The opening of the third round has been difficult for the Canadiens thus far. The team lost game #1 within minutes of puck drop and have since lost another. The most penetrating wound inflicted by the Rangers being the injury to Carey Price, which removes not only a very good goalie from the Canadiens lineup, but also a whole system of play built over months.
I wanted to explore in a little more depth the incident that precipitated Price's exit from the lineup. Much has been said about the accidental hit already. Far less about what can be done to help prevent this. I hope to touch on a bit of both.
Showing posts with label injury. Show all posts
Showing posts with label injury. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
Wednesday, October 02, 2013
The Case Against Fighting
The case against fighting is made masterfully by the eloquent JT of The H Does Not Stand for Habs. Give it a read if you have a serious stake in one side or the other of this debate.
I have nothing to add to the complete argument she made on the topic. If you prefer to comment here on the debate, we have our views too. I'll engage.
I have nothing to add to the complete argument she made on the topic. If you prefer to comment here on the debate, we have our views too. I'll engage.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
How Scott Gomez's Injuries Have Been a Blessing for GM
Scott Gomez looks close to returning to build on his 4 point effort this season. No longer a member of my hockey pool roster, I can watch his play once again with simple appreciation -- without asking for tangible results.
Thinking about his return got me thinking about how his absence has been a blessing in a way, perhaps not for the team, but definitely for the GM.
Here are some reasons I think Gauthier should be thanking Gomez:
1) It has allowed the team to lose
More people have been accepting of the recent losses than we'd have previously thought possible. Another injury and the new salary floor model Canadiens shouldn't have been expected to do anymore. or so the story is evolving. The notion that the team would have made the playoffs without injuries is fully untested now and so the GM's team building will always be considered next to the couplet "considering injuries"
2) Proving some worth
At this stage of his career, it seems Gomez is better at proving his worth by absence than presence. It's hard to ignore how this has affected Tomas Plekanec, usually the Canadiens best player. Whether we like it or not, other teams dedicate effort to guarding against Gomez. Without that distraction, Plekanec is withering und3r the brights.
3) Desharnais is establishing a permanent niche
Without any real competition at centre, Desharnais has been getting plenty of minutes and all the top wingers. During the process, he's proving that he can handle that. Whether this ends up benefiting the Canadiens with a long-term player or a fruitful trade, it's not something that was guaranteed had Desharnais been subject to the reality of a four-way competition for centre minutes.
4) Eller may finally be emerging
When Eller first came, the flashes of offensive confidence were very rare indeed. It probably didn't help he was toiling next to lesser passing options. With Gomez out, Eller has had chances now and again to get top billing and has taken that as a vote of confidence, it seems.
5) Money in Molson pocket
Want to know what pleases owners as much as wins: money. Gomez's injury compensation has probably provided as much revenue for the Molsons as a short playoff run, and without the need to cancel the April trip to the best golf resorts in the Carolinas. An owner in a good mood is an owner more likely to be lenient about that other business objective.
It's been my opinion from the start that this Habs team was on the bubble. In the summer, I noted some very important assumptions that people were making about Price, Subban and Plekanec among others that would have to align for the expectations to really come to fruition.
I wrote this about Gomez, but I could have written it about Markov. The notion is that injuries, whoever has been affected, have affected our ability to judge this team properly. There is sufficient doubt now that what we saw is what we could have seen, and so the evaluation of the GM's work is not realistic.
I don't mean to pass judgment on the GM myself or any of his isolated decisions. I merely wished to highlight how in this case an injury has worked out quite nicely for the guy.
Thinking about his return got me thinking about how his absence has been a blessing in a way, perhaps not for the team, but definitely for the GM.
Here are some reasons I think Gauthier should be thanking Gomez:
1) It has allowed the team to lose
More people have been accepting of the recent losses than we'd have previously thought possible. Another injury and the new salary floor model Canadiens shouldn't have been expected to do anymore. or so the story is evolving. The notion that the team would have made the playoffs without injuries is fully untested now and so the GM's team building will always be considered next to the couplet "considering injuries"
2) Proving some worth
At this stage of his career, it seems Gomez is better at proving his worth by absence than presence. It's hard to ignore how this has affected Tomas Plekanec, usually the Canadiens best player. Whether we like it or not, other teams dedicate effort to guarding against Gomez. Without that distraction, Plekanec is withering und3r the brights.
3) Desharnais is establishing a permanent niche
Without any real competition at centre, Desharnais has been getting plenty of minutes and all the top wingers. During the process, he's proving that he can handle that. Whether this ends up benefiting the Canadiens with a long-term player or a fruitful trade, it's not something that was guaranteed had Desharnais been subject to the reality of a four-way competition for centre minutes.
4) Eller may finally be emerging
When Eller first came, the flashes of offensive confidence were very rare indeed. It probably didn't help he was toiling next to lesser passing options. With Gomez out, Eller has had chances now and again to get top billing and has taken that as a vote of confidence, it seems.
5) Money in Molson pocket
Want to know what pleases owners as much as wins: money. Gomez's injury compensation has probably provided as much revenue for the Molsons as a short playoff run, and without the need to cancel the April trip to the best golf resorts in the Carolinas. An owner in a good mood is an owner more likely to be lenient about that other business objective.
It's been my opinion from the start that this Habs team was on the bubble. In the summer, I noted some very important assumptions that people were making about Price, Subban and Plekanec among others that would have to align for the expectations to really come to fruition.
I wrote this about Gomez, but I could have written it about Markov. The notion is that injuries, whoever has been affected, have affected our ability to judge this team properly. There is sufficient doubt now that what we saw is what we could have seen, and so the evaluation of the GM's work is not realistic.
I don't mean to pass judgment on the GM myself or any of his isolated decisions. I merely wished to highlight how in this case an injury has worked out quite nicely for the guy.
Friday, December 02, 2011
Markov More Rest Days
Whatever happened between a full practice earlier this week and a plane landing in Southern California, it has led Andrei Markov to question his recovery.
From behind the iron curtain of Canadiens PR, we today get the information that Markov was in LA to get a second opinion on his knee. A second opinion that apparently expressed itself first with the need for further rest.
There's lots of reasons to panic, but not many good ones.
If you were happy to see Markov take the safe approach to return, you should still be happy with this new news. If you were hoping Markov's return would turn a non-playoff team to Cup contender, you should reconsider your evaluations anyway. And if you're worried that the Canadiens players may not trust the medical opinions they get from their own staff, then you worry too much.
If Markov needs the rest he should take it. If he feels a tweak, it's better he doesn't ignore anything, but continue to rest and strengthen. This lesson he learned from his return a year ago, a return he completed on the medical advice he may now be questioning.
And on the team that doesn't seem to be very forthcoming with all this information? I don't share the opinion that they owe us this transparency because we pay to watch games (either in tickets or cable subscriptions). This information, while it may delight a few fans is not being concealed for those purposes. It is currency that the team owns that if squandered could hurt the organization in many ways (I think of trades in particular).
As Markov rests, I suggest we all take a rest with him. Until he steps on the ice, don't expect him back. That's his approach, let's make it ours.
From behind the iron curtain of Canadiens PR, we today get the information that Markov was in LA to get a second opinion on his knee. A second opinion that apparently expressed itself first with the need for further rest.
There's lots of reasons to panic, but not many good ones.
If you were happy to see Markov take the safe approach to return, you should still be happy with this new news. If you were hoping Markov's return would turn a non-playoff team to Cup contender, you should reconsider your evaluations anyway. And if you're worried that the Canadiens players may not trust the medical opinions they get from their own staff, then you worry too much.
If Markov needs the rest he should take it. If he feels a tweak, it's better he doesn't ignore anything, but continue to rest and strengthen. This lesson he learned from his return a year ago, a return he completed on the medical advice he may now be questioning.
And on the team that doesn't seem to be very forthcoming with all this information? I don't share the opinion that they owe us this transparency because we pay to watch games (either in tickets or cable subscriptions). This information, while it may delight a few fans is not being concealed for those purposes. It is currency that the team owns that if squandered could hurt the organization in many ways (I think of trades in particular).
As Markov rests, I suggest we all take a rest with him. Until he steps on the ice, don't expect him back. That's his approach, let's make it ours.
Friday, November 26, 2010
Andrei Who?
Nearly two weeks on from Markov's injury against the Carolina Hurricanes and the storm of attention has all but disappeared.
What started on the next day with know-it-all reports from RDS and Team 990 "medical experts" has all but dried up. There's no speculation. there's hardly any news. It's so far off the radar that I didn't notice Habs Inside/Out even re-reporting the TSN story of Markov's status.
It leaves one wondering if Montreal is already asking Andrei who?
I certainly am not. And I look to reports at least once a day to check in on the general's condition. For I understand that although the team will have nice streaks in his absence, as they have done twice this season now, that players as multi-talented as Andrei Markov aren't simply replaced.
The current replacement strategy is working well, and Picard is a better fit than MAB. However, we mustn't forget how we fret every year when Hamrlik runs out of steam, or how fatigue catches up with the group.
Encouraging news
The encouraging news for Habs fans is this: if Markov needed surgery, he'd be having it. The very fact he needs more evaluation is the glimmer of hope in this catastrophic loss. Someone doesn't think surgery is necessary: doctor, player, other.
While it doesn't really matter whether Jacques Martin has ruled anything out or not, it does matter that Markov isn't quick to surgery as some players might be. His determination (and that hyperbaric chamber) is what got him back so quickly after the last two injuries, and it will be the most important factor this time too.
While that is encouraging short term, we can't comment on the long-term implication of this knee thing without some detail. No one has that. If he needs surgery and plays through, there could be argument that his career would be in jeopardy (not what we want). In terms of contract, it's a spanner in the works too. The Canadiens will likely have to get a bit creative with a hedged bet on his return to full health rather than risk losing the best player they have developed in a full 20 years.
What started on the next day with know-it-all reports from RDS and Team 990 "medical experts" has all but dried up. There's no speculation. there's hardly any news. It's so far off the radar that I didn't notice Habs Inside/Out even re-reporting the TSN story of Markov's status.
It leaves one wondering if Montreal is already asking Andrei who?
I certainly am not. And I look to reports at least once a day to check in on the general's condition. For I understand that although the team will have nice streaks in his absence, as they have done twice this season now, that players as multi-talented as Andrei Markov aren't simply replaced.
The current replacement strategy is working well, and Picard is a better fit than MAB. However, we mustn't forget how we fret every year when Hamrlik runs out of steam, or how fatigue catches up with the group.
Encouraging news
The encouraging news for Habs fans is this: if Markov needed surgery, he'd be having it. The very fact he needs more evaluation is the glimmer of hope in this catastrophic loss. Someone doesn't think surgery is necessary: doctor, player, other.
While it doesn't really matter whether Jacques Martin has ruled anything out or not, it does matter that Markov isn't quick to surgery as some players might be. His determination (and that hyperbaric chamber) is what got him back so quickly after the last two injuries, and it will be the most important factor this time too.
While that is encouraging short term, we can't comment on the long-term implication of this knee thing without some detail. No one has that. If he needs surgery and plays through, there could be argument that his career would be in jeopardy (not what we want). In terms of contract, it's a spanner in the works too. The Canadiens will likely have to get a bit creative with a hedged bet on his return to full health rather than risk losing the best player they have developed in a full 20 years.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Markov's Return
How The Habs Must Shuffle
As I excitedly tweeted yesterday, Markov will be back. RDS and just about everyone else is saying it will be tonight vs. Streit and the might Islanders.
It could not come at a better time. With the Canadiens on the road, their struggle to return to winning will be met with less all around angst and ire than it might have in the confines of Centre Bell. Markov can adjust and find his legs in time to be the returning hero the baying mass expects by the New Year's return home.
In the face of this return, it is natural to get excited. Still, many issue caution, patience. Yet, the reluctance to pin too much hop on Markov's return, is in my opinion, taking things too far the other way.
Now I am not saying that Andrei will come in and eclipse the performance of every player from either team as he sometimes would in full health. However, let's remember what this means in practical terms: a healthy Markov returns to join the 5 other healthy D, bumping one of Bergeron, Gill or Mara to the kerb. Achilles tendon r not, that's an upgrade for this team. Achilles tendon or not, Markov's passes are still several orders of magnitude more accurate than any, which means standing still he's a massive improvement at 6th Dman.
As it's been so long, let's just remember who Markov is (as per the season preview):
Andrei Markov
Some things to note from Andrei's stats:
1) Offensive explosion
The last 3 years show the continued progression of Andrei Markov into the ranks of elite offensive defencemen. In fact, his 171 points over that span are second best in the NHL – lagging behind only Nicklas Lidstrom.
(Only Bergeron has come close in this department for the Habs, and off the PP, he's been less helpful. Barring passing amnesia, Markov's impact should be tangible)
2) Defensive steadiness
Not quite so elite in preventing goals, and perhaps the reason he never gets a Norris nod. Andrei's plus/minus is virtually neutral. As mentioned, most of his points do tend to come when he has been running the best PP in the league, so those ones don't appear in the black ledger. Even so, it might be nice to see Andrei escape the mediocrity of all those GA at ES and put up a big juicy +/- like that guy ahead of him in the points race.
(As I said, better than the guy who sits, so a positive contribution in the less minuses end of things too)
3) Takeaways, not hits
Those takeaway numbers may not mean anything to you, but you should know that they are very high. Last season, Markov was third in the league for Dmen in takeaways, as he was the year before. Three seasons ago, he was the best defender in that regard. This is because Markov prefers the poke check to the body check – and when you consider his partner, he makes a good case for the more subtle form of defence.
(My goodness how we've missed this. Maybe not tonight, but some time in the next couple of weeks you'll all be reminded of how a team really prevents itself getting pinned down for minutes at a time)
Who should Markov play with?
Those of you who can remember the preseason through all the tears that have transpired, will recall that I tried to rationally look at lines and pairings in an ideal, injury-free lineup. The way I did this was to trawl some data that many individuals collect and put on the internet and do some sums.
Basically, on last year's data I was able to broadly see whether a player made his partner better or worse offensively and defensively. I was also able to see what kind of partner (style) each player seamed to thrive with, or seemed to struggle with.
At that time, I selected Spacek for a number of reasons. Firstly, Markov played better with players who skated than with big lumbering men (including his usual partner). What seemed to let him be at his best is actually playing with a player more like himself, who can dart around and make a good quick pass – covering more ice with movement as opposed to mass. That for me ruled out O'Byrne and Gill right away, and based on the stats from when they played together, Hamrlik too.
I can see from the message boards that Martin might be considering Ryan O'Byrne to start with Markov this evening. I think this would be a mistake based on the above.
I wouldn't be so haughty if Jacques himself had not come to the Spacek conclusion himself. But that was his evaluation in October, as they started the season together and played most of the preseason together too.
The worry I suppose from some is that Markov and Spacek together means breaking up the current number one pairing of Hamrlik and Spacek. However, these two, while consistent aren't blowing anyone away, as they clock about 2.4 GA/60 - which also happens to be the team average on what I think we'd all agree has been an underwhelming defensive outfit so far. Breaking this combo up, therefore, should not be something to lament. it would be progress for the team, and progress hopefully for Spacek.
Incidentally, Hamrlik is not like Markov. He likes playing with a big guy. What's more, he's been excellent all along with O'Byrne - this season and last (ES and PK). If O'Byrne is to be deployed with a top pairing, it surely must be with Hamrlik.
Luxury goods
Markov's comeback has more implications for the team than simply first pairing conundrums. It also brings about a potential log-jam of 8 defencemen on the team. One question is who might sit out. Another, considering it possible that 7 or even 8 Dmen could be dressed per game, is how many luxury items can the Canadiens afford to carry?
We already carry a fighter we don't use (or need), forwards who are doing apprenticeships in lifting the puck, and two young goalies still learning the ropes. When it comes to winning games, we are starting to run out of place for functional parts to fill the roles. Can we thus afford to play a defender whose only use is on the penalty kill and another whose only use is on the PP?
Or, should we be looking to better exploit the all-round ability of 4 or 5 of the other options?
We've all been complaining about this injury so long, it's time for the team to give us the proper ammo we need to back up those arguments on single player value. Let's hope it's a good one tonight.
Allez, Allez. Go Habs Go.
It could not come at a better time. With the Canadiens on the road, their struggle to return to winning will be met with less all around angst and ire than it might have in the confines of Centre Bell. Markov can adjust and find his legs in time to be the returning hero the baying mass expects by the New Year's return home.
In the face of this return, it is natural to get excited. Still, many issue caution, patience. Yet, the reluctance to pin too much hop on Markov's return, is in my opinion, taking things too far the other way.
Now I am not saying that Andrei will come in and eclipse the performance of every player from either team as he sometimes would in full health. However, let's remember what this means in practical terms: a healthy Markov returns to join the 5 other healthy D, bumping one of Bergeron, Gill or Mara to the kerb. Achilles tendon r not, that's an upgrade for this team. Achilles tendon or not, Markov's passes are still several orders of magnitude more accurate than any, which means standing still he's a massive improvement at 6th Dman.
As it's been so long, let's just remember who Markov is (as per the season preview):
Andrei Markov
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | Hits/60 | BkS/60 | GvA/60 | TkA/60 | Gv:Tk | PIM |
| 08-09 (MTL) | 78 | 12 | 52 | 64 | -2 | 1.91 | 3.47 | 3.21 | 1.87 | -1.34 | 36 |
| 07-08 (MTL) | 82 | 16 | 42 | 58 | +1 | 1.73 | 3.72 | 2.70 | 1.76 | -0.94 | 63 |
| 06-07 (MTL) | 77 | 6 | 43 | 49 | +2 | 1.21 | 3.79 | 2.77 | 2.39 | -0.38 | 56 |
| Even-strength profile | |
 |
|
Some things to note from Andrei's stats:
1) Offensive explosion
The last 3 years show the continued progression of Andrei Markov into the ranks of elite offensive defencemen. In fact, his 171 points over that span are second best in the NHL – lagging behind only Nicklas Lidstrom.
(Only Bergeron has come close in this department for the Habs, and off the PP, he's been less helpful. Barring passing amnesia, Markov's impact should be tangible)
2) Defensive steadiness
Not quite so elite in preventing goals, and perhaps the reason he never gets a Norris nod. Andrei's plus/minus is virtually neutral. As mentioned, most of his points do tend to come when he has been running the best PP in the league, so those ones don't appear in the black ledger. Even so, it might be nice to see Andrei escape the mediocrity of all those GA at ES and put up a big juicy +/- like that guy ahead of him in the points race.
(As I said, better than the guy who sits, so a positive contribution in the less minuses end of things too)
3) Takeaways, not hits
Those takeaway numbers may not mean anything to you, but you should know that they are very high. Last season, Markov was third in the league for Dmen in takeaways, as he was the year before. Three seasons ago, he was the best defender in that regard. This is because Markov prefers the poke check to the body check – and when you consider his partner, he makes a good case for the more subtle form of defence.
(My goodness how we've missed this. Maybe not tonight, but some time in the next couple of weeks you'll all be reminded of how a team really prevents itself getting pinned down for minutes at a time)
Who should Markov play with?
Those of you who can remember the preseason through all the tears that have transpired, will recall that I tried to rationally look at lines and pairings in an ideal, injury-free lineup. The way I did this was to trawl some data that many individuals collect and put on the internet and do some sums.
Basically, on last year's data I was able to broadly see whether a player made his partner better or worse offensively and defensively. I was also able to see what kind of partner (style) each player seamed to thrive with, or seemed to struggle with.
| Pairing #1 | Effect O/D | |
| D – Andrei Markov |  |
|
| D – Jaroslav Spacek |  |
|
At that time, I selected Spacek for a number of reasons. Firstly, Markov played better with players who skated than with big lumbering men (including his usual partner). What seemed to let him be at his best is actually playing with a player more like himself, who can dart around and make a good quick pass – covering more ice with movement as opposed to mass. That for me ruled out O'Byrne and Gill right away, and based on the stats from when they played together, Hamrlik too.
I can see from the message boards that Martin might be considering Ryan O'Byrne to start with Markov this evening. I think this would be a mistake based on the above.
I wouldn't be so haughty if Jacques himself had not come to the Spacek conclusion himself. But that was his evaluation in October, as they started the season together and played most of the preseason together too.
The worry I suppose from some is that Markov and Spacek together means breaking up the current number one pairing of Hamrlik and Spacek. However, these two, while consistent aren't blowing anyone away, as they clock about 2.4 GA/60 - which also happens to be the team average on what I think we'd all agree has been an underwhelming defensive outfit so far. Breaking this combo up, therefore, should not be something to lament. it would be progress for the team, and progress hopefully for Spacek.
Incidentally, Hamrlik is not like Markov. He likes playing with a big guy. What's more, he's been excellent all along with O'Byrne - this season and last (ES and PK). If O'Byrne is to be deployed with a top pairing, it surely must be with Hamrlik.
Luxury goods
Markov's comeback has more implications for the team than simply first pairing conundrums. It also brings about a potential log-jam of 8 defencemen on the team. One question is who might sit out. Another, considering it possible that 7 or even 8 Dmen could be dressed per game, is how many luxury items can the Canadiens afford to carry?
We already carry a fighter we don't use (or need), forwards who are doing apprenticeships in lifting the puck, and two young goalies still learning the ropes. When it comes to winning games, we are starting to run out of place for functional parts to fill the roles. Can we thus afford to play a defender whose only use is on the penalty kill and another whose only use is on the PP?
Or, should we be looking to better exploit the all-round ability of 4 or 5 of the other options?
We've all been complaining about this injury so long, it's time for the team to give us the proper ammo we need to back up those arguments on single player value. Let's hope it's a good one tonight.
Allez, Allez. Go Habs Go.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Gainey At The Tipping Point: Is Gionta An Injury Too Far?
It's official, Brian Gionta is injured.
According to RDS reports, Gionta will be out for an undetermined length of time.
This injury sends ripples through the whole lineup, meaning a less effective #1 line and PP, to be served up with less effective lines #2-4 and PK. Gionta is the fourth major injury for this team in the young campaign, and the second of serious consequence.
The length of Gionta's injury means everything to me here. If he's out a couple of weeks – fine, we suck it up. If it's a month or more – Gainey has some critical decisions to make, because he will have lost his best defender and his best all-around forward while work continues with a skeleton crew.
You all know how I felt about Gainey replacing Andrei Markov with an offense-only cast-off. Bergeron has replaced one element of the Markov offering while falling excruciatingly short on the 15 other areas of his proficiency. It was never a tolerable situation for me, but now that Gionta is removed from the equation, it is especially unpalatable.
If, in the worst case, Gionta is out for 4-5 weeks, the team could be floundering through. A month from Tuesday would mean 15 games. Should the go just about 0.500, with a generous helping of luck and contribution from the suddenly awakened, the team could still be a playoff outsider at the 36-game mark. Given that they've been a low-scoring sub-500 unit with 8-goal Gionta to this point, one would expect nothing more.
The way I see it, Gainey has played the gamble with wait and see to this point. Now his wait and see is becoming more clear – a struggling team who may struggle more. It speaks to decision time for me.
Where to finish?
There are only two places worth finishing in this league: at the top and at the bottom. To finish the middle, as the Canadiens and Leafs and Oilers can attest to is to live behind the rotation of teams that go from top to bottom, bottom to top.
Playing without Gionta is not the issue here. The issue remains playing without Markov. Playing without Markov and vying for the playoffs with a full team is just about realistic to the less sceptical among us. But playing without Markov on a depleted team who've already dug themselves a hole to get out of? Doesn't that look like a losing battle?
What do I suggest?
The specifics of the moves are beyond me at this point. However, I think Gainey will need to make his decision now before it's too late. Simply put, I propose that he decide that we are vying to be in the top teams (ergo, make a move to help that happen) or that we are vying to be in the bottom teams (ergo, make moves to a) help this happen and b) be in better position for next season).
Going for it at this point, isn't crazy. It is conceivable that a simple addition (through shipping prospects or picks) could land the right player to carry the team through 15 games and bolster what we've been seeing in action when Gionta does return.
The opposite scenario would require some strong will and a more maneuvering, but could turn the Canadiens into a better outfit for next season, just as it worked for the Flyers 3 years ago. Assets like Halak would have to be shopped, as would some players of full and actual value (i.e., not Gomez) – getting a few first rounders this season might make it worthwhile.
I don't know where I want this to end up (top or bottom), but I can tell you that I don't want to stumble into 9th/10th in the East and come into next season with a 2009 Mr. Hockey playing defenceman from Minnesota. Tough decisions lie behind all the successes in this league – I think it's time Gainey stopped putting his off.
Don't you think?
According to RDS reports, Gionta will be out for an undetermined length of time.
This injury sends ripples through the whole lineup, meaning a less effective #1 line and PP, to be served up with less effective lines #2-4 and PK. Gionta is the fourth major injury for this team in the young campaign, and the second of serious consequence.
The length of Gionta's injury means everything to me here. If he's out a couple of weeks – fine, we suck it up. If it's a month or more – Gainey has some critical decisions to make, because he will have lost his best defender and his best all-around forward while work continues with a skeleton crew.
You all know how I felt about Gainey replacing Andrei Markov with an offense-only cast-off. Bergeron has replaced one element of the Markov offering while falling excruciatingly short on the 15 other areas of his proficiency. It was never a tolerable situation for me, but now that Gionta is removed from the equation, it is especially unpalatable.
If, in the worst case, Gionta is out for 4-5 weeks, the team could be floundering through. A month from Tuesday would mean 15 games. Should the go just about 0.500, with a generous helping of luck and contribution from the suddenly awakened, the team could still be a playoff outsider at the 36-game mark. Given that they've been a low-scoring sub-500 unit with 8-goal Gionta to this point, one would expect nothing more.
The way I see it, Gainey has played the gamble with wait and see to this point. Now his wait and see is becoming more clear – a struggling team who may struggle more. It speaks to decision time for me.
Where to finish?
There are only two places worth finishing in this league: at the top and at the bottom. To finish the middle, as the Canadiens and Leafs and Oilers can attest to is to live behind the rotation of teams that go from top to bottom, bottom to top.
Playing without Gionta is not the issue here. The issue remains playing without Markov. Playing without Markov and vying for the playoffs with a full team is just about realistic to the less sceptical among us. But playing without Markov on a depleted team who've already dug themselves a hole to get out of? Doesn't that look like a losing battle?
What do I suggest?
The specifics of the moves are beyond me at this point. However, I think Gainey will need to make his decision now before it's too late. Simply put, I propose that he decide that we are vying to be in the top teams (ergo, make a move to help that happen) or that we are vying to be in the bottom teams (ergo, make moves to a) help this happen and b) be in better position for next season).
Going for it at this point, isn't crazy. It is conceivable that a simple addition (through shipping prospects or picks) could land the right player to carry the team through 15 games and bolster what we've been seeing in action when Gionta does return.
The opposite scenario would require some strong will and a more maneuvering, but could turn the Canadiens into a better outfit for next season, just as it worked for the Flyers 3 years ago. Assets like Halak would have to be shopped, as would some players of full and actual value (i.e., not Gomez) – getting a few first rounders this season might make it worthwhile.
I don't know where I want this to end up (top or bottom), but I can tell you that I don't want to stumble into 9th/10th in the East and come into next season with a 2009 Mr. Hockey playing defenceman from Minnesota. Tough decisions lie behind all the successes in this league – I think it's time Gainey stopped putting his off.
Don't you think?
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Learning To Live Without Markov
As the game unfolded the other night against Tampa, it marked the 16th game of the season that we had begun without our all-star Andrei Markov. It may not sound like much, but it's the first time since Andrei made the NHL grade that he has missed more than 15 games in a single season.
In the past sometimes, it seemed like an injury to Markov was a one-way ticket to losing streak. However, this time around, the Canadiens have done an OK job of battling for points and scrounging some wins. As we descend into the next 30 games without Andrei, I thought I'd take a glance at some of the stats with and without him manning the back line.
Winning and losing
It's sometimes hard to test the value of any given player, because the experiment consists of so many variables. Even with a mere 24 game sample from the regular season and a lone playoff series, I don't think we'd be reaching a false conclusion if we suggested the Canadiens are a much worse outfit without Andrei Markov. Really the stats speak for themselves:
24 games, 5 wins, 19 losses, 13 points. It's not flattering for the rest of the guys is it? Certainly when you compare that record to the record with him in the lineup over the same period (168-107-30 for 366 points).
If you pro-rate the stats to an 82-game schedule the Habs from 2005-09 without Markov would have been a pitiful 44 point outfit (17-55-10) – not seen since the days of expansion newbies and Pittsburgh dogging it. With him in the lineup, their pro-rated points total would be a solid 96-point group (45-29-6).
But the impact goes well beyond the wins and losses. As you can see from the limited sample, what has tended to happen when Markov has been missing has shown his talent at both ends of the ice. In the 24 previous games, goals for dropped by one full goal per 60 minutes, while goals against rose by an equally remarkable 0.7 per game.
Special teams
Being that Markov is an all-star who perennially flirts with the scoring lead among defenceman, it's perhaps not surprising to see a drop in PP efficiency wen he's not around to distribute. But take a look at the PK in his absence – a reminder of his second personality:
With the best overall PP in both 2006-07 and 2007-08, and a pretty decent scoring clip before and after, it's pretty safe to say that Markov is one of the premier QBs of the circuit. In fact, you get 5 PPs with Markov in a game, you'd be disappointed not to score a goal.
The Canadiens, however, have been blessed with some insulation for Markov on the PP at times – Souray and Streit, for example in 2006-07 – so his absence has cost but not too too drastically. Glance at the PK situation without Markov, though, and get an idea of what he means at the defensive end. Whether it be quick movement and anticipation, or using his passing skills to find the way out of the zone, his skills on the PK have been missed to the tune of nearly 12.5%. If you translate that to a whole season – with about 360 penalties – you're talking about 45 goals.
I suppose a forward moving to the point is much less of a downgrade than having a 5th defender playing with regularity on a penalty kill.
2009-10
This season, Markov was lost to serious injury a mere 50 minutes in. Given our understanding of the previous 24 games without him, there was understandable gloom at the time. I certainly felt some major doubts.
If you look across the stats, you can see that the PP is suffering as much if not more than it has ever done, but that goalscoring is holding truer. You can see that PK is sub-standard, but still within a few goals of the Markov standard and the overall goals against have been holding closer as well. You can fret about each of those, especially compared to league averages. Nonetheless, here we stand 17 games in, and 6 weeks closer to February, with 16 points from 17 games. Not great, perhaps, but a minor miracle given the precedent.
I think it speaks a little bit to some of the moves that were made over the summer (many of which have received a proper thrashing from fans), specifically:
1) Gionta
He's been a goalscorer from unconventional plays which has helped and a solid contributor up front. What's more, he's been able to tip the ice in the Habs favour by a large margin thus far.
2) Spacek
I said I liked the signing at the time, but I didn't really know what to expect. Well, he's no Markov on the PP (not even close), but he eats minutes and has been on the ice for 22 more chances at even strength than he has allowed, and 41 overall.
3) Letting Bouillon go
A hard move to put through given his popularity and his familiarity with the RDS crew, but one that needed to be made. Last season he was on the ice for a GA every 20 minutes he played. Had he been under contract as a #6 this year, that'd be a goal a game. I don't want to disparage a player I loved, but I think his last legs were correctly recognised.
As I said, there weren't miracles here, just quiet steps in the general direction. Could a team really be as bad as the Habs have been without Markov in the past over a sustained period? Hard to say. I don't think after the 0-7-1 end to last season, anyone would have asked to put it to the test.
I think if anything good is to come from this injury to Andrei it will be the shedding of an over-reliance on a single player in all aspects of play. Perhaps when he comes back he can be introduced gradually, rather than straight into 30 minutes a night.
Who misses Markov most?
Finally, I wanted to note that though we all miss Markov, none might miss him more than Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak. If only for his poise on the PK alone, Carey might have added 100 points to his sub-standard PK save rating, and he and Halak might have been able to count on zone clearances actually happening.
In the past sometimes, it seemed like an injury to Markov was a one-way ticket to losing streak. However, this time around, the Canadiens have done an OK job of battling for points and scrounging some wins. As we descend into the next 30 games without Andrei, I thought I'd take a glance at some of the stats with and without him manning the back line.
Winning and losing
It's sometimes hard to test the value of any given player, because the experiment consists of so many variables. Even with a mere 24 game sample from the regular season and a lone playoff series, I don't think we'd be reaching a false conclusion if we suggested the Canadiens are a much worse outfit without Andrei Markov. Really the stats speak for themselves:
24 games, 5 wins, 19 losses, 13 points. It's not flattering for the rest of the guys is it? Certainly when you compare that record to the record with him in the lineup over the same period (168-107-30 for 366 points).
If you pro-rate the stats to an 82-game schedule the Habs from 2005-09 without Markov would have been a pitiful 44 point outfit (17-55-10) – not seen since the days of expansion newbies and Pittsburgh dogging it. With him in the lineup, their pro-rated points total would be a solid 96-point group (45-29-6).
But the impact goes well beyond the wins and losses. As you can see from the limited sample, what has tended to happen when Markov has been missing has shown his talent at both ends of the ice. In the 24 previous games, goals for dropped by one full goal per 60 minutes, while goals against rose by an equally remarkable 0.7 per game.
Special teams
Being that Markov is an all-star who perennially flirts with the scoring lead among defenceman, it's perhaps not surprising to see a drop in PP efficiency wen he's not around to distribute. But take a look at the PK in his absence – a reminder of his second personality:
With the best overall PP in both 2006-07 and 2007-08, and a pretty decent scoring clip before and after, it's pretty safe to say that Markov is one of the premier QBs of the circuit. In fact, you get 5 PPs with Markov in a game, you'd be disappointed not to score a goal.
The Canadiens, however, have been blessed with some insulation for Markov on the PP at times – Souray and Streit, for example in 2006-07 – so his absence has cost but not too too drastically. Glance at the PK situation without Markov, though, and get an idea of what he means at the defensive end. Whether it be quick movement and anticipation, or using his passing skills to find the way out of the zone, his skills on the PK have been missed to the tune of nearly 12.5%. If you translate that to a whole season – with about 360 penalties – you're talking about 45 goals.
I suppose a forward moving to the point is much less of a downgrade than having a 5th defender playing with regularity on a penalty kill.
2009-10
This season, Markov was lost to serious injury a mere 50 minutes in. Given our understanding of the previous 24 games without him, there was understandable gloom at the time. I certainly felt some major doubts.
If you look across the stats, you can see that the PP is suffering as much if not more than it has ever done, but that goalscoring is holding truer. You can see that PK is sub-standard, but still within a few goals of the Markov standard and the overall goals against have been holding closer as well. You can fret about each of those, especially compared to league averages. Nonetheless, here we stand 17 games in, and 6 weeks closer to February, with 16 points from 17 games. Not great, perhaps, but a minor miracle given the precedent.
I think it speaks a little bit to some of the moves that were made over the summer (many of which have received a proper thrashing from fans), specifically:
1) Gionta
He's been a goalscorer from unconventional plays which has helped and a solid contributor up front. What's more, he's been able to tip the ice in the Habs favour by a large margin thus far.
2) Spacek
I said I liked the signing at the time, but I didn't really know what to expect. Well, he's no Markov on the PP (not even close), but he eats minutes and has been on the ice for 22 more chances at even strength than he has allowed, and 41 overall.
3) Letting Bouillon go
A hard move to put through given his popularity and his familiarity with the RDS crew, but one that needed to be made. Last season he was on the ice for a GA every 20 minutes he played. Had he been under contract as a #6 this year, that'd be a goal a game. I don't want to disparage a player I loved, but I think his last legs were correctly recognised.
As I said, there weren't miracles here, just quiet steps in the general direction. Could a team really be as bad as the Habs have been without Markov in the past over a sustained period? Hard to say. I don't think after the 0-7-1 end to last season, anyone would have asked to put it to the test.
I think if anything good is to come from this injury to Andrei it will be the shedding of an over-reliance on a single player in all aspects of play. Perhaps when he comes back he can be introduced gradually, rather than straight into 30 minutes a night.
Who misses Markov most?
Finally, I wanted to note that though we all miss Markov, none might miss him more than Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak. If only for his poise on the PK alone, Carey might have added 100 points to his sub-standard PK save rating, and he and Halak might have been able to count on zone clearances actually happening.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
Play of the Week
RDS is reporting that some sharp-shooting Habs player has finally managed to hit the target.
It happened in practice, mind you, but the Canadiens recipient of play of the week (unnamed in the report) hit Hal Gill in the foot. It appears that the shot was both accurate and forceful enough to sideline the big galoot. Mathieu Carle will be replacing him.
Meanwhile...
Things that won't win next week's play of the week:
Jacques Martin playing the Mathieu-Marc combo together while Gil recovers. Hopefully the personnel-management challenged coach will find a way to let us experience addition by subtraction...
It happened in practice, mind you, but the Canadiens recipient of play of the week (unnamed in the report) hit Hal Gill in the foot. It appears that the shot was both accurate and forceful enough to sideline the big galoot. Mathieu Carle will be replacing him.
Meanwhile...
Things that won't win next week's play of the week:
Jacques Martin playing the Mathieu-Marc combo together while Gil recovers. Hopefully the personnel-management challenged coach will find a way to let us experience addition by subtraction...
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
The Markov And Schneider Saga
Very ambiguous reports have been circulating about the injuries to the Canadiens two PP-point men, Andrei Markov and Mathieu Schneider. The best reports tell it like it is (that is we know little), the worst are filling in the injuries, treatments and prognoses all themselves.
It's hard to know what to think and believe, but one has to be sceptical of anything but reports directly from the team. Reports such as RDS's 3-4 week recovery time for Markov are easy to believe, yet as unsubstantiated as me telling you Markov will be back for the Pittsburgh game. RDS will claim a source, but let's not forget that old chestnut gets trotted out every time Lecavalier or Gaborik are headed to Montreal. Let's not forget the journalistic integrity they strive to achieve is slightly below the standard of discussion forum poster (see the Kovalev on the way out story they posted within minutes of it breaking on a website, without checking the source), or perhaps remember the desperation that caused them to fabricate rumours about players in substance abuse programs when they were simply rehabbing. Petty, petty stuff.
Pat Hickey and colleagues at the Gazette are more transparent about their coverage when they say things like:
They remain restrained for the moment, but are bursting at the seams to be able to write the season off with a solid prognosis.
The media subplot
The subplot that encompasses the medias tears over Gainey's secrecy is more amusing than watching a Canadiens PP at the moment. It seems the pretenders are being separated from those who have actual material and thoughts to write about, as their total reliance on quotes is revealed. Some experienced journalists delay their exposure by making a story of their frustration. The best just move on to other topics until the time the reports are forthcoming. RDS having speculated like drunken bankers on 12 hours daily coverage of the Habs don't even earn the tag journalism the vast majority of the time.
NHL and Habs policy being observed
The NHL policy is that teams don't need to divulge details of injuries to their players. Back in January, when the rumour mongers were awhir, Gainey let it be known that Carey Price's injury was to his ankle and Georges Laraque's was his back.
From that point, it was decided that team policy would be that if an injury is short-term, it would be kept confidential, but anything longer than a few days would be disclosed. The catch is that if the player doesn't object to the speculation, the Canadiens are happy to go with upper, lower or any combination of the two vagaries. Apparently, this policy was a decided at a meeting between Carbonneau, general manager Bob Gainey, assistant GM Julien Brisebois, head therapist Graham Rynbend and the team's media relations staff. The media may not like it, but they have no say (besides their wild speculation)...
The real issue – winning
Regardless of who plays and who lies under the surgeon's knife, one thing hasn't changed. If the Canadiens want to win the Cup this year, they must find a way to win at least 16 more games this season. If they are to hope for any reinforcements, it would sure help if they won on Thursday to buy some time.
The question is, without Markov and Schneider (and Lang and Sergei and Bouillon) is it feasible?
The answer has to be yes. Why? Because two of the Columbus Bluejackets, St. Louis Blues and Nashville Predators will be playing in 2 weeks time. If those talent-bereft lineups can win games, so can anyone. Those three teams would love to get a sniff of a player like Andrei Markov, or to have players like Markov, Tanguay, Kovalev and Koivu all in the same year.
But teams with less talent can still beat teams with more. It is the reason to watch games. For the Canadiens, it will certainly take some doing (since they've been relying on Markov's talents for a while), but is not unattainable. I'm not writing anyone off or anyone out just yet...
It's hard to know what to think and believe, but one has to be sceptical of anything but reports directly from the team. Reports such as RDS's 3-4 week recovery time for Markov are easy to believe, yet as unsubstantiated as me telling you Markov will be back for the Pittsburgh game. RDS will claim a source, but let's not forget that old chestnut gets trotted out every time Lecavalier or Gaborik are headed to Montreal. Let's not forget the journalistic integrity they strive to achieve is slightly below the standard of discussion forum poster (see the Kovalev on the way out story they posted within minutes of it breaking on a website, without checking the source), or perhaps remember the desperation that caused them to fabricate rumours about players in substance abuse programs when they were simply rehabbing. Petty, petty stuff.
Pat Hickey and colleagues at the Gazette are more transparent about their coverage when they say things like:
Markov has an upper-body injury, unless he has a lower-body injury. RDS reported Monday that the defenceman will be out for three weeks, while the Canadiens will concede only that he is out indefinitely with an upper- or lower-body injury, which is as indefinite as you can get.
They remain restrained for the moment, but are bursting at the seams to be able to write the season off with a solid prognosis.
The media subplot
The subplot that encompasses the medias tears over Gainey's secrecy is more amusing than watching a Canadiens PP at the moment. It seems the pretenders are being separated from those who have actual material and thoughts to write about, as their total reliance on quotes is revealed. Some experienced journalists delay their exposure by making a story of their frustration. The best just move on to other topics until the time the reports are forthcoming. RDS having speculated like drunken bankers on 12 hours daily coverage of the Habs don't even earn the tag journalism the vast majority of the time.
NHL and Habs policy being observed
The NHL policy is that teams don't need to divulge details of injuries to their players. Back in January, when the rumour mongers were awhir, Gainey let it be known that Carey Price's injury was to his ankle and Georges Laraque's was his back.
From that point, it was decided that team policy would be that if an injury is short-term, it would be kept confidential, but anything longer than a few days would be disclosed. The catch is that if the player doesn't object to the speculation, the Canadiens are happy to go with upper, lower or any combination of the two vagaries. Apparently, this policy was a decided at a meeting between Carbonneau, general manager Bob Gainey, assistant GM Julien Brisebois, head therapist Graham Rynbend and the team's media relations staff. The media may not like it, but they have no say (besides their wild speculation)...
The real issue – winning
Regardless of who plays and who lies under the surgeon's knife, one thing hasn't changed. If the Canadiens want to win the Cup this year, they must find a way to win at least 16 more games this season. If they are to hope for any reinforcements, it would sure help if they won on Thursday to buy some time.
The question is, without Markov and Schneider (and Lang and Sergei and Bouillon) is it feasible?
The answer has to be yes. Why? Because two of the Columbus Bluejackets, St. Louis Blues and Nashville Predators will be playing in 2 weeks time. If those talent-bereft lineups can win games, so can anyone. Those three teams would love to get a sniff of a player like Andrei Markov, or to have players like Markov, Tanguay, Kovalev and Koivu all in the same year.
But teams with less talent can still beat teams with more. It is the reason to watch games. For the Canadiens, it will certainly take some doing (since they've been relying on Markov's talents for a while), but is not unattainable. I'm not writing anyone off or anyone out just yet...
Monday, March 16, 2009
The NHL Salary Floor Cheats
The Sorry Case Of The New York Islanders
I know it's a strong headline. The New York Islanders are not cheating, merely taking the piss. They are not breaking the rules, per se; but could not be accused of operating with the true spirit of sportsmanship in mind.
After watching that game the other night, with barely a recognisable name on the gamesheet, I started wondering how it was the Islanders were even meeting the obligation of the salary floor. It turns out they don't, or at least they shouldn't given the way things have gone for them. They squeak it out on loopholes.
Initially, I felt anger towards the Islanders (and I would feel a heck of a lot more if I was an NHL-able body like Mike Johnson, for example), but really they are only playing within the rules set out for them.
I think the responsibility has to lay at the feet of the NHL, who have implemented and policed a salary floor, but can let it turn into the nonsense that the Islanders have been pulling this season.
New York Islanders under the floor
By my rudimentary calculations, if the Islanders had declared all the players that actually did have a long-term injury to actually have a long-term injury (instead of broken leg – day-to-day), then they would be in serious cap floor trouble.
If bonuses are hit, they are looking at $37.75 million. If not, as low as $32.8 million. Pretty low considering the salary floor for the NHL stands at $40.3 million for every other team...
Let's face it, the Islanders have tanked this season, and they did it from the outset. They signed veterans they knew were overpriced to make the floor knowing that they would trade them when the mandated salary obligation was met. They even tossed in bonuses which counted against the cap, but which they must have known would never have to be paid out:
What's more, they never declared certain players to have long-term injury, so they wouldn't have to pay, or as it happens, compete in the NHL.
The worst thing about all this is that instead of being encouraged to do otherwise, the rules will encourage more teams to do the same in the future. The model set forth by the trailblazing New York Islanders of 2008-09 is a blueprint for how to get a top 5 draft pick without having to pay for a full NHL roster.
Ghost players
Remember the punishment of having to pay Jassen Cullimore and Tony Salmelainen for 2 years because we bought out their contracts we never wanted? Bob Gainey should have traded these two to the Islanders or the Kings a couple of years ago – their buyout contracts would be gold dust.
The Islanders, of course, have their own ghost players in Alexei Yashin to the tune of two odd million a year and Shawn Bates at $400,000 annually.
Veteran bonuses
Over the age of 35, player bonuses are to count towards the cap. One can clearly see how this clause may be exploited by the Nashvilles, LAs and NYIs of the league.
"Doug Weight, want your biggest contract in years even though you're in full decline? The condition, of course is that you take it in bonuses, so when you decline even further we don't actually have to pay you."
This loophole, for the floor-pressed team, is even better than the ghost player (who has to be paid) because the bonuses can be set at such levels that they were never attainable anyway. It's money on the cap that will never have to be spent.
Day-to-day injuries
There is a giant loophole for those wishing to comply without complying with the terms of the NHL Collective bargaining agreement, and it is the long-term injury clause. At the moment, long-term injury requires initiative and paperwork from an NHL team to open up. If Komisarek dislocates a shoulder, the Canadiens management must process some forms to put him on long-term injured reserve and obtain the salary cap freedom allowed when players get injured.
While it boggles the mind that some GMs and their teams don't apply for this at every long-term injury (too busy talking to Eklund about trades he can invent, I guess), the more troubling bit of this arrangement is the way it affects the salary floor.
If a team does not apply for long-term injured reserve for say a player who broke his ankle or a goalie who tore his knee, that player remains on the books for the purposes of the salary cap. This in turn allows a team ice a sub-AHL team and get away with it.
Is it fair enough? Maybe so. Even so, it leaves a sour taste in my mouth.
What should the NHL do?
It's not that clear.
The first suggestion I would put forward would be to evaluate why they ever put a salary floor in place at all. It was purported at the time that the floor would be a method to foster competition, by ensuring that small market teams would sign players of star calibre – I think the Islanders have shown that this is contingent on the team's and not the league's or the fans' definition of star (Guerin, Weight, Comrie) and that, even then, there are plenty of ways around it.
Beyond excising the salary floor from the equation altogether, there could be a number of simple tweaks (as I see it) to prevent the Islanders from becoming the model for the other perennial stragglers of the NHL:
a) Count salary buyouts against the cap, but not towards the floor
Counting salary buyouts is meant to be a deterrent to GMs not an incentive. It only makes sense to leave it where it deters and remove it from the equation where it does not.
b) Count veteran bonuses against the cap, but not towards the floor
Similarly, the thinking behind counting veteran bonuses towards the cap was to prevent teams from stocking up on vets and paying them only contingent on their play. It was never intended to make Doug Weight a $4.5 million player even when his paid salary is less than $2 million.
c) Make LTI semi-automatic
It is one thing to allow teams flexibility to declare LTI for the upper level (if they want it). But entirely another to allow Rick DiPietro (out for the season in Jaunary) to count against the cap as if he were playing. The Islanders are not paying his salary (unless they have really bad insurance), so why should they get credit as if they were. Perhaps it could be as simple as an automatic LTI kicking in after 10 games are missed and going forward from there.
One or all of these would make some difference. And, to be honest, merely addressing the situation would be a positive step showing some concern for the competition they touted a few years ago.
I suspect that the Islanders would have something to say about the whole situation too, though. Particularly how injuries have hurt their chances, the attendance and their bottom line. It would be quite a convincing sob story if one ever believed that having Sillinger, Freddy Meyer and Brendan Witt would have turned the whole situation around for them. One point that they may bring up could have a lot of credence though, and that would be revenue sharing.
The current system in place in the NHL disqualifies the Islanders because of their geographic position. It conveniently fails to account for the immediate competition for hockey dollars in the "huge" hockey market. James Mirtle thinks the Islanders may deserve some help, after this whole fiasco, I find it hard not to agree.
After all that, does anyone else come to the conclusion that we really really messed up in losing twice to this team. I mean both teams seem to have had the same goal to drive towards – an Islanders loss at all costs.
After watching that game the other night, with barely a recognisable name on the gamesheet, I started wondering how it was the Islanders were even meeting the obligation of the salary floor. It turns out they don't, or at least they shouldn't given the way things have gone for them. They squeak it out on loopholes.
Initially, I felt anger towards the Islanders (and I would feel a heck of a lot more if I was an NHL-able body like Mike Johnson, for example), but really they are only playing within the rules set out for them.
I think the responsibility has to lay at the feet of the NHL, who have implemented and policed a salary floor, but can let it turn into the nonsense that the Islanders have been pulling this season.
New York Islanders under the floor
By my rudimentary calculations, if the Islanders had declared all the players that actually did have a long-term injury to actually have a long-term injury (instead of broken leg – day-to-day), then they would be in serious cap floor trouble.
If bonuses are hit, they are looking at $37.75 million. If not, as low as $32.8 million. Pretty low considering the salary floor for the NHL stands at $40.3 million for every other team...
Let's face it, the Islanders have tanked this season, and they did it from the outset. They signed veterans they knew were overpriced to make the floor knowing that they would trade them when the mandated salary obligation was met. They even tossed in bonuses which counted against the cap, but which they must have known would never have to be paid out:
The Islanders were happy to give the veteran the incentives for two reasons. For starters, they would be properly rewarding Weight if his offensive statistics rebounded closer to his career averages after a 25-point output in 2007-2008. With 21 points (4-17-21) in his first 21 games this season for the Islanders, the move has paid off for both team and player.
But there was additional strategy behind the Weight incentives package. As a player over age 35 and on a one-year deal, those bonuses counted towards the Islanders’ salary cap number. And Weight’s deal - along with the signing of Mark Streit to a deal averaging $4.1 million - took the Islanders above the salary cap “floor” as mandated by the Collective Bargaining Agreement.
What's more, they never declared certain players to have long-term injury, so they wouldn't have to pay, or as it happens, compete in the NHL.
The worst thing about all this is that instead of being encouraged to do otherwise, the rules will encourage more teams to do the same in the future. The model set forth by the trailblazing New York Islanders of 2008-09 is a blueprint for how to get a top 5 draft pick without having to pay for a full NHL roster.
Ghost players
Remember the punishment of having to pay Jassen Cullimore and Tony Salmelainen for 2 years because we bought out their contracts we never wanted? Bob Gainey should have traded these two to the Islanders or the Kings a couple of years ago – their buyout contracts would be gold dust.
The Islanders, of course, have their own ghost players in Alexei Yashin to the tune of two odd million a year and Shawn Bates at $400,000 annually.
Veteran bonuses
Over the age of 35, player bonuses are to count towards the cap. One can clearly see how this clause may be exploited by the Nashvilles, LAs and NYIs of the league.
"Doug Weight, want your biggest contract in years even though you're in full decline? The condition, of course is that you take it in bonuses, so when you decline even further we don't actually have to pay you."
This loophole, for the floor-pressed team, is even better than the ghost player (who has to be paid) because the bonuses can be set at such levels that they were never attainable anyway. It's money on the cap that will never have to be spent.
Day-to-day injuries
There is a giant loophole for those wishing to comply without complying with the terms of the NHL Collective bargaining agreement, and it is the long-term injury clause. At the moment, long-term injury requires initiative and paperwork from an NHL team to open up. If Komisarek dislocates a shoulder, the Canadiens management must process some forms to put him on long-term injured reserve and obtain the salary cap freedom allowed when players get injured.
While it boggles the mind that some GMs and their teams don't apply for this at every long-term injury (too busy talking to Eklund about trades he can invent, I guess), the more troubling bit of this arrangement is the way it affects the salary floor.
If a team does not apply for long-term injured reserve for say a player who broke his ankle or a goalie who tore his knee, that player remains on the books for the purposes of the salary cap. This in turn allows a team ice a sub-AHL team and get away with it.
Is it fair enough? Maybe so. Even so, it leaves a sour taste in my mouth.
What should the NHL do?
It's not that clear.
The first suggestion I would put forward would be to evaluate why they ever put a salary floor in place at all. It was purported at the time that the floor would be a method to foster competition, by ensuring that small market teams would sign players of star calibre – I think the Islanders have shown that this is contingent on the team's and not the league's or the fans' definition of star (Guerin, Weight, Comrie) and that, even then, there are plenty of ways around it.
Beyond excising the salary floor from the equation altogether, there could be a number of simple tweaks (as I see it) to prevent the Islanders from becoming the model for the other perennial stragglers of the NHL:
a) Count salary buyouts against the cap, but not towards the floor
Counting salary buyouts is meant to be a deterrent to GMs not an incentive. It only makes sense to leave it where it deters and remove it from the equation where it does not.
b) Count veteran bonuses against the cap, but not towards the floor
Similarly, the thinking behind counting veteran bonuses towards the cap was to prevent teams from stocking up on vets and paying them only contingent on their play. It was never intended to make Doug Weight a $4.5 million player even when his paid salary is less than $2 million.
c) Make LTI semi-automatic
It is one thing to allow teams flexibility to declare LTI for the upper level (if they want it). But entirely another to allow Rick DiPietro (out for the season in Jaunary) to count against the cap as if he were playing. The Islanders are not paying his salary (unless they have really bad insurance), so why should they get credit as if they were. Perhaps it could be as simple as an automatic LTI kicking in after 10 games are missed and going forward from there.
One or all of these would make some difference. And, to be honest, merely addressing the situation would be a positive step showing some concern for the competition they touted a few years ago.
I suspect that the Islanders would have something to say about the whole situation too, though. Particularly how injuries have hurt their chances, the attendance and their bottom line. It would be quite a convincing sob story if one ever believed that having Sillinger, Freddy Meyer and Brendan Witt would have turned the whole situation around for them. One point that they may bring up could have a lot of credence though, and that would be revenue sharing.
The current system in place in the NHL disqualifies the Islanders because of their geographic position. It conveniently fails to account for the immediate competition for hockey dollars in the "huge" hockey market. James Mirtle thinks the Islanders may deserve some help, after this whole fiasco, I find it hard not to agree.
After all that, does anyone else come to the conclusion that we really really messed up in losing twice to this team. I mean both teams seem to have had the same goal to drive towards – an Islanders loss at all costs.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Gainey's Hands Tied?
Schneider And The Cap
Adding Mathieu to the payroll has certainly confused a lot of people. I have to admit I had to do some reading and a bit of legwork to determine that the Canadiens would be OK with this salary load.
One of the problems is that websites like Cap Central and NHL Numbers do not know what the Canadiens have done in terms of applying for long-term injury allowance. Having done this last night, I now know why they approximate for every team...
I myself am not privy to the information. But to suffice to say, that according to Cap Central before yesterday, we were not in a position to add salary. We did and everyone in the organisation seems just fine with that. It leads me to believe they have processed a bit of paperwork over the season...
Long-term injury (LTI) allowance
The NHL CBA has made it deliberately difficult for GMs in the league to spend the salary space made by injuries to players on their team (if you want to read the actual clauses, download the PDF here and go from p. 226). The reason for this is obvious – Lou Lamoriello and other sly managers would be carrying all kinds of injured players and injuring others as they needed to.
The downside is that teams like Pittsburgh, who started without their 2 main defenders were wary to replace like with like for fear that they would be in a very compromising position come time for Gonchar and Whitney had to return.
The Canadiens, like the Penguins have had long-term injuries to some heavy hitters (salary-wise) this season. Koivu and Tanguay (the highest paid forwards) both missed loads of games; Higgins, Komisraek and Dandenault missed large numbers too; and now Robert Lang's $4 million is virtually off the books for the season.
While the injured player's salary still counts to the cap; what is allowed is spending up to the amount the injured player was making and exceeding the cap by that amount. So if Crosby was injured and the Pens were up against the cap, they could still trade for Ovechkin if they wanted to. What the team cannot do is bank salary for later. So if Koivu and Tanguay are injured for a corresponding ten-game stretch, the Canadiens can apply to replace their pro-rated $11 million for the duration of that time.
We know that the Canadiens did not do this, but they did in fact replace the players. For example, when Mike Komisarek got injured he was not initially replaced, but soon after the Candiens recalled Matt D'Agostini from Hamilton. From my understanding, it should have been alright for the Habs to make D'Agostini a cap freebie, essentially because his salary was absorbed by the overage that Komisarek's created.
Now, as I said, there is some formality to the procedure in that the NHL team must declare intentions and process paperwork. I am not entirely clued in as to how soon this must be done or whether a player once assigned as a replacement to one can then be reassigned to replace another. I am reasonably sure that there is no loophole that would make it possible for, Chris Higgins, to be Mike Komisarek's replacement and for another much cheaper player to be brought up from the minors. I feel this loop-hole if it existed would have been exploited by Brian Burke or someone by now.
So, essentially what you get is a one for one replacement – provided one of the employees of the hockey team can be bothered to do the paperwork. When we had 4 LTIs at the same time, there was certainly the potential to make sure that D'Agostini, Pacioretty, Weber and Chipchura's salaries were not our excess cap space.
Best case scenario
That said, I have worked out a best case scenario without any cheating (I think) – where each LTI is replaced by a minor leaguer whose salary bumps our cap limit by the same amount – essentially making that replacement cap neutral.
Based on this calculation, I would suggest that the Canadiens have already spent just over $38 million dollars, leaving them $18,563,000 or so in cap space for the remaining 25 games.
After that, I did the simpler calculation of pro-rated salary from here on (including Schneider) and came up with 17,590,000. I should note that I have allowed for Lang's salary to make cap neutral space of about $1.22 million extra; and also for Ryan O'Byrne's demotion to be permanent, which saves an additional $290,000.
Toting that up, you can see from my estimates that the Canadiens still have about $974,000 in space, which would still theoretically allow them to add a $3 million player today, or a higher paid player closer to the deadline.
Again, I should note that I did the calculations (for simplicity) on a per-game basis. This will be ball-park right, but salary is calculated daily and so could be off by several thousand if the schedule is more imbalanced than I thought. To be honest, i couldn't have done it the other way so quickly...
I also assumed a lot about player replacements. It is possible, for example, that D'Agostini was not Komisarek's replacement.
In any case, it should give some idea of where we sit.
Brisebois performance clause
Thinking it was enough reward for Brisebois that someone would even pay him to play hockey anymore, i at first assumed that Brisebois' cap hit of $1.5 million!!!! on Cap Central was in error and the $750,000 I remember was correct.
With a little more investigation, I have regrettably come to the conclusion that Brisebois is being paid that much – more than Gorges, Lapierre, Latendresse, Halak and more.
Can any of you tell me what exactly his bonuses are tied to? Is there any hope that he won't reach his conditions?
Dead wood
In doing this, I also found it amazing that Gainey had any maneuverability without the amount of dead wood this team is carrying. In addition to Brisebois's $1.5 milion, there are: the salary offloads from Chicago for Samsonov (totalling more than $760,000 for no one); Laraque at $1.5 million (all of which is down the toilet in my book); Dandenault at $1.725 million and Bouillon at a whopping $1.825 million, respectively (about half of which is overpay, I'd say).
Thank goodness Gainey managed to sign Andrei Kostitsyn for relatively little, and Higgins and Komisarek in the $2 million range. Plekanec still looks like a downright bargain at $1.6 million next to the aforementioned...
Welcome Matt. We look forward to a) a shot at the point on the PP, b) not looking to Brisebois or O'Byrne every game and c) you trying to earn another contract for yourself next year...
One of the problems is that websites like Cap Central and NHL Numbers do not know what the Canadiens have done in terms of applying for long-term injury allowance. Having done this last night, I now know why they approximate for every team...
I myself am not privy to the information. But to suffice to say, that according to Cap Central before yesterday, we were not in a position to add salary. We did and everyone in the organisation seems just fine with that. It leads me to believe they have processed a bit of paperwork over the season...
Long-term injury (LTI) allowance
The NHL CBA has made it deliberately difficult for GMs in the league to spend the salary space made by injuries to players on their team (if you want to read the actual clauses, download the PDF here and go from p. 226). The reason for this is obvious – Lou Lamoriello and other sly managers would be carrying all kinds of injured players and injuring others as they needed to.
The downside is that teams like Pittsburgh, who started without their 2 main defenders were wary to replace like with like for fear that they would be in a very compromising position come time for Gonchar and Whitney had to return.
The Canadiens, like the Penguins have had long-term injuries to some heavy hitters (salary-wise) this season. Koivu and Tanguay (the highest paid forwards) both missed loads of games; Higgins, Komisraek and Dandenault missed large numbers too; and now Robert Lang's $4 million is virtually off the books for the season.
While the injured player's salary still counts to the cap; what is allowed is spending up to the amount the injured player was making and exceeding the cap by that amount. So if Crosby was injured and the Pens were up against the cap, they could still trade for Ovechkin if they wanted to. What the team cannot do is bank salary for later. So if Koivu and Tanguay are injured for a corresponding ten-game stretch, the Canadiens can apply to replace their pro-rated $11 million for the duration of that time.
We know that the Canadiens did not do this, but they did in fact replace the players. For example, when Mike Komisarek got injured he was not initially replaced, but soon after the Candiens recalled Matt D'Agostini from Hamilton. From my understanding, it should have been alright for the Habs to make D'Agostini a cap freebie, essentially because his salary was absorbed by the overage that Komisarek's created.
Now, as I said, there is some formality to the procedure in that the NHL team must declare intentions and process paperwork. I am not entirely clued in as to how soon this must be done or whether a player once assigned as a replacement to one can then be reassigned to replace another. I am reasonably sure that there is no loophole that would make it possible for, Chris Higgins, to be Mike Komisarek's replacement and for another much cheaper player to be brought up from the minors. I feel this loop-hole if it existed would have been exploited by Brian Burke or someone by now.
So, essentially what you get is a one for one replacement – provided one of the employees of the hockey team can be bothered to do the paperwork. When we had 4 LTIs at the same time, there was certainly the potential to make sure that D'Agostini, Pacioretty, Weber and Chipchura's salaries were not our excess cap space.
Best case scenario
That said, I have worked out a best case scenario without any cheating (I think) – where each LTI is replaced by a minor leaguer whose salary bumps our cap limit by the same amount – essentially making that replacement cap neutral.
Based on this calculation, I would suggest that the Canadiens have already spent just over $38 million dollars, leaving them $18,563,000 or so in cap space for the remaining 25 games.
After that, I did the simpler calculation of pro-rated salary from here on (including Schneider) and came up with 17,590,000. I should note that I have allowed for Lang's salary to make cap neutral space of about $1.22 million extra; and also for Ryan O'Byrne's demotion to be permanent, which saves an additional $290,000.
Toting that up, you can see from my estimates that the Canadiens still have about $974,000 in space, which would still theoretically allow them to add a $3 million player today, or a higher paid player closer to the deadline.
Again, I should note that I did the calculations (for simplicity) on a per-game basis. This will be ball-park right, but salary is calculated daily and so could be off by several thousand if the schedule is more imbalanced than I thought. To be honest, i couldn't have done it the other way so quickly...
I also assumed a lot about player replacements. It is possible, for example, that D'Agostini was not Komisarek's replacement.
In any case, it should give some idea of where we sit.
Brisebois performance clause
Thinking it was enough reward for Brisebois that someone would even pay him to play hockey anymore, i at first assumed that Brisebois' cap hit of $1.5 million!!!! on Cap Central was in error and the $750,000 I remember was correct.
With a little more investigation, I have regrettably come to the conclusion that Brisebois is being paid that much – more than Gorges, Lapierre, Latendresse, Halak and more.
Can any of you tell me what exactly his bonuses are tied to? Is there any hope that he won't reach his conditions?
Dead wood
In doing this, I also found it amazing that Gainey had any maneuverability without the amount of dead wood this team is carrying. In addition to Brisebois's $1.5 milion, there are: the salary offloads from Chicago for Samsonov (totalling more than $760,000 for no one); Laraque at $1.5 million (all of which is down the toilet in my book); Dandenault at $1.725 million and Bouillon at a whopping $1.825 million, respectively (about half of which is overpay, I'd say).
Thank goodness Gainey managed to sign Andrei Kostitsyn for relatively little, and Higgins and Komisarek in the $2 million range. Plekanec still looks like a downright bargain at $1.6 million next to the aforementioned...
Welcome Matt. We look forward to a) a shot at the point on the PP, b) not looking to Brisebois or O'Byrne every game and c) you trying to earn another contract for yourself next year...
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Now that Brisebois is injured...
Will he be on the next flight to Paris?
Will he be unable to spin the whole way around when he falls down?
Will he still be able to lift both arms when he blames Huet for a goal against?
And most importantly, will he still have time to play himself out of a spot?
Stay tuned for the outcome...
Will he be unable to spin the whole way around when he falls down?
Will he still be able to lift both arms when he blames Huet for a goal against?
And most importantly, will he still have time to play himself out of a spot?
Stay tuned for the outcome...
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