Why The Swiss Game Matters

It's incredible in this day and age, with all the hype surrounding this hockey tournament in Canada, that all the sites where one can follow this thing on the web (at least the ones immediately obvious to most) are so poor.

TSN, RDS and Sportsnet, who usually have decent web pages have been funneled into CTV's site, who I would kindly say have muffed the Olympic hockey portion of the site. The official site of the Games is best of the lot, but given the standard of websites in 2010 isn't exactly taking advantage of all the best new practices.

Among the issues that spring from this is the confusion over the format of the Olympic hockey tournament. While sites do present the standings, few present them in the most useful way.

You see this Olympics, the IIHF has tweaked the format of the tournament so that group play is essentially a team sorting mechanism. Each team will play 3 games against the pre-selected opponents in their groups to sort out the rankings of all teams from 1 to 12.

From these rankings, the top four teams get a bye to the quarterfinals and teams 5 to 12 (all of them, none are eliminated) will face off in 4 playoff games to fight for a quarterfinal berth.

Thanks to a difficult to find page at NHL.com (not an Olympic site) we know that the deciding factors are:

1) Group position
2) Points gained
3) Goal difference
4) Goals for
5) IIHF ranking (2009)

This means that all three group winners proceed to the QFs, no matter what. The 4th team in the QFs will be the top second place finisher. Thanks to OTW and OTL, this will probably be sorted via points.

Teams 5 and 6 will be the other two second place finishers; teams 7-9 will be the third ranked teams; and teams 10-12 will be Norway, Latvia and Germany (or, if you prefer, the three last placed teams).

I think that given the inevitability of this happening, it might be more useful for everyone if we display the standings from 1 to 12, so as to remove any illusion that anything else is important:

Team	Position	GP	W	OTW	OTL	L	Pts	GF	GA	Diff
USA	A1	2	2	0	0	0	6	9	2	+7
Russia	B1	2	1	0	1	0	4	9	4	+5
Finland	C1	1	1	0	0	0	3	5	1	+4
Canada	A2	2	1	1	0	0	5	11	2	+9
Czech Republic	B2	1	1	0	0	0	3	3	1	+2
Sweden	C2	1	1	0	0	0	3	2	0	+2
Slovakia	B3	2	0	1	0	1	2	3	4	-1
Switzerland	A3	2	0	0	1	1	1	3	6	-3
Germany	C3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	-2
Belarus	C4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	5	-4
Latvia	B4	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	8	-6
Norway	A4	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	14	-13

Why that OTW might hurt later

As Canadians bask in the glory of beating the Swiss team, it is perhaps a good idea to consider for minute what coming up short by a point means for the tournament.

As it goes, Canada is now guaranteed first or second in the group. Surely good news. And, if they beat the US, there's no doubt of a bye – also good news. But here are some scenarios:

Canada beats USA

If Canada beats the US in regulation, they'll be sitting pretty with 8 points. That will be enough to clear Russia. However, Czech, Finland and Sweden could all go clean in the group (and one probably will) meaning that Canada won't get the first seed.

You may not think this matters, but consider the semi-finals. if Sweden goes clean they should draw USA or Finland in the semis, barring upsets. Canada will be faced with the possibility of the Czech Republic or Russia. Not the better side of the draw really.

What's more, though they don't like the Swiss, Canada would be foolhardy not to be hoping to face Switzerland in the quarters should no upsets occur. This is because, though they are a top 8 team, the top 7 teams have a certain mystique about them that makes them surpass workmanlike Switzerland.

Canada in the two seed could draw Slovakia. this team used to be easy pickings, but thanks to Halak, they now have a credible goaltender. They also have Hossa and some other interesting forwards up front and the Norris trophy Chara at the back. They're not a joke. And teams that take them lightly (Russia, ahem) do so at their peril.


Canada loses to USA

Stranger things have happened. If this occurs, Canada will have 5 points. No offense to Germany and Belarus, but I think Finland and Sweden will be on 6, or more both. Group B will toss up at least one 5-point second place teams (Slovakia) and quite possibly a 6-point one as well as Group C.

Either way, Canada would likely miss the top second which they would have clinched by beating Switzerland and their goal difference. It would at least mean an extra game, extra chance of injury, etc.

5th or 6th means little difference in the playoff (Norway or Latvia), but Canada would again be in the #2/3 semi rather than getting a crack at the 4th place team to make a final.


Koivu understands

I know it's all just quotes, but Koivu seems to clearly understand what his team needs to do:

"Obviously, finishing first in your group is the first goal for every team - and trying to avoid that extra game before the quarters," said Koivu. "I think that's going to be a huge advantage - for those teams and for the top second-place team. I've never liked tournaments that are about goal differential - or if someone benefits from scoring two more goals against a weaker team."

Koivu is the type of player whose gamesmanship goes well beyond the rink, as he gets totally embroiled in what needs to be done. It should come as no surprise then that he threatens to overtake the Olympic assists lead and tie the record for ice hockey medals at the Olympics.

Others seem to take results as they come. This may be something they reflect upon later while the medal places are being decided:

"I didn't even try to understand it. I didn't get past the point where we cross over (in the quarter-finals). I just know we open(ed) against Switzerland." – Ryan Miller

I think Team Canada showed with their clumsy win yesterday that they are among the latter group – seeing what happens.

It's all well and good to stumble through to the medal round. it often works (see World Cup, Italy), but it's playing with fire in some ways. Especially for a team that's got a bit of a reputation for not doing well with the fire handling at these big tournaments.

League Table Gazing A Strange Fixation

As we settle down following round 12 of the goalie debate, the default is to look at the standings and decide what is on the horizon.

Last week, we were "out of the playoffs", teams had games in hand, there was little hope. This week, we're "in the playoffs", teams have played their extra games, things look up. Yet, the difference between last week and this was 2 wins and an OTL. Are you telling me the world has changed in 3 games?

The language of the standings

Can we please just inject a little bit of sanity to this daily discussion. Today Mike Boone tried to explain the connotations of every win-loss scenario that could occur this evening. In a bit of self-mockery, he once again called the game a 4-pointer. He's technically right. But then every game is a 4-pointer. If Florida loses every game after this one, then it's really only a two pointer for the Habs. That's because the playoffs don't begin tomorrow.

Since it is January, not April, I have some suggestions:

Not "in" or "out" of the playoffs

Can we not say the Habs are "in" or "out" every five minutes?

Let's clear something up. If the Habs lose tonight, they are not out of the playoffs. They are not in, if they win. All they do is increase their chances.

The standings are useful to remind inform us on wins that have happened, but they don't tell us much about the future. Just as they didn't tell us last week that St. Louis was a hotter opponent than the Devils.


Not every game has to define a season

A week ago, JT of The H Does Not... asked "What is this team playing for?". Today she's upping the drama for tonight's game by insinuating it will define a season. I know what she's getting at. We all talk about must wins, but let's try to learn from the lessons of a mere week ago: The season doesn't turn on a game.

Can we please relay the importance without looking for turning points as they happen, when nothing is turning, just continuing in the cycle of up and down.

This game means nothing more than next game or the game after that. All points count, but you only need to win half your games to make the playoffs. Losses are par for the course.


This year is not so special

"Oh, the playoffs have begun early this year." Actually, it's just the inane fretting that's begun early. Every season ends with a half dozen teams jostling for a couple of places. This season isn't so different. The big difference, so far as I can tell is that the West has dominated in interleague play and have brought about confusion as to what a good point total should be.


No one wins a tie break because they've played less games

There are established tie breaks, playing less games is not one of them. It would be more useful to discuss the real tie breaks, like season series, wins and goal differential. The Habs beat the Panthers, by the way, on each.


Playoff predictions

A fun website to keep an eye on, though not to worry too much about, at this time of year is Sports Club Stats. They use algorithms with goals scored and allowed, wins and losses and opponents to come up with a playoff probability. To give you an idea of how much sense this makes in January:

If you can find the Canadiens with the cursor, you'll see their past week has boosted their chances by 26% to make them the leading contender for 8th. The Rangers had the opposite week. To watch game-by-game at this point is a roller coaster ride. To make declarations based on a single game at this point makes little to no sense at all.

For your amusement, if the Canadiens do win tonight, the website says the Habs playoff chances will rise by about 8%. Down 8% if they lose. The Panthers see similar gains and losses. It's impressive, but guess what? Next game promises to have big implications too (maybe bigger), and the one after that, and the one after...

The Canadiens lowest probability of making the playoffs last season was about 83%. They made the playoffs, but on a tie break. The Hurricanes had a 21% chance of making the playoffs in January 2009, they played in the conference finals.


Frustrating as it may be, in the age of instant gratification, by all indications we'll probably have to wait for the games to be played before we can see who's in the playoffs, who holds the tie breaks, which games literally eliminate people from contention. The sooner we all realise that, the better.

Come On Habs Fans Plenty of reason to be positive

If you watched the games this weekend, you'd be feeling down enough. But the Montreal media, the blogosphere and frothing pessimists have taken this 50-game mark as a definitive opportunity to kick all optimists while they're down.

I have to concede that we do join in the fun. In my case, I tried to limit the sucker punch to the area of your cranium reserved for feelings of pity and/or NHL forwards incapable of, well, going forward. But in general I think we try to portray our general and misguided optimism that once led us to believe the Habs would score 5 goals in 20 minutes to keep the playoff series against the Canes alive and still leads us to believe that anything is possible in 2010.

On that note, I direct all the pessimists to read the latest doom and gloom churned out from Pat Hickey and Eyes on the Prize. I invite all left (optimists, I presume) to consider all the good stuff ahead:


1) We won't need 93 points this year

A lot of articles point to the wins the Canadiens will need to achieve their 2009 point total which saw them into the playoffs on a tie-break. Don't believe the hype. Because the whole East has done a tremendous impression of the Southeast division this year, the West has won 96 of 170 contests. That means there are less points to actually go around.

Because some games are East vs. East, there are a minimum number or points left to be spread around us and our rivals. By my count the minimum is 392 points (or about 26 points each), but that would mean no OTLs and losing all games to the West form here. The maximum is 788 points (or 52 each), which means winning all Western games and going to OT each and every time out in intra-conference games – just as nonsensical.

Consider this, though, if trends continue as they've been going then there are 537 points to go around all Eastern teams. That means about 36 points each. If the Canadiens steal points over and above 36 from the right teams (or if Western teams, top Eastern or bottom Eastern teams do) then we're in like Flynn.

So banish 93. I won't promise 86 points will do it, but it could well suffice. 18 wins from 32 games doesn't seem impossible. Neither does 15-11-6...


2) More interesting games

I'm not only referring to Habs games here – those are always interesting. But maybe you'll all join me in becoming the newest big fans of New Jersey, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Washington and every Western team playing the East.

At the beginning of the year, I couldn't care less about Sabres v. Panthers or Caps v. Isles. But now these games take on a new sheen. If the Canadiens had put more points in the bank, what would I worry about when Sportscentre fires up on off days?


3) Some GMs are ready to take the dive

In Montreal, it's unheard of. Tank a season? No chance. But as parity is shown to be for the mediocre, teams that see little chance of Stanley's Cup may look to the lottery ball instead. Teams like Tampa who need more young core, Florida who can't alienate anymore fans and Hurricanes who might finally tank it properly all could go for it. We play these teams. We can win these games if they let us.


4) Teams will start playing their back-ups

It goes hand in hand with the above, but winning teams will also join the ranks. When planning for long runs of games and expected playoff workloads, back-up goalies start to see the light of day. If you were choosing teams to send Yann Danis against, wouldn't league worst in shots for look good? Ah, our clever ruse...


5) More features on Latendresse, Koivu and Kovalev

At first it seemed like we may miss our old friends, but as the Habs slip while others flourish (more or less), we get constant updates on how our departed heroes are doing. It makes it seem like they never left.


6) You can enjoy the Olympic hockey for the hockey

Imagine if you can being a Pens fan. The Olympics are a nightmare. First of all, your country entrusted player selection to a crack team of GMs who haven't seen the happy side of 90 points in some time. Next, all your best players are going and playing for countries you've barely heard of, let alone can point to on a map (Canada, Russia) and risk injuring themselves in a pursuit you don't understand.

The Habs have no such conundrum. Firstly, many players played poorly enough thus far to ensure a lengthy beach volleyball tournament will be their only chance at injury in late February. Secondly, what's the difference? The Olympic medal will be the only award anyone of the players gets a chance to look at this season. No one, after Pat Hickey has confirmed our doom, need worry about a twisted ankle ruining a Cup run.


So you see there's plenty to keep your spirits up. A few are reasons to believe this mediocrity will be enough, some that the mediocrity will bring benefits and then the final consolations of the Olympic tournament.

It's not as bad as the naysayers say. Keep the chins up Habs fans. Go Habs. Go.

Does Halak Get The Easy Marks?

Let's dispel a myth shall we?

In what have become ever more numerous attempts to stir the pot with this goalie thing again (as if winning few games is too boring for the press to take), the publication of Price's really poor goal support has been coming to light.

As you know, I am trying to get to the bottom of what is going on there (no scientist jumps to mere coincidence without a few questions). Until then, I just wanted to address one of the things I think it isn't – Halak getting more than his fair share of easy starts.

To get to the bottom of it, I had a look at the records of each goalie vs. the teams they have played. To be fairer than most analysts, I have omitted the games in question as contribution to the total. So, the Philadelphia Flyers who are a 19-19-3 team with the game against us, are actually a 19-18-3 (or above 0.500 in the standings team) here.

Games vs. teams above 0.500 in the standings

	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	W%	Real W%
Canadiens	32	14	16	2	30	0.469	0.438
Price	19	7	10	2	16	0.421	0.368
Halak	13	7	6	0	14	0.538	0.538

Games vs. teams below 0.500 in the standings

	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	W%	Real W%
Canadiens	12	7	4	1	15	0.625	0.583
Price	8	3	4	1	7	0.438	0.375
Halak	4	4	0	0	8	1.000	1.000

Now, from looking at that, it seems that Price got more than his share of games against teams below 0.500 based on his pro-rated share of all starts. His 61% share of all starts should have meant he started 7 games against the bottom feeders. he started 8. Halak is in fact missing a start if you go by this theory.

But hang on, we all know the standings are a complete mess. Teams above 0.500 in the standings like the Islanders by this method are well below once you equate their OTLs with losses. So once again, this time with real wins and losses:

Games vs. teams above 0.500 in real terms

	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	W%	Real W%
Canadiens	22	6	15	1	13	0.295	0.273
Price	15	5	9	1	11	0.367	0.333
Halak	7	1	6	0	2	0.143	0.143

Games vs. teams below 0.500 in real terms

	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	W%	Real W%
Canadiens	22	15	5	2	32	0.727	0.682
Price	12	5	5	2	12	0.500	0.417
Halak	10	10	0	0	20	1.000	1.000

In this case, it seems that Halak has had an extra start or two handed to him. His 17 from 44 would suggest he deserved 8 or 9 starts, and he had 10. Price, missed out on 1 or 2 then. However, if you were the coach of the 10-0-0 goalie when facing the real dregs, would you put in the 5-5-2 guy just to boost his record? I thought so. Plus, Carey needed the rest in some cases, which probably contributed to his much more combative efforts against top teams than Halak.

There might be some reason beyond play on the ice, GAA and save percentage that explains the discrepancy in Canadiens goaltenders' wins, but I don't think that Halak getting all the plum assignments has that much to do with it after looking at this, do you?

Rewind To 23 Cups: Blogger Finds OT Too Random

After much study, "Behind The Flames" blogger and fan of the downtrodden has decided that overtime cannot be counted upon to determine the result of games.

In an analysis began with the de novo hypothesis: The Leafs can't be worse than the Canadiens, he managed to get to the bottom of all the problems with the league scoring system and put the Habs right back where they deserve to be.


(As of Monday, December 21)

Team	GP	W	L	T	BWL	W%	GD	PW%
Ottawa	35	13	13	9	5-4	0.500	-2	0.490
Atlanta	34	13	13	8	5-3	0.500	+6	0.529
Boston	34	10	11	13	6-7	0.471	+2	0.512
NYR	35	14	16	5	2-3	0.471		0.479
Toronto	36	12	16	8	1-7	0.444	-17	0.424
Tampa Bay	35	9	14	12	3-9	0.426	-14	0.424
Philadelphia	34	12	17	5	3-2	0.426	-6	0.468
Florida	37	9	15	13	6-7	0.419	-13	0.440
NYI	36	8	16	12	5-7	0.389	-26	0.367
Montreal	37	8	18	11	8-3	0.365	-16	0.415
Carolina	35	6	20	9	3-6	0.300	-37	0.327

As you can see his analysis cunningly removes all wins, losses and goals scored in OT. Since he doesn't like overtime anymore than he likes the shootout, he groups all extra time results in the same way, regardless of whether the winning goal happened in open play or on the shootout.

Montreal has been the lucky recipient of 5 more wins than losses, which is 4 more than expected based on their real-time results (where nothing strange ever happens like it does in overtime). Toronto on the other hand has been so unfortunate as to lose 7 of their 8 games, which is a travesty based on the outstanding regulation play record.


Work extended into the past

His worked has inspired one of his followers to extend this excellent work well into the past. Leaf Ericson has also seen the light regarding the unfairness of overtime and has used the bulk of his internet-based research to submit a petition to the league to set the records straight.

Of particular interest to Canadiens fans is his impending civil suit to have the Hockey Hall of Fame recognise the true Stanley Cup final of 1993.

Those who wrongly uphold OT results as real wins will probably remember something about a Canadiens Cup win in 1993. But, in the new, more sanitary NHL, without Bettman scoring, that final could and would have never happened.

You see, the Canadiens in those playoffs only actually won 6 regulation games in those playoffs, with 3 regulation losses, in 20 games. Anyone with half a brain will know that means paltry 0.575 hockey.

The actual playoff winners, the LA Kings played to a stunning 11 regulation wins, with 7 losses, in 24 games, which of course is 0.583 hockey.

Strangely, he also includes a Leafs Cup – the Leafs put up more points than the Canadiens 23 points with 24 of their own – as part of the thesis (something about a high stick that happened before their goalie let in a goal and then lost another game). But as there is nothing but purity of a statistical heart behind the findings, we'll take his word for it.


Final sage words

In closing, Behind the Flames commented on the solid work of Leaf Ericson with reference his smashing success at proving the hypothesis he so wanted to prove.

"One thing is clear", he states, "the Maple Leafs are and always have been better than the Canadiens. No fluke results, or overtime scoring should ever distort that fact."

Amazing what you can prove with some determination.

The New (My) NHL: Montreal Canadiens November 19-25

[Montreal Canadiens Week takes a look at the week that was and the week ahead from a subjective standpoint, and is supplemented by the objective analysis following every fifth game]

The week that was

Well guys, back to earth, eh?

Not quite yet, but close.

What I think we just saw was a week that will become more and more common as the salary cap era goes on. We saw the 14th place team go on a winning tear and the first place team lose 3 in a row. Our own 3rd (or 4th if you believe in giving free positions to divisions) place team suffered a bit too.

From last week, where there was starting to be some separation in the standings, we have now arrived at a situation where there is 8 points between 2nd and 14th. In Toronto they are flipping out because they are in 14th. From another point of view, they are a team that was going to be fighting for the playoffs, one point out of a spot (24 games in...).


This new parity amongst the teams in the conference also has implications for game preparation, road trip preparation and fatigue levels over the season. If every game is now a battle, is it possible to be in a position to win each one?

Well, I think we saw the answer and it is NO.


But the answer is also that sometimes the other team simply outplays you. They are afterall, trying to. The hardest thing to admit as a sports fan is that your team is inferior to another, or even was inferior that day or night. In Montreal, the media tends to ignore how the other team played and focus entirely on the Canadiens. Win, and the Canadiens played well. lose and they played poorly. On rare occasions, the media sometimes concedes the other team's goalie played well, but never that the other team did.

If the Habs actually looked at their worst in terms a of putting themselves in positions to win, they also benefited from an Islanders team that couldn't get over a hangover of their own. In fact, it helps me to think of games from the opponents' perspective for every game.

For example, we beat the Bruins 7-1. Both sets of fans will look at the game from their own point of view

Habs fan: The Canadiens played an amazing and complete game.

Bruins fan: The Bruins were lazy, lost battles and conceded too many penalties.

In reality, the answer probably lies somewhere in between. For usually, the team that plays better wins and the team that looks lazy loses. But, in the way that different Bruins can make Mike Komisarek look both like a giant or a shortie, opponents energy, desperation, skill and luck shape the way we see our own team.

As such, here's my view on the past week: Montreal played 4 quite similar games. Ottawa are a better team than us, and we need a special effort to beat them. The Islanders dogged their game and made us look good. And, the Sabres played some inspired hockey – probably emerging from some very stern speeches reminding them they went from top to bottom in 6 months time.

I also believe that there are 7 cities each week that go through this same down period, just like there are 7 who go through the up. Montreal may be unique in the number of passionate fans, but is hardly alone in their one-eyed view on home teams.

So, after 2 losses (or 3 in 4, whichever you think looks worse) is there need to panic? NO

The introspective approach to game evaluations is fine in the media, since it has no impact whatsoever on how the team will perform, practice or approach the next game. One can only hope the coaching staff and players can step back and admit their inferiority on a given night. With a realistic evalution, realistic solutions can emerge. Maybe the Koivu/Higgins/Ryder line plays badly against Buffalo, but could still function against Toronto. Maybe Huet doesn't like facing Crosby, but relishes Jagr shots.

Thankfully, I think we have the staff to produce rational and realistic solutions, and to ignore the panic that sets in every 2 games.


On ignoring 20 earlier games in an effort to get your quote in the paper (Guy Lafleur):

"En mon livre, on n'a pas de premiere trio a Montreal. On a quatre quatriemes trios"

"In my opinion we don't have a number one line in Montreal. We have four fourth lines."

Coming off a week that sent the media into a tailspin and bandwagon fans home packing...

... what might Rejean Houle do?

Trade Ryan McDonagh for a winger from out west.




... what might Sam Pollock do?

Talk to Paul Maurice's agent about possible interest in a return to AHL coaching down the road in Hamilton (in the eventuality...).



The week upcoming

If the last week saw the Canadiens get reabsorbed by the front of the peloton, then these next 6 must return at least 3 points for hope of breaking free again next month. A realistic evaluation, assuming no sulks infect the team as a whole, makes the task doable.

Tuesday night: Toronto Maple Leafs at the Air Canada Centre.

This game is critical. A win allows the team some breathing space both in the standings and from the media. Toronto is not going to be a pushover by any means, they will be fighting for their coach by all accounts. If the Canadiens can find a way to play and impose their own style on these Leafs, then I think it comes up W. After two lessons in how to impose a style, hopefully they learned a thing or two.

Leafs to watch: Mats Sundin and John Ferguson Junior – Sundin is having a great season (which recently doesn't seem to be able to go hand in hand with wins for the Leafs), JFJ will get some air time on the TV and should provide some decent expressions (from relief to despair depending on how things go).


Friday night: New Jersey Devils at the brand new .

Great. The Devils. Just when they decided not to be the worst team in the Atlantic. There are points to be had here, though. As we saw with the Islanders and Flyers, the Atlantic division is not the Northeast. Not by any stretch of the imagination. Our little vacation from the top right corner of the league gives us a good chance to remind the Devils of that.

One commenter on the site got a bit animated when I prognosticated on the Devils games earlier in the year. I rather conservatively said split. He did not agree. I think this game will give us the answer.

Devils to watch: Patrick Elias and John Madden – Elias is underperforming as much as anyone and has been known to enjoy playing the Habs, Madden will be on the ice to test Kovalev et al's commitment to defense.

Saturday night: Nashville Predators at the Bell Centre.

In my opinion, this is the difficult game this week. Nashville have been underrated this year. I did it, everyone did. While they lost Timonen and Kariya, they managed to keep together a very young and effective group of defensemen, and their forwards are taking "no name" effectiveness to new heights. Their November has been great and they'll be coming off a game against an Ottawa team with renewed vigour.

Predators to watch: Radek Bonk and Martin Erat – Bonk has 9 goals already! (10 less than in 2 seasons with the Canadiens) and Erat is the player we thought Bulis could be and would be the leading scorer on the current Canadiens.



Overheard on the Habswagon

Fan 1: What's that stuff you see rolling by in cowboy films?

Fan 1: Oh, that's called tumbleweed.

Fan 1: Right.

(If a foil cup falls over after two consecutive Habs losses, does it make a sound?)

The visitors' section: Buffalo Sabres

Part of blogging is getting to debate and share with your readers and fellow bloggers. Habs bloggers until now, but I thought it was time to reach out to those blogging our rivals.

Sometimes we focus on our own team so much that we forget there are 14 other teams vying for the 8 playoff spots we are (well 7 if Ottawa doesn't slow down and give everyone else a chance). Sometimes that means we lose to a team that's better than we are. Sometimes we lose to a team who wants to win more than we do.

The Buffalo Sabres have had a couple of super seasons and have stumbled thus far. Although i can't say I am completely shocked about their predicament. The city of Buffalo (and Ontario commuters) sure are.


Here's a summary of what David at Die by the Blade had to say about his Sabres so far this year:

Recent form
The Buffalo Sabres have been very inconsistent this season, searching for an identity after losing Chris Drury and Daniel Briere. At times they look like the team we all saw last year, but at other times they seem to struggle. The Sabres are coming off of a 4-2 loss to the Florida Panthers, in which they allowed the Panthers to score three times in five minutes.

The players
The team is led by Derek Roy, Brian Campbell and Tim Connolly (who is returning from a season long head injury). Ryan Miller is still the backbone of the team, although he has not been as consistent as in years past.

The Sabres have also been soft in their own zone through the first 11 games and have relied on minor league defensemen due to injuries to Jaro Spacek, Dmitri Kalinin and newly signed Nolan Pratt.


I agree with David about the consistency issue. But that, as we know, is the bane of every team that doesn't collect 116 points. Welcome back to the pack (at least for a month or two) Sabres fans. As I said in my weekly review, I think we are well matched with Buffalo, and we each play about the same way the others would like to. I think on current form and hopefully a little desperation born out of a Leafs loss, this game should reflect the standings and we should win. And I stand by Spacek and Afinogenov as my Sabres to keep your eyes on.

I think our guest might have the same opinion of his own team's circumstances if you asked. But even if we're being nice to other bloggers - this is a Habs blog afterall.

Playoffs?

Remember the days when making the playoffs meant beating Hartford or Quebec? Those were the days. We could build for the playoffs, concentrate on establishing chemistry and playing Boston. Playoff streaks were long, round the whole league. We had one, Boston, even St. Louis who continued their's well into the expension age.

Well things have changed a lot. More teams, restrictions on budget, Europeans. The playoffs are becoming a little bit difficult to make. We do all remember missing the last time...

In some ways, though, making the playoffs has not become that much harder. Some teams still stagnate for years (a la Quebec) and those in the hunt need merely hold their concentration through January and February to get it done. Beat all the bottom feeders and you stand a great chance come April. Lose a few to Washington, Florida and the crew and you put yourselves in a precarious situation.

So, now that the free agent frenzy is over (if not all the signings). How do the Habs chances of making the playoffs look. Consider the teams in the East that got better and worse, and by how much.

1) Improved
New York Rangers – Replaced Nylander with Gomez in what could go either way depending on the Jagr chemistry, but did also add a good (and horrendously overpaid) Chris Drury. They were a playoff team, they should stay one.

Philadelphia Flyers – Swapped Forsberg for Briere (I see no great improvement). Added Timonen, but lost Pitkanen (slight improvement if any). Added Hartnell, Lupul and Upshall which should translate into some wins. Added Biron to replace Esche (slight improvement). They also added Jason Smith for another slight boost. When you add it all together it's improvement, but this is still the team that lost the East last year, whose youngsters are so overrated just for being born in Canada it boggles the mind. They should fight for a playoff spot. If they make it, I don't think they will be the fourth or fifth team from this division in, so someone will go home disappointed (NJ?)

Pittsburgh Penguins – Added without really lossing any key parts. Sydor is a great move. Sykora probably isn't, but hey. Crosby will carry them further this year than last.

Toronto Maple Leafs
Good signing in Blake. Well, at least very fiscally responsible. He should fit in well there too. Taking chances on Bell and Toskala should pay off in one way or another at the cost of no prospects from 2007. They are improved, but I thought they overachieved last year, with quite an incredible finish. With the improvement, they should be able to cruise into 7, 8, 9, 10 fight this yea, instead of giving it all for 9th.

Washington Capitals – Adding Kozlov and Nylander could look like the best forward upgrade by the end of the year, especially as nothing major was subtracted. but look where they started! Poti should only add to the confusion at the back. Improved up front, but a non-existent defense means they miss the playoffs again, I think.

2) Worse

New York Islanders – Icing a completely different team, made up entirely of cast offs. I like Ted Nolan as a coach, but even he will have trouble here. Comrie on line 1? Heaven help them. Hanging on to a playoff spot looks all but impossible this year.

Buffalo Sabres – Losing both top centres and Zubrus, and adding Thibault hurt this team. Can't believe Teppo Numminen is still in the NHL, it certainly says a lot about the competitiveness of this team's defense prospects. Should be worse, but they did win the East last year. They kept their two best forwards Vanek and Afinogenov. They will probably eke out a spot.

Ottawa Senators – As of this article, they have only lost players, not gained. That being said, I don't think last year was the end of the line for this team. That first line is the best in the league on most nights. Their defense is the envy of at least 25 teams and their goalie is pretty good. They're worse yes, but should still challenge for the East crown.

New Jersey Devils – Losing Rafalski and Gomez to replace them with Zubrus and Rachunek... ouch. If they get Souray, they could get even worse. Despite all this they still have Brodeur who wins games on his own and Elias who can be the best LW in the league when he wants to (he's already made overpaid free agents out of Gomez and Sykora, who's next? not Zubrus surely...). I think they'll finally be fighting for a spot this year after ten years of cruising. I wouldn't be surprised if they make it, but I wouldn't be shocked if they missed either.

Atlanta Thrashers – Getting whipped in the first round of the playoffs showed this team up for the pretenders that they are. No additions when they probably needed a few on top of that blow to confidence means they got worse. I don't think they have a chance at all, unless Lehtonen has a groin transplant and stops hanging out with Philly's prospects Carter and Richards at the "Could we be any more overrated?" parties through the winter months.


Obviously the other teams moved up or down as well, but I don't think their moves pushed them too far in one direction or the other. I do think Carolina will return to form and show last year was an aberration. And let's not forget Vokoun is no Luongo...

So, how does it all play out then:

Ottawa
Pittsburgh
Carolina
New York Rangers
Tampa Bay
Buffalo
Montreal
New Jersey
Toronto
Philadelphia
Washington
Boston
Atlanta
Florida
New York Islanders

I can't believe my own eyes, but someone has to miss afterall, and someone even has to come last, even if they sign lots of free agents (eh, Philly?)

So Habs fans, we're in for a fight again. I put us in (of course), but those teams that we have to beat don't look like such slouches anymore. Maybe we'll get lucky and Eric Staal will play really poorly again...