A little comparison of the two rivals ahead of the upcoming series.
First up, goal scoring. The data I have here is regular season. On the left, Boston, in the middle, Montreal. For the fudge I did with Vanek in the lineup, I thought it would be fair to include his 4 playoff games as well -- it beefs up the number of games.
Showing posts with label scoring. Show all posts
Showing posts with label scoring. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
Friday, September 27, 2013
The Proposed Forward Lines
With the foregone conclusions of camp playing out in real time, we have now had a chance to read about line combinations and see them in action. Therrien hasn't changed much, but a couple of additions and action on late season feedback has led to at least three lines that seem set in stone. There are things to like and dislike about each:
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Other Things Kovy Probably Should Have Said
While he was about it, why didn't Kovalev empty out all the other thoughts that might have been crossing his mind.
Through my own private Russian scrambler, this is what I heard him musing:
On Summer 2011:
On Ottawa:
On "hard working" NHL players
On NHL coaching methods:
On tactical excellence:
On increasing scoring:
On playoff hockey:
Kovy's Corner
We know from watching the Montreal years and from the brief flirtation with Russian daily newspapers that Kovalev says entertaining things. One minute he's playing till he's 50, the next he's solving all the NHL's problems.
It sounds like another hockey pundit we know, vastly overpaid by the CBC for his out of date opinions.
Wouldn't it be fun if the CBC ran a second intermission slot called "Kovy's Corner" to juxtapose the views of a 2-game NHL fighter?
Through my own private Russian scrambler, this is what I heard him musing:
On Summer 2011:
"I guess I should have signed with Florida on Day 1 of free agency..."
"People say I've been banished to Hockey's Siberia. It could have been worse, it could have been Long Island."
On Ottawa:
"I really should take the lion's share of responsibility for the Senators woes. It really had nothing to do with Nick Foligno being on the top line."
On "hard working" NHL players
"If every player worked as hard to learn to skate efficiently as they purportedly do on every shift maybe the enigmas of the NHL wouldn't have to coast just so they could keep up."
"If I came to play every night like Steve Begin, people would still complain. And, I'd have wasted my time and talents..."
On NHL coaching methods:
"Is there anyone other than NHL coaches who thinks benching is a useful teaching tool?"
On tactical excellence:
"Spot the outlier: Defending -- track and chase. Attacking -- dump and chase. Enigmatic play -- hold onto the puck until an opportunity arises."
On increasing scoring:
"Memo to NHL: maybe if you want more goals, the trapezoid isn't the problem. 82 games, 12 serious practices, do the math."
"Memo to Junior hockey: see memo to NHL."
On playoff hockey:
"Why does the NHL feel it has to pander to the Don Cherrys of the hockey world?"
"Why does the NHL change its own rules in the playoffs to the advantage of the unskilled players in the league?"
Kovy's Corner
We know from watching the Montreal years and from the brief flirtation with Russian daily newspapers that Kovalev says entertaining things. One minute he's playing till he's 50, the next he's solving all the NHL's problems.
It sounds like another hockey pundit we know, vastly overpaid by the CBC for his out of date opinions.
Wouldn't it be fun if the CBC ran a second intermission slot called "Kovy's Corner" to juxtapose the views of a 2-game NHL fighter?
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Bashing Kostitsyn
A Quick Guide
When things don't go well (which apparently this year means losing two games in a row) someone must be held to account. By someone, it is usually safe to assume that we mean Andrei Kostitsyn.
If you haven't been watching your games on RDS, you may not have realized that Kostitsyn was the root of all evil. But rest assured he is. As a service to readers, i thought a quick guide on how to bash him properly might help.
Some basic rules
1. Use the gamelog. Games without points are bad games. No need to check any other source.
2. Don't forget to maximize scoring drought. If the latest pointless streak is preceded by a short streak with a few points and another pointless streak, it may be better to add more 0 point games in. Do both and see which looks better (i.e., worse)
For example, right now you have these choices:
a) Only 20 points in 30 games (53 point pace)
b) Only 9 goals in 30 games (25 goal pace)
c) Only a sinle point last game
d) Only 1 point in 3 games
e) Only 2 points in 6 games
f) No goals in 6 games
g) Only 2 G, 6 Pts in last 12 games
h) Only 3 G in last 21 games (the right choice)
3. Use aspirational pace. Using real pace for goals and points can cloud the issue (like Kostitsyn might actually be having a career best year), using aspirational goals (like 50 goalscorer) assures the best point is made
4. Compare him to players in the 2003 draft. Remember not to slip up and use the players you actually said Montreal should draft at the time like Steve Bernier
5. It's important only to mention teammates that make him look bad. Plekanec is a good bet. For others look at the scoring for the year
When and how to bash
Coming into the year, practically nobody expected Andrei Kostitsyn to ever score again. The inconvenient little streak, during which he was the best player on the team shouldn't allow us to forget those feelings and pointed summertime analyses.
Tune in tonight for a good second lesson. instructor, as always will be Benoit Brunet.
If you haven't been watching your games on RDS, you may not have realized that Kostitsyn was the root of all evil. But rest assured he is. As a service to readers, i thought a quick guide on how to bash him properly might help.
Some basic rules
1. Use the gamelog. Games without points are bad games. No need to check any other source.
2. Don't forget to maximize scoring drought. If the latest pointless streak is preceded by a short streak with a few points and another pointless streak, it may be better to add more 0 point games in. Do both and see which looks better (i.e., worse)
For example, right now you have these choices:
a) Only 20 points in 30 games (53 point pace)
b) Only 9 goals in 30 games (25 goal pace)
c) Only a sinle point last game
d) Only 1 point in 3 games
e) Only 2 points in 6 games
f) No goals in 6 games
g) Only 2 G, 6 Pts in last 12 games
h) Only 3 G in last 21 games (the right choice)
3. Use aspirational pace. Using real pace for goals and points can cloud the issue (like Kostitsyn might actually be having a career best year), using aspirational goals (like 50 goalscorer) assures the best point is made
4. Compare him to players in the 2003 draft. Remember not to slip up and use the players you actually said Montreal should draft at the time like Steve Bernier
5. It's important only to mention teammates that make him look bad. Plekanec is a good bet. For others look at the scoring for the year
When and how to bash
| Situation | Example |
| Just scored hat-trick goal | "It's about time" |
| During goal celebration (single) | "That's what he can do when he's not just floating around" |
| After a single point game (assist) | "Plekanec and Cammalleri were outstanding on that goal" |
| One shift drought | "Truly an enigma" |
| One game drought | "Clearly the start of a new slump" |
| Three game drought | "No points in three games, and counting" |
| Five game drought | "I'm not sure he'll ever score again" |
| Eight game drought | "Even Steve Bernier would have been a better pick up in the 2003 draft" |
| 21 games, 3 G, 10 Pts | "He played with Plekanec, he played with other players, he went back with Plekanec. Players need to look at their own performance. He was effective when he was involved and he gave us some good hockey occasionally (important to stress this word), but right now we need more than that." |
Coming into the year, practically nobody expected Andrei Kostitsyn to ever score again. The inconvenient little streak, during which he was the best player on the team shouldn't allow us to forget those feelings and pointed summertime analyses.
Tune in tonight for a good second lesson. instructor, as always will be Benoit Brunet.
Wednesday, September 01, 2010
The Habs' Top 6 Forwards
"There's nothing so absurd that if you repeat it often enough, people will believe it.William James was a keen observer of human behaviour. He could have been an observer of Habs fans.
In the summer, when nothing actually happens with our team, the only thing we can turn to in order to get a fix is commentary and speculation. While the foremost commentators go out of their way to substantiate what they say, much of what we hear and read by the end of the four month hiatus is mere repetition.
As you know, we're dissidents here at LIW. The onus of proof is something we strive for and hold others to. We don't like to hear again and again about important goalscoring, intangibles and supreme potential if it can't be borne out by examples and facts.
And so I com to the topic of our top 6 forwards. For a few years now, it's been a common gripe with Canadiens fans that the team needs just a few more pieces to really push it over the hump. The piece(s) that never fails to get mention is that of a top-6 forward who can score.
This summer, the griping continues as Pierre Gauthier went on a relative holiday from draft until September. Having done little to change the team as a whole, he has only made the tweak of Lars Eller to change the fate of Montreal top-6 scoring. While most can admit that near-30-goalscorers Gionta and Cammalleri are top tier guns and that Plekanec and Gomez can handle the mantle, the complaints usually fall to Andrei Kostitsyn and Benoit Pouliot as the figures who round out the group.
Now, don't get me wrong, I am not saying that an upgrade on either or both of the the wingers wouldn't be nice. I'd love to slot Parise and Bobby Ryan in there. Hoowever, I always come back to earth to remind myself that 28 other teams would fight with us tooth and nail were that feasible. By taking the broader NHL-wide view, the reality of a top 6 forward, and what the term really means in this league, is revealed.
What do a #5 and #6 forward look like?
For my research, I did a simple search for the forwards who scored the 5th to 7th most points on their teams. Compiling the list of about 90 (because there were a few extra 8th best scorers in the mix) I looked at games played, goals, assists, points, goals per game and points per game. To decide which 60 forwards made up the 5/6 forwards for this purpose, i chose the best 2 forwards on each team based on points per game. What I found was interesting.
According tho this analysis, the average 5/6 forward in 2009-10 scored 17 goals and added 21 assists in 68 games. That made for 0.25 G/G and 0.56 Pts/G.
The top 10 5/6 forwards across the league (Selanne, Hejduk, Knuble, Pavelski, Langenbrunner, Fleischmann, Bozak, Samuelsson, Latendresse, Cullen) scored 22-24-46 for 0.36 G/G and 0.75 Pts/G.
The bottom 10 5/6 forwards across the league (Kelly, Drury, Dvorak, Little, Avery, Lang, Brassard, Tanguay, Wheeler, Horcoff) scored 12-21-33 for 0.16 G/G and 0.44 Pts/G.
How do AK46 and BP57 stack up?
Benoit Pouliot: 39 GP, 15-9-24, 0.38 G/G, 0.62 Pts/G
Andrei Kostitsyn: 59 GP, 15-18-33, 0.25 G/G, 0.56 Pts/G
Benoit Pouliot is above average in both G/G and Pts/G, while Andrei Kostitsyn is dead-on average. Here's where they rank:
Pts/G: BP (19th), AK (31st)
G/G: BP (7th), AK (26th)
Pts: AK (46th), BP (59th)
Goals: AK, BP (T33rd)
Assists: AK (45th), BP (59th)
Based on raw numbers, it's definitely true that Pouliot and Kostitsyn lag behind. But considering the lengthy injury layoffs they both had, that seems predictable. When their numbers are averaged to take account of games played,they easily outrun the Chris Drurys and Chris Kellys of the league.
How do the Habs compare to other teams?
As we've shown, on G/G and Pts/G, the Habs have an above average combo, while in absolute numbers they fell short. But in dreaming of improving on this in the salary cap world, it's useful to consider the teams that do better and worse than the Canadiens.
There were 14 teams that had one forward better than the Habs #5 (Pouliot) based on Pts/G.
There were 7 teams that had two forwards ranked ahead of the Habs #6 (Kostitsyn) based on Pts/G: Washington, Carolina, Vancouver, Anaheim, Toronto (pre-trade), Minnesota (pre-trade) and St. Louis.
There were only 3 teams that had two forwards better than the Habs #5 (Pouliot) based on Pts/G: Washington had Knuble and Fleischmann, Carolina had Cullen and Ruutu, and Vancouver had Samuelsson and Raymond.
The flip side is of course that Montreal had a better 5th forward than 14 teams (one was tied), a better 5th than the 6th for 26 teams and a better 6th forward than 21 teams (one was tied).
So all in all, Kostitsyn and Pouliot offered a credible combo at 5/6 for the Habs, one that could have been above average given less injuries.
Lars Eller
A note on Lars Eller to end with. Should either Pouliot or Kostitsyn be found slipping in training camp or early in the season, there is some built in relief. While Eller's numbers don't scream superstar, it's worth noting that the AHL rookie scored similar numbers of goals and points as both Pouliot and Kostitsyn at the same age in the AHL.
So you see, it's not as bad for the Habs in the light of day. Maybe the next time the line is trotted out about the Habs dire need for a 5th and 6th forward who can score at an elite level, we should spare a thought for the GMs of teams dressing Curtis Glencross and Nigel Dawes and remember that the fact that it sounds so believable does not necessarily make it true.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Canadiens Season Preview:
Third Line Offense
And now, the moment you've all been waiting for, Maxim Lapierre's third line:
S Kostitsyn – Lapierre – D'Agostini
Maxim Lapierre
Legend
Stats notes
I don't need to announce Maxim Lapierre's good season here. His evangelical following have already made short work of that task. Some of the intricacies of his game last year, however, are quite interesting; not to mention his career to date. To wit:
1) Goals and points per 60 pretty stable
Max's stats took a jump last year, but his pro-rated production was in the same ballpark. Simply put, he got more goals and points because he played more games and more minutes in those games. The implication for the future is that he may stabilise at this point, or may suffer if Martin uses him less than Carbo did.
2) Excellent plus/minus vs. poor Corsi
A few possible explanations here. Either Max did something special with his line to make all those chances he allowed less threatening to the goalie. Else he played against people who can't shoot straight. Or, he plain got lucky. Evidence from the shots component of the analysis (where the 28 SA/60 is above league average) says he didn't do anything too special. Something he did though must have been to the liking of Price and Halak who out did themselves with a 0.935 S% when he was on – something they didn't afford those teammates they didn't like as much as Max. I'd suggest there was a bit of luck as well.
3) Game-winning goals
Though I expect Max's goal total to drop, I think his GWG will be stable if not increase. I say that because that's the kind of player I think he is – scorer of important goals. Witness 2 out of 6 goals for game winners as a rookie on the fourth line.
Statistical regression is a bad term in the NHL, but it needn't be. If a team is scoring enough goals from the top lines, it doesn't need players like Max to chip in with their own. It needs players like Max to do the other things they do well. From this profile, Max is a player that shoots OK, passes fine and plays a game that more often than not benefits his team. Tip the chances for/against back the other way at the expense of goals scored, and I think he's an even more valuable player.
Tobalev on Lapierre:
Max comes into this season in a far different spot than he has ever been before. No longer is he the hometown hopeful, he is now becoming, in a way, the face of this team. He has never had to deal with this kind of pressure before and has always thrived in that ‘no-expectation’ world. He is now being counted on by a whole province to be a leader both on and off the ice. Will 12 goals be good enough after 15 last year? When the expectations are 5 goals and a roster spot most everything seems like a bonus. When expectations are 20+ goals and to be a dominant shut-down force – the game changes. Personally, I think he liked the Steve Begin role of unsung hero, will he like his new role? I really hope that he at least plays as well as last year, if not better, but wouldn’t be shocked if this career 3rd/4th liner returned to a very decent background-type player.
I think that he will start the season as our 3rd line centre. This is a role that I believe, in an ideal world, is filled by a slightly better player than Max at his stage of development. In fact, if things look rosy for the playoffs, I wouldn’t even be surprised if we upgraded at this position. 15 goals and 13 assists was a huge accomplishment, but he would have to do a lot better in his all around game to be an elite 3rd liner. I think he will take a slight step back offensively this year and will score between 7-13 goals. He won’t see much PP time or have very good goal-scoring linemates, so there may be less assists too.
All told, Max is a valuable voice and player on this team and his work ethic is unmatched by any on the team. That alone means I would have him up all year. Even if his numbers go down I don’t see his effectiveness in other areas (agitation, defensive play, penalty-killing) being too adversely affected.
Where Lapierre will start 2009-10: Team poster boy
Where Lapierre will end 2009-10: Mature checking centre who scores important goals
Points: 11 G, 13 A, 24 Pts
Matt D'Agostini
Legend
Stats notes
After watching D'Agostini play, I would never have guessed at that colourful a profile for the guy. Here's what interests me:
1) Best Corsi on the team
Is this even possible? His positive Corsi is fuelled by the excellent creation of offensive shooting opportunities by his lines. Amazingly, more shots than not also went on net (54% – which is high for the Habs). Certainly a valuable stat to add.
2) Atrocious plus/minus
Polar opposite of Max here. It seems like Matt, on average was hard done by – by both his goalie and the oppositions. Usuaully a positive Corsi provides would correlate well to a positive plus/minus (why else would we be bothering with it, after all?). Matt's high chance creation actually resulted in below average goal production – he did play with Dandenault and Laraque a bit. The goalies let him down badly too – to the tune of 0.877.
3) 12 goals as a rookie
I bring up this stat because it clouds the profile. Behind the number we should remember that Matt scored 8 goals in what seemed as many shifts to start his NHL career with gusto beside Saku Koivu. After he was placed with lesser passers, he struggled.
An interesting player with interesting stats. Though, there were 8 goals with Koivu, you can't just throw 12 goals out the window. After all, we're putting a 14 goal man on line #2. Also, if his luck improves, Matt's propensity to produce more chances than he permits will be an asset to any line he's on – regardless of how many goals he eventually produces.
Tobalev on D'Agostini
Marcel Hossa or Michael Ryder? It is hard to tell with Matt which way he will go really. He was never touted as a can’t-miss prospect and I think we would all admit that his play was a very pleasant surprise. So, if he faded away, back to Hamilton and beyond I wouldn’t be too shocked. The Habs, however, seem to have turned a corner in the way they develop their youngsters and I am thinking that, unlike many before him, he will be given his fair chances by the new coaches.
I see D’Agostini playing some of the year on one of the top 2 lines, but I don’t really see him sticking. The problem then becomes the fact that he isn’t yet an ideal 3rd or 4th liner, so where does he go? Aside from some top-2 line action I would expect us to see him, despite where I would place him, on the 3rd line and even back with the ‘Dogs for a period. Being realistic I think we have a potential Chris Higgins here, but he needs time. He is a player that should focus on his two-way game if he ever wants a permanent NHL job. I could see him getting 30 points this year, but wouldn’t be at all shocked if he got less than 20, maybe even less than 10.
Where D'Agostini will start 2009-10: Least sexy choice for the forward line up
Where D'Agostini will end 2009-10: A fixture on the team
Points: 10 G, 12 A, 22 Pts
Sergei Kostitsyn
Legend
Stats notes
Another mixed bag of stats. Sergei's stats present a few things that stand out for me:
1) Low shots
Low shot totals for him personally and then, obviously, for the lines he's a part of. If the new philosophy is to shoot more, Sergei will have to learn a new skill. Low shots also translates into goals and assists for Sergei as he posts twice as many assists as goals – much preferring the pass, even though he has a respectably good shooting percentage.
2) Good plus/minus
Last year, -3 in a tumultuous year. Rookie season, +9. It's good stuff and points to some attraction to the defensive aspects of hockey. Obviously, his tendency from last year to be on the ice for more than a chance a minute (like most Habs) has to be curbed, but PK and defensive line are words that don't seem a foreign concept for Sergei – unlike his brother.
3) PIM too high
If the immaturity of Sergei can be captured in any on-ice highlight, it would be him slashing someone who has stripped him of the puck. Frankly I think his PIMs are too high for his role and playing time.
The low event player profile that follows Sergei is a bit strange, given his junior days. But watching him play, I can see why he, like Kovalev produces less shots per minute ice time than others. His current statistical profile gives him a good brief to play for that last top 6 spot. Potentially focusing more on his defensive fortes will make him a lock for the third line.
Tobalev on Sergei Kostitsyn
I am not about to forget that Sergei, at the age of 22, already has 50 NHL points in only 108 games. Considering all of the downs and controversies he has lived through that is still pretty impressive. The bad times, to me, however, are the problem. He has to stay out of trouble (both on and off the ice) if he really wants to stick with the big club. He has tons of potential and he even seems to thrive (at times) in this environment. The coaches should focus much of their efforts on Sergei as we don’t have many players like him; young, great hockey sense, good passer, strong defensively.
Right now, I like Sergei’s chances at getting that last spot amongst the top-6 forwards. He, as well as Guillaume, are the logical prime-candidates, but both still have a lot to prove. I think, if he focuses more on hockey than anything else, Sergei will spend the entire year in the NHL. He has proven to be a valuable 2-way player that has enough flare to keep things interesting. 20 goals isn’t too far-fetched, but I think 10-15 is a safer bet. I am also hoping that his passing numbers will increase and I would like to see him get over 25 assists. To me this is the year he has to prove that he is Sergei K. and not simply Andrei’s younger brother.
Where S Kostitsyn will start 2009-10: Battling for a job
Where S Kostitsyn will end 2009-10: Out of his brother's shadow
Points: 9 G, 23 A, 32 Pts
As a line
Unless Jacques Martin makes one of two grave mistakes, Max Lapierre will start the season as the centre for the third line. Who then should he be playing with?
As hard as it was for Max, I thought for Guillaume's and the team's benefit, Latendresse needed to be recognised for his offensive potential. That, teamed with Kostopoulos' departure means Lapierre needs a new line. Though briefly tempted to slot TK's replacement straight in on the third line, a look at Moen's stats (you'll see) made me scupper that idea in a hurry. So depth being what it is, next in was Matt D'Agostini. D'Agostini makes the grade for a number of reasons, not least of which is Max Pacioretty's waiver exemption.
Though Pacioretty may in theory provide a slight upgrade, D'Agostini does actually have more NHL experience and a half-decent record at turning the ice in his team's favour. Of course, I am assuming here that this line is not in the strictest sense as checking line for the whole season.
Finally, the wild card – Sergei Kostitsyn. For all his petulance, PIMs and sulks, Sergei actually plays a good offensive and defensive game and on average makes those he's on the ice with better players for the team. With D'Agostini in there, Sergei provides the balance of puck holding to wild shooting, defence to offense and studied approach to impetuousness.
There you have it: line #3 as I'd like to see it.
Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier
S Kostitsyn – Lapierre – D'Agostini
Maxim Lapierre
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | GWG | G/60 | Pts/60 | Sh | S% | PIM |
| 08-09 (MTL) | 79 | 15 | 13 | 28 | +9 | 1 | 2 | 0.77 | 1.44 | 165 | 9.1 | 76 |
| 07-08 (MTL) | 53 | 7 | 11 | 18 | +5 | 0 | 0 | 0.60 | 1.55 | 68 | 10.3 | 60 |
| 06-07 (MTL) | 46 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -7 | 0 | 2 | 0.68 | 1.37 | 82 | 7.3 | 24 |
| Even-strength profile | |
 |
|
Stats notes
I don't need to announce Maxim Lapierre's good season here. His evangelical following have already made short work of that task. Some of the intricacies of his game last year, however, are quite interesting; not to mention his career to date. To wit:
1) Goals and points per 60 pretty stable
Max's stats took a jump last year, but his pro-rated production was in the same ballpark. Simply put, he got more goals and points because he played more games and more minutes in those games. The implication for the future is that he may stabilise at this point, or may suffer if Martin uses him less than Carbo did.
2) Excellent plus/minus vs. poor Corsi
A few possible explanations here. Either Max did something special with his line to make all those chances he allowed less threatening to the goalie. Else he played against people who can't shoot straight. Or, he plain got lucky. Evidence from the shots component of the analysis (where the 28 SA/60 is above league average) says he didn't do anything too special. Something he did though must have been to the liking of Price and Halak who out did themselves with a 0.935 S% when he was on – something they didn't afford those teammates they didn't like as much as Max. I'd suggest there was a bit of luck as well.
3) Game-winning goals
Though I expect Max's goal total to drop, I think his GWG will be stable if not increase. I say that because that's the kind of player I think he is – scorer of important goals. Witness 2 out of 6 goals for game winners as a rookie on the fourth line.
Statistical regression is a bad term in the NHL, but it needn't be. If a team is scoring enough goals from the top lines, it doesn't need players like Max to chip in with their own. It needs players like Max to do the other things they do well. From this profile, Max is a player that shoots OK, passes fine and plays a game that more often than not benefits his team. Tip the chances for/against back the other way at the expense of goals scored, and I think he's an even more valuable player.
Tobalev on Lapierre:
Max comes into this season in a far different spot than he has ever been before. No longer is he the hometown hopeful, he is now becoming, in a way, the face of this team. He has never had to deal with this kind of pressure before and has always thrived in that ‘no-expectation’ world. He is now being counted on by a whole province to be a leader both on and off the ice. Will 12 goals be good enough after 15 last year? When the expectations are 5 goals and a roster spot most everything seems like a bonus. When expectations are 20+ goals and to be a dominant shut-down force – the game changes. Personally, I think he liked the Steve Begin role of unsung hero, will he like his new role? I really hope that he at least plays as well as last year, if not better, but wouldn’t be shocked if this career 3rd/4th liner returned to a very decent background-type player.
I think that he will start the season as our 3rd line centre. This is a role that I believe, in an ideal world, is filled by a slightly better player than Max at his stage of development. In fact, if things look rosy for the playoffs, I wouldn’t even be surprised if we upgraded at this position. 15 goals and 13 assists was a huge accomplishment, but he would have to do a lot better in his all around game to be an elite 3rd liner. I think he will take a slight step back offensively this year and will score between 7-13 goals. He won’t see much PP time or have very good goal-scoring linemates, so there may be less assists too.
All told, Max is a valuable voice and player on this team and his work ethic is unmatched by any on the team. That alone means I would have him up all year. Even if his numbers go down I don’t see his effectiveness in other areas (agitation, defensive play, penalty-killing) being too adversely affected.
Where Lapierre will start 2009-10: Team poster boy
Where Lapierre will end 2009-10: Mature checking centre who scores important goals
Points: 11 G, 13 A, 24 Pts
Matt D'Agostini
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | GWG | G/60 | Pts/60 | Sh | S% | PIM |
| 08-09 (MTL) | 53 | 12 | 9 | 21 | -17 | 3 | 1 | 1.01 | 1.77 | 116 | 10.0 | 16 |
| 07-08 (MTL) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | E | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 |
| Even-strength profile | |
 |
|
Stats notes
After watching D'Agostini play, I would never have guessed at that colourful a profile for the guy. Here's what interests me:
1) Best Corsi on the team
Is this even possible? His positive Corsi is fuelled by the excellent creation of offensive shooting opportunities by his lines. Amazingly, more shots than not also went on net (54% – which is high for the Habs). Certainly a valuable stat to add.
2) Atrocious plus/minus
Polar opposite of Max here. It seems like Matt, on average was hard done by – by both his goalie and the oppositions. Usuaully a positive Corsi provides would correlate well to a positive plus/minus (why else would we be bothering with it, after all?). Matt's high chance creation actually resulted in below average goal production – he did play with Dandenault and Laraque a bit. The goalies let him down badly too – to the tune of 0.877.
3) 12 goals as a rookie
I bring up this stat because it clouds the profile. Behind the number we should remember that Matt scored 8 goals in what seemed as many shifts to start his NHL career with gusto beside Saku Koivu. After he was placed with lesser passers, he struggled.
An interesting player with interesting stats. Though, there were 8 goals with Koivu, you can't just throw 12 goals out the window. After all, we're putting a 14 goal man on line #2. Also, if his luck improves, Matt's propensity to produce more chances than he permits will be an asset to any line he's on – regardless of how many goals he eventually produces.
Tobalev on D'Agostini
Marcel Hossa or Michael Ryder? It is hard to tell with Matt which way he will go really. He was never touted as a can’t-miss prospect and I think we would all admit that his play was a very pleasant surprise. So, if he faded away, back to Hamilton and beyond I wouldn’t be too shocked. The Habs, however, seem to have turned a corner in the way they develop their youngsters and I am thinking that, unlike many before him, he will be given his fair chances by the new coaches.
I see D’Agostini playing some of the year on one of the top 2 lines, but I don’t really see him sticking. The problem then becomes the fact that he isn’t yet an ideal 3rd or 4th liner, so where does he go? Aside from some top-2 line action I would expect us to see him, despite where I would place him, on the 3rd line and even back with the ‘Dogs for a period. Being realistic I think we have a potential Chris Higgins here, but he needs time. He is a player that should focus on his two-way game if he ever wants a permanent NHL job. I could see him getting 30 points this year, but wouldn’t be at all shocked if he got less than 20, maybe even less than 10.
Where D'Agostini will start 2009-10: Least sexy choice for the forward line up
Where D'Agostini will end 2009-10: A fixture on the team
Points: 10 G, 12 A, 22 Pts
Sergei Kostitsyn
| NHL Season | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | GWG | G/60 | Pts/60 | Sh | S% | PIM |
| 08-09 (MTL) | 56 | 8 | 15 | 23 | -3 | 5 | 1 | 0.61 | 1.74 | 74 | 11.0 | 64 |
| 07-08 (MTL) | 52 | 9 | 18 | 27 | +9 | 3 | 0 | 0.72 | 2.17 | 49 | 18.4 | 51 |
| Even-strength profile | |
 |
|
Stats notes
Another mixed bag of stats. Sergei's stats present a few things that stand out for me:
1) Low shots
Low shot totals for him personally and then, obviously, for the lines he's a part of. If the new philosophy is to shoot more, Sergei will have to learn a new skill. Low shots also translates into goals and assists for Sergei as he posts twice as many assists as goals – much preferring the pass, even though he has a respectably good shooting percentage.
2) Good plus/minus
Last year, -3 in a tumultuous year. Rookie season, +9. It's good stuff and points to some attraction to the defensive aspects of hockey. Obviously, his tendency from last year to be on the ice for more than a chance a minute (like most Habs) has to be curbed, but PK and defensive line are words that don't seem a foreign concept for Sergei – unlike his brother.
3) PIM too high
If the immaturity of Sergei can be captured in any on-ice highlight, it would be him slashing someone who has stripped him of the puck. Frankly I think his PIMs are too high for his role and playing time.
The low event player profile that follows Sergei is a bit strange, given his junior days. But watching him play, I can see why he, like Kovalev produces less shots per minute ice time than others. His current statistical profile gives him a good brief to play for that last top 6 spot. Potentially focusing more on his defensive fortes will make him a lock for the third line.
Tobalev on Sergei Kostitsyn
I am not about to forget that Sergei, at the age of 22, already has 50 NHL points in only 108 games. Considering all of the downs and controversies he has lived through that is still pretty impressive. The bad times, to me, however, are the problem. He has to stay out of trouble (both on and off the ice) if he really wants to stick with the big club. He has tons of potential and he even seems to thrive (at times) in this environment. The coaches should focus much of their efforts on Sergei as we don’t have many players like him; young, great hockey sense, good passer, strong defensively.
Right now, I like Sergei’s chances at getting that last spot amongst the top-6 forwards. He, as well as Guillaume, are the logical prime-candidates, but both still have a lot to prove. I think, if he focuses more on hockey than anything else, Sergei will spend the entire year in the NHL. He has proven to be a valuable 2-way player that has enough flare to keep things interesting. 20 goals isn’t too far-fetched, but I think 10-15 is a safer bet. I am also hoping that his passing numbers will increase and I would like to see him get over 25 assists. To me this is the year he has to prove that he is Sergei K. and not simply Andrei’s younger brother.
Where S Kostitsyn will start 2009-10: Battling for a job
Where S Kostitsyn will end 2009-10: Out of his brother's shadow
Points: 9 G, 23 A, 32 Pts
As a line
| Line #3 | Effect O/D | |
| C – Maxim Lapierre |  |
|
| RW – Matt D'Agostini |  |
|
| LW – Sergei Kostitsyn |  |
|
Unless Jacques Martin makes one of two grave mistakes, Max Lapierre will start the season as the centre for the third line. Who then should he be playing with?
As hard as it was for Max, I thought for Guillaume's and the team's benefit, Latendresse needed to be recognised for his offensive potential. That, teamed with Kostopoulos' departure means Lapierre needs a new line. Though briefly tempted to slot TK's replacement straight in on the third line, a look at Moen's stats (you'll see) made me scupper that idea in a hurry. So depth being what it is, next in was Matt D'Agostini. D'Agostini makes the grade for a number of reasons, not least of which is Max Pacioretty's waiver exemption.
Though Pacioretty may in theory provide a slight upgrade, D'Agostini does actually have more NHL experience and a half-decent record at turning the ice in his team's favour. Of course, I am assuming here that this line is not in the strictest sense as checking line for the whole season.
Finally, the wild card – Sergei Kostitsyn. For all his petulance, PIMs and sulks, Sergei actually plays a good offensive and defensive game and on average makes those he's on the ice with better players for the team. With D'Agostini in there, Sergei provides the balance of puck holding to wild shooting, defence to offense and studied approach to impetuousness.
There you have it: line #3 as I'd like to see it.
Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)