 17, I think I’d go with Joel Armia. Sure, his work ethic is being questioned by the media who watched him play one game at a tournament with lesser players than he, but he put up 18 goals in the Finnish League at age 17 and that’s got to count for something. And, remember how the Habs lost 3 OT games to Boston with Horton and Ryder spoiling the fun. How about this quote then:
I also think Nathan Beaulieu will be gone by all accounts by pick 17. If he fell to that point, the Canadiens would take him, but it might serve them better to trade down if that happens, even if it brings on the annual wrath of RDS.
Consensus mid-teens
Mark Scheifele
Look, I understand why mock drafts take this guy. There are a lot of lists and he’s high on most. To that I would ask why? In my opinion, he gets points for points, points for being big, points for being a center, and dare I say, points for being from the OHL.
Looking deeper though, despite claims he was on a talentless team, Scheifele still racked up way more assists than goals. 75 points is no OHL record and with the ice time he got, I consider the 22 goals a red flag. I also read that 11 of his goals came down a stretch at the end. While to some that would mean he picked it up in clutch games, one must remember there were no clutch games for Barries, so he actually picked it up in meaningless games. Not one for me.
The Hockey Writers call him the safe pick. Safe picks are for rounds 3/4 in my honest opinion...
Matt Puempel
Small in stature, one gets the idea Puempel got his points for actual play rather than the potential of a big guy.34 goals wasn’t something that turned heads in past seasons, but this season it seems high for the CHL. This worries me somewhat as 34 is closer to 20 than it is to 50. Still, from all accounts he makes his living from scoring goals, but still makes time to get assists. Like Scheifele, he played on a pretty awful team, however, and with a hip injury that raises other questions doesn’t get my nod.
Brandon Saad
Not sold on Brandon either for some reason. He's already garnering comments about his two-way game, which might not be a flag with 40 goals under his belt. With 27, it starts to sound like a bit of an excuse. That said, I could be way wrong about this guy.
Duncan Siemens, Jonas Brodin, Oscar Klefbom, Joe Morrow
I’m sure these guys are all fine fellows and even better defenders. But unless someone in the organization thinks they’d be passing up the next Lidstrom or Niedermayer, I’d advise a pass on this group of Dmen. The Habs need to keep Subban around and hopefully can revitalize Markov. These have to be their bets. Together with a commitment to Weber who has shown good promise, I don’t see the need to abandon hope on finding a scorng forward to take and ever so slightly safer bet based on consensus.
McGuire stunners
Stefan Noesen
This guy isn't on mmost lists, simply because they only go to pick #30. But in a year where so many 25-30 goal guys are in the running, it's a bit of a puzzle how a relatively big OHLer with 34 goals and a 69 point jump for the season wouldn't pip some of the former favourites. Let's just accept he rose from nowhere and some in the rankings racket like to save face more than they like to be objective.
34 goals in 68 games. 77 points. Up from 3 goals last season. Noesen comes from Dallas, so he might not be under their radar. But if he slips to the Canadiens #17, he should get consideration. At the very least the team should insinuate they are going to take him to the Big D and see if Nieuwendyk coughs anything up.
Daniel Catenacci
From all reports, Catenacci translates to speed. The most generous comparisons liken him to Mike Cammalleri because of his speed, his attitude and his stature. After a second playoffs watching Camms, I'd sign another one of him up if I could.
Alexander Khokhlachev
Nikita Kucherov
If you don't ever finish low enough to get a high pick, you have to take a chance to get a superstar. Kucherov represents a home run swing. The guy absolutely dominated the MHL, he smashed scoring recoreds at the recent U18 champs, he has potential to be something quite special offensively. I don't think the Canadiens have much to lose by swinging big this year, because at #17 they are already looking at guys that could only muster 20-some goals in junior anyway. If Kucherov is on the radar for this pick, it might be wise, however, to turn the pick into two and take him lower when he'll likely still be available due to his recent KHL: signing.
Tyler Biggs
I'm a bit loathe to put another American college bound kid. We've seen our fair share of these already. But Biggs is legit. He is Big, as his name suggests, and he has a knack for scoring Big goals, if not enormous numbers of them. He has to be on the list for completeness, but he wouldn't be my first choice from these.
Red flags
Boone Jenner
For me his improvement from one year to the next wasn't very impressive and it really does raise the question about how one thinks he'll suddenly become NHL 20-goal material.
Zack Phillips, Tomas Jurco
Good teams put up good amounts of goals and are populated by many high point-getters. But it's a scouts job to pick out the straw that stirs the drink. In Saint John, it seems like it was probably Huberdeau. Not to mention Simon Despres and Stanislav Galiev. I'd be wary of totals from these two forwards that may well deflate when they lose their catalysts.
Jamieson Oleksiak
He's 6'7". Let's admit not all tall guys turn out to be Chara. Some turn out to be Andy Sutton -- if you're even that lucky.
Ty Rattie
Seems like 4th fiddle on his team with some pretty crazy top end talent. Buyer beware.
Brett Ritchie
I know you can't teach size. But can one really teach a 20-goal OHL player to do it at the NHL. I know there are cases where it's been done. But have the Habs really learned nothing from Turner Stevenson, Jason Ward.
As you know, we already highlighted the lessons that the Canadiens and their crack team need to take from their own draft history, combined with that of their rivals. Just in case they don’t have time to read that, we’ll just post the most important message here:
Don’t, for goodness sake, take another defensive defender in the first round!
That out of the way, we can get down to the serious business of the draft. The way I look at it, there are about 5 categories of players to look at for the first round of this draft (No it isn’t C, RW, LW, …). The categories come from
The first category of possible draftees are those that we’ll call Subban substitutes. They aren’t called Subban subs because they will all be as good as Subban – what do you think I’m that good at scouting I can predict NHL readiness from watching a bit of junior? No, they are called Subban subs because the only way we’ll be drafting these players is if we trade PK Subban (or someone of his stature) to the team ahead of us in line who would otherwise take one of them.
The second group of players are aptly called NAFWOPs or Not Available for Weber or Pouliot. Trading the players fans see as expendable may get something, but not these guys. It probably wouldn’t take a Subban to move up, but for all intents and purposes, the Habs aren’t getting a sniff of these NAFWOPs either.
The third category is consensus early picks. These players are highly rated by the media who either a) just watched the Bruins win the Cup and concluded that only a team exactly like the Bruins will ever in again or b) waited until the last minute and couldn’t figure out how to integrate North American and European and Skater and Goalie lists. These are big forwards who scored a lot of goals in the CHL (the minimum cut off for a lot is slipping these days, some guys here scored 20ish). These are players that should be available when the Canadiens pick because a) the media don’t have NHL jobs and b) Brian Burke can’t make all the picks.
The fourth category is the McGuire stunners. These players don’t get mentioned for some reason or another. See category three for media excuses, add drinking while compiling the list. In my opinion, the more stunned Pierre McGuire is by the pick, the better the pick probably is. The Blubbering Blusterer is no clairvoyant.
The fifth and final category is the red flags. This category is entirely determined by me and based on that thorough research I mentioned. The players are unpickable by the Canadiens for reasons of position, over-rating or the fact they have already resorted to the strategy that all slow and non-innovative players take when in a jam – they abandon their reason for being a hockey player by becoming a defensive machine before they even get a sniff of pro hockey.
Subban subs
Not worth spending too much time on these guys really. Primarily because the caliber of prospect that must be traded to get this player is more than likely to be a better prospect on odds than the draft pick himself.
The list here consists of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, Gabriel Landerskog, Jonathan Huberdeau, Sean Couturier, Dougie Hamilton, Ryan Strome and Ryan Murphy.
If any of these players were to be available without trade, or through a cheaper trade, I’d be all for adding them to the fold. Landerskog and Strome fit the bill of what the Canadiens (or any team) could use, Couturier and Huberdeau would be organizational gems, Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson are the kind of guys you make room for, and Hamilton and Murphy are a cut above their peers from the back line (with Murphy being the one I'd go for).
NAFWOPs
Mika Zibanejad, Sven Bartschi, Joel Armia, Mark McNeill all have a lot in common. All forwards. All fit the profile of a scoring forward who may succeed at NHL level. All unlikely to be available by the time the Canadiens pick.
These are the kinds of 9-15 draft picks that make one ask why the Canadiens made the playoffs if they were only going to be stifled in the first round. They make one ask that because players of their scoring ability and general quality are gone at pick 17 if all goes according to plan.
The good news is the NHL is rife with general managers who think their secret revelation is a new and unidentified way to win it all (Thomas Hickey, #4 overall, LA). Usually these GMs win the draft picks above #14 year on year.
So let’s play the game. Let’s say one of these four players slips through the table because someone opts for that 7’ guy and someone wants to impress Pierre McGuire.
If I had my choice for the player to fall to 17, I think I’d go with Joel Armia. Sure, his work ethic is being questioned by the media who watched him play one game at a tournament with lesser players than he, but he put up 18 goals in the Finnish League at age 17 and that’s got to count for something. And, remember how the Habs lost 3 OT games to Boston with Horton and Ryder spoiling the fun. How about this quote then:
"You might have to look for him during some shifts, but then, suddenly, he scores the winner."Goalscorers sometimes need to disappear to do their thing. I certainly wouldn't mind empty shifts if goals flowed freely.
I also think Nathan Beaulieu will be gone by all accounts by pick 17. If he fell to that point, the Canadiens would take him, but it might serve them better to trade down if that happens, even if it brings on the annual wrath of RDS.
Consensus mid-teens
Mark Scheifele
Look, I understand why mock drafts take this guy. There are a lot of lists and he’s high on most. To that I would ask why? In my opinion, he gets points for points, points for being big, points for being a center, and dare I say, points for being from the OHL.
Looking deeper though, despite claims he was on a talentless team, Scheifele still racked up way more assists than goals. 75 points is no OHL record and with the ice time he got, I consider the 22 goals a red flag. I also read that 11 of his goals came down a stretch at the end. While to some that would mean he picked it up in clutch games, one must remember there were no clutch games for Barries, so he actually picked it up in meaningless games. Not one for me.
The Hockey Writers call him the safe pick. Safe picks are for rounds 3/4 in my honest opinion...
Matt Puempel
Small in stature, one gets the idea Puempel got his points for actual play rather than the potential of a big guy.34 goals wasn’t something that turned heads in past seasons, but this season it seems high for the CHL. This worries me somewhat as 34 is closer to 20 than it is to 50. Still, from all accounts he makes his living from scoring goals, but still makes time to get assists. Like Scheifele, he played on a pretty awful team, however, and with a hip injury that raises other questions doesn’t get my nod.
Brandon Saad
Not sold on Brandon either for some reason. He's already garnering comments about his two-way game, which might not be a flag with 40 goals under his belt. With 27, it starts to sound like a bit of an excuse. That said, I could be way wrong about this guy.
Duncan Siemens, Jonas Brodin, Oscar Klefbom, Joe Morrow
I’m sure these guys are all fine fellows and even better defenders. But unless someone in the organization thinks they’d be passing up the next Lidstrom or Niedermayer, I’d advise a pass on this group of Dmen. The Habs need to keep Subban around and hopefully can revitalize Markov. These have to be their bets. Together with a commitment to Weber who has shown good promise, I don’t see the need to abandon hope on finding a scorng forward to take and ever so slightly safer bet based on consensus.
McGuire stunners
Stefan Noesen
This guy isn't on mmost lists, simply because they only go to pick #30. But in a year where so many 25-30 goal guys are in the running, it's a bit of a puzzle how a relatively big OHLer with 34 goals and a 69 point jump for the season wouldn't pip some of the former favourites. Let's just accept he rose from nowhere and some in the rankings racket like to save face more than they like to be objective.
34 goals in 68 games. 77 points. Up from 3 goals last season. Noesen comes from Dallas, so he might not be under their radar. But if he slips to the Canadiens #17, he should get consideration. At the very least the team should insinuate they are going to take him to the Big D and see if Nieuwendyk coughs anything up.
Daniel Catenacci
From all reports, Catenacci translates to speed. The most generous comparisons liken him to Mike Cammalleri because of his speed, his attitude and his stature. After a second playoffs watching Camms, I'd sign another one of him up if I could.
Alexander Khokhlachev
"The first thing that jumps out about Khokhlachev’s game is his heart."A comment like that and 34 goals in his first OHL season, I'm certain this is a classic Russian shy-away. The Canadiens have a chance to be a bit of Russian hub with Markov, Emelin, Kostitsyn and Avtsin. Why not take advantage of the rest of the NHL's reluctance. This guy played in North America already. What more could he have done to prove he wanted to be in the NHL?
Nikita Kucherov
If you don't ever finish low enough to get a high pick, you have to take a chance to get a superstar. Kucherov represents a home run swing. The guy absolutely dominated the MHL, he smashed scoring recoreds at the recent U18 champs, he has potential to be something quite special offensively. I don't think the Canadiens have much to lose by swinging big this year, because at #17 they are already looking at guys that could only muster 20-some goals in junior anyway. If Kucherov is on the radar for this pick, it might be wise, however, to turn the pick into two and take him lower when he'll likely still be available due to his recent KHL: signing.
Tyler Biggs
I'm a bit loathe to put another American college bound kid. We've seen our fair share of these already. But Biggs is legit. He is Big, as his name suggests, and he has a knack for scoring Big goals, if not enormous numbers of them. He has to be on the list for completeness, but he wouldn't be my first choice from these.
Red flags
Boone Jenner
For me his improvement from one year to the next wasn't very impressive and it really does raise the question about how one thinks he'll suddenly become NHL 20-goal material.
Zack Phillips, Tomas Jurco
Good teams put up good amounts of goals and are populated by many high point-getters. But it's a scouts job to pick out the straw that stirs the drink. In Saint John, it seems like it was probably Huberdeau. Not to mention Simon Despres and Stanislav Galiev. I'd be wary of totals from these two forwards that may well deflate when they lose their catalysts.
Jamieson Oleksiak
He's 6'7". Let's admit not all tall guys turn out to be Chara. Some turn out to be Andy Sutton -- if you're even that lucky.
Ty Rattie
Seems like 4th fiddle on his team with some pretty crazy top end talent. Buyer beware.
Brett Ritchie
I know you can't teach size. But can one really teach a 20-goal OHL player to do it at the NHL. I know there are cases where it's been done. But have the Habs really learned nothing from Turner Stevenson, Jason Ward.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Game Today on Hockey Night In Canada
The play that rocked the Habs happened Tuesday. Since that time many have had their chance to respond.
The Canadiens and Bruins responded in words and action that very night in the third period and following. The 24-hour sports reels let their opinions known. Canadiens management responded. The NHL did. Air Canada and yesterday Via.
But hockey's biggest vehicle and most important collection of voices has yet to have their full time on the soapbox.
Hockey Night in Canada goes to air just before the Canadiens face the Penguins today. They will show that game as well.
Usually I would watch this on RDS. But as someone interested in where the debate on the Max Pacioretty hit and its effect on future NHL violence will go, I think I'd better listen up to what the voices of the nation will tell the nation to think.
The blunt end of the argument is bound to be coming from Ex-Bruins collaborators Don Cherry and Mike Milbury. Cherry will be of particular interest. The man of a million crusades has made unnecessary hitting one of his longest crusades. Hitting that happens on icing plays, that is. It will be interesting to see if he is a man of principle or a man incapable of sequestering his allegiance and distaste for the parties involved. He has surprised before, so you never know.
More subtle, and probably more influential in the long run, are the views of the long-time hockey journalists. Those that can wrap their thoughts in a bit of eloquence. They will interview their handpicked opinions and they'll interview each other. Between all this we'll get a picture of the bloc of opinion that could actually move the NHL.
Ron MacLean will be central of course, as he is the ringmaster with hands in every spinning pie. He has actually given us a short preview of what he thinks. It's an interesting preview, with a few puzzling turns, such as:
I think, like me, many who care about this issue seriously are still not quite ready to dive headlong into worrying about backpasses gone wrong or blatantly missed scoring opportunities. The memory of events and the significance of the decisions ahead mean that thoughts are still whirling about on this.
I'll be watching the game with interest as always. But as much interest will be directed to the debate and discussion that will be happening in all available moments between plays.
Have a good Saturday. All the best to Pacioretty and family. Go Habs Go.
The Canadiens and Bruins responded in words and action that very night in the third period and following. The 24-hour sports reels let their opinions known. Canadiens management responded. The NHL did. Air Canada and yesterday Via.
But hockey's biggest vehicle and most important collection of voices has yet to have their full time on the soapbox.
Hockey Night in Canada goes to air just before the Canadiens face the Penguins today. They will show that game as well.
Usually I would watch this on RDS. But as someone interested in where the debate on the Max Pacioretty hit and its effect on future NHL violence will go, I think I'd better listen up to what the voices of the nation will tell the nation to think.
The blunt end of the argument is bound to be coming from Ex-Bruins collaborators Don Cherry and Mike Milbury. Cherry will be of particular interest. The man of a million crusades has made unnecessary hitting one of his longest crusades. Hitting that happens on icing plays, that is. It will be interesting to see if he is a man of principle or a man incapable of sequestering his allegiance and distaste for the parties involved. He has surprised before, so you never know.
More subtle, and probably more influential in the long run, are the views of the long-time hockey journalists. Those that can wrap their thoughts in a bit of eloquence. They will interview their handpicked opinions and they'll interview each other. Between all this we'll get a picture of the bloc of opinion that could actually move the NHL.
Ron MacLean will be central of course, as he is the ringmaster with hands in every spinning pie. He has actually given us a short preview of what he thinks. It's an interesting preview, with a few puzzling turns, such as:
"When I hear "Pacioretty could have ended up in a wheelchair," it makes me think we go too far teaching such fear. A wheelchair life is different, but it could be better than the one before and until we grow into a less superficial take on the gift of life we'll run aimlessly trying to interpret the forces of life, from floods and fires to crimes and accidents as though they give technical and instructive shape to the abstract."I'm sure his thoughts will become much clearer after we've heard him debate Stephen Brunt and sit beside Don Cherry.
I think, like me, many who care about this issue seriously are still not quite ready to dive headlong into worrying about backpasses gone wrong or blatantly missed scoring opportunities. The memory of events and the significance of the decisions ahead mean that thoughts are still whirling about on this.
I'll be watching the game with interest as always. But as much interest will be directed to the debate and discussion that will be happening in all available moments between plays.
Have a good Saturday. All the best to Pacioretty and family. Go Habs Go.
Friday, December 10, 2010
A Winged View Of Things
Big game tonight with the Red Wings. A throwback really, with the two teams both riding quite high. Must have felt tlike this in bygone eras.
As a prelude to the game, I was asked by Red Wings blogger, and extremely dedicated Norwegian hockey fan, to answer a few questions for his blog "Fight Night at the Joe". In turn, I asked him a few of my own. I'll post his answers below, and will link to the my answers on his site when they're up.
Fight Night at the Joe asks LIW:
1. The Habs have looked great so far this year, what reasons are behind the improvement from last year?
2. Will they be able to hold on for the entire season?
3. Which player do you guys plan to boo next?
4. Going into this game, what do you fear about the Wings? What should the Wings be looking out for?
5. Predict the final result of the game and tell us why!
(See answers on the Fight Night at the Joe pre-game post)
LIW asks Fight Night at the Joe:
1. Can you explain briefly how the Red Wings do it? Perennial contention, what's the secret?
The secret is pretty simple I think. First of all, the Wings have always drafted very well. They were very early on to focusing on Europe and got a lot of draft steals from Sweden and Russia. Generally good scouting has also helped.
Secondly, the Wings tend to never rush anyone. Except for in a few cases, prospects have to play at least a year, often more in the AHL before they get up to the NHL and they are well developed when they finally come up.
The Wings have also done very well at trading. There have been a few busts (Wendel Clark and Robert Lang come to mind), but most of the trades the last 20 years have been good and they have never been a team that will make a desperation trade.
Money is another factor, but that has been diminished after the lockout.
But one of the main factors in my eyes is that the Wings seem to be a team where players want to stay. Everyone, from the Illitches, through Kenny Holland and down to the role players, equipment guys and everyone else are part of the Wings family. They treat their players well, keep a consistent environment and everyone coming up through the system plays Red Wings hockey. Draft picks stay there their whole career and journeymen like Brad Stuart and Dan Cleary and outcasts like Todd Bertuzzi find a new home where they can get a role that fits them, adapt to the system and finally settle down. The players seem to be happy in Detroit, there is a winning culture and the team is usually the same from year to year, which is a huge factor in consistently winning. And they really take care of and value every player. They know how important role players are. Just look at Draper and Maltby.
Last of all, Nicklas Lidström. It is impossible to realize how good he is without watching the Wings every game and he has been a huge part in the last 20 years of success.
2. The Canadiens have lost Andrei Markov for the second straight season, essentially. Is there a single player on the Red Wings whose absence might lead to a significant dip in the standings?
The first player that comes to mind is Nick Lidström. As I said, even with his success I think he is underrated. He is so subtle and does all the little things right. You really need to watch them often to appreciate just how good he is at that. Teammates and fans call him the Perfect Human and it is fitting. When he makes a mistake it is shocking to us, cause usually he just doesn't make them. He is the team's leader, still one of the best, maybe the best defenseman in the NHL. He does a huge job shutting down the opponent's star players every night and is important offensively too. Zetterberg and Datsyuk are other guys that would be huge losses for the Wings.
3. Andrei Markov goes to free agency on a shaky knee. Would you want your GM to sign him?
That depends on the price. I wouldn't pay high money for an injury prone star defenseman, but if he came for a discount because he wanted to prove himself it would be interesting. Right now I don't think the Wings need a guy with his style, but if Nick retires he could be an interesting part of a solution to fill the hole that would leave.
4. Montreal has had amazing first periods thus far, and managed to impose their style on the opposition. From what I know, this is Detroit's M.O. Which team do you think will get to play their style tonight?
The Wings are terribly schizophrenic when it comes to starting games. Some days they are right no time and score one or two goals early, but other nights it seems like they need a period to get into the game. And it is very hard to predict which version will show up. Right now the team has lost three straight games (or, well, one was in OT) and in the two first they came out strong, but collapsed (end of road trip and first game back home, so I get it) and then on Wednesday they were terrible for the first 25 minutes against Nashville. I know Babcock goes insane over that, so hopefully he has whipped the team into shape so they come out strong, but I am very worried that the Habs can come out flying and roll over the Wings for some time before the Wings really wake up.
5. Predict the final result of the game and tell us why!
That is a difficult question. The Wings have not been good lately and the Habs are scary to me right now. And they have such a speedy group of forwards, so I am scared that they might be all over the Wings, rush them and make the Wings commit way too many turnovers. The Wings need to get into their groove a little and get their passing game going to be good and if the Habs can deny them that early, then that and Carey Price having a good game, can lead to this getting ugly.
However, I think the team and everyone around it are very disappointed in the last few games and I have to hope that they show up ready to go and out for blood. I think it will be a tight game, but I think that the Wings will win 4-2 with the fourth goal being an empty netter. I also think special teams might become the deciding factor, but it is hard to predict which way that will swing.
6. Finally. You live in Norway. How do you manage to follow the NHL. And why the Red Wings?
Following it is pretty easy these days. Back in the day, when it was just on TV, it was a pain and you couldn't see every game, but now I have something called ESPNPlayer, which is basically the European equivalent of GameCenter Live. Lets me watch every game live or on demand (I have the same for the MLB and NFL (shoot me, I'm a Lions fan)). And seeing as I'm a student and my part time job has evening shifts, I can have a semi-American sleep cycle and stay up to watch the games.
Why the Wings? The answer has two parts really. When I was three or four I got a Canucks jersey cause my dad had been in Vancouver. So I became a Canucks fan. However, when I got NHL on TV in 94-95 I realized that the Canucks bored me (aside from Bure) and my 6-7 year old fashion sense realized that the Canucks jerseys were ugly as sin. However I loved the Wings jerseys, I loved that they had a Russian line and some Swedes and I really loved Stevie Y, so I began rooting for them. Two straight years of playoff disappointment (horrifying finals loss and then a brutal conference final loss) only made me love them more. And then, in the summer of 96, I attended a hockey camp in Asker, right outside of Oslo and Scottie Bowman and Barry Smith came in and coached us for one afternoon and in the morning the next day. It was really cool and they were really nice to us and I remember that Scotty gave us stickers saying "Proud to be a Wings fan". That settled it and I've been a hardcore ever since. Used to fight my mom and dad to be allowed to see important games on school nights and everything.
Thanks to Fight Night at the Joe
Pretty cool to hear from a dedicated fan of a very special franchise. The answers to the questions above remind one about things that have been said about the Canadiens in the past, and things we hope might be said about them in the future.
Needless to say, we're a bit jealous about the Scotty Bowman meeting, all-time best coach and all. But then I've had Nicklas Lidstrom hold the door for me on my wedding day, so we'll call it even...
As a prelude to the game, I was asked by Red Wings blogger, and extremely dedicated Norwegian hockey fan, to answer a few questions for his blog "Fight Night at the Joe". In turn, I asked him a few of my own. I'll post his answers below, and will link to the my answers on his site when they're up.
Fight Night at the Joe asks LIW:
1. The Habs have looked great so far this year, what reasons are behind the improvement from last year?
2. Will they be able to hold on for the entire season?
3. Which player do you guys plan to boo next?
4. Going into this game, what do you fear about the Wings? What should the Wings be looking out for?
5. Predict the final result of the game and tell us why!
(See answers on the Fight Night at the Joe pre-game post)
LIW asks Fight Night at the Joe:
1. Can you explain briefly how the Red Wings do it? Perennial contention, what's the secret?
The secret is pretty simple I think. First of all, the Wings have always drafted very well. They were very early on to focusing on Europe and got a lot of draft steals from Sweden and Russia. Generally good scouting has also helped.
Secondly, the Wings tend to never rush anyone. Except for in a few cases, prospects have to play at least a year, often more in the AHL before they get up to the NHL and they are well developed when they finally come up.
The Wings have also done very well at trading. There have been a few busts (Wendel Clark and Robert Lang come to mind), but most of the trades the last 20 years have been good and they have never been a team that will make a desperation trade.
Money is another factor, but that has been diminished after the lockout.
But one of the main factors in my eyes is that the Wings seem to be a team where players want to stay. Everyone, from the Illitches, through Kenny Holland and down to the role players, equipment guys and everyone else are part of the Wings family. They treat their players well, keep a consistent environment and everyone coming up through the system plays Red Wings hockey. Draft picks stay there their whole career and journeymen like Brad Stuart and Dan Cleary and outcasts like Todd Bertuzzi find a new home where they can get a role that fits them, adapt to the system and finally settle down. The players seem to be happy in Detroit, there is a winning culture and the team is usually the same from year to year, which is a huge factor in consistently winning. And they really take care of and value every player. They know how important role players are. Just look at Draper and Maltby.
Last of all, Nicklas Lidström. It is impossible to realize how good he is without watching the Wings every game and he has been a huge part in the last 20 years of success.
2. The Canadiens have lost Andrei Markov for the second straight season, essentially. Is there a single player on the Red Wings whose absence might lead to a significant dip in the standings?
The first player that comes to mind is Nick Lidström. As I said, even with his success I think he is underrated. He is so subtle and does all the little things right. You really need to watch them often to appreciate just how good he is at that. Teammates and fans call him the Perfect Human and it is fitting. When he makes a mistake it is shocking to us, cause usually he just doesn't make them. He is the team's leader, still one of the best, maybe the best defenseman in the NHL. He does a huge job shutting down the opponent's star players every night and is important offensively too. Zetterberg and Datsyuk are other guys that would be huge losses for the Wings.
3. Andrei Markov goes to free agency on a shaky knee. Would you want your GM to sign him?
That depends on the price. I wouldn't pay high money for an injury prone star defenseman, but if he came for a discount because he wanted to prove himself it would be interesting. Right now I don't think the Wings need a guy with his style, but if Nick retires he could be an interesting part of a solution to fill the hole that would leave.
4. Montreal has had amazing first periods thus far, and managed to impose their style on the opposition. From what I know, this is Detroit's M.O. Which team do you think will get to play their style tonight?
The Wings are terribly schizophrenic when it comes to starting games. Some days they are right no time and score one or two goals early, but other nights it seems like they need a period to get into the game. And it is very hard to predict which version will show up. Right now the team has lost three straight games (or, well, one was in OT) and in the two first they came out strong, but collapsed (end of road trip and first game back home, so I get it) and then on Wednesday they were terrible for the first 25 minutes against Nashville. I know Babcock goes insane over that, so hopefully he has whipped the team into shape so they come out strong, but I am very worried that the Habs can come out flying and roll over the Wings for some time before the Wings really wake up.
5. Predict the final result of the game and tell us why!
That is a difficult question. The Wings have not been good lately and the Habs are scary to me right now. And they have such a speedy group of forwards, so I am scared that they might be all over the Wings, rush them and make the Wings commit way too many turnovers. The Wings need to get into their groove a little and get their passing game going to be good and if the Habs can deny them that early, then that and Carey Price having a good game, can lead to this getting ugly.
However, I think the team and everyone around it are very disappointed in the last few games and I have to hope that they show up ready to go and out for blood. I think it will be a tight game, but I think that the Wings will win 4-2 with the fourth goal being an empty netter. I also think special teams might become the deciding factor, but it is hard to predict which way that will swing.
6. Finally. You live in Norway. How do you manage to follow the NHL. And why the Red Wings?
Following it is pretty easy these days. Back in the day, when it was just on TV, it was a pain and you couldn't see every game, but now I have something called ESPNPlayer, which is basically the European equivalent of GameCenter Live. Lets me watch every game live or on demand (I have the same for the MLB and NFL (shoot me, I'm a Lions fan)). And seeing as I'm a student and my part time job has evening shifts, I can have a semi-American sleep cycle and stay up to watch the games.
Why the Wings? The answer has two parts really. When I was three or four I got a Canucks jersey cause my dad had been in Vancouver. So I became a Canucks fan. However, when I got NHL on TV in 94-95 I realized that the Canucks bored me (aside from Bure) and my 6-7 year old fashion sense realized that the Canucks jerseys were ugly as sin. However I loved the Wings jerseys, I loved that they had a Russian line and some Swedes and I really loved Stevie Y, so I began rooting for them. Two straight years of playoff disappointment (horrifying finals loss and then a brutal conference final loss) only made me love them more. And then, in the summer of 96, I attended a hockey camp in Asker, right outside of Oslo and Scottie Bowman and Barry Smith came in and coached us for one afternoon and in the morning the next day. It was really cool and they were really nice to us and I remember that Scotty gave us stickers saying "Proud to be a Wings fan". That settled it and I've been a hardcore ever since. Used to fight my mom and dad to be allowed to see important games on school nights and everything.
Thanks to Fight Night at the Joe
Pretty cool to hear from a dedicated fan of a very special franchise. The answers to the questions above remind one about things that have been said about the Canadiens in the past, and things we hope might be said about them in the future.
Needless to say, we're a bit jealous about the Scotty Bowman meeting, all-time best coach and all. But then I've had Nicklas Lidstrom hold the door for me on my wedding day, so we'll call it even...
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Islanders Preview
In the wacky world where Leafs and Canadiens lead Penguins and Capitals, where Devils and Sabres forget their gains of a season past, it's perhaps not surprising that the AHL entry in the East, the NY Islanders, are off to a good start.
Here's what LIW has to say about them:
Key match-ups
Canadiens PK and Islanders PP
The Habs have squirmed out of trouble and gained points this year through a combination of timely scoring and timely defence. Nothing has been more timely than their PK which ranks second in the league at over 90%. The Islanders have the 5th ranked PP at 26.2% and have used it to get their wins. James Wisniewski may or may not get 90+ points this year, but he currently has 8 in 6 games thanks to PP action.
Subban and Tavares
A cocky rookie and a cocky sophomore. Apparently they're even best friends and having dinner together pre-game. With Markov out, Subban has been a key and will continue to be an important piece of the Habs tonight. With all the Islanders injuries, Tavares is even more prominent than PK on his team and looks to continue to impress tonight. Look for PK to offer his usual feistiness and make a point of putting friendship aside as he attempts to steal the spotlight.
Gionta and Mottau
All the hype about finding a winger for Gionta and Gomez could be ended with a good performance (by that I mean stats, stats, stats) from none other than Gionta and Gomez. There aren't many worse defensive brigades than on Long Island. Gionta knows this, he knows how to get the media off his back and he knows Mike Mottau as the -11 defender on the mostly positive +/- 2007-08 Devils. Step around him, push him aside and put this media story to bed Captain.
Media and Bloggers
The Islanders love their bloggers. The Montreal media is uptight and uppity at the sight of outsiders. Though they probably won't meet tonight in Montreal, the access at the Nassau Colisseum later in the week means they might. Should be fun.
Momentum
Andrei Kostitsyn believes in hard work. Carey Price no longer craves exorcism. The momentum on the Habs is squarely moving in the right direction. They look like a team that can finally get ready for games against beatable opponents and the first period should be theirs.
Islanders the Habs covet
John Tavares
He's the kind of player that can make the difference between running with the pack every year and cruising into the playoffs, a special offensive talent. The Canadiens, and everyone else, crave these sorts of players.
Dwayne Roloson
A back-up you're not afraid to use.
Habs the Islanders covet
Scott Gomez
An American who can help them attain the salary floor. What's not to like?
Josh Gorges
A cheap defender who can actually defend. They're not as common as one thinks. If they were Radek Martinek wouldn't have had a career.
Impact of this result
This is a game for points and not much else. I can't see a lasting rivalry coming between these two teams, as the Islanders will find a way to make their way back to disarray by the offseason.
Here's what LIW has to say about them:
Key match-ups
Canadiens PK and Islanders PP
The Habs have squirmed out of trouble and gained points this year through a combination of timely scoring and timely defence. Nothing has been more timely than their PK which ranks second in the league at over 90%. The Islanders have the 5th ranked PP at 26.2% and have used it to get their wins. James Wisniewski may or may not get 90+ points this year, but he currently has 8 in 6 games thanks to PP action.
Subban and Tavares
A cocky rookie and a cocky sophomore. Apparently they're even best friends and having dinner together pre-game. With Markov out, Subban has been a key and will continue to be an important piece of the Habs tonight. With all the Islanders injuries, Tavares is even more prominent than PK on his team and looks to continue to impress tonight. Look for PK to offer his usual feistiness and make a point of putting friendship aside as he attempts to steal the spotlight.
Gionta and Mottau
All the hype about finding a winger for Gionta and Gomez could be ended with a good performance (by that I mean stats, stats, stats) from none other than Gionta and Gomez. There aren't many worse defensive brigades than on Long Island. Gionta knows this, he knows how to get the media off his back and he knows Mike Mottau as the -11 defender on the mostly positive +/- 2007-08 Devils. Step around him, push him aside and put this media story to bed Captain.
Media and Bloggers
The Islanders love their bloggers. The Montreal media is uptight and uppity at the sight of outsiders. Though they probably won't meet tonight in Montreal, the access at the Nassau Colisseum later in the week means they might. Should be fun.
Momentum
Andrei Kostitsyn believes in hard work. Carey Price no longer craves exorcism. The momentum on the Habs is squarely moving in the right direction. They look like a team that can finally get ready for games against beatable opponents and the first period should be theirs.
Islanders the Habs covet
John Tavares
He's the kind of player that can make the difference between running with the pack every year and cruising into the playoffs, a special offensive talent. The Canadiens, and everyone else, crave these sorts of players.
Dwayne Roloson
A back-up you're not afraid to use.
Habs the Islanders covet
Scott Gomez
An American who can help them attain the salary floor. What's not to like?
Josh Gorges
A cheap defender who can actually defend. They're not as common as one thinks. If they were Radek Martinek wouldn't have had a career.
Impact of this result
This is a game for points and not much else. I can't see a lasting rivalry coming between these two teams, as the Islanders will find a way to make their way back to disarray by the offseason.
Monday, October 25, 2010
A Visit From The Real Coyotes?
Game Preview
Last season, Phoenix were the shock entry in the NHL circuit. A franchise with no money and few incentives to go for took a middling group of veterans to a 100+ point finish. Last season, Montreal played Phoenix once and won. Price played and won. The Coyotes never visited Montreal, so in a way it’s like their season might never have happened at all.
As they roll into town tonight, the Coyotes are in tough. Their offseason improvements included the additions of 38-year-old Ray Whiney and 21-year-old Kyle Turris. Otherwise, they return the same team that rode fortune to a successful close last year. My personal feeling is that this team was a flash in the pan. Doan is not suddenly a born leader. We get a chance to see for ourselves tonight.
Key match-ups
Subban and Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Two very highly touted young blueliners with long names. Although they are unlikely to come face to face at any point in the game, this match-up allows us to watch the potential futures of two powerplays in bud.
Taylor and Tom Pyatt
This will be the second time these two brothers have ever faced off against each other in NHL game action. Last time, Tom played a whopping 15:02 to Taylor’s 9:45. They may both be on a top line, they may both be on a 4th line. Who knows? Maybe they’ll fight.
Bryzgalov and Price
Waivers vs. high draft pick. It’s an interesting match because both teams depend on their goaltending to take them from mediocrity to slightly better than mediocre NHL teams. They represent two ways of goalie acquisition, two methods of goalie development and a range of other contrasts.
(Shane Doan and the Montreal crowd)
This would have been good, but the player managed to arrange a suspension. One opposition player with alleged history of anti-Quebec tendencies. One crowd who loves to boo members of this extended family. Have the crowd forgotten? Will they find a way to boo him anyway? They still boo Bush’s decision to start the Iraq war, so you tell me.
Momentum
For the first time, I feel the Habs have the momentum. And, although what Tobalev said about one game impacting the next is dead on, the very fact that price’s team gave him a game on a platter and he returned them a shining shutout means these guys might actually be pulling in the same direction for the first time in a long time. That and the fact that Phoenix is currently stagnating. Still enjoying a season of overachievement, they have done little to address the way in which they intend to do the repeat.
Coyotes the Habs covet
Dave Tippett
A pretty phenomenal record as a coach to go with his Jack Adams trophy win. He must know a thing or two about the trade to have pulled the tricks he has out of the bag.
Eric Belanger
How Gauthier missed this boat nobody knows. 13+ goals for a checking line player in his last 7 seasons to go with plenty more assists. Lemaire educated and paid a pittance. He got Halpern instead.
Habs the Coyotes covet
Tomas Plekanec
Phoenix may have a few wingers that would look good on the 4th slot on many teams, but their centres aren’t an attractive list. Plekanec is showing again that he’s a top asset at his position, and be rightly coveted by many teams.
Andrei Kostitsyn
You think the Habs had it bad in 2003 with the Kostitsyn pick? The Coyotes, an abysmal team in 2002-03 (and well beyond) traded their 11th overall draft pick that year in a trade I can’t track down, but that clearly didn’t work out that well. They’d have had Carter at 11, but at this stage would be happy to have even Kostitsyn as their NHL-free draft class of 2003 is still headed by Tyler Redenbach.
Ready-made excuses
If Montreal lose:
- We won Saturday
- Markov is injured
- Paul Bissonnette’s rump wasn’t properly guarded against
- Phoenix are a 100-point team
If Phoenix lose:
- Doan is suspended
- Doan was still booed in the press box
- Doan asked that the team let his cousin win
Impact of this result
The NHL is tight, and the Northeast even tighter. The Canadiens need to take advantage of games against random rival like Phoenix to pad their lead against the eventual resurgences of New Jersey, Ottawa and Buffalo. The impact of this game might not be playoffs or not, but at the end of the day, these two points could look very good in February/March.
The same goes for Phoenix of course. The difference being that Phoenix doesn’t expect the way Montreal does. If they sneak an 8th spot, it may be just as good to the first-time April visitors to the arena as a 1st place barnstorming.
As they roll into town tonight, the Coyotes are in tough. Their offseason improvements included the additions of 38-year-old Ray Whiney and 21-year-old Kyle Turris. Otherwise, they return the same team that rode fortune to a successful close last year. My personal feeling is that this team was a flash in the pan. Doan is not suddenly a born leader. We get a chance to see for ourselves tonight.
Key match-ups
Subban and Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Two very highly touted young blueliners with long names. Although they are unlikely to come face to face at any point in the game, this match-up allows us to watch the potential futures of two powerplays in bud.
Taylor and Tom Pyatt
This will be the second time these two brothers have ever faced off against each other in NHL game action. Last time, Tom played a whopping 15:02 to Taylor’s 9:45. They may both be on a top line, they may both be on a 4th line. Who knows? Maybe they’ll fight.
Bryzgalov and Price
Waivers vs. high draft pick. It’s an interesting match because both teams depend on their goaltending to take them from mediocrity to slightly better than mediocre NHL teams. They represent two ways of goalie acquisition, two methods of goalie development and a range of other contrasts.
(Shane Doan and the Montreal crowd)
This would have been good, but the player managed to arrange a suspension. One opposition player with alleged history of anti-Quebec tendencies. One crowd who loves to boo members of this extended family. Have the crowd forgotten? Will they find a way to boo him anyway? They still boo Bush’s decision to start the Iraq war, so you tell me.
Momentum
For the first time, I feel the Habs have the momentum. And, although what Tobalev said about one game impacting the next is dead on, the very fact that price’s team gave him a game on a platter and he returned them a shining shutout means these guys might actually be pulling in the same direction for the first time in a long time. That and the fact that Phoenix is currently stagnating. Still enjoying a season of overachievement, they have done little to address the way in which they intend to do the repeat.
Coyotes the Habs covet
Dave Tippett
A pretty phenomenal record as a coach to go with his Jack Adams trophy win. He must know a thing or two about the trade to have pulled the tricks he has out of the bag.
Eric Belanger
How Gauthier missed this boat nobody knows. 13+ goals for a checking line player in his last 7 seasons to go with plenty more assists. Lemaire educated and paid a pittance. He got Halpern instead.
Habs the Coyotes covet
Tomas Plekanec
Phoenix may have a few wingers that would look good on the 4th slot on many teams, but their centres aren’t an attractive list. Plekanec is showing again that he’s a top asset at his position, and be rightly coveted by many teams.
Andrei Kostitsyn
You think the Habs had it bad in 2003 with the Kostitsyn pick? The Coyotes, an abysmal team in 2002-03 (and well beyond) traded their 11th overall draft pick that year in a trade I can’t track down, but that clearly didn’t work out that well. They’d have had Carter at 11, but at this stage would be happy to have even Kostitsyn as their NHL-free draft class of 2003 is still headed by Tyler Redenbach.
Ready-made excuses
If Montreal lose:
- We won Saturday
- Markov is injured
- Paul Bissonnette’s rump wasn’t properly guarded against
- Phoenix are a 100-point team
If Phoenix lose:
- Doan is suspended
- Doan was still booed in the press box
- Doan asked that the team let his cousin win
Impact of this result
The NHL is tight, and the Northeast even tighter. The Canadiens need to take advantage of games against random rival like Phoenix to pad their lead against the eventual resurgences of New Jersey, Ottawa and Buffalo. The impact of this game might not be playoffs or not, but at the end of the day, these two points could look very good in February/March.
The same goes for Phoenix of course. The difference being that Phoenix doesn’t expect the way Montreal does. If they sneak an 8th spot, it may be just as good to the first-time April visitors to the arena as a 1st place barnstorming.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Beware The Devils:
A Preview
After a trip and a break from daily Internet, it's a return to the world of bloggery. To start with then, a look at tonight's game and the issues that surround it.
Key match-ups
Gionta and Matt Taormina
I don't know if they'll ever lay each other this evening or not. But here you have the Canadiens second line winger and the Devils second pairing weak link. Gionta needs out of a slump and injuries to Salvador, Volchenkov and Salmela give him this gift.
Kovalchuk and Price
Playing now occasionally on the right wing, Kovalchuk is known for getting shots in every game he plays in. And shots from the leading goalscorer since the lockout tend to be deadly accurate. If he streaks down the right, he'll know to shoot high. Price needs to be aware of what he's facing.
Devils forecheck vs. Hamrlik and Spacek
Traditionally a strong forecheck against two who seem to enjoy the forecheck less and less each year. Both Hamrlik and Spacek have a bit of a history to forget against the devils and it will be interesting to see if their troubles this season and from the past can be put aside for a game or not.
Pouliot and Pyatt
I know Pouliot's omission from the second line has more to do with Gomez and Gionta's need for spark, but even so the big man must somehow regain his place in the pecking order. If Pyatt overtakes him this evening, it could be a big setback. Pyatt meanwhile will want to solidify his place with some contribution. He's already the coach's golden boy, if he gets G and G going, there's no telling the currency in good will he gains.
Momentum
At a glance, it looks to all be in the Habs favour. But beware buying too much into that. The Canadiens have won their last two and managed points in their last four, but the schedulemakers at the NHL have a habit of taking the wind out of sails in October for this team. No game since Saturday means the momentum of that Ottawa win is only as meaningful as the momentum of the report on Pyatt making line 2. The Devils meanwhile look a stinker. But if I asked Felipe Alou, I think he'd tell me to put money on them in their next few games. For a team like the Devils with talent at all positions, a disappointing record is often the last thing you want them to draw on for motivation when you meet them. Strangely, I feel the momentum is even.
Devils the Habs covet
Zach Parise
New Jersey educated and a dynamic scorer to boot. Kovalchuk has all the press right now, but this Devils team's real diamond is Parise who has seldom disappointed when I've sat down to watch him.
Colin White
As players changed in New Jersey over the years, results stayed strangely consistent.Brodeur's been there through tick and thick of course. Colin White has too. Quietly, the core defender on the Devils has made a solid career out of keeping play clean in his zone. If Montreal doesn't covet a defender like this, they should.
Habs the Devils covet
Andrei Markov
The talented puck-mover they've missed since Niedermayer turned tail. And more importantly injured to start the season, allowing them to play salary tricks while making a better roster for the playoffs.
Tom Pyatt
For the first time in years, the Devils line up without Jay Pandolfo. Not to say he's irreplaceable, but I'm sure they'd like to have replaced him. Pyatt isn't that player yet, but he could be trained to Pandolfo efficiency in NJ and probably always keep his low price tag. To go with their flash and salary up front, the Devils need some balance on the cheap.
Ready-made excuses
If Montreal lose:
- Markov is injured
- Quebec goalie
- Devils are one of the elite teams in the NHL
- Weren't ready to start the game
If New Jersey lose:
- Kovalchuk is destroying the team
- Brian Rolston's salary
- Quebec posts turned on Brodeur
Impact of this result
Until now games have been relatively meaningless. And they will continue to mean little for a long while. However, this game has the potential to be important to both teams going forward.
For the Habs, with a history of allowing the devils to walk in and take points, and no doubt helping them out of slumps on many occasions, this game could prove that time is over. Kicking the Devils while they're down, and particularly contributing to Brodeur's bad start could banish a significant bugaboo for this team. Needless to say, turning the trick would be beneficial to Carey again, as beating a Hall-of-Famer is always a boost.
For the devils, a win here could really kick start their road to recovery. A small win, perhaps not. A big win, certainly. If Brodeur gets his customary support from former Forum ghosts, then his slump too might be a thing for memory.
Key match-ups
Gionta and Matt Taormina
I don't know if they'll ever lay each other this evening or not. But here you have the Canadiens second line winger and the Devils second pairing weak link. Gionta needs out of a slump and injuries to Salvador, Volchenkov and Salmela give him this gift.
Kovalchuk and Price
Playing now occasionally on the right wing, Kovalchuk is known for getting shots in every game he plays in. And shots from the leading goalscorer since the lockout tend to be deadly accurate. If he streaks down the right, he'll know to shoot high. Price needs to be aware of what he's facing.
Devils forecheck vs. Hamrlik and Spacek
Traditionally a strong forecheck against two who seem to enjoy the forecheck less and less each year. Both Hamrlik and Spacek have a bit of a history to forget against the devils and it will be interesting to see if their troubles this season and from the past can be put aside for a game or not.
Pouliot and Pyatt
I know Pouliot's omission from the second line has more to do with Gomez and Gionta's need for spark, but even so the big man must somehow regain his place in the pecking order. If Pyatt overtakes him this evening, it could be a big setback. Pyatt meanwhile will want to solidify his place with some contribution. He's already the coach's golden boy, if he gets G and G going, there's no telling the currency in good will he gains.
Momentum
At a glance, it looks to all be in the Habs favour. But beware buying too much into that. The Canadiens have won their last two and managed points in their last four, but the schedulemakers at the NHL have a habit of taking the wind out of sails in October for this team. No game since Saturday means the momentum of that Ottawa win is only as meaningful as the momentum of the report on Pyatt making line 2. The Devils meanwhile look a stinker. But if I asked Felipe Alou, I think he'd tell me to put money on them in their next few games. For a team like the Devils with talent at all positions, a disappointing record is often the last thing you want them to draw on for motivation when you meet them. Strangely, I feel the momentum is even.
Devils the Habs covet
Zach Parise
New Jersey educated and a dynamic scorer to boot. Kovalchuk has all the press right now, but this Devils team's real diamond is Parise who has seldom disappointed when I've sat down to watch him.
Colin White
As players changed in New Jersey over the years, results stayed strangely consistent.Brodeur's been there through tick and thick of course. Colin White has too. Quietly, the core defender on the Devils has made a solid career out of keeping play clean in his zone. If Montreal doesn't covet a defender like this, they should.
Habs the Devils covet
Andrei Markov
The talented puck-mover they've missed since Niedermayer turned tail. And more importantly injured to start the season, allowing them to play salary tricks while making a better roster for the playoffs.
Tom Pyatt
For the first time in years, the Devils line up without Jay Pandolfo. Not to say he's irreplaceable, but I'm sure they'd like to have replaced him. Pyatt isn't that player yet, but he could be trained to Pandolfo efficiency in NJ and probably always keep his low price tag. To go with their flash and salary up front, the Devils need some balance on the cheap.
Ready-made excuses
If Montreal lose:
- Markov is injured
- Quebec goalie
- Devils are one of the elite teams in the NHL
- Weren't ready to start the game
If New Jersey lose:
- Kovalchuk is destroying the team
- Brian Rolston's salary
- Quebec posts turned on Brodeur
Impact of this result
Until now games have been relatively meaningless. And they will continue to mean little for a long while. However, this game has the potential to be important to both teams going forward.
For the Habs, with a history of allowing the devils to walk in and take points, and no doubt helping them out of slumps on many occasions, this game could prove that time is over. Kicking the Devils while they're down, and particularly contributing to Brodeur's bad start could banish a significant bugaboo for this team. Needless to say, turning the trick would be beneficial to Carey again, as beating a Hall-of-Famer is always a boost.
For the devils, a win here could really kick start their road to recovery. A small win, perhaps not. A big win, certainly. If Brodeur gets his customary support from former Forum ghosts, then his slump too might be a thing for memory.
Saturday, October 09, 2010
Meeting At The New Igloo:
A Preview
A preview for Game 2. As before, we steer clear of lines and pairings and other news from Brossard and look to more important things for this match-up with the Penguins.
Key match-ups
Crosby and Plekanec
In May, Halak handed the penguins their walking papers, but it was Plekanec who handed Crosby his lunch. The Stanley Cup champ was hounded and humbled to a single goal and a minus contribution to his team. Though I'm sure we're all very worried that Letang is motivated by hate, it's Crosby's dislike of Plekanec that might be of most interest. Plekanec is ready for the season as always and is probably more than ready to replicate his form.
Fleury and Price
Two goalies who started young. One has won a Cup and so is held up as a standard for the other. Both had average numbers in 2009-10, both are looking to get above 0.900 in save percentage this year. Should be interesting to see who makes the important stops.
Letang and Subban
Two young offensive defencemen ready to accept new roles on their teams. I'm actually more interested to see if Letang's hatred can help him to defend a Subban rush.
Cooke and O'Byrne
Matt Cooke has a lot to answer for with Josh Gorges. When Matt Cooke injured Andrei Markov, it was a chance for Martin to humiliate Ryan O'Byrne by choosing to bench him in the playoffs. To start this season, O'Byrne has to suffer playing with Picard because Markov's injury lingers on, and when Markov returns will probably have lost his job to Picard. Man, he must want to pummel Cooke. Cooke, of course, doesn't know O'Byrne because the 6'5" Dman is usually hiding when the rough stuff that Cooke instigates gets under way.
Momentum
Backwards. Both teams have opened their seasons with losses. Both teams made their goalies look beatable. And both teams stars were on for important goals against. The Penguins were expected to storm and now might be downgraded to cruise through the East. The Habs didn't win when they could've, should've, would've.
On the bright side, there are no ties in the NHL anymore, so someone will get a win.
Penguins the Habs covet
Sydney Crosby
Makes things happen all on his own. He could probably even make a scorer out of a Pouliot with disinterested positioning.
Maxime Talbot
A French Canadian sure thing. He's like the Lapierre who doesn't take half seasons off. This Canadiens management would dearly love a player like Talbot.
Habs the Penguins covet
Mike Cammalleri
A winger.
Brian Gionta
A winger.
Andrei Kostitsyn
A winger.
Benoit Pouliot
A winger.
Tomas Plekanec
Can play wing.
Ready-made excuses
Michel Therrien's not in either city anymore, so honest indictments of goalies are unlikely after this one. More likely, one of these excuses for a loss:
If Montreal lose:
- Markov is injured
- Crosby plays for them
- French Canadian goalies always shut us out
- We played Thursday
- Our defensive strategy relies on a lot of luck, sorry
If Pittsburgh lose:
- We're tired from delivering season tickets all day
- We thought Paul Martin would mask all our defensive deficiencies
- Fleury is still young
- They forced us to play the puck to wingers
Impact of this result
Pittsburgh will make the playoffs this year, so this game is for positioning. The impact of a win or a loss is little really, since the President's trophy is meaningless and playoff winning will depend so much more on which wingers are added at the trade deadline than those playing tonight.
If Price loses again, I think there will be some kind of exorcism, as he will start to believe there's a cloud over him again and thereby resign to not moving his left arm all season. If the Habs win, all will be forgotten and euphoria will sweep the city until the next practice when lines are revealed.
On a serious note, Pouliot is on thin ice. As coaching decisions are made on a shift-by-shift basis in this city now, he must out-perform Eller tonight or start seriously considering community college.
Key match-ups
Crosby and Plekanec
In May, Halak handed the penguins their walking papers, but it was Plekanec who handed Crosby his lunch. The Stanley Cup champ was hounded and humbled to a single goal and a minus contribution to his team. Though I'm sure we're all very worried that Letang is motivated by hate, it's Crosby's dislike of Plekanec that might be of most interest. Plekanec is ready for the season as always and is probably more than ready to replicate his form.
Fleury and Price
Two goalies who started young. One has won a Cup and so is held up as a standard for the other. Both had average numbers in 2009-10, both are looking to get above 0.900 in save percentage this year. Should be interesting to see who makes the important stops.
Letang and Subban
Two young offensive defencemen ready to accept new roles on their teams. I'm actually more interested to see if Letang's hatred can help him to defend a Subban rush.
Cooke and O'Byrne
Matt Cooke has a lot to answer for with Josh Gorges. When Matt Cooke injured Andrei Markov, it was a chance for Martin to humiliate Ryan O'Byrne by choosing to bench him in the playoffs. To start this season, O'Byrne has to suffer playing with Picard because Markov's injury lingers on, and when Markov returns will probably have lost his job to Picard. Man, he must want to pummel Cooke. Cooke, of course, doesn't know O'Byrne because the 6'5" Dman is usually hiding when the rough stuff that Cooke instigates gets under way.
Momentum
Backwards. Both teams have opened their seasons with losses. Both teams made their goalies look beatable. And both teams stars were on for important goals against. The Penguins were expected to storm and now might be downgraded to cruise through the East. The Habs didn't win when they could've, should've, would've.
On the bright side, there are no ties in the NHL anymore, so someone will get a win.
Penguins the Habs covet
Sydney Crosby
Makes things happen all on his own. He could probably even make a scorer out of a Pouliot with disinterested positioning.
Maxime Talbot
A French Canadian sure thing. He's like the Lapierre who doesn't take half seasons off. This Canadiens management would dearly love a player like Talbot.
Habs the Penguins covet
Mike Cammalleri
A winger.
Brian Gionta
A winger.
Andrei Kostitsyn
A winger.
Benoit Pouliot
A winger.
Tomas Plekanec
Can play wing.
Ready-made excuses
Michel Therrien's not in either city anymore, so honest indictments of goalies are unlikely after this one. More likely, one of these excuses for a loss:
If Montreal lose:
- Markov is injured
- Crosby plays for them
- French Canadian goalies always shut us out
- We played Thursday
- Our defensive strategy relies on a lot of luck, sorry
If Pittsburgh lose:
- We're tired from delivering season tickets all day
- We thought Paul Martin would mask all our defensive deficiencies
- Fleury is still young
- They forced us to play the puck to wingers
Impact of this result
Pittsburgh will make the playoffs this year, so this game is for positioning. The impact of a win or a loss is little really, since the President's trophy is meaningless and playoff winning will depend so much more on which wingers are added at the trade deadline than those playing tonight.
If Price loses again, I think there will be some kind of exorcism, as he will start to believe there's a cloud over him again and thereby resign to not moving his left arm all season. If the Habs win, all will be forgotten and euphoria will sweep the city until the next practice when lines are revealed.
On a serious note, Pouliot is on thin ice. As coaching decisions are made on a shift-by-shift basis in this city now, he must out-perform Eller tonight or start seriously considering community college.
Thursday, October 07, 2010
Habs and Leafs in Hogtown
A Preview
The season is upon us. There's a game at noon! So we need to get ready.
For you here is the first game preview of the season.
I figured, you knew the lineups, you knew the lines that would last for the first 5 minutes and you knew all the basic news, so I thought I'd try to look at things differently and add: Key match-ups, Momentum, Players the other side covets, Ready-made excuses, and the ultimate Impact of this result.
Key match-ups
Kessel andAuld Price
Kessel shoots from just about anywhere, and the Habs defence let up shots from just about anywhere as a strategy. It will be down to Kessel's accuracy vs.Auld's Price's positioning and size.
Komisarek and Moen
Komisarek is still looking to prove to Montreal TV audiences that he intimidates people. Last season, he opened with 15 PIM, including a double minor for high-sticking and a fight with Travis Moen. His final penalty led to the tying goal and ultimately the first Leafs loss of the season. Moen is the only player on the Habs who "can" fight. The team once again chose to recognize that 84% of NHL teams don't even have a fighter, so Moen can get pummeled in Toronto if it means having forwards on the roster. Should be fun for him.
Gionta and Phaneuf
The new captains will be squaring off for the HNIC spotlight on opening night for the season. Gionta is already under pressure to learn how to speak French. Phaneuf is already under pressure to learn to skate backwards.
Todd Warriner and Patrice Brisebois
Habs and Leafs fans both have reason for optimism as victory on the ice actually seems within reach this season. Alums Todd Warriner and Patrice Brisebois both survive to skate against Kelly Chase another day on Battle of the Blades. Needless to say, there's work to be done for both. For Warriner, learning to speak French could help him with Isabelle Brassuer. For Brisebois, learning to skate backwards is still on the do list.
Momentum
In reality: none. Training camp is a farce and I can hardly believe it is televised.
In fantasy world, the Leafs are counting on the "strong finish" from last season to spur them to at least three October victories. Similarly, the Habs believe that playoffs rounds 1 and 2 (all the same players, almost, remember) is their impetus going forward.
Leafs the Habs covet
Phil Kessel
Phil really stands out on the Leafs for possessing exceptional natural talent. On a roster laden with guys who want to push the net over the puck, Phil shines with the quickest of releases teamed with sharp accuracy. He'd be an expensive addition to any team (see no draft picks for a few years), but guaranteed scoring is worth it.
Tomas Kaberle
Even as he greys a little on top, he is still one of the smoothest and canniest passers in the league. Perhaps he doesn't fir the Leafs plans for their own reasons, and might not fit other teams because of defensive concerns, but with skills like his, you make allowances.
Habs the Leafs covet
Mike Cammalleri
More than anyone on the roster, Cammalleri is the one they longed for. The Habs signature of the Toronto sniper not only deprived the Leafs of a season with forwards, but also ultimately led to the fiasco that was the Kessel trade (even though we admire Kessel, a free agent would have allowed the MLs to keep that top pick, and the next top pick).
PK Subban
The Leafs' parent club Boston Bruins are looking to accept draft picks and a good prospect in another annual trade, but they are asking for a decent defensive prospect. Sadly the Leafs might have to look elsewhere to dump their selections in the 2013, 2014 and 2015 drafts. Subban might have been the ticket.
Ready-made excuses
In Toronto and Montreal, the only sport more popular than hockey is scapegoat hunting. Over the years, this has led to players, trainers, coaches and managers adapting the uncanny ability to wriggle free like earthworms trapped in the maw. I figure to do this, they need some excuses ready. Luckily, they've had a whole summer to think of these.
If Montreal lose:
- Markov is injured
- The goaltending coach is working hard on that every day
- This new group of guys really needs time to gel
- Our defensive strategy relies on a lot of luck, sorry
- Halak lost too
When Toronto lose:
- We had a strong finish to the game and that will provide our momentum going forward
- We thought the fans were booing us, so we stopped shooting high glove side
- Kaberle is distracting us
- You can't judge this team during the portion of the season where the refs ref, it wasn't built for that (see: strong finish)
Impact of this result
In Toronto, fans really are a bit more even-keeled than in Montreal. They will give the team plenty of leeway this season to grow and take advantage of the deft maneuvering that created the defense that boasts five potential 30-point men, to go with the two they have at forward. A win will be greeted with knowing nods and uneasy optimism. A loss with knowing nods and familiar pessimism. Either way, Kaberle really must go.
In Montreal, I expect everything will be viewed through the in-net camera. The Halak trade made an already focused group into one completely obsessed by goaltending. If Auld should win, the inevitable cascade of praise will lead to questioning of Carey Price. If Auld should lose, the hand wringing will be followed by the questioning of Carey Price.
Sometimes, you have to wonder if they even need to play the games. Both teams could really use the points, however. And, in all seriousness, these 2 points look to be deciders for these teams that fancy themselves contenders.
For you here is the first game preview of the season.
I figured, you knew the lineups, you knew the lines that would last for the first 5 minutes and you knew all the basic news, so I thought I'd try to look at things differently and add: Key match-ups, Momentum, Players the other side covets, Ready-made excuses, and the ultimate Impact of this result.
Key match-ups
Kessel and
Kessel shoots from just about anywhere, and the Habs defence let up shots from just about anywhere as a strategy. It will be down to Kessel's accuracy vs.
Komisarek and Moen
Komisarek is still looking to prove to Montreal TV audiences that he intimidates people. Last season, he opened with 15 PIM, including a double minor for high-sticking and a fight with Travis Moen. His final penalty led to the tying goal and ultimately the first Leafs loss of the season. Moen is the only player on the Habs who "can" fight. The team once again chose to recognize that 84% of NHL teams don't even have a fighter, so Moen can get pummeled in Toronto if it means having forwards on the roster. Should be fun for him.
Gionta and Phaneuf
The new captains will be squaring off for the HNIC spotlight on opening night for the season. Gionta is already under pressure to learn how to speak French. Phaneuf is already under pressure to learn to skate backwards.
Todd Warriner and Patrice Brisebois
Habs and Leafs fans both have reason for optimism as victory on the ice actually seems within reach this season. Alums Todd Warriner and Patrice Brisebois both survive to skate against Kelly Chase another day on Battle of the Blades. Needless to say, there's work to be done for both. For Warriner, learning to speak French could help him with Isabelle Brassuer. For Brisebois, learning to skate backwards is still on the do list.
Momentum
In reality: none. Training camp is a farce and I can hardly believe it is televised.
In fantasy world, the Leafs are counting on the "strong finish" from last season to spur them to at least three October victories. Similarly, the Habs believe that playoffs rounds 1 and 2 (all the same players, almost, remember) is their impetus going forward.
Leafs the Habs covet
Phil Kessel
Phil really stands out on the Leafs for possessing exceptional natural talent. On a roster laden with guys who want to push the net over the puck, Phil shines with the quickest of releases teamed with sharp accuracy. He'd be an expensive addition to any team (see no draft picks for a few years), but guaranteed scoring is worth it.
Tomas Kaberle
Even as he greys a little on top, he is still one of the smoothest and canniest passers in the league. Perhaps he doesn't fir the Leafs plans for their own reasons, and might not fit other teams because of defensive concerns, but with skills like his, you make allowances.
Habs the Leafs covet
Mike Cammalleri
More than anyone on the roster, Cammalleri is the one they longed for. The Habs signature of the Toronto sniper not only deprived the Leafs of a season with forwards, but also ultimately led to the fiasco that was the Kessel trade (even though we admire Kessel, a free agent would have allowed the MLs to keep that top pick, and the next top pick).
PK Subban
The Leafs' parent club Boston Bruins are looking to accept draft picks and a good prospect in another annual trade, but they are asking for a decent defensive prospect. Sadly the Leafs might have to look elsewhere to dump their selections in the 2013, 2014 and 2015 drafts. Subban might have been the ticket.
Ready-made excuses
In Toronto and Montreal, the only sport more popular than hockey is scapegoat hunting. Over the years, this has led to players, trainers, coaches and managers adapting the uncanny ability to wriggle free like earthworms trapped in the maw. I figure to do this, they need some excuses ready. Luckily, they've had a whole summer to think of these.
If Montreal lose:
- Markov is injured
- The goaltending coach is working hard on that every day
- This new group of guys really needs time to gel
- Our defensive strategy relies on a lot of luck, sorry
- Halak lost too
When Toronto lose:
- We had a strong finish to the game and that will provide our momentum going forward
- We thought the fans were booing us, so we stopped shooting high glove side
- Kaberle is distracting us
- You can't judge this team during the portion of the season where the refs ref, it wasn't built for that (see: strong finish)
Impact of this result
In Toronto, fans really are a bit more even-keeled than in Montreal. They will give the team plenty of leeway this season to grow and take advantage of the deft maneuvering that created the defense that boasts five potential 30-point men, to go with the two they have at forward. A win will be greeted with knowing nods and uneasy optimism. A loss with knowing nods and familiar pessimism. Either way, Kaberle really must go.
In Montreal, I expect everything will be viewed through the in-net camera. The Halak trade made an already focused group into one completely obsessed by goaltending. If Auld should win, the inevitable cascade of praise will lead to questioning of Carey Price. If Auld should lose, the hand wringing will be followed by the questioning of Carey Price.
Sometimes, you have to wonder if they even need to play the games. Both teams could really use the points, however. And, in all seriousness, these 2 points look to be deciders for these teams that fancy themselves contenders.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Good Pre-season Reading
Leafs vs. Habs, 2010-11
Stumbled across an interesting little article this afternoon. I thought you might all like to have a look.
Leafs vs. Habs: My take
Forwards: Habs
Defence: Equal
I can't agree that the Leafs have the best defence in the league on paper. Especially not when they played together last season and were not truly impressive. But Habs fans, be careful. The Canadiens defence was one of the worst in a long while for allowing chances and shots. Given that their purpose is to prevent chances and shots, I'd say they need to improve a lot.
Goaltending: Equal
I tend to agree that Giguere still has some in the tank. And with Carey still learning, matching an above average Giguere season would be a step in the right direction. Gustavsson is a wild card here, but he hasn't done enough yet to tip this balance.
Coaching: Undecided
I swing back and forth between the reviewer's view that both are incompetents on their last legs and that both must be competent enough, given their long careers.
Special teams: Habs
Pressure: Habs
Imagine 6 years without playoffs, never mind the Cup.
Cap space: Habs
I have to disagree with Five For Fighting here. Toronto doesn't appear to have any bad contracts, but they must. They are over the cap right now and the top centre on their depth chart is Tyler Bozak. Just because Burke builds up his expenses with incremental bad contracts doesn't mean he's a good cap manager. Grabovski is a bad contract, Kuleimin doesn't compare well across the league, and the minimum level play without many minimum level contracts add up each and every time. The Leafs will have more space next season, but it's likely they'll still need s top line of forwards and a number one goalie, so that money may evaporate fast.
Prospects: Undecided
Overall, I think last year's regular season gives an accurate reflection on the difference between these two teams. Montreal is still a team fighting for the playoffs, while Toronto have some fight but are still just a cut below that.
Perhaps a more relevant question to both groups of fans is whether it's worth debating the difference between these two sides when Pittsburgh, Washington, Philadelphia, New Jersey and others trundle on in the East.
Leafs vs. Habs: My take
Forwards: Habs
Defence: Equal
I can't agree that the Leafs have the best defence in the league on paper. Especially not when they played together last season and were not truly impressive. But Habs fans, be careful. The Canadiens defence was one of the worst in a long while for allowing chances and shots. Given that their purpose is to prevent chances and shots, I'd say they need to improve a lot.
Goaltending: Equal
I tend to agree that Giguere still has some in the tank. And with Carey still learning, matching an above average Giguere season would be a step in the right direction. Gustavsson is a wild card here, but he hasn't done enough yet to tip this balance.
Coaching: Undecided
I swing back and forth between the reviewer's view that both are incompetents on their last legs and that both must be competent enough, given their long careers.
Special teams: Habs
Pressure: Habs
Imagine 6 years without playoffs, never mind the Cup.
Cap space: Habs
I have to disagree with Five For Fighting here. Toronto doesn't appear to have any bad contracts, but they must. They are over the cap right now and the top centre on their depth chart is Tyler Bozak. Just because Burke builds up his expenses with incremental bad contracts doesn't mean he's a good cap manager. Grabovski is a bad contract, Kuleimin doesn't compare well across the league, and the minimum level play without many minimum level contracts add up each and every time. The Leafs will have more space next season, but it's likely they'll still need s top line of forwards and a number one goalie, so that money may evaporate fast.
Prospects: Undecided
Overall, I think last year's regular season gives an accurate reflection on the difference between these two teams. Montreal is still a team fighting for the playoffs, while Toronto have some fight but are still just a cut below that.
Perhaps a more relevant question to both groups of fans is whether it's worth debating the difference between these two sides when Pittsburgh, Washington, Philadelphia, New Jersey and others trundle on in the East.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Latendresse Vs. Pouliot
Season Preview All Over Again
In the style of the beloved season previews, I offer to you Benoit Pouliot's belated preview next to the now very optimistic-looking one we did for Latendresse in September. While it certainly shows we lost a good player who many of us thought had some promise, it also reveals some surprises about the new Canadiens forward.
Guillaume Latendresse
Legend
Stats notes
You could go many ways in interpreting these stats. Many numbers show clear decline, despite the progress that Gui is touted for. On the other hand, there is some stability within them too. The things to note:
1) Gui shoots straight
It's perhaps not that surprising that the skill that got him to the NHL is the one that stands out. 12.0% in an off year is not a stat I'd ever sneeze at.
2) Good production at even strength, considering
About a goal every 60 minutes of ice time is a good average to carry in you NHL career. Considering Gui's been bumped around lines a lot, not been given primo PP time and played with chance sink Kostopoulos a lot last year, then I find that encouraging. Hopefully he keeps up the pace.
3) Wonky even strength profile
As much as I'd like to think that Gui is one of the best defensive forwards on the team, the fact that I do have eyes helps me over the feeling. His profile shows us the danger of taking things out of context. Last season, Gui played at all the right times and missed the worst Price/Halak had to offer. Has it skewed the profile? Is Guillaume really 2nd best in Corsi? Perhaps the Canadiens lost all those games because he was injured? Impossible to tell for certain in a one-off experiment, but again, we do all have eyes, and sense.
As we've mentioned, 2009-10 is a big season for Latendresse. Because let's face it, another 14-16 goal campaign, while fine, certainly doesn't add to the lustre of the future 30-goal man argument. And, if it is to be 15 goals a year from here on in, then someone, somewhere is bound to surpass him, at least in terms of potential.
His shooting accuracy teamed with a new approach to shooting more should help. His defensive game and any improvement in the purpose of his hitting will make this line a very threatening one.
Tobalev on Latendresse
For some reason I am excited about Latendresse this year. Maybe it is because I see him as the best of the players from my home province, maybe it's because he is one of the longest serving Habs, or maybe it is because I actually sense a big season coming on. Whatever happens with goals and assists, Latendresse is still a player that wants to play for the Habs and generally tries pretty hard, despite some talent shortcomings.
Unfortunately for Gui, however, nothing is guaranteed. There are signs, after all that point to him not having that great of a season. His production levels have been stable for 3 years, he seems to be getting slower and he may very well get crowded out of the top-6/PP.
On the positive side, I think his new status on the team (best Quebecer) will help him, especially early in the season. Many fans and new teammates will look to him now as a leader and not just a prospect. If he can get in Martin’s good books and get himself onto a scoring line early on then I could see him there all year. If he makes the most of these chances when provided, the outlook could brighten in a hurry – I really think he could score 25 goals.
The more likely scenario, however, is that he gets bounced between the top 3 lines and into/out of the PP (thanks to injuries, slumps etc.). This will hurt his production and that is why I think he’ll likely top out at 30-35 points with most of those coming as goals.
Where Latendresse will start 2009-10: Carrying the torch for millions
Where Latendresse will end 2009-10: With a new appreciation for what he can do in this league
Points: 21 G, 24 A, 45 Pts
Benoit Pouliot
Legend
Stats notes
The first impression when looking at these stats side by side is something like: "My goodness, we were fleeced..." But as we know statistics do need interpreting. And, as we all recall, Guillaume's stats from last year flattered him. As this was a trade, we'll do this a bit differently, pointing out a few differences I think it is absolutely vital to note. Note also, that being a Habs fan who wants to view this trade in a positive light, I'll leave the negative comparisons to you readers to make:
1) Shot totals
Prior to this season, Benoit Pouliot managed a measly 45 shots in 51 games. Guillaume had that many shots in his NHL career well before his 20th birthday. It's worth noting because whether it be linemates, coaching or something else, Pouliot has just never had the chance to let loose his shot (of similar accuracy based on %) compared to Gui. Is he a Sergei Kostitsyn who holds and hold and holds? Perhaps, but the scouts in 2005 didn't think so.
2) Defensive numbers
Guillaume from his profile showed a good defensive player (though we mentioned this was puzzling to those who had observed him). Pouliot really does one up him. Now before you go and say that Benoit has benefited from being on the Wild, do first consider that his 1.53 GA/60 was third on the team after Boogaard and Kolanos. Other young forwards like Clutterbuck (2.11) and James Sheppard (2.84) lagged behind his defensive responsibility greatly. What's more only Pouliot came out positive on +/- from the youngsters. Not all bad from the guy with 14 previous games under his belt.
3) Games played
I alluded to experience in shots. Well, Pouliot (from the same draft year as Latendresse) has played 167 less games in all. This is also critical for waivers. Benoit Pouliot signed his first NHL contract in May 2006 at age 19. As such, it set the clock on his waiver exemption to 4 seasons or 160 games (whichever came first). Given that he's nowhere near reaching 160 games anytime soon, it means the time limit on him seeing waivers will be the outset of next season. Of course, for the Canadiens, this provides another player they can ship up and down to Hamilton (like Sergei Kostitsyn, Pyatt, White, etc.). Guillaume Latendresse would have had to clear waivers to go to Hamilton, which had been the case since his 160th game early last season. No matter how few goals he scored, how badly he sulked or how much he needed a wake up call – Gainey's hands were tied on Guillaume. Don't underestimate this factor in the trade that just occurred.
A simple glance at the stats says loss for Gainey in this file. But under a bit more scrutiny, Gainey has manufactured a bit more flex with his roster by simply trading one 2-goalscorer with potential to do more for another. When injuries heal, I truly think this flexibility will tip the balance in the Habs favour, espeically if Sulkatron-2000 was going to react to benching anything like he reacted to be being traded.
Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier
Guillaume Latendresse
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | GWG | G/60 | Pts/60 | Sh | S% | PIM |
| 08-09 (MTL) | 56 | 14 | 12 | 26 | +4 | 1 | 2 | 1.10 | 2.05 | 117 | 12.0 | 45 |
| 07-08 (MTL) | 73 | 16 | 11 | 27 | -2 | 2 | 3 | 1.07 | 1.81 | 116 | 13.8 | 41 |
| 06-07 (MTL) | 80 | 16 | 13 | 29 | -20 | 5 | 3 | 0.95 | 1.73 | 121 | 13.2 | 47 |
| Even-strength profile | |
 |
|
Stats notes
You could go many ways in interpreting these stats. Many numbers show clear decline, despite the progress that Gui is touted for. On the other hand, there is some stability within them too. The things to note:
1) Gui shoots straight
It's perhaps not that surprising that the skill that got him to the NHL is the one that stands out. 12.0% in an off year is not a stat I'd ever sneeze at.
2) Good production at even strength, considering
About a goal every 60 minutes of ice time is a good average to carry in you NHL career. Considering Gui's been bumped around lines a lot, not been given primo PP time and played with chance sink Kostopoulos a lot last year, then I find that encouraging. Hopefully he keeps up the pace.
3) Wonky even strength profile
As much as I'd like to think that Gui is one of the best defensive forwards on the team, the fact that I do have eyes helps me over the feeling. His profile shows us the danger of taking things out of context. Last season, Gui played at all the right times and missed the worst Price/Halak had to offer. Has it skewed the profile? Is Guillaume really 2nd best in Corsi? Perhaps the Canadiens lost all those games because he was injured? Impossible to tell for certain in a one-off experiment, but again, we do all have eyes, and sense.
As we've mentioned, 2009-10 is a big season for Latendresse. Because let's face it, another 14-16 goal campaign, while fine, certainly doesn't add to the lustre of the future 30-goal man argument. And, if it is to be 15 goals a year from here on in, then someone, somewhere is bound to surpass him, at least in terms of potential.
His shooting accuracy teamed with a new approach to shooting more should help. His defensive game and any improvement in the purpose of his hitting will make this line a very threatening one.
Tobalev on Latendresse
For some reason I am excited about Latendresse this year. Maybe it is because I see him as the best of the players from my home province, maybe it's because he is one of the longest serving Habs, or maybe it is because I actually sense a big season coming on. Whatever happens with goals and assists, Latendresse is still a player that wants to play for the Habs and generally tries pretty hard, despite some talent shortcomings.
Unfortunately for Gui, however, nothing is guaranteed. There are signs, after all that point to him not having that great of a season. His production levels have been stable for 3 years, he seems to be getting slower and he may very well get crowded out of the top-6/PP.
On the positive side, I think his new status on the team (best Quebecer) will help him, especially early in the season. Many fans and new teammates will look to him now as a leader and not just a prospect. If he can get in Martin’s good books and get himself onto a scoring line early on then I could see him there all year. If he makes the most of these chances when provided, the outlook could brighten in a hurry – I really think he could score 25 goals.
The more likely scenario, however, is that he gets bounced between the top 3 lines and into/out of the PP (thanks to injuries, slumps etc.). This will hurt his production and that is why I think he’ll likely top out at 30-35 points with most of those coming as goals.
Where Latendresse will start 2009-10: Carrying the torch for millions
Where Latendresse will end 2009-10: With a new appreciation for what he can do in this league
Points: 21 G, 24 A, 45 Pts
Benoit Pouliot
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | GWG | G/60 | Pts/60 | Sh | S% | PIM |
| 08-09 (MIN) | 37 | 5 | 6 | 11 | +1 | 2 | 1 | 0.68 | 1.51 | 34 | 14.7 | 18 |
| 07-08 (MIN) | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1.24 | 1.86 | 10 | 20.0 | 0 |
| 06-07 (MIN) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Even-strength profile | |
 |
|
Stats notes
The first impression when looking at these stats side by side is something like: "My goodness, we were fleeced..." But as we know statistics do need interpreting. And, as we all recall, Guillaume's stats from last year flattered him. As this was a trade, we'll do this a bit differently, pointing out a few differences I think it is absolutely vital to note. Note also, that being a Habs fan who wants to view this trade in a positive light, I'll leave the negative comparisons to you readers to make:
1) Shot totals
Prior to this season, Benoit Pouliot managed a measly 45 shots in 51 games. Guillaume had that many shots in his NHL career well before his 20th birthday. It's worth noting because whether it be linemates, coaching or something else, Pouliot has just never had the chance to let loose his shot (of similar accuracy based on %) compared to Gui. Is he a Sergei Kostitsyn who holds and hold and holds? Perhaps, but the scouts in 2005 didn't think so.
2) Defensive numbers
Guillaume from his profile showed a good defensive player (though we mentioned this was puzzling to those who had observed him). Pouliot really does one up him. Now before you go and say that Benoit has benefited from being on the Wild, do first consider that his 1.53 GA/60 was third on the team after Boogaard and Kolanos. Other young forwards like Clutterbuck (2.11) and James Sheppard (2.84) lagged behind his defensive responsibility greatly. What's more only Pouliot came out positive on +/- from the youngsters. Not all bad from the guy with 14 previous games under his belt.
3) Games played
I alluded to experience in shots. Well, Pouliot (from the same draft year as Latendresse) has played 167 less games in all. This is also critical for waivers. Benoit Pouliot signed his first NHL contract in May 2006 at age 19. As such, it set the clock on his waiver exemption to 4 seasons or 160 games (whichever came first). Given that he's nowhere near reaching 160 games anytime soon, it means the time limit on him seeing waivers will be the outset of next season. Of course, for the Canadiens, this provides another player they can ship up and down to Hamilton (like Sergei Kostitsyn, Pyatt, White, etc.). Guillaume Latendresse would have had to clear waivers to go to Hamilton, which had been the case since his 160th game early last season. No matter how few goals he scored, how badly he sulked or how much he needed a wake up call – Gainey's hands were tied on Guillaume. Don't underestimate this factor in the trade that just occurred.
A simple glance at the stats says loss for Gainey in this file. But under a bit more scrutiny, Gainey has manufactured a bit more flex with his roster by simply trading one 2-goalscorer with potential to do more for another. When injuries heal, I truly think this flexibility will tip the balance in the Habs favour, espeically if Sulkatron-2000 was going to react to benching anything like he reacted to be being traded.
Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier
Thursday, October 01, 2009
Tonight We See
Habs At Leafs Preview
A little sneak preview of tonight's game. Though it's not all based on carefully weighed stats (I hope that's alright), Game #1 gives an opportunity to have some more fun, before results cloud the real picture...
The (alleged) lines
Pacioretty - Gomez - Gionta
Cammalleri - Plekanec - Kostitsyn
Latendresse - Lapierre - D'Agostini
Moen - Metropolit - Laraque
Markov - Spacek
Gill - Mara
Gorges - O'Byrne
Price
The opposition
Maple Leafs.
Popular gravitation to the word truculent – because it's the first word in the dictionary that new GM found that he could apply to his team. Funnily, hopes for descriptors beginning with "Contendin", "Goo", "Grea", "Playoff-boun" and "Skille" were thrown out in early July, search for new tag was commissioned.
Key strengths: PR, sales
Key weaknesses: Forwards, goaltending, and if you go by last year, defence (3.49 GA/G)
The strategy
Shoot, shoot, shoot. Test goalies and defence's weakness with the other part of hockey (aka, playing the puck) early and often. Don't get sucked into a fight – it's their only advantage and they know it.
The momentum
0 playoff wins vs. 0 playoff wins – a toss up. Leafs and Habs is always a toss up (recently).
The relevant
1) RDS "Zone de Match" – not ready
2) Tobalev's Game Reviews – very ready
The irrelevant
1) Pat Hickey's bland follow-up to his enticing title: "Price the fly in ointment"
2) Everything Brian Burke says
Quote for the day
(Not quite Jose Mourinho, but a nice polite slap in the face from Gainey)
On dismissing the genius' plan:
The (alleged) lines
Pacioretty - Gomez - Gionta
Cammalleri - Plekanec - Kostitsyn
Latendresse - Lapierre - D'Agostini
Moen - Metropolit - Laraque
Markov - Spacek
Gill - Mara
Gorges - O'Byrne
Price
- Don't like Pacioretty on the first line, no matter how much good skating he does on his goalless shifts – if I were Sergei, I'd be upset at this too
- Do like Cammalleri with Plekanec
- Defence should change if Hamrlik is healthy – Gorges and O'Byrne is a mistake
- Price the starter – more questions abound on the meritocracy in Sergei's head
The opposition
Maple Leafs.
Popular gravitation to the word truculent – because it's the first word in the dictionary that new GM found that he could apply to his team. Funnily, hopes for descriptors beginning with "Contendin", "Goo", "Grea", "Playoff-boun" and "Skille" were thrown out in early July, search for new tag was commissioned.
Key strengths: PR, sales
Key weaknesses: Forwards, goaltending, and if you go by last year, defence (3.49 GA/G)
The strategy
Shoot, shoot, shoot. Test goalies and defence's weakness with the other part of hockey (aka, playing the puck) early and often. Don't get sucked into a fight – it's their only advantage and they know it.
The momentum
0 playoff wins vs. 0 playoff wins – a toss up. Leafs and Habs is always a toss up (recently).
The relevant
1) RDS "Zone de Match" – not ready
2) Tobalev's Game Reviews – very ready
The irrelevant
1) Pat Hickey's bland follow-up to his enticing title: "Price the fly in ointment"
2) Everything Brian Burke says
Quote for the day
(Not quite Jose Mourinho, but a nice polite slap in the face from Gainey)
On dismissing the genius' plan:
"It's a little out of character as to where the NHL is going," Gainey said. "But hockey is a tough sport. Hockey is a physical sport."(Source)
Monday, September 21, 2009
Canadiens Season Preview:
Prospects Up Front
While I don't have the data, the time or the energy to continue reviewing each player down the Canadiens depth chart to the same extent as the roster players, I thought it would at least be useful to list who's next in line and add some thoughts and useful info for those that are interested.
I'll begin at the top, closest to the NHL and then proceed down the lineup. I should note that I am keeping those players who have no chance of playing in Montreal this season whatsoever in a separate pile for now – even though they mostly represent our top futures among the forwards.
Potential call-ups
1) Ben Maxwell
First in line for a call up seem to be Ben Maxwell. Personally, I'm not sure what to make of this player. From junior to the AHL, he certainly hasn't shown a desire or ability to dominate the play. And those who say he's big must certainly mean big relative to the Canadiens smallest players, since his height is a mere 6' and his weight must be below league average.
Either someone at Hockey's Future is really high on Maxwell (yet unable to express it in their writing) or the Canadiens are starting to scrape the barrel with prospects, because he's listed as the #2 prospect in the entire organization.
At best, I think Maxwell could be a solid second liner one day provided he can gel with a talent on the wing. For this season, I don't think he'll be given the chance to gel with anyone in the NHL. But he'd do well to think about that in the AHL – especially if Pacioretty is the guy.
2) Mathieu Darche
Second in line for a call up in my opinion will be Mathieu Darche. With the team as it is, Darche looks like a really smart signing from Gainey and BriseBois. It provides the team a player that can be brought up with likely waiver clearance that not only has NHL experience, but also in playing the commuter role.
At 33, the former McGill Redman is probably nearing the end of his NHL road; and one would think that his production will decline given time. Even so, Darche, if recalled, would give a credible two-way game on the fourth line (maybe even third) with the potential for a goal here and there.
Even without a call up, Darche's value on the Redmen alum team (oops, I mean Bulldogs) will be tangible. He knows the coaches, he has NHL stries to tell and he has pursued a career with some success while pushing through adversity. In short, he has character.
3) Ryan White
I've been noticing subtel name dropping going on quite a bit from coach Jacques. While he has nice things to say about almost everyone at this point, it seems like Ryan White has been singled out for some special praise.
Though he's coming from a long way back (see rough season in Hamilton), Ryan actually looks to me like a better bet than Maxwell. In fact, it looks to me like he's been sold short quite a bit along the way. For on thing, he has better WHL numbers than the supposedly visionary Maxwell. For another, at the same height his frame isn't just projectable to 200 lbs, it already carries that many – he's already bigger. The best quote to describe is this one, I thought, as it explains how people don't expect much going in, but somehow (without explanation) he impresses:
I don't expect Ryan to make the team right away, because his Hamilton numbers do lead to questions. However, if he starts well on the farm he could be an option come mid-winter.
4) Mikael Johansson
A Swede drafted by the Wings must be worth taking a chance on. He certainly has some attributes that make him an interesting prospect. However, in between his drafting and his signing in Montreal 6 years later, the Wings were right to note a lack of meteoric progress. That's why I have to believe that this season has been bookmarked as a trial for Mikael in the North American game, because Niklas Sundstrom II is not a player the Habs need just now.
Nonetheless, his talent and production in Sweden do count for something and put him higher on the list than the next tier of borderline talent. Because of his size, if and when he makes it to the NHL could well depend on who in the current lineup needs to be replaced. Though he might fit on a line with Latendresse and Cammalleri, it's harder to imagine him getting the call to centre Laarque and Moen.
5) Tom Pyatt
If you remember one thing about Tom Pyatt, remember this: he played for Team Canada twice, winning 2 gold medals.
That alone isn't that meaningful, but it does mean someone somewhere thinks he has something to offer, and not only that, he can deliver on the expectation with wins. Usually a Habs prospect plays in the WJC and we go gaga for years after (see Price, Carey), so his inconspicuous arrival is funny in that way. Perhaps it shows the kind of player he is, he did after all win the OHL's "Lady Byng" in 2007.
Hockey's future describes his talent:
That quote, together with his CV makes him stand out among our also rans. I don't expect many NHL games from Pyatt, but get the feeling that if he were called up, he'd be capable.
6) Brock Trotter
We're getting near the niche players now, but Brock is not one of them. By all accounts, Brock is a hard worker, plays hard and can adapt to many situations. He would be an ideal call up if not for being such a small guy – though I wouldn't flinch at adding another 5'10" player, I think the tolerance of more conventional pundits (and I imagine coaches) has been tested already.
That said, Brock isn't really banging down the door to the NHL either, nor do I expect him to. His 2 seasons in the AHL now have been OK, but he has also allowed himself to be overtaken in the depth chart. I expect this undrafted player may have to get used to that again this season.
7) David Desharnais
As I listened to fan game reviews yesterday, I'd have thought that David Desharnais was the next coming of Martin St Louis. But you know what, it doesn't really add up for me. While I'm sure he must have oodles of talent to score so many point in junior, it remains that he only actually scored 24 goals in the AHL.
While you have to credit his perseverance, the drop in production a AHL level from prolific to adequate doesn't raise the right flags for the NHL evaluators. Still, you never know – a rare chance taken could lead to great things – I'm just not betting on it today.
8) Andrew Conboy
Notorious for making the AHL simply because he got booted out of the NCAA. Not a great start, unless that is, you're hoping to be an intimidator at the NHL level.
At this point in his career, I don't think Andrew could really be aspiring to be much else, do you? His numbers when he made the jump to college certainly took most hope of the power moniker being attached to forward in his case. Still, his 9 goals in 14 playoff games in 2007-08 for Omaha are the one beacon of light here.
9) Mike Glumac
Career AHLer, I'm afraid. Still, is a useful player to have in Hamilton for his AHL prowess alone. And, should all 8 of these guys and more go down with flu or something, wouldn't be a disaster in the NHL.
10) Ryan Russell
The original Tom Pyatt. His progression is steady in the minor pro ranks, but you have to wonder where the progression is leading him. At this point, he looks far more a future Mike Glumac than he does a future Canadien. However, because of the nature of the 4th line in the NHL, his combination of skating, hard work and AHL hands could make him an able stand in.
11) Eric Neilson
No player has gone more out of his way to make an impression this fall in camp than Neilson. With the Canadiens, though, his sole purpose would be to fight. And while Gainey and co. seem to be wavering over how they feel about fighting, the fact that Laraque is still around spells no call up for Neilson. Should that change, then he'd have a lifeline.
12) Olivier Fortier
In my opinion, Fortier has no chance of playing an NHL game whatsoever this season. Though he won the Guy Carbonneau trophy, he's no Carbonneau yet. For one thing, Carbonneau had NHL calibre scoring and skating potential at junior level. His conversion to defensive specialist was abetted by these facets of his game. For Fortier, he's already gone down that route in junior, which is a red flag for me (see career, Chipchura).
What's more, his defensive game hasn't been tested against anyone other than what amounts to forwards from the weakest league in Canada. Hamilton will have to be a testing/training ground for him. It wouldn't hurt if he turned in some key offensive contributions along the way to make him look more than a next-generation Metropolit.
13) Dany Masse
Missing camp is a killer for Masse, and I'm sure he knows it. His evaluation, and thus promotion prospects, have been put on hold for now. And that goes for me too – since it's hard to judge how an overage junior on a league best team will fare against better players and goalies in both the AHL and NHL.
14) JT Wyman
Almost off the books, I'm sure. Wyman may once have been a prospect, he's now AHL filler. He should go the way of Duncan Milroy and Jonathan Ferland by the end of this season barring what would need to be a miracle turnaround and injection of talent.
Not at camp
1) Andreas Engqvist
NHL ready, but contractually tied, I'd keep an eye on Andreas' stats in Sweden if you want to get a look into a player that should figure in the Canadiens plans within a year or two.
2) Danny Kristo
From the sounds of it, Kristo has the offensive skills and speed to play in the NHL. The only things stopping him at the moment are a commitment to his NCAA club North Dakota and a few late signings in Montreal to fill the roster.
3) Steve Quailer
Qualier, to me, is the unheralded Canadiens draft pick. Good numbers in the USHL, followed by a decent start as a rookie at Northeastern have jumped Qualier into my sights, and I'm sure those of the team brass. If Latendresse doesn't pan out as a power forward, Qualier is the next one in line to try to take the mantle.
4) Louis Leblanc
Hard not to be impressed with Louis' career. I'm sure the coverage he's received already, and the coverage his Harvard career will get means I can forego a big preview here. I'll say this, if Plekanec still looks like a third liner next spring, then Louis might be having some talks about how far he wants to take his university education.
5) Alexander Avtsyn
A great draft pick with a lot of points in junior. He's still got a lot to prove at his next level to show he can ever play for the Habs, let alone be mentioned in the same breath as Ovechkin.
6) Joonas Nattinen
Another big centre who could get some career advice next spring depending on how the year goes for everyone. His career could go anywhere from here, so let's just sit back and cross our fingers.
7) Maxim Trunev
Timmins doesn't exactly have a 100% record, but some of his punts have come off (Mark Streit, Halak). To play this season again with Severstal Cherepovets, he is listed as a player to watch in the KHL by Hockey's Future.
8) Gabriel Dumont
The last player I will go out on a limb to note is Gabriel Dumont. He's already been demoted back to junior from the Canadiens camps. Talked up as a future Talbot/Lapierre type player, this season it will be critical for him to succeed on the Voltigeurs squad with a lesser cast. I think that if he does that, there will be no doubt about him reaching Montreal one day.
I'll begin at the top, closest to the NHL and then proceed down the lineup. I should note that I am keeping those players who have no chance of playing in Montreal this season whatsoever in a separate pile for now – even though they mostly represent our top futures among the forwards.
Potential call-ups
1) Ben Maxwell
First in line for a call up seem to be Ben Maxwell. Personally, I'm not sure what to make of this player. From junior to the AHL, he certainly hasn't shown a desire or ability to dominate the play. And those who say he's big must certainly mean big relative to the Canadiens smallest players, since his height is a mere 6' and his weight must be below league average.
Either someone at Hockey's Future is really high on Maxwell (yet unable to express it in their writing) or the Canadiens are starting to scrape the barrel with prospects, because he's listed as the #2 prospect in the entire organization.
At best, I think Maxwell could be a solid second liner one day provided he can gel with a talent on the wing. For this season, I don't think he'll be given the chance to gel with anyone in the NHL. But he'd do well to think about that in the AHL – especially if Pacioretty is the guy.
2) Mathieu Darche
Second in line for a call up in my opinion will be Mathieu Darche. With the team as it is, Darche looks like a really smart signing from Gainey and BriseBois. It provides the team a player that can be brought up with likely waiver clearance that not only has NHL experience, but also in playing the commuter role.
At 33, the former McGill Redman is probably nearing the end of his NHL road; and one would think that his production will decline given time. Even so, Darche, if recalled, would give a credible two-way game on the fourth line (maybe even third) with the potential for a goal here and there.
Even without a call up, Darche's value on the Redmen alum team (oops, I mean Bulldogs) will be tangible. He knows the coaches, he has NHL stries to tell and he has pursued a career with some success while pushing through adversity. In short, he has character.
3) Ryan White
I've been noticing subtel name dropping going on quite a bit from coach Jacques. While he has nice things to say about almost everyone at this point, it seems like Ryan White has been singled out for some special praise.
Though he's coming from a long way back (see rough season in Hamilton), Ryan actually looks to me like a better bet than Maxwell. In fact, it looks to me like he's been sold short quite a bit along the way. For on thing, he has better WHL numbers than the supposedly visionary Maxwell. For another, at the same height his frame isn't just projectable to 200 lbs, it already carries that many – he's already bigger. The best quote to describe is this one, I thought, as it explains how people don't expect much going in, but somehow (without explanation) he impresses:
"He’s not a great physical specimen, he’s not necessarily in great physical condition, but when we put him on the ice, he does nothing but win battles,” said Hitmen GM and head coach Kelly Kisio.
I don't expect Ryan to make the team right away, because his Hamilton numbers do lead to questions. However, if he starts well on the farm he could be an option come mid-winter.
4) Mikael Johansson
A Swede drafted by the Wings must be worth taking a chance on. He certainly has some attributes that make him an interesting prospect. However, in between his drafting and his signing in Montreal 6 years later, the Wings were right to note a lack of meteoric progress. That's why I have to believe that this season has been bookmarked as a trial for Mikael in the North American game, because Niklas Sundstrom II is not a player the Habs need just now.
Nonetheless, his talent and production in Sweden do count for something and put him higher on the list than the next tier of borderline talent. Because of his size, if and when he makes it to the NHL could well depend on who in the current lineup needs to be replaced. Though he might fit on a line with Latendresse and Cammalleri, it's harder to imagine him getting the call to centre Laarque and Moen.
5) Tom Pyatt
If you remember one thing about Tom Pyatt, remember this: he played for Team Canada twice, winning 2 gold medals.
That alone isn't that meaningful, but it does mean someone somewhere thinks he has something to offer, and not only that, he can deliver on the expectation with wins. Usually a Habs prospect plays in the WJC and we go gaga for years after (see Price, Carey), so his inconspicuous arrival is funny in that way. Perhaps it shows the kind of player he is, he did after all win the OHL's "Lady Byng" in 2007.
Hockey's future describes his talent:
Heart and soul player with good offensive instincts and good hands. Can play both ways, but his size and strength has thus far made for a difficult adjustment to professional play.
That quote, together with his CV makes him stand out among our also rans. I don't expect many NHL games from Pyatt, but get the feeling that if he were called up, he'd be capable.
6) Brock Trotter
We're getting near the niche players now, but Brock is not one of them. By all accounts, Brock is a hard worker, plays hard and can adapt to many situations. He would be an ideal call up if not for being such a small guy – though I wouldn't flinch at adding another 5'10" player, I think the tolerance of more conventional pundits (and I imagine coaches) has been tested already.
That said, Brock isn't really banging down the door to the NHL either, nor do I expect him to. His 2 seasons in the AHL now have been OK, but he has also allowed himself to be overtaken in the depth chart. I expect this undrafted player may have to get used to that again this season.
7) David Desharnais
As I listened to fan game reviews yesterday, I'd have thought that David Desharnais was the next coming of Martin St Louis. But you know what, it doesn't really add up for me. While I'm sure he must have oodles of talent to score so many point in junior, it remains that he only actually scored 24 goals in the AHL.
While you have to credit his perseverance, the drop in production a AHL level from prolific to adequate doesn't raise the right flags for the NHL evaluators. Still, you never know – a rare chance taken could lead to great things – I'm just not betting on it today.
8) Andrew Conboy
Notorious for making the AHL simply because he got booted out of the NCAA. Not a great start, unless that is, you're hoping to be an intimidator at the NHL level.
At this point in his career, I don't think Andrew could really be aspiring to be much else, do you? His numbers when he made the jump to college certainly took most hope of the power moniker being attached to forward in his case. Still, his 9 goals in 14 playoff games in 2007-08 for Omaha are the one beacon of light here.
9) Mike Glumac
Career AHLer, I'm afraid. Still, is a useful player to have in Hamilton for his AHL prowess alone. And, should all 8 of these guys and more go down with flu or something, wouldn't be a disaster in the NHL.
10) Ryan Russell
The original Tom Pyatt. His progression is steady in the minor pro ranks, but you have to wonder where the progression is leading him. At this point, he looks far more a future Mike Glumac than he does a future Canadien. However, because of the nature of the 4th line in the NHL, his combination of skating, hard work and AHL hands could make him an able stand in.
11) Eric Neilson
No player has gone more out of his way to make an impression this fall in camp than Neilson. With the Canadiens, though, his sole purpose would be to fight. And while Gainey and co. seem to be wavering over how they feel about fighting, the fact that Laraque is still around spells no call up for Neilson. Should that change, then he'd have a lifeline.
12) Olivier Fortier
In my opinion, Fortier has no chance of playing an NHL game whatsoever this season. Though he won the Guy Carbonneau trophy, he's no Carbonneau yet. For one thing, Carbonneau had NHL calibre scoring and skating potential at junior level. His conversion to defensive specialist was abetted by these facets of his game. For Fortier, he's already gone down that route in junior, which is a red flag for me (see career, Chipchura).
What's more, his defensive game hasn't been tested against anyone other than what amounts to forwards from the weakest league in Canada. Hamilton will have to be a testing/training ground for him. It wouldn't hurt if he turned in some key offensive contributions along the way to make him look more than a next-generation Metropolit.
13) Dany Masse
Missing camp is a killer for Masse, and I'm sure he knows it. His evaluation, and thus promotion prospects, have been put on hold for now. And that goes for me too – since it's hard to judge how an overage junior on a league best team will fare against better players and goalies in both the AHL and NHL.
14) JT Wyman
Almost off the books, I'm sure. Wyman may once have been a prospect, he's now AHL filler. He should go the way of Duncan Milroy and Jonathan Ferland by the end of this season barring what would need to be a miracle turnaround and injection of talent.
Not at camp
1) Andreas Engqvist
NHL ready, but contractually tied, I'd keep an eye on Andreas' stats in Sweden if you want to get a look into a player that should figure in the Canadiens plans within a year or two.
2) Danny Kristo
From the sounds of it, Kristo has the offensive skills and speed to play in the NHL. The only things stopping him at the moment are a commitment to his NCAA club North Dakota and a few late signings in Montreal to fill the roster.
3) Steve Quailer
Qualier, to me, is the unheralded Canadiens draft pick. Good numbers in the USHL, followed by a decent start as a rookie at Northeastern have jumped Qualier into my sights, and I'm sure those of the team brass. If Latendresse doesn't pan out as a power forward, Qualier is the next one in line to try to take the mantle.
4) Louis Leblanc
Hard not to be impressed with Louis' career. I'm sure the coverage he's received already, and the coverage his Harvard career will get means I can forego a big preview here. I'll say this, if Plekanec still looks like a third liner next spring, then Louis might be having some talks about how far he wants to take his university education.
5) Alexander Avtsyn
A great draft pick with a lot of points in junior. He's still got a lot to prove at his next level to show he can ever play for the Habs, let alone be mentioned in the same breath as Ovechkin.
6) Joonas Nattinen
Another big centre who could get some career advice next spring depending on how the year goes for everyone. His career could go anywhere from here, so let's just sit back and cross our fingers.
7) Maxim Trunev
"Our Euro scouts describe him as a combination of the two Kostitsyn brothers,” Timmins explained. “He was the MVP of the Mac’s midget tournament earlier this year in Calgary and he’s one of the youngest players in the draft.”
Timmins doesn't exactly have a 100% record, but some of his punts have come off (Mark Streit, Halak). To play this season again with Severstal Cherepovets, he is listed as a player to watch in the KHL by Hockey's Future.
8) Gabriel Dumont
The last player I will go out on a limb to note is Gabriel Dumont. He's already been demoted back to junior from the Canadiens camps. Talked up as a future Talbot/Lapierre type player, this season it will be critical for him to succeed on the Voltigeurs squad with a lesser cast. I think that if he does that, there will be no doubt about him reaching Montreal one day.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Canadiens Season Preview:
Second Line Offense
Next up, here is the preview of the Canadiens second line:
Latendresse – Plekanec – Cammalleri
Tomas Plekanec
Legend
Stats notes
Had I written this report on Plekanec in either of the seasons previous to this one, it's fair to say it would have been glowing. Though last season was disappointing, the numbers Tomas put up still tell the tale of what kind of player he is and can be:
1) His CORSI number was high relative to his peers
Yes Plekanec had a decline in numbers, but what his Corsi shows me is what I'd read from his play – that actually his play varies little in goalscoring slump or spree. Relative to the team, Tomas was actually a player the Canadiens could count on last season to tip the play (if not goals) in their favour. Team chance differential was 5.2 shots a game more in their favour for the minutes Plekanec was on the ice than not. What that meant in real terms is that when Tomas was on, chances were just about even at both ends, when he was off the Habs were letting the other team drive.
2) 69 goals in 3 seasons – 3 20+ goal seasons
No other Habs player can boast this kind of production, or indeed consistency.
3) 19 assists last season
When The Score Forecaster asked me for a stat to sum up 2008-09 for the Habs, I chose Plekanec's 19 assists as the standout. Can you imagine any other top line centre on a line that ended up scoring 69 goals, who actually prefers passing to shooting, ending a season with 0.25 assists a game? And it really is this aberration that makes Plekanec's season look like the absolute dud that it did. Chip in another ten (which might have happened if Kovalev weren't examining his soul and Kostitsyn undertaking police interviews at the time when Tomas got hottest) and he'd be under his potential, but closer to the ballpark.
For those alarmed that we've entrusted another season of scoring duties to a fading Plekanec, pull up your boots. As the second line centre, 20 goals a season is respectable across this league. What's more less top checking against him has always been a boon for PLeks. The stats don't point to another 2007-08 really, but 20+ goals and 30-40 assists should easily be in the cards.
Tobalev on Plekanec:
Kovalev is gone, Koivu is gone and the list goes on. That means, Tomas, that it is time to step up and be a dominant player/leader on this team. Pleks is no longer a shining prospect or ‘pleasant surprise’, he is now being counted on for real – or else. After what was a hard year for the Czech, he must come into this season with a positive, winning attitude. I am tired of seeing a defeated man after a missed shot or a hanging head following another loss. He has the speed, ability and talent to excel at this level and I think Gainey has got him plenty of help this year to bring all of that out of him.
I expect Pleks to bounce back to 07-08 form this year and forget all about last season. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he actually out-scored Gomez and was indeed our #1 centre. I don’t however, think that will happen, not this year. What I do think, though, is that he will put up 60 (give or take) points and somewhere near 20 goals. I think we’ll see a more confident player than the one that used to live in the shadows and this should translate into a much more balanced attack. I think where we will really notice him this year is on the special teams. I believe that he will be one of our top penalty-killers and I am certain that he will play a regular shift on the PP all season long.
Where Plekanec will start 2009-10: Trade rumour pages
Where Plekanec will end 2009-10: With many more fans on his side
Points: 23 G, 36 A, 59 Pts
Mike Cammalleri
Legend
Stats notes
Unlike Pleks, Mike can look at his numbers from last season and count on flattery. Here is what stands out for me:
1) Superb overall production
3.46 points per 60 minutes for Mike, 1.64 goals per 60, 3.3 goals for his team for every 60 minutes he's on the ice. These numbers stack up with the elite. His 19 powerplay goals would have surpassed the Canadiens at the half-season mark. To think his even strength.
2) Defence I can live with
There's always a trade off with offensive players like this – the expectation that a machine-gunning approach at one end will inevitably lead to lots of goals and chances at the other. The pleasant surprise is that Mike might have learned to tame that in Calgary. He managed to allow less than the average chances slip by with his linemates and even though he was playing in front of the for-once porous Kiprusoff (0.903's not a Vezina submission anymore), he was in the average at GA when on the ice.
3) Similarity between CGY 08-09 and LA 06-07
All this "Can he play without Iginla?" is ridiculous considering he has two 80 point seasons and two 30+ goal seasons in 3 years. His 2008-09 campaign answered the critics for 2006-07, and proved he can be a near 1.5 G/60 type guy. Maybe it's Iginla who should be worrying?
An offensive player through and through, who we hope might have learned something from a year in Sutterton. This year will tell if he's a year-on, year-off type player, and will probably see him settling to the production zone he'll keep up for these prime years. A look further back in his history will show that 19 goals is more anomalous than perhaps 39 or 34 were. Mind you, flirting with even in the +/- might also be out of the ordinary.
Tobalev on Cammalleri
Mike did well to cash out this summer as he really saved his best season for when it counted. I for one hope that he can repeat his 39-goal performance this season, but I can’t really see it happening. It seems that players’ production levels head south when they play for the Habs (Tanguay, Samsonov, Bonk, Johnson etc.) and I think I see it happening all over again. So the question is will the fans and media be happy with 35 goals? 30? My guess is no, so it all comes down to Mike. Kovalev was the perfect player for this environment as he always bounced back from criticism and boos, whereas Samsonov was the polar opposite. I predict that Mike will fall somewhere in between the two; somewhere where his play will be affected by the negativity, but not so much that he won’t score at all.
I would look for Mike to lead our team in goals and be a driving-force on the PP. Don’t expect too much in his own end, however, from the career -30 man. I could see him getting 40+ goals, but I could also see him getting below 30 as it all depends on his start and how the city warms to him. If he can create some chemistry with Gomez, Gionta, Plekanec or Kostitsyn before November 1st then he (as well as all of us) will enjoy his time in Montreal that much more.
Where Cammalleri will start 2009-10: First potential Canadiens 40-goal man in a decade
Where Cammalleri will end 2009-10: PP engine and more rounded ES player
Points: 33 G, 36 A, 69 Pts
Guillaume Latendresse
Legend
Stats notes
You could go many ways in interpreting these stats. Many numbers show clear decline, despite the progress that Gui is touted for. On the other hand, there is some stability within them too. The things to note:
1) Gui shoots straight
It's perhaps not that surprising that the skill that got him to the NHL is the one that stands out. 12.0% in an off year is not a stat I'd ever sneeze at.
2) Good production at even strength, considering
About a goal every 60 minutes of ice time is a good average to carry in you NHL career. Considering Gui's been bumped around lines a lot, not been given primo PP time and played with chance sink Kostopoulos a lot last year, then I find that encouraging. Hopefully he keeps up the pace.
3) Wonky even strength profile
As much as I'd like to think that Gui is one of the best defensive forwards on the team, the fact that I do have eyes helps me over the feeling. His profile shows us the danger of taking things out of context. Last season, Gui played at all the right times and missed the worst Price/Halak had to offer. Has it skewed the profile? Is Guillaume really 2nd best in Corsi? Perhaps the Canadiens lost all those games because he was injured? Impossible to tell for certain in a one-off experiment, but again, we do all have eyes, and sense.
As we've mentioned, 2009-10 is a big season for Latendresse. Because let's face it, another 14-16 goal campaign, while fine, certainly doesn't add to the lustre of the future 30-goal man argument. And, if it is to be 15 goals a year from here on in, then someone, somewhere is bound to surpass him, at least in terms of potential.
His shooting accuracy teamed with a new approach to shooting more should help. His defensive game and any improvement in the purpose of his hitting will make this line a very threatening one.
Tobalev on Latendresse
For some reason I am excited about Latendresse this year. Maybe it is because I see him as the best of the players from my home province, maybe it's because he is one of the longest serving Habs, or maybe it is because I actually sense a big season coming on. Whatever happens with goals and assists, Latendresse is still a player that wants to play for the Habs and generally tries pretty hard, despite some talent shortcomings.
Unfortunately for Gui, however, nothing is guaranteed. There are signs, after all that point to him not having that great of a season. His production levels have been stable for 3 years, he seems to be getting slower and he may very well get crowded out of the top-6/PP.
On the positive side, I think his new status on the team (best Quebecer) will help him, especially early in the season. Many fans and new teammates will look to him now as a leader and not just a prospect. If he can get in Martin’s good books and get himself onto a scoring line early on then I could see him there all year. If he makes the most of these chances when provided, the outlook could brighten in a hurry – I really think he could score 25 goals.
The more likely scenario, however, is that he gets bounced between the top 3 lines and into/out of the PP (thanks to injuries, slumps etc.). This will hurt his production and that is why I think he’ll likely top out at 30-35 points with most of those coming as goals.
Where Latendresse will start 2009-10: Carrying the torch for millions
Where Latendresse will end 2009-10: With a new appreciation for what he can do in this league
Points: 21 G, 24 A, 45 Pts
As a line
Just as Gomez was the point of departure for line #1, so Plekanec is pencilled in first for line #2. Cammalleri is next in, since he's a top line forward, and we opted not to put him on the "#1" line this time. Even so, Cammalleri's profile overall points to him being able to do things independently, and I think that could be a good thing for Plekanec. The difference in approach (i.e., using the puck quickly vs. holding the puck) should also suit PLeks, who's often quick to be in the right place when loose pucks appear.
Third man in to line #2 is the lucky dip. Between Sergei Kostitsyn, D'Agostini, Pacioretty and Latendresse. In the end, Guillaume's profile just stands up like a second liner. His goal rate is good and could improve, his accurate shot could be handy if Cammalleri creates masses of rebounds. Latendresse also adds a bit of size, and maybe even grit if he decides to – something the other three can't offer to the same extent. I feel it's his place to lose in the next few days.
Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier
Latendresse – Plekanec – Cammalleri
Tomas Plekanec
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | GWG | G/60 | Pts/60 | Sh | S% | PIM |
| 08-09 (MTL) | 80 | 20 | 19 | 39 | -9 | 6 | 2 | 0.87 | 1.69 | 202 | 9.9 | 54 |
| 07-08 (MTL) | 81 | 29 | 40 | 69 | +15 | 12 | 6 | 1.19 | 2.83 | 186 | 15.6 | 42 |
| 06-07 (MTL) | 81 | 20 | 27 | 47 | +10 | 5 | 1 | 0.93 | 2.18 | 150 | 13.3 | 36 |
| Even-strength profile | |
 |
|
Stats notes
Had I written this report on Plekanec in either of the seasons previous to this one, it's fair to say it would have been glowing. Though last season was disappointing, the numbers Tomas put up still tell the tale of what kind of player he is and can be:
1) His CORSI number was high relative to his peers
Yes Plekanec had a decline in numbers, but what his Corsi shows me is what I'd read from his play – that actually his play varies little in goalscoring slump or spree. Relative to the team, Tomas was actually a player the Canadiens could count on last season to tip the play (if not goals) in their favour. Team chance differential was 5.2 shots a game more in their favour for the minutes Plekanec was on the ice than not. What that meant in real terms is that when Tomas was on, chances were just about even at both ends, when he was off the Habs were letting the other team drive.
2) 69 goals in 3 seasons – 3 20+ goal seasons
No other Habs player can boast this kind of production, or indeed consistency.
3) 19 assists last season
When The Score Forecaster asked me for a stat to sum up 2008-09 for the Habs, I chose Plekanec's 19 assists as the standout. Can you imagine any other top line centre on a line that ended up scoring 69 goals, who actually prefers passing to shooting, ending a season with 0.25 assists a game? And it really is this aberration that makes Plekanec's season look like the absolute dud that it did. Chip in another ten (which might have happened if Kovalev weren't examining his soul and Kostitsyn undertaking police interviews at the time when Tomas got hottest) and he'd be under his potential, but closer to the ballpark.
For those alarmed that we've entrusted another season of scoring duties to a fading Plekanec, pull up your boots. As the second line centre, 20 goals a season is respectable across this league. What's more less top checking against him has always been a boon for PLeks. The stats don't point to another 2007-08 really, but 20+ goals and 30-40 assists should easily be in the cards.
Tobalev on Plekanec:
Kovalev is gone, Koivu is gone and the list goes on. That means, Tomas, that it is time to step up and be a dominant player/leader on this team. Pleks is no longer a shining prospect or ‘pleasant surprise’, he is now being counted on for real – or else. After what was a hard year for the Czech, he must come into this season with a positive, winning attitude. I am tired of seeing a defeated man after a missed shot or a hanging head following another loss. He has the speed, ability and talent to excel at this level and I think Gainey has got him plenty of help this year to bring all of that out of him.
I expect Pleks to bounce back to 07-08 form this year and forget all about last season. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he actually out-scored Gomez and was indeed our #1 centre. I don’t however, think that will happen, not this year. What I do think, though, is that he will put up 60 (give or take) points and somewhere near 20 goals. I think we’ll see a more confident player than the one that used to live in the shadows and this should translate into a much more balanced attack. I think where we will really notice him this year is on the special teams. I believe that he will be one of our top penalty-killers and I am certain that he will play a regular shift on the PP all season long.
Where Plekanec will start 2009-10: Trade rumour pages
Where Plekanec will end 2009-10: With many more fans on his side
Points: 23 G, 36 A, 59 Pts
Mike Cammalleri
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | GWG | G/60 | Pts/60 | Sh | S% | PIM |
| 08-09 (CGY) | 81 | 39 | 43 | 82 | -2 | 19 | 6 | 1.64 | 3.46 | 255 | 15.0 | 44 |
| 07-08 (LA) | 63 | 19 | 28 | 47 | -16 | 10 | 1 | 0.91 | 2.26 | 210 | 9.0 | 30 |
| 06-07 (LA) | 81 | 34 | 46 | 80 | +5 | 16 | 5 | 1.40 | 3.28 | 299 | 11.4 | 48 |
| Even-strength profile | |
 |
|
Stats notes
Unlike Pleks, Mike can look at his numbers from last season and count on flattery. Here is what stands out for me:
1) Superb overall production
3.46 points per 60 minutes for Mike, 1.64 goals per 60, 3.3 goals for his team for every 60 minutes he's on the ice. These numbers stack up with the elite. His 19 powerplay goals would have surpassed the Canadiens at the half-season mark. To think his even strength.
2) Defence I can live with
There's always a trade off with offensive players like this – the expectation that a machine-gunning approach at one end will inevitably lead to lots of goals and chances at the other. The pleasant surprise is that Mike might have learned to tame that in Calgary. He managed to allow less than the average chances slip by with his linemates and even though he was playing in front of the for-once porous Kiprusoff (0.903's not a Vezina submission anymore), he was in the average at GA when on the ice.
3) Similarity between CGY 08-09 and LA 06-07
All this "Can he play without Iginla?" is ridiculous considering he has two 80 point seasons and two 30+ goal seasons in 3 years. His 2008-09 campaign answered the critics for 2006-07, and proved he can be a near 1.5 G/60 type guy. Maybe it's Iginla who should be worrying?
An offensive player through and through, who we hope might have learned something from a year in Sutterton. This year will tell if he's a year-on, year-off type player, and will probably see him settling to the production zone he'll keep up for these prime years. A look further back in his history will show that 19 goals is more anomalous than perhaps 39 or 34 were. Mind you, flirting with even in the +/- might also be out of the ordinary.
Tobalev on Cammalleri
Mike did well to cash out this summer as he really saved his best season for when it counted. I for one hope that he can repeat his 39-goal performance this season, but I can’t really see it happening. It seems that players’ production levels head south when they play for the Habs (Tanguay, Samsonov, Bonk, Johnson etc.) and I think I see it happening all over again. So the question is will the fans and media be happy with 35 goals? 30? My guess is no, so it all comes down to Mike. Kovalev was the perfect player for this environment as he always bounced back from criticism and boos, whereas Samsonov was the polar opposite. I predict that Mike will fall somewhere in between the two; somewhere where his play will be affected by the negativity, but not so much that he won’t score at all.
I would look for Mike to lead our team in goals and be a driving-force on the PP. Don’t expect too much in his own end, however, from the career -30 man. I could see him getting 40+ goals, but I could also see him getting below 30 as it all depends on his start and how the city warms to him. If he can create some chemistry with Gomez, Gionta, Plekanec or Kostitsyn before November 1st then he (as well as all of us) will enjoy his time in Montreal that much more.
Where Cammalleri will start 2009-10: First potential Canadiens 40-goal man in a decade
Where Cammalleri will end 2009-10: PP engine and more rounded ES player
Points: 33 G, 36 A, 69 Pts
Guillaume Latendresse
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | GWG | G/60 | Pts/60 | Sh | S% | PIM |
| 08-09 (MTL) | 56 | 14 | 12 | 26 | +4 | 1 | 2 | 1.10 | 2.05 | 117 | 12.0 | 45 |
| 07-08 (MTL) | 73 | 16 | 11 | 27 | -2 | 2 | 3 | 1.07 | 1.81 | 116 | 13.8 | 41 |
| 06-07 (MTL) | 80 | 16 | 13 | 29 | -20 | 5 | 3 | 0.95 | 1.73 | 121 | 13.2 | 47 |
| Even-strength profile | |
|
|
Stats notes
You could go many ways in interpreting these stats. Many numbers show clear decline, despite the progress that Gui is touted for. On the other hand, there is some stability within them too. The things to note:
1) Gui shoots straight
It's perhaps not that surprising that the skill that got him to the NHL is the one that stands out. 12.0% in an off year is not a stat I'd ever sneeze at.
2) Good production at even strength, considering
About a goal every 60 minutes of ice time is a good average to carry in you NHL career. Considering Gui's been bumped around lines a lot, not been given primo PP time and played with chance sink Kostopoulos a lot last year, then I find that encouraging. Hopefully he keeps up the pace.
3) Wonky even strength profile
As much as I'd like to think that Gui is one of the best defensive forwards on the team, the fact that I do have eyes helps me over the feeling. His profile shows us the danger of taking things out of context. Last season, Gui played at all the right times and missed the worst Price/Halak had to offer. Has it skewed the profile? Is Guillaume really 2nd best in Corsi? Perhaps the Canadiens lost all those games because he was injured? Impossible to tell for certain in a one-off experiment, but again, we do all have eyes, and sense.
As we've mentioned, 2009-10 is a big season for Latendresse. Because let's face it, another 14-16 goal campaign, while fine, certainly doesn't add to the lustre of the future 30-goal man argument. And, if it is to be 15 goals a year from here on in, then someone, somewhere is bound to surpass him, at least in terms of potential.
His shooting accuracy teamed with a new approach to shooting more should help. His defensive game and any improvement in the purpose of his hitting will make this line a very threatening one.
Tobalev on Latendresse
For some reason I am excited about Latendresse this year. Maybe it is because I see him as the best of the players from my home province, maybe it's because he is one of the longest serving Habs, or maybe it is because I actually sense a big season coming on. Whatever happens with goals and assists, Latendresse is still a player that wants to play for the Habs and generally tries pretty hard, despite some talent shortcomings.
Unfortunately for Gui, however, nothing is guaranteed. There are signs, after all that point to him not having that great of a season. His production levels have been stable for 3 years, he seems to be getting slower and he may very well get crowded out of the top-6/PP.
On the positive side, I think his new status on the team (best Quebecer) will help him, especially early in the season. Many fans and new teammates will look to him now as a leader and not just a prospect. If he can get in Martin’s good books and get himself onto a scoring line early on then I could see him there all year. If he makes the most of these chances when provided, the outlook could brighten in a hurry – I really think he could score 25 goals.
The more likely scenario, however, is that he gets bounced between the top 3 lines and into/out of the PP (thanks to injuries, slumps etc.). This will hurt his production and that is why I think he’ll likely top out at 30-35 points with most of those coming as goals.
Where Latendresse will start 2009-10: Carrying the torch for millions
Where Latendresse will end 2009-10: With a new appreciation for what he can do in this league
Points: 21 G, 24 A, 45 Pts
As a line
| Line #2 | Effect O/D | |
| C – Tomas Plekanec |  |
|
| RW – Mike Cammalleri |  |
|
| LW – Guillaume Latendresse | |
|
Just as Gomez was the point of departure for line #1, so Plekanec is pencilled in first for line #2. Cammalleri is next in, since he's a top line forward, and we opted not to put him on the "#1" line this time. Even so, Cammalleri's profile overall points to him being able to do things independently, and I think that could be a good thing for Plekanec. The difference in approach (i.e., using the puck quickly vs. holding the puck) should also suit PLeks, who's often quick to be in the right place when loose pucks appear.
Third man in to line #2 is the lucky dip. Between Sergei Kostitsyn, D'Agostini, Pacioretty and Latendresse. In the end, Guillaume's profile just stands up like a second liner. His goal rate is good and could improve, his accurate shot could be handy if Cammalleri creates masses of rebounds. Latendresse also adds a bit of size, and maybe even grit if he decides to – something the other three can't offer to the same extent. I feel it's his place to lose in the next few days.
Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier
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