If you watched the games this weekend, you'd be feeling down enough. But the Montreal media, the blogosphere and frothing pessimists have taken this 50-game mark as a definitive opportunity to kick all optimists while they're down.
I have to concede that we do join in the fun. In my case, I tried to limit the sucker punch to the area of your cranium reserved for feelings of pity and/or NHL forwards incapable of, well, going forward. But in general I think we try to portray our general and misguided optimism that once led us to believe the Habs would score 5 goals in 20 minutes to keep the playoff series against the Canes alive and still leads us to believe that anything is possible in 2010.
On that note, I direct all the pessimists to read the latest doom and gloom churned out from Pat Hickey and Eyes on the Prize. I invite all left (optimists, I presume) to consider all the good stuff ahead:
1) We won't need 93 points this year
A lot of articles point to the wins the Canadiens will need to achieve their 2009 point total which saw them into the playoffs on a tie-break. Don't believe the hype. Because the whole East has done a tremendous impression of the Southeast division this year, the West has won 96 of 170 contests. That means there are less points to actually go around.
Because some games are East vs. East, there are a minimum number or points left to be spread around us and our rivals. By my count the minimum is 392 points (or about 26 points each), but that would mean no OTLs and losing all games to the West form here. The maximum is 788 points (or 52 each), which means winning all Western games and going to OT each and every time out in intra-conference games – just as nonsensical.
Consider this, though, if trends continue as they've been going then there are 537 points to go around all Eastern teams. That means about 36 points each. If the Canadiens steal points over and above 36 from the right teams (or if Western teams, top Eastern or bottom Eastern teams do) then we're in like Flynn.
So banish 93. I won't promise 86 points will do it, but it could well suffice. 18 wins from 32 games doesn't seem impossible. Neither does 15-11-6...
2) More interesting games
I'm not only referring to Habs games here – those are always interesting. But maybe you'll all join me in becoming the newest big fans of New Jersey, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Washington and every Western team playing the East.
At the beginning of the year, I couldn't care less about Sabres v. Panthers or Caps v. Isles. But now these games take on a new sheen. If the Canadiens had put more points in the bank, what would I worry about when Sportscentre fires up on off days?
3) Some GMs are ready to take the dive
In Montreal, it's unheard of. Tank a season? No chance. But as parity is shown to be for the mediocre, teams that see little chance of Stanley's Cup may look to the lottery ball instead. Teams like Tampa who need more young core, Florida who can't alienate anymore fans and Hurricanes who might finally tank it properly all could go for it. We play these teams. We can win these games if they let us.
4) Teams will start playing their back-ups
It goes hand in hand with the above, but winning teams will also join the ranks. When planning for long runs of games and expected playoff workloads, back-up goalies start to see the light of day. If you were choosing teams to send Yann Danis against, wouldn't league worst in shots for look good? Ah, our clever ruse...
5) More features on Latendresse, Koivu and Kovalev
At first it seemed like we may miss our old friends, but as the Habs slip while others flourish (more or less), we get constant updates on how our departed heroes are doing. It makes it seem like they never left.
6) You can enjoy the Olympic hockey for the hockey
Imagine if you can being a Pens fan. The Olympics are a nightmare. First of all, your country entrusted player selection to a crack team of GMs who haven't seen the happy side of 90 points in some time. Next, all your best players are going and playing for countries you've barely heard of, let alone can point to on a map (Canada, Russia) and risk injuring themselves in a pursuit you don't understand.
The Habs have no such conundrum. Firstly, many players played poorly enough thus far to ensure a lengthy beach volleyball tournament will be their only chance at injury in late February. Secondly, what's the difference? The Olympic medal will be the only award anyone of the players gets a chance to look at this season. No one, after Pat Hickey has confirmed our doom, need worry about a twisted ankle ruining a Cup run.
So you see there's plenty to keep your spirits up. A few are reasons to believe this mediocrity will be enough, some that the mediocrity will bring benefits and then the final consolations of the Olympic tournament.
It's not as bad as the naysayers say. Keep the chins up Habs fans. Go Habs. Go.
Showing posts with label 92 points. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 92 points. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Canadiens Night Off Playoff Musings
Thank you, Maxim Afinogenov...
During this whole losing streak, the Canadiens have done more to solidify their playoff standing by watching rivals' games on TV than by gaining points themselves.
Two important things seemed to have happened:
1) The Ottawa Senators got delusional
2) Teams 4-7 (directly ahead of us) became impossible to beat
As a result, teams 9 and 10 (those we are most concerned with) have found livelier opponents than they may have been expecting and have lost a fair number of games the past fortnight.
Delusions of grandeur
Both the Ottawa senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs have turned around their seasons recently. Strangely, February 7th was a turning point for both teams. Going into games that evening, Ottawa had 42 points after 50 games and Toronto was slightly better with 45 points after 52 contests.
Toronto have played well of late (despite shipping most of the players we might have called their best at the deadline). They have gone from favourite to land a top 5 pick to favourite to continue their painful rebuilding effort with a 12th overall choice with a 13-5-4 record over their last 22. They might have been a factor for the Canadiens, except that they have only hurt us – beating us once and losing at every opportunity to Buffalo and Florida.
Ottawa on the other hand have been kind in every way. They have trounced Buffalo in the 4 past meetings allowing them only a single point. And they have beaten every other playoff rival at least once. Their one slip was not letting us beat them twice in our 2 games. Since February 7th, Ottawa are a gaudy 15-6-2.
The difference they have made to the playoff is clear; but while Toronto seem to largely have done all they have done by accident, Ottawa has been deliberately targeting a playoff berth. Fair play to them, it says a lot about their sportsmanship and faith in themselves. However, it does not say much about their grasp of simple arithmetic or indeed of probabilities.
You see, on February 7th, when their hope grew into delusion, Ottawa would have needed to amass 50 points from their remaining 32 games to make the modest and generous playoff cutoff of 92 points. To do that they would have needed a record of 25-7-0 (or if they like to lose in OT something like 23-5-4). Perhaps not impossible for the San Jose Sharks, but the Ottawa Senators were clipping at less than a point pr game to that stage. Not only that, but in order to make the playoffs with such a low point total they would have to also wish for some monumental collapses from all the right teams.
Well, Ottawa got their collapses from Florida and Montreal, but despite this and their great play, they would need to win all their remaining games to make 92 points now. The painful part of the delusional ways is that they are now firmly planted in the middle with a shred of playoff hope and the thinnest hope of participation in that draft lottery.
Still, thanks Ottawa, you sure have helped your neighbours down the 417 a whole bunch by repetitively kicking the Sabres...
The Atlantic 3 and Carolina
The Flyers are 6-4-0 in their last 10 and and 12-6-1 in their last 19.
The Penguins are 7-1-2 in their last 10 and 11-1-2 in their last 14.
The Rangers are 7-3-0 in the last 10 and 8-3-0 in their last 11.
And, the Hurricanes are 7-1-2 in their last 10 and 9-1-2 in their last 12.
All this has meant the Habs have been distanced from their former homes at 4th and 5th, but in winning so thoroughly, these teams have been keeping precious points away from teams that could encroach on 8th. Buffalo has gone 1-5-1 against these teams and Florida has gone 1-1-2. Critically, Buffalo has kept Florida in check also (else they might have felt good about their 1-1-2) by beating them twice themselves in regulation.
Last night
Last night was a perfect example of how scoreboard watching can go well. Buffalo, as I mentioned, beat Florida and Carolina beat Ottawa.
The implications of the two games both played in the Habs favour. For one thing, Ottawa is out, all but mathematically. They received the blow late from Carolina, but only after all their hard work in crushing Buffalo for the past two months. The other game keeps the battle for ninth hot, but gives the Canadiens room for maneuver. With a game in hand on Florida, 2 points lead and the tie-break, the Habs are in good shape. If the Habs win 7 of 9, there is nothing that can keep them out of the playoffs. In order to beat us out, Buffalo has to go 2-0-1 better than we do and Florida must get at least 3 more points than us in 1 less game.
There's still work to do, obviously, and the Canadiens must climb over 90 points by a decent margin. There's no room for sub-500 stuff here. But if we have a modest 5-4-0 run, Florida will have to be incredible (6-1-1), Buffalo too (7-2-1), and Toronto and Ottawa will be outside looking in.
I don't think it's a stretch to say that the past two days have been two of the brighter ones in 2009 for the Canadiens.
To 7 wins! Go Habs Go!
During this whole losing streak, the Canadiens have done more to solidify their playoff standing by watching rivals' games on TV than by gaining points themselves.
Two important things seemed to have happened:
1) The Ottawa Senators got delusional
2) Teams 4-7 (directly ahead of us) became impossible to beat
As a result, teams 9 and 10 (those we are most concerned with) have found livelier opponents than they may have been expecting and have lost a fair number of games the past fortnight.
Delusions of grandeur
Both the Ottawa senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs have turned around their seasons recently. Strangely, February 7th was a turning point for both teams. Going into games that evening, Ottawa had 42 points after 50 games and Toronto was slightly better with 45 points after 52 contests.
Toronto have played well of late (despite shipping most of the players we might have called their best at the deadline). They have gone from favourite to land a top 5 pick to favourite to continue their painful rebuilding effort with a 12th overall choice with a 13-5-4 record over their last 22. They might have been a factor for the Canadiens, except that they have only hurt us – beating us once and losing at every opportunity to Buffalo and Florida.
Ottawa on the other hand have been kind in every way. They have trounced Buffalo in the 4 past meetings allowing them only a single point. And they have beaten every other playoff rival at least once. Their one slip was not letting us beat them twice in our 2 games. Since February 7th, Ottawa are a gaudy 15-6-2.
The difference they have made to the playoff is clear; but while Toronto seem to largely have done all they have done by accident, Ottawa has been deliberately targeting a playoff berth. Fair play to them, it says a lot about their sportsmanship and faith in themselves. However, it does not say much about their grasp of simple arithmetic or indeed of probabilities.
You see, on February 7th, when their hope grew into delusion, Ottawa would have needed to amass 50 points from their remaining 32 games to make the modest and generous playoff cutoff of 92 points. To do that they would have needed a record of 25-7-0 (or if they like to lose in OT something like 23-5-4). Perhaps not impossible for the San Jose Sharks, but the Ottawa Senators were clipping at less than a point pr game to that stage. Not only that, but in order to make the playoffs with such a low point total they would have to also wish for some monumental collapses from all the right teams.
Well, Ottawa got their collapses from Florida and Montreal, but despite this and their great play, they would need to win all their remaining games to make 92 points now. The painful part of the delusional ways is that they are now firmly planted in the middle with a shred of playoff hope and the thinnest hope of participation in that draft lottery.
Still, thanks Ottawa, you sure have helped your neighbours down the 417 a whole bunch by repetitively kicking the Sabres...
The Atlantic 3 and Carolina
The Flyers are 6-4-0 in their last 10 and and 12-6-1 in their last 19.
The Penguins are 7-1-2 in their last 10 and 11-1-2 in their last 14.
The Rangers are 7-3-0 in the last 10 and 8-3-0 in their last 11.
And, the Hurricanes are 7-1-2 in their last 10 and 9-1-2 in their last 12.
All this has meant the Habs have been distanced from their former homes at 4th and 5th, but in winning so thoroughly, these teams have been keeping precious points away from teams that could encroach on 8th. Buffalo has gone 1-5-1 against these teams and Florida has gone 1-1-2. Critically, Buffalo has kept Florida in check also (else they might have felt good about their 1-1-2) by beating them twice themselves in regulation.
Last night
Last night was a perfect example of how scoreboard watching can go well. Buffalo, as I mentioned, beat Florida and Carolina beat Ottawa.
The implications of the two games both played in the Habs favour. For one thing, Ottawa is out, all but mathematically. They received the blow late from Carolina, but only after all their hard work in crushing Buffalo for the past two months. The other game keeps the battle for ninth hot, but gives the Canadiens room for maneuver. With a game in hand on Florida, 2 points lead and the tie-break, the Habs are in good shape. If the Habs win 7 of 9, there is nothing that can keep them out of the playoffs. In order to beat us out, Buffalo has to go 2-0-1 better than we do and Florida must get at least 3 more points than us in 1 less game.
There's still work to do, obviously, and the Canadiens must climb over 90 points by a decent margin. There's no room for sub-500 stuff here. But if we have a modest 5-4-0 run, Florida will have to be incredible (6-1-1), Buffalo too (7-2-1), and Toronto and Ottawa will be outside looking in.
I don't think it's a stretch to say that the past two days have been two of the brighter ones in 2009 for the Canadiens.
To 7 wins! Go Habs Go!
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