At the beginning of the season, more prognosticators than just myself suggested that the Canadiens would only better their 2012 result if Carey Price were able to turn in a better and more dominant performance.
And from the start it seemed like this may be the case. Carey was more prepared than we'd ever seen him for a season and started the year off with the cool confidence that told his teammates: "you go for goals, I'll take care of the rest."
Showing posts with label Save %. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Save %. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 01, 2013
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
Lion of December
The Real Player of the Month
It won't necessarily be pretty, but they'll be handing out the returning Canadiens the player of the month award tonight at the Bell Centre. If the team stays true to fan voting, then it could be close. I can't find the total ballots as I did last season (maybe the team is trying to conceal the fact that only 200 people vote a game), but based on fan stars, Price (on a so-so season for him) will continue the sweep.
The fans chose Price first star twice, second star once and third star twice over his 13 starts. Next best was Erik Cole who got three seconds and a third. The NHL version of events has Price with his two first, but a less generous one third to go with. Cole on the other hand got a first star nod from the experts and three seconds. By conventional scoring Cole wins media.
It's always hard to choose the best player over a bad month. The Habs this month turned 14 games into 11 points by going 4-7-3. This meant even with the serious bias of Canadiens fans, they still only awarded stars to 25 of a possible 42 recipients.
I think this month was poor enough that consideration should also be given to those players who played well in losing efforts as well as wins. Thus we look to other elements.
This should be painful: Lion of the Month.
Cole
Let's start with conventional stats. He scored 9 goals in 14 games. He assisted on 4 others. He scored those goals in 9 different games, so it's not like we're overvaluing the Ottawa game here.
In terms of goals created, we assessed that Cole created 6.00 goals on his own. This may not sound like much, but consider that means we think he is responsible for 1/6th of the offensive output for the whole team over a month. Noting that he could only ever be 1/6th of the team on at most goalscoring times, even if he played every minute. Exceptional, in other words. He's doing things on and off the puck to make his line a threat most of the time.
Cole was on the ice for 99 chances in December, including 29 of his own. Both clear highs for a forward on the team. Is it sustainable? Perhaps not the goal completion rate, but for the rest he's shown it's just part of the way he plays -- I'd say yes.
Price
If you look purely on the dome/no dome dichotomy Price did enough to win this nod. I wonder though, did he just do enough enough times, however?
We awarded him the player of the game 4 time in his 13 starts. In those games, Price had a 2-1-1 record with a 1.97 GAA and a 0.935 SV%. Good, but the best in the league post this as their average performance. The flip side were his other 9 games where he was 2-5-2 with a 3.19 GAA and an 0.897 SV%.
It's always hard to fault a goalie and often we give the benefit of the doubt to the player in the last line of defence who has been left to fend for himself. Witness 8 domes for that record in 9 games above. Yet, averages are informative because they help us to spot trends and importantly start to compare against other goalies or past performance.
A crude measure of shot quality is shot location. As you know, Olivier of En Attendant les Nordiques goes far to track this aspect with his scoring chance data. When we filter out missed shots we get high quality shots (or at least shots from high quality locations). This year, I have been doing this and finding that of the shots Price faces, about 42% are of this higher quality. Unfortunately I didn't do this last season, but going on the proportion of missed shots that make the scoring chance record this season (76%), this number is up from last season when he was facing about 36% shots from quality areas. All last season, he'd have been saving about 79% of these shots, identical to this December as it happens.
So, to be absolutely fair to Carey, the evidence is mounting that the Habs have been hanging out to dry.
Diaz
A bit of an honourable mention, perhaps. Diaz, 20-odd games into an NHL career has had a month of great growth actually.
Diaz claimed 6 domes from a possible 12, and tied for the most of any defenceman. We do recall that sometimes this was for not being totally awful, but that is on a par with Price, isn't it?
What specifically drew my eye to Diaz were a few little stats. +2 - Diaz has been rather stingy at ES, a team-leading 1.71. This may be due in part to Carey's heroism or luck when he's been on, but it still stands out. As does his ability to keep chances on net off target (misses or blocks) more than others.
He's also been a big cog on the still putrid (but improving PP). The Habs scored 9 PP goals in December on 55ish PPs. It's not a good percentage, but it's better than before. Diaz's increasing comfort at the point is part of that. It's a shame he can't score, but he does have 6.18 Pts/60 for December, a team high. While he was on, the team scored 9.27 goals per 60 minutes of time as well (or about double the team rate), which was also a team high. Obviously one can't do this conversion and take it seriously, but for fun, this goal rate might convert to a 27.8% efficiency rating (based on an avg PP length of 1:48, or 9 minutes over 5 PPs to score 1 goal).
Lion of November: Erik Cole
Diaz wasn't really in the league of the other two, but that speaks volumes about the team as a whole, doesn't it?
I give the nod to Erik Cole. Price had a good month, but you'd always want to add the words "considering the circumstances" after that statement. Cole just had a good month, even an exceptional one. While team tightening and sways in luck will see this future battle likely go to Price as it did in November, one can't just ignore 9 important goals.
As I've aid, this month's battle was a huge disappointment. Diaz, the legitimate #3 is nowhere near vying for this honour. The two realistic contenders are the same two as November. One must start asking where the rest of the team is.
Cole has very good been individually, but his ability to lead or stir his teammates must come next. Desharnais is producing more than he should/would, but Cole has to be used to somehow now re-infect Plekanec, Pacioretty, Kostitsyn, Cammalleri, Eller, Darche, Moen and eventually Gionta to be something better than average at peak performance.
It's a lot to ask of the free agent Hab, but he'll be doing it for himself. That's because if he wants playoff hockey over this contract, the Habs current group with some fire look the better bet than his old mates in Carolina.
The fans chose Price first star twice, second star once and third star twice over his 13 starts. Next best was Erik Cole who got three seconds and a third. The NHL version of events has Price with his two first, but a less generous one third to go with. Cole on the other hand got a first star nod from the experts and three seconds. By conventional scoring Cole wins media.
It's always hard to choose the best player over a bad month. The Habs this month turned 14 games into 11 points by going 4-7-3. This meant even with the serious bias of Canadiens fans, they still only awarded stars to 25 of a possible 42 recipients.
I think this month was poor enough that consideration should also be given to those players who played well in losing efforts as well as wins. Thus we look to other elements.
This should be painful: Lion of the Month.
Cole
Let's start with conventional stats. He scored 9 goals in 14 games. He assisted on 4 others. He scored those goals in 9 different games, so it's not like we're overvaluing the Ottawa game here.
In terms of goals created, we assessed that Cole created 6.00 goals on his own. This may not sound like much, but consider that means we think he is responsible for 1/6th of the offensive output for the whole team over a month. Noting that he could only ever be 1/6th of the team on at most goalscoring times, even if he played every minute. Exceptional, in other words. He's doing things on and off the puck to make his line a threat most of the time.
Cole was on the ice for 99 chances in December, including 29 of his own. Both clear highs for a forward on the team. Is it sustainable? Perhaps not the goal completion rate, but for the rest he's shown it's just part of the way he plays -- I'd say yes.
Price
If you look purely on the dome/no dome dichotomy Price did enough to win this nod. I wonder though, did he just do enough enough times, however?
We awarded him the player of the game 4 time in his 13 starts. In those games, Price had a 2-1-1 record with a 1.97 GAA and a 0.935 SV%. Good, but the best in the league post this as their average performance. The flip side were his other 9 games where he was 2-5-2 with a 3.19 GAA and an 0.897 SV%.
It's always hard to fault a goalie and often we give the benefit of the doubt to the player in the last line of defence who has been left to fend for himself. Witness 8 domes for that record in 9 games above. Yet, averages are informative because they help us to spot trends and importantly start to compare against other goalies or past performance.
A crude measure of shot quality is shot location. As you know, Olivier of En Attendant les Nordiques goes far to track this aspect with his scoring chance data. When we filter out missed shots we get high quality shots (or at least shots from high quality locations). This year, I have been doing this and finding that of the shots Price faces, about 42% are of this higher quality. Unfortunately I didn't do this last season, but going on the proportion of missed shots that make the scoring chance record this season (76%), this number is up from last season when he was facing about 36% shots from quality areas. All last season, he'd have been saving about 79% of these shots, identical to this December as it happens.
So, to be absolutely fair to Carey, the evidence is mounting that the Habs have been hanging out to dry.
Diaz
A bit of an honourable mention, perhaps. Diaz, 20-odd games into an NHL career has had a month of great growth actually.
Diaz claimed 6 domes from a possible 12, and tied for the most of any defenceman. We do recall that sometimes this was for not being totally awful, but that is on a par with Price, isn't it?
What specifically drew my eye to Diaz were a few little stats. +2 - Diaz has been rather stingy at ES, a team-leading 1.71. This may be due in part to Carey's heroism or luck when he's been on, but it still stands out. As does his ability to keep chances on net off target (misses or blocks) more than others.
He's also been a big cog on the still putrid (but improving PP). The Habs scored 9 PP goals in December on 55ish PPs. It's not a good percentage, but it's better than before. Diaz's increasing comfort at the point is part of that. It's a shame he can't score, but he does have 6.18 Pts/60 for December, a team high. While he was on, the team scored 9.27 goals per 60 minutes of time as well (or about double the team rate), which was also a team high. Obviously one can't do this conversion and take it seriously, but for fun, this goal rate might convert to a 27.8% efficiency rating (based on an avg PP length of 1:48, or 9 minutes over 5 PPs to score 1 goal).
Lion of November: Erik Cole
Diaz wasn't really in the league of the other two, but that speaks volumes about the team as a whole, doesn't it?
I give the nod to Erik Cole. Price had a good month, but you'd always want to add the words "considering the circumstances" after that statement. Cole just had a good month, even an exceptional one. While team tightening and sways in luck will see this future battle likely go to Price as it did in November, one can't just ignore 9 important goals.
As I've aid, this month's battle was a huge disappointment. Diaz, the legitimate #3 is nowhere near vying for this honour. The two realistic contenders are the same two as November. One must start asking where the rest of the team is.
Cole has very good been individually, but his ability to lead or stir his teammates must come next. Desharnais is producing more than he should/would, but Cole has to be used to somehow now re-infect Plekanec, Pacioretty, Kostitsyn, Cammalleri, Eller, Darche, Moen and eventually Gionta to be something better than average at peak performance.
It's a lot to ask of the free agent Hab, but he'll be doing it for himself. That's because if he wants playoff hockey over this contract, the Habs current group with some fire look the better bet than his old mates in Carolina.
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
Ready For A Comedown?
Carey Price in 2011-12
You may all remember a time when Canadiens fans argued about the high ceiling of potential for goalies and the choices to be made in the organization.
That time has passed, but we should not forget the lessons that have been imparted on us simple fans by those who saw the future back then.
Good seasons we were told, great seasons, are not to be taken as signs of progression or as benchmarks. Rather we should be happy they occurred and get ready for the comedown.
I argued many times to the contrary in the past, but I have been humbled by witnessing the true trajectory that goalies who post a save percentage over the NHL average face. I will not be fooled into thinking this can be sustained again.
Carey posted a save percentage that we were told just last year was pretty much unsustainable. Those people were dead on about the Habs goalie who posted the unworldly 0.924? Is Carey immune to this argument? We were told that none were.
Carey played above expectation, saving more shots than would be expected based on NHL averages. This we have been told by statisticians talking on other goalies (and Gomez's opposite situation) can't continue. He's too far above and must come down.
The way I see it, as simple fans we need to just accept that a comedown is coming. We should again listen to all those voices we heard in seasons past. Can't you hear them now?
That time has passed, but we should not forget the lessons that have been imparted on us simple fans by those who saw the future back then.
Good seasons we were told, great seasons, are not to be taken as signs of progression or as benchmarks. Rather we should be happy they occurred and get ready for the comedown.
I argued many times to the contrary in the past, but I have been humbled by witnessing the true trajectory that goalies who post a save percentage over the NHL average face. I will not be fooled into thinking this can be sustained again.
Carey posted a save percentage that we were told just last year was pretty much unsustainable. Those people were dead on about the Habs goalie who posted the unworldly 0.924? Is Carey immune to this argument? We were told that none were.
Carey played above expectation, saving more shots than would be expected based on NHL averages. This we have been told by statisticians talking on other goalies (and Gomez's opposite situation) can't continue. He's too far above and must come down.
The way I see it, as simple fans we need to just accept that a comedown is coming. We should again listen to all those voices we heard in seasons past. Can't you hear them now?
Monday, January 17, 2011
Price vs. Price
40 Games By Stats
Carey Price just played his 40th game of the season on Saturday night. An accomplishment in itself for the oft-beleaguered netminder of 2009. As it happens 40 games provides an interesting point to have a more in-depth look at Carey's stats.
As a whole, we rated Carey as a solid A last week, and heard arguments for A-. Overall, I think we'd all have to admit there's been some brilliant goaltending along the way. That's not to say there aren't lingering concerns from our previous roller coaster seasons with the young goalie. Is this an excellent season? Or did Carey just have one excellent stretch? On to the stats...
The 20-20 dichotomy
The 20th the game of the season was Carey Price's 4th shutout. It propelled him to unthinkable numbers: 2.05 GAA and 0.932 Sv%. It was his 19th dome in 19 starts. 12 wins from 19. Critics, we heard were silenced.
At the turn of the 40th, that 31st save clinched a 22nd win and firmed his above average output of 2.37 in GAA and 0.919 in Sv%. At 40 games it is still critic-silencing stuff. He's a winning goalie challenging in important stats categories. Yet his early excellence prompts some examination.
What does it take to get from 0.932 to 0.919? How many goals a game does a goalie have to allow to slip from 2.05 every 60 minutes to 2.37?
Team output?
This is the favourite of many. While it is certainly true that in some games Carey received incredibly poor support from his teammates. the averages tell us that it went both ways. In fact, if you look below, you can see that the Habs scored more goals, allowed fewer shots and fewer chances over the 20 games. If all else was equal, one might have expected a stabilization in stats, if not an improvement.
Looking at things this way is far too simplistic, i realise. But it remains that this is one of the things to examine in this puzzle. It is not the main part of any explanation it seems, from a quick check at least.
A return to earth?
Some stats, no matter how much we want to believe otherwise, are probably just too good to be true. In stats circles, there's endless talk about regression to the mean (they don't like Tim Thomas all the time). In Carey's case, the stat that stood out like a sore thumb was his SHSv%. Over the years I have kept an eye on these things, and can tell you that anything over 0.850 in this category is exceptional. For a goalie to post 0.917 over a season would thoroughly smash established marks and norms. All to say, it probably wasn't going to last.
Since the 20 game mark, Carey has posted a very very good 0.869 on the PK. However, the return to very good from out of this world is at least partially responsible for the drop in all numbers.
A slip in preparation?
At the beginning of the season (at least after those preseason debacles), I marvelled at Carey Price's preparation. Every game, he would come in and just look an impenetrable fortress. His numbers tell the tale.
Below are two charts. The first shows his stats by period. One can see clearly here that in the first twenty games, Carey was truly outstanding at the beginning of games. Over 0.948 for two periods. The second chart shows the stats I have been tracking on when goals go in. Again, Carey was just amazing at Game 20 here. He was allowing the first goal only after an average of nearly 15 shots were taken (and nearly 7 quality scoring chances) -- this gave him game starting numbers of 0.937 and 0.869 for chances. Both outstanding.
But has something happened? The second twenty show little change in play after the second period, but now Carey is a 0.910ish goalie in the first frames. What's more, he's been allowing goals after just 9 shots instead of 15, and 3.6 chances instead of 6.65, dropping his starting game numbers significantly.
Perhaps this is only luck, or a regression to the mean as well. But I'd swear that he's looked different.
The next 20 games are critical
This is all very interesting, but I don't think this sample answers many questions for us just yet. I find it too difficult to dissect from the numbers just now. The slip in preparation teamed with a return to earth seem most likely to hold the key explanation, but we've yet to see.
The biggest question has to be about what that first stretch of the season was. Was it a pleasant surprise? A fortuitously timed one-off streak? Or was it Carey taking his play to a new level? The next 20 games will help us answer which streak (the incredible one or the latest below average spell of ten games) is the real outlier in his play.
For anyone who watched those first 20-30 games as closely as I did, it is tempting to suggest that the real Carey Price played in October and November. But getting real answers takes time. This is an interim update, the final analysis is yet to come.
As a whole, we rated Carey as a solid A last week, and heard arguments for A-. Overall, I think we'd all have to admit there's been some brilliant goaltending along the way. That's not to say there aren't lingering concerns from our previous roller coaster seasons with the young goalie. Is this an excellent season? Or did Carey just have one excellent stretch? On to the stats...
The 20-20 dichotomy
The 20th the game of the season was Carey Price's 4th shutout. It propelled him to unthinkable numbers: 2.05 GAA and 0.932 Sv%. It was his 19th dome in 19 starts. 12 wins from 19. Critics, we heard were silenced.
At the turn of the 40th, that 31st save clinched a 22nd win and firmed his above average output of 2.37 in GAA and 0.919 in Sv%. At 40 games it is still critic-silencing stuff. He's a winning goalie challenging in important stats categories. Yet his early excellence prompts some examination.
What does it take to get from 0.932 to 0.919? How many goals a game does a goalie have to allow to slip from 2.05 every 60 minutes to 2.37?
Team output?
This is the favourite of many. While it is certainly true that in some games Carey received incredibly poor support from his teammates. the averages tell us that it went both ways. In fact, if you look below, you can see that the Habs scored more goals, allowed fewer shots and fewer chances over the 20 games. If all else was equal, one might have expected a stabilization in stats, if not an improvement.
Looking at things this way is far too simplistic, i realise. But it remains that this is one of the things to examine in this puzzle. It is not the main part of any explanation it seems, from a quick check at least.
A return to earth?
Some stats, no matter how much we want to believe otherwise, are probably just too good to be true. In stats circles, there's endless talk about regression to the mean (they don't like Tim Thomas all the time). In Carey's case, the stat that stood out like a sore thumb was his SHSv%. Over the years I have kept an eye on these things, and can tell you that anything over 0.850 in this category is exceptional. For a goalie to post 0.917 over a season would thoroughly smash established marks and norms. All to say, it probably wasn't going to last.
Since the 20 game mark, Carey has posted a very very good 0.869 on the PK. However, the return to very good from out of this world is at least partially responsible for the drop in all numbers.
A slip in preparation?
At the beginning of the season (at least after those preseason debacles), I marvelled at Carey Price's preparation. Every game, he would come in and just look an impenetrable fortress. His numbers tell the tale.
Below are two charts. The first shows his stats by period. One can see clearly here that in the first twenty games, Carey was truly outstanding at the beginning of games. Over 0.948 for two periods. The second chart shows the stats I have been tracking on when goals go in. Again, Carey was just amazing at Game 20 here. He was allowing the first goal only after an average of nearly 15 shots were taken (and nearly 7 quality scoring chances) -- this gave him game starting numbers of 0.937 and 0.869 for chances. Both outstanding.
But has something happened? The second twenty show little change in play after the second period, but now Carey is a 0.910ish goalie in the first frames. What's more, he's been allowing goals after just 9 shots instead of 15, and 3.6 chances instead of 6.65, dropping his starting game numbers significantly.
Perhaps this is only luck, or a regression to the mean as well. But I'd swear that he's looked different.
The next 20 games are critical
This is all very interesting, but I don't think this sample answers many questions for us just yet. I find it too difficult to dissect from the numbers just now. The slip in preparation teamed with a return to earth seem most likely to hold the key explanation, but we've yet to see.
The biggest question has to be about what that first stretch of the season was. Was it a pleasant surprise? A fortuitously timed one-off streak? Or was it Carey taking his play to a new level? The next 20 games will help us answer which streak (the incredible one or the latest below average spell of ten games) is the real outlier in his play.
For anyone who watched those first 20-30 games as closely as I did, it is tempting to suggest that the real Carey Price played in October and November. But getting real answers takes time. This is an interim update, the final analysis is yet to come.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Carey Price Recognized For Sensational Week
We've been waiting for Carey Price to step up and answer Jaroslav Halak for some time. When Jaro came in to the net, he usually left a window for the replaced starter. There were times when Carey answered, but it has rarely been as emphatic as this.
Now, a couple of weeks after Jaro Halak was setting the chatlines alight with his NHL recognized work in October, Carey has answered with a first star nod from the NHL.
There's not much I can say that will speak louder than the statistics, so I'll just lay some of those out for you.
This is what you know already. 3 wins, a shutout, and some pretty heady numbers.
Broken down by period, you can see his success in a different way. Last season, there were no shutouts, and not all that many shutout periods either. 7 shutout periods, including the pivotal three shutout third periods allowed his team to reel in the victories.
Finally, some extra stats from the stats that I keep kicking around. His profile by chances on net (scoring chances with misses and blocked shots removed). You can see it's still extremely heady numbers here. Even more so when you account for the fact that good in scoring chance world is in the 0.800's.
The other two stats show shots before a goal was allowed (SBG) and the save percentage based on that number (starting save percentage). It's difficult for goalies to come in and put up high numbers consistently right from the start of a game, 0.952 is just about as good as it gets.
All in all, a good week for Carey. He certainly headed off any challengers for the next Molson Cup, and will probably wrap up the season title any day now at this rate.
Now, a couple of weeks after Jaro Halak was setting the chatlines alight with his NHL recognized work in October, Carey has answered with a first star nod from the NHL.
There's not much I can say that will speak louder than the statistics, so I'll just lay some of those out for you.
This is what you know already. 3 wins, a shutout, and some pretty heady numbers.
Broken down by period, you can see his success in a different way. Last season, there were no shutouts, and not all that many shutout periods either. 7 shutout periods, including the pivotal three shutout third periods allowed his team to reel in the victories.
Finally, some extra stats from the stats that I keep kicking around. His profile by chances on net (scoring chances with misses and blocked shots removed). You can see it's still extremely heady numbers here. Even more so when you account for the fact that good in scoring chance world is in the 0.800's.
The other two stats show shots before a goal was allowed (SBG) and the save percentage based on that number (starting save percentage). It's difficult for goalies to come in and put up high numbers consistently right from the start of a game, 0.952 is just about as good as it gets.
All in all, a good week for Carey. He certainly headed off any challengers for the next Molson Cup, and will probably wrap up the season title any day now at this rate.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Negotiating On Price:
Habs New Arguments
Price and his agent have played their opening gambit (in our imaginations)and the Canadiens have answered (in our imaginations again). I think we can all agree that unless Gauthier comes up with some stats wizardry or another #1 goalie, the Price team is looking good to pull salary towards their notion of fair dues.
The negotiation now turns to Gauthier and his team to argue the negative (or if they're inventive, the positive) so the salary cap burden of Price is more what they had in mind when they thought he would be the much cheaper option.
[Remember that for these mock purposes, we're assuming that Carey Price’s team is for $3 million as per HabsWorld's uncited "report" (1 to 3 years) and that the Habs are coutering with $1.7 million (2 to 4 years).]
Habs arguments
Other stats
Have you met our new numbers man, Ken Morin? He was only officially hired yesterday, but he came with some numbers in hand which we thought would be handy for these discussions.
You mentioned a 0.912 save percentage. We fully acknowledge that number, but would like to say right off the bat that we don’t exclude playoffs from our analyses, so we’ll be going ahead with a 0.910 number, just so you know.
Just a quick look at other stats from this season. You already mentioned Carey’s 0.912 from the season which ranked him 21st in the league. We’d like to just highlight a few stats to add context:
(min 16 GP)
41 GP (33rd)
39 GS (32nd)
13 W (37th)
0.33 W per start (55th)
0.33 W per 60 min (54th)
2.77 GAA (36th)
0 SO (T 48th)
You present Carey as an established starter with top 20 numbers. Based on what we see, we think he is right where he should be, but is still a developing youngster climbing the ranks. We think it would be fair to pay him as such.
Trends
We have addressed a lot so far, but a common element of 2nd contract negotiations has been conspicuously absent from these talks. Usually, we can all look at a player and draw upward trends. We find the talk about pedigree a bit disingenuous when we consider the decline since season one with Carey.
Our analysis reveals that since his 48th game in the NHL (the 7th game in the 2008 Boston series), where Carey was a 2.49, 0.920 goalie, he has but for very brief bumps been declining or standing still. If this were game 92 we were talking about, there wouldn’t be any reason for concern, but this is 106 games later now – 2 entire NHL seasons.
From game 49 to game 108 (last game of 2009) Carey declined to a 2.76, 0.910 goalie. Since that time, he has stemmed the decline but only to maintain that level.
Again, we are not suggesting this is anyway abnormal for a young goalie, but suggest that paying Carey as a seasoned pro, or a near-elite at this stage is off the mark. He is learning, but learning slowly. We also hope and assume there is still learning to be done and that he’ll be working on this into the upcoming season, if not beyond. As such, we don’t think we should be paying the price as he were the finished article.
Save percentage breakdown
M. Morin has been doing some excellent work, he really has. He has showed us a lot about how to look at save percentage. That is, to see how a goalie comes to his 91% of shots saved.
When we look at when goals are scored, we can see a massive gulf in between what goaltender we get at the beginning of a game compared to the end. Whereas, after a goal is allowed, Carey is on par with those you say are his peers (2.53, 0.920), for the start of games, he has an entirely different set of peers (3.30, 0.892).
Again we’re fully on board with the learning and will support Carey as long as it takes. But this is taken from this past season, and is further evidence of the fact that learning is not done. We think this bolsters our suggestion that paying for the finished article at this point is premature.
Support
Throughout his career until now, we have provided Carey with the best support and opportunities ever afforded to a goaltender of his age. We have showed our support by trading Halak and by signing in a veteran back up willing and able to support 60 games from Carey.
We continue to show this support and will do as he continues to learn his trade at this high level. Knowing Carey the way we do, and knowing what he needs from our years together, we think we offer him the best environment there is to thrive at the moment.
Opportunity
Currently Montreal stands as one of two teams (if we assume Huet and Niemi haven’t been settled on) where there is a starting position. Rather than looking on starts as a burden, we think starts are an asset to your client. We don’t think he can get this opportunity anywhere else in the NHL at the present time.
In the balance
Gauthier digs deep here. But is it enough to overcome the fact he chose Price long ago and would rely on Auld and an AHLer if Price were to opt out?
The negotiation now turns to Gauthier and his team to argue the negative (or if they're inventive, the positive) so the salary cap burden of Price is more what they had in mind when they thought he would be the much cheaper option.
[Remember that for these mock purposes, we're assuming that Carey Price’s team is for $3 million as per HabsWorld's uncited "report" (1 to 3 years) and that the Habs are coutering with $1.7 million (2 to 4 years).]
Habs arguments
Other stats
Have you met our new numbers man, Ken Morin? He was only officially hired yesterday, but he came with some numbers in hand which we thought would be handy for these discussions.
You mentioned a 0.912 save percentage. We fully acknowledge that number, but would like to say right off the bat that we don’t exclude playoffs from our analyses, so we’ll be going ahead with a 0.910 number, just so you know.
Just a quick look at other stats from this season. You already mentioned Carey’s 0.912 from the season which ranked him 21st in the league. We’d like to just highlight a few stats to add context:
(min 16 GP)
41 GP (33rd)
39 GS (32nd)
13 W (37th)
0.33 W per start (55th)
0.33 W per 60 min (54th)
2.77 GAA (36th)
0 SO (T 48th)
You present Carey as an established starter with top 20 numbers. Based on what we see, we think he is right where he should be, but is still a developing youngster climbing the ranks. We think it would be fair to pay him as such.
Trends
We have addressed a lot so far, but a common element of 2nd contract negotiations has been conspicuously absent from these talks. Usually, we can all look at a player and draw upward trends. We find the talk about pedigree a bit disingenuous when we consider the decline since season one with Carey.
Our analysis reveals that since his 48th game in the NHL (the 7th game in the 2008 Boston series), where Carey was a 2.49, 0.920 goalie, he has but for very brief bumps been declining or standing still. If this were game 92 we were talking about, there wouldn’t be any reason for concern, but this is 106 games later now – 2 entire NHL seasons.
From game 49 to game 108 (last game of 2009) Carey declined to a 2.76, 0.910 goalie. Since that time, he has stemmed the decline but only to maintain that level.
Again, we are not suggesting this is anyway abnormal for a young goalie, but suggest that paying Carey as a seasoned pro, or a near-elite at this stage is off the mark. He is learning, but learning slowly. We also hope and assume there is still learning to be done and that he’ll be working on this into the upcoming season, if not beyond. As such, we don’t think we should be paying the price as he were the finished article.
Save percentage breakdown
M. Morin has been doing some excellent work, he really has. He has showed us a lot about how to look at save percentage. That is, to see how a goalie comes to his 91% of shots saved.
When we look at when goals are scored, we can see a massive gulf in between what goaltender we get at the beginning of a game compared to the end. Whereas, after a goal is allowed, Carey is on par with those you say are his peers (2.53, 0.920), for the start of games, he has an entirely different set of peers (3.30, 0.892).
Again we’re fully on board with the learning and will support Carey as long as it takes. But this is taken from this past season, and is further evidence of the fact that learning is not done. We think this bolsters our suggestion that paying for the finished article at this point is premature.
Support
Throughout his career until now, we have provided Carey with the best support and opportunities ever afforded to a goaltender of his age. We have showed our support by trading Halak and by signing in a veteran back up willing and able to support 60 games from Carey.
We continue to show this support and will do as he continues to learn his trade at this high level. Knowing Carey the way we do, and knowing what he needs from our years together, we think we offer him the best environment there is to thrive at the moment.
Opportunity
Currently Montreal stands as one of two teams (if we assume Huet and Niemi haven’t been settled on) where there is a starting position. Rather than looking on starts as a burden, we think starts are an asset to your client. We don’t think he can get this opportunity anywhere else in the NHL at the present time.
In the balance
Gauthier digs deep here. But is it enough to overcome the fact he chose Price long ago and would rely on Auld and an AHLer if Price were to opt out?
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Negotiating On Price:
Gauthier Answers
Price and his agent have just given their rationale for a $3 million a year salary to the Canadiens (in our little game).
Now, I play the role of Gauthier and management having just heard the Price stance.
[Remember that for these mock purposes, we're assuming that Carey Price’s team is for $3 million as per HabsWorld's uncited "report" (1 to 3 years) and that the Habs are coutering with $1.7 million (2 to 4 years).]
Carey Price camp opening arguments (Team Price in italics)
Starting goalie money
The average goalie salary (cap hit) in the NHL is $2.51 million
The average among starters is $3.75 million
Removing entry level for starters gives $4.1 million
You want Carey to be a starting goalie in one of the biggest fanbases with some of the biggest revenue in the NHL. He shouldn’t be far below average.
Habs response:
Be reasonable.
First let’s remove the top tier:
The average for starters falls to $2.51 million
Even without entry level, that’s $2.87 million
Some of those guys are long-time NHLers, others have outperformed Carey recently (see Halak, Jaroslav). Removing those, we end with an average of $1.98 million.
Carey would be right in the ballpark of his peers with a salary below $2 million.
Comparables
Carey Price (3 seasons)
Season: 2.77, 0.912
Career: 2.73, 0.912
Jonas Hiller (3 seasons) ¬ $4.5 million
Season: 2.73, 0.918
Jaroslav Halak (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.75 million
Career: 2.62, 0.919
Kari Lehtonen ¬ $3.55 million
Season: 2.81, 0.911
Career: 2.87, 0.912
Pekka Rinne (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.4 million
Season: 2.53, 0.911
Their average salaries going into the next contracts are $3.8 million, so the $3 million we ask for is very reasonable considering Carey’s closest peers.
Habs response:
Closest peers? Sorry, but allow us to fill in your omissions:
Jonas Hiller (3 seasons) ¬ $4.5 million
Season: 2.73, 0.918
Career: 2.49, 0.920
Jaroslav Halak (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.75 million
Season: 2.40, 0.924
Career: 2.62, 0.919
Outplayed Carey on the same team
Kari Lehtonen (6 seasons) ¬ $3.55 million
Season: 2.81, 0.911
Career: 2.87, 0.912
Pekka Rinne (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.4 million
Season: 2.53, 0.911
Career: 2.46, 0.914, with 62W, 32L, 9OTL
Rinne is the only possible peer there, but we find it hard to be tied to what we think is a bad contract for a 3rd year NHLer handed out in Nashville.
We propose a few more peers:
Carey Price (3 seasons)
Season: 2.77, 0.912
Career: 2.73, 0.912
Mike Smith (4 seasons) ¬ $2.2 million
Career: 2.69, 0.907
Jonathan Quick (2 seasons) ¬ $1.8 million
Season: 2.54, 0.907
Career: 2.54, 0.908
Dan Ellis (3 seasons) ¬ $1.5 million
Season: 2.69, 0.909
Career: 2.64, 0.912
Josh Harding (3 seasons) ¬ $1.2 million
Career: 2.56, 0.915
The average here with Carey’s truest peers in terms of experience and performance to date is in line with what we are proposing, about $1.59 million a season.
Team Price responds:
Hang on, you omit as well.
Mike Smith (4 seasons) ¬ $2.2 million
Season: 3.09, 0.900
Career: 2.69, 0.907
Jonathan Quick (2 seasons) ¬ $1.8 million
Season: 2.54, 0.907
Career: 2.54, 0.908
Dan Ellis (3 seasons) ¬ $1.5 million
Season: 2.69, 0.909
Career: 2.64, 0.912
Josh Harding (3 seasons) ¬ $1.2 million
Season: 3.05, 0.905
Career: 2.56, 0.915
Habs again:
We’ll happily omit Mike Smith from the math if you want.
Pedigree
Drafted 5th overall
CHL goaltender of the year
WJC winning goalie and tournament MVP
Calder Cup winning goalie and tournament MVP
NHL All-Rookie team
NHL All-Star Game
Habs response:
Yes, we’re ware of the pedigree. We did draft Carey.
To be fair to us, we have already paid him for this pedigree in the original contract and offered generous bonuses because his potential merited as much. But let’s be honest, the CHL galtender of the year and WJC are as relevant to this negotiation as Kovalchuk’s contract. The AHL championship run has not been replicated in the NHL playoffs yet. We are paying for NHL play and would prefer to base our offer on NHL numbers that we can all understand.
Team Price responds:
Perhaps, but Carey is a 22 year-old. His age peers are negotiating their contracts with 3 year old CV items weighing heavily in their favour. If you want to discount past success, then we must insist on some adjustment of stance on his numbers to take into account Carey’s young age upon compiling these numbers.
Remember that you as managers must still rely on this pedigree to defend this goaltending decision. If you're using pedigree, so are we.
Save percentage
Save percentage is the only number that can be trusted among goalie statistics, as it is the only number that belongs to the goaltending performance alone. 0.912 this season and for his career are excellent at his age. It was a single tenth of a percent behind Roberto Luongo.
Habs response:
0.912 is very respectable and we were pleased with the rate at which Carey made saves, but let’s not lose the big picture. That rate was average for the league this season. 0.912 put Carey in 20th in this statistic.
We also want to look at this statistic in the context of all others, rather than do a cherry pick. But we will address this again later.
Alternatives
Having traded Halak, without Carey you would look to start the season with Alex Auld in goal and Cedrick Desjardins at back up. Carey offers a massive upgrade to that tandem, replacing the completely NHL-naïve Desjardins from the roster and providing a better start option than Auld.
Habs response:
Pensive look. [Though goes through the miind to respond: "Nabokov, Turco and Theodore can offer us the same solution." Gauthier thinks better of it. He's mocked on the internet and in the media, he doesn't need to be mocked at this negotiating table]
In the balance?
As in arbitration, average salaries and comparables can be spun more than one way. Save percentage still falls in Price's favour for the moment without a statistical riposte and pedigree and alternatives hang over the Habs as problems of their own making.
Now, I play the role of Gauthier and management having just heard the Price stance.
[Remember that for these mock purposes, we're assuming that Carey Price’s team is for $3 million as per HabsWorld's uncited "report" (1 to 3 years) and that the Habs are coutering with $1.7 million (2 to 4 years).]
Carey Price camp opening arguments (Team Price in italics)
Starting goalie money
The average goalie salary (cap hit) in the NHL is $2.51 million
The average among starters is $3.75 million
Removing entry level for starters gives $4.1 million
You want Carey to be a starting goalie in one of the biggest fanbases with some of the biggest revenue in the NHL. He shouldn’t be far below average.
Habs response:
Be reasonable.
First let’s remove the top tier:
The average for starters falls to $2.51 million
Even without entry level, that’s $2.87 million
Some of those guys are long-time NHLers, others have outperformed Carey recently (see Halak, Jaroslav). Removing those, we end with an average of $1.98 million.
Carey would be right in the ballpark of his peers with a salary below $2 million.
Comparables
Carey Price (3 seasons)
Season: 2.77, 0.912
Career: 2.73, 0.912
Jonas Hiller (3 seasons) ¬ $4.5 million
Season: 2.73, 0.918
Jaroslav Halak (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.75 million
Career: 2.62, 0.919
Kari Lehtonen ¬ $3.55 million
Season: 2.81, 0.911
Career: 2.87, 0.912
Pekka Rinne (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.4 million
Season: 2.53, 0.911
Their average salaries going into the next contracts are $3.8 million, so the $3 million we ask for is very reasonable considering Carey’s closest peers.
Habs response:
Closest peers? Sorry, but allow us to fill in your omissions:
Jonas Hiller (3 seasons) ¬ $4.5 million
Season: 2.73, 0.918
Career: 2.49, 0.920
Jaroslav Halak (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.75 million
Season: 2.40, 0.924
Career: 2.62, 0.919
Outplayed Carey on the same team
Kari Lehtonen (6 seasons) ¬ $3.55 million
Season: 2.81, 0.911
Career: 2.87, 0.912
Pekka Rinne (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.4 million
Season: 2.53, 0.911
Career: 2.46, 0.914, with 62W, 32L, 9OTL
Rinne is the only possible peer there, but we find it hard to be tied to what we think is a bad contract for a 3rd year NHLer handed out in Nashville.
We propose a few more peers:
Carey Price (3 seasons)
Season: 2.77, 0.912
Career: 2.73, 0.912
Mike Smith (4 seasons) ¬ $2.2 million
Career: 2.69, 0.907
Jonathan Quick (2 seasons) ¬ $1.8 million
Season: 2.54, 0.907
Career: 2.54, 0.908
Dan Ellis (3 seasons) ¬ $1.5 million
Season: 2.69, 0.909
Career: 2.64, 0.912
Josh Harding (3 seasons) ¬ $1.2 million
Career: 2.56, 0.915
The average here with Carey’s truest peers in terms of experience and performance to date is in line with what we are proposing, about $1.59 million a season.
Team Price responds:
Hang on, you omit as well.
Mike Smith (4 seasons) ¬ $2.2 million
Season: 3.09, 0.900
Career: 2.69, 0.907
Jonathan Quick (2 seasons) ¬ $1.8 million
Season: 2.54, 0.907
Career: 2.54, 0.908
Dan Ellis (3 seasons) ¬ $1.5 million
Season: 2.69, 0.909
Career: 2.64, 0.912
Josh Harding (3 seasons) ¬ $1.2 million
Season: 3.05, 0.905
Career: 2.56, 0.915
Habs again:
We’ll happily omit Mike Smith from the math if you want.
Pedigree
Drafted 5th overall
CHL goaltender of the year
WJC winning goalie and tournament MVP
Calder Cup winning goalie and tournament MVP
NHL All-Rookie team
NHL All-Star Game
Habs response:
Yes, we’re ware of the pedigree. We did draft Carey.
To be fair to us, we have already paid him for this pedigree in the original contract and offered generous bonuses because his potential merited as much. But let’s be honest, the CHL galtender of the year and WJC are as relevant to this negotiation as Kovalchuk’s contract. The AHL championship run has not been replicated in the NHL playoffs yet. We are paying for NHL play and would prefer to base our offer on NHL numbers that we can all understand.
Team Price responds:
Perhaps, but Carey is a 22 year-old. His age peers are negotiating their contracts with 3 year old CV items weighing heavily in their favour. If you want to discount past success, then we must insist on some adjustment of stance on his numbers to take into account Carey’s young age upon compiling these numbers.
Remember that you as managers must still rely on this pedigree to defend this goaltending decision. If you're using pedigree, so are we.
Save percentage
Save percentage is the only number that can be trusted among goalie statistics, as it is the only number that belongs to the goaltending performance alone. 0.912 this season and for his career are excellent at his age. It was a single tenth of a percent behind Roberto Luongo.
Habs response:
0.912 is very respectable and we were pleased with the rate at which Carey made saves, but let’s not lose the big picture. That rate was average for the league this season. 0.912 put Carey in 20th in this statistic.
We also want to look at this statistic in the context of all others, rather than do a cherry pick. But we will address this again later.
Alternatives
Having traded Halak, without Carey you would look to start the season with Alex Auld in goal and Cedrick Desjardins at back up. Carey offers a massive upgrade to that tandem, replacing the completely NHL-naïve Desjardins from the roster and providing a better start option than Auld.
Habs response:
Pensive look. [Though goes through the miind to respond: "Nabokov, Turco and Theodore can offer us the same solution." Gauthier thinks better of it. He's mocked on the internet and in the media, he doesn't need to be mocked at this negotiating table]
In the balance?
As in arbitration, average salaries and comparables can be spun more than one way. Save percentage still falls in Price's favour for the moment without a statistical riposte and pedigree and alternatives hang over the Habs as problems of their own making.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Negotiating On Price:
Opening Parry
The last Canadiens game was played more than 2 months ago now. As the sun set on the Canadiens season, there were questions everywhere, except it seemed in goal. In goal, Jaroslav Halak had been the undisputed star for the Canadiens, if not the league in the playoffs to that point, and Carey Price warmed the bench.
But the offseason has cast a new light on matters. Halak was traded, of course. But even after that lingering negotiations have led to looming questions. For a brief period on July 1, Robert Mayer was the highest ranked goalie on the Montreal payroll. He was to be bumped to NHL back-up in the depth chart by the signing of Alex Auld and later to a more sensible place as Gauthier retained Desjardins and Sanford. As Price’s contract talks drag on, the depth chart of today still has Mayer in Hamilton, with Auld and probably Desjardins in Montreal.
That situation is pure fantasy, though, as Carey Price must be as near a certainty to sign on as there ever was. But Auld, Desjardins, Sanford, Mayer. Some have said it’s not leverage for the goalie and his agent, fans who ponder their upcoming cable package might disagree.
Anyway, we put aside the possibility that Price will not be signed instead looking to the terms of the contract he will eventually sign. For fun, I thought of the negotiation as a mock arbitration setting (probably not that far from the truth) with each side presenting their arguments and counter-arguments.
For mock purposes, let’s assume that Carey Price’s team is indeed asking for the $3 million that HabsWorld comes up with in its uncited "report" (1 to 3 years). The Habs we’ll assume by the hold up are not into that, we’ll say they started at $1.7 million (2 to 4 years).
Carey Price camp opening arguments
1. Starting goalie money
The average goalie salary (cap hit) in the NHL is $2.51 million
The average among starters is $3.75 million
Removing entry level for starters gives $4.1 million
You want Carey to be a starting goalie in one of the biggest fanbases with some of the biggest revenue in the NHL. He shouldn’t be far below average.
2. Comparables
Carey Price (3 seasons)
Season: 2.77, 0.912
Career: 2.73, 0.912
Jonas Hiller (3 seasons) ¬ $4.5 million
Season: 2.73, 0.918
Jaroslav Halak (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.75 million
Career: 2.62, 0.919
Kari Lehtonen ¬ $3.55 million
Season: 2.81, 0.911
Career: 2.87, 0.912
Pekka Rinne (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.4 million
Season: 2.53, 0.911
Their average salaries going into the next contracts are $3.8 million, so the $3 million we ask for is very reasonable considering Carey’s closest peers.
3. Pedigree
Drafted 5th overall
CHL goaltender of the year
WJC winning goalie and tournament MVP
Calder Cup winning goalie and tournament MVP
NHL All-Rookie team
NHL All-Star Game
4. Save percentage
Save percentage is the only number that can be trusted among goalie statistics, as it is the only number that belongs to the goaltending performance alone. 0.912 this season and for his career are excellent at his age. It was a single tenth of a percent behind Roberto Luongo.
5. Alternatives
Having traded Halak, without Carey you would look to start the season with Alex Auld in goal and Cedrick Desjardins at back up. Carey offers a massive upgrade to that tandem, replacing the completely NHL-naïve Desjardins from the roster and providing a better start option than Auld.
But the offseason has cast a new light on matters. Halak was traded, of course. But even after that lingering negotiations have led to looming questions. For a brief period on July 1, Robert Mayer was the highest ranked goalie on the Montreal payroll. He was to be bumped to NHL back-up in the depth chart by the signing of Alex Auld and later to a more sensible place as Gauthier retained Desjardins and Sanford. As Price’s contract talks drag on, the depth chart of today still has Mayer in Hamilton, with Auld and probably Desjardins in Montreal.
That situation is pure fantasy, though, as Carey Price must be as near a certainty to sign on as there ever was. But Auld, Desjardins, Sanford, Mayer. Some have said it’s not leverage for the goalie and his agent, fans who ponder their upcoming cable package might disagree.
Anyway, we put aside the possibility that Price will not be signed instead looking to the terms of the contract he will eventually sign. For fun, I thought of the negotiation as a mock arbitration setting (probably not that far from the truth) with each side presenting their arguments and counter-arguments.
For mock purposes, let’s assume that Carey Price’s team is indeed asking for the $3 million that HabsWorld comes up with in its uncited "report" (1 to 3 years). The Habs we’ll assume by the hold up are not into that, we’ll say they started at $1.7 million (2 to 4 years).
Carey Price camp opening arguments
1. Starting goalie money
The average goalie salary (cap hit) in the NHL is $2.51 million
The average among starters is $3.75 million
Removing entry level for starters gives $4.1 million
You want Carey to be a starting goalie in one of the biggest fanbases with some of the biggest revenue in the NHL. He shouldn’t be far below average.
2. Comparables
Carey Price (3 seasons)
Season: 2.77, 0.912
Career: 2.73, 0.912
Jonas Hiller (3 seasons) ¬ $4.5 million
Season: 2.73, 0.918
Jaroslav Halak (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.75 million
Career: 2.62, 0.919
Kari Lehtonen ¬ $3.55 million
Season: 2.81, 0.911
Career: 2.87, 0.912
Pekka Rinne (2 full seasons) ¬ $3.4 million
Season: 2.53, 0.911
Their average salaries going into the next contracts are $3.8 million, so the $3 million we ask for is very reasonable considering Carey’s closest peers.
3. Pedigree
Drafted 5th overall
CHL goaltender of the year
WJC winning goalie and tournament MVP
Calder Cup winning goalie and tournament MVP
NHL All-Rookie team
NHL All-Star Game
4. Save percentage
Save percentage is the only number that can be trusted among goalie statistics, as it is the only number that belongs to the goaltending performance alone. 0.912 this season and for his career are excellent at his age. It was a single tenth of a percent behind Roberto Luongo.
5. Alternatives
Having traded Halak, without Carey you would look to start the season with Alex Auld in goal and Cedrick Desjardins at back up. Carey offers a massive upgrade to that tandem, replacing the completely NHL-naïve Desjardins from the roster and providing a better start option than Auld.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Why Are Buffalo Where We Want To Be?
Take a look at the standings. Your Habs are in eighth position.
Montreal fans don't seem to do well with the prospect of an actual marathon race. They don't mind 82 games, but prefer to sprint out in front and coast home, if at all possible. All this jostling is fraying for the nerves.
So take another look at the standings. There are teams who've sprinted ahead for one reason or another, there are teams that provide their fans with a level of comfort about what will happen in the standings this season, about what will happen any given night.
One of those teams happens to be leading our division – the Buffalo Sabres.
This can't be right, can it? The Sabres? They haven't fired a GM in a decade. Heck, they haven't even fired a coach in a decade. They never get a high draft pick, they never sign big free agents and they often lose their own stars for what usually amounts to nothing.
The Sabres are ahead of us? The Sabres are where we want to be?
One has to ask: Why?
Last summer, the Sabres went the opposite route to the Habs. While Gainey was busy replacing the players that left Montreal with free agents, the Sabres have done what they have done since time immermorial and called the Rochester Americans. Two 41-win teams taking very different routes to start a season. Is this why?
It certainly is tempting to point to this reasoning as the creator of said gap in the standings. Consistency over shuffle, development over hostile acquisition. There are a few who would reach at this to back up their instinct that Gainey lost his mind in the summer. I think that would be wrong. For every Gomez, there has been a Cammalleri in Montreal. The Sabres don't yet have a 10-goal man, you can't tell me they wouldn't have wanted one in place of say Mike Grier? We are in position to know that Spacek can be a good D to have around, even more so when you consider he fit right in Buffalo.
No, it's not the summer strategy...
Perhaps then it is the Sabres balanced approach to team offense and defence that sets them apart from the Canadiens.
Another low-hanging fruit, and certainly one the media spins out to no end. You know what though? Buffalo as a team has been allowing more than 30 shots a game this year just like Montreal. Their 30.5 shots against vs. our 31.6 for every 60 minutes is probably not the cause of the 7-point spread with games in hand.
Nor is offense their secret. They've scored more goals per game than the Habs, but fewer overall thus far. We have a better PP than them as well.
Look again at the standings. One thing might stand out more now: goals against. That check for the supposition above showed that it wasn't Rivet and his amazing compatriots guarding the Buffalo net in unison, yet the Sabres have allowed 30 fewer goals in 30 fewer games.
Ryan Miller...
Now I'm done with my silly introduction, I bring you to the answer all hockey fans knew as soon as they read the title. Ryan Miller is the answer.
To this point in the season, Ryan Miller is leading the league with a 1.83 GAA and an unworldly 0.939 save %. He has 18 wins in his 26 starts, to go along with 4 shutouts. 2 games ago he shutout the mighty Capitals who directed 35 shots his way.
The Canadiens for their part have Carey Price, who is indeed hot again. I thought it would be interesting to show you the difference between a goalie playing very well (Carey) and a goalie playing absolutely out of his head (Ryan). For fairness, I have only taken games from November 1st on, since before that time Carey was a bit of a basketcase – thereby making a comparison of their better play.
Impressed yet?
So as you settle in to watch Buffalo tonight be kind to Montreal skaters. They are facing a Buffalo opponent not seen since the late 1990s with a save percentage like that. Perhaps it is a bubble waiting to be burst, perhaps not.
Let's also hope Carey gets plenty of time to sit back and watch while his teammates test Miller adequately. He could use the rest and might learn some important lessons from a guy who has been showing that clicking on all cylinders for an extended period is possible.
Montreal fans don't seem to do well with the prospect of an actual marathon race. They don't mind 82 games, but prefer to sprint out in front and coast home, if at all possible. All this jostling is fraying for the nerves.
So take another look at the standings. There are teams who've sprinted ahead for one reason or another, there are teams that provide their fans with a level of comfort about what will happen in the standings this season, about what will happen any given night.
One of those teams happens to be leading our division – the Buffalo Sabres.
This can't be right, can it? The Sabres? They haven't fired a GM in a decade. Heck, they haven't even fired a coach in a decade. They never get a high draft pick, they never sign big free agents and they often lose their own stars for what usually amounts to nothing.
The Sabres are ahead of us? The Sabres are where we want to be?
One has to ask: Why?
Last summer, the Sabres went the opposite route to the Habs. While Gainey was busy replacing the players that left Montreal with free agents, the Sabres have done what they have done since time immermorial and called the Rochester Americans. Two 41-win teams taking very different routes to start a season. Is this why?
It certainly is tempting to point to this reasoning as the creator of said gap in the standings. Consistency over shuffle, development over hostile acquisition. There are a few who would reach at this to back up their instinct that Gainey lost his mind in the summer. I think that would be wrong. For every Gomez, there has been a Cammalleri in Montreal. The Sabres don't yet have a 10-goal man, you can't tell me they wouldn't have wanted one in place of say Mike Grier? We are in position to know that Spacek can be a good D to have around, even more so when you consider he fit right in Buffalo.
No, it's not the summer strategy...
Perhaps then it is the Sabres balanced approach to team offense and defence that sets them apart from the Canadiens.
Another low-hanging fruit, and certainly one the media spins out to no end. You know what though? Buffalo as a team has been allowing more than 30 shots a game this year just like Montreal. Their 30.5 shots against vs. our 31.6 for every 60 minutes is probably not the cause of the 7-point spread with games in hand.
Nor is offense their secret. They've scored more goals per game than the Habs, but fewer overall thus far. We have a better PP than them as well.
Look again at the standings. One thing might stand out more now: goals against. That check for the supposition above showed that it wasn't Rivet and his amazing compatriots guarding the Buffalo net in unison, yet the Sabres have allowed 30 fewer goals in 30 fewer games.
Ryan Miller...
Now I'm done with my silly introduction, I bring you to the answer all hockey fans knew as soon as they read the title. Ryan Miller is the answer.
To this point in the season, Ryan Miller is leading the league with a 1.83 GAA and an unworldly 0.939 save %. He has 18 wins in his 26 starts, to go along with 4 shutouts. 2 games ago he shutout the mighty Capitals who directed 35 shots his way.
The Canadiens for their part have Carey Price, who is indeed hot again. I thought it would be interesting to show you the difference between a goalie playing very well (Carey) and a goalie playing absolutely out of his head (Ryan). For fairness, I have only taken games from November 1st on, since before that time Carey was a bit of a basketcase – thereby making a comparison of their better play.
| Carey Price | Ryan Miller | Miller differential | |
| Games played | 16 | 16 | 0 GP |
| Record | 7-6-3 | 10-5-1 | 3W, 4 Pts |
| GA | 40 | 29 | -11 GA |
| GAA | 2.46 | 1.82 | -0.64 GA/G |
| SA | 517 | 486 | -31 SA |
| S% | 0.922 | 0.940 | 0.018 (=9 GA) |
| S0 | 0 | 3 | 3 SO |
| GF by team | 41 | 41 | 0 GF |
| 1-goal wins | 3 | 3 | 0 W |
| ≥30 SA | 0.500 | 0.667 | +0.167 |
| <30> | 0.625 | 0.643 | +0.018 |
| Best S% | 0.977 | 1.000 | +0.023 |
| Worst S% | 0.833 | 0.783 | -0.050 |
Impressed yet?
So as you settle in to watch Buffalo tonight be kind to Montreal skaters. They are facing a Buffalo opponent not seen since the late 1990s with a save percentage like that. Perhaps it is a bubble waiting to be burst, perhaps not.
Let's also hope Carey gets plenty of time to sit back and watch while his teammates test Miller adequately. He could use the rest and might learn some important lessons from a guy who has been showing that clicking on all cylinders for an extended period is possible.
Saturday, February 02, 2008
The Underappreciated Cristobal Huet (Stats Suite)
In scanning the blogs today, I came across one that I thought looked a bit more unique. Although Cristobal Huet was named one of the NHL's three stars for the month of January, his play has gone largely unheralded for much of the season.
This piece by considerate and well-written blogger T.C. Denault at HabsWorld, is an excellent read and I recommend it. The piece is very complete and considers most of the relevant material (basically a professional job of it); however, I did take the liberty of supplementing it with some stats, here below, to add to the argument myself.
(I should also credit Tobalev on this one, as he has been telling me about these stats for months on end, as a tireless Huet advocate and admirer)
With Huet, we somehow know the guy is good, but perhaps don't appreciate how good. I wanted to add to Denault's piece with some stats I ran this morning on Huet, and some thoughts.
1) T.C. recognises that:
But also consider for a minute that Nabokov, Turco and Hasek have never had a better save percentage than Huet over these three seasons. When you add to this the fact that Brodeur, DiPietro, Kiprusoff, Giguere, Vokoun and Lundqvist have only outranked him in this category once, then you can see how well he has been able to do.
In fact, only Roberto Luongo (of all goalies playing enough games to be considered) has outdone Huet in two out of the three seasons including this one. Huet may yet remedy that as he sits one 1/1000th behind the Vancouver goalie at present (.924 vs. .923).
2) Cristobal Huet is one of 13 goalies to post a Save % of greater than .920 over the three seasons. He is one of 9 to maintain this stat at the end of a season. And, he is one of 2 among those who have achieved the feat in the past to be able to achieve that height again this season. The other, of course, is Luongo.
If you indulge the belief that Save % is the true personal statistic for a goalie (best estimate in any case) like I do, this fact is truly impressive. Particularly, because I feel that .920 is a mark of excellence in goalies, just as .900 is a nminimum standard to make an NHL living.
3) Finally, consider that Cristobal Huet has the best cumulative Save % of anyone not named Dan Ellis (only 21 GP), over the past 3 seasons (Top 10 goalies over 3 years of those that have outranked Huet at least once in Save %):
Dan Ellis
41 GA, 540 SA: .924
Cristobal Huet
259 GA, 3384 SA: .923
Nicklas Backstrom
150 GA, 1932 SA: .922
Roberto Luongo
479 GA, 5902 SA: .919
Tomas Vokoun
389 GA, 4777 SA: .919
Martin Brodeur
459 GA, 5505 SA: .917
Tim Thomas
368 GA, 4323 SA: .915
Mikka Kiprusoff
448 GA, 5496 SA: .915
Henrik Lundqvist
383 GA, 4496 SA: .915
Chris Mason
239 GA, 2802 SA: .915
JS Giguere
362 GA, 4228 SA: .914
Finally, it is interesting to consider that one knock on Huet is that his ability to win when things are on the line is questionable.
As we're keeping a better log this year of performances, both objective and subjective, I'd say that's just not true. He has been among the three stars as many times as anyone but Kovalev and Tobalev has picked him as outright player of the game 9 times in 51 opportunities. Furthermore, in games where he has faltered early, his ability to regain composure and "shut the door" so his teammates have a chance to come back has been impressive.
As for big games, we can look to the spring of 2006 as evidence that he has the ability to pull those off. His regular season heroics, where he eventually ended up posting the number one Save % in the league (.929) and taking the Habs into the playoffs all came in pressure games.
Furthermore, he went on to post an impressive .929 Save % again in the playoffs against the number two team and eventual Cup champions (Carolina), who also had the third best offense in the league to that point. Of course I remember the Williams goal that sealed the deal, but one could find similar evidence against any goalie who did not win the Cup in any given year (even Brodeur).
It's for that reason, I can look past the 82nd game of last season now, even though it has taken a while.
Basically, Cristobal has earned his redemption by reproving his worth this season. He has shown us that that Toronto debacle and those 5 losses in Feb 2007 were the anomaly, not his all-star selection, league leading Save % or regular season heroics in 2006. If I'm so bold, I would say that were it not for his injury in February last season, we would have made the playoffs, even with the scoring woes.
You can't pay too much top goaltending of this variety (not when the salary fits under the max salary anyway). And, as a bonus, Huet would be the perfect mentor for any young star goalie coming through, of which we have 2. If I'm Bob Gainey, I do make an effort to re-sign the French goaltender right away. And since Gainey has gone on record as saying there is no policy for not negotiating contracts in the season, I am sure that these discussions have already been broached. Whether Huet is pricing himself out of the Canadiens salary comfort zone is altogether another matter.
This piece by considerate and well-written blogger T.C. Denault at HabsWorld, is an excellent read and I recommend it. The piece is very complete and considers most of the relevant material (basically a professional job of it); however, I did take the liberty of supplementing it with some stats, here below, to add to the argument myself.
(I should also credit Tobalev on this one, as he has been telling me about these stats for months on end, as a tireless Huet advocate and admirer)
With Huet, we somehow know the guy is good, but perhaps don't appreciate how good. I wanted to add to Denault's piece with some stats I ran this morning on Huet, and some thoughts.
1) T.C. recognises that:
For an idea of Huet’s value this year, consider this; his save percentage is equal to Vancouver’s Roberto Luongo, and is better than some of his more well known contemporaries, such as Martin Brodeur, Evgeni Nabokov, Rick Dipietro, Henrik Lundqvist, Marty Turco, and Dominic Hasek.
But also consider for a minute that Nabokov, Turco and Hasek have never had a better save percentage than Huet over these three seasons. When you add to this the fact that Brodeur, DiPietro, Kiprusoff, Giguere, Vokoun and Lundqvist have only outranked him in this category once, then you can see how well he has been able to do.
In fact, only Roberto Luongo (of all goalies playing enough games to be considered) has outdone Huet in two out of the three seasons including this one. Huet may yet remedy that as he sits one 1/1000th behind the Vancouver goalie at present (.924 vs. .923).
2) Cristobal Huet is one of 13 goalies to post a Save % of greater than .920 over the three seasons. He is one of 9 to maintain this stat at the end of a season. And, he is one of 2 among those who have achieved the feat in the past to be able to achieve that height again this season. The other, of course, is Luongo.
If you indulge the belief that Save % is the true personal statistic for a goalie (best estimate in any case) like I do, this fact is truly impressive. Particularly, because I feel that .920 is a mark of excellence in goalies, just as .900 is a nminimum standard to make an NHL living.
3) Finally, consider that Cristobal Huet has the best cumulative Save % of anyone not named Dan Ellis (only 21 GP), over the past 3 seasons (Top 10 goalies over 3 years of those that have outranked Huet at least once in Save %):
Dan Ellis
41 GA, 540 SA: .924
Cristobal Huet
259 GA, 3384 SA: .923
Nicklas Backstrom
150 GA, 1932 SA: .922
Roberto Luongo
479 GA, 5902 SA: .919
Tomas Vokoun
389 GA, 4777 SA: .919
Martin Brodeur
459 GA, 5505 SA: .917
Tim Thomas
368 GA, 4323 SA: .915
Mikka Kiprusoff
448 GA, 5496 SA: .915
Henrik Lundqvist
383 GA, 4496 SA: .915
Chris Mason
239 GA, 2802 SA: .915
JS Giguere
362 GA, 4228 SA: .914
Finally, it is interesting to consider that one knock on Huet is that his ability to win when things are on the line is questionable.
As we're keeping a better log this year of performances, both objective and subjective, I'd say that's just not true. He has been among the three stars as many times as anyone but Kovalev and Tobalev has picked him as outright player of the game 9 times in 51 opportunities. Furthermore, in games where he has faltered early, his ability to regain composure and "shut the door" so his teammates have a chance to come back has been impressive.
As for big games, we can look to the spring of 2006 as evidence that he has the ability to pull those off. His regular season heroics, where he eventually ended up posting the number one Save % in the league (.929) and taking the Habs into the playoffs all came in pressure games.
Furthermore, he went on to post an impressive .929 Save % again in the playoffs against the number two team and eventual Cup champions (Carolina), who also had the third best offense in the league to that point. Of course I remember the Williams goal that sealed the deal, but one could find similar evidence against any goalie who did not win the Cup in any given year (even Brodeur).
It's for that reason, I can look past the 82nd game of last season now, even though it has taken a while.
Basically, Cristobal has earned his redemption by reproving his worth this season. He has shown us that that Toronto debacle and those 5 losses in Feb 2007 were the anomaly, not his all-star selection, league leading Save % or regular season heroics in 2006. If I'm so bold, I would say that were it not for his injury in February last season, we would have made the playoffs, even with the scoring woes.
You can't pay too much top goaltending of this variety (not when the salary fits under the max salary anyway). And, as a bonus, Huet would be the perfect mentor for any young star goalie coming through, of which we have 2. If I'm Bob Gainey, I do make an effort to re-sign the French goaltender right away. And since Gainey has gone on record as saying there is no policy for not negotiating contracts in the season, I am sure that these discussions have already been broached. Whether Huet is pricing himself out of the Canadiens salary comfort zone is altogether another matter.
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