League Table Gazing A Strange Fixation

As we settle down following round 12 of the goalie debate, the default is to look at the standings and decide what is on the horizon.

Last week, we were "out of the playoffs", teams had games in hand, there was little hope. This week, we're "in the playoffs", teams have played their extra games, things look up. Yet, the difference between last week and this was 2 wins and an OTL. Are you telling me the world has changed in 3 games?

The language of the standings

Can we please just inject a little bit of sanity to this daily discussion. Today Mike Boone tried to explain the connotations of every win-loss scenario that could occur this evening. In a bit of self-mockery, he once again called the game a 4-pointer. He's technically right. But then every game is a 4-pointer. If Florida loses every game after this one, then it's really only a two pointer for the Habs. That's because the playoffs don't begin tomorrow.

Since it is January, not April, I have some suggestions:

Not "in" or "out" of the playoffs

Can we not say the Habs are "in" or "out" every five minutes?

Let's clear something up. If the Habs lose tonight, they are not out of the playoffs. They are not in, if they win. All they do is increase their chances.

The standings are useful to remind inform us on wins that have happened, but they don't tell us much about the future. Just as they didn't tell us last week that St. Louis was a hotter opponent than the Devils.


Not every game has to define a season

A week ago, JT of The H Does Not... asked "What is this team playing for?". Today she's upping the drama for tonight's game by insinuating it will define a season. I know what she's getting at. We all talk about must wins, but let's try to learn from the lessons of a mere week ago: The season doesn't turn on a game.

Can we please relay the importance without looking for turning points as they happen, when nothing is turning, just continuing in the cycle of up and down.

This game means nothing more than next game or the game after that. All points count, but you only need to win half your games to make the playoffs. Losses are par for the course.


This year is not so special

"Oh, the playoffs have begun early this year." Actually, it's just the inane fretting that's begun early. Every season ends with a half dozen teams jostling for a couple of places. This season isn't so different. The big difference, so far as I can tell is that the West has dominated in interleague play and have brought about confusion as to what a good point total should be.


No one wins a tie break because they've played less games

There are established tie breaks, playing less games is not one of them. It would be more useful to discuss the real tie breaks, like season series, wins and goal differential. The Habs beat the Panthers, by the way, on each.


Playoff predictions

A fun website to keep an eye on, though not to worry too much about, at this time of year is Sports Club Stats. They use algorithms with goals scored and allowed, wins and losses and opponents to come up with a playoff probability. To give you an idea of how much sense this makes in January:

If you can find the Canadiens with the cursor, you'll see their past week has boosted their chances by 26% to make them the leading contender for 8th. The Rangers had the opposite week. To watch game-by-game at this point is a roller coaster ride. To make declarations based on a single game at this point makes little to no sense at all.

For your amusement, if the Canadiens do win tonight, the website says the Habs playoff chances will rise by about 8%. Down 8% if they lose. The Panthers see similar gains and losses. It's impressive, but guess what? Next game promises to have big implications too (maybe bigger), and the one after that, and the one after...

The Canadiens lowest probability of making the playoffs last season was about 83%. They made the playoffs, but on a tie break. The Hurricanes had a 21% chance of making the playoffs in January 2009, they played in the conference finals.


Frustrating as it may be, in the age of instant gratification, by all indications we'll probably have to wait for the games to be played before we can see who's in the playoffs, who holds the tie breaks, which games literally eliminate people from contention. The sooner we all realise that, the better.

Boivin Parries And Thrusts

RDS is kind enough to remind me upon every entry to their site that there are only 3 days remaining until their blessed Anti-chambre launches a new season. 110%, renamed L'Attaque a Cinq (fitting that they have finally included attack in their name). And, the ubiquitous Rejean Tremblay is still producing his daily drivel.

What will happen in 3 days, if it hasn't happened already is the full-on debate about what has happened to the Canadiens over the summer. There will be moments spent lamenting Kovalev, I expect, before the whole discourse comes to rest on the question that has been looming for a long time: Are 3 French-speaking, Quebec-born players enough?

The barrage began early for the Canadiens defence. First Geoff Molson was accused of forming an ownership team that may not be Quebecoois enough. An astute parry from M. Molson reminded the pea-brained reporter that his family's got a Quebec heritage as rich as anyone's.

As Pat Hickey put it:

He pointed out the fact he is a seventh-generation Quebecer, his family has been here for more than 200 years and they have always been deeply involved in the community.

Boivin cites some statistics

Next it was Boivin's turn, and if you understand French, you should really go check it out on RDS's website, because the man can rattle off a volley and some with good sense in it as well.

The offensive blows he stung the reporter with were the high points. He noted, for instance, that there were 43 Quebecers in the NHL last season to play more than a 41 games. The Canadiens accounted for 8 of those (or 20ish percent). Assuming no massive shift to Quebec players league-wide, the Canadiens three will still account for more than their share.

He also explains to the blindfolded that cycles have played a role in this change. Noting that the QMJHL is not exactly in its heyday right at the moment.

Boivin gets pretty irritated by the end of the interview and is adamant that considering francophone issues is something that is at the heart of every decision made in the Canadiens organization, be it in the front office, in coaching, scouting or among the players. And, in allusion to the Lecavalier/St. Louis approaches that were widely speculated, he asserted that his team made big efforts to acquire Quebec players this past summer – that it was just not to be.


110% by its new name

Perhaps if they promise to bar M. Rinfret, i can concede they've changed more than the window dressing. Anyway, you can be the judge yourself as to whether the TQS (sorry, Tele V) crew has altered their tack or not. So long as it's got Jean Perron and his tangential rants, this show will always be the same proposition for me.

That night "L'attaque a cinq" took up the debate.
The debate segment of their Thursday show asked the question:

"Croyez-vous que le Canadien fait suffisamment d'efforts pour attirer des joueurs francophones à Montréal?"

In what promises to be the first of 150 nights treating this topic, Jean Perron appeared to win the day – but only in the Pierre McGuire (I'm the loudest) kind of way. No one sensible really got a word in edgewise.

Predictably, Jean's answer to the question was a very firm no. He was very proud of himself for citing Yannick Riendeau to Boston about 20 times over the 10 minutes as the prime exhibit in his argument.

Now, I may be unfair, because I've never had to face a raving lunatic on TV, but couldn't someone more astute have deflated Jean's Riendeau argument by mentioning that actually the Habs signed his teammate, Dany Masse, days later and have since drafted another Voltigeur, hired their minor league coach and invited Philippe Lefebvre to no less than two try-outs (BREAKING: now to main camp as well). Bring it on Jean, I'll take you, mate.


Rejean Tremblay

Well you can't count tenaciousness among M. Tremblay's weaknesse, of which there are many. He offers yet another thesis on the Canadiens and their connection with Quebec here.

Not much of it is new. Nor is it very convincing when his facts are invented (I prefer to trust the EU number which say 50% of Germans speak English, not 12% – after that I discounted those ridiculous stats).

After insulting Pierre Boivin's Frenchness and lauding his own patriotism by tourism, the bombshell he reserved is a report from Robert Sirois that will tell us about the league-wide conspiracy against Quebecers. I'll await the report, but don't we already know this stuff? Still 1,000 hours – give the man his piece.

As for Rejean, nothing but hot air from the hairdryer – nothing unexpected. If I didn't want to get my back up, I should know better than to follow that link. I offer you all the same warning.


More to come?

My guess is yes. And this is a surer bet than taking Ovechkin in a hockey pool. The issue is not resolved and so it will not be laid to rest.

The interesting thing is that the Perron's and the Tremblays of the world are starting to come across as out of touch as more and more fans of the team offer the olive branch to wait and see how this team does, as they hope for more wins, not better demographics.

We'll keep an eye, because this one will be a story. Your opinions, as always are welcome.

Language And Hockey

I don't want to wade too far into this quagmire, but a couple of really good articles have come up recently that made me think I should at least recommend them to you.

All will have noticed the amputation of the Quebecois arm of the Canadiens defence and the slow letting of some of the forward group as well. The comment has begun in some quarters and I recommend a read. At the very least it will prepare you with some background as you take in the doubtless numerous debates on this issue in l'Antichambre and 110% studios come September.

Anyway, here are the links:

No Dogs or Anglophones writes on the initial early July boycott that arose from the non-signings and signings that formed the 2009-10 Habs. The links within the piece are very educational and give a better idea of where the other side of the debate might be coming from.

And, yesterday new blogger Flying Frenchmen asked THE question. I hope he'll answer it too. I'm sure once he gets his feet in the blogosphere he'll be more willing to take on the storm... I responded on his blog, but only with regard to the biggest zealots on the issue who I feel will never be happy about the balance of the team – because happiness is not what they seek.


Aside on language: The RDS legacy

A bit of a tangent, I also wanted to note one very positive aspect of the language and the Canadiens lies with RDS. It's oft overlooked and even obscured as I criticise their journalistic integrity, but the fact remains if you are a fan of the Canadiens, RDS has been a boon.

Part of it is monopoly, of course. But a happy one, I'd suggest. Whether you are English, Spanish, Haitian, New Zealander, Finn, Quebecois or Manitoban you virtually have to watch the game in French. I say virtually because there are some alternatives: CBC on Saturdays, TSN once in a blue moon, or the old CJAD radio broadcast (if you can stand the ads and Murray Wilson's rambling – I can't). As such, we know that many fans of the team whose mother tongue is English will tune into the excellent Pierre Houde and his flailing side kick to take in the games.

I can only really speak from personal experience here, but watching hockey and hockey related programmes on RDS (everyone knows Sports 30 is Habs 26) has literally upped my French TV consumption by 100%. Were it not for this exposure and associated blogs and websites, my French would be woefully out of practice. Instead, I am very much in tune with my second language, and very pleased about that too. In fact, I'm happy that so many Habs fans across the country (if they can afford to bring RDS into their homes, that is) can enjoy this option as well.

And the great thing for the real fans of the French language is that it doesn't matter where the players on the ice are from really. The play-by-play, the comment, it's all in French (aside from Brunetisms) regardless of who's controlling the puck. It's great (free) practice for me – and honestly, where would I be without learning all the interesting ways that french pronunciation of Eastern European and other names differs from the English. Plekanetz? Malahoff? Derek Roy?

Introducing Koivu, Habs announcer

Now that everyone else has weighed in on the Koivu affair, it seems like among the bloggers at least, Koivu is well respected and lawyer Guy is not.

To be expected I suppose.

While Koivu didn't score a hat trick as I asked him to. He did put in a mighty fine performance in both hockey and language for the night.

So who else can we get to complain about his language skills?

Hi knowledge of the language could be inversely proportional to the number of points he gets...

Maybe Italian Montrealers are feeling disenfranchised and would like a little bit of the intro in Italian next time. Koivu 5 goals.

Or, for the Greeks, Koivu could welcome them to the Bell Centre and announce each goal in their native tongue. Koivu 11 points, NHL record.

Who knows. Just don't get him to do it in Finnish then.

Let's go Habs. Big game tonight. I hope Koivu can bring some more of Thursday's energetic erformance to the table.