Axes To Grind

When I got back from the weekend I was almost astounded to read one of the headlines that was waiting in my Google reader:

"AK-46 had 20 goals last season, but too often fired blanks"

The positive energy of training camp, the freshness of a new season, the sudden flood of possible stories and a reporter comes up with this?

I can tell you, I didn't have to click on the link to know who had written it. The pot calling the kettle black (for Kostitsyn could probably respond about the reporters own season of stories in kind) was none other than the same guy who on hearing a report of Kostitsyn's quote in Belarus declared with immediate effect that he must go.

I wrote back then that it might do the guy some good to have a deeper look into things. But then I'd probably rather he set his priorities first on making sure to take a deeper look into ideas for stories or text to back up his inflammatory headlines before he dedicates too much time to stats crunching.

The story itself was pointless. It actually said nothing to back up the headline. Kostitsyn too often fired blanks, he said. The evidence? Didn't bother to include much -- a single sentence talking about goalless streaks for the 20 goal-man who played in 81 games (for those keeping track that means he couldn't have possibly scored in 61 games, the fact that some were back to back is hardly too surprising). The rambling piece instead re-reported news we'd heard a month before together with some re-hashed square peg quotes for the round hole premise.

I'd link the piece for you, but take my word for it, it's not really worth reading.

Besides, you're sure to read the same piece again and again from a multitude of sources by next Monday at the rate the grinding stone has been spinning.


A story missed

It's a shame too, because the blindness caused by grudge has left some real reporting by the wayside.

This morning I was surprised to see more links with the Kostitsyn name in my inbox. But this time, instead of the continuation of some bitter reporters agenda, it was a report on Andrei's brother Sergei and Ruslan Salei -- the training partner and mentor recently lost in the Yaroslavl air disaster.

Thinking about it and remembering the nonsensical questions that were asked of Andrei Kostitsyn on the day of a charity golf tournament, it today seems a shame that we don't have a reporter clued in enough to have asked the guy about the loss of a Belarussian teammate and mentor of his own. One must think that Andrei has thoughts on the matter as he like many friends of the tragically deceased players try to come to grips with the loss. What must he think of those who instead dwell on a newspaper report that they never read themselves?





Those of you that read this blog will know that it's no secret we like Kostitsyn. His skill tantalized us and we became early adopters as fans. I've often been puzzled by the dislike for the player who scores 20 goals in bunches like every 20 goalscorer must. But coming off last season, where Andrei improved his defensive play and took fewer penalties and largely took his assignments without a sulk and still looks top in many categories if you care to look into the stats, it felt like axes were being ground.

I would like to call for a better approach of reporting. I'd say put the axes away, but I don't mind strong opinions one way or the other, if I'm honest. I just feel I've had enough wasted clicks by big headlines that promise a meaty opinion and deliver lukewarm leftovers. High time to start backing up those big headlines.

Step Down Panic Stations

Yesterday a summer of building optimism came to a screeching halt. And it wasn't because the sun isn't there when the alarm goes off anymore.

Yesterday was the day we fist got corroboration that Andrei Markov is not perfectly healed.

Now, from what I've seen, every rosy scenario that places the Canadiens in a more favourable position to last season included a healthy Markov. Every scenario dismissing the loss of Hamrlik and Wisniewski because the returnees would fill the gap and more.

Now that those scenarios are showing this hole (filling with water on the knee, apparently), staunch optimists have been seen fleeing for the hills.

What I want to say to this is: be calm. All is not lost.

Last season, my good friend, who's had these ACL surgeries himself, and I spoke all the time about Andrei Markov and the sense in bringing him back for November. My position at the time was that the man healed fast, so why not. His that the healing takes time for everyone, so why rush?

He was right. The recurrence of injury in part due to the curtailed rehabilitation sessions.

Now a season on, Markov has learned his lessons. The Canadiens medical and hockey staff have learned their lessons. And we fans must too. Rushing the Russian talisman back is not a strategy that we want to toy with. Even if it means a few weeks of adjustment to pace and significant early season games lost to the lineup, a healthy Markov on return is better than a vulnerable one.

So the conservative approach is what we should be looking for. The conservative approach when we see it (such as yesterday) is something we need to celebrate with a big "phew, they won't repeat the same mistakes of the past."

I'm happy to see that our old pal Arpon Basu landed right on this philosophy in today's analysis. I'm hoping that others will come around.

That's one reason to be calm.

The other is simple arithmetic. If optimism of contention was brimming for Markov's brigade a couple of days ago, it should not suddenly be emptied to the dregs.

The task of the Montreal Canadiens for 6 months is to make sure they are among the top half of outfits on the Eastern side of the board. Contention comes later. If you have honest questions about whether the Habs will be able to make the playoffs without Markov for 20 games, 40 games or 80 games then you probably should have been asking honest questions about those thoughts on contention anyway. If you believe Markov takes the team from outsider to parade planners then you should probably also honestly ask a few questions about how much you remember Markov and what he can do for the team.

Andrei is a formidable player, the best overall package on the team by a margin at the moment. But he's one guy. He's one guy who plays 1/3 to 1/2 of the time at the best of times. Really the team will carry the load.


So step down panic stations. Optimism be tempered (it always should be) but not lost. Markov, his advisors and the Canadiens are doing this right this time.

Not Yet Time To Write Off AK46

Just today, there were a couple of good articles on the Habs. One looked back at the Corsi-related stats for the Habs over the 2010-11 season, the other anticipated 10 possible surprises for the upcoming season. Read both. They’re good summer reading for hockey fans.

Both articles, whether intentionally or not, ignored/slighted Andrei Kostitsyn.

In the first, the author looked at Andrei stats and concluded that he was an adequate (“fairly solid” actually) top 6 forward. Nothing wrong with that on its own.

The second article is only fun speculation, I’m aware. Yet in keeping with popular trends, the surprises weighed heavily on Lars Eller and Max Pacioretty, even Erik Cole. In fact, the article mentions every top forward on the team except for Andrei Kostitsyn. Pacioretty is the top potential surprise, Eller #3, Gomez is in there, and the others could all benefit from Cole.

I don’t wish to pick on articles that took summer air and made it into readable articles on the Habs, but I use them to introduce what I have been noticing as a trend among summer Habs fans.

When it comes to scoring lines and Andrei Kostitsyn, it appears that the majority are simply brushing him aside, some even actively writing him off.

How many times have I read that Pacioretty will benefit from Cole on his line? Or that Eller will be ready to step in for Gomez? How many times have I seen comment on the soon-to-be miraculous influence that 3-time 20-, 1-time 30-goalscorer Erik Cole would have on this team? And how many times have we heard that Andrei might not be a complete write-off because he had some late season chemistry with Lars Eller?

In a summer of gushing positivity, the stream has been diverted around the Belarussian.

I am here to defend Andrei’s case (yet again), because I just don’t think it’s time to write this guy completely out of the plans yet. By all means take the evidence and arguments presented elsewhere into your consideration. But to fill in the information gap, please also consider this:


1) Same pace as Erik Cole over the last 4 years

Andrei Kostitsyn (2007-2011): 292 GP, 84 G, 88 A, 172 Pts (0.29 G/G, 0.30 A/G, 0.59 Pts/G)

Erik Cole (2007-2011): 275 GP, 77 G, 84 A, 161 Pts (0.28 G/G, 0.31 A/G, 0.59 Pts/G)

Both players have had the benefit of some great scoring linemates (Kovalev, Staal) and both have had moments on less productive units. Still, at the end of the day, they both produced at an uncannily similar rate. These guys are even the same weight.


2) Even strength scoring strength

15 goals, 13 A1, 6 A2 for 34 points at even strength.

It doesn’t sound that impressive, but considering that puts him 3rd in goals, 1st in assists and 2nd in points on the team, it’s not shabby. Even despite Pacioretty’s streaky greatness, Andrei actually rivaled him at ES with 1.85 vs. 1.93 Pts/60 and 0.82 vs. 0.84 G/60. He was also a fair shade better than Cammalleri, Eller and (of course) Gomez in this regard.


3) Passing to Plekanec

We dwell on goals sometimes if we label someone a goalscorer, and that’s fair. But if we want one of our centres to continue being a 20-30 goal threat, someone has to do the set-up work. Now Cammalleri is a fine and underrated passer, but so is Andrei.

Because 17 of Andrei’s 25 assists were first assists, he ended up creating more goals than one would expect from a 45 point getter. His 0.981 goals created/60 was second on the team to only Pacioretty, and at even strength, he outdistanced everyone with 0.923 GC/60.


4) Important goals

I addressed this before (The Ideal 20 Goalscorer), but it’s worth reiterating. A large percentage of Andrei’s goals were important goals: 6 GWG, 2 GTG and 3 first goals. Totals that put him in the top 3 on the team in each category (first in GW, tied with Gionta).


5) Chances generated

In the age of advanced stats, we have been lulled into comparing elements like Corsi and Team chances for and against as readings for players. There is nothing wrong with this, but we must remember that Corsi and chance differentials were built as extra tools to be taken into account with all the other measures, not as exclusive “be-all, end-all” metrics.

So it’s worth throwing in another advanced stat for Andrei here. Chances on net released from his stick. I believe there is something to be said for getting into position and actually being able to direct what Olivier deems to be a chance against a goalie.

Andrei was 3rd on the team in absolute chances by my count and 2nd in chances per 60 minutes behind Brian Gionta (7.94 Ch/60 vs. 7.69 Ch/60).


Based on these things, and a history of watching this player, I’m suggesting it’s far too early to write Andrei Kostitsyn out of the Canadiens plans for the roster, the top two lines or indeed the top line.

Cole is an interesting addition and Pacioretty and Eller gave us all something to be optimistic about at times last season, but all the while Andrei was there – scoring 20 goals and providing an ES threat even in what people called an off season.

I think this is a positive. If Cole plays as well as he can and still only cracks the third line, he will no doubt still be an upgrade on Moen or Darche for all the reasons that have been expounded over the past two weeks. If Pacioretty needs more time to grow and has to eat his pride a bit while playing in the bottom six, he too will still be an improvement on the options that were available last season.

Of course, it could be that it will be Kostitsyn patrolling the third wave with Eller or Gomez. It’s just me and some of the evidence don’t see things turning out that way.

Beautiful Decision Markov Locked Up 3 Years

There's not much more to say than my headline. Markov signed a three-year deal (allegedly at his previous salary).

This is great news for many reasons:

1) He's Markov: you know what we think of him
2) PK will have air to breathe, shoot like he did with less than a minute left in the season
3) $5.75 million from $64.5 million isn't that much to pay for a player of this calibre (the average player on a 23-man roster gets $2.8 million)
4) Emelin transition/staycation
5) There's no free agents to replace this guy, especially with Detroit also throwing money at the Rafalski hole

$20,000,000 Should Do It

Your news for today:

- Cap set to rise to $64 million (floor to $48 million)
- Pacioretty signs for $3.25 million over a couple of seasons
- Markov still unsigned

That together with other non-news like Gomez not traded, Moen still inexplicably employed by the Canadiens, Jagr never to sign in Montreal and Pouliot without a contract gives us the grand sum of news which is this:

The Canadiens have about $20 million to spend on 4 defenders, 5 forwards and a back-up goalie.

Now, we know that one of these defenders is Andrei Markov, and we think his contract is being negotiated now. We don't know what the delay is or has been, but it's conceivable the team and the player have been waiting to see what the salary cap will be for the future of this contract.

Knowing now that the cap is high and $6 million is now a mere 10% of the team budget, the playing field is clearer.

Knowing this ourselves, we feel that there is little reason that Andrei Markov and whatever salary it takes to get him won't fit into the team's new budgetary calculations.


For the sake of argument, let's pull $6 million-ish as his cap number. With Andrei signed, together with the top two lines as they look like they will be going forward, PK Subban and Yannick Weber, Hal Gill and Carey Price, there is also little reason to believe that any of the remaining restricted free agents would be lost against the team's own strategic desires.

A remaining $14 million is more than enough to cover off Josh Gorges, Benoit Pouiot, David Desharnais, Ryan White, Alex Picard and Tom Pyatt. This illustrious list even gives hope that there would be plenty left over should Gauthier want to re-acquaint himself with someone like Roman Hamrlik, Brent Sopel or possibly even James Wisniewski.


A rising salary cap world

Now that the Canadiens have been in a rising salary cap world for 6 years, does anyone else think it's high time they started acting like they are?

Every team that we think is under threat of being dismantled come spring (barring the stacked Blackhawks) always seems to get their reprieve by the bustling budgetary numbers from the revamped league. The Philadelphia Flyers, serial cap violators all of a sudden have all the money they need to sign Ilya Bryzgalov and keep their roster mostly intact. It almost seems like they knew that a cap determined by their budget combined with other teams would get a boost. it almost seems like they read the market and learned that caps usually go up in June.

The Canadiens are doing better. The Plekanec contract for example, looks a lot better today than it did yesterday. Ditto Cammalleri. But the recent Kostitsyn signing (at an NHL median $3.25 million a year) seems like a very conservative bet on a clearly above average player.

In this rising cap world of nice surprises and unexpected cap space, I wouldn't mind seeing the Canadiens get a bit more crafty when their annual May break comes around.

Still, I'll be more than happy at this point with a Google search that turns up news for Andrei Markov before the end of June.

Bashing Kostitsyn A Quick Guide

When things don't go well (which apparently this year means losing two games in a row) someone must be held to account. By someone, it is usually safe to assume that we mean Andrei Kostitsyn.

If you haven't been watching your games on RDS, you may not have realized that Kostitsyn was the root of all evil. But rest assured he is. As a service to readers, i thought a quick guide on how to bash him properly might help.


Some basic rules

1. Use the gamelog. Games without points are bad games. No need to check any other source.


2. Don't forget to maximize scoring drought. If the latest pointless streak is preceded by a short streak with a few points and another pointless streak, it may be better to add more 0 point games in. Do both and see which looks better (i.e., worse)

For example, right now you have these choices:

a) Only 20 points in 30 games (53 point pace)
b) Only 9 goals in 30 games (25 goal pace)
c) Only a sinle point last game
d) Only 1 point in 3 games
e) Only 2 points in 6 games
f) No goals in 6 games
g) Only 2 G, 6 Pts in last 12 games
h) Only 3 G in last 21 games (the right choice)


3. Use aspirational pace. Using real pace for goals and points can cloud the issue (like Kostitsyn might actually be having a career best year), using aspirational goals (like 50 goalscorer) assures the best point is made


4. Compare him to players in the 2003 draft. Remember not to slip up and use the players you actually said Montreal should draft at the time like Steve Bernier


5. It's important only to mention teammates that make him look bad. Plekanec is a good bet. For others look at the scoring for the year



When and how to bash

Situation	Example
Just scored hat-trick goal	"It's about time"
During goal celebration (single)	"That's what he can do when he's not just floating around"
After a single point game (assist)	"Plekanec and Cammalleri were outstanding on that goal"
One shift drought	"Truly an enigma"
One game drought	"Clearly the start of a new slump"
Three game drought	"No points in three games, and counting"
Five game drought	"I'm not sure he'll ever score again"
Eight game drought	"Even Steve Bernier would have been a better pick up in the 2003 draft"
21 games, 3 G, 10 Pts	"He played with Plekanec, he played with other players, he went back with Plekanec. Players need to look at their own performance. He was effective when he was involved and he gave us some good hockey occasionally (important to stress this word), but right now we need more than that."

Coming into the year, practically nobody expected Andrei Kostitsyn to ever score again. The inconvenient little streak, during which he was the best player on the team shouldn't allow us to forget those feelings and pointed summertime analyses.

Tune in tonight for a good second lesson. instructor, as always will be Benoit Brunet.

Andrei Who?

Nearly two weeks on from Markov's injury against the Carolina Hurricanes and the storm of attention has all but disappeared.

What started on the next day with know-it-all reports from RDS and Team 990 "medical experts" has all but dried up. There's no speculation. there's hardly any news. It's so far off the radar that I didn't notice Habs Inside/Out even re-reporting the TSN story of Markov's status.

It leaves one wondering if Montreal is already asking Andrei who?

I certainly am not. And I look to reports at least once a day to check in on the general's condition. For I understand that although the team will have nice streaks in his absence, as they have done twice this season now, that players as multi-talented as Andrei Markov aren't simply replaced.

The current replacement strategy is working well, and Picard is a better fit than MAB. However, we mustn't forget how we fret every year when Hamrlik runs out of steam, or how fatigue catches up with the group.


Encouraging news
The encouraging news for Habs fans is this: if Markov needed surgery, he'd be having it. The very fact he needs more evaluation is the glimmer of hope in this catastrophic loss. Someone doesn't think surgery is necessary: doctor, player, other.

While it doesn't really matter whether Jacques Martin has ruled anything out or not, it does matter that Markov isn't quick to surgery as some players might be. His determination (and that hyperbaric chamber) is what got him back so quickly after the last two injuries, and it will be the most important factor this time too.

While that is encouraging short term, we can't comment on the long-term implication of this knee thing without some detail. No one has that. If he needs surgery and plays through, there could be argument that his career would be in jeopardy (not what we want). In terms of contract, it's a spanner in the works too. The Canadiens will likely have to get a bit creative with a hedged bet on his return to full health rather than risk losing the best player they have developed in a full 20 years.

Habs Vs. Pens Time To Give Byslma Something To Think About

The playoffs is a unique portion of the NHL seson.

At other times, it may suffice to devise one's own strategy and take it to each and every opposing arena. Not so in the playoffs. Because the opponent is the same every game and the stakes so high, all strategies are sussed out and countered by any coach worth his weight.

Thankfully for the Canadiens, Bruce Boudreau had no counter. All that talk of AHL success perhaps more pertinent now than ever in assessing his true ceiling.

The difference for Jacques Martin is that from here he will be facing people with mettle. Bylsma has won a Cup and recovered the Pens from the mess that was Therrien's reign. Claude Julien is showing he's so good at convincing players that trapping is winning that he's redeeming his reputation again. In the West, there are finalists at every corner, bar Vigneault.

But never mind any of them. The immediate task is to vanquish the Penguins and hoodwink Bylsma. Last game, Bylsma somehow convinced the free-flowing Penguins to stop shooting and adopt a congestive defensive zone. It was the perfect adaptation to Montreal's reliance on counter attack. It was possible because Martin's plan has been the same since the Washington series. it was read, understood and countered.

The risk then is that the Habs over-rely on this same system, sans tweaks from here on. It could work, it's a workable system. However, there's no need to be so entrenched. Martin has options.


My humble suggestion

Assuming there is no sudden surge in confidence in the abilities of Metropolit, Darche and others, I think Martin will continue to employ 3 lines with mixes.

Fair enough, I see his point. Play the guys of higher caliber more often. Pre-empt outlandish Crosby matchups if possible.

If I buy that, I don't buy the guys on the bench. Why have Darche, Metropolit, Maxwell (non-threats) sit there when you could dress Sergei the Terrible? Why trot Andrei Kostitsyn out with offensive donkeys when he could thrive with a mere 4 minutes of fraternal passing?

Come on Jacques. Bury the hatchet and give Bylsma something to really think about. Your new fourth line:

AK46 - Metropolit - SK74

Game #80 A Point And An Away Scoreboard Result Put Habs On Verge

Details

Date: 06/04/10
Opponent: Islanders
Location: Long Island


Loss: 3-4 (SO)

Habs Goalie: Halak (L)
Opposition Goalie: Biron (W)

Habs goalscorers: Plekanec, Gionta, Lapierre
Opposition goalscorers: Comeau, Bergenheim, Nielsen (Moulson, Nielsen – SO)

Play of the game

Haven't we waited a long time for a real beauty? Funny thing is, one comes and we have choice for others nearly as pretty. The winner for tonight's honour has to go to the goal that secured a point – courtesy of Maxim Lapierre. The play was all Max. He starts by taking back control for the team and looping back into the zone. A firm pass to Bergeron, who passes quickly to Darche gives Max time to slingshot through the neutral zone. Darche makes a nice pass to Max from blueline to blueline and Max challenges the coverage with speed. It starts getting beautiful when he splits the defenders and becomes Max's best ever when he calmly wards off the poke check clearance with a skate to stick pass. Taking control in time to outlast the defence and apply a deke, he then roofs it past a stunned Biron. Magnifique is what Houde sprung to. He was right. This is a reminder of why people get up in arms about Lapierre at all. Some talents couldn't piece together one element of this 5-part play.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Andrei Kostitsyn – Game Puck
Lapierre's goal was the class of the night, but Andrei tempted a few times with elusive skating, strong puck defence and threaded passes. I thought on the night, he was the danger man for the Habs. HI pass on the Plekanec goal was exactly the kind of play you'd hope for from a top line pairing heading into the playoffs (a bit of synergy and zip). 5 shots on target from 6 attempts to Cammalleri's 1 from 4, show that Pleks should be looking West with the passes for a while.

Maxim Lapierre
What he accomplished, he did in little time. There was the very important goal and also a very dangerous and well taken shot that nearly finished the game. 10:34 of ice all told will probably be a low for a while after Max makes his second dome in a week. He is forgiven for a shootout attempt saved, because he tested with a move that would have worked another time. Really, he couldn't have chosen a better time to step up his game, given Metropolit's absence.

Sergei Kostitsyn
This was a toss up. Our third line is a brilliant late season find, and must be the biggest reason for optimism for the playoffs as far as I'm concerned. Lines 1 and 2 did their jobs tonight, creating chances and confusion. Line 3, however, went beyond. The line seemed to be a good bet for the Habs. Dominic Moore was once again a dynamo, and he narrowly misses here. Sergei gets the final nod for a couple of reasons. First, Sergei played a mean game positionally in the offensive zone – always using his body to preserve the puck he now seems to want so badly. Second, there were silky passes we hadn't been seeing early in the season. His play to nearly end the game (against the post) was sublime.

Defencemen

Ryan O'Byrne
I don't want to belittle Ryan, but some teams suit him – the Islanders is one of them. The young team is not organized in attack and prone to a big body erasing the overeager puck carrier. Tonight Ryan did that with regularity. Positioning his body to win the puck was his major skill. The scorekeeper calling him for 10 hits shows us he often times also made the boards echo with Islanders. For me, this represents a high in what has been a good little progression for the student O'Byrne.

Andrei Markov
If you read the premise behind the dome carefully, it says we will choose the six players we want to play, the six best players. Markov, with such wealth of skill, must be beaten then by a significant effort to warrant exclusion. Tonight I didn't feel anyone was up to that mark. Andrei didn't play his best game, but he was at least as good as Gill, Bergeron and Hamrlik and probably better than Gorges. The stats sheet says this was Bergeron's dome, only bad passes are bad passes to me, whether punished or not. What's more, Andrei has some great PP minutes himself, even if not rewarded with a GF. Interesting is that Jacques Martin managed Andrei's minutes in this one to the point of madness – Markov played a mere 21:09, and his even strength minutes were lowest on the squad.

Goaltender

Jaroslav Halak
Today we heard that numbers are for bean counters. This game offered a lot of beans. 42 shots were directed at Halak in game play, 39 were saved. Critics will say that most were innocuous, and critics would be dead on there. Still, Halak probably did make 8 or so pretty big saves, including one sensational stop on Tavares. In the end, Halak gave his team a chance to win. He also missed a shot that led to OT and played a weak effort on the first shooter. Most important in the end were the saves, a game that goes to OT 3-3 with 42 shots allowed is not one to beat up a goalie too harshly for. A goal allowed at the end of the second, another in the first, or earlier in the third might have changed the complexion and cost the single point.

Comments

I'm sure we all expected a win tonight. The underpowered Islanders with no reason to win were amrked as an easy obstacle to qualification. But as we should well know in this of all seasons, nothing is decided. The Islanders are a young team, learning on the fly and experimenting on the go. They start a goalie hanging onto a career and veteran players showcasing for a way out. They had little to play for in the playoff race, perhaps, but much to play for as individuals. The first period this seemed to stun the Canadiens as much as it did the Habs fan majority in Uniondale. However, by the second, I thought the Habs were putting a firm grip on things. Turning points, good goals and a shootout later and it's a good spectacle and a point. I can't say that from the first period deficit in goals and play that I'm disappointed with the swing it took.

The biggest reason to celebrate on the night are the Thrashers and Rangers losses to convincing sides. New York offered little after a first period lead and rally and Gaborik looks likely to sit out a post-season yet again while Gomez might yet see action. Atlanta crash out in predictable fashion as Oduya can't score at the 50-goal level of his trade partner. Buffalo won to clinch the division and thereby ensure no Senators for the Habs (the desired result). And, Washington beating Pittsburgh is more good news, as the Penguins would be the worst case scenario in round 1 (worse even than NJ).

The NHL hasn't put an X beside the team in the standings, but the destiny rests with the team – who after a feisty effort, I feel are up to claiming it.

Game #73Ottawa Claims 5th Place In Tightly Fought Game

Details

Date: 22/03/10
Opponent: Senators
Location: Montreal

Loss: 0-2

Habs Goalie: Halak (L)
Opposition Goalie: Elliott (W)

Habs goalscorers: None
Opposition goalscorers: Regin, Karlsson

Play of the game

It was a strange game. Despite the downbeat take from RDS and the unenviable scoreline, there was some worthy play contending for this honour. In the final analysis, I thought Halak's quick pad save on Mike Fisher early in the third period with the score still at 1-0 was a key moment. It maintained the hope, if not the momentum, that a victory was within reach.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Brian Gionta
I believe this is what analysts would call a rich vein of form. For some time now, Gionta has been the major factor in the Canadiens attack, something he kept up in this game. The shots were there, and were it for a bit of luck or a bounce or two in a different direction, Brian's 5 shots and 10 attempts on net might have yielded another multi-goal game and further heroic acclaim. As it stands, the stats will only tell us he had a lot of shots.

Andrei Kostitsyn
I think it was right for some people to be worried about Andrei. The past few games, he has played adequately, but without fire. Well, tonight he reignited the fire. Of all the forwards, I actually thought Andrei was best. Even in messing up plays, he seemed to make highlights – once making a pass of the game with his foot, another time turning a botched breakaway into a slick feed. Had this gone differently, I was going to be clamouring for Cammalleri. As it happens, I look forward to him complementing two players in relative form.

Sergei Kostitsyn
What a transformation from the younger Kostitsyn. Not only from the sulky days of Hamilton, but also from the solid, but unthreatening return to the lineup of winter. Spring, it seems, has added some pep to Sergei's game, and I'm convinced that of all the Olympians, he gained the most. He was lively off the puck, always fighting and skating good lines. And on the puck, he orchestrated some dangerous moves. Jacques Martin noticed too (though probably too late) as Sergei was transplanted onto a scoring line at the expense of Pyatt late on.

Defencemen

Jaroslav Spacek
Spacek played for his money on this night. Though we might have enjoyed a deflection or two on his point efforts, he still ran a solid point on the PP – banishing all memories of Brisebois, at least, with zone conservation as clockwork. Really the strength of his game was in the defensive end and in puck control. He played a decent defensive game, never turning to cross-checking or hooking to get out of trouble, instead trusting his instincts, his puck control and his partner. We might be taking this for granted now, but Spacek in this form is a massive upgrade on Brisebois/Dandenault/Bouillon.

Josh Gorges
Another solid game from Gorges. He was on the ice for both goals, but the second one certainly wasn't his fault. The rest of the game, I thought our 4th come 3rd defenceman did a very good job. If I could only find a way to be as calm as Josh while watching Hal Gill stumble around the ice.

Goaltender

Jaroslav Halak – Game Puck
The dome was a certainty. The game puck was a tight call. Halak played well tonight, making several instrumental and timely saves, but the goalless forwards had their moments too. What tipped the balance for Halak in the end was his total and utter calm in the face of waves of Sens pressure (and open shooting chances). The evolution that has brought him from jumpy and acrobatic youngster to the calm starting goalie we have craved for some time in one form or another.

Comments

This loss was a bad one. For the standings at least. It was definitely a game that one might have hoped for a storming effort. The effort, however, was not as bad as those who colour every comment by scoreline make out. In my opinion, the Canadiens and Senators played symmetrical games. Both teams played with relative discipline, both teams took about 30 shots, both teams had several dangerous efforts. While the Habs got the referee's on this night, the Sens seemed to get the nice bounces. Time and time again, the Canadiens seemed to end their build up with a pass just short or too long, a bounce just out of reach or into a Sens shin pad. The PP will be recorded as a failure, but had one shot seen its way cleanly to the net as Karlsson's did, the result and the analysis would say differently. The Sens first goal too was a marvel, as a pass snuck through our behemoth of assistant captain without veering off course to an expectant stick and unexpectant goalie.

In short, I think the loss was just one of those things. And for a team that seems to prefer to do things the hard way – almost predictable. I neither think this indicts their play of the past two weeks as fluke, nor tells us a thing about how Game 74 will begin and/or end. The Senators played with their peers and took the goals on a night when the game could have gone either way.

In the positives column, Gionta continues to be electric and Andrei may have re-awoken, Halak calmly answered the questions asked and the defence (if it didn't prevent first shots) cleared the zone well. Let's not also forget that Cammalleri might make a healthy return, which would be a boon to both the PP and the top two lines.

Final thoughts go to Travis Moen, who we hope is OK and free of damage to anything more than the bridge of his nose. Once again, the trainers and the medical system in place since McCleary must be commended for its speed of response.

Montreal Regular Season Imaging (MRI): Cammalleri Will Be Sorely Missed

The other day Mike Cammalleri was checked from a few feet out from the boards right into them at full tilt. Forgive me for being squeamish, but I won't put a video up. Suffice it to say, the knee is a delicate joint meant to bend one way. He'll be lucky to come out of today's MRI scan with good news.

The result of the scan is rightly being looked at as an important juncture in the Canadiens season. If Cammalleri somehow escapes with a twist, no tears, then it will affect morale and Gainey's maneuvering accordingly. If (and it probably will, odds makers) it goes the other way and the damage is extensive, the effects will be opposite.


What it might tell us

In an unfortunate turn for those who want to book their spring holidays, nothing that happens today will tell us one way or the other what will happen to the Canadiens final tally in the standings, and that of the teams around them. If an injury can happen to Cammalleri, it can happen to any player on any team.

While clearly there's no remedy for the unsatisfying feeling of having to play/watch games to see whether a team will make the playoffs, this scan today should give us some pretty clear indication on what to expect from Cammalleri and what management thinks of this team.


How much will Cammalleri be missed?

A few have tried to put their proverbial fingers on how much Cammalleri will be missed from this lineup. Ya The Habs Rule! gives the statistical impact a good airing. He notes a few things about the Habs stars percentage of total goals, both in terms of his own goals and points.

I can tell you that all of that is true, but sadly for Habs fans, it actually underestimates the impact that Cammalleri has had this season. At Lions in Winter we have been recording each and every goal and scoring goals created for the season. While the points total shows our best goalscorer and second points producer; by goals created Cammalleri is a clear #1 on the team, and leads in many categories. Here's what I mean:

– Cammalleri's been on the ice for 77 GF, 49 at ES, 28 on the PP
– Next in GF is Plekanec at 69 GF and Spacek at ES with 45 GF

– He's been involved in 57 of those goals, scoring or assisting on 48
– Plekanec has been involved in 54 goals, with 54 points

– At any strength, Cammalleri is on for 4.21 GF/60
– Markov is just higher, but the next player is under 4.00 GF/60

– At ES, Cammalleri is on for 3.15 GF/60
– Next is Gionta at 3.11 GF/60

– Cammalleri has created 22.17 goals in total, 17.33 at ES, 4.83 on the PP
– Plekanec is second with 19.46 in total, 11.46 at ES, 7.75 on the PP

– Averaged that's 1.21 GC/60, 1.12 GC/60 at ES and 1.82 GC/60 on the PP
– Plekanec is 1.02 GC/60, 0.84 GC/60 at ES and 3.35 GC/60 on the PP

– By these numbers, Cammalleri is a top 10 offensive force in the league (though we haven't corrected players on other teams with the LIW numbers yet)


In short, he's the engine of this team going forward.

If there's a silver lining in losing Cammalleri, it's that our 5-on-5 game looked terrible with him in the lineup anyway and there must surely be a bottoming out point. What's more, Cammalleri hasn't been driving the PP and should be replaceable there.

But while someone may well jump in and start putting up better numbers in Mike's absence (Gomez? Gionta?), the issue here is that there is no replacing a 4.2 GF/60 player from the extremely weak talent we have in Hamilton, and there's no way a Bulldog jumps in and creates goals at the pace of a top-10 NHLer.


Irreplaceable. What I'd do instead

There's just no replacing Cammalleri. No single player on our team can replace his outputs, neither on the ice or by trade. But winning without Cammalleri should still be possible.

My first move would be to reverse the inane promotion of Matt D'Agostini. I don't need more evidence.

Second, I'd promote AHL 4th leading scorer Brock Trotter (presumably only held back for wont of adding too many small players). In a less obvious move, I'd also make space for David Desharnais and Ben Maxwell. As a line that's formed chemistry and found a way to fire in goals their transplant into the lineup would provide a line 2b.

Plekanec then finds Sergei Kostitsyn and Metropolit for line 2a. Plekanec will suffer in the scoring race (not a bad thing come resignature) but doesn't have to flounder trying to prop up Maxwell or D'Agostni, who on their own have shown little promise at the top level.

This is my pre-Olympic lineup. I then buy myself a ticket to the Games and scout Switzerland, Belarus, Latvia and other teams with unsigned talent. I make coming out of the Olympics with a possible forward a firm goal.

NHL trades? I'd keep ears open, but in losing Cammalleri I've suddenly become exploitable in a trade. I wouldn't want to make a trade I'm not at least initially going to consider a win (short-term and long-term).


It's going to be another tough February. At least this year we have fair warning and a two-week break.

Pacio Ready? No Says Poll

A recently closed poll on this site yielded surprising results.

When we asked: What to do with Pacioretty?

a) Continue to put him on a top line and hope he may score one day
b) Put him on the third line where he'll develop into a third round grinder
c) Demote him to Hamilton while we still can
d) Get him a shooting tutor
e) Change his number to something sensible
f) Get him into the weight room

I didn't expect there to be consensus. I didn't expect nearly two thirds of the sample to go for the extreme option of sending him to Hamilton. Very few went for the weight room or the third line, even fewer for persisting with the top line, or tutoring him on shoting at the NHL level. None agreed with my suggestion that #67 just isn't a good omen for the Habs player.


See the reason

I'll be honest, I voted once as well, and I chose Hamilton, but even so.

I'll go out on a limb and say that most of you probably chose the same way for similar reasons. Pacioretty is not bad player. In fact, he's a very good one. He seems to prevent goals like few others on the team not wearing a trapper. Alas, I don't think that's what we fans had in mind for the boy.

Do we need a 20-year-old shut-down man? Or, should the team work with the skills the boy has to bring them out – as a scorer (or at least a decent passer)? Do the Habs leave him with what he can manage for now and let him develop habits to follow? Or, does management get the youngster used to playing in scoring situation against competition he can actually compete with in that way?

It's a classic question, but a pertinent one, I think. Pacioretty was drafted highly because he could skate, is big and uses his body and balance well, and wasn't no slouch around the net. He's still that guy, but he's being trained to choose differently now: go outside, because you lose it inside; don't shoot, you can't score on NHL goalies; dump all the time, people anticipate your passes. His intelligence is to be lauded for adapting, but his confidence seems scarily shrunken.


The best development projects

In deciding what to do, I think it's worth a look at the best development projects on this team: Plekanec, Andrei Kostitsyn; and to contrast with the limper results: Sergei Kostitsyn.

Both Tomas and Andrei got good time and minutes in Hamilton. Both had top billing on the team and filled important roles. Once in the NHL, they came with some confidence and after some delay began to confidently deliver what was asked: goals.

Contrast with Sergei Kostitsyn who had almost no time in Hamilton and despite a quick NHL start has found it hard to crack defenders without also making mistakes (and getting benched). He too learns, and what he has learned is that to play, play safe.

Pacioretty may never score 20 goals in the NHL, but that was once the hope. I am of the belief that one way to ensure he never develops a scoring touch is to continue this way (i.e., options a) and b)). Hamilton may not be the answer, but it's probably better than the alternative.

In the meantime, how does it affect the Habs? Well they don't lose much offense that I'm aware of. They will of course lose a forward with a defensive conscience. The return of Sergei could offset that though. What's more, there are forwards to do that job with a call up or a waiver pick (Mathieu Darche, anyone?).


Thanks for all your responses, the surveys certainly add insight into this team and and indeed its fans. See the new poll on Max's replacement on the Plekanec line in the right-hand column.

Game #33 Habs Split Personality, Split Points in Atlanta

Details

Date: 12/12/09
Opponent: Thrashers
Location: Atlanta

Loss: 3-4 (OT)

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Hedberg (W)

Habs goalscorers: Metropolit, A. Kostitsyn (2)
Opposition goalscorers: Schubert, Armstrong, Antropov, Kovalchuk

Play of the game

This game went to OT, so at once that means that every save made and every goal scored was absolutely pivotal in securing one point. Strange then that I would opt for a play that in the end caused OT only because nothing came of it for the Habs. The play I'm talking about is the 3-on-1 that Scott Gomez sprung late in the first period. The play's beauty began with what is becoming a typical sight - a Gomez interception turned Montreal chance. The other players (Lapierre and Sergei Kostitsyn) both did very well to spring the trap, as they reacted quickly and intensely to gain clear yards over all but the last defender. Now, if anyone has tried to rush in 3-on-1 on the opposition, what you'll know is getting all three players involved in the play. This play, in that regard, was masterful. Gomez began with the requisite drop, but there ended the mundane. Lapierre without hesitation popped it back to Gomez, negating the defender, in a stride Gomez had received the passed and then feathered it to Sergei. If this goal had gone it, it would be goal of the season material. As it was, the single flaw in the play (Sergei suddenly being unable to lift the puck) meant it was a shot into a gambling goalie. Still as consecutive individual plays go, this was as close to perfection as we would come.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome


Forwards

Tomas Plekanec
Before the tide turned, Tomas was just his excellent self for long stretches. Through his combination of speed, and this season confident positioning, he managed to harvest the puck and chances for the Habs through the first and until the Atlanta onslaught. From the point where it all went pear-shaped, Tomas morphed into uber-efficient penalty-killer.

Andrei Kostitsyn - Game Puck
On a night when Kovalev began to gloss over his November displays, so did his protege further banish memories of October and being Latendresse's object of disdain. Andrei's 5th goal of the season was one that spelled all his talents. He stripped the puck carrier and got that look which only ended after a deke and a scarily powerful screen shot was in the net. However, if you thought that was the extent of him, his 6th goal proved different. The shot from the right he unleashed again was patented Kovalev, and usurped by Cammalleri, but it was his pass to Plekanec (making me think it was PP), changing the point of attack which was the more beautiful.

Scott Gomez
This last place was virtually reserved for a PK player by the refs on this night. That meant Sergei, Moen or Gomez, Moen and Gomez realistically. Now I thought Moen played a good game, a very good game on the PK. However, the difference with Gomez is his ability to both look like a star on the PK and create real chances up front. His one assist on this night was early reward for a night where he created a few chances (including that play of the game) for his wingers.

Defencemen

Marc-Andre Bergeron
You can't really say the Jacques Martin system has been taken up throughout the players. Yet, Marc-Andre has been a case study for listening to the sense the coaches have been talking. Once again he provides that critical extra threat on any PP. Now he also holds his own in his own zone. For me, this is demonstrated in plays where once he would fling the puck away, always forward to any remotely open teammate. Of late (this game being exemplary), he has taken on a bit of patience and seems to take personal responsibility in seeing the puck is not only cleared but ideally held in possession. The fact he also took his stitches in stride was only a bonus on this night.

Roman Hamrlik
What would it take to supplant Roman in here? A lot. He began this game with the poise that infected the whole group. That patience being learned by Bergeron, could be a 3-credit course given by Hamrlik at Hockey U. At his best in this game, Hamrlik knows when to abort a play, when a pass forward would be a pass backward and vice versa. I thought he showed all this at time in the Atlanta game, and on this night that was more than enough given the rivals.

Goaltender

Carey Price
At our harshest we say 4 goals is not enough to allow your team to win, not a team without goalmaker #1 and goalscorer #2. We also, adhere, quite strictly I think, to a philosophy that generalities must be challenged and rules questioned. The 4-goal rule then, is just a guideline. Against the Thrashers, Carey did indeed give his team chance to win. As every other game report will remind you, as well as this one, No Carey, No OT. The split in personality did not miss Carey though. If you were like me, before Atlanta scored you were probably thinking this might be a shutout for Price, such was the work he was doing. He was confident, he was aggressive and he was willing better defence. The game from that goal changed him like it did both teams, likely because it changed both teams. His best saves were yet to come, but gone unfortunately was the extra aggression that had been causing good shooters to aim wide to that point. Even so, this was the loss of a very good goalie (believe it or not Hasek, Roy, Brodeur - they all lose/lost); as Carey never gave up, this was one to draw positives from for the goalie.

Comments

The Canadiens were charged with 7 penalties (excluding fights) on this night. The headlines read that indiscipline brought down the house of cards. I disagree.

While you might think my argument is a house of cards, given that Metropolit's penalty (the one that brought the loss) was indiscipline of the first degree. I nit-pick though. The Kostitsyn penalty, the Lapierre interference, the trips, these were all plays that happen a hundred times over in any game, that happened a hundred times over in this game. I only suggest then that the Canadiens would have trouble eliminating these plays without sacrificing a lot. Like it or not, interference is not banished, accidental trips happen and stick taps go on (even when 99% of the time they aren't called slashes). A team that eliminates them all, no questions asked will quickly find themselves at a disadvantage. Unfortunately (purists cover your eyes), if you don't push the limits, the other team will and push you to the bottom of the standings while they're about it.

So if not indiscipline, then what caused this loss, the shift in momentum. Well, I think man management was a pretty big disaster in this game. Jacques and his coaches have selected a team in which there are 3 players they seem to have no confidence in whatsoever. Is it wise, for example, to select Georges Laraque to play just over 2 minutes? To create a line with him on that is liability for every shift? No, it is not. Did it need to take 40 minutes to try the reliable Tom Pyatt with others? No, it shouldn't have. Did Matt D'Agostini need to be relegated to 6 shifts? Isn't there another way to teach a lesson? I'd like to see more adaptive man management from the guy who almost constantly laments the fitness of his wards.

Game #32 Refs Give Habs Nice Excuse For Loss

Details

Date: 10/12/09
Opponent: Penguins
Location: Montreal

Loss: 2-3

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Fleury (W)

Habs goalscorers: D'Agostini, Hamrlik
Opposition goalscorers: Gonchar, Cooke, Dupuis

Play of the game

Oddly enough in this game, I will choose a play that happened after a whistle. No, it is isn't the legitimate goal that would have tied the game. Rather, a play made by Tomas Plekanec to "protect" his goalie (or himself). The play itself started unremarkably as a little bit of pushing, but then in a way that you would never see from Georges Laraque, emotion took over Pleks and actually started punching Malkin in the face along the boards (or so it seemed). The immediate was Malkin off the existing PP (good move) and Plekanec off the PK (not good, but still a good trade). But funnily, after that point Evgeni, who had been running roughshod through our zone peppering shots and attempts at the net, seemed to go quiet. On a night where most were content to let Pittsburgh get their own way in every aspect of play, Plekanec in this moment served notice he had his eye on Malkin - and for some reason it worked.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome


Forwards

Mike Cammalleri
Mike played a strong game with the puck, as we've become accustomed to. He was tasked this time with monitoring the suddenly extremely dangerous-again, Crosby line. And, while the stats will show he was a -2 on the night, one of the goals against was that Dupuis fluke and the goal he was on for was PP and not scored in +/- terms. There were two plays that really stood out for me in Mike's game this night. The first was his stunning no-hesitation pass for the Hamrlik goal (that was Markov material). The second was a a shot he let fly with venom and accuracy from a nothing play – one through a screen that almost came off.

Scott Gomez
I realise he didn't play for his money. I realise he didn't "score". I realise this one is going to be up for discussion, but so be it. Scott played the second-most minutes among forwards, many on the penalty kill. I'm not exactly sure why I noticed Scott Gomez on this night, but I did – and that in itself tells me something. I think what I noticed was his ability to win the puck, to try interesting things and most importantly the way he led the line when the chips were down at the end. Don't get me wrong, there were bad moments too, a few questionable line changes, but that was the team this night, the game puck man wasn't perfect either. I think this game, the past few games, have really told me what I needed to know about Gomez – get him a winger...

Andrei Kostitsyn
Oh, did I say Gomez needed a winger? I wonder who that should be? Andrei on this night played a very Andrei game. Those who disliked Kovalev will probably have disliked this. However, in his own way he managed to lead the team in shots, just about lead in hits, and lead in chances missed (which says something not only about finish, but also positioning and instinct). The play of the game for Andrei had to be his screen on the PP, notable for two reasons – first that he would even stand in the line of fire, second that he had to hustle to get into that position after floating into free shot territory seconds earlier. It was a sign that even in games without points, he's heading in the right direction.

Defencemen

Roman Hamrlik
You wouldn't think it from a 41-shot game, but many (including players and coaches) actually thought this game was a decent effort, even defensively. One good reason for that is because certain players were excellent. First among those for me was Roman Hamrlik. For a guy who took a beating from the press for a sluggish finish last season, one has to think vindication is being achieved. While the Pierre McGuire's of the world will point to monster shot blocking numbers again, that only gives pale impression of his value. For me, Roman is the standard carrier (perhaps the only true carrier) for the Jacques Martin philosophy. Most times he got the puck in this game, he took responsibility, meaning either he made the play or took the hit, etc. This is what good defending is all about – wanting the puck, winning it back. To top it off he had a pretty nice goal with the best goal celebration of the year.

Josh Gorges
I have to say I thought most defenders played alright, even O'Byrne and Bergeron. But Gorges makes the dome because unlike Spacek he doesn't play with Hamrlik, he plays with Gill. Now I know we're all in love with Gill because we misjudged him and all that, but listen to me: Gill without Gorges is not a very useful player. For every time Gill splays himself across the ice, it's Gorges who scurries in and makes the next, and perhaps more critical play. On this night, he did that repeatedly.

Goaltender

Carey Price - Game Puck
There are two ways to go here. In one review of the goaltending, having Carey in kept us in this game and gave us the chance at blaming the ref for our loss. In another review, one looks at Carey and say there were errors (in puck handling, in over-playing the shots, caught behind the net again, etc.) and he wasn't at his usual standard. Either way, there's no doubt Carey makes the dome, because all goalies make errors and when he's not making errors in the game, he's an absorbent wall to be shot at. But the game puck was a harder decision. Yes we could look at shots and say that any time he saves more than 90% he should be automatic as the three star selectors do. But let's not pretend we didn't watch. Many of the shots he saved were easy ones for him, the Pens missed badly on their most open chances, the shot count for me was dubious, many of his stand out saves were still positioning saves – so do we give him the game puck simply for playing his position properly? On this night we do. For one thing, he was the only player to consistently do that for the Canadiens all night. For another, the biggest saves were at the right times (1-0 down, 2-2 tie, even at 3-2 down), and that is what makes a goaltender great in the end. So not his greatest effort, but if this was just a good effort (and it was in the context of his latest starts). If he was a goalscorer, he would have scored the critical go-ahead goal from nothing at just the right time.

Comments

I don't think anyone who missed the game this evening will be surprised that the Canadiens lost to the Penguins. Add the knowledge that the Penguins played well in both ends, and you wouldn't expect any other result. But this game was precariously close, and one or two referee calls away from a victory.

The first descent into dubiousness for Christopher "Chris" Lee (aka Saruman), was on the Canadiens very first powerplay. On a clearing attempt by the Pens, the puck left the rink. Stamping his "authority" on the game, he chose to see the puck hitting the glass on the clearance – the only fudge available to save a 5-on-3 there for the Habs. Infuriatingly, he then pandered to the Pens by awarding a holding penalty to Gorges after Stall skated into Josh's outstretched stick. It was a taste of the robotic reffing that was to come. For those who haven't seen the tying goal, your best bet is on the far more Montreal-slanted RDS who show the overhead shot. I understand how a ref can make the call when he can't see the puck, what i can't understand is how he expected to see the puck anyway from where he was standing. Maybe that's a question for his programmers...

Anyway, at the end of the day, the Canadiens wouldn't have won with that goal, nor would they have necessarily escaped into OT, since there were 6 minutes to come. The Penguins missed more chances than they got on net, it seemed, so the right team won. The refs merely give us all a nice excuse to soothe our soreness. And, I think, a topic worthy of discussion – why can't referees themselves ask to go upstairs to check their decisions. It seems only natural after you blow a play dead and find the puck in the net.

My second rant of the night is this: can we please find a sensible person to record subjective statistics in Montreal? It's getting embarrassing. Some trigger happy fellow recorded 11 giveaways for Jaroslav Spacek. Murray Wilson (and I didn't think he was way off base) claimed it was the best game he'd seen Spacek play. 11 giveaways and best game ever don't jive, especially when a very very bad season is 100 giveaways, not 1,100. The same hyper-responsiveness is at play for other stats like blocked shots, hits, missed shots and others. I know the Pens had a lot of shots, but even some of those looked like they were going wide, yet ended in Carey Price's suddenly flattering save % calculation. It's frustrating because there are people who could do this well in Montear, but also for a statsophile, I hardly want to call into question the value of every number I have to look at.

Rethinking Andrei Kostitsyn

Having a good scan of the Habs universe yesterday brought me to this very salient piece on Francois Gagnon's favourite player, Andrei Kostitsyn.

Take it from me, it's nice as a blogger to find a piece you wanted to write yourself. It gives time back to watch more highlights and read more trade rumours.

Anyway, I thought the piece was very well stated, a good indictment of those who relentlessly malign the young Belarussian. The aim of its writing, would also be as my own:

"The intention of this article is not to absolve Kostitsyn. He is responsible for his play, his attitude and his work ethic. It's simply to encourage a more balanced assessment of all players regardless of their birthplace."

I think this is fair enough, don't you?

I know that Andrei's had a sluggish start to the season relative to some others, but it hasn't been as abysmal as some commentators (Brunet, Gagnon) constantly suggest that it has been.

Gagnon, never missing an opportunity to continue the agenda he set off last spring, seemed to display real elation in his headline as wrote: "Kostitsyn demoted, finally". Brunet, as you know only takes breaks from boosting Guillaume Latendresse to sling insults at the Kostitsyn brothers.

Rather than ask those commentators to find nasty things to say about 1-goal men Latendresse and Pacioretty, I would simply prefer that they back off a little on Kostitsyn, as I think many do. After all, this season is 11 games long and our top remaining goalscorer from last year is only a three-point game away from springing back onto his usual pace.


Jacques Martin's move misread?

Though Gagnon leaped on the practice alignment for his agenda-fitting headline, I think it may just be possible that Jacques Martin's move was blown out of proportion. For one thing, the "demotion" from Plekanec's line where he wasn't clicking anyway only lasted 30 minutes. In the end, Andrei played only a shade less than Latendresse at even strength, and saw a lot more ice than new golden stick Glen Metropolit, which doesn't exactly scream doghouse.

Secondly, Chipchura had been a warrior the game before, a possession centre without a finisher – the demotion for Andrei was also a nice attempt to see if Chips could benefit from some extra talent around.


Patience

As a frequent winner of my hockey pool's October standings, and a very infrequent winner of the April edition, I've learned a lot about patience. The players we rave about today will not be the same group we rave about on the eve of the important games. Nor will the players who are dogging it in our minds now there interminably.

Some patience needs to be exercised in watching and evaluating young Andrei Kostitsyn, before we boo him off the team in a trade we may regret because:

"By all accounts, the Canadiens are short a top six forward. It would be a shame to lose another one."

Apology

Just as a note on something else that the AllHabs article brought up for me. I hadn't really thought about it before, but Rocket at AllHabs puts it very well when he asks just why there hasn't been any sign of apology from the reporters who slandered (and continue to slander) the Kostitsyns as criminals:

"Both Kostitsyn brothers and Roman Hamrlik were the victims of rumours, embellished associations, and shoddy journalism by the Montreal media last season. To date, there has been no public apology for the outrageous accusations made by certain journalists and commentators. Some even continue to defame the three by referencing the false stories."

And to requote myself:

"No one really cared whether they were criminal or not, what will be remembered is that game with frenzied hacks claiming the scoop of the century – and that said scoop implicated the Belarussians. It's propaganda 101, people don't care too much about the facts. Give them a "juicy" (to borrow a term from the man himself) headline and they'll remember that."

Come to think of it, I do think an apology is due. And though I never expect one, perhaps in lieu of one, Gagnon and Brunet in particular could offer some peace for the winger trying to crack a 5.3 shooting percentage slump.

Doing It On The Cheap Is Bergeron An Acceptable Solution?

It's unfortunate that Andrei Markov went down with injury. It's going to cost us some wins. But unlike my hockey pool, where the guy with Markov has to hope for days spent in the hyperbaric chamber, a hockey team can adapt. Signing, call-up, trade, there are ways and means to fill the hole.

Bob Gainey has moved. At first, it seemed like Ryan O'Byrne (the call-up option) was going to be the solution. After he got injured, Bob went down the signing route: Marc-Andre Bergeron.

My question is this: On the Montreal Canadiens, with an expectant fan-base and a suddenly very accommodating salary cap hole, is it good enough?

To say nothing of Marc-Andre Bergeron himself, my suggestion is that it is not. not even close.


What has been lost

What is puzzling from Gainey here is that we know from history what is lost when Markov goes down. Only PP efficiency, defensive cohesion and effective shadowing. In other words, the hole he leaves is a big one.

But aside from that what also has been lost is the luxury of playing a 2nd defender as a 2nd, a 3rd as a 3rd, and so on. His loss means everyone gets bumped to a level where they might manage for a game, or in some cases (like Gorges) where they make an improvement in what they can deliver.

Losing the clear first defenceman on a squad with no question marks would be bad enough. Losing one on a team with Hal Gill, Paul Mara, Ryan O'Byrne and Weber as the question marks there already is extra distressing.


The salary cap

The Montreal Canadiens make money, they make a lot. For a team like the Habs, the salary cap has given cost certainty, and a guarantee on the operating profits they will make.

So when a $5.75 million player goes down for 4 months on this team, this (unlike in Nashville perhaps) is money in the pockets of the owners. In fact, if the current situation stands (with Bergie as the stand in), we're talking multiple millions in beer money.


The replacement

As I said before, I don't wish to speak ill of Marc-Andre Bergeron, but I am not aware of him being a 1st defender, are you? I think a generous assessment of the guy who just made it through the whole summer without a contract would be a 4th defender with some very very nice skills on the PP. To go higher than that would be to bring into question the judgment of a lot of managers leaguewide.

In effect then, what gainey is floating here is the idea that Hamrlik replaces Markov, while Spacek replaces Hamrlik and Gorges replaces Jaroslav. Marc-Andre then replaces Josh and the guys beneath are in holding pattern. It's a better sell than Beregeron for Markov, but there's a couple of stretches in there, aren't there? Haven't we tested Hamrlik's stamina in that role? Haven't we experimented with Gorges abilities out of his depth before? Spacek's a nice insurance policy to have, but isn't he still an unknown?


The net effect: Vastly worse teams, vaster profits

Personally, as a fan I don't think I can accept all of this, not again. It's one thing to vaunt the development of Yannick Weber as he steps in to replace Hal Gill some time, it's quite another to sing the praises of bringing in a youngster like that when there's a lay-off of known length to the top player on the team.

For me, nothing less than Gainey putting in some hard work and organizing a suitable replacement will suffice. I think we were patient with him when he tossed Streit without replacement, when he did nothing to replace key injured parts for large portions of last winter. I think this time we deserve a better plan, a medium-, not short-term, solution.

Looking at the prospects and then at the free agents (not even all available anymore), I've alighted on the fact that creativity must play a part here. I think we have to make a trade.

If only there were a team dying to get rid of a top offensive defender so they undergo a face lift and possibly restock their cupboard; if only there were a GM harebrained enough to crave players just like Gregory Stewart, and those forwards we have in abundance.


Are you with me? What do you think? Try Bergeron and see how many games we have to make up by February?

Even forgetting our defence for a minute, it would be criminal for the Molsons to walk off with Markov's cap room in insurance payments, wouldn't it?

Kostitsyns Not The Sedins Time To Separate The Brothers

If I was an NHL GM, I can't tell you how tedious I would find it to have to deal with the Sedins.

I may already have a centre, but be very interested in a smoothe skating winger like Daniel; or vice versa, I may be on the lookout for a centre but wish to fore go the wing-man brother as I have been developing players of my own who frankly I like better.

Alas, to my chagrin, I am not an NHL GM. But I am a pretty big NHL fan, and I can tell you that it still annoys me that neither Daniel nor Henrik Sedin can ever be mentioned in a separate breath. You may remember the ranking of the top 50 players in the NHL by Adam Gretz at NHL FanHouse (mainly because he underrates Markov). He committed the crime I deplore, in that he didn't even bother considering the Sedins a separate entity and clumped them both together as the #21 player in the league (making his list a top 51...).

That's been an annoyance for a while, albeit a mild one. I've certainly never felt the need to write about it until now.

The need to put the proverbial pen to paper comes from the eerie parallel I see arising amidst Canadiens fans when they address the brothers Kostitsyn (a recent example can be found here). I just want to put that to an end right now.


Kostitsyns are not twins, not even similar

While I'm not that well placed to actually tell you which Sedin is the better player or whether they are even different people, I certainly watch enough Habs games to have a good feeling about our brotherly combo.


In my opinion, the Kostitsyn boys may be brothers by name, but for skills they may as well not be.


Andrei the shooter
I still have questions about whether Andrei likes shooting, because he clearly doesn't shoot enough. However, when he does shoot we are treated to a display we have not witnessed from one of our own prospects since the late 80s – an elite shot. Andrei has quick release, power in a wrist shot and accuracy when he has time to set. He has goalscorers hands and a shot that could net him 40 or 50 one day.

Contrast this to Sergei. His shot is adequate but is not released with either the speed or the weight of an Andrei shot. His shot is NHL level, but the level that all 10-15 goalscorers in this league possess, and the level that goaltenders stop with regularity when they see it. He's no corner-picking sharpshooter.


Andrei the strong
This is another area I feel Andrei has yet to fully develop, yet one that is there in flashes for him. When Andrei gets the puck sometimes you can sense that few defencemen in the league would be able to take it off him. Through a combination of body positioning and balance he seems to be able to muscle through the situations for which he can't make himself a free corridor with a deke.

Again, Sergei couldn't be further from. When people talk about running into dead ends, Sergei Kostitsyn comes to mind for me. Though he's tricky with the puck on his stick, he gets into trouble when the defender is ready and not buying his fakes. Smaller than Andrei, it just seems to me that he isn't at all as strong and that he just doesn't possess the momentum he needs to go through a defender, even if he wanted to.


Sergei the all-rounder
here I don't mean to say that Sergei is already an all-round player, because he certainly isn't. But one can see that the guy has at some point in the past recognised his limitations and has at east thought to develop the defensive side of his game. As I said, he's not a premiere defensive forward yet, but like Andrei with strength, you can sometimes see flashes.

I've been generous to Andrei so far, so I'll mete out a bit of criticism now. Andrei is not a player I would want to see on the ice when defending a 2-goal lead with 2 minutes to go. Nor would I want to see him on the PK. When I watch him, I recognise that he's just one of those guys who probably has never had a defensive thought cross his mind. He thinks offence and positions himself for that – that's all. It's fine, and we need a player like him; but I think it's a big distinction between him and his brother.


Sergei the weasel
Believe me, I mean this in the most complimentary sense. For you can't win any competition in a league full of weasels without some of your own. Sergei has this weaselling built in. It's clear. The Grabovski debacle. Those incidents with Chris Neil. He's a needler. he likes getting under peoples skin.

Does Andrei even know what a weasel is? Andrei, even in games where he seems possessed with energy and ideas is still the guy least likely to fight. The guy least likely to be slashing Jarkko Ruutu behind the play. To me, he seems a much more laid-back character, comfortable to play the game of entering the offensive zone, taking the chance and then reloading and trying again. The rest of the drama, he can take it or leave it. He's no Sergei in that department.


A couple of seasons ago, I opened the year with two articles entitle The Habs Future And The Two Andreis. The basic idea was that coming into 2007-08, the Habs were in transition but were starting to build around two vital pieces – Andrei Markov at the back and Andrei Kostitsyn up front. I still stand by all the gooey praise I had for both players back then.

My point here being that back then I believed Andrei Kostitsyn was a cornerstone player and I still do. Sergei Kostitsyn, for all his skills and attitude, is not in my opinion. This is much more Vladimir Guerrrero and Wilton Guerrero situation than it is the blurry distinctions of the Sedins or the Courtnalls. One player if nurtured has superstar potential, the other with some guidance has a nice place on a third line and second PP.

I think us Habs fans need to be clear about this. First of all, we should not be holding the two brothers to the very same expectations. Secondly, we don't need to package them off together in our heads every time one of them does something we don't like. In other words, if Sergei Kostitsyn doesn't produce again and puts on a Winter 2009 sulk, I don't see why that should affect how we see Andrei Kostitsyn at all.

These are no Sedins.

Thank Goodness For The Russians

From the time they first aired Kovalev's discontent a few seasons ago, the Russian newspapers have been a trusty source of down-time material for Canadiens beat reporters and bloggers. Reliability apart, you have to hand it to the Russian reporters, they do talk to players and they do look for stories.

In the summer lull, with the Canadiens media crew taking a much-needed break, the reports form Russia these days offer a nice contrast to the old faithful stories – new material.


Sergei Kostitsyn

RDS reports on an interview that Sergei had with a Belarussian newspaper (uncited). While it's not much of a story (certainly not in its summary form). He talks about the media pressure in Montreal and about his late season demotion to the AHL. Apparently he thinks it has everything to do with his gambling buddy and nothing to do with his lazy line changes and 10-game slumps.

I'll try to track down the full thing, since Sergei is a great interview and is known for controversial and often funny quotes (Puck Daddy, CKAC and Japer's Rink)


Alexander Avtsyn

A great tip from Robert over at Habs Eyes on the Prize on this Andrei Avtsyn interview over at Russian Prospects.

He goes through a number of questions providing lots of interesting answers. This is not the fluff of what's on your ipod or who's your favourite Will Ferrell character stuff. I suggest a read if you have any interest in this player.

The best bit for me was about the Canadiens media training courses. Avtsyn (probably giving away more than he should) says this:

"We had a very interesting meeting about ties with journalists. They teach us how to work with the camera. And also that journalists usually ask the same questions (pause, sly [moan]) ... That it’s better to anticipate questions, never be ashamed, always smile and reply calmly. (smiles)"

Funny kid. Funny that he'd tell the journalist asking him the questions how he's been told to answer the questions. To be fair to the Russian journalist, he's no Renaud Lavoie – he digs for something interesting here.


Alexei Emelin

RDS dug around the Russian press again for a story (uncited), which you may have all read. Once again, its a mere summary with a couple of quotes.

Apparently, our estranged prospect Alexei Emelin may not be as estranged as we thought. He says:

"Nous ne nous sommes pas entendus avec le Canadien sur les termes d’un nouveau contrat, affirme l’espoir du club Montréalais. Ils n’ont pas laissé tomber dans mon cas et nous gardons contact avec eux. J’espère toujours me faire une niche dans la Ligue nationale de hockey."

We didn't come to an agreement with the Canadiens on a contract, but they have not dropped me from their plans – we will still be in touch. I continue to hope that I will one day be able to make a place for myself in the NHL.

Good news for the organization, as you know burning bridges is never a good thing. And one never knows what injuries, trades and developments may happen to make a place for Emelin seem more feasible in the future.


Andrei Markov

Not from a Russian newspaper, but some Russian-related news.

Fan House's Adam Gretz (pseudonym or convenient name for a hockey writer?) is compiling a list of the top 50 players in the NHL based on play alone. He does add the disclaimer that it's all his own subjective take on things (something I can relate to loads). Anyway, he's up to #41 on the list and has already included the only Habs player, with Andrei Markov at #42.

One biased writer to another, I think he has it wrong. I watch Markov a lot and think it's unfair that he limits his praise:

"While he's prone to the occasional turnover at the wrong time, Markov is still more than capable in his own end, and one of the elite defensemen in the league when it comes to leading a power play and providing offense from the blue line."

For me he's one of the best defenders I've seen – not just capable. And show me one who isn't prone to an occasional error. I thought you'd be suitably incensed as well, so I brought it up.

Incidentally, before Four Habs Fans scooped up this story and made it their own, I was going to do a whole article on it. Suffice to say that I scanned NHL rosters and came up with about 19 players that I could definitively say were better than Markov at any position. I then classified a further 25 as his equal to marginally better/worse. So worst case scenario for me is that Markov is 45th, best case 20th. I feel the writer took the wrong bias. What about you guys? For example, is Markov not better than Corey Perry? Alexander Semin? Daniel Sedin? Martin Havlat?

The NHL seems to think he is at least better than all but 5 Russian players in the NHL, with the glaring question mark about Gonchar (and the relevance of defensive play) the only thing keeping him from #5.


Happy reading. Желаю хорошо провести выходные. (I hope that's right...)