Canadiens Season Preview: Third Line Offense

And now, the moment you've all been waiting for, Maxim Lapierre's third line:

S Kostitsyn – Lapierre – D'Agostini

Maxim Lapierre

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	79	15	13	28	+9	1	2	0.77	1.44	165	9.1	76
07-08 (MTL)	53	7	11	18	+5	0	0	0.60	1.55	68	10.3	60
06-07 (MTL)	46	6	6	12	-7	0	2	0.68	1.37	82	7.3	24

Even-strength profile
	Average GF at even strength Above average GA at even strength (Team best) Poor at preventing chances against even strength Negative CORSI: -5.7

Legend


Stats notes

I don't need to announce Maxim Lapierre's good season here. His evangelical following have already made short work of that task. Some of the intricacies of his game last year, however, are quite interesting; not to mention his career to date. To wit:

1) Goals and points per 60 pretty stable
Max's stats took a jump last year, but his pro-rated production was in the same ballpark. Simply put, he got more goals and points because he played more games and more minutes in those games. The implication for the future is that he may stabilise at this point, or may suffer if Martin uses him less than Carbo did.

2) Excellent plus/minus vs. poor Corsi
A few possible explanations here. Either Max did something special with his line to make all those chances he allowed less threatening to the goalie. Else he played against people who can't shoot straight. Or, he plain got lucky. Evidence from the shots component of the analysis (where the 28 SA/60 is above league average) says he didn't do anything too special. Something he did though must have been to the liking of Price and Halak who out did themselves with a 0.935 S% when he was on – something they didn't afford those teammates they didn't like as much as Max. I'd suggest there was a bit of luck as well.

3) Game-winning goals
Though I expect Max's goal total to drop, I think his GWG will be stable if not increase. I say that because that's the kind of player I think he is – scorer of important goals. Witness 2 out of 6 goals for game winners as a rookie on the fourth line.


Statistical regression is a bad term in the NHL, but it needn't be. If a team is scoring enough goals from the top lines, it doesn't need players like Max to chip in with their own. It needs players like Max to do the other things they do well. From this profile, Max is a player that shoots OK, passes fine and plays a game that more often than not benefits his team. Tip the chances for/against back the other way at the expense of goals scored, and I think he's an even more valuable player.


Tobalev on Lapierre:

Max comes into this season in a far different spot than he has ever been before. No longer is he the hometown hopeful, he is now becoming, in a way, the face of this team. He has never had to deal with this kind of pressure before and has always thrived in that ‘no-expectation’ world. He is now being counted on by a whole province to be a leader both on and off the ice. Will 12 goals be good enough after 15 last year? When the expectations are 5 goals and a roster spot most everything seems like a bonus. When expectations are 20+ goals and to be a dominant shut-down force – the game changes. Personally, I think he liked the Steve Begin role of unsung hero, will he like his new role? I really hope that he at least plays as well as last year, if not better, but wouldn’t be shocked if this career 3rd/4th liner returned to a very decent background-type player.

I think that he will start the season as our 3rd line centre. This is a role that I believe, in an ideal world, is filled by a slightly better player than Max at his stage of development. In fact, if things look rosy for the playoffs, I wouldn’t even be surprised if we upgraded at this position. 15 goals and 13 assists was a huge accomplishment, but he would have to do a lot better in his all around game to be an elite 3rd liner. I think he will take a slight step back offensively this year and will score between 7-13 goals. He won’t see much PP time or have very good goal-scoring linemates, so there may be less assists too.

All told, Max is a valuable voice and player on this team and his work ethic is unmatched by any on the team. That alone means I would have him up all year. Even if his numbers go down I don’t see his effectiveness in other areas (agitation, defensive play, penalty-killing) being too adversely affected.


Where Lapierre will start 2009-10: Team poster boy

Where Lapierre will end 2009-10: Mature checking centre who scores important goals

Points: 11 G, 13 A, 24 Pts



Matt D'Agostini

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	53	12	9	21	-17	3	1	1.01	1.77	116	10.0	16
07-08 (MTL)	1	0	0	0	E	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.0	2

Even-strength profile
	Poor offensive and defensive results on the ice (GF/GA) at even strength Top 20% in creating chances at even strength Below average defense Positive CORSI: +2.1 (Best on the Habs)

Legend


Stats notes

After watching D'Agostini play, I would never have guessed at that colourful a profile for the guy. Here's what interests me:

1) Best Corsi on the team
Is this even possible? His positive Corsi is fuelled by the excellent creation of offensive shooting opportunities by his lines. Amazingly, more shots than not also went on net (54% – which is high for the Habs). Certainly a valuable stat to add.

2) Atrocious plus/minus
Polar opposite of Max here. It seems like Matt, on average was hard done by – by both his goalie and the oppositions. Usuaully a positive Corsi provides would correlate well to a positive plus/minus (why else would we be bothering with it, after all?). Matt's high chance creation actually resulted in below average goal production – he did play with Dandenault and Laraque a bit. The goalies let him down badly too – to the tune of 0.877.

3) 12 goals as a rookie
I bring up this stat because it clouds the profile. Behind the number we should remember that Matt scored 8 goals in what seemed as many shifts to start his NHL career with gusto beside Saku Koivu. After he was placed with lesser passers, he struggled.


An interesting player with interesting stats. Though, there were 8 goals with Koivu, you can't just throw 12 goals out the window. After all, we're putting a 14 goal man on line #2. Also, if his luck improves, Matt's propensity to produce more chances than he permits will be an asset to any line he's on – regardless of how many goals he eventually produces.


Tobalev on D'Agostini

Marcel Hossa or Michael Ryder? It is hard to tell with Matt which way he will go really. He was never touted as a can’t-miss prospect and I think we would all admit that his play was a very pleasant surprise. So, if he faded away, back to Hamilton and beyond I wouldn’t be too shocked. The Habs, however, seem to have turned a corner in the way they develop their youngsters and I am thinking that, unlike many before him, he will be given his fair chances by the new coaches.

I see D’Agostini playing some of the year on one of the top 2 lines, but I don’t really see him sticking. The problem then becomes the fact that he isn’t yet an ideal 3rd or 4th liner, so where does he go? Aside from some top-2 line action I would expect us to see him, despite where I would place him, on the 3rd line and even back with the ‘Dogs for a period. Being realistic I think we have a potential Chris Higgins here, but he needs time. He is a player that should focus on his two-way game if he ever wants a permanent NHL job. I could see him getting 30 points this year, but wouldn’t be at all shocked if he got less than 20, maybe even less than 10.


Where D'Agostini will start 2009-10: Least sexy choice for the forward line up

Where D'Agostini will end 2009-10: A fixture on the team

Points: 10 G, 12 A, 22 Pts


Sergei Kostitsyn

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	56	8	15	23	-3	5	1	0.61	1.74	74	11.0	64
07-08 (MTL)	52	9	18	27	+9	3	0	0.72	2.17	49	18.4	51

Even-strength profile
	Average offensive chances and conversion even strength Even player, with low events while on ice Bottom 20% in chance prevention at even strength Negative CORSI: -12.0 (Worst among Habs forwards not named Laraque)

Legend


Stats notes

Another mixed bag of stats. Sergei's stats present a few things that stand out for me:

1) Low shots
Low shot totals for him personally and then, obviously, for the lines he's a part of. If the new philosophy is to shoot more, Sergei will have to learn a new skill. Low shots also translates into goals and assists for Sergei as he posts twice as many assists as goals – much preferring the pass, even though he has a respectably good shooting percentage.

2) Good plus/minus
Last year, -3 in a tumultuous year. Rookie season, +9. It's good stuff and points to some attraction to the defensive aspects of hockey. Obviously, his tendency from last year to be on the ice for more than a chance a minute (like most Habs) has to be curbed, but PK and defensive line are words that don't seem a foreign concept for Sergei – unlike his brother.

3) PIM too high
If the immaturity of Sergei can be captured in any on-ice highlight, it would be him slashing someone who has stripped him of the puck. Frankly I think his PIMs are too high for his role and playing time.


The low event player profile that follows Sergei is a bit strange, given his junior days. But watching him play, I can see why he, like Kovalev produces less shots per minute ice time than others. His current statistical profile gives him a good brief to play for that last top 6 spot. Potentially focusing more on his defensive fortes will make him a lock for the third line.


Tobalev on Sergei Kostitsyn

I am not about to forget that Sergei, at the age of 22, already has 50 NHL points in only 108 games. Considering all of the downs and controversies he has lived through that is still pretty impressive. The bad times, to me, however, are the problem. He has to stay out of trouble (both on and off the ice) if he really wants to stick with the big club. He has tons of potential and he even seems to thrive (at times) in this environment. The coaches should focus much of their efforts on Sergei as we don’t have many players like him; young, great hockey sense, good passer, strong defensively.

Right now, I like Sergei’s chances at getting that last spot amongst the top-6 forwards. He, as well as Guillaume, are the logical prime-candidates, but both still have a lot to prove. I think, if he focuses more on hockey than anything else, Sergei will spend the entire year in the NHL. He has proven to be a valuable 2-way player that has enough flare to keep things interesting. 20 goals isn’t too far-fetched, but I think 10-15 is a safer bet. I am also hoping that his passing numbers will increase and I would like to see him get over 25 assists. To me this is the year he has to prove that he is Sergei K. and not simply Andrei’s younger brother.


Where S Kostitsyn will start 2009-10: Battling for a job

Where S Kostitsyn will end 2009-10: Out of his brother's shadow

Points: 9 G, 23 A, 32 Pts


As a line

Line #3	Effect O/D
C – Maxim Lapierre		Helped most linemates be better defensively Most linemates lessened offensive output Played best overall with Guillaume Latendresse last season
RW – Matt D'Agostini		Seemed to make more skilled players better offensive players Made almost all his linemates worse defensive players
LW – Sergei Kostitsyn		Helped most common linemates be better offensively IMproved most defensive games Played best with brother Andrei last season

Unless Jacques Martin makes one of two grave mistakes, Max Lapierre will start the season as the centre for the third line. Who then should he be playing with?

As hard as it was for Max, I thought for Guillaume's and the team's benefit, Latendresse needed to be recognised for his offensive potential. That, teamed with Kostopoulos' departure means Lapierre needs a new line. Though briefly tempted to slot TK's replacement straight in on the third line, a look at Moen's stats (you'll see) made me scupper that idea in a hurry. So depth being what it is, next in was Matt D'Agostini. D'Agostini makes the grade for a number of reasons, not least of which is Max Pacioretty's waiver exemption.

Though Pacioretty may in theory provide a slight upgrade, D'Agostini does actually have more NHL experience and a half-decent record at turning the ice in his team's favour. Of course, I am assuming here that this line is not in the strictest sense as checking line for the whole season.

Finally, the wild card – Sergei Kostitsyn. For all his petulance, PIMs and sulks, Sergei actually plays a good offensive and defensive game and on average makes those he's on the ice with better players for the team. With D'Agostini in there, Sergei provides the balance of puck holding to wild shooting, defence to offense and studied approach to impetuousness.

There you have it: line #3 as I'd like to see it.



Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier

Scott Gomez Setting His Place At The Table

The first news or interview of note to come out of RDS in a long while, and wouldn't you just know it, the headline deals with French language courses.

I don't want to dismiss the story, because it's actually a very good bit of news on many levels. They certainly clipped up all the interviews nicely. But should we be worried that no more than ten seconds into his interview, Gomez was asked the question: Do you speak French? Do have any connection with the French players? In this case it works out nicely because Gomez has a response in pocket, but will Spacek, Gill, Moen and Cammalleri have to ready themselves for this opening salvo?

I'm not going to question the situation anymore than that. In the end, it was a great question by the reporter because it gave Scott a great opportunity to talk about all the efforts he is making to come and be accepted in this town.

Speaking of which. Though it's been rather overshadowed by the quote and response to that, it must be noted that Scott Gomez was the only new member of the Canadiens to even attend this charity golf event in August. I think that on its own is worth applauding. Clearly Scott Gomez is committed and very excited for his new opportunity in Montreal. Moving to the city (almost as soon as the trade happened), making friends with the guys that are in town and just getting adjusted to life and the media here. It's encouraging to see his commitment. People have jokingly suggested he be made captain on the spot for his enrollment with a French language tutor, but you know what it's not so daft. Commitment to this team, so early, before anyone else – it's quite an example to set.


Maxim Lapierre golf tournament

Was anyone else surprised to see a golf tournament named for Maxim Lapierre? I haven't been keeping a tab on what the August charity golf event has been called year on year, but I do know that last year it was named for Guy Carbonneau.

I don't mean it as a slight to Max, who's clearly taking on a bigger role in the community here, but it certainly says a lot about how the lay of the land in Montreal has changed when they're naming their golf tournament fundraiser for a second-year fourth line player, doesn't it?

Incidentally, reports are that they made a very respectable sum on the day for their charity and exceeded expectation. The golden egg was apparently the chance to play hockey with Scott Gomez and his new best buddies Lapierre and Latendresse at the Habs facility in Brossard. The generous donor paid $18,000 for the privilege.

If I was paying $18,000 for a hockey game, I'd leave out NHLers for fear I'd never touch the puck. Though, I might leave in Latendresse to help my footspeed look a little better than it is...


Tanguay loses it

The other interesting interview to come out of RDS was the Alex Tanguay bit.

From the outset, Tanguay looked riled. Clearly his ego has taken a few massive hits this summer and he's put out about the whole situation.

Now, we don't know why Tanguay hasn't been signed anywhere or why no one floated him an offer ahead of Brian Gionta or even Hal Gill (with that money) in Montreal. There probably is a reason. I don't know if I've ever seen Tanguay so animated before, but one thing that was coming across to me today as I watched his interview was that he's one of those lucky people in this world who can go through life without anything ever being their own fault.

His sensitivity about treatment from the media is probably right on. I just feel that you get to this point of the summer without a contract, maybe some reflection on what you've done and what you may change in the future could be in order. Maybe he has been doing that – it just didn't come across that way.

I'll tell you what I remember vividly from the season though. Without ever for a moment considering that any player in the dressing room other than Kovalev and Koivu were organising people to stand against Carbonneau in February, i saw a Tanguay interview. It was after the firing of Guy, and I tell you something clicked for me then. It must have been what he said, or how he said it, but it immediately gelled that he was a guy who was not happy with Carbonneau.

This is what I wrote at the time:

We all spoke about communication, but yesterday was a revelation to me. Dandenault complained about communication. Begin complained. Carbonneau never spoke to Tanguay? The gist of what the reporters were saying was that almost to a man, every Canadien was dissatisfied with how their coach treated them.

Tnaguay's a very good player. I'd suggest he calm himself down and let the past transgresisons of the past fade away. Whether rightly or wrongly he may saddle himself with the label of bad attitude if he's not careful.


Where's Georges Laraque?

Conspicuous in his absence from the Maxim Lapierre event was BGL. To a man, every other French Canadian player from the Habs last season was at the event. That included Lapierre and Latendresse, of course, a jilted Tanguay and cast-offs Bouillon, Dandenault and Brisebois.

Of the latter 2 groups, Tanguay, Bouillon and Dandenault had every reason not to be there, if you ask me. Voluntarily putting yourself out to face the media after the July they've had would be like having dinner with your ex's parents the weekend she dumped you for another guy. They've all been shown up to one degree or another, yet all trot up because they've made a commitment and because a good cause trumps even avoiding humiliation.

But Laraque? He's still on the Canadiens. He lives in the Montreal area. He says he cares about charity work. Where was he?

Maybe he wasn't invited. Maybe he turned it down. Maybe he had prior commitments. Who knows? Just strange that's all.


Anyway, whatever it is, it gives me a good segue to a recommendation for an article for all of you from The H Does Not Stand For Habs about "The 260 Pound Elephant in the Room". From earlier in the week, it's a brilliant article on Laraque and the exchanges JT has had with him. Read it if you have 5 minutes.

Habs Review 2007-08: Maxim Lapierre

The numbers

2007-08
53 GP: 7 G, 11 A, 18 Pts, 60 PIM, +5, 68 Shots

Career best year
This season

2007-08 playoffs
12 GP: 0 G, 3 A, 3 Pts, 6 PIM, -5, 19 Shots

Career best playoffs
Rookie (same as above)



Plays of the game: 3

Game pucks: 0

Domes: 8

3 Star selections: 0


The story

Where he started the season
After the season that Max had with the Canadiens in 2006-07 and the playoff run he made with Hamilton, it was a shock that he did not make the team in October. I never thought that he would have a guaranteed roster spot, but thought that he had at least earned a shot to start the year in Montreal. So, it was back to the farm to once again prove himself. At 22 years old, he probably knew that making and sticking with the Habs was a big challenge, but let's not also foregt that 22 isn't too young either in the world of hockey. The way he would start the season (attitude and play) with the Bulldogs would likely determine whether he'd get another shot in the bigs.


The season
The Habs knew they could test Chipchura and Grabovski in Montreal early on and if it didn't work they had Max, who was NHL ready, waiting in the wings. In early December, Gainey finally made a move that saw Lapierre get called up, a move that would last the entire season. Max went on to play in 53 of the team's final 55 games and started each and every playoff game. Despite this ringing endorsement, to me, it seemed like Carbo never really settled on a spot for Max. Was he a 3rd or 4th line centre? Or, was he actually a winger? Did we want him to score, make plays or just simply agitate. This experimenting went on for most of the season as his linemates and roles were in constant flux. With 7 goals (10 over an 82-game season) he showed he could score, but was no natural scorer. His 11 assists left a lot to be desired from a 3rd line centre. It was his work on the 4th line, however, as an agitator or pest that seemed to be most effective. It looked like he could become a more intense, younger Steve Begin.

He enjoyed moderate success in this role during the latter parts of the season and even finished at a +5. In the playoffs, he was teamed with Dandenault and Latendresse in what can only be described as the token French line. The energy was lacking, the scoring was non-existent and their presence was not really felt. Those 3 were asked to be a third scoring line with 4th line ice-time – something that was over their heads given the way the series was going. It was a very weird situation as I didn't understand their roles and worst of all I don't think they did either. The playoffs (Max's first) didn't really pan out the way I had hoped for him as he ended -5. By the end, the Habs were relying on 3 lines as the French connection's lack of scoring and defensive blunders made it hard for Carbo to justify much ice-time.

Highlights: All offensive moments – not really showing what we appreciate about Max, but at least he scores on Brodeur...



Lapierre by the numbers: Canadiens.com

Lions' links on Lapierre:
Canadiens Changes: Part 1 of 2
Lapierre Signing Very Positive


Grade: C
Lapierre had moments where I really saw his value, but at other times he seemed quite useless. I can't blame this on his play, however, but rather on the way he was used. He may have been a scorer or a playmaker in other leagues, but in the NHL his role is obvious - he is a 4th line, energy guy. His value to Montreal lies in his style of play, his mother tongue and his workaholic attitude. To be fair to Max, he accepted each new role this season with a good attitude and that is what you need in a player. You never know when injuries, trades or other movements will come along and players will be asked to assume a new or different role. He proved this year that he is an NHL player and that we should keep him Montreal. The season probably could have gone better for Max, but then again it could have gone much worse. He saw a lot of NHL action, gained playoff experience and is starting to get noticed around the league.


Where we'd have him next season
At 23 years old, there is no reason why I wouldn't want Max back. He now has 100 games of NHL experience and 2 playoff rounds of experience. The team has to be careful though not to take too many players like Max. His value is obvious, but like I said before he is a 4th line player. This year should be the year where we strive to have 3 scoring lines and put players like Max either on the 4th line, in Hamilton or in the press-box. I would take him any day as my everyday 4th line centre as I feel he could play well alongside Kostopoulos and Stewart. If we ask more of Max, like we did this year, then I could see us hitting the same wall that we hit against Philadelphia this spring.

As we mentioned, it is Max's attitude that makes him most valuable. Never has Max once shown anything but a willingness to fight for a position and to play with a sense of pride. He has never cruised, tanked or displayed an attitude of entitlement like some previous young Quebecers (Dagenais, Ribeiro to name but two). I think the Canadiens need to seek out more young Maxim Lapierres if they can, so that they can build a legacy of a French Canadian championship hockey teams for a new generation.