On Penalties, Posts and Kreiders

The opening of the third round has been difficult for the Canadiens thus far. The team lost game #1 within minutes of puck drop and have since lost another. The most penetrating wound inflicted by the Rangers being the injury to Carey Price, which removes not only a very good goalie from the Canadiens lineup, but also a whole system of play built over months.

I wanted to explore in a little more depth the incident that precipitated Price's exit from the lineup. Much has been said about the accidental hit already. Far less about what can be done to help prevent this. I hope to touch on a bit of both.

Draft Odds Will Carey Price Escape Last Goalie Picked Scenario?

When the NHL announced that it was to create the All-Star teams for the Annual Classic by a live draft, the first thought in most peoples' minds was:

"Who will have the shame of being the last standing"

To soften the blow to the 6th goalie and the last defenceman taken, the league put in some rules to ensure these were picked by an earlier deadline. (They also softened the blow to the least deserving forward, er defenceman, when they made him an assistant captain with exemption from the draft)

But guess what. someone will still have to be picked last. What's more, with the use of cunning and guile we can all figure out who the last defender and goalie picked were anyway.

As Canadiens fans, we don't have the luxury of being from a city in the US where the NHL is really trying to promote itself right now, so we only have on representative at the game.

Carey price nearly won the write in ballots, but the always humble Penguins fans stuffed the boxes for their goalie before Christmas when his stats were so Un-Star. Carey made it anyway, either on merit or because every team has to have one representative -- you tell me.

In any case, what this all means is that just about the only reason to watch any of the festivities this weekend for the hardcore Habs fan is to see where Carey price will be selected. It should give a new barometer on Price -- what opposing players think of him.


Mock draft results

Ahead of the actual draft, one of the most popular things to do for people with 3 minutes to spare is to do a mock draft and publish it in their newspaper or on their web page. In these drafts, the columnists either pick who they'd select (credible?) or pretend to be Staal and Lidtsrom and pick that way (less credible?).

In order to get an idea of the odds for Carey, I had a browse through about 9 mock drafts to see where he stood (NHL I, NHL III, TSN, Cgy Herald, Can Press, SI, SN, Broadstreet Hockey).

At this point, I'd have to say that Carey Price is the odds on favourite to be selected with the very last pick of a goaltender. The chips seem to fall mostly this way:

1) Cam Ward
Those pretending to be Staal all took him first. Given that Staal is the one picking, it seems plausible that he might go for Ward.
7 first, 1 second, 1 fourth (never after Price)

2) Tim Thomas
The best goaltender in the league this year (and over the past few years) gets relegated by Ward, but no further.
2 first, 4 second, 3 third (once after Price -- TSN)

3) Jonas Hiller
The best save percentage over the last few years, a solid and consistent bet is recognized as such.
1 second, 3 third, 2 fourth, 3 fifth (twice after Price)

4) Marc-Andre Fleury
Having to earn a selection without an internet vote may prove harder for MAF. The pundits knock him down the few notches his career stats deserve.
3 third, 3 fourth, 2 fifth, 1 sixth (twice after Price)

5) Henrik Lundqvist
Lidstrom is Swedish, and Lundqvist is pretty reliable to a standard.
2 second, 1 fourth, 4 fifth, 2 sixth (thrice after Price)

6) Carey Price
One big fan in Darren Dreger, but also openly mocked by some fantasy drafters. He was the clear last choice form the limited selection here.
1 second, 2 fourth, 6 sixth


On form

On form alone, Carey would probably fare a bit better.

This season, he is tied for fifth among the All-Star goalies in save percentage, with 0.920, good for 13th in the NHL (tied with Ward). Carey's been good, but the league standard has gone up. He's been better at keeping the goals down, as he's 9th leaguwide in that regard (2.36) and better than both Hiller (2.50) and Ward (2.70). So let's say if this game wasn't in Carolina, then Carey would be well ahead of Cam. Then again, if it wasn't in Carolina, how would Shanahan explain Ward over Pavelec or Rinne?

If we take a regular season only view and remove playoff accolades and blushes, then Carey is also slightly better than both Ward and Fleury for a career.


Sorry folks, but unless this game is suddenly moved to a different venue, it looks like GAA numbers won't be enough to save Carey's uneasy stand until the 10th round of this draft.

If there's something we've learned about Carey in his short career, however, it's that thinking he has something to prove is a better mode than thinking he's proved something already. As far as the Habs go, it may be good for Price to add a little chip to his shoulder for the next time he faces Staal, or Richards, or St. Louis.

Meeting At The New Igloo: A Preview

A preview for Game 2. As before, we steer clear of lines and pairings and other news from Brossard and look to more important things for this match-up with the Penguins.


Key match-ups

Crosby and Plekanec
In May, Halak handed the penguins their walking papers, but it was Plekanec who handed Crosby his lunch. The Stanley Cup champ was hounded and humbled to a single goal and a minus contribution to his team. Though I'm sure we're all very worried that Letang is motivated by hate, it's Crosby's dislike of Plekanec that might be of most interest. Plekanec is ready for the season as always and is probably more than ready to replicate his form.


Fleury and Price
Two goalies who started young. One has won a Cup and so is held up as a standard for the other. Both had average numbers in 2009-10, both are looking to get above 0.900 in save percentage this year. Should be interesting to see who makes the important stops.


Letang and Subban
Two young offensive defencemen ready to accept new roles on their teams. I'm actually more interested to see if Letang's hatred can help him to defend a Subban rush.


Cooke and O'Byrne
Matt Cooke has a lot to answer for with Josh Gorges. When Matt Cooke injured Andrei Markov, it was a chance for Martin to humiliate Ryan O'Byrne by choosing to bench him in the playoffs. To start this season, O'Byrne has to suffer playing with Picard because Markov's injury lingers on, and when Markov returns will probably have lost his job to Picard. Man, he must want to pummel Cooke. Cooke, of course, doesn't know O'Byrne because the 6'5" Dman is usually hiding when the rough stuff that Cooke instigates gets under way.


Momentum

Backwards. Both teams have opened their seasons with losses. Both teams made their goalies look beatable. And both teams stars were on for important goals against. The Penguins were expected to storm and now might be downgraded to cruise through the East. The Habs didn't win when they could've, should've, would've.

On the bright side, there are no ties in the NHL anymore, so someone will get a win.


Penguins the Habs covet

Sydney Crosby
Makes things happen all on his own. He could probably even make a scorer out of a Pouliot with disinterested positioning.

Maxime Talbot
A French Canadian sure thing. He's like the Lapierre who doesn't take half seasons off. This Canadiens management would dearly love a player like Talbot.


Habs the Penguins covet

Mike Cammalleri
A winger.

Brian Gionta
A winger.

Andrei Kostitsyn
A winger.

Benoit Pouliot
A winger.

Tomas Plekanec
Can play wing.


Ready-made excuses

Michel Therrien's not in either city anymore, so honest indictments of goalies are unlikely after this one. More likely, one of these excuses for a loss:

If Montreal lose:
- Markov is injured
- Crosby plays for them
- French Canadian goalies always shut us out
- We played Thursday
- Our defensive strategy relies on a lot of luck, sorry

If Pittsburgh lose:
- We're tired from delivering season tickets all day
- We thought Paul Martin would mask all our defensive deficiencies
- Fleury is still young
- They forced us to play the puck to wingers


Impact of this result

Pittsburgh will make the playoffs this year, so this game is for positioning. The impact of a win or a loss is little really, since the President's trophy is meaningless and playoff winning will depend so much more on which wingers are added at the trade deadline than those playing tonight.

If Price loses again, I think there will be some kind of exorcism, as he will start to believe there's a cloud over him again and thereby resign to not moving his left arm all season. If the Habs win, all will be forgotten and euphoria will sweep the city until the next practice when lines are revealed.

On a serious note, Pouliot is on thin ice. As coaching decisions are made on a shift-by-shift basis in this city now, he must out-perform Eller tonight or start seriously considering community college.

Game #2-5Tired Habs Group Run Out Of Gas; Lose Gill

Details

Date: 08/05/10
Opponent: Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh

Loss: 1-2

Habs Goalie: Halak (L)
Opposition Goalie: Fleury (W)

Habs goalscorers: Cammalleri
Opposition goalscorers: Letang, Gonchar

Play of the game

Too little, too late, so the goal isn't really in consideration for me. No, tonight, it was a glove-save that Halak made, point-blank, on Letestu in the third period. The save kept the game close enough to give us a chance as I believe a goal there would have prematurely sunken us. In the end it wasn't a game-saver, but it still was a very pretty play.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Mike Cammalleri
Let's start with the good, shall we? He scored a late goal, his 9th, and fired as many shots on Fleury throughout the game. He was our most consistent threat (out-shooting Crosby by 8) and was likely our best forward from start to finish. What wasn't so great was the fact that he was getting in too close to the net; he wasn't making life very hard for the Pens. A lot of shots, and more chances than any of his teammates, but still not the level that we need from him.

Mathieu Darche
If Darche can be inserted onto the third line and out-perform 9 teammates then it makes you wonder who else may be able to do the same? Mat wasn't able to do so tonight because he has more skill, no, it is more about fatigue or, in his case, lack thereof. Fresh legs and a certain hunger to be in the playoffs (and playing for a contract), combined with energy, can be a valuable tool in this marathon. Could Sergei give us more of the same? Do I care that he may or may not be a jerk? Do I give that his teammates may or may not like him? I think so, no and no. Just like in Darche's case he is a healthy alternative who could bring something new. Darche, for his part, used all of this to his advantage and played a very good fore-checking game. I liked his work with Laps as they came close on a few separate occasions.

Maxim Lapierre
Another spirited affair from Lapierre tonight. He also looked like one of the least tired players as the top two lines couldn't really breakthrough. There were a few occasions where I thought that he could have been more aggressive offensively, but at the end of the day he did his job. Also nice to see him go 5-0 on face-offs.

Defencemen

Josh Gorges
Losing Gill could be very bad news for us, but tonight we made sure it didn't effect us too much. The main reason for that is that Gorges was able to take on more responsibility and lead (with Hammer) this suddenly inexperienced group. No Markov, Spacek, Gill and Mara...who would have thought, eh? Having 5 NHL D-men that are even eligible, at this point, is miraculous when you think of it. Josh will have to do more of the same on Monday if Gill is out, but are you the least bit surprised when I tell you that I think he can handle it?

Roman Hamrlik
The young D and Bergeron slipped up a bit in this game, so thank goodness for Hamrlik. He was very steady all game long and helped Subban through a learning game. I was surprised that Martin didn't use him more actually, towards the end. He has been a consistent offensive threat from the back over the years and, when you need goals, I may use him more than Bergeron as the fear of letting one in, at any time, is drastically reduced.

Goaltender

Jaroslav Halak - Game Puck
It is funny how a .920 night feels like an off night, but it somehow does, doesn't it? I got past those feelings, though, and realized that, yet again, he was our best player. I would love for someone else to play even better, believe you me, but you also can't beat this type of goaltending. He is giving our team a chance to win each night, in every situation and that is what makes our prospects in this series seem so exciting. The second goal was a bit weak, the first was a PP blast, but beyond those two shots I though that he was very good.

Comments

Tonight the reffing wasn't great, but wasn't the reason we lost, let's just call it typical. Our D was good, but not great, no one to blame though really. Halak was himself, not his best self, but certainly his usual self. The offence had chances, many of them actually, and even out-shot the Pens, but they didn't capitalize when they had to. So, there you have it, no one was bad, but no one stepped up and took the bull by the horns. The forwards got in, almost scored, but no one player (or group of players) really didn't do more than, the generic, 'generated chances'. At this stage of the year, when you are trying to knock a second great team in a row you can't play pretty well. You can't play a game that may have been good enough for a 4-1 win against the Islanders in February. No, it must be the game of someone's life, the goal of someone's season or the dominance that we could speak of for years. We looked tired and out of ideas by the end which is upsetting as that tells me we weren't prepared enough. I don't, however, believe that we can' t win this series and I don't, for a second, believe that there aren't a handful of players that could step up to the plate. On Monday night we need 1, 2 or more players to be at their best as you can rest assured Pittsburgh will want to get it done. These are the types of games that players dream of, so we musn't fear them. We must shoot for the glory and players must strive to be their best because, at this point, what do we really have to lose?

Game #2-3No Sustained Offensive Pressure Catches Up With Habs

Details

Date: 04/05/10
Opponent: Penguins
Location: Montreal

Loss: 0-2

Habs Goalie: Halak (L)
Opposition Goalie: Fleury (W)

Habs goalscorers: None
Opposition goalscorers: Malkin, Dupuis

Play of the game

In the third period, when we needed strong defensive efforts, Subban made an incredible play which I was hoping would be a game-saver. The play kept the game as a 0-0 game, but will likely be forgotten as in the end the Pens scored on that very PP. I still think, however, that it was one of the best plays of the series and the Habs' best on the night. A pass came from Halak's left to right and was destined for a wide open Pen. Halak was out of it, but P.K. slid across, on his stomach, to take away any chance of the pass being completed. I really liked what he did for us, and Halak, there and am upset that that play didn't end up meaning more.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Scott Gomez
Scott was our best forward tonight, but, for a change in a loss, that doesn't mean that the rest played badly. His line, whether with Pouliot or Camms, was consistently our best all night and were the ones who generated our chances throughout. I can't think of what Scott could have done differently tonight, but I guess scoring lots of goals and drawing tons of penalties wouldn't go amiss for game #4.

Brian Gionta
7 of our 18 shots came from Gionta so he can't be had up for not trying, but a scorer like him rarely shoots 7 without potting one or two. All in all he played a good game, but there was one play, on their scoring PP, in which I felt he could have been stronger (it was poor coverage at the left-point which made for an easy pass to the right side). It didn't lead to the goal, but I do expect more from the NJ-man.

Maxim Lapierre
Our bottom 2 lines haven't been too much of a force lately as their assignment seems to be - dump it in, get off. Tonight, however, I thought, of the bottom 6 forwards, Max showed some life. He tried to stir things up and that is never a bad thing. He did take 3 penalties, but in order to draw some and enrage the other team you must also take some, so I can live with that.

Defencemen

Hal Gill
Gill did a good job tonight of covering both Crosby and Malkin and, had we scored, would be remembered as the hero for doing just that. Instead the loss, and our lack of scoring, will overshadow what was a very strong effort. In particular Crosby had 1 shot and didn't seem himself as his ex-teammate made sure that he got very little room. A bit weird that Beregeron played more than him tonight as, once again, MAB struggled in his own end.

P.K. Subban
Piqué looked very good all game and did just about everything but score. There was a very heavy shot on net, some good rushes, a few amazing spins, dekes and passes and, best of all, poise in his own end. I can happily say that I am not the least bit worried about him, in any situation, but do think we need more from our back end. Spacek will help immensely as that will relegate Bergeron the the 4th line (or beyond), but I think that it is pretty clear that there is no replacing Marky.

Goaltender

Jaroslav Halak - Game Puck
Funny that a 24-shot night seems like a night off, but it really does, doesn't it? We can't forget, though, that Halak was good in this one and that he, once again, ensured that a goal or two could have been enough. There were a lot of good saves, especially in the 2nd, which had us all believing that we could not only win the game, but that we were outplaying Pittsburgh. A save on Malkin would have been ideal, but one mistake, on the PK, is well within the acceptable limit.

Comments

There aren't too many negatives from tonight, really, as we seemed to have a plan and we stuck to it. This was essentially a one-goal game in which they scored on the PP and we didn't. We were able to limit their chances to a handful and kept shots-against down to 25. Two cross-bars and two robs by Fleury meant that our chances were there, but luck wasn't on our side. I think that if we play game #4 like we played tonight then we could/should see a better result. One thing that I would like to see, however, is Sergei getting dressed over Darche. I like Darche, but he has played under 1 minute total in the past 2 games (0 seconds tonight) and that is just a waste. Put Sergei there, sit him if you want, but then you at least give yourself that option if need be. Sergei has more potential than Darche to score, is better defensively, is a better penalty-killer and is a quicker/more creative player. I understand the want to shorten the bench, but not using all 18 of your allowed spots is useless at this time of the year. Martin has to stop thinking about rewards and punishments, favourites and doghouse tenants and, instead, think about how he is going to squeak out 3 more wins in 4 games. Spacek is desperately needed right now and, considering the way he played in the Washington series, would be of serious value to us even at 60%.

All Farce GameMontreal Loses Interest; Penguins Fans Vote For Injured Reserves

It was always a joke they said. unfortunately though, the Canadiens have decided to make this farce that is the all-star game a central piece of the Centenary celebrations.

You all know about the clever (read no social life) fans from Montreal voted thousands of times for each of the six nominees from the Canadiens. The league stripped some votes and added a very basic security screen (they probably never appreciated how little social lives the guys really had).


Everything looks rosy for a while. But now it seems the Pittsburgh Penguins hopefuls are getting the full support of a similarly childish campaign. The worst part, in terms of making this event more farcical than it already is, is that they are voting for non-stars such as Whitney and Gonchar, both of whom haven't played a second since the finals last spring. Just wait, slow to wake Caps fans will be next...

Carbonneau thinks it's off. I think most us are almost at the point of calling it all off.


What can the league do?
I think it can strip the vote away from fans. Few would contest that those of us who read blogs day and night and think and write about the Habs are big fans. But I doubt many of you readers have submitted thousands of votes. I haven't voted at all. I'm not sure I will – certainly not this year.

The vote could be stripped because the fans who do vote have a few times now (Rory Fitzpatrick, Canadiens 08 and Penguins 08) crossed the line. In their place, I would suggest a simple ballot among the players. It would be like the Lester Pearson award time 6. You could bar voting for oneself, or even teammates. Personally, I think that would be just as fun to see for the fans.

Ah, but the league doesn't care about that really. They care more about traffic to their website, right? I think a little more concern for their image, even at the expense of the pennies they can get from housebound teenagers in Pittsburgh and Montreal, would be a new and possibly refreshing approach.

While the league is about it, maybe they could scrap the requirement for a player from each team. By the time that happens, there's little room for actual all-stars. Imagine if all six Canadiens made it. With the need to represent every team, only one player from each remaining team could crack it. That would mean Malkin or Crosby sits so Doug Weight or Matt Stajan can play. Some teams have been so devoid of real all-stars for so long that they are making Hall of Fame resumes for their lame-stars (DiPietro anyone?).

Anyway, who are the all-stars so far?

I have Tim Thomas in goal (mindful that December, as usual, will probably alter this one); Markov and Green on defence; Malkin, Crosby and Ovechkin (no surprises) up front.

Anyone still voting for Komi?

The Arbitration Farce: When's Kostitsyn's Extension Going To Be Announcued?

The Penguins have filed for salary arbitration with Marc-Andre Fleury. The Penguins have no intention of going to salary arbitration with Marc-Andre Fleury.

The Penguins exploit a loophole and prevent Kevin Lowe or a desperate GM from targeting Fleury on July 1st:

Arbitration hearings are set by the National Hockey League and take place from July 20 to August 4. Both sides can continue to negotiate a contract until that time.

"By filing for salary arbitration it gives us extra time to continue to negotiate a contract with Marc-Andre," Pens general manager Ray Shero said. "As a result of the filing, Penguins' fans are assured that Marc-Andre will be under contract to our club for next season. Marc-Andre has done a tremendous job for us. We remain committed to negotiating a contract with him in the near future."

This strategy is not stupid. It is quite shrewd actually.

I will be more upset than ever now if the Canadiens manage to dangle Andrei Kostitsyn for even a split second for all those jumped up GMs on July 1st. Much better to keep him in house for when all their lazy asses are on holiday come August having already blown the load on the Ryan Malones of the league.

Bob. Another chance to show us you are not just one of the pack. Let's see it...

Head Coach Therrien: No Thanks

Now that Michel Therrien is on the verge of a Stanley Cup final, some Montrealers have gotten to thinking that we let one get away.

Let me assure you: we didn't – not in Therrien anyway.

I wrote a review of Therrien's Montreal tenure before (and you can read it here). The facts show he misused his resources, squandered opportunity and generally didn't do very well. He may have matured, but he was not a good coach back then.

Whether he is a good coach now or not is not clear, nor is it of great concern to me. While there is some skill involved in coaching the current league MVP, the upcoming league MVP and other first overall picks, the fact is there are at least twenty odd coaches who could handle that brief. I think many an illustrious Florida coach could get wins out of Crosby, Malkin and Hossa.

Let's not let one Stanley Cup final appearance have us longing for the Michel "Second penalty" Therrien.