Friday, May 03, 2013

Ottawa-Montreal Game #1:

Possession Statistics

You've all seen the standard boxscore for the game. So you now know who scored (in case you forgot) and who got the penalties. But what beyond that?

Well you know how all the geeky fans are referencing things like possession stats, scoring chances and all that? We decided it was high time that a boxscore illuminated us on this information on a game by game basis. Below you'll find the first prototype. The stats included (all for 5-on-5 play) include:

Danger +/-: Dangerous shots (aka scoring chances or shots from within the homeplate) against subtracted from dangerous shots for when a given player is on the ice. See this as the balance of dangerous play when said player was on the ice, which is exactly what Danger +/- sounds like it should be.

Corsi: This is shots + missed shots + shots blocked against subtracted from the same stats for when a given player is on the ice. It is the standard for possession statistics.

LIW O: A weighted approach to attempts for when a given player is on the ice. Different weights are given to goals, dangerous shots, other shots (not dangerous), missed shots and blocked shots. The sum is indexed to league averages at even strength with 0.00 as the average. A score above 0.00 is an above average offensive contribution. A score below is below average.

LIW D: The same as LIW D, but for attempts against when a given player is on the ice.

LIW Score: LIW O + LIW D. This combined scored gives us an idea whether the player in question performed above or below the average NHL level.

Dome: A Y indicates the player was a dome selection

Canadiens Possession Boxscore

  • More than 3/4 of the game was played at ES, and this is how it looked. For the enormous shot advantage we are speaking about this morning, one can see the effect that siphoning off the 17 PP shots has on things. 
  •  Most players did their part to create some offence, but the worrying red marks against Plekanec and Bourque and the neutral effort from Pacioretty speak to their innocuous efforts 5-on-5. 
  • Defensively, the big reds against Diaz and Gorges need to be examined. Are they up to the mandate they've been given? Doesn't look like it. I'd take all my eggs out of that one basket and use these two complementary defenders to make two useful pairings instead.
  • Markov and Subban stood out. Of course, they did. see eggs, basket.
  • Tinordi was sidelined because he was suffereing (see -5 in dangerous chances). Bouillon needed to find time despite this.
  • Eller was having a storming game before he was taken out harshly.
  • Galchenyuk shone too.

Senators Possession Boxscore

  • Despite the shot difference, a lot of Sens have above average weighted scores.
  • The Senators top line was dangerous all night and it shows here.
  • Karlsson had a good offensive turnout, but can be taken in the defensive end with the right approach.
  • Cowen a strong above average defensive performance is not an acceptable result for the Habs.
  • Let's hope whomever they replace Gryba with (if they do) is as poor as he is.

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