Revving Up Round 2: Boston vs. Montreal (Scoring)

A little comparison of the two rivals ahead of the upcoming series.

First up, goal scoring. The data I have here is regular season. On the left, Boston, in the middle, Montreal. For the fudge I did with Vanek in the lineup, I thought it would be fair to include his 4 playoff games as well -- it beefs up the number of games.

Better Than Expected: 10 Reasons For Habs Quick Start

I don't think I'd be alone in saying these Canadiens are a fair bit better than I expected them to be. With a serious face, I repeatedly called for this team to be a basement dweller, a team with negligible (if any) improvement) from a 15th-place finisher.

If you want surprises, this is the way to go, let me tell you. The team greatly surpassing an out-of-whack evaluation is more fun to follow than the 2012 edition where the team similarly surprised, but in the opposite direction.

Get Subban Off My #1 PP

Seems like a bit of a funny headline on a morning after Subban scores the only Habs goal on a PP. Hear me out.

This is not a new thought. It is something I have been harbouring for a good long time. That Markov and Subban together are not a good mix.

Markov No Saviour, But...

A very good article was posted today by JT at "The H Does Not Stand For Habs" that addresses the issue of expectation in Habsburg (thank Dennis Kane).

The article stresses some important points for us fans who eagerly await the return of Andrei Markov, the primary message that a lot of time off will have caused rust that will take some time to shake. I fully agree, but there's a but isn't there.

The but of course is that the Canadiens have been managing this season on the back line with essentially three rookies and a sophomore. When Gill was out it was three rookies, a sophomore and an AHLer.

All of them have been doing a formidable job considering the circumstances, but Markov rust or not is nearly guaranteed to offer a better option than one or two of that crew (and I think nearly makes that statement very conservative).

It's easy to forget what Andrei Markov does. It's been easy because it's been so long that we've really had our memories jogged. The notion remains that the Habs win more when he is in the line up (which I think used to be true, but not for his most recent half season), but the forgotten bit is why and how.

Did you know for instance that during his last half season (2009-10) Markov was on the ice for 3.89 GF/60, which given his minutes played was well over a goal per game? Only Pacioretty can match that level of prolific production (about the same this year and last) and Markov's closest peer (Subban) as good as he's been has been clipping closer to 2.75 GF/60 the past two years.

That season, where there was rust to be shaken as well (severed tendons), he paced the PP to nearly 10 GF/60 during his half season with the team. Last season, a good PP had several members who fit in the 8 to 9 GF/60 range on the PP (helpful to have a QB like Wisniewski), but this season the highest achievers are punching about 5-6 GF/60.

Markov was involved in 44 goals in 2009-10 in 53 games all told. This on a Canadiens team is forward level offensive contribution.

While I think there will be rust for Markov, I think it will affect certain areas of his game more than others.

Defensive coverage? I'm not really looking forward to seeing him paired against the top lines right away.

Skating? I'd be surprised if a few hearty practices bring his legs to full game shape.

But knowing when to send a pass across the middle to an open Cammalleri? Or not employing a pump fake and 180 degree wind up for every PP manoeuvre? Andrei's ability to make crisp cross zone breakout passes and quick reversals on the PP don't come from his superior skating ability or stickhandling or anything physical. Rather they come from his instincts for the game and his propensity to see a pass before the receiver often does. These instincts are things I'm confident his shaky knees will not affect, these instincts have been trained over many years to reach this expert level.

Oh sure, it won't be first PP, first game. But I don't think we'll have to wait too long to notice the difference in PP danger following Andrei's return.


There's more good news

I've focused on Andrei Markov's offensive contributions on purpose. That's where I believe the rust will affect him least, and that's where I believe his talent is truly unique.

But there's another good reason. Since Markov's extended hiatus began, the Canadiens have built a fairly solid defensive system, manned ably by the defencemen in it and Carey Price. Subban, I'll never get tired of saying, stands out more in the defensive zone than any. Hal Gill has little use anywhere but the defensive zone, but there he uses his talents well. Josh Gorges has grown without Markov and plays like a star in some of his functions.

The Canadiens this year have managed to put together an astounding success on the PK. More than anything this stands out as the team's main strength.

This is good news for the team, of course, but also for Andrei Markov.

IN the old days, Markov played in every situation, PP, ES, PK. He shone in all facets of play, but if there was a weaker point, I might have pointed to PK. The team he steps back onto should allow for him to ease back into his NHL life mostly free from PK for a while, perhaps for a long time, to concentrate on being the link between puck recovery and dangerous breakout. This is no longer a team pretending Mike Komisarek or Sheldon Souray or Mathieu Dandenault can be his partners, this is a team that gives him more licence to explore those offensive instincts.


I don't think Markov will change the season for the Habs in 5 minutes. But I do think he'll change the dynamic of the team significantly within a few games of return.

I think other teams will have to re-evaluate the ways they approach Habs games, and perhaps even the freedom with which they are willing to use illegal play and risk penalty. I think all will benefit from a shift of responsibility to Markov, what each does best in better balance.

I look forward to it.

A Canadiens Win Possible: Positives From The Statsbooks

Been reading around a bit on the playoffs. There have been a lot of keys to the Canadiens and Bruins victories floated around. One common theme I see coming up again and again is the fact the Canadiens must win a game in Boston to win.

Yesterday, I indulged in one of my other passions – football (soccer, that is). I watched one of the most amazing sporting contests I have seen in years – Chelsea vs. Liverpool in the Champion's League. Coming into the game, Liverpool were in a massive hole (think 8th seed coming in on a losing streak). They had to win at Stamford Bridge (no easy task), they also had to score 3 goals in doing it.

If you know a little bit about footie, you know that games with 3 goals are rare, games with 3 goals from a single team are rarer still.

Funny then that the commentator, right before starting on the game said he wanted to clear a few things up – with the facts. "The common thinking, he said, was that Liverpool must score early to have a chance at scaling the mountain". "Not so, he said, Liverpool can score those 3 whenever they want".

The parallel to the Canadiens is right there. The fact is the Canadiens need to win 4 games to get to the next round. The fact, given the home ice situation, is that the Habs must win at least once in Boston. Nowhere does it say when this win should occur.

I'll stand by this. The Canadiens cannot pin their hopes on a win in the first two games. They cannot let a failure to do so derail them. Getting to 1-1 or 2-2 in this series will be a moral boost, but the only important number is 4. Win 4, don't lose 4. Just the same, winning a game in the first two is no more an indicator of victory this year than it was last year.


Stats to encourage

When I was gathering information on this series, I came across a few interesting stats.

Powerplay
You might remember I touched on the Habs PP resurgence earlier this season. If you look at the rankings for the season, the Canadiens show the 13th best PP in the league at 19.2%. If you take away games 1-38, they actually had a 24% rate to approach their top rating of the past two years.

Boston for their part had a torrid start. At one point midway through the season, they had the best PP and PK, best GF and GA. No longer. I don't have intermediate stats, but that's enough to know they did worse over the past 4 months than the Canadiens did on the PP.

Leading/trailing
There aren't many statistical categories you can look at to pick up your spirits in Montreal. Record when leading after one period, though, is certainly one. The Habs are a mind-boggling 24-2-2 when they establish a first period lead (a rare enough event – 28 occurrences this season). It puts them at the head of the class.

Boston carried the lead into the second 6 more times than us, but only won 3 more. So the Habs are actually tighter at protecting a lead, if you can believe it. The slight hiccough is that Boston actually won 10 out of 19 games they were themselves trailing after 1. I'll ignore that...

1 goal games
Another stat I dug out to make us look competitive: 1 goal games. Montreal was involved in 39 games settled by 1 goal, Boston 38. Montreal put together a winning 20-8-11 record for 51 points. Boston didn't do quite as well, playing sub-500 hockey with 18 wins and 46 points.

Given the direct applications of one-goal records to playoff hockey, Montreal will be happy to be more proficient in tight situations.


Based on these random stats, it seems the keys to the Canadiens winning, among other things are to play tight, don't let the Bruins run away with; and if possible take a lead into the second. Nothing too groundbreaking there, but it'll do for now...

68 Is The New 24 Weber Belatedly Replaces Schneider

We have yet to receive our cryptic message, so I can't say for certain that Andrei Markov, Mathieu Schneider or Kirk Muller won't be playing tomorrow night for the Habs. What we have been told is that the Janik experiment has been suspended.

Yannick Weber, man of record PP goals by a Hamilton D, hardest shot in the CHL, will be up to play, well PP. I write he replaces Schneider because he shoots hard and accurately, has a French forename and Markov cannot be replaced.

Back in November, when our PP was bad (if not worse), everyone proposed lots of solutions. I was among those. Given that our situation has descended to nearly that very point (excuse the pun) again, I re-submit to you this article, where the punctuation on the five-point remedy read:

5) Bring up Yannick Weber
Good shot (99.2 mph). Good stride. Is a defenceman (albeit a rookie). He is doing alright down on the farm on the PP. And he did alright up here on the PP during camp.

Still holds true.

Among the other questions that remain:

1) Will Weber play defence at even strength?
2) Will Dandenault still be a forward?
3) Who plays the Markov spot?
4) Will Boston let us win so they won't have to face us?

GHG

Fingers Crossed

Markov and Schneider are both out of the lineup tonight.

Doug Janik has been recalled to replace the extra man, not AHL-scoring phenom Yannick Weber. The PP-powered resurgence will be tested with Hamrlik, Gorges and Brisebois at the point. Look for a different PP and a different game vs. Ottawa tonight.

Things you should know about Janik:

1) He is Don Lever's man
Don Lever was in the Buffalo organisation that drafted Janik from the University of Maine in 1999. He saw his first NHL training camps when Lever was there to evaluate. Don may have had a say in his acquisition, and he probably had something to say about this recall (i.e., Janik > anyone else)

2) The Canadiens scouts from yore will know him from their days scouting Ron Hainsey
They were on the same US Junior National team

3) He was a full-time NHLer until the demotion in Dallas this season

4) He wore #33 in Dallas this season and also earlier in his career in Buffalo

5) He's been helping the Bulldogs win without scoring
...and stay in the consolation prize for whatever passes for a Jennings trophy in the AHL

6) He's the 10th Doug in Montreal Canadiens history
You may remember some of the others...

7) He'll do for a game

8) And courtesy of Olivier: Janik has a following... http://dougjaniktabarnak.blogspot.com/

Getting The Puck In NetThe Candiens PP Resurgence

The Montreal Canadiens have scored 25 goals on their last 100 powerplays.

Consider that in their first 173 PPs, they only scored 24 times and you start to get the idea about the extent to which a resurgence has occurred.


The difference is marked. 25% in their last 100 PPs as opposed to the lowly 13.8% for the first three months of the season.

How did this happen?

A lot of people point to Mathieu Schneider as the major turning point in the Canadiens PP this season. There is no doubt that he will help bolster an already good PP that refound its form long before his arrival. The 7 PPGs in 12 opportunities since his reinsertion into the Canadiens lineup certainly help to make the numbers look a little rosier.

However, before Schneider there was a first surge. The surge that helped us win all those games we're pretty thankful to have won now – in January.


Game 39
The turnaround as it happens took place some time during a game against the New York Rangers on January 7th. That game, the Canadiens were going in on a 3-game drought PP-wise, a drought they extended from 15 to 17 PPs over the course of the night. While the even-strength goals were going in, the Rangers were able to answer each time. With a PP at 2:29 of the third period, the Canadiens had another opportunity.

Would they score and solidify their position in the game, or would they let another chance go wasting and balance the battle on a knife's edge?

It didn't take long to answer. Plekanec won the PP and Markov was able to snap a shot past a dozing Henrik Lundqvist. It turned that game around, and as it turns out, it seems to have turned around the fortunes of the would-be number one PP of the league (two years running and resurgent). As if to hammer home the homecoming of the 5-man unit, Lang scored an absolute stunner 2 minutes later on a double PP – the play of the game for LIW that night:

It's Robert Lang's goal, but not the one you think - it was his first on the PP. The amazing thing about this whole play, which admittedly was a 5-on-3, was the speed at which the puck covered distance in the Rangers zone. The play essentially starts when Lang having received the puck from Markov, returns the puck to him. Markov readies himself and one-times a pass to Andrei Kostitsyn at the other point (finally Carbo) and he in turn one-times a shot. The shot misses the net but luckily rebounds behind the net cleanly out the other side right to Lang, where he completes the 4-touch play by one-timing a shot himself. Kovalev, not involved in the play himself also played a nice part as he signaled to his old buddy Lang that the puck was coming around cleanly.

This is the Canadiens PP of last season. It's been a long time...

From that time the Canadiens have scored 25 goals in 92 opportunities (that's 27%). I haven't confirmed it with months of calculations, but I'd be willing to bet that's league leading over this period of time.

Even taking away the Schneider games, the Habs still coast to 22.5% clip – already an impressive turnaround in my books.


Maestro
A lot of the talk about the Habs PP over the past two years has focused naturally on the main protagonists – the goalscorers themselves. In 2006-07, wonder shot Sheldon Souray personally accounted for a score of Canadiens PP goals. The natural fear upon his loss cried for a lost PP. It didn't happen. Pundits scrambled to explain it, Mike Farber said Koivu, others to using regular lines instead of special units; many were just confused.

This year, the commentators love to hone in on missing piece Mark Streit. While I would certainly expect the Canadiens PP to be better with Streit than not (for his passing excellence); I hoped, nay expected, they should find a way around the Streit and Ryder losses with the core of talent they had: Kovalev, Koivu, Tanguay, Markov, Kostitsyn, Higgins, Lang.

I was pretty certain back last season, as I am now that most of the success on the PP can be traced pretty reliably to one person in particular:

"His tricks on the PP include breakout passes, gaining the zone, keeping the puck in, simple passing, cross-ice seeing eye passing, shooting from the point, and pinching when appropriate. His biggest trick is how he manages to do all this and garner hardly a mention from the critics who drooled over Souray.

If you watch him on the ice, watch his eyes. What you can see is concentration, poise and vision at the line. He passes and sets himself up for the next play seconds ahead of the opposition. He inherently knows where Koivu and Kovalev will be. When to pass to Streit and when to take on the defenders."

At the beginning of this resurgence, we said this of the player who had the power to kick this PP back into gear:

"If the PP is back for a short stay, it's because he has dragged it back. His goal on the PP was opportunistic and patient at the same time. He sprung to get to the puck but waited to unleash his accurate wrist shot until Lundqvist was sliding. His involvement in the second PP goal was textbook Doug Jarvis PP work. His game up front was impressive and his game on defence this game was solid, despite being on the ice fr a couple of goals. That's to say, his play also prevented a number of chances."

The maestro is Andrei Markov, of course. Fitting that his goal started this road to recovery. Fitting that he set up the most beautiful PP goal of the season (that Lang goal). And, it's fitting that he should be recognised now.

Because although Schneider has provided an indubitable spark, it is Markov who directs, assists and maintains the Canadiens PP. His most recent game was a primo performance from the maestro.


Schneider
The addition of Mathieu Schneider should do two things immediately:

1) Get more accurate and powerful shots on goalies
2) And, more importantly, make opposing coaches think about the Canadiens PP again

For a long stretch, the Canadiens did not have a viable option on the point fr the PP. This was before Kovalev made his move back there, before Andrei Kostitsyn was tried and before Josh Gorges had any clue what he should do outside his own zone. They have since regained themselves, so adding Schneider comes at a good time – it gives the team a bonus option.

With Schneider, the team can set up for a shot from the point instead of trying to jam the puck in from the side of the net. They will still try to jam it in – but should have more space to do it with the defenders worried about Schneider.


The goal of the PP
It is sometimes forgotten, but the goal of PPs across this league is to discourage people from taking penalties. The penalties in place, of course, to discourage people from breaking the rules as they are on that night.

A team with a good PP benefits doubly from it. Not only will they score many goals, but the opposition must play them cleanly.

A team playing at full force and full energy (can anyone remember that? other than the last game guys...) can then win battles and put the other team into a series of compromising dilemmas – let the man go free or hook/trip/crosscheck to prevent the opening at risk of a PP.

I give Benoit Brunet a hard time, but I wanted to highlight probably the most insightful thing I have heard during a hockey broadcast in an age. It was said during the good times, of course, but it still applies. When discussing Georges Laraque and the way the Canadiens were being disrespected around the league, he said (something like):

"The way to get people to stop roughing you up and disrespecting you isn't to have an enforcer; the way is to punish them by scoring goals with a god PP"

Hit them where it hurts, so to speak. On the scoreboard, in the standings. Nobody reels from a black eye to a guy who plays to fight for a living (that is a sideshow). Hit Koivu from behind: Markov scores on the PP. High-stick Kovalev: Kostitsyn rifles one home on the PP. A coach will not stand for penalties that cost the team. So long as they don't, he will (maybe not publicly).

The Canadiens need to heed this great advice from number 17/22.



Matt Schneider has been here for 3 games, but I think it is fair to say we haven't seen the full potential of this addition yet. The next game for example, no self-respecting coach will fail to note to his team that Montreal is 58% on the PP over the last 3 games. No coach will fail to notice that the Habs have scored 12 goals since his arrival.

I think we should start to see a few less liberties taken by opposition players, opening up the ice for the Plekanecs of the team who love the open surface. I think the Canadiens will have the potential to hammer home leads like they once did using the PP. I think it should change the complexion of things from here on. I think the brain-dead calls to trade Andrei Markov will dry up like the Okavango in the Kalahari.

Game #39Lang's Late Hat Trick Turns Tide In Tight Affair

The Canadiens Game in Review

Date: Wednesday, January 7th, 2009
Opponent: New York Rangers
Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Team Stripes

Final Score: 6-3 - Win

Habs starting goalie: Jaroslav Halak (W)
Opposition starting goalie: Henrik Lundqvist (L)

Habs goalscorers: Alexei Kovalev, Guillaume Latendresse, Andrei Markov, Robert Lang (3)
Opposition goalscorers: Chris Drury, Ryan Callahan, Michal Rozsival

Play of the game
The play you're straining to see on the press catwalk monitor...

It's Robert Lang's goal, but not the one you think - it was his first on the PP. The amazing thing about this whole play, which admittedly was a 5-on-3, was the speed at which the puck covered distance in the Rangers zone. The play essentially starts when Lang having received the puck from Markov, returns the puck to him. Markov readies himself and one-times a pass to Andrei Kostitsyn at the other point (finally Carbo) and he in turn one-times a shot. The shot misses the net but luckily rebounds behind the net cleanly out the other side right to Lang, where he completes the 4-touch play by one-timing a shot himself. Kovalev, not involved in the play himself also played a nice part as he signaled to his old buddy Lang that the puck was coming around cleanly.

This is the Canadiens PP of last season. It's been a long time...

Game puck
Trophies are for the end of the year, play well in the game, you get a lovely puck...

Robert Lang
It's a sure-fire system for getting nominated for player of the game: score three goals, make one the game winner, one an incredible individual effort and one to finish the game off. Amazingly, Robert Lang was in the running for this place even before that first goal of his. He played a smart hockey game on the best line we were putting out there for the first two periods. With his 15th goal already and his willingness to play with anyone, he's turning out to be quite a find.



Dome hockey team
We're going into the last minute with these 6 (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...

Forwards

Robert Lang
Lang the offensive machine churned into action again tonight. It seems he could be part of the bigger answer for PP revival as his first goal showed and he could also be the key to unleashing the power of Andrei Kostitsyn at even strength. On the ice for two goals against as well, but neither was his fault as he had his men covered.

Andrei Kostitsyn
For the first two periods of the game, Andrei was the best offensive threat the Canadiens had to offer. As luck would have it, his only statistical contribution in that regard was an assist on a missed shot. But add to that, two periods of buzzing around, shooting with abandon (though not as straight as we've become used to) and generally scaring Rangers defenses. Amazingly, his ice time was low. He had 15 shifts in all and 12:22. He was being punished for his defensive coverage, no doubt, as he was on the ice for 2 Rangers goals (one, the beautiful Zherdev pass, for which he was accused of being personally responsible). I leave him in the dome despite that, because as a winger on a team that looked like it might have trouble scoring (as it was being kept in the periphery), he was the one player who was consistently opening up seams and getting quality chances for about 1/2 and hour.

Alexei Kovalev
A lot of players played quite well tonight and could have made the cut here. Kovalev played quite well in some tough situations. Carbonneau clearly trusts his interim captain, as he was on the ice at the very end for the 6-on-4 kill and played the most among all forwards. His 3:05 on the PP was also a team high and telling as the Habs only spent 4:40 on the PP altogether. Of course, he did also score a beautiful goal, which demonstrated the abilities of sniper perfectly. His tight turn and float unaccosted to the front of the net in anticipation of a scrappy feed was amazing to watch on replay.

Defencemen

Andrei Markov
If the PP is back for a short stay, it's because Andrei Markov has dragged it back. His goal on the PP was opportunistic and patient at the same time. He sprung to get to the puck but waited to unleash his accurate wrist shot until Lundqvist was sliding. His involvement in the second PP goal was textbook Doug Jarvis PP work. His game up front was impressive and his game on defence this game was solid, despite being on the ice fr a couple of goals. That's to say, his play also prevented a number of chances.

Roman Hamrlik
It seems I am constantly being impressed with Roman Hamrlik these days. To watch his positioning, his play in the defensive end, his timing is to learn a lot about being a very good NHL defender. No matter how many goals Souray scores in Edmonton, I wouldn't trade Hamrlik for him in a million years. Oh, and by the way, Hamrlik had 3 assists tonight - including the goal-making shot that led to Guillaume Latendresse's free opportunity.

Goaltender

Jaroslav Halak
Jaro plays and makes the dome, that's a change. I have to come out in full defence of Halak tonight. As evidenced by Marc Denis' two consecutive domes, I have been realistic about him this week - he's been poor. However tonight, Halak played a stormer really. The Rangers throughout the game were peppering the net with shots (they had 39 all told in the end) and he save 36. Now Halak may have looked weak on the first goal - these things happen. But, the only other two goals he allowed were perfectly set-up and executed cross-ice one-timer opportunities. The goals were beauties. And those are the kind of goals that 95% of goalies let in 95% of the time. To save one of those two would have taken highlight reel stuff.

Halak did have some highlight reel stuff in this one. Mostly, though, he just stopped every single shot that came through traffic. It was uncanny really. I mean, rebound or not, how can a defence complain when their goalie makes every first save to be made but the two perfectly set-up opportunities? They can't. This game should give Jaro some much-needed confidence to build on.



Eye-Openers
In this new section we are going to try and shed some light on certain plays or events that would otherwise go unnoticed

My eyes are opened - the Canadiens are a different team this year. And that appears to be by design. Not only have the Habs piled up more points this first half, and relied on less OT losses to do so; they have also done so by playing better defence and without the help of a functional PP.

The Canadiens played 30 minutes of this one at even strength to start out. Over that half an hour, they competed well, held lots of possession and created 2 goals for a lead. To say they would have beaten the Rangers at even strength would not be stretch. To have said that last season would have been.

This game was refereed as if it were one of those Don Cherry favourite playoff games. The refs were lax to say the least and both teams adjusted to their laxity. The Rangers more so than the Canadiens, as they took plenty of liberties assaulting the crease of poor Jaroslav Halak. In the past (as in last year's playoffs), the Habs were lost on nights like these. While waiting for a penalty to spring Markov-Kovalev-Streit on the opposition, their play was sporadic and misdirected.

The difference now is marked. The Lang-Kostitsyns line doesn't disguise the fact that their goal is, well, goals and they are at their best at even-strength. Similarly for Kovalev-Plekanec and whoever suits up on their wing (Pacioretty for now). Even Lapierre's line, which is not blessed with the same shots or talents as the others seems to now understand that keeping the puck in the opposition end may be winning the shift, but does little to win the game. In sum, our even-strength play has become more about scoring goals than preventing them or biding time.

You see, there is something good to come from this PP fiasco. Come playoffs, we'll appreciate players who've learned to make space for themselves without relying on the referees.

Overall Comments

A feel good effort in the first of a double header. A great victory, especially considering we are missing both Koivu and Price at the moment. The test of depth that these injuries have forced has been working out well. Kudos to the healthy players and Kovalev, who has stepped in and done a solid job as captain and go-to PK man since Saku fell.

The Habs now have 52 points over a mere 39 games. Not much of it so far has been pretty. We can't look to an extended winning streak like Washington or Boston has enjoyed to explain what's happened. Along with the evolution to a team that can get it done at even strength, the Habs have become one of those quietly successful teams - speaking out wins and piling up points without much bravado. It's the goal of a 5-year plan to create teams like this - one that can make the playoffs with energy to spare. Let's hope a second half in mirror image of the first is on the horizon for us.

Canadiens PPIs It Luck Or Kovalev?

Slowly, but surely, the Canadiens powerplay throne has been usurped. After a year where they could do no wrong, the Canadiens currently find themselves having to think about ways to score with an extra man.

As with everything Montreal hockey, theories abound as to why this is so. Robert at Eyes on The Prize thinks all our opponents now have a system to shut down Kovalev and thus, the majority of our chances; Carbonneau (via RDS) suggests it's luck. Marc de Foy covers it also, though it's RDS in duplicate pretty much.

So who is right?

Both, I suspect.

Carbonneau is right in some ways because, after all, no one has invented a new system for the powerplay in living memory. 2 players at the point, 1 near the net and 2 floating around the boards is standard fare throughout the league. Calgary have a decent powerplay, don't tell me stone-age Mike Keenan has done any fancy planning.

If Carbonneau keeps deploying the same system (the tried and true NHL method) and keeps asking for shots on PPs – the Canadiens with the talent they have near the net will approach the average 18% or so. So, he's right, 14.6% is a bit unlucky – it pretty much reflects a bad run (which so early in the season distorts the average). It would be wrong, though, for the coach of the team, he who's job it is to think of strategies and ways to improve performance, explained it all away with luck. Hopefully sooner or later, even Carbonneau might be shamed into doing a day's work.

As for Kovalev – as Robert rightly points out some teams do use the following system against us (notably Boston and Philadelphia):

"... they position their four point box openly to form more of a rectangle, with the two closest points aimed directly at Kovalev. With limited space, Kovalev often tries to create options where there are none - flipping passes off the ice where there are no clean lanes, or skating a back and forth "S" pattern to open his end of the box and sneak a shot on goal."

But others seem to let Kovalev have free reign. And to be honest, I haven't been remarking the puck being lost from Kovalev's stick as much as Robert suggested. There is something off with Alex on the PP this year, but he's not alone in that regard. Koivu, for example has been just as bad, if not worse.

My diagnosis
My problem with the PPs of late goes beyond players for me. It is that the pattern of play has all seemed a bit frantic. Everyone has been playing a bit like Chris Higgins during a 12-shot game. Shots have not been placed as they could be, merely directed in the general direction of the net. Missed shots, saved shots and blocked shots all turn into giveaways. Frantic play plays right into the hands of the penalty killers, who thrive on frantic play themselves – battling, diving, batting, swatting, whatever.

What the PP should offer that even-strength does not is time undisturbed on the puck. Once the offensive team crosses into the opposition's zone, a patient game of keep-away is possible. The Canadiens used to be expert at this. During their recent "struggles" they have chosen to jettison patience from their arsenal. Opting instead for a more panicked and so far, unsuccessful approach. They never give the feeling of impending goal, because it's hard to tell what is impending at all from most of them. I don't think they have been too predictable for the opposition, but too unpredictable for each other.

I suspect a little more patience (which includes the quick accurate passing Robert mentioned, just not early shots) would yield better results – something in the 20% range even.


My suggestions
I have a few ideas that I would try, mainly because I don't think they could hurt. I wonder what you all think...

1) Be more patient
As I mentioned, this strategy doesn't necessarily rely on players being at any one position or another, just that the right players are on the ice – ones that are capable of holding the puck and waiting for a pass. Those include Markov, Kovalev, Koivu, Tanguay, Lang Hamrlik, Sergei K, Plekanec and Andrei K. Chris Higgins for all his proven effectiveness at even strength and on the PK is a disaster on the PP. He can't hold the puck for more than a split second without shooting or making a premature pass.

2) Kovalev at the point
Why not give Robert's solution a go – we have a forward at the point anyway:

"To do this, the Canadiens would then employ Kovalev and his passing skills on the blueline. He would only shoot on net when obvious chances presented themselves. Otherwise, he would act only as a simple wheel man in rotating the puck to both sides of the ice with defense partner Markov."

Kovalev has the best shot on the team and can be tricky at keeping the puck in. It certainly can't hurt. My only fear is that it would only rotate the play by 30 degrees or so, and no real watershed would come from this.

Alternatively, why not Andrei Kostitsyn at the point? Underused so far this year. He doesn't see the action opposite Kovalev. Why not use our second best shot on the point and leave Kovalev where he is? Why not try to get Andrei shooting more (and hopefully scoring like he can)?

3) A reliable defenceman at the point
Sure it won't be offence, but then neither is Brisebois (OK, he's contributed a bit). A reliable defenceman would free Markov to pinch more. Right now he is covering back all the time for a forward or a D who couldn't stop a short-handed breakaway with a 5-second head start. These guys are in short supply, but Bouillon and Gorges could fit the bill. Maybe even Komisarek if he remembers how to play some time soon.

4) Latendresse for Higgins
I don't mean to pick on Chris, but as we are in trouble and my diagnosis calls for more precise and less machine-gun-like shooting, I think Guillaume could be the stationary guy at the side of the net. He, after all, excels at being stationary. Higgins as I have mentioned a few times now is a bit too hyperactive to be part of a settle-it-down plan.

5) Bring up Yannick Weber
Good shot (99.2 mph). Good stride. Is a defenceman (albeit a rookie). He is doing alright down on the farm on the PP. And he did alright up here on the PP during camp.


Even if Carbonneau does nothing (as per his precedent)and the rut continues, this is not really a huge matter for concern. The Canadiens still have the 4th best goals scored per game ratio in the Eastern Conference. Second among teams who can't count on players named Ovechkin, Semin, Malkin and Crosby.

Last year at this time, there was some alarm in the press (what, in Montreal?!?, you say) about even strength scoring and being over-reliant on the powerplay for goals. I guess we'd be complaining about that if the PP was up...

Game #3Habs End Season-Opening Road-Trip With Another Win

This is LIW's first Game Review of the year and we would like to welcome back our loyal readers as well as welcome any new Habs fans to the sites. Topham's wedding and subsequent holiday meant that we have missed a couple of game reviews, but we are now back and ready for a another great season.

The Canadiens Game in Review

Date: Monday October 13th, 2008
Opponent: Philadelphia Flyers
Venue: Wachovia Center, Philadelphia, PA

Team Stripes

Final Score: 5-3 - Win

Habs starting goalie: Carey Price (W)
Opposition starting goalie: Martin Biron (L)

Habs goalscorers: Andrei Kostitsyn, Roman Hamrlik, Mike Komisarek, Robert Lang, Steve Begin
Opposition goalscorers: Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Simon Gagne

Play of the game
The play you're straining to see on the press catwalk monitor...

Carbonneau decided to come back with the line that worked oh so well last year - Plekanec-A.Kostitsyn-Kovalev. It was this line that started the scoring and supplied the footage for our first Play-of-the-Game of the year.

Andrei had lost the puck in Philly's end when he came to the blue-line and made a great check on the puck-carrier. He then stole the puck, got onside and got back in position to receive a zone-entering pass from Markov. The pass was quick and so was the wrist-shot. Kostitsyn wasted no time sending one of his patented top-corner shots up past Biron to break the ice in what turned out to be a second high-scoring performance in a row.

Game puck
Trophies are for the end of the year, play well in the game, you get a lovely puck...

Andrei Kostitsyn
Andrei just continues to improve. After a stellar end to the season last year it was more and more obvious as we approached this season that he was going to become even more of a star. Tonight he was the best Hab on the ice. He made several fantastic plays and is playing with more size and confidence than even a few months ago. He managed a goal and an assist in the game and also finished at +2.



Dome hockey team
We're going into the last minute with these 6 (and they're attached to the ice, so they're not coming off)...

Forwards

Sergei Kostitsyn
When the game started I wasn't sure what to expect from Sergei and his line. I had yet to see Lang play in a regular season game for the Habs and always knew that Kostopoulos could be hit or miss. So, I thought that Sergei may fade in and out of the game as many Habs 3rd-liners of recent years have tended to do. Instead, however, Kostitsyn, like his brother took control when he was on the ice. His great vision led to another 2 assists and numerous other chances. He sees the ice so well, which is such a great gift to have as a winger.

Andrei Kostitsyn
Andrei was the best player on his line tonight which would certainly scare me as an opponent. With the way that Kovy and Pleks have been playing of late it is quite the achievement to be the best of the lot. What I particularly liked about Andrei tonight was how he took control. It appears that he is no longer interested in being Kovy Jr., Andrei wants to become a star all of his own.

Robert Lang
I was pleasantly surprised tonight by the play of Lang. I always liked him as a player and have often thought he would have done well on the Habs. I did, however, expect less from him at this stage of his career and I was anticipating another Bonk or Smolinski. Lang played a very good game in both ends and was actually our best centre. He makes up for his age and diminished pace with great passing and very good positioning. His goal was an example of how a great hockey player never really gets old.

Defencemen

Andrei Markov
Higgins was once again absent tonight which meant a big letter 'A' for Andrei. I find that he plays better for us when he does wear a letter and tonight was no different. He was great in both ends and was a single bright-spot on an otherwise dismal power-play. His passing, puck-control and ability to keep the puck in at the blue-line made him our best player with the extra man tonight. He managed 2 assists in the game, and as usual played more than any other Hab.

Roman Hamrlik
Hammer was solid again tonight. Last year he was a model for consistency and from what I have seen it looks like this year will be no different. He was very physical as he often won the crucial one-on-one battles and was often a reason why Philly found it hard to gain any sort of momentum. His positioning and hockey-sense earned him a goal, which, along with his assist and the fact that he wasn't on the ice for any of Philly's goals, made him our most valuable blue-liner tonight.

Goaltender

Carey Price
The bottom is that Carey got the job done. He wasn't spectacular, nor was he very dominant, but when we needed to stay in the game he kept us there. There were a few instances that made it very clear he did not spend his summers learning to handle the puck. I know that he worked hard to lose weight and build strength over the off-season, but at some point the kid has to learn to handle the puck, or, this may be crazy, not come out and play the puck on every single occasion.



Eye-Openers
In this new section we are going to try and shed some light on certain plays or events that would otherwise go unnoticed

Tonight something that caught my eye were the events leading up to and culminating with our 5th goal. There was nothing special about what happened, but more so about what could have happened. With about 45 seconds left Koivu was on the ice, skating up through the neutral- zone with the puck. He had a wide open net to shoot at, but before he did, he did something very simple, he stepped over centre-ice. It turned out his shot missed and thankfully an icing call was avoided.

The Habs then worked hard to keep the puck in the zone and it eventually paid off. Like all kids (and adults) are told, Begin shot the puck at the net. He didn't know what was in the way, he hadn't lined it up just right, but with 35 seconds left all he did was throw the puck towards the goal. The result of this blind shot was a goal, some relief and a win.

Overall Comments

Tonight's game wasn't all that exciting, but at the end of the day the Habs got the job done and even managed to pot 5. I am very happy with the offensive depth that we have this year and I think it has shown by scoring 12 road goals in 3 games. I think the team shouldn't have too much difficulty making the playoffs and it looks like they will once again be a main player in the East.

One thing that worried me from tonight's game, however, was our play on the Power-Play. So much of our success over the past 2 years has been thanks to our tremendous play with the extra-man, but I think we took a certain player for granted when we assumed our success would carry forward. After losing Souray we had a natural (and possibly better) replacement in Mark Streit. Mark was so offensively talented that he was the perfect point-man. We never really missed Sheldon as Streit could move the puck so much better and it actually helped to improve our PP.

For 4 Million Dollars we decided to go for Lang and Brisebois rather than Streit this year. What that has done to our team will only be told in time, but so far, I don't like what I see. We have no player able to play the point like Streit did which was painfully obvious tonight - Tanguay had such a hard time keeping the puck in and moving it around at the back. Forwards at the point don't generally factor into the league's top PP's and I think this is a mistake for us. Beyond Markov we have no legitimate offensive-defencemen with the club and it will hurt us as the season goes on.

It was alright to take Souray for granted because our depth allowed it. After tonight though I have come to the conclusion that we lack depth at defence and the PP will be the first area to suffer.

How the Habs keep powering their PP

A lot of people round the league wrote the Canadiens off when they lost Sheldon Souray. Even more joined in when the free agency signings were totalled up.

But now many of these "experts" are looking at the Montreal Canadiens and wondering how they got to be third (let's dispense with the actual standings for a minute) in the East. And, critics and fans alike are wondering how their powerplay could possibly be first.


Looking at it logically, you can see where the write-offs came from:

The Canadiens missed the playoffs last year.
Much of their plight was due to a lack of scoring in critical games.
Most of their scoring last year was on the PP.
Souray scored a team leading 19 PPG – NHL record to boot.

So, take away Souray and:

The Canadiens PP will lose at least 19 goals.
The Canadiens PP will be worse than last year.
The Canadiens even strength may or may not improve, but most likely stay the same.
They score even less goals.
They lose more games.


I admire the logical process, I do. But it's like a calculation when you get a bit of the early bit wrong, the end conclusion will be way off. Most of the above thinking is logically sound, but the assumptions about the Canadiens PP and how it worked were clearly not very well founded.

Michael Farber, one time Habs expert, now occasional commentator had this to say on Souray and the Habs:

"This shouldn't compute. When Sheldon Souray signed as a free agent with the Edmonton Oilers last summer, he took his Hammer of Thor slapshot and the 19 power play goals -- a record for NHL defensemen -- with him. Souray's shot, which put as much fear into the forwards who were expected to go to the front of the net for a deflection as it did into goalies, was a freak of nature. Doug Jarvis, the Montreal assistant coach in charge of the power play, put it to excellent use. The Canadiens might work the puck around a little, but everybody in the arena knew it was going to end up back at the point and the maestro would wind up and hammer it. Montreal's power play, among the top ranked in the league until it slipped late in the season, was basically The Anvil Chorus."

Sure, as Farber says, Souray could shoot hard, and sure this probably helped him score a few (let's say 8 to be generous). In my opinion, the shot from the point (or the middle of the ice) probably has the highest likelihood of actually going in the net or being deflected in. It is a great play. However, once other teams know this is the play, they will be able to take away the opportunity more times than not.

Now, even I have conceded that losing Souray cost us 8 goals. So why is the PP better?

In my assessment focusing our efforts into getting a Souray shot actually damaged our PP proficiency. There are several ways I see this being possible:

Souray misses, the goalie saves or defender blocks, and:

a) the puck was recovered by the other team
b) the puck went over the glass
c) the puck came out of the zone
d) the players recovered the puck and went about setting up for the big shot again


As we all know, a powerplay is a lot more complex than the goal that comes at the end of it. A powerplay that relies on a variety of plays, or indeed on that creates new plays on the spur of the moment, will be more successful in the long run because it better exploits the lack of defenders.

I would argue that the key to the Canadiens powerplay last year was the ability to set the stage for the Souray shot, and not the Souray shot itself. My conclusion is that the Canadiens PP this year and last were/are above the league's average because of the quality of the passers they have on the ice rather than the shooters.


So who is the one responsible for all this success?

Well, Michael Farber might have you believe that it's down to a decision to play regular lines rather than PP units. I might give this idea some credence if it weren't so banal. I might also think it benefits the PP, except that the regular lines change so much that the consistency argument goes out the window a bit. Plus, using regular lines is nothing new – PPs good and bad (and terrible) have been doing this for ages.

Farber's article also quotes an NHL scout, who like me opts for the ability to move the puck around, and he claims the key is Koivu:

"They got too dependent on Souray. Now they're throwing the puck around better, moving into spaces, getting some two-on-ones down low. The key is Koivu. I can't remember him starting a season so strong, with so much confidence. His passes are really sharp. Last year his passes were too hard sometimes, and guy's couldn't handle it. He's playing much better now."

Not to take anything away from Koivu, but he has only been on the ice for 11 of the Canadiens 22 PP goals, so he may not be the whole answer. Koivu plays a low position and is critical in puck control when he's on, but he does not orchestrate these affairs.

That job belongs to our PP conductor: Andrei Markov.

His tricks on the PP include breakout passes, gaining the zone, keeping the puck in, simple passing, cross-ice seeing eye passing, shooting from the point, and pinching when appropriate. His biggest trick is how he manages to do all this and garner hardly a mention from the critics who drooled over Souray.


If you watch him on the ice, watch his eyes. What you can see is concentration, poise and vision at the line. He passes and sets himself up for the next play seconds ahead of the opposition. He inherently knows where Koivu and Kovalev will be. When to pass to Streit and when to take on the defenders.

He's been on the ice for 17 of the Habs 22 PPGs. He's tied for 6th in PP scoring among defensemen. And I can't account for the number of times he's been the originator of the play that becomes a goal.

He's all we ever hoped Malakhov might be when we traded the talented Schneider and he's our top tier defenseman since Chelios.

The Russian (Cyrillic) characters PP would translate to RR in English. Luckily for us, in the town where Markov comes from, they seem to have taught their hockey players to translate PP into G.

Alexei Kovalev: The One and Only

With the Sens in the final (love 'em or hate 'em), the Bulldogs in a final of their own and Markov signing, hockey talk in Montreal has passed by Kovalev for the moment. To me he remains the most interesting topic to touch off my blog, as he, more than any other topic, can truly polarise Habs fans into two camps. Sometimes I think about Kovalev and the Habs, and someitmes things around me make me think of him and his relationship with the team and the fans.

Where I work, on the river, we were seeing a yellow amphibious car drive (swim) by daily for a while. The first day this thing came by, my gosh, it was something. We all jumped up and gaped as the thing laboured against the flow of the water on its way past. As days went by, we'd all in varying degrees crane our necks to see the car puttering up and down. Then one day, people stopped looking. It's just an amphibious car. I never thought I'd see the day where an amphibious car going past would be a mundane event.

I can see that this is what has happened to a certain extent with Kovalev and the Canadiens supporters. Back in March/April 2004, this player was an exclusive find. He made moves we had never seen before. Let me re-word that: he made moves – that, we had never seen before (or at least in a long time). He still makes those same moves, but maybe we're tiring of them. At the end of the day, it's the winning we're all after, I think. Kovalev became that yellow amphibious car to Habs fans, he became familiar, mundane, banal. People started asking the practical questions like: "If he's so talented why did he score less points than Michael Ryder?"; and "Can the team afford to pay for these moves, if it doesn't pay off in goals?"

Well, amphibious cars aren't the most efficient way to get around most times, that is, until the bridges are blocked...

What Alexei Kovalev gives the Canadiens is a unique proposition. He gives them alternate routes to scoring when traditional avenues are blocked. And, to my mind, he's the only one who does on this team. And that's why he is valuable.

In addition, he is invaluable to the powerplay. He takes away a defender, since opposing teams can't afford him the freedom of their zone to skate and shoot. He carries into the zone. Older Habs fans will remember the Steve Shutt (as a coach) years where dump and chase and nothing else meant powerplays were mostly spent chasing the puck in our own (and not the opposition!) end. And, on top of that he does occasionally score.

The grass is always greener

Of course there are negatives, but are his any worse than the alternatives?

It's easy to look at other teams and praise their players who we don't watch day in, day out. It's our habit in Montreal. It's exciting to get a new player. But then when they've arrived, somehow they're worse than they were elsewhere. Players once gone are always better in our eyes. Is this our team? Our city? Our media? I think it's a matter of perspective. If winning is the goal, then we should try to think of players more in terms of games they helped win (or lose) and less in terms of how many points they score.

In that light Kovalev doesn't look so bad afterall.

What way forward, then, from here?

Maybe we should try and get Kovalev a centre, instead of trying to unload him. Maybe we should allow him to play with Koivu. The maybes could go on and on.

I think we should accept him for what he is. A forward who can enchant and entice some nights, but most nights plays like the rest of the team, not worse. But remembering, Kovalev is also a bloody great PP forward, and someone who can win some games every year all on his own (and from what we've seen, this includes the playoffs).