Axes To Grind

When I got back from the weekend I was almost astounded to read one of the headlines that was waiting in my Google reader:

"AK-46 had 20 goals last season, but too often fired blanks"

The positive energy of training camp, the freshness of a new season, the sudden flood of possible stories and a reporter comes up with this?

I can tell you, I didn't have to click on the link to know who had written it. The pot calling the kettle black (for Kostitsyn could probably respond about the reporters own season of stories in kind) was none other than the same guy who on hearing a report of Kostitsyn's quote in Belarus declared with immediate effect that he must go.

I wrote back then that it might do the guy some good to have a deeper look into things. But then I'd probably rather he set his priorities first on making sure to take a deeper look into ideas for stories or text to back up his inflammatory headlines before he dedicates too much time to stats crunching.

The story itself was pointless. It actually said nothing to back up the headline. Kostitsyn too often fired blanks, he said. The evidence? Didn't bother to include much -- a single sentence talking about goalless streaks for the 20 goal-man who played in 81 games (for those keeping track that means he couldn't have possibly scored in 61 games, the fact that some were back to back is hardly too surprising). The rambling piece instead re-reported news we'd heard a month before together with some re-hashed square peg quotes for the round hole premise.

I'd link the piece for you, but take my word for it, it's not really worth reading.

Besides, you're sure to read the same piece again and again from a multitude of sources by next Monday at the rate the grinding stone has been spinning.


A story missed

It's a shame too, because the blindness caused by grudge has left some real reporting by the wayside.

This morning I was surprised to see more links with the Kostitsyn name in my inbox. But this time, instead of the continuation of some bitter reporters agenda, it was a report on Andrei's brother Sergei and Ruslan Salei -- the training partner and mentor recently lost in the Yaroslavl air disaster.

Thinking about it and remembering the nonsensical questions that were asked of Andrei Kostitsyn on the day of a charity golf tournament, it today seems a shame that we don't have a reporter clued in enough to have asked the guy about the loss of a Belarussian teammate and mentor of his own. One must think that Andrei has thoughts on the matter as he like many friends of the tragically deceased players try to come to grips with the loss. What must he think of those who instead dwell on a newspaper report that they never read themselves?





Those of you that read this blog will know that it's no secret we like Kostitsyn. His skill tantalized us and we became early adopters as fans. I've often been puzzled by the dislike for the player who scores 20 goals in bunches like every 20 goalscorer must. But coming off last season, where Andrei improved his defensive play and took fewer penalties and largely took his assignments without a sulk and still looks top in many categories if you care to look into the stats, it felt like axes were being ground.

I would like to call for a better approach of reporting. I'd say put the axes away, but I don't mind strong opinions one way or the other, if I'm honest. I just feel I've had enough wasted clicks by big headlines that promise a meaty opinion and deliver lukewarm leftovers. High time to start backing up those big headlines.

Dustin Boyd Demoted

The news out of Montreal today is that Corsi's nightmare, Dustin Boyd has been put on the track for relgation to Hamilton.

Of course, he has to clear waivers to do it, so most outlets have taken the chance to headline this move with "Boyd placed on waivers" sometimes to stir up a Kostitsyn for nothing discussion. The reality he has to clear waivers to be sent down. This headline doesn't necessarily mean the same thing as it did pre-lockout.

I think we all thought that getting Dustin Boyd was a good idea in the summer. Team Canada junior, learned other defensive systems, plays a simple game, meant to be physical. I think we all thought it was an even better idea after a single game when he left the ice on pace for 82 goals.

So 8 games of play later have we overturned our verdicts?

I can only speak for myself when I say. Not really, and I don't really know.

Dustin has been an OK addition to what has at times been a good team. I never thought he stood out as exemplary, nor did I ever expect he would. He pretty much fulfilled my expectation. His demotion can probably be viewed trough the classic Darchian lens where not all player moves are entirely to do with the player in question. In this case, the Montreal Canadiens can't score, Boyd probably never would have anyway, so in order to promote someone who might, they need to demote someone.


Promotion coming?

There's no word yet, but putting a player through waivers to save his salary would be a bit miserly from the Molsons. I think we all think this is the smoke before the promotion fire.

Here's the Hamilton scoring list for consideration.

Like for like enthusiasts have put their money behind Ryan White, whom I like. Wishful thinkers look to Desharnais. And those who remember Martin's fixations of September suggest Palushaj. Apart from not doing anything, which i still think is possible, i would only add that the possibility still remains of promoting another defender. Yannick Weber is NHL tested and AHL heated.

What do you all think will be the associated promotion if any?
(See poll adjacent)


Not entirely related (paraphrased, out of the context of the thread, that's a warning for you PF), but I found this quote from a fan funny:

"So long Justin, nice to have known you."

I think that pretty much sums up the impression he has made on a lot of fans.

Seregi Kostitsyn Traded For... Nothing

So Sergei Kostitsyn was finally traded.

If anyone thought we’d seen the end of trading down after Ribeiro was traded for Janne Niniimaa then they’d be wrong. Sergei was traded as an RFA, mind you, for the chance to sign Dan Ellis and Dustin Boyd two days ahead of schedule. Consider that the Habs don’t even have room for Ellis (more on that later), and it’s the chance to sign Dustin Boyd.

But wait, if they do sign Boyd, it’s a compensatory draft pick due to Nashville.

So we’re down to Sergei Kostitsyn for nothing. Maybe we get a draft pick if Nashville manage to sign the Belarussian.

If the Habs wanted Boyd, they could have signed him first thing July 1st for the same salary and avoided having to give up a draft pick. If they wanted Ellis, they could do the same, though they might want to check back on all that talk about salary caps surrounding the last trade.

Whatever the case, it’s a downgrade in talent that was necessitated by the Canadiens inability to keep another youngster in line. Think the Habs are the only team with spoiled brats acting up at every turn? Hear of Patrick Kane? No, the Habs are only unique in their complete inabaility to contain matters and turn what may be a quiet and productive trade into nothing.

I didn’t love Sergei as a player. Nor did I subscribe to the idea that we should persist with his painful development. But trading players for nothing is a fool’s game. And our team is at it again…

Habs Vs. Pens Time To Give Byslma Something To Think About

The playoffs is a unique portion of the NHL seson.

At other times, it may suffice to devise one's own strategy and take it to each and every opposing arena. Not so in the playoffs. Because the opponent is the same every game and the stakes so high, all strategies are sussed out and countered by any coach worth his weight.

Thankfully for the Canadiens, Bruce Boudreau had no counter. All that talk of AHL success perhaps more pertinent now than ever in assessing his true ceiling.

The difference for Jacques Martin is that from here he will be facing people with mettle. Bylsma has won a Cup and recovered the Pens from the mess that was Therrien's reign. Claude Julien is showing he's so good at convincing players that trapping is winning that he's redeeming his reputation again. In the West, there are finalists at every corner, bar Vigneault.

But never mind any of them. The immediate task is to vanquish the Penguins and hoodwink Bylsma. Last game, Bylsma somehow convinced the free-flowing Penguins to stop shooting and adopt a congestive defensive zone. It was the perfect adaptation to Montreal's reliance on counter attack. It was possible because Martin's plan has been the same since the Washington series. it was read, understood and countered.

The risk then is that the Habs over-rely on this same system, sans tweaks from here on. It could work, it's a workable system. However, there's no need to be so entrenched. Martin has options.


My humble suggestion

Assuming there is no sudden surge in confidence in the abilities of Metropolit, Darche and others, I think Martin will continue to employ 3 lines with mixes.

Fair enough, I see his point. Play the guys of higher caliber more often. Pre-empt outlandish Crosby matchups if possible.

If I buy that, I don't buy the guys on the bench. Why have Darche, Metropolit, Maxwell (non-threats) sit there when you could dress Sergei the Terrible? Why trot Andrei Kostitsyn out with offensive donkeys when he could thrive with a mere 4 minutes of fraternal passing?

Come on Jacques. Bury the hatchet and give Bylsma something to really think about. Your new fourth line:

AK46 - Metropolit - SK74

Game #80 A Point And An Away Scoreboard Result Put Habs On Verge

Details

Date: 06/04/10
Opponent: Islanders
Location: Long Island


Loss: 3-4 (SO)

Habs Goalie: Halak (L)
Opposition Goalie: Biron (W)

Habs goalscorers: Plekanec, Gionta, Lapierre
Opposition goalscorers: Comeau, Bergenheim, Nielsen (Moulson, Nielsen – SO)

Play of the game

Haven't we waited a long time for a real beauty? Funny thing is, one comes and we have choice for others nearly as pretty. The winner for tonight's honour has to go to the goal that secured a point – courtesy of Maxim Lapierre. The play was all Max. He starts by taking back control for the team and looping back into the zone. A firm pass to Bergeron, who passes quickly to Darche gives Max time to slingshot through the neutral zone. Darche makes a nice pass to Max from blueline to blueline and Max challenges the coverage with speed. It starts getting beautiful when he splits the defenders and becomes Max's best ever when he calmly wards off the poke check clearance with a skate to stick pass. Taking control in time to outlast the defence and apply a deke, he then roofs it past a stunned Biron. Magnifique is what Houde sprung to. He was right. This is a reminder of why people get up in arms about Lapierre at all. Some talents couldn't piece together one element of this 5-part play.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Andrei Kostitsyn – Game Puck
Lapierre's goal was the class of the night, but Andrei tempted a few times with elusive skating, strong puck defence and threaded passes. I thought on the night, he was the danger man for the Habs. HI pass on the Plekanec goal was exactly the kind of play you'd hope for from a top line pairing heading into the playoffs (a bit of synergy and zip). 5 shots on target from 6 attempts to Cammalleri's 1 from 4, show that Pleks should be looking West with the passes for a while.

Maxim Lapierre
What he accomplished, he did in little time. There was the very important goal and also a very dangerous and well taken shot that nearly finished the game. 10:34 of ice all told will probably be a low for a while after Max makes his second dome in a week. He is forgiven for a shootout attempt saved, because he tested with a move that would have worked another time. Really, he couldn't have chosen a better time to step up his game, given Metropolit's absence.

Sergei Kostitsyn
This was a toss up. Our third line is a brilliant late season find, and must be the biggest reason for optimism for the playoffs as far as I'm concerned. Lines 1 and 2 did their jobs tonight, creating chances and confusion. Line 3, however, went beyond. The line seemed to be a good bet for the Habs. Dominic Moore was once again a dynamo, and he narrowly misses here. Sergei gets the final nod for a couple of reasons. First, Sergei played a mean game positionally in the offensive zone – always using his body to preserve the puck he now seems to want so badly. Second, there were silky passes we hadn't been seeing early in the season. His play to nearly end the game (against the post) was sublime.

Defencemen

Ryan O'Byrne
I don't want to belittle Ryan, but some teams suit him – the Islanders is one of them. The young team is not organized in attack and prone to a big body erasing the overeager puck carrier. Tonight Ryan did that with regularity. Positioning his body to win the puck was his major skill. The scorekeeper calling him for 10 hits shows us he often times also made the boards echo with Islanders. For me, this represents a high in what has been a good little progression for the student O'Byrne.

Andrei Markov
If you read the premise behind the dome carefully, it says we will choose the six players we want to play, the six best players. Markov, with such wealth of skill, must be beaten then by a significant effort to warrant exclusion. Tonight I didn't feel anyone was up to that mark. Andrei didn't play his best game, but he was at least as good as Gill, Bergeron and Hamrlik and probably better than Gorges. The stats sheet says this was Bergeron's dome, only bad passes are bad passes to me, whether punished or not. What's more, Andrei has some great PP minutes himself, even if not rewarded with a GF. Interesting is that Jacques Martin managed Andrei's minutes in this one to the point of madness – Markov played a mere 21:09, and his even strength minutes were lowest on the squad.

Goaltender

Jaroslav Halak
Today we heard that numbers are for bean counters. This game offered a lot of beans. 42 shots were directed at Halak in game play, 39 were saved. Critics will say that most were innocuous, and critics would be dead on there. Still, Halak probably did make 8 or so pretty big saves, including one sensational stop on Tavares. In the end, Halak gave his team a chance to win. He also missed a shot that led to OT and played a weak effort on the first shooter. Most important in the end were the saves, a game that goes to OT 3-3 with 42 shots allowed is not one to beat up a goalie too harshly for. A goal allowed at the end of the second, another in the first, or earlier in the third might have changed the complexion and cost the single point.

Comments

I'm sure we all expected a win tonight. The underpowered Islanders with no reason to win were amrked as an easy obstacle to qualification. But as we should well know in this of all seasons, nothing is decided. The Islanders are a young team, learning on the fly and experimenting on the go. They start a goalie hanging onto a career and veteran players showcasing for a way out. They had little to play for in the playoff race, perhaps, but much to play for as individuals. The first period this seemed to stun the Canadiens as much as it did the Habs fan majority in Uniondale. However, by the second, I thought the Habs were putting a firm grip on things. Turning points, good goals and a shootout later and it's a good spectacle and a point. I can't say that from the first period deficit in goals and play that I'm disappointed with the swing it took.

The biggest reason to celebrate on the night are the Thrashers and Rangers losses to convincing sides. New York offered little after a first period lead and rally and Gaborik looks likely to sit out a post-season yet again while Gomez might yet see action. Atlanta crash out in predictable fashion as Oduya can't score at the 50-goal level of his trade partner. Buffalo won to clinch the division and thereby ensure no Senators for the Habs (the desired result). And, Washington beating Pittsburgh is more good news, as the Penguins would be the worst case scenario in round 1 (worse even than NJ).

The NHL hasn't put an X beside the team in the standings, but the destiny rests with the team – who after a feisty effort, I feel are up to claiming it.

Game #73Ottawa Claims 5th Place In Tightly Fought Game

Details

Date: 22/03/10
Opponent: Senators
Location: Montreal

Loss: 0-2

Habs Goalie: Halak (L)
Opposition Goalie: Elliott (W)

Habs goalscorers: None
Opposition goalscorers: Regin, Karlsson

Play of the game

It was a strange game. Despite the downbeat take from RDS and the unenviable scoreline, there was some worthy play contending for this honour. In the final analysis, I thought Halak's quick pad save on Mike Fisher early in the third period with the score still at 1-0 was a key moment. It maintained the hope, if not the momentum, that a victory was within reach.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Brian Gionta
I believe this is what analysts would call a rich vein of form. For some time now, Gionta has been the major factor in the Canadiens attack, something he kept up in this game. The shots were there, and were it for a bit of luck or a bounce or two in a different direction, Brian's 5 shots and 10 attempts on net might have yielded another multi-goal game and further heroic acclaim. As it stands, the stats will only tell us he had a lot of shots.

Andrei Kostitsyn
I think it was right for some people to be worried about Andrei. The past few games, he has played adequately, but without fire. Well, tonight he reignited the fire. Of all the forwards, I actually thought Andrei was best. Even in messing up plays, he seemed to make highlights – once making a pass of the game with his foot, another time turning a botched breakaway into a slick feed. Had this gone differently, I was going to be clamouring for Cammalleri. As it happens, I look forward to him complementing two players in relative form.

Sergei Kostitsyn
What a transformation from the younger Kostitsyn. Not only from the sulky days of Hamilton, but also from the solid, but unthreatening return to the lineup of winter. Spring, it seems, has added some pep to Sergei's game, and I'm convinced that of all the Olympians, he gained the most. He was lively off the puck, always fighting and skating good lines. And on the puck, he orchestrated some dangerous moves. Jacques Martin noticed too (though probably too late) as Sergei was transplanted onto a scoring line at the expense of Pyatt late on.

Defencemen

Jaroslav Spacek
Spacek played for his money on this night. Though we might have enjoyed a deflection or two on his point efforts, he still ran a solid point on the PP – banishing all memories of Brisebois, at least, with zone conservation as clockwork. Really the strength of his game was in the defensive end and in puck control. He played a decent defensive game, never turning to cross-checking or hooking to get out of trouble, instead trusting his instincts, his puck control and his partner. We might be taking this for granted now, but Spacek in this form is a massive upgrade on Brisebois/Dandenault/Bouillon.

Josh Gorges
Another solid game from Gorges. He was on the ice for both goals, but the second one certainly wasn't his fault. The rest of the game, I thought our 4th come 3rd defenceman did a very good job. If I could only find a way to be as calm as Josh while watching Hal Gill stumble around the ice.

Goaltender

Jaroslav Halak – Game Puck
The dome was a certainty. The game puck was a tight call. Halak played well tonight, making several instrumental and timely saves, but the goalless forwards had their moments too. What tipped the balance for Halak in the end was his total and utter calm in the face of waves of Sens pressure (and open shooting chances). The evolution that has brought him from jumpy and acrobatic youngster to the calm starting goalie we have craved for some time in one form or another.

Comments

This loss was a bad one. For the standings at least. It was definitely a game that one might have hoped for a storming effort. The effort, however, was not as bad as those who colour every comment by scoreline make out. In my opinion, the Canadiens and Senators played symmetrical games. Both teams played with relative discipline, both teams took about 30 shots, both teams had several dangerous efforts. While the Habs got the referee's on this night, the Sens seemed to get the nice bounces. Time and time again, the Canadiens seemed to end their build up with a pass just short or too long, a bounce just out of reach or into a Sens shin pad. The PP will be recorded as a failure, but had one shot seen its way cleanly to the net as Karlsson's did, the result and the analysis would say differently. The Sens first goal too was a marvel, as a pass snuck through our behemoth of assistant captain without veering off course to an expectant stick and unexpectant goalie.

In short, I think the loss was just one of those things. And for a team that seems to prefer to do things the hard way – almost predictable. I neither think this indicts their play of the past two weeks as fluke, nor tells us a thing about how Game 74 will begin and/or end. The Senators played with their peers and took the goals on a night when the game could have gone either way.

In the positives column, Gionta continues to be electric and Andrei may have re-awoken, Halak calmly answered the questions asked and the defence (if it didn't prevent first shots) cleared the zone well. Let's not also forget that Cammalleri might make a healthy return, which would be a boon to both the PP and the top two lines.

Final thoughts go to Travis Moen, who we hope is OK and free of damage to anything more than the bridge of his nose. Once again, the trainers and the medical system in place since McCleary must be commended for its speed of response.

Pacio Ready? No Says Poll

A recently closed poll on this site yielded surprising results.

When we asked: What to do with Pacioretty?

a) Continue to put him on a top line and hope he may score one day
b) Put him on the third line where he'll develop into a third round grinder
c) Demote him to Hamilton while we still can
d) Get him a shooting tutor
e) Change his number to something sensible
f) Get him into the weight room

I didn't expect there to be consensus. I didn't expect nearly two thirds of the sample to go for the extreme option of sending him to Hamilton. Very few went for the weight room or the third line, even fewer for persisting with the top line, or tutoring him on shoting at the NHL level. None agreed with my suggestion that #67 just isn't a good omen for the Habs player.


See the reason

I'll be honest, I voted once as well, and I chose Hamilton, but even so.

I'll go out on a limb and say that most of you probably chose the same way for similar reasons. Pacioretty is not bad player. In fact, he's a very good one. He seems to prevent goals like few others on the team not wearing a trapper. Alas, I don't think that's what we fans had in mind for the boy.

Do we need a 20-year-old shut-down man? Or, should the team work with the skills the boy has to bring them out – as a scorer (or at least a decent passer)? Do the Habs leave him with what he can manage for now and let him develop habits to follow? Or, does management get the youngster used to playing in scoring situation against competition he can actually compete with in that way?

It's a classic question, but a pertinent one, I think. Pacioretty was drafted highly because he could skate, is big and uses his body and balance well, and wasn't no slouch around the net. He's still that guy, but he's being trained to choose differently now: go outside, because you lose it inside; don't shoot, you can't score on NHL goalies; dump all the time, people anticipate your passes. His intelligence is to be lauded for adapting, but his confidence seems scarily shrunken.


The best development projects

In deciding what to do, I think it's worth a look at the best development projects on this team: Plekanec, Andrei Kostitsyn; and to contrast with the limper results: Sergei Kostitsyn.

Both Tomas and Andrei got good time and minutes in Hamilton. Both had top billing on the team and filled important roles. Once in the NHL, they came with some confidence and after some delay began to confidently deliver what was asked: goals.

Contrast with Sergei Kostitsyn who had almost no time in Hamilton and despite a quick NHL start has found it hard to crack defenders without also making mistakes (and getting benched). He too learns, and what he has learned is that to play, play safe.

Pacioretty may never score 20 goals in the NHL, but that was once the hope. I am of the belief that one way to ensure he never develops a scoring touch is to continue this way (i.e., options a) and b)). Hamilton may not be the answer, but it's probably better than the alternative.

In the meantime, how does it affect the Habs? Well they don't lose much offense that I'm aware of. They will of course lose a forward with a defensive conscience. The return of Sergei could offset that though. What's more, there are forwards to do that job with a call up or a waiver pick (Mathieu Darche, anyone?).


Thanks for all your responses, the surveys certainly add insight into this team and and indeed its fans. See the new poll on Max's replacement on the Plekanec line in the right-hand column.

Game #37 A Win, A Shutout, A Captain; Better Than A DVD Boxset

Details

Date: 19/12/09
Opponent: Islanders
Location: New York


Win: 3-0

Habs Goalie: Halak (W)
Opposition Goalie: Biron (L)

Habs goalscorers: Markov (2), Metropolit
Opposition goalscorers: None

Play of the game

Despite the Islanders territorial domination, the Habs really did give a lot to choose from tonight. Perhaps it was because things happened in a more smash and grab way for the Canadiens, rather than the settle in, stay-a-while approach from the Isles. The play of the game for me, after several reviews of the goals and plays was Jaroslav Halak's save on Matt Moulson. Which one you say? Well, indeed. The one which was built by the first passer, then Tavares, the Moulson as the tic-tac-toe candidate for goal of the month - that one. As the pass came behind the net, Halak had every reason to surge to his left to cover the post where Tavares was going. He did, and fast. But unlike some goalies who would commit all to that save, he calculated the slide to stop him at the post, taking away Tavares wrap-around dream without abandoning the shooter in front. As Tavares' sublime pass came one touch form behind, Halak moved in synchrony with it, keeping his balance so as to play the shooter with all his body. Moulson, then, was met with surprise as he did everything right in lifting the puck over the sliding pad. He was left to shake his head as Halak's blocker calmly guided the puck skyward.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome


Forwards

Glen Metropolit
Some players take a demotion as a reason to sulk. Some actually take it as a call to wake up. Glen falls into the latter group. Following his games of costly penalties and underwhelming play, he has awoken. In the first period he was player of the game with his energy and tempo. He was stealing pucks, winning pucks in the offensive zone and creating chances (if not goals). In the end the scoresheet did this selection justice, too, as he scored a simple, yet timely goal.

Scott Gomez
If this guy was only paid $2 million a year, you can mark my words, there'd be raving reviews. His play off the puck at times is exemplary, and I'm glad Sergei Kostitsyn gets such a close up view of this. In a game where the Canadiens played mostly without control, it seems only fitting to include one of the best harrowers. His work on the PK was once again a sight to see, and if you want to understand that recent streak of stinginess look beyond just Gill and see the Gomez injury timeline. In the end, the scoresheet also rewarded Scott, as he created the insurance goal through his other main skill.

Sergei Kostitsyn
This last position was more difficult to settle on. Plekanec likely would have had the biggest shout, but for his run in with unfortunate refereeing. In the end, it goes to a penalty killer. There was little to tease apart between the excellent work of Lapierre, Moen and Sergei here. But think a minute about that phrase: Sergei Kostitsyn? PK? Excellent? I think it's high time we recognise what a turnaround, what an achievement Sergei has here. Not only did he stow his sulk in a bus undercarriage, he has come to the Canadiens and is turning in games as the top penalty killer. He played 5:32 overall, a full 2 minutes more than Max, 3 more than Moen. Brunet may get on him for a rushed clearance, but this man of confidence causes no such complaint from Jacques Martin, I think.

Defencemen

Andrei Markov
How good it feels to write this. Yet this is no sympathy vote, Markov was the best offensive player tonight, and a solid defender as well. For those who had forgotten, or stats toters who never watch players before computing their value, Markov showed why the Montreal PP though good in his absence, was once great. On defence, he played not to cut shots, but a shutout in this game is reflective at least in part to the doggedness of Andrei to hone in on loose pucks. Oh, and you'll have noticed the headline. I am convinced that our captain returned this game. There's a reason why all three letters are still 'A's for the Habs in December, and it must be linked to the fact their captain would rather take the role in all but name. His play, his celebrations, his discourse on the sidelines, I saw a captain for the first time in a while.

Jaroslav Spacek
Playing with Markov must surely help, but I think Andrei could tank his partner similarly. Apart from his early fall, I thought Spacek had a good game. What set him apart from the others for me was his exceptional puck control on the PP - it didn't directly result in goals this time, but he was on the ice for that last pretty goal. Going forward, I think it will be important to have a player who complements Markov well to really turn this system around. As you know, I feel Jaro is that player. I think our first shutout in an eon gives a lot of credence to that.

Goaltender

Jaroslav Halak - Game Puck
They do make us wait, don't they? The Canadiens last shutout was last February 24th vs the Vancouver Canucks - it was Jaro then, too. In the meantime we've seen goalies play in shutout form a lot - mostly against us. What a pleasure then to watch a goalie come in and keep his concentration for a whole game. There was shutout written on more saves tonight than in most games we've seen since this tandem came along for us. Jaro almost seemed to will this one. That's not to say he was lucky. not at all. All he did was take the positional instruction and execute it without flaw. Apart from the play of the game, his saves on shorthanded breakaways stood out, his quick legs on cross-crease work made impression.

Comments

How many times to repeat the cliche? Christmas has come early.

The analogy is a good one though, because like children tossing restlessly in expectant sleep, we have been anticipating the moment of Markov's return ever since he wobbled off the ice in October. And though his return would have been enough on his own to warrant such a header, he did so much better. As he skated for us, we were a better team for having a top pairing of dynamism, and better second and third pairings. As mentioned, he also brings the general back to the defence and the team - a captain in all but name.

Before we get carried away, perhaps to address the slant of the ice in this contest. The Islanders did really have the initiative, the shots and the possession. I will support Jacques Martin's men in this one though. Perhaps not a pleasure to watch, they did certain things very well here. In giving away possession for instance, I found they often forced low quality shots while being very proactive on rebounds. No they wouldn't have gotten away with sitting on a lead as they did against the Sharks, Red Wings or Hawks; but this was the Islanders and the strategy of sit and counter-attack didn't seem so crazy as I watched. Because they scored when they did, they didn't need to press extra men up, and they seemed to be acting on instruction that they shouldn't. What's more, apart from the refs who saw penalties in run-of-the-mill plays and falls on their own whims, the Canadiens were disciplined on the whole, I thought.

Together with the previous positives from losses, the team does have a direction of travel now, and with Markov (and perhaps Hamrlik soon), it looks more and more like up.

Kostitsyn vs. Gainey Habs Won't Win The Way They've Been Going

Just a day or two ago, wasn't it, that we were full of Sergei's obvious change in attitude as he scored a couple of goals and made AHL defenders look like, well, AHL defenders.

It seems that Sergei was also full of the same bravado that day as (after reading our praise, probably) he took off to whereabouts unknown. The assumption from the Habs and agent was Russia, the reality is that they probably didn't look very hard. So from suspended to reformed hero to suspended to AHL commuter again – quite a drama down on the farm.

As the facts emerge, we may get to know more on the specifics, but know this – this is a standoff between Gainey and Sergei Kostitsyn. It is a wrangle over talent assessment, fairness, expectation, discipline and who's in charge. It didn't begin yesterday, it began a long time ago.


It goes back to 4th line duty, full-period benchings and of course that scandal and demotion that last saw Sergei in the AHL last February.

Sergei's beef, which several people (surprisingly Michel Bergeron among them) see eye to eye with is that the player has been wrongly overlooked. Anyone with a modicum of hockey watching experience can see he brings much more to the table than Greg Stewart, Matt D'Agostini, Kyle Chipchura or Georges Laraque, and probably more than Pacioretty, Latendresse and Maxim Lapierre. To put it succinctly, Sergei believes as do some others that he is the 6th most talented forward in the whole organization. he believes Gainey is cutting off his nose to spite his face.

On the other side, Gainey has a point. Sergei could be more mature, he could be more concentrated and more prompt. In Gainey's version, he must not only be setting an example to others with demands, but also thinking that Sergei could learn something from dominating the lower league and riding some buses again. He must think that this injection of fury could turn to desire and ultimately performance.


But really, setting an example? Who for?

If we read it as a lesson to other players, it's clear enough: Work hard, do what we ask of you and you will play and play well. It's a nice message. Now, I'm all for setting examples of people. but there comes a certain point when you have to ask, just who is Gainey trying to set an example for with Sergei Kostitsyn?

The next players in the depth chart talent-wise aren't learning anything, because they're all on the Habs despite their poor play and poor attention to detail in their work. While the players after Sergei in Hamilton are Ben Maxwell, Ryan White and Brock Trotter. If any one of them sees the NHL light of day in the next 5 years for any reason other than injuries, it would be a surprise.

My take here is that sometimes, at risk of upsetting the lesser lights, sometimes a GM just has to provide a little more care, a little more attention to the talent that matters. Since finding another 131-point OHLer in the 7th round will be hard and teaching those skills to the schleps that are on the farm already is a pipe dream, Gainey's imperative with Sergei needs to be to hold on to what he has, at least he can return his value in a trade.

I tend to agree with Michel Bergeron (twice in a day, I need a long bath...) who says:

Je crois qu’on est un peu trop puritains à Montréal. Les bons petits gars qui restent assis à manger des biscuits secs et à boire leur verre de lait, ce n’est pas toujours ceux qui te font gagner!

I think they're a bit too puritanical in Montreal. Good little boys who go to bed with milk and cookies – it's not always the best way to build a winner.

He's right you know. Imagine, Chelios had been fined instead of traded. Ditto Corson first time around. If Patrick Kane were a Hab, he'd have been traded by now for fear of tarnishing the tradition of the past – a tradition so sacred that it may take 100 years of losing (seemingly) and a new tradition of total mediocrity to overturn.

If anything is clear from this debacle it is that Sergei is not responding to tough love – at least not without tender explanation on the side. He's a prima donna with some primo talents. If Gainey and co. continue to hard ball him, it appears that everyone will lose, most importantly the Habs.

I think it's high time they take stock of this situation and begin to channel a lot more effort into keeping their most talented prospects happy and wanted. If not, well mediocrity for years.


"We should stop drafting Russians..."

Of course, this whole series of events gives wonderful fodder to those who camped themselves under the anti-Kostitsyn flag. It's a popular place to be these days, and it will be interesting to see whether those there now will pretend this never happened just like when they kissed Kovalev's feet in 2007-08. Anyway, arguments on trading them, whether they should play and where are all bordering on fair. But I've seen quite a few nonsensical bits around starting to pop up about how the Habs are wasting their picks when they choose Russians (or former Soviet citizens at least).

I have to be frank, anyone who says we wasted a pick on Sergei Kostitsyn is more than mildly delusional. Sergei was picked 200th overall in the 7th round of the 2005 draft. Usually, one would be lucky to remember the name of a player like that. To have mined 108 NHL games out of that player in 4 seasons since the draft is remarkable.

Not only does this show me that the picks have not been wasted, it shows me that we need to keep drafting Russians (and Belarussians, Ukrainians, Kazakhs, Latvians, etc.). They simply offer more value for the pick.

People often wonder aloud how Detroit has managed to maintain their excellence over the past decade and they need not look any further than this same mentality they take into the draft. Whereas the Wings have been as dismal as the worst NHL clubs in picking up North American talent from well-scouted leagues, they have made a living out of taking chances where they know their chances will pay off. Fedorov, Konstantinov and Lidstrom made the first wave of the Wings dynasty tick. All looked like high risk picks to those that have neither the patience nor the whereabouts to develop a European talent into an NHL star. The fact that they have repeated the trick with Zetterberg, Franzen and Datsyuk only further proves the point.

Now that the Swedish scouting game has been blown wide open (see draft, 2009), Russia really represents the richest vein of talent at its most untapped. What's more, as more and more teams shy away from the hassle that a few long distance phone calls and maybe some disappointments after a long tease (instead of a retirement straight out of high school) good Russian talent is slipping further down the rounds. Witness the Canadiens taking the third Russian player in the draft this season at 109th overall. Now, even if he doesn't actually turn out to be the next Ovechkin, you could never convince me he won't be better than Nick Oliver taken 110th overall.


Best case scenarios

For the Habs there really are only two scenarios that work from here on with Sergei:

1) Gainey gets him to calm down long enough (months) to start excelling in the AHL, calls him up and then trades him for similar value

2) Gainey gets him to calm down long enough (days/weeks) to start playing in the AHL so the GM can save face, calls him up and he replaces the blank-firing youngsters we currently carry night-in, night-out on the roster with panache and attitude of his best vintage


I thoroughly hope that it ends up being one of these. As I indicate, both routes require a bit of work for Gainey, which we know is asking a lot in his holiday months of August to June...

Habs Rough Start Was Expected

The Canadiens with their new defence, attack and coach are living up to all the predictions we ever made about adjustment periods. The start has been rough. They've lost 5, they could have lost 7 – mind you they've won 2 and might have won another 2.

To add insult to injury, though Tobalev's been up on the game reports, I've been having an extremely rough start to the season myself. I have to apologise for that. I have been very busy working on a side project about the history of swimming that turned out to be much more interesting and thus much more time-consuming than originally anticipated. Anyway, I'm done that now, so you needn't worry about 4 days between posts for the next while.

Next, how about the Habs get their acts together?


What's wrong anyway?

Markov being injured doesn't help at all. The balance of good goaltending to average shows in the standings. The PP has lost a QB and the main zone winning and coverage drawing element too.

Also, we mustn't forget that all those pundits who fretted about too many changes on the Canadiens (including the coaching staff) did so because they were drawing on the experience of other overhaul experiments. It takes more than two weeks to learn how a defence partner positions himself, more than a fortnight for a passer to find his wingers on instinct alone. The coaching change too was massive, meaning even the incumbent players are newbies on the rebranded Habs. It'll take time to unlearn Carbo's system from the past few years. Imagine players who've been playing so unfettered for their whole careers – for them the Martin system will be at least a year-long project.

And then, on top of it all, I think the players are having trouble adapting to their new physical training regime, which from the sounds of it preseason was a lot more intense than they have ever been used to. You can see the Habs come out flying, but flagging as the game rolls on – signs of early fatigue and conditioning issues.

Unfortunately for those of us watching the standings, the only remedy for all of these issues is patience. And a healthy dose.

I understand that patience is hard to find in the 7th year of the 5-year plan. I understand because I feel it too. My trick is to remember last year. Last season, the Canadiens came out extremely strongly – firing on many cylinders. By December they were solidly in 4th (and were it not for the Bruins amazing feats of shooting and save perfection of last fall) would have also been vying for the conference lead. The team had 3 legitimate all-star shouts, a scarily solid looking top 4 on defence and a strong offence without overly taxing Kovalev. Of course, we all remember how that ended.

Of course the teams that we don't watch mostly started slower than the Canadiens, yet at least 3 teams who lagged behind by the yuletide season outperformed our Habs in the balance of their games. That one of them was Pittsburgh must be of some comfort. Philly started last season's first 7 at 0-3-4. St. Louis made the playoffs from 14-22-2 in early January; Minnesota missed from a 6-0-1 start.

Every year has stories like these. Every year we are served with the lesson of patience, of waiting to see how things unfold. But just as blogs and papers need to be written daily, so too the fretting about every mis-step, every stray pass, every loss.


Take the positive

It might be highly optimistic to ignore all that's clearly wrong and focus instead only on the positive morsels we've been tossed. But really, why not? Sure the optimist will be the one who stands wrong at the close of the campaign if the Habs really do never score a PP goal again, or if Carey Price and Halak do let in two back-breaking goals per contest. I'd rather be wrong with some hope than right about hopelessness. And so, the reasons to see the end of the tunnel:

1) Tomas Plekanec: He's been producing shots, chances, goals and plays again. He's already reached more than 20% of his assists form last season. We keyed on him for success and he seems ready again to deliver.

2) Acquisitions at forward: Gionta is great. Gomez is good. Cammalleri is tricky. And Moen is better than expected. Gainey's brought in some quality at the front. Though Gomez will tick along at 6% shooting, Cammalleri probably won't sick on 3.8%.

3) Even without Markov, the top three have been a top three: Thanks to Josh Gorges re-upping the ante, we do have a legitimate three to turn to. For their faults, Hamrlik, Spacek and Gorges have showed promise. If Markov comes back, Martin could go all Anaheim and play 5 and 6 for fewer minutes than Georges Laraque in a playoff game.

4) Sergei Kostitsyn has pride: It seems he does after all. Though he took some time to find it, Sergei might well respond the way Jacques probably hoped he would after a slap in the face. His 2-goal starring effort in the Bulldogs last win indicates he may post numbers that finally push the "great entitled" of the third and fourth lines to do something once in a while.

5) Curtis Sanford: The Cedrick Desjardins buffer has re-found his Moose form, which should he continue will press Gainey to do something about our current pair sporting early 1980s statistics.

6) The New York Islanders: Last season when their first (incredibly lacklustre) team all went down with injury, the Islanders iced an ECHL line and pairing nightly and still cranked out 61 points by season's end. The lesson for me is that every team should be getting 26 wins a year, it's the new floor.


There's more too. I'm sure you can all add. So patience all. When we said we'd give Martin time to establish his print, I for one meant it.

Bad Attitudes, Bad Habits Sergei Kostitsyn Not Alone

Didn't take long for my previews to be contradicted, did it?

Sergei Kostitsyn has been demoted to the Hamilton Bulldogs. I had him on the third line making our hockey team a more difficult one to play against. It seems that is something that will wait for a bit of maturation to take place (like a good cheese...).

I should also applaud the majority of you who appear to have this 4-horse race pinned as one between Latendresse and Pacioretty, as indicated by your responses to our poll.

Now it's easy to jump to lots of conclusions here, and in fairness most are probably close. The popular take is that Sergei Kostitsyn is being demoted because he missed the team bus. The extension on that is that he was yelled at (on camera) and was the player to put the most steps wrong at camp. But what is missing from all these tales of intrigue is the fact that Sergei didn't really have a very good camp.

Why is that?

Well, it appears one reason is that Sergei will be a new pin cushion for those that miss Kovalev's "floating", Koivu's "French" and Higgins' failure to live up to their own overblown expectations. Sergei is being tarred and feathered and being kicked off the bandwagon Canadien.

Countless good riddance comments grace the message boards and comment pages today – fans willing to write off a 50-point youngster as easily as that.


Attitude

Ever since his slumps of early 2009, and his subsequent public humiliation (despite being cleared by law) regarding shady associations, Sergei has been tagged a problem child. And while it certainly looks that way on the outside, with his atrocious line changes coming straight to mind, it might be a tad unfair on the young man. Unfair, because he is clearly not alone in needing an attitude adjustment.

You see, Sergei's attitude problems are overt, expressed in bursts, not often reined in. They're easy to spot, easy to bash. But if you think that we've rid our team of bad attitudes today, you are gravely mistaken.

Take this September. This was the training camp where competition for jobs meant that 4 forwards were vying for one place on a scoring line. It was the training camp where all four stumbled through the steps, did little other than the absolute minimum (at least in game situations).

This was the camp where a new depth of veterans up front meant AHLers who had been in line for a job would have to work hard to make impressions. It was a training camp where more players took steps backwards than forward.

Attitude for me doesn't stop at petulance, tantrums and sulks. Controlling those things are a minimum requirement. But as a fan, I would hope that the attitude being sought includes striving to be better, not just adequate; striving to win; and showing the willingness to work on one's failings.

In this regard, this training camp has highlighted the attitude adjustments needed from players other than Sergei as well; players like his brother Andrei, Latendresse, D'Agostini, Chipchura, Stewart, Lapierre, Gorges and even Price. A lot of young guys who are taking a lot for granted. My specific concern does lie with the battle for the 6th forward place, which was run at a canter and won by a player who missed time injured, never scored and played some good, average hockey with one assist on top-line duty.


Latendresse

I'm always impressed with Latendresse after he speaks, full of praise. He always seems to come across as having one of the best attitudes I've ever known in a prospect as young as him.

But when it comes down to it with Gui, it's really starting to seem like though he can talk the talk, he's not willing or perhaps able to walk the walk.

In the summer, I half-jokingly wrote him some tips on what he should be doing to step through the open door to the top two lines. From the moment he came into camp, he seemed as if he had read that. A summer in Ottawa training seemed to be paying off. But as time goes on in this camp period, what we're seeing is the same remarkable ability to let opportunity slip through the fingers as he's shown at every chance previous.

Yes he's scored goals, and he'll continue to do that. But he hasn't made his lines better on the whole. He hasn't been brave enough to actually be Holmstrom, though he likes to name drop Tomas near nightly. Is it fear? Is it anxiety? Whatever it is, Guillaume, if he really wants to help this team, has to have another think about his own approach and his career goals at this team-building exercise. It's no longer enough to keep saying he knows what to do, yet doing nothing about it. The time to procrastinate is done.


D'Agostini

Forgive D'Agostini for missing the boat, he probably never thought he'd be trying to make it in the first place. But just as the door was open for Sergei and Guillaume, so it was for Matt. Goals might have helped, but I tell you it could have been simpler – simple as not looking like one of the lower half of forwards most of the time.

D'Agostini also needs a soul search. If he wants to make a career in the NHL, he should probably reflect on the fact that his skill is scoring and his weakness is defending. Not usually the profile of the low impact third or fourth liner.


Different players, different remedies

As someone who has coached, I know that getting players to recognise their faults, to reflect and eventually (hopefully) to change their attitudes takes an armoury of different attacks.

In Sergei's case, I think they are getting it right. From all I've seen, he is someone who can respond to action. Rather than try to handle him with the kid gloves of the past, this demotion is the kick in the back-side that tells him he's not been good enough. Sure there'll be an outward sulk, but don't be surprised if in a few weeks we're talking about a player with 34 points in 24 games who's chomping at the bit to get his next chance.

I have trouble reading the others. If Guillaume's situation weren't complicated by being the buffer against no French Canadian players in the Habs line up, would he respond to a boot too? I'm not sure he would you know. I estimate that the day after, we'd be hearing from the same philosophical Gui, fully aware of faults as always, down on the farm – no fire lit.

How then to light his fire? It's tricky, but you know this retreat might be just the thing. Perhaps a little JM one on one with Lats can bring him around to the fact that he must act on what he knows needs be done. I'll cross my fingers.

As for D'Agostini, who knows? He was never really anything but the fourth horse in the race anyway. Perhaps all he needs is a few more days to get a taste for this NHL journey before he gets demoted to the AHL again. I don't know. One can only hope that with a taste of this nice new flavour they've concocted in Montreal, Matt would fight with whatever he has to make sure he's part of it.



There, I've said my piece. Though I fully agree with the Sergei Kostitsyn demotion, I am as usual at odds with the way some media choose to take this opportunity to single out one young player, while giving others their free pass, to vilify the Belarussian because it suits their agendas.

Have a good break. Thursday's coming.

Canadiens Season Preview: Third Line Offense

And now, the moment you've all been waiting for, Maxim Lapierre's third line:

S Kostitsyn – Lapierre – D'Agostini

Maxim Lapierre

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	79	15	13	28	+9	1	2	0.77	1.44	165	9.1	76
07-08 (MTL)	53	7	11	18	+5	0	0	0.60	1.55	68	10.3	60
06-07 (MTL)	46	6	6	12	-7	0	2	0.68	1.37	82	7.3	24

Even-strength profile
	Average GF at even strength Above average GA at even strength (Team best) Poor at preventing chances against even strength Negative CORSI: -5.7

Legend


Stats notes

I don't need to announce Maxim Lapierre's good season here. His evangelical following have already made short work of that task. Some of the intricacies of his game last year, however, are quite interesting; not to mention his career to date. To wit:

1) Goals and points per 60 pretty stable
Max's stats took a jump last year, but his pro-rated production was in the same ballpark. Simply put, he got more goals and points because he played more games and more minutes in those games. The implication for the future is that he may stabilise at this point, or may suffer if Martin uses him less than Carbo did.

2) Excellent plus/minus vs. poor Corsi
A few possible explanations here. Either Max did something special with his line to make all those chances he allowed less threatening to the goalie. Else he played against people who can't shoot straight. Or, he plain got lucky. Evidence from the shots component of the analysis (where the 28 SA/60 is above league average) says he didn't do anything too special. Something he did though must have been to the liking of Price and Halak who out did themselves with a 0.935 S% when he was on – something they didn't afford those teammates they didn't like as much as Max. I'd suggest there was a bit of luck as well.

3) Game-winning goals
Though I expect Max's goal total to drop, I think his GWG will be stable if not increase. I say that because that's the kind of player I think he is – scorer of important goals. Witness 2 out of 6 goals for game winners as a rookie on the fourth line.


Statistical regression is a bad term in the NHL, but it needn't be. If a team is scoring enough goals from the top lines, it doesn't need players like Max to chip in with their own. It needs players like Max to do the other things they do well. From this profile, Max is a player that shoots OK, passes fine and plays a game that more often than not benefits his team. Tip the chances for/against back the other way at the expense of goals scored, and I think he's an even more valuable player.


Tobalev on Lapierre:

Max comes into this season in a far different spot than he has ever been before. No longer is he the hometown hopeful, he is now becoming, in a way, the face of this team. He has never had to deal with this kind of pressure before and has always thrived in that ‘no-expectation’ world. He is now being counted on by a whole province to be a leader both on and off the ice. Will 12 goals be good enough after 15 last year? When the expectations are 5 goals and a roster spot most everything seems like a bonus. When expectations are 20+ goals and to be a dominant shut-down force – the game changes. Personally, I think he liked the Steve Begin role of unsung hero, will he like his new role? I really hope that he at least plays as well as last year, if not better, but wouldn’t be shocked if this career 3rd/4th liner returned to a very decent background-type player.

I think that he will start the season as our 3rd line centre. This is a role that I believe, in an ideal world, is filled by a slightly better player than Max at his stage of development. In fact, if things look rosy for the playoffs, I wouldn’t even be surprised if we upgraded at this position. 15 goals and 13 assists was a huge accomplishment, but he would have to do a lot better in his all around game to be an elite 3rd liner. I think he will take a slight step back offensively this year and will score between 7-13 goals. He won’t see much PP time or have very good goal-scoring linemates, so there may be less assists too.

All told, Max is a valuable voice and player on this team and his work ethic is unmatched by any on the team. That alone means I would have him up all year. Even if his numbers go down I don’t see his effectiveness in other areas (agitation, defensive play, penalty-killing) being too adversely affected.


Where Lapierre will start 2009-10: Team poster boy

Where Lapierre will end 2009-10: Mature checking centre who scores important goals

Points: 11 G, 13 A, 24 Pts



Matt D'Agostini

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	53	12	9	21	-17	3	1	1.01	1.77	116	10.0	16
07-08 (MTL)	1	0	0	0	E	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.0	2

Even-strength profile
	Poor offensive and defensive results on the ice (GF/GA) at even strength Top 20% in creating chances at even strength Below average defense Positive CORSI: +2.1 (Best on the Habs)

Legend


Stats notes

After watching D'Agostini play, I would never have guessed at that colourful a profile for the guy. Here's what interests me:

1) Best Corsi on the team
Is this even possible? His positive Corsi is fuelled by the excellent creation of offensive shooting opportunities by his lines. Amazingly, more shots than not also went on net (54% – which is high for the Habs). Certainly a valuable stat to add.

2) Atrocious plus/minus
Polar opposite of Max here. It seems like Matt, on average was hard done by – by both his goalie and the oppositions. Usuaully a positive Corsi provides would correlate well to a positive plus/minus (why else would we be bothering with it, after all?). Matt's high chance creation actually resulted in below average goal production – he did play with Dandenault and Laraque a bit. The goalies let him down badly too – to the tune of 0.877.

3) 12 goals as a rookie
I bring up this stat because it clouds the profile. Behind the number we should remember that Matt scored 8 goals in what seemed as many shifts to start his NHL career with gusto beside Saku Koivu. After he was placed with lesser passers, he struggled.


An interesting player with interesting stats. Though, there were 8 goals with Koivu, you can't just throw 12 goals out the window. After all, we're putting a 14 goal man on line #2. Also, if his luck improves, Matt's propensity to produce more chances than he permits will be an asset to any line he's on – regardless of how many goals he eventually produces.


Tobalev on D'Agostini

Marcel Hossa or Michael Ryder? It is hard to tell with Matt which way he will go really. He was never touted as a can’t-miss prospect and I think we would all admit that his play was a very pleasant surprise. So, if he faded away, back to Hamilton and beyond I wouldn’t be too shocked. The Habs, however, seem to have turned a corner in the way they develop their youngsters and I am thinking that, unlike many before him, he will be given his fair chances by the new coaches.

I see D’Agostini playing some of the year on one of the top 2 lines, but I don’t really see him sticking. The problem then becomes the fact that he isn’t yet an ideal 3rd or 4th liner, so where does he go? Aside from some top-2 line action I would expect us to see him, despite where I would place him, on the 3rd line and even back with the ‘Dogs for a period. Being realistic I think we have a potential Chris Higgins here, but he needs time. He is a player that should focus on his two-way game if he ever wants a permanent NHL job. I could see him getting 30 points this year, but wouldn’t be at all shocked if he got less than 20, maybe even less than 10.


Where D'Agostini will start 2009-10: Least sexy choice for the forward line up

Where D'Agostini will end 2009-10: A fixture on the team

Points: 10 G, 12 A, 22 Pts


Sergei Kostitsyn

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	56	8	15	23	-3	5	1	0.61	1.74	74	11.0	64
07-08 (MTL)	52	9	18	27	+9	3	0	0.72	2.17	49	18.4	51

Even-strength profile
	Average offensive chances and conversion even strength Even player, with low events while on ice Bottom 20% in chance prevention at even strength Negative CORSI: -12.0 (Worst among Habs forwards not named Laraque)

Legend


Stats notes

Another mixed bag of stats. Sergei's stats present a few things that stand out for me:

1) Low shots
Low shot totals for him personally and then, obviously, for the lines he's a part of. If the new philosophy is to shoot more, Sergei will have to learn a new skill. Low shots also translates into goals and assists for Sergei as he posts twice as many assists as goals – much preferring the pass, even though he has a respectably good shooting percentage.

2) Good plus/minus
Last year, -3 in a tumultuous year. Rookie season, +9. It's good stuff and points to some attraction to the defensive aspects of hockey. Obviously, his tendency from last year to be on the ice for more than a chance a minute (like most Habs) has to be curbed, but PK and defensive line are words that don't seem a foreign concept for Sergei – unlike his brother.

3) PIM too high
If the immaturity of Sergei can be captured in any on-ice highlight, it would be him slashing someone who has stripped him of the puck. Frankly I think his PIMs are too high for his role and playing time.


The low event player profile that follows Sergei is a bit strange, given his junior days. But watching him play, I can see why he, like Kovalev produces less shots per minute ice time than others. His current statistical profile gives him a good brief to play for that last top 6 spot. Potentially focusing more on his defensive fortes will make him a lock for the third line.


Tobalev on Sergei Kostitsyn

I am not about to forget that Sergei, at the age of 22, already has 50 NHL points in only 108 games. Considering all of the downs and controversies he has lived through that is still pretty impressive. The bad times, to me, however, are the problem. He has to stay out of trouble (both on and off the ice) if he really wants to stick with the big club. He has tons of potential and he even seems to thrive (at times) in this environment. The coaches should focus much of their efforts on Sergei as we don’t have many players like him; young, great hockey sense, good passer, strong defensively.

Right now, I like Sergei’s chances at getting that last spot amongst the top-6 forwards. He, as well as Guillaume, are the logical prime-candidates, but both still have a lot to prove. I think, if he focuses more on hockey than anything else, Sergei will spend the entire year in the NHL. He has proven to be a valuable 2-way player that has enough flare to keep things interesting. 20 goals isn’t too far-fetched, but I think 10-15 is a safer bet. I am also hoping that his passing numbers will increase and I would like to see him get over 25 assists. To me this is the year he has to prove that he is Sergei K. and not simply Andrei’s younger brother.


Where S Kostitsyn will start 2009-10: Battling for a job

Where S Kostitsyn will end 2009-10: Out of his brother's shadow

Points: 9 G, 23 A, 32 Pts


As a line

Line #3	Effect O/D
C – Maxim Lapierre		Helped most linemates be better defensively Most linemates lessened offensive output Played best overall with Guillaume Latendresse last season
RW – Matt D'Agostini		Seemed to make more skilled players better offensive players Made almost all his linemates worse defensive players
LW – Sergei Kostitsyn		Helped most common linemates be better offensively IMproved most defensive games Played best with brother Andrei last season

Unless Jacques Martin makes one of two grave mistakes, Max Lapierre will start the season as the centre for the third line. Who then should he be playing with?

As hard as it was for Max, I thought for Guillaume's and the team's benefit, Latendresse needed to be recognised for his offensive potential. That, teamed with Kostopoulos' departure means Lapierre needs a new line. Though briefly tempted to slot TK's replacement straight in on the third line, a look at Moen's stats (you'll see) made me scupper that idea in a hurry. So depth being what it is, next in was Matt D'Agostini. D'Agostini makes the grade for a number of reasons, not least of which is Max Pacioretty's waiver exemption.

Though Pacioretty may in theory provide a slight upgrade, D'Agostini does actually have more NHL experience and a half-decent record at turning the ice in his team's favour. Of course, I am assuming here that this line is not in the strictest sense as checking line for the whole season.

Finally, the wild card – Sergei Kostitsyn. For all his petulance, PIMs and sulks, Sergei actually plays a good offensive and defensive game and on average makes those he's on the ice with better players for the team. With D'Agostini in there, Sergei provides the balance of puck holding to wild shooting, defence to offense and studied approach to impetuousness.

There you have it: line #3 as I'd like to see it.



Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier

Kostitsyns Not The Sedins Time To Separate The Brothers

If I was an NHL GM, I can't tell you how tedious I would find it to have to deal with the Sedins.

I may already have a centre, but be very interested in a smoothe skating winger like Daniel; or vice versa, I may be on the lookout for a centre but wish to fore go the wing-man brother as I have been developing players of my own who frankly I like better.

Alas, to my chagrin, I am not an NHL GM. But I am a pretty big NHL fan, and I can tell you that it still annoys me that neither Daniel nor Henrik Sedin can ever be mentioned in a separate breath. You may remember the ranking of the top 50 players in the NHL by Adam Gretz at NHL FanHouse (mainly because he underrates Markov). He committed the crime I deplore, in that he didn't even bother considering the Sedins a separate entity and clumped them both together as the #21 player in the league (making his list a top 51...).

That's been an annoyance for a while, albeit a mild one. I've certainly never felt the need to write about it until now.

The need to put the proverbial pen to paper comes from the eerie parallel I see arising amidst Canadiens fans when they address the brothers Kostitsyn (a recent example can be found here). I just want to put that to an end right now.


Kostitsyns are not twins, not even similar

While I'm not that well placed to actually tell you which Sedin is the better player or whether they are even different people, I certainly watch enough Habs games to have a good feeling about our brotherly combo.


In my opinion, the Kostitsyn boys may be brothers by name, but for skills they may as well not be.


Andrei the shooter
I still have questions about whether Andrei likes shooting, because he clearly doesn't shoot enough. However, when he does shoot we are treated to a display we have not witnessed from one of our own prospects since the late 80s – an elite shot. Andrei has quick release, power in a wrist shot and accuracy when he has time to set. He has goalscorers hands and a shot that could net him 40 or 50 one day.

Contrast this to Sergei. His shot is adequate but is not released with either the speed or the weight of an Andrei shot. His shot is NHL level, but the level that all 10-15 goalscorers in this league possess, and the level that goaltenders stop with regularity when they see it. He's no corner-picking sharpshooter.


Andrei the strong
This is another area I feel Andrei has yet to fully develop, yet one that is there in flashes for him. When Andrei gets the puck sometimes you can sense that few defencemen in the league would be able to take it off him. Through a combination of body positioning and balance he seems to be able to muscle through the situations for which he can't make himself a free corridor with a deke.

Again, Sergei couldn't be further from. When people talk about running into dead ends, Sergei Kostitsyn comes to mind for me. Though he's tricky with the puck on his stick, he gets into trouble when the defender is ready and not buying his fakes. Smaller than Andrei, it just seems to me that he isn't at all as strong and that he just doesn't possess the momentum he needs to go through a defender, even if he wanted to.


Sergei the all-rounder
here I don't mean to say that Sergei is already an all-round player, because he certainly isn't. But one can see that the guy has at some point in the past recognised his limitations and has at east thought to develop the defensive side of his game. As I said, he's not a premiere defensive forward yet, but like Andrei with strength, you can sometimes see flashes.

I've been generous to Andrei so far, so I'll mete out a bit of criticism now. Andrei is not a player I would want to see on the ice when defending a 2-goal lead with 2 minutes to go. Nor would I want to see him on the PK. When I watch him, I recognise that he's just one of those guys who probably has never had a defensive thought cross his mind. He thinks offence and positions himself for that – that's all. It's fine, and we need a player like him; but I think it's a big distinction between him and his brother.


Sergei the weasel
Believe me, I mean this in the most complimentary sense. For you can't win any competition in a league full of weasels without some of your own. Sergei has this weaselling built in. It's clear. The Grabovski debacle. Those incidents with Chris Neil. He's a needler. he likes getting under peoples skin.

Does Andrei even know what a weasel is? Andrei, even in games where he seems possessed with energy and ideas is still the guy least likely to fight. The guy least likely to be slashing Jarkko Ruutu behind the play. To me, he seems a much more laid-back character, comfortable to play the game of entering the offensive zone, taking the chance and then reloading and trying again. The rest of the drama, he can take it or leave it. He's no Sergei in that department.


A couple of seasons ago, I opened the year with two articles entitle The Habs Future And The Two Andreis. The basic idea was that coming into 2007-08, the Habs were in transition but were starting to build around two vital pieces – Andrei Markov at the back and Andrei Kostitsyn up front. I still stand by all the gooey praise I had for both players back then.

My point here being that back then I believed Andrei Kostitsyn was a cornerstone player and I still do. Sergei Kostitsyn, for all his skills and attitude, is not in my opinion. This is much more Vladimir Guerrrero and Wilton Guerrero situation than it is the blurry distinctions of the Sedins or the Courtnalls. One player if nurtured has superstar potential, the other with some guidance has a nice place on a third line and second PP.

I think us Habs fans need to be clear about this. First of all, we should not be holding the two brothers to the very same expectations. Secondly, we don't need to package them off together in our heads every time one of them does something we don't like. In other words, if Sergei Kostitsyn doesn't produce again and puts on a Winter 2009 sulk, I don't see why that should affect how we see Andrei Kostitsyn at all.

These are no Sedins.