Richards, Carter. Gone, gone.
This good news for the Habs is ostensibly bad news for the Flyers and their fans. Richards and Carter were a big part of the Flyers success and a huge reason the team ever got close to a Stanley Cup without a goalie.
But that's where it all goes wrong isn't it?
Without a goalie.
For most teams, not having a good goalie is a problem. For Philadelphia it's a brain-devouring complex. That's why instead of applying a bit of patience and recognizing what a good thing they may have pulled from thin air in Bobrovsky, they went out and did what they always did and signed, signed, signed.
Bryzgalov is a good goalie, don't get me wrong. I like him, I like his chances in Philly. But you will note that Anaheim let him go, that Phoenix let him go, that Phoenix doesn't have any Cups.
A goalie simply can't do it all. Let me rephrase that, a goalie not named Thomas or Hasek can't do it all. A team needs to put talent at all positions and use their salary allowance wisely to do that.
Philly's real problems
A lot of articles on yesterday's trades say things like "Holmgren managed to unload Carter's long-term contract/Richards salary cap millstone".
I think these comments are way off the mark. Both players were paid in the $5 million range and both performed to the level of their salary, which in the world of guys paid that much means they were bargains.
What's more, the salary cap hasn't been going anywhere but up, even through the worst financial period in modern US/Canadian history. As the proportion that a $5 million salary takes up shrinks, the better a long-term deal for a producing player paid at that level looks.
Saying nothing about intangibles at all, I can firmly say that Richards and Carter were not the salary cap problems in Philadelphia. If anything, they were among the contracts that permitted them to spend with abandon at times.
The real problems in Philly come in at the back end.
The Pronger deal wasn't expensive at the time, but it was a gaffe to sign him long-term past his 35th birthday. This contract is central to their problem.
Timonen is another. If Price/Halak was a luxury, Pronger/Timonen was a bigger one. Both players are paid to be #1 Dmen, but the name implies there can only be one #1 Dman. The other became the most expensive second fiddle in the league.
And it didn't stop there. Rather than fill out a roster like everyone else in the league would with prospects and a couple of cheaper contracts at the back (to defend other teams' fourth lines), Holmgren put $3 million players at every hole.
The Flyers biggest cap problem was their luxury defense, which got them 7th best D in the East with 6 less GA than Florida.
Other than their $22 million defence corps, Philly also took on the dead weight contract of Kris Versteeg. In fact, they repeated their luxury buying attitude up front with a third line that included double millionaires all around.
Fix is temporary
Philly found a temporary fix for immediate cap space, but based on the Bryzgalov signing, it won't be used for prudent and conservative rebuilding. In fact, when the grossly overpaid forward comes in as the replacement for Carter/Richards, fans will most likely be wondering what these deals were for.
Habs news more encouraging
The Habs did better in the last couple of days with their signings and seem less likely to implode their plan and go schizophrenically down the garden path. While I'll always lament Gauthier for not getting in on action like Ville Leino or Andrej Meszaros, I at least admire his commitment to the plan he thought was working last spring. Holmgren on the other hand...
The Flyers moves do also serve the Habs well since this team was a chief rival and those two players were chief nemeses. Some fans will point to the danger of the rebuild for the Habs more distant future, but the contracts at the back, together with the quick trigger of Holmgren seem to provide the insurance that this team won't be a perennial problem.
I guess this whole thing just shows that making a cap mess will catch up with your team at some point. Chicago's mess cost them a lot, but they have a Cup to show for it. Philly, mere games away, just got a mess.
Friday, June 24, 2011
Beautiful Decision
Markov Locked Up 3 Years
There's not much more to say than my headline. Markov signed a three-year deal (allegedly at his previous salary).
This is great news for many reasons:
1) He's Markov: you know what we think of him
2) PK will have air to breathe, shoot like he did with less than a minute left in the season
3) $5.75 million from $64.5 million isn't that much to pay for a player of this calibre (the average player on a 23-man roster gets $2.8 million)
4) Emelin transition/staycation
5) There's no free agents to replace this guy, especially with Detroit also throwing money at the Rafalski hole
This is great news for many reasons:
1) He's Markov: you know what we think of him
2) PK will have air to breathe, shoot like he did with less than a minute left in the season
3) $5.75 million from $64.5 million isn't that much to pay for a player of this calibre (the average player on a 23-man roster gets $2.8 million)
4) Emelin transition/staycation
5) There's no free agents to replace this guy, especially with Detroit also throwing money at the Rafalski hole
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Canadiens Draft Primer
The draft is in a few days and the Canadiens need to be ready. Not that Pierre Gauthier couldn’t do this on his own, but just in case he does use this blog as his last minute cramming site, we thought it prudent to put a little effort into a preview for him.
As you know, we already highlighted the lessons that the Canadiens and their crack team need to take from their own draft history, combined with that of their rivals. Just in case they don’t have time to read that, we’ll just post the most important message here:
Don’t, for goodness sake, take another defensive defender in the first round!
That out of the way, we can get down to the serious business of the draft. The way I look at it, there are about 5 categories of players to look at for the first round of this draft (No it isn’t C, RW, LW, …). The categories come fromoff the top of my head painstaking research I have done into drafting over the past decade.
The first category of possible draftees are those that we’ll call Subban substitutes. They aren’t called Subban subs because they will all be as good as Subban – what do you think I’m that good at scouting I can predict NHL readiness from watching a bit of junior? No, they are called Subban subs because the only way we’ll be drafting these players is if we trade PK Subban (or someone of his stature) to the team ahead of us in line who would otherwise take one of them.
The second group of players are aptly called NAFWOPs or Not Available for Weber or Pouliot. Trading the players fans see as expendable may get something, but not these guys. It probably wouldn’t take a Subban to move up, but for all intents and purposes, the Habs aren’t getting a sniff of these NAFWOPs either.
The third category is consensus early picks. These players are highly rated by the media who either a) just watched the Bruins win the Cup and concluded that only a team exactly like the Bruins will ever in again or b) waited until the last minute and couldn’t figure out how to integrate North American and European and Skater and Goalie lists. These are big forwards who scored a lot of goals in the CHL (the minimum cut off for a lot is slipping these days, some guys here scored 20ish). These are players that should be available when the Canadiens pick because a) the media don’t have NHL jobs and b) Brian Burke can’t make all the picks.
The fourth category is the McGuire stunners. These players don’t get mentioned for some reason or another. See category three for media excuses, add drinking while compiling the list. In my opinion, the more stunned Pierre McGuire is by the pick, the better the pick probably is. The Blubbering Blusterer is no clairvoyant.
The fifth and final category is the red flags. This category is entirely determined by me and based on that thorough research I mentioned. The players are unpickable by the Canadiens for reasons of position, over-rating or the fact they have already resorted to the strategy that all slow and non-innovative players take when in a jam – they abandon their reason for being a hockey player by becoming a defensive machine before they even get a sniff of pro hockey.
Subban subs
Not worth spending too much time on these guys really. Primarily because the caliber of prospect that must be traded to get this player is more than likely to be a better prospect on odds than the draft pick himself.
The list here consists of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, Gabriel Landerskog, Jonathan Huberdeau, Sean Couturier, Dougie Hamilton, Ryan Strome and Ryan Murphy.
If any of these players were to be available without trade, or through a cheaper trade, I’d be all for adding them to the fold. Landerskog and Strome fit the bill of what the Canadiens (or any team) could use, Couturier and Huberdeau would be organizational gems, Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson are the kind of guys you make room for, and Hamilton and Murphy are a cut above their peers from the back line (with Murphy being the one I'd go for).
NAFWOPs
Mika Zibanejad, Sven Bartschi, Joel Armia, Mark McNeill all have a lot in common. All forwards. All fit the profile of a scoring forward who may succeed at NHL level. All unlikely to be available by the time the Canadiens pick.
These are the kinds of 9-15 draft picks that make one ask why the Canadiens made the playoffs if they were only going to be stifled in the first round. They make one ask that because players of their scoring ability and general quality are gone at pick 17 if all goes according to plan.
The good news is the NHL is rife with general managers who think their secret revelation is a new and unidentified way to win it all (Thomas Hickey, #4 overall, LA). Usually these GMs win the draft picks above #14 year on year.
So let’s play the game. Let’s say one of these four players slips through the table because someone opts for that 7’ guy and someone wants to impress Pierre McGuire.
If I had my choice for the player to fall to 17, I think I’d go with Joel Armia. Sure, his work ethic is being questioned by the media who watched him play one game at a tournament with lesser players than he, but he put up 18 goals in the Finnish League at age 17 and that’s got to count for something. And, remember how the Habs lost 3 OT games to Boston with Horton and Ryder spoiling the fun. How about this quote then:
I also think Nathan Beaulieu will be gone by all accounts by pick 17. If he fell to that point, the Canadiens would take him, but it might serve them better to trade down if that happens, even if it brings on the annual wrath of RDS.
Consensus mid-teens
Mark Scheifele
Look, I understand why mock drafts take this guy. There are a lot of lists and he’s high on most. To that I would ask why? In my opinion, he gets points for points, points for being big, points for being a center, and dare I say, points for being from the OHL.
Looking deeper though, despite claims he was on a talentless team, Scheifele still racked up way more assists than goals. 75 points is no OHL record and with the ice time he got, I consider the 22 goals a red flag. I also read that 11 of his goals came down a stretch at the end. While to some that would mean he picked it up in clutch games, one must remember there were no clutch games for Barries, so he actually picked it up in meaningless games. Not one for me.
The Hockey Writers call him the safe pick. Safe picks are for rounds 3/4 in my honest opinion...
Matt Puempel
Small in stature, one gets the idea Puempel got his points for actual play rather than the potential of a big guy.34 goals wasn’t something that turned heads in past seasons, but this season it seems high for the CHL. This worries me somewhat as 34 is closer to 20 than it is to 50. Still, from all accounts he makes his living from scoring goals, but still makes time to get assists. Like Scheifele, he played on a pretty awful team, however, and with a hip injury that raises other questions doesn’t get my nod.
Brandon Saad
Not sold on Brandon either for some reason. He's already garnering comments about his two-way game, which might not be a flag with 40 goals under his belt. With 27, it starts to sound like a bit of an excuse. That said, I could be way wrong about this guy.
Duncan Siemens, Jonas Brodin, Oscar Klefbom, Joe Morrow
I’m sure these guys are all fine fellows and even better defenders. But unless someone in the organization thinks they’d be passing up the next Lidstrom or Niedermayer, I’d advise a pass on this group of Dmen. The Habs need to keep Subban around and hopefully can revitalize Markov. These have to be their bets. Together with a commitment to Weber who has shown good promise, I don’t see the need to abandon hope on finding a scorng forward to take and ever so slightly safer bet based on consensus.
McGuire stunners
Stefan Noesen
This guy isn't on mmost lists, simply because they only go to pick #30. But in a year where so many 25-30 goal guys are in the running, it's a bit of a puzzle how a relatively big OHLer with 34 goals and a 69 point jump for the season wouldn't pip some of the former favourites. Let's just accept he rose from nowhere and some in the rankings racket like to save face more than they like to be objective.
34 goals in 68 games. 77 points. Up from 3 goals last season. Noesen comes from Dallas, so he might not be under their radar. But if he slips to the Canadiens #17, he should get consideration. At the very least the team should insinuate they are going to take him to the Big D and see if Nieuwendyk coughs anything up.
Daniel Catenacci
From all reports, Catenacci translates to speed. The most generous comparisons liken him to Mike Cammalleri because of his speed, his attitude and his stature. After a second playoffs watching Camms, I'd sign another one of him up if I could.
Alexander Khokhlachev
Nikita Kucherov
If you don't ever finish low enough to get a high pick, you have to take a chance to get a superstar. Kucherov represents a home run swing. The guy absolutely dominated the MHL, he smashed scoring recoreds at the recent U18 champs, he has potential to be something quite special offensively. I don't think the Canadiens have much to lose by swinging big this year, because at #17 they are already looking at guys that could only muster 20-some goals in junior anyway. If Kucherov is on the radar for this pick, it might be wise, however, to turn the pick into two and take him lower when he'll likely still be available due to his recent KHL: signing.
Tyler Biggs
I'm a bit loathe to put another American college bound kid. We've seen our fair share of these already. But Biggs is legit. He is Big, as his name suggests, and he has a knack for scoring Big goals, if not enormous numbers of them. He has to be on the list for completeness, but he wouldn't be my first choice from these.
Red flags
Boone Jenner
For me his improvement from one year to the next wasn't very impressive and it really does raise the question about how one thinks he'll suddenly become NHL 20-goal material.
Zack Phillips, Tomas Jurco
Good teams put up good amounts of goals and are populated by many high point-getters. But it's a scouts job to pick out the straw that stirs the drink. In Saint John, it seems like it was probably Huberdeau. Not to mention Simon Despres and Stanislav Galiev. I'd be wary of totals from these two forwards that may well deflate when they lose their catalysts.
Jamieson Oleksiak
He's 6'7". Let's admit not all tall guys turn out to be Chara. Some turn out to be Andy Sutton -- if you're even that lucky.
Ty Rattie
Seems like 4th fiddle on his team with some pretty crazy top end talent. Buyer beware.
Brett Ritchie
I know you can't teach size. But can one really teach a 20-goal OHL player to do it at the NHL. I know there are cases where it's been done. But have the Habs really learned nothing from Turner Stevenson, Jason Ward.
As you know, we already highlighted the lessons that the Canadiens and their crack team need to take from their own draft history, combined with that of their rivals. Just in case they don’t have time to read that, we’ll just post the most important message here:
Don’t, for goodness sake, take another defensive defender in the first round!
That out of the way, we can get down to the serious business of the draft. The way I look at it, there are about 5 categories of players to look at for the first round of this draft (No it isn’t C, RW, LW, …). The categories come from
The first category of possible draftees are those that we’ll call Subban substitutes. They aren’t called Subban subs because they will all be as good as Subban – what do you think I’m that good at scouting I can predict NHL readiness from watching a bit of junior? No, they are called Subban subs because the only way we’ll be drafting these players is if we trade PK Subban (or someone of his stature) to the team ahead of us in line who would otherwise take one of them.
The second group of players are aptly called NAFWOPs or Not Available for Weber or Pouliot. Trading the players fans see as expendable may get something, but not these guys. It probably wouldn’t take a Subban to move up, but for all intents and purposes, the Habs aren’t getting a sniff of these NAFWOPs either.
The third category is consensus early picks. These players are highly rated by the media who either a) just watched the Bruins win the Cup and concluded that only a team exactly like the Bruins will ever in again or b) waited until the last minute and couldn’t figure out how to integrate North American and European and Skater and Goalie lists. These are big forwards who scored a lot of goals in the CHL (the minimum cut off for a lot is slipping these days, some guys here scored 20ish). These are players that should be available when the Canadiens pick because a) the media don’t have NHL jobs and b) Brian Burke can’t make all the picks.
The fourth category is the McGuire stunners. These players don’t get mentioned for some reason or another. See category three for media excuses, add drinking while compiling the list. In my opinion, the more stunned Pierre McGuire is by the pick, the better the pick probably is. The Blubbering Blusterer is no clairvoyant.
The fifth and final category is the red flags. This category is entirely determined by me and based on that thorough research I mentioned. The players are unpickable by the Canadiens for reasons of position, over-rating or the fact they have already resorted to the strategy that all slow and non-innovative players take when in a jam – they abandon their reason for being a hockey player by becoming a defensive machine before they even get a sniff of pro hockey.
Subban subs
Not worth spending too much time on these guys really. Primarily because the caliber of prospect that must be traded to get this player is more than likely to be a better prospect on odds than the draft pick himself.
The list here consists of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, Gabriel Landerskog, Jonathan Huberdeau, Sean Couturier, Dougie Hamilton, Ryan Strome and Ryan Murphy.
If any of these players were to be available without trade, or through a cheaper trade, I’d be all for adding them to the fold. Landerskog and Strome fit the bill of what the Canadiens (or any team) could use, Couturier and Huberdeau would be organizational gems, Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson are the kind of guys you make room for, and Hamilton and Murphy are a cut above their peers from the back line (with Murphy being the one I'd go for).
NAFWOPs
Mika Zibanejad, Sven Bartschi, Joel Armia, Mark McNeill all have a lot in common. All forwards. All fit the profile of a scoring forward who may succeed at NHL level. All unlikely to be available by the time the Canadiens pick.
These are the kinds of 9-15 draft picks that make one ask why the Canadiens made the playoffs if they were only going to be stifled in the first round. They make one ask that because players of their scoring ability and general quality are gone at pick 17 if all goes according to plan.
The good news is the NHL is rife with general managers who think their secret revelation is a new and unidentified way to win it all (Thomas Hickey, #4 overall, LA). Usually these GMs win the draft picks above #14 year on year.
So let’s play the game. Let’s say one of these four players slips through the table because someone opts for that 7’ guy and someone wants to impress Pierre McGuire.
If I had my choice for the player to fall to 17, I think I’d go with Joel Armia. Sure, his work ethic is being questioned by the media who watched him play one game at a tournament with lesser players than he, but he put up 18 goals in the Finnish League at age 17 and that’s got to count for something. And, remember how the Habs lost 3 OT games to Boston with Horton and Ryder spoiling the fun. How about this quote then:
"You might have to look for him during some shifts, but then, suddenly, he scores the winner."Goalscorers sometimes need to disappear to do their thing. I certainly wouldn't mind empty shifts if goals flowed freely.
I also think Nathan Beaulieu will be gone by all accounts by pick 17. If he fell to that point, the Canadiens would take him, but it might serve them better to trade down if that happens, even if it brings on the annual wrath of RDS.
Consensus mid-teens
Mark Scheifele
Look, I understand why mock drafts take this guy. There are a lot of lists and he’s high on most. To that I would ask why? In my opinion, he gets points for points, points for being big, points for being a center, and dare I say, points for being from the OHL.
Looking deeper though, despite claims he was on a talentless team, Scheifele still racked up way more assists than goals. 75 points is no OHL record and with the ice time he got, I consider the 22 goals a red flag. I also read that 11 of his goals came down a stretch at the end. While to some that would mean he picked it up in clutch games, one must remember there were no clutch games for Barries, so he actually picked it up in meaningless games. Not one for me.
The Hockey Writers call him the safe pick. Safe picks are for rounds 3/4 in my honest opinion...
Matt Puempel
Small in stature, one gets the idea Puempel got his points for actual play rather than the potential of a big guy.34 goals wasn’t something that turned heads in past seasons, but this season it seems high for the CHL. This worries me somewhat as 34 is closer to 20 than it is to 50. Still, from all accounts he makes his living from scoring goals, but still makes time to get assists. Like Scheifele, he played on a pretty awful team, however, and with a hip injury that raises other questions doesn’t get my nod.
Brandon Saad
Not sold on Brandon either for some reason. He's already garnering comments about his two-way game, which might not be a flag with 40 goals under his belt. With 27, it starts to sound like a bit of an excuse. That said, I could be way wrong about this guy.
Duncan Siemens, Jonas Brodin, Oscar Klefbom, Joe Morrow
I’m sure these guys are all fine fellows and even better defenders. But unless someone in the organization thinks they’d be passing up the next Lidstrom or Niedermayer, I’d advise a pass on this group of Dmen. The Habs need to keep Subban around and hopefully can revitalize Markov. These have to be their bets. Together with a commitment to Weber who has shown good promise, I don’t see the need to abandon hope on finding a scorng forward to take and ever so slightly safer bet based on consensus.
McGuire stunners
Stefan Noesen
This guy isn't on mmost lists, simply because they only go to pick #30. But in a year where so many 25-30 goal guys are in the running, it's a bit of a puzzle how a relatively big OHLer with 34 goals and a 69 point jump for the season wouldn't pip some of the former favourites. Let's just accept he rose from nowhere and some in the rankings racket like to save face more than they like to be objective.
34 goals in 68 games. 77 points. Up from 3 goals last season. Noesen comes from Dallas, so he might not be under their radar. But if he slips to the Canadiens #17, he should get consideration. At the very least the team should insinuate they are going to take him to the Big D and see if Nieuwendyk coughs anything up.
Daniel Catenacci
From all reports, Catenacci translates to speed. The most generous comparisons liken him to Mike Cammalleri because of his speed, his attitude and his stature. After a second playoffs watching Camms, I'd sign another one of him up if I could.
Alexander Khokhlachev
"The first thing that jumps out about Khokhlachev’s game is his heart."A comment like that and 34 goals in his first OHL season, I'm certain this is a classic Russian shy-away. The Canadiens have a chance to be a bit of Russian hub with Markov, Emelin, Kostitsyn and Avtsin. Why not take advantage of the rest of the NHL's reluctance. This guy played in North America already. What more could he have done to prove he wanted to be in the NHL?
Nikita Kucherov
If you don't ever finish low enough to get a high pick, you have to take a chance to get a superstar. Kucherov represents a home run swing. The guy absolutely dominated the MHL, he smashed scoring recoreds at the recent U18 champs, he has potential to be something quite special offensively. I don't think the Canadiens have much to lose by swinging big this year, because at #17 they are already looking at guys that could only muster 20-some goals in junior anyway. If Kucherov is on the radar for this pick, it might be wise, however, to turn the pick into two and take him lower when he'll likely still be available due to his recent KHL: signing.
Tyler Biggs
I'm a bit loathe to put another American college bound kid. We've seen our fair share of these already. But Biggs is legit. He is Big, as his name suggests, and he has a knack for scoring Big goals, if not enormous numbers of them. He has to be on the list for completeness, but he wouldn't be my first choice from these.
Red flags
Boone Jenner
For me his improvement from one year to the next wasn't very impressive and it really does raise the question about how one thinks he'll suddenly become NHL 20-goal material.
Zack Phillips, Tomas Jurco
Good teams put up good amounts of goals and are populated by many high point-getters. But it's a scouts job to pick out the straw that stirs the drink. In Saint John, it seems like it was probably Huberdeau. Not to mention Simon Despres and Stanislav Galiev. I'd be wary of totals from these two forwards that may well deflate when they lose their catalysts.
Jamieson Oleksiak
He's 6'7". Let's admit not all tall guys turn out to be Chara. Some turn out to be Andy Sutton -- if you're even that lucky.
Ty Rattie
Seems like 4th fiddle on his team with some pretty crazy top end talent. Buyer beware.
Brett Ritchie
I know you can't teach size. But can one really teach a 20-goal OHL player to do it at the NHL. I know there are cases where it's been done. But have the Habs really learned nothing from Turner Stevenson, Jason Ward.
Monday, June 20, 2011
$20,000,000 Should Do It
Your news for today:
- Cap set to rise to $64 million (floor to $48 million)
- Pacioretty signs for $3.25 million over a couple of seasons
- Markov still unsigned
That together with other non-news like Gomez not traded, Moen still inexplicably employed by the Canadiens, Jagr never to sign in Montreal and Pouliot without a contract gives us the grand sum of news which is this:
The Canadiens have about $20 million to spend on 4 defenders, 5 forwards and a back-up goalie.
Now, we know that one of these defenders is Andrei Markov, and we think his contract is being negotiated now. We don't know what the delay is or has been, but it's conceivable the team and the player have been waiting to see what the salary cap will be for the future of this contract.
Knowing now that the cap is high and $6 million is now a mere 10% of the team budget, the playing field is clearer.
Knowing this ourselves, we feel that there is little reason that Andrei Markov and whatever salary it takes to get him won't fit into the team's new budgetary calculations.
For the sake of argument, let's pull $6 million-ish as his cap number. With Andrei signed, together with the top two lines as they look like they will be going forward, PK Subban and Yannick Weber, Hal Gill and Carey Price, there is also little reason to believe that any of the remaining restricted free agents would be lost against the team's own strategic desires.
A remaining $14 million is more than enough to cover off Josh Gorges, Benoit Pouiot, David Desharnais, Ryan White, Alex Picard and Tom Pyatt. This illustrious list even gives hope that there would be plenty left over should Gauthier want to re-acquaint himself with someone like Roman Hamrlik, Brent Sopel or possibly even James Wisniewski.
A rising salary cap world
Now that the Canadiens have been in a rising salary cap world for 6 years, does anyone else think it's high time they started acting like they are?
Every team that we think is under threat of being dismantled come spring (barring the stacked Blackhawks) always seems to get their reprieve by the bustling budgetary numbers from the revamped league. The Philadelphia Flyers, serial cap violators all of a sudden have all the money they need to sign Ilya Bryzgalov and keep their roster mostly intact. It almost seems like they knew that a cap determined by their budget combined with other teams would get a boost. it almost seems like they read the market and learned that caps usually go up in June.
The Canadiens are doing better. The Plekanec contract for example, looks a lot better today than it did yesterday. Ditto Cammalleri. But the recent Kostitsyn signing (at an NHL median $3.25 million a year) seems like a very conservative bet on a clearly above average player.
In this rising cap world of nice surprises and unexpected cap space, I wouldn't mind seeing the Canadiens get a bit more crafty when their annual May break comes around.
Still, I'll be more than happy at this point with a Google search that turns up news for Andrei Markov before the end of June.
- Cap set to rise to $64 million (floor to $48 million)
- Pacioretty signs for $3.25 million over a couple of seasons
- Markov still unsigned
That together with other non-news like Gomez not traded, Moen still inexplicably employed by the Canadiens, Jagr never to sign in Montreal and Pouliot without a contract gives us the grand sum of news which is this:
The Canadiens have about $20 million to spend on 4 defenders, 5 forwards and a back-up goalie.
Now, we know that one of these defenders is Andrei Markov, and we think his contract is being negotiated now. We don't know what the delay is or has been, but it's conceivable the team and the player have been waiting to see what the salary cap will be for the future of this contract.
Knowing now that the cap is high and $6 million is now a mere 10% of the team budget, the playing field is clearer.
Knowing this ourselves, we feel that there is little reason that Andrei Markov and whatever salary it takes to get him won't fit into the team's new budgetary calculations.
For the sake of argument, let's pull $6 million-ish as his cap number. With Andrei signed, together with the top two lines as they look like they will be going forward, PK Subban and Yannick Weber, Hal Gill and Carey Price, there is also little reason to believe that any of the remaining restricted free agents would be lost against the team's own strategic desires.
A remaining $14 million is more than enough to cover off Josh Gorges, Benoit Pouiot, David Desharnais, Ryan White, Alex Picard and Tom Pyatt. This illustrious list even gives hope that there would be plenty left over should Gauthier want to re-acquaint himself with someone like Roman Hamrlik, Brent Sopel or possibly even James Wisniewski.
A rising salary cap world
Now that the Canadiens have been in a rising salary cap world for 6 years, does anyone else think it's high time they started acting like they are?
Every team that we think is under threat of being dismantled come spring (barring the stacked Blackhawks) always seems to get their reprieve by the bustling budgetary numbers from the revamped league. The Philadelphia Flyers, serial cap violators all of a sudden have all the money they need to sign Ilya Bryzgalov and keep their roster mostly intact. It almost seems like they knew that a cap determined by their budget combined with other teams would get a boost. it almost seems like they read the market and learned that caps usually go up in June.
The Canadiens are doing better. The Plekanec contract for example, looks a lot better today than it did yesterday. Ditto Cammalleri. But the recent Kostitsyn signing (at an NHL median $3.25 million a year) seems like a very conservative bet on a clearly above average player.
In this rising cap world of nice surprises and unexpected cap space, I wouldn't mind seeing the Canadiens get a bit more crafty when their annual May break comes around.
Still, I'll be more than happy at this point with a Google search that turns up news for Andrei Markov before the end of June.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Hard-Learned Lessons For Draft Day
Things that I hope the Canadiens have learned about drafting over the past decade:
1) Being more mature 18 isn’t an advantage at age 23
2) Being a defensive forward in junior means a guy doesn’t have the skill to score on junior goalies. Chances you want this guy on your pro team … he’d better play some kinda special defence
3) Defensive defenders come from everywhere. No need to try and find on in the first round.
4) As much as you’d like to trade for St. Louis, Staal, Perry, Ovechkin, Crosby, Sedins, you can’t. Constantly passing on scorers likely means you could end up without any.
5) While the NCAA is nice to bury a player outside the budget, one only needs to take a look at Komisarek’s regular National team duty to know that USA isn’t pumping out the cream of the defensive crop.
6) Better to get 2 players in the top 60 than one after the first 10 pass.
7) Russia hasn’t forgotten how to play hockey just because they’ve forgotten how to sign on to IIHF transfer agreements.
8) If the NHL can’t even reconcile how to mix North American and European players from the same positions together into one list, how do you expect to judge a player’s NHL value against high school opponents in Massachusetts?
9) Organizational needs on the day won’t be organizational needs when the player ripens.
10) OHL is not a dirty word.
11) BCHL stands for Below CHL.
1) Being more mature 18 isn’t an advantage at age 23
2) Being a defensive forward in junior means a guy doesn’t have the skill to score on junior goalies. Chances you want this guy on your pro team … he’d better play some kinda special defence
3) Defensive defenders come from everywhere. No need to try and find on in the first round.
4) As much as you’d like to trade for St. Louis, Staal, Perry, Ovechkin, Crosby, Sedins, you can’t. Constantly passing on scorers likely means you could end up without any.
5) While the NCAA is nice to bury a player outside the budget, one only needs to take a look at Komisarek’s regular National team duty to know that USA isn’t pumping out the cream of the defensive crop.
6) Better to get 2 players in the top 60 than one after the first 10 pass.
7) Russia hasn’t forgotten how to play hockey just because they’ve forgotten how to sign on to IIHF transfer agreements.
8) If the NHL can’t even reconcile how to mix North American and European players from the same positions together into one list, how do you expect to judge a player’s NHL value against high school opponents in Massachusetts?
9) Organizational needs on the day won’t be organizational needs when the player ripens.
10) OHL is not a dirty word.
11) BCHL stands for Below CHL.
Thursday, June 09, 2011
Canucks Video Day:
Watch Habs, Lightning
The Vancouver Canucks, the team we have entrusted to spare us from endless braying of the mindless Bruites, have been abysmal of late. It seems their goalie can't make a save and their envy-of-the-league offence can't crack the two-man crew Boston has assembled.
Before this gets too desperate and we need to call on the spirit of Kovalev to undo the black andgold yellow, some sage advice for the former Canadiens coach we all liked better anyway.
Get yourself some video of the Bruins playoff losses
The Canadiens will be more than happy to oblige, I'm sure, plus if you didn't know it's public access now, and you can probably afford the NHL Centre Ice package.
Tim Thomas must appear to be unbeatable right now, but he has weaknesses. Watch a Canadiens game (the Habs scored in every game despite lacking 6 good forwards), watch the Lightning play Tim Thomas to a pedestrian 0.916. Heck watch Toronto figure out the old man in their last three regular season meetings.
Tim Thomas thrives on first stops. First stops from lousy positions. His team ushers players to these places knowing that Tim will make the save. He's good at the rest too, but he has his dislikes:
1) Cross-ice passes
Because he flops rather than shifts across ice, he relies on percentages on cross ice rather than eyesight or other skill. The Canadiens worked the cross-ice pass to near-perfection when they figured it out, even getting a goal from the stingiest goalie in the final two minutes of a game that should have ended in regulation.
2) Low shots
Games 1 and 2 of the playoffs put Thomas's deficiencies into neon light for all to see. With the Habs low shots were rebounds. Always.
3) Patience on the PP
Thomas may be riding an astounding 0.936 for the playoffs, but he's not otherworldly when on the PK. His 0.877 there is Roberto Luongo/Corey Schneider level and behind such luminaries as Ray Emery and Brian Boucher. He's saved his team's bacon a few times, but when it's been PK time, often Boston took a loss. Still, a goal is not a given and patience can allow the team to wait for opportunities to exploit weaknesses 1) and 2).
Well this is easier said than done, isn't it? Because in order to get a cross-ice pass in, or take a good low shot, one has to first beat Chara.
But Chara has his weakness too, you know. Being punched being one of them, of course (good show Kesler).
A rational person might see 6'9" and come up with the idea that the only way to beat Chara is with someone who can match his size and physicality.
This is wrong. He is so much bigger than anything most teams can throw at him, and so conservative and efficient in movement that this actually plays into his hands.
Take the opposite approach. Go small. Small as can be. Cammalleri was the player of the first round despite Chara's protestations. Gionta gave Zdeno fits at times with hits to the knees. Who led the Lightning against Thomas in their series? St. Louis.
Obviously part of the advantage these players have on a guy like Chara is speed, and more importantly maneuverability. I am not so intimately aware of the Canucks line-up, but as long as you don't ask Higgins, find a shifty player to turn Chara inside out a few times, hit him low and bingo, the vast advantage he usually gives his team is diminished.
From there the Canucks can start to pick on judgment-sink and uber-hypocrite Andrew Ference and his band of journeymen.
I'm not saying this is a guaranteed recipe for success. But when one can't see the forest for the trees (or tree-sized skaters) then one sometimes has to be told obvious little things like these. Vancouver has been poor against the Bru9ins largely because they haven't adapted their game to reflect Bruins weakness. No time to waste in seeing that happens now.
Down the Bruins.
Before this gets too desperate and we need to call on the spirit of Kovalev to undo the black and
Get yourself some video of the Bruins playoff losses
The Canadiens will be more than happy to oblige, I'm sure, plus if you didn't know it's public access now, and you can probably afford the NHL Centre Ice package.
Tim Thomas must appear to be unbeatable right now, but he has weaknesses. Watch a Canadiens game (the Habs scored in every game despite lacking 6 good forwards), watch the Lightning play Tim Thomas to a pedestrian 0.916. Heck watch Toronto figure out the old man in their last three regular season meetings.
Tim Thomas thrives on first stops. First stops from lousy positions. His team ushers players to these places knowing that Tim will make the save. He's good at the rest too, but he has his dislikes:
1) Cross-ice passes
Because he flops rather than shifts across ice, he relies on percentages on cross ice rather than eyesight or other skill. The Canadiens worked the cross-ice pass to near-perfection when they figured it out, even getting a goal from the stingiest goalie in the final two minutes of a game that should have ended in regulation.
2) Low shots
Games 1 and 2 of the playoffs put Thomas's deficiencies into neon light for all to see. With the Habs low shots were rebounds. Always.
3) Patience on the PP
Thomas may be riding an astounding 0.936 for the playoffs, but he's not otherworldly when on the PK. His 0.877 there is Roberto Luongo/Corey Schneider level and behind such luminaries as Ray Emery and Brian Boucher. He's saved his team's bacon a few times, but when it's been PK time, often Boston took a loss. Still, a goal is not a given and patience can allow the team to wait for opportunities to exploit weaknesses 1) and 2).
Well this is easier said than done, isn't it? Because in order to get a cross-ice pass in, or take a good low shot, one has to first beat Chara.
But Chara has his weakness too, you know. Being punched being one of them, of course (good show Kesler).
A rational person might see 6'9" and come up with the idea that the only way to beat Chara is with someone who can match his size and physicality.
This is wrong. He is so much bigger than anything most teams can throw at him, and so conservative and efficient in movement that this actually plays into his hands.
Take the opposite approach. Go small. Small as can be. Cammalleri was the player of the first round despite Chara's protestations. Gionta gave Zdeno fits at times with hits to the knees. Who led the Lightning against Thomas in their series? St. Louis.
Obviously part of the advantage these players have on a guy like Chara is speed, and more importantly maneuverability. I am not so intimately aware of the Canucks line-up, but as long as you don't ask Higgins, find a shifty player to turn Chara inside out a few times, hit him low and bingo, the vast advantage he usually gives his team is diminished.
From there the Canucks can start to pick on judgment-sink and uber-hypocrite Andrew Ference and his band of journeymen.
I'm not saying this is a guaranteed recipe for success. But when one can't see the forest for the trees (or tree-sized skaters) then one sometimes has to be told obvious little things like these. Vancouver has been poor against the Bru9ins largely because they haven't adapted their game to reflect Bruins weakness. No time to waste in seeing that happens now.
Down the Bruins.
Wednesday, June 08, 2011
When It's Good To Be Hated
According to the extensive research of one more "professional" reporter, the Canucks are the NHL's most hated team. The evidence as it stacks up (3 NHL players, if you can call Krys Barch that, and one team exec) is irrefutable enough to make the national newspaper -- but they're no tabloid, right?
The interest of the article is clear for Canadiens fans. yet again a dirty team is using the press to make their opponents at a particular time seem the villains. Boston has their lines all written out from the Canadiens series. Diving = despicable. Breaking necks = unfortunate part of the game. Of course it also helps that no one even asks them to show the discrepancies in diving between their team and the other.
So let's take the thesis that the Canucks are hated (never crossed my mind before, but let's). Is it possible that this position they are in is actually enviable?
Dave Bolland (hero) dislikes the Canucks. As he should, because they just eliminated his team. Dave Bolland plays hard hockey and talks and scores important goals. He is admired around the league. Sounds like a certain reporters description of a Canuck. Wonder if Dave Bolland had many fans on the Canucks team he eliminated last season. Of course, this reporter wasn't interested in "Blackhawks most hated" back then.
Then there's the hits. I hate the hits too. But let's not pretend this is something confined to the Canucks. The Bruins are some of the dirtiest hitters around, and don't get off the hook from me just because they claim Halpern dived and Pacioretty was acting so he could get time off to watch a movie. The Blackhawks are no angels either. Nor any NHL team. The hitting situation has to be weeded out of the game, but it won't end with Aaron Rome and Raffi Torres.
Finally the rats. Alex Burrows and Maxim Lapierre. These guys are despised across the league. Whether they are mocking, diving, declining a fight or biting, it's unanimous from the multitude of sources interviewed for this premier piece of reporting that they are viewed with disdain.
But consider for a minute that both players are two games away from winning a Stanley Cup. Consider Burrows has 9 playoff goals, 7 at even strength, 2 game winners, including a very important one in this series.
Perhaps Krys Barch, who had this to say of Max Lapierre “I don’t know if he has an ounce of man in him, I’d be embarrassed to be his father.” should reflect on his own abysmal playoff record (AHL and NHL) when he criticises a player that has been a factor for teams going to Conference final and Stanley Cup final in consecutive years.
Envy and hatred aren't far apart. And in my experience hatred wanes when indifference starts to enter the equation (see Maple Leafs, Toronto). In my opinion, to be the most hated team in the NHL, with a maximum of 4 games left till summer is probably the precise position you would want to be in.
I just can't wait until Ryan Whitney, Mike Richards and the two-faced Boston media pipe up about the Habs and PK Subban in this way.
The interest of the article is clear for Canadiens fans. yet again a dirty team is using the press to make their opponents at a particular time seem the villains. Boston has their lines all written out from the Canadiens series. Diving = despicable. Breaking necks = unfortunate part of the game. Of course it also helps that no one even asks them to show the discrepancies in diving between their team and the other.
So let's take the thesis that the Canucks are hated (never crossed my mind before, but let's). Is it possible that this position they are in is actually enviable?
Dave Bolland (hero) dislikes the Canucks. As he should, because they just eliminated his team. Dave Bolland plays hard hockey and talks and scores important goals. He is admired around the league. Sounds like a certain reporters description of a Canuck. Wonder if Dave Bolland had many fans on the Canucks team he eliminated last season. Of course, this reporter wasn't interested in "Blackhawks most hated" back then.
Then there's the hits. I hate the hits too. But let's not pretend this is something confined to the Canucks. The Bruins are some of the dirtiest hitters around, and don't get off the hook from me just because they claim Halpern dived and Pacioretty was acting so he could get time off to watch a movie. The Blackhawks are no angels either. Nor any NHL team. The hitting situation has to be weeded out of the game, but it won't end with Aaron Rome and Raffi Torres.
Finally the rats. Alex Burrows and Maxim Lapierre. These guys are despised across the league. Whether they are mocking, diving, declining a fight or biting, it's unanimous from the multitude of sources interviewed for this premier piece of reporting that they are viewed with disdain.
But consider for a minute that both players are two games away from winning a Stanley Cup. Consider Burrows has 9 playoff goals, 7 at even strength, 2 game winners, including a very important one in this series.
Perhaps Krys Barch, who had this to say of Max Lapierre “I don’t know if he has an ounce of man in him, I’d be embarrassed to be his father.” should reflect on his own abysmal playoff record (AHL and NHL) when he criticises a player that has been a factor for teams going to Conference final and Stanley Cup final in consecutive years.
Envy and hatred aren't far apart. And in my experience hatred wanes when indifference starts to enter the equation (see Maple Leafs, Toronto). In my opinion, to be the most hated team in the NHL, with a maximum of 4 games left till summer is probably the precise position you would want to be in.
I just can't wait until Ryan Whitney, Mike Richards and the two-faced Boston media pipe up about the Habs and PK Subban in this way.
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