Game #69Montreal Takes It To The Cream Of The West

Details

Date: 10/03/2012
Opponent: Canucks
Location: Vancouver

Win: 4-1

Habs Goalie: Price (W)
Opposition Goalie: Luongo (L)

Habs goalscorers: Geoffrion, Cole (2), Subban
Opposition goalscorers: Kesler

Play of the game

Tough call in this one, but I am going to have to go with Geoffrion's goal. Not only was it a tying goal, it was also a good goal put together by two players that mean a lot to this organization (Blake and Leblanc). The goal was a Geoffrion's first as a Hab since 1964; let's hope we don't have to wait another 48 years for the next. Think Blake will still be with us in 2060?

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Erik Cole - Game Puck
Erik played a fantastic game and seems very intent on making sure we don't draft any forwards that would immediately drop him down the depth-chart. That, and he must have some serious passion and pride. His two goals tonight were both hard-working goals and they put him at 25, oh so close to the 30 mark (the high in his career).

Max Pacioretty
Patches kept it rolling tonight with 2 more points. I believe that with 13 games left he will hit 35-30-65 which is something that even the most opptomistic weren't always saying. I find as the games and weeks have gone by he looks more and more like a complete NHL player. His play is giving me a lot more hope for next year than I had just a month ago.

Blake Geoffrion
Why not? He did what his Dad couldn't do and that is score a goal as a Hab. That is not a shot at his Dad, but just praise for Blake because of what he could mean to this team. Imagine how excited Edmonton fans would be if Gretzky's Great-Grandson were to play for them in the 2060's or Detroit's if the Lidstrom name came back 70 odd years into the future. I think that Blake was a good move by this team and I was happy to see him pot his first. Besides that, I felt that he played quite well as there were a couple of other chances too.

Defencemen

Andrei Markov
He looked out of place at times and unsure of himself, but I still felt that he played quite well (and, I need someone new to write about). What he hasn't lost is his offensive vision and his incredible skills of keeping the puck in at the point. Tonight was just the first game in a long road back to being our best defender and best overall player and I think he did well considering everything. My hope is that his utilization and confidence increase over the next 13 games so that we can all have a summer where he doesn't have to be the unknown that he has become during recent off-seasons.

PK Subban
I hate to say it as PK has been fantastic for a lot of the year and above what one would expect for all of it, but, don't you think that if he played and shot like he did tonight a little more often from October to February we may be talking about playoffs and not lottery? Again, however, his play has me more excited for next year than wondering what could have been in this one.

Goaltender

Carey Price
If Cole only scores one the game-puck is Carey's. That doesn't mean that he played any worse, just that Cole really stepped it up. Price was very, very solid tonight and totally outplayed the often shaky Luongo. I would assume that Carey will be playing for Canada in a few weeks at World's and think that it will be good for him to get back to playing behind a solid, winning team.

Comments

I was hoping for the loss tonight, but still found myself happy with the goals and with Markov's return. Ideally, I suppose we play an exciting game, but lose something like 4-5 in regulation. That way we get what we want and still get some entertainment. We still have 13 games to lose, however, so I am hoping that we'll get back on track against desperater teams. Tonight was indeed an exciting hockey game and, standings aside, I think we played well and showed that we can be a decent team. I am done thinking abut the Fall and what could have been, though. My sights are firmly set on the draft and on a return to the playoffs as soon as next year.

It was fabulous to see Markov back, but no one could have been more happy than he is. I am sure that he wants nothing more than 14 wins and a trip to the playoffs as I am sure he feels bad for his teammates and fans for being out so long (although, it was not at all his fault). It was nice to see an assist from him too, on the 5-on-3; a PP that he bumped Kaberle off of. People are talking about him taking it easy and skipping World's (if selected) because of the risk to his knee. I, however, believe that if it is healed then it is healed and, if so, he is no more of an injury risk than any other player. So, I hope that he plays a lot down the stretch and does go to World's as I feel a happy, healthy, game-ready Markov is the exact thing this team has been missing and is the main thing that we should be excited about come October.

Game #29One More Slips Through Habs's Hands

Details

Date: 08/12/2011
Opponent: Canucks
Location: Montreal

Loss: 3-4 (SO)

Habs Goalie: Price (L)
Opposition Goalie: Luongo (W)

Habs goalscorers: St. Denis, Diaz, Cole
Opposition goalscorers: Raymond, Hodgson (1, SO), Salo

Play of the game

The play of the game was going to be the Cole goal, that is until we got to OT. In my head it was then going to be the winner or a fantastic save. When neither of those happened I went back to the one play that made us look our best. Cole did very well at the blue-line to block a shot. The puck bounced favourably for him and he was off towards Luongo with Pacioretty on a 2-on-1. Cole made the right choice and Luongo guessed wrong. The goal gave us the dreaded 3-0 lead.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Forwards

Andrei Kostitsyn
Andrei tied for the lead in shots and in hits tonight and that didn't come as a shock. He made things happen in the offensive zone and, unfortunately for him, ends the night with a -1 rating and no points. When he uses his size, strength and shot, as he did tonight, he is easily one of our best all-around players.

Erik Cole - Game Puck
Speed, size and more speed was Erik's game tonight. His goal was the pay-off for playing that way throughout the first two periods, for making the Canuck defence question themselves. He almost cost us the game in OT with a horrible giveaway, but Price bailed him out with a fantastic save and saved him game-puck honours.

David Desharnais
Desharnais didn't pick up any points or have a great night in the face-off circle, but did a fine job in other categories. He centred our best line and contributed to quite a few of Cole and Pacioretty's chances. He also ended up being one of only three forwards (Cole, Camms) to improve their +/- tonight.

Defencemen

Raphael Diaz
Scored a goal and logged huge minutes again. I was also pretty impressed with his confidence at both ends. His play and that of Emelin's vs. that of Weber's has me liking the playing-pro-in-Europe route quite a bit. Where else can you get 25 year-olds who are ready to play top-4 minutes?

Alexei Emelin
I would have liked to have Gorges in here, but in the end I couldn't get over him being on the ice for two third period goals against. So, I went with Emelin, the obvious (how crazy is that?) choice. He logged close to 24 minutes, led the game in hits (tied with Kostitsyn) and is becoming the one Hab that you don't want to be skating in on with some speed.

Goaltender

Carey Price
I have Carey in, but it was close. I know that it isn't his fault that we always lose our leads, it is the team's. It would be great if we had a goalie who could hold-off the nightly third-period bombardment, but it shouldn't be expected. Price would have a lot more wins with a better team in front of him, but there are goalies, few as they are, who would have this team winning. He made some fabulous saves to even give us the chance at one point and then a couple in OT that gave us the chance for a shootout (or, realistically, a chance to win in OT). I would, however, have Budaj in for the shootout. I don't now how good or bad Peter is in the shootout, but I know that 9 goals on 17 shots (38th of 45 goalies) isn't good; I would give change a chance.

Comments

If you didn't see this game, but you saw the San Jose one, I think that you're good. The Habs couldn't hold their lead, sat back and gave it too little too late. The upsetting part is that when we are playing well (as we did in the first 40 minutes) we can keep up with any team, we can beat any team. We are too content, however, once we have the lead to see if we can hold on. Why anyone in their right mind would think that a defensive shell would be the best way to win or tie a period is beyond me. It seems pretty obvious that if we kept playing to score we could be winning games by more than 1 goal (generally the result when wins actually happen). This is the reason that so many of our games go to OT and so many of our other losses or other wins are by 1-goal margins. We allow the other team to catch-up, if they want, all the while being good enough ourselves to catch-up and keep a game close when we don't have the lead. Tonight's game is frustrating because it is one point lost. A point that we all know how we could have gotten, a point that the players know how to get, a point that the coaches should know how to get, but won't just do it. Until we change our gameplan it will always be a 50/50 toss-up. The playoff hope will remain alive, however, (not any old team can stay with Vancouver), but won't be a certainty (not any old team can keep it so close with Columbus).

Game # 15 Price Turns The Tables On Quebec Goalie With A Shutout Of His Own

Details

Date: 9/11/2010
Opponent: Canucks
Location: Montreal

Win: 2-0

Habs Goalie: Price (W)
Opposition Goalie: Luongo (L)

Habs goalscorers: Markov, Hamrlik
Opposition goalscorers: None

Play of the game

A Montrealer comes to town and its a shutout. Not exactly a new script. Yet the play of the game is not a play that sustained a shutout, but the play that broke the other one that loomed.

The play was a collection of good plays, as goals often are, culminating in the simplest of put ins. The breakout pass to Cammalleri, his wonderful vision to find Plekanec, Pleks great control and then patience to open the defence, Gionta to the net, and Markov to the net for a goal. Complex parts, simply beautiful. And no shutout.

Dome hockey team

The 6 players we're playing in a no changes, do or die contest in the dome

Tomas Plekanec
Probably the best skater on either team this night. He controlled play when he was on, he found his way into chances on occasions, he killed penalties thoughtfully, 4 takeaways, he impressed this guy who can barely lift a puck by clearing the rink, and he played the most important part in that goal.

Benoit Pouliot
This game took quite a resolve from the Canadiens players. The discipline to backcheck was key to keeping the Canucks shots peripheral until near the end of the game. The dedication to the forecheck meant Carey Price had long rests at times. For me, Pouliot and his line did a great job on the forecheck. I choose Ben here because I really noticed his jump whenever he was on. Desire to win the puck isn't recorded on the scoresheet, but his play to barge through defender and boards to win a puck early in the first won him a rare dome.

Jeff Halpern
When he was signed, the idea was that he would give Plekanec a bit of a rest. Well, perhaps that hasn't happened yet, but that's not due to any lack of penalty killing prowess. Of the defensive plays tonight, the PK was first and foremost and in pressuring the Canucks point men, Halpern was foremost. His play the rest of the time, in the same vein as Pouliot, was also impressive.

Defencemen

Jaroslav Spacek
Spacek and Hamrlik played a blinder on the Sedins. Two of the hottest scorers of last season and this one were held to 2 shots between them. And despite RDS going on and on to the contrary, they did not look the Canucks biggest threat to me. Spacek again had his slips, but on the whole showed why he is the professional choice for the defence with a credible shielding of Price.

Roman Hamrlik
A blinder, as I mentioned. Hamrlik was my best defender on the evening. When Carey was in need of some calm, it seemed that more often than not, Roman had the puck on his stick. This game, he took the responsibility for it and it showed. The post would not be complete without mention of his pinpoint goal which was provided in glorious juxtaposition with our goalscorers off-kilter aim.

Goaltender

Carey Price - Game Puck
Tobalev must think I'm going soft. All my reports seem to end with a Price Game Puck. This game will look like a stunner for Price in the future, trust me. When all memory of first and second periods are gone and all we have are stats, it will be pulled up as an example of being hung out to dry. Not quite so. Yet that doesn't mean Price wasn't stellar. The thing is, he didn't do it with highlight saves, he did it with synced up play. ON a night where the team did very well together at many elements, Carey fit right in. He let up rebounds when his defenders were near and he didn't when they weren't. He let the puck out when the team was in swing and held it when they needed a break. Just a well thought out effort from what has been a maturing young goalie.

Comments

Beating the Canucks is nothing to sneeze at. Shutting them out is impressive. The game had elements to draw lots of encouragement from: the no-nonsense PK, the even strength balance of play, the play of Carey Price who put to bed a VCR bugaboo (7-1 last time, remember?). But as Habs fans we live to fret, and there's material there for that too. Gomez didn't score (though he did unleash 3 or 4 magnificent unclaimed passes), the 4-minute PP was pathetic, Kostitsyn's early season momentum is being sapped, Lapierre still sucked the life out his linemates and other nitpicking.

It's the luxury of winning that leads to concern over these little things. You know what though? Like that future take on this shutout, all the events of this game will be forgotten but the two points when new stories emerge. Joel Bouchard summed it up nicely when asked about Jacques Martin's concerns: "Would he be concerned about starting Eller given Halak's depart canon?" Well, no he won't, because what he cares about is winning, and he showed it by essentially benching Eller despite him looking great. Winning is what matters to the coach, it should be what matters to the team and its fans. Take this luxury of winning and enjoy it, someone will slump during a losing streak, we can all complain then.

Can Teams Bring Contracts Forward For Reneging?

A few sources today are reporting that the NHL is taking a hard line after Kovalchuk and may investigate a few contracts that they have previously approved.

Among those to be potentially investigated (if you believe any of the claims) would be those of Marian Hossa, Roberto Luongo, Chris Pronger and Marc Savard.

Never mind that the league won't be able to take away the Stanley Cup enabled by their previous soft stance. I prefer to see it in a different way.

If the league is dead set on killing all long-term front-end heavy contracts, let's get serious. What about making Gomez sign a new deal?

After all, he was one of the original new-era 7-year deal boys. His final season is paying him less than half of his first $10 million season.

And what about other teams who may want voided cap hits? Like Philly on Daniel Briere's $6.5 million? Maybe Detroit's rivals would want to investigate Franzen and Zetterberg.

Wouldn't seem fair otherwise, would it?

News and Notes

Not much is happening as summer winds down in Habsland, but there have been a few stories this week that have caught my attention. Let's all keep in mind, however, that these are simply of note since there isn't much else to write about. Here are 3 stories that I thought I'd chime in on.

Habs Get Senator; No not Kovalev

On a day when Kovalev, while playing golf in Montreal, revealed that he still hopes to one day play for the Habs there was another story with a Habs-Senator connection. This one involved our last Stanley Cup winning coach and current RDS flip-flopper: Jacques Demers. Stephen Harper (Canada's Prime Minister for the international readers) appointed Demers to the Senate today along with 8 others. Jacques gladly accepted the position and will join Frank Mahovolich as the voice of the Habs on Parliament Hill. I for one am glad for Jacques as I have always quite liked the man. I'll always remember the Stanley Cup (and the McSorley stick), the RDS commentary, but most of all the courage it took for him to tell the world about his illiteracy. I think that as far as the current Habs go he is the closest thing we have to a true champion (in hockey and in life) and I think he'll do a great job in Ottawa. Whether this is a ploy by Harper to win votes in Quebec or maybe from Habs fans is irrelevant as Demers still managed to top a list that would have surely included other Quebecers. Now, we will still see him on TV (although, less than before) where he will likely be high-fiving Brunet, combing Joel Bouchard's hair and talking about 1993, so we haven't entirely lost him to the Nation's Capital quite yet.

No Big O

You can count me among the disappointed to hear that the Habs have canceled their late November game at Montreal's biggest stadium. I for one was looking forward to a night back in my favorite sports venue, watching my favorite team; I was exited at the prospect of feeling the energy of the concrete-bowl one more time. Can you imagine how loud it would be after a goal? Just think to when the Expos were drawing less than 10,000 fans to a game and it was still the loudest park in the majors. I don't know who had the genius idea to schedule the game during Alouette playoff season, but you need just ask U2 to realize that the old stadium cannot play host to two major events in one weekend. This is pretty poor planning when you think of it as the stadium is vacant 51 weeks a year and the Habs have 20+ Saturday games in a season. To me that would have been the marquee event of the centennial; better than hosting an All-Star game which no cares about, better than having the snooze-fest that is the NHL draft at the Bell Centre and even better than wearing a slightly different shirt for a meaningless game. I hope someone gets on re-scheduling this event as I think it would have been quite the memorable game. Maybe if they can't play there though they could play at Molson Stadium...I am pretty sure the Als won't be needing it.

Team (Robidas) Canada

As you may or may not know most Olympic hockey teams are having camps now or over the next little while. This will serve as the only time these players will be together before the Games themselves. I have been reading mostly about Team Canada and what I read sometimes amuses me. Yesterday the lead article on RDS was about Robidas, not about the other, better, 45 players there, no it was about the worst one, Stephane Robidas. Maybe I am missing something, as afterall I am a Quebecer too, but do people only care about players from their own province on the National Team? The article was questioning whether Robidas may be out of his league and may not make the team. MAY BE??? MAY NOT MAKE THE TEAM??? No kidding, RDS, he is out of his league, he has a hard time cracking the top-4 on a non-playoff team. They can certainly write what they want, about whom they want (as I am doing now), but please, get over yourselves. There are 46 players at this camp and believe it or not the National Team includes players from Ottawa, Toronto and beyond. I guess that article served as a reminder of what I'll have to put up with 82 times this year as I sit through 40 Lapierre, Latendresse and Laraque interviews only to be riveted yet again in the second intermission by the voices of Bruno Gervais, Jason Pominville and Daniel Briere.

All this Olympic talk has made me realize that there are no Habs on this 46-man roster. We couldn't even muster one courtesy spot, but then again who could be there? Am I the only one who thinks that the Habs not having a good Canadian player is a crime? Ya we have Price, Lapierre and Cammelleri, but come on, they are all inferior to the players that are there. Is it time the Habs found an elite Canadian player? Is that what we are missing?

Now, I'll take in one step further and present a little survey. Below is the list of the 46 players who are at the camp and from that list the 23-man roster will likely be selected. There is the chance that a player not on the list plays well enough in the first half of the season to get a spot, (or injuries may play a part) , but our team is more than likely contained within. I have had enough with Captains Canada (ie. Captains 'unable-to-ever-lead-your-team-to-the-playoffs) Doan and Smith and there are a few other relics I can do without. I have made my selections in bold and encourage you all to suggest your rosters. I didn't choose players from outside this group, but please feel free to do so if you have a player (or a few) that you feel strongly about.

Forwards (13 of 25)

Jarome Iginla, Calgary Flames
Simon Gagne, Philadelphia Flyers
Ryan Smyth, Los Angeles Kings
Shane Doan, Phoenix Coyotes
Dany Heatley, Ottawa Senators
Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay Lightning
Rick Nash, Columbus Blue Jackets
Joe Thornton, San Jose Sharks
Martin St. Louis, Tampa Bay Lightning
Jeff Carter, Philadelphia Flyers
Dan Cleary, Detroit Red Wings
Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim Ducks
Milan Lucic, Boston Bruins
Patrick Marleau, San Jose Sharks
Andy McDonald, St. Louis Blues
Brenden Morrow, Dallas Stars
Corey Perry, Anaheim Ducks
Mike Richards, Philadelphia Flyers
Derek Roy, Buffalo Sabres
Patrick Sharp, Chicago Blackhawks
Jason Spezza, Ottawa Senators
Eric Staal, Carolina Hurricanes
Jordan Staal, Pittsburgh Penguins
Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks

Defence (7 of 16)

Chris Pronger, Philadelphia Flyers
Scott Niedermayer, Anaheim Ducks
Jay Bouwmeester, Calgary Flames
Robyn Regehr, Calgary Flames
Dion Phaneuf, Calgary Flames
Francois Beauchemin,Toronto Maple Leafs
Dan Boyle, San Jose Sharks
Brent Burns, Minnesota Wild
Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings
Mike Green, Washington Capitals
Dan Hamhuis, Nashville Predators
Duncan Keith, Chicago Blackhawks
Stephane Robidas, Dallas Stars
Brent Seabrook, Chicago Blackhawks
Marc Staal, New York Rangers
Shea Weber, Nashville Predators

Goaltenders (3 of 5)

Martin Brodeur, New Jersey Devils
Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks
Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins
Steve Mason, Columbus Blue Jackets
Cam Ward, Carolina Hurricanes

Price For Luongo?

A chance at some fun.

Vancouver's not happy with their goalie either. Mike Boone link's to this article from CanWest, which suggests, among other things, trading Luongo for a goalie like (not specifically) Carey Price.

If I was Gainey, I would do this trade. Heck, I'd trade any young goalie (Varlamov, Fleury, Ward) for this guy.

My reasoning is this:

1) Yes, it's true that:

"The winning goaltenders of the Stanley Cup since the last time a "franchise" goaltender - Martin Brodeur in 2003 - backstopped the victorious team have been Khabibulin, Ward, Jean-Sébastien Giguère and Osgood, who has won two Cups already and could make it three this spring. Among the losing finalists' goalies have been Dwayne Roloson and Ray Emery."

However, you have to look at how many franchise goaltenders there even are. Given how few there are, I have a feeling that having someone as good as Luongo (provided you're not as organizationally pathetic as Florida) is probably enough to make the playoffs. He did get 9 shutouts this year (9 wins on his won, that is).

2) We already have Andrei Markov (Vancouver do not). He is signed for two more years and is at his prime. Markov in front of Luongo is better than he is in front of most. Heck, Komisarek might be decent again. Hamrlik would be more reliable. Gorges would probably thrive in an environment where he could afford to slip.

3) Having a franchise goalie fall in your lap is probably better than developing one. Developing a franchise goalie can be painful. He must get starts. He must learn lots. And what you get at the end is probably one contract at his zenith. Sign a guy at his zenith and you get the same thing without the learning. Where's the downside? It costs more, but there's value in being assured at one position like that.


Markov is our core, and he will be for 2 more years (possibly at most). Developing Price for 2/3 more years if it comes off burns those years after which point we have no guarantee of a top-notch defender.

What's more, our prospects are coming up duds, and we'd be lucky to pull a Markov out of the hat there. Fischer might never play a game, let alone be the big dream defender we thought he could be. McDonagh likely won't anchor a team like Chelios, despite the comparisons. That's our best depth, don't even ask about forwards...

Getting a top goalie in now, with Markov, would change our window of contention again. We should (health permtting) be in the game for the deep playoffs again. On top of that, it might actually help the UFA negotiations. Current Habs UFAs might be turned on by the move. League free agents might take notice too.


Chance of this being a straight up trade...

You'd have to think it's very very low. This is a Patrick Roy (not quite) for Jocelyn Thibault deal. Are trades like that made twice?

The chance of either team trading either guy is already miniscule, straight up would be highly unusual. I don't really see many packages sweetening this trade partnership either. It's sheer fantasy really, but is good fun for news-starved fans in the off season.

Carey Price: Thoroughbred In The Gates? Are These Thoroughbred Trends?

As promised, my second post on Carey Price will deal with the question as to whether he is a thoroughbred or not. This piece is not a debate about Halak or Price (that may come later), just the thoroughbred issue.


Carey Price 2008-2009

This season is touted as a season to forget for Carey Price, but I don't think that on the whole is being very fair. I only have to look at my own writings for reminders, like this from the mid-term analysis:

Carey Price: A+
Top ten in multiple categories in NHL rankings, his contribution to the Habs has been undeniable so far. His value to the fan, as we've seen during Halak's reign, is that he positions himself so well and so far ahead of the play that many saves look too easy. Only a year into his career, to be A+ on a 56-point team midway through the season is an impressive feat. Tough tests to come though, no doubt.

But it wasn't 20 minutes of play after that post before Carey began an atrocious stretch of the season that lasted an unacceptable 14 starts and 6 weeks in all. The beginning of the downfall may have been to injury or, if you buy my pet theory, may have been the How-to-score-on-Price seminar, aka the Youngstars game, in January.

His statistics over that 14-start stretch include a 3.91 GAA, an Aebischeresque 0.862 save percentage and a paltry 5 points from a possible 28 for his team. Conversely, the other 38 games look quite acceptable indeed with a 2.46 GAA, a 0.919 save %, with a contender-like 21 wins and 9 OTLs.

Consider also that in the 14-games of putridity he had a save % under 0.900 on 8 occasions, whereas in his first 25 games that only happened on 6 occasions.

As though letting in nearly 4 goals a game weren't bad enough, it was the style in which he did it in the confidence-sapping stretch of the season that killed the team's morale almost completely by early March. It was goals within the first ten shots ten times and within the first five shots on five occasions. It was goals on consecutive opposition shots (3 times). And it was the untimely way he faltered, such as after the team got a lead or clawed back to tie it up.

All of these things happen to Marin Brodeur once in a while (see playoffs 2009) and to the next tier down a little more. And they happen to average goalies for long stretches.

But isn't that the point? Is he or is he not above average? (A thoroughbred does not conjure thoughts of running in the pack) Perhaps more pertinent, do great goalies start as average/below-average goalies (do thoroughbreds)? To get to the bottom of it, I had a look at some nice stats.


Quality shot stats

Anyone who has been watching Carey Price over the last year (starting specifically at the Philadelphia series) must surely have noticed that good shooters with a good amount of time seem to be able to beat him more than we'd like them to. Anyone who gets sight of the top of the net seems to score. Of course, the defence is heavily to blame for letting so many good shooters get so many good shots away, but there comes a point when you have to wonder -- is Umberger a good shot. If he is, who isn't?

From a subjective point of view, once you get this idea in your mind you start seeing what you want to see. That can be a problem if a goalie lets in high shots game after game. Witness Kostadis' point in the comments to the introductory portion of this series. He notes that Carey Price makes plenty of outstanding saves in some games where we end up un-doming him. Usually because we see the eventual gamewinner as a misplay. So a more objective approach is required from someone so tainted as me, stats...


Quality of shot analysis

For this part of the analysis, I sought some evidence of shot quality from statistics to probe the question properly. The first ones I found were the Behind The Net analysis based on shot quality at 5-on-5.

Here Carey proves himself to be better than average (first pleasant surprise). Based on the average ability to save shots form the positions they came from, we should have expected Carey to let in 93 goals (92.7 actuall) on 1027 shots at even strength. In play, he only let in 88 even strength goals - saving 5 goals more than he should have - good news.

I took it a step further to do some save percentage on these numbers. Basically, I calculated how many goals each goalie saved over and above the expected and divided by the number of goals expected. What this gives us is a statistic that I have called clutch saves; it gives some guide as to what's been happening with "clutch" goaltending this season.

Carey's 4.7 goals saved over 92.7 expected goals means he saves 5.1% of shots that he would have no business saving (if he were average). Very good, I thought.

Furthermore, this percentage puts Price about 32nd among goalies who play enough to warrant consideration. If you look at NHL starters, he's 18th. And if you chuck in Varlamov for good measure, Price is 19th.

The top 5 in the league are all still alive in the playoffs:

Tim Thomas (29.2%)
Simeon Varlamov (26.6%)
Roberto Luongo (26.6%)
Nikolai Khabibulin (26.4%)
Jonas Hiller (22.6%)

Others worth noting:

Henrik Lundqvist (20.8%)
Tomas Vokoun (20.7%)
Martin Brodeur (20.5%)
Pekka Rinne (15.5%)
Steve Mason (13.7%)
Jaroslav Halak (13.4%)
Cristobal Huet (13.2%)
Yann Danis (12.3%)
Cam Ward (12.2%)
Marc-Andre Fluery (3.2%)
Chris Osgood (-6.7%)
Mikka Kiprusoff (-10%)

What does this mean?

Well, it means he's average - or at least he was for the enire season.

The problem here is that averages include all goalies who play in the NHL, not just the 30 starters. So when Pogge (worst in the league, btw) steps in an lets up 9 more goals than expected in 7 games, Carey is compared to that. What's more, for me, where he currently sits is not thoroughbred territory - too many thoroughbreds are ahead of him (some almost as young).

His save percentage, though, at even strength is still a plump 0.914, so no decisive knock-down here. Based on this analysis, his toroughbred status hangs on.


Penalty-kill save %

Behind the Net also has a whole raft of other stats if you're that way inclined. For the second look, I decided to show you goalie performance while his team is a man down. The reason I choose this is because the shot quality analysis isn't done for anything but ES, also it seems logical that shots are better set up on the PP than at ES.

These stats offer a bit of a quick and rude awakening for all those people who support Carey's thorough breeding. If you look across the season for the whole league, Carey Price is in fact the worst starter across all teams in terms of save percentage on the PK. On an average of 38.6 shots per 60 minutes of PP time, Carey Price allowed an average of 7.61 goals. That means his save % was a rather embarrassing 0.803 at 4-on-5.

Now, PP shots are harder to save you say. Of course they are. But the average NHL goalie has a save % of 0.852, and that includes every weak link there is (like Mathieu Garon who saves just over 75% of PP shots in 20 games). Some good goalies have low save percentages here (Brodeur, for example at 0.816), but many don't. Thoroughbreds shouln't, I say.

The top 5 starters in the league here are:

Nicklas Backstrom (0.923)
Henrik Lundqvist (0.918)
Martin Biron (0.894)
Simeon Varlamov (0.893)
Tim Thomas (0.888)

Others to note are:

Craig Anderson (0.910)
Jaroslav Halak (0.890)
Mikka Kiprusoff (0.888)
Pekka Rinne (0.887)
Steve Mason (0.870)
Marc-Andre Fleury (0.867)
Cristobal Huet (0.866)
Jonas Hiller (0.862)
Cam Ward (0.862)
Jose Theodore (0.845)
Yann Danis (0.833)
Roberto Luongo (0.833)


What does this mean?

Well not much on its own. If Carey had been Halak-efficient it would have meant a mere 2 goals less. It's not a case on its own, but as things add up, it certainly seems to follow the pattern. It's another hit against the thoroughbred hypothesis.


Giving a chance to win

In response to Kostadis' case that LIW is wrong about Halak > Price (which is not the point of this piece, rather whether Price = thoroughbred), I thought I could take a similar approach.

He claims, that Carey Price gave the Canadiens a chance to win in 33 games of 49 (so 67.3%), whereas Halak only gave them 52.9% chance. I'll start by pointing out neither goalies stats are based on starts, which I thought they should be. Price goes up and so does Halak, with this tweak. Halak, for his part, gave opportunity for wins in 19/33, or 57.6%.

I thought I would look at things a bit closer. For can we really say that a goalie who loses in OT always gives his team a chance to win. In reality, you say, we can. And I concede on that. But for us at Lions in Winter, we generally look at how many goals a goalie allows to decide whether that would allow a win on most nights (i.e., those where his team doesn't win 6-5). While each goalie loses a couple of games this way, this subjective method actually works in the goalie's favour, since games that are lost 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 can be counted as games he gave his team a chance to win.

By this criteria, nothing really changes. But if you get generous and say that 3 GAs is a reasonable amount for a goalie in a league where average GAA is parked in between 2 and 3 year-upon-year, then it gets interesting.

Carey Price, by the 3-goal criteria, actually gave his team a chance to win 73% of the time. And, lo and behold, Jaroslav Halak gave his team a chance to win an incredible 73% of the time. Funny that it would be equal.

By this criteria, Carey has to win. But only against Halak. It doesn't really prove that anyone is or isn't a thoroughbred. After all, no one has ever accused 9th round QMJHL alum Halak of being thoroughly bred. For that we need to look at goalies on other teams - ones that actually win.

Quickly for illustration I looked at Tim Thomas, Roberto Luongo, Cam Ward and Pekka Rinne.

Tim Thomas by the first criteria (W and OTLs) gave his team a chance to win 79.6% of the time. If you guve him the 3 goal benefit of the doubt that's 83.3% of the time.

Roberto Luongo gave 74.1% and 74.1%.

Cam Ward gave 64.7% and 76.5%.

Rinne gave 67.3% and 81.6%.


This is not a random sample, but I think it's a fair group to sample if you want to look at thoroughbreds. While Carey Price and Halak look OK in isolation, in the light of day they don't stack up to Thomas or Rinne. They come close to Luongo, but to be fair to Roberto, he did have 9 shutouts which mean automatic points (not just chance at), both our guys mustered only 1 of those. I think this category shows Carey in a much better light than the other two. What's more, given his age, I think you could argue that giving his team a 73% chance to win is pretty darn goosd. Is it thoroughbred stuff? Let me just say, I'd rather have Rinne based on this season... (is he a thoroughbred?)


One streak to skew all stats

There's a very very solid case to be made that it was all due to one bad streak. But was it just a bad streak? Did 14 games destroy everything? It's a valid argument, I concede.

For me it's about trends, though. If this were the very first slump from Carey Price, then I'm sure it would be water off a ducks back. It's not though, and a responsible scientist like myself has to ask whether the good is the aberration, or the bad. Those of us counting will note that Carey Price has had a few breakdowns since his arrival with the team. To be generous (and a bit facetious) I'll call these non-thoroughbred episodes, or NTEs. The more research-minded among us will note that he also had a pretty long NTE the season following his selection in the first round, not to mention his blow-up in the WHL playoffs that year. So to enumerate the NTEs:

1) 2005-06 Tri-City Americans
2) January 2008 Montreal and Hamilton
3) April 2008 Round 2 Montreal vs. Philadelphia
4) January and February 2009 Montreal (the aforementioned 14 games)
5) April 2009 Round 1 Montreal vs. Boston

That of course allows us to paint every stretch in between as one where the opposite position is held (i.e., a thoroughbred stretch):

1) 2006-07 All teams (Tri-City, Canada, Hamilton)
2) October to December 2007 Montreal
3) February to April 2008 Montreal (including Round 1 vs. Boston)
4) October to December 2008 Montreal
5) March 2009

On balance there are as many good games as bad in there, and most games are probably just adequate or average (less than 3 goals, saving 90% of shots). What we have is a pint glass with half a pint of beer and half a pint of air. If you go for the glass half full approach, you see the Gold medal for Canada the Calder Cup, the end of the 2007-08 season and Round 1 and the very sturdy beginning for this last season. It all adds up for you. The glass half empty perspective notices the floundering in the playoffs, the 14-game stretch to forget and the easy goals, and starts to question whether sub-NHL success will ever be translated.



I've come to the end of this and realise that despite a lot of stats, not much has changed. I haven't proved that Carey Price is not a thoroughbred, nor can we look and say that he is one. I think I would conclude that there is plenty of reason to question whether his progression will be as smoothe as some assure us it will be. I think there's enough evidence to suggest that anyone who says he's not a thoroughbred is at least as sane as someone who purports he is. I think that's all I wanted to do - prove our point of view on this isn't as crazy as some make it out to be.

What I can say with some assurance is that this season he was not a great goalie. On average he was an average goalie. Is that good for 21? I don't know.

I think we'll have to wait and see what happens by next season on this one. Maybe even wait until the next playoff test. Given that Gainey is basing our team around this guy come hell or high water, I'd recommend to anyone that hasn't already dedicated 50 blog pages to this to take the glass half full approach -- it'll be better for your sanity.

The Stack Against Halak

If Jaroslav Halak had it tough last year with Canadiens management ultra-keen to get Carey Price into the starter's role, he should wait to see how he feels a year from now.

As we know the NHL wants to solve all its ills by reducing the padding on goalies. This article from the Vancouver Province, where they have a special interest in over-sized pads (as they've invested heavily in them), tells of the changes to be expected this year and next.

What I want to know is which NHL genius thought of this part:

The big changes are expected next year when the league is expected to go to proportionate sizing for the first time, meaning equipment will be based on goalie's size and weight.

It will have a significant impact on smaller goalies. Consider that currently Curtis Sanford, at five-foot-10, wears the same size pads as Luongo, who is 6-3.

I mean, I know it's tough for big guys now that GMs have fans have realised that they are actually worse at playing hockey, but why do we need to favour them in this way?

Surely, the goal of pad size restriction is to open more of the net for shooters to have a look at. by discouraging the small goalie, won't the change be the inverse?

Though one has to be disappointed in the way this will affect the very talented Halak, Habs fans must also be encouraged by the fact that Timmins and Gainey opted for a huge specimen in the NHL draft this past season in anticipation that he could wear the biggest allowable padding in NHL history.

Get Missiaen eating some serious ice cream guys – the pad size is related to weight too, you know!

The Underappreciated Cristobal Huet (Stats Suite)

In scanning the blogs today, I came across one that I thought looked a bit more unique. Although Cristobal Huet was named one of the NHL's three stars for the month of January, his play has gone largely unheralded for much of the season.


This piece by considerate and well-written blogger T.C. Denault at HabsWorld, is an excellent read and I recommend it. The piece is very complete and considers most of the relevant material (basically a professional job of it); however, I did take the liberty of supplementing it with some stats, here below, to add to the argument myself.

(I should also credit Tobalev on this one, as he has been telling me about these stats for months on end, as a tireless Huet advocate and admirer)


With Huet, we somehow know the guy is good, but perhaps don't appreciate how good. I wanted to add to Denault's piece with some stats I ran this morning on Huet, and some thoughts.

1) T.C. recognises that:

For an idea of Huet’s value this year, consider this; his save percentage is equal to Vancouver’s Roberto Luongo, and is better than some of his more well known contemporaries, such as Martin Brodeur, Evgeni Nabokov, Rick Dipietro, Henrik Lundqvist, Marty Turco, and Dominic Hasek.

But also consider for a minute that Nabokov, Turco and Hasek have never had a better save percentage than Huet over these three seasons. When you add to this the fact that Brodeur, DiPietro, Kiprusoff, Giguere, Vokoun and Lundqvist have only outranked him in this category once, then you can see how well he has been able to do.

In fact, only Roberto Luongo (of all goalies playing enough games to be considered) has outdone Huet in two out of the three seasons including this one. Huet may yet remedy that as he sits one 1/1000th behind the Vancouver goalie at present (.924 vs. .923).


2) Cristobal Huet is one of 13 goalies to post a Save % of greater than .920 over the three seasons. He is one of 9 to maintain this stat at the end of a season. And, he is one of 2 among those who have achieved the feat in the past to be able to achieve that height again this season. The other, of course, is Luongo.

If you indulge the belief that Save % is the true personal statistic for a goalie (best estimate in any case) like I do, this fact is truly impressive. Particularly, because I feel that .920 is a mark of excellence in goalies, just as .900 is a nminimum standard to make an NHL living.


3) Finally, consider that Cristobal Huet has the best cumulative Save % of anyone not named Dan Ellis (only 21 GP), over the past 3 seasons (Top 10 goalies over 3 years of those that have outranked Huet at least once in Save %):

Dan Ellis
41 GA, 540 SA: .924

Cristobal Huet
259 GA, 3384 SA: .923

Nicklas Backstrom
150 GA, 1932 SA: .922

Roberto Luongo
479 GA, 5902 SA: .919

Tomas Vokoun
389 GA, 4777 SA: .919

Martin Brodeur
459 GA, 5505 SA: .917

Tim Thomas
368 GA, 4323 SA: .915

Mikka Kiprusoff
448 GA, 5496 SA: .915

Henrik Lundqvist
383 GA, 4496 SA: .915

Chris Mason
239 GA, 2802 SA: .915

JS Giguere
362 GA, 4228 SA: .914


Finally, it is interesting to consider that one knock on Huet is that his ability to win when things are on the line is questionable.

As we're keeping a better log this year of performances, both objective and subjective, I'd say that's just not true. He has been among the three stars as many times as anyone but Kovalev and Tobalev has picked him as outright player of the game 9 times in 51 opportunities. Furthermore, in games where he has faltered early, his ability to regain composure and "shut the door" so his teammates have a chance to come back has been impressive.

As for big games, we can look to the spring of 2006 as evidence that he has the ability to pull those off. His regular season heroics, where he eventually ended up posting the number one Save % in the league (.929) and taking the Habs into the playoffs all came in pressure games.

Furthermore, he went on to post an impressive .929 Save % again in the playoffs against the number two team and eventual Cup champions (Carolina), who also had the third best offense in the league to that point. Of course I remember the Williams goal that sealed the deal, but one could find similar evidence against any goalie who did not win the Cup in any given year (even Brodeur).

It's for that reason, I can look past the 82nd game of last season now, even though it has taken a while.

Basically, Cristobal has earned his redemption by reproving his worth this season. He has shown us that that Toronto debacle and those 5 losses in Feb 2007 were the anomaly, not his all-star selection, league leading Save % or regular season heroics in 2006. If I'm so bold, I would say that were it not for his injury in February last season, we would have made the playoffs, even with the scoring woes.

You can't pay too much top goaltending of this variety (not when the salary fits under the max salary anyway). And, as a bonus, Huet would be the perfect mentor for any young star goalie coming through, of which we have 2. If I'm Bob Gainey, I do make an effort to re-sign the French goaltender right away. And since Gainey has gone on record as saying there is no policy for not negotiating contracts in the season, I am sure that these discussions have already been broached. Whether Huet is pricing himself out of the Canadiens salary comfort zone is altogether another matter.