When the NHL announced that it was to create the All-Star teams for the Annual Classic by a live draft, the first thought in most peoples' minds was:
"Who will have the shame of being the last standing"
To soften the blow to the 6th goalie and the last defenceman taken, the league put in some rules to ensure these were picked by an earlier deadline. (They also softened the blow to the least deserving forward, er defenceman, when they made him an assistant captain with exemption from the draft)
But guess what. someone will still have to be picked last. What's more, with the use of cunning and guile we can all figure out who the last defender and goalie picked were anyway.
As Canadiens fans, we don't have the luxury of being from a city in the US where the NHL is really trying to promote itself right now, so we only have on representative at the game.
Carey price nearly won the write in ballots, but the always humble Penguins fans stuffed the boxes for their goalie before Christmas when his stats were so Un-Star. Carey made it anyway, either on merit or because every team has to have one representative -- you tell me.
In any case, what this all means is that just about the only reason to watch any of the festivities this weekend for the hardcore Habs fan is to see where Carey price will be selected. It should give a new barometer on Price -- what opposing players think of him.
Mock draft results
Ahead of the actual draft, one of the most popular things to do for people with 3 minutes to spare is to do a mock draft and publish it in their newspaper or on their web page. In these drafts, the columnists either pick who they'd select (credible?) or pretend to be Staal and Lidtsrom and pick that way (less credible?).
In order to get an idea of the odds for Carey, I had a browse through about 9 mock drafts to see where he stood (NHL I, NHL III, TSN, Cgy Herald, Can Press, SI, SN, Broadstreet Hockey).
At this point, I'd have to say that Carey Price is the odds on favourite to be selected with the very last pick of a goaltender. The chips seem to fall mostly this way:
1) Cam Ward
Those pretending to be Staal all took him first. Given that Staal is the one picking, it seems plausible that he might go for Ward.
7 first, 1 second, 1 fourth (never after Price)
2) Tim Thomas
The best goaltender in the league this year (and over the past few years) gets relegated by Ward, but no further.
2 first, 4 second, 3 third (once after Price -- TSN)
3) Jonas Hiller
The best save percentage over the last few years, a solid and consistent bet is recognized as such.
1 second, 3 third, 2 fourth, 3 fifth (twice after Price)
4) Marc-Andre Fleury
Having to earn a selection without an internet vote may prove harder for MAF. The pundits knock him down the few notches his career stats deserve.
3 third, 3 fourth, 2 fifth, 1 sixth (twice after Price)
5) Henrik Lundqvist
Lidstrom is Swedish, and Lundqvist is pretty reliable to a standard.
2 second, 1 fourth, 4 fifth, 2 sixth (thrice after Price)
6) Carey Price
One big fan in Darren Dreger, but also openly mocked by some fantasy drafters. He was the clear last choice form the limited selection here.
1 second, 2 fourth, 6 sixth
On form
On form alone, Carey would probably fare a bit better.
This season, he is tied for fifth among the All-Star goalies in save percentage, with 0.920, good for 13th in the NHL (tied with Ward). Carey's been good, but the league standard has gone up. He's been better at keeping the goals down, as he's 9th leaguwide in that regard (2.36) and better than both Hiller (2.50) and Ward (2.70). So let's say if this game wasn't in Carolina, then Carey would be well ahead of Cam. Then again, if it wasn't in Carolina, how would Shanahan explain Ward over Pavelec or Rinne?
If we take a regular season only view and remove playoff accolades and blushes, then Carey is also slightly better than both Ward and Fleury for a career.
Sorry folks, but unless this game is suddenly moved to a different venue, it looks like GAA numbers won't be enough to save Carey's uneasy stand until the 10th round of this draft.
If there's something we've learned about Carey in his short career, however, it's that thinking he has something to prove is a better mode than thinking he's proved something already. As far as the Habs go, it may be good for Price to add a little chip to his shoulder for the next time he faces Staal, or Richards, or St. Louis.
Showing posts with label Hiller. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hiller. Show all posts
Friday, January 28, 2011
Friday, September 03, 2010
Price's Contract In Context
Yesterday the final big news of the summer for Habs fans marked a turning point, from watching chatrooms and runour sites to awaiting for play and game reports.
An initial scan of reaction shows a mix. There is plenty of relief that this contract is on the books before camp. There is fretting about its details. And thee is praise as well.
Before taking this any further, I just wanted to present the contract as I see. The signing as I see it in context of the league, the league's goalies and the Canadiens organization.
$2.75 million a season
In a summer of low-ball offers to goalies, this number seems a little high.
Since the 2009-10 season started, 30 other goalies signed contracts with NHL clubs. Realistically, 9 of those goalies can be considered starters: Halak, Rinne, Hiller, Niemi, Lehtonen, Turco, Ellis and Chris Mason. I suppose we need to throw in Leighton, as Philly will be counting on him too.
Of the 8, 4 teams signed starters for under $2 million (Turco, Mason, Ellis and Leighton). 4 teams signed goalies for over $3 million (Halak, Lehtonen, Rinne and Hiller). Antti Niemi is signed for $2 million on the nose.
Based on these 2 lists, I think it's fair to say that Price fits somewhere in between the two -- putting his value between $2 million and £3 million. Seeing as that's where he landed, I don't think there should be big surprise. Given, there's always the hope that Gauthier pries a $2.1 million deal out of this, but at $2.75, the fretting is for half a million.
I've said elsewhere that the Canadiens own salary structure is absolutely pivotal in evaluating this deal. It is. Carey knows what his teammates earn and he knows what his teammates do to earn that money. When Benoit Pouliot doubled his salary, that immediately set a low that Carey could not possibly go under, more like a low +$500,000. That's the £2 million right there. Then there's all those $5 million plus players, they factor in. Finally, Andrei Kostitsyn who won a contract as an RFA at a similar age, albeit under different circumstances. His $3.25 must have loomed in negotiations.
2 year term
On his conference call, Carey Price asserted that both sides agreed early on that 2 years was the right term. Horse hockey.
If possible, I think Carey would have liked to have come out of this contract as an unrestricted free agent. I think both he and his agent seeing this trend in goaltending contracts might have been happy to tack on years with modest raises per season. If they really thought last season was a horrendous anomaly, they'd have been all for a single season to come out an RFA again in 2011 rather than 2012 with the chance at cashing in at a higher rate then.
The 2-year contract seems more to me like a Canadiens stipulation, and a sensible one at that. 2 years does two things. For one thing, it means Price is locked up past next season, a critical one for other signings that don't need to be clouded by more decisions (Markov, Gorges). For another, it gives the team a short enough term to evaluate.
If Carey does well and grows into his role, the team gets a cheap starter for 2 years and then negotiates for market value when that time comes. If he stutters and is still learning in 2 years, the Canadiens have the leverage, as Carey will be an RFA with more than 200 games.
3 other things will have happened by that time. The first is that the CBA will in all likelihood expire that summer after the NHLPA extends it this season. Second is that carey will might played another season with a young rival if Karri Ramo comes over. The third is that other key goaltenders will potentially come available for signing at that time. Golatenders like Rinne and Cory Schneider will be UFAs. Tuukka Rask and Pavaelec will be RFAs.
I believe the Canadiens are entirely above board here. They obviously expect Carey Price to succeed, else they wouldn't have shipped Halak and Desjardins. However, in opting for 2 years, they avoid an uncomfortable agreement that drags long for no fruit while building in flexibility.
Halak
Finally, Halak.
As you all know, I'd have chosen Halak. But that's irrelevant now. Gauthier and Gainey didn't choose Halak. Rather, they chose Halak's trade return, salary savings and Price over Price's trade return, Halak and his extra cost.
In so far as this deal goes, though, we should be a little bit thankful to those who signed Halak. While it may seem like an overpay to some who prefer to cast him as a one-season wonder, his $3.75 million a season came under what a lot expected given past deals like Khabibulin's, Huet's and Ward's. If one thing must have been clear to both the Canadiens and Price's camp, it was that Halak had earned the bigger payday this time around, and so a real ceiling was set.
There will be fretting, of course, if Halak succeeds and Price doesn't. But that would have happened with either trade. This is Montreal.
Overall
The good things that can come out of this are numerous. If Carey plays well and really puts his stamp on the team, we will probably boast the cheapest quality starter in the league. If he plays at his 0.912 levels, we'll be OK and won't have been hoodwinked by any stretch
In all then, not the worst case scenario at all. Not even that far from the best outcome. It's somewhere in the middle.
An initial scan of reaction shows a mix. There is plenty of relief that this contract is on the books before camp. There is fretting about its details. And thee is praise as well.
Before taking this any further, I just wanted to present the contract as I see. The signing as I see it in context of the league, the league's goalies and the Canadiens organization.
$2.75 million a season
In a summer of low-ball offers to goalies, this number seems a little high.
Since the 2009-10 season started, 30 other goalies signed contracts with NHL clubs. Realistically, 9 of those goalies can be considered starters: Halak, Rinne, Hiller, Niemi, Lehtonen, Turco, Ellis and Chris Mason. I suppose we need to throw in Leighton, as Philly will be counting on him too.
Of the 8, 4 teams signed starters for under $2 million (Turco, Mason, Ellis and Leighton). 4 teams signed goalies for over $3 million (Halak, Lehtonen, Rinne and Hiller). Antti Niemi is signed for $2 million on the nose.
Based on these 2 lists, I think it's fair to say that Price fits somewhere in between the two -- putting his value between $2 million and £3 million. Seeing as that's where he landed, I don't think there should be big surprise. Given, there's always the hope that Gauthier pries a $2.1 million deal out of this, but at $2.75, the fretting is for half a million.
I've said elsewhere that the Canadiens own salary structure is absolutely pivotal in evaluating this deal. It is. Carey knows what his teammates earn and he knows what his teammates do to earn that money. When Benoit Pouliot doubled his salary, that immediately set a low that Carey could not possibly go under, more like a low +$500,000. That's the £2 million right there. Then there's all those $5 million plus players, they factor in. Finally, Andrei Kostitsyn who won a contract as an RFA at a similar age, albeit under different circumstances. His $3.25 must have loomed in negotiations.
2 year term
On his conference call, Carey Price asserted that both sides agreed early on that 2 years was the right term. Horse hockey.
If possible, I think Carey would have liked to have come out of this contract as an unrestricted free agent. I think both he and his agent seeing this trend in goaltending contracts might have been happy to tack on years with modest raises per season. If they really thought last season was a horrendous anomaly, they'd have been all for a single season to come out an RFA again in 2011 rather than 2012 with the chance at cashing in at a higher rate then.
The 2-year contract seems more to me like a Canadiens stipulation, and a sensible one at that. 2 years does two things. For one thing, it means Price is locked up past next season, a critical one for other signings that don't need to be clouded by more decisions (Markov, Gorges). For another, it gives the team a short enough term to evaluate.
If Carey does well and grows into his role, the team gets a cheap starter for 2 years and then negotiates for market value when that time comes. If he stutters and is still learning in 2 years, the Canadiens have the leverage, as Carey will be an RFA with more than 200 games.
3 other things will have happened by that time. The first is that the CBA will in all likelihood expire that summer after the NHLPA extends it this season. Second is that carey will might played another season with a young rival if Karri Ramo comes over. The third is that other key goaltenders will potentially come available for signing at that time. Golatenders like Rinne and Cory Schneider will be UFAs. Tuukka Rask and Pavaelec will be RFAs.
I believe the Canadiens are entirely above board here. They obviously expect Carey Price to succeed, else they wouldn't have shipped Halak and Desjardins. However, in opting for 2 years, they avoid an uncomfortable agreement that drags long for no fruit while building in flexibility.
Halak
Finally, Halak.
As you all know, I'd have chosen Halak. But that's irrelevant now. Gauthier and Gainey didn't choose Halak. Rather, they chose Halak's trade return, salary savings and Price over Price's trade return, Halak and his extra cost.
In so far as this deal goes, though, we should be a little bit thankful to those who signed Halak. While it may seem like an overpay to some who prefer to cast him as a one-season wonder, his $3.75 million a season came under what a lot expected given past deals like Khabibulin's, Huet's and Ward's. If one thing must have been clear to both the Canadiens and Price's camp, it was that Halak had earned the bigger payday this time around, and so a real ceiling was set.
There will be fretting, of course, if Halak succeeds and Price doesn't. But that would have happened with either trade. This is Montreal.
Overall
The good things that can come out of this are numerous. If Carey plays well and really puts his stamp on the team, we will probably boast the cheapest quality starter in the league. If he plays at his 0.912 levels, we'll be OK and won't have been hoodwinked by any stretch
In all then, not the worst case scenario at all. Not even that far from the best outcome. It's somewhere in the middle.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Negotiating On Price:
Opening Parry
The last Canadiens game was played more than 2 months ago now. As the sun set on the Canadiens season, there were questions everywhere, except it seemed in goal. In goal, Jaroslav Halak had been the undisputed star for the Canadiens, if not the league in the playoffs to that point, and Carey Price warmed the bench.
But the offseason has cast a new light on matters. Halak was traded, of course. But even after that lingering negotiations have led to looming questions. For a brief period on July 1, Robert Mayer was the highest ranked goalie on the Montreal payroll. He was to be bumped to NHL back-up in the depth chart by the signing of Alex Auld and later to a more sensible place as Gauthier retained Desjardins and Sanford. As Price’s contract talks drag on, the depth chart of today still has Mayer in Hamilton, with Auld and probably Desjardins in Montreal.
That situation is pure fantasy, though, as Carey Price must be as near a certainty to sign on as there ever was. But Auld, Desjardins, Sanford, Mayer. Some have said it’s not leverage for the goalie and his agent, fans who ponder their upcoming cable package might disagree.
Anyway, we put aside the possibility that Price will not be signed instead looking to the terms of the contract he will eventually sign. For fun, I thought of the negotiation as a mock arbitration setting (probably not that far from the truth) with each side presenting their arguments and counter-arguments.
For mock purposes, let’s assume that Carey Price’s team is indeed asking for the $3 million that HabsWorld comes up with in its uncited "report" (1 to 3 years). The Habs we’ll assume by the hold up are not into that, we’ll say they started at $1.7 million (2 to 4 years).
Carey Price camp opening arguments
1. Starting goalie money
The average goalie salary (cap hit) in the NHL is $2.51 million
The average among starters is $3.75 million
Removing entry level for starters gives $4.1 million
You want Carey to be a starting goalie in one of the biggest fanbases with some of the biggest revenue in the NHL. He shouldn’t be far below average.
2. Comparables
Carey Price (3 seasons)
Season: 2.77, 0.912
Career: 2.73, 0.912
Jonas Hiller (3 seasons) ¬ $4.5 million
Season: 2.73, 0.918
Jaroslav Halak (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.75 million
Career: 2.62, 0.919
Kari Lehtonen ¬ $3.55 million
Season: 2.81, 0.911
Career: 2.87, 0.912
Pekka Rinne (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.4 million
Season: 2.53, 0.911
Their average salaries going into the next contracts are $3.8 million, so the $3 million we ask for is very reasonable considering Carey’s closest peers.
3. Pedigree
Drafted 5th overall
CHL goaltender of the year
WJC winning goalie and tournament MVP
Calder Cup winning goalie and tournament MVP
NHL All-Rookie team
NHL All-Star Game
4. Save percentage
Save percentage is the only number that can be trusted among goalie statistics, as it is the only number that belongs to the goaltending performance alone. 0.912 this season and for his career are excellent at his age. It was a single tenth of a percent behind Roberto Luongo.
5. Alternatives
Having traded Halak, without Carey you would look to start the season with Alex Auld in goal and Cedrick Desjardins at back up. Carey offers a massive upgrade to that tandem, replacing the completely NHL-naïve Desjardins from the roster and providing a better start option than Auld.
But the offseason has cast a new light on matters. Halak was traded, of course. But even after that lingering negotiations have led to looming questions. For a brief period on July 1, Robert Mayer was the highest ranked goalie on the Montreal payroll. He was to be bumped to NHL back-up in the depth chart by the signing of Alex Auld and later to a more sensible place as Gauthier retained Desjardins and Sanford. As Price’s contract talks drag on, the depth chart of today still has Mayer in Hamilton, with Auld and probably Desjardins in Montreal.
That situation is pure fantasy, though, as Carey Price must be as near a certainty to sign on as there ever was. But Auld, Desjardins, Sanford, Mayer. Some have said it’s not leverage for the goalie and his agent, fans who ponder their upcoming cable package might disagree.
Anyway, we put aside the possibility that Price will not be signed instead looking to the terms of the contract he will eventually sign. For fun, I thought of the negotiation as a mock arbitration setting (probably not that far from the truth) with each side presenting their arguments and counter-arguments.
For mock purposes, let’s assume that Carey Price’s team is indeed asking for the $3 million that HabsWorld comes up with in its uncited "report" (1 to 3 years). The Habs we’ll assume by the hold up are not into that, we’ll say they started at $1.7 million (2 to 4 years).
Carey Price camp opening arguments
1. Starting goalie money
The average goalie salary (cap hit) in the NHL is $2.51 million
The average among starters is $3.75 million
Removing entry level for starters gives $4.1 million
You want Carey to be a starting goalie in one of the biggest fanbases with some of the biggest revenue in the NHL. He shouldn’t be far below average.
2. Comparables
Carey Price (3 seasons)
Season: 2.77, 0.912
Career: 2.73, 0.912
Jonas Hiller (3 seasons) ¬ $4.5 million
Season: 2.73, 0.918
Jaroslav Halak (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.75 million
Career: 2.62, 0.919
Kari Lehtonen ¬ $3.55 million
Season: 2.81, 0.911
Career: 2.87, 0.912
Pekka Rinne (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.4 million
Season: 2.53, 0.911
Their average salaries going into the next contracts are $3.8 million, so the $3 million we ask for is very reasonable considering Carey’s closest peers.
3. Pedigree
Drafted 5th overall
CHL goaltender of the year
WJC winning goalie and tournament MVP
Calder Cup winning goalie and tournament MVP
NHL All-Rookie team
NHL All-Star Game
4. Save percentage
Save percentage is the only number that can be trusted among goalie statistics, as it is the only number that belongs to the goaltending performance alone. 0.912 this season and for his career are excellent at his age. It was a single tenth of a percent behind Roberto Luongo.
5. Alternatives
Having traded Halak, without Carey you would look to start the season with Alex Auld in goal and Cedrick Desjardins at back up. Carey offers a massive upgrade to that tandem, replacing the completely NHL-naïve Desjardins from the roster and providing a better start option than Auld.
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