Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Holiday Reading

The editor must be on holiday. How else does one explain the error-ridden and misinformed piece of tripe that the paper published today about the Habs?

I am going to link it, because it's that ridiculous.

According to Vincent Lubrano, correspondent and fan from the Garden State, Francis Bouillon is not French enough, Francis is not a name used by Quebec French name, Louis Leblanc does not exist and the Canadiens would be better off with 20 average players from the home province.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

The Parties In Negotiation

The NHL collective bargaining process is starting to get interesting.

The storyline we are going to live with for the next month (months if we take a cynical view) is Team Owner vs. Team Player.

You know, if it were really that simple, I think this thing would get settled. The complexity of the thing is really much greater.

Monday, August 13, 2012

More Fodder For Subban

You don't want term, you don't want high contracts? Let me present exhibit Pacioretty.

PK Subban wins on the back of the Pacioretty deal. PK is the better and more valuable player, and though he's had less NHL seasons, he's had as many good ones.

Thursday, August 09, 2012

A Lot To Fehr

Despite Donald Fehr's arrogant posturing, it appears the NHL will not be willing to play a season without a CBA after all.

September 15th is now a drop dead date for the players to read those 76,000 pages of audit.

Thursday, August 02, 2012

One Thing Leads To Another

One thing always leads to another. This may be a revelation for the Habs green GM who reportedly just offered a contract of 2 years for $5.5 million to PK Subban.

Subban rejected that. You don't say.

Tuesday, July 03, 2012

The Price Of Commitment

You want a player to commit to a long-term deal? Show him the money.

That's exactly what greenhorned GM Marc Bergevin did most recently with the Carey price contract. 6 years at $6.5 million a season makes Carey the most expensive contract ever tendered by the Montreal Canadiens and the third highest paid goaltender in the NHL.

If you want a stable piece in the corner of your team that you don't need to worry about for a number of consecutive summers, that is what you have to do: just ask the Rangers.


What else can we say about this contract?

Carey Price has not yet earned the right to be paid more than Jonathan Quick or Ryan Miller, but contracts are not made that way are they? Players are paid their most lucrative salaries based on the faith and speculation of the GM that faces them in negotiations at exactly Carey's age.

Such is the fear of free agency on a team that has neglected to draft a goaltender in years and has been trading back-ups away as if they were discontinued bank notes.

What's more, there's an element of Montreal-premium in a long-term salary like this. Carey's take home pay is more reflective of his standing in the league than his over-the-counter price. A funny thing in a province where 6 million taxpayers would gladly pay for a free agent instead of a university professor.

The niggling issue, of course is that the long-time coming of Carey Price is still happening. For the impatient Montrealers, the 5 years of ups and downs since those 2008 starts have been a long run. 5 more Cupless years, some more painful than others. Now, Bergevin is paying Price top dollar on the back of a solid, but not top-notch season in the continued hope that the pinnacles of form represent the future, rather than the average form. I suspect there are a couple of learning years to remain, and wonder if the burden of the Gomez number which will now hang on every 4-goal game will take its toll.

There's a positive also in the contract at $6.5 million. Currently that stands at about 9% of the team salary load. Although, I'd be happier if Carey was paid at closer to what I believe to be the market value for a goaltender in the second tier of the top 20 keepers of the league; I'm accepting of paying that allocation for what amounts to 400 full games of service.


Anyway, on balance, we have to be content. We did not lose the only goalie our team has to an offer, and though we likely spent $2 million more in the doing, it's $2 million less to give to Clarke MacArthur or whichever other Leafs retread is next on the list. Plus, it's $2 million of $70 million, not $48 million. On a team of third liners, Carey like his coach will have to ride a few frustrating seasons anyway, so his proving ground will be a few years off. By that time, who knows how many goalies will be paid at higher rate than him.

The price of commitment is steep. But without commitment, the cycle of mediocrity cannot stop. Let's hope that this commitment, like the other 4 year pay bundles handed out look like good sense in time and become recognized as the steps that put the Habs back on a track they once had proprietary rights over.

Happy free agent hunting.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Quiet Frenzy

Well, it was a rough end to the season. Now that the UFA frenzy is almost upon us, it's a lot easier to be optimistic and have us all jump back on the Habwagon. Given that I managed to call Erik Cole last year, I figured I should give another stab at my dream UFA acquisition for this year. Anybody up for speculating on the roster come fall?

Goalies
Start with the easy part. The Habs have entered salary arbitration with Price, which makes it sound like there might be some bad feelings between him and management. However, this is a canny strategic move that prevents other GMs pulling “gutless” moves (Brian Burke's word) and submitting offer sheets to drive up Price's salary. We have Budaj for another year at $1.15M. Given we need someone to play the 15 or so games Price doesn't start, Budaj is a good fit at a good price.

It's a bit of no-brainer that Price will be signed this year, although I'm having difficulty figuring out for how much. Somewhere near $5M would be my guess. What do you guys think?

Defencemen
There's a good crop of returning defencemen, with a pile of RFAs on the roster as well. The only D-man who goes into unrestricted free agency is Campoli, and I really don't expect to see him back. We have Markov ($5.75M, 2 yrs), Gorges ($3.9M, 6 yr), Weber (850k, 1 yr and then RFA), and sadly, Kaberle (an unbelievable $4.25M for another 2 years). Obviously, we'd love to get rid of him, but there isn't a GM in the league who would take him off our hands. Hopefully the new CBA will allow us to get him off from around the neck of the team, but I don't think we can hold our breaths. On the RFA scene, we have Emelin, Nash, Diaz, Subban, and St.-Denis. 

I could see possibly keeping St.-Denis and Nash for depth, but they aren't big pieces of the puzzle. In my opinion, Subban is second only in terms of Price in terms of priority for team signing. I'm also a huge fan of Emelin, and would love to have him on the CH blueline for years to come from what I've seen from him this season. Also a fan of Diaz, he's got a good sense of what's going on around him and a good shot from the point. I think it would be great to hang on to both him and Weber, both very promising young defencemen that are proven in the league, and trade one (or possibly both) down the line for some more assets up front.

Really not expecting to see much interesting happen in terms of trades or UFA signings on the defence, just hoping to sign most of a great crop of young players.

Forwards
Now for the hard part. Obviously, there's some good talent up front if we can overlook the albatross that is Scott Gomez ($7.36M, 2 yrs). Again, no GM will ever take that contract off of our hands, and we can only hope that the new CBA opens up some kind of door to get rid of him. After that, we have Plekanec ($5M, 4 yrs), Gionta ($5M, 2 yrs), Cole ($4.5M, 3 yrs), Bourque ($3.33M, 4 yrs), Pacioretty ($1.625M, 1 yr then RFA), Leblanc ($1.17M, 2 yrs then RFA), and Desharnais ($850k, 1 yr). I'm pretty happy with that group, and with much of our RFA crop, which includes Eller, Geoffrion, Blunden, and Nokelainen. Our UFAs consist of Moen, Darche, and Staubitz.

Frankly, I could care less about our UFAs. They're entirely replaceable. I'm glad we've signed White, I have a soft spot for the guy. I think Geoffrion showed some promise, but may have some trouble staying on the roster. I'd like to see Eller kept around, he's got potential and may also prove to be attractive trade bait.

The Dream
Outside of our very wildest dreams, we're not going to be able to trade Gomez and Kaberle for Rick Nash. Within our grasp as UFAs are veterans like Doan, Smyth, and Ray Whitney. I'm happy with Cole and Gionta as vets, and think we need to focus on younger players that might take a couple years to peak: we simply can't assemble a cup-worthy squad for at least 2 years.

Semin is on the market, but I'm not super-excited by him. He's kinda fragile, and hasn't re-found his form of the 08-09 and 09-10 seasons. Parise is another high flier, more interesting in my opinion if we can get value for him. He's in an odd spot, as he took a 1-year contract for $6M last season as an RFA on the back of consecutive 94- and 82-point seasons, but “only” scored 69 points this season and is entering his first year of eligibility as a UFA.

Honestly, I would like to see NO big, bold, interesting moves come Sunday. The crop of UFAs seems pretty thin, but might yield a good bargain or two. PA Parenteau would be interesting: he's francophone, shoots right-handed, and scored 53 and 67 points in the last 2 seasons (also his first 2 in the NHL). Plus, he only made $1.25M last season. I mentioned Dustin Penner earlier, he could bring some much-needed size and can definitely put the puck in the net. However, he's been having trouble with that lately, and as a result may not be able to match the $4.25M of his last contract.

Who's your reality-tempered dream acquisition? Let us know in the comments.

Acknowledgements and big thanks to CapGeek.com for numbers!