Has anyone else ever wondered why the Central Scouting Bureau seems to be able to compile data from multiple leagues on either side of the Atlantic, but seem incapable of evaluating North American and European talent on the same list?
It seems to me there's as much variety between playing in the Czech junior league and the KHL as there is between the Czech junior league and the USHL. Maybe that's just me.
It certainly has always made the task of previewing a draft very interesting, as relative ranks often seem almost dreamt up.
I guess it creates a need for interpreters and speculators like us bloggers and Bob McKenzie, so I'll not complain any further.
Showing posts with label Scouting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Scouting. Show all posts
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Look to the East: The Looming Threat of European Money
Having briefly touched upon the subject of IIHF treaties and transfer agreements in a piece more than a week ago (see The Future Habs D: Transfers and Treaties).
Interestingly for Tobalev and I, this sparked a number of conversations with people actually at the tournament and who had been reading our piece. What's more, one friend who is closer to the game than us was able to enlighten us quite a bit on this topic. He mentioned that he found our piece timely, seeing as the IIHF transfer agreement was the talk of the town in Halifax and Quebec, where the Europeans were gathered for the games.
Obviously since I wrote that last piece, the championships have ended, Russia has won and celebrated like it mattered to them and no Habs are playing hockey anymore. Even so, the transfer agreement looms over the NHL, and indeed the Canadiens off-season planning, and deserves a second look.
The talk of the tournament
At the moment, apparently most of the talk on the transfer agreement is focused on which players from the NHL will jump ship and take a payday in Russia. This is because Russian teams, already in their off-season, have been making offers to many top players in Europe and North America. The money may be such that NHL will be left with no choice but to let these players go.
Far from being the only concern for the NHL, the Czechs are already looking at not entering into a new agreement, and the same might be true of Sweden. The general feeling at the tournament, apparently, was that no agreement would be reached in the near future, at least. So, one would speculate that even the teams from other leagues in Finland, Germany and Switzerland wouldn't be far behind either once the big players drop out.
Personally, I think this is serious, and I see the absence of the agreement with the European clubs potentially affecting the league in three ways:
1) A temporary drop in Europeans across the league
2) More aggressive (and possibly longer-term) NHL contracts with flight risk players
3) A shift in power among clubs (those that can still tap European talent vs. those that resort to North Americans who would be classed as minor leaguers at the moment)
Less Europeans
A drop in the numbers of Europeans in the league could be viewed as a good or a bad thing. I can hear Don Cherry's "Let them go!", even now.
For me, I would consider it to be a large step backwards. After all, the last time the NHL was replete of Europeans, there were only 21 teams. At that time, the top teams were the top teams, but the argument could have been made that there was still not enough NHL-level talent coming out of Canada and the US (to some degree) to support so many teams. Imagine now trying to stock 30 teams with Canadian and US players only. The initial drop in play would be difficult to take. Never mind that many European players are also among the more skilled and most excellent at skating – the direction we thought the league was meant to be headed.
Interestingly, in our discussion it also came up that Russia, after all, is not currently the greatest place in the world to spend your youth. This is particularly true of the Siberian towns where the oil magnates operate their mega clubs. Other than Russians, the feeling is that no one wants to sign for more than one year in Russia right now. The lifestyle has not improved to the point for anyone to go there too long.
NHL GMs should not be resting on their laurels,though. This situation could, and will likely, change as Russian living conditions improve and as the list of overseas options includes countries like Sweden and Switzerland. Indeed, one need only ask the North Americans who have made tracks over to those leagues rather than toil in the AHL or lower leagues. We speculated about Finns and particularly Swedes (who already show their desires to return home on plenty of occasions – Naslund, Forsberg). If Sweden and Finland drop out of the agreement, the problem of losing players could get more serious.
The inevitability of the drop is real, though – even with only Russia and the Czechs on the outs. People in the know keep stating how the money coming out of the European leagues is bigger than before and those teams can afford to poach a player or two from "big" NHL clubs. The simple fact there are many times more clubs in Europe will put the onus on the NHL to stem the tide – as opposed to hoping all European clubs run dry of cash.
More aggressive contracts
An initial reaction will no doubt be to hold onto the Europeans who figure large in the plans of your club. Pittsburgh and Washington will likely ante up big for Malkin and Ovechkin, and why shouldn't they. However, teams like Montreal, New York, Dallas, etc. who are currently riding a cast of middle range European talent may be asked to pay over the odds for their players.
While the tactic of aggressive contracts to Europeans could indeed help to stem the tide of Europeans out of the NHL initially, there are only so many big contracts a team, and the league can sustain.
Power shift
Following a partial loss of talent and vain attempts to offer contracts, I see certain clubs giving up on the Euro game. Others will stick it out. This is the power shift – with access to more talented players open only to those willing to put up with the hassle. I spoke about this potential shift in power in the last piece as well. I truly believe that with any change in circumstances there comes a pressure to adapt. The teams that adapt the quickest and best will be the ones who form "dynasties" in the near future.
I cited the scouting of Detroit (particularly in Sweden) as the foundation of their rise to prominence once the NHL opened its doors wholesale to the European leagues in the early 1990s. Similarly, a team who positions itself to perform real and serious negotiations with Russian teams now – and other European teams later – will reap the harvest of European surplus fed by the exodus of Euro NHLers.
When asked, our friend in the know agreed that having someone who knows how the system works would be very valuable to any team. He noted how teams in Europe do things so differently, an NHL team trying to negotiate the situation would need an insider who knows how the system works.
Really, he said, it’s just a matter of being smart and getting a good Russian (for the current situation anyway) on your side.
What now for the Habs?
Obviously, it comes back to the Canadiens. While I am concerned about the NHL as a whole in so far as it provides the Canadiens with a league to compete with the best clubs in the world; I am not overly concerned with the plight of teams who may fall down because of a resistance to change or lack of adaptability. What concerns me is that the Habs get a leg up here for the next 10 years.
In terms of current players, the Habs probably have to resign themselves to losing Grabovski. We have been hearing that the word on the street is that he is at least entertaining offers. The writing seemed on the wall for him, as he keeps coming up short on lower lines and is not likely to unseat either Koivu or Plekanec for a top line spot.
The Habs will have to make serious strategic decisions, however, about key players like the Kostitsyns (are both to be kept???), Halak, and the youngsters in the pipeline (notably Valentenko.
As for mining the Russian league for talent at the current time, my friend and I were at a loggerheads. I suspect this is because there is no right answer.
My feeling is that the Habs should take advantage of the mass of NHL clubs who are clearly shying away from Russians by having a look at what's available – or at least letting young Russians know that Montreal is interested in players who want to play for the Stanley Cup.
My friend, who not only works in hockey, watched the World Champs and just generally is much better versed in this kind of stuff than I am warns the Canadiens GM to stay away:
While I find his argument very convincing, I still find myself looking at Detroit again and thinking about finding the Russian Kronwalls, Franzens and Zetterbergs.
I don't know. What do you all think?
If nothing else, I think we'll all be talking about this soon enough, if not just now...
Interestingly for Tobalev and I, this sparked a number of conversations with people actually at the tournament and who had been reading our piece. What's more, one friend who is closer to the game than us was able to enlighten us quite a bit on this topic. He mentioned that he found our piece timely, seeing as the IIHF transfer agreement was the talk of the town in Halifax and Quebec, where the Europeans were gathered for the games.
Obviously since I wrote that last piece, the championships have ended, Russia has won and celebrated like it mattered to them and no Habs are playing hockey anymore. Even so, the transfer agreement looms over the NHL, and indeed the Canadiens off-season planning, and deserves a second look.
The talk of the tournament
At the moment, apparently most of the talk on the transfer agreement is focused on which players from the NHL will jump ship and take a payday in Russia. This is because Russian teams, already in their off-season, have been making offers to many top players in Europe and North America. The money may be such that NHL will be left with no choice but to let these players go.
Far from being the only concern for the NHL, the Czechs are already looking at not entering into a new agreement, and the same might be true of Sweden. The general feeling at the tournament, apparently, was that no agreement would be reached in the near future, at least. So, one would speculate that even the teams from other leagues in Finland, Germany and Switzerland wouldn't be far behind either once the big players drop out.
Personally, I think this is serious, and I see the absence of the agreement with the European clubs potentially affecting the league in three ways:
1) A temporary drop in Europeans across the league
2) More aggressive (and possibly longer-term) NHL contracts with flight risk players
3) A shift in power among clubs (those that can still tap European talent vs. those that resort to North Americans who would be classed as minor leaguers at the moment)
Less Europeans
A drop in the numbers of Europeans in the league could be viewed as a good or a bad thing. I can hear Don Cherry's "Let them go!", even now.
For me, I would consider it to be a large step backwards. After all, the last time the NHL was replete of Europeans, there were only 21 teams. At that time, the top teams were the top teams, but the argument could have been made that there was still not enough NHL-level talent coming out of Canada and the US (to some degree) to support so many teams. Imagine now trying to stock 30 teams with Canadian and US players only. The initial drop in play would be difficult to take. Never mind that many European players are also among the more skilled and most excellent at skating – the direction we thought the league was meant to be headed.
Interestingly, in our discussion it also came up that Russia, after all, is not currently the greatest place in the world to spend your youth. This is particularly true of the Siberian towns where the oil magnates operate their mega clubs. Other than Russians, the feeling is that no one wants to sign for more than one year in Russia right now. The lifestyle has not improved to the point for anyone to go there too long.
NHL GMs should not be resting on their laurels,though. This situation could, and will likely, change as Russian living conditions improve and as the list of overseas options includes countries like Sweden and Switzerland. Indeed, one need only ask the North Americans who have made tracks over to those leagues rather than toil in the AHL or lower leagues. We speculated about Finns and particularly Swedes (who already show their desires to return home on plenty of occasions – Naslund, Forsberg). If Sweden and Finland drop out of the agreement, the problem of losing players could get more serious.
The inevitability of the drop is real, though – even with only Russia and the Czechs on the outs. People in the know keep stating how the money coming out of the European leagues is bigger than before and those teams can afford to poach a player or two from "big" NHL clubs. The simple fact there are many times more clubs in Europe will put the onus on the NHL to stem the tide – as opposed to hoping all European clubs run dry of cash.
More aggressive contracts
An initial reaction will no doubt be to hold onto the Europeans who figure large in the plans of your club. Pittsburgh and Washington will likely ante up big for Malkin and Ovechkin, and why shouldn't they. However, teams like Montreal, New York, Dallas, etc. who are currently riding a cast of middle range European talent may be asked to pay over the odds for their players.
While the tactic of aggressive contracts to Europeans could indeed help to stem the tide of Europeans out of the NHL initially, there are only so many big contracts a team, and the league can sustain.
Power shift
Following a partial loss of talent and vain attempts to offer contracts, I see certain clubs giving up on the Euro game. Others will stick it out. This is the power shift – with access to more talented players open only to those willing to put up with the hassle. I spoke about this potential shift in power in the last piece as well. I truly believe that with any change in circumstances there comes a pressure to adapt. The teams that adapt the quickest and best will be the ones who form "dynasties" in the near future.
I cited the scouting of Detroit (particularly in Sweden) as the foundation of their rise to prominence once the NHL opened its doors wholesale to the European leagues in the early 1990s. Similarly, a team who positions itself to perform real and serious negotiations with Russian teams now – and other European teams later – will reap the harvest of European surplus fed by the exodus of Euro NHLers.
When asked, our friend in the know agreed that having someone who knows how the system works would be very valuable to any team. He noted how teams in Europe do things so differently, an NHL team trying to negotiate the situation would need an insider who knows how the system works.
"Everyone calls it the wild west cause there’s no rules, it’s all gangsters and making/taking bribes."
Really, he said, it’s just a matter of being smart and getting a good Russian (for the current situation anyway) on your side.
What now for the Habs?
Obviously, it comes back to the Canadiens. While I am concerned about the NHL as a whole in so far as it provides the Canadiens with a league to compete with the best clubs in the world; I am not overly concerned with the plight of teams who may fall down because of a resistance to change or lack of adaptability. What concerns me is that the Habs get a leg up here for the next 10 years.
In terms of current players, the Habs probably have to resign themselves to losing Grabovski. We have been hearing that the word on the street is that he is at least entertaining offers. The writing seemed on the wall for him, as he keeps coming up short on lower lines and is not likely to unseat either Koivu or Plekanec for a top line spot.
The Habs will have to make serious strategic decisions, however, about key players like the Kostitsyns (are both to be kept???), Halak, and the youngsters in the pipeline (notably Valentenko.
As for mining the Russian league for talent at the current time, my friend and I were at a loggerheads. I suspect this is because there is no right answer.
My feeling is that the Habs should take advantage of the mass of NHL clubs who are clearly shying away from Russians by having a look at what's available – or at least letting young Russians know that Montreal is interested in players who want to play for the Stanley Cup.
My friend, who not only works in hockey, watched the World Champs and just generally is much better versed in this kind of stuff than I am warns the Canadiens GM to stay away:
There’s a reason these guys don’t play in the NHL. They aren’t driven by being the best in the world, or part of the best team in the world or a need to be challenged by the best. You don’t need someone or your team who plays the game for a living and cause it’s all he knows.
While I find his argument very convincing, I still find myself looking at Detroit again and thinking about finding the Russian Kronwalls, Franzens and Zetterbergs.
I don't know. What do you all think?
If nothing else, I think we'll all be talking about this soon enough, if not just now...
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Streit Ahead: Of Scouting and Gambles
Mark Streit is definitely the surprise of the season for me on the Canadiens. I'm not the only person to have noticed. The league is noticing too.
Andrei Kostitsyn becoming a highlight reel stalwart and 20-goal man in February, I might have imagined. Carey Price as a starter, it may be soon, but we all knew right from training camp that it was coming. Patrice Brisebois hanging on - nothing about him and the Habs could surprise me anymore after the re-signing.
If you would have told me Mark Streit's 2006-2007 was not a flash in the pan, I would have laughed. If you would have told me that he would have the same number of goals and points as Koivu in March, I would have asked if we'd ever have thought Koivu would be on pace for 25 points.
12 goals, 37 assists. In sync with Markov and Kovalev on the PP. Plays any position but goalie. Wow!
We are lucky to have him and we were lucky to ever get him. Streit's career prior to 2005 said anything but NHL PP quarterback and second-line winger.
Take the fact that Mark comes from Switzerland. Oh sure, we're happy to call the Swiss a hockey nation now (after they beat Canada and the Czechs at the last Olympic tournament), but when Streit was coming through the ranks a Swiss hockey prospect was akin to a Canadian ski jumping prospect.
Consider also that he made the jump to North America on his own in 1999 to improve his chances at cracking the big leagues. He didn't fail miserably. But he hardly did enough to sway the cantankerous old boys of the NHL to open their minds to players from the shadows of the Alps. Perhaps in the end it was his last game in North America before packing up for the Swiss A league - a one-game stint in Utah that would turn fate in his favour as Habs scouts overseeing their own slow-cook prospect projects may have noticed his skating and skills that day.
A further 4 seasons in Switzerland would see Mark temporarily resign himself to making his winter home in Europe and if nothing else helped him to develop his game further offensively. In 2004, some lucky scout earned a bonus when he advised Bob Gainey that Swiss hockey had come far enough to merit a 9th round pick for the best Swiss player of a generation. The following season with some NHL competition (and indeed help), Mark Streit would go on to justify the draft pick as he outshone a vast number of established pros in his own backyard during the lockout follies in Europe.
Looking at all I've written, I ask whether I'd be surprised if Streit were a Swedish or Canadian prospect blooming late. In fact, I'm sure many of the GMs in the league share the same attitudes.
So, while we thank our lucky stars for Mark Streit falling right into the laps of the Canadiens for nothing more than a late afternoon afterthought on draft day 2; there are lessons to be learned from the case of Mark Streit:
1) Hockey players can come from anywhere (even Switzerland, Austria, Belarus and Slovenia now).
If the Habs want to maintain a competitive advantage, continuing to look to these relatively untapped resources for bargains. It looks like the trend will continue for a while as we watch Yannick Weber develop and accept that Janne Lahti was a worthwhile gamble, if not an NHL player. We could also stay a step ahead by asking where is next for hockey players to emerge unnoticed.
2) It's worth taking a chance on standouts from "weaker" leagues.
As other teams trawl the third lines of WHL teams, picking a star from Switzerland, Germany or Austria is worth the gamble. You can always sign those fourth liners later.
3) Make place for talent on your team
As Streit battled for a 7th defenseman place, it was judicious to allow him to play forward where he could develop his skills at a high level. A talented skater and puck-handler is always valuable to a team no matter what way his stick is curved or what letter appears beside his name on the gamesheet.
A potential gamble for 2008
Thinking about Streit and how eyes should be peeled for the next unheralded NHL breakthrough I decided to take a quick look at the Swiss A League standings and statistics.
Nothing but the best for the Habs, of course, I looked up Erik Westrum.
So, he's from Minnesota. Check.
He played for the Springfield Falcons and Utah Grizzlies like Streit. Check.
After trying to make it in North America, he turned to the Swiss League, where he picked up his offensive numbers. Check.
What's even more interesting is that Erik's Dad is Pat Westrum, the Montreal Canadiens hotshot scout. We look no further than Minnesota for first round picks anymore, since Pat knows his stuff.
Could he be submitting a positive report on a wayward overage Minnesota boy this summer? We'll have to wait and see.
Andrei Kostitsyn becoming a highlight reel stalwart and 20-goal man in February, I might have imagined. Carey Price as a starter, it may be soon, but we all knew right from training camp that it was coming. Patrice Brisebois hanging on - nothing about him and the Habs could surprise me anymore after the re-signing.
If you would have told me Mark Streit's 2006-2007 was not a flash in the pan, I would have laughed. If you would have told me that he would have the same number of goals and points as Koivu in March, I would have asked if we'd ever have thought Koivu would be on pace for 25 points.
12 goals, 37 assists. In sync with Markov and Kovalev on the PP. Plays any position but goalie. Wow!
We are lucky to have him and we were lucky to ever get him. Streit's career prior to 2005 said anything but NHL PP quarterback and second-line winger.
Take the fact that Mark comes from Switzerland. Oh sure, we're happy to call the Swiss a hockey nation now (after they beat Canada and the Czechs at the last Olympic tournament), but when Streit was coming through the ranks a Swiss hockey prospect was akin to a Canadian ski jumping prospect.
Consider also that he made the jump to North America on his own in 1999 to improve his chances at cracking the big leagues. He didn't fail miserably. But he hardly did enough to sway the cantankerous old boys of the NHL to open their minds to players from the shadows of the Alps. Perhaps in the end it was his last game in North America before packing up for the Swiss A league - a one-game stint in Utah that would turn fate in his favour as Habs scouts overseeing their own slow-cook prospect projects may have noticed his skating and skills that day.
A further 4 seasons in Switzerland would see Mark temporarily resign himself to making his winter home in Europe and if nothing else helped him to develop his game further offensively. In 2004, some lucky scout earned a bonus when he advised Bob Gainey that Swiss hockey had come far enough to merit a 9th round pick for the best Swiss player of a generation. The following season with some NHL competition (and indeed help), Mark Streit would go on to justify the draft pick as he outshone a vast number of established pros in his own backyard during the lockout follies in Europe.
Looking at all I've written, I ask whether I'd be surprised if Streit were a Swedish or Canadian prospect blooming late. In fact, I'm sure many of the GMs in the league share the same attitudes.
So, while we thank our lucky stars for Mark Streit falling right into the laps of the Canadiens for nothing more than a late afternoon afterthought on draft day 2; there are lessons to be learned from the case of Mark Streit:
1) Hockey players can come from anywhere (even Switzerland, Austria, Belarus and Slovenia now).
If the Habs want to maintain a competitive advantage, continuing to look to these relatively untapped resources for bargains. It looks like the trend will continue for a while as we watch Yannick Weber develop and accept that Janne Lahti was a worthwhile gamble, if not an NHL player. We could also stay a step ahead by asking where is next for hockey players to emerge unnoticed.
2) It's worth taking a chance on standouts from "weaker" leagues.
As other teams trawl the third lines of WHL teams, picking a star from Switzerland, Germany or Austria is worth the gamble. You can always sign those fourth liners later.
3) Make place for talent on your team
As Streit battled for a 7th defenseman place, it was judicious to allow him to play forward where he could develop his skills at a high level. A talented skater and puck-handler is always valuable to a team no matter what way his stick is curved or what letter appears beside his name on the gamesheet.
A potential gamble for 2008
Thinking about Streit and how eyes should be peeled for the next unheralded NHL breakthrough I decided to take a quick look at the Swiss A League standings and statistics.
Nothing but the best for the Habs, of course, I looked up Erik Westrum.
So, he's from Minnesota. Check.
He played for the Springfield Falcons and Utah Grizzlies like Streit. Check.
After trying to make it in North America, he turned to the Swiss League, where he picked up his offensive numbers. Check.
What's even more interesting is that Erik's Dad is Pat Westrum, the Montreal Canadiens hotshot scout. We look no further than Minnesota for first round picks anymore, since Pat knows his stuff.
Could he be submitting a positive report on a wayward overage Minnesota boy this summer? We'll have to wait and see.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)