Just Stop

The Habs are 2-1, not 22-10.

If you want to hold Therrien's corontation. Stop.

Quiet Frenzy

Well, it was a rough end to the season. Now that the UFA frenzy is almost upon us, it's a lot easier to be optimistic and have us all jump back on the Habwagon. Given that I managed to call Erik Cole last year, I figured I should give another stab at my dream UFA acquisition for this year. Anybody up for speculating on the roster come fall?

Goalies
Start with the easy part. The Habs have entered salary arbitration with Price, which makes it sound like there might be some bad feelings between him and management. However, this is a canny strategic move that prevents other GMs pulling “gutless” moves (Brian Burke's word) and submitting offer sheets to drive up Price's salary. We have Budaj for another year at $1.15M. Given we need someone to play the 15 or so games Price doesn't start, Budaj is a good fit at a good price.

It's a bit of no-brainer that Price will be signed this year, although I'm having difficulty figuring out for how much. Somewhere near $5M would be my guess. What do you guys think?

Defencemen
There's a good crop of returning defencemen, with a pile of RFAs on the roster as well. The only D-man who goes into unrestricted free agency is Campoli, and I really don't expect to see him back. We have Markov ($5.75M, 2 yrs), Gorges ($3.9M, 6 yr), Weber (850k, 1 yr and then RFA), and sadly, Kaberle (an unbelievable $4.25M for another 2 years). Obviously, we'd love to get rid of him, but there isn't a GM in the league who would take him off our hands. Hopefully the new CBA will allow us to get him off from around the neck of the team, but I don't think we can hold our breaths. On the RFA scene, we have Emelin, Nash, Diaz, Subban, and St.-Denis. 

I could see possibly keeping St.-Denis and Nash for depth, but they aren't big pieces of the puzzle. In my opinion, Subban is second only in terms of Price in terms of priority for team signing. I'm also a huge fan of Emelin, and would love to have him on the CH blueline for years to come from what I've seen from him this season. Also a fan of Diaz, he's got a good sense of what's going on around him and a good shot from the point. I think it would be great to hang on to both him and Weber, both very promising young defencemen that are proven in the league, and trade one (or possibly both) down the line for some more assets up front.

Really not expecting to see much interesting happen in terms of trades or UFA signings on the defence, just hoping to sign most of a great crop of young players.

Forwards
Now for the hard part. Obviously, there's some good talent up front if we can overlook the albatross that is Scott Gomez ($7.36M, 2 yrs). Again, no GM will ever take that contract off of our hands, and we can only hope that the new CBA opens up some kind of door to get rid of him. After that, we have Plekanec ($5M, 4 yrs), Gionta ($5M, 2 yrs), Cole ($4.5M, 3 yrs), Bourque ($3.33M, 4 yrs), Pacioretty ($1.625M, 1 yr then RFA), Leblanc ($1.17M, 2 yrs then RFA), and Desharnais ($850k, 1 yr). I'm pretty happy with that group, and with much of our RFA crop, which includes Eller, Geoffrion, Blunden, and Nokelainen. Our UFAs consist of Moen, Darche, and Staubitz.

Frankly, I could care less about our UFAs. They're entirely replaceable. I'm glad we've signed White, I have a soft spot for the guy. I think Geoffrion showed some promise, but may have some trouble staying on the roster. I'd like to see Eller kept around, he's got potential and may also prove to be attractive trade bait.

The Dream
Outside of our very wildest dreams, we're not going to be able to trade Gomez and Kaberle for Rick Nash. Within our grasp as UFAs are veterans like Doan, Smyth, and Ray Whitney. I'm happy with Cole and Gionta as vets, and think we need to focus on younger players that might take a couple years to peak: we simply can't assemble a cup-worthy squad for at least 2 years.

Semin is on the market, but I'm not super-excited by him. He's kinda fragile, and hasn't re-found his form of the 08-09 and 09-10 seasons. Parise is another high flier, more interesting in my opinion if we can get value for him. He's in an odd spot, as he took a 1-year contract for $6M last season as an RFA on the back of consecutive 94- and 82-point seasons, but “only” scored 69 points this season and is entering his first year of eligibility as a UFA.

Honestly, I would like to see NO big, bold, interesting moves come Sunday. The crop of UFAs seems pretty thin, but might yield a good bargain or two. PA Parenteau would be interesting: he's francophone, shoots right-handed, and scored 53 and 67 points in the last 2 seasons (also his first 2 in the NHL). Plus, he only made $1.25M last season. I mentioned Dustin Penner earlier, he could bring some much-needed size and can definitely put the puck in the net. However, he's been having trouble with that lately, and as a result may not be able to match the $4.25M of his last contract.

Who's your reality-tempered dream acquisition? Let us know in the comments.

Acknowledgements and big thanks to CapGeek.com for numbers!

The F Stands For Fairweather Fans

Any of you who run a website will know that there's much pleasure amd grief to be had by following your own statistics on Google Analytics. The site tracks readers as numbers, by minutes on the site, pages read and location. It's a fun insight and a source of encouragement when numbers trend upwards. By the same token, it shows dips in readers and leads one to question what has changed. Like a 6-0 victory against the Rangers, one can't take Google Analytics to heart.

Earlier this year I was having a bit of fun with my Google Analytics data and trying to do some retrospective analysis of reader numbers as they relate to Canadiens winning and losing. Winning means more readers and losing means less.

Being that this is the Olympic break and we're in the midst of a Canadiens losing streak in a middling season, I feel pretty comfortable in saying that anyone reading this particular piece is in the hardcore. If there's one thing hardcore fans lie to do, it's complain about the softcore – those who wear a Bruins shirt under their Habs sweater – you know, just in case.

For you then, hardcore fans, I wanted share my examination of the Canadiens bandwagon, how big it is, how it reacts to wins, losses and stretches with little change


Bandwagon size

I start my assessment of the bandwagon with an assumption. The assumption is that anyone reading a relatively obscure hockey blog during a losing streak is a big fan – not a fan hopping on and off depending on the latest result. As such, I use reader numbers during a losing stretch as the non-bandwagon baseline.

From that point, I can control for number of days after wins, days of the week, exciting events (like trades) and such and come to estimates as to how many extra people follow the team closely when it's fashionable to do so. These are the numbers I see on this site:

Day after game: Loss (1.0); Win (1.30)
Two days after game: Loss (1.0); Win (1.45)
Three days after game: Loss (1.0); Win (0.97)

Here you can see that people flock to read about the team after a win (30% more readers), with peak bandwagon happening on Day 2 (45% more readers). The dip at Day 3 may be real, but it is hard to assess as there have been so few 3 day breaks in between games this year – usually Day 3 after a win is Day 1 after a W or a L.

To look a bit deeper, I compared what happens in a streak. So the day after the first win in a winning streak is W1. If on Day 3, the team wins again that would be W3, and W4 the next day and so on. One might speculate that the bandwagon would grow over time as excitement about the team winning increases. Maybe that happens at more mainstream sites, but here's how it goes down at LIW:

Day 1 of streak: L1 (1.0); W1 (1.19)
Day 2 of streak: L1 (1.0); W1 (1.30)
Day 3 of streak: L1 (1.0); W1 (1.29)
Day 4 of streak: L1 (1.0); W1 (1.16)
Day 5 of streak: L1 (1.0); W1 (1.33)

Again, the winning leads to a bump, but rather than accumulating over time, as one might expect, there seems to be a leveling off followed by what I might call streak fatigue from Day 4, with a more marked drop at Day 6 of a streak

It seems that not only are the fairweather fans in our midst quick to become scarce at the earliest sign that they might be supporting a losing team, but they also suffer from attention deficit, such that winning for too long isn't very interesting.


So what?

Good question. Well, as I said, it doesn't really matter. I was only sharing this because I did it for a bit of fun and thought one or two of you might get a laugh out of it.

But might it matter to the team as well?

I'd say that some of the people in the marketing and sales departments might be quite interested in this information. Filling the building is one of the concerns, of course. If there are 60,000 fans trying to get tickets to each game, then something like this wouldn't matter. But let's say there are only 25,000 fans wanting to see the Phoenix Coyotes in November, even in a winning run. Well, if the bandwagon drops out by 25% (1.0/1.3), then the team is suddenly looking at having to get creative to fill 3,000 or so seats.

I might also think that too big a bandwagon gets a bit unwieldy. I've always thought the pressure of the playoffs, for example, where everyone to the man or woman in the city is talking about the team and attaching themselves in some way to the team might be a lot to handle.


What of the total bandwagon?

This little snapshot only shows how our blog fluctuates in winning and losing. If you think about the profile of people who read a blog written by fans then I think you'd agree it's not your typical bandwagon. It's not the guy at the office who suddenly starts wearing Habs gear everyday in April as the Habs turn up on the verge of eliminating the Bruins. If anything, I'd say the real bandwagon is much much bigger in percentage terms. And, I'd guess that it fluctuates even more dramatically.

I also think that bandwagon fans can be the most demanding of all, and the most unreasonable. Coming in as they do with their craving for instant gratification, they sometimes don't understand what has come before, why things are being done a certain way. The fans that buy a ticket for a single game at the end of a winning streak to see a win are the ones who boo Halak loudest for letting in 5 goals after 3 months of excellence, the ones who scream shoot 10 seconds into every PP, the ones who rant about firing the coach every losing streak, and firing the GM every January.

In short, I don't relate to them that well. Still, as a subject of study and observation, the bandwagoneer is a fascinating animal.

The Ten Types of Fans Leafs And Habs Supporters

A couple of weeks ago, the peerless Down Goes Brown put together a brilliant psychoanalysis of the Leafs nation. Of course, you must read it for yourselves as his humour goes well beyond the group titles. In his analysis of the group he managed to reduce all Leafs fans into ten categories:

1. Mr. Mood Swing
2. The Self Loather
3. “Truculence” Guy
4. “Just One Cup” Guy
5. “Just One Cup” Guy who’s getting older
6. The Youngster
7. Bandwagon Jumper
8. The Fixer
9. The Delusional Idiot
10. The Realist


Reading the piece made me reflect on our own group in Habs fandom. At first glance, one could almost apply the identical groups to the Canadiens support. A closer look, and actually one can see they have to be different.

Take “Mr. Mood Swing”. Yes it’s a descriptor of Canadiens fans. But since I don’t know a Habs fan who doesn’t suffer from uncontrollable mood swings, I take this characteristic to be fundamental to the make-up of a Canadiens fan. Ditto, the Fixer, as we all (even those who sign "In Bob We Trust") ultimately know more than any given GM.

Go beyond those and you can see that others don’t apply at all – the “Just One Cup” group, for example would be mocked right out of the province by all those who continuously believe the next decade will bear much fruit.

So, as a service to all Habs fans, I’ve done my own dissection and applied it to the fans of Canada’s favourite team.


1. The Bandwagon Jumper
Foremost in the Canadiens community due to their sheer number. You know these people, they’re on your trains, and buses, they’re in your workplaces. Every time the Canadiens grab a first period lead, they help the number of fans swell by great swathes. A win is enough to double numbers in my experience and a streak pushes every Quebecer without a lingering obsession for the Avalanche to chant “Ole Ole Ole”. Studies have also shown this bandwagon can reach beyond provincial boundaries, and the evidence shows that a mere 0.500 record over 26 games is enough to loose the bandwagon across the whole country.


1. b) The Paddywagon Jumper
A sub-group of the Bandwagon Jumpers. These most famous of Canadiens fans bypass the bandwagon and wait by police vehicles (preferably paddywagons) until the ultimate last minute. They have no need for the highs and lows of actual game results, as it only delays their higher purpose. They keep themselves occupied in the regular season by practicing vandalism and arson during HNIC broadcasts.

2. The Dynasty fan
This is a special breed of fan that not only looks down on Leafs fans, Canucks fans and other fans, but also on Patrick Roy, Mats Naslund and anything else that came after the great schism in time that was the hiring of Irving Grundman. You won’t find many on the internet, though as they spend most of their days reading newspapers from the 1950s and/or current day Red Fisher columns.

3. The “Just A Few More Dynasties” fan
Unlike the Leafs, we don’t quite yet have anyone looking at the reality of the NHL, doing the math and coming up with the idea that for a team with all the complications (and poor management decisions) of the Canadiens that 1 Cup in a lifetime would be a decent return. Instead, fans look for a return to dynastic status and will be mostly satisfied if they get in another 2 or 3 decades worth of Stanley Cup finals from now till their end of days.

4. The 24 Cup Hugger
Every sign off, username and licence plate this guy owns has something to do with the number 24. Opposition fans cannot argue with “24” because once they make a point that requires a defence, he’ll hold his hand up and reel off “24 Cups” as the answer to the next 67 pleas. They would have done anything to remember any of the 24 Cups they vaunt daily, but have to do their best with the Canadiens greatest game box-set they have been watching nightly since its release.

5. The “Pur Laine” fan
Mostly restricted to a militant arm of RDS, this small group of fans doesn’t even like hockey. The Centre Molson is a place where they can gather with those in their clan, boo anthems and chant for their greats like Richard, Lafleur and Ribeiro.

6. The #1 Fan
Isn’t in elementary school anymore, yet inexplicably has Canadiens bed sheets, wallpaper and mouse pad. Spends so much time telling everyone he’s the #1 fan that he missed Alex Henry’s NHL career.

7. The “Real” Fan
These fans found that in the late 1990s one could turn up to a game 5 minutes before and buy a ticket from a scalper for less than face value. They want the return of these “good” old days where an emptying of the bandwagon means they can scavenge all the Molson Zone beer tickets.

8. The Goalie Worshipper
The Canadiens have indeed been blessed with a run of good goalies over the century. This is not a fact that has gone unnoticed by these fans. They even managed to beatify a goaltender. Everything that goes well turns on the axis of goaltending. Nothing that goes wrong can stick to the goalie. To these fans, defencemen are sub-human, only made necessary by the need to test the goalie with screen shots.


9. The Gentleman (The Lady)
The holdover from a bygone era. The gentleman (lady) still goes to all Canadiens games throughout the year dressed in their Sunday best. They know when to cheer for a goal and a save and know when to remove their hats. Watching a Canadiens game with one of these fans is a pleasure, because they have somehow maintained the love of the team without developing the snobbery of some of their contemporaries or the delusions of their successors.

10. The Almost Reasonable Fanatic
Loosely based on the “Realists” of Toronto. Thanks to 1971, 1986 and 1993, people in Montreal, however, can’t seem to take that final step to realism – they always hold onto a little of the fanaticism. Sure these fans will be telling the others to calm down after a 2-0 playoff series lead, but a big lead in the third game is usually enough for the feeling of destiny to wash over them.


Where do you fall? Maybe there's a category I've missed. There's only so much one can develop by dissecting his own psyche...

Right On CuePundit Panic Button Pressed

They lost. They panicked:

Is it time to panic yet? (Arpon Basu):

Um, yeah, I would say so.

About last night... (Mike Boone)

I hate to sound like an alarmist, but YOUR MONTREAL CANADIENS ARE IN TROUBLE!

They are six points out of eighth place in the Eastern Conference – and eight points out of 10th.

Predictable as a Brisebois' zone clearance strategies.

Had they read yesterday's post: Streak Three; then the illuminated ones would know that steaks happen. Streaks are good and streaks have to be endured.

All this blowing up the roster BS is nonsense. Pittsburgh didn't blow up the roster, and mark my words, they will be in the playoffs – despite that nasty losing spell of theirs over the holidays. The Habs have solutions at their fingertips, and are just waiting for their timing to get them streaking the other way again.


Bandwagon

I have been tracking the website traffic for more than 2 years now and I have been compiling a fairly good study on the bandwagon. It's better data this year with more readers.

I can tell you fairly definitively that about half as many people are reading this site now compared to the heady days of our past winning streak. Of course, the hysteria of the playoffs (first round) is still the pinnacle of game review viewing).

If you are reading this post, on a day after the fourth loss in a row, you can rest assure you are a getting dangerously close to the core of Habs fandom.

Sorry I don't have it today, my correlational study on bandwagon traffic is in the statistical gears for the moment...


Benoit Brunet

It's not all optimist from me. I'm annoyed too. If Benoit Brunet claims one more time that what the Habs must do to erase a 2-goal deficit and vast margin in play:

"N'est pas complique"

I think i will explode. It is complicated Ben. The other teams have plans to beat us and we are getting foiled by them. Someone will work them out, but it won't be a matter of dumping the puck in.

That my friend is just about the single easiest play to defend.


It's complicated, but it ain't dire.

In the illustrious words of The Hitchiker's Guide: DON'T PANIC

Bandwagons and Paddy Wagons

I think just about everything that can be said has been said about the post-game riots that took place the other night – I only wanted to add a couple of thoughts.

People have been complaining that there shouldn't be a riot after one round, we should wait for something to riot about – as if rioting and looting at any time is acceptable. I will be just as disappointed if the rioting happens in mid-August. The issue is a lack of respect for our neighbours, a lack of reverence for peace and order. Obviously, it looks bad for the city, but at the end of the day, the people rioting probably had little if anything to do with hockey (any excuse to riot, so to speak). This doesn't mean Habs fans are off the hook for this, but it should not take away from excitement and support for the team. It only falls on Habs fans who do respect their fellow citizens to stand up to the delinquents in the minority.

Up until the paddy wagons and riot police were loosed on Maisonneuve, my biggest concern with the fans was a that they would tire themselves out. Let me rephrase that – that the bandwagon would tire itself out. After all, the playoffs are a long haul and the manic depressive ride they have been subjecting themselves to over single wins and losses has been tiring even to an observer.

My good friend, who works across the road from the Bell Centre, told me that people were loitering around outside (call it tailgating if you want) a good 8 hours prior to the puck drop in Game 5. Now, I know we missed a year guys, but perhaps that's a little over the top for Game 5.


As someone who follows the Habs with equal fervour in both thick and thin, I sometimes find it hard to deal with the thought that 3 million people care about the Canadiens beating the Bruins. I suppose it feels threatening to have so many people encroach on what can sometimes be a very private endeavour. But after thinking about it, the bandwagon does also have many merits:

1. Keep opposition goalies and defencemen from hearing each other:"Aaron Ward was in front of me and the crowd's so loud, he couldn't here me yell 'Screen!' so I didn�t see the puck until he stuck his foot out."
2. Keep our superior Quebec broadcast afloat
3. George Gillett could use some more fans that like him
4. Propping up team finances by all seemingly having to own a spanking new red Kovalev sweater
5. Spawning new fans for the future (as someone who was born from the late 80s Habs success, I should know)
   

So, join me in wishing the Habs good fortune (and less complacency) in the next round. Come on you Habs, keep these future hard-cores on the bandwagon long enough to set their imaginations alight. And fans on the street, let's keep those others from tarnishing our reputation and out of the paddy wagons from here on.

Drawstrings Week: Montreal Canadiens November 26 - December 2

[Montreal Canadiens Week takes a look at the week that was and the week ahead from a subjective standpoint, and is supplemented by the objective analysis following every fifth game]

The week that was

I thought last week was back to earth for the Habs. Well this week was back into the mixer that is developing in the NHL's Eastern Conference.

With 3 points this week we drew closer to the conference lead and allowed the laggards to catch up. This is what the New NHL was designed to be afterall - equal. Well, the drawstrings are being pulled in and no team is safe, not the Senators, not the Hurricanes, and certainly not the Canadiens.


For us in Montreal, it is easy to mire in our own failures and keep looking to teams that are winning. But surely we have to recognise that every week that goes by we are watching different teams on winning streaks. One week it is us and the Senators, the next week the Thrashers and the Islanders, the next week the Flyers and the Sabres.

All the Habs need to do is get into and stay in position so that in March they are in striking distance. It's just like that Sega horse racing game at the casino. I'll pick them in the quinella. Come on Habshot Dancers...

So, amid all the gloom and doom, is there anything to be positive about?

Of course there is:

- Latendresse is scoring. This provides the team with a third scoring winger. We're still waiting on you Mike.

- Kovalev is still scoring. A real positive light this year on the team.

- The Canadiens are still in 5th place. Albeit thanks to parity, and through no fault of their own.

- The stupid part of the schedule is over. We can go back to Tuesdays and Thursdays for a while with games against teams who haven't been renting apartments in town.

- Jaroslav Halak is up. Getting a chance to prove that he really does deserve some NHL time.

- Chipchura can play. Habs rookie of the year this year?

- The bandwagon is emptying. We can make our way back to the bar on game nights.

Not bad, quite a bit there. Plus, we're on a 1-game point streak. This will be the 5 game without a loss in regulation if we win the next four, you just wait.

I have to say I am confident the team will turn things around. This is because every team in the East has had a slump so far and every team (except Ottawa) has turned it around. If we are an average Eastern conference team like the critics say we are, we should look forward to some wins in the future.



Quote of the week
On striving for more:

"That's one reason why I'm not happy," Kovalev said. "I mean, I'm happy I've scored 12 goals, but I'm not happy because most of them came on the power play."

Coming off a week where New Jersey showed us that making the playoffs is less important than avoiding them in the playoffs...

... what might Rejean Houle do?

Shrug his shoulders and evade the media.




... what might Sam Pollock do?

Offer Brisebois a 10-year contract ... coaching in the ECHL (effective immediately).


The week upcoming

Looking back at last week, I thought 3 points would be good. And, 3 points is what we managed, so kudos to the team. I am not in a position to care how they got the points - I haven't cared about a hockey game in May for years. That's all I want, OT losses and all. This week I'll take points again. 3 would be acceptable. 4 would be nice and 5 or 6 would be very nice indeed. I don't see less than 3, not if they have any pride (and they have lots...).

Tuesday night: Detroit Red Wings at the Bell Centre.

People think divisional games are all important. I think if you take your games off the West, you give yourself bonus points that improve your standing and make divisional games less pressure-packed. These are the 10 games that make an eighth seed a fifth seed.

In Detroit, you have a team that knows how to win and win regularly. But they have no interest in being undefeated. They have little interest in President's trophies. They focus on the Cup. That's why they can be beaten in December. We have a team that can beat them. We have good but not great scorers, they have a good but not great goalie. What we also have is a desire to help Nashville win the Central as we saw the other night.

Wings to watch: Niklas Lidstrom and Henrik Zetterberg – two great players that play attractive and effective hockey. Plus they are Swedes and Swedes love to play the Habs, ask Alfredsson and Sundin.


Thursday night: Boston Bruins at the TD Banknorth Garden.

It's too bad Bergeron got hurt, but my goodness what a perspective the young man had. No suing, no blame, just planning on acting to clean up the league's act. I like the attitude, I like the player. I'm also glad he'll be missing this game. As the Bruins best in my eyes, he'll be missed against a newly focused defensive Habs team.

The Bruins have been hottish of late and catching us - but then again who hasn't? With a bit of focus, we can find our success against this squad again and put them back in their place.

Bruins to watch: Chuck Kobasew and Marc Savard – Kobasew continues to amaze me by turning up on the scoresheet night after night (it used to be months in between appearances), while Marc Savard is the chronically underrated scorer of this league (I even underrated him myself one paragraph ago).


Saturday night: Carolina Hurricanes at the Bell Centre.

Saturdays put all eyes on the Habs come 7. It's tough to be at home every week during a losing streak when everyone is watching. Well, this Saturday is serving up another tough one. Two teams that came out of the gates strong in October. Two teams that stumbled a bit in November. And, two teams that will be looking to straighten things out this week. I think Saturday will once again determine whether this week is good bad or average. i don't foresee 4 points from Tueday and Thursday. A win here and 5 points on the week would see the Hab's fortunes on the rise. I think a Canes blogger is writing the same thing (my ears are burning up).

In all seriousness, it is time for the Canadiens to be a team that victimises vulnerable teams in delicate situations rather than be the first stone on their path back to playoffland. If character game is a real thing, then this game is it.

Canes to watch: Matt Cullen and Cory Stillman – two forwards to make it 6 to watch this week. Cullen loves Carolina apparently and Cory Stillman is a player who makes me think my statement about Marc Savard being chronically underrated is an exaggeration, when will Stillman get any respect? Tampa has really missed him.



Overheard on the Habswagon

Ceiling fan: wrwrwrw

(The last guy took that foil cup that fell over, he's making a safety blanket)

The New (My) NHL: Montreal Canadiens November 19-25

[Montreal Canadiens Week takes a look at the week that was and the week ahead from a subjective standpoint, and is supplemented by the objective analysis following every fifth game]

The week that was

Well guys, back to earth, eh?

Not quite yet, but close.

What I think we just saw was a week that will become more and more common as the salary cap era goes on. We saw the 14th place team go on a winning tear and the first place team lose 3 in a row. Our own 3rd (or 4th if you believe in giving free positions to divisions) place team suffered a bit too.

From last week, where there was starting to be some separation in the standings, we have now arrived at a situation where there is 8 points between 2nd and 14th. In Toronto they are flipping out because they are in 14th. From another point of view, they are a team that was going to be fighting for the playoffs, one point out of a spot (24 games in...).


This new parity amongst the teams in the conference also has implications for game preparation, road trip preparation and fatigue levels over the season. If every game is now a battle, is it possible to be in a position to win each one?

Well, I think we saw the answer and it is NO.


But the answer is also that sometimes the other team simply outplays you. They are afterall, trying to. The hardest thing to admit as a sports fan is that your team is inferior to another, or even was inferior that day or night. In Montreal, the media tends to ignore how the other team played and focus entirely on the Canadiens. Win, and the Canadiens played well. lose and they played poorly. On rare occasions, the media sometimes concedes the other team's goalie played well, but never that the other team did.

If the Habs actually looked at their worst in terms a of putting themselves in positions to win, they also benefited from an Islanders team that couldn't get over a hangover of their own. In fact, it helps me to think of games from the opponents' perspective for every game.

For example, we beat the Bruins 7-1. Both sets of fans will look at the game from their own point of view

Habs fan: The Canadiens played an amazing and complete game.

Bruins fan: The Bruins were lazy, lost battles and conceded too many penalties.

In reality, the answer probably lies somewhere in between. For usually, the team that plays better wins and the team that looks lazy loses. But, in the way that different Bruins can make Mike Komisarek look both like a giant or a shortie, opponents energy, desperation, skill and luck shape the way we see our own team.

As such, here's my view on the past week: Montreal played 4 quite similar games. Ottawa are a better team than us, and we need a special effort to beat them. The Islanders dogged their game and made us look good. And, the Sabres played some inspired hockey – probably emerging from some very stern speeches reminding them they went from top to bottom in 6 months time.

I also believe that there are 7 cities each week that go through this same down period, just like there are 7 who go through the up. Montreal may be unique in the number of passionate fans, but is hardly alone in their one-eyed view on home teams.

So, after 2 losses (or 3 in 4, whichever you think looks worse) is there need to panic? NO

The introspective approach to game evaluations is fine in the media, since it has no impact whatsoever on how the team will perform, practice or approach the next game. One can only hope the coaching staff and players can step back and admit their inferiority on a given night. With a realistic evalution, realistic solutions can emerge. Maybe the Koivu/Higgins/Ryder line plays badly against Buffalo, but could still function against Toronto. Maybe Huet doesn't like facing Crosby, but relishes Jagr shots.

Thankfully, I think we have the staff to produce rational and realistic solutions, and to ignore the panic that sets in every 2 games.


On ignoring 20 earlier games in an effort to get your quote in the paper (Guy Lafleur):

"En mon livre, on n'a pas de premiere trio a Montreal. On a quatre quatriemes trios"

"In my opinion we don't have a number one line in Montreal. We have four fourth lines."

Coming off a week that sent the media into a tailspin and bandwagon fans home packing...

... what might Rejean Houle do?

Trade Ryan McDonagh for a winger from out west.




... what might Sam Pollock do?

Talk to Paul Maurice's agent about possible interest in a return to AHL coaching down the road in Hamilton (in the eventuality...).



The week upcoming

If the last week saw the Canadiens get reabsorbed by the front of the peloton, then these next 6 must return at least 3 points for hope of breaking free again next month. A realistic evaluation, assuming no sulks infect the team as a whole, makes the task doable.

Tuesday night: Toronto Maple Leafs at the Air Canada Centre.

This game is critical. A win allows the team some breathing space both in the standings and from the media. Toronto is not going to be a pushover by any means, they will be fighting for their coach by all accounts. If the Canadiens can find a way to play and impose their own style on these Leafs, then I think it comes up W. After two lessons in how to impose a style, hopefully they learned a thing or two.

Leafs to watch: Mats Sundin and John Ferguson Junior – Sundin is having a great season (which recently doesn't seem to be able to go hand in hand with wins for the Leafs), JFJ will get some air time on the TV and should provide some decent expressions (from relief to despair depending on how things go).


Friday night: New Jersey Devils at the brand new .

Great. The Devils. Just when they decided not to be the worst team in the Atlantic. There are points to be had here, though. As we saw with the Islanders and Flyers, the Atlantic division is not the Northeast. Not by any stretch of the imagination. Our little vacation from the top right corner of the league gives us a good chance to remind the Devils of that.

One commenter on the site got a bit animated when I prognosticated on the Devils games earlier in the year. I rather conservatively said split. He did not agree. I think this game will give us the answer.

Devils to watch: Patrick Elias and John Madden – Elias is underperforming as much as anyone and has been known to enjoy playing the Habs, Madden will be on the ice to test Kovalev et al's commitment to defense.

Saturday night: Nashville Predators at the Bell Centre.

In my opinion, this is the difficult game this week. Nashville have been underrated this year. I did it, everyone did. While they lost Timonen and Kariya, they managed to keep together a very young and effective group of defensemen, and their forwards are taking "no name" effectiveness to new heights. Their November has been great and they'll be coming off a game against an Ottawa team with renewed vigour.

Predators to watch: Radek Bonk and Martin Erat – Bonk has 9 goals already! (10 less than in 2 seasons with the Canadiens) and Erat is the player we thought Bulis could be and would be the leading scorer on the current Canadiens.



Overheard on the Habswagon

Fan 1: What's that stuff you see rolling by in cowboy films?

Fan 1: Oh, that's called tumbleweed.

Fan 1: Right.

(If a foil cup falls over after two consecutive Habs losses, does it make a sound?)