If you watched the games this weekend, you'd be feeling down enough. But the Montreal media, the blogosphere and frothing pessimists have taken this 50-game mark as a definitive opportunity to kick all optimists while they're down.
I have to concede that we do join in the fun. In my case, I tried to limit the sucker punch to the area of your cranium reserved for feelings of pity and/or NHL forwards incapable of, well, going forward. But in general I think we try to portray our general and misguided optimism that once led us to believe the Habs would score 5 goals in 20 minutes to keep the playoff series against the Canes alive and still leads us to believe that anything is possible in 2010.
On that note, I direct all the pessimists to read the latest doom and gloom churned out from Pat Hickey and Eyes on the Prize. I invite all left (optimists, I presume) to consider all the good stuff ahead:
1) We won't need 93 points this year
A lot of articles point to the wins the Canadiens will need to achieve their 2009 point total which saw them into the playoffs on a tie-break. Don't believe the hype. Because the whole East has done a tremendous impression of the Southeast division this year, the West has won 96 of 170 contests. That means there are less points to actually go around.
Because some games are East vs. East, there are a minimum number or points left to be spread around us and our rivals. By my count the minimum is 392 points (or about 26 points each), but that would mean no OTLs and losing all games to the West form here. The maximum is 788 points (or 52 each), which means winning all Western games and going to OT each and every time out in intra-conference games – just as nonsensical.
Consider this, though, if trends continue as they've been going then there are 537 points to go around all Eastern teams. That means about 36 points each. If the Canadiens steal points over and above 36 from the right teams (or if Western teams, top Eastern or bottom Eastern teams do) then we're in like Flynn.
So banish 93. I won't promise 86 points will do it, but it could well suffice. 18 wins from 32 games doesn't seem impossible. Neither does 15-11-6...
2) More interesting games
I'm not only referring to Habs games here – those are always interesting. But maybe you'll all join me in becoming the newest big fans of New Jersey, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Washington and every Western team playing the East.
At the beginning of the year, I couldn't care less about Sabres v. Panthers or Caps v. Isles. But now these games take on a new sheen. If the Canadiens had put more points in the bank, what would I worry about when Sportscentre fires up on off days?
3) Some GMs are ready to take the dive
In Montreal, it's unheard of. Tank a season? No chance. But as parity is shown to be for the mediocre, teams that see little chance of Stanley's Cup may look to the lottery ball instead. Teams like Tampa who need more young core, Florida who can't alienate anymore fans and Hurricanes who might finally tank it properly all could go for it. We play these teams. We can win these games if they let us.
4) Teams will start playing their back-ups
It goes hand in hand with the above, but winning teams will also join the ranks. When planning for long runs of games and expected playoff workloads, back-up goalies start to see the light of day. If you were choosing teams to send Yann Danis against, wouldn't league worst in shots for look good? Ah, our clever ruse...
5) More features on Latendresse, Koivu and Kovalev
At first it seemed like we may miss our old friends, but as the Habs slip while others flourish (more or less), we get constant updates on how our departed heroes are doing. It makes it seem like they never left.
6) You can enjoy the Olympic hockey for the hockey
Imagine if you can being a Pens fan. The Olympics are a nightmare. First of all, your country entrusted player selection to a crack team of GMs who haven't seen the happy side of 90 points in some time. Next, all your best players are going and playing for countries you've barely heard of, let alone can point to on a map (Canada, Russia) and risk injuring themselves in a pursuit you don't understand.
The Habs have no such conundrum. Firstly, many players played poorly enough thus far to ensure a lengthy beach volleyball tournament will be their only chance at injury in late February. Secondly, what's the difference? The Olympic medal will be the only award anyone of the players gets a chance to look at this season. No one, after Pat Hickey has confirmed our doom, need worry about a twisted ankle ruining a Cup run.
So you see there's plenty to keep your spirits up. A few are reasons to believe this mediocrity will be enough, some that the mediocrity will bring benefits and then the final consolations of the Olympic tournament.
It's not as bad as the naysayers say. Keep the chins up Habs fans. Go Habs. Go.
Showing posts with label East. Show all posts
Showing posts with label East. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Interesting Games To Come
Eastern Playoff Match-ups In The Balance
The Candiens snuck in the back door of the playoffs, but only after storming right up to the house a week ago. And they'll now be starting the postseason as the coldest and least sexy option for pundits.
Out two potential opponents are reasonably hot after having cooled spells of their own pass behind them. New Jersay, also cold, has mystique, experience and the best goalie of time on their side and the three teams from 4 to 6 in the conference are the hottest of them all.
One silver lining for the Canadiens in this whole race is that they won't be facing any of those three, though perhaps they might relish playing one of the Pennsylvania two based on record and goaltenders. They, of course, can't play the Devils no matter how much the Devils would like an elixir for their recent levelling off. It's down the Boston or Washington.
The way the papers have been writing it, you'd think the choice were up to us fans. Of course, it isn't; and thanks to the Canadiens recent disdain for winning, the choice has nothing to do with them either. No, because the New York Rangers sorted their own fate by beating the Flyers, the Canadiens position is up to the Rangers now.
That on its own would offer little to no intrigue at all. What does spice it up, however, is the log jam from 4th to 6th. One of those teams will be starting on home ice, one of them will play the Devils (is that a good or bad thing at this point?) and two will play each other. And, due to the way the last games fell, the last game for each team will be matchups between the bottom six seeds in the conference.
The reason I feel these two days (The Flyers and Rangers ply tomorrow) could get a bit interesting is because this is the one time of year that teams feel justified and able to throw a game for their own gain. Last season, the Penguins properly recognised that Ottawa Senators (a spent force) would be a better opponent than the Boston Bruins. Their decision to bench their best players (generally rest through the game) and subsequent loss meant that the Canadiens won, they got an easy first round and were refreshed enough to plough through everyone until Detroit. In other words, their thinking was sound and their strategy correct. This season, I can't help but think the same will play out.
Game 1: Carolina vs. New Jersey
This game has playoff pedigree and it could be the first round match-up. It also pits the hottest playoff team vs. the coldest. Carolina has owned New Jersey thus far. but they have handled the other teams as well. In a world where games could be fixed, neither team wants to win here. If New Jersey conspire to lose, they can be sure not to face Carolina. Carolina might not be so compliant as they might well want to face the team they've beaten most.
Game 2: Philadelphia vs. Islanders
This game should be interesting, because if Philly win they will put themselves in the driver's seat for determinging their own fate. They lose the tie breaks to both Pittsburgh and Carolina so would be 6th right now without a game in hand. They could guarantee themselves 6th with two losses. But do they want to play the Devils? Their records against potential opponents seems to suggest that the Devils would be a good bet. They beat Carolina handily, but all games were complete before Carolina turned it around via Cole, Brind'amour and Ward.
The Islanders have nothing to win or lose in this one. They are last in the NHL come what may. I can't see them not trying to win really. Not being able to win, I can see that...
Game 3: Pittsburgh vs. Montreal
This is the game where neither team holds their own fate. However, because games 1 and 2 are in the afternoon, Pittsburgh will have a clear idea of what they might be able to do. Depending on who comes out of that Carolina game on top, and whether or not Philly decides to gamble with positioning, Pittsburgh could have options.
Personally, I think Pittsburgh would take Philadelphia if they could. It offers the worse defence and the worse goalie. The series would be offensive and energetic, just what they seek. And they have the better guns. If Pittsburgh want to face Philly, they'll have to win. But, if Carolina win, will Pittsburgh prefer the hot Hurricanes or the cold Devils. They didn't particularly separate themselves or stumble against either, so that would be a matter for them to decide. If I were them, I'd be avoiding Carolina...
Game 4: Rangers vs. Philadelphia
Now all is known. The Rangers will be in position to choose Washington or Boston. The Flyers might be in position to choose to. Anything's possible here. And this will be the one that decides Montreal's fate if the Habs get a point tonight.
A lid on the Schneider affair...
I haven't been watching RDS on television this holiday weekend, but I thought I'd note they hadn't apologised for their errant reports, at least online. Not that I expected them to. Pat Hickey almost does here:
But absolves himself from taking the bait because the Habs were so darned secretive.
Now rumblings about Markov too. Again good news. And, once again, in almost total contradiction of reports presented to us as fact...
I guess if there's one thing you must believe from what the media has aired and printed over the past two months on the Habs, nothing rings truer than Mathieu Schneider's words. I'd only add the caveat: "You can't believe most of what you hear either."
Out two potential opponents are reasonably hot after having cooled spells of their own pass behind them. New Jersay, also cold, has mystique, experience and the best goalie of time on their side and the three teams from 4 to 6 in the conference are the hottest of them all.
One silver lining for the Canadiens in this whole race is that they won't be facing any of those three, though perhaps they might relish playing one of the Pennsylvania two based on record and goaltenders. They, of course, can't play the Devils no matter how much the Devils would like an elixir for their recent levelling off. It's down the Boston or Washington.
The way the papers have been writing it, you'd think the choice were up to us fans. Of course, it isn't; and thanks to the Canadiens recent disdain for winning, the choice has nothing to do with them either. No, because the New York Rangers sorted their own fate by beating the Flyers, the Canadiens position is up to the Rangers now.
That on its own would offer little to no intrigue at all. What does spice it up, however, is the log jam from 4th to 6th. One of those teams will be starting on home ice, one of them will play the Devils (is that a good or bad thing at this point?) and two will play each other. And, due to the way the last games fell, the last game for each team will be matchups between the bottom six seeds in the conference.
The reason I feel these two days (The Flyers and Rangers ply tomorrow) could get a bit interesting is because this is the one time of year that teams feel justified and able to throw a game for their own gain. Last season, the Penguins properly recognised that Ottawa Senators (a spent force) would be a better opponent than the Boston Bruins. Their decision to bench their best players (generally rest through the game) and subsequent loss meant that the Canadiens won, they got an easy first round and were refreshed enough to plough through everyone until Detroit. In other words, their thinking was sound and their strategy correct. This season, I can't help but think the same will play out.
Game 1: Carolina vs. New Jersey
This game has playoff pedigree and it could be the first round match-up. It also pits the hottest playoff team vs. the coldest. Carolina has owned New Jersey thus far. but they have handled the other teams as well. In a world where games could be fixed, neither team wants to win here. If New Jersey conspire to lose, they can be sure not to face Carolina. Carolina might not be so compliant as they might well want to face the team they've beaten most.
Game 2: Philadelphia vs. Islanders
This game should be interesting, because if Philly win they will put themselves in the driver's seat for determinging their own fate. They lose the tie breaks to both Pittsburgh and Carolina so would be 6th right now without a game in hand. They could guarantee themselves 6th with two losses. But do they want to play the Devils? Their records against potential opponents seems to suggest that the Devils would be a good bet. They beat Carolina handily, but all games were complete before Carolina turned it around via Cole, Brind'amour and Ward.
The Islanders have nothing to win or lose in this one. They are last in the NHL come what may. I can't see them not trying to win really. Not being able to win, I can see that...
Game 3: Pittsburgh vs. Montreal
This is the game where neither team holds their own fate. However, because games 1 and 2 are in the afternoon, Pittsburgh will have a clear idea of what they might be able to do. Depending on who comes out of that Carolina game on top, and whether or not Philly decides to gamble with positioning, Pittsburgh could have options.
Personally, I think Pittsburgh would take Philadelphia if they could. It offers the worse defence and the worse goalie. The series would be offensive and energetic, just what they seek. And they have the better guns. If Pittsburgh want to face Philly, they'll have to win. But, if Carolina win, will Pittsburgh prefer the hot Hurricanes or the cold Devils. They didn't particularly separate themselves or stumble against either, so that would be a matter for them to decide. If I were them, I'd be avoiding Carolina...
Game 4: Rangers vs. Philadelphia
Now all is known. The Rangers will be in position to choose Washington or Boston. The Flyers might be in position to choose to. Anything's possible here. And this will be the one that decides Montreal's fate if the Habs get a point tonight.
A lid on the Schneider affair...
I haven't been watching RDS on television this holiday weekend, but I thought I'd note they hadn't apologised for their errant reports, at least online. Not that I expected them to. Pat Hickey almost does here:
You can't believe everything you read.
That was Mathieu Schneider's message last night after he made a dramatic return to the Canadiens lineup.
He said fans in Montreal got the message he was through for the season from the media, but the Canadiens and Schneider have to share some of the blame because they kept everyone in the dark about the nature of his shoulder injury.
But absolves himself from taking the bait because the Habs were so darned secretive.
Now rumblings about Markov too. Again good news. And, once again, in almost total contradiction of reports presented to us as fact...
I guess if there's one thing you must believe from what the media has aired and printed over the past two months on the Habs, nothing rings truer than Mathieu Schneider's words. I'd only add the caveat: "You can't believe most of what you hear either."
Thursday, April 02, 2009
Playoff Picture Starting To Clear
As we know there's only one way to be sure of playoff participation, and that is to win games. However, a lot of teams will make the playoffs (even those who haven't clinched yet) by losing the majority of the rest of their games. It is a function of who plays who, and even with three point games, teams coming from behind can only catch up so much.
The Flyers are a good example. They currently have 92, and two teams outside the playoff picture could by simple arithmetic overtake them. However, because that would mean the Panthers and the Sabres beating other playoff contenders, and the existing possibility that the 4 teams currently behind them could still lose games as well, it means the Flyers would still have a 32% chance of making the playoffs if they lost all their remaining games. The Hurricanes, with a mere 91 points would have a 28% chance of making the post-season without a further win, and 92 points for them would solidify their position at 49% or so (a toss up).
Predictive models like the one I have been tracking at Sports Club Stats start to come into their own with 5-10 games left, it is where their predictive modelling becomes more reliable and just before the point where we can work it all out in our heads anyway. In any case, they are nothing more than good fun as we all know that 94% of making the playoffs two weeks out if the chance is 0% once the final game is played.
From the Canadiens point of view, it has been interesting the past few days, and indeed weeks. The team currently has an 82.4% chance of making the playoffs (if you prefer to weight games by home ice and previous record, goal differential and all that) 0r a slightly lower 80.8% if you're like me and prefer to believe that 50/50 is closer to the truth at this wacky time of year.
Yesterday's games were pretty tame as far as us scoreboard watchers are concerned. The Leafs win did nothing to improve our chances at making the playoffs (statistically speaking – presumably if we overtake the Flyers we're guaranteed in anyway); the Penguins win over the Devils decreased our chances by a fraction and the Thrashers OT win over Buffalo pushed our likely participation up by less than 1%.
Tonight's games are more interesting, however. Obviously our own game is a big one. A win would push our odds to 9/10 scenarios, whereas a point-less loss would drop us to around 7/10. A lone point would hurt, not help the cause from the odds-makers perspective, but would only affect a 2.5% drop. The Rangers also play and could help us out by losing to the Hurricanes to the tune of a few percent.
Friday's another interesting day (as they all will be until the end of the season now) with the Panthers and Sabres in action.
Cheering the Thrashers on
As you know, Kovalchuk and the Thrashers have done us a few favours recently. For one thing, they bowed down and lost. For another, they've beaten the Sabres twice in a month and the Rangers once as well.
Well our second favourite team will could be playing the second biggest role in determining our playoff fate as they have two of their remaining 5 games against the Florida Panthers. To give you an idea of their importance, a win tomorrow over Florida would help our chances three times more than a single point form us this evening, giving us a 6% bump. If Atlanta were to pull off the sweep (tomahawk chops going?), then Florida would probably need to beat two or three of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Washington, all on decent tears themselves.
Perhaps it's time to get a Ted Turner TNN package to try and get some Atlanta hockey on your sets.
And don't assume it will be a bore watching this revitalised team. Since the Thrashers lost to the Blackhawks on February 11th, the team has actually picked it up mightily going 14-6-1 to bring home the season. Not only that, Kovalchuk is on a rampant tear scoring his 30th goal over the 37-game stretch since the midpoint. Though the odds don't pick it up because of the dismal first half, the Thrashers actually look one of the more likely teams to get wins in the last week and a half of the season...
Canucks in?
The Sports Club Stats website has Vancouver in in all scenarios. The NHL website does not give them the clinch. Out of pure curiosity, I looked into it. I thought you'd enjoy what I found – I think I figured out a way Vancouver could miss the playoffs (it's not surprising it comes out as a zero with 50 million runs):
1) Naturally, Vancouver must lose all their games, they must also take a major goal differential hit to make things more manageable for the trackers – 93 points (0-6-0)
2) St. Louis must win all their games and recover their goal differential to overtake Vancouver – 93 points (5-0-0)
3) Nashville (Vancouver has the tie break) must win all their games too – 94 points (5-0-0)
4) Columbus who will have lost 2 of their remaining 5 to St. Louis and Nashville must pick up OT points in one or both and win 2 of their next three; or just win their other 3 – 93+ points (min 2-2-1)
5) Anaheim need 4 wins and an OTL from 5 (obviously not letting Vancouver get a point in the process) – 94+ points (min 4-0-1)
6) Chicago, now with at least 3 losses from their last 6 from Nashville and Columbus must take a point from Detroit or one of the Columbus games over 3 games – 94+ points (min 0-5-1)
7) Finally, Calgary must get at least a point from their remaining games – 94+ points (min 0-4-2)
The point that should be conceded to celebrating Canucks fans is the fact that even if they lose and all these things happen, because they drew St. Louis in the season series, the Blues going making up the 34 goal gap in goal differential is the biggest stretch of this entire theory. And that's even if you don't look at who plays or goaltends on these teams...
Happy hockey and scoreboard gazing.
Go Habs Go. (And Thrashers too)
The Flyers are a good example. They currently have 92, and two teams outside the playoff picture could by simple arithmetic overtake them. However, because that would mean the Panthers and the Sabres beating other playoff contenders, and the existing possibility that the 4 teams currently behind them could still lose games as well, it means the Flyers would still have a 32% chance of making the playoffs if they lost all their remaining games. The Hurricanes, with a mere 91 points would have a 28% chance of making the post-season without a further win, and 92 points for them would solidify their position at 49% or so (a toss up).
Predictive models like the one I have been tracking at Sports Club Stats start to come into their own with 5-10 games left, it is where their predictive modelling becomes more reliable and just before the point where we can work it all out in our heads anyway. In any case, they are nothing more than good fun as we all know that 94% of making the playoffs two weeks out if the chance is 0% once the final game is played.
From the Canadiens point of view, it has been interesting the past few days, and indeed weeks. The team currently has an 82.4% chance of making the playoffs (if you prefer to weight games by home ice and previous record, goal differential and all that) 0r a slightly lower 80.8% if you're like me and prefer to believe that 50/50 is closer to the truth at this wacky time of year.
Yesterday's games were pretty tame as far as us scoreboard watchers are concerned. The Leafs win did nothing to improve our chances at making the playoffs (statistically speaking – presumably if we overtake the Flyers we're guaranteed in anyway); the Penguins win over the Devils decreased our chances by a fraction and the Thrashers OT win over Buffalo pushed our likely participation up by less than 1%.
Tonight's games are more interesting, however. Obviously our own game is a big one. A win would push our odds to 9/10 scenarios, whereas a point-less loss would drop us to around 7/10. A lone point would hurt, not help the cause from the odds-makers perspective, but would only affect a 2.5% drop. The Rangers also play and could help us out by losing to the Hurricanes to the tune of a few percent.
Friday's another interesting day (as they all will be until the end of the season now) with the Panthers and Sabres in action.
Cheering the Thrashers on
As you know, Kovalchuk and the Thrashers have done us a few favours recently. For one thing, they bowed down and lost. For another, they've beaten the Sabres twice in a month and the Rangers once as well.
Well our second favourite team will could be playing the second biggest role in determining our playoff fate as they have two of their remaining 5 games against the Florida Panthers. To give you an idea of their importance, a win tomorrow over Florida would help our chances three times more than a single point form us this evening, giving us a 6% bump. If Atlanta were to pull off the sweep (tomahawk chops going?), then Florida would probably need to beat two or three of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Washington, all on decent tears themselves.
Perhaps it's time to get a Ted Turner TNN package to try and get some Atlanta hockey on your sets.
And don't assume it will be a bore watching this revitalised team. Since the Thrashers lost to the Blackhawks on February 11th, the team has actually picked it up mightily going 14-6-1 to bring home the season. Not only that, Kovalchuk is on a rampant tear scoring his 30th goal over the 37-game stretch since the midpoint. Though the odds don't pick it up because of the dismal first half, the Thrashers actually look one of the more likely teams to get wins in the last week and a half of the season...
Canucks in?
The Sports Club Stats website has Vancouver in in all scenarios. The NHL website does not give them the clinch. Out of pure curiosity, I looked into it. I thought you'd enjoy what I found – I think I figured out a way Vancouver could miss the playoffs (it's not surprising it comes out as a zero with 50 million runs):
1) Naturally, Vancouver must lose all their games, they must also take a major goal differential hit to make things more manageable for the trackers – 93 points (0-6-0)
2) St. Louis must win all their games and recover their goal differential to overtake Vancouver – 93 points (5-0-0)
3) Nashville (Vancouver has the tie break) must win all their games too – 94 points (5-0-0)
4) Columbus who will have lost 2 of their remaining 5 to St. Louis and Nashville must pick up OT points in one or both and win 2 of their next three; or just win their other 3 – 93+ points (min 2-2-1)
5) Anaheim need 4 wins and an OTL from 5 (obviously not letting Vancouver get a point in the process) – 94+ points (min 4-0-1)
6) Chicago, now with at least 3 losses from their last 6 from Nashville and Columbus must take a point from Detroit or one of the Columbus games over 3 games – 94+ points (min 0-5-1)
7) Finally, Calgary must get at least a point from their remaining games – 94+ points (min 0-4-2)
The point that should be conceded to celebrating Canucks fans is the fact that even if they lose and all these things happen, because they drew St. Louis in the season series, the Blues going making up the 34 goal gap in goal differential is the biggest stretch of this entire theory. And that's even if you don't look at who plays or goaltends on these teams...
Happy hockey and scoreboard gazing.
Go Habs Go. (And Thrashers too)
Monday, November 17, 2008
All-Star Farce
The NHL, The Habs And Their Fans
All-Star Farce
The NHL, The Habs And Their Fans
I wasn't sure if I'd be chiming in on this topic again. I mean, come on, it's pretty uninspiring. Could I be more ambivalent about anything in hockey as I am about all-star voting?
This year, it's turned in to nonsense – with Canadiens fans artificially voting for players with voting code on their PCs. It's always been a bit of a nonsense exercise anyway, this voting, where the same few players get voted in year after year. Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Brodeur, etc. Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Lidstrom, etc.
At first, I have to say I was appalled by the Montreal plebs stuffed the ballot boxes without end. But with the NHL response, and that of people who in my mind go too far the other way, I have to say I am more amused than anything right now. How can I not have a chuckle. If it ticks off Philly fans like this guy:
How could I not laugh? Threw in Richards, eh? As much as Mike Richards is loved by Philly and Benoit Brunet, he is hated by me. I'll be happy if Koivu gets his spot.
Of course, it's embarrassing to Montreal and Canadiens fans. But so are flags on cars, Thunderstix, towel waving and the like. For a city where victory riots are accepted as faits accomplis, I hardly think a little creative computer-programming is much of a black mark in the eyes of the rest of the league. You want embarrassing, look at this:
Frankly the voting debacle's more embarrassing for the league – who have yet again shown their standard level of foresight and risk analysis expertise in forgetting automation (Anybody still confident Bettman and the boys are ready for the inevitable massive drop in revenue coming?). This must be the first time anyone has actually taken one of their slogans to heart ("Vote Now. Vote Often") – they should be forgiven for not being used to anyone paying attention to what they say or their website.
Positives do emerge
Apart from a good laugh at the conservatives calling for a return to the good old days where computer voting didn't mess up the accepted order (and the pre-anointed claimed their new sweaters year upon year), I thought of a few legitimate reasons to be positive about 6 Canadiens on the team.
There are certain positives to emerge from the voting scandal. First and foremost is that Koivu deserves to be on the team. He is one of the top 4 centres in the East and is one of the longest serving captains in the league – with the second-longest tenure as Canadiens captain. Since the game is meant to be part of our 100th season celebrations, he should (and it looks like he will) be there.
The second positive element is that there probably won't be room for as many also rans as the Habs get voted in, the real top players make it through naming (Malkin, Semin, Crosby, Ovechkin, Chara, etc.). If they don't pick up their game, freeloader perennially-named players like Lecavalier, Staal and St. Louis will miss out.
Third, Kovalev deserves to go to the skills competition (if not the game just at the moment). I've always been disappointed when the hardest shooter, fastest skater or best puckhandler weren't included in the more entertaining portion of the event. Maybe they can do the Kovalev pylon drill as a competition?
Fourthly, it will give fans like the guy who said this on a comments thread...
... a chance to see the outside world from here until January (provided he sees the light in auto-voting).
I suppose the final positive to come from this will be the inevitable overhaul that the NHl brings to the system. As with Rory Fitzpatrick, this embarrassment will force them to do something other than hand out 2 game suspensions.
Komisarek not in that league
Of course, there are negatives too. Komisarek chiefly among them.
Komisarek wouldn't make the starting 6 of our team if I had a vote, let alone the Eastern conference. After clawing his way to number 2 on the team and falling back to number 3 towards the end of the season, this all-star possibility currently sits behind 4 other players on my vote card for ice time.
That's why I'll admit it is embarrassing that fans are voting for him anyway. There is blindness to faults. But this will hurt those who purport that Montreal fans know their hockey. People voting for Komisarek as an all-star (even Price for that matter), clearly do not know anything beyond the bleu, blanc, rouge.
It's also unfortunate that the Canadiens (whose centennial season is actually next year) won't get more than their mandatory single representative in 2010. Computer programming laggards everywhere from Sunrise to Voorhees will make sure of it.
This year, it's turned in to nonsense – with Canadiens fans artificially voting for players with voting code on their PCs. It's always been a bit of a nonsense exercise anyway, this voting, where the same few players get voted in year after year. Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Brodeur, etc. Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Lidstrom, etc.
At first, I have to say I was appalled by the Montreal plebs stuffed the ballot boxes without end. But with the NHL response, and that of people who in my mind go too far the other way, I have to say I am more amused than anything right now. How can I not have a chuckle. If it ticks off Philly fans like this guy:
"Guess that means Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Mike Richards, Thomas Vanek and Henrik Lundqvist will have to battle it out for “reserve’’ duty in the Eastern Conference."
How could I not laugh? Threw in Richards, eh? As much as Mike Richards is loved by Philly and Benoit Brunet, he is hated by me. I'll be happy if Koivu gets his spot.
Of course, it's embarrassing to Montreal and Canadiens fans. But so are flags on cars, Thunderstix, towel waving and the like. For a city where victory riots are accepted as faits accomplis, I hardly think a little creative computer-programming is much of a black mark in the eyes of the rest of the league. You want embarrassing, look at this:
Frankly the voting debacle's more embarrassing for the league – who have yet again shown their standard level of foresight and risk analysis expertise in forgetting automation (Anybody still confident Bettman and the boys are ready for the inevitable massive drop in revenue coming?). This must be the first time anyone has actually taken one of their slogans to heart ("Vote Now. Vote Often") – they should be forgiven for not being used to anyone paying attention to what they say or their website.
Positives do emerge
Apart from a good laugh at the conservatives calling for a return to the good old days where computer voting didn't mess up the accepted order (and the pre-anointed claimed their new sweaters year upon year), I thought of a few legitimate reasons to be positive about 6 Canadiens on the team.
There are certain positives to emerge from the voting scandal. First and foremost is that Koivu deserves to be on the team. He is one of the top 4 centres in the East and is one of the longest serving captains in the league – with the second-longest tenure as Canadiens captain. Since the game is meant to be part of our 100th season celebrations, he should (and it looks like he will) be there.
The second positive element is that there probably won't be room for as many also rans as the Habs get voted in, the real top players make it through naming (Malkin, Semin, Crosby, Ovechkin, Chara, etc.). If they don't pick up their game, freeloader perennially-named players like Lecavalier, Staal and St. Louis will miss out.
Third, Kovalev deserves to go to the skills competition (if not the game just at the moment). I've always been disappointed when the hardest shooter, fastest skater or best puckhandler weren't included in the more entertaining portion of the event. Maybe they can do the Kovalev pylon drill as a competition?
Fourthly, it will give fans like the guy who said this on a comments thread...
I've been voting regularly (50+ times a day) and will continue to do so, however the auto-voting bot is useless (and pretty stupid).
... a chance to see the outside world from here until January (provided he sees the light in auto-voting).
I suppose the final positive to come from this will be the inevitable overhaul that the NHl brings to the system. As with Rory Fitzpatrick, this embarrassment will force them to do something other than hand out 2 game suspensions.
Komisarek not in that league
Of course, there are negatives too. Komisarek chiefly among them.
Komisarek wouldn't make the starting 6 of our team if I had a vote, let alone the Eastern conference. After clawing his way to number 2 on the team and falling back to number 3 towards the end of the season, this all-star possibility currently sits behind 4 other players on my vote card for ice time.
That's why I'll admit it is embarrassing that fans are voting for him anyway. There is blindness to faults. But this will hurt those who purport that Montreal fans know their hockey. People voting for Komisarek as an all-star (even Price for that matter), clearly do not know anything beyond the bleu, blanc, rouge.
It's also unfortunate that the Canadiens (whose centennial season is actually next year) won't get more than their mandatory single representative in 2010. Computer programming laggards everywhere from Sunrise to Voorhees will make sure of it.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Overtime losing has it's benefits
Robert L at Eyes on the Prize has the sneaking suspicion that the Habs recored may be fooling everyone into thinking they are better than they are.
Well, he's right isn't he?
Overtime losses do skew the results a little, but I would like to point out a few reasons we should at least be optimistic about the Habs:
1) Many of their OTLs were actually shootout losses. So they didn't actually lose those games. Let's say they tied, with the opponents getting a bonus point. The Canadiens are 2-5 in the shootout, so let's say then that they are 17-13-2 with 5 ties and 2 bonus points. As you can see it's above .500 in actual game play.
2) As much as we dislike them, OTLs do count for points. As I've harped on and on about, in the end points are all that matter in the regular season. I would rather get a point for losing and have a skewed feeling about where we stand than not. I bet the Islanders and Leafs didn't mind beating us last year on the strength of 5 and 6 more OTLs each.
3) Nothing is more disheartening than a 4-0 loss. So, any game that goes to OT is a game we played well enough (or almost) to win. 26/39 is very good in that light. Take into account there were a few games lost before OT that the Habs could have won, then the picture looks alright. Of course, most Eastern teams could do the same exercise for a feel good exercise, but that's why you go back to Point 2 (above) and give less credence to rationalizations like this and more to concrete points.
4) The Habs have 19 wins out of 39. If points were only awarded for winning, we would still be in playoff striking range (T8).
5) The Habs are just below the pace for 96 points (94.6 to be exact). With 3 points in the next 2 games, the Canadiens would be halfway to a 96-point season – the very target I set out. I think we'd all agree that 96 points would be a success and a good step towards improvement and possible playoff success.
Come on Habs fans. Chins up. The kids are alright...
Well, he's right isn't he?
Overtime losses do skew the results a little, but I would like to point out a few reasons we should at least be optimistic about the Habs:
1) Many of their OTLs were actually shootout losses. So they didn't actually lose those games. Let's say they tied, with the opponents getting a bonus point. The Canadiens are 2-5 in the shootout, so let's say then that they are 17-13-2 with 5 ties and 2 bonus points. As you can see it's above .500 in actual game play.
2) As much as we dislike them, OTLs do count for points. As I've harped on and on about, in the end points are all that matter in the regular season. I would rather get a point for losing and have a skewed feeling about where we stand than not. I bet the Islanders and Leafs didn't mind beating us last year on the strength of 5 and 6 more OTLs each.
3) Nothing is more disheartening than a 4-0 loss. So, any game that goes to OT is a game we played well enough (or almost) to win. 26/39 is very good in that light. Take into account there were a few games lost before OT that the Habs could have won, then the picture looks alright. Of course, most Eastern teams could do the same exercise for a feel good exercise, but that's why you go back to Point 2 (above) and give less credence to rationalizations like this and more to concrete points.
4) The Habs have 19 wins out of 39. If points were only awarded for winning, we would still be in playoff striking range (T8).
5) The Habs are just below the pace for 96 points (94.6 to be exact). With 3 points in the next 2 games, the Canadiens would be halfway to a 96-point season – the very target I set out. I think we'd all agree that 96 points would be a success and a good step towards improvement and possible playoff success.
Come on Habs fans. Chins up. The kids are alright...
Monday, November 05, 2007
The visitors' section: Buffalo Sabres
Part of blogging is getting to debate and share with your readers and fellow bloggers. Habs bloggers until now, but I thought it was time to reach out to those blogging our rivals.
Sometimes we focus on our own team so much that we forget there are 14 other teams vying for the 8 playoff spots we are (well 7 if Ottawa doesn't slow down and give everyone else a chance). Sometimes that means we lose to a team that's better than we are. Sometimes we lose to a team who wants to win more than we do.
The Buffalo Sabres have had a couple of super seasons and have stumbled thus far. Although i can't say I am completely shocked about their predicament. The city of Buffalo (and Ontario commuters) sure are.
Here's a summary of what David at Die by the Blade had to say about his Sabres so far this year:
Recent form
The Buffalo Sabres have been very inconsistent this season, searching for an identity after losing Chris Drury and Daniel Briere. At times they look like the team we all saw last year, but at other times they seem to struggle. The Sabres are coming off of a 4-2 loss to the Florida Panthers, in which they allowed the Panthers to score three times in five minutes.
The players
The team is led by Derek Roy, Brian Campbell and Tim Connolly (who is returning from a season long head injury). Ryan Miller is still the backbone of the team, although he has not been as consistent as in years past.
The Sabres have also been soft in their own zone through the first 11 games and have relied on minor league defensemen due to injuries to Jaro Spacek, Dmitri Kalinin and newly signed Nolan Pratt.
I agree with David about the consistency issue. But that, as we know, is the bane of every team that doesn't collect 116 points. Welcome back to the pack (at least for a month or two) Sabres fans. As I said in my weekly review, I think we are well matched with Buffalo, and we each play about the same way the others would like to. I think on current form and hopefully a little desperation born out of a Leafs loss, this game should reflect the standings and we should win. And I stand by Spacek and Afinogenov as my Sabres to keep your eyes on.
I think our guest might have the same opinion of his own team's circumstances if you asked. But even if we're being nice to other bloggers - this is a Habs blog afterall.
Sometimes we focus on our own team so much that we forget there are 14 other teams vying for the 8 playoff spots we are (well 7 if Ottawa doesn't slow down and give everyone else a chance). Sometimes that means we lose to a team that's better than we are. Sometimes we lose to a team who wants to win more than we do.
The Buffalo Sabres have had a couple of super seasons and have stumbled thus far. Although i can't say I am completely shocked about their predicament. The city of Buffalo (and Ontario commuters) sure are.
Here's a summary of what David at Die by the Blade had to say about his Sabres so far this year:
Recent form
The Buffalo Sabres have been very inconsistent this season, searching for an identity after losing Chris Drury and Daniel Briere. At times they look like the team we all saw last year, but at other times they seem to struggle. The Sabres are coming off of a 4-2 loss to the Florida Panthers, in which they allowed the Panthers to score three times in five minutes.
The players
The team is led by Derek Roy, Brian Campbell and Tim Connolly (who is returning from a season long head injury). Ryan Miller is still the backbone of the team, although he has not been as consistent as in years past.
The Sabres have also been soft in their own zone through the first 11 games and have relied on minor league defensemen due to injuries to Jaro Spacek, Dmitri Kalinin and newly signed Nolan Pratt.
I agree with David about the consistency issue. But that, as we know, is the bane of every team that doesn't collect 116 points. Welcome back to the pack (at least for a month or two) Sabres fans. As I said in my weekly review, I think we are well matched with Buffalo, and we each play about the same way the others would like to. I think on current form and hopefully a little desperation born out of a Leafs loss, this game should reflect the standings and we should win. And I stand by Spacek and Afinogenov as my Sabres to keep your eyes on.
I think our guest might have the same opinion of his own team's circumstances if you asked. But even if we're being nice to other bloggers - this is a Habs blog afterall.
Friday, July 06, 2007
Playoffs?
Remember the days when making the playoffs meant beating Hartford or Quebec? Those were the days. We could build for the playoffs, concentrate on establishing chemistry and playing Boston. Playoff streaks were long, round the whole league. We had one, Boston, even St. Louis who continued their's well into the expension age.
Well things have changed a lot. More teams, restrictions on budget, Europeans. The playoffs are becoming a little bit difficult to make. We do all remember missing the last time...
In some ways, though, making the playoffs has not become that much harder. Some teams still stagnate for years (a la Quebec) and those in the hunt need merely hold their concentration through January and February to get it done. Beat all the bottom feeders and you stand a great chance come April. Lose a few to Washington, Florida and the crew and you put yourselves in a precarious situation.
So, now that the free agent frenzy is over (if not all the signings). How do the Habs chances of making the playoffs look. Consider the teams in the East that got better and worse, and by how much.
1) Improved
New York Rangers – Replaced Nylander with Gomez in what could go either way depending on the Jagr chemistry, but did also add a good (and horrendously overpaid) Chris Drury. They were a playoff team, they should stay one.
Philadelphia Flyers – Swapped Forsberg for Briere (I see no great improvement). Added Timonen, but lost Pitkanen (slight improvement if any). Added Hartnell, Lupul and Upshall which should translate into some wins. Added Biron to replace Esche (slight improvement). They also added Jason Smith for another slight boost. When you add it all together it's improvement, but this is still the team that lost the East last year, whose youngsters are so overrated just for being born in Canada it boggles the mind. They should fight for a playoff spot. If they make it, I don't think they will be the fourth or fifth team from this division in, so someone will go home disappointed (NJ?)
Pittsburgh Penguins – Added without really lossing any key parts. Sydor is a great move. Sykora probably isn't, but hey. Crosby will carry them further this year than last.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Good signing in Blake. Well, at least very fiscally responsible. He should fit in well there too. Taking chances on Bell and Toskala should pay off in one way or another at the cost of no prospects from 2007. They are improved, but I thought they overachieved last year, with quite an incredible finish. With the improvement, they should be able to cruise into 7, 8, 9, 10 fight this yea, instead of giving it all for 9th.
Washington Capitals – Adding Kozlov and Nylander could look like the best forward upgrade by the end of the year, especially as nothing major was subtracted. but look where they started! Poti should only add to the confusion at the back. Improved up front, but a non-existent defense means they miss the playoffs again, I think.
2) Worse
New York Islanders – Icing a completely different team, made up entirely of cast offs. I like Ted Nolan as a coach, but even he will have trouble here. Comrie on line 1? Heaven help them. Hanging on to a playoff spot looks all but impossible this year.
Buffalo Sabres – Losing both top centres and Zubrus, and adding Thibault hurt this team. Can't believe Teppo Numminen is still in the NHL, it certainly says a lot about the competitiveness of this team's defense prospects. Should be worse, but they did win the East last year. They kept their two best forwards Vanek and Afinogenov. They will probably eke out a spot.
Ottawa Senators – As of this article, they have only lost players, not gained. That being said, I don't think last year was the end of the line for this team. That first line is the best in the league on most nights. Their defense is the envy of at least 25 teams and their goalie is pretty good. They're worse yes, but should still challenge for the East crown.
New Jersey Devils – Losing Rafalski and Gomez to replace them with Zubrus and Rachunek... ouch. If they get Souray, they could get even worse. Despite all this they still have Brodeur who wins games on his own and Elias who can be the best LW in the league when he wants to (he's already made overpaid free agents out of Gomez and Sykora, who's next? not Zubrus surely...). I think they'll finally be fighting for a spot this year after ten years of cruising. I wouldn't be surprised if they make it, but I wouldn't be shocked if they missed either.
Atlanta Thrashers – Getting whipped in the first round of the playoffs showed this team up for the pretenders that they are. No additions when they probably needed a few on top of that blow to confidence means they got worse. I don't think they have a chance at all, unless Lehtonen has a groin transplant and stops hanging out with Philly's prospects Carter and Richards at the "Could we be any more overrated?" parties through the winter months.
Obviously the other teams moved up or down as well, but I don't think their moves pushed them too far in one direction or the other. I do think Carolina will return to form and show last year was an aberration. And let's not forget Vokoun is no Luongo...
So, how does it all play out then:
Ottawa
Pittsburgh
Carolina
New York Rangers
Tampa Bay
Buffalo
Montreal
New Jersey
Toronto
Philadelphia
Washington
Boston
Atlanta
Florida
New York Islanders
I can't believe my own eyes, but someone has to miss afterall, and someone even has to come last, even if they sign lots of free agents (eh, Philly?)
So Habs fans, we're in for a fight again. I put us in (of course), but those teams that we have to beat don't look like such slouches anymore. Maybe we'll get lucky and Eric Staal will play really poorly again...
Well things have changed a lot. More teams, restrictions on budget, Europeans. The playoffs are becoming a little bit difficult to make. We do all remember missing the last time...
In some ways, though, making the playoffs has not become that much harder. Some teams still stagnate for years (a la Quebec) and those in the hunt need merely hold their concentration through January and February to get it done. Beat all the bottom feeders and you stand a great chance come April. Lose a few to Washington, Florida and the crew and you put yourselves in a precarious situation.
So, now that the free agent frenzy is over (if not all the signings). How do the Habs chances of making the playoffs look. Consider the teams in the East that got better and worse, and by how much.
1) Improved
New York Rangers – Replaced Nylander with Gomez in what could go either way depending on the Jagr chemistry, but did also add a good (and horrendously overpaid) Chris Drury. They were a playoff team, they should stay one.
Philadelphia Flyers – Swapped Forsberg for Briere (I see no great improvement). Added Timonen, but lost Pitkanen (slight improvement if any). Added Hartnell, Lupul and Upshall which should translate into some wins. Added Biron to replace Esche (slight improvement). They also added Jason Smith for another slight boost. When you add it all together it's improvement, but this is still the team that lost the East last year, whose youngsters are so overrated just for being born in Canada it boggles the mind. They should fight for a playoff spot. If they make it, I don't think they will be the fourth or fifth team from this division in, so someone will go home disappointed (NJ?)
Pittsburgh Penguins – Added without really lossing any key parts. Sydor is a great move. Sykora probably isn't, but hey. Crosby will carry them further this year than last.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Good signing in Blake. Well, at least very fiscally responsible. He should fit in well there too. Taking chances on Bell and Toskala should pay off in one way or another at the cost of no prospects from 2007. They are improved, but I thought they overachieved last year, with quite an incredible finish. With the improvement, they should be able to cruise into 7, 8, 9, 10 fight this yea, instead of giving it all for 9th.
Washington Capitals – Adding Kozlov and Nylander could look like the best forward upgrade by the end of the year, especially as nothing major was subtracted. but look where they started! Poti should only add to the confusion at the back. Improved up front, but a non-existent defense means they miss the playoffs again, I think.
2) Worse
New York Islanders – Icing a completely different team, made up entirely of cast offs. I like Ted Nolan as a coach, but even he will have trouble here. Comrie on line 1? Heaven help them. Hanging on to a playoff spot looks all but impossible this year.
Buffalo Sabres – Losing both top centres and Zubrus, and adding Thibault hurt this team. Can't believe Teppo Numminen is still in the NHL, it certainly says a lot about the competitiveness of this team's defense prospects. Should be worse, but they did win the East last year. They kept their two best forwards Vanek and Afinogenov. They will probably eke out a spot.
Ottawa Senators – As of this article, they have only lost players, not gained. That being said, I don't think last year was the end of the line for this team. That first line is the best in the league on most nights. Their defense is the envy of at least 25 teams and their goalie is pretty good. They're worse yes, but should still challenge for the East crown.
New Jersey Devils – Losing Rafalski and Gomez to replace them with Zubrus and Rachunek... ouch. If they get Souray, they could get even worse. Despite all this they still have Brodeur who wins games on his own and Elias who can be the best LW in the league when he wants to (he's already made overpaid free agents out of Gomez and Sykora, who's next? not Zubrus surely...). I think they'll finally be fighting for a spot this year after ten years of cruising. I wouldn't be surprised if they make it, but I wouldn't be shocked if they missed either.
Atlanta Thrashers – Getting whipped in the first round of the playoffs showed this team up for the pretenders that they are. No additions when they probably needed a few on top of that blow to confidence means they got worse. I don't think they have a chance at all, unless Lehtonen has a groin transplant and stops hanging out with Philly's prospects Carter and Richards at the "Could we be any more overrated?" parties through the winter months.
Obviously the other teams moved up or down as well, but I don't think their moves pushed them too far in one direction or the other. I do think Carolina will return to form and show last year was an aberration. And let's not forget Vokoun is no Luongo...
So, how does it all play out then:
Ottawa
Pittsburgh
Carolina
New York Rangers
Tampa Bay
Buffalo
Montreal
New Jersey
Toronto
Philadelphia
Washington
Boston
Atlanta
Florida
New York Islanders
I can't believe my own eyes, but someone has to miss afterall, and someone even has to come last, even if they sign lots of free agents (eh, Philly?)
So Habs fans, we're in for a fight again. I put us in (of course), but those teams that we have to beat don't look like such slouches anymore. Maybe we'll get lucky and Eric Staal will play really poorly again...
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