Canadiens Season Preview Remaining Goalies And Prospects

The more astute among you will have noticed I got overexcited and missed any discussion of outgoing goalie Marc Denis – such is the impression he made on me last season. Well, NHL stats-wise it would have been a waste of time. And now I'm at the end of the line here, I haven't the energy to spend on an AHL journeyman no longer with the team. Today is my last installment of the preview and it encompasses NHL/AHL player Sanford, next in line Desjardins and the goaltending prospects.

Sanford et al


Curtis Sanford

NHL Season	GP	Starts	Pulled	Min	W	L	OTL	GAA	Save %	SO
08-09 (VAN)	19	15	3	973	7	8	0	2.59	0.906	1
07-08 (VAN)	16	9	2	679	4	3	1	2.83	0.898	0
06-07 (STL)	31	26	5	1492	8	12	5	3.18	0.888	0

Personal save profile
	Average save percentage at even strength Made slightly more saves than expected at even strength Was above average on the PK Played behind a well above average defence at ES and on the PK

Legend


Stats notes
I don't know much of Sanford beyond what you see here, so this should be interesting. Here's what I think:

1) As good as his defence
Last season, Curtis put up some nice numbers – better than Price's even. But do not be fooled, that whole right side of the pie shows that he got some very nice defensive help from his teammates. The 0.910 expected save%, particularly, is a very nice starting point to be giving a goalie – it leaves little to do to crack the league top 30 list. By the same token, his stats in St. Louis were poor on a poor team – no heroics then.

2) Don't expect full starts
Last season he played in 19, but only started 15. In 3 of those 15 starts he was pulled. Similarly, the previous year, there were 7 complete games with 9 incomplete ones. That's 19 complete games in 2 years (and 16 partial ones). I wouldn't expect anything different this year, health of the current team permitting. An able back-up to be sure, but not one seen as a starter in this NHL anymore.


3) Settling in
After briefly trying to crack the NHL as starter, and then as top-2 man in St. Louis, it seems that Curtis may be settling now into that third man role where he can thrive. More occasional starts with more regular work on the farm have translated into better stats in both locales.


Topham on Sanford:

When I heard we had signed Curtis Sanford, my mind immediately went back to the pitiful St Louis Blues. The first I heard of Sanford was when he wrested the starting job form Patrick Lalime in St Louis back in 2005. That season was effectively his NHL rookie season and he put up some good numbers. But ever wanting to fit the mould of future Habs goalie, the next year when given his golden ticket, he stumbled (that'd be that 0.888 season you can see above). From that moment it seems the league has said thanks but no thanks to Curtis Sanford as starter or even backup starter.

But since then, he's also pulled his game together. 2 seasons in the NHL were spotted with fewer games but improvement. Parts of a season in the AHL were marked by absolute dominance. Consider then, when Gainey was looking for a goalie to help Cedrick Desjardins and possibly stand in for some minutes if an NHL guy went down, that Curtis Sanford was not such a daft choice.

I expect this season will be a mirror of Marc Denis' season last year, with pretty much the entirety of a season spent in Hamilton, shining for the most part, with a brief if any call-up to the Bell Centre. His experience of being part of the league winning, and always ambitious, Moose franchise should aid and abet the morale in Hamilton – a reminder that though dreams lie in the NHL, winning in the AHL while being paid hundreds thousands to do it ain't half bad. Any mentoring of Cedrick Desjardins at this point would be a big bonus, because the Habs are staring down the barrel of a gun with goalie prospects at the moment. I think over the season he will be asked to pass the torch to Desjardins, something that may spell the end to another brief veteran goaltending career in Hamilton.


Where Sanford will start 2009-10: Starting goalie in Hamilton

Where Sanford will end 2009-10: Co-starter in Hamilton

Key (NHL) stats: 5 GP, 0 GS



Potential call-up

1) Cedrick Desjardins

Just who is this Cedrick Desjardins that we are meant to be trusting with our fortunes if disaster strikes? You can be excused for not knowing the answer.

Cedrick is an undrafted youngster who has taken the road less travelled to get to where he is in the depth chart. From very very humble beginnings as a 1-game winner (20 starts) on the 11-game, Crosby-targeting, tanking specialists that were the 2002-03 Rimouski Oceanic he steadily improved as a goalie in junior. 2003-04 was OK, but it was 2004-05 and 2005-06 where he shone. In 04-05, he backstopped a Crosby led team to the Memorial Cup finals (though they lost to a stacked Knights squad). The next year, with equally impressive stats for the Q, he took Quebec (with Radulov and Esposito) to the Memorial Cup finals again – this time to win.

From there, he had a training camp invite but nothing more from the Chicago Blackhawks. And then, though the stingy Montreal media would never give Gainey credit for it, the French Canadian (NB, to be exact) goalie was scoped by the Habs organization. With Halak and Danis in the picture, Cedrick was to offer depth, and that first season he did (in Cincinnati), where once again his numbers improved. The following year, 2007-08, he was to be called up to the Bulldogs for an extended stint and performed very well (0.909 in the AHL). he'd end the season in style by starring in the Cyclones' capture of the Kelly Cup – a third championship final in four years. That brings us to last season where Desjardins was chief deputy to Marc Denis all season long. In 30 games, he once again improved his numbers (0.919 and 2.55 this time) to mark another season of progress. In the end, it was probably his strong play that sealed Denis' fate and paved the way for a Sanford/Desjardins tandem.

I note that he is a possible call up because his numbers in the AHL so far are very credible. We've seen him in camp against NHLers now too, and he fared well enough to keep that credibility. With other young goalies at the top level, it doesn't seem like Desjardins is here for the Canadiens. However, if he takes another step forward, he could well make things interesting by the trade deadline – making himself, Sanford or one of the NHLers bait for organizational improvements.


2) [Fill in blank]

If 3 goalies sustain injuries, Gainey will need to move as there is nothing looking anything like an NHL player beyond Desjardins in this system.

Loic Lacasse might have had a place here, but the 2004 draft pick, who put up some nice stats in his first stint in Hamilton showed the patience of Jaroslav Halak's agent and has committed careericide in the first degree by signing a contract with the NAHL. Oh, heady days.



The next wave

1) Robert Mayer

Though born in Czech, he represents the Swiss, and with a name like Mayer it's not hard to fathom why. The Canadiens signed Mayer during the summer of 2008 after his first season with the Saint John Sea Dogs of the QMJHL. His 2008-09 was once again spent in new Brunswick, and while his personal stats took a leap in the right direction, the Sea Dogs he was leading were left disappointed in their quest for silverware.

It says the Canadiens assigned Mayer to Hamilton after his sojourn in Montreal for training camp, but that was only temporary. He should be the top goalie the next level down – a replacement for the departed Lacasse. Hopefully he'll get the lion's share of the work in Cincy, so he can take the next step in development and provide us with a bit of proper depth at this position.


2) Jason Missiaen

Perhaps in the future we will get a chance to witness Missiaen skating up to "The Monster" after a sweep of Toronto in the playoffs (OK, sweep of the Marlies?). The sooner the 6'3" Swede is made to look like a dwarf and not a troll, the better – then we can put that stupid nickname to bed.

As for Missiaen, there isn't really much more to say than that he is very big (6'8" by most accounts). Drafted by the Canadiens in 2008, probably on a bit of a flyer, he is still playing junior hockey this season. After taking what seemed to be backwards steps with the Petes last year, Missiaen seems to have started well this season as their new full-time starter. As with Mayer, any improvement will be welcomed. But it's hard to see him unseating Price, Halak or even Desjardins at any point in the future. Still, where there's a limb, there's a way – and he has lots of limb, his pads must make Giguere's look like toys.


3) Petteri Simila

The Canadiens scouting of goalies seems to have become a little lax, wouldn't you say? I mean, I know it's good we have two guys under the age of 25 in the NHL. And that if all goes well the goaltending position could be sealed and delivered for a decade and a half; but perhaps one criteria on top of height?

Petteri Simila is the midge of the Canadiens junior goalies, a mere 78" tall. What we do know about him is that he was drafted with the very last pick in the NHL draft (basically a free agent signing if you ask me). Someone somewhere must have caught one of the Karpat back-up's games and decided he was worth a look. Still, let's not assume too much, the scout didn't bother to mention it until the draft was basically over.

I look at Simila as a try-out really, no different than Desjardins or Mayer – the fact he was drafted being irrelevant. This season's try-out for the big man will be in the Niagara Falls area with the IceDogs. Though he'll wear the logo which enshrines Don Cherry's pitbull for the year, we can rest assured that the luminary himself won't be interfering with our prospect, since he sold the team a while back.

Simila has an uphill battle to prove himself to IceDogs brass, let alone Habs brass. The season has started with him in the back-up role. If he can wriggle into starting position and do something of note, another camp might be in his future. Then again, Canadiens prospects are so thin on the ground at his position merely being able to tie skates by next summer might be enough.

Canadiens Season Preview NHL Goalies

For those that have been tiring at the previews over the last week (I know, defensive defencemen, yawn), this should perk you up. The goaltender preview. You know we've been hard on Price and aren't afraid to point out his blemishes. I know some of you don't like it. Should be a good mix for some discussion.

Price - Halak


Carey Price

NHL Season	GP	Starts	Pulled	Min	W	L	OTL	GAA	Save %	SO
08-09 (MTL)	52	49	1	3036	23	16	10	2.83	0.905	1
07-08 (MTL)	41	40	2	2413	24	12	3	2.56	0.920	3

Personal save profile
	Slightly above average save percentage at even strength Made more saves than expected (based on shot quality) at even strength Was among league worst at making saves on PK (worst among starters)

Legend


Stats notes
Carey had a few missteps in the second half of last season and it shows in his statistics. While even I would have bought the thoroughbred line in January, but was seriously sceptical of being told I shouldn't believe anything but in Gainey's patronising post-season talk. While I have covered Carey's season in much more depth elsewhere (Are These Thoroughbred Stats?), I'll do the highlights from the stats here today:

1) Very sound at even strength
One thing you'll notice from the special goalie pie is that Carey Price has a very good save percentage at even strength. Playing behind a defence that is letting up shots that should go in 9.5% of the time, he makes sure that only 8.6% go in. From watching his play, I can tell you this is what I like. When the play is at normal tempo, without any added complications, he covers the angles and makes more saves than an average goalie would.

2) Bad last season when shooters had time
I think the PK save percentage is quite an interesting one. While the stats sites haven't run the same expected save % numbers on these stats, I have tried to paint the picture myself. For Carey, the picture isn't good. Price was pretty much the worst goalie in the league on the PK last year. And while apologists tell us the defence let him down, that bright green segment tells us that compared to most goalies in the league, Carey was actually getting decent defence, even above average at times. My interpretation of this is that Price hasn't adapted his game to the PK yet. While at ES, his amazing positioning and movement is more than enough, on the PK it isn't. On the PP shooters enjoy more time and free positions, they can set their feet for shots and even pick corners without the pressure of defence. Goaltending against this kind of attack is typically difficult, but can be improved with quickness and reflexes. Carey's 0.803 save percentage tells us he's not up to the standard of his peers in those skills yet.

3) Defence never as good as it could have been
When you see a 0.920 save percentage on a first place team, you shouldn't then glance left and see 2.56 GAA. When a team has goalies that make more than the expected rate of saves, it seems wasteful to then turn around and allow more than the average amount of shots. Apart from the help he got on the PK (and decided not to take), Carey hasn't been as insulated as you might hope a very young goalie would be. This is not an excuse, merely an observation. I would be remiss not to also note that many do manage more with less.


Carey's career has taken in more highlights and lowlights in 2 years than many veteran goalies have had in a career. From great to merely good, we must hope he turns the trending of his progression around, because even sticking on good at this point may not be enough.


Tobalev on Price:

Carey started the year well, but injuries, All-Star festivities, the Centennial, the expectation to win and a whole bunch of other issues seemed to affect him in a very negative way. His problems (even at his best times) have always been his inability to rebound from a bad goal (or stint) and his glove hand - these two areas were a huge concern in pretty much every game he played from January onwards. I think that last winter was when we, the team and even Carey may have realised that he was no Dryden or Roy; no, for now, he was average and he'd have to work to progress. The defence surely let him down on numerous occasions (as did the offence), but at the end of the day he simply wasn’t good enough (or as good as he had been) to take us anywhere; he was one of the main reasons we almost missed the playoffs.

The one good thing heading into this year is that Carey will get much more support from his teammates on a nightly basis. I think that the general consensus is that we have a better coach, a better system and better defencemen. All of this may turn Carey’s off nights (or weeks or months) into something that we can work with. I am not too concerned with his numbers, except for one – wins. If he can find a way to let in one less goal than the other keeper and find ways to bounce back from rough goals/outings, then he may indeed be here for the long haul. I am afraid, however, that if he picks up where he left off last year then we will eventually have some choices to make. I for one am not sold on him being the centerpiece of the next two decades for this team, and he’ll have to play quite well to change this mind. That said, all I want is for us to win games and for now we know we’ll have to give that a shot with Price back there.

Gainey will make sure, if healthy, Carey plays in 50-65 games (regardless of performance), so you should expect to see 25-35 wins. I predict 2 shutouts (the defence is better after all) and slightly improved numbers; 2.60 GAA and .914 Save %.


Where Price will start 2009-10: Starting goalie

Where Price will end 2009-10: Starting goalie

Key stats: 33 W, 2.60 GAA, 0.914 save%



Jaroslav Halak

NHL Season	GP	Starts	Pulled	Min	W	L	OTL	GAA	Save %	SO
08-09 (MTL)	34	33	3	1931	18	14	1	2.86	0.915	1
07-08 (MTL)	6	4	0	285	2	1	1	2.11	0.934	1
06-07 (MTL)	16	16	2	912	10	6	0	2.89	0.906	2

Personal save profile
	Above average save percentage at even strength Made more saves than expected (based on shot quality) at even strength Among league leaders at making saves on PK

Legend


Stats notes
Because there are only 2 goaltenders, this preview certainly does lend itself better to head-to-head comparisons. The debate is likely to once again rage and settle and rage and settle as to who to start in important games (it is Montreal). I can only start it off here by pointing out that Halak, last season was the better Canadiens goalie on the whole, but that really he was the better of two average goalies:

1) Very similar to price at ES
Although you'd never think it from watching them both play at ES, both Halak and Price are well above average. Halak's pie does look different, but a closer look at the numbers show that although he snuck into a higher quintile, raw save percentage and raw expected save percentage were very similar.

2) Excellent last season on the PK
If the two were all but the same at ES, PK is where their fortunes diverged. While Price was league worst, Halak flirted with the Backstroms and Lundqvists of the league with his 0.890 rate of efficiency. To extend my theory on Price, I believe that is because Halak has better reflexes and is better at improvising at this stage of his career – two skills that serve him well under bombardment.

3) Even worse defence than our man Price got
Better save percentages and worse GAA say that on average Halak did not enjoy even the level of mediocrity that Price did from his skaters. Here's the rub though, it shouldn't matter. Good goalies find ways to let in less goals overall, even if means they have to post gaudy 0.930+ save percentages. If Halak wants to grab a starting position here or elsewhere, he'll need to cut down goals against whatever his defenders decide to do.


2006-07 was an unexpected surprise. 2007-08 was tantalizing with numbers. It seems 2008-09 was just about the real Halak. If that's true what you get is a goalie who makes saves he shouldn't and from worse starting position than his more technically-sound rival. I'm not sure he's the best back up int he league, but another season of 0.915+ and you'd have to think he's close.


Tobalev on Halak
On the whole, Halak’s 2008-09 season looks pretty good - 18-14-1, 1 SO, 2.86 and 0.915 – but there were still some concerns. I seem to remember that when given the chance he never really took the bull by the horns. To be fair to him though he did have that one incredible stretch that was interrupted by the flu, an illness that likely cost him more starts and his team a deeper run into the playoffs. I guess what I am trying to say is that Jaro isn’t as good as Price-bashers make him out to be (he himself is only really average and has yet to perform for long stretches at a time), but he is better than some people make him out to be too (he would be a very desirable back-up options for most GMs). His season last year taught us that he is definitely good enough to play a lot of games and to squeak out wins, but also that he isn’t (at least not yet) an elite NHL goaltender; we are therefore batting 0/2 in that department.

I can’t see Jaro really going anywhere anytime soon, he should be in Montreal all year. A lot of people want him traded, but I don’t think our depth would allow for that, besides, he isn’t quite good enough that he’d get us very much in return. Therefore, he is best suited to playing in Montreal for now, behind Price. I believe that the starter job, however, could be up for grabs by as early as Christmas and I really believe that Halak has a shot at being that guy this time around. If (or maybe when?) Price falters, look for Jaro to start getting some consecutive starts. For now, however, he will play about once every three or four games. I fully expect his Save % to remain high and his GAA to go down to the 2.40-2.60 range (again, thanks to team etc.). If I had to bet I would say he features in 35-40 games and will likely play for about a .550 winning %. That should give him about 15-20 wins when you consider that he’ll be coming into some of those games as relief.


Where Halak will start 2009-10: Back-up

Where Halak will end 2009-10: On a charge again

Key stats: 16 W, 2.47 GAA, 0.915 Save%


While Halak was surely better than Price last season, he was frustrating to his supporters in not being able to prove that he will be better than Price. As Tobalev said, both have lots to learn, both are currently occupying the average territory in league goaltending ranks.

Perhaps not as controversial as I promised. I think I held back knowing that I'd done a bit of this work before, and that I wouldn't have the time or the inspiration to match it. For those who want to see that follow the link to the little read Carey Price Segment from last May.




Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier

Canadiens Season Preview Prospects At The Back

After days of putting out day after day of previews, wouldn't you know that the first time people start congratulating us is the same day we slip and miss a day. Perhaps not slip, but in not wanting to lose my hockey pool, I spent the time compiling my lists for that instead. Mind you, I still ended up with the most questionable goalies as I do every year.

Anyway, as the title of the post suggests, this is my look at the below NHL prospects on defence. As with the forwards, I had neither as much data or as much drive to do a full-blown analysis of each of these guys. So instead, it's just some thoughts possibly mixed with scouts' thoughts and random stats. In any case, the preview wouldn't be complete without something on Alex Henry, so here we go.


Potential call-ups

1) PK Subban

With Yannick Weber on the "NHLer" list, there's absolutely no doubt who the top prospect at the back is. PK Subban, junior star, Team Canada star, high draft pick, media darling has skills and personality to make it.

What's most exciting about PK is not his accomplishment with the indomitable Team Canada, nor his more than point-per-game from defence last year, but his personal skill set. Unlike some players who win, but you can't really put a finger on why. With PK it's easy – it's his skating. As a pretty pitiful hockey player myself, I know that being unable to keep up on skates puts me at an immediate disadvantage in nearly every situation on the ice. I can only imagine the other guys must be thinking the same, only in terms of advantage. Well, PK has that advantage in spades. He had it over most junior pretenders, and from what little I've seen, I'd say he'll have it in the NHL one day too. It seems that because he's practiced his skating through drills rather than simple reliance on game day that he can do things to make it look as though he was born with blades on his feet. You'd better watch:



With skill like that, PK can already offer a talent that puts him among the elite in the NHL. Oh, that hockey were only about skating and going forward. The reason PK is not up with the team today, and the reason that Yannick Weber has surpassed him at several different steps now is because of defence – you know, the position he purportedly plays? It remains the question at this time, perhaps the only question. But luckily defence is something that can be learned with some dedicated study. And though all his highlights display amazing rushes, you might have noticed the hole where brilliant, or even simple effective pass would normally fit for a Dman.

There's a definite place for Subban and his crazy feet in the NHL. The question for the Canadiens is whether there is a place for him on a team with Andrei Markov. And possibly Yannick Weber. If he shows he can be a defensive asset in Hamilton, the answer will be an unquestionable yes. If he can't, the onus will be on Gainey to find the team who needs the offense from the back and can afford to forgo him playing his position as others might.


2) Mathieu Carle

If PK has problems finding a place on the offensively laden blueline in Montreal, imagine 3rd in line Mathieu Carle.

Long-term it would take some moves to see a real place for Carle up on the Habs. Short term, however, he has a few aces to play in order to expedite his call up.

The first is his age. 22 now, he may be more mature and better able to see where team game outweighs individual game than some proteges. The second is his direct experience in Hamilton. As mentioned, it's not been an overwhelming success, but at the same time he has shown he can do a job for a successful team against pros.

Third, and I'm loathe to say it, but it's the fact he is Quebecois. I'm not saying that he'll be brought up just to make up numbers, but the company line has always been at equal value, we'll choose the local lad. Well, for the brief period before PK really gets any AHL experience of his own, Carle is holding at least that equal card, if not a slightly better one. What's more, we've seen this decision exercised already at camp with the first cuts, and there's no reason to think it won't hold until mid-winter.


3) Shawn Belle

I probably made more fuss than was necessary for Shawn Belle attending early skates, but I did think it showed a good attitude form him at least.

If you want to read about the best of Shawn Belle, I've done that bit already (near the bottom of the piece). What has transpired since the writing of that article, however, has led to some extra conclusions. The first is that Shawn Belle is no panacea – he would be a replacement with plenty of faults, a player who would make mistakes. The second is that he has been properly assigned to Hamilton – the players ahead of him in this depth analysis are indeed better at the moment. Finally, that for all his attitude coming early, he perhaps hasn't quite grasped how his NHL dream is slipping by. His average showing at camp has been wildly surpassed by the man we put on notice (Ryan O'Byrne).

Shawn could be a call up, but really he has to do more to impress if he wants to make it stick. Hamilton is a valuable training ground for a defender like Belle, and another season like his last, on a winning team, could mean knocks on Gainey's door about a depth defenceman in a trade, if not in Montreal.


4) Andre Benoit

Andre's back with the Bulldogs after tow very successful seasons in Europe. But what stands in Andre's way is the same solid group of defenders that stand in every other offensive Dman's path.

What seems to be clear from his statistics and reports is that Benoit could step in and do the job. However, depth, salaries and midsets being what they are, it would take a lot of bodies going down, specifically from the PP rearguard for this to ever happen for Benoit. Still, he's 4th in line here because of his stellar junior record, his experience in the AHL and his clear determination to give this NHL thing another go. Don't look for him in many games, but you never know, one or two could be in the cards.


5) Alex Henry

Alex Henry, my goodness. I did have some stats on him, but not many. I can tell you that during his 2 game stint last season with the Habs he managed to do so poorly with his 10 minutes that he comes at the bottom of nearly every category we looked at in the league. So badly that one stats site I was looking at found that Mathieu Schneider's stats were being dragged through the dirt by virtue of him having worn the same number as Henry (a bit of computer confusion).

So why even mention him? Well for one thing, he's playing in Hamilton's top 6, making him call-up material. For another, he does quite well down there. While it's not time to write Henry off altogether (he is massive), it seems that his skating and awareness might be more AHL level at this point in time.


6) Michael Busto

Finally, Michael Busto – that other guy from the Higgins trade. How does 6 years in the WHL strike you? I'm not sure I've ever seen that. Sure by the time he left, he was posting good stats, but he was the 210 lb 21-year-old playing against teenagers.

His next seasons were in the ECHL, so take that for what it is. In the end, it seems that Busto was either a guy Sather wanted off the books (unlikely he micromanages that much) or that he was simply brought in to replace TJ Kemp in Hamilton and nothing more. Don't go out and buy your Busto sweater anytime soon.



Not at camp

1) Alexei Emelin

Another NHL-ready, contractually tied player in the organization. It is reported that Emelin spurned the Canadiens, though like Valentenko, you have to wonder what the team was offering this able pro.

Skill-wise, Emelin is the best immediate fit for the Canadiens. He plays sound hockey, he plays rough, he plays in that gray area of the rules. Emelin is exactly the type of player that a young goalie tandem need – someone to make opposing forwards think before entering the zone. Someone who serves notice that shots from good positions are something that shooters will have to pay for with bruises.

Anyway, this year is fait accompli, he's at Kazan. If the allegations of an out clause are true, he could replace Mara next season. If not, it'll be at least two more.


2) David Fischer

Hockey's Future says:

The club remains high on their former first rounder and the former Minnesota Mr. Hockey has slowly but surely progressed in his development.

I have to seriously question that assertion. If the club were high on Fischer, I wonder whether they'd really be leaving him in a program that clearly isn't vaulting him to a future of NHL stardom – certainly now they have their mentor/coach Guy Boucher in place on the farm.

That said, Fischer is still one for the plans. While McDonagh was the better absolute prospect, in the Canadiens scheme where Markov, Gorges, Weber and Subban figure in the future, Fischer as the 6'3" now more defensive defenceman (out of necessity) is a better organizational fit.

When he was drafted in 2006, Fischer was a tall 2006 Mr. Hockey with talent to progress offensively and defensively. As time has passed, things haven't gone quite as well as the optimists thought. Though he is still 2006 Mr. Hockey, he also now holds the inauspicious title of 2007, 2008, 2009 Mr. 4th defenceman (I now get overtaken by younger players at our school) Wisconsin. His offensive game looks ever dwindling, and he's no Ken Daneyko. It's a tale of talent analysis gone off, but not so far that he's out of the picture. A 6th defenceman out of a first round pick (with Varlamov, Berglund and Giroux right behind) isn't great, but it's better than nothing.


3) Konstantin Korneev

This guy is a forgotten prospect. I mean truly off the radar. In deciding whether I should even continue mentioning his name, I did a search and found the Habs still maintain a player page for him.

He's worth mentioning though, because though 25 is old to import a player, he's already a star in the Russian pro ranks and for the senior national team at times. It would probably take massive roster overhaul again, a transfer agreement and a few other minor miracles to ever see him in bleu, blanc, rouge, but as non-NHLers go, he ranks for us.


4) Mac Bennett

The scouting reports say good skater, good instincts and most irrelevant of all (hi Keith Gretzky and Brian Sakic) bloodlines. If that's all you read and saw you'd be pretty stoked. Mac has added some context to the reports by attending a couple of camps with the Habs now. Impressive at the development camp and again at rookie camp, initial signs are good.

The fact that Mac Bennett has suddenly appeared at #14 on the list of Canadiens prospects at Hockey's Future probably speaks more to the prospects below him than it might about him. While Mac certainly provides intrigue, the fact remains no one in the Habs organization, nor likely any of the fans writing up about him, have seen him playing real games against anyone that isn't at a US high school. For every one Sean Hill, there are ten or twenty Steve McCools, Matt Shasbys and Kishels.

What's more, this is the very easiest time to be raving about a player like Bennett. We know he had a good season because he was drafted. The question always remains with any of these prospects – will it translate into another? Will it be duplicated at a higher level? We'll see. This season he is still in a high school league, so our answer may have to wait until Michigan 2011.


5) Niklas Torp

Torp to me sounds like the Swedish Emelin. Not giant, not great offensively, but an abrasive defender who makes people work for their space. Last year was not a year of distinction for Niklas. However, as a 19-year-old defensive defenceman in a men's league, what would one really expect.

This year has started out nicely for the youngster, and he's definitely grabbed a regular spot on the Jonkoping team. Let's not get too carried away, but he does already have more points than last season after 3 games. I think it's more of an indication of increased role than any sudden offensive awakening – still a good sign there.


6) Greg Pateryn

I'll forgive you for overlooking the guy we got for Grabovski, he's pretty low down the chart. There's not much to say yet about Pateryn. He has had one season at Michigan as a part-timer and is now vying to stake a place as a 19-year-old there. As for Montreal, one can't really see him taking less time than Fischer has been, so his pro career, if it ever gets going at all, will likely be another 3 years away.


7) Joe Stejskal

Here's another in the long list of American high school defeders in the Habs system. Outstanding high school (well, of course, he was drafted after all), but lacklustre in college thus far. It says that he's had time on the top pairing, which certainly shows any offensive prowess we thought he might have had might not be as natural to him as some. Furthermore, he's playing at Dartmouth, not Boston, not Michigan. While great for his academic career, the men in green don't immediately spring to mind when thinking of future NHLers.

He's still young enough that 2 more seasons of college could turn his career around, but you won't find any of my money on that. His saving grace is that he isn't 5'10".

Canadiens Season Preview Remaining NHL Defencemen

We must be getting close to the season now. For you today, the reserve defencemen:

Gill, Weber


Hal Gill

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (PIT)	62	2	8	10	+11	4.22	6.06	2.43	0.65	-1.78	53
07-08 (TOR/PIT)	81	3	21	24	+6	4.70	5.30	2.89	0.89	-2.00	68
06-07 (TOR)	82	6	14	20	+11	4.69	4.84	2.75	1.36	-1.39	91

Even-strength profile
	Above average offense at even strength Above average defence at even strength Average chance production at even strength Negative CORSI: -2.9

Legend


Stats notes
He's 7th on my list. I have to justify why I may have sold him short:

1) Great balance of offense and defence, but...
There's no denying it, the top half of the pie is exactly what we're after – above average O and D. The only thing was: shouldn't it have been expected? I certainly think the offensive half should have been on Pittsburgh. And looking at the D, it's better than I would have guessed for Pitts, but Gill was tempting fate by allowing more than the average number of chances against Fleury and co.

2) Possibility of bad giveaway balance
My perception of Hal Gill was always that of a slow defenceman who gave away the puck when pressured. Never mind for a minute that Andrei Markov is no star in this regard, getting near 3.0 giveaways every 60 minutes is keeping some poor company – well within the bottom 10% of Dmen in this league. Gill has flirted with that number twice in the last 3 years and last year, though improved, was still in the bottom 30-odd Dmen in this regard. A one-off is forgivable (see O'Byrne), is 3 strikes?

3) Strangely low hit numbers
Considering he's 6'7", it seems it would be difficult to keep the hit numbers as low as they are. It makes me wonder if Gill hits when players come to him, but is not so good at catching them. Either that or he's the Peter Crouch of hockey – a man whose made a career on being a giant, but possessing in reality a complement of little man skills. This was really what tipped it for O'Byrne with me. Though I don't think hits are the be all and end all that Komi does, I do think it is important not to dress 6 defencemen who shy from hard contact.


Tobalev on Gill:

Part two of the plan is the bigger and heavier Hal Gill. His size (6’7”, 250lbs.) are really the only things getting him work in this league. My memories of him are that of a pretty useless defenceman on some pretty dirty/cheap teams (save Pittsburgh). It is therefore quite surprising that he was +11 last year, but I guess we should remember that he was on the best team. The whole hockey world saw during the Pens’ playoff run what this behemoth could (and couldn’t) offer on the ice and many people saw him as a liability on that team. He was, however, used in 24 playoff games and did win a cup – those are experiences that can’t be taught.

I am glad that we are employing Gill as a #6 man as anything more would be way beyond his abilities. The upside for us is that he is big and strong and should in theory intimidate opposing forwards. He also doesn’t seem afraid to muck it up and drop them when he has to, which will also help our team. His addition should, at the very least, help us reduce chances against and will hopefully alleviate some of the fighting and hitting duties from other (smaller) players. He may chip in a few points, but as a 3rd pairing (with Mara, Spacek or Gorges) type guy all I’ll be looking for is positive play. If, for his 12-15 minutes/game, he can keep our end clear then I will start to see the value in him more and more.


Where Gill will start 2009-10: Starting lineup

Where Gill will end 2009-10: Insurance policy

Points: 2 G, 7 A, 9 Pts



Yannick Weber

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	3	0	1	1	-1	5.24	1.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	2

Stats notes
I didn't bother to run all the stats on Weber – 3 games doesn't really tell us anything. And it would be foolish to try and pick trends from the regular season and playoffs as short as they were.

If I can indulge in one point of frivolity, I'd have to say that it is a good sign that the projected offensive defenceman has already got his first NHL points and his first playoff goal. Though far from confirmation, it shows the first signs of his abilities to adapt to the higher level.


Tobalev on Weber

Do we have another Swiss (Can’t) Miss on our hands? I sure hope so. If he could be half the player that Streit was/is then we are in for a good ride (until we let him walk for nothing that is)...

Yannick really surprised a lot of people last year and it all started back in September. There was a buzz about him out of camp and he turned that into a strong start on the farm. In fact, he netted 44 points in just 68 games which is quite something for a 20 year old, let alone a defenceman. His strong play and some injuries (Markov, Schneider) meant that he finally made his way to MTL in the spring. Believe it or not he only featured in 6 games (3 of which came in the playoffs), but still managed to turn some heads. His play during that time looked alright, and he scored a goal and added 2 assists. He held his own in his our end too. Weber was a nice little bonus for Habs fans who had endured a rough 3 months.

Even so, I think that there are just too many NHL-level defencemen already in Montreal for Yannick to crack the squad this year as a regular. He will certainly get a call-up or two, but there is no point having a PP specialist in the press-box as a 7th defenceman – that position has O’Byrne written all over it. Instead he should go to Hamilton and play a lot of hockey. A spot will likely open up in Montreal in the next few years as we always seem to be rotating new PP bodies onto the blue-line anyway. I would like Yannick to work on his defensive game so that it becomes NHL-ready for when we need him. Offensively, however, he just has to stay the course – I see no issues there. Weber should put up 0.75 PPG type numbers on the farm and 0.25-0.35 PPG numbers when he is in Montreal; I just can’t foresee how much time he’ll play where.


Where Weber will start 2009-10: Hamilton

Where Weber will end 2009-10: Hamilton, with a few more games of NHL experience

Points: 3 G, 3 A, 6 Pts


I have put Gill and Weber in this category of remaining NHL defencemen for now because that is where, come season's end, I think they will be. Weber, as we said, has too many NHLers in front of him this season and will probably be in Hamilton for a big part of the season. Gill on the other hand is an able NHLer, I just feel that on versatility and potential (and a whim) that O'Byrne might work out better. Nevertheless, Gill will play, and quite a lot, quite simply because many NHLers have a very hard time the bigger the body they see in front of them (see Plekanec).




Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier

Canadiens Season Preview Third Pairing Defence

After the questionable addition of O'Byrne to the second pairing, I think I've come back to earth with the third group. And gosh, it's nice to have some depth again back here:

Gorges – Mara


Josh Gorges

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	81	4	19	23	+12	3.46	5.92	2.06	0.92	-1.14	37
07-08 (MTL)	62	0	9	9	E	4.50	5.98	1.84	1.07	-0.77	32
06-07 (SJ/MTL)	54	1	3	4	-4	2.53	4.94	1.36	0.91	-0.45	26

Even-strength profile
	Near-elite offensive production at even strength Average GA at even strength Average chance production at even strength Negative CORSI: -4.6

Legend


Stats notes
The man who reminded us that there is more to trading than shedding salary at the deadline had a good year last season. Here's why:

1) Progress
The word progress was more often than not associated with the word "stunted" last season than the words "Canadiens prospect", but Josh Gorges was the exception. From a bit part player in San Jose, and then Montreal in 2007, he has shown steady movement towards being a top 4 defenceman in he league. It shows in his offensive numbers, ice time, his lower PIMs per ice time and his +/-.

2) +12
While not technically the team high, it is really the most impressive plus/minus on the Canadiens from last season. Unlike Tanguay (+13) who missed each minute of the rough times, Gorges battled through February and still came out with this great stat. Normally I think +/- is too simplistic and not worth a second thought, but in the context of such a dismal second half, such a high +/- in Gorges case really does stand out.

3) Passing
You don't get a 2.92 GF/60 as a defenceman without having some skill. Nor do you pile up 19 assists. Last season, Gorges was given the chance to play a bigger role and he did so with aplomb. He showed us how having two defencemen who can pass is better than one. He showed us that Markov has more offense in him than we thought (when unshackled from backwards passing partners).


We all naturally expect progress to continue for ever more, and that would be nice. However, even if Gorges stalls at his 2008-09 level for the rest of his career, we have a good defenceman on our hands. It will be interesting to see how Martin's system affects him – a player who was already trying to play intelligent defence in the old regime.


Tobalev on Gorges:

Josh started last season where he had left off the year before. He was becoming the unsung hero of the defensive corps; a title long held by Francis Bouillon. His unexpected play as a 6th defenceman earned him a spot in fans’ hearts and also a spot in the team’s top-4. About midway through last season, however, the team (and fans alike) were asking too much of the kid. All of a sudden he was on the PP, he was out for more key situations and his ice-time was sky-rocketing. No longer was he the solid 14-16 minute man on the third pairing; no, now we expected a lot from our new #3. It all seemed too much for Josh to handle as his play (especially in our own end) only got worse as the season went on. He did finish the year with a career-high in points (23), but most of the other aspects of his game had gone south.

With any luck (and good coaching), Josh will be asked to be a #5 this year. The additions of Mara and Spacek should make that a reality and because of it I believe Josh will excel. He is the perfect type of player that can step in, when needed, onto a top-2 pairing, but, on a healthy team, should be playing less than 18 minutes. His offensive numbers will surely take a hit this year which is why I only expect between 10-17 points. Defensively, however, is where I expect to see Josh at his best. I would like to see a +15 season, but wouldn’t be surprised for one bit if he surpassed the +20 mark. I think that he represents the next generation of fresh-faced Habs and I am looking forward to him being a leader on this team for years to come.


Where Gorges will start 2009-10: 5th defenceman

Where Gorges will end 2009-10: 5th defenceman estraordinaire

Points: 3 G, 13 A, 16 Pts



Paul Mara

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (NYR)	76	5	16	21	+2	5.12	3.58	0.54	0.42	-0.12	94
07-08 (NYR)	61	1	16	17	+1	4.07	4.07	0.99	0.61	-0.38	52
06-07 (BOS/NYR)	78	5	18	23	-16	2.50	4.17	1.15	0.31	-0.83	113

Even-strength profile
	Average to above average offense at even strength Excellent GA at even strength Below average at preventing chances at even strength Neutral CORSI: +0.8

Legend


Stats notes
Prior to his signing, what I knew of Paul Mara was drawn from the two seasons I had selected him in my hockey pool. The first time I was fortunate enough to take Paul, he had one of his outlying 40+ point seasons. Suffice to say, I was pleased enough to spend another pick on him, this time in 2007-08, where I was met with disappointment. Between those two experiences and his stats here, I think there's a picture to be painted of a player who's progressed from offensive prodigy to reliable-enough 5/6th guy:

1) Low turnovers
In 76 games last season, Mara committed 13 giveaways. Per 60 minutes that translates to 0.5 giveaways an hour – pretty good and good enough for 7th in the league. The heartening thing is that while last year was outstanding for Paul in that regard, he has shown a history for it. His 0.99/60 the year previous and 1.15/60 in 2006-07 would also be in the top 10-12% of the league's Dmen.

2) Little big man
Not the typical big man, by his stats, it seems that Mara has a way of staying out of the way of the puck. His blocked shots totals seem consistently quite low compared to what we've seen from the Habs. It may be a difference in coaching philosophy. It may also be that Mara is not the man to put himself in the lane (other stats show his teammates blocked a fair number when he was on the ice).

3) Loved Lundqvist
While Mara's stats look like a real pleasure compared to some of our team's own from last season, one shouldn't discount the role that Lundqvist played in making them so. Expected save % is a stat that shows what a save percentage would be if the average goalie faced the shots that each goalie faced (based on shot position and average shooting percentages from those positions). Henrik Lundqvist last season had the third lowest expected save % in the NHL last season (for goalies with more than 5 games action), the worst was his back-up. The positive for the Rangers was that Lundqvist turned that 0.890 expected rate to a 0.913 percentage in real play – the 5th best improvement in the league. So, that shiny green 2.04 GA/60 is a lot lower than you'd expect from Mara with a below average ability to prevent chances. Combine that with the fact that Lundqvist on average faced harder shots than other goalies, and you can understand why Mara owes a lot of his new contract to King Henrik.


While Mara could crash back to earth playing in front of a more average goalie, there is hope he could excel as well. His low turnovers and proven ability to pass should match well with Gorges. And the Martin system, not too much of a departure from the Renney system should help. If now he can just turn down the penalties another notch, he'll complete the transition to a guy we're happy not to notice.


Tobalev on Mara

Mara is part one of Gainey’s plan to get bigger and stronger in our own end. At 6’4” he towers over players like Schneider, Bouillon and Brisebois. His size, I believe, is the best thing going for him and is probably the reason he always seems so sought after. He did manage 21 points and a +2 rating in New York last year which aren’t bad numbers considering the circumstances. His career -95 does scare me a bit, but to be fair to him he has been on some pretty weak teams. He has proven over the last few years that he is offensively capable, but is quite content playing in a more defensive role.

Mara, at his best, can be a #3, but on this version of the Habs will be a #5. To tell you the truth as a #5 man I am quite alright with this pick-up. He is big enough and tough enough that he should be able to settle things down a little better than some of our former rearguard. His career 0.37 PPG shows that, when needed, he could probably get the job done up front too. I see Paul playing an entire season on either the 2nd or 3rd pairing; he is a decent enough skater that 18-21 minutes/game are not out of the question. I also expect about 18-24 points and a positive season in the +/- department. He won’t be a flashy player for us, but if he does exactly what we expect of him the fans should have no problems with him.


Where Mara will start 2009-10: With uncertainty

Where Mara will end 2009-10: A solid place in the top 6 every night

Points: 3 G, 16 A, 19 Pts


As a pairing

Pairing #3	Effect O/D
D – Josh Gorges		Made most teammates better defensively Made all common linemates better offensively Played best overall with Andrei Markov last season
D – Paul Mara		Made all his common linemates teammates better defensively Made most linemates better offensively Played best overall with Michal Rozsival last season

Yesterday, I promised I would explain myself in this article. And clearly there does need to be explanation, since both Gorges and Mara look far better defenders on paper than O'Byrne.

As I stated yesterday, the "second pairing" was really the Hamrlik pairing – whatever their ice time ends up being. Last season Gorges and Hamrlik played together a lot, and both players came out worse for wear. repeating that experiment unnecessarily would seem silly. So that then left me with a Hamrlik pairing and a Gorges pairing to work out. Hamrlik and O'Byrne actually played well together so that info goes in, and from this profile, it seemed to me that Gorges likes a player that can handle himself and the puck on the ice. He played well with Markov, Bouillon and Schneider, but badly with Hamrlik, Komisarek and O'Byrne. Given the choices that left Mara – who we now know is not your typical big man.

The pairing is actually quite an exciting proposition for me. Given a regulated number of minutes and a clear brief, I think that Gorges and Mara could well develop into the second pairing and certainly the one Jacques would feel comfortable putting on the ice when a lead has to be held or play is tight.




Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier

Canadiens Season Preview: Second Pairing Defence

Now that for all intents and purposes, I've put the two best defenders on the top pairing, anyone who plays with Hamrlik will have the honour of being on the second paring, though it's not to say he won't be the 6th defenceman. As you know, I've looked at many things here, and the conclusion I've come to on the second pairing is this:

Hamrlik – O'Byrne


Roman Hamrlik

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	81	6	27	33	+4	3.52	6.59	2.64	1.39	-1.25	62
07-08 (MTL)	77	5	21	26	+7	4.65	6.30	2.36	1.21	-1.14	38
06-07 (CGY)	75	7	31	38	+22	2.96	4.02	2.32	1.58	-0.74	88

Even-strength profile
	Above average offensive production at even strength Average GA at even strength Below average prevention of chances at even strength Negative CORSI: -6.6

Legend


Stats notes
Hamrlik must have had a heck of a first half for him to end up with such respectable stats and yet to be found wearing the ring of shame from Habs fans. Those of fickle memories won't remember (or give credit) for work well done in the first 50 games though. Take this forgotten report, for example:

2. Roman Hamrlik: A
Teams can't win with just one great defenceman. There have to be options. Hamrlik is the perfect option. Like Andrei, he takes care of defence first. His calming influence on everyone, including O'Byrne, Brisebois, Bouillon and the viewers, is invaluable. When he plays well the team plays well, too – hence a good first half. The transformation of the Canadiens from playoff outsider to this could be traced to Souray for Hamrlik without too much reaching, you know.

To note:

1) Gentle giant
Perhaps it's because he came through as an offensive prodigy, but Roman Hamrlik has never been counted among the feared defencemen in the league. But as we know, being feared doesn't always equate to good defence. Roman, while being gentler than most men his size, is actually an acolyte of the Markov takeaway style over the Komisarek hit style. His 41 takeaways aren't Markov level, but they do put him in the top 10% of defencemen.

2) Sacrificed defence for offense
At least last season, it seems to me that Hamrlik sacrificed what was previously a very sound defensive contribution for a few more points. My advice to him would be to cut that out, for he's a far more valuable player to use if he can be our defensive lynchpin rather than a poor man's Markov. Keep the good passes coming, but full flight down the wing for shots? Let's curtail that where possible.

3) Too many PIMs
Last season Roman also took too many penalties for a player of his importance. Because of his strengths (takeaways, size and positioning), he is probably first choice for the PK. Well you can't kill a penalty if you're in the box. Cutting out the silly pens should help him regain his game and his stature with fans.


Things may have gone downhill, but the stats say Hamrlik slipped below our expectations of him, yes; but our expectations (based on that first half) were very high. In the end, his season was a decent one on average, and he was 2nd best at the back by a fairly clear margin.


Tobalev on Hamrlik:

There are conflicting sentiments out there amongst Habs fans. Some people really value the former #1 pick yet others see him as a waste of space and as a liability. I’ll tell you this though, at his best Roman can be an outstanding defenceman and can easily look like a #1. In his first year with the Habs, he was solid each and every game in his own end and even contributed quite nicely to the offence. Last year, however, it seemed that his play was much more unpredictable and it wasn’t unusual for him to have an off night on the nights we were racking up the Ls. All in all last year, I think, was still a good year, just maybe not great. He picked up 33 points (not bad for our third choice) and finished the year at +4.

He seemed to do well last year with Gorges, but I wouldn’t hold Martin to that pairing. I am not too concerned about who he’ll play with and even think it is conceivable that he partners anyone on the team. I am not worried about stats in Hamrlik’s case this year as all I hope for is a return to ’07-’08 form. If he can be a defensive force for 82 games then the season will be a success. I still, however, expect him to post at least 25 points (4-8 of which should be goals). If he plays the way we all know he can then his career -60 rating can only improve. In addition, don’t be surprised to see Hammer wearing a letter of some shape this year as he will likely take on quite a big leadership role now that Komi has gone.


Where Hamrlik will start 2009-10: Facing the Leafs best line of ... I'll get back to you after I've read my ECHL media guide from 2007.

Where Hamrlik will end 2009-10: With renewed faith from Canadiens fans

Points: 6 G, 20 A, 26 Pts



Ryan O'Byrne

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	37	0	5	5	-7	8.27	4.40	2.90	1.18	-1.72	58
07-08 (MTL)	33	1	6	7	+7	8.81	6.78	2.58	1.36	-1.22	45

Even-strength profile
	Profile as hideous as the colour scheme – below average in every facet Bottom tier in offensive output at even strength Bottom tier in prevention of chances at even strength Awful CORSI: -10.1

Legend


Stats notes

We all know O'Byrne had a rough year in 2008-09, but from all signs he's eager to put it behind him. ONe can't ignore all the negatives, but nor should we overlook some of the positive things:

1) Will replace Komisarek's hits
In what amounts to a single season's worth of games, the "rookie" Dman showed he wasn't afraid to throw his weight around. With more playing time, 8+ hits per 60 minutes will see him flirt with league leaders here.

2) Not completely inept offensively
We'll never see him on the PP, but O'Byrne has put up a respectable 11 assists in his first 70 NHL games. When you consider that he has been playing less with top line forwards than perhaps he has with lesser lights, it's not bad. The reason to hope here is that Martin's game will call for better passes from all defenders to forwards, and Ryan has shown glimmers of hope in that regard.

3) Giveaways not the entire problem
Sometimes giveaways stand out more than any other plays. Sometimes they become the only thing you can see in your mind's eye when you hear a player's name. I think this might be the case for Ryan. But while he's certainly flirting with the bottom of the table with his giveaways, he's still better than half the TO corps (Schenn, Van Ryn and Komisarek). Though I don't have a stat to prove it here, it was Ryan's other problem – positioning – that led to that nasty deep turquoise stain on his pie chart. Luckily, positioning is something Jacques Martin is teaching each day this fall, so Ryan, with an open mind, will benefit.


There you have it, Ryan O'Byrne, blemishes, scars and all. Of all the players previewed, I don't think I have had to suspend the belief in stats as much as I have in putting O'Byrne on the second pairing. Call it giving him a second chance. In his round-about way (trying to rescue Brisebois' reputation along the way), even Bertrand Raymond agrees with me that Ryan deserves another chance on the merry-go-round. If you can read French, then you should have look at the article on O'Byrne, it's a very good read (whatever you make think of Raymond).


Tobalev on O'Byrne

No player took a bigger step back last year than Ryan. Not even Carey Price himself was able to blow his stock as badly as this kid. It just seemed that his season went from bad to worse. The defensive blunders, own goal and lack of offence became intolerable for all of us and the coaches alike. In the end, he only saw 37 games of action in which he seemed to make no positive impact at all. It appeared, at times, that the once confident and smooth-skating giant had lost all hockey-sense – he even managed to look worse than Brisebois on multiple occasions.

Ryan must be able to see the writing on the wall this year and it certainly isn’t pretty. He is obviously no longer being looked upon as a can’t miss prospect, since Gainey went out and got two similarly sized defencemen. With minimal offensive upside, it wouldn't be surprising if Ryan didn’t see much time with Montreal this year. Injuries, though, provide his lifeline. If one or two of Gill, Mara or Hamrlik miss, it'll mean playing time and a chance for the 25 year-old to prove that he belongs at this level. I said last year that if a 6’6” guy is unwilling to play a solid, physical game then he really is just a waste of space. His game has to be hitting, possession and board-battles, otherwise we may as well call anyone up from the farm instead; at least that player might score a goal or two. Time will tell if he plays or not – he could play more than seasons past or he could play very little. When he plays in Montreal he must make it count, if not his time may be short-lived and may even be his final stint in the bleu, blanc, rouge.


Where O'Byrne will start 2009-10: In the pressbox most likely

Where O'Byrne will end 2009-10: Waving up at Hal Gill from the ice

Points: 2 G, 10 A, 12 Pts


As a pairing

Pairing #2	Effect O/D
D – Roman Hamrlik		Made most teammates better offensively Made most teammates worse defensively Seemed to prefer a big partner Played best overall with Ryan O'Byrne last season
D – Ryan O'Byrne		Made some teammates better defensively Made all his common linemates worse offensively Played best overall with Roman Hamrlik last season

As agreed at the beginning, this pairing is Hamrlik's. The decision then is who to play beside Roman. The choices: Gorges, Mara, Gill, O'Byrne, Weber or Carle.

Like me, your first thoughts here probably jumped to Josh Gorges. He's probably our 4th best defenceman with Mara, and he has played with Hamrlik before. But I tell you what, it doesn't play out for me. Here's why. Hamrlik played about equal time (300-400 minutes) with 3 different players last season: Ryan O'Byrne, Josh Gorges and Patrice Brisebois. Hamrlik was at his best defensively with O'Byrne (marks for that), even though his offense suffered. Hamrlik was at his best offensively with Gorges, but was much poorer when they were together on D, as was Josh. And, predictably, Patrice Brisebois made worse Hamrlik's averages on both offense and defence.

I then add that he played pretty badly with Markov, Bouillon, Schneider and Weber; but very well with Komisarek – and I start to see what makes Roman tick. Unlike Markov, he seems to like a big guy who hits and pushes forwards outside. Last year that meant O'Byrne and Komisarek, this year it means O'Byrne, Mara and Gill. It rules out Josh Gorges, Spacek and Markov altogether for me.

Now let me tell you why I choose O'Byrne from that group. First, though the other guys are big, they don't hit like O'Byrne (who hits twice as frequently). Gill, I excluded (though Martin probably won't) because his giveaway to takeaway ratio even in a good year for him was worse than a bad year for O'Byrne. Thirdly, O'Byrne was actually THE guy who got the best defence out of Hamrlik last year – to the tune of 2.1 GA/60 in their 365 minutes together last season. I wonder what O'Byrne's own stats might have looked like had he only played with O'Byrne and avoided his misadventures with Bouillon, Gorges and Markov.

Mara? Well, I had to consider Gorges as well. You'll hear about that tomorrow.




Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier

Canadiens Season Preview: Top Pairing Defence

Back to reality. It's time to forget the Komisareks and Briseboises of the world and move on to the guys we'll actually be cheering for this season. Up first is the first defensive pairing, Markov's duo:

Markov – Spaeck

Andrei Markov

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	78	12	52	64	-2	1.91	3.47	3.21	1.87	-1.34	36
07-08 (MTL)	82	16	42	58	+1	1.73	3.72	2.70	1.76	-0.94	63
06-07 (MTL)	77	6	43	49	+2	1.21	3.79	2.77	2.39	-0.38	56

Even-strength profile
	Average offensive production at even strength Above average chance creation at even strength Average to below average defence even strength Negative CORSI: -3.9

Legend


Stats notes
Forgive me for what I am about to say, I promise to wash my mouth out promptly. In looking through all the profiles, why is it that two that look more similar than any are those of Andrei Markov and Patrice Brisebois?

Colours alone are identical. the numbers in the pieces of pie don't wobble that much either. How can the player I call favourite, and most call the best player we've had in a decade, find an equal in the peerless Patrice Brisebois?

Well, there are a few things to put this in context. First, is the quality of competition that each player generally faced. Markov had the second highest QUALCOMP rating on the team, while Brisebois had the lowest. And, although the raw numbers are low, it merely shows that although Carbonneau was trying to get good matchups, he just wasn't all that great at it.

The other thing that should be noted is that Markov didn't actually have a very good season at ES. Though he played an average of more then 15 minutes a game at ES, he scored a mere 24 of his points there – 39 came on the PP. This speaks to a few things, really. The first, that the Canadiens weren't a very organized bunch at even strength. A lot of their goals came from haphazard occurrences rather than established zone penetration with a defender involved. It also shows that Markov had to take quite a bit off his usually outstanding offence to cover more at the back. We all saw Komi's profile. I'm not sure whether the blame was all his. However, one thing was clear, between them, Andrei and Mike made some one-man plays into 2-man ordeals last year.

Anyway, enough fretting, here's some other things to note from Andrei's stats:

1) Offensive explosion
The last 3 years show the continued progression of Andrei Markov into the ranks of elite offensive defencemen. In fact, his 171 points over that span are second best in the NHL – lagging behind only Nicklas Lidstrom.

2) Defensive steadiness
Not quite so elite in preventing goals, and perhaps the reason he never gets a Norris nod. Andrei's plus/minus is virtually neutral. As mentioned, most of his points do tend to come when he has been running the best PP in the league, so those ones don't appear in the black ledger. Even so, it might be nice to see Andrei escape the mediocrity of all those GA at ES and put up a big juicy +/- like that guy ahead of him in the points race.

3) Takeaways, not hits
Those takeaway numbers may not mean anything to you, but you should know that they are very high. Last season, Markov was third in the league for Dmen in takeaways, as he was the year before. Three seasons ago, he was the best defender in that regard. This is because Markov prefers the poke check to the body check – and when you consider his partner, he makes a good case for the more subtle form of defence.


Tobalev on Markov:

Markov was our best player, by far, last year and that was never more evident than during his absence towards the end of the year and throughout the playoffs. He rarely takes a night off from being one of the 5 best defenceman in the league. He has the ability to turn games around and that alone makes him invaluable. It will be interesting to see how he makes out without having guys like Kovalev, Koivu, Komisarek or Bouillon there as he is now really the only one left from what was our core for so many years. I don’t think that his play will regress because of all of the departures, but I think it will all have some effect on him. Andrei will now be our main leader even if he isn’t named captain as the Habs, in my eyes, are now his team.

I believe that Markov’s defensive play (or the perspective of it) will also improve this year as a partnership with Spacek, Gorges or even Mara is a huge upgrade on Komisarek. In fact I think that he is the biggest reason Mike is laughing all the way to the bank this summer, because without Marky, Mike’s mistakes would actually get noticed. Andrei's offensive numbers could go either way really. I can’t see him getting too much more than 65, maybe 70; but wouldn’t be surprised if his point total dropped to the 50-55 point range. If our PP clicks and he finds some new pass-buddies his numbers will be fine, but that may be an area of weakness for us this year. Regardless of points Andrei will still be our best player and look for him to be the difference on many a night.


Where Markov will start 2009-10: Best player on the team

Where Markov will end 2009-10: Only player nominated for an individual trophy/honour

Points: 14 G, 42 A, 56 Pts



Jaroslav Spacek

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (BUF)	80	8	37	45	+2	2.63	4.24	2.36	0.84	-1.51	38
07-08 (BUF)	60	9	23	32	+7	3.39	3.26	1.87	0.52	-1.35	42
06-07 (BUF)	65	5	16	21	+20	4.00	4.96	2.41	0.96	-1.45	62

Even-strength profile
	Outstanding offense at even strength Above average prevention of chances at even strength Below average GA at even strength Positiv CORSI: +7.8

Legend


Stats notes

I can honestly say that in the decade that Jaroslav Spacek has been in the NHL, I don't think I ever paid him a moment's notice. In fact, the first time I ever bothered to look at his career and his stats was back in July – as you can read, I was pleasantly surprised. ON a second look, there's still plenty to bring up:

1) Incredible ES offense when he's on
That number in the deep crimson in the top left of the pie chart is a very interesting one. As you'll know by now, 3.0 GF/60 is a pretty special threshold – in fact, if you score that high, you can pretty much call yourself elite (top 10% of the league). Jaroslav comes very close to that mark, which is interesting. It's interesting because his actual points at even strength aren't that high (only 23 – like Markov). So, what it shows is that his presence on the ice (and the pass to start the play that maybe isn't an assist in the end) is good, very good.

2) Impressive CORSI number
In addition to actually delivering the goods, last year Spacek was very effective with his teammates at tipping the ice the Sabres way. His +7.8 Corsi is very good. But consider that his Corsi relative to the team was even better – an astounding 14.6. To put it briefly, when Spacek was on the ice, the Sabres got 7.8 more chances every 60 minutes than they let up; when he was off, they allowed 6.8 more than they created. He definitely provided the base from which those speedy forwards could launch themselves from.

3) Low PIM
Yes there are giveaways there, like Markov, but Spacek doesn't seem to let a giveaway turn into a much worse scenario – a penalty – that often. 19 penalties in a season, considering the amount he played is laudable. Perhaps testament to a more mature approach to the game.


Like Markov, Spacek is best viewed through with an offensive skew. However, despite his shortcomings, it seems Spacek has learned how to consistently turn the ice in his own team's favour. If we are sitting here next season looking at a pie chart like this from Spacek, let me tell you, we'll be a very happy bunch.


Tobalev on Spacek

Pretty obvious that Gainey doesn’t think Markov can work the point on the PP on his own, isn’t it? First it was Souray, then Streit, then we tried no one (it didn’t work), then Schneider and now Spacek. I guess Markov has some weird clause in his contract that states that his partner’s name must begin with an S; how else could you explain this? It is a good thing then that we found Spacek as Gainey was really running out of options (no offence Staios). Spacek, for his part, had a great year in Buffalo last year and topped 40 points (he has produced that amount of points in his last two contract years) and was a leader on the blue-line for the almost-playoff team. Don’t forget, however, that at 35 he isn’t that much younger than Schneider and is likely on the decline.

Of the four PP ‘S’s Spacek has to be #2 defensively (Streit) which is something that I am quite excited about. It will be nice to have a big-shot and big PP-minute man who is also able to play in his own end. I fully expect another ‘+’ year from Jaro which will only help to improve his already solid +25 career rating. I am not sure if he’ll hit 40 points, but you have to think that 35 should not be a problem. With his shot, Markov’s passing and enough PP time that target is very much within reach. I am happy we got this player and think that you will all be too - he is better defensively than you think, has a surprisingly accurate and hard shot (good one-timer too) and, from what I’ve heard, is a stand-up team guy. He is definitely good enough to be a #2 in this league, but will slot in nicely at #3 behind his countryman, Hammer, and Andrei.


Where Spacek will start 2009-10: With the weight of the PP on his neck

Where Spacek will end 2009-10: New fan favourite

Points: 8 G, 33 A, 41 Pts


As a pairing

Pairing #1	Effect O/D
D – Andrei Markov		Made most teammates better offensively Had varied effects on defensive games (Komisarek was worse) Seemed to prefer a small quick partner to a big partner Played best overall with Josh Gorges last season
D – Jaroslav Spacek		Made most teammates better defensively Made all his common linemates better offensively Played best overall with Toni Lydman last season

As with the forward lines, I pencil in the starting point for the first pairing first. The starting point on defence for the Canadiens is Andrei Markov. From that point, I tried to guess at which player from the other 6 would help maximise the potential of Markov, while also thriving himself.

Last year's stats show that Markov no longer likes the big lout to do all the pushing while he skates here there and everywhere picking up the pieces. What lets him be at his best is actually playing with a player more like himself, who can dart around and make a good quick pass – covering more ice with movement as opposed to mass. That for me ruled out O'Byrne and Gill right away, and based on the stats from when they played together, Hamrlik too. Mara is big too, but he seems to play a different game – he was a possibility. Still, the really obvious choices were Gorges (who Markov has shown he likes) and Spacek.

In the end I opted for Spacek for a few reasons. For one thing, I think he may be able to potentiate Markov to an even greater degree than any other option. For another, Markov fit with the kind of player that Spacek liked best, while Gorges seems more adaptable.

It seems Jacques Martin has also discovered this combination as well. Though, I'll be clear, if it doesn't work out for Markov, both Jacques and I will be happy there are options this season.




Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier