So Sergei Kostitsyn was finally traded.
If anyone thought we’d seen the end of trading down after Ribeiro was traded for Janne Niniimaa then they’d be wrong. Sergei was traded as an RFA, mind you, for the chance to sign Dan Ellis and Dustin Boyd two days ahead of schedule. Consider that the Habs don’t even have room for Ellis (more on that later), and it’s the chance to sign Dustin Boyd.
But wait, if they do sign Boyd, it’s a compensatory draft pick due to Nashville.
So we’re down to Sergei Kostitsyn for nothing. Maybe we get a draft pick if Nashville manage to sign the Belarussian.
If the Habs wanted Boyd, they could have signed him first thing July 1st for the same salary and avoided having to give up a draft pick. If they wanted Ellis, they could do the same, though they might want to check back on all that talk about salary caps surrounding the last trade.
Whatever the case, it’s a downgrade in talent that was necessitated by the Canadiens inability to keep another youngster in line. Think the Habs are the only team with spoiled brats acting up at every turn? Hear of Patrick Kane? No, the Habs are only unique in their complete inabaility to contain matters and turn what may be a quiet and productive trade into nothing.
I didn’t love Sergei as a player. Nor did I subscribe to the idea that we should persist with his painful development. But trading players for nothing is a fool’s game. And our team is at it again…
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Canadiens Draft Review
Just a look at how I thought the two days went, picks, trades and all.
Trading up
The Canadiens first move of the day was to trade up in the draft order. In order to climb 5 places in the first round, the Canadiens dealt the 57th pick for the 113th pick (a 56 player drop).
The Canadiens presumably make this trade because they got itchy about the Tinordi pick – they had, after all, printed a shirt for the kid. Obviously Phoenix was not in play for Tinordi, else no trade. But were the other four teams? Buffalo’s next pick was Mark Pysyk, a biggish defender. Chicago took a forward, but took several biggish US defenders later on. Florida took Petrovic, a big Dman at #36. Washington took Kuznetzov, then Galiev.
I think it’s fair to say the Canadiens inkling about Tinordi (if other scouts rated him at all) was right. Had they waited 5 picks, they’d have risked missing out on him and wasting money on a shirt.
So from that point of view, it was the right move.
But think of it another way. Had the Canadiens not traded, had the Canadiens missed Tinordi, would the situation have been so awful?
Remember that in addition to being able to take a decent players at #27, they’d also have had a second rounder. In my dream world, that would mean they’d select a couple of scoring prospects (maybe Etem and Pulkkinen, maybe Nelson and McKegg, who knows), and it that dream world, I think we net out ever so slightly better.
Given they took quite a swing for the fences on pick #113, I can forgive the trade, though.
I’m neutral on it.
Trades they didn’t make
Hindsight is 20:20, and it’s a favourite tool of armchair commentators like myself. Hindsight at this draft tells us that several players dropped quite a bit further than expected, that quite a lot of players were available at unexpected times.
Pulkkinen, who I rate, went a mere 2 picks ahead of the Canadiens first 4th round selection. Not shifting picks around at that stage is a missed opportunity for me. Then again, I don’t have a scouting staff.
Similarly, a low volume of picks in an unclear draft only makes the gambling more intense. That 27th pick for a couple of picks might have been welcome. Or seeing who they picked anyway, trying to turn some 4th rounders into a few more 6th rounders.
Seeing as all GMs seemed to want to get to the beach, I won’t fault Montreal here too much either. Trades not made aren’t damaging.
I’m ambivalent on this.
Jarred Tinordi (Stats)
I think we all agree that you can’t teach big. But we might also agree there’s a big difference between Zdeno Chara and Andy Sutton. Big isn’t everything. But teach a big man to play with his size, well then you have a cornerstone piece.
As picks go, I don’t mind this one at all. It’s not the optimal pick, yet there are so many worse scenarios, so many worse picks. If uber-talented scorers are the rarest commodity in the league, then massive, qualified defencemen must be among the next rarest. In addition, the Canadiens took the biggest, and from what I read the best of the big defencemen available.
A good start.
Mark MacMillan (Stats)
An interesting prospect from the BCHL. Allegedly 6 feet tall and a mere 150 lbs. I’d love to see this guy in person, he must be a beanpole.
But he wasn’t picked for his stature. He was picked because as a rookie in the BCHL with the Alberni Valley Bulldogs, MacMillan racked up 26 goals and 54 assists in 59 games – good enough for 9th in league scoring. In doing so, Mark also won the BCHL rookie of the year honours and a place on the very interesting North Dakota Fighting Sioux hockey team.
Like all drafted players, his coach thinks he’s a special player. That doesn’t tell me much. But consider this: he turned his brother (Mitch MacMillan) from a third year BCHL 45 point scoring vet into a 61 goalscorer and league MVP. I can’t say it was all Mark, but he probably had something to do with it.
In more good news, his brother is also 6 feet tall, and at the age of 20 showed that MacMillans were able to put weight on their frame.
I like the return to the board for the Habs. Aggressive and unafraid of the critics. The pick’s a good, though not great, one.
Morgan Ellis (Stats)
Not as exciting is the 6’1” stay-at-home defenceman from the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles of the QMJHL. He describes his own first pass and checking as good, but we’ve had plenty of defenders with low self-awareness, enough to make me question his assessment.
His stature is fine, as are his points totals. Even the fact he’s from the Q is good for business. It’s just this is not a pick to get up about. He may be an NHLer, but thousands have come before like him who never made it, just as some who did made it. We’ll have to wait and see.
Overall, I think this pick was wasteful. I think a goaltender like Louis Dominique, even if he is a risk at this point, would have been better use of the resources.
Brendan Gallagher (Stats)
Another BC boy with a small frame. And once again, another BC boy with plenty of skill to like. In fact, if you want to get down to it, Gallagher is the best pick the Habs made after Tinordi. While MacMillan put on a show in the BCHL as a rookie, Gallagher did the trick in the WHL regular season, and then again in the playoffs. 41 goals in 72 games in the season says goalscorer, for certain. 11 goals and 21 points in 16 playoff tilts speaks to some clutch ability.
Obviously the downside here is size. But the Canadiens play the odds well, as Gallagher dropped because of size, not skill. Pick a big guy at 147th overall, and it means 30 scouting teams were either very wrong about him, or that he is a total late bloomer, so who’s to know.
The risk here is worthy, though it may be interesting to see which of the Bruins (Craig Cunningham) and the Habs got the better of the Vancouver “Giants” duo.
Considering all that came after, this pick was a move in the right direction for me. A winner.
John Westin (Stats)
As if to assuage those of us who call for Swedes mad for skill, Timmins and his team dug deep and picked John Westin from the MoDo system.
At three picks from the end of the draft, I have to say you can’t do much better than picking a 6’O”, 183 lbs Swede with a touch around the net.
Though his numbers are only from Sweden’s Jr ranks, they are still impressive. For MoDo J20 he managed 16 goals in 31 games, which seems like a decent total compared to his peers. But it’s his scoring at the U18 championships (3 G in 6 games) and for the Swedish U18 team overall (6 G and 10 Pts in 10 games) that truly tantalize.
This is a home run swing, make no mistake. But at this point of the draft it’s almost nonsense to think you can do anything else. What’s more, picking from the best development system in Sweden, maybe the hockey world, isn’t a bad bet in my books.
Great pick.
Trading up
The Canadiens first move of the day was to trade up in the draft order. In order to climb 5 places in the first round, the Canadiens dealt the 57th pick for the 113th pick (a 56 player drop).
The Canadiens presumably make this trade because they got itchy about the Tinordi pick – they had, after all, printed a shirt for the kid. Obviously Phoenix was not in play for Tinordi, else no trade. But were the other four teams? Buffalo’s next pick was Mark Pysyk, a biggish defender. Chicago took a forward, but took several biggish US defenders later on. Florida took Petrovic, a big Dman at #36. Washington took Kuznetzov, then Galiev.
I think it’s fair to say the Canadiens inkling about Tinordi (if other scouts rated him at all) was right. Had they waited 5 picks, they’d have risked missing out on him and wasting money on a shirt.
So from that point of view, it was the right move.
But think of it another way. Had the Canadiens not traded, had the Canadiens missed Tinordi, would the situation have been so awful?
Remember that in addition to being able to take a decent players at #27, they’d also have had a second rounder. In my dream world, that would mean they’d select a couple of scoring prospects (maybe Etem and Pulkkinen, maybe Nelson and McKegg, who knows), and it that dream world, I think we net out ever so slightly better.
Given they took quite a swing for the fences on pick #113, I can forgive the trade, though.
I’m neutral on it.
Trades they didn’t make
Hindsight is 20:20, and it’s a favourite tool of armchair commentators like myself. Hindsight at this draft tells us that several players dropped quite a bit further than expected, that quite a lot of players were available at unexpected times.
Pulkkinen, who I rate, went a mere 2 picks ahead of the Canadiens first 4th round selection. Not shifting picks around at that stage is a missed opportunity for me. Then again, I don’t have a scouting staff.
Similarly, a low volume of picks in an unclear draft only makes the gambling more intense. That 27th pick for a couple of picks might have been welcome. Or seeing who they picked anyway, trying to turn some 4th rounders into a few more 6th rounders.
Seeing as all GMs seemed to want to get to the beach, I won’t fault Montreal here too much either. Trades not made aren’t damaging.
I’m ambivalent on this.
Jarred Tinordi (Stats)
I think we all agree that you can’t teach big. But we might also agree there’s a big difference between Zdeno Chara and Andy Sutton. Big isn’t everything. But teach a big man to play with his size, well then you have a cornerstone piece.
As picks go, I don’t mind this one at all. It’s not the optimal pick, yet there are so many worse scenarios, so many worse picks. If uber-talented scorers are the rarest commodity in the league, then massive, qualified defencemen must be among the next rarest. In addition, the Canadiens took the biggest, and from what I read the best of the big defencemen available.
A good start.
Mark MacMillan (Stats)
An interesting prospect from the BCHL. Allegedly 6 feet tall and a mere 150 lbs. I’d love to see this guy in person, he must be a beanpole.
But he wasn’t picked for his stature. He was picked because as a rookie in the BCHL with the Alberni Valley Bulldogs, MacMillan racked up 26 goals and 54 assists in 59 games – good enough for 9th in league scoring. In doing so, Mark also won the BCHL rookie of the year honours and a place on the very interesting North Dakota Fighting Sioux hockey team.
Like all drafted players, his coach thinks he’s a special player. That doesn’t tell me much. But consider this: he turned his brother (Mitch MacMillan) from a third year BCHL 45 point scoring vet into a 61 goalscorer and league MVP. I can’t say it was all Mark, but he probably had something to do with it.
In more good news, his brother is also 6 feet tall, and at the age of 20 showed that MacMillans were able to put weight on their frame.
I like the return to the board for the Habs. Aggressive and unafraid of the critics. The pick’s a good, though not great, one.
Morgan Ellis (Stats)
Not as exciting is the 6’1” stay-at-home defenceman from the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles of the QMJHL. He describes his own first pass and checking as good, but we’ve had plenty of defenders with low self-awareness, enough to make me question his assessment.
His stature is fine, as are his points totals. Even the fact he’s from the Q is good for business. It’s just this is not a pick to get up about. He may be an NHLer, but thousands have come before like him who never made it, just as some who did made it. We’ll have to wait and see.
Overall, I think this pick was wasteful. I think a goaltender like Louis Dominique, even if he is a risk at this point, would have been better use of the resources.
Brendan Gallagher (Stats)
Another BC boy with a small frame. And once again, another BC boy with plenty of skill to like. In fact, if you want to get down to it, Gallagher is the best pick the Habs made after Tinordi. While MacMillan put on a show in the BCHL as a rookie, Gallagher did the trick in the WHL regular season, and then again in the playoffs. 41 goals in 72 games in the season says goalscorer, for certain. 11 goals and 21 points in 16 playoff tilts speaks to some clutch ability.
Obviously the downside here is size. But the Canadiens play the odds well, as Gallagher dropped because of size, not skill. Pick a big guy at 147th overall, and it means 30 scouting teams were either very wrong about him, or that he is a total late bloomer, so who’s to know.
The risk here is worthy, though it may be interesting to see which of the Bruins (Craig Cunningham) and the Habs got the better of the Vancouver “Giants” duo.
Considering all that came after, this pick was a move in the right direction for me. A winner.
John Westin (Stats)
As if to assuage those of us who call for Swedes mad for skill, Timmins and his team dug deep and picked John Westin from the MoDo system.
At three picks from the end of the draft, I have to say you can’t do much better than picking a 6’O”, 183 lbs Swede with a touch around the net.
Though his numbers are only from Sweden’s Jr ranks, they are still impressive. For MoDo J20 he managed 16 goals in 31 games, which seems like a decent total compared to his peers. But it’s his scoring at the U18 championships (3 G in 6 games) and for the Swedish U18 team overall (6 G and 10 Pts in 10 games) that truly tantalize.
This is a home run swing, make no mistake. But at this point of the draft it’s almost nonsense to think you can do anything else. What’s more, picking from the best development system in Sweden, maybe the hockey world, isn’t a bad bet in my books.
Great pick.
Friday, June 25, 2010
List Enough Players And You'll Look A Genius
Yesterday, I wrote on Jarred Tinordi as the D man the Canadiens must take if they were to take the easy route and pick on D.
I'm not thrilled about the pick, but Tinordi should be big enough and established enough to avoid the David Fischer fiasco. If he makes the league and plays a solid game with a giant frame then he's not going to be the biggest failure of this draft.
That pick may belong to the Buffalo Sabres who took the underwhelming Pysyk on the very next pick.
If you want insight into why the Habs traded to get Tinordi picked, then that Buffalo pick at #23 tells you all you need to know. They'd have had Tinordi over the already "all-round" defender they sunk their pick into.
Because of the trade, the Habs are out of action until the fourth round when they get the 113th and 117th picks. Then it's 147 and 207 and done. With Quebecers bound to be selected, there's little to get too excited about. My hopes remain with our friend Corbeil-Theriault and a couple of scorers who've dropped.
I'm not thrilled about the pick, but Tinordi should be big enough and established enough to avoid the David Fischer fiasco. If he makes the league and plays a solid game with a giant frame then he's not going to be the biggest failure of this draft.
That pick may belong to the Buffalo Sabres who took the underwhelming Pysyk on the very next pick.
If you want insight into why the Habs traded to get Tinordi picked, then that Buffalo pick at #23 tells you all you need to know. They'd have had Tinordi over the already "all-round" defender they sunk their pick into.
Because of the trade, the Habs are out of action until the fourth round when they get the 113th and 117th picks. Then it's 147 and 207 and done. With Quebecers bound to be selected, there's little to get too excited about. My hopes remain with our friend Corbeil-Theriault and a couple of scorers who've dropped.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Canadiens Draft Day
Last year, the Canadiens and the draft seemed to be a much more exciting prospect.
For one thing, the Habs stunk in the playoffs, and so the inevitable look to the future became the next best thing. For another, the team had a better pick, and hence lived in the zone where good prospects sometimes linger.
This year, on top of an exciting month of sport, the Canadiens probably tired us out a bit. They had a good run, and we were largely satisfied. The team has a weak stable of picks and free agency looks to be dull. June 2010 is not the month to be looking for 1,000,000 Habs fan hits.
Even so, the draft is still important. It only comes once a year, and the results from tomorrows picks will be debated for years. If we want in on the debate, we might as well be versed on what has gone on and what might have happened had Gauthier and Timmins done it differently.
Last season, I had a change of heart with the draft. In seasons previous, I was quite fond of picking all-rounders, intelligent characters and solid bets. No more. From last year and into this I favour drafting for what is rare. Rather than fishing for smelt, I say dive for pearls. There’s no Cups for fishmongers.
As such, I stick to my new draft day plan:
1) Don't pick the player with the best chance of being an NHLer, pick the one with a chance at being a star
2) Don't even bother picking the types of players you can easily pick up by other means (i.e., OK goalies, defensive defencemen and bottom line forwards)
3) Trade the pick if the organization gets a better asset mix from the swap
This year to me presents a wonderful meeting of my new philosophy and the needs of the organization, in that the hockey world’s rarest skill (true goalscoring ability) is also the Canadiens burning need.
For this draft, I hope the Canadiens management have learned their lessons from years without a scorer (at last check, Richer started his career in the 1980s) that top end scoring can only be addressed via the draft in two ways:
1) The normal way, in which you dedicate a top pick to select a scorer
2) The Red Wings way, in which you take 6 useless prospects and then luck out with a long shot in the 7th round
Now, I know the Habs could do worse than to try and emulate the Red Wings, but frankly this has been their draft strategy for years, for little reward. I think this fact has been recognized (Louis Lebalnc last season) and should be continued into this season’s draft.
With that in mind, I give you my wish list for the first round. It is by no means my prediction for tomorrow’s pick (as I don’t presume to know that), but instead the pick I would make if it were up to me to give the final word in Pierre Gauthier’s earpiece.
I'd target a scorer. One who actually scored in droves this past season.
1. Tyler Toffoli
Tyler has some mixed reviews. For some scouts, he seems to have offensive gifts (“his hans and shot are NHL elite already) that lead to goals. For others, he gets his goals through hard work. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter to me. What matters to me is that he scored 37 goals and 79 points in 65 games this season.
It’s really what others say about Toffoli that impresses me the most:
He certainly seems to tick the boxes for skills you can’t teach (hands, anticipation, size) and has always battled to score at the elite level wherever he has gone so far. As far as scoring at the pick 27 level, it doesn’t get much better than Toffoli (if he’s even available).
2. Teemu Pulkkinen
Mikael Granlund, the reincarnation of Saku Koivu, probably won’t fall to the 27 pick this time. His sidekick called Teemu might just though.
Pulkkinen has been in and around the top of the rankings for this draft since his 15th birthday. Back in 2007, there was time for Taylor vs. Teemu, with Tyler well in the background. But times have changed, Pulkkinen has been injured and progressed differently than expected and the NHL scouts seem to shy from Europeans following some recent debacles.
Hurting Pulkkinen’s showing is the fact he has been playing in the junior league in Finland, which is apparently (even after all these years) a complete puzzle to fit into rankings. In any case, he scored big points (20 goals and 41 points in 17 games), and played with some success for Jokerit in the men’s league. Really though the tipping point was the tournament which put his achievements into context – the recent U18s. At that tournament he outpaced his peers by an impressive margin, showing off his goalscoring and flash by putting up 10 goals and 15 points in 6 games.
Profile
Size is his question mark, but this is nothing new for precocious young scoring talent. If the Habs want to truly hit a home run one day, they’ll have to come through on a player that falls down the draft for one reason or another. Better he fall for size (see Daniel Briere) than ability.
3. Beau Bennett
Bennett to Bennett? Why not?
Beau Bennett is a BCHL prospect, so doesn’t get the full kudos he perhaps deserves for scoring 41 goals and 120 points in 56 games.
In my opinion, the BCHL deserves as much cred as the USHL where the Canadiens currently mine prospects, certainly in light of graduates like Travis Zajac and Scott Gomez.
Once again, it’s the scoring results that impress. He’s not a player who scouts say has hands despite his 19 goal output, they say it and we see it. It means that in addition to the hands and the shot, he has the predatory instincts that junior scorers can sometimes lack come big league time.
Profile
The hesitation with Bennett is that he would only be another in a long line of US college students in the Canadiens stable. Nothing wrong with that in theory, except that at some point, success may have to come with a graduation en masse. Meaning that perhaps constantly waiting out a full college education time after time won't allow for it.
4. Brock Nelson
If we have to go the full US route again, I’d avoid the next Danny Kristo (small USHL scorer) and instead opt for someone just like Brock Nelson.
After all, Brock is already big, and has proven year on year that he does nothing if not score. His high school totals over 2 seasons leave him with 84 goals and 149 points in a mere 56 games. Sure we can question the competition, but that never stopped Timmins before.
Profile
5. Greg McKegg
McKegg is another young phenom who took a few more years than Taylor Hall to round out. But it seems he may be rounding out quite nicely as a scorer again.
We’re now talking about a player who went from 8 goals, 10 assists and minus 13 to 37 goals, 48 assists and plus 18 in a single season. While he’s not big, he’s by no means small, and coming from the OHL will probably have some sense about how to play around the net.
Profile
6. Ludvig Rensfeldt
Rensfeldt is a bit of a wild card here. He put up decent numbers in Swedish Juniors, but nothing to make Pulkkinen blush. Like Teemu, he also showed well at the recent U18s.
But it seems at least to the outsider that scouting on him is patchier. Not surprising, as that is entirely consistent with the average level of NHL scouting for Europe, which consistently misses the best young prospects.
I feel the scouting may be off here. After all, I don't think Sweden is going to be shutout in NHLers after all its recent success in development. Nor do I think that players who learned to practice first and play games later will go out of style just yet. Rensfeldt at 6’3”, 192 lbs and a Swede who can no doubt at least skate a corner, he offers an intriguing swing at the fences for a team like the Habs.
Profile
Players to avoid
Am I the only one who wants a moratorium on offensive defencmen?
There's something about a big defender with offensive upside that catches the imagination of GMs on draft day. There's good reason for that as dreams of Lidstrom and Niedermayer are well founded, but as more GMs and scouts begin to think the same way, the excitement builds beyond th talent base.
In my humble opinion, all offensive defencemen you can be sure about are gone by pick 10. The offensive upside of those around by pick 27 is usually screening their defensive liabilities with smoke.
The list of these picks for the first round is long this time, but includes all the commonly projected picks like McIlraith, Jerome Gathier-Leduc, Mark Pysyk and Alex Petrovic.
Other rounds and other options
Jarred Tinordi
Look, if we have to look to D, take the biggest guy there is. Tinordi is big and probably learned a bit about mean from his Dad. Anyone who remembers Chara's first years in the league will recall that you can teach big to play D, but can't teach D to be biger.
Quebec
The Quebec picks always loom over any draft. In many ways, i wish the concern didn't exist. But by the same token, it makes sense that the Canadiens foster hockey in their own backyard.
Last year, they nabbed a couple of gems with Leblanc and Dumont. This season the Q isn't spitting out much, but like Sweden is bound to produce NHLers.
In my mind, there are a few options:
Micael Bournival: Could be this year's Gabriel Dumont. Hockey's Future references a win at any cost attitude, which I certainly like.
Louis-Marc Aubry: Big and not much else for now. But perhaps he could join the team without the pressure of his name being chanted.
Goaltenders
Regardless of what anyone thinks of Carey Price, we all admit the Canadiens depth in goal throughout the organization is a it thin as of the moment.
As such, Gautheir wll probably be using at leats one selection to choose a goalie for his stocks. If he does, I think a strong case has to be made for him to choose no one other than Mathieu Corbeil-Theriault
Corbeil-Theriault had terrible statistics, 3.83 and 0.883, but he was in an impossible situation. His team was "rebuilding" and so didn't offer the best environment for stats production. But goalies have been known to come out of situations like this well. I seem to remember the Granby Bisons getting quite a lot of goals scored against them in the 1980s, for example.
What I read about the guys impresses me.
There's his dimensions which (we all know from a mere 4" difference) mean the world to canadiens management. But not only that, he also seems to be a quick goaltenders, which I found surprising for a big goalie.
And then there was his performance at the combine. I was stunned to read (in Dylan McIlraith’s preview) that Mathieu had the second best VO2 of all prospects evaluated at the recent combines. Not only is this impressive for anyone, it's especially impressive considering he's an enormous guy and a goalie.
So quickly: size, attitude, quickness and fitness. We didn't know it was possible. Pick him if you can Pierre.
For one thing, the Habs stunk in the playoffs, and so the inevitable look to the future became the next best thing. For another, the team had a better pick, and hence lived in the zone where good prospects sometimes linger.
This year, on top of an exciting month of sport, the Canadiens probably tired us out a bit. They had a good run, and we were largely satisfied. The team has a weak stable of picks and free agency looks to be dull. June 2010 is not the month to be looking for 1,000,000 Habs fan hits.
Even so, the draft is still important. It only comes once a year, and the results from tomorrows picks will be debated for years. If we want in on the debate, we might as well be versed on what has gone on and what might have happened had Gauthier and Timmins done it differently.
Last season, I had a change of heart with the draft. In seasons previous, I was quite fond of picking all-rounders, intelligent characters and solid bets. No more. From last year and into this I favour drafting for what is rare. Rather than fishing for smelt, I say dive for pearls. There’s no Cups for fishmongers.
As such, I stick to my new draft day plan:
1) Don't pick the player with the best chance of being an NHLer, pick the one with a chance at being a star
2) Don't even bother picking the types of players you can easily pick up by other means (i.e., OK goalies, defensive defencemen and bottom line forwards)
3) Trade the pick if the organization gets a better asset mix from the swap
This year to me presents a wonderful meeting of my new philosophy and the needs of the organization, in that the hockey world’s rarest skill (true goalscoring ability) is also the Canadiens burning need.
For this draft, I hope the Canadiens management have learned their lessons from years without a scorer (at last check, Richer started his career in the 1980s) that top end scoring can only be addressed via the draft in two ways:
1) The normal way, in which you dedicate a top pick to select a scorer
2) The Red Wings way, in which you take 6 useless prospects and then luck out with a long shot in the 7th round
Now, I know the Habs could do worse than to try and emulate the Red Wings, but frankly this has been their draft strategy for years, for little reward. I think this fact has been recognized (Louis Lebalnc last season) and should be continued into this season’s draft.
With that in mind, I give you my wish list for the first round. It is by no means my prediction for tomorrow’s pick (as I don’t presume to know that), but instead the pick I would make if it were up to me to give the final word in Pierre Gauthier’s earpiece.
I'd target a scorer. One who actually scored in droves this past season.
1. Tyler Toffoli
Tyler has some mixed reviews. For some scouts, he seems to have offensive gifts (“his hans and shot are NHL elite already) that lead to goals. For others, he gets his goals through hard work. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter to me. What matters to me is that he scored 37 goals and 79 points in 65 games this season.
It’s really what others say about Toffoli that impresses me the most:
“Is not very big in stature for his Ottawa team, but he makes up for that in skill and effort. He’s got 79 points in his 65 games played. He’s got an NHL release and incredible accuracy with his shot. An equal threat whether he’s dishing the puck or shooting the puck himself.”
- Director of NHL Central Scouting, E.J. McGuire
“Tyler Toffoli has great anticipation and hockey sense. His ability to make and finish plays sets him apart from most other players. This season he has developed a good two way game and is strong in his own end.”
- Ottawa 67’s head coach Chris Byrne
He certainly seems to tick the boxes for skills you can’t teach (hands, anticipation, size) and has always battled to score at the elite level wherever he has gone so far. As far as scoring at the pick 27 level, it doesn’t get much better than Toffoli (if he’s even available).
2. Teemu Pulkkinen
Mikael Granlund, the reincarnation of Saku Koivu, probably won’t fall to the 27 pick this time. His sidekick called Teemu might just though.
Pulkkinen has been in and around the top of the rankings for this draft since his 15th birthday. Back in 2007, there was time for Taylor vs. Teemu, with Tyler well in the background. But times have changed, Pulkkinen has been injured and progressed differently than expected and the NHL scouts seem to shy from Europeans following some recent debacles.
Hurting Pulkkinen’s showing is the fact he has been playing in the junior league in Finland, which is apparently (even after all these years) a complete puzzle to fit into rankings. In any case, he scored big points (20 goals and 41 points in 17 games), and played with some success for Jokerit in the men’s league. Really though the tipping point was the tournament which put his achievements into context – the recent U18s. At that tournament he outpaced his peers by an impressive margin, showing off his goalscoring and flash by putting up 10 goals and 15 points in 6 games.
Profile
Size is his question mark, but this is nothing new for precocious young scoring talent. If the Habs want to truly hit a home run one day, they’ll have to come through on a player that falls down the draft for one reason or another. Better he fall for size (see Daniel Briere) than ability.
3. Beau Bennett
Bennett to Bennett? Why not?
Beau Bennett is a BCHL prospect, so doesn’t get the full kudos he perhaps deserves for scoring 41 goals and 120 points in 56 games.
In my opinion, the BCHL deserves as much cred as the USHL where the Canadiens currently mine prospects, certainly in light of graduates like Travis Zajac and Scott Gomez.
Once again, it’s the scoring results that impress. He’s not a player who scouts say has hands despite his 19 goal output, they say it and we see it. It means that in addition to the hands and the shot, he has the predatory instincts that junior scorers can sometimes lack come big league time.
Profile
The hesitation with Bennett is that he would only be another in a long line of US college students in the Canadiens stable. Nothing wrong with that in theory, except that at some point, success may have to come with a graduation en masse. Meaning that perhaps constantly waiting out a full college education time after time won't allow for it.
4. Brock Nelson
If we have to go the full US route again, I’d avoid the next Danny Kristo (small USHL scorer) and instead opt for someone just like Brock Nelson.
After all, Brock is already big, and has proven year on year that he does nothing if not score. His high school totals over 2 seasons leave him with 84 goals and 149 points in a mere 56 games. Sure we can question the competition, but that never stopped Timmins before.
Profile
5. Greg McKegg
McKegg is another young phenom who took a few more years than Taylor Hall to round out. But it seems he may be rounding out quite nicely as a scorer again.
We’re now talking about a player who went from 8 goals, 10 assists and minus 13 to 37 goals, 48 assists and plus 18 in a single season. While he’s not big, he’s by no means small, and coming from the OHL will probably have some sense about how to play around the net.
Profile
6. Ludvig Rensfeldt
Rensfeldt is a bit of a wild card here. He put up decent numbers in Swedish Juniors, but nothing to make Pulkkinen blush. Like Teemu, he also showed well at the recent U18s.
But it seems at least to the outsider that scouting on him is patchier. Not surprising, as that is entirely consistent with the average level of NHL scouting for Europe, which consistently misses the best young prospects.
I feel the scouting may be off here. After all, I don't think Sweden is going to be shutout in NHLers after all its recent success in development. Nor do I think that players who learned to practice first and play games later will go out of style just yet. Rensfeldt at 6’3”, 192 lbs and a Swede who can no doubt at least skate a corner, he offers an intriguing swing at the fences for a team like the Habs.
Profile
Players to avoid
Am I the only one who wants a moratorium on offensive defencmen?
There's something about a big defender with offensive upside that catches the imagination of GMs on draft day. There's good reason for that as dreams of Lidstrom and Niedermayer are well founded, but as more GMs and scouts begin to think the same way, the excitement builds beyond th talent base.
In my humble opinion, all offensive defencemen you can be sure about are gone by pick 10. The offensive upside of those around by pick 27 is usually screening their defensive liabilities with smoke.
The list of these picks for the first round is long this time, but includes all the commonly projected picks like McIlraith, Jerome Gathier-Leduc, Mark Pysyk and Alex Petrovic.
Other rounds and other options
Jarred Tinordi
Look, if we have to look to D, take the biggest guy there is. Tinordi is big and probably learned a bit about mean from his Dad. Anyone who remembers Chara's first years in the league will recall that you can teach big to play D, but can't teach D to be biger.
Quebec
The Quebec picks always loom over any draft. In many ways, i wish the concern didn't exist. But by the same token, it makes sense that the Canadiens foster hockey in their own backyard.
Last year, they nabbed a couple of gems with Leblanc and Dumont. This season the Q isn't spitting out much, but like Sweden is bound to produce NHLers.
In my mind, there are a few options:
Micael Bournival: Could be this year's Gabriel Dumont. Hockey's Future references a win at any cost attitude, which I certainly like.
Louis-Marc Aubry: Big and not much else for now. But perhaps he could join the team without the pressure of his name being chanted.
Goaltenders
Regardless of what anyone thinks of Carey Price, we all admit the Canadiens depth in goal throughout the organization is a it thin as of the moment.
As such, Gautheir wll probably be using at leats one selection to choose a goalie for his stocks. If he does, I think a strong case has to be made for him to choose no one other than Mathieu Corbeil-Theriault
Corbeil-Theriault had terrible statistics, 3.83 and 0.883, but he was in an impossible situation. His team was "rebuilding" and so didn't offer the best environment for stats production. But goalies have been known to come out of situations like this well. I seem to remember the Granby Bisons getting quite a lot of goals scored against them in the 1980s, for example.
What I read about the guys impresses me.
There's his dimensions which (we all know from a mere 4" difference) mean the world to canadiens management. But not only that, he also seems to be a quick goaltenders, which I found surprising for a big goalie.
“I was so impressed with Corbeil's quickness for a big goalie. When you see him you won't believe how quick he is for a big guy (6’6”, 186 lbs). Very controlled and soft pads, no big rebounds. Corbeil has an excellent feel for the game. He's very good at controlling his rebounds."
- NHL Central Scouting's Al Jensen
And then there was his performance at the combine. I was stunned to read (in Dylan McIlraith’s preview) that Mathieu had the second best VO2 of all prospects evaluated at the recent combines. Not only is this impressive for anyone, it's especially impressive considering he's an enormous guy and a goalie.
So quickly: size, attitude, quickness and fitness. We didn't know it was possible. Pick him if you can Pierre.
Pre-Draft Considerations
The NHL daft is tomorrow and the Canadiens, despite their best efforts to trade a slew of picks lately, still have some picking to do. As such, we’ll watch with mild interest as Timmins and his staff already put out to gardening leave select youngsters.
I’m looking through lists to tell you what I think. But until then, some general thoughts worth considering with regard to the draft:
Size still dazzles
I’ll admit it, you just can’t teach size. The problem in judging 18 year-olds is that you can never tell if they’ll be gentle giants or feisty midgets when faced with pro opposition (think Gionta vs. Pouliot). Yet size still dazzles a scout. But where one or two big guys will no doubt make creditable NHL careers from their selection, it seems to me many big first rounders also find “German hockey” far too quickly.
There’s a threshold between guy who has scored and goalscorer
I’m not exactly sure what it is, but there’s definitely a difference between a guy who happened to score goals in junior and a player with a true talent for it. Be wary of the 20-goal man with alleged incredible hands, as there’s more to goalscoring than hands (isn’t that right Andrei?). At a certain point though, scouting ceases to matter though. Just because a scout can’t put a finger on why a guy has scored 40 goals shouldn’t discourage people from taking a chance.
American defencemen are terribly overrated as a group
Always lining up an impressive group with size and apparent skill, the American Ds are often among the more prominent flops. It’s worth considering that big American D prospects are nothing new and that the US National team still doesn’t have a good defensive group t choose from. It may not be coincidence.
Swedish forwards underrated this year
On the opposite side of the coin, when have you known a Swedish generation to be totally bereft of know-how up front. Despite the perennial snub from the prognosticators (with the exception of the love in last year), the Swedish forwards probably deserve more respect than they get. Many, for example could do just as well as in the QMJHL if they cared for poutine over smoked herring.
Quebeckers play in a strange league
Picking Quebecois players is more difficult than pickng Western teens because they play in a league that is worlds apart from the NHL. People will always be wary of the Daigle scenario. But not to be ignored is the phenomenon that seems to be the Quebecois role player. Picking them out from the crowd, though. I’m glad I’m not charged with that task.
Everyone is compared to a successful NHLer
It must be human nature to look for the best possible scenario because there are always a lot of future Scott Stevens, Mark Recchis and Bryan Trottiers. The reality is, these comparisons have been bandied about for years on end. In fact, it might be useful to compile a database of what being the next Scott Stevens actually means for a prospect – that is, he’ll actually have a 98% chance of being the next Brent Bilodeau.
Trading up is probably a mistake
Scouting departments should take a good look in the mirror before trading up. Of course, there’s always the chance of getting caught up in the excitement of the day, but trading up means trading one gamble for another. It often means trading 2 or 3 gambles for one. Odds tell us that after pick 5-8 goes by, volume is the better strategy.
Organizational needs won’t be the same by the time the selected start playing pro
One never knows what surprises are around the corner for an organization. One year you have the Vezina, Hart goaltender of the future, a couple of years and no goalie picks later, you’re icing David Aebischer in crucial games. OK, it’s not the best example as Price and Halak were coming through, but you understand. Picking for organizational balance at a single draft is not my favourite tactic unless the cupboard is absolutely (and I mean Heino-Lindberg) bare. Instead pick the best players always and fill the cupboard the other 363 days of the year.
I’m looking through lists to tell you what I think. But until then, some general thoughts worth considering with regard to the draft:
Size still dazzles
I’ll admit it, you just can’t teach size. The problem in judging 18 year-olds is that you can never tell if they’ll be gentle giants or feisty midgets when faced with pro opposition (think Gionta vs. Pouliot). Yet size still dazzles a scout. But where one or two big guys will no doubt make creditable NHL careers from their selection, it seems to me many big first rounders also find “German hockey” far too quickly.
There’s a threshold between guy who has scored and goalscorer
I’m not exactly sure what it is, but there’s definitely a difference between a guy who happened to score goals in junior and a player with a true talent for it. Be wary of the 20-goal man with alleged incredible hands, as there’s more to goalscoring than hands (isn’t that right Andrei?). At a certain point though, scouting ceases to matter though. Just because a scout can’t put a finger on why a guy has scored 40 goals shouldn’t discourage people from taking a chance.
American defencemen are terribly overrated as a group
Always lining up an impressive group with size and apparent skill, the American Ds are often among the more prominent flops. It’s worth considering that big American D prospects are nothing new and that the US National team still doesn’t have a good defensive group t choose from. It may not be coincidence.
Swedish forwards underrated this year
On the opposite side of the coin, when have you known a Swedish generation to be totally bereft of know-how up front. Despite the perennial snub from the prognosticators (with the exception of the love in last year), the Swedish forwards probably deserve more respect than they get. Many, for example could do just as well as in the QMJHL if they cared for poutine over smoked herring.
Quebeckers play in a strange league
Picking Quebecois players is more difficult than pickng Western teens because they play in a league that is worlds apart from the NHL. People will always be wary of the Daigle scenario. But not to be ignored is the phenomenon that seems to be the Quebecois role player. Picking them out from the crowd, though. I’m glad I’m not charged with that task.
Everyone is compared to a successful NHLer
It must be human nature to look for the best possible scenario because there are always a lot of future Scott Stevens, Mark Recchis and Bryan Trottiers. The reality is, these comparisons have been bandied about for years on end. In fact, it might be useful to compile a database of what being the next Scott Stevens actually means for a prospect – that is, he’ll actually have a 98% chance of being the next Brent Bilodeau.
Trading up is probably a mistake
Scouting departments should take a good look in the mirror before trading up. Of course, there’s always the chance of getting caught up in the excitement of the day, but trading up means trading one gamble for another. It often means trading 2 or 3 gambles for one. Odds tell us that after pick 5-8 goes by, volume is the better strategy.
Organizational needs won’t be the same by the time the selected start playing pro
One never knows what surprises are around the corner for an organization. One year you have the Vezina, Hart goaltender of the future, a couple of years and no goalie picks later, you’re icing David Aebischer in crucial games. OK, it’s not the best example as Price and Halak were coming through, but you understand. Picking for organizational balance at a single draft is not my favourite tactic unless the cupboard is absolutely (and I mean Heino-Lindberg) bare. Instead pick the best players always and fill the cupboard the other 363 days of the year.
Central Scouting Rankings
Has anyone else ever wondered why the Central Scouting Bureau seems to be able to compile data from multiple leagues on either side of the Atlantic, but seem incapable of evaluating North American and European talent on the same list?
It seems to me there's as much variety between playing in the Czech junior league and the KHL as there is between the Czech junior league and the USHL. Maybe that's just me.
It certainly has always made the task of previewing a draft very interesting, as relative ranks often seem almost dreamt up.
I guess it creates a need for interpreters and speculators like us bloggers and Bob McKenzie, so I'll not complain any further.
It seems to me there's as much variety between playing in the Czech junior league and the KHL as there is between the Czech junior league and the USHL. Maybe that's just me.
It certainly has always made the task of previewing a draft very interesting, as relative ranks often seem almost dreamt up.
I guess it creates a need for interpreters and speculators like us bloggers and Bob McKenzie, so I'll not complain any further.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
The Skew Of The Draft
Those of you paying attention will have noticed that the Boston Bruins today traded their own forst round draft pick (15th overall) in a bunble that was sent to Florida for Nathan Horton.
Analysis of that trade aside, let's dwell a moment on the 15th pick shall we?
Does it puzzle anyone else how Boston earns the right to the very best pick for playoff teams when Montreal garners pick #27?
Boston won the same number of regular season games as the Canadiens, yet gathered 3 more OTLs and points. Boston won a playoff round and won exactly two less playoff game than the Habs this spring. Yet there they are 12 picks ahead.
Now I understand what the draft rankings we see all over the place have done. The non-playoff teams come first in reverse order (barring a shift with due to lottery pick, which didn't happen this year). Following that, it seems to me that all the playoff teams that won either one round or none are again stratified on regular season results. Then, because the reward of losing later must be so great, the conference finalists, Stanley Cup runner up and Champion Blackhawks.
My question is this: Why factor playoff success at all if you're not going to do it properly?
As I said, the Canadiens won 9 of 19 playoff games, the Bruins 7 of 13. Sure it's an extra round. But then why don't the sabres then get a better pick than the Bruins. Surely the sometimes hapless Avalanche, a first round victim and final playoff qualifier in the West deserve a better pick than the Habs, but why not better than the Bruins?
It's a strange formula it seems, with latter winners like Boston and Pittsburgh.
For one round, this might pass. But the fact that Montreal will pick 12 places less than its rival Boston in every round is silly.
And I'm only a Habs fan. How do you tell a Buffalo Sabres fan that they'll pick 3 places after Pittsburgh in every round. Pittsburgh had more points than the sabres in the season, more wins, won an extra playoff round, had more playoff wins and earned more revenue in doing so. Not to mention the NHL has never done Buffalo any favours, but its sweetheart Pens somehow come out winners here again.
Once again, the NHL just doesn't seem to find ways to make sense.
Analysis of that trade aside, let's dwell a moment on the 15th pick shall we?
Does it puzzle anyone else how Boston earns the right to the very best pick for playoff teams when Montreal garners pick #27?
Boston won the same number of regular season games as the Canadiens, yet gathered 3 more OTLs and points. Boston won a playoff round and won exactly two less playoff game than the Habs this spring. Yet there they are 12 picks ahead.
Now I understand what the draft rankings we see all over the place have done. The non-playoff teams come first in reverse order (barring a shift with due to lottery pick, which didn't happen this year). Following that, it seems to me that all the playoff teams that won either one round or none are again stratified on regular season results. Then, because the reward of losing later must be so great, the conference finalists, Stanley Cup runner up and Champion Blackhawks.
My question is this: Why factor playoff success at all if you're not going to do it properly?
As I said, the Canadiens won 9 of 19 playoff games, the Bruins 7 of 13. Sure it's an extra round. But then why don't the sabres then get a better pick than the Bruins. Surely the sometimes hapless Avalanche, a first round victim and final playoff qualifier in the West deserve a better pick than the Habs, but why not better than the Bruins?
It's a strange formula it seems, with latter winners like Boston and Pittsburgh.
For one round, this might pass. But the fact that Montreal will pick 12 places less than its rival Boston in every round is silly.
And I'm only a Habs fan. How do you tell a Buffalo Sabres fan that they'll pick 3 places after Pittsburgh in every round. Pittsburgh had more points than the sabres in the season, more wins, won an extra playoff round, had more playoff wins and earned more revenue in doing so. Not to mention the NHL has never done Buffalo any favours, but its sweetheart Pens somehow come out winners here again.
Once again, the NHL just doesn't seem to find ways to make sense.
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