Canadiens Season Preview: Second Pairing Defence

Now that for all intents and purposes, I've put the two best defenders on the top pairing, anyone who plays with Hamrlik will have the honour of being on the second paring, though it's not to say he won't be the 6th defenceman. As you know, I've looked at many things here, and the conclusion I've come to on the second pairing is this:

Hamrlik – O'Byrne


Roman Hamrlik

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	81	6	27	33	+4	3.52	6.59	2.64	1.39	-1.25	62
07-08 (MTL)	77	5	21	26	+7	4.65	6.30	2.36	1.21	-1.14	38
06-07 (CGY)	75	7	31	38	+22	2.96	4.02	2.32	1.58	-0.74	88

Even-strength profile
	Above average offensive production at even strength Average GA at even strength Below average prevention of chances at even strength Negative CORSI: -6.6

Legend


Stats notes
Hamrlik must have had a heck of a first half for him to end up with such respectable stats and yet to be found wearing the ring of shame from Habs fans. Those of fickle memories won't remember (or give credit) for work well done in the first 50 games though. Take this forgotten report, for example:

2. Roman Hamrlik: A
Teams can't win with just one great defenceman. There have to be options. Hamrlik is the perfect option. Like Andrei, he takes care of defence first. His calming influence on everyone, including O'Byrne, Brisebois, Bouillon and the viewers, is invaluable. When he plays well the team plays well, too – hence a good first half. The transformation of the Canadiens from playoff outsider to this could be traced to Souray for Hamrlik without too much reaching, you know.

To note:

1) Gentle giant
Perhaps it's because he came through as an offensive prodigy, but Roman Hamrlik has never been counted among the feared defencemen in the league. But as we know, being feared doesn't always equate to good defence. Roman, while being gentler than most men his size, is actually an acolyte of the Markov takeaway style over the Komisarek hit style. His 41 takeaways aren't Markov level, but they do put him in the top 10% of defencemen.

2) Sacrificed defence for offense
At least last season, it seems to me that Hamrlik sacrificed what was previously a very sound defensive contribution for a few more points. My advice to him would be to cut that out, for he's a far more valuable player to use if he can be our defensive lynchpin rather than a poor man's Markov. Keep the good passes coming, but full flight down the wing for shots? Let's curtail that where possible.

3) Too many PIMs
Last season Roman also took too many penalties for a player of his importance. Because of his strengths (takeaways, size and positioning), he is probably first choice for the PK. Well you can't kill a penalty if you're in the box. Cutting out the silly pens should help him regain his game and his stature with fans.


Things may have gone downhill, but the stats say Hamrlik slipped below our expectations of him, yes; but our expectations (based on that first half) were very high. In the end, his season was a decent one on average, and he was 2nd best at the back by a fairly clear margin.


Tobalev on Hamrlik:

There are conflicting sentiments out there amongst Habs fans. Some people really value the former #1 pick yet others see him as a waste of space and as a liability. I’ll tell you this though, at his best Roman can be an outstanding defenceman and can easily look like a #1. In his first year with the Habs, he was solid each and every game in his own end and even contributed quite nicely to the offence. Last year, however, it seemed that his play was much more unpredictable and it wasn’t unusual for him to have an off night on the nights we were racking up the Ls. All in all last year, I think, was still a good year, just maybe not great. He picked up 33 points (not bad for our third choice) and finished the year at +4.

He seemed to do well last year with Gorges, but I wouldn’t hold Martin to that pairing. I am not too concerned about who he’ll play with and even think it is conceivable that he partners anyone on the team. I am not worried about stats in Hamrlik’s case this year as all I hope for is a return to ’07-’08 form. If he can be a defensive force for 82 games then the season will be a success. I still, however, expect him to post at least 25 points (4-8 of which should be goals). If he plays the way we all know he can then his career -60 rating can only improve. In addition, don’t be surprised to see Hammer wearing a letter of some shape this year as he will likely take on quite a big leadership role now that Komi has gone.


Where Hamrlik will start 2009-10: Facing the Leafs best line of ... I'll get back to you after I've read my ECHL media guide from 2007.

Where Hamrlik will end 2009-10: With renewed faith from Canadiens fans

Points: 6 G, 20 A, 26 Pts



Ryan O'Byrne

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	37	0	5	5	-7	8.27	4.40	2.90	1.18	-1.72	58
07-08 (MTL)	33	1	6	7	+7	8.81	6.78	2.58	1.36	-1.22	45

Even-strength profile
	Profile as hideous as the colour scheme – below average in every facet Bottom tier in offensive output at even strength Bottom tier in prevention of chances at even strength Awful CORSI: -10.1

Legend


Stats notes

We all know O'Byrne had a rough year in 2008-09, but from all signs he's eager to put it behind him. ONe can't ignore all the negatives, but nor should we overlook some of the positive things:

1) Will replace Komisarek's hits
In what amounts to a single season's worth of games, the "rookie" Dman showed he wasn't afraid to throw his weight around. With more playing time, 8+ hits per 60 minutes will see him flirt with league leaders here.

2) Not completely inept offensively
We'll never see him on the PP, but O'Byrne has put up a respectable 11 assists in his first 70 NHL games. When you consider that he has been playing less with top line forwards than perhaps he has with lesser lights, it's not bad. The reason to hope here is that Martin's game will call for better passes from all defenders to forwards, and Ryan has shown glimmers of hope in that regard.

3) Giveaways not the entire problem
Sometimes giveaways stand out more than any other plays. Sometimes they become the only thing you can see in your mind's eye when you hear a player's name. I think this might be the case for Ryan. But while he's certainly flirting with the bottom of the table with his giveaways, he's still better than half the TO corps (Schenn, Van Ryn and Komisarek). Though I don't have a stat to prove it here, it was Ryan's other problem – positioning – that led to that nasty deep turquoise stain on his pie chart. Luckily, positioning is something Jacques Martin is teaching each day this fall, so Ryan, with an open mind, will benefit.


There you have it, Ryan O'Byrne, blemishes, scars and all. Of all the players previewed, I don't think I have had to suspend the belief in stats as much as I have in putting O'Byrne on the second pairing. Call it giving him a second chance. In his round-about way (trying to rescue Brisebois' reputation along the way), even Bertrand Raymond agrees with me that Ryan deserves another chance on the merry-go-round. If you can read French, then you should have look at the article on O'Byrne, it's a very good read (whatever you make think of Raymond).


Tobalev on O'Byrne

No player took a bigger step back last year than Ryan. Not even Carey Price himself was able to blow his stock as badly as this kid. It just seemed that his season went from bad to worse. The defensive blunders, own goal and lack of offence became intolerable for all of us and the coaches alike. In the end, he only saw 37 games of action in which he seemed to make no positive impact at all. It appeared, at times, that the once confident and smooth-skating giant had lost all hockey-sense – he even managed to look worse than Brisebois on multiple occasions.

Ryan must be able to see the writing on the wall this year and it certainly isn’t pretty. He is obviously no longer being looked upon as a can’t miss prospect, since Gainey went out and got two similarly sized defencemen. With minimal offensive upside, it wouldn't be surprising if Ryan didn’t see much time with Montreal this year. Injuries, though, provide his lifeline. If one or two of Gill, Mara or Hamrlik miss, it'll mean playing time and a chance for the 25 year-old to prove that he belongs at this level. I said last year that if a 6’6” guy is unwilling to play a solid, physical game then he really is just a waste of space. His game has to be hitting, possession and board-battles, otherwise we may as well call anyone up from the farm instead; at least that player might score a goal or two. Time will tell if he plays or not – he could play more than seasons past or he could play very little. When he plays in Montreal he must make it count, if not his time may be short-lived and may even be his final stint in the bleu, blanc, rouge.


Where O'Byrne will start 2009-10: In the pressbox most likely

Where O'Byrne will end 2009-10: Waving up at Hal Gill from the ice

Points: 2 G, 10 A, 12 Pts


As a pairing

Pairing #2	Effect O/D
D – Roman Hamrlik		Made most teammates better offensively Made most teammates worse defensively Seemed to prefer a big partner Played best overall with Ryan O'Byrne last season
D – Ryan O'Byrne		Made some teammates better defensively Made all his common linemates worse offensively Played best overall with Roman Hamrlik last season

As agreed at the beginning, this pairing is Hamrlik's. The decision then is who to play beside Roman. The choices: Gorges, Mara, Gill, O'Byrne, Weber or Carle.

Like me, your first thoughts here probably jumped to Josh Gorges. He's probably our 4th best defenceman with Mara, and he has played with Hamrlik before. But I tell you what, it doesn't play out for me. Here's why. Hamrlik played about equal time (300-400 minutes) with 3 different players last season: Ryan O'Byrne, Josh Gorges and Patrice Brisebois. Hamrlik was at his best defensively with O'Byrne (marks for that), even though his offense suffered. Hamrlik was at his best offensively with Gorges, but was much poorer when they were together on D, as was Josh. And, predictably, Patrice Brisebois made worse Hamrlik's averages on both offense and defence.

I then add that he played pretty badly with Markov, Bouillon, Schneider and Weber; but very well with Komisarek – and I start to see what makes Roman tick. Unlike Markov, he seems to like a big guy who hits and pushes forwards outside. Last year that meant O'Byrne and Komisarek, this year it means O'Byrne, Mara and Gill. It rules out Josh Gorges, Spacek and Markov altogether for me.

Now let me tell you why I choose O'Byrne from that group. First, though the other guys are big, they don't hit like O'Byrne (who hits twice as frequently). Gill, I excluded (though Martin probably won't) because his giveaway to takeaway ratio even in a good year for him was worse than a bad year for O'Byrne. Thirdly, O'Byrne was actually THE guy who got the best defence out of Hamrlik last year – to the tune of 2.1 GA/60 in their 365 minutes together last season. I wonder what O'Byrne's own stats might have looked like had he only played with O'Byrne and avoided his misadventures with Bouillon, Gorges and Markov.

Mara? Well, I had to consider Gorges as well. You'll hear about that tomorrow.




Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier

Canadiens Season Preview: Top Pairing Defence

Back to reality. It's time to forget the Komisareks and Briseboises of the world and move on to the guys we'll actually be cheering for this season. Up first is the first defensive pairing, Markov's duo:

Markov – Spaeck

Andrei Markov

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	78	12	52	64	-2	1.91	3.47	3.21	1.87	-1.34	36
07-08 (MTL)	82	16	42	58	+1	1.73	3.72	2.70	1.76	-0.94	63
06-07 (MTL)	77	6	43	49	+2	1.21	3.79	2.77	2.39	-0.38	56

Even-strength profile
	Average offensive production at even strength Above average chance creation at even strength Average to below average defence even strength Negative CORSI: -3.9

Legend


Stats notes
Forgive me for what I am about to say, I promise to wash my mouth out promptly. In looking through all the profiles, why is it that two that look more similar than any are those of Andrei Markov and Patrice Brisebois?

Colours alone are identical. the numbers in the pieces of pie don't wobble that much either. How can the player I call favourite, and most call the best player we've had in a decade, find an equal in the peerless Patrice Brisebois?

Well, there are a few things to put this in context. First, is the quality of competition that each player generally faced. Markov had the second highest QUALCOMP rating on the team, while Brisebois had the lowest. And, although the raw numbers are low, it merely shows that although Carbonneau was trying to get good matchups, he just wasn't all that great at it.

The other thing that should be noted is that Markov didn't actually have a very good season at ES. Though he played an average of more then 15 minutes a game at ES, he scored a mere 24 of his points there – 39 came on the PP. This speaks to a few things, really. The first, that the Canadiens weren't a very organized bunch at even strength. A lot of their goals came from haphazard occurrences rather than established zone penetration with a defender involved. It also shows that Markov had to take quite a bit off his usually outstanding offence to cover more at the back. We all saw Komi's profile. I'm not sure whether the blame was all his. However, one thing was clear, between them, Andrei and Mike made some one-man plays into 2-man ordeals last year.

Anyway, enough fretting, here's some other things to note from Andrei's stats:

1) Offensive explosion
The last 3 years show the continued progression of Andrei Markov into the ranks of elite offensive defencemen. In fact, his 171 points over that span are second best in the NHL – lagging behind only Nicklas Lidstrom.

2) Defensive steadiness
Not quite so elite in preventing goals, and perhaps the reason he never gets a Norris nod. Andrei's plus/minus is virtually neutral. As mentioned, most of his points do tend to come when he has been running the best PP in the league, so those ones don't appear in the black ledger. Even so, it might be nice to see Andrei escape the mediocrity of all those GA at ES and put up a big juicy +/- like that guy ahead of him in the points race.

3) Takeaways, not hits
Those takeaway numbers may not mean anything to you, but you should know that they are very high. Last season, Markov was third in the league for Dmen in takeaways, as he was the year before. Three seasons ago, he was the best defender in that regard. This is because Markov prefers the poke check to the body check – and when you consider his partner, he makes a good case for the more subtle form of defence.


Tobalev on Markov:

Markov was our best player, by far, last year and that was never more evident than during his absence towards the end of the year and throughout the playoffs. He rarely takes a night off from being one of the 5 best defenceman in the league. He has the ability to turn games around and that alone makes him invaluable. It will be interesting to see how he makes out without having guys like Kovalev, Koivu, Komisarek or Bouillon there as he is now really the only one left from what was our core for so many years. I don’t think that his play will regress because of all of the departures, but I think it will all have some effect on him. Andrei will now be our main leader even if he isn’t named captain as the Habs, in my eyes, are now his team.

I believe that Markov’s defensive play (or the perspective of it) will also improve this year as a partnership with Spacek, Gorges or even Mara is a huge upgrade on Komisarek. In fact I think that he is the biggest reason Mike is laughing all the way to the bank this summer, because without Marky, Mike’s mistakes would actually get noticed. Andrei's offensive numbers could go either way really. I can’t see him getting too much more than 65, maybe 70; but wouldn’t be surprised if his point total dropped to the 50-55 point range. If our PP clicks and he finds some new pass-buddies his numbers will be fine, but that may be an area of weakness for us this year. Regardless of points Andrei will still be our best player and look for him to be the difference on many a night.


Where Markov will start 2009-10: Best player on the team

Where Markov will end 2009-10: Only player nominated for an individual trophy/honour

Points: 14 G, 42 A, 56 Pts



Jaroslav Spacek

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (BUF)	80	8	37	45	+2	2.63	4.24	2.36	0.84	-1.51	38
07-08 (BUF)	60	9	23	32	+7	3.39	3.26	1.87	0.52	-1.35	42
06-07 (BUF)	65	5	16	21	+20	4.00	4.96	2.41	0.96	-1.45	62

Even-strength profile
	Outstanding offense at even strength Above average prevention of chances at even strength Below average GA at even strength Positiv CORSI: +7.8

Legend


Stats notes

I can honestly say that in the decade that Jaroslav Spacek has been in the NHL, I don't think I ever paid him a moment's notice. In fact, the first time I ever bothered to look at his career and his stats was back in July – as you can read, I was pleasantly surprised. ON a second look, there's still plenty to bring up:

1) Incredible ES offense when he's on
That number in the deep crimson in the top left of the pie chart is a very interesting one. As you'll know by now, 3.0 GF/60 is a pretty special threshold – in fact, if you score that high, you can pretty much call yourself elite (top 10% of the league). Jaroslav comes very close to that mark, which is interesting. It's interesting because his actual points at even strength aren't that high (only 23 – like Markov). So, what it shows is that his presence on the ice (and the pass to start the play that maybe isn't an assist in the end) is good, very good.

2) Impressive CORSI number
In addition to actually delivering the goods, last year Spacek was very effective with his teammates at tipping the ice the Sabres way. His +7.8 Corsi is very good. But consider that his Corsi relative to the team was even better – an astounding 14.6. To put it briefly, when Spacek was on the ice, the Sabres got 7.8 more chances every 60 minutes than they let up; when he was off, they allowed 6.8 more than they created. He definitely provided the base from which those speedy forwards could launch themselves from.

3) Low PIM
Yes there are giveaways there, like Markov, but Spacek doesn't seem to let a giveaway turn into a much worse scenario – a penalty – that often. 19 penalties in a season, considering the amount he played is laudable. Perhaps testament to a more mature approach to the game.


Like Markov, Spacek is best viewed through with an offensive skew. However, despite his shortcomings, it seems Spacek has learned how to consistently turn the ice in his own team's favour. If we are sitting here next season looking at a pie chart like this from Spacek, let me tell you, we'll be a very happy bunch.


Tobalev on Spacek

Pretty obvious that Gainey doesn’t think Markov can work the point on the PP on his own, isn’t it? First it was Souray, then Streit, then we tried no one (it didn’t work), then Schneider and now Spacek. I guess Markov has some weird clause in his contract that states that his partner’s name must begin with an S; how else could you explain this? It is a good thing then that we found Spacek as Gainey was really running out of options (no offence Staios). Spacek, for his part, had a great year in Buffalo last year and topped 40 points (he has produced that amount of points in his last two contract years) and was a leader on the blue-line for the almost-playoff team. Don’t forget, however, that at 35 he isn’t that much younger than Schneider and is likely on the decline.

Of the four PP ‘S’s Spacek has to be #2 defensively (Streit) which is something that I am quite excited about. It will be nice to have a big-shot and big PP-minute man who is also able to play in his own end. I fully expect another ‘+’ year from Jaro which will only help to improve his already solid +25 career rating. I am not sure if he’ll hit 40 points, but you have to think that 35 should not be a problem. With his shot, Markov’s passing and enough PP time that target is very much within reach. I am happy we got this player and think that you will all be too - he is better defensively than you think, has a surprisingly accurate and hard shot (good one-timer too) and, from what I’ve heard, is a stand-up team guy. He is definitely good enough to be a #2 in this league, but will slot in nicely at #3 behind his countryman, Hammer, and Andrei.


Where Spacek will start 2009-10: With the weight of the PP on his neck

Where Spacek will end 2009-10: New fan favourite

Points: 8 G, 33 A, 41 Pts


As a pairing

Pairing #1	Effect O/D
D – Andrei Markov		Made most teammates better offensively Had varied effects on defensive games (Komisarek was worse) Seemed to prefer a small quick partner to a big partner Played best overall with Josh Gorges last season
D – Jaroslav Spacek		Made most teammates better defensively Made all his common linemates better offensively Played best overall with Toni Lydman last season

As with the forward lines, I pencil in the starting point for the first pairing first. The starting point on defence for the Canadiens is Andrei Markov. From that point, I tried to guess at which player from the other 6 would help maximise the potential of Markov, while also thriving himself.

Last year's stats show that Markov no longer likes the big lout to do all the pushing while he skates here there and everywhere picking up the pieces. What lets him be at his best is actually playing with a player more like himself, who can dart around and make a good quick pass – covering more ice with movement as opposed to mass. That for me ruled out O'Byrne and Gill right away, and based on the stats from when they played together, Hamrlik too. Mara is big too, but he seems to play a different game – he was a possibility. Still, the really obvious choices were Gorges (who Markov has shown he likes) and Spacek.

In the end I opted for Spacek for a few reasons. For one thing, I think he may be able to potentiate Markov to an even greater degree than any other option. For another, Markov fit with the kind of player that Spacek liked best, while Gorges seems more adaptable.

It seems Jacques Martin has also discovered this combination as well. Though, I'll be clear, if it doesn't work out for Markov, both Jacques and I will be happy there are options this season.




Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier

Canadiens Season Preview: Outgoing Defencemen

Finished with the forwards, it's time to move on to the important parts of the team. First up the defenders.

As I mentioned with the forward group, evaluating this year's team requires a bit of a retrospective glance. As such, I've put together a brief piece all about the outgoing defencemen from the 2008-09 season.

I should note that I am using the same pie charts to pick apart the defencemen as I did for the forwards (the legend can be found here). However, in the place of breakdowns of goals and assists and things by time, PPG and GWG, I decided to take a look at some statistics I cooked up from more raw numbers at NHL.com that better reflect the skills I would like my defencemen to aspire to (Hits/60, Blocked shots/60, Giveaways/60, Takeaways/60 and the difference between those last two). Hope you enjoy.


Mathieu Schneider

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (ATL/MTL)	67	9	23	32	-12	3.03	5.03	1.75	2.09	+0.34	64
07-08 (ANA)	65	12	27	39	+22	3.23	2.32	1.41	1.45	+0.04	50
06-07 (DET)	68	11	41	52	+12	2.92	3.07	2.32	0.67	-1.65	66

Even-strength profile
	Above average offense at even strength Below average defence at even strength Among bottom 20% for GA at even strength Neutral CORSI: +0.2

Legend

Losing Schneider is a funny feeling. Although the statistics do tell me that he played for the Canadiens last season, it was such a short stint, at such a weird time, that it almost seems hard to believe. He will certainly be missed as an offensive producer (his 30+ points season in, season out) for his age is impressive.

The other part of Schneider's game, the defence, is something that is harder to assess. While he had more takeaways than giveaways last season, and is consistently respectable in that regard, he nevertheless stood on the ice for nearly 3 goals for every 60 minutes of play (or a goal a game). The likely story is that Mathieu gets caught up the ice, just like many a forward, while trying to maintain his impressive offensive out put.

If Schneider weren't 40 years old, I feel that he would definitely be back. Instead, Gainey opted for a similar player with a few years to spare in Spacek. At the very least, Schneider taught Gainey that he needed a player like him.


Mike Komisarek

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	66	2	9	11	E	8.42	9.13	3.92	0.93	-3.00	121
07-08 (MTL)	75	4	13	17	+9	10.06	10.47	2.57	1.51	-1.06	101
06-07 (MTL)	82	4	15	19	+7	9.42	5.58	3.46	1.67	-1.79	96

Even-strength profile
	Decent offense at even strength Average GA at even strength Near league worst chances allowed at even strength Negative CORSI: -7.3

Legend

I've been giving Komisarek some flak recently, and I've been feeling some resistance from his fans. But you know what? This off-season, I have the stats on my side. Komisarek had a truly awful 2008-09 campaign, and it's a wonder he got a raise, let alone two offers for him to be paid among the defensive elite of the league.

On the surface, much of Komi's stats were quite rosy. After all, he was in the league leaders for hits and blocked shots again. Though he didn't contribute offensively, his +/- was even. What's my problem, right? Well, it's when you delve a little that you find the truth. To start with, the basic stat we've been trotting out (the Corsi number, which shows total chances for minus those against) is negative, and not hovering around zero either.

His giveaway numbers from last season were atrocious, as well. In all he gave away the puck 89 times, which made for nearly 4 giveaways for every 60 minutes on the ice – the worst among all defencemen with more than 15 games of play. As if to show just how bad a season he was having, he did not make up for his giveaways at all. His paltry 21 takeaways amounted to less than one every three games for him. The difference between the two was again league worst for players with more than 15 games. Maybe I am wrong, but I expect the occasional positive turnover to come from a hit he makes, to see hundreds of hits result in so few takeaways confirms what I'd been saying all along – he started merely hitting for the sake of it.

Perhaps the most telling thing is how he made his partner into a worse player at both ends. Markov with any other partner (mostly Gorges) last year was a 2.8 GF/60 and a 2.3 GA/60 player. With Mike, his numbers suffered significantly to make him a 2.4 GF/60 and 2.7 GA/60 player (a negative plus/minus to boot).

Well that was last year. A bad one indeed. But players have come back from worse, haven't they? And, Mike did have a good season the year before. His hits and blocked shots stats reaching impressive double digits in average.

Can he be replaced? Well the 2008-09 Komisarek does not need replacing, thank you. His influence on the team (certainly on the ice) was not something to cling to. If you mean the 2007-08 Komisarek, then it's harder. I certainly think that in bringing Paul Mara who steadily occupies the middle ground of Komisarek's wild fluctuation should help us see off our memories of #8.


Francis Bouillon

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	54	5	4	9	-7	8.22	3.71	2.16	1.01	-1.15	53
07-08 (MTL)	74	2	6	8	+9	7.85	5.42	1.68	1.03	-0.65	61
06-07 (MTL)	62	3	11	14	-10	7.82	4.81	3.43	1.32	-2.11	52

Even-strength profile
	Average to below average offensive output at even strength Below average defence at even strength Negative CORSI: -2.8

Legend

While others were grabbing the headlines for their futility, Francis was turning in a quietly terrible season last year as well. 3.00 GA/60 is never something you want to see from any player, let alone one who spent significant time as a 4th/5th defenceman on the team. And his negative plus/minus and Corsi did not offer any excuses for the little man.

While we should definitely miss his spirit and his hitting, I think that for this time, Frank's trip to Nashville from Montreal should be permanent. I think that Bouillon, despite that nice blip in 2007-08, is indeed going in to the twilight of his career. No longer can he win the foot races, no longer does he surprise with his hip checks. Replacing Frank emotionally may be hard, but the play he was bringing to the team? O'Byrne should handle it.


Patrice Brisebois

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	62	5	13	18	-3	2.74	4.20	3.28	0.85	-2.43	19
07-08 (MTL)	43	3	8	11	-2	2.40	3.32	3.07	1.24	-1.82	26
06-07 (COL)	37	1	10	11	-5	2.34	3.28	2.06	1.41	-0.65	22

Even-strength profile
	Average to above average offense at even strength Average to below average defence at even strength Negative CORSI: -3.5

Legend

Ding, dong, the witch... There won't be too much gloating this time, because look where it got us before. When it comes to Brisebois, I have learned never to underestimate his deft ability to convince Bob Gainey he is not a waste of cap space.

To be fair to Brisebois, the last two seasons he actually played like a semi-adequste 6th/7th defenceman. His offensive contributions were above average and his defensive blunders were strategically limited through selective deployment. He can be proud of his reclamation in Montreal too, where he proved upon his comeback that he actually was in the group of 170-210 best defencemen in the NHL. It was a conclusion we would not have accepted back in 2007.

Even so, replacing him is something I will relish as a fan because whereas Patrice's best gift to us was not to make a huge mistake on a shift, we now get a chance to look at players who aspire to more. With all those defencemen in the pipeline, another season of Patrice would have been unforgivable.


Doug Janik

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	Hits/60	BkS/60	GvA/60	TkA/60	Gv:Tk	PIM
08-09 (DAL/MTL)	15	0	1	1	-3	3.10	6.20	2.33	1.94	-0.39	10
07-08 (TB)	61	1	3	4	-3	3.48	4.64	1.79	0.84	-0.95	45

Doug Janik, we hardly knew thee. Even putting Doug Janik in here was a last minute decision. as you can see, I didn't bother making him a chart.

While Janik was not really a Hab for more than a few days, he was a contributor. IN his final act, Doug helped the Habs by having his rights act as a trade piece in the Scott Gomez deal. I'm not sure who asked for that, Gainey or Sather, but it'll be on the trivia for years to come if the Alaskan were ever to lead this team past the second round.

Janik, for his part is actually quite a good player. As you can see from his stats he runs a tighter ship than say Komisarek (though with less hits). A depth defender he is though, and he's already moved onto his next stop in Detroit. We wish him luck.



Unlike the departing forwards, the departing defencemen don't have that whole "rip the heart out of the team" feel to them. Yes, they were part of the upheaval, but 2 were never really here, 2 were past their due date and the other – well he was offered the same money and left, so sod him.

In the end, nothing that was lost from the back end of the 2008-09 team was irreplaceable. In fact, many of the subtractions in and of themselves are positive. And, considering the signings, it looks like Gainey has upgraded here. I'll let you in on what we got in the upcoming days from the statistical side of things.




Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier

Habs Choose Prospects To Proceed With

It's very easy to look at an NHL training camp as a negative process. Many more players are invited to camp than ever could fit on a team bus, let alone a team sheet. Cuts are inevitable and so are phrases like "not making the cut", "shipped back to junior", etc.

In reality, training camp produces just as many positive stories as negative ones. And while it's easy to look at which step the players stumbled at, it's also useful to see how many they progressed through and how many more that was than original expectation.

Last night was the time the Canadiens chose to trim their roster to a more regular-sized group, with 31 players remaining in camp. Yes, 19 players were cut from the 27 that were in camp, but the optimist would say that 8 of the 27 actually excelled to pass this stage. Within the 17 there are also success stories, simply because they must have made the coaches and management consider retention – even when that possibility a year, a month or even 10 days ago was a far-off thought.


The eight

When you take away the 23 regular roster players: that is 2 goalies, 7 defencemen and 14 forwards by my estimation, you are left with 8 players hanging around with less than a fortnight to go until opening night. At this stage, you'd have to think that some of them actually have a chance at making the big team.

By my count the eight are:

1) Curtis Sanford
2) Mathieu Carle
3) Alex Hanry
4) Yannick Weber
5) Kyle Chipchura
6) Olivier Fortier
7) Ben Maxwell
8) Tom Pyatt

The first thing that stands out from this list is that players who've auditioned in the NHL before are making their cases for another chance. Curtis Sanford has made it clear he is the #3 (at worst) in this organization and will be the first call up for sickness or injury. Yannick Weber has parlayed his NHL regular season and playoff experience (and a decent camp) into a longer look – somewhat overcoming the hype machine of PK Subban. And, both Chipchura and Maxwell have done enough to hold their positions in the pecking order it seems.

In addition to those names, there are Alex Henry and Olivier Fortier, both of whom are injured. Essentially cut, I suppose, it may be the Canadiens have just kept these two players around so they can be treated by the expensive physios that grace the bowels of the Bell Centre. Who knows, there may be more to it.

That leaves 2 names among the eight who present somewhat as surprises.


Mathieu Carle

It's a bit of serendipity for Mathieu Carle to have an extended look at this year's camp. Last season, as a possible candidate for injury-time call up, or even for a short trial stint, he took an injury in camp. The result was that he was a de facto cut, even though he remained officially with the Habs until late October when Higgins' place had to be made.

This training camp, Mathieu has once again availed himself relatively well. By that, I mean he's been a top 9 body at the back. On the plus side, Mathieu has played in two wins and one loss. What's more he avoided playing in the nightmarish game against the Sens in Ottawa. He's definitely has some hiccoughs, as his plus/minus shows – and he created the giveaway that led to the Bruins winning goal; however, in large part he outperformed his rivals to be retained (Subban, Benoit and Belle).

The chances of him staying on much longer than this will depend on the next game and the one after that. I suspect the Canadiens would be willing to hold onto a right-hand shot if they feel the chance of playing a game is real. In the real world, though, his next two games are an audition to be first in line for a call up from Hamilton.


Tom Pyatt

While McDonagh is working on his homework in Wisconsin, Valentenko is enjoying his life in Russia and Doug Janik is already out of New York and in Detroit, Montreal in the meantime is carrying 2 centres in their final 31 from the June 29th trade.

If you would have told me in June, or even yesterday morning, that Tom Pyatt would be kicking around in camp as one of the final 17 healthy forwards, I'd have been mildly shocked. He doesn't have the NHL experience of a player like Darche or Glumac, nor the Hamilton familiarity of Trotter, Desharnais or White. He doesn't even have the glamour of being a first or second rounder that Gainey is trying to post-rationalize like Latendresse, Chipchura and Maxwell. No, Tom's come in well and truly under the radar and bumped himself way up the depth chart it seems.

Pyatt's that interesting player in the Gomez trade that perhaps got lost in Montreal translation. While we were all looking at Gomez, and the price we paid in cash and players, we forgot to really appreciate the other pieces returned. I would liken it to the time we got a back-up goalie from the Kings when we traded Garon for Bonk, or the defenceman we swooped when Rivet was traded for picks. Certainly a potential NHLer, not entirely silly to call him a replacement for Higgins (one day).

I previewed him briefly yesterday, so I won't do it again. While I trawled a bit for info on Tom, I found this great piece from a Rangers reporter last season. Have a read if you're interested in the mystery man. Here's a taster:

“We love his skating,” Renney said. “He needs to push the envelope from a physical perspective, which we believe he is very capable of.”

Renney doesn’t seem to think that Pyatt’s size will hold him back from excelling in the NHL. In fact, he even compared Pyatt’s physique to that of Rangers' rookie, Nigel Dawes, who had a remarkable first season on Broadway.

This camp, Pyatt has done a lot to back up the expectations shared by Renney and others. In his first game (Game #2), he played a very minor role indeed. He did nothing to really standout, but played a 4th line role in a win with some pretty awful wingers – so that's a plus. He was back in the lineup for the return to form game against the Bruins (and even knocked over Chara – see pushing the envelope more). Then, in his reward game and final try-out game, Pyatt fully impressed – even getting PK duty and play on all kinds of good lines.


Of course, he'll have to keep that up to further upset the status quo (Gainey doesn't like to change his long laid plans). But if he does, what's to say that Pyatt couldn't be breathing down the necks of Metropolit, Stewart, Laraque, Chipchura and others.


Pacioretty, D'Agostini, O'Byrne

Others that have had a positive camp include these three, who have ensured that NHL experience and training camp moments form this year have combined to fend off any pretneders for their positions. Pacioretty and O'Byrne in particular seem to be homing in on more permanent positions.

Pawning Kessel: Habs Rivals Equalize Talent Levels

A few weeks ago I wrote with glee about the way the Bruins were playing with fire as they looked set to lose Phil Kessel. Well, it's done now, they've gone and lost him – albeit with some hefty compensation.


On the other side of the trade sit the Toronto Maple Leafs, whose GM decided that 4 months was enough time to rebuild a non-existent farm system and has given up on drafting in the first round for a few years.

Who won the trade?

Well, technically, Toronto did. They got a 22-year-old 36 goalscorer for 3 chances at landing an 18-year-old future 36 goalscorer. When you consider Toronto's actual drafting record, where promising (to be adequate) defenceman Luke Schenn stands out as a beacon of excellence, then Burke looks even more like a genius.

Ridiculing the Bruin aside, Kessel is a big fish to land for anyone. And should he continue to produce anywhere near the level he has so far for the next decade of his career, then this is a massive move for the Leafs. Even if he simply maintains his 2008-09 production for the next 5 years, this trade is a win for Burke.

I say Burke because Kessel is an asset to the new GM, while those 3 draft picks likely never would have been. If an average GM has a lifespan of 5-6 years, then Brian Burke is right to concern himself with what will be happening in that term.

Burke won, Kessel won, but did Toronto?

This question is harder to answer. The consensus opinion seems to be that the answer to this question is still up in the air and probably will be right until the end of next season when we can see how Kessel plays and how those draft picks fall in the order.

An optimist would say that Toronto landed a marquis player and someone to anchor their youthful offense for years. Someone with a more pessimistic (even realistic) slant on things may say they pulled out of the rebuilding mode very prematurely. Because nothing very positive happened until the 2008 draft, the Leafs essentially landed Schenn and Kadri along with a few college alums (who are getting far too much shine put on them from Burke, after all they’re all glorified Brock Trotters).

Yes, technically the Leafs did add young talent, but not to be missed is that teams like Pittsburgh and Washington already have better young talent, and the Islanders and Thrashers have added better talent than the Leafs. By pulling up light on the rebuild, has Burke taken a perennial 8th place battler and made another perennial 8th place battler? He certainly has risked that on Kessel’s progress.


Boston lost, but not this week

Though Toronto must be winners here, to say Boston lost this trade is disingenuous. They lost a long time ago when they priced Kessel out of their salary structure, yes. But to them Kessel had flown, so any return was welcome. To turn any return into two potentially very high first rounders and a second.

If I were a Bruins fan, (after patting myself on the back 300 times) I would be happy with my GM in so far as the trade goes. After all, Kessel was lost. He could have been lost to the Hurricanes or the Penguins, but instead Chiarelli squeezed a extra first pick out of it – and made sure the picks came from a pretty average-to-bad team (not a conference contender, even with Kessel).

The fact remains for Bruins fans, however, that their team is worse by a fair distance today than it was 4 months ago. Gone is the only innately talented goalscorer on the squad. Left is the hope that Ryder will repeat his very best, Wheeler will somehow develop and Lucic will be more than a teenager obsessed with creating a reputation for himself. It’ll be tough. The ripples of no Kessel will be felt, and the likelihood of a 30-odd game point streak happening again is slim.


Rivals are winners too

Rivals of these two teams are on balance also all winners. As mentioned, the Bruins are worse, and will have trouble repeating as they try to milk perfection from Thomas and Krejci again. Toronto are better, but being bad to begin with means they’re still well in the mix.

The biggest winners here are probably the Caps and the Penguins, who both now stand head and shoulders above their Eastern rivals in scoring and explosive potential. Teams like the Hurricanes and Devils also win as they now boast equal, if not greater talent to the Black and Gold.

Finally, teams in the Northeast will benefit from a Boston that’s more beatable and a lot easier to defend against for everyone. It should offset an extra Toronto win as a result of Kessel’s 60 games. The Habs among them, who never cared what Toronto looked like anyway (and would always allow 6 goals an outing to them), will like that Boston won’t have a player that can pick on Carey Price’s weak glove at will – perhaps a season sweep isn’t on the cards again this year.


The Mike Cammalleri effect

After famously failing to land his Toronto phenom on draft day, Brian Burke must surely have been looking to do something with his forward group on July 1 (else he's a much worse GM than even I thought). Rumours at the time led one to believe that the focus from Toronto's end would be turned towards Ontario native Mike Cammalleri.

Well we all know who won that race. But perhaps what we didn't appreciate at the time was the effect that it would have on our divisional rivals.

But Cammalleri is older you say?

Well yes he is. However, both he and Kessel are signed to 5-year contracts, not lifetime ones. Both have already shown their willingness (or drive) to change teams and neither looks like a lifelong anything. So when it comes down to it, the fact that Cammalleri might be 32 when his contract retires and Kessel 27 is pretty meaningless. Both will be playing some of their prime years with the teams as 30-goalscorers with aspirations of more.

Consider for a second that July 1 Brian Burke delivers 39-goal man Cammalleri to his team's faithful. He would have upgraded his forward corps (just as with Kessel), but for free. Burke would have retained his draft picks.

Instead, Gainey signs Cammalleri and creates the need in Toronto for Kessel (credit to those who signed Havlat, Hossa and Gaborik as well). His quick action for once on July 1, has led us to this trade where two division rivals both make significant sacrifice and take on risk. What Toronto is rejoicing over now could have been had for free two months ago. By creating the need for Kessel in Toronto, other GMs (including Gainey) also ensured that Phil’s lasting desire to depart would be met by a willing bidder – thereby ensuring Boston would be a weaker team this season.

Perhaps it wasn’t all as calculated as that. Whether it was or wasn’t, that is what has now happened. That is what we can now quietly smirk about.

Canadiens Season Preview: Prospects Up Front

While I don't have the data, the time or the energy to continue reviewing each player down the Canadiens depth chart to the same extent as the roster players, I thought it would at least be useful to list who's next in line and add some thoughts and useful info for those that are interested.

I'll begin at the top, closest to the NHL and then proceed down the lineup. I should note that I am keeping those players who have no chance of playing in Montreal this season whatsoever in a separate pile for now – even though they mostly represent our top futures among the forwards.


Potential call-ups

1) Ben Maxwell

First in line for a call up seem to be Ben Maxwell. Personally, I'm not sure what to make of this player. From junior to the AHL, he certainly hasn't shown a desire or ability to dominate the play. And those who say he's big must certainly mean big relative to the Canadiens smallest players, since his height is a mere 6' and his weight must be below league average.

Either someone at Hockey's Future is really high on Maxwell (yet unable to express it in their writing) or the Canadiens are starting to scrape the barrel with prospects, because he's listed as the #2 prospect in the entire organization.

At best, I think Maxwell could be a solid second liner one day provided he can gel with a talent on the wing. For this season, I don't think he'll be given the chance to gel with anyone in the NHL. But he'd do well to think about that in the AHL – especially if Pacioretty is the guy.


2) Mathieu Darche

Second in line for a call up in my opinion will be Mathieu Darche. With the team as it is, Darche looks like a really smart signing from Gainey and BriseBois. It provides the team a player that can be brought up with likely waiver clearance that not only has NHL experience, but also in playing the commuter role.

At 33, the former McGill Redman is probably nearing the end of his NHL road; and one would think that his production will decline given time. Even so, Darche, if recalled, would give a credible two-way game on the fourth line (maybe even third) with the potential for a goal here and there.

Even without a call up, Darche's value on the Redmen alum team (oops, I mean Bulldogs) will be tangible. He knows the coaches, he has NHL stries to tell and he has pursued a career with some success while pushing through adversity. In short, he has character.


3) Ryan White

I've been noticing subtel name dropping going on quite a bit from coach Jacques. While he has nice things to say about almost everyone at this point, it seems like Ryan White has been singled out for some special praise.

Though he's coming from a long way back (see rough season in Hamilton), Ryan actually looks to me like a better bet than Maxwell. In fact, it looks to me like he's been sold short quite a bit along the way. For on thing, he has better WHL numbers than the supposedly visionary Maxwell. For another, at the same height his frame isn't just projectable to 200 lbs, it already carries that many – he's already bigger. The best quote to describe is this one, I thought, as it explains how people don't expect much going in, but somehow (without explanation) he impresses:

"He’s not a great physical specimen, he’s not necessarily in great physical condition, but when we put him on the ice, he does nothing but win battles,” said Hitmen GM and head coach Kelly Kisio.

I don't expect Ryan to make the team right away, because his Hamilton numbers do lead to questions. However, if he starts well on the farm he could be an option come mid-winter.


4) Mikael Johansson

A Swede drafted by the Wings must be worth taking a chance on. He certainly has some attributes that make him an interesting prospect. However, in between his drafting and his signing in Montreal 6 years later, the Wings were right to note a lack of meteoric progress. That's why I have to believe that this season has been bookmarked as a trial for Mikael in the North American game, because Niklas Sundstrom II is not a player the Habs need just now.

Nonetheless, his talent and production in Sweden do count for something and put him higher on the list than the next tier of borderline talent. Because of his size, if and when he makes it to the NHL could well depend on who in the current lineup needs to be replaced. Though he might fit on a line with Latendresse and Cammalleri, it's harder to imagine him getting the call to centre Laarque and Moen.


5) Tom Pyatt

If you remember one thing about Tom Pyatt, remember this: he played for Team Canada twice, winning 2 gold medals.

That alone isn't that meaningful, but it does mean someone somewhere thinks he has something to offer, and not only that, he can deliver on the expectation with wins. Usually a Habs prospect plays in the WJC and we go gaga for years after (see Price, Carey), so his inconspicuous arrival is funny in that way. Perhaps it shows the kind of player he is, he did after all win the OHL's "Lady Byng" in 2007.

Hockey's future describes his talent:

Heart and soul player with good offensive instincts and good hands. Can play both ways, but his size and strength has thus far made for a difficult adjustment to professional play.

That quote, together with his CV makes him stand out among our also rans. I don't expect many NHL games from Pyatt, but get the feeling that if he were called up, he'd be capable.


6) Brock Trotter

We're getting near the niche players now, but Brock is not one of them. By all accounts, Brock is a hard worker, plays hard and can adapt to many situations. He would be an ideal call up if not for being such a small guy – though I wouldn't flinch at adding another 5'10" player, I think the tolerance of more conventional pundits (and I imagine coaches) has been tested already.

That said, Brock isn't really banging down the door to the NHL either, nor do I expect him to. His 2 seasons in the AHL now have been OK, but he has also allowed himself to be overtaken in the depth chart. I expect this undrafted player may have to get used to that again this season.


7) David Desharnais

As I listened to fan game reviews yesterday, I'd have thought that David Desharnais was the next coming of Martin St Louis. But you know what, it doesn't really add up for me. While I'm sure he must have oodles of talent to score so many point in junior, it remains that he only actually scored 24 goals in the AHL.

While you have to credit his perseverance, the drop in production a AHL level from prolific to adequate doesn't raise the right flags for the NHL evaluators. Still, you never know – a rare chance taken could lead to great things – I'm just not betting on it today.


8) Andrew Conboy

Notorious for making the AHL simply because he got booted out of the NCAA. Not a great start, unless that is, you're hoping to be an intimidator at the NHL level.

At this point in his career, I don't think Andrew could really be aspiring to be much else, do you? His numbers when he made the jump to college certainly took most hope of the power moniker being attached to forward in his case. Still, his 9 goals in 14 playoff games in 2007-08 for Omaha are the one beacon of light here.


9) Mike Glumac

Career AHLer, I'm afraid. Still, is a useful player to have in Hamilton for his AHL prowess alone. And, should all 8 of these guys and more go down with flu or something, wouldn't be a disaster in the NHL.


10) Ryan Russell

The original Tom Pyatt. His progression is steady in the minor pro ranks, but you have to wonder where the progression is leading him. At this point, he looks far more a future Mike Glumac than he does a future Canadien. However, because of the nature of the 4th line in the NHL, his combination of skating, hard work and AHL hands could make him an able stand in.


11) Eric Neilson

No player has gone more out of his way to make an impression this fall in camp than Neilson. With the Canadiens, though, his sole purpose would be to fight. And while Gainey and co. seem to be wavering over how they feel about fighting, the fact that Laraque is still around spells no call up for Neilson. Should that change, then he'd have a lifeline.


12) Olivier Fortier

In my opinion, Fortier has no chance of playing an NHL game whatsoever this season. Though he won the Guy Carbonneau trophy, he's no Carbonneau yet. For one thing, Carbonneau had NHL calibre scoring and skating potential at junior level. His conversion to defensive specialist was abetted by these facets of his game. For Fortier, he's already gone down that route in junior, which is a red flag for me (see career, Chipchura).

What's more, his defensive game hasn't been tested against anyone other than what amounts to forwards from the weakest league in Canada. Hamilton will have to be a testing/training ground for him. It wouldn't hurt if he turned in some key offensive contributions along the way to make him look more than a next-generation Metropolit.


13) Dany Masse

Missing camp is a killer for Masse, and I'm sure he knows it. His evaluation, and thus promotion prospects, have been put on hold for now. And that goes for me too – since it's hard to judge how an overage junior on a league best team will fare against better players and goalies in both the AHL and NHL.


14) JT Wyman

Almost off the books, I'm sure. Wyman may once have been a prospect, he's now AHL filler. He should go the way of Duncan Milroy and Jonathan Ferland by the end of this season barring what would need to be a miracle turnaround and injection of talent.


Not at camp

1) Andreas Engqvist

NHL ready, but contractually tied, I'd keep an eye on Andreas' stats in Sweden if you want to get a look into a player that should figure in the Canadiens plans within a year or two.


2) Danny Kristo

From the sounds of it, Kristo has the offensive skills and speed to play in the NHL. The only things stopping him at the moment are a commitment to his NCAA club North Dakota and a few late signings in Montreal to fill the roster.


3) Steve Quailer

Qualier, to me, is the unheralded Canadiens draft pick. Good numbers in the USHL, followed by a decent start as a rookie at Northeastern have jumped Qualier into my sights, and I'm sure those of the team brass. If Latendresse doesn't pan out as a power forward, Qualier is the next one in line to try to take the mantle.


4) Louis Leblanc

Hard not to be impressed with Louis' career. I'm sure the coverage he's received already, and the coverage his Harvard career will get means I can forego a big preview here. I'll say this, if Plekanec still looks like a third liner next spring, then Louis might be having some talks about how far he wants to take his university education.


5) Alexander Avtsyn

A great draft pick with a lot of points in junior. He's still got a lot to prove at his next level to show he can ever play for the Habs, let alone be mentioned in the same breath as Ovechkin.


6) Joonas Nattinen

Another big centre who could get some career advice next spring depending on how the year goes for everyone. His career could go anywhere from here, so let's just sit back and cross our fingers.


7) Maxim Trunev

"Our Euro scouts describe him as a combination of the two Kostitsyn brothers,” Timmins explained. “He was the MVP of the Mac’s midget tournament earlier this year in Calgary and he’s one of the youngest players in the draft.”

Timmins doesn't exactly have a 100% record, but some of his punts have come off (Mark Streit, Halak). To play this season again with Severstal Cherepovets, he is listed as a player to watch in the KHL by Hockey's Future.


8) Gabriel Dumont

The last player I will go out on a limb to note is Gabriel Dumont. He's already been demoted back to junior from the Canadiens camps. Talked up as a future Talbot/Lapierre type player, this season it will be critical for him to succeed on the Voltigeurs squad with a lesser cast. I think that if he does that, there will be no doubt about him reaching Montreal one day.

Canadiens Season Preview: Remaining NHL Forwards

The remains of the day:

Laraque, Chipchura, Pacioretty

Georges Laraque

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	33	0	2	2	-6	0	0	0.00	0.47	15	0.0	61
07-08 (PIT)	71	4	9	13	E	0	2	0.44	1.43	29	13.8	141
06-07 (PHO/PIT)	73	5	19	24	+4	1	0	0.43	2.04	44	11.4	70

Even-strength profile
	Fighter offense (i.e., virtually none) at even strength Above average in preventing GA at even strength Among league worst at preventing chances against even strength Awful CORSI: -15.4

Legend


Stats notes

I don't have as much to say about Georges Laraque as I might about a first liner here. For one thing, his statistics are terrible. He puts the brakes on most offensive moves and has a terrible Corsi. The one thing I would pull out from these stats is that Jacques Martin must use Georges less, because with the amount of shots against he is on the ice for, it is unlikely he'll turn in another season for 2.23 GA/60.

To estimate Georges only real value to the team (eliminating chippy play from the opponents) would be a difficult undertaking. But, I think we all saw enough from simple observation to know the intimidation he offers, if it is there at all, is not significant.


Tobalev on Laraque:

Signing Laraque was quite possibly one of Gainey’s worse moves, which in itself is saying a lot. Georges, quite simply, is a pre-lockout (maybe even pre-1990s) type hockey player. The trouble he has skating and handling the puck is not nearly made up for by his 5-10 staged yearly boxing matches. The worst part is that that when he fights those players he deems worthy opponents he doesn’t really do much. I haven’t seen him really punish anyone unless you call hugging a guy and trying to get his shirt over his head a punishment. 2 assists in 33 games and no fights that were momentum-swingers meant we essentially played with 19 (18 when Patrice played) players for almost half the season. His money and roster spot could be much better used for players like Chipchura, Weber or Pacioretty.

However, Gainey’s well-documented fear of being proven wrong may just keep Laraque off the waiver-wire this season and in Montreal. He will thus be there to play a style that no one (fans and fellow players) really cares for anymore. A fight based on emotion or frustration (aka a real fight) is something you won’t see from Laraque this year, which is why Sergei is a way better fighter. In an ideal world, he gets sent down (and even claimed by someone else) and we rid ourselves of the remaining two years of his contract. Like I said, though, Gainey is as likely to do that as he would be to start Halak is back-to-back games. Look for Georges to post up 1-3 points, 20-50 games and about 10-15 x 5 meaningless penalty minutes.


Where Laraque will start 2009-10: On the ice vs. the Leafs

Where Laraque will end 2009-10: On the reserve (injured or healthy)

Points: 2 G, 4 A, 6 Pts



Kyle Chipchura

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	13	0	3	3	-6	0	0	0.00	1.35	5	0.0	5
07-08 (MTL)	36	4	7	11	-1	0	0	0.59	1.61	36	11.1	10

Even-strength profile
	Bottom tier offense at even strength Bottom tier defence defence at even strength Truly awful CORSI: -18.4

Legend


Stats notes

There was no worse player on the Canadiens last year than Kyle, not even Price in Edmonton. The statistics I show you here are not at the level required to get an NHL call back, not even close – it seems everything he did last season in those 13 games hurt the team.

However, there may be a few positives here:

1) Low PIMs
IN 49 NHL games now, Kyle has amassed a mere 15 PIMs (and we know that 5 of those minutes were coincident for fighting). It's quite disciplined for a rookie and could be one attribute that eventually wins him another try.

2) His average stats last season were taken from a small sample
This is a bit of post-rationalization (excuse making), but Kyle needs it. That pie of blue and purple is hideous and needs to be banished, but one must think that just as D'Agostini's goalscoring levelled out eventually, so too would have Chipchura's defensive largesse. The season previous and Hamilton do provide some basis to suggest that could happen.


Last season, when Kyle eventually got another chance to skate with the Canadiens, the 2004 draft pick needed to make an impression. His stats clearly show that he did – but not the right one. Another chance this season, and he must banish the purple, and most especially that hideous turquoise which shows him to be a defensive liability. It's not a good look for an aspiring shutdown forward.


Tobalev on Chipchura

Kyle was drafted, way back when, as a defensive forward and I for one am not ready to give up on that vision. He was the type of guy (Captain of Canada, well-spoken, etc.) that seemed to fit into the type of team the Habs were (and are for that matter) trying to build.

So why then has it taken so long for Chips to make it in the NHL? Why hasn’t he been given more chances?

The answer is that he has been given his chances, over and over and the bottom line is that he has failed to deliver; but it’s not entirely his fault. I trace it back to confidence, both his and possibly the coaches’ confidence in him. Coaches ask young goalies to tend the net, young PP point-men to play on the first unit and young scorers to play on a top scoring line. It is, therefore, quite unfair that Kyle has never really gotten to show his true worth on the 3rd line as a true defensive forward. Each, and every time, he gets called up it is to serve as an injury replacement and to do spot-work on the 4th line. If we don’t give him chances he’ll, quite simply, join the long list of ‘could’ve’ been prospects on the Habs. I for one am willing to give him a place this year and a proper chance. I mean is that too much to ask for a guy who put up 35 points (14, 21) in 51 games in Hamilton and who was a mind-blowing +28 for the season?

Kyle will play in the NHL this season, but how much (and even where) may still be in question. The log-jam of ‘defensive’ veteran forwards in the system, to me, means that his chances will be slim. You have to believe, however, that this is his last shot with Montreal and if he doesn’t have a good first half (Hamilton or Montreal) we may never hear from him again. I do, though, see him playing between 30-50 games this year, but his numbers will depend on where he plays. So, in reality his NHL (at least in MTL) future will depend on injuries to players like Gomez, Plekanec and Lapierre - not the way you want to make it as a permanent player in this league, but at this point he’ll have to take what he can get. If he does see considerable time on a top-3 line look for him to get 10-20 points and to be a positive (likely over +10) type player. He may even, this year, take steps to becoming a future leader (even captain) on this team.


Where Chipchura will start 2009-10: Pressbox

Where Chipchura will end 2009-10: Pressbox, with 40 odd games to his name

Points: 5 G, 9 A, 14 Pts


Max Pacioretty

NHL Season	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PPG	GWG	G/60	Pts/60	Sh	S%	PIM
08-09 (MTL)	34	3	8	11	-3	1	0	0.42	1.54	57	5.3	27

Even-strength profile
	Above average offensive output at even strength Top tier chances created at even strength Bottom tier chances prevented at even strength Negative CORSI: -6.7

Legend


Stats notes

Max is the player down the bottom here who actually didn't merit the position. His stats were a mix of very good, with some areas of concern (though not many):

1) Favourable offensive results when he's on
You can't dispute the red side of the graph. When Max is on the ice, his lines make up better than average NHL offensive lines. On the Canadiens, this particularly applied to Kovalev and Plekanec who enjoyed his company.

2) High events (chances) player
Judging by the bottom half of the pie, Max is the type of player who may be on the ice for some of the most exciting periods of end to end hockey we all love. Easy to say as fans, but is that the type of player Jacques Martin will love?

3) Not second line goalscoring
Though his linemates may have put up 2nd line numbers while he was on, max for the most part did not. 3 goals with the centres he got to play with wasn't great – even worse when you consider it was actually 1 goal in his last 30 games. His 5.3% shooting percentage was also not very top line.


Pacioretty's stats, while prettier than most, are still perhaps not at the level they should be at for a promotion to a top 2 line on a team we hope will do something. Training camp will have to be very impressive from him if he hopes to unseat Guillaume's 1.00+ G/60, Sergei's versatility or D'Agostini's raw numbers in the NHL.


Tobalev on Pacioretty

Remember how we all thought Max was great when he came up around Christmas? Remember those great numbers he put up when playing with Kovalev? Does it shock you then when I tell you that he scored 3 goals in 34 games? Is it just me, or did people get a bit too excited about this kid? He didn’t even play that well in Hamilton when you think about it – he only scored 6 goals down there. He did get quite a few assists on the farm, but what we really need for our top 2 lines are guys who can score, not guys who can exclusively pass. The good thing is that he is still 20 and he only has one way to go: up. I am not writing him off at all, but I am not nearly as excited as I would be if we had a legitimate offensive prospect right at this moment.

I think that Max’s season will be very much like last year in that he will split his time between Montreal and Hamilton. He isn’t quite good enough to be a lock with the Habs yet, but is definitely in the mix as one of our best young forwards. His numbers all depend on how many games he plays in Montreal, and scoring once every five games is something that I think is within his grasp. It would be good for him if he could find a niche on our third line again as he did last year. His 2-way play does actually impress me (more so than Gui’s or D’Agostini’s), so it is conceivable that he will be groomed as a permanent 3rd-line solution. Whatever may happen at the start of the year he just has to work hard because eventually he will get his chance, but if he fails to impress this season in Montreal, he will have more chances in the future.


Where Pacioretty will start 2009-10: Hamilton Bulldogs

Where Pacioretty will end 2009-10: Montreal Canadiens

Points: 7 G, 10 A, 17 Pts



If I'm a coach/GM, these 3 are not in the starting night lineup. I classed them all as reserves, but I witheld Pacioretty so that he could hone his skills in Hamilton, not sit in the pressbox in Montreal. Laraque, for me, is an inferior option to Stewart anyway. And when you add Moen to that line, the combination willing to move around a bit more makes more sense to me. Chipchura simply played himself out of the running last season. He will need to grab the bull by the horns on the first injury replacement duty to win back his favour. And, Max, as I explained is only excluded for his own development concerns – half a season, or the whole year, in Hamilton should allow him to learn to star at a different level and help him grow his confidence for his next NHL stint (where he'll be asked to score on more than 1/20 shots).




Statistics adapted from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, Olivier